BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Relief Well Intersection Version 2 - and Open Thread 2

This thread is being closed. Please comment on http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6846.

This is a second copy of http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6838.

Both Admiral Allen and Kent Wells (audio only no transcript yet) held press conferences Tuesday. The primary focus in both cases was the weather, with the currently approaching storm producing waves that are causing a halt to operations.


Gathering potential storms (National Hurricane Center)

The storm is not seen as being very threatening, to the point that the riser will not be disconnected. However the drill pipe is being withdrawn, a storm packer inserted into the hole, and the riser filled with sea water. As a result, if there is a problem, the drilling rig can release from the well without creating further complications. But it allows a faster recovery if nothing untoward happens.

The relief well had made it 50 ft beyond the casing and has been surveyed. In the next step it will go another 30 ft before a survey, and then (getting closer to the original well) another 15 ft and so forth. At any time it may intersect the well, and so it might be appropriate to explain (as both parties did) what is expected, and where the intersection can occur.

When I had earlier written about the intersection and the injection of the cement into the bottom of the well it was before the well had been killed from the top. The situation at the moment is that the bottom 5,000 ft of the well inside the casing has been filled with cement.

So that if I go back to the original situation at the intended intersection point, what it may well look like at the moment is this:

The vertical gap between the two outer cement linings which (for simplicity) I have shown as very short is actually likely to be a couple of hundred feet long perhaps. The inner cement plug within the production casing stretches several thousand feet above the intersection point.

The bottom of the well is some 800 feet further down the production casing. At the present time the well is being held at 4,200 psi pressure at the BOP to check and see if there are any leaks. Just as an observation when you put that much pressure on that long a solid confined column it will dissipate out to side loading long before it gets down to this depth, so the test does not have that much value in these particular circumstances. As far as testing the integrity of the central cement plug, neither will the negative pressure test which they intend to follow the current positive pressure test with. In this case they will lower the pressure in the well to 2,300 to 3,000 psi, and see if the well makes fluid. Again, because of the length of the cement column in the production casing, that drop in pressure will not extend down to the intersection point (let alone the bottom of the well) and thus won’t provide that much information on the conditions at the reservoir.
(Ed. note - I originally inadvertently wrote concrete rather than cement in this paragraph - mainly because I was thinking of the work we and others have done on distributed loading, which relates more to the concrete lining of shafts, rather than the cement lining of boreholes, but the conclusions are the same - my apologies).

What it will do, however, is provide some information about what might be going on in the annulus and particularly what might be in the gap, and the condition of it before the relief well runs into it. If the integrity of the production casing remains, (except potentially at the bottom of the well) and all the mud and cement flowed down it, and into the formation, then there may be no way for the fluids in this annulus to have escaped the well. (I have colored them an off yellow since we don’t know if they are oil or mud.) If they are the original drilling mud, and the lower cement lining around the production casing has retained enough integrity to seal this zone off from the bottom of the well and the reservoir, then this may even still be the mud used just prior to the cementing of the production casing.

In that case, the well is really already well sealed, although for insurance they will likely pump cement into the well to fill the gap and back up the annulus a few hundred feet with more cement. Doesn’t matter then what the condition of the bottom of the well is – there is no path for fluid to get up the well.

If on the other hand they find some oil in the gap then this could indicate that the cement had lost some integrity, and allowed some oil passage (but then how did it then get into the solid steel pipe of the production casing?) But again, pumping cement into the well to fill the gap will provide a permanent seal without needing to go much distance down into the lower cement lining to assess its condition.

Because the original well could well now be a sealed system then the actual fluid in this section will be determined by looking at what comes back up out of the relief well as it drills into the gap.

There is a caveat to this, however. If there was a massive failure of the lower cement liner down to the reservoir, then when the relief well strikes the gap there will be a path for mud to flow down into the well, pushing the fluid before it down into the reservoir. The mud weight that they are using is a 13.8 ppg mud, and so this should displace down to the reservoir. By monitoring the flow and the pressure it will be possible then to determine the size of the flow channel, and other values. If that happens it might complicate the analysis of what actually is the condition of the bottom of the original well. But the treatment remains the same. Stabilize the well, then inject the cement to form a plug in the gap and back up the annulus, and the well is sealed.

Because of the currently anticipated storm, it is expected that there will be a delay of perhaps a few days more before the intersection occurs, but with the condition of the rock around the well in the unsupported (unlined) section somewhat unknown, it is not going to be possible to accurately predict exactly when that intersection will occur.

Does anyone have any data on this, or on how much oil is being/ has been skimmed in the last days since the cement job was carried out? That will surely show if there is a problem and indicate its size?

With Corexit and an estimated 1% skim rate, I doubt that information is very useful. In any case, I could not find any active skimming operations ongoing. Maybe others will have luck.

If there was enough data to trend it, we could see if it was increasing, stable or decreased, even if it was only 1% of any total leak. It would help to settle any doubts some people may have.

Satellite and radar images show no oil currently on the surface around the wellhead.

I've followed some of the identifiable skimmers on the AIS, and the big skimmers haven't found work to do since around August 1 when the main slick disappeared. The skimming collection total went static around July 20, five days after the hard cap was closed. (Totals are posted on the Response page, under "current ops.") Small vessels have remained active in inshore Louisiana areas, mainly around Breton Sound and Barataria Bay. The small spill at Bayou St. Denis may have sent significant amounts into Barataria Bay.

Thanks Gobbet
How about further afield, say a 10 mile radius to allow for sub surface drift, or is this not reported/ evident on satellite imagery?

If there is no new oil at the surface, and skimmers are not skimming, then any natural or residual leakage ongoing is not likely to be a major cause for concern IMHO.

The images show the whole region affected by the spill. Surface oil is pretty much gone.

Moments before the thread closed just now, beachmommy posted an almost-interminable comment revealing Fintan Dunne as an artiste de BS. While scamster-busting is entirely righteous, mommy, quoting entire posts or articles (especially ones of great length) is a no-no for both legal and blog-etiquette reasons, so please don't do that again. A link and just enough excerpted text to give the gist (or a highlight or two) is what we need. Any more than that could bring TOD a cease-and-desist letter (or worse) under the Fair Use Doctrine, and it certainly discourages some who might otherwise be tempted to read the whole source document.

(Beyond the legal ramifications, this is psychologically parallel to the theory fact of seduction that a teasing glimpse of, say, toesies is more enticing than full-body buck-nekkidness. You know?)

lotus - So true. And you should see what I Photoshopped onto mummsie's blue toes.

The other day when she shot that photo of a bikini clad woman I thought it was her. I was about to drive to Pensacola and look for her. LOL. She just didn't know, I was guilty of the same thing once. Appreciate the heads up.

TinFoil

The other day when she shot that photo of a bikini clad woman I thought it was her

Some of us know the truth, but I shall never tell.

I admit having looked longer at bikini lady than a guy my age ought to. Sigh. Aging is a bummer.

I admit having looked longer at bikini lady than a guy my age ought to. Sigh. Aging is a bummer.

Well, if it makes you feel any better, Pink, I did too. In my case, the bummer is these dang cataracts that mean I gotta peer a bit longer to recognize things than I used to. Grump.

I may be old, but I ain't dead. :)

Sigh. Aging is a bummer.

A geezer even more geezerly than me once said "Son, getting old is not for sissies!"

A geezer even more geezerly than me once said "Son, getting old is not for sissies!"

Attributed to Bette Davis, no less.
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000012/bio
(See Personal Quotes.)

Never heard that one, AGeo, but I'm adopting it as my motto forthwith.

Considering the alternatives.....I'm going to go with getting old, but I have always heard "when you quit looking you might as wel be dead" and "it's ok to look at the menu, just don't sample"

Another way of putting it is: "If you are only going to read the menu, you might as well go to the best places!" ;-)

Oh, I like that one. Will footnote ya when I use it, AK_geo.

I admit having looked longer at bikini lady than a guy my age ought to.

We were created to enjoy the difference. There is no possible reason to stop looking other than death.

Ah TFHG~I will fess up to knowing her .....I am the worst at c/p articles sometimes, but worse than that I forget the links. It has been crazy so I am going to blame it on that, been working on a trade of 30mm bonds since Tuesday, the mkt keeps moving and everytime I get the go ahead, the damn bonds have traded so I posted in haste. I do appreciate the heads up, and now wonder if Rockman photoshopped BBIC on my toesies:)

Shouldn't do this, but...

When I was in my 20s, I only admired women of the same age. In my 30s, ditto. Pushing 50 now, and I think the most beautiful women walking the planet are in their 40s. Extrapolating from that, I am disturbed that I will find a women in her 70s attractive. Though, we all know of some 50 and 60 year old hotties...

I am on campus a lot, and I never look at the kids, but some of the instructors... wooo. Smokin!

You mean TOD doesn't stand for "Toes on Demand" ?? ;-)

You lot are just weird, ya know it?

You mean TOD doesn't stand for "Toes on Demand" ?? ;-)

(looks sadly at own somewhat battered, unmanicured toes)

Thought you were a married man, Rockman

lotus: Good point and well taken. Blue has always been my favorite color though. Heh! Heh!

Thought that was a scallop with five eyes.

Run across some weird scallops in your line o' work, do ya, NRD?

(Mmmm, s c a l l o p s . . . )

lotus: I know, huh. My son said he was getting some very nice ones at the restaurant where he works. Six critters to a pound. I was drooling as he touted them!

Very heaven, GWS.

Limited extracts OK, full quotes a no no unless under a permissive license such as appropriate copyleft. Still, I have to ignore a blogger who cannot spell Lambert let alone who ignores the fact that the ROVs are using Universal Transverse Mercator. A question for our geographical bods, does the translation of co-ordinates into Lambert do anything that the CT guys are latching onto? Lambert seems to be cropping up a lot in the last week.

NAOM

I've been wanting to take some time to actually plot all the coordinates in question (transposed numbers included for comparison), but haven't gotten around to it. But in the meantime, it may be helpful to know that a datum shift between NAD27 AND NAD83 can present some huge errors if not handled correctly. 300 feet of error is definitely possible in some parts of the continent. [EDIT: such datum shifts are common errors when switching between coordinate systems, such as Lambert and UTM]

But in the meantime, it may be helpful to know that a datum shift between NAD27 AND NAD83 can present some huge errors if not handled correctly. 300 feet of error is definitely possible in some parts of the continent. [EDIT: such datum shifts are common errors when switching between coordinate systems, such as Lambert and UTM]

That's why I'm wondering if they are deliberately obfuscating the co-ordinates to make it look like the ROVs are at another site.

NAOM

I just reviewed part of the Initial Exploration Plan that is the source of the coordinates in question. The same coordinates are listed a few times in the document, once in Lambert, twice in UTM. I'm chuckling now, guess this little exercise will be a little more work than I expected ;) I did see the UTM coordinates are in NAD27. Anyone happen to know what datum the ROVs are working in? Thanks.

Be worth checking the offset,in that part of the world between NAD27 and NAD83.

NAOM

This article discusses surveying in the GOM and states that there is approximately 30m difference between NAD27 and NAD83, depending on location.

http://www.hydro-international.com/issues/articles/id826-Surveying_the_G...

The article also says the petroleum industry mainly uses NAD27.

Yike!!! That is how to get really confused with style. So many potential points of error, different feet even! Wonder how much the well location would move if that mistake was made.

NAOM

EDIT: I hope the bureau plans to move away from 3 1/2" floppies.

Ha-Ha :)

The US Constitution says that copyrights and patents shall have the same term of protection. But Disney didn't like it, and legislators know where the money is, and lawyers and judges don't invent, they write. So copyrights have a term of life of the author plus seventy years and patents get twenty years at most.

NAOM, I hope I can figure out what "copyleft" means.

IMVHO, a small sin, easily forgiven in the pursuit of scamster-busting. "Go, my child, and sin no more!" (until the next time ;-)

"Artiste de BS" -- I like that as a term.

PS to beachmommy: Speaking of toesies, I hope you caught this YouTube a couple of days ago (I put it into a reply to someone else -- which I can't find now -- but was really bringing it for you).

My bad Lotus, I am at work and saw it on a CT page and out of laziness just copied everything and then the link (half the time I even forget that).....I noticed he had BKLim's article, and had no copywright or any other disclaimer at the bottom after I went back to look at the site when I read your post, I usually see some sort of a disclaimer that states do not reproduce etc., Also, I couldn't delete the post as the comments are closed, so if TOD thinks it would be best pls delete. I just though it was interesting how he popped on here and the CT sites within a day but I do apologize again and next time promise just a link and the "toesies" for a more seductive, teasing post.

You're a good sport, mommy.

I have to be lotus, my job is 99.5% male and you learn early on to be a good sport among a long list of other things I won't get into. I did see the youtube, never in my life would consider anyone would try to give a possum a ped (Although I could use one myself)!

Heh, gmf.

I know, that "senior" of hers must be the most laid-back possum the world has ever known. Did you see her massage, tooth-brushing, and gourmet dinner too?

Sharp teeth on them thangs!

Let's take a breath here and summarise what we have.
The static kill put a lot of cement into the production casing (liner). Some went into the formation; some may have been squeezed into the annulus between the production casing and the well bore casing.
The production casing is locked to the well head with a seal assembly. The integrity of this seal is in question according to the Admiral. The seal is part of the production casing hanger assembly located at the well head. I am not sure but, I think this hanger has a lock down collar fitted to stop it being lifted off its seating by a well pressure kick ???.
The production casing - the inner tube of all the tubes - has some hundreds of feet ??? of cement in it. Some cement went into the oil formation and some, I suggest, may have gone up the outside of the well bore casing _ the outer tube of all the tubes - if there was a channel for it to go through the rock bore.
The original drill pipe is hanging from the BOP valves to a depth of 8000 feet ??? The static kill may or may not have put cement into the drill pipe. It depends if the crimped end of it has a route back to the kill line on the BOP - which valves are open or shut below the capping stack ???
The annulus surrounding the production casing may be full of a liquid or a gas; and some cement. If we assume the hanger seal is still good; would it make sense to drill into the annulus, high up nearer the surface (mud-line); with the relief well; prepare for a gas pressure; hold it and; fill, under gravity, the whole f*****g annulus with cement. The cement will either go into the formation; up the production casing or into the gap outside the well bore. Squeezing the annulus space no longer a problem. Discuss; marks will be given for innovative solutions. All the best :-)

Acorn -- Not 100% sure but I think no lock down collar...an early criticism. Otherwise I have a similar jumble view as you. Not as many "what if's" as before but still a few important ones left IMHO.

Rockman

Pretty sure people were on board to do the lockdown collar, but I don't think they got to it. At the Coastguard inquiry, they stated they had made up the tool string to do the lead impression and were getting ready once the well was circulated with seawater and they were sure locking collar was clean. Thats to the best of my recollection anyway.

A lockdown sleeve was not installed, according to a 6/14/10 letter to Tony Hayward from Waxman's Committee on Energy and Commerce. I remember this also being mentioned in a Transocean report.

What is curious to me is why they hung the 16-in. casing (which I think you refer to as the wellbore casing) as a liner with in the 22-in. instead of in the wellhead. As Berman pointed out earlier, if pressure was able to get outside of the 7 x 9 7/8-in production string (actually, not a liner) it would have access to the 22-in. casing above the 16 x 22 liner hanger.

