What do we do about unemployment?
Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 1, 2010 - 10:15am in The Oil Drum: Campfire
In much of the US, we have been living through a time of high unemployment. Among those working, many are taking part time jobs, when they really want full-time jobs. Some are in school (yet again), hoping that with retraining, they may find a new job. Lack of suitable jobs are a problem in many other parts of the world, as well.
If recession goes with peak oil, then unemployment is likely a symptom we will see more and more of. Theoretically, it is only a temporary situation--if the world transitions to another energy source, then there may well be jobs. If renewables somehow generate enough net energy to replace what we have lost from oil and natural gas, then, with the new infrastructure, there may be enough jobs to go around (although with their record so far, this transition looks at best like a long, very rocky one). Or if we go back to life more like it was before fossil fuels, manual labor will be in great demand, especially for growing food, obtaining water, and making clothing. If we build factories that can be operated without fossil fuels, people will also be needed to operate them.
But how can we handle the transition, if it leads to more and more unemployment?
Some questions:
1. Is it possible to start a transition to a world that uses less scarce raw materials and more labor? If so, how can we do this in a way that provides more work opportunities for the unemployed?
2. How do we connect up potential workers with the raw materials that they need? It doesn't help if there are 1 million would-be farmers, but they all live in apartments in the city, and have no access to land. Land is expensive, and the unemployed are mostly poor.
3. Should we be doing more to share with the unemployed -- making certain that unemployment insurance and health care is available to them even if it means higher taxes, helping them with education and job placement, and perhaps taking them into our homes?
4. Are there things governments can do to ease the transition?
5. Are there things the unemployed can do to help themselves and other unemployed people?
The conservative view is that if we eliminate minimum wage laws, unemployment insurance, worker's compensation, collective bargaining legislation and the whole raft of other legislation dealing with labor issues then the unemployment rate will go down substantially.
But some of us don't want to do that.
Pasttense - You forgot to add shackling, whipping, branding, starving, raping, and a whole host of other historical tactics.
If there is a surplus of workers then there is always someone who will do more work for less pay/conditions somewhere..
The only solution is that working class breed at less than replacement rates. When there are less workers than managers, workers get better conditions.
That would be from the Guido Sarducci school of economics.
Supply an'-a deman'.
That's it. Next topic...
The Black Death in Europe shows this is not true. With losses of 30% - 50% of the population and an entire economy dependent on manual labor, workers should have had better conditions. Just the opposite was true.
People have been conned into the idea that it is OK for a tiny percent of humanity to control the resources of the planet and the rest need to scramble, beg and be grateful for a "job" producing more wealth for the few.
We consider ourselves "advanced". Ha. I think our tribal ancestors would think we are spineless idiots.
I don't know what history you're reading, but I've never read anything that supports that. The decrease in population and shortage of labor during the 14th century led to higher wages and better material conditions in general. The old feudal system finally fell apart, as lords were unable to hold peasants to the land any longer when they could simply pick up and find work anywhere else for wages. More individuals at all levels below the top found that they were able to choose their circumstances. The ranks of the "nobility" swelled with new-moneyed families, and the trade in faux titles and documentations was brisk. Monasticism also suffered a great blow, as there was no longer a surplus of youth without land or means, at risk of living on their parents or siblings charity.
Tuchman dwells on the period extensively in "A Distant Mirror", but I'm pretty sure Toynbee and a host of others would repeat the scenario above...
Bingo!
The Black Death was an elite's nightmare.
Labor was in demand, and living standards rose.
If only we could stop reproducing----
The US would also be a nightmare for the elite if they hadn't managed to have 125,000 legal immigrants per month plus as many illegals as can scramble past our two-wire border fences.
It might have depended where in Europe. In England the yeoman took sirnames after the black death suggesting an elevation in social status. This wasn't true for the rest of Europe though where most working peoples only received sirnames after a decree by Napoleon, some 500 years later.
I suggest that you learn a little bit more history. The Black Death transformed the economy of Europe from a fuedal system to a wage based economy. Instead of people being chattel and bound to the lands they were born - they became free to move about and seek different occupations. Instead of farming a plot of land for the local Manor - they rented the land, grew their own crops and sold them for a profit.
"But despite misery and hunger, the pressure of human numbers went unrelieved. The civilization that this economy supported, the civilization of the central Middle Ages, might have maintained itself for the indefenite future. That did not happen; an exogenous factor the Black death broke the Malthusian deadlock, And in doing so it gave the the Europeans the chance to rebuild their society along much different lines." (The Black Death and the Transformation of the West, 1997, p39)
(1) Herlihy, David, 1997, The Black Death and the Transformation of the West, Cambridge Massachusetts, Harvard University Press
Medevial history has been a hobby of mine.
Activated05b
I'm starting to become interested in this topic after a visit to Florence last summer. Do you have a reading list available?
- Jeff
What aspect are you interested in? I have an extensive library of books on medeval Europe which I have collected over the past 30 years.
If you are looking for a basic overview I recommend: The Middle Ages, by Morris Bishop
If you are interested in a book that discusses human history in terms of technology and the effects of technology: Connections, by James Burke.
If you want a provocitave view on the idea that we invent technology to change our enviornment - then we adapt to that new enviornment try: The Axmaker's Gift, by James Burke
Life in Medieval Times, by Marjorie Rowing is an interesting look at everyday life
For light reading you can try The Optimist's Giude to History, Doris Flexter
For a history of mankinds blunders read : 'It Seemed Like A Good Idea . . .' by William Forstchen and Bill Fawcett
I recommend that people start doing what ever it takes, lie cheat steal, to get large amounts of money now while the gettin's good because that is what will determine who lives and who dies.
All of those who are in the know, (TPTB and a layer or two of minions), understand this and are doing just that as folks all over the internets like Zero Hedge and others have amply documented.
There may have been a time when humanity had the ability or at least the potential to rise above our base instincts but now we are entering into a phase of what Darwinian loves to point out as "the rapacious animal" domination. Dog eat Dog.
Deal with it...or not.
Please listen to this if you don't understand my above comment;
http://miningstocktalk.com/mining-stock-talk-interviews-gerald-celente/
It's painful listening to Celente now.
I understand the sentiment, but I live in a smaller semi-rural town...the people here have very good memories and most day-to-day business and social life still relies heavily on trust. In a big city, maybe things are different, and survival would be different as well.
My own feeling is that an alternative is to make oneself useful and valuable to those around you. If you are knowledgeable on things that are necessary for survival, if you have skills that people need to survive, if you are healthy and sound and reliable, then you yourself will be more valuable than money, long after money looses all its value.
I'd also point out that to a person having those things above, money is worth very little, and a guy with nothing but money is still a charity case.
I am a Chartered Accountant (same as a CPA in the US) and I also have a Master of Sustainability Science degree. I have spent my entire post qualification career being a CFO of a range of companies of different sizes, some listed, some start ups, a dot bom etc. 3 months ago I was made redundant as the water recycling equipment manufacturer I was working for went bust. I am 54 now and despite applying for over 100 jobs I only made it to interview stage twice. Just when I was getting really despondent I sat back one day and wondered what else I could do. I am good with hands and in addition know quite a lot about electricity and water (I lived on a boat for 2 years sailing from UK to Oz), so I put two ads in the paper: one to be a "handyman" and the other to be a bookeeper/accountant. Now I am fully booked for a month ahead, mostly as a handyman. I spend my days fixing decks, doing yard work, lowering water tables in someones lawn, fixing cupboards, changing light fittings etc. While doing this I sometimes reflect on what kind of country Australia is where a CA/Masters graduate must do this to earn a bob or two.
True, I haven't replaced my income, but together with my wife's salary we have enough and truth be told I quite like doing what I am doing. On top of this I am grateful for my health and to the folk who hire me. We have worked out that we will be alright, we can still pay our (considerable) bills and I am quite happy. I do not worry about retirement because none of us will retire unless we are wealthy with significant ability to live independently in/of society to a great degree. We are trying to prepare our 1/2 acre and house to be as sustainable as possible. This includes configuring it for muti-generational living. Solar thermal and PV going in, with battery back-up, water tanks, vegie garden, fruit trees. We are at the front of a great learning curve and it is all quite exciting. I am also going to do retrain as an electrician specialising and discreet standalone neighbourhood systems. Lots to do.... You don't have to sink into a funk. Get on yer bike!
As the underlying primary and secondary economies (eg Service provided by nature and physical production) contract due to Climate Change, financial collapse and energy depletion it's normal that the tertiary economy (eg services) becomes unsustainable and folds.
Basically, the true economic base will be unable to support a large none productive population (ie. one mainly engaged in non productive services). This does not bode well for the West. And as the primary and secondary economies are contracting, they cannot take the fallout of unemployed from the tertiary economy. Unless they start to replace mechanical means by human labour, which will not happen by choice, the opposite will probably happen initially.
"Basically, the true economic base will be unable to support a large none productive population (ie. one mainly engaged in non productive services)."
This sounds a bit harsh on the first reading but there might be an important idea contained within this sentence.
Perhaps we need to separate work that brings in money from work that is actually productive or that delivers a much-needed service.
For example, if you could fashion new shoes out of leftover [or outgrown] shoe parts, you would be productive and welcome to be a member of a number of communities, whether you received money for your skills and labor or not. Plying your job would be productive work. If you received no money, would you still be unemployed?
"make oneself useful and valuable to those around you"
Well, Saildog it sounds like you are doing exactly that. I suspect The Chartered Accountant stuff might be history. The actual degree of M.Sc.(Sustainability) I suspect will stand you in good stead in years to come. If you are good with tools so much the better. I ask, hand tools or power tools? I am trying to collect together hand tools that with care will last for at least a couple of generations.
I absolutely agree with you about retirement. I am now 63 and have bought a seriously run down place in Hungary. My days are filled as far ahead as I can envisage. At least the spuds, onions, leaks, tomatoes and paprika are doing OK.
My best buy was to put a wood stove back in the kitchen. It has not cost me a penny to run so far. Dead branches, dead trees... and I have not even had to think about foraging for wood.
I just planted a little chestnut tree plantation. Six metres square - seven plants by seven plants. Garden posts
and firewood in however many years time.
Yep - get on yer bike! I will be doing that tomorrow when I have to make one of my increasingly infrequent trips into the local town. Only 10kms.
Hi tubaplayer, do you play csardas on your tuba? >;^)
Just curious what is your connection to Hungary and where in Hungary have you purchased your land?
Hi Fred,
My only connection to Hungary is that I now live here. I chose here a) because I could afford it and b) because they have a good legal system and there were very few formalities connected either with buying the property or getting residency.
I looked at several areas on paper - a young Hungarian guy in the UK helped me with that. When I came over I looked at many properties in this general area. It was a very small, trivial incident that influenced me to choose this particular place. For whatever reason the guy that was showing me the house took a detour round the village. When we got back to the main road someones chickens had escaped from their yard and a small band of youngsters were helping to round them up and herd them back to the yard. I thought "I like that".
The village is called Halogy. If you stick it in Google Earth it will find it - there is only one Halogy. It has to be the most self sufficient place I have ever lived. Many of the villagers make a living by growing excess produce and selling it.
And no - I was never just quite that good enough to play the csardas on the tubam but I knew a man who was ;
Szervusz
Steve
Half your luck Tuba.
Yes (assuming this is Australia) - our politicians like to puff their chest out and talk up the low unemployment Australia has enjoyed right through the GFC - best performance in the OECD, etc.
But if you actually go out there, things are very very slow in reality - retail, small business, manufacturing, etc - are all doing it tough, I reckon.
New South Wales actually and yes I agree - lots of people are doing it tough. Even so Oz is benefiting from the China syndrome, but for how long?
In the 19th Century, we didn't have any of those things. Unemployed poor people died of malnutrition-associated diseases, as well as their young and old dependents.
No. I don't want to go back to that.
"No. I don't want to go back to that," Lfeather.
What we may "want" is not the issue. We will have to adjust to circumstances that will come with a future of less resources and contracting economy. Besides, we will not "go back" to some past period of history. We can only go forward and adjust to the realities that we will face. Life will undoubtedly become more local and far less consumptive. Nonetheless, we will be starting our adjustment from a much different base than that of ancient societies. Unfortunately, that may not be to our advantage. One thing seems certain; the population will almost certainly decline. This decline will eventually reduce unemployment, because there will be less competition for available work.
As an example of what can happen. In the 90s Russia managed to wipe out a significant percentage of its male population over the age of 50 with a combination of unemployment, bad nutrition and alcoholism.
Actually if we eliminate minimum wage laws and unemployment insurance, workers compensation and allow everyone the right to work, things will get better. The Austrians have figured this out. But why change? Keep going down the same path and hire some illegals to remodel your home, take care of your yard and pick up your kids. Eventually someone will understand that people do things for a reason and they won't do things if the cost of doing so exceeds their foreseeable returns. It's not about how you think things should be and more about how things will be.
As long as we do not get rid of child labor laws, workplace safety codes, product safety regulations, etc.
Or we can have 14 year olds in the factory working 70 hour weeks, sawing their fingers off, providing us defective and/or contaminated products (Think recent incidents with certain product made in China).
And while we are justifiably chastising folks at home hiring illegals to do thewir chores, let's make sure we don't let the business owners off the hook for employing massive numbers of illegals in their packing houses, as maids for their hotel chains, as cooks in their restaurants, on the factory floor, in the fields and orchards. We certainly would never want to prosecute the folks at home while the majority of the illegal employers get to exploit their cheap labor, especially once minimum wage is abolished...would we?
It has been pointed out here and there that if there are two choices:
1) hiring "illegals" to provide services and products in your own backyard
2) outsourcing service and production work to another country (perhaps the same "illegals" but in their own homeland)
...the second choice runs your economy steadily into the ground, while the first choice has substantial benefits. Of course, going into a recession, one has to decide what to do with all those "illegals" who are no longer necessary in a shrinking economy...
I reject both choices.
I do not see it as practicable that we can round up and deport some 10M illegal aliens...but, we could do a much better job at controlling immigration.
It's very easy, just require every job to go through some sort of E-verify program. Require businesses to report who is on their payrolls and document their spending. Something like this in conjunction with biometric ids, it would be very easy to deport a few million illegal aliens, the rest would self deport. If you also required biometric ids to be scanned when purchasing things as simple as gasoline or groceries, it would be very difficult for individuals not supposed to be here to live as everything would need to be black market. Something like this could even work for making lives difficult for wanted criminals as well.
I severed 20 years and one month as an USAF officer with various security clearances etc...then I went to work for a defense contractor...hired 14 days after my day of retirement from the service. I had to present proof of citizenship to be hired...I brought in my passport, which is a 'gold standard'.
I also have to prove that I am registered with the elective Service...did I mention that I am a retired career officer? The deal is that I have to report my whereabouts to the Air Force Reserves every year, so that thaey can put me back in uniform any time they want according to the multi-tiered recall/mobilization system You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
My wife had to prove her citizenship to get a part-time gig working at the University bookstore.
Even my 18 and 20-year-olds had to prove their citizenship to work at Starbucks and Subway.
So, how is it that law-abiding clean-nosed citizens such as us have to prove our citizenship over and over again while clearly many businesses and industries get away with employing illegals?
What really made me laugh was that I had to prove to my defense contractor employer that I was married for Dental benefit reason etc. I showed my 21-year-old marriage certificate to my HR bubba, then explained that showing him an allegedly 21-year-old piece of paper proved exactly nothing...the best it did was indicate that I seemingly was married at a certain date 21 years and some odd days ago...I explained that I could have gotten divorced some time later, and could have still retained this piece of paper to show him.
What I Do NOT want is AZ 1070-type laws spreading across the land where I have to 'show my papers' any time Johnny Law feels like it. We are the U.S., not the former East Germany.
Yes, I am conflicted: I do not want to have to carry national identity papers everywhere I go in fear of the new Gestapo, but I also want to have strict immigration control. Maybe the best we can do is to not try to round up the ~ 10M illegals now, but wall off the Mexican border and beef up the Canadian border etc. I figure some 300,000 ICE folks are needed to provide 2-person mounted armed patrols 24/7/3 shifts per day every 1/20 of a statue mile along the U.S.-Mexican border. That figure includes folks in management, training, inspector General, Internal affairs, and a buffer for new hire/employee loss 'churn'.
I have not estimated what the budget would be...but we either put our money where our mouths are or give the whole issue a rest. Fund this ICE/territorial guards force from a VAT or some other tax...you gotta pay for what you do, or just stay with BAU and stop squawking about the issue. Pay the bill with commensurate decreases in out overseas military mis0adnentures.
If you want to stop immigration then try simply stopping the current trend of raping and pillaging the rest of the planet for the benefit of a few hundred million north Americans, and a few hundred million Europeans.
If the resources were EQUITABLY distributed then the problem would resolve itself. While YOU rely on the wealth removed (often forcibly and/or criminally) from other nations you have ZERO right to complain of others doing whatever it takes to join you.
Oh, are YOU a true native of the US, or part of a lineage that came and took land that was previously held by an indigenous group?
Please give the "indigenous peoples" line a rest. History is replete with hominids moving, fighting, displacing other hominids and no one group has any more claim to tears and sympathy than another. Plus it is past. Someone cannot help who they are born as and to raise it is an issue is to invite the very ethnic and racial hatreds with which you seemingly (and shallowly) disagree.
We have far more important problems here and now and into the near future than to worry about the crimes of someone's ancestors 100, 500, 1000, or even 10,000 years ago, ok? Just put the entire topic away. It's useless and simply provokes more ethnic and racial tension than it serves. Further, using it as a verbal bludgeon has been, at least in my observations when it is used, ended up being MORE likely to entrench ethnic and racial hatreds than not.
The issue is really about equitable distribution of resources (which you barely touched in passing) and raising a red herring that historically works counter to that goal is... counterproductive. Unless, of course, your personal agenda is actually to foster racial and ethnic hatred. But I assume that's not the case, is it? Or is it?
The resources line (which "I barely raised in passing" - but nobody else seems to have raised AT ALL...) is the important one.
The indigenous line was a response to the multitude of "protect our borders" / "illegal immigrant" responses.
Added to that it was a throwaway single line and not the main thrust of the comment. You are the one making it out to be the main thrust of the argument...
You wrote three paragraphs. One sentence in the second paragraph was related to resource issues. The entire rest of your post was deliberately inflammatory and related to indigenous peoples.
Thanks for categorizing yourself.
PARAGRAPH ONE:
If you want to stop immigration then try simply stopping the current trend of raping and pillaging the rest of the planet for the benefit of a few hundred million north Americans, and a few hundred million Europeans.
TALKING ABOUT INEQUITABLE RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS...
PARAGRAPH TWO:
If the resources were EQUITABLY distributed then the problem would resolve itself. While YOU rely on the wealth removed (often forcibly and/or criminally) from other nations you have ZERO right to complain of others doing whatever it takes to join you.
TALKING ABOUT INEQUITABLE RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS...
PARAGRAPH THREE
Oh, are YOU a true native of the US, or part of a lineage that came and took land that was previously held by an indigenous group?
TAKING A STAND ABOUT BULL "IMMIGRATION" STANCES ABOVE
Edit: My intention is not to inflame, merely to illuminate a blind spot that seems to be both common and huge if my reading of myriad articles recently is anything to go by.
My immigration stance is not 'bull' based on your say-so.
The U.S. has been in business with its present borders for a while, and possession is 9/10s of the law.
I can't undo what has been done in the past. But I can demand that our country establish and maintain strict immigration control.
Nothing about that has ANYTHING to do with racism or any other type of bigotry. It is a simple matter of the rule of law. I do not support the U.S World-wide archipelago of military bases and our various occupations...but the most basic use for a military is maintaining integrity of the country's borders.
If someone want to be a U.S. citizen, then he or she needs to apply lawfully and let the chips fall where they may.
Stop attempting to conflate other issues with this simple, discrete matter of the rule of law which is basic to any country's sovereignty.
Minor nit picking.
I believe the proper quote is ' possesion is 9 points of the law and there are only 13 '
GreyZone – I agree with you completely. Not only is the "indigenous peoples" argument counter-productive, but it strikes me as philosophically flawed. At the point where Europeans stole North America from the indigenous peoples, those peoples had been here for several thousand years, their population was fairly extensive (before European plagues wiped them out) and we know that there were many war-faring tribes across both North and South America. When you put all of this together, it makes it hard to imagine that there were NOT many instances of land grabs and cultural genocide that took place within the indigenous population itself, long before Europeans showed up to continue the pattern. Indigenous empires rose and fell, just as happened in any other part of the world where people have been around long enough, and the losers lost their land and a lot more.
It seems rather arbitrary to pick the point in time several centuries ago when Europeans happened to show up, and declare that we should respect the property rights that existed at that one instant in time, condemn all the theft that took place from that point forward, but ignore all the thefts that undoubtedly took place before it. I forget who it was that said: "In order to avoid chaos, property rights must be respected, but only RELATIVELY RECENT property rights." You can't turn the clock back to the beginning of time. We have to get to tomorrow from where we are today.
As far as the other suggestion that we have no right to stop anybody from anywhere coming here because we stole wealth from other countries, the main commodity we get from Mexico is oil, and last time I checked the Mexicans were selling it at market price.
What seems to be missing here is understanding that those property rights are being to be challenged again. It won't matter what sort of title you think you have if the issuing authority can't enforce it. The common wealth of most of the west has been mortgaged well beyond what is prudent and the mortgagees are now circling to seize the assets.
Tremoil – I have no doubt that land rights and ownership of other valuable assets will be overturned at various points throughout the world (including here) in various incidents in the (distant or not so distant) future. Anyone who has the slightest awareness of human history will have a very good understanding of that point. But acknowledging that eventuality is not an argument in favor of abdicating the property rights we have today or accepting ideas that degrade our quality of life any more hastily than we absolutely have to. To draw an analogy, we all know that every one of us will die some day, but that doesn’t mean you should lay down across the nearest railroad track tomorrow. My post above was a reply to a specific assertion that we have no moral right to establish or enforce any rules whatsoever regarding the entry of non-citizens into this country, and therefore should not even attempt to do so. You bring up a larger issue that has its own set of implications.
BMU - I was not advocating abandoning immigration controls. I was nuancing the point that it is much harder to establish the moral right to defend borders when you have a rearguard rump, including your own government, that it is prepared to sell it off to the very same foreigners chunk by chunk anyway.
The current generation of sanctimonious "indigenous people" had merely taken the land from the prior group of humans, thousands of years ago. The myth of the 'noble savage' is truly evil. Every species, from bacteria to rats to humans does this. Don't waste the electrons complaining about evolution, unless you really want the smallpox virus to be active again (and no, YOU can't have the vaccine).
Many indigenous people moved unto land previously unoccupied by humans. And there is no need to call any people sanctimonious regardless.
The ecological Indian : myth and history
Author: Shepard Krech
Publisher: New York : W.W. Norton & Co., ©1999.
I feel that the native Americans have been horribly treated...anyone who knows history knows this is true.
But...I didn't do it...did my ancestors (in a large sense) do it? Yes. But I do not have a time machine and probably couldn't change things if I did.
If I was a Native American leader I would push to place solar PV and wind turbines on my land...and nuclear fission plants for that matter, then sell the non-native folks electricity at a nice profit. It seems like payback that they are milking dollars from stupid old immigrant folks (us) at their casinos. Fools and their mool-ah are soon parted. Good on them!
As far as raping the World...I advocate greatly downsizing our military. I agree with you that locals in foreign lands have payed the price for our affluence. How many people remember Bhopal?
What do you want me to do about it? I don't have a time machine, and I am just one dude making my way to support my family (one wife, two children...both of whom use birth control and have no interest in having children, at least for a few years.)
Regardless of our transgressions, I reject your notion that I/we have 'No right' to complain about illegal immigrants.
Without effective control of borders and immigration it is hard to see how a country is defined.
Our population growth in the U.S. needs to be zero. That means that all immigration needs to be strictly controlled.
Keep your guilt trip to yourself.
"My wife had to prove her citizenship to get a part-time gig working at the University bookstore."
I ran a small business for a few years and I had to have my employee (I only had one) fill out the I-9 form. I was very surprised to find out that I didn't have to send it to the government. I was supposed to keep it on record in case I was audited. So I suspect your wife's proof of citizenship is languishing in a file somewhere.
I suspect it will result in poor employment EROEI for employers, and every citizen's taxes to go higher, as all of those come with added costs to the employment process.
...easy to say, after we've spent twenty years in the US embracing both choices. Of course the piper is here to pay now, and it seems the main sentiment is to sacrifice the "illegals".
Having a better control of immigration is certainly a good thing, but in the past the main reason that people came through is because there were jobs to be done and money to be made, and the main reason we largely looked the other way is because there was a great deal of profit to be made all around on cheap immigrant labor. A recession kind of solves that at both ends whether we build a giant fence or not.
Most self-deport. For each illegal Mexican picked up by Project Wetback during the Eisenhower administration, ten went home on their own dime. When life got hot for illegal Pakistanis after 9/11, most got on planes of their own accord. Illegals have been streaming out of Arizona to be away before SB 1070 took effect.
A national E-Verify measure (just using assets in place) combined with an effort to find ID thieves would cut off employment for the bulk of illegals. Cutting off "anchor baby" benefits for their children would shut off that magnet. They'd leave, no arrests necessary.
I had to look the up - there really was an "Operation Wetback"!
Does Mexico cause more problems for the United States or does the United States cause more problems for Mexico? I think the US causes many more problems for Mexico than have ever caused us. The history is not to good between us either. I say we ally with Mexico including troop exchanges. Just like we already do with Canada. Yes, I want to employ Mexico. In uniform. Not to fight foreign powers, so they can 'take over' their own country. The Mexican government needs to clean house for about 5 years. A successful Mexico means a successful US.
BTW I am half Korean/half Spaniard. If an Iberian can promote a better Mexico, anyone can. New border strategy, Mexico first. It just seems more like offense instead of defense.
TinFoil.
The homicide rate in Mexico has been decreasing for years now. Mexico is not some failed third-world state, just the ones who wind-up in the U.S. are the failures with the 8th grade education.
I think what your are saying is you believe Mexico causes us more problems than we cause them. I think most US folks would agree with you. I strongly disagree and think a Mexico first solution would actually work to solve most problems we have with our southern brothers and sisters. I am not getting on to you, just trying to clarify.
Thanks,
TinFoil
I thought that NAFTA and globalization in general was an attempt, in part, to build up Mexico's economy so that eventually we could benefit from selling middle-class Mexican folks our wares.
I though that we were being magnanimous in shipping a lot of our jobs to Mexico and other countries to lift them up...so we could benefit...a lot of comparisons were made to the Marshall Plan...'A Rising tide lifts all boats'...etc.
What more do they want us to do for them?
One thing we could do is to decriminalize many currently illegal drugs. But then some of their fat cats, including politicians, would lose income...
Do not misunderstand me...I have no animus towards people who are not American citizens...I could care less about their skin color, and I respect different cultures (genital mutilation and other such atrocities excepted).
I just do not think that the great globalization gambit where we try to be the engine of growth pulling up all the World's 'underdeveloped' countries works well...except for the top 5% fat cats.
What more do they want? How about some soldiers to straighten out all the crime and lawlessness. What percent of Mexico's crime is because of us? It can be fixed.
Trust me, Mexico does NOT want gringo soldiers on their turf to 'help them'.
Sending them guns, helos, money for soldiers, etc. will only throw gasoline on the fire.
The best things we could do would be to decriminalize many drugs and to stop undermining their local agriculture.
NAFTA didn't help Mexico much. It provided some very poorly-paid jobs along the border, and flooded their market with subsidized American corn, driving their farmers off the land.
You help make my point...NAFTA was a sham all the way around...there are some folks who made out like bandits, but they aren't you and me.
Everyone else got sold a bill of goods.
Reason help me, H. Ross Perot was right!
The minimum wage was increased by the government in three $0.70 increments--to $5.85 in July, 2007, $6.55 in July, 2008, and to $7.25 in July 2009.
>
Over that sampe time period, the unemployment rate went from about 4.7% in July 2007 to about 6% in July of 2008 to about 9.5% in July of 2009.
How come nobody can connect the dots?
I worked for minimum wage for several years while I was in high school and college, and I was damn glad to get the work.
The unemployment rate among teens is sky high. This has to be tough on the parents trying to get a kid through college if the kid can't help out.
If minimum wage is such a good idea, then why not raise it to $250,000 a year? Then we would all be rich, right?
+100
Cause and effect is not so simple. There are plenty of "dots" that you aren't considering - credit default swaps, wars driving federal debt, peak oil, etc. I really don't think that 70 cents on the minimum wage was a real driver of much of anything.
+1000
Trying to blame the Great Recession on Min Wage increases alone, or even for the most part, is beyond ludicrous.
That wasn't the point. Greenspan bubble and subprime leverage killed Lehman, made worse by Bernanke ZIRP, Paulsen TARP, Obama largesse. It was minimum wage writ elephantine and exactly as foolish. Let's see what happens in November.
...politics inherently serves BAU. As long as we're waiting for politicians to fix things we'll just keep throwing out one set of jackasses for another, every election, and never really "get it".
Yeah, it's probably a series of coincidences that the teenage unemployment rate MINUS the overall unemployment rate moves in lock-step with the minimum wage:
Can you give us a longer baseline chart that shows that relationship?
As was pointed out previously, there are a lot of other things that were going on in 2007-2009 (like $147/barrel crude, massive job loss in the construction market due to the housing crash) that also have bearing on unemployment figures.
It's not that simple. In many scenarios higher minimum wage laws do cost jobs but the current recession is not an inventory led recession, like every other recession we've had since 1945. Instead, the current recession is a credit based recession. The last credit based recession we had was the Great Depression, from 1929 to the start of WWII. The credit recession prior to that was the Long Depression.
No amount of lowering wages right now will really stimulate employment. The problem is, quite simply, that the world is awash in debt, debt that cannot be repaid, not the interest on that debt and most likely never even the principal.
There are only three things that can happen with debt.
1. It can be repaid.
2. It can be defaulted.
3. It can be forgiven.
Options 2 and 3 result in capital loss to the lender, either directly as a venture capitalist loaning the money into some activity that he/she thought would make money or as a depositor of a financial institution whose deposits in said institution have been loaned out.
Right now there is more in outstanding debt than the total global GDP by a factor of several times. In other words, there are more claims on the pie than can ever be fulfilled without someone going home empty handed.
Credit recessions are caused by reckless bank activities. This was what the Glass–Steagall Act was designed to prevent. With the passage of the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act, those safeguards were removed and one congressman who voted against it prophetically said that he hoped we would not regret this action in 10 years.
Well here we are just a bit over 10 years later with a massive credit induced recession caused by horrid lending practices by the largest "investment" banks who took these actions with the full knowledge that they would fail yet that these same banks would be "rescued" with taxpayer dollars. And this criminal behavior is not confined to the US. Lehman was leveraged about 35 to 1 when it failed. Deutsche Bank is reported to be leveraged 60 to 1. The Royal Bank of Scotland was leveraged 50 to 1. So this is a global problem.
Anyway, lowering wages right now will not restore employment until the bad debt is cleared from the system. So far we have failed to clear the bad debt and instead are playing extend and pretend games by shifting the debt, renaming it, claiming to back it by national governments (the Federal Reserve for the US and the European Central Bank in Europe), etc. But that changes nothing. These bad debts will mostly never be repaid. The sooner we get on with the painful process of clearing the bad debts, the sooner the base economic system can reset.
And it is very important that we do reset the base system as soon as possible, because if fossil fuel production is at or near its peak of production, this will create a hard ceiling on economic recovery unless or until we divert some of that energy into new energy sources that must replace those same fossil fuels. I will leave the viability of alternative energy sources as replacements for fossil fuels for a separate discussion.
In the UK this last week we've had half-year statements by several major banks all reporting huge profits and a reduction (by 50% or so) of bad debt provision. Are they lying (is this "extend and pretend") or perhaps they sold it on?
The number of person*hours required to be worked to maintain 'the economy/society' is barely related to the number of person*hours available to work.
The only solution is that employers are not penalised for per capita costs [eg tax only on hours worked], then the average hours worked needs to drop drastically. To put it simply, people generally should work less hours and earn less, so that everyone can share the work and pay. Self employment [sole trading etc] needs to be easy, with no bias favouring corporations etc.
Not a chance it will happen though.
To talk about employment and the unemployed seems to me to be begging the question. Or at least getting a bit ahead of ourselves. What we need to think about, is how in a world of scarcity of the goods and services we enjoy now courtesy of abundant energy, will the majority of people have access to enough resources to lead a life reasonably free from hunger, disease and other life-threatening circumstances. "employment" could mean having a share in production such that one can enjoy a share of resources. Pretty much what it means now. Or it could be that production of a much lower level of material culture could be carried out by a small segment of the population, and "employment" is not at all about receiving an income but about having a fulfilling life. I'm thinking here perhaps of the scenarios in Communitas ('Communitas is the title of a book published in 1947 by the 20th-century American thinker and writer Paul Goodman and his brother, Percival Goodman... Their book examines three kinds of possible societies: a society centered around consumption, a society centered around artistic and creative pursuits, and a society which maximizes human liberty. The Goodmans emphasize freedom from both coercion by a government or church and from human necessities by providing these free of cost to all citizens who do a couple of years of conscripted labor as young adults.')
Also these questions seem directed pretty much at the situation in the US. It seems that there is no question in W. Europe that societies do owe the basics of existence to their citizens, and that the plight of being without income has to have a safety net.
Personally I do not believe that even in a future of really scarce resources, energy and otherwise, that anyone will have to live a life of slavish brute manual drudgery, though many do so now.
We will almost certainly have to rely more on local resources and production. If we could start to think of turning to one another, or at least the local region, instead of to the cheapest shiniest goods produced no matter where, I believe we could right now be taking a step in the right direction. If we would acknowledge that we can produce a sufficiency for a comfortable existence in less than 40 hours work a week, we'd be taking another one. And if we would pay people to re-use and adapt existing artifacts rather than disposing and buying new, we'd be well on our way.
Gail appears to be asking what should we do? There has been debate on this topic, ranging from the May 9th, 2009 Campfire article "Transitioning to A Society of Sloth?" to a host of other opinions, including Business As Usual. The problem becomes political in that it becomes a political decision, based on emotion, belief systems, and hope, rather than a deliberate exercise in risk assessment and choices derived from that assessment.
This, in turn, means we have to ask the question of what are we most likely to do? The "should" is easy to discuss but then devolves into argument and unless there is sufficiently widespread consensus to act (and there is not), then nothing happens within society. But what happens to society itself if society refuses to address a known problem? This is where the question of what is most likely to occur becomes pertinent.
As for Gail's questions...
1. Is it possible to start a transition to a world that uses less scarce raw materials and more labor? If so, how can we do this in a way that provides more work opportunities for the unemployed?
In my opinion, yes this is possible but this is the wrong question. Possibility is not the issue, likely courses of action becomes the important issue.
2. How do we connect up potential workers with the raw materials that they need? It doesn't help if there are 1 million would-be farmers, but they all live in apartments in the city, and have no access to land. Land is expensive, and the unemployed are mostly poor.
Such a solution would require (a) that the poor recognize their situation and abandon any hope of "the good life" with which they have been eternally tempted, plus (b) a rather significant overthrow of the existing economic and governing systems to take land from people who have more than they need and give to those who have none. The problem with this is that it strikes at the very heart of individuality and many people will not willingly participate in this, for a wide variety of reasons. I am not suggesting this be done, just that such an action is what would be required to address the problem posed in question #2. Further, I would point at history when this has been tried in the past. The results are very mixed, with, so far as I can find, a preponderance of bad outcomes from this sort of action and far fewer good outcomes.
3. Should we be doing more to share with the unemployed -- making certain that unemployment insurance and health care is available to them even if it means higher taxes, helping them with education and job placement, and perhaps taking them into our homes?
This question appears to presume that government is automatically an answer. Government is no more capable of creating wealth than it is of creating oil. Government is a fundamental drain on the productive actions of society. This is not to say we should not have government but that we must recognize that it has costs and may not be the best way to address a given problem. But consider the alternative - no changeover to an alternative energy source and a possibly ever growing pool of unemployed. Exactly how far do you tax those still working to maintain those not working? There is no easy answer here, none at all, especially if there is no future energy source that can replace fossil fuels. If there is one, then the problem becomes trivial because employment will reestablish itself and remove the unemployment problem but if there is not, then what?
4. Are there things governments can do to ease the transition?
One objection that I have to governments, especially governments larger than the city or county level, is that they typically try to mandate one size fits all type solutions. In my opinion, federal (national) and state (provincial) governments should get as far out of the way as possible. Why? Because this would create a hotbed of experimentation, with cities and counties each trying different things, sometimes radically different from each other and sometimes very similar. But this hotbed of experimentation would, in my opinion, be far more likely to generate possibly workable solutions (multiple solutions!!) than any amount of discussion followed by national level government programs ever could. In fact, the sole responsibility of the national governments should be to funnel resources to each lower level government entity and then encourage it to experiment with solutions.
This would actually emulate nature at work via natural selection, but it need not kill the people involved. If a program fails to work, look at programs in other cities and counties and adapt parts that are working elsewhere and continue to experiment in areas where no one has found functional solutions.
5. Are there things the unemployed can do to help themselves and other unemployed people?
Unfortunately, in today's society, the unemployed appear to have few choices. The largest problem is the inability of anyone to opt out of the global economic system. Opting out is nearly impossible except for the most extreme sorts of actions. Because of this the unemployed are in even worse shape than it appears. They cannot get work, the support structure around them is very weak, and they cannot opt out to try anything radically different precisely because the existing political structure fears both change and loss of power.
In conclusion, my thoughts roam back to what is most likely to happen rather than what should happen. And the likelihood is that the wealthy and those in power in the existing political structure are more likely to fight, tooth and nail, to maintain the status quo or even increase it in their favor than to take actions that actually solve problems. History is replete with humans doing precisely this whereas the number of times we have chosen the other road is few indeed. Thus looking at history my expectation is of collapse, violence, and possibly even war versus the desire for social justice and equitable solutions that actually face the future positively. While I do wish for the latter, history teaches me to expect the former.
"Jay Hason's list from the Society of Sloth piece is what needs to happen"
So Bob Dobbs and the Church of the Subgenius to the rescue?
Who are you quoting, mos6507? Placing a statement like that, in quote marks, beneath someone else's post makes it appear as though you are quoting someone. So who is it?
Ah, I look further down the comments and it appears you meant to reply Syd O's post. You may wish to reply down there if you expect any constructive discussion to your comment.
You called?
Who says we have to do anything about the unemployed?
In all seriousness, in the UK being unemployed is a legitimate career choice. Being on welfare is often the best decision a person can make: free time, modest state handout each week, no council tax, free dental, housing benefits. It works even better if you can fake a limp and get disability living allowance. The song "Bad Boy Limp" by Goldie Looking Chain will give tips for those of you who can't limp to order.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubI87ZIF26I
Britain may be bankrupt, but there are so many voters claiming welfare after 13 disasterous years of socialist Labour that they make up the biggest voting block in the country. Politicians dare not scale back benefits.
What we need is the courage to create a new paradigm.
We need to acknowledge that since the domestication of animals and the beginning of agriculture we have been on a path leading to an alienation of our species to the greater concert of all life on this only planet in our solar system that has life as we know it.
We first need to reduce our population that could be done in just a generation if we could change the current paradigm of current religious dogma.
As for employment, do we really want more jobs to make more widgets?
In the U.S. with such a high living standard as compared to most of human population on Earth we seem to be not such a happy and contented population.
We are one of the few species whose calorie intake does not require most of our time consuming food. Has anyone thought that possibly the human species with its over sized brain was meant to just think without necessarily taking an action?
Many think we are in the Sixth Great Extinction, but this extinction may be caused by just one species and that would be ourselves.
A new paradigm is exactly what we need but I'm not sure if that will ever happen and I mourn that inevitability. As the employment situation grows more dire people will give less a shit about appreciation of the natural world and just about living. That means year round hunting/fishing season and will only crash the naturals systems faster. I would expect increased burglaries as people break in for food and/or things they can resell for food.
Jay Hason's list from the Society of Sloth piece is what needs to happen but if there was actual strong top-down leadership, as say in Cuba, people in the US would freakout and I figure you'd see more domestic terrorism. Beside that I fear global/regional wars as some others have said. There's too many people with too many guns not to get hot and bothered when things aren't as easy to come by as they used to be. Sometimes I think about moving to a third world place that won't be in the fray but I figured a foreigner could be marked as a target.
Yeah, this was about employment but I think employment is just a factor of agricultural civilizations. If we lived in harmony with the Earth then every one would be born with the same profession and have access to all the resources they needed. Of course this would mean a drastic reduction in population but I expect that to happen anyway as immediate and skillful healthcare goes into decline.
I will regret that any pleasantries of no longer having to punch a clock will be replaced be hardcore fear of famine and or road agents during the collapse period.
+100
Pretty much my sentiments.
I think human history from the start of agriculture is the same story of our being bright enough to come up with fantastic ideas and things, but never able to see the cost until it is too late.
Welsh,the necessity is to enforce the corollary of "no taxation without representation" by insisting that voters can only be registered upon showing a valid tax return. The vote would then be limited to the working, middle and upper classes and the welfare class disenfranchised. The retired could still vote after showing evidence of say 20 years minimum lifetime employment.
great way to start a civil uprising that will be best put down under the boot of a tyrant who is not afraid to take "hard measures". Perhaps a Final Solution would be in order! Hmmmm
The question of what to do with the unemployed is in my opinion a moot question. Considering the economic situation in the U.S. and the rest of the world it becomes obvious that in the developed world we have a surplus of people. Currently there are probably about three people available for each productive position available. The U.S. and other countries may try to provide funding for basic services for the excess population for a short period of time, but eventually, and probably sooner rather than later reality will be faced that what cannot continue will not. Eventually population will equal productive capability and unemployment will no longer exist as currently known. It looks like in the U.S. 99 weeks of unemployment compensation is the maximum and other safety nets will have to be provided by individuals. December may be the start of a bad time to be out of work.
What the unemployed should do with themselves is perhaps a better or more pressing question...In the short term of course what "we" will do is offer hand-outs and attempt to create jobs through economic growth; neither of which are sustainable in the long run. Which leaves a large number of unemployed with an essentially 20th century perspective on their own situation - that someone else is responsible for their situation and it is really someone else problem to solve.
Its an unpleasant thing even to discuss, and though I have the luxury of being employed currently I do have friends who are not. Talking about energy or economic matters tends to devolve pretty quickly into pointless argument - that the world is changing in a way that may not bring their jobs back and that the future may not be the bright place we were promised as children is not a happy topic.
If I were unemployed I would fall back on family ties, sell all unnecessaries, and focus on building the largest variety of skills and relations I could.
Daxr states "If I were unemployed I would fall back on family ties,".
Neglecting his other actions I have to say that AFAICS the 'family' unit no longer exists in any meaningful form. Not the same as say it was in the 50s and 60s.
Most families have become mixmaster types. I know many children not living with their natural parents any longer.
Face it. The whole society we used to know has undergone a tremendous alteration to something different and therefore what once were considered 'family ties' are rather just very very loosely tied and gnarled messes of twine.
No real cohesion and little feeling of actual responsibility.
In my case my daughter stole, lied and resorted to all types of schemes. Has been married,divorced, living with guys she met on the internet, and doing a very poor job of raising my granddaughter,,to the point of her uncle attempting to sexually assault her own daughter as she lived in a house he owned.
My wife's father is on his fourth wife and cut my wife completely out of his estate, where she once had JT-WROS over most of it, all so that he could promise it all to a stupid bimbo to marry himn while leaving his last wife(3rd) to die in a nursing home. His son, the uncle whotried the depraved acts with my young grandaughter of 12, is on his third wife after leaving children all over the landscape from his previous two marriages. He once kicked his first wife in the stomach causing her to miscarry.
So far as I can see this is pretty normal for most quote'families'unquote.
And the dirty secrets exist hidden from public view.
So where is the strength of what some call laughingly "The Family Unit"?
It simply does NOT exist anymore except to a very slight degree and for those who reply to this Post saying "ohhhh mine is not like that, mine is a GOOD family"....
Yeah,,,sure. If so then distinctly in the minority.
The sinews of this country once revolved around family bonds. Not so anymore.
We will test this area very very strongly and I am sure it will be found wanting in the extreme, as we drift closer and closer to that point when all hell breaks loose and it will mano a mano.
The only real cohesion will be found in very small enclave out in the rural areas. Areas small enough that most everyone knows everyone else. Knows who to trust and who to not trust. Even then some kin are druggies and worthless BUT at least they are a known quality and can be dealt with.
Who are you going to trust as a few people walk up your lane to your farm house? Complete total strangers who wish to either kill and take or beg and con you?
Or people you have went to school with, who you have known intimately, fished and hunted with and shared experiences with?
I'm sure the choice is obvious. Yet how else to deal with a situation that will for sure happen. If you live on some land and have some resources. Like stored food and firewood, water and other essentials?
Are you going to trust just anyone?
This then is how and where I live. This then will be my choices. This then is surely how much of this will play out as the cities shut down and the suburbs empty out.
Many vagabonds on the roads and byways. Many either to take and kill or starve and die.
How to assign values? How to assign trust? The family? Gone long ago in most cases and widely separated over large distances. Even widely separated by value systems.
Values thrown out the window and on the ash heaps. Values that we needed but no longer have.
When are we ever going to actually live with the culture and society we have evolved to? The total wastelands of greed and ego driven lives? The government that is nonfunctional, corporations who mostly control peoples lives from the time the TV is turned on in the morning until you reach the grave.
When I lived in subdivisions it was rare to even know the name of the people two houses down. And most just remained anonymous and preferred it that way. I had a neighbor whose son would place a 10 ft diameter cattle tank , used as a swimming pool , on the chain link fence between us, and bang it with a baseball bat. Like a huge metal drum and laugh as he ran when I came out the door. Later threw mudballs at the front door when we were gone on vacation. Also neighbor hood toughs, teenagers, who robbed the guy next door to me as I watched them cavorting around his house. They threatened to beat his young daughter up if he brought charges against them. I lived in several subdivisions in my life and most were like this. Ugly, depraved and worthless places to reside.
In one my next door neighbor parked his clunker in front of my house instead of his and let it leak oil all over the concrete. He would empty his lawn mower bags over the fence on my yard. His wife would scream at his children at the top of her lungs.
One guy kept a pony in his two car garage. Had 20 cats that defected all over my gravel driveway by digging little pits and covering them up. I could go on and on about such events. Even now I have to shoot cats from the next farm whose children raise them by the dozens. Last month I observed about 30 cats eating out of the dogs food bowl in his yard. As they come to my place they tend to hide in the barn and drive my dogs nuts. Finally my dogs catch one and I have to go put it out of its misery. And we are separated by a couple thousand feet at that. Why I do not know. Why do kids run around knocking down mailboxes just after Sunday Services and you saw them singing in the choir?
Family? I just don't see that as working out.
Geez, PB...................Geez.
(goes off to think)
Sorry to here your experiences have been so disappointing...but my "falling back on family ties" is a somewhat planned likelihood in the event of unemployment - I do have a good and close extended family, standing offers, and would reciprocate without hesitation.
Your experiences are a symptom of excess energy.
When a new biological niche opens up the imperative is to breed fast and breed early.
On the other hand when times get tough, and it takes the combined effort of a village to bring a youngster up to adulthood, then pair-bonds are strong.
We learned these tactics in the pumping up of our brains due to Glacial (tough) times and Interglacial (expansionary)oscillations.
The hypothesis will be tested when times toughen up as it predicts permanent marriages.
I could not find the book, sorry. I am hoping my friend took it, for then it will pass along.
Yeah, you win.
Any time there is a surplus of adequately skilled labor, that labor group will be exploited. It is in our hardwired nature to look out for number one and get the most for our self that we can. The result is exploitation of those with less power.
In 1959, the first order of business every morning at the company where I was employed was to find one or two blue collar workers that could be fired. They were escorted out of the factory the long way carrying their tool box so that other workers would be appropriately intimidated.
By 1975, I was managing about 800 IMS programmers modernizing every business system for the same corporation. Senior management tried to manage these highly skilled scarce resources as they had managed surplus skills in previous years. The result is that about one third of the IMS programmers quit and the rest went on strike with out announcing same. Six months later and millions over budget, senior management realized that they were in a new era and had to change their ways.
Since at least 2000 we have had a large surplus of labor in the US. This is because of off shoring, automation and legal and illegal immigration. There is no reason to believe that any of these pressures on employment will moderate in the future. This is really independent of Peak Oil or other resource limitations. Reduction in petroleum will only magnify the problem because the over all economy will continue to contract as it is now. Even the wise people are acknowledging that we are now headed for another downturn in the economy. We are in fact in an economic depression brought on by excessive credit and fraud in the financial community. Credit, fraud and government welfare (social security, Medicare, Medicaid, prescription drugs, food stamps, subsidized housing, etc.) have hidden the effects of this increasingly surplus labor. We have reached the point where the systemic problem can no longer be hidden.
Since about 1965, we have put into place government programs that have created a large permanent underclass that is unskilled, unhealthy, and psychologically incapable of supporting them selves. During the good times we can afford to be generous and benevolent but when the ultimate insurance company (government) runs out of money, huge numbers will be thrown under the bus. Additionally, few people have the skills that are required in the future and again many are psychologically unable to develop the required skills. There will not be much need for people with degrees in social studies, political science, law, women's studies, etc. There will be need for welders, machinist, appliance repairmen, etc.
In short the system is deathly sick due to excessive consumption and in addition is now faced with starvation due to resource depletion.
The individual should be developing strong community relationships, developing essential skills, and preparing to cope with chaos.
I couldn't agree more. Wendell Berry wrote once that we have become a nation whose whole purpose is bent towards unemployment - as in "how fast can I retire" "this is great - I used to work hard, now I just push the buttons on the machine" "can I get on disability for this?" "if I just win the lottery I'll never have to work again" "I need three weeks of vacation and sick leave a year or I'm quitting" etc.
Developing community relationships, essential skills, preparing to cope...it sounds simple but its a long long road from here to there. Sad to think about, but close to a majority of people I know, employed and unemployed, have difficulty with the concept that everything they need is not owed to them, aren't social at all without the appropriate life-sucking addictions, and have a hard time if they have to walk two blocks.
In a way its like a trial run of what is to come.
What we currently have is a form of overshoot, ie. economic overshoot. Where an out of control financial system has taken us well beyond any form of sustainable economy. The resulting collapse will mean that many, if not all, the frivolous jobs that were created as a result of overshoot will vanish as they are fundamentally unsustainable. The second problem is that we cannot return to the same level of economic activity that we had prior to overshoot, because of the draw down of resources (economic in this case). The resulting economic activity we can return to will therefore be at a much lower base than we had prior to overshoot.
I wouldn't even hazard a guess at what level unemployment will reach, but I would say it will be more extreme than anything we've ever seen before. Society will change as a result into something very different to what we have today.
Then we have to face the real overshoot of the planet's natural resources aka. "the bottle neck". Where we will have even less control of the outcome.
I agree. To me the real danger is that the mass unemployed will get so desperate that they will take down the entire political system, only to discover that the result is even worse than before, if more equitable.
I'd imagine that the unemployed will become the voting majority and they will of course want the State to bail them out. The Country's elite will baulk at that, as their democracy scam (population control technique) will have back fired, with the voters voting to empty the government coffers for their own benefit robbing the elite of their over-large share of the pie.
The elite will junk democracy and bring in a new method controlling the population for their benefit. Who knows what that will be, historically the methods have become ever more sophisticated, so I doubt it will be something based on overt force/control. First they have to chose something that the masses will believe in, then they must wrangle control of that belief system and manipulate it to their own ends. The European Union comes to mind, run by a shadowy elite unaccountable to anyone but themselves and above control by the Nation State or their laws.
I did some work for the EU once. I resigned because the level of corruption was unbelievable. I hope that when the nation states run out of money that they will cut the EU down to size.
Burgundy
"First they have to chose something that the masses will believe in, then they must wrangle control of that belief system and manipulate it to their own ends."
Something like terrorism, homeland security and fema?
According to the graph in "Hollow Men of Economics", the proportion of GDP attributed to the energy sector has risen from about 6% to 10% over the period 1998 to 2008.
The energy sector has a much higher revenue per employee than other sectors of the economy. For example, ExxonMobil's revenue per employee is $4,044,721, while McDonalds is only $60,461. With GDP shifting from low revenue per employee sectors to high, the GDP has to grow rapidly or employment falls.
One approach would be to tax industries with high revenue per employee at higher rates than the others, slowing their expansion, and rebalancing the economy.
Or we could all just walk to the nearest fast food place.
To start with - I challenge the idea that we are facing a future of less energy. We have had an energy crisis before that resulted in us from transitioning for one source of energy to another.
This energy crisis occurred at the dawn of the industrial revolution when it was discovered that 'renewable' energy sources (wind, water, animal, and particularly timber) were insufficient to meet their energy needs. The most critical issue was the depletion of forests in order to provide fuel for cooking, heating and industry.
The solution was to transfer from the use of renewable fuels to the newfangled 'fossil fuels.'
I see that transition occurring today. First we seen the use of hybrid cars and we are just about to see the introduction of all electric cars. This is an example of a gradual transition from a fossil fuel economy to an electric economy.
In addition - I predict that the voters are not going to tolerate sitting in a cold and dark home at night. The moment this becomes a real possibility in the minds of the voters - you will see the anti-nuclear activists bound and gagged in a corner while the voters tell their elected representatives to build those nuclear power plants or else they will elect somebody who will.
Personally, I have very little faith in 'green energy' - green energy was what we had prior to the industrial revolution and we could not kick it to the curb fast enough the moment we found alternatives.
To start with - I challenge the idea that we are facing a future of less energy. We have had an energy crisis before that resulted in us from transitioning for one source of energy to another.
I'll see your energy transition and raise you a catabolic collapse.
Unfortunately you are confusing technology with energy. Hybrid and electric cars are not new sources of energy. They are new configurations of old technology that produces higer efficiency in the case of hybrids and accesses a wider range of energy sources for transport in the case of electric cars. We have already had the electric revolution in the 20th century and it concided quite happily with the oil age. To a very large extent, the hyperconplexity of both oil and electric systems are dependent on eachother. Contraction of either one will pull down the other. My personal belief is that we can keep the lights (and the phones and the internet) going but we are going to have to radically overhaul transportation of goods and people, starting with a close examiniation of need.
Actually, the transition to new sources of energy started when Roseveldt signed the executive order for the Manhatan Project.
A shotrage of wood led to the use of fossil fuels which turned out to be much more compact and effective energy sources, a shortage of fossil fuels will(IMO)lead to an even more compact and efficient source of energy - nuclear power presently and eventually fusion power.
The only question is: will the US be the country sitting in the dark while the countries that invested in nuclear power prosper?
...again, demand creates supply.
In which case no civilization has ever collapsed due to resource constraints.
Actually - problems create solutions. The advancement of human civilization has been nothing but a cycle of: something gets invented; as a result of that invention - a problem appears; a solution is invented to solve that problem - which eventually creates its own problem; wash, rinse, repeat.
A shortage of wood in England led to the innovation of using coal. However, coal mines began flooding and needed to be pumped out. This (among other thing) resulted in the discovery of the vacuum when people puzzled as to why a pump could on suck water up to a limited height - it also drove the development of the steam engine to power those pumps. They knew that coal was an energy source for hundreds of years before this - however as long as wood was cheap there was no incentetive to develop this superior fuel source.
Now compare that with nuclear energy. As long as fossil fuels were cheap there was little incentive to develop nuclear power. However, as fossil fuels increase in price we see research into fusion power as well as new designs for nuclear power plants. We also see the hybrid car - which is a transitional technology as we prepare to switch from gasoline to electricity for our transportation needs.
An excellent book that gives a perspective on how the progress of civilization is a series of invention; problem; invention; repeat - is James Burke's landmark book 'Connections.' (Published in the 1970's so it is somewhat hard to get.)
That is a good book, which libraries usually have. Another one is "Sun in a Bottle: The Strange History of Fusion and the Science of Wishful Thinking" by Seife, which is about the long failure of nuclear fusion to become a solution to our problems. Related to that, you might look at the 2 billion people on the planet who lack clean water - a number that is added to every day, and another problem with no solution. Even ten years ago the UN solution was that we would be desalinating ocean water by now, in plants powered by nuclear fusion. Needless to say...
FYI - I regard 'green energy' the same way you regard fusion power. Something we need to research - but not something we should be betting our futures on.
From a risk management perspective - nuclear power is the least risky option based on the 'worst case scenarios for all alternatives. Nuclear power has a very low technical risk because we already know it works. With the exception of coal - all the alternative sources of electricity have unacceptably high levels of technical risk.
Most places where safe drinking water is an issue are also places that do not possess the social infrastructure to support efficient government and economic systems.
...or to put things in another way, as a civilization we are suffering from quite a bit of "deferred maintenance"; problems have been piling up faster than solutions have been found, and some solutions are so late that I doubt they are coming.
The miracle of innovation looks best in the rearview mirror, where you can cherry-pick successes and ignore the problems nobody got to. If you read things like the "State of the Union" addresses of various presidents over the years you get a pretty good idea of how badly things have gone, versus the best hopes of innovation.
FYI - I regard 'green energy' the same way you regard fusion power. Something we need to research - but not something we should be betting our futures on.
Huh. And here I've been telling people to super-insulate and use passive solar as the cheapest way to use "green energy".
Glad you showed up to tell us all to just trust large Corporations to provide for us. Better we not be in charge of our own fate....trust the Large Corporation!