Hi Acornus, I've had a stab below in italics:

Let's take a breath here and summarise what we have.
The static kill put a lot of cement into the production casing (liner). casing yes, liner is not the correct word here. Some went into the formation; some may have been squeezed into the annulus between the production casing and the well bore casing. Not quite - actually the annulus between the production casing and the rock face of the open hole
The production casing is locked to the well head with a seal assembly. The integrity of this seal is in question according to the Admiral. The seal is part of the production casing hanger assembly located at the well head. I am not sure but, I think this hanger has a lock down collar fitted to stop it being lifted off its seating by a well pressure kick ???. Yes. In fact as I understand it, simply latching the casing hanger into its profile in the wellhead already provides a lot of seal capacity. The lock down ring (missing in the case of Macondo, planned to be installed later) provides additional security.
The production casing - the inner tube of all the tubes - has some hundreds of feet ??? of cement in it. Yes apparently around 5000 ft. Some cement went into the oil formation and some, I suggest, may have gone up the outside of the well bore casing _ the outer tube of all the tubes - if there was a channel for it to go through the rock bore.The 200 bbl that exited the bottom of the production casing would have been enough to make it up past the previous casing shoe (the 9 7/8) and into the space between casings, and if there were no losses to the formation, then yes there could now be overlap between the annular cement and the previous casing string. This is rather hard to imagine because the cement is being pumped into a closed system and the annular pressure would presumably rise towards leak off pressure quite rapidly, and the fracture gradient is thought to be as low as 13.5 ppg.
The original drill pipe is hanging from the BOP valves to a depth of 8000 feet ??? 8000ft from sea level originally and so 3000 ft below the BOP. The static kill may or may not have put cement into the drill pipe. It depends if the crimped end of it has a route back to the kill line on the BOP - which valves are open or shut below the capping stack ??? yup.
The annulus surrounding the production casing may be full of a liquid or a gas; and some cement. If we assume the hanger seal is still good; would it make sense to drill into the annulus, high up nearer the surface (mud-line); with the relief well; prepare for a gas pressure; hold it and; fill, under gravity, the whole f*****g annulus with cement. No - among other things the relief well would have to penetrate all of the other casing strings to reach the production casing annulus.The cement will either go into the formation; up the production casing or into the gap outside the well bore. Squeezing the annulus space no longer a problem. Discuss; marks will be given for innovative solutions. All the best :-)

Sounds kind of crazy, but could it have u-turned through a bad or blown liner hanger seal?

Here’s perhaps the best yet popular article on transport & fate of BP DWH spilled oil:
http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2302
not perfect but helpful. Especially good on the comparison with Ixtoc. I posted short comments there.

Yes, very good overview, NRD -- thanks for the link.

The only real news to me: "Some science suggests the sustained exposure to low concentrations of oil and oil byproducts in water or other environments can affect the growth of fish. A paper co-authored by Oceana’s Jeff Short concluded that pink salmon embryos were harmed by proximity to extremely low concentrations of weathered oil and its byproducts on gravel or other media."

Wish he'd expanded a bit more on that.

I noticed that too, but "pink salmon" raised a question mark. This refers to Heintz et al. 1999, Sensitivity of fish embryos to weathered crude oil: Part II ... downstream from weathered Exxon Valdex crude oil. Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry 18:494-503. It's a fine study, but although the authors called this oil "weathered", it was apparently (from info they didn't present or cite) actually very poorly weathered, was trapped under very cold water in deep beach cobble, and leaked out for many years, with very serious ongoing toxic effects on salmon, sea otters, and many other kinds of sea life (these effects are thoroughly documented--see Riki Ott's first book for an exhaustive summary). There's a similar study by Carls et al. 1999, same journal, on larval Pacific herring.

Comparison of such studies to the Gulf situation probably will be very misleading. I am not a toxicologist, and the subject is very complicated, thus dangerous for a non-specialist to properly represent. Here are a couple of starting points (in the public domain, see google).

An oldie but goodie: Eisler, 1987, Polyaromatic aromatic hydrocarbon hazards to fish, wildlife, and invertebrates: a synoptic review. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 85(1.11).

Somthing relatively simple on composition of crude oil: EPA, 2002, Appendix 6A. Composition of Crude Oil and Refined Products, 9 pages.

I have not seen any such toxicological studies in an environment like the warm Gulf of Mexico. But this certainly shows why we need to see the data on weathering of the BP DWH spilled oil!

NRD: So glad to hear the rainbows and browns in the Madison and Bighole rivers are gonna be ok next week!! Gotta figure out what hatch is going on and tie accordingly!

GW- I can't explain it Mr. Ranger, sir. These danged flies I just tied just started catching worms. Heck, I got tub full in the last few minutes.I've been keeping them for you to analyze back at your office, sir. Just doing my part, sir. Oh, those fish? Nice ones, eh? Caught 'em early this morning long before the worms started biting.

... good luck. :)

Thanks, man. It,s just a hell of a thing how that happens, now aint it!!! Even the grasshoppers with neon green legs and pink bodies catch worms, sometimes!! Silly worms.

"I have not seen any such toxicological studies in an environment like the warm Gulf of Mexico."

In this study are a lot of data :

TOXICITY OF SOUTH LOUISIANA CRUDE OIL, ALASKAN
NORTH SLOPE CRUDE OIL AND DISPERSANT COREXIT 9500
TO GULF KILLIFISH, WHITE SHRIMP, AND EASTERN OYSTER

http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-1113103-122552/unrestricted/Liu_th...

Can't edit, but if anyone's doing a googel search, please edit Polyaromatic to read "Polycyclic." Duh, me.

This article repeats the same mistake that all the other articles make, interpreting the government's oil budget as saying "74% of the oil is gone." Given that the oil budget report was unintelligible, that was a forgivable mistake, but you'd hope somebody would have noted Jane Lubcheco's correction. She said more than 50% of the oil is gone, but they don't know how much. (Those percentages are based on amount flowed, including captured, not on amount spilled.)

I was interested in the linked article's oil budget for Ixtoc:

50% evaporated
12% bio- or photo-degraded (seems surprisingly low)
25% sank
7% landed.

50% evaporated won't happen here, because the deep-water release led to dispersion and the dissolving of some of the light fractions in the water column. In an article I linked yesterday, Joye estimated only 10% evaporated. Again that might be including the captured oil in the total, a constant source of confusion for reporters.

Tar--the article reports a shrinkage rate of Ixtoc tar deposits that suggests a half-life of around 10 years. Asphaltenes in typical LSL crude are 5%. I wish we had an an assay of fresh Macando crude--only weathered samples have been tested. Will 5-10% of the spilled oil be reduced to tar?

I read what seems to be the author's main source for the Ixtoc material (Jernelov and Linden, 1981). More on Ixtoc:

--Oil was substantially dispersed and emulsified by the turbulent, gassy release.

--They sprayed lots of Corexit on the Ixtoc spill, around 2.5 million gallons.

--Skimming was ineffective even though, in relatively shallow water, they tried to maintain a corral with barges and booms. Only an estimated 4-5% of the spill was skimmed.

--Low rate of biodegradation (est. 12%) may be attributed to shortage of nutrients which are more abundant in the northern Gulf.

--High rate of oil sunk to the bottom (25%) was explained this way:
(a) weathered oil in the surf collects sediment that makes it denser than water.
(b) zooplankton ingest weathering oil droplets with bacteria attached and excrete it in fecal pellets that are denser than water.

Gob, do you have any idea why nutrients are more lush farther north? Kind of a surprise.

Mr. River picks them up from

GA, NC, VA, WV, PA, NY
AL, TN, KY, OH
IN, IL, WI
AR, MO, IA, MN
TX, KS, NE, SD, ND
OK, CO, WY, MT
etc.

and delivers them to LA.

Ah, that occurred to me as the reason after I asked. Any idea how much of the upper Gulf Mr R affects measurably?

All the way from NY, huh? Woo.

A little bit of far-western New York drains into the Allegheny River, I'm pretty sure. I have a terrible map fetish.

I don't know how much of the Gulf is affected significantly, but the summer dead zone from over-nourishment stretches from off Mobile well into Texas waters.

How far south?

(Map fetish: good.)

The seasonal dead zone is banded along the LA coast to not much farther out than the Bird's Foot projects; then there's another blob off AL and MS. This latter could be what Ben Raines showed us in his dive video of an oil platform.

Thanks.

And a very minute amount from NM via Arkansas River.

And probably the Canadian.

A question for enterprising reporters: Is it true the US Department of Justice has instructed federal scientists not to publish their research results on the oil spill until all relevant federal legal actions are settled? If so, what are the implications for our understanding of disposition and effects of the spilled oil?

Was told this by federal scientists. Wondering if the terms of reference are more forgiving than what I heard.

The most recent data on analytical chemistry of Gulf spill samples is from the Brooks McCall cruise on 30-May-10
http://www.noaa.gov/sciencemissions/bpoilspill.html
but there’s no interpretation or repeated measures over time to give insight on the course of the weathering process.

If the federal data won’t be forthcoming in the near term, perhaps state agencies will report something. It may be worth browsing for state research reports at
http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/
http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/default.htm
(I didn't see anything at http://adem.alabama.gov/newsEvents/publications.cnt)

Ironic that the BP-funded Brooks McCall cruise is forthcoming with data, while the government ones are not. However, as we know, BP is signing up researchers to do work that won't be made known unless it's in BP's interest. Repeating myself here, but it's a shame that the government has this conflict of interest between a duty to inform the public and a duty to fight BP in court. I can see a reason for the (probable) high-balling of flow rates, but I don't see why they shouldn't release raw data on water samples.

[edit: Oops, I see that NOAA does have raw data from various cruises posted on their site.]

I think the number one reason the government is not releasing their findings is they are protecting BP as long as possible.

Even Obama has stated he does not want BP to go bankrupt.

Bad news and the stock goes down.

It is criminal this scam keeps going on.

If the federal data won’t be forthcoming in the near term, perhaps state agencies will report something. It may be worth browsing for state research reports

Don't count on it unless John Q. Public goes on the rampage. Although if things keep going the way they have been, that's a possibility. I never thought I'd see this happen in the United States, even with my experience of the world of academe. The op-ed writer below apparently is firing the first shot over the bows of the opposition. If you do not care to register at the site, the two excerpts from her detailed article will give you the gist of her arguments. What good is research if it can't be published? And those of you who have published, know exactly what I'm talking about. $$$

http://www.the-scientist.com/templates/trackable/display/news.jsp?type=n...

"...In southern Alabama back in late May, my PhD student's ant samples were taken away by a US Fish and Wildlife officer at a publicly accessible state Wildlife Management Area because our project hadn't been approved by Incident Command (also called the Deepwater Horizon Response Unified Command -- which is a joint program of BP and federal agencies, such as the Coast Guard, the Department of the Interior, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, assembled to respond to problems related to the April 20 blowout).
...If I were to agree to submit my data, thus officially participating in NRDA, I would be required to sign a confidentiality agreement that lacks an officially specified end date. Exactly when my students or I would be able to publish any results from this research would be determined by the Department of Justice (DOJ), which would make that decision based on the status of a civil suit brought against BP. Were I to accept research funding directly from BP or from one of their contractors, I'd have to sign a contract that includes a three-year no publication clause. If I signed either a contract to work with NRDA or to work under BP or one of their contractors, I would have virtually unlimited access to study sites and more research support."

I'm puzzling to come up with what might make this defensible behavior, k3d59. So far, I got bupkis.

NatResDr asked :
"Is it true the US Department of Justice has instructed federal scientists not to publish their research results on the oil spill until all relevant federal legal actions are settled?"

I think, this article from Linda Hooper-Bui answers your question :

http://www.librarything.com/topic/96328

Linda Hooper-Bui is an ecosystem biologist at Louisiana State University A&M and the LSU Agricultural Center.
She wrote :

"We are independent scientists who want to honestly and independently examine the effects of the oil spill.
But I am having trouble conducting my research without signing confidentiality agreements or agreeing to other conditions that restrict my ability to tell a robust and truthful scientific story.

I won't collect data specifically to support the government's lawsuit against BP nor will I collect data only to be used in BP's defense.
But because I choose not to work for BP's consultants or NRDA, my job is difficult and access to study sites is limited.

Some Gulf scientists have already been snatched up by corporate consulting companies with offers of $250/hour. Others are badgered for their data by governmental agencies. Some of us desire to conduct our work without lawyers, government officials, or corporate officers peering over our shoulders. In the end, it may be the independent, non-biased researchers who can deliver credible scientific results that perform the crucial function of assessing the damage wrought by this disaster...if we survive professionally.

If I were to agree to submit my data, thus officially participating in NRDA, I would be required to sign a confidentiality agreement that lacks an officially specified end date.
Exactly when my students or I would be able to publish any results from this research would be determined by the Department of Justice (DOJ), which would make that decision based on the status of a civil suit brought against BP.
Were I to accept research funding directly from BP or from one of their contractors, I'd have to sign a contract that includes a three-year no publication clause.
If I signed either a contract to work with NRDA or to work under BP or one of their contractors, I would have virtually unlimited access to study sites and more research support.

Tuttle said that the agreement prevents signees from releasing information from studies and findings until authorized by the Department of Justice at some later and unspecified date.
"This is a civil lawsuit (against BP)," Tuttle said. "We are protecting our interests and our case.

If current trends continue, I fear that the independent researcher may be added to the list of species that will be endangered by this ecological disaster.

Rockman-Anyone

newbe to posting but have been lurking 90+ days

My question is can anyone explain in simple terms what casing tieback is all about. I tried to research it and it is confusing me. All of the equipment used to place seems very complicated to my pea sized brain! Thanks

lab - It might confuse many because it's about a simple as it sounds. I drill a well to 15,000'. My last liner was set at 12,000'. It is hanging from my surface csg set at 4,000'. Didn't find any oil/NG in that last 3,000' of hole but I do have a nice oil sand at 11,000'. So I set my cmt plug in the bottom the csg at 12,000'. I now take a new 4,000' section of csg the same size as my liner set between 4,000' and 12,000'. I attach this new csg into the top of my liner at 4,000'. I have now "tied back" my last liner to the surface, which by definition, makes it my production csg.

This is a common criticism of the BP csg design (http://www.energy.gov/open/documents/3.1_Item_2_Macondo_Well_07_Jun_1900...). Instead of running production csg from the bottom of the well to the well head many operators would have run just a liner over the last section of the BP well and cmtd it in place. This would have isolated the annulus both above and below the oil reservoir. Having done that they would tie back that liner to the surface. This way there would be only one path for the oil to the surface: up the inside of the tied back liner (now called the production csg). They then could have set an addition csg cast iron plug or another cmt plug in the bottom of the csg to make sure this potential flow path was eliminated. At least this is what I believe Shell Oil and a few others said to Congress they would have done as a safety factor.

Thanks Rockman!

That all makes sense to me now. Isolation it could have provided an extra layer of protection and eliminated much of the confusion with the negative test results if cemented properly... correct?

lab -- Mucho correct. Like the line about real estate: Location, location, location. In completing a well it's all about isolation, isolation, isolation. The vast majority of completion/production problems I've seen resulted from inadequate reservoir isolation

BP Agrees To Pay $50M In Fines Over Fatal '05 Texas Refinery Explosion

Fiddy mil here, fiddy mil there . . . if not the execs, looks like the shareholders would get tired of this before long.

I am a little confused as to the current pressure state of the system.