The Beeb did a TV series by James Burke called Connections. Loved that show as a kid.
WE GOT ONE!
its a new wave of the old arguments... the debate's premise is for a energy scenario that in all likelihood produces economic consequences such as unemployment
but if you wish to question the whole edifice for thinking on this site...and why not?... lurk a bit more first perhaps...OTOH roll your sleeves up
things must be moving on to have these debates resurface after all these years
no shortage has every driven any energy transition of note... perhaps wood but even there its somewhat disturbing to think we probably burn more wood than ever.
humanity has not transitioned from one energy source to another due to shortages.. it has piled on a raft of new things to burn because expanding the consumption of current fuel sources at a every increasing rates does not seem to meet pressures for economic growth.
we burn more of everything and actually reaching a point where we cant burn oil at a faster rate because we cant pull it out the ground fast enough is a unprecedented situation.. this peak oil plateau thing
the transition/substitution myth is really a big bonfire with the BAU crowd looking around for the next pile of rubbish to chuck on.
now nukes are IMO a way to go but in no way do they form some panacea on a pre-ordained documented path of ongoing energy transition precedents stretching back in history
Who is "we" y'all.
I am BP spill unemployed. I had a person in the education system advise me to take the GRE test and plan to go back to school next year. Only workable plan I could agree with. Anyone taken the GRE lately? I need a high score. I will be more ethical after I get in, LOL.
Worst case scenario. I would be a leech on the state, but I would be an educated leech on the state. Isn't that better. I could teach young leeches to be old leeches like me. I want a better way too.
Tin Foil' Thanks for the many days you have amused me. In return, I can offer you a number of very practical ways to make a living. You'll be working within a day. I didn't want to clog the site with any real world solutions. You'll enjoy this
Click on WaveRider for my email address.
Dave in Phuket
Edited - post in wrong place
I took it seven years ago, when I was going back after another masters degree. After you register, ETS sends you practice software so you can be familiar with the format. Some general remarks, which may be out-of-date (Wikipedia says some changes were made, starting in 2007):
...people certainly vary in their skills!
When I went back to college a few years ago I had to take the SAT's. I bought two big study guides with practice exams and found that I did fine with English, but that the math - algebra in particular - had become like a foreign language. I spent two months buried in math study and ignored the rest, ending up with an 800 on the English section and a respectable 650 in math.
You could sell your oilspill pictures/videos to lawyers sueing BP (or make little tinfoilhats to sell as souvenirs ;-)
1. We have that, Obama's plan makes it so everyone must buy health insurance which is a good idea.
2. This is silly, people would just wind up looking for a second job as they'd have too much free time.
3. Most population growth is due to immigration.
There is a flaw here - if you have item 2 - you will no longer have enough of a tax base to pay for item 1.
Yeah, and that's what they say about sociable security too. It's a b*tch when the expansion that was supposed to go on forever collides with the edges of the petri dish.
It's inevitable now, the future is going to be harder than the past. Only question is, how will the remaining resources be divided up? (and history would suggest that an unequal distribution is likely)
The issue with Social Security is that it is no longer based on the principle that you only get back what you paid in. We have been increasing SS benefits facter than reciepts. For example: SS now provides education benefits to the children of retirees. In addition it is possible to qualify for Social Security without ever having to have paid one dime of SS tax.
The biggest issue is that the SS system is in effect a ponzi scheme. The money you pay in to SS is not saved for your retirement. Instead it is paid out to current retired people. As long as we had an expanding population - this worked fine. However with lifespans extending and the 'boomer' generation retiring - there will be fewer current workers to pay the taxes for the retirees.
BTW - if you think the US has a coming pension crisis, consider China and the effects it's 'one child policy' is going to have in about 20 years.
You're off in right field there.
Just about everything you're saying is wrong.
Minor children receive payments on account of dead parents - they don't collect on their own accounts.
You can't qualify for benefits without having worked for at least some time, or being the surviving spouse of someone who paid in (and you only get half-payments then).
From MoveOn:
Myth #1: Social Security is going broke.
Reality: There is no Social Security crisis. By 2023, Social Security will have a $4.6 trillion surplus (yes, trillion with a ‘T’). It can pay out all scheduled benefits for the next quarter-century with no changes whatsoever. After 2037, it’ll still be able to pay out 75% of scheduled benefits—and again, that’s without any changes. The program started preparing for the Baby Boomers’ retirement decades ago. Anyone who insists Social Security is broke probably wants to break it themselves.
Myth #2: We have to raise the retirement age because people are living longer.
Reality: This is a red-herring to trick you into agreeing to benefit cuts. Retirees are living about the same amount of time as they were in the 1930s. The reason average life expectancy is higher is mostly because many fewer people die as children than they did 70 years ago. What’s more, what gains there have been are distributed very unevenly—since 1972, life expectancy increased by 6.5 years for workers in the top half of the income brackets, but by less than 2 years for those in the bottom half. But those intent on cutting Social Security love this argument because raising the retirement age is the same as an across-the-board benefit cut.
Myth #3: Benefit cuts are the only way to fix Social Security.
Reality: Social Security doesn’t need to be fixed. But if we want to strengthen it, here’s a better way: Make the rich pay their fair share. If the very rich paid taxes on all of their income, Social Security would be sustainable for decades to come. Right now, high earners only pay Social Security taxes on the first $106,000 of their income. But conservatives insist benefit cuts are the only way because they want to protect the super-rich from paying their fair share.
Myth #4: The Social Security Trust Fund has been raided and is full of IOUs
Reality: Not even close to true. The Social Security Trust Fund isn’t full of IOUs, it’s full of U.S. Treasury Bonds. And those bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. The reason Social Security holds only treasury bonds is the same reason many Americans do: The federal government has never missed a single interest payment on its debts. President Bush wanted to put Social Security funds in the stock market—which would have been disastrous—but luckily, he failed. So the trillions of dollars in the Social Security Trust Fund, which are separate from the regular budget, are as safe as can be.
Myth #5: Social Security adds to the deficit
Reality: It’s not just wrong—it’s impossible! By law, Social Security’s funds are separate from the budget, and it must pay its own way. That means that Social Security can’t add one penny to the deficit.
The Trust fund is full of IOUs in the form of inter-government loans. The Trust fund went cash flow negative in 2010, that is the definition of "going broke." Just because Moveon.org thinks the U.S. debt will be credible in the future doesn't make it so. I have currency that is supposedly able to be redeemed in gold yet I am unable to do so.
If Social Security can't be added to the deficit, that just makes it a giant unfunded liability, and the U.S. will have to default on it's obligation in some way.
The moveon.org page must have been written during 2008 at the height of the bubble.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1890542,00.html
"Cash-flow negative" does not mean "broke" until there are no savings. IOUs backed by the "full faith and credit" of the US government are still considered to be savings, last I checked.
So IOUs (debt) backed by the full faith and credit (debt)... someone tell me what's missing from this picture? Oh yeah, tax rates to pay off all those bonds.
Bingo!
And let me add, the situation is no different for cash or other government bonds. Their value lies entirely in the presumed willingness and ability of the government to pay them off, but that doesn't mean that the holder of cash or bonds is broke as soon as they stop accumulating them and start spending them.
Oh, so EZ to fix; eliminate the tax limit. If you earn 10M, you pay SS on 10 M. So does your employer (the Miami Heat).
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/07/how-would-you-fix-social-security
The problem with raising the tax limit is that you will also have to make the people you collected more taxes from get more than what is now the current 'maximum benefit.'
Otherwise all you are doing is taking money from one person's wallet and giveing it to somebody else.
Nope.
Social Security should be a flat benefit. It is supposed to be a safety net, not a person's whole retirement plan.
Keep the maximum payment where it is.
"Otherwise all you are doing is taking money from one person's wallet and giveing it to somebody else."
I don't mind. I'm not a teabagger.
Gee, what should I consider as better information? What Move-On says or what I learned while getting an accounting degree?
Clue for the clueless: If money out is greater than money in - you have a problem.
Yes, but at some point if others were counting on your money out as their money in and it is no longer there, they start to have the same problem. And if say, you no longer have a job and you don't have any way to continue with that money out and more and more people find themselves in the same predicament the whole systems starts to have the that same problem as well. Which is more or less where we are now starting to find ourselves. The ponzi scheme, which is our economy is unraveling.
Clue for the clueless: The system is FUBAR! If money out is greater than money in - somebody else is likely to have a problem as well.
Only if the money saved is going to run out before the money in gets bigger again, and if you have no way to increase the money in and/or reduce the money out.
If the US economy can be saved SS is not a problem. If it can't be saved, trashing SS is not going to help.
Quote:The issue with Social Security is that it is no longer based on the principle that you only get back what you paid in.
Correction: Social Security was never based on return of the principle that was paid in. The payments have marginal relation to taxes paid.
It was a Ponzi scheme from the get-go, with the added attraction that most people contributing would not live long enough {to 65} to collect any of their contributions. This was reinforced by a growing workforce relative to recipients which is being turned on its head as we watch.
It also was NOT a retirement package, as it was meant to be a 'safety net' for those who had been unwilling or unable to save for 'retirement'.
One could say that everything that could have gone wrong did, and Murphy was an optimist.
The last problem of today's situation is that the DC spenders have spent every penny you have paid in FICA and given the Social Security Administration pieces of paper promising to pay back the monies at some time in the future. The future is now, and the bill will get worse as time goes on.
tom
Those pieces of paper are Treasury Bills. Still a very popular investment, and not generally considered a Ponzi scheme. There are enough of them to fund SS for a long while, and even longer with a bit of fiddling as to the retirement age and pension amounts and tax levels. If those Treasury bills turn out to be worthless (which they may) then SS will be the least of our problems, as the US economy and government will have already collapsed.
SS was always meant to be a retirement program. At the time it was founded very few people had any other pension or adequate savings, and old age meant abject poverty for far too many people. Most of the increased life expectancy since then is due to lower infant mortality, such that most workers in 1940 could expect to draw over a decade of SS benefits:
http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
Myself, I think most politicians making arguments like yours want to steal the trust fund, on behalf of their Wall Street masters, and first need to convince us it isn't worth anything anyway.
Yup.
My own strategy is to decrease my exposure to Wall St.
Unfortunately, here in Australia the Government has mandated the gleaning of my paycheck.
This money is given a fancy name and invested.
I guess the Government is confident in BAU.
Or else they refuse to consider any other scenario.
Or else they think I am going to die anyway, so I won't be needing the money.
Or all of the above.
There is nothing which can be done. The world can no longer support so many people. The population must and will decline until the energy from the sun, is sufficient for the population. The end game is going to be horrific.
Well Ari, I guess it is good that you are old. I will fight the barbarians as long as I can. They may be only in my own mind, but I will stay connected to the community. Lighten up please, you are dooming me bad.
TinFoil.
The Mrs. and I run a small business.
We do website design and hosting.
That part has been static for the last year, no new customers.
We have a contract with a local ISP for tech support.
(Hi Bob, seems you've messed up your email again, let's take a look at it)
That has been bringing home the bacon for the last few years.
The way I see it right now if you don't have a job you probably won't get one as there are none to be found.
If you have one, hang on to it as tight as you can.
My garage needs to be reroofed but I can't afford to hire anyone to do it because even though we have jobs we can barely make ends meet.
What to do about the unemployed that fall off the edge?
That happened to me in 1990 and I bid on a USDA timber contract and became a 'Tree Feller'. That saved our bacon.
Now I'm a MacGyver type of guy being a Boy Scout and spending a soggy decade in the NAVY I tend to think out of the box.
Give me a paperclip, a screwdriver, vice grips and an MP-5 and I can fix anything or destroy it.
I had a Sthil 380 so I went for it.
These people that have lost their jobs and are at the end of their ropes need to sit down and think because I'm not for having my taxes go to pay for them to watch HBO all day long.
I'd like to mention that when I had the timber business there was someone stealing my split wood.
I spent a day and a half hid in the brush until they showed up.
I put a 7.62 in their [sexual action verb] radiator from 100 yards away and then slunk out the same way I came in.
That timber cut paid the mortgage as I cutting lodgepole pine and was selling it at 1$ per foot to a company that was using it to build log cabins.
4300 trees were killed by me.
I digress.
The last time the 'energy from the sun' was sufficient - most of the world's population survived on subsistance agriculture.
Why don't we simply take the low risk approach and start building nuclear power plants instead?
Activated, did you get my apology? I had also recently watched Heartbreak Ridge. Last sorry, I will refrain from the killer references.
TinFoil
I missed it. But apology accepted.
I guess I over-reacted. Some of my expierencs in Iraq made me somewhat over-sensitive to the people who regard soldiers as trained killers who do not care about people.
Dad was just like Tom Highway, he did WWII, Korea and Nam. In WWII he mopped up in Europe. In Korea he fought with Mac w/ Third Corp. Was at frozen Chosun. He told me it was tough. Somewhere along the line he got a Bronze Star and a Purple Heart. A bunch of his NCOM buddies had that and much more. We went to the range one time at 11PM and shot off 105's because the General wanted to show off for a new press lady. The locals were pissed. He really was a hearts and minds guy, but you never knew when he was going to go off. Like I said, old school. Would not cut it today in the civilian world, but he would adapt.
Thanks for YOUR service,
TinFoil
I heard on the news that the Dutch soldiers in Afghanistan ride bicycles on patrol. And they talk to the locals.
This makes them harder to shoot.
(Think about it before answering)
They are real soldiers.
Brotherhood is better than armour.
I wonder who we shoot in Afghanistan? Taliban? Insurgents? I have no idea who the 'enemy' is right now.
Right now the eneny in Afghansitan is a spectrum of Pashtuns, Taliban, and drug gangs. The Pashtun tribes, Taliban and drug gangs are all intermixed to the extent that it is frequently hard to tell where one stops and the other begins.
The collapse of the Pashtun drug monopoly under the Taliban rule after the invasion produced an excess population in the Pashtun areas that they could no longer support. Following Afghan tradition - the way to get rid of excess population was endemic feuding and small scale warfare similar to that of the pre-colonial Native Americans and early medieval Scots. (The Taliban did not stop all opium production in Afghanistan - instead they forced every other tribe but the Pashtuns to cease cultivation - thus giving them a state monopoly on the opium trade.)
The biggest problem we are facing in Afghanistan is the fact that two decades of war between 1980 and 2000 resulted in two generations of functionally illiterate people. The reason we have been building and subsidizing schools is because we need to build up enough of a base of literate people to staff essential government functions. The reason tribal structures remain strong is because there is no competing structure that can provide govrenance. Literacy is required in order to create anything larger than a tribal or feudal political structure. Thus we have at least another decade before we can see an effective governement system appear in Afghanistan simply because that is how long it will take to reach the minimum number of literate people.
Wow:
You heard something on the news. We all know that the people reporting the news are experts in the fields they report on - right?
And apparently - you did not think about this yourself. For example, you made the comment that the "talk to the locals." care to explain just how many Dutch troops are fluent in any of the languages spoken in Afghanistan?
And care to explain how 'talking to the locals' makes them harder to shoot when the enemy is from outside that area and does not care about the lives of the local civilians?
Has it occurred to you that the Dutch troops are assigned to an area where there is very little enemy activity? And that they keep moving around to new 'quiet' areas whenever the place they are at gets 'hot?' (Hint: Nobody is really impressed with the Dutch, German or French troops.)
Did you think about this at all?
Care to tell me what in your background gives you the ability to determine what is or is not a 'real soldier?'
And people wonder why I am so cynical about the American people.
Activated- Us vets need to go easy on the civilian populace. It stinks when no civilians show up for the next open house. You have Dutch and then you have MARSOF. You have Germans and then you have GSG 9. You have the French and then you have Commandos Marine. Ok, maybe not so much the French. Are you looking for call from the PAO ;) You are starting to sound like my dad.
Thanks,
TinFoil
I never had to worry about reporters and PAO types ever since I told a reporter: "Get that camera out of my face before I cram it down your throat."
I would make the world's worst spokesman because I have no respect for reporters and am not afraid to let them know it.
Ok, now you are the one sounding Gung Ho. The old man (COL) loved sending me to work with the press. Just a different skill set. I was good in a fight too.
TinFoil
So are those the America values you are supposed to have been defending?
Because you wear a uniformed and are paid by the public, you think you have the right to threaten violence on the press?
Why the hostility?
A free press is at least as important as a military.
Yes, that comment tells us a lot about Activated, doesn't it?
Trooper, C Squadron SAS (Rhodesia)
Kill rate 15 to 1.
My little poem, written in the SAS.
"Sold my soul to the Devil, and the fault is only mine,
Sold by a little squiggle, on a little dotted line."
It is a mighty hard thing to kill a man. If your target is an armoured vehicle, it makes your job a lot easier.
There is a reason why cats are empathetic. It makes them better killers.
Empathy is the hallmark of an great warrior. Genghis Kahn had it in spades.
Tsun Tsu could take a city without drawing blood. Now that is what I call fine soldiering.
You Yanks could do a lot better in Afghanistan.
But it is my opinion that your engagement there serves many objectives, one of which is distraction for the masses at home.
Another is so stuffed shirts behind desks in America can pretend to be soldiers.
You have absolutely no intention of letting things quieten down. Hence the provocation with drones.
Pity about your kids.
Off topic. Apologies to all.
You have the English and then you have the SAS. Good gosh. Did you meet Thatcher?
Thanks, Arthur Robey. Yes, it is a pity and what you say is true, but this has been the norm for every state that begins a walk down the fascist road (often called corporatism nowadays to distinguish it from the bastardization of the word fascism). Bush's war is now Obama's war and it will become whomever's war is elected after Obama, either in 2012 or 2016. Fascism and the military-industrial complex know only one way to profit.
I was US Army, out on a medical in 1985. Things I saw and heard on active duty have left me with very little love for the "intelligence" services worldwide.
When my unit first arrived in Kuwait in 2004 we were given advice by some British officers and the way they were 'successfully' managing Basra.
When we hit Balad - we realized _real fast_ that taking this advice to heart would do nothing but get us killed.
And FYI - I was in the TOC when a British unit (that had left their sector and crossed a unit boundry into a US sector) ambushed a US patrol. The only reason our troops did not return fire was because the recognised the orange-red tracers. The only reason we did not hit your folks with artillery was because we did not believe your TOC when they assured us that no British troops were anywhere near the area. As far as Im am concerned British have excellent troops but have the following issues: 1) None of them can read a map 2) your leadership is completely incababile of tracking and accuratly reporting the location of your own people and 3) you really need to lose some of the ego.
BTW the troops who impressed the hell out of me in Iraq were the Japanese.
My folks?
My folks have been in Africa since 1834.
Are you sure the British were not Your folks?
My Dad was given an opportunity to visit England after serving in Italy. He declined. He just wanted to go home. (Rhodesia)
We are both colonials.
It was my observation that the side that makes the least cock ups wins.
The Dutch are leaving Afghanistan. All 1900 of them.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100801/D9HAQKM81.html
Not everyone would agree with your belief that nuclear power is the "low risk" approach.
Even if it were, how does that address the problems of over-consumption, poor distribution of resources and lack of employment?
Those people who do not agree obviously have never been trained in Risk Management. Nor are they considering things such as second and third order effects (For example: which killed more people? The Chernoybl nuclear accident or the economic collapse of the Sovier Union?)
A nuclear accident cannot destroy our country. However - an economic collapse caused by unaffordable energy can.
In my view, there is nothing that is going to stop the green line below from unfolding. We can change the slope of the line but that's it. Maybe nuclear power will help with that (probably will) but my guess is that as the economy contracts as the financial bubble pops, we will have a lot of excess energy until we shut down some power plants.
There is simply no guarantee that we will need all the power plants we have now.
The problem with your analysis is that it appears to be more agenda driven than anything else. You discount any increase in energy output as 'techno-fantasy' and arbitrially set a level as 'earth stewardship.'
Have you considered the human consequences of your 'earth stewardship' social production level? For example - can food production be maintained at that level - or are we going to see the periodic famines that were a hallmark of preindustrial Europe?
BTW - in your eco-fantasy, who decideds which 1/3 of the population gets to live?
Of course I've thought of the human consequences. Why do you think I'm doing my best to get people ready?
If you are going to assert, like Nick, that as fossil energy declines the economy will not contract, I've already gone through that with him and I'm not interested in having that conversation again.
Please read:
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Peak Oil
http://www.postpeakliving.com/blog/aangel/estimating-economic-impacts-pe...
Especially Hirsch's paper linked within.
The problem is that I have been hearing this since I was a teenager in the 1970's. So far none of the prediction I heard then have panned out.
I see you making the assumption that people are not going to wake up and tell the anti-nuclear activists to 'sit down and shut up' and then build nuclear power plants to replace fossil fuel power.
As I pointed out - we are already seeing the beginnings of a switch of our transportation infrastructure from gasoline to electricity. Care to explain why this transition will not occur?
Because the world's largest credit contraction has just begun.
Perhaps you've heard of it?
Credit is simply a new straw for doomers now when the PO doom gets postponed year after year. However, the credit contraction seems to have been met successfully already. You better start brainstorming a few new reasons for impending doom.
PO is a fact. It didn't get postponed.
We can thank the credit contraction for 2 things:
1. We won't be needing any dramatic new power sources for a while, since the economy will shrink faster than resource production.
2. Our greenhouse gas emissions will decline without any new regulations.
PO is not a fact. It may become a fact, but it is speculation for now.
The economy is expanding - the recovery has been underway for about a year now. I'd guess your GHG emissions will keep expanding for another two decades or so.
The economy is expanding
Some people confuse an expanding money supply and expansion in debt as economic growth.
If you say so. However, I was talking about economic growth, as in increases in GDP.
Really? Oil production will continue to increase forever?
My interpretation was that he meant that PO is now.
Sure, but "now" can be anytime from 2005 (the beginning of the current plateau) to 2020 (the IEA's projection) and the consequences are the same.
If the economy doesn't continue down its deflationary path (doubtful, in my view), the only difference between those two dates is:
a) we have perhaps a few million electric cars on the road (peanuts)
b) we have another several hundred million humans on the planet
Arguing over the exact date of PO is a pointless exercise when we have the system we have and the people running the system who are committed to growing it until the wheels fall off.
Obama says U.S. economy has to grow faster
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67125P20100802
I have no faith that in ten years we can change the growth paradigm for the entire planet.
You may believe economic growth can continue forever; I do not share that view.
The few million electric cars may actually be quite important. Having the tech and production facilities a bit more mature will make further ramping that much easier.
We don't need to change the "growth paradigm". If there is no growth, there is no growth. Stuff still works.
I've done the math...a few million electric cars are irrelevant.
What math are you using?
Did you read my second sentence, or did you stop after the first?
Yes, I read your second sentence and chose not to address it.
I was, however, responding to your assertion that:
And there is no math that I can see in which a few million electric cars make any difference whatsoever to oil depletion. So if you choose share it, it would be interesting to see how you back up that point.
The second sentence explains why I think the few million are important: The increased maturity and volume of the electric car market, infrastructure and technology will make us able to ramp faster and more efficiently.
If we have no growth, Capitalism doesn't work. Problem there?
I think this "active8" is a provocateur.
I doubt it, I think that someone who isn't actively pessimistic about future energy supplies absent current levels of petroleum production just stands out.
That, and we aren't exactly swimming in current Iraq/Afghanistan veterans around here. I know a few outside the internet and much of what he says on the military front I have heard before.
Frankly, there are a few folks kicking around here that are too worried about dying to remember to live and way too many who are afraid of being wrong.
Those people who do not agree obviously have never been trained in Risk Management.
Really?
Hrmmmm.
Say, what's the risk of having sleeping security guards in a Fission Plant? What's the risk when management is informed and the guards keep sleeping? How about once The Federal Government is informed?
Nor are they considering things such as second and third order effects
Property rendered non-productive and blocked off - is that a 2nd order or 3rd order?
Is having your nuclear power plants bombed/attacked a 2nd or 3rd order effect?
However - an economic collapse caused by unaffordable energy can.
You'd think a good risk manager would have asked the question - "is energy approaching the actual cost" or how about "was energy priced too cheap in the past" and then modeled behavior not on the cheap price but what the price should have been.
I've yet to have the whiners about energy price explain why something that can be produced on a year-to-year basis costs more per gallon than something that takes many human generations to be produced. (milk VS a gallon of gasoline) As you seem to have it all figured out, do explain why the replaceable in a human timeframe is more expensive than the irreplaceable in a human timeframe.
Apply your same risk model to your nearest refinery.
Chemistry is much more of a threat than radiation.
Apply your same risk model to your nearest refinery.
Exclusion area
30 km/19 mi exclusion zone around the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor disaster
VS
I can't find any stated exclusion area around Bhopal. Nor the Union Carbide smelter in the Appalachians.
Now I'm doubting its because they don't exist - but more because they are smaller than 19 miles.
Love Canal officially covers 36 square blocks - again less than 19 miles. 21 tons of toxins VS how many pounds of Uranium involvement in Chernobyl?
Chemistry is much more of a threat than radiation.
The heavy metal nastyness of Uranium gives you chemistry AND physics in one package! The effects of small aerosol particles of Uranium will be part of ongoing research.
(and I note you did not address any of the points. Typical of the pro-nukers when they are not making up stats on safety.
If you can explain a risk model that involves radioactive material from a reactor core becoming aerosolized with any reactor model that is likely to be built today, then that is a valid concern.
I'm not going to hold my breath though, I don't think you have one.
What points?
And who needs to make up safety stats? How many people have died in nuclear power related incidents in the last decade? How many people have died in chemical power related incidents so far this year?
Just because you are afraid of radiation doesn't make it more dangerous, it just makes you more afraid.
Do you have any hard numbers or risk models to support your claims of unacceptable risk, or is it all Chernobyl?
New Scientist 31st July 2010 pp24
Wade Allison argues that the safe radiation level should be increased 1000 fold 5 sieverts per lifetime and no more than 0.1 sieverts per month.
His argument is evidence based.
Prof. James Lovelock says that our fears are overblown because we evolved on a radio active planet created in the detritus of the first stars. The first super-massive stars synthesise the entire suite of isotopes.
He sights the fact that potassium in our bones is naturally radioactive.
My bold.
From this wiki entry on Potassium.
Our bones are way over the safe limit.
wade allison
This would be the one who says "The wildlife at Chernobyl today is reported to be thriving, despite being radioactive.".
Is reported is the standard? Not 'studies say' but 'a bunch of NEWS REPORTERS have said'? Yea....news reporters - the fair and balanced ones?
Professor Timothy Mousseau from the University of South Carolina, US, and Dr Anders Moller from the University of Paris-Sud, France
and
Quotes from the actual researchers on the ground VS Wade's standard and, well, your standard.
Interesting. You know what else is interesting? The hormone called Vitamin D.
The USDA has a number based on observed effects like rickets. A number for a minimum level is set based on that observation. And yet, research is showing better health outcomes if you have more than the minimum. Interesting that if you aren't looking for something you don't find it.
The evidence based science shows as you increase radiation (and heavy metals) you increase the mutation rate. Thus an increase in mutation will be the effect of an increase in radiation. Thus adding to the base level isn't going to be helpful.
Your position is to increase the mutation rate. And your argument ignores the increase of mutations
I've shown the failure mode and removal of material access caused by Chernobyl. I've asked about 'bad' nation-states having fission power VS other 'good' nation states - and perhaps one day TOD will have the discussion over "the peaceful atom" idea and its failure to deliver.
Yet the huberus of some continue - demanding more fission power. Humanities response to attacks on fission reactors may just torpedo the idea of having fission-product spreading targets. What will the 'lets solve the issue of energy depletion with fission power' going to do then? Just keep denying the demonstrated reality as shown with 'more radiation is OK' and upthread 'lets ignore Chernobyl' arguments is my guess.
If you can explain a risk model that involves radioactive material from a reactor core becoming aerosolized
That model exists today. Happening now. You might want to sit down and read some 'modern' books and white papers on the issues of depleted Uranium and its still being researched effects when the particle size is reduced via the use as munition.
(and that effect is heavy metal along with radiation)
And who needs to make up safety stats?
I could go back thru the TOD records and find the poster who made a bogus safety claim and my comparing it to lottery and lighting statistics. Are you going to admit you were wrong if I spent my time on it - I doubt that.
Just because you are afraid of radiation doesn't make it more dangerous, it just makes you more afraid.
Afraid? Interesting claim.
And you make this based on?
Do you have any hard numbers or risk models to support your claims of unacceptable risk
I've already pointed out
And I posted this link in the past:
http://old.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id2165/pg1/index.html
or is it all Chernobyl?
Interesting. I show a valid failure mode and you want to avoid discussing that failure?
I'll note I've posted the issue of sleeping security guards - something that even an 8th grader can understand.
Yet the pro-nukers haven't bothered defending the behavior.
There's no mystery.
The natural rate of unemployment has risen due to the ability of employers to ship US jobs overseas and the long term effects of software automation.
The quickest cure is to reverse the flow of jobs out of the country by requiring domestic content in all products and services.
The problem is that this will cut corporate profits and the US political classes are enslaved to profit-mad corporations.
True.
I was a displaced worker in 1990.
The unemployment office wanted to retrain me as a dang truck driver.
that strikes me as a seriously flawed analysis.
US manufacturing jobs have been getting offshored my entire adult life, so at least since 1972.
And up until fairly recently the US has had an enormous boom in employment, enough to soak up millions and millions of illegal immigrants relatively easily.
also, i would submit that the effect of 'software automation' has been an enormous boost in productivity, real boost in real productivity, not phantom statistics. this has helped fuel the growth that led to the enormous number of new jobs over the past few decades.
but over the past decade or so, the real estate bubble has been the biggest source of new jobs, along with the attendant build-out in dispersed commercial real-estate. All those mini-malls with all those franchise holders. A lot of those are Mac jobs, but not all.
For example, take your average Starbucks- it has what- a manager, an assistant manager, maybe an assistant assistant manager, i am not familiar enough with the particulars, but my guess is that every Starbucks represents at least a couple $50,000 incomes and even the barristas get bennies. My point is that those are real jobs, this is who we are nowadays.
The suburbs have become employment centers. Light industry gets done there. Distribution hubs are there. those are real jobs.
malls are stressed, storefronts are going vacant at an alarming rate, even in prosperous affluent suburbs, commercial RE is way overbuilt relative to demand. Franchise holders will get stressed and break.
but i would guess they will regroup and try again.
we will become a nation of shopkeepers, much like the Brits.
and we will want cheap clothes and cars from abroad, so there is no way there will be a constituency for domestic content. those days are gone.
You should look at where people were being employed. It was mainly low paying service sector jobs. How will these jobs exist say, 20 years in the future?
It was some twisted global economic shenanigans that even allowed for a nation of people to apparently thrive by simply providing services to each other, and reselling domestically goods from elsewhere. Those days are gone.
well, in the long run, yes, but...
i am reminded of the old joke about the poor farmer who wins the lottery and they ask him what he will do now that he is rich and he replies something to the effect of "I don't know, just keep farming till the money runs out i guess."
the point being that Americans are getting used to employment being much more episodic or contingent that ever before, and more Americans are getting used to being their own bosses and even if it means they work harder for longer hours at sub-minimum wages, they are willing to accept the trade-off.
so the shop will stay open with no customers for a long time, the bank is in no hurry to foreclose, the suppliers have to be flexible...the whole process of creeping collapse can be a protracted affair.
ditto for the semi-skilled journeymen and the general contractors and the independent owner/operators and all the other real estate related occupations that have grown like topsy over the past couple decades...
if people have some hope and a little income and they still have their independence and dignity...they will cling tenaciously to the status quo.
I can agree that workers in developed countries are participating in a race to the bottom to become equiv to 3rd world slums. Presumably the flow of migrants will balance at that point.
You need to thinks this through. If we block the imports of products into the US - other countries will ban US made goods in retaliation.
The result will be: a lower standard of living for US consumers because they must now pay higher prices for domestically made produts; and a net loss of jobs as jobs making products for sale overseas go away.
In addition, you made the mistake of looking ath the effects of a crisis and mistok them for the crisis itself.
The course I am currently taking (Crisis Management) teaches that it is critically important to identify the _real_ crisis and recognise that that crisis may not be the apparent crisis. In this case the crisis is not the 'ability' of employers to ship US jobs overseas. The _real_ crisis is the inability of US employers to compete on the world markets.
If you look at the _real_ crisis and fix it - the crisis of jobs going overseas vanishes.
...if the real crisis is "the inability of US employers to compete on world markets", to fix it we would need to look at why that is.
For the most part, it is because of how their employees choose to live. If you look at why we are out-competed by China and India for labor, it is because of how their employees live. From our perspective, it is easy to say they are poor and exploited and can't possibly be happy - big families in small houses, women at home cooking and gardening and making things, adults walking or bicycling to work etc. From their perspective, perhaps they think we live the most wasteful, unhappy and isolated lives imaginable - kicking our kids out as soon as they are grown, a car for every adult, motorized toys of every variety, racing around doing pointless things alone, everyone compulsively addicted to something, like kids trapped in adult bodies, requiring ridiculous amounts of income to keep the whole thing afloat...
4 of the top 10 most profitable corporations are US.
http://www.billshrink.com/blog/6715/the-worlds-most-profitable-companies/
29 out of the top 100 corporations are US.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/full_list/
What you probably mean is that US workers can't compete with $1 a day Chindians in countries without environmental laws or worker rights.
Right.
US workers need preferential treatment over slave labor.
We agree on that, right?
Chindians typically have much more than $1 per day and they do have both environmental laws and worker rights. As all other nations, including the US, they have the laws they can afford and wages that are in parity with their productivity. As their productivity increases more than yours, the wage and regulation gaps are diminishing as we speak.
Obviously, US workers compete with all other workers in all other nations. You have N times the pay if your infrastructure and your education makes you N times more productive. Just as it should be.
No. Chindians aren't slaves and US workers don't need and shouldn't get preferential treatment. Protectionism is a stupid idea. Always was.
Average income of a factory assembly line labor in Pakistan is Rs. 6,000 per month which is equal to $75 or $900 a year. Family size is 6 and there are two workers on average per family so its $1800 for six people or $300 per person for the poorest. Average per capita income in pakistan (comprising of all classes rich or poor) is $800 to $900. The difference between the poorest full time workers and average per capita gdp is about 3 times.
Average income of the lowest level full time worker in usa is like $8 a hour. 50 hours a week, 200 hours a months, its $1600 a month. For a year its $19,200. Even if participation rate is 50%, per capita income of lower class is $9,600. Per capita gdp of usa is like $47,000 a year (14 trillion / 300 million), so the difference between the poorest full time workers and average per capita gdp is 5 times.
Who has more unjustice? Who has more wealth accumulation in a few hands and lockers? Who has more humiliation of labor? Who has more exploitation?
I guess on per capita basis the poorest of china are much better than poorest of pakistan due to rapid economic and salary growth, when economy of china was boosting like 9% a year in last decade the salaries of workers was increasing like 7% a year. In usa even in 1970s 3 to 5 percent growth rate, salary growth rate is 0 and the present 2 to 3 percent growth rate translates into still a zero growth rate in salaries.
Indian workers are perhaps somewhat less paid than pakistanis but difference is not very significant.
Oh yes, there is a war going out in neighbourhood of Pakistan...
It's a myth that US salaries haven't grown.
Baloney.
Salaries for CEOs have grown. Salaries for everyone else are static or shrinking in real (inflation/time adjusted) terms.
And Real People Prices- food (including water) and energy, oh-so-conveniently cut out of the "official" inflation figure- have been rising seriously for some time now.
So even people who have gotten raises are losing ground.
Wrong again. Salaries are rising in real terms.
The fact that people are spending a smaller % of income on food is your proof than wages have risen?
Why use a graph going back to the 1930s? Of course people spent a large % of income on food in 1930s. Most people had little money, and food is a big priority.
Now food is relatively cheep an one of the items people have some control over. The costs of housing, fuel, education, health care have all risen drastically in the past decade, so a slight decrease in food purchase doesn't prove your point.
The graph going back to the 30-ies was what I had available, and it disproved a claim of VictorianTech. It also showed that food prices have been falling relative to income more or less all the time.
But ok, here is a better graph, showing household income statistic. Add that the proportion of households with one adult (instead of two) has been increasing all along, and you should realize that real wages do increase.
The food cost graph is misleading because transportation costs have been going in exactly the opposite direction to food. Transportation costs have been going up as food costs went down. 100 years ago the average family spent about 2% of its income on transportation (almost everybody walked almost everywhere). Today, it is somewhere around 20-30% because almost everybody drives almost everywhere.
Modern Americans spend around 60% of their incomes on transportation+housing, and the total is rather consistent because the more they spend on transportation, the less they spend on housing.
The implication of that for the post-peak oil era is that, as fuel costs rise, people will have to spend less on housing - i.e. smaller houses, more people per house, more people homeless. Be ready for it.
People spend a lot on housing and transportation because their wages has increased so much. Bigger houses, nicer cars and longer trips are popular choices.
Your argument is like "people still use their money, so real wages haven't increased".
Or perhaps they'll cut down even more on fuel use than they would need to to compensate for the price increase.
Sadly, the increase in American's real wages since American oil production peaked in 1970 has not matched the increase in their transportation costs. Transportation is eating up a bigger and bigger percentage of their incomes.
Unfortunately, in the last decade or so, they have attempted to defend their standard of living by borrowing money - in particular, re-mortgaging their houses to buy bigger vehicles so they could drive longer and longer distances.
This came to a sudden and unpleasant end in 2008, culminating in the sub-prime mortgage meltdown. It was painful to watch, because it was so predictable.
And it will become even more unpleasant in the post-peak-oil era, because even higher fuel costs will take an unaffordable bite out of most people's incomes. It's really going to hurt them. This is also very predictable.
The choice to spend an increasing percentage of income on oversized luxury goods is not a very good proof that real wages hasn't increased. I have shown the standard of living has increased. It is undisputable.
Not in defense - rather in offense.
No, it will be affordable. If it isn't affordable, it won't be spent.
I don't think I'm arguing that American money wages haven't increased (albeit marginally) in recent decades. I think I'm arguing that the money was badly spent on the assumption that the good times would continue forever. In fact, people borrowed a lot of money on the assumption that the good times would continue forever. They bought big SUVs and big houses that they couldn't afford.
However, it all came to an end with a bang in 2008, and people are suffering because of that. They wouldn't be in nearly so much trouble if they had anticipated the problems and made the right decisions - i.e. buy a smaller car, buy a smaller house within walking distance of shopping, take public transit to work, put the money you save into high-quality investments. (This is pretty much what the Chinese middle class is doing right now.)
And, unfortunately, Americans still haven't wisened up, so they will suffer even more in future. I feel bad for them.
You feel bad for the world's richest because of their big houses and cars? Ok. I think I'll hold my pity at bay as long as they still have the top GDP per capita of the world's populous nations.
They may have environmental laws on the books, but they are far from enforced. Consider the contrast of say the Northeast where there are now blues in hudson, and salmon in CT rivers. Do you think restoring habitat is a Chinese priority? In truth, for decades I've felt that we have not only exported jobs, but we've exported some key industrial pollutants.
They probably handle this better than you did when you were at the same level of GDP per capita.
Possibly - given the Chinese track record, they would probably simple mandate that the 2 million people inhabiting the upper hudson valley, the 2 million in the various CT river valleys move to Utah and give them 5% of the value of their land. then use the army if there was any dissent. Democracies are slow and messy things, having fought the local government and the state government through the courts and won, it brings some additional confidence to the creaky machine.
This is globalisation in a nutshell - the race to the bottom.
Protectionism is a stupid idea. Always was.
There are a bunch of people who make money off of the 'protection-ism' of the military-industrial-congressional complex.
In fact, many jobs in this sector are 'only to be done' by US Citizens....citizens with even more protection-ism of a government label like 'secret' or 'top secret'.
I look forward to hearing the arguments about making the market of 'secret' and 'top secret' holders to a non-protected status.
Wow, you found an obvious exception. Congratulations!
So you can't argue your position then?
Oh yes I can, but your counter-example didn't really excite me. If I'm to defend something that is so mainstream among academics in the relevant field, I'd like a more interesting challenge.
Try to keep up with global trends. They days of the $1 a day Chinese worker are long gone.
In 2009 the average annual wage of workers in Bejing was 44,715 yuan.
At a conversion rate of 0.15 yuan per dollar, the average Bejing worker was making about $6,700 per year, so workers in Bejing were making close to $30 per day. The Chinese keep the value of their currency artificially low, so at market exchange rates they would have been making more than that.
That is low by Western standards, but with a Chinese economic growth rate average 10% per year, the gap between Chinese and Western wages is closing fast. Workers in India are not doing as well, but Indian wages are also rising rapidly.
Most Chinese workers can now be considered to be middle class. It costs a lot less to be middle class in China than in the US because they don't need to buy the big SUV or the big house in the suburbs. They can live in a small apartment, ride a bicycle to work, and still have a middle-class standard of living. Typically they have 25% of their incomes left over at the end of the month to put in the bank or send their kid (1) to college.
It's the fact that they are spending so much on educating their kids that you should fear, because it means the next generation of Chinese kids will be better educated than the average American kid (if they aren't already.)
As Stoneleigh points out, all empires go through this stage. They become too rich in the their later life and the menial work is outsourced to other countries who are willing to climb the wealth later (subsistence agriculture -> small manufacturing -> factory manufacturing -> office work and services). The U.S. (and Western nations in general) are simply following a well described maturation process.
It ends in collapse, every time, because the empire is eventually hollowed out.
You can delay it a little but you can't fight trends of this size and nature.
On a higher level, Greer does a good job of distinguishing the larger trend that recent, fossil energy-fueled empires fit within:
We are just now entering the Scarcity Economy (Scarcity Industrialism above) but there will be quite a bit of salvage occurring, too. We will be fully in the Salvage Economy when we start dismantling skyscrapers for their steel because it takes less energy to do that than mine more ore.
Greer and I guessed with the 150 year time periods but it was just a guess. We could easily enter the Salvage Economy by mid-century, in my view.
The only option now left to most people is, "How do I prepare for this?' The more ambitious might ask, "How can I and my community not just survive, but thrive?"
I see this as making the facts support the conclusion rather than the facts driving the conclusion.
In addition it is a rather simplistic view of history - especially since I cannot think of one civilization that went through this cycle. For example - look at the long term advancement of civilization in Europe. Despite a cycle of Spain, then France then Germany, then Britain gaining promenence we still see a continual increase in the standard of living in all of those countries - even when another country eclipsed another in political power.
BTW - if you watch closely, you will see the beginnings of a move away from metals to composites. I suspect that in the future we will be dismantling skyscrapers more because we want to put a new building there than for the value of the metal.
BTW has it occurred to you that Malthus was proven wrong over a hundred years ago?
I say old chap, a bit premature aren't we?
I would say Malthus is alive and well and living in Zimbabwe.
Perhaps he will pay you a visit soon.
Malthus is not alive and well in Zimbabwe. The agricultural collapse there was caused by a land redistribution schemes that took land from the people with white skin and gave it to members of Mugabe's favored tribe. The problem was that the white people had properly capitalized their farms and the new owners knew little to nothing about farming.
The result was a rapid decline in food production requiring that food be imported. However - the country did not have enough exports to pay for the food imports. This led to a shortage of food which produced larger food prices. In order to pay for the import of food - Mugabe devalued the currency. In order to combat rising food prices he imposed price controls on foodstuffs. These price controls caused farming to decline even further because the fixed food prices combined with a devalued currency meant that it cost a farmer more to grow the food than he could sell it for.
Zimbabwe is an example of idiotic economic policies - not Malthus.
Empathy Please.
Look at it from Mugabe's point of view.
"Ideally Zimbabwe must have a population of 6 Million". Bob Mugabe.
He has got 11 Million.
The last thing he needs is a surplus of food creating even more people.
The collapse of the original Muwanamutapa society that created the Zimbabwe Ruins
is believed to have been caused by a weakening due to environmental limits being met and subsequent destruction by the Rosvi.
Bob understands Malthus.
Egypt. Aztecs. Mayans. Chaco Canyon. Easter Island. Rome. Assyria.
I could go on but you do not seem to care about the actual facts of history. The increasing standard of living over the last 500 years is directly related to industrialization which has been directly dependent upon fossil fuels.
As Tainter notes, collapse is not a foregone conclusion because if another energy source successfully replaces fossil fuels, then society can engage in additional cycles of expansion. Yet expansion itself is bounded by the limits of the planet on which we live which means that our entire economic system, which is dependent on growth, must be replaced by one that is not. Again, such a problem should be solvable but the real question is will it actually get solved? And working against those solutions are people like you, certain and smug in your assurance that business as usual will never end.
History is replete with human failures. The assumption that it cannot happen to us is just as invalid as the assumption that it must happen to us.
What expansion are you talking about? Total fertility is dropping toward and below replacement rates all over the world.
No, our economic system does not depend on growth. Where do you guys get that idea from?
I am talking about economic expansion, jeppen.
Our money is debt. Debt depends on repayment, with interest. Interest means the money supply, which supposed to represent the available goods and services, must grow. If it does not grow, then the existing system either begins to fail (witness the current credit contraction) as interest payments cannot be met, or otherwise wealth ends up concentrated in the hands of the few.
Successful modern industrial economies grow their cumulative goods and services. The requirements for growth to pay back debt+interest are widely recognized. Only academic theoreticians enamored of an abstract non-existent "free market" (that does not exist in the modern world) claim that our current system does not require growth. Now perhaps such a free market system could get along without growth. But the current system does require it because money IS debt and debt requires repayment with interest.
No, they don't. You pay interest with profits in the case of corporations and with wages in the case of employees, and you can have both profits and wages without growth.
This is more erronous thinking. The system doesn't fail and interest payments can be met.
Only if you define "successful" as "growing", which is circular. Modern industrial economies do well without growth. There is unemployment, but that can be fixed by less regulation.
if the interest is being paid but there is zero growth what happens?
if the total amount of money is static that money must become concentrated..no?
Nothing in particular.
Yes, if the interest is higher than inflation and the interest surplus is higher than the cost of operation and credit losses for the lender, then the lender will have made a real profit and will own a higher share of world money. There's no real problem there either, and no real difference to how it is today.
well there you have it
No, you are focussing on the wrong part of the equation.
The overall money supply is injected primarily by the banks. If I borrow $100 but must pay back $120, where does the extra $20 come from? Don't just say "from wages or profits" because that doesn't answer the question of where the money to pay the wages and profits come from. That's like answering the question, "Where do cars come from?" with "the car dealership" rather than going back earlier in the causal chain.
GreyZone is exactly correct.
That $20 for interest is taken from money that is circulating in the system. What is the problem with that? That someone then sits on less money? How is that new?
I give up. Let someone else try.
I already stated that with no growth in goods and services (and thus money supply) then money becomes concentrated in the hands of the few. Later after telling me I was all wrong, jeppen agrees that this is the case and then says "so what?" about it.
Eventually this leads to feudal-like conditions, with the majority living and working on ever decreasing wages/salaries and being effectively "owned" by the ultra-wealthy, but in the minds of "free market" activists like jeppen this is entirely ok. Jeppen apparently missed the memo that people can and will kill the ultra-wealthy if the mismatch becomes too large OR that the ultra-wealthy will kill the peasants in order to subordinate them.
But, according to jeppen, this is all fine and dandy, regardless of whatever social outcomes it creates. As long as his mythical "free market" is allowed unrestrained action to rob from some to enrich others, that's all he cares about. And make no bones about it, interest has long been seen as abhorrent, from Plato going forward for thousands of years. Only in the late enlightenment period were significant arguments made to allow interest. Yet even those arguments failed to see the sorts of absurdities with which our entire society is burdened today due to the money leeches. (And that is precisely what a collector of interest is - a money leech.)
*sigh* I agreed that lenders *may* make profits, just as always, yes. That doesn't mean they always will, or that that'll lead to a wealth-concentration-spiral without end. Your argument is that wealth doesn't concentrate today because money-supply-growth from banks lending money keeps diluting the banks money, or what? You guys are barely coherent. Can you show me a clear explanation of your view from a renowned economist instead of just rambling on like if secterists' odd memes were self-evident truths? In the meantime, I'll just submit a quote of Solow from 2008: "There is no reason at all capitalism could not survive with slow or even no growth".
basically yes
debt doesn't dilute the "banks money" because the money created out the credit supplied by the bank is used to buy goods(requiring energy to make) thus limiting the effects of inflation.. consumers borrow the money to consume more. the bank invents the money when it lends it...thats where money comes from.
None of this is true. You've been making up your own monetary theory as you go along, and you don't really understand the fundamentals.
It is true that people want the economy to grow because it makes them happy; if the economy grows you want to expand the money supply because otherwise people won't have more money to buy the extra goods and services; and incurring debt is one way to make it easier for them to buy the extra goods and services.
But all these factors are not necessarily connected. If they become disconnected, then very bad things can happen. In fact very bad things did happen. I could explain in more technical terms, but you would have to accept modern monetary theory definitions to understand the explanation, and I get the feeling that's not going to happen.
For people who actually want to understand it, see Economics for Dummies for an explanation of the basics.
1. Our money is debt. Refute this. You cannot because it is true. Our money is the debt of the US government, backed by the "full faith and credit" (credit is just another word for debt) of that government. Furthermore, money is not just cash in circulation. In a fiat economy, money is also the credit available as well.
2. Debt only has 3 possible outcomes. (A) It gets repaid. (B) It defaults. (C) It is forgiven. Rolling a debt over is simply repayment plus additional interest. Since the normal expectation is (A), therefore debt depends on repayment, with interest. Refute that statement, please.
3. In a fixed money supply economy, even with no GDP growth, interest repayment means that someone becomes poorer, at the expense of a banker who has done no productive work. Poorer means social unrest, and usually violence to those in power. This is why philosophers as far back as Plato objected to interest. Therefore the alternative is to grow the money supply. But at what rate? At the rate of growth of GDP means prices remain roughly stable, minus supply and demand changes. Growth at a rate faster than the growth in GDP means that more money is chasing relatively fewer goods and services, resulting in inflation. Growth at a rate slower than the growth in GDP yields deflation which can result in less money chasing more goods and services, ultimately resulting in lower prices. Given the above choices, monetary authorities usually try to grow the money supply and they choose to grow it at a rate equal to or slightly above GDP growth rates. Thus the modern money system with interest incurred depends on growth in the monetary supply and in GDP to maintain social stability. Contraction (austerity in current parlance) leads to problems - witness Greece for a recent example.
I stand by my statement and urge you to refute each part of it.
1+2: So when is this debt of the US government repaid, and how does it pay interest? It is not and it does not, right? The "debt" is just circulated.
3: The banker has done productive work. He has evaluated an investment and found it sound and supplied capital to make it happen. Also, that someone pays interest and thus becomes "poorer" does not mean social unrest. A moderate inflation is ok with a zero-growth economy too, and will keep things rolling in the sense that you will have to find profitable investments to keep your wealth. We don't need to refute your statements, because you don't back them up with anything tangible. You just keep repeating yourself.
Do you truly believe that? Have been out of your ivory tower into the real world recently. Trust me there is plenty of social unrest out there and it's growing. It may even be coming to a neighborhood near you. Have you vacationed in Greece recently?
http://www.roubini.com/euro-monitor/255306/political_unrest_on_the_rise_...
The only way a bankster will ever do any productive work is if we give him a mop and a bucket and set him to cleaning the bathrooms in the cancer ward of a hospital...
There will certainly come a day of reckoning when the banksters will have to pay the piper.
No, but a friend has, and he didn't see any unrest. I didn't find the Greek protests very dramatic, btw. There are always stupid people and communists who think somebody else should pay for them, but most citizens are reasonable.
If you're that ignorant, I don't think I can help you. No explanations are likely to get through to you.
Funny I wanted to say the exact same thing about you... The reality is neither of us is ignorant, we just hold diametrically opposed world views. I happen to believe that it is people with your world view that got us in the mess we find ourselves in today... You don't believe we even have problem.
At the end of the day it probably won't matter one way or the other.
I think it is people with your world view that has gotten the Jews in a mess time and time again. (Yeah, perhaps I Godwin'ed this - but I really do mean it. Put together, your views on immigration, trade, economy and banks, along with your thinly veiled calls for violence, are quite disturbing.)
Very interesting comment indeed. FYI my business partner is a Black Latino and my son is Jewish and I come from an international multicultural and multiethnic global family. I'm more a pacifist than anything else even though I know what it feels like to have a loaded gun held to my head.
But yes, I do think that certain groups of economic elites should be held accountable for their transgressions. It so happens I actually have lived in areas where I have seen riots caused by the injustice and greed of the privileged few.
Perhaps you're are interpreting my reading aloud of the writing on the wall as a thinly veiled call for violence. If so you are deeply mistaken. I'm just saying what I think I see and what I have seen happen with my own eyes in the past.
I'm afraid you are not going to hear about me on the evening news for inciting the masses to overthrow the greedy capitalists. I can hardly even get my closest friends and family members organized for a Sunday picnic in the park. I apologize for being so scary and disturbing. I'm sorry I frightened you so badly...
Yes, all that rings very true, bless your tolerant pacifist heart! Here I was, thinking that, for instance, your talk about "injustice and greed" next to colorful scenarios of violence on elites five times per post ware meant to be threathening and inciting.
Stupid me - you're just looking very hard and very often into that crystal ball of yours, while having some heartfelt but calm and pacifist moral objections to "transgressions" of TPTB. The rest is all figments of my imagination. That's so nice to know! Please accept my apologies and do carry on.
LOL! Seriously?
You find that threatening?! How ever do you deal with things like historical accounts of the American Revolution. Guess what, Americans shot and killed the British because they perceived themselves as being treated unjustly. Oh, and guess what the Brits shot back because they liked being in power...
From an English teacher's blog...
http://eaglesblogging.blogspot.com/2008/10/white-house-fear-of-facts.html
I simply see the pattern of your posts and draw the obvious conclusions. I'm not at all surprised you deny them in this way.
To be clear, your conclusions and what actually constitutes a clear threat (a rather serious accusation by the way)are two very different things. Saying you are not surprised at my denial just compounds your accusatorial tone. I have never threatened anyone in my life and to suggest otherwise goes beyond the pale. That transcends what is commonly described as an ad hominem and enters the realm of false accusation and slander. I strongly urge you to very carefully consider what you say and how you say it when you directly assign intent to a specific individual, namely me. It's one thing to accuse TPTB or OG, and Thag or say things like Bankers and elites will pay the piper and something very different to make direct accusations. To say the least I'm not amused.
I have certainly attacked your views and ideas and consider them wrong, unfounded and diametrically opposed to my own. I have never attacked or threatened you or anyone else! False accusation is a criminal offense BTW.
For your enjoyment I give you a recent letter from the legal department at Wikepedia in response to an accusation from the FBI, it may seem a bit off topic but it serves to underscore that when you make a accusation you need to be on firmer ground than what your imagination conjures up. Furthermore you cannot apply your own interpretation to the law even if you are the FBI...
No one is allowed to just make sh!t up.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/us/20100803-wiki-LetterToLarso...
Thinly veiled (never "clear" from you) legal threats added to the rest of them doesn't really improve your case...
LEGAL THREATS?!! What? Did my attorney already send you a cease and desist letter without my express approval? Have you been summoned to court on an arrest warrant for false accusation?
Are you completely incapable of distinguishing what you think is a threat from an actual real threat?
I simply told you that your behavior and comments were inappropriate and were offensive to me personally. Heck I didn't even go so far as to flag your comment or complain to the moderators of TOD. I'm posting comments on a public site viewable by anyone. Thinly veiled legal threat my arse!
Are you suffering from paranoia? Go get some help. Oh, and while you're at it tell me if you feel threatened by this guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLT66yJBYbA&feature=player_embedded#!
I yanked your chain a bit with that last comment.
I think you deserved it, btw. First you make fun of me for being so "frightened" when I called your rethoric and views "disturbing". In the next you LOL-ed and compared your persistent graphic visions of violence with historical accounts. (I feel like making an FMagyar digest with your 100 best expectations of violence, but I know I should use my time more wisely.) In the comment after the LOL, you are suddenly "not amused" and accuse me of accusing you of making "clear threaths". (While I'm very specific about you making veiled threaths.)
I think this has gone on too long. I have a certain picture of you from reading hundreds of your comments, and that's that. It won't change suddenly by you claiming in one comment to be a pacifist or saying you're hurt by my "accusations".
Yep two can play at the chain yanking game. And don't worry I don't believe the trauma resulting from your accusations will cause any permanent psychological scarring. Though to be on the safe side I'll consult with both my attorney and therapist to see if I should press charges or just sue you.
Hey, we've finally found something we can both agree on!.
Incorrect. Interest is most certainly paid on every dollar in existence.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/it-is-now-mathematically-impossible-to-pay-off-the-u-s-national-debt
The government does not just "print money." It must get it from the Fed and for that service the Fed is paid 6% interest after all expenses.
That's when the government wants money but that's only a small piece of the pie. Bankers create more money when they issue a private loan.
Whether it's the government or private individuals, all money comes into existence as debt and interest is due on that debt.
It's a system that ensures that the bankers make incredible sums of money simply for running the monetary system, a service that in my view should be handled by the government, no different than the military.
This is too tedious for words. You really need to read up on some basic economic theory. However, I'll take a shot at it.
1. Our money is debt. Refute this.
Okay, let's take two cavemen, Og and Thag. Og says, "Lend me your spear for a couple of days, and I'll give you two gazelles." So, Thag gives Og a spear, and Og goes off to kill gazelles. Og now owes Thag a spear and two gazelles, which is a debt, and no money is involved because it is a barter society and money hasn't been invented yet. Alternatively the Treasury could print up a billion dollars and stamp each bill, "Only for the purchase of goods and services, not legal for the payment of debts", although I don't know why they would do that. Debt and money are independent concepts.