There was a photo published that perhaps indavertantly showed the pressure plots for the static kill procedure on a large wall screen. It showed all the pressures going to local ambient, or even a little below (~2250 psia). It was widely interpreted to mean the well was killed, i.e. there was no need for additional pressure supplied to the system to keep the well from flowing up.

Now there is widespread reports of the system being kept at 4200 psia. This doesn't make sense to me, since ALL the pressures were taken to local zero once the "mud" was put in. Do they intend to keep the well pressurized until the relief wells intersect the main annulus? What is the purpose of the continuting pressure? If the cement has set properly, should they not do a pressure test forward and back and decide if the well is, in fact, sealed? If it is sealed, why drill into the annulus at all?

Lotus, regarding your comment on the previous thread:
"Hi, ruby. Dunno but I bet $5 that Vogelsang's talking about that small blowout just offshore Grand Isle (wasn't it?) the other day."

Are you talking about the blowout in the sugar cane field--isn't that inland? Is there another blowout offshore?

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/100503199.html

Are you talking about the blowout in the sugar cane field

Huh-uh, ruby, the one in Bayou St. Denis (thanks, Gobbet, for the reminder) a few days -- possibly two weeks -- ago. A jack-up rig blew out, very close to land in the aerial photos. Check NOLA.com's archives, but I think they may have used some Corexit there. Kinda lost track, so I don't know whether they've killed it by now.

lotus, it looks like that one began to leak July 27 and was capped Aug 2.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38522784/ns/us_news-environment

But this new one, we will have to watch for developments. Looks like a BOP failed again.

Thanks for the update, ruby. Yeah, these dang BOPs are beginning to seem not-worth-the-paper-they're-printed-on, huh? As Rockman said yesterday, it's hard to believe any driller would be so careless as to have to activate a BOP these days. (She said, as if she suddenly knew what she's talking about. Heh.)

Was not that a well head PandA`d hit by a barge that was dredging, hired by the Coast Guard?

Dimitry,

If you are referring to this photo it looks like the points connected by lines are predicted pressures from a model, based on different scenarios for the flow path, as noted in the legend at the right. The closely spaced symbols at the left of the graph are more likely to be actual data from two different pressure sensors. Under this interpretation, the data ends after 350 barrels were pumped. Would be interesting to see the rest of the data.

Oh...

So the internal pressurs never went to zero?

Well, this is only speculation, and you should note that none of the wise and/or experienced people have chosen to comment on this graph, so maybe its not worth trying to interpret the uninterpretable.

To me it looks like they snapped the photo early during the static top kill procedure, when only about 350 barrels of 13.2 pounds per barrel (gotta love them idiosyncratic units) mud had been pumped and the pressure was still between 5000 and 6000 psi. The projected lines show the predicted pressure dropping below 2000 psi, then jumping back up to 3700 psi. The pressure jump presumably would happen when the mud reached the bottom and the flow stopped, at which time the pressure at the capping stack would be the pressure exerted by the 5000 foot head of 13.2 psi mud, which Rockman & others have calculated to be about this much. Recently, Kurt Wells has mentioned that they have been maintaining a slightly higher pressure (4200 psi). You'll have to get someone who knows the details to comment on how they do that.

Hi Dimitry,

I didn't quite get those plots either at first.

They were pumping 13.2 ppg mud at 5 b/min. The start point prior to pumping was around 7000psi at the BOP, perfectly balanced with reservoir pressure at, say, 10200 psi at the base of the well. When they opened the choke valve to surface they would have seen about 5000 psi at the boat (base oil in the line following the injectivity test).

Their plot looked like this :

The simulated pressures actually got as low as 1900psi in all cases, prior to rising to around 3800 psi. I think the ambient pressure line you were talking about was just a reference line; there are 2 of them, one for a brine hydrostatic in the lines to surface, and one for 6.6ppg base oil. I'm not really sure why they are there.

My interpretation would be :

- pressure at BOP starts at 7000psi plus whatever delta-P required to overcome any frictional losses and provide injection overbalance (both probably minimal)
- pressure slowly reduces at the BOP as reservoir fluid is re-injected into the formation and is replaced in the casing by the denser mud (but pressure slowly increases downhole as the head gets larger).
- at some point the increase in head is enough to overbalance the reservoir by the amount required to inject oil at the required rate without application of surface pressure at the boat. The mud is flowing into the well on its own, and pressure at the BOP can drop very low
- at the moment that the mud reaches the reservoir, the injection characteristics change; either the mud begins to form a filter cake and pressures have to spike to keep injecting at 5 b/min, or the pressures spike due to change in the viscosity of the injected fluid (now mud not oil), or some similar process
- this causes the rise in BOP pressure back up to 3900 psi

Its not clear to me what happened when they stopped pumping; there must have been a filter cake of sorts otherwise the mud loss would have been very large (the overbalance at 13.2 ppg to surface is more than 2000 psi). Wells said they were topping up at 300 b/d. If true then the well was 'relatively' static and you'd expect around 3400 psi at the BOP for zero pressure at the boat.

They have of course now cemented the well. Again, if static and with 13.2 ppg mud in the lines to surface the pressure should be around 3400 psi. It is only reported at 4200 psi because they are maintaining a positive pressure with the mud pumps. This may have been to test for leak paths initially, but the reasons for maintaining it are not clear to me.

Thanks, bignerd, I was typing when you posted. I would not want to imply that you were unwise or inexperienced. ;-)

A few days ago Admiral Allen made the following statement:

"Sure, there's a very low probability that we might have actually sealed the annulus with the cement that came down the pipe casing and came back up around it. What we want to do is understand whether or not there's what we call free communication. In other words whether there, the hydrocarbons in the reservoir can actually come up through the annulus outside the casing, if that's the case when we go in and we drill in we put the mud and cement we're just going to drive that down and seal the well. OK? If there's cement there and there's no communication that means we have what we call stagnate oil trapped around that casing up to the well head. If you go in and you start pumping mud and cement in there the chances are you could raise the pressure and push that up into the blow out preventer. And that's a very low possibility, low probability event but we want to, we want to test the pressure in the blow out preventer and see if we actually have pressure coming up that would indicate that we have free communication with the reservoir. If not that would change our tactics and how we do the final kill."

Subsequently my understanding was that there was confirmation that they had pressure, that they had "communication" with the reservoir. This appears to mean, to my untrained eye, that the static kill has, effectively, failed. Further, it appears that the "static kill" has also complicated the problems associated with the relief wells, causing numerous delays.

Can someone with more industry know-how explain what might be going on here? Because, as usual, BP appears to be both lying out their asses and covering up their asses at the same time. I am really sick and tired of BP's dog and pony show of lies and misdirections, especially with the latest revelations of MORE foulups at the Texas City refinery (AGAIN!!!).

This appears to mean, to my untrained eye, that the static kill has, effectively, failed. Further, it appears that the "static kill" has also complicated the problems associated with the relief wells, causing numerous delays.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The static kill did what it did. It sent mud and then cement down the production casing. That means oil can no longer flow up the production casing and out the defective BOP like it did for almost 3 mos.

Prior to the blow out on April 20 the annulus (the space between the production casing and the outer well liner) was supposed to be isolated from the reservoir by cement (assuming the cement did its job). If nothing changed then it still is. But there is no way to know that since there is no direct way to test what is in the annulus or how much pressure it contains. If nothing has changed then the annulus is hydro-statically balanced with mud and sealed off at the bottom with about 800 feet of cement that separates it from the reservoir.

When the intercept with the relief well (maybe next week) they will connect with the annulus and find out what is going on in that part of the well. They now say they are going to conduct a test that may or may not give them some advance information of what they will find.

Grey -- Not sure but I think I know what might be confusing: If you're expecting any pressure measured anywhere in the sytem to be zero you will always be disappointed. If there were 13,000' of cmt completely filling the csg the pressure at the bottom of the well will be almost 12,000 psi (the pressure in the rock at that depth). And the pressure in the BOP while the riser is still attached will be over 3,200 psi. Even after the riser is removed and the BOP is just sitting on the sea floor with the well completely plugged the pressure in the BOP will be 2,300 psi (the pessure of the water column). There is no such natural condition as zero pressure below the surface of the earth. The pressure at the bottom of a 100' deep fresh water lake is around 40 psi.

But I'm not arguing the cmt job is leaking or not. Just describing the pressure regimes we're looking at.

Not sure if been posted already:

http://motherjones.com/environment/2010/09/bp-ocean-cover-up?page=1

Kind of a different take on the effects of the spill than "marshes are green again" stories appearing in the MSM.

Hi, Dimitry. Our pal Swift Loris has some cherce words for that one.

I hadn't clicked through to it before, but it has enough info to invite further investigation, so I'll actually go read a bit now (though on notice that it's somewhat hinky).

He don't seem to like it!

Well, there were those "scientists" in the 50s who went on TV to serve some currently banned pesticide in a meal to their families, just to show "simple folk" that there was nothing to be afraid of.

I wonder if they regret that stint now. Actually, I hope it was just flour they were "dusting" in their kids' salad.

He don't seem to like it!

No, she sho' don't.

went on TV to serve some currently banned pesticide in a meal to their families

(eye-roll)

Our pal Swift Loris has some cherce words for that one.

Really, my editorial tantrum was just about that one sentence--the misuse of the single word "euphemistically," specifically--and that only after reading Francis's comment, about three above mine, debunking Whitty's characterization of drilling mud quoted in the parent comment. How much of the rest of the article is "hinky," I wouldn't presume to say, but like lotus I'd be cautious about taking it as gospel.

Well, the article is a compendium of worst-case outcomes, some fraction of which will probably come true. I thought the discussion of the Deep Scattering Layer was very interesting. The large subsea plumes that have been found so far tend to top out at 1000 meters. This is just below or slightly overlapping the DSL. So those goofy lantern fish and whatnot may not have a big problem with the plumes. Frankly, if the oil has to be somewhere, I'd rather it be way down there than somewhere else, but godspeed to the amphipods and Ms. Sixgill.

It reminds me of a label I saw on a can of peanuts the other day. "Pure Sea Salt".

Oxymoronic of course. The sea contains the entire periodic table in various amounts.

Dimitry - here is a short summary of your link :

"BP and the government say the spill is fast disappearing—but dramatic new science reveals that its worst effects may be yet to come." ...

"We know that the deep scattering layer in the Gulf of Mexico—like the DSL everywhere—supports huge numbers and biomass of life," says Benoit-Bird, who has spent time studying the Gulf's sperm whales.
"We know the DSL is super important to the life of those waters.
We know it's constantly on the move, not only up and down, but inshore and offshore, back and forth, every day and every night.
This greatly increases the likelihood that any given animal or layers of life will be exposed to the pollutants at some point in the course of their travels.
And each of these exposures will cascade up and down through the food web.""

"Some early observations of the effects of the Gulf catastrophe suggest the daily vertical migrations of the animals of the deep scattering layer may be blocked when they encounter plumes of oil and contaminants. If so, then trapped below a plume, the DSL fish and invertebrates would be unable to access their prey.
Trapped above, they would be unable to escape their predators. Trapped within, they would probably die—and in their deaths, poison those who eat them.
For the ocean, any loss of productivity in the deep scattering layer would be the biggest cataclysm of all—impoverishing the surface waters, depleting the coasts, cascading across the boundaries between ocean and land to denude both natural and human economies." ...

These "plumes of oils and contaminants", would they be the plumes comprising 0.5 parts of hydrocarbon per million parts of seawater? Measured at a time when the Macondo well was emitting 30,000 - 60,000 barrels a day?.

Aren't those plumes likely to be even more diluted now that the well has been capped for a month?

Would fractions of a ppm block vertical movement of fish and invertebrates?

Diluted by dispersion and undoubtedly reduced in concentration by biological activity. Not to mention relatively small in area relative to the Gulf.

What WOULD block movement would be anoxia in the plumes, something there has been no evidence of.

"What WOULD block movement would be anoxia in the plumes, something there has been no evidence of."
--------------------------------------------------
No evidence, Speaker ? How do you know that ?
I´ve found this :

"In Perdido Bay, on the Florida-Alabama border, oxygen levels recently tested at less than two parts per million. Below that level, organisms cannot survive, Shipp said. "We monitor oxygen all the time and those are some of the lowest readings we've ever had," he said.

Chemical oceanographer John Kessler from Texas A&M University recently spent about two weeks sampling the waters in a 6-mile radius around the BP-operated Deepwater Horizon rig. More than 3,000 feet below the surface, he found natural gas levels have reached about 100,000 times normal and are pushing down oxygen levels as bacteria break the gas down, Kessler said.

Near the spill site, researchers have found a massive die-off of pyrosomes - cucumber-shaped, gelatinous organisms fed on by endangered sea turtles.

The dispersed oil makes matters worse, because when it sinks to the ocean floor, bottom-dwelling organisms eat it and may in turn be eaten by larger organisms. Along the coast, droplets of oil are being found in the shells of young crabs that are a mainstay in the diet of fish, turtles and shorebirds.

Condrey expects the oil toxins to accumulate in these organisms' fatty tissues, particularly the ovaries, affecting reproduction."

Sorry - I´ve forgotten the link :

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/oil-dispersants-a-threat-to-gulf...

This one is about Methane impact on water organisms and communities :

http://www.offshore-environment.com/naturalgas.html

"Gas rapidly penetrates into the organism (especially through the gills) and disturbs the main functional systems (respiration, nervous system, blood formation, enzyme activity, and others). External evidence of these disturbances includes a number of common symptoms mainly of behavioral nature (e.g., fish excitement, increased activity, scattering in the water). The interval between the moment of fish contact with the gas and the first symptoms of poisoning (latent period) is relatively short.

Further exposure leads to chronic poisoning. At this stage, cumulative effects at the biochemical and physiological levels occur.
A general effect typical for all fish is gas emboli.

Another critical environmental factor that directly influences the gas impact on water organisms is the concentration of dissolved oxygen. Numerous studies show that the oxygen deficit directly controls the rate of fish metabolism and decreases their resistance to many organic and inorganic poisons."

Obama's commission in rebellion??
An article in the "Oil Daily" yesterday (can't link, since it's subscriber only) quoted from a letter to Michael Bromwich of BOEM from the executive director of the commission Obama appointed to investigate the DWH incident. Richard Lazarus said, "We are particularly interested in whether individual rigs or categories of rigs are sufficiently safe to allow the moratorium to be lifted."
You may remember that the panel's two co-chairmen have each questioned the need for a blanket moratorium. One, William Reilly (EPA head under GWB), said it may have made more sense to post federal inspectors on each rig--rather than forcing operators to idle their rigs until November.
OK Commission---Issue a report NOW that the moratorium should be lifted NOW.

Doesn't sound like much of a "rebellion" to me, hasbeen. "We are particularly interested in whether individual rigs or categories of rigs are sufficiently safe to allow the moratorium to be lifted" equals "rebellion" to you? Fails the straight-face test, doesn't it?

Check your facts on Reilly. He was GHWB's EPA head.

lotus.....Yeah, sorry, I left out the "H".
But I don't know what you mean by failing the straight-face test. Please enlighten me.
But I do feel that the current comment, plus those of Reilly and Graham made earlier indicate their opinions that a blanket moratorium is not needed.