2. Debt only has 3 possible outcomes. (A) It gets repaid. (B) It defaults. (C) It is forgiven. Rolling a debt over is simply repayment plus additional interest.
A perpetual bond is a bond with no maturity date. Perpetual bonds pay coupons forever, and the issuer does not have to redeem them. Examples of perpetual bonds are consols issued by the UK Government starting in 1751. Consols are one of the rare examples of a perpetuity: although they may be redeemed by the British government, they are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.
3. In a fixed money supply economy, even with no GDP growth, interest repayment means that someone becomes poorer, at the expense of a banker who has done no productive work.
Og gives Thag back his spear, plus the interest payment of two gazelles he promised, and drags the other five gazelles he killed back to his cave. Thag is now richer by two gazelles, Og is richer by five gazelles, and the money supply is still fixed at zero because it hasn't been invented yet.
Agreed...of what you wrote. Of everything you wrote, only the perpetual bond applies. See my comment above for how our monetary system works. No gazelles involved.
I just used gazelles as an example. Money is an abstract concept which has no physical basis except whatever you want to use as a physical basis.
A lot of money was based on gold (because it's rare and more or less indestructible), but there are other bases for money. And in fact you don't have to have any physical base for money. You just need to have a population that is willing to accept whatever you deem to be money as a medium of transaction. Gold works okay, but it has its limitations.
A classic case was the Playing Card Money used in New France.
In 1685 the boat carrying gold coins from France didn't show up until the following year. A crisis ensued. The troops were getting restless about not being paid, so the Governor of New France rounded up all the decks of playing cards in the colony, cut them in quarters, put a monetary value on them, signed them, and issued them to the troops as pay. The bits of playing cards circulated through the colony, and everyone got paid on time.
When the boat showed up the next year, everybody exchanged their playing card money for gold and silver coins, and everyone was very happy. This worked extremely well, and in fact recurred almost every year when the boat failed to show up on time, which it usually did. In fact, cut up playing cards got to be more popular than gold and silver coins. This practice went on for decades. Eventually the system collapsed because of monetary inflation because they issued too much paper money, which should have been a warning, but governments since then still have a tendency to print too much money.
You are using the US Federal Reserve System as the basis for your discussion, but it is unique to the US and only exists because of US resistance to having a government-owned central bank. Most countries have central banks responsible for issuing their money, and in fact, before central banks existed, private banks could print their own money. The central banks control the money supply because having private banks print money led to problems in controlling it. Usually the problem was the banks going bankrupt, at which point their money became worthless.
/sigh
A deposit with a bank is a liability to the bank because it has to potentially be repaid to the depositor. A loan from the bank is an asset to the bank because the loan has to be repaid to the bank. Money issued as a loan (credit) is debt to someone else.
So tell me what happens when a bank issues its own money? It's a liability (a debt) to that bank that the bank must make good upon. In the past, when depositors became afraid of a bank's notes, they would exchange them for gold or silver, and thus the bank had to make good on its debt to the depositor. In pure fiat systems there is nothing at the bank to exchange for the cash so people take cash and spend it on goods and services if they fear for the stability of a bank. Yet if the bank issues even more notes (which are obligations on the bank!) the notes in circulation are worth less and less. Zimbabwe! Weimar Germany! And yes, central banks are no different from private banks in this regard except in scale.
A bank note, a piece of currency, is an obligation on that bank to pay. The trustworthiness of that bank is what ensures that all the bank notes aren't cashed in at the same time, otherwise that creates the classic run on the bank.
But the currency was and remains an obligation, a DEBT, of that bank.
Money in modern society IS debt.
Ref: Money as Debt
P.S. Money is a commodity just like any other commodity, NOT an abstract concept. How else do you explain the FOREX markets where money is traded daily based upon the perceived value of same?
lets rewrite your scenario to reflect how far we have come since the barter economy
in our updated scenario Og borrows a promise of a spear from our banker Thag. Og then agrees to give back that promise of a spear plus the promise of 2 gazelles
He goes out buys the spear with the promise borrowed from Thag from zog ..note Thag never had a spear. Zog made the spear but Thag lent it out and charged interest on it!
Og kills 7 gazelles then sells 7 gazelles to zog and friends for the promise of 7 gazelles and a promise of a spear and gives thag(banker) the promise of the spear and the promise of 2 gazelles keeping the promise of 5 gazelles as profit
Og now has the technology for unsustainable hunting practices. Ugabuga the economist is too stupid and greedy to connect the dots to understand that without a sustainable population of gazelles the promise of spears is moot and will never be repaid.
Og finally gets it and ends up clubbing Thag over the head with a thick stick and uses Thag's remains as fertilizer in his newly planted vegetable patch... 10,000 years later we are here and have apparently learned nothing...
Actually, Og couldn't kill enough gazelle with Thag's spear to wipe out the gazelle population - mainly because the gazelle learned to run for it when they saw anybody with a spear. It only when Norman came along with the automatic rifle and night vision goggles that they were in trouble.
But this is really off-topic. We were discussing monetary theory here, or at least monetary theory in the absence of money.
When you get to the point where Og borrows the promise of a spear from Thag, rather than the spear itself, and promises to pay back the promise of two gazelles, rather than the gazelles themselves, I think we're getting into futures and derivatives, which is waaay past what most people here are going to be able to cope with.
I was just trying to point out that the money = debt equation is not valid. Money is not debt. They are two different concepts.
Beyond that we're into economics 201 and the discussion gets too advanced for most people. Actually, economics 101 is too advanced for most people. The average person just doesn't learn enough economics to understand it. None at all, in most cases.
In the example I give assume the following.. the promise to pay a spear is really a substitute for the promise to pay a "note" of a spears value... $X amount... not derivatives.. we are talking about plain old ordinary money here
the reason why money is created from debt this way is that it is a powerful and flexible tool to enhance commerce, especially in a world that is unaware of resource constraints because it has not encountered any of note or hasn't been aware of those it has.
Og knows how to hunt but has no item to trade (or promises of items) with zog for the spear. zog is a useless hunter and cant wait on the promise of the gazelles because he is waiting for dinner and Og may take weeks/months/years to return on the promise of gazelles
if Thag the banker invents the promise (money) that everyone is willing to use a means of exchange everyone appears to win because Zog can use Thag's promise to buy some gazelles straight away from someone else (Nud) even though Og hasn't killed any yet and Nud got his spear somewhere/time else
which is why all this banking money thing kicked off big time in the 17th-18th cents when global trade demanded money upfront for the expansion of commerce..
ships and goods etc etc
the buyers and sellers in a geographically balkainised situation need money rather than barter to lubricate trade.. if they have to wait for goods in kind or non fiat money (commodity money ie gold and such) the process becomes very difficult.
the wealth from "the specific" exchange has not been created when thag/bankers lends the money/promises that is split in time between the construction of the spear and the killing of the gazelles
EDIT add on: some will argue this flexibility unleashes human potential because the current needs for day to day expenses and consumption can be borrowed from the future allowing Og to produce all those dead gazelles even though he never had the promises to buy a spear or anything to barter for one
Such a requirement is unnecessary.
I suggest you look up the rate at which corporations are taxed within the continental US. Then I suggest that you look at the tax rate applied to wholly owned subsidiaries of those same corporations when the subsidiary is off shore.
If you look up those two numbers, you will have all the data points you need to prove why jobs are leaving the US. And the solution is simple - reverse those two numbers. Taxes against corporations doing work offshore but expecting to sell the product or service in the US should be far higher than those within the US, not the other way around as it is today.
Reverse tax policy and the "Made In America" will follow automatically.
Greyzone, perhaps there are multiple solutions to encourage corporations to bring jobs back from offshore. How about requiring all imported goods be certified (and thoroughly audited for compliance) to be produced by suppliers (countries and corporations) meeting advanced world standards for environmental and safety matters. The corporations would then either have to force their overseas suppliers to meet these standards or move production to countries with these standards. US workers would have a more level playing field
If you force other nations to introduce costly regulation for which they are not mature yet, they will just have to lower their wages to compensate. You see, there is no free lunches - every cost is added in the end. Conversely, the lower regulatory standards of third world countries enable them to get higher wages. So what you propose doesn't do much, it just shifts the emphasis from wages to safety regulation, and that's paternalistic for a US citizen to require that of others. You might get rid of some competition, however, in which case you obviously caused much more harm than good. (Less buying power for all ordinary Americans, less growth overseas and a few happy US steel workers or whatever.)
Agreed, that would work as well but the typical objection to that is that it is an act of US intervention in the internal affairs of another nation.
The change in tax policy does not force another nation to change (even if we morally think it should) and simply levies taxes as appropriate.
Perhaps we could meet in the middle and allow corporations operating in countries who labor and environmental laws were considered comparable to our own to have some form of "favored nation" status in regards to taxes? But the tax policy should still be reversed nonetheless.
Yes, we should get very motivated, serious, and industrious about building new nuclear fission power plants.
Fusion power is an interesting research project, but we should not allocate too many research dollars to that pipe dream.
There are several current reactor designs that should be safer than the legacy reactors we are currently using.
Re-allocate sufficient budget from Defense to build sufficient fission reactors to supply 60% of U.S. energy needs (including the majority of road and rail via electric-powered means) by 2030 using mass-produced, modular reactor designs. If we were smart we would devise and implement U233-Thorium breeder reactors and use innovative reactor technology to 'burn up' a significant fraction of our current 'spent' reactor fuel. The other 40% of our energy needs would come from ind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and a smaller amount of oil and natural gas and coal.
Absolutely necessary in all this is a serious energy efficiency drive, as well as simply driving/flying/vacationing/eating out etc. less per person. Shorter work weeks and job sharing will be necessary...less work for less pay...see above for spending and using less per person.
Tax policies to highly encourage two children max, one optimum, per woman, per lifetime. Strict immigration control would be an essential part of the deal.
None of the above requires inventing radical new science theory breakthroughs...certainly some concerted engineering efforts...the hardest part is getting us and our politicians to move out and stop with the 'extending and pretending'.
Edit: And I second Majorian's ideas above in spades. Globalization was a great swindle for the top 5% folks...time to put our people to work making much more of the stuff we use.
Building fission plants doesn't do that much for the employment stats, as most of the real work is done by earthmoving machinery. What it _will_ do is litter the landscape with radioactive rusting hulks in the future, which will continue to kill people for
centuriesmillennia.Please don't build fission plants. Pretty please?
they don't just let old reactors sit there. They tear them down and decommission them.
please built hybrid fission and fusion reactors. fusion to bred the u233 from the thorium fuel.
Fusion? You mean that stuff the world has been dumping billions of dollars into for decades and still can't achieve break-even?
"Cold Fusion is all Hocum." said the Hot Fusion establishment.
Now why would they say that?
Please consider getting this book
Go on, I won't tell anybody.
It will be a secret between you and me.
Sorry, I don't buy it.
If CF were the real deal then, given the relatively modest resources required to conduct the research, there is no way that it could be suppressed.
And I won't tell if you visit:
http://www.lenr-canr.org/
And get your t-shirt 'cold fusion now' from:
http://www.coldfusionnow.org/
And if you write your congress-kritter and ask for the USPTO to change its 'tude "The USPTO has a long history of disdain toward cold fusion, and routinely rejects patents solely on the premise that cold fusion is a form of "perpetual motion," and thus impossible." no one will have to know....
From coldfsionnow
Could this be even half true?
The other site, lenr was highly scientific with graphs correlating excess heat with H4 production which shows it is the real deal.
Arthur do you have any idea how much energy even 1 Megawatt is?
Name: Palladium Symbol: Pd
Type: Transition Metal Atomic weight: 106.4
Density @ 293 K: 12.02 g/cm3 Atomic volume: 8.9 cm3/mol
You're going to tell me with a straight face that you believe people are producing tens of Megawatts from 0.3 grams of palladium?!
Beam me up, Scotty!
Now you need to understand the scam properly.
Palladium is only the catalyst for the "cold fusion" reaction. It is not consumed in the process.
On the gripping hand, I'll bet that none of these labs are selling power back to their local utilities.
Extraordinary claims, in this case, only really need a very ordinary proof.
Eerm.. I was riding on my bicycle to get some parts made up for my yacht mast when I had that very thought.
Too late to correct my embarrassing post.
My bull shit detector failed to go off.
I shall have it checked out.
I think it is set too high.
It would have been nice though.
I am guilty of looking too hard for a way out of this trap.
It is a regression to bargaining.
Here is hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
Could this be even half true?
It's why I suggest just going there for the T-shirt.
I'm guessing there are leads to follow there - but the over-the-top claims need to be sifted out.
They tear them down and decommission them.
Lovely stories here about fission plants.
http://old.disinfo.com/archive/pages/article/id2165/pg1/index.html
Well, we need to choose our courses of action.
Coal-fired power plants come with many environmental downsides. Americans get way more exposure to heavy metals, including radionuclides, from coal mining and burning. I grew up in PA Appalachia, and I have seen plenty of streams colored with minerals discharging from abandoned deep shaft coal mines. Then there is mountaintop removal mining. Leachate dams breaking. Acid rain. Mercury in our food chain. After saying all this, I realize that we will need coal-fired electric generation for quite some time.
However, I think that we can build and operate fission rector power plants safely. As for jobs, numerous highly skilled engineers would be needed to design these reactors, along with many highly skilled craftsmen to build and maintain them, as well as decommission and dispose/recycle them. Jobs for inspectors, evaluators, regulators, and plenty of jobs for security personnel.
AT some point we have to accept some risk. We have had people here lament that solar PV panels covering an area of 200 square kilometers (to provide U.S. electricity needs...see Campfire tonight)would be some kind of environmental horror. I call shenanigans on all that...that amount of area is trivial...and the desert life such as creosote bushes, Russian sage,other plants, road runners and other birds, desert hares, insects, etc, will likely be just fine in the heavy partial shade of these non-pollution-emitting PV panels (yes, I know that the manufacture and transportation and other life-cycle activities will involve resource use and waste streams...got it...everything we humans do involves that).
Wind turbines will kill some birds, cause sun flicker, throw some ice, emit sound sounds, and some people will not like looking at them. Everything has its issues...people have to make their choices or live in a cave...even then, their wood fires will denude the land in relatively short order, given our population, even with some die-off.
When it comes down to it, I see solar PV as having fewer issues than the rest: No flicker, no noise, no bird and bat kill, no ice throws, no towers sticking up hundreds of feet, no moving parts, no emissions, and little maintenance, with useful lifespans perhaps greater than 30 years.
Yes, the panels will have to be cleaned periodically. Yes, many panels will be in desert areas where water is scarce. Yes, cisterns can collect and store the occasional rain water, and very efficient water squeegee spray and water recovery systems could be devised and used.
Yes, the electricity is only generated during the day...people, go to bed earlier and get some good nights sleep...turn off/remover 80% of the street lights and lighted bill boards and garishly lighted store signs. With the exception of hospitals and power plants and some other processes, end second and third tricks at factories and businesses....go to sleep and wake with the sun. There have been places in the World where there are people with modern conveniences where the power goes off at midnight and comes back on at 0500.
Do not take my advocacy for PV as a 'total solution': PV, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear fission, NG, coal, oil, etc...and efficiency and reducing our lifestyles...we will need the system solution...there is not one magic bullet.
Our lives, and most likely our descendants' lives, will be different...but different does not have to mean stone-age. Risks and benefits will have to be weighed, and choices made...but we do not have the luxury of taking too much time to do it.
Nuke work pays well. It is very clean work and not overly strenuous. Good benefits. Many, many jobs out there that are much harder on the workers re health impact, re self respect, re the unending drudgery that is the lot of many in the work force (smile while you ask every customer if they want to supersize it - & don't forget to clean the fryolater at shift end,by the way we need you for an hour and a half on Sunday (don't worry, you'll clear $12.00 for coming in, can't expect to own your weekends if you want a job).
By the way, everything in your post is inaccurate - building nukes has a major impact where it occurs within the building trades - laborers are assigned to each piece of equipment along with the equipment operator. Oilers lube the heavy equipment. An on site heavy equipment mechanic sets up shop. Many iron workers come in. Many highly paid pipefitters and boilermakers come in. Well paid inspectors of many varieties are present in abundance. Concrete workers are abundant. Staging crews and carpenters come in. I'm just scratching the surface. The same tradesmen are needed for decommissioning work. The civilian plants have already paid for decommissioning - no radioactive rusting hulks that kill for millennia - there's a serious disconnect here. We have a small amount of spent rods in dry cask storage - essentially fuel for the future. Dangerous for a few hundred years however I am sure it will be used much sooner than that. I'll accept dry casks in my back yard - no problem. I'd feel a lot more comfortable with them than say a coal power plant, a copper or aluminum smelter, a paper mill, a trash incinerater, an oil refinery, a pesticide plant, a paint factory, etc.
You need to understand that nuclear power in the medium and long run is a very important, necessary part of the answer to the energy problem. If society hasn't sufficient surplus energy you can be sure that the common working person will get the short end of the stick, as will such niceties as control of climate change etc.
Those funds could disappear in an eye blink. That sort of thing happens all the time as economies collapse. Pensions are more vulnerable, to be sure, but don't be surprised in 2030 when the news reports that the money supposedly allocated for decommissioning was "borrowed" to pay for something else back in 2015.
I have zero faith that the money allocated (or even the current currency) will make it all the way to the new, extended decommissioning dates, now regularly being extended to 2030 and beyond. It might but it's far from certain it will.
My guess is that we if we don't decommission within this decade, most plants will, in fact, turn into rusting hulks. With any luck we'll at least deal with the most radioactive components if not the whole plant.
don't be surprised in 2030 when the news reports that the money supposedly allocated for decommissioning was "borrowed" to pay for something else back in 2015.
Good point - however if society collapses to that extent however there are many problems that will be orders of magnitude worse - ability to enforce environmental regs will under this scenario be absent - and the carbon will continue to burn.
I think that civilian nuclear power will help prevent a permanent collapse - stable, reliable baseload, essentially unlimited fuel supply based on technology that has been used, high energy gain. If there is a partial collapse/contraction it will be far worse where there is not sufficient or reliable electric power for rail, industry, transportation. A lot to consider.
My guess is building fission plants will do a lot for employment stats. To start with if you compare the number of workers required to just run a fission plant versus a coal or natural gas plant you will find a fission plant requires more manhours per megawatt output. If the fission plant displaces any amount of imported energy then you are replacing exporting money by employing local labor.
At some point the rusting radioactive hunks have to be decommissioned and it is a very labor intensive process. Currently in the US most lower level radioactive scrap is buried in the desert in marine containers but in Canada every effort is made to recycle as much as possible which requires more manual labor.
Also unlike coal and natural gas plants that vent the results of energy production into the environment fission plants contain most of their products and store the used fuel on site. Most of the energy remains in the used fuel and will eventually be reprocessed requiring more manual labor.
As it stands right now, fission plants are not being built because they are more expensive than coal or gas. The extra expense comes from the labor intense requirements from design, licencing, construction, operation and final decommissioning.
Energy problem can be solved by shifting all energy production from fossil fuels to fission and solve the residual problem by throwing off all the remains of fuel to moon. It may cost like $1,000,000 per kg even if done by very inefficient nasa but then there is a hell lots of energy in 1 kg of uranium, perhaps as much as 1,000 tons of coal. It means $1 per kg coal. Since 1 kg of coal has 20 MJ energy and 1 kg petrol has 34 MJ energy so its like 160 x 1.7 = 272 kg coal per barrel of oil which means $272 per barrel of oil. Since each barrel of oil produce on average $640 in GDP of world so its still a viable solution.
Please don't put it on the moon. We might need it here in future as nuclear technology changes.
If you put it on the moon, I shall insist you retrieve it.
And while you are there would you mind bringing back lots of that nice deuterium that is in the top of the regolith?
Above I gave the figure $1,000,000 for 1 kg used fuel dumping to moon because I know that nasa costs $100,000 to take 1 kg stuff to space. Once out of earth's gravity hole it should be very cheap to travel the rest of the distance to moon, lets say $100,000 there given the distance of 400,000 km. Once in the orbit of moon it may take $50,000 to go down to throw it at a proper place on moon, proper because you certainly not want to contaminate all of the moon with radiations, we should not rob future generations plans to build colonies on moon no matter how hard it sounds to us. Thats like a quarter million dollars even for nasa. I inflated it wildly four times to $1,000,000 to stop all unfavorable comments and any overlooks i have made. At any rate, even $250,000 is so high a number for one kg material that all costs of mining that, refining that and using that in a reactor is less than 1 : 1000 so we can safely ignore that.
A more technical and satisfying method is to make the nuclear reactor on moon, mine uranium from moon and run the reactor on moon, the electricity generated can be stored in some kind of capsules, then brought back to earth. Admittedly that would infact be a higher cost per unit energy because to contain energy released by the most inefficient nuclear reactor, the one with just 1% efficiency, for every 1 kg uranium we need may be 100 kg of battery weight, the battery that contains that energy.
We seriously have to work on energy storage methods, a proper battery, something better than the current technology in which batteries dies after 180 charge-recharge cycles. Infact, a scientist built something better last year I guess using an oxide of phosphorus that can lasts several thousand charge/re-charge cycles but the problem there is volume. That battery stores electricity in a liquid and need high volume and mass of liquid per unit storage of electricity. That makes it totally unsuitable for our moon fusion and also for all vehicles running on electricity.
The point is, we humans have still a long way to go. Its in our power even now to use the rest of the planets of solar system, if not for living than for industrial bases, such bases can run on fission energy using uranium mined from those planets and also using several materials found on those planets and sending home only the finished goods.
One solution to take things to space more efficiently is to use some crude, v2 rocket type technology to just throw things away in the space and not to a particular point. Once in space, a space center already there can go pick up those things more efficiently I guess. Using this scheme, the space center itself can grow in size.
To use space effectively, at this stage of human development and technology, we should better rely on automatic machines than humans and control those machines by AI or more cheaply by signals from earth.
I have always wondered why we couldn't get rid of nuclear waste, and old bombs too, by incinerating them in the sun. I would think the sun wouldn't even notice the stuff since it's essentially an enormous fusion reactor.
Also, I think the only way sustained fusion reactions work in a steady, stable and predictable manner is at star-scale, that's why all those billions of dollars spent on fusion have resulted in zip. We already have a fusion reactor. It's name is Sol.
Escaping the gravity well of the Earth requires a lot of energy. Also, you risk the occasional rocket explosion. It's much, much easier to just bury the stuff moderately well.
Hasn't anyone here considered that, whatever else may come to pass, death is just around the corner for everyone of us. That is it. Not looking will not make it go away.
We will not live forever and be served by robots.
Lots of us will lose our jobs, lots of our lives will descend into hunger and misery and violence. People will find ways to keep themselves and their children fed.
But the four horsemen are on the horizon, and we will not magick ourselves out of this one.
I cannot stand people who incontinently spout rosy predictions and bullish prognostications.
Excepting some happy few, the last 5000 years were mostly misery for us, and I expect that trend to continue.
lukitas
shoulders back and balls front : don't lose your dignity in the face of death.
I've read this from the top down and I think that most of the posters here don't work for a living or run a business.
They are academics.
Prove me wrong.
New word I have learned. BP caused funemployment. I get a paltry BP check. Not enough to live on. I want to be an academic. I am going to take the test to try and be an academic. What is your opinion on someone like me? No job or prospect for a job without moving and then where and what job? Do you know of a job? I have a BA, AA, AS, BS, and 25 years experience. No real skeletons, at least no one left alive;) Nobody is hiring middle age and senior men anymore. The unemployment numbers from that demo are a lie because the 'retire' most of the group.
TinFoil
I can write code and do video. I can write scripts and manuals. What do you need?
You were directing your post at me?
You seem angry TFHG.
Sure, I was trying to con a job out of you. NP not an academic, but I am trying to be one. Do you really have a better idea. Build windmills or brew moonshine and fuel? I am all ears.
As for the anger, send some head shrinkers or buy me a case of ammo and let me go to the range. The booze just ain't cutting it no more;)
TFHG, no bad vibe intended.
My Quack was about this entire thread and no one with a business made a peep.
We are feeling it here, just the entire economy is in the tank.
Just between you me and the lamp post, my parents said college would be a waste of time for me.
I have an honorary degree in Ocean Engineering from Columbia when I worked for Palisades Geophysical back in the '70.
I have slept since then.
Know who Frank Watlington was. I worked for the guy.
No, many of us are employed, zoose. And some of us run a business. Your response is business as usual. Business as usual currently appears to have an extremely high probability of killing lots of people prematurely. Perhaps you need to learn to think outside the box. Many human civilizations throughout history have been structured differently than our own. To assume that there can be no other structure than the one in which we are raised, when there is clear data to the contrary, is pretty short sighted.
TFHG, See my post above. I've got work at excellent pay for you.
Sorry to disappoint Zoose in this matter. I often wonder why people can't solve this very common problem.
Here's a simple problem for anyone to try; where do I find work ?
Hint; what needs doing in your neighborhood? Don't focus, step back a bit and view your talents. Who needs them ? Solving problems is a talent.
Dave
Lawyer to sue BP? Shrink? Hitman? I emailed you.
I hope your email arrives here in Thailand by tomorrow. I'll be waiting. Oh, one of your jobs is going to be at a nearby Marina.
TinFoilHayGuy-
There is a danger in the school thing. I did the school thing. Doctorate. In a good field, health care related. I would be pulling down big bucks now...
But I got sick. With $100,000 in student loans.
You can't go bankrupt on student loans.
There is no disability discharge on student loans.
Be careful. Be sure, mighty sure, that there is a job on the other end of your student loans. Good luck, hang in there.
I have a grown son, 22. Like most young folk he was eager to get out on his own. Sharing a house with three other guys, and still barely making rent between the four of them. First one out of work, then another. Then get another job, part time...then get laid off...First they had to shut off the cable; then the phone; then the power.
He managed to get on with the census, but that's over next month.
He's coming home next month. All of them are headed back to their parents. I am not planning for him ever to leave again. I haven't told him that. He still thinks he will be getting the American Dream. The young folk, they don't want to know the Dream is over.
The Dream has been over for quite some time, actually. My grandparents (all born around 1910-1915) did better than their parents, by far, and without too hard a struggle either, had serene and dignified retirements with paid off homes. My parents (born about 1935) did as well as my grandparents at times, but not consistently, and only with a fair amount of struggle and working harder, had worrisome and marginal-income retirements with still-mortgaged homes. My siblings and I (spread out from 1950 to 1964) have managed to reach a level close to our parents, but only with much hardship and heavy debt. My older siblings still expect to retire, but I (the youngest) am quite doubtful about the state of the world by then. As the last of the Boomers, my "expected" date was 2032. Riiiggghhht...
I always pay as I go to school. I can put all my assets into family trust. In fact I have already started. I have completely divested. If I make a 1400 on the GRE, I am in like Flynn for no money down and a tiny stipend. 500 a month to me is more than I need. The stipend is over 3 times that.
Edit: In Shangri-La they don't pay back school loans. Screw 'em. Always make sure you owe Uncle Sam April 15 and by the time you get your SS they will have done away with student loan paybacks in retirement. I would not pay another dime to the Shangri-La education mafia.
American dream, have a car, have a job and have a house at suburbs of a city, is more like a dream of a slave than dream of a free person. The job part in it makes it a dream of a slave. In the rest of the world the dream is to have one's own business, to have more freedom and higher income. House in suburbs is ofcourse a dream to kill ecology, you should either live in a city or in a village, not in a hybrid of them, if you do then instead of getting the best of both world you get the worst of both worlds. You would have large traveling to work, higher energy bills for the larger house and long traveling and more shortage of free time due to long traveling every day even on holidays to get groceries or to go to a fun place. You never get enough land in a suburban house to grow enough crops sustainably to support your family, note that it takes atleast one acre to support a person and very few houses have 5 acres lawns or jungles or gardens inside them or around for each house.
In many respects I agree, Wisdom. We have a name for it, it's called "wage-slave".
Traditional slaves got shelter, food, some clothing, and usually no health care or education.
Wage slaves get paid just enough to get shelter, food, some clothing, and usually no health care or higher education.
The two systems are functionally the same.
The controllers of the system convinced the slaves that if they had their "own" house, (which is never really true, because if the property tax is not paid the government seizes the property, therefore it is not truly yours, it's the governments)that they were not really slaves. So most people are desperate to have their house, because that is how you prove to yourself and to the world that you are "free".
I think your situation is a growing one.
Mine is much the same. I've watched this unfold since the slow down in the 80s in the oilfield. My Dad went couldn't find diving work, and Mom ended up working at a quick stop to keep the power on. They moved down in houses after a brain tumor bill, a flood, and then a total loss from Katrina.
We have had a steady income, but real wages haven't kept up with living costs. Three of my four kids are unemployed and the other marginally employed. Two have degrees, one is in a tech program at the community college.
We have 27 acres paid for, a free-flowing well, cars paid off. I know these kids don't want to hear it, but they may have to face the fact that in the short term feeding themselves and earning some cash here may be their only choice.
Yet this is what you say about yourself...
Emphasis mine.
BTW I'm not an academic and run a business because at 57 after being laid off, I found out not many people were hiring so I had no choice but to hire myself. To be clear, I also know a few academics who work pretty damned hard.
May I suggest you acquaint yourself with some of the old timers here before you make blanket statements.
Comments noted and I didn't attack anyone.
Hey I'm 62 and doing fine.
FMagyar:
No.
Read my post about my timber business.
Since you hired yourself, I hope you are doing well.
I gave it a try and hired me, but I was a lazy wanker, a layabout and a lollygagger so I had to fire myself. I did at least give me a good reference and a layoff notice to collect the pogie. But I won't be hiring ME again - seems like you just can't get good help. It wasn't all bad - I was a bastard to work for.
I am 66 years old and my formal education ended at High School.
I have done manual labor jobs, photojournalism, but my best work was with training horses.
Unfortunately I could not earn a living doing what I did best.
By age 32 I became Journeyman Union Mechanic working on 18 wheelers and ending my career as a Nationally Certified, California Licensed, and ‘factory trained’ mechanic for Mercedes Benz.
I am now retired with a Union Pension which is now listed as a “Red Zone” pension fund.
I was self employed, in the UK, until the Labour Party (the pro-workers one) tacked legislation, that made it harder to carry on with what I was doing, onto the back of unrelated legislation to get it passed into law without debate. Then the decided that the self employed were not paying nearly enough tax and more things besides. I got fed up spending hours on paperwork and packed it all in and moved. Have been doing assorted bits of work here since and plan to do more. Now show your cards.
NAOM
Your story sounds similar to mine. I got so pissed off with the stupidity and arrogance of Labour I emigrated. Now have a much higher standard of living in Germany, am much happier and now actively considering the requirements to become a German citizen.
I might be tempted back for family reasons (I have elderly parents still in UK) or if Cameron turns into a second Thatcher but right now I am unlikely to ever return, and would advise my kids against choosing UK. The next decade in UK will be tough and jobs I think are going to be hard to come by. A great many of the middle class have made or are planning to make the move, I know my cohort of good mates are now scattered permanently in France, the U.S., Oz, New Zealand, Dubai, and South Africa. Some moved their businesses with them. A massive loss of jobs and tax, but some days it seemed Labour would rather see the Taliban take over London than a UK business succeed.
Thatcher was at the root of many of the UK's problems today and Labour basically followed in her footsteps (although I did vote for her). That's not to say I forgive or have any sympathy for Labour or Brown/Blair for what they did (I never voted for them either). I despise all politicians of whatever stripe as they're all dangerous at best.
Like you, I sold up (business everything) and left the UK. The Middle Class in the UK is going to be wiped out and the remnants of the fallen British Empire has still some way to fall (people forget Britain is still in the tale end of imperial collapse). I doubt we will see the end of the UK's imperial collapse until the Union is dissolved and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland go their own way. Then the final tragedy of a diminished and disunited England, over populated, massively in overshoot in regard to its natural resources, penniless and in debt, powerless internationally and in the midst of chaotic social upheaval.
You did the right thing to leave.
Yes, the creeping Balkanization of the UK seems to only end in one place,the breakup of the union. It seems a silly move for the Scots and Welsh to forgo their English subsidy, but by pandering to the Nationalists with the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly the Union has been fatally weakened. It will take a generation or two more to die, but the writing is on the wall.
Insane government policies exist such as requiring all official documentation in Wales to be bilingual, when every native Welsh speaker is also fluent in English and only speaks Welsh at home or for privacy in front of the tourists. Tacking Welsh language requirements onto as many job descriptions as possible despite the lack of real need is another good way to Balkanize the population. To get a public sector job in Wales you need to be Welsh. It is really a divisive and discriminatory policy, yet no one seems to care! It adds to the cost of doing business for no benefit.
Junk like that is why I left. Watching a new Irish-type problem develop in your homeland is not fun.
For the loot british empire did in three quarters of world that came under their rule some duration in time in last 500 years, any bad thing happening to uk people now is very little and actually negligible in the grand picture. Naturally uk is a poor place, bad climate, bad agriculture and should be a weak, begging country asking others to come rule it, if you minus its fossil fuels and industralization. On the contrary, my part of world, the great south asia is a natural place for civilization, culture, arts, empire, wealth and power. The british empire and before that its privately owned company looted the great india for centuries, poisoning it with moral cancers like lieing, bribery, unloyalty, stabbing in back, materialism, kill your neighbour attitude on which the british empire was built at first place.
Uk still has a long way to fall. People of the former colonies of uk can never forget the looting and reserve the right to take revenge.
If that sounds too harsh, let me give some examples of british imperialism:
1) It captured ireland in 19th century, ripped it off of its natural resources, first its forests, then coal and finally its farm. British owned farms were producing cream, cheese and butter which are very inefficient products for the people of london while poor irish people can't even afford bread as majority of lands were not growing anything for poor people.
2) Uk never returned koh-i-noor, the most expensive gem, the gem of the crown of mughal emperor of south asia to south asia. Uk never returned takht e taoos either.
3) Uk gave birth to israel and all the killings and crisis related to that. This thing has a history of like 90 years starting just after the first world war.
4) On per capita basis taking into account entire history, uk polluted world most than even americans since uk got industralized first. Next time you get an off-season flood, snow, heat wave or any acidic rain you know who to blame most.
The list goes on and on.
Wisdom (? ) You have a perverse view of the history of the British empire. Many of the local rulers and their subjects actively sought out to come under the protection of the British (especially in India). Ireland had been British since well before the 19th century (I have part Irish ancestry, both Catholic and Protestant). And Israel (which has as many Palestinian and other Arab Jews as European Jews) was created (with British opposition more than support) by Jews in response to the Muslim/Nazi pact of 1942 to exterminate Jews in Mandate Palestine (go look up the history of the grand mufti pig of Jerusalem and his close friendship of Hitler).
Neal, thanks for helping me find a zeonist. You really need to educate yourself on basic world history. Get yourself some books.
Please name few such leaders whom you think have asked to go under british "protection". Be prepare for follow up questions because I don't let people get away with false historic claims. A quick look on wikipedia wouldn't be enough!!!
Israel had less than 1% jews when it was created because it was created on arab land and therefore more than 99% of its population was arabs. Its only american and british supported colony building of israel over the past 90 years that resulted in jewish population becoming equal to arab population.
A claim that british opposed making of israel is as much hilarious as a claim of existence of tooth fairy, aliens, living in a matrix. So many flaws in that claim:
1) Why british in the 1920s, being directly ruling half of the land area of world ("sun never sets on british flag") can let israel be borned on their controlled territory? Were jews more powerful than the british crown in 1920, right after the fall of ottoman empire, tzar empire and austria hungary empire as well as of germany?
2) If british were opposed to making of israel why were they among the first countries to accept it as a country and have formal diplomatic relations with it right after it came into being in 1947?
3) Why arabs put an oil embargo on uk in 1973? Do you even know that the oil embargo was put against all supporters of israel?
4) What was the british trainers, engineers, tanks, ships, missiles, even rifles were doing in all of the arab israel wars on the israeli side? Can you even count the arab israeli wars without googling it?
5) What are you trying to achieve by making this stupid, hilarious and totally nonsense claim of any nazi-muslim pact? Please feel free to elaborate on that, especially which specific muslim countries were part of the pact. To make work easier for you, i give you a hint, many muslim countries were under british occupation at that time. Confused?
6) So being a jew and a zeonist you think you can call any priest of any non-jewish religion a pig and can get away with that? Do you know that there is a God who do justice and punish the bad people?
I'm married to an Egyptian. I lived in Egypt for years. I have been to Kuwait and Jordan. My landlady was Palestinian, I stayed in Jabalya refugee camp during the lockdown of the Gaza strip in '96 with my friend and his family (he was a member of the PLO that I was helping and his brother was in the Palestinian Authority). My eldest sons name is TARIQ, who was born during the '91 Gulf war and is named after the Pakistani scholar Tariq Ali and the Iraqi deputy PM Tariq Aziz. And you think I'm Jewish? And yes the Mufti was an evil piece of sh!t.
WFPakistan. As far as the muslim/ Nazi pact goes (and it only involved individual muslims/organisations and not countries) you only have to look at my adopted home country (Egypt). Sadat worked as a German agent during the war, King Farouq had axis sympathies, Nasser provided refuge for nazis (such as the German rocket scientists that Mossad liquidated in Cairo) and the Mufti avoided prosecution for war crimes because he lived most of the post war years in Cairo until he died there in 1974. BTW during the war the mufti lived in Berlin as a guest of Hitler from 1941. Until that year Hitler had wanted to expell European Jews to the Mandate but the mufti had opposed this and wanted the Jews exterminated. The Mufti had been the instigator of a number of pogroms against Palestinian Jews (such as in 1936 in Hebron). I think I know the history of the British empire, at least 5 of my ancestors were in the Empires prisons including one who was sentenced to death by hanging.
You didn't told any names of leaders who "actively sought out to come under the protection of British (especially in India)". Remember, you have to talk with proofs, not just make claims.
Never heard of any Pakistani scholar called Tariq Ali. Can you elaborate? How can he be famous enough in palestine to have you named your son after him, yet totally a stranger in Pakistan?
So, we have go from:
to:
Please tell me this. What if you, a person living in egypt make a contract with, lets say al qaida, would it be fair to consider that egypt has made a contract with al qaida? Do you know that a phrase like "muslims made a pact with nazis" means that the greatest muslim power of the time on which all the muslims of that time trust and whom they obey, a khilafat actually, made a pact. The works of an individual is not equal to the works of even a family, yet alone a tribe or country or region or an entire religion.
So many claims with no proofs. It makes sense if some arab leaders at the time of second world war had sympathies with nazis who were killing jews, the jews who were making a huge problem for arabs, but its not equal to being an agent or working for. You are forgetting that british empire had de facto control on egypt since 1870s when it practically get out of ottoman empire. Heck, british had a base in egypt from where it fought the desert war with general romell of nazi germany in 1942. Guess you never heard about that. How come sultan of egypt had sympathies for axis powers still let his land used to fight against germans and remained in british sphere of influence before and after the war. Do you know the level of support egypt had for british? Do you know that british even took clothes of mummies to make paper during world war 2? Do you know that british had control on suez canal until 1956 even long after the fall and break up of british empire? I can give you a thousand proofs here, and well known ones, not like names of so called scholars nobody heard about.
Here is where you tell again the naked truth of your jewish religion and zeonist associations. Why would a palestinian claiming to "lockdown of the Gaza strip in '96" would call a mufti a pig who "had been the instigator of a number of pogroms against Palestinian Jews (such as in 1936 in Hebron)." See the inconsistency? You had to spend more time in your zeonist training before speaking out but your hatred for muslims and love for jews and zeonists is so high that you couldn't control yourself.
Before jews try to take any sympathy for any program against them in hebron let me clarify a few things. First, hebron is a city in israel; second, the jews had no right to be there, it was and is arab land and jews can't live there; third, jews got there by looting arab lands and setting their homes on fire and martyring them so arabs did had and still have the right to throw these bloody urine of humanity away.
Thats it? That makes you a scholar on british empire? Its funny to think that the british empire first spend time and resources to teach all its prisoners who are sentenced to death the history of british empire, then give them enough time to go teach that to their offsprings, and those offsprings teach them to their offsprings all the way to neal. Grow up neal!!!
British empire was huge, much much larger than your little world!!!
Wisdom,
How are YOUR slaves doing? Especially the female ones you said you loved to party with.
I recall that statement of yours from the dim past on TOD. You bragged about it and then later tried to deny it.
As I recall you were pro on owning slaves and it was a necessity.
I would do the search to find it but its likely even purged from the archives.
I made it clear that the word "slave" was a term used for low salary workers, i didn't meant owning people.
Brainstorming on the solutions of unemployment, i find that legality of slavery is a solution, not a solution anybody would like but still a solution.
I am sorry you are upset Wisdom.
Please accept my condolences.
I am a Rhodesian.
My point of view is that Africa would never give back the fruits of civilisation.
Bob Mugabe is quite fond of his Mercedes Benz, and his shopping trips to Europe.
And go back to wearing a skirt of monkey tails? You must be kidding.
(Yes, monkey tails on a leather thong tied around the waist, is the Shona traditional dress.)
The aBantu have done very nicely out of the Empire experience, thank you.
This superior attitude that we have is what drives the rest of the world crazy. Unfortunately, as you can see from this site we have led the rest of you up a col-de-sac with our shinning baubles.
This alone, is what we must apologise for.
Everything else is I believe, is just the rough and tumble of the world. Did the Mugals of Pakistan not rape and pillage India before the Europeans got there?
All jolly good fun, wot?
Before I leave, what sort of a job do your people think us Aryans are doing in your part of the world?
We're Back.
It's been a long time brother.
Where did the moral cancer of worship of Kali and thuggee (Hindi thag) come from? Was it those damn Highlanders?
I am glad to stay in the UK and transition within my community. There's still a lot of "good" in the average Brit and despite 30 years of neo-liberal bullshit from Westminster we have an energetic multi-ethnic cultural melting pot to be proud of. With regard to employment, especially for kids (I have 2 teenagers) my take is this:
Climate change seems to be stepping up a gear right now, weird rainfall patterns seem to be the new norm (East of England drier than ever). The economic fundamentals are terrible. Peak Oil will play out over the coming decades and credit contraction will overshadow even that in haste and impact. There is plenty of work to be done rebuilding the soil and creating sustainable systems for food, energy & housing, but the money system in place (debt-slavery) is incapable of enabling that work to be done and provide the workforce with a living wage. As that system breaks down, I hope that my market town of 5,000 or so will become organised around a community-based economy to enable the work to be done such that everyone supports each other with the resources they can supply individually, be it strong arms, big houses and land, or capital to divert from the failing global economy into the burgeoning local economy. This is the mindshift that needs to be made - most people here see the writing on the wall but there seems to be a huge philosophical obstacle to see a totally different economic system (organic, diverse & local) which will provide community resilience. The technological contribution to the human predicament is not nuclear plants and electric cars, it's plain old hard work and co-operation with the ingenuity that man has demonstrated so bountifully through the ages bought to bear on the problems at hand - appropriate technology - and the possibility of a better life, free of consumerist brainwashing, rediscovering the cultural values which made people happy before the love of money took hold.
For myself, I work for a living as a mechanic for a small shop. My wife runs a small retail store (which is failing).
I did go to college for three years towards a degree in education, but teaching jobs have gotten very few and far between so I never completed.
What, do you want a roll call? Everyone's CV? Copies of our tax returns?
I have worked every month since I was 14...I am now 45 and still hard at it. Worked my @$$ off.
I imagine that most other people here have held jobs. I recall more than a few posters over the years talking about their owing small businesses.
And one more...I may be wrong in your World, but I think that people who are teachers, professors, etc. are working for a living...my basic definition of 'working for a living' would be performing a service (including but not limited to making goods) in exchange for moo-lah.
Prove me wrong? The burden of proof is on you, the one who made the assertion.
I have a BBA in Financial Accounting and a BS in Security Management. I am currently working on a Masters in Homeland Security (I want to focus on terrorism and counterterrorism, but I recognise that the jobs are in Emergency Management).
I retired from the Army in 2006 after 26 years when it became apparent that the doctors were never going to allow me to return to full duty (even though the Army has a policy of bending over backwards to allow combat injured people to stay in, I recognised that it was time for me to leave).
I now have full time employment working for a defense contractor where I am the production manager and sucurity manager for the 'classified' side of the plant.
And just to make my life really interesting - I have a set of 6 week old faternal (boy and an girl) twins.
(And if anybody has any good advice for dealing with colic - I'm all ears.)
Breastmilk. Is momma still feeding? Try goat or rice too.
Congrats
She is pumping and storing. She cannot produce enough milk for both so we are making sure that each kid gets half the breastmilk then supplement with formula.
BTW - I am jealous. My 'toys' have become the kids resturant.
Try teenager's groceries or college meal plans.
Hi my name is Arthur.
I am an Industrial Electrician. I also am qualified to work on instruments. At the moment I am impressing everyone with my Autocad skills.
Also I am pretty handy on the end of a shovel, cleaning up iron ore spills under conveyors.
An autodidact has its advantages, as I get to choose what interests me.
Academics is what I do for fun. Like riding a bicycle, it is enjoyable if you are not paid to do it.
Now a question.
On finishing O'Neil's Book High Frontiers, I am puzzled as to how they propose to aim their accelerator at L5 on a rotating moon. After all the thing will at least a kilometer long. And where will they put the microwave receiver on a rotating Earth. I do hope I haven't been sold a pup.
I had such hopes.
When men went to the moon they left a mirror. We bounce a laser beam off of it and catch the return. This has allowed us to measure the distance from the earth to the moon to the micrometer. I also studied EME Earth-Moon-Earth communications when I was a amateur radio operator. Hope that helped.
"On finishing O'Neil's Book High Frontiers, I am puzzled as to how they propose to aim their accelerator at L5 on a rotating moon."
The moon does not rotate relative to an observer on earths surface. The gravity of the earth has caused the moons rotational period to exactly equal its orbital period - the effect being that moon is locked so that the same face/hemisphere is always towards the earth.
So the problem is reduced to a pretty simple one, aiming the transmitter/receiver to track the motion of the moon across the sky.
You must not have read the right parts.
There's a spot on the far side of the Moon, L1, which is metastable. It's also where loads shot from the Earth side of the Moon tend to wind up if they have exactly the right speed. You put a craft there with a mesh of steel cables in front of a Kevlar bag to break up and catch the incoming loads of regolith.
When you let something depart the L1 point naturally, it tends to fall into a 2:1 synchronous Earth-Moon orbit. That's the natural orbit for a space factory using lunar materials. Unfortunately, "The 2:1 Earth-Moon Synchronous Society" is an extremely clumsy name, so you'll have to forgive the 1970's for not changing the "L5 Society" label.
Thank you.
L1 now? I thought we were going to L5.
I have ordered the newer version and shall read it again.
Obviously such an oversight would not have passed first base in the review process.
Now how to get the microwaves back to Earth?
L1 is behind the moon, and the Earth must rotate beneath L5.
If these present no problem to the reviewers then I am motivated to see where I have made my error.
Zoose, I work for a living in a waste recycling plant. I touch/ see/ smell the excesses of the western lifestyle everyday.
What is your geography's (county's) recycle rate? We recycle 35% of what our citizens throw out. I am part a group trying to raise that number to 65%.
TinFoil
Prove me wrong.
What will you take as proof? Cancelled checks? Tax forms?
Hey I got a better idea. Post your ISP who provides support and see who takes the work over from ya.
Then you'd know who works for a living 1st hand.
You stop pushing the leverage points with all your might in the wrong direction, you start from a new paradigm. (Reference to Donella Meadows's Leverage Points, Places to Intervene in a system)
http://www.n55.dk/MANUALS/DISCUSSIONS/N55_TEXTS/AB_LAND.html
My thinking goes much further and I believe we also have to prosecute corporations harshly for their transgressions against the commons and their concentrations of power must be destroyed if we are to move forward to an equitable and sustainable world. Otherwise we will continue to have more disasters such as BP's recent spill in the Gulf. Same goes for Imperialist Nations that wage resource wars.
Note: I'm a realist and don't see any of this happening in my lifetime.
Get this.
Land is expensive.
They are not making any more of it.
I have 2 acres in Nevada.
It is fenced.
I think you have some socialist views.
That is the point. Land is expensive because we made a serious error in thinking we had the right to draw imaginary lines on the earth and buy and sell it.
Land should not be expensive because private ownership of it is ridiculous.
All of our ancestors were "socialist", if they weren't we would not have survived as a species.
How about some human views? Every person born on this planet has the right to feed and shelter himself with the bounty of nature. No person has more right to that or the right to deny another the opportunity to do so.
'All of our ancestors were "socialist", if they weren't we would not have survived as a species.'
Prove that to me.
I bet you can't.
Ever heard of a long house? Used by many, many tribal culture world wide. Lets go back a little further - Google the San people or Bushmen - follow a few links. Learn about their culture. Search on Amazon under "Anthropology" - often book excerpts are provided for free. Prove him wrong.
re "Socialist" - we live in a socialist country. Our gov bails out the rich. They gamble, the worker's taxes bail them out.
"Every person born on this planet has the right to feed and shelter himself with the bounty of nature. No person has more right to that or the right to deny another the opportunity to do so."
That bounty of nature ain't lookin' too good going forward. You know, three little things known as peak oil, global warming, and population overshoot, which is likely to be followed by LIFEBOAT ETHICS. I think you'll find that your utopian ideals won't last too long on the backslope of limits-to-growth.
I'm all for people taking as dignified a route through the bottleneck as possible, but competition for land and resources is unavoidable.
According to islamic rule, a person can use a piece of land if nobody is owning it or using it without even telling that to govt. Govt do not own the free land, people do, according to islam. So the spare land between cities for example that is not a property for any person is actually open to be occupied and used by anybody.
The debate between socialism and capitalism can be solved by adopting a third system called fuedalism which is actually a hybrid of the two. It has worked in past, all the major civilizations including rome and persia and empires of middle ages were fuedal. Explaining fuedalism in practise is a tough and complicated task even though its basic idea is very simple but due to its large widespread adoption over many thousands of years in different parts of world there are so many flavors of it that its hard to explain them even in a thousand pages book. Following I try to explain the very basics of fuedality, somethings common to all fuedal empires of all times and places:
Large means of production such as farms, forests were controlled by govt and weren't property of a single person or family. They were however granted to a person or family in guardianship so it was not like buerruaeucracy and so didn't have the problem of buerreaucracy. It was like a business running by an owner in sole proprietership so efficiency levels were huge. It was not like a partnership so it avoid problems of conflicting and multiple chains of commands and division of authority at high level, it was not like a corporation running by a board of directors who are more concerned with their personal benefits than benefits of share owners so didn't have problems of that.
Unlike a privately owned business the guardian had the legal obligation to take care of masses. Like a buerrueacracy it had the low levels of work required by each worker therefore a benefit for working class. Also, other than the guardian the workers themselves had very little variations in wealth. Unlike a privately owned business, the guardian had specific social duties to perform which nobody else perform, that includes the military service and judicial service. The guardian was supposed to keep in stock enough food and water to supply for the masses in case of a crop failure, war or disease.
From a management point of view too, dividing the land into fiefs is far more manageable than using a large army of buerreaucracy divided into departments to take care of whole country at once. A fief was self sufficient in almost everything, only things coming out of outside was sunlight, water, salt and federal taxes among others. It means that a fief must have a hospital, a school, a factory, a blacksmith workshop, a carpenter workshop, a masonry workshop, a large bakery to cook food for everybody, a large town hall to gather all people for addresses and protection, a large lake or well to have water for everybody etc etc. People in each fief was in most cases 300 in europe.
The sustainability was gained by resiliency which was gained by making each unit as much self sufficient as it can, therefore cutting the connections between fiefs to the minimum to the point that 99% of workers of a fief never had to leave their fief in their entire life times.
Fuedalism is very sustainable and stable. It survived the black plague of europe even though european population decreased to half or one third. It also survived a crop failure frequency of one in every three crops sown, a major outbreak of disease in working class every century and a minor one every decade after the plague. Only the industralization and resultant urbanization killed fuedalism.
Please note that, by nature, feudalism can work at very low energy levels. It also has a higher moral ground because the guardian is supposed to be a person who has worked for the benefit of country and as a reward is given the guardianship.
Ofcourse, it had its problems, inefficiencies and corruptions but looking the grand picture, its actually the only system we can rely on.
Please also note that fuedalism resulted in redeveloping of forests in europe after end of roman empire which cutted forests in large numbers and also in making two inches of top soil between 500 A.D. and 1500 A.D.
In modern times, a factory can be a fief, a small city of population like 10,000 can be a fief, a village is naturally a fief, so is a mining camp and a port city. People in a fief can happily vary between 100 and 10,000 and there can be a few layers of managment in a fief though the fewer they are they more manageable, resilient and efficient the system is.
A fief is not very different from a soviet town or village actually and such towns and villages did survived the collapse of a super power in an excellent manner actually with minimum suffering for masses.
In addition, division of land in fiefs results in a top, mature, refined top class that is needed for proper governing of an empire.
You have to be kidding.Feudalism sucks unless you are the lord of the manor (great to plug the peasant girls first on their wedding day). Pakistan is a modern day example of a failing state with a feudal master class controlling the lives (and votes) of the peasants. You sound like somebody with a wet dream for a return of a mughal empire to rule the subcontinent.
Well in the Ancient Near East from the Code of Hummarabi to the Hebrew Scripture and other sources there is a lot of law on the private ownership of land. call it 3000 years of documentation.
Was Ghengis Khan a socialist? He had strong views about fences and cities.
Hi Fred,
Zoose has spanked you heap good: "I think you have some socialist views"
I now imagine you huddled in the corner of your commune wondering if Joseph McCarthy will get wind of your subversive inclinations.
No loyal American would ever have any socialist views - naughty, naughty Fred.
LOL!
So now I have to worry about zombies as well?
Funny! I actually had a girlfriend who was a member of the Communist Party, (still legal in the US of A last time I checked.) Was a couple of years back. Since I've never been a big fan of any "ISMS" we ended up going our separate ways.
Imagine if Zoose gets wind of the fact that I'm closer philosophically to non ideological anarchism (also legal) and no I'm not actually affiliated with any party...
My previous statement with regards "ISMS" applies to that as well.
http://www.n55.dk/MANUALS/DISCUSSIONS/N55_TEXTS/AB_ideologies.html
However, I'm not sure if logic helps with certain people...
Disclaimer: My ancestry is part Danish but Denmark isn't the only place where something is rotten.
Do you mean as in comments like "small people?"
This thread is interesting and we see human nature at it's best and worst. I know some of the answers already but adding more clues to how people view their fellow humans is a beginning to solve this problem.
How many are employed here? Self employed or employed by another? Is the company small or large? Is it a corporation or mom & pop? How do you feel about employee benefits (if you are employer or employee)? Where do you buy your food and clothing?
Feel free to add more to the list. I'm not attempting to place a right or wrong position here but it helps to see how we think and why?
I'll start with; I'm self-employed, small proprietorship (less than 1 million $ a year)I have no employees at this time. I pay employee benefits (in the past), I purchase food, clothing and products from employers who treat their employees fairly.
I hear the roar from Americans over the BP disaster yet the apathy witnessed when they flock like sheep to the slaughter when large corporations lure them with **these low prices are to help you live better** is beyond expression.
I used to be an employed computer scientist. A PhD with thirty years of systems programming experience at all sizes of companies, from self-employment to the kernel of one of worlds largest programs.
Then my health collapsed, and now I'm just barely surviving on SS disability (I lost my savings to divorce and the housing crash.) When my COBRA subsidy goes away next month I might not be surviving at all, though perhaps I will then qualify for food stamps. Even with subsidized COBRA my medical expenses ran to $10,000 last year. I qualify for a Section 8 subsidy on the 40-year-old trailer I rent, but there is a 2-year waiting list.
I live way out in the country, with few choices of vendors within, say, 50 miles. I buy clothes (jeans & t-shirts) at the local Alco. My newest jeans are three years old, and I just last week replaced my five-year-old t-shirts. I buy most of my food from the local City Market, which buys some produce from local farmers in season. I also buy meat from a local butcher who buys cows from local ranchers. I might start keeping chickens if my landlord agrees.
Given the above, I have no patience for commenters who revile the welfare state, as I would be a dead man without it.
I know your pain, man. I was a pharmacist, before my health went. It's nearly the same story for almost anyone who's health gives way or who suffers a serious accident. There are lots of people here who like to beat up on the hurt and the sick. I guess they don't personally know anyone who is hurt or sick, or they would shut the @#$% up. These same people though, they get real upset if you suggest an alternative such as the forced quartering of the hurt and sick in their homes, since they are so dead set against the hurt and sick having homes of their own.
If you are still paying $10,000 a year out of pocket on health care, hate to say it but you still have a long way to fall. When you get down to Medicaid, food stamps, and getting stuff only at Craigslist,Goodwill and Walmart because anything else is flat out too expensive, you will have hit bottom with the rest of us.
Hang in there.
Thanks Vic, I'm hanging tight, with the help of family and friends. My health is slowly recovering, so there is hope that I can get back to supporting myself, if my industry and the economy recover enough to make that possible. In the meantime I'm looking at contributing to an open-source project to keep my skills and contacts fresh.
Greg,
a good open-source project to attach your wagon to is Drupal.org. It's in the running for top spot of the three big open-source web site frameworks (Drupal, Joomla and Wordpress). The contract work for Drupal is higher-end than both Joomla and Wordpress, too.