Please enlighten me.

hasbeen, I found your claim of "rebellion" a pretty remarkable mismatch with the mildness of Lazarus's actual quote -- about as milquetoast an expression of differing opinion or interest as could be. I think you're right about Graham-Reilly's apparent stance (at least from what I saw during their NOLA hearings), but to characterize their or Lazarus's language as rebellious makes no sense a-tall.

Well lotus......considering the way Obama stacked the jury from the git-go with a bunch of greenies and academicians, but NOBODY with oil field experience, Lazarus's milquetoast comment is about 179.95 degrees from what was expected. And it's good news to us oilfield trash down in Houston!

That's why the FBI is setting up shop in Nola, not Houston.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/27/AR201007...

hasbeen, in that you seem a little prone to magical thinking, I predict right now that you're going to be surprised repeatedly by those "greenies and academicians" and their oilpatch consultants. I further predict that you're going to have a hard time admitting same.

uncomformity....It matters not where the "BP Squad" sets up shop since it's an investigation, but it likely chose NOLA because that's where MMS regulators (bribe takers?) where based. If this were a trial, I think both you and lotus would be surprised how pro-oil-industry NOLA is.

And lotus, you seem to be prone to making impertinent, comical comments to almost anything posted here. I went back through pages of your postings (until getting bored) and didn't find a thing that materially added to the discussions. And most were in the childish slanguage kids use in texting or IMing. Maybe you should go back to teaching.

Flagged

For "you seem a little prone to magical thinking" and "I further predict that you're going to have a hard time admitting same", right?

Frank

Probably didn't rate a flagging, Dave. That said:

"...didn't find a thing that materially added to the discussions."

-- hasbeen on August 12, 2010 - 6:28pm

Lotus posts links to informative articles here every day. Hasbeen should know that without having to read her archived comments. The fact that he doesn't know that (even after reading her archived comments) shows that he doesn't read very carefully (must've worked for Playboy).

Easy now, fella.

My, wander off for dinner and who knows what you'll come back to, eh?

Well, hasbeen, yep, most of my purpose here is to add (pertinent) comic relief. But at least in my case, it's intended.

Now, because you're interested enough to study my comments (which, I don't mind telling you, is more than a tidge strange), I'll let you in on a secret (shhhh): I don't know what texting or IMing sounds like. My cellphone is the most basic kind, used only a few times a year (grudgingly). I've no clue what texting/IMing language includes, so maybe it sounds like me instead of the other way round? Although . . . since that'd be just-too-weird, I imagine it's something else you made up.

Awwww...come on lotus.,..kewll, LOL, ya, No, she sho' don't, dunno, Mo, gummint , Indeedy, and mind you beware them frumious Bandersnatches out there today, awright, erain? So's we kin confer again when the sun's next o'er the yardarm

Pretty simple for a teacher, huh?. I also found one of your posts where you accused folks like me for hating the Obama administration. FYI, don't hate him but I despise him, Pelosi, Reid, et al.
I'm sure you don't, so I'll quit arguing with you. BTW, I'm not racist--100 years ago I had a black girl friend.
But, I know more about the oil and gas industry than you will ever know even if you lurk here for 30 years.
I'm a petroleum engineer who started in S LA, with Amoco before BP bought them. After that, I worked for 30 years for a upstream industry magazine, leaving as Publisher, now retired.

Awwww...come on lotus.,..kewll, LOL, ya, No, she sho' don't, dunno, Mo, gummint , Indeedy, and mind you beware them frumious Bandersnatches out there today, awright, erain? So's we kin confer again when the sun's next o'er the yardarm

Boy, none of that looks like any text/IMing language I've ever seen (except for LOL, which has been around far longer than cellphones).

FWIW, IMHO, lotus contributes a tremendous amount here in various ways, many of them topically substantive, some commensensical, some just refreshing. And I'd say she nailed you on your "rebellion" comment.

simple for a teacher

Take the language critique in context, Lotus.

Hasbeen is an admirer of Sara Palin (aka Shakespalin; laughing stock).
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6708#comment-672354

Hasbeen is an admirer of Sara Palin (aka Shakespalin; laughing stock).

Had to read the "offending" quote several times to get what you meant. Apparently your tea leaves reading is better than mine.

Let's see, he was talking with someone from Alaska and said this:

BTW, was Fran one of the crooked Dems that Palin ran out of office? Honestly I don't know.

I don't know anything at all about Palin, and can't count what I'm being fed by the MSM as contributing to that. I do know several pilots based out of Anchorage who know her quite well whose opinions I respect better than everyone in the MSM and they contend she is NOTHING like the idiot the MSM has been working very hard to portray her as.

Now if she had said something like Corpse-man 3 times in speeches to the military, well that would be just embarrassing, but wait it wasn't HER it was OBAMA. Maybe she just needs better teleprompters, and maybe Obama needs someone educated to tell him how to pernounce them werds.

Here is the relevant part of the quote:

BTW, was Fran one of the crooked Dems that Palin ran out of office? Honestly I don't know.
Your characterization of Tea Party folks is insulting! I'm not a Tea Party member, but the ones I've met are salt of the earth folks who want to take the country back from BOTH Dem and Rep crooks and career politicians. Obama, Pelosi and Reid are at the top of their list. I guess they aren't liked because they have half a brain --your words, not mine..

To which Alaska_geo replied, in part:

Hasbeen, since you "honestly don't know" I will honestly tell you. The answer is no. Fran was Chancelor of UAA when the crooks (nearly all Republican legislators by the way) were busted by the FBI. Palin only ran one person out of office. He was Randy Ruderich, chair of the state Republican Party.

Hasbeen did not reply.

Maybe he's not a Palin fan. Let him speak for himself. But he certainly doesn't discount her for her malapropisms, folksy speechifyin', and airy comments.

I don't know anything at all about Palin

Educate yourself. She could be President someday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m38kNLSEras

Oops, and you can also see Russia from Alaska. Yep

Indeed, you can - from Little Diomede Island.

That's a fact of no particular import, but it is something that I learned before Palin was born.

That much sport has been made of her knowledge of it is understandable, I guess. But it saddens me that some Americans are so lacking in geographic awareness that they seem to think that it shows her to be ignorant rather than themselves.

Frank

Rather then the lack of geographic awareness, wasn't it the notion that standing on Little Diomede and staring towards the eastern fringes of Russia qualifies one as an experienced international statesman?

I think that's a valid point, but is that context incorporated into remarks such as Tiger63's?

I don't think so, in my view that context (lame though it might be) gets discarded and the remark gets unfairly turned into something much worse than it was.

Frank

hasbeen, I'm not going to dignify all this tediousness with a response, except on one point:

BTW, I'm not racist

Oops. When I practiced law, it never failed that a witness volunteering a denial of something s/he hadn't been accused of was lying. But never mind my second career. In my first, Shakespeare's Queen Gertrude (Hamlet, Act 4, Scene 5) put it this way:

So full of artless jealousy is guilt,
It spills itself in fearing to be spilt.

Cleanup on aisle hasbeen, please . . .

Lotus, I have to agree with hasbeen here. Though I shore do agree with your recipe`s, pecan and cinnamin biskits are on my agenda for friends one day when I got the smoker goin`. Good Dessert.

Does anyone have a firm idea of what is going on in this video from August 4, 2010?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bhKWDsONNA

Nothing going on here except for the BOP sinking and the sea floor exploding as a methane bubble fifty miles in diameter engulfs the ships and they sink and the Gulf of Mexico drains into the displaced void and the Earth goes off axis and flies out of solar orbit like a gyroscope.
Didn't you hear about that?

OK. Not really.
How about an ROV turned off the lights?
That works for me.

Maybe he blowed a fuse. Hard to replace 5 kilofeet down ;-)

Well..

that doesn't look good at all :(

Got a feeling everyone will overlook this post though. If you're lucky someone might pop in and tell you its ROV thrusters

EDIT: Or pop in with some always-helpful sarcasm :-/

Those silly amphipods again!

Thank our lucky stars it wasn't the outrageous crustaceans again!

* Will this seeing evil/monsters/explosions/gas clouds/FIRE!/sea-floor-wiggling/sea monsters/catastrophic bubbling in every youtube video madness never end? Over the past 90 days or so, I've learned not just about the nuts and bolts of this accident and its resolution, but also how delusional and paranoid and absolutely unprepared most people are for comprehending anything outside of their immediate experiential base. The sheer numbers of people with the technological prowess necessary to merely find this web site, but who, NEVERTHELESS, possess the scientific and logical knowledge of Chimpanzees Screaming at an Eclipse (TM) is astonishing and terrifying. And to think that lawyers, bankers, jornolists and politicians, not to mention oil company PR hacks move freely within this idiocracy...

+ 100

Don't forget red methane. Maybe I'll put out a warning that the red methane isn't the dangerous stuff, it's the green methane that will get you.

You're right. It's just crazy the stuff that's out there. And it doesn't go away no matter how many times it gets debunked. Fact is, we live in a world that 1% understand and the other 99% just accept. And that's NOT a good thing.

I've been doing a lot of reading on methane hydrates, methane leaks, etc. and found out that sometimes destabilized methane hydrate 'clouds' can be quite beautiful, ranging in color from red to orange and purple.

Nah, Pinkfud,65% understand, and half of them are wrong, and half of them actually try to figure it out, and half of them......

[tweak on] How do you *know* the BOP on the second well hasn't fallen over? [tweak off]

Some of this is driven by fear. Some people aren't confidently and coldly logical because there's so much disinfo out there, their friends and neighbors read or see scary stuff and get worked up, etc. Then there are true believers in anything and everything that runs counter to what BP's telling them as a matter of faith. Twenty+ percent of the earth's inhabitants believe that aliens walk among us. Some ridiculously high percentage of Americans believe in fairies and (seemingly) most below the age of 25 now yearn for vampires or want to be one.

There's a second well?

Standing O for Uncon!

I second that emotion!

... but who, NEVERTHELESS, possess the scientific and logical knowledge of Chimpanzees Screaming at an Eclipse (TM) is astonishing and terrifying.

yeah. and they vote too. terrifying indeed.

There are only a handful of people out there putting out the terrifying crap.

What scares me is the mumbo jumbo nonsense and cover up the government and BP are putting out there.

I also believe the consequences of their lies and withholding of the studies being done is far more of a threat to the American people then the doomsayers ever will be.

The frightening thing is how many people don't have the ability to distinguish the crap from these sites from arguments based on measurement and logic.

Heck in this country polls show that only 14% of the US population believes that evolution is true.

Once the MSM plus the wacko sites get done spinning the reports it won't matter if they had been released or not. The science education in the US is so bad that that most of the adult population is incapable of drawing valid conclusions from scientific analysis anyway.

>>Heck in this country polls show that only 14% of the US population believes that evolution is true.<<

I don't believe in evolution but I fail to see the correlation between that and not having "the ability to distinguish the crap from these sites."

It saddens me that because a person has a different viewpoint than yours (on evolution for example) that it somehow makes them too mentally inferior to draw valid conclusions.

Point well taken.

I think they are quite related.

It isn't a matter of being 'mentally inferior', rather it's a matter of being taught to make decisions based on a naturalistic view using sound logical principles.

Something quite lacking in the US, sadly.

LOL

Well I can't argue with your logic so you must be right.

Peace.

:-)

Ya' know Speaker, I appreciate your point of view on many occasions and I have stated this before. Then you make a comment like this;

It isn't a matter of being 'mentally inferior', rather it's a matter of being taught to make decisions based on a naturalistic view using sound logical principles.

...which is total BS IMHO.

What you believe is true and set in stone will be proven false in years to come. Maybe next year or fifty years from now but that's how it's been for centuries. So my take on what you stated is all those before you were mentally inferior based on their naturalistic view. Science is always stated as factual and anyone who disagrees is out of step. What does science do when science proves science wrong? Try compiling a list of all the science that has been wrong in the past as in, just totally off the chart wrong. Yet when it was presented it was presented as factual.

This thinking is the same as "corexit is safe." Yeah it is today because we have no reliable data to prove otherwise. We chose corexit as the lesser of two evils and the question remains to be answered as to how evil coeexit really is. Trust all, we will know in a few years but today it's safe because science says it is.

I don't want to break your capsule/bubble but science doesn't always approach problems using sound logic even when the logic is tried, true, and tested.

+__ (take what you need)

But in defense of Speakers' less fundamentalist colleagues, they routinely use the phrase "giant science experiment" to describe what's going on in the gulf.

Yes. I hope what I wrote isn't misconstrued as such.

All I asked is if anyone can tell me what they think this is?

Thanx for bringing the video. It certainly "looks" like a big leak. Obviously, nobody here has any idea what it is or what part of the equipment is affected. I'm sorry to see you subjected to unwarranted scorn for asking a simple question. That kind of meanness is beneath contempt. It's a character issue - it's "soooo BP". It's an old pysche trick to bury any truth that might emerge. (akin to winning thru intimdation and silencing the opposition) Keep watching the ROVS, collect your videos and maybe someday everything will come together and make sense to all of us frickety fracking dummies who are sincerely interested in what is happening to our planet - and OUR land.

(clapping wildly for this one)!! Where I live I am surrounded by idiots that are delusional and IMO some are flat out crazy, some are con artist and others just believe if it's on the net it must be true and the fact they vote scares the hell out of me, I'd bet money 50% of them after watching the Hank Johnson youtube think Guam might capsize (big shout out to whomever posted that, I have laughed my @ss off), but then again just a bit inland is the UFO siting capital of Florida.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Breeze_UFO_incident

Interesting you should mention Hank Johnson, mommy, while we're talking about misperceptions.

According to Hank Johnson, a practicing Buddhist (one of two in Congress) and longtime sufferer of Hepatitus C (contracted in Vietnam):

“I wasn’t suggesting that the island of Guam would literally tip over,” said Johnson. “I was using a metaphor to say that with the addition of 8,000 Marines and their dependents – an additional 80,000 people during peak construction to the port on the tiny island with a population of 180,000 – could be a tipping point which would adversely affect the island’s fragile ecosystem and over burden its already overstressed infrastructure.

“Having traveled to Guam last year, I saw firsthand how this beautiful – but vulnerable island – is already overburdened, and I was simply voicing my concerns that the addition of that many people could tip the delicate balance and do harm to Guam.”

Pretty quickly then, someone commented at Wonkette :

Ugh. Sorry to be a total wet blanket, but my dad died from Hep C seven years ago (contracted, along with many other vets, from unhygienic conditions in Vietnam) and was very disoriented and confused at the end. It was unspeakably awful, and this video pretty much just ruined my day. I feel for this congressman. Part of what makes it so terrible is that victims of this disease often don’t realize when they’re confused or sound weird, as those around them struggle to figure out what’s going on. Very sad.

So (as Bob Dudley would say). There you go.

So (as Bob Dudley would say). There you go.

Where? I'm not sure one person's painful experience of her father being confused as a result of hepatitis C necessarily means Johnson was also confused to the point of thinking Guam might actually tip over from additional population. Not aware his metaphor would be so wildly misinterpreted, for sure; maybe that equates to not being aware of sounding weird? But it made sense to me. "Tipping point" is a common phrase used to describe the beginning of serious ecological deterioration. And most of us have managed to sound weird to others at some point even without having hepatitis C.

I agree with your points, first being I need no help whatsoever to sound stupid , second I can't chalk if off to Hep C as I have a family member that had it, but prolly were crazier before they ever conrtacted it. Also, it was not the tipping that made me laugh as much as it was the additional point of the Island "capsizing" I was thinking about the Island I am on and the fact that it's only 1/4 mile wide at is widest point and I was envisioning it capsizing.. ....Whether it was used metaphorically or not made no difference in the video I watched, it was the way the video was edited that had me laughing so hard I almost spit my drink over the computer. I love a good laugh, even at my expense-life is too short to not have a great belly laugh every now and then.

I guess my I live by this motto: live, love and laugh....make sound silly but it works for me and my blue toesies:)

I guess my I live by this motto: live, love and laugh....make sound silly but it works for me and my blue toesies:)

Ma, anybody who has blue toesies gotta be having a good time.

I think the root of a lot of the doomsaying is politically motivated. There is a huge distrust and even a downright hatred of the government, especially the current administration. Since the government is calling the shots, any failure or hint of incompetence will serve to discredit the president. It appears that some will go to extreme lengths to further that agenda. Even the nuttiest of those pitching CT's are intelligent people, so they must be doing it on purpose. I can't think of any other reason an otherwise rational person would so agessively promote such nonsense. (they're bound to know it's nonsense)

What I have a hard time understanding is why people who are so distrusting of authority (usually any authority, regardless of who the administration is at the time or where the power resides) will still gullibly fail for the drivel of the first whack-job that comes along. Seems massively inconsistent to me. If someone are going to parse every word that comes out of TPTB, why not apply the same standard to the CT then embraced?

This has always bothered me about the people drawn to CT even before DWH.

IHMO, critical thinking should be applied equally to the statements of both TPTB and the CT promoters.

There is a huge distrust and even a downright hatred of the government, especially the current administration.

If you hold whatever partisanship you may have rolling through there, that could be said certainly about the last three. Add Nixon. Reagan. Johnson had to pack it in. We liked Ike. Kennedy wasn't around long enough to catch the big heat. Everybody else, we didn't like so much. However, I agree with you about the institutions of government catching more hell than usual. Financial turmoil with no clear way out does that.

I have a firm idea about what it's not. It's not oil, because there isn't any oil on the surface around the well and there hasn't been for many days, according to the NOAA maps that I track. The data that's still online only goes back to Aug. 6 (http://gomex.erma.noaa.gov/erma.html#x=-88.77502&y=28.69059&z=9&layers=5...), so you'll have to trust my memory.

Strange, isn’t it, that with all of these eruptions, BOP bursts and methane storms that nothing ever produces surface manifestations? Where is the oil slick? Even with disbursed oil, a pretty fair portion of it makes it to the surface (it's that pesky specific gravity thing!)

I really thought that the "bottom is erupting" exclamations would have dried up by now but they seem to be going full force.

In some darker corners, more so. Now it can't be seen at all, which is even better proof of a grand coverup. But I do sense that some of the fly-by-night conspiracy dilettantes have moved off in more promising directions.

I just spoke to Ernest T. Bass, and he said " when they let me out from breakin` my last winder, Barney told me that Andy weren`t worried
`bout no methane bubble down yonder comin` Mayberry way, so we aint too exited out here in Colorado. Straight from the horses mouth.

Not to be snarky,bb, but I've seen it written multiple times that hurricanes won't affect the BOP, LMRP, pipelines,rovs etc because the seafloor is 5000 feet below. So by the same principle, how logical is it to assume that the observed current disruptions will yield a surface display?

Not to say I believe what is going on down there is stable. One of the problems with the rov display is the quality of the raw image. Fortunately I'm running Linux and VLC on a separate machine for the rov feeds. The activity at floor level is crystal clear and one can easily determine if the disturbance is caused by "thrusting" in most cases. These disturbances have been increasing in duration over the last few days.

For those who desire to observe the rov feeds clearly, use VLC and the VLC tool kit to adjust the gamma and contrast-it takes a little time and effort, but it's free, superior in performance and works well in this case. BTW-be sure to turn off motion detector. You won't need it, the changes in the floor environment will be highly visible. The rovs have already designated the hot spots and made it even easier for you.

Your Friend,
The Eel
Photobucket

Not to be snarky,bb, but I've seen it written multiple times that hurricanes won't affect the BOP, LMRP, pipelines,rovs etc because the seafloor is 5000 feet below. So by the same principle, how logical is it to assume that the observed current disruptions will yield a surface display?

1) We have previously observed that oil emerging from the sea-floor in significant volumes produces a visible slick at the surface.

2) Hurricanes are essentially air in motion, air doesn't penetrate 5000 feet into the ocean depths, it just pushes at the surface of the water. Frictional effects mean that the surface layers exert a force on lower layers but that drops off rapidly with distance. In the case of oil and gas emerging from the sea bed, these lighter (lower density) fluids rise through a heavier fluid to it's upper surface as a simple consequence of gravity on Earth. So it isn't the same principle in operation.

Wednesday, August 4 at 0214 was during the static kill attempt or thereabouts.

See time line: https://docs.google.com/View?id=dff7zmqz_7c6rdwsc9

I'm pretty knowledgeable about the physical world as we claim to know it ,
and I'm pretty sure that a lot of PSI is reaching the surface.

( Disclaimer :This video does

    not

show you a ROV thruster ) :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG0AKqw3H1Y

The fact that BP continues to show us this means there is not a cover-up ,
but indeed a lot of uncertainty

These images of a surface penetrated by pressurised gasses that enter the water under erratic behaviour due to phase changes are becoming more and more the standard view of my eveninglife , and NONE of that was going on before the last static kill attempt.

So I'm sure there is an induced breach since
, in full agreement with the following article :

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-cavnar/adm-allen-confused---so-n_...

GJNL

This is from early this morning when it appeared that the ROV became stranded there.

Something was really making the video pulsate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SZ9ZP5qx7s

Shooting home video of an internet video feed could cause some picture quality isues.
I'd guess the ROV crisis was existential.

Notice how the turbitity clouds caused by sediment in the water faded away in the current.

Gotta say I agree with you. At one point you can see another screen below. Obviously this was someone rather unsteadily filming something on his computer. Despite the unsteadiness, though, the image is interesting.

Yeah I know it is crappy, I can't find a way to do screen captures with this setup I am using. I have searched everywhere on the net and have tried different things to no avail

In all the watching of the ROV feeds I have never seen one pulse like that. The pulsing calmed down but it was still there a good hour after that happened. He has not moved from that spot since around 5am this morning.

The thing he has in his left hand is a tool he took down there yesterday.

In all the watching of the ROV feeds I have never seen one pulse like that. The pulsing calmed down but it was still there a good hour after that happened. He has not moved from that spot since around 5am this morning.

Coulda' been a version of ROV big "O." Male rabbits do the same thing.

LOL LOL LOL

I wondered about that.

Had seen the pulsating ,
thought it might be air , water or other fluid stuck within the lens that was interfering with the auto-focus.

Can recommend http://camstudio.org/ for your video takes

Thanks GJNL!

GJNL, I'm curious ... just why do you think what is shown in the YouTube video is "Methane storm?" What is the defining chareristic that make you see methane?

I'm serious. I simply don't understand what you are seeing that is the definitive indicator for methane. Would you please explain.

You're right , I'll correct that , too presumptious
Must be my poetic side ,
cannot infer any physical and/or chemical attributes from the contents of this video
Thanks

Then, I think I miss your point entirely. I'm lost.

You miss the point of my post ?
I'm no fatalist , I think BP and gov will manage
I just think it will ask for more time and effort than everyone hoped for
.
Its a runaway entropy differential that needs to be counterbalanced

I interpret it somewhat differently.

If you'll look carefully, I believe that you will discover that the "horizon," demarcating the boundary between the light area in front from the shadow behind it, shifts in tandem with the passage of silt floating across it, giving the illusion of a pulsating bottom because it changes the shape of the shadow thrown by the light.

Critical thinking involves looking at events, behaviors, scenes, etc. through several "lenses" and choosing what the best explanation is, and if it's something that instills fear in us, we should especially consider the alternative interpretations.

Remember the boogey man in the closet, or under the bed, or standing next to the bed, and how real they seemed until we looked at them with the light on.

I remember walking back to my quarters at night one summer while I was working at a summer camp for kids.

I heard a strange noise that I couldn't identify, kind of a hissing sound. When I moved closer it moved away, when I moved back, it followed me. I spent several minutes trying to determine what it was and even though I'm hardly an alarmist by nature, I was seriously considering the possibility that it was an alien life form, until I moved a little closer and felt a drop of water. It was an oscillating sprinkler.

I felt stupid, and perhaps even slightly disappointed. I've fallen for several false impressions since, and probably still can, but I've learned to better challenge my perceptions as I got older.

Probably within a couple of hundred years I'll be a little less excitable.

Very much concur and would only add that we humans like patterns so much that we can create patterns where they don't exist (the image of the Virgin Mary in a grilled cheese sandwich.) Without an experience base, people can read just about anything they want into the ROV images. If they want to see methane, they see methane.

Unfortunately, many people don't know how to think critically and lack a base of experience to understand what is happening. Instead, they want some to explain what they see. They surrender their own judgment to someone else but often don't/can't discriminate the veracity of what they are being told.

Yes , also beware of the same tricks that dogma and established fact can do upon observation , switching the 'known' with the 'obvious' , and (thus) the 'past' with the 'now'

Very true.

Suggests that jumping to conclusions is kind of risky.

So why do we jump to conclusions so often, even when there is no apparent need to rush?

Perhaps because it uncertainty aggravates our feeling of being out of control?

That is a particularly troubling feeling to experience when we see the world as a dangerous place, with, in the extreme experience of that world view, a sense that disaster is lurking around every corner. Along with the attendant difficulty that, because of our intense focus on identifying danger as soon as possible, we have difficulty identifying opportunities.

I'm reminded of livestock who are reluctant to leave the barn, even when it's on fire, because they experience the open air as more dangerous. By the same token, we are often so engaged in our focus on perceived danger that we fail to realize that letting go of our obsession with it might not only help us feel safer, but give us more freedom of action to actually respond to real danger.

I prefer my world view which is that the world is full of opportunity, with occasional challenges of varying severity along the path. That doesn't guarantee immunity from danger, but neither does the alternative.

DE.B: Ahh...! That coming out FROM control thing. My experience with that came rather suddenly and severely. I think some are given more time than others toward that realization. Some of us just have to be whopped along side the head with a two by four before we turn to. Some are stronger in will than others, so the breaking comes harder. Know what I mean? The point is to come out from fear and embrace the freedom of that, which is.... ourselves! That's what I think. Aw, hell, what do I know? Just construction trash talkin trash here....

I don't even bother to click the youtube links. Why? Because there's no context. Context of what work was being done, context of what happened before and after the 'scary event' captured and presented as such, context as to what other ROVs out of view were doing. I have seen things in the feeds I couldn't explain - all that means is that I don't have the knowledge (and/or sufficient context) to explain it. And there are mountains of other things I've seen that DID make sense, because I could put it in context. When I watch, I have multiple feeds running, and whenever possible try to figure out which ROV is where as viewed from the others. When that's possible, it's amazing how much it all explains itself. A scene is easier to figure out as the number of viewpoints increases - something shown on only one ROV with no idea what happened 3 minutes before or 1 minute after the recording started is where ALL of these wild doomsday interpretations are coming from.

CONTEXT!! These youtube clips ain't got it. And without CONTEXT, you're down the freakin' rabbit hole.

So I was correct when I referenced the male rabbit pulse/paralysis syndrome.

I'll watch em, but don't take them one way or the other most times.There is noway you can know what happened before or where another ROV is.Whenever I am going to watch the video feeds I'll use two monitors so I can get a feel as to where another ROV is in the area and when he moves I'll be aware of it.

Good way to put it.

I'm not accustomed to the advantage of literally seeing things from different viewpoints, so I have to discern what different perspectives might explain what I'm looking at, and then choose the one that makes the most sense.

Very often when we dig further into the matter (another way of shifting viewpoint) we can identify reasonable alternative explanations. Unfortunately, sometimes when latch onto a perspective it's like what happens once pink elephants get into our thoughts, it's difficult to evict them. Sometimes the best thing to do is let go for a while, do something else, and come back to it later to see if it looks any different. Rarely are matters so urgent that we don't have time to do that.

Fortunately, in my work I have a pretty good sense of how people's minds work, so I can apply that information to help me look at things differently than they initially appear. But it's true dogma can get in the way so you have to regularly test your premises. When the perspective that you're using can help predict behavior, or resonate with the actor, it helps a lot to validate the underlying premises.

I'm always interested when I help a parent understand their child's behavior differently and suggest they try a different approach to respond to it. It's very gratifying when they come back next week and tell me it worked, in such a pleased but surprised fashion.

In true critical thinking, dogma is usually the first thing challenged.

I see amphipods and small fish scooting around and some sediments blowing around in the currents.
It's interesting how the turbidity clouds, the very fine sediments in the water, behave much the same as maybe fog banks or clouds in the air, even to the extent of forming vortices. The currents are fascinating to observe.

In Re: All of these claims of gas eruptions and methane bubblings and such, I would expect that if that were happening on any considerable scale the bubbles and rising gas would create currents that would flow toward the area of the gas release then upward with the gas. Entraining currents or some such fluid dynamic thing. I suspect it would look different from what we're seeing and would not just clear up after five or ten minutes as in (most of) these videos. Every time these ROVs move on or near the bottom, they cause turbidity storms. The thrusters are on their lower quarters and they blast off from the bottom in clouds of muck.

I agree with you that BP isn't giving us much to go on, especially in the light of the pressure being held in the stack even after a so-called static kill. That's just weird.
My money is on some kind of flow path still being open, somewhere, somehow.

So, it's about time for the amphipod daily show.
Time to go check some video....

Why then do you think the amphipods would show themselves only to Rov Intervention nr 2 ?
And none of the others ?

Would seem as strange to me ...

And how can a thruster thrust at a distance when the ROV is static as a rock ?

What I remember from the spillflow before the capping was the periodicity with which the amount of gasses would increase and decrease over time , as if the movements upwards from within the reservoir were not uniform.
That could explain the clearing and subsiding , and re-emerging of the pressures

GJNL: I noticed you changed the caption under the video to something like "seafloor vortex and clouds" from "methane storm and vortex" or similar. That indicates progress to me. Keep reading TOD to get an honest perspective of what's going on down there. Real scientists and engineers (I'm neither) will give you expert opinions (yes, they are opinions but they come from training and experience in observation) on what they see. When they make a statement about entropy for example, they usually throw out some calculations or a link to data to back it up.

My original comment was about the "methane storm" before the caption was changed. I just sat through a South Dakota thunderstorm. Now that was a storm!

Please try to fit these two points into your thinking:

(1) There are a lot of ROVs in rather small area. An ROV thrusting in the neighborhood (but otherwise unseen and out of frame) will create their own eddies and flows tens of meters (perhaps a hundred) away. Also, an ROV out of frame simply moving from one place to another will create its own water disturbances due to the sheer size and blunt facets of the machine itself. These eddies and flows will interact with the local bottom currents which are typically relatively weak but still present. These turbulent flows from unseen ROVs in vicinity (but unseen in the video frame) will come into the view of the camera of what you see as a "static as a rock" ROV.

BTW, the static ROV itself should be taken as an indicator of how still the water is. These ROV have excellent dynamic positioning systems to maintain their position in auto-hover mode. Sometimes, latched onto something out of frame. And, yes, they occasionally sit in the mud on the bottom too.