Plus, you can work on the Transition Drupal project with me...we need developers to make interesting modules that support relocalization:
http://groups.drupal.org/transition-towns
Contact me if you want to know more.
Interesting, I'll be in touch.
Precisely. I don't like my taxes propping up the U.S. military but I'm happy to be earning money and able to pay taxes especially so that there is a safety net for my community.
Maybe it's a Canadian thing. (Canadian living in California.)
Maybe it's a sanity thing - even Hayek thought social insurance a reasonable government service.
I was a Coloradan living in California, but returned to escape the insane cost of living there. Cut my rent in half for three times the space. I'd escape to Canada, but it's just too far north.
It is a reasonable government service, and it has been around a LONG time in various forms including the ANE (Ancient Near East). If you read the story of Ruth in the Hebrew Scripture you will see that the private ownership of land did not trump the ability of poor/foreigner/widow to be able to glean he fields. Deeper in the Levitical law was the tithe that went to the local town for the poor/foreigner/widow, etc..... Thanks for bring up Hayek.
Please consider coming to Australia, Greg.
You can stay in my house till you find your feet.
A tempting offer, especially from a stranger. Thank you! I visited Sydney once and loved it, and my brother's rock band toured Oz twice and loved it. Main problem is being so very far from the support of friends and family here. And if I'm going to go so far, there is a lovely Filipina I'm courting who wants to return to the Philippines ;->
But don't be surprised if I show up at some point.
Greg, I am ready willing and able to pay yet more taxes for people like you. You are not what most people imagine or what some of us have experienced in the welfare state which include, people in their early 20s who have never worked, and know how to game the system for psychological disorders to obtain disability, or in NY, the near 100% of all recently retired LI railroad "pensioners" who are on full physical disability yet belong to a gym and golf everyday.
I read a research paper recently on SSDI, and to what extent it's being gamed. It's a problem, but hard to tell how big a problem. And it's hard to say how many deserving you want to hurt in order to stop the game players. Personally, I'd err on the generous side. Especially, in a country that does not provide adequate education or employment for all, I'd rather the unemployed (and often unemployable) game the disability system than turn to crime. Especially when the rich and well-connected scam the system for billions and trillions it's hard to complain about the small stuff.
And social insurance does go way back. Didn't the Pharaohs tax and store grain against coming famines?
PS. You may know better, but according to Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Island_Rail_Road#Allegation_of_pension...
...
A report produced in September 2009 by the U. S. Government Accountability Office [22] disclosed that five federal agencies which investigated and audited the disability awards found no evidence of fraud or wrongdoing by either the Railroad Retirement Board or the retirees who applied for those awards
Juliet Schor offers the most cogent, constructive approach to these issues that I've run across. She's written a book entitled Plenitude, which is sitting on my bedside table, waiting to be read. She discusses the book in this talk given in Seattle. Her lecture is about an hour in length and worth every minute. http://vimeo.com/12034640 .
What to do about unemployment?
That is easy. Use the military to invade resource rich countries and ramp up the selective service.
We'll get there, but the mall recruiters are already doing very well these days without conscription.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the government has a set unemployment number that they will use to implement this sort of policy. Too many shiftless, tattooed, semi-literate men aged 18-30 that were raised on anti-depressants and murder simulator video games are dangerous to the Fatherland and especially to it's government. Why not just ship them off to fight 'terrorism'?
If we are going to invade anyone, we need to invade Mexico. Our #1 trading partner. Of course, the Mexican and American people would have to sign off on it. Stamp out the drug lords and rebels for 50 years. It would make a difference here. To heck with the US border, protect it from the Mexican side. That way you get Mexico/Latin Border protection going too. Then work on the folks that want to stay and get a workable compromise. Lets us send folks there too. If Mexico's GDP doubles, our quadruples. That is the non-natural resource part of the GDP. Even food is a good thing if it passes our regulations.
TinFoil
Two tiny problemettes with that:
1) The Mexican economy is almost entirely natural resource driven and it isn't going to double, it's going to decline;
2) Our regulations are specifically designed to only accept mega-agri-gmo-biz products and exclude anything "local".
So there's that and then there's the fact that yesterday's criminal gangs are today's mainstream political organizations. If we go cruising down main street Oaxaca with machine guns blazing we are just going to breed another generation of blood enemies.
No silly, you arm up and conquer with the corrupt, current, Mexican government. Like what happened in the 20's here, it is a cleanup of the system. Once weed becomes legal here, it would be easy. If some farmer still want to grow marijuana, he gets a bigger cut now. You eliminate the corrupt middle men and narco economy and build up the corrupt central government. Works so-so for us. You just leave one corrupt nut or group of nuts to deal with all they way to Mexico's southern border. Then they can redistribute land from the oligarchy of families than run Mexico and replace them with a corrupt central governmental strcuture. Again, easier to payoff one guy for us. If we fix Mexico, we fix ourselves.
Mexico has a rich revolutionary history, and a well developed, very literate left, especially in the south.
I was just down in Guerrero, and attended a collective child care center organizing event.
The fall of the oil mafia will only benefit these people. The drug thing is spinning out of control, but these are mainly low consciousness greed heads, more sympathetic to the right.
Whatever you want to call it you build a consensus in the regions that are anti-central government and give them a strong minority voice. Maybe VP. You cut deals so that you do not have to wipe anybody but the narcos out. Again, you build a coalition how you have too, just make sure you have one group and maybe a balance from the other side. There should be no other powerful authorities with life or death license except the state.
Not even the State.
Things need to be organized from the bottom up.
Have you spent any time in Southern Mexico?
Most are not acquainted with what is happening on the ground there.
It would surprise you.
Read the current copy of Defense News. Google it...you can read articles on-line.
The salad daze for the U.S. military are coming to an end. Secretary Gates and Ashton Carter and others have their marching orders to 'cut overhead'...first the contractor herd will be culled, and they are saying that there will be a reduction if force for GS employees. There are even hints that uniformed military ranks may contract, and that wages and benefits, if not cut, may be held static wrt inflation.
Weapons systems will be axed.
The whole government, not just the military, is going to 'give at the office' in the next couple of years.
If one thinks that the government will simply conscript young men and women and pay them peanuts and treat them like...well, conscripts, you are looking at a recipe for disaster.
I sure as heck would not put my officer uniform back on and herd a bunch of conscript cats. We have enough problem children as it is.
I don't know. I would look funny too. I did not even keep one.
I remember well the 1990's when the Federal budget was balanced on the backs of the soldiers. I remember our unit's manauver budget being 5 miles per year per tank. I remember 'passing the hat' around the unit so we could get paper for the printer.
I also remember the fact that the decision was made not to buy IBA because of budget pressures and that our troops would continue to wear the old 1980's PASGT body armor.
I also remember Bush being blamed because we did not have enough IBA when war came.
I remember all of the vehicles that literally disintegrated on us in Iraq and Afghanistan because they were an average of 15 years old. (The reason we had to replace every vehicle that wen to Iraq and Afghanistan was not combat damage - it was the fact that they were past their design life and literally began falling apart.)
How many lives will this next round of penny-pinching cost us the next time our troops have to go in harms way?
It does seem wrong. We used to say something like 'Always keep in mind that your weapon was made by the lowest bidder.' If it makes you feel better it seems the government cuts corners on well and pipeline designs and inspections too.
Don't worry - we made the discovery that most of our weapons were worn out also. In fact a way that penny-pinching came back to haunt us was the magazines for our rifles. The biggest problem we had with weapons jamming in the early days of Iraq and Afghanistan was caused by the fact that a rifle magazine is only good for about 1-2 years before it begins to wear out. And we were sending troops into combat with magazines that were so worn out that they would only feed the first ten rounds.
When we invaded grenada I was carrying an M60 machinegun that was so worn out that I had to use duct tape to hold the buttstock on the weapon. How would you like to have your children go into combat with weapons that are being held together with duct tape?
"No less than 479,367 M14 rifles were destroyed in 1993-94 alone and an unknown number were de-milled (cut with a blowtorch and welded shut) then transferred to JROTC units as non-firing drill weapons."
Read more at Suite101: Last of the Surviving M-14 Battle Rifles: The M14 Obsolete But Irreplaceable http://modern-war.suite101.com/article.cfm/last_of_the_surviving_m14_bat...
I bet they have a warehouse full of M1919's that would have done fine.
After all that money we spent (we still had colossal military budgets during the Clinton Years, bub), we still had weapons in crappy shape. Goes to show we sucked big-time at properly allocating out budget. Try to do too much, buy too many different types of weapons, spend on bloated overhead and contractor profits, and you end up with a bunch of expensive stuff that may be crap.
And this is what we get for our money by having the World's biggest military budget, even during them there Clinton years.
Trying to play the 'World Policeman' military industrial complex games is for suckers.
Complexity piled upon complexity...despite lip service, the total life cycle management costs of weapons are underestimated. Glitz over robustness. Defense contractor profits and jobs in various congressional districts uber alles.
Of course we could spend enough to have a military 10 times bigger with all the newest, fanciest, most well-maintained weaponry with the best-trained soldiers...and we would collapse as a nation from the spending in no more than a decade. But we could go out with a blaze of red, white, and blue glory!
Pound some of those swords into plowshares, brother!
How would you like to have your children go into combat with weapons that are being held together with duct tape?
One would hope that the people who think about volunteering and willfully signing up would read such stories along with stories about Lavena Johnson http://lavenajohnson.com and think REALLY carefully about signing that paper.
(The person who was determined to have committed suicide, yet had lacerations and lye in her vagina and a bullet from a M-16 in the head along with a broken nose, teeth knocked back along with bruising and teeth marks. Oh and a blood trail to the tent. Where she then committed suicide.)
If you want to play the emotional chain-jerk game of "your children go into combat" I'm rather sure others here can play that kinda crap game right back.
This is not an emotional knee-jerk issue.
Didn't you notice how I pointed out that this happened to me?
I know that people like yourself hate having it pointed out how cuts in the military budget affect real people, but I care about the people who wear the uniform.
BTW - I looked through the site you mentioned and notice that there is a lot of speculation but not a whole lot of hard facts. And in fact there are several factual errors that I caught, here is an example:
"She was the first woman soldier and the first Black woman soldier to die while serving in Iraq or Afghanistan."
In reality - Pfc Piestewa was the first female soldier to die in Iraq. And in fact - her weapon had jammed because her 20 year old rifle had a worn upper receiver and the spring in the magazine was no longer strong enough to feed ammunition into a the rifle. (Remember the comments I made about our troops dying because of worn out weapons? Here is a perfect example.)
I'll give you a hint. Some of us know enough about the military that we can spot the BS.
This is not an emotional knee-jerk issue.
Then why did you pull out 'think of your children' if you were not attempting jerking the emotional chain?
(The attentive reader will note that I did not claim "emotional knee-jerk" I claim you are attempting to jerk emotional chains)
cuts in the military budget affect real people, but I care about the people who wear the uniform
If you care - where is your public call to increase taxes to pay for all this caring you claim to have?
I see plenty of people claim they care, yet when asked to back the check their mouth is writing, these "caring souls" are no where to be found.
And in fact - her weapon had jammed because her 20 year old rifle had a worn upper receiver and the spring in the magazine was no longer strong enough to feed ammunition into a the rifle
What's next? Claims that there are no rebuilding kits? Or that the soldier who gets said weapon is not responsible in any way for the maintenance of said weapon?
I'll give you a hint.
Is this before or after you admit that the people in the Military are there because they chose to be or not?
I don't blame Bush for the equipment in inventory when he made the decision to go to war. I would be more willing to blame the Sect. of Defense. I would be willing to blame Bush at the end of eight years because he still couldn't get it right. What most people forget is the pentagon has a budget and how they choose to waste it isn't decided by the president. I remember Donald's comments run a close second to Tony Hayward's.
PS. War didn't come, Bush went looking. Ike warned about the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) and also commented on something parallel to today's discussion.."As we peer into society's future, we -- you and I, and our government must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow.
PS. No, I am not denying the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
I do not think that our troops 'had to go in harms way' for our current wars.
Your paradigm assumes that the U.S. remains the World's military policeman.
Our whole USG budget will have to contract.
Get a new paradigm, brother.
I served for 20 years.
Keep your powder dry, and pick your battles carefully.
Ever heard of blow-back?
How many lives will this next round of penny-pinching cost us the next time our troops have to go in harms way?
Perhaps they can find the missing trillons?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/01/29/eveningnews/main325985.shtml
Sigh.
I take it that you cannot understand the difference between tracking transactions and the money actually being wasted, misused or stolen?
Here are some more clues for the clueless. Rumsfield was criticizing the fact that the DOD and its component agencies do not follow a standardized set of accounting practices. Here is an example from real life. When my unit was issued IBA our older PASGT body armor was 'excess' due to obsolescence. Since the stuff was being phased out and replaced we were directed to turn it in to DRMO (the DOD has a centralized facility where excess/damaged/worn out military property is disposed of). At this time our my unit's property book was adjusted to remove 160 sets of PASGT body armor that had cost $700 each when new and had depreciated by 50% ($56,000 total remaining value). However DRMO estimated a total salvage value of $500 for the 160 sets of armor.
As a result $56,000 worth of body armor we shown as transfered to DRMO - whose books then showed a value of only $500. As a result - at the DOD level - it appeared that $45,500 of property had 'disappeared.' Was there any misconduct? No. Was anything stolen? no.
Was the problem merely that two different accounting systems were no in synch with each other? Yes.
Would hiring additional accountants and completely revamping the DOD accounting systems to makes sure this would never happen again save the taxpayer one penny? No.
Again - what you are reading makes great headlines to the nose-picker crowd but does not impress people who understand how the system works.
Again - what you are reading makes great headlines to the nose-picker crowd but does not impress people who understand how the system works.,/i>
Given your position is this:
I take it that you cannot understand the difference between tracking transactions and the money actually being wasted, misused or stolen?
Then you put up the straw man of:
As a result $56,000 worth of body armor we shown as transfered to DRMO - whose books then showed a value of only $500. As a result - at the DOD level - it appeared that $45,500 of property had 'disappeared.'
The word in '' of 'disappeared.' shows it is you who do not understand the issue.
But hey, keep shining on you crazy diamond.
Sure.
Right up until we invade Iran and annex Mexico and Canada.
You Americans and your invasions!
Stop it. You will go blind.
The invasion of Mexico is not really an invasion. It is to prop up the central government so that the locals can handle it. It would have to be paralleled with drug law reform and the both governments and peoples must support it. I would also bring Mexican soldiers here, to train and guard the border on this side. I think the more we work together the better off we are. I use the Canadian/NORAD model. As for being an invading American, what the heck are you? You never even called it Zimbabwe. 'Peace through strength.' George Washington
TinFoil
My people were sent out in 1834, after the Napoleonic war to separate the Afrikaaners and the Xhosa who had come into conflict at the Fish River.
I was born in Rhodesia.
Have you heard of the Rhodes scholarship?
It pleases me greatly that it is called Zimbabwe now.
It puts a certain distance between it and I.
Whose side did you barrack for?
Us or Mugabe?
If you are determined to colonise Mexico please do it with finesse and tact. Take lessons from the experts. The British.
You Yanks are like bulls in a china shop.
Speaking of which, I am betting that you will be colonised by the Chinese.
Don't worry, it won't hurt. They are very polite.
More polite, more caring, more friendly and more ecological due to their smaller consumption.
1. I was born in Korea. Fought for the US just like my dad, and his dad, and his dad...
2. I know all about Cecil Rhodes, and Mugabe. Ever heard of White Man's burden?
3. Korea was colonized by the Chinese and Japanese already. The US kicked them out, at least 1/2 out.
4. I do not want to colonize Mexico. I want a Scottish/English relationship with Mexico. Different, but allies. Independent, but counting on each other. Just must avoid an Irish/English relationship, which is like what we have now.
5. How stupid do you think I am to purposely anger Rhodesian SAS? I would not even mess with the Highland or the Marines, much less SAS. Didn't you evolve from Malayan forces?
6. Unless you were a cook or mechanic, you were a mercenary. In fact, probably some of the most active mercenaries of the time.
7. The African people need to govern themselves, but they also need not fear choosing native white leaders. I cannot think of one country that has consistently improved economically since white rule ended. It is a shame, who does not want to see all countries to somewhat succeed.
8. I will start worrying about China when the made in China goods stop coming here. Until then, they have to have our economy.
9. If you ever come by this way let me know so I can leave town, LOL.
Peace,
TinFoil
If you consider $110 plus $15 parachute pay per month the wages of a mercenary, you are hired. (All sorts of things were gleaned from our pay packets on payday.)
I wanted to be a career soldier.
I was honourably discharged.
The frontiers of Western civilisation were crumbling under pressure from barbarians.
My people were being killed,again.
Calling me a mercenary is a throw away line.
You should apologise.
My bad, I just understood the Rhodesians were for hire in that part of the world during that time. Not necessarily a bad thing. I assume you served very honorably. Africa in the 60's and 70's was a very tough place. If you were never deployed outside your borders, I absolutely apologize. Actually, I was young once and I could see being a private contract soldier (if that term suits you better) if I was younger. I liken it to Blackwater in Iraq. As long as they complete their mission, good job. The politics I leave to the civilians.
A mercenary is a person who takes part in an armed conflict, who is not a national or a party to the conflict. This does include freedom fighters and revolutionaries. We have a fine tradition of revolutionaries and mercenaries ourselves here. Guess I should have provided context. In the field, we never screwed with the mercs. They were just too tough and on edge. You let them folks be.
Thank you.
If you read back to my statements which started this unfortunate thread, you will find that my definition of a fine soldier is one who maximises the good and minimises the bad.
Sun Tsu could take a city with a small force and a magnificent reputation of honour. This was enough for him to not have to spill blood. His honour and good word were half his army. To me that is the epitome of a fine soldier.
This is why he is still a legend 8000 years after his death.
OK, TFHG, you are pulling our legs with this 'invade Mexico to prop it up' shtick, right?
Right?
Think about it. We fix Mexico, we fix the US. Invade is really not the word. Organize, like the Brits did to the Scots. Yes, at first it was bloody, just like the Brits and the Scots, but our 'wars' with our southern neighbor ended long ago. If we figure out to elevate Mexico and partner better instead of conflict, our world status just went up 100%. NAFTA is a joke, we gave then our labor intensive jobs and let their trucks drive all over here. The real way to protect the border is from both sides, and to allow open borders for trade and travel.
Don't worry Arthur that only happens to people who jerk off...
You could 100% shut down the US Department of Defense and it would not halt the geometric progression of debt and interest. We've passed the knee in the curve. All that would do is slow it down briefly.
What no one, neither Democrat nor Republican, wishes to discuss is that entitlement payments are not sustainable. They must end soon voluntarily or they will end not long after that involuntarily.
Grey Zone:
Scale back both..
Both.
That's the realistic and logical response, Heisenberg. I don't have great faith in politicians doing realistic and logical things.
The interest rate is nearly zero now, so where is the fearful progression?
And the dreaded entitlements are medical care and pensions for the old and disabled. Do you propose to let us die?
Yes, Greg, that's exactly what he's proposing. If he had his way, they would drag you and me out in a field somewhere and cut our throats and leave us for the crows.
More kindly, they may think that if only our evil government stopped interfering then our churches and charities would shoulder the burden. That would go with their Victorian understanding of macroeconomics. They miss that SS and Medicare are insurance for which most of us have been taxed for years. So yes, we are entitled. And we may be too old or ill to work, but many of us are still quite able to riot.
What state do you live in?
Gulf Shores, AL ground zero here.
I live in Colorado. Not yet time to riot here. How about in Alabama?
Thank you for shoving words into my mouth that I did not write. It is not appreciated. Oh, I heard you are still beating your wife. I thought you had stopped? See how that goes?
Back to reason here - first off the Fed rate is not the important number. The important number is the actual rate paid by the Treasury for various bills and bonds. That rate is not zero. The 3 year note appears to be floating around 1.1% interest. The ten year is about 2.95% lately. Those are the rates that matter because that is the debt the government issues to pay for its operations that are beyond tax receipts. Already current debt load is so high that expectations are that interest payments alone could be 10% of the budget by 2015. But more ominously, if interest rates rise back to historic averages (they are well below average now), the percent of the federal budget going to interest payments alone (those who bought the debt, not the entitlement payment recipients) could rise as high as 20% by 2015.
Now the current federal budget is about $3.8 trillion dollars in a national GDP of $14 trillion dollars. In other words, government consumes 27% of the entire US GDP. As of 2010, about 70% of that budget goes to entitlement payments. If the amount of federal budget going to interest rises to 20%, where do you get the additional dollars? Do you make your children and grandchildren into debt slaves to pay for promises that were made to our generation (and yes I am part of that generation) that were simply mathematically impossible to keep? Or do you face the fact that we were promised something that was false, and that many of us accepted that false promise, voting for the liars who made the false promise, and yet we are the ones who think we have a right to be aggrieved when the promise fails?
What about our children? Do they have to pay for our foolishness? How much? Well, to balance the federal budget would require almost doubling taxes right now and that doesn't even keep us treading water. In order to pay down the debt and get back ahead of the debt tsunami would require more than doubling federal taxes (while keeping state and local taxes where they are).
So how much pain is ok to inflict on our children and grandchildren because the majority of our generation chose to accept a lie as a valid promise? Why don't you just directly tell your kids and grandkids that they have to fork over 3 dollars in every 10 they make to support you. See how they react to that. Is that just? Is it fair? I say that no, it is not fair to them. Our generation (and our parents) were the fools. We should be the ones to pay for that mistake, not them.
You are free, however, to tell your kids that you want to double their tax load because of fool's promises that you accepted. Tell me how your kids like that if you have the guts to say it.
Sorry Grey, I merely speculated on your meaning (the word "may"), as your post was too brief to be sure. But it was a snippy speculation - if you saw my other posts on this thread I am unhappily dependent on the entitlements you want to eliminate. Here is my take...
Our government (like many others) has been running deficits, and running up debt, for hundreds of years. And we've been running Federal deficits around 20% ever since WWII. So I reject out of hand arguments that governments should not or cannot run deficits. They just can't outrun their economic growth in the long run.
With deficits up to 27% then we need to reduce spending and/or raise taxes eventually. Historically our taxes are not that high, and are not very progressive. As a Quaker, I'd shut down the Department of War as well. And I'm not up to the calculation, but we might just have to inflate away some of our debt. So I'm not yet buying your "mathematical impossibility" argument.
And yes, that still leaves 70% of the budget in entitlements. I think we can afford our modest pensions with at most minor modifications. The upslope of the boomers doesn't keep rising, it falls off as we die. It can, and probably will, be partly paid for by more immigrants entering the system. The much bigger and faster-growing part is medical care, for which we pay far more than most countries, with worse results. Get medical costs in line and I think we can make things work, assuming even moderate economic growth.
And yes, however it turns out, the polity will have to decide how much to tax themselves, and to what end. If you are right, and we prefer to see old people dying in the streets, then that may be my fate. I pray we can do better than that. Or do you think we old and ill should just commit suicide in fairness to the youngsters, in atonement for electing and believing bad politicians? Personally, I'd rather extract the necessary funds from those politicians and the plutocrats who own them.
And to tie back to the subject of this thread... if the current recession is not just the fallout from a popped bubble of speculation, but is the harbinger of falling energy supplies, and if that makes further economic growth impossible, then we are hosed. Even so, simply shutting down entitlements seems the wrong course to me, as that just leaves more and more people fending for themselves. History says they tend not to do that peacefully.
Was that the reason for HR-5741? HR-5741 is the requirement that all Americans between the ages of 18 & 42 serve 2 years compulsory military service.
Edit, typo
Don't worry. Rangel's annual political statement is about to come to an end.
What do we do about unemployment?
6 month moratorium on immigration
Build the rails with government loans
the mayor, who sits on a county transportation board, wants a loan instead of Washington handouts to get the projects built in a decade rather than 30 years. He contends it would save money in the long run, result in more construction jobs and less traffic and pollution.
If the approach works, it could set a precedent for cities and states across the country considering major rail and road improvements.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100731/ap_on_re_us/us_la_transit_expansion;...
I live 60 miles from nowhere and 6 feet from hell in the Mojave desert. It was 110 here today.
Thank God I live in Nevada and not Kalifornia.
I am 62 years old and am fighting with the SS office for my retirement income.
If I have offended anyone here I am sorry about that.
My apologies to anyone that has been dissed.
I now Digress.
ZOOSE ..."I live 60 miles from nowhere and 6 feet from hell in the Mojave desert. It was 110 here today."
Well Zoose, I have an idea for you to contemplate while your criminal government steals my money to pay your SS.
Stop Whining and move.
Heh! Zoose, I got the impression you didn't approve of socialism? Retirement income? Oh, I get it, Social Security is really a form of capitalist security.
There seem to be many new souls on the drum lately and many seem to not understand the inevitable fate we face. The same reasonably bright people who predicted in 1999, when oil was $15, that oil would go to $75 per barrel or more within the first decade of the 21st century were right. Those same people are now predicting that we will see a reduction of 15-25% of the present production of conventional crude oil in the next ten years.
Do you really think that we , the collective masses of the industrialized world will smoothly transition to another energy system.
What will we use for money to do this?
If we are short of energy supplies who will grab much of that to build new energy intensive sources?
What technologies will allow this to occur? We have been pushing on solar and wind for decades, and they are what? less than 1% of our energy supply? I am a big believer in nuclear but it will not happen politically, in time.
The issue is not what we could do, although even that I am severely pessimistic about. The issue is what will we do. I laughed at the issue of land ownership, as if that were not pure instinct, Even a bear or a lion or a friggin insect stakes out territory. They know INSTINCTIVELY without enough land they will not survive.
We got a lot of thinkers here but not enough pragmatists. Monbiot's quote, at the header of the oil drum says it well. When the energy supplies start to fall we will go right back to fighting like cats in a sack.
John Michael Greer has an idea about unemployment.
Stuart Staniford thinks the opposite is true.
I will go with Greer on this one.
I'm with Stuart and it's not even a close call so I'm surprised Greer considers that a possibility. The number of jobless can't possibly be absorbed by the renewables sector. How many people does it take to manufacture and install renewables?
Here is a back-of-the-envelope guess for just the U.S.:
The mines are largely already producing, maybe add back shifts that will be cut as the contraction continues. No net new employment there.
The factories can add shifts but new factories will be required, too. These are highly automated places. Perhaps 150 people per factory, add 50 factories and you're still only talking about 7500 people.
Installation of a PV or CSP plant (for example) probably doesn't take more than 75 people between the earth moving, concrete pouring, erecting aluminum frames and so on. Add another 200 simultaneous projects just doing installation and you've now employed 15,000 more people.
Then there are associated support jobs, from office work to suppliers who make subcomponents (boilers, etc.), add perhaps another 25,000 people.
All told, I'm having trouble even getting to 50,000 people never mind replacing the millions that have already lost their jobs. Even if I'm wrong by an order of magnitude (which is possible but unlikely), it's still only 0.5 million people. Double that for wind and add a bit more to increase rooftop solar installations and we're at about a million people.
Not nothing but still peanuts when compared to the unemployment problem we are facing.
Ok So you have a problem with unemployment.
This is where O'Neil's plan comes to the rescue.
Sounds crazy but he has had his numbers checked by 30,000 physicists.
The plan has been worked on since 1976.
Shoot them off into space. They will thank you for it.
Keeps everyone rich, happy and fulfilled.
You have been backed into a corner.
There is only one way out.
Straight up.
(We've worn out our welcome here anyway. Ask Wisdom.)
I read O'Neil's writings when I was younger.
It pains me to say this, but his vision will not come to pass.
I think that O'Neil might sit out this dance.
But if I were in charge of a world power, it would concern me greatly that some other Nation or Ideology might colonise L5 before me and lock me out of the ultimate resource and lebensraum forever. The very Cosmos itself.
My crystal ball tells me that the Chinese will do it. They have many motivations and opportunities.
1 They can only feed 1/3 of their huge population.
2 Starvation is seared into their psyche.
3 They were thoroughly humiliated by Occidental Barbarians (us) due to their Confucian ideals of harmony. I think the lesson there will be well learned. "Progress or Perish". (We in the West should ponder that)
Or in the words of Bob Dylan "Those who are not busy being born are busy dying." My Back Pages.
4 Their mean IQ is higher than ours, but ours has a greater spread which means that we have Idiots and Geniuses and they have greater horsepower. This L5 project is within their intellectual capacity.
5 They have the advantage of a command economy. (Before you explode with Patriotic Indignation, remember it was Sputnik that ignited the fire under the West's rocket)
6 They are better versed than the West in the arts of civilisation, such as warfare, resource procurement and labour deployment.
7 Their population is domesticated. Any sign of malfeasance is eliminated from the gene pool. This makes their population biddable.
On the other hand, their current generation seems comfortably hedonistic.
Consider that they might be satisfied to leave us with a uninhabitable planet when they go.