In other words, the water itself is not still and calm. However, you can't see the water itself, you only see the things suspended in the water that move around.

(2) The fine sediments that you see drifting (and I assume read as methane) are the very, very fine portion of the sediments not yet settled back to the bottom. IMO, these are sourced from a larger bottom disturbance out of frame. While they heavier stuff has already settled, the finest of the sediments are very analogous to smoke particles. They will drift in the eddies, flows currents for kilometers. They will eventually settle out just has the heavier stuff already did out of frame. Until then, they will drift with the flow that carries them. In your video, they move up and down and laterally. I maintain they function as markers so you can see the water flows.

Remember how this particular bottom got there in the first place. This bottom is made up of fine sediments that settled out of the outflow of the Mississippi River. They got to this place, quite a distance from the mouth of the Mississippi, by finally settling out of the water column. If stirred up again (as they are every time an ROV gets too close to the bottom) they will waft and drift in the water for a while longer.

Where you see methane storms, I see very fine drifting sediment in slowly moving water. Sorry, your video is totally consistent with my own personal hands-on experience of the GOM bottom disturbed by ROVs.

Also, I have a different starting assumption than you. I saw all of these same things, including the biological life, back in May when I first started watching these feeds. My assumption for the reasons many people thing theses are new are (a) because of the bottom surveys, there are more bottom-sediment disturbances now; and (b) people are paying more attention.

Another thing to keep in mind is there are several ROV's working down there that have no feeds, so you can't just look at the video board and see there are no other ROV's in the area.

Stop it. We'll have none of that here.Makes to much sense. How can the CTer's come up with anything after reading this?

Oh, I have no doubt they will ;-)

Sorry, bb, I've answered you once already on these points but let me try to be more coherent here and answer them point by point.

1) Multiple ROV movements. That's a possibility if what you see is on the side of the frame, or even sometimes in the forward view, but not often. I've experienced watching great turbulence approach the filming ROV (one time only), only to discover that it was a ROV pulling a piece of machinery through the sediment. So, yes, it's possible but doesn't happen very often.

2)The sediment hanging in a cloud over the seafloor is, according to my view, the result of methane destabilization, not left-over sediment from ROV thrusters. What I interpret as methane destabilization from frozen hydrates are the small spout formations seen on the ROV videos which discharge something (I assume methane). When there are many spouts close to each other you see a bubbling sort of image, although it is still possible to focus on each individual spout and its individual discharge. Since the 'cloud' lies directly over the spouts, it seems obvious to me that it's an accumulation of discharges. Interesting that the white blobs are amphipods. That question has been answered. Amphipods like to eat methane.

3) I certainly pay attention to the videos. Too much attention. I'm getting little else done. Arg. But it is necessary to do a lot of watching to catch the clear moments when the spouts are visible. Those of us who see methane discharging from the ocean floor are seeing more than 'clouds.' If you haven't seen the spouts then it's no wonder you don't understand what we're talking about.

Hi nepeta.

Your #1 - I see this is all the time from the sides and even from below. I've often seen stirs in the view of one ROV created by an second ROV truck'n overhead and picked up in the wide-shot of a third ROV. Yes, I too have seen ROVs working with equipment on the bottom as well as pulling what looked like hoses/cables out of the sediments for hundreds of feet. Heavy thruster-blown mud flows can carry for tens of meters (becoming progressively thinner as they go) and the very finest sediments can carry for kilometers.

Your #2 - Sorry, just don't believe these type of clouds are methane. I strongly stand by my explanation of floating sediments.

Your #3 - As I said in my last posting to you on the previous thread, the bottom of the GOM is biologically active. Things will happen, but everything I have seen that is not thruster blows or sediments are more consistent with this bio-activity.

IMO, any well-pressure induced HC blow (say from leaking casing) would be massive and hard to mistake as anything else. As for methane destabilization, in my experience, I've never observed methane hydrate destabilizing underwater. Also, I'm not sure what would cause or trigger this process at this depth and temperature. In all cases, HCs (oil and methane) will produce a measurable observable surface manifestation. Even a little methane would be a massive safety concern to the city of ships on the surface (makes things go boom). Oil would produce a slick.

bb,

You said, " As for methane destabilization, in my experience, I've never observed methane hydrate destabilizing underwater."

But you do know that methane hydrates destabilize on the ocean floor all the time. I've read articles about oil drilling itself heating the sediment around the well bore (from the hot oil) enough to initiate hydrate destabilization. I've been trying to find a photo of a natural methane leak but alas, can only find reports, everywhere from the Arctic to the Carolinas. The GOM is loaded with hydrates and is a major concern when drilling there, as evidenced by the DWH blowout.

Anyway, the best I can do at the moment is to show you this photo. It looks very much like what I see on the BP feeds, although the 'mound' here is more a spout shaped thing on the ocean floor.

Whew. I've got to give up on this soon. I should just sit back and see who's right in the long run, if we ever find out. (grin)
Anyway, thanks for your patience.

http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/FutureSupply/MethaneHydrate...

And here's another good page from the same site. Read the whole thing but particularly the last paragraph:

http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/FutureSupply/MethaneHydrate...

There was an article about this in E&P magazine this month, but there seems to be something wrong with it. I've waited several hours and it isn't working yet. Here's a Google cache of it and here's the original Maybe it will be working by the time you read this?

Thanks, widelyred. I could read the Google cache copy. Didn't try the original. I've found lots of articles about the possibility of getting the gas out of the hydrates for energy use. This was a good one, covering all angles.

Yes hydrates are very common. And they certainly exist in the GOM. They exist in the water wherever conditions are right and HCs are present. However, at this depth, they are pretty stable unless acted on by an external force of some significance. Hot oil in production up a riser could certainly do it but only in the immediate vicinity for the well bore. Do the calculation to figure out how much energy it would take to heat a volume of seawater. The heating effect would be very localized.

Hydrate mounds can be detected in seismograph studies so I do think there is an undetected mound nearby missed originally or later created somehow by the blowout and release of HC. Also, in you link at http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/FutureSupply/MethaneHydrate... that shows the plume. Look at the depth of the mound (1,852.3 feet). I'm simply not aware of a process that could produce a gas plume at the depth/temperature of the Macondo well of just under 5,000 feet without an external force acting on the hydrate that could be observed/detected.

Hydrate disassociation to gas would still not account for the discussed smoky-sediment effect. Also, if methane was being produced and any quantity, the ship/vessels on the surface would detect it. Methane collecting under drilling rigs is a very dangerous situation and they are covered with sensors to sniff it out.

I've enjoyed discussing this with you. Keep learning! The process of critical thinking doesn't require that you come over to my position, just that you seriously study the issue and make your own informed conclusion rather than simply adopting the position of someone else. If we differ, so be it; we're still colleagues here at TOD. That's the great thing about opinions; we can each have our own!

Can I weigh in on this a bit? For any given water depth in a typical clay-through-sand unconsolidated sediment, there's a fairly well understood zone of clathrate stability in the seafloor. With a water depth of ~5000 feet, the zone is about 950 feet thick from the graph. So we can expect to find stable hydrates in the 950 feet of sediment below the seafloor there. That zone is somewhat more rigid than plain unconsolidated sediments because the hydrates bond it together. The hydrates right at the seabed surface are, of course, susceptible to being mechanically disturbed. But the ones deeper in the zone shouldn't decompose under any conditions that exist near the well. So I think any actual gas that is coming up is just top-layer stuff responding to all the disturbance down there.

Also, I'd like to do a simple experiment there. I'd like to measure the water temperature at the seafloor. I postulate that the temperature should be measurably higher where all the ROVs are running around than it would be at an equal depth some distance away. Those big motors and the hydraulics have to produce some heat, and it can't really get away with such small currents. If that idea is right, then we would expect more top-level hydrate destabilization because of the warmth.

Not that I have anywhere near the firm grasp some of you have on physics, but aren't different gases suspended differently at depth because of their bubble points ?

H2S gas appears as a cloud/mist

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULq0L5ggDjE

Methane gas appears as larger bubbles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahmjHLyF9GM

...I was thinking that we may be seeing different gases suspended in the water giving it an appearance of being cloudy. There was also a large amount of Nitrogen gas in the oil analysis, but I have not found an appropro vid.....I did find Don Ho, and this link too.

Don Ho tiny bubbles

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MXgc8wzfC4

http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Introduction_to_Chemical_Engineering_Proces...

Just saw a typo in http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6845#comment-700514:

BTW, the static ROV itself should be taken as an indicator of how still the water is

It should say:

BTW, the static ROV itself should NOT be taken as an indicator of how still the water is

>Why then do you think the amphipods would show themselves only to Rov Intervention nr 2 ?
And none of the others ?

He feeds them precisely at 6PM CDT?

The ones I saw yesterday were at 5:45 EDST.Different ROV tho

No theory is perfect.

Could be a contract issue. They could have sign an exclusive contract to only appear on the Intervention ROV. Perhaps the ROVs are competing for ratings.

Prove it :)

All shrimp, no sea monkeys.

Plus 12 minutes of my life down the tubes. Isn't that what they say you lose with each cigarette? I really want one now (it's been three years since my last - thanks, G).

No offense, though. I'm glad people are watching.

cigarette? I really want one now

Have a Russian Happy Meal instead.

http://englishrussia.com/index.php/2010/08/12/russian-happy-meal/#more-1...

Too wholesome.

I could kill myself more with an American Happy meal and a Chinese toy.

Or maybe something Dutch.

The best sentence in the cavnar-article is :

"CLEAR AS DRILLING MUD." ---- LOL !

It gives me pleasure that even the experts are confused about what´s going on.

RM Thanks for the clear explanation of tieback, production casing and liner. Too bad KW or TA did not show us a diagram explaining this. When the simple truth is shown it is not that complicated. Do they know these simple basics, and just like to keep the public in the dark? Seems like TA was confused many times with respect to drill pipe and casing.

tod - I think poor ole Thad suffers the same as any of us do when learning a new language: it's clear in your head what you want to say but it just won't come out right. KW I can't explain other than he may be all tech geek and knows nothing about teaching. He might be the best at doing it and one of the poorest at educating others. Seen that with many very savvy oil patch hands.

Rockman;

With KW it just may be that they don't want to bring attention to the fact that it was in their bag, but decided not to use it! Bp is in total self preservation mode. I came away from listening to the Coastguard hearings with the distinct feeling it was a war of the attorneys and the testimonials were secondary to their posturing for future litigation.

Here is one I have never understood.

Why would an ROV sit in front of a bunch of equipment doing a sonar survey?

Is the Sonar in the back of these ROV's?

http://mfile.akamai.com/97892/live/reflector:45683.asx

I agree with this article 100 percent.

http://dailyhurricane.com/2010/08/adm-allen-confused---so-now-is-everybo...

In actuality, this "static kill" did nothing that BP and Allen said it would do. Certainly the well is not dead or "static". It hasn't accelerated the relief well, but it has obscured the well's pressures, making it more difficult to kill. Hence, these new tests to figure out what's going on. BP and the government don't really have a clue where the 2,300 barrels of mud and 500 barrels of cement went. They originally claimed it all went down the casing and out to the reservoir. I would set the probability of that actually having happened at zero. Here's why: The positive test on the casing the night of the blowout was rock solid. The casing was good. It is possible that they may have collapsed the production casing during the blowout, but that would have been relatively high up in the wellbore, probably where they had displaced with seawater on the inside. If that happened, it would be communicated with the backside. In addition, at the bottom of the production casing is a float shoe, 134 feet of cement in the shoe track, then a float collar, then 2 cementing plugs with probably cement on top of those. Oh, and don't forget about the 3,000 feet of drill pipe hanging inside all of that. There is no way, unless that entire float assembly blew off, that they pumped down the casing and up the backside. On top of all that, there are HUGE lost circulation zones both below and above the reservoir. During drilling they lost 3,000 barrels of mud trying to drill that last section.

So, where did all the mud and cement go? It likely went down the backside of the production casing and either out through some damage that was caused during the aborted top kill, or out the lost circulation zone right below the 9 7/8" liner at 17,100. The fact that they're getting pressure now tells me that they are indeed communicated to the reservoir below, probably obscured by the fact that they now have mud strung through the annulus. If they are indeed communicated, pressure will build on the wellhead, which is exactly what's happening. Adm. Allen pledged to get BP to release the pressure data 3 days ago. The next day, when asked about it, he said it was released, but "nobody can find it." The data is still AWOL.

"... at the bottom of the production casing is a float shoe, 134 feet of cement in the shoe track, then a float collar ..."

How did BP manage to get 500 bbl cement down production casing when bottom 134 feet already plugged with cement?

rf - Apparently the same way over 50,000 bbls of oil per day flowed up through the shoe...it failed. Had the same thing happen on one of my onshore wells a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately we killed it easily without a blow out or even activating the BOP. Just did a static kill followed by another cmt job. Happens dozens of times just like that each year along the Gulf Coast.

Then BP knows why blowout occurred. Telling the world they're pumping 2300 bbl mud and 500 bbl cement down prod casing is admitting they know shoe track cement job failed.

No more guesses, no more speculation, no more coast guard hearings, facts are known and now admitted and now proven. Moment BP announced static kill plans, they admitted they knew what happened. Static kill would be possible only if shoe track cement failed.

Now let's go back to April 20:

"Transocean has disclosed that an April 12th laboratory test of the foamed cement indicated it had not solidified at 24 hours (0 psi compressive strength) and needed 48 hours to strongly solidify (1,590 psi)."

"For reasons that only BP can explain, the casing was pressured up to 2,500 psi for 30 minutes around 11:00 AM to conduct a “positive test”– only 10-1/2 hours after pumping [cement]."

Doing positive test after only 10 hours of cement setting up when lab test showed 48 hrs was needed, was horribly negligent, criminally negligent in my opinion, given the stakes involved.

"The OIM stated during testimony that the company man had presented a work program for the day that did not include a negative test, and the OIM said he insisted that one be included.

"The results from the [negative] test were anomalous with more fluid backflow than anticipated and the drillpipe pressure never having dropped to zero – it only went as low as 273 psi."

"While evaluating the test results, rig personnel noticed that the mud level in the riser had dropped about 50 barrels, which was an indication that the annular preventer had leaked, allowing the heavy mud above the riser to drop into the seawater test area, thus interfering with test results."

"The hydraulic pressure on the annular preventer was increased from 1,200 psi to 1,900 psi to stop the suspected leak, and the riser was refilled."

"The drillpipe and kill lines were closed while discussing test results and the drillpipe pressure unexpectedly rose to 1,250 psi in six minutes. Rig hands report that the toolpusher and company man considered and debated all the evidence for about an hour with the toolpusher asserting that the evidence was indicative of a problem and the company man asserting that the anomalous results were all caused by the riser leak."

"The second test began by bleeding the drillpipe pressure down to zero. It was expected that 5 barrels of backflow would be required to relieve the pressure but 15 barrels were observed. A valve at the top of the drillstring was then closed to monitor drillstring pressure. The pressure quickly rose to 790 psi and then fell, slowly rebuilding to 1,400 psi over 31 minutes."

"The kill line was then opened. A a Halliburton employee testified that the kill line flowed and spurted. The kill line was shut and the pressure on the drillstring returned to 1,400 psi."

"Seawater was then pumped down the kill line to make sure it was full and unobstructed and it was opened again to observe backflow. After a small volume of backflow, the flow through the kill line stopped."

"The fact that there was no backflow on the kill line was accepted as a good result on the negative test despite the [1400 psi] pressure on the drillpipe, which normally would have been zero in a correctly-performed test." [emphasis mine]

Note: Zero kill line flow with 1400 psi on drill pipe would be possible only if kill line re-filled with mud from leaking annular preventer ...or kill line valve on BOP was closed ...accidentally?

"However, it is possible that the toolpusher was expecting anomalous results on the drillpipe from the mud that had entered the test area and interpreted all of the drillpipe pressure and excess flowback as being from that factor. If so, that would be an extraordinarily deficient negative test procedure and interpretation." [emphasis mine]

Negative test, if read properly and heeded, would have signaled (a) leaking annular preventer and / or (b) failed cement job.

In either case, 1400 psi on drill pipe should have made everyone say "Stop, no further, let's figure out what's wrong here."

"Following the negative test that was interpreted as successful, the annular preventer was opened and seawater pumping was continued down the drillpipe to displace all mud out of the riser with seawater."

Proceeding with riser displacement was horribly negligent, criminally negligent in my opinion, given the stakes involved.

Can anyone see flaws in this logic? Speak up. Let's hear what you have to say.

(Italicized quoted material from https://www.energytrainingresources.com/content.aspx?page=SharedWrite-ups Part 3 - The Macondo Well)

rf73b. Excellent summary of the link to part 3 of the ETR piece, which is the best description of possible events I have seen. I am tempted to sign up for their Oil and Gas Boot Camp. Just to see the two hour documentary on drilling!
I would not rush to condemn individuals and I doubt if any one involved set out to be criminally negligent. We had the same situation with Piper Alpha. If you prosecuted one person you would have to prosecute dozens. I read that PA was described as an "organic failure of multiple systems, multiplied by some incompetence; unclear delegation powers and a lot of arrogance". As far as I remember, Occidental Petroleum was never prosecuted as a company. Oxy, paid up; packed up and left the North Sea.

fr - Way back when we could only speculate on how the well blew but the info seemed to point to cmt/shoe failure. Blow up the annulus was the next best choice. The success of the bottom cmt job does go a long way to supporting that idea. If RW1 cut the annulus above the reservoir and finds no flow it should prove the case as best it ever will be.

And yes….from the start it was almost impossible to understand how they could see such signs of a kick and not react properly. In fact, after the point when it seemed obvious the well was coming in they continued to displace the mud with sea water. Eventually they’ll have full formal hearing. It should be very interesting how they try to explain the facts.

Rig hands report that the toolpusher and company man considered and debated all the evidence for about an hour with the toolpusher asserting that the evidence was indicative of a problem and the company man asserting that the anomalous results were all caused by the riser leak."

But then what happened at shift-change and when the two other (more senior) tool-pushers and OIM got involved? Testimony was that they believed the results were not due to communication with the reservoir. The terms "bladder effect" and "U-Tubing" were used to explain the anomaly. The trainee company man testified that he didn't know what a "bladder effect" was when he received that explanation from the Night Toolpusher but assumed his knowledge was lacking so went along with that "explanation" as he was only there to learn.

The Transocean Day Pusher and Trainee BP Company Man both thought initially they had a well problem. Tragically their views did not prevail.

http://www.deepwaterinvestigation.com/posted/3043/May_28_PDF.670171.pdf

1 By that time Wyman worked 6:00 a.m.

2 to 6:00 p.m. By that time his relief comes

3 up, which is Jason Anderson, which is a

4 toolpusher as well. So, you know, just

5 listening to them talk, you know, Jason he was

6 telling Wyman the same thing that -- that it

7 U-tubed. And Wyman, you know, he was still

8 like he couldn't believe that it U-tubed back

9 out the hole, you know. But, you know, I

10 guess we never really had a clear

11 understanding where the fluid went to.

--Subsea Supervisor Chris Pleasant

Lots of interesting speculation, expressed with a fair amount of urgency.

Your suggestion?

Sounds like the RW bottom kill is still the ultimate answer. I have felt all along that John Wright's services would be the action that would drive the final nail in the coffin.

Actually NOLA.com had the first one this morning. the morning. I was wondering what TOD petropros would have to say about it. I sort of got the impression that the RW's are de riguer in this situation. I think we should hold the BP execs and Thad hostage on Grand Isle until we know for sure what's around the corner. Looks to me like they're all bookin' as fast as they can.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-12/bp-may-not-need-to-finish-drill...
"...BP Plc may not finish drilling a relief well to its Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said during a conference call today."

also
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/08/gulf_leaders_wary_over_waverin.html
"...Allen also hopes he may be able to step down from his post by late September or early October, handing off the responsibility. Allen, who has served in the role since May 1, said he'll only do that if the well is definitively shown to be in no danger of leaking again...The discussion of a possible departure, though, raised the ire of some officials who say Washington is too eager to turn the page on the spill.
"Are they planning on closing up shop? Absolutely. Am I sad Thad Allen is going to be gone? Absolutely not..."

And so much for no oil to be seen.

"...http://blog.al.com/live/2010/08/oil_washes_up_on_baldwin_count.htmlIn a Thursday morning e-mail to local government leaders, a U.S. Coast Guard official acknowledged that what had washed up was being classified as subsurface oil -- something that cleanup officials have been slow to acknowledge..."

A minor point, but usually text inside quotes indicates a direct quote, but what Allen said the next day was ...

Admiral Allen: We actually released the pressure readings from the, after the cementing, the static kill yesterday. They were all within tolerance, and I don’t have them in front of me right now but we can, we can get them to you.

8/10 briefing.

As for getting pressure, see Rockman's post above, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6845#comment-700506

I've been drilling down on the question....What was the mud weight inside the of the production casing when the blowout occurred?

At the time of the negative tests, which continued until about 7:00 pm, the mud weight average in the well was about 13.10 ppg. This assumes the casing held salt water (8.54 ppg) down to 8367' with the remainder filled with 14 ppg mud. The 5000' riser had sea water inside of the 5 1/2" drill pipe (107 bbls) with 1264 bbls of 14 ppg mud and 454 ppg spacer outside of the drill pipe.

A sheen test was performed when the spacer was circulated to the surface at 9:08 pm. The average mud weight in the well at the time of the sheen test was about 12 ppg. This assumes the bulk of the 16 ppg spacer was still in the riser with salt water in the rest of the well down to 8367' and 14 ppg mud below 8367'.

With the spacer completely ciculated out, the average mud weight would have dropped to about 11.5 ppg.

When you add in some ECD effect while the sea water was being displaced, the well was close to balanced with the 12.6 ppg Macondo Sand.

Seems odd that the rig experienced such a massive kick.

Can anyone tell me what Skandi ROV 1 is looking at? Is it the blow out preventer?

It is hovering above and a little ways from the BOP looking at it.

The light you see is another ROV inspecting the BOP that there is no feed too, so we do not know whether he is looking at a leak or what.

When is the last time it was seen clearly? I have not seen it since the static kill was done?

The reason I ask is because I called Rep's Markey and Bilirakis today to see why the feed quality is so poor and ask if they are trying to get BP to restore the quality to pre-static kill conditions. Markey's people are allegedly looking into it and getting back to me. My own rep's staffers told me that they are BP's cameras, BP fixed the problem, and BP can do what they want now.

Call me a cynic or whatever, but I want to see evidence that it is fixed--I thought that was the whole point of the video being publicly available anyway. Central Command has not said that the job is done to my knowledge--not until the RW(s) is drilled or the RW is determined to be unnecessary, officially. Isn't testing still underway?

Yesterday or the day before they showed a lot of closeups of the BOP with a leak on top coming out the stack. They cut that feed though so we do not know if it is still leaking.

To me the leak looked about equivalent to a garden hose worth leaking. Not sure how they keep the pressure on.

Get the number for the call in phone conferences to Allen and Wells and if you get lucky you can ask a question about the feeds. A memeber at the #theoildrum has been doing that.

Thad Allen was asked about ROV feeds again today ...

Trip Hannah: Yes, Admiral, thanks for taking the question and thank you for your service. The question goes back to something you addressed this last Monday concerning the ROV feeds. Specifically the BOA subsea vessel, has two ROVs operating at the well site.

They're doing the majority of the work at the well bore and at the BOP and stack and those ROVs are the Millennium 36 and the Millennium 37. You took a question Monday for a fellow at the Daily Kos and said that you would look into getting those feeds out.

Thad Allen: First of all we checked with BP and during this period where there is low level activity out there some of those ROVs have been taken out of service for maintenance. And I don't think there is any other explanation other than that. We will double check, if its' anything other than we will post a statement.

http://app.restorethegulf.gov/go/doc/2931/859323/

Didn't sound like an answer to me.

I doubt you could find anyone on here to dispute the fact that the video feeds have gone downhill in the last week. In quality and abundance.

Good, since the poor quality is contributing to the rumour factory.

NAOM

Ruby, why not have Markey provide a government paid for rov to keep track of things, they seem to spend money without cause or reason anyway.

From Discovery News:

Ocean Color Can Steer Hurricanes

The most powerful, deadly storms on the planet are beholden to the tiniest of marine creatures.

According to a new study, plankton have the ability to determine whether clusters of tropical thunderstorms spin up into monster hurricanes, and to steer mature storms across large swaths of the ocean.

SLIDE SHOW: Among the most mysterious events on planet Earth are the colossal blooms of plankton in oceans, seas and lakes. Take a look at some of the most beautiful displays from space....

Read more at:
http://news.discovery.com/earth/microscopic-plankton-steer-hurricanes.html

Fascinating stuff. And from one of the slideshow captions:

Scientists have also discovered signs that these gigantic expanses of single-celled organisms might behave like a single massive beast. If so, these are superorganisms -- the largest on the planet.

Ooo-EEEE-oooo...

NO NO NO!!!!!!!!!!

I just got comfortable with mushrooms being the the largest superorganisms.

There is also a fungus called Armillaria ostoyae, or the honey mushroom, that forms fungal mats as long as 8.9 km² (2200 square acres or 3.5 square miles), although there is disagreement as to whether the entire mat qualifies as a single organism. The largest example of this fungus can be found in a national forest in Oregon. It is estimated to be 2,400 years old.

Thanks. Fascinating stuff indeed.

Yes thanks OP. That was indeed a very interesting article. Lots to think about.

Daily Mail:

The threat of the 'fake fishermen': How BP may be paying out millions in oil spill compensation to fraudsters

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1302463/How-BP-paying-...

I was saying from day one on WKRG's website to watch for Acorn to bus claimants in from all over.

I have a hard time believing that because from the very start we heard stories how BP wanted all the documentation from the Fisherman, they were having to present income receipts for up to a year to be compensated and then the checks were still not coming in.

Poor BP. How many thousands of square miles are still closed to fishing?

Maybe because some were making more money " skimming" than fishing.

Mysterie d'jour. I get the feeling they are about to confess.

Sounds like you are still short BP stocks ...

The majority of the disposal operations were carried out under cover of darkness. The areas along the beaches and coastal Islands where the dead animals were collected were closed off by the U.S. Coast Guard. On shore, private contractors and local law enforcement officials kept off limits the areas where the remains of the dead animals were dumped, mainly at the Magnolia Springs landfill by Waste Management where armed guards controlled access. The nearby weigh station where the Waste Management trucks passed through with their cargoes was also restricted by at least one sheriff's deputies in a patrol car, 24/7.
Robyn Hill, who was Beach Ambassador for the City of Gulf Shores until she became so ill she collapsed on the job one morning, was at a residential condominium property adjacent to the Gulf Shores beach when she smelled an overwhelming stench. She went to see where the odor was coming from and witnessed two contract workers dumping plastic bags full of dead birds and fish in a residential Waste Management dumpster, which was then protected by a security guard. Within five minutes, a Waste Management collection truck emptied the contents and the guard departed.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/08/bp-is-hiding-dead-animals-to-avoi...

Looks like they slipped one under TFHG!!! Hangin' in Hooters a little too much, me thinks.( Either that or out chasin' beachmummsie's girlfiend )

They always do it at night dont you know, especialy on all this public and private property with all the hired hands who never speak a word, excepting a few that want their 15 munites of glory. Never seen where private contrators could not allow access to to an area such as this.
I have been a contrator and in no way would I have the power to allow ingress and egress from this.

Question-

I am trying to Determine the if this is a valid statement...

"BP executive Kent Wells admitted on August 10, that pressure readings from the Macondo well are at 4,200 PSI. If the cementing process has been successful, the pressure readings would be zero, according to the Daily Hurricane."

When people report someone as "admitting" something, they are already implying some deception, which suggests some bias in the reporter's perspective. I believe Rockman addressed this issue earlier.

I don't believe that that is an accurate statement. Daily Hurricane: "At the seafloor, the well should have no more than 2,200 psi on it, and conceivable less, if the hydrostatic of the mud in the closed well had overcome reservoir pressure." (http://dailyhurricane.com/2010/08/adm-allen-confused---so-now-is-everybo...)

A darn sight more considering the well has a head of around a mile of mud.

NAOM

I don't know where you'd put it, NAOM, but upthread, ROCKMAN says "If you're expecting any pressure measured anywhere in the sytem to be zero you will always be disappointed. If there were 13,000' of cmt completely filling the csg the pressure at the bottom of the well will be almost 12,000 psi (the pressure in the rock at that depth). And the pressure in the BOP while the riser is still attached will be over 3,200 psi. Even after the riser is removed and the BOP is just sitting on the sea floor with the well completely plugged the pressure in the BOP will be 2,300 psi (the pessure of the water column)."

Exactly.

NAOM

Thanks! Seems the reported embellished the PSI all the way down to zero... that is a big difference in statements.

With that being said how accurate was that article about the static kill... "In actuality, this "static kill" did nothing that BP and Allen said it would do. Certainly the well is not dead or "static". It hasn't accelerated the relief well, but it has obscured the well's pressures, making it more difficult to kill. Hence, these new tests to figure out what's going on"

http://dailyhurricane.com/2010/08/adm-allen-confused---so-now-is-everybo...

They're always testing, as far as I can tell, to figure out what's going on with as much precision as possible. Making the statement "Certainly the well is not dead or 'static'" without having the data that they're looking at seems a bit foolhardy, but it's immaterial in the end. Bottom kill, if successful, will kill the well. For now, despite ROV watchers freaking out about video, there's no appreciable amount of oil leaking from it.

LMAO... you'd probably consider me as one of those "crazy" ROV watchers...

... but I'd bet you've noticed that there's no oil on the surface.

I know that is what is being reported, and I am sure it is due partially to the use of COREXIT

Actually, it's not. There's no oil at the surface around the area of the wellhead because there hasn't been any oil gushing from it. No oil, no COREXIT needed.

I have seen several feeds that appear COREXIT spraying is still happening...

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/report-rov-using-wand-to-clean-leaking...

This second one is a little annoying because she was not directly recording from the feed

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo3E9ZWvt9w

And there are more... I have a spill page on FB and am constantly getting video's linked to my page from others...

Using a wand to deal with a small leak at the BOP is plausible but there are posters here who are sure it was just a high pressure spray of water. I remember vividly what this was like July 14. This isn't like that at all. I can see that the gusher has stopped. If there's no oil erupting from the well, then what's to disperse?

I think it was just a water pressure wand, he carried the pump motor around in his drawer and the wand was hooked to it.

Missy,

I'd be as pleased as punch to catch BP in a lie about using dispersants, but I haven't seen them using it recently. Here is a short video, of them hosing off the connector between the capping stack and the BOP that I captured on Aug 8. It was of the few times that I recently saw a good high resolution close-up of the BOP. I see a wand being used to hose off the hydrates, but it doesn't look anything like the dispersants that they were using before. Here's the whole 40 minute video that I captured (using Videolan VLC, open source free software), if you care to watch.

I'm no expert; judge for yourself.

That is the same recorder I use too.... I will check out your vids though... I am on the fence right now on the issue... I remember seeing it full on back in April too and this is definitely not the same Volume as before.

Oil may be gushing or leaking from somewhere else due to this blowout. We do not know that it isn't. Or it may not have all "disappeared" as is being suggested by some media articles.

I concur with brother snake.

However, if you want to engage in a thought experiment, let's say that oil was being released AND Corexit was being applied to it (I don't think it is, but for our thought experiment, let's say it is). Even when Corexit is used, a significant portion of the oil/Corexit mix still comes to the surface. The amount of oil on the surface prior to the static kill was proof of this hypothesis. Any resulting oil/Corexit mix would produce a surface manifestation (an oil slick) that couldn't be hidden.

Oil leaking from the BOP or oil leaking from the bottom itself anywhere around the wellhead or elsewhere for that matter MUST produce a physical manifestation on the surface.

No slick, no oil leaking.

BTW, remote sensing from satellites is so good at detecting oil slicks that it can be use to detect and study natural oil seeps that flow much, much less oil that this well would.

I just can't believe this well is leaking until somebody produces an image of an oil slick.

snake, I think the issue is why they have to keep pumping mud, which implies losses into the rock somewhere deep or shallow, and separately if there is a subsurface gas leak, which wouldn't necessarily show on the surface. Suppose the RW is abandoned or fails for any reason. They can't P&A from the top, can't pull the BOP, can't move the fleet off station if the well constantly needs more mud pumped.

I've been wrong about many things. But the well is flowing subsurface.

Head on up to the second post in the thread.

That is what I have been thinking... well more like wondering...

Hey A,

I don't read into what they are saying that they are pumping to move any volume of mud, only pumping to increase the pressure. Reportedly, they are pumping up the pressure to 4,200 psi. With the pumps off, with 5k feet of mud above the wellhead, pressure would be 3,400 psi.

I read it as pumping up 800 psi of additional pressure.

It is not clear to me why it is continuing.

Avon -- just one possibility to explain the mud loss: as they were pumping the top kill it appeared they were pushing mud out of the cap. That wouldn't be a surprise since the cap has been leaking all along. Given the mud pressure at the cap was about 1,000 psi higher that the water pressure any leaks should have been losing mud to the GOM. Thus to maintain the same pressure on the cmt and the well they would have to continually pump a volume of mud equal to what’s leaking out. That fact doesn’t disprove the possibility of other leaks you described. But it is one reason for them to keep some mud pumping down.

Missy Lynn, I chased that statement down. Maryann Tobin of "The Political Spin Examiner" has been scaremongering, twisting and flat out lying the entire length of this catastrophe. There's been way too much of it from her to believe that she simply erred.

snakehead- That's kinda what I was thinking.

Missy -- Perhaps the problem is that folks don’t understand how we use “static”. It just means the well isn’t flowing. A well can be shut in, or static, and still have 15,000 psi on it. Likewise when we say a well is “killed” that doesn’t mean there’s no pressure and it won’t flow. It just means there is a sufficient mud weight in the csg to keep it from flowing. The only place in the system of the BP well where pressure would be zero is at the surface on the drill rig. At the base of the riser it would be around 3,200 psi and more if they have the mud pumps running. That might explain the 4,200 psi number he's using. Either that or their mud weight is higher than the one I'm using for the calulation. At the base of the csg the pressure would be around 12,000 psi. But with the kill pill in the csg being slightly greater than 12,000 psi the well won’t flow. That’s a static well by definition.

If the csg were completely filled with cmt and there was no way for the reservoir to ever flow up the well again, the pressure at the cap would still be around 3,200 psi from the weight of the mud in the riser. And if they disconnected the riser the pressure at the cap would still be around 2,300 psi from the weight of the water column.

The itch to confess and show us the BOP is building.

Amphipoda again? BP live feed from Ocean Intervention III ROV 2

Nice compression artifacts. Again. Shadows and lens flares are not oil. But I'm sure you'll reject that because of who's saying it, and use it to bolster your delusions.

Don't be too sure--or get too comfortable in your self-righteous cozy chair. I don't claim to "know" anything. But I can plainly understand that information is not forthcoming from those who know in the amounts that it would take for the rest of us to draw sound conclusions.

Amphipods, artifacts, and arm-chair amateurs abound without access to all the information!

You're right - we don't have the data they're looking at. But when has there ever been any kind of priority to give the public free access to all the data in real time about anything?

OJ Simpson? Tiger Woods? Michael Jackson, Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton...?

Spot on. People Mag and E! ought to be handling this for us.

Hopefully, the day will come when we have a right to crucial and complete information. Only then can we actualize our potentials.

Hopefully, the day will come when we have a right to crucial and complete information. Only then can we actualize our potentials.

Some will use that potential to see evidence of fairies, aliens walking among us, the necessity to eliminate ethnic groups, etc. Lots of people are nuts and they like it that way.

Shine your flashlight in heavy fog on a dark night, same, or maybe you`ve never been in fog at night.

Thanks for explaining the pressure plots and process upthread, folks!

Are there plans now to actually properly pressure test the cementing (positive and negative directions) to assess whether the well is now officially dead?

Should they not be able to tell if the well is sealed, allowing them to safely remove the original BOP and exchange it for a new one?

What would be the result if they removed the mudlines from the BOP entirely and allow the 2250 psia external pressure to be the only pressure on the well? Is this well going to flow or not?

What would be the result if they removed the mudlines from the BOP entirely and allow the 2250 psia external pressure to be the only pressure on the well? Is this well going to flow or not?

A rhetorical question?

Bedtime for this bonzo.

Seems to me, a non-oil field person, that they have pretty well established that they have good cement blocking the path from the reservoir thru the production casing.

But there is a second possible path - from the reservoir up thru the annulus. I believe that they have established that there is no wide-open path, that would have shown up in the pressure vs. volume data as the casing was being filled with mud in the initial stage of static top kill.

But the condition of the original annulus cement above the reservoir is not yet knowable, and it was part of the same job that obviously failed between the reservoir and inside of the casing, and is therefore not to be trusted.

There is also uncertainity about how much pressure the casing hangar can withstand in preventing flow from the annulus into the BOP should the annulus cement be faulty.

Thus it seems to me prudent to keep pressure in the BOP at this time just to make sure the annulus won't flow. Once the relief well enters the annulus, then the annulus cement and hangar seal can be further evaluated. It could very well be that both have been fine all along, that the annulus has no oil/gas in it at all and is still full of the mud that was pushed up it ahead of the original cement job.

Everybody seems to accept that when the relief well intercepts, there's going to be a bunch of mud and cement pumped into the annulus. But what if the seals ARE good, what if there's no outlet for the fluids that are already there? Do they up the pressure until the casing hangar yields?

Or do they, at that point, decide it's safe to swap out the BOP and reenter the well to finish the plug and abandon process?

Frank

And now for some cognitive dissonance...

bookmark image
(Photo credit: Christo and Jeanne-Claude @ http://www.christojeanneclaude.net/)

The Barrel -- Once again, US oil exports explained... poorly

By John Kingston on May 9, 2010 6:12 PM | 1 Comment | No TrackBacks
... if we look at the latest release on energy from the Center for American Progress.

On May 6, CAP issued a press release whose thesis was pretty basic: the US exports oil in quantities that are about equal to the amount of oil produced in PADD 2. A bit under half of that is offshore. So just don't export, and we can cut back on the dangerous act of offshore drilling.
path: Public ~> Energy
Related Linkoriginally posted: 2010-08-12 21:17:54

Did you know,

the US also was reported to be shipping out 252,000 b/d of gasoline, more than half of it going to Mexico with a good chunk to several impoverished Latin American and Central American nations; and 389,000 b/d of distillate, again, most of it to Latin America but with a significant amount to the Netherlands, whose terminals in places like Rotterdam serve as the basis for further shipment into a distillate-short European continent.

bookmark image

EIA dot gov -- Exports

Notes: Crude oil exports are restricted to: (1) crude oil derived from fields under the State waters of Alaska's Cook Inlet; (2) Alaskan North Slope crude oil; (3) certain domestically produced crude oil destined for Canada; (4) shipments to U.S. territories; and (5) California crude oil to Pacific Rim countries...[snip] Release Date: 7/29/2010
Next Release Date: Last Week of August 2010

path: Public ~> Energy
originally posted: 2010-08-12 21:10:13


EIA dot gov -- Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries

May 2010 Import Highlights: July 29, 2010

The top five sources of US crude oil imports for May were Canada (1.997 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.290 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.093 million barrels per day), Venezuela (1.011 million barrels per day), and Nigeria (1.004 million barrels per day).
path: Public ~> Energy
originally posted: 2010-08-12 20:58:00

So, on balance, if you subscribe to the notion transition to renewables will require a running-down of extractors, in an orderly and methodical manner over several dozen years, then US non-renewable energy exports should equal near 0. This will disturb other related markets and in the short term may force some refiners to close or move. In other words, self-sufficiency should not be limited to only renewables.

By the by here's what "PADD 2" means...

PADD: Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts

Popular media now reporting Thad Allen saying, "temporary fix may have become permanent."

To Which Matt Simmons would say: "I told ya'll last month that the relief wells were an absolute sham and just a diversion"

To Which the other conspiracy theorists would say: "So, from the start, they knew the relief wells would most likely not work cause they knew most likely that the casing's blown out and knew that the static kill made little sense but that it would be an oopsey-now we REALLY can't do the bottom kill...but we've got some sea-floor leaks and other concerns - HEY, we've got two relief-wells ready to go, so why don't we back-up, sidetrack and start producing from them cause the leaking should be alleviated by the producing wells...blah blah blah - This is the best it can be"

Or somethin like that the CTs are saying.

I mean, if producing from the well is an answer, what's the big deal?

What's involved in getting production rigs on site and in action?

are there ways to Super-produce from wells? They already run 24/7, don't they? Bigger Bore...

More Wells? 10 wells 25 wells. Make it a free-for-all Bring your own drill - get it in the right hole - keep what you find.

Art? Hmmmm.....

From Vogue Italia http://www.vogue.it/en/magazine/cover-story/2010/08/water--oil

More photos at the link above. Sample of accompanying text.

We've all watched in shock as the black tide spread ceaselessly throughout the Gulf of Mexico... (snip)

In the face of this dramatic, catastrophic stalling, the images of Steven Meisel make up a precious reportage that delivers an artistic impact. Unforgettable images, created purposely to unnerve the viewer, capture the reality of the situation...

Precious might not be my word of choice. Shock-art, or poor taste, maybe. I am into photography and art and avant-garde expressionism of current events can be fine, but...

Oil washes up on Baldwin County beaches

Since early last week BP has rejected claims from Orange Beach that city contractors are regularly encountering and collecting oil from inshore waters, including Cotton Bayou, Terry Cove and Bayou St. John, city officials said.

"BP keeps telling us there is no oil, to skim or otherwise, and we keep telling them there is," said Orange Beach Coastal Resource Manager Phillip West. "We're skimming it."

BP spokesman Ray Melick said that company officials "don't believe what the mayor's crew is finding is oil."

To resolve the dispute, Orange Beach, which is doing its own water quality testing independent of the BP-funded cleanup effort, has agreed, at the oil company's request, to call Alabama Department of Environmental Management scientists to skimming sites to collect samples for third-party analysis.

"There is a dispute between the two crews that we need to resolve," Melick said. "The only way we know how to do that is science."

City officials said samples collected last week from local waters tested positive for the presence of hydrocarbons, but BP rejected those findings because state regulators were not involved. An invitation to jointly collect samples on Thursday was turned down by a local BP official because of the morning's stormy weather, said Kit Alexander, Orange Beach's director of Engineering and Environmental Services.

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/08/oil_washes_up_on_baldwin_count.html

Somebody mentioned this overnight, but here's the T-P's story:

BP may have already, inadvertently, killed the Gulf oil well

... "We may be the victims of our own success here," Allen said. "If the cement is already there it would obviate the need to do the bottom kill."

Though he called it a "low-probability outcome," Allen's comments were the first time he has publicly suggested that the well could be sealed in any way other than by having a relief well intercept the Macondo well 18,000 feet below the Gulf's surface and pump it with mud and cement. ...

They're reviewing a pressure test they ran yesterday to see whether there's oil in the annulus and, if so, whether it's static or coming from the reservoir.

... Scientists believe there is a chance that cement pumped into the top of the well during the static kill procedure traveled down the well column, into the reservoir and then back up the well's annulus, an outer shell, trapping about 1,000 barrels of oil inside but essentially sealing the well from the bottom.

"There's a chance that happened. We don't know," Allen said. "That's why we're conducting the test." ...

Allen said Thursday that scientists and engineers are concerned that if the static kill resulted in a cement plug inside the annulus, pumping it with more mud and cement would increase pressure inside the well, sending the now static oil shooting up the well column where it could damage the blowout preventer atop the well and, perhaps, escape into the water above.

Allen said scientists want to be sure they don't engage in "a series of events" that would cause that to happen.

"This whole pressure test is really in an overabundance of caution," Allen said.

If pressure in the well stays level during the test, that will mean there is cement in the annulus and it is either fully or partially killed, Allen said. If there is an immediate rise in pressure during the test, that would mean that any oil in the annulus is shooting forth from the reservoir and that there is not a cement plug separating the two. ...

More overnight news from T-P:

BP cuts oil spill payments to businesses in half in August

"The reason it's 50 percent is that partway through the month we were passing it over to Ken Feinberg," BP spokesman Robert Wine said. "It's not the end of it; it's just the payment for the part of the month we knew we'd still be in control."

The narratives in this one illustrate why payees have grown little trust in BP.

Alabama sues BP over Gulf oil spill

And Transocean too. The AG filed identical suits despite the guv's wishes to try out-of-court settlement first. Hmm.

UPDATE: More from the P-R.

One of King's lawsuits named BP and its affiliates as defendants. The other named several companies that were involved in the well or the drilling process -- Transocean Ltd., Halliburton Energy Services Inc., Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Mitsui & Co., and Cameron International Corp.

King said in his statement that BP's recent sale of assets in North America and Egypt for $7 billion to Apache Corp. might be a way to limit the amount of money that U.S. courts could reach to satisfy any judgments.

He also said that BP is "secretly working to gain a legal advantage" by preparing a report to argue that it was not grossly negligent in the spill.

King's lawsuits claim that the defendants were guilty of a laundry list of faulty actions that led to the spill, including:

  • Failing to install a remote acoustic switch to prevent oil from leaking into the Gulf.
  • Inadequately training personnel.
  • Failing to follow rules and regulations in operating the rig.
  • Failing to react to danger signs on the rig.
  • Misrepresenting the size of the disaster.
  • Using dangerous chemical dispersants in the cleanup.



Gov. Riley's all "WTF?" but the mayor of Orange Beach is really pissed: "All I can say is he'd better not mess up what we've been working our tails off for, which is getting claims paid for the people who live down here."