Sadly, I think we've probably lost our shot at O'Neil's alternative. Our space tech is barely better than 1970. Peak oil appears to be staring us in the face. And the reaction of global powers is to play resource wars, either directly or by proxy.
Agreed.
It is that ol' Lizard within us.
Nate Hagens illuminates high discount rates well in this brilliant post The View from Talos.
Andre, I think you probably are off by an order of magnitude. That is, if (big if) commercial and residential rooftop solar turns out to be successful and ubiquitous in the long run. If that happens, most people and businesses will probably have to call someone to service their solar systems as often as they have to call a plumber. According to the BLS , there are about half a million plumbers in the country. So that seems like a good guess on order of magnitude. By contrast, again according to BLS, there are only 50,000 jobs in gas and oil drilling (although this surely doesn't count all the supporting workers, some of whom are plumbers. ;-) )
Then there are the secondary jobs that are generated by virtue of having half a million employed people with money to spend.
Still, your point that this all may be peanuts is well taken, at least for the foreseeable future.
....
I'm not sure what it is you that you were surprised Greer thinks. He's certainly not talking about the same thing Stuart was talking about. In fact neither of them are actually talking about what you talked about here. (How carefully did you read either piece?)
I just skimmed Stuarts piece and I, though I had read it when it first came out, I mistakenly misremembered Greer's piece being about the energy production system rather than the household economy. My mistake.
We will certainly go back to the household economy...it's a foregone conclusion, in my mind.
As for being off by an order of magnitude and your plumbers comparison, let's split the difference...I don't foresee every rooftop having PV (not as people get poorer). As Nate Lewis from Caltech points out, to have a revolution in PV installations requires that PV become roughly as inexpensive as paint.
http://www.ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=16407
I found a transcript of an earlier version of Lewis' talk...(he makes the same points. I wasn't going to watch the whole video, but the written version helped me find the paint comment in the video.)
http://www.ccser.caltech.edu/outreach/powering.pdf
In neither the video nor the pdf version does Lewis actually say that PV needs to be as cheap as paint, and for good reason. Paint is about $25 for 400 sq ft (that's a gallon, if you buy 5 gallon buckets it's cheaper). The cheapest PV panels are at rock bottom prices over $10000 per 400 sq ft, and yet PV is at worst only 10x as expensive as other sources of electricity, and at best reaching comparable levels.
IOW, paint costs about 67 cents a square meter, and Lewis said we need to get PV down to $10 a square meter, and currently PV is between about $25 and $40 a square meter.
I don't know what point Lewis is trying to make with the paint metaphor. It seems like he's making a point about how practical it needs to be, but he gives me the impression that he has never installed solar or painted a lot of square footage, and I'm speaking as someone who's done both. A paintable PV product would simply be messy (and toxic?) and not save much time. There are already flexible 'carpetlike' PV products, although AFAIK they are not cheaper. I don't know why he thinks mono crystalline silicon is not workable. It's almost as cheap as he thinks solar needs to be.
To sum up...yes, the question is whether PV will get cheap enough to be an ordinary expense for middle class homeowners, like getting the house painted or replacing the water heater or buying a new car (the latter already being more expensive than installing a solar system). I still think it's too soon to say PV won't get that cheap - the price is still dropping. And the other side of the coin is whether paying for other sources of electricity will get more expensive and meet PV somewhere. If either or both of these things happen, a lot more people will be installing solar.
Yes, he does, in your transcript not so directly but he does:
He is clearly discussing costs and he clearly mentions paint. In slide 43 he specifically mentions "solar paint" and he discusses how his team is using non-ordered materials (like amorphous silicon) to create that paint:
http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/colloq/lewis1/oh/43.html
Several versions of his talk are available here:
http://nsl.caltech.edu/energy
He is interested in getting the cost down for both the material and the installation. Without a breakthrough of that magnitude, there simply won't ever be enough installed in time to make a difference.
We can start to see the price asymptote, if only because installation costs aren't as compressible as material and manufacturing costs. Single crystal silicon has structural cost problems, which is why his team is working on "solar paint."
You should really watch the whole lecture. He does a very good job showing just the pickle we are in.
First, I should also bring this back to the employment question, and make it clear that I am not imagining hundreds of thousands of solar installation jobs appearing in the next decade. It will be many decades before things get there, if they ever do. But I don't think it's out of the question a few decades out...
If you want to see millions of solar roofs happen in a few years, then maybe solar needs to indeed be as cheap as paint. But it doesn't need to get that cheap for solar to become competitive with other energy sources, and that's the real breakthrough that would need to happen/perhaps is already happening.
No, he doesn't. He states very clearly the price target he thinks is necessary, which is $10 a sq meter, which is more than 10 times the cost of the typical house paint you'll find at your neighborhood hardware store. A reasonable interpretation of "cheap as paint" misstates Lewis' target cost by an order of magnitude or more. Perhaps it will be something you could buy at Home Depot, but it would cost hundreds of dollars a gallon and be kept in a locked case. You can buy solar panels at Lowes right now, btw. Full disclosure: I work for the company that makes the panels. Fuller disclosure: I think they're a rip off.
Even if he manages to get his solar paint working, it's not going to be something you can paint over your tile or composition shingle roof and then connect to your electrical service panel. The average person is surely gonna have to rebuild their roof with something else, probably metal, plastic or glass. So I don't see yet how this is going to reduce installation costs. Perhaps it will be used on new dedicated structures for solar power (but building those structures adds to the cost). Or it may result in much cheaper solar modules if the paint is used in a factory instead of directly on the roof; essentially though, that's what thin film modules already are.
I went back and looked at the video and saw that he skipped right over slide 43 in that iteration of the talk. I'm also not going to watch the first half hour, which is obviously mostly stuff I've heard many times over, and by the way I don't discount. Thanks for pointing the other links, perhaps I'll be interested enough to follow up and find what that the symbols in that slide are all about. Lewis isn't sharing his thinking behind either the $10 number or the practical advantage of solar paint. Therefore I really don't know what to think about those statements.
Anyway, I dispute that Lewis' price target is necessary to have a 'breakthrough' in PV installation cost. Present day PV costs are roughly two orders magnitude more expensive than his price target. And yet electricity from PV, installation costs included, is no more than one order of magnitude greater than for electricity from the grid, for the homeowner here in California. So let's split the difference again: I think a price target of $100 per sq meter (for modules) would make PV a financial no-brainer for millions of homeowners. IOW, I think that the present method of PV manufacturing and installation is already much closer (by an order of magnitude) to present day electricity costs than Lewis' thinks (let alone what his paint metaphor implies).
And what if electricity in the future simply IS twice as expensive as it has been, once fossil fuels are insufficient? Sure, that will mean a lot of people will have to watch their usage much more carefully, or go without. But it does not mean that millions of people won't find it affordable to install solar on their roof.
BTW, hope to maybe see you at the next TransitionSF meeting.
Ok, let's drop the whole paint thing...we have different interpretations of what he is saying.
In any case, I think we can agree that bringing PV down at least one order of magnitude in cost is required to get an explosion of installations. Making it competitive is nice but not explosion-inducing.
Likely will see you at the next meeting. I probably won't come back to check this thread.
Is it possible to start a transition to a world that uses less scarce raw materials and more labor? If so, how can we do this in a way that provides more work opportunities for the unemployed?
My assumption is that a transition to a world of scarce materials is already happening and that it will be increasingly chaotic. Survival will depend on sharing land, resources, work and skills. A new culture will be required that puts the survival of the group before the survival of the individual.
2. How do we connect up potential workers with the raw materials that they need? It doesn't help if there are 1 million would-be farmers, but they all live in apartments in the city, and have no access to land. Land is expensive, and the unemployed are mostly poor.
People who live in locations that have adequate renewable resources for the population will survive by functioning as a collective. It will be chaos in locations that are overpopulated and denuded of resources and will be question of who will survive.
3. Should we be doing more to share with the unemployed -- making certain that unemployment insurance and health care is available to them even if it means higher taxes, helping them with education and job placement, and perhaps taking them into our homes?
In a family type culture the unemployed become the responsibility of the collective. People who are excluded from this type of culture are on their own.
4. Are there things governments can do to ease the transition?
There is nothing that governments can do as they are too busy rearranging the deck chairs and will go down with the ship.
Self Governance will become the order of the day for those groups that organise themselves.
5. Are there things the unemployed can do to help themselves and other unemployed people?
The unemployed can learn practical skills that enable them to survive now and that prepare them for a subsistance lifestyle in the future. It is sad that most unemployed people are still trying to learn skills and get jobs that have no future
People who live in parts of the world that are not overpopulated, have adequate renewable resources and who are willing to give up their some of individuality to be part of a collective culture will find full employment.
There a plenty of examples of successful collective cultures in the world, but in my experience individualistic people are blind to their presence and have no capacity to reverse roles with members of these cultures.
Is it possible to start a transition to a world that uses less scarce raw materials and more labor? If so, how can we do this in a way that provides more work opportunities for the unemployed?
My assumption is that a transition to a world of scarce materials is already happening and that it will be increasingly chaotic. Survival will depend on sharing land, resources, work and skills. A new culture will be required that puts the survival of the group before the survival of the individual.
2. How do we connect up potential workers with the raw materials that they need? It doesn't help if there are 1 million would-be farmers, but they all live in apartments in the city, and have no access to land. Land is expensive, and the unemployed are mostly poor.
People who live in locations that have adequate renewable resources for the population will survive by functioning as a collective. It will be chaos in locations that are overpopulated and denuded of resources and will be question of who will survive.
3. Should we be doing more to share with the unemployed -- making certain that unemployment insurance and health care is available to them even if it means higher taxes, helping them with education and job placement, and perhaps taking them into our homes?
In a family type culture the unemployed become the responsibility of the collective. People who are excluded from this type of culture are on their own.
4. Are there things governments can do to ease the transition?
There is nothing that governments can do as they are too busy rearranging the deck chairs and will go down with the ship.
Self Governance will become the order of the day for those groups that organise themselves.
5. Are there things the unemployed can do to help themselves and other unemployed people?
The unemployed can learn practical skills that enable them to survive now and that prepare them for a subsistance lifestyle in the future. It is sad that most unemployed people are still trying to learn skills and get jobs that have no future
People who live in parts of the world that are not overpopulated, have adequate renewable resources and who are willing to give up their some of individuality to be part of a collective culture will find full employment.
There a plenty of examples of successful collective cultures in the world, but in my experience individualistic people are blind to their presence and have no capacity to reverse roles with members of these cultures.
When I started my engineering career in the mid-1970s, the idea of reduced work place hours was in vogue. Technically, I had a 35-hour work week with a regional government agency. Of course, it quickly became 35 hours of pay and 10 hours a week of uncompensated time. Only when I finally went to the private sector did I ever earn a dollar of "overtime." Last year, I took the option of part-time status rather than risking the possibility of full unemployment, not a good choice when one is nearly 60. I end up at the office at least four days a week, even though I am averaging only about 20 hours a week in pay.
At least one regional engineering consulting firm has gone to a 32 hour work week rather than lay off 20 percent of the work force. That may be the only way we avoid a permanent "real" unemployment rate that is approaching 20 percent nationwide. A four-day work week would also reduce the need to take off for routine doctor visits and other personal time off.
The idea of the urban unemployed going to work on farms is laughable. I grew up on a farm, and it is not a life that many of today's unemployed would accept. Moreover, where would they live? The "forty acres and a mule" concept didn't include a house, a potable water source, sewerage treatment, garbage disposal, or transportation into the nearest village. The environmental impact would be massive. The rural population in the United States is largely unchanged from the 1950s at 60 million. Virtually all the population growth has occurred in the larger cities. That is the only place where we have any possibility of maintaining civilization for so many people in a post-oil age.
...and yet the average farmer today feeds something like 200 people, versus the average farmer in the past who fed maybe 10 people. The difference is largely fertilizer and mechanization, which are fossil fuel inputs. I don't see any immediate shifts myself, given the scale of the problem, but at some point in the decline everything shifts toward a large growth in human-energy inputs into agriculture, whether its miserable hard work or not.
daxr...it does'nt need to be hard and miserable work and it can be solar powered. http://maddelinternational.com/wordpress/?page_id=19
We will need solar and wind but they still wont be enough to offset projected declines in oil production.
This would be the point where the system fails. Before this I would expect the agricultural and transport sectors to be top priority on receiving fuel rationing. When these two sectors can no longer be supported with the correct fuel/energy inputs then there will have to be a demographic shift to try and offset the problem, but hard manual work 40 hours a week pretty much requires that you have worked so since your teens or early 20s otherwise your just not conditioned enough to keep up.
I think Climate Change will be a much bigger problem than energy availability. Agriculture will try and overcome the problems of Climate Change by increasing its energy use (ie. working harder) and that's where energy availability will cap production. There's little that human energy can do to stem the decline in production as the main problem will be down to climate, soil degradation and water problems.
Even without energy availability problems, agricultural production will decline. Lack of fossil fuels will severely aggregate the declines and throwing humans at the problem will not make any real difference to the decline.
My reading of the graphs of "Limits to Growth" is that now is the time of peak per capita industrial output.
Now the pressure on you is at it's worst.
From now on the curve falls precipitously and you will find more time on your hands.
When that happens you will complain that the world spins too fast on it's axis.
Considering that energy from fossil fuels will dwindle in the future and that alternatives are unlikely to come online, I think unemployment may resolve itself in the long run. I'm surprised that so many here have not commented that that fossil fuels REPLACE people and PROMOTE OFF-SHORING by allowing for goods and services produced elsewhere to make it to the US. However, when fossil fuels start to decline, the machines and infrastructure that use such fuels will begin to suffer as well. This may (or may not) have a positive effect on employment.
For example, there was a story I read on TOD or maybe elsewhere about a consultant who was observing the construction of a dam in China. He noticed that the dam was being built almost entirely by manual labor (that is, using shovels to move dirt). Upon mentioning this to the construction supervisor, and commenting that they should be using more modern techniques, the supervisor replied that the use of modern methods would mean that most of the men would be out of work. To this the supervisor stated that he should give all the men spoons to dig with so that even more people could be employed.
In other words, after perhaps a rather painful time period, the US will either find alternative fuels for fossil fuels (unlikely, especially for transportation), or it will simply have to rely on good old-fashion, hard, manual labor to get its work done. As long as the population does not get too big (it may be, but not for the amount of oil that is probably left for agriculture and basic necessities), this is a possibility. Of course, it also means that people will have to fight for their rights in ways they never have before. Instead of letting governments send soldiers to countries to essentially steal their oil in order to maintain the status quo for a declining few, people will have to insist that the government reduce its dependence on oil by doing more tasks manually (that is, vote out those who promote war, etc.). This may mean that you do not get to have your medical records digitized because of the increased electricity to store them, or that you do not get your check directly deposited every month. You may not be able to constantly tweet from your cell phone, contact all your friends on Facebook three times a day, or even make sly comments on www.theoildrum.com as much as or as fast as you like, but if you are willing to go without these things in favor of something like "snail mail" or a nice face-to-face chat, then maybe the US unemployment situation will improve.
The Chinese don't build dams with manual labor any more. I was watching them build a road in Nepal, near the Tibet border, and they were using all the latest heavy equipment (the Nepalese were still building roads with manual labor, but the Chinese road construction standards were much, much higher). There were no roads leading to the road they were building, so they must have brought the big machinery in by helicopter.
The Chinese were building this road for free (foreign aid to Nepal), and the Chinese government doesn't usually do things out of the goodness of their hearts. I took note of the fact that there was a big river running down the valley which had about 10,000 vertical feet of descent from the high Himalayas to the plains, and that you could build a string of 1000 megawatt power plants down the valley if you had the money (which Nepal does not), and realized there might be an ulterior motive.
I mentioned to the guide that 1) the Chinese invaded Tibet in 1950, and 2) this road they were building was capable of carrying tanks all the way from Tibet to Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, and he said, "Yes, I know. That's why I'm learning Mandarin."
Great idea! Lend money and build them ASAP togeather with a local grid and high tension lines to richer neighbours that can pay cash to repay the loan.
You know, that seems so simple, and but the nearby country of Bhutan had an even better idea.
It's a small, Buddhist kingdom high in the Himalayas, with only 650,000 people. However, one day (and I'm just making this up) the king was sitting in his royal palace looking at the river, and thought, that's a really big river rushing down from the Himalayas. I wonder if someone would like to put a hydroelectric dam on it.
So he called up his close personal friend, the Prime Minister of India, and in fact India just happened to need a few gigawatts of electricity. So the Indians put a 1 gigawatt hydro dam on the river, and paid for it all, and the Bhutanese got a significant piece of the power. In fact, the GNP of Bhutan jumped 20% in one year, based on that one dam. The Indians called back and said "Can we put another dam on that river?" and the Bhutanese said "Sure, as long as we get some more of the electricity." There's room for three more 1 gigawatt dams on that particular river, and there are other rivers like that one.
Now, the Bhutanese believe in Gross National Happiness (GNH) rather than Gross National Product (GNP), but having the lights on and the television sets working does tend to make them happy. They have free education and free health care. For nomadic yak herders who aren't on the grid, the government will give them free solar panels. If they are homeless, the government will give them a free house, but they will have to clean and maintain a piece of the adjacent road in return. The Bhutanese really are happy people, and who wouldn't be with countries lining up to give you free energy and free money as long as you continue to be nice to them.
This distinguishes them from the Nepalese, who are having about 12 hours of blackouts a day, and are into Gross National Gloom despite their unrealized hydroelectric potential. It could have been different.
Yes, the local grid is very important, it is a key physical manifestation of the difference between exploitation and cooperation.
The road maintainance reminds me a lot about how the rail network were maintained in Sweden when it were built in the late 1800:s. There were single family homes a few km apart alongside the track and the homes were part of the pay for weeding the track, clearing snow in switches, daily inspections and other maintainance, more pay were given when signaling duties were added. This system were used for about two generations and were replaced by upgrading the infrastructure to a more robust standard and mechanization of manny maintainance tasks. But large parts of the unwelded tracks are in worse shape today then it were back then and no one does daily wedging of frost heaved tracks during spring thaw in the old low budget tracks.
Recession? Is this really a recession? The area in which I reside has 9.7% unemployment, an unemployment rate which would indicate a recession. However, there are jobs in some sectors which are begging for people and have been long before this downturn. These jobs go unfulfilled due to a lack of general interest and individuals who have the necessary skills and training. A friend of mine who owns an HVAC business has had a need for 2 service techs and 3 sheetmetal workers (positions opened with retirements) for the last 4 years. He has given up filling these positions, which pay $50,000 to 90,000/yr. There are not enough young people getting into the trades to replace those who are retiring.
The big push to get as many kids in college has left many jobs in the trades and tech sector unfilled. Along with this you have a public school system which put emphasis on college degrees for everyone, closing many technical and trade programs.
When I was in high school in the 60's you declared either college prep or industrial arts. If you selected industrial arts you would be trained in any number of trades from automotive to plumbing. These courses were often coordinated with the trade unions. The closing of industrial arts programs coupled with the decline of trade unions has closed an avenue for younger people to enter a job sector which has been steady and lucrative.
From personal experience, I am appalled at the quality of labor that is available. I advertised for two positions in my company. The majority of the applicants had poor work histories, irrelevant work experience or no experience. We still decided to take a chance and had all applicants take our aptitude exam. The results were revealing, out of 48 people 3 passed at an acceptable level only to have 2 of the 3 not pass the drug or background check. Employers are no longer willing to risk hiring marginal people with the hope that they would evolve into good employees.
For anyone who is unemployed and has a good work ethic and history, my advice would be look into the jobs that are begging even if in the past you would not consider it. Often these jobs are no longer advertised.
I predict that in 5 years we will have the opposite problem that we have today. Baby boomers will be retiring in droves and those positions will need to be filled. I think our education system has failed in preparing for this. I can guarantee that there will be few American youth prepared for these positions resulting in the positions being filled by qualified foreign workers.
On the quality of the young US labor force - now that's something most people probably have a story or two on. In my field - mechanics - we hire a seasonal guy or two a year, but literally every applicant for years has shown up in gangster-punk-wear, hat on sideways, tats, pants falling down, can't spell, unbathed, etc, to a job interview. Smoking, chewing, foul language and suspended driver's licenses are expected, and usually there is a parole officer who must be kept in the loop...
Tell me about it. I have more stories than I can mention. The last position we filled was through a temp agency. They sent us a worker who was on unemployment and we only offered 20 hr/wk to start. He proved to be punctual, intelligent and became well like by his co workers. When the job became full time permanent we offered it to him. His age 55.
My wife works at a silicon foundry. She can't get away from overtime (tons of it). It's not that her company isn't hiring. Her company offers full benefits with a generous vacation policy and an overall good working environment. With each batch of people they hire she is amazed how many are given walking papers within 60 days or just plain quit. The reasons are the usual tardiness, excessive days missed, refusal to do certain jobs etc. The last person they walked was a guy who had been out of work for 2 yrs. in the first 30 days on the job he missed work 8 days and was tardy (>1hr. 10 times) that left only 2days when he worked as expected. Add to the mix employees who are let go for doing drugs or having sex on the premises and it becomes a joke.Their HR is thinking seriously about closing off the hiring and the company is considering farming some of the work overseas where there is a more reliable labor force.
"With each batch of people they hire she is amazed how many are given walking papers within 60 days or just plain quit. "
The requirement for rotating shift work seems to be our biggest impediment to keeping people. That one factor chases off more than anything else, and is probably why less than 1% of our operations employees are female.
But what are you going to do? The machines never stop except for schedule maintenance shutdowns. Some one has to watch them.
This one's easy.
Get rid of the rotating shifts.
Sure, operate 24/7, that's not the problem. The problem is forcing people into a condition of perpetual uproar on sleep, child care etc.
There have been studies done on this. Rotating shifts cause serious health problems and skyrocketing personnel turnover, ever-worsening performance, and increased accident rates on the job.
Constant training of new personnel is a serious drain on any business. Assign permanent shifts and offer a pay differential for graveyards. Women will gravitate toward days and singles will desire that extra bit of pay for nights, especially in this economy.
There is a definite problem with the US labor force in that the educational system does not prepare them for the type of jobs they are likely to encounter. Companies do not employ factory workers with the skills (or lack of them) that they used to require. The entry bar is higher.
Nowadays, workers have to be able to operate numerically controlled machines rather than turn screwdrivers, and this in turn requires that they be able to read technical manuals and do basic mathematics. There are an awful lot of young people who do not meet these qualifications. In fact, a lot of people graduate from high school without having learned anything useful at all, and their future prospects for employment are not good.
In addition, they need a good work ethic to enjoy continued employment, and the schools don't teach them to work hard, either. Nobody smacks them across the hand with a ruler when they don't do their homework because that would be considered child abuse, whereas in the olden days it was considered the right way to instill discipline in children. "Spare the rod and spoil the child", the saying went. Those days are long gone.
I have often thought that it would be a good idea to have a trade as well as a university degree.
One of my friends in university got a diploma in instrumentation engineering technology from a technical school before he went to university and started working on his engineering degree.
He would spend the summers working turnaround at gas plants. The natural gas processors would shut down each of their plants every summer for a couple of weeks to do maintenance, and while they were down they were losing about $100,000 per day, so they didn't particularly care how much money they had to pay for overtime, they just wanted to get the plants back up. They shut the plants down in rotation, so he just spent the summer moving from plant to plant working overtime.
This worked out extremely well for him, because he could make enough money in the summer to pay for his whole year, and he walked away from university with an engineering degree, no debts, a fully-paid-for car, and money in the bank. And then he had a track record with all of the companies he worked for over the previous few years, so they all offered him jobs as an engineer.
Meanwhile, I had to spend the summers driving garbage trucks and digging graves and cesspools with a backhoe to make ends meet. This did pay better than you would expect, but not anything like what an instrument tech could make doing turnarounds. And then there was no job waiting for me at the end of it. I had to go back to driving garbage trucks part-time until the economy improved. Fortunately it still paid fairly well, and I was already used to the smells and the flies.
I had an interesting discussion with one of my cousins in Alberta about this one time. He was teaching heavy equipment mechanics, and the schools were shutting down their training programs. He said, "Do you know that the average heavy equipment mechanic in Alberta makes more than $100,000 per year?"
Mind you, this is in Alberta which has a huge natural-resources sector (notably oil sands) that requires lots of people who know how to maintain big, big machinery, but it does show that the schools were shutting off a lucrative career path for young people who might not be academically inclined, but were willing to work hard and didn't mind getting their hands greasy.
1. Is it possible to start a transition to a world that uses less scarce raw materials and more labor? If so, how can we do this in a way that provides more work opportunities for the unemployed?
Aluminium which is frozen energy, can replace copper.
Nothing can replace Phosphorus. We will have to get over our Scoleciphobia and use worms .
2. How do we connect up potential workers with the raw materials that they need? It doesn't help if there are 1 million would-be farmers, but they all live in apartments in the city, and have no access to land. Land is expensive, and the unemployed are mostly poor.
The millions who live on the end of a long food delivery system are a bit of a worry. My response? Run and hide.
3. Should we be doing more to share with the unemployed -- making certain that unemployment insurance and health care is available to them even if it means higher taxes, helping them with education and job placement, and perhaps taking them into our homes?
If everything is insured, nothing is insured.
4. Are there things governments can do to ease the transition?
I see the Gummint as the Iceland Thing .Make Laws, chew the fat, crack bawdy jokes and drink beer.
Vacuum the floor, mow the lawn..? Forgedaboudit.
5. Are there things the unemployed can do to help themselves and other unemployed people?
Um..Yes. Get their energy expenditure in balance with their energy input. Learn about the exponential function.
Which implies getting the microphone away from Sanguine types who love to hog the limelight. They are dear, fun, party people with bright headlights for eyes and burble fluffy nonsense for hours.
I know, I'm one.
Nothing can replace Phosphorus. We will have to get over our Scoleciphobia and use worms .
Worms aren't gonna get ya more P.
And you want the right worms. Not to mention the right worm management.
The Worm Gin was inspired but hard to manage. Best scheme seems to be a OSCAR bin with pre-composing in a rotating jet composting bin. Or Sir howard's plan if you have land/non freezing temps.
There is a lot of talk about population growth in this thread. I highly recommend
this video by Hans Rosling on global population growth.
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_on_global_population_grow...
He explains population growth well but his solution does not take into account the energy needed to lift so many people out of poverty. In fact with the declines in fossil fuels expected and extensively discussed at TOD we are only going to see a shift in the other direction as more people are forced into poverty. This doesnt bod well for the billion or so people who live on less than a dollar a day.
It's only a pertinent question while the percentage of unemployed is within the range of fiscal capability of Government to provide assistance. Once the oil crunch comes in a few years, the ranks of unemployed will grow unitl it exceeds that capability. But maybe that is the vein in which the question was intended. What do we do as the ranks of unemployed baloon out of control? Do we as a society offer philanthropy and bring them into our homes? However, I suppose that enters a new question, and that is how many people will we try to maintain in a satisfactory condition as net energy sharply declines.
Once things deteriorate to a certain point in which the economy falters and we transition into localized organic farming/ranching subsistence co-ops, hard choices will be faced about who gets help and who doesn't. There is no easy way to go through a bottleneck of population reduction, and we are certainly headed for one, economically and environmentally.
Enforce immigration law as it is written. Fire or impeach politicians who refuse to enforce the law. Increase border security, build fences and hire more border patrol and coast guard. Make sure they have the right equipment. Make sure citizens understand what the law says, because the media tends to lie and distort the way the system is supposed to work.
Improve the junior college and vocational training system, cut funding to high faluting degrees in Philosophy and Arts, and add funding to train more elevator repairmen, roofers, and stone masons.
That should do it.
Agree.
Not even close.
Here is what the unemployment situation looks like if the Canadian economy stays the same size, i.e. no growth, starting at about 2005.
(Peter Victor, York University: http://www.populationinstitute.org/newsroom/events/view/5/)
Now, add actual contraction to the model instead of just no growth/steady state and the situation gets untenable very quickly. It's situations like these in which governments are overthrown.
There are two primary parts to that disaster - a static economy, and a growing population. You can't really have both and stay healthy, so if one is very likely, you might realistically address the other.
"But how can we handle the transition"
can i ask who is "we"? if "we" means our government, the answer is obvious and is right in front of our eyes: a ruling class with access to cheap (or free) unlimited resources, and a ruled population taxed and regulated to death in order to allow the ruling class to keep their privileges.
the abundance which has been accessible to the ruled was an accident of history.
what will happen? i have no idea, but is obvious that our ruling classes have no interest in restoring the conditions for abundant, cheap energy. in fact, they are going the opposite way, hell bent on making energy more scarce and more expensive. same goes for restoring conditions of full employment, which is absolutely impossible under the current load of restrictions, rules and regulations.
probably there will be a shrinkage of ruling class size (less resources as less people is able to produce wealth)
just a little personal story. i have a large garden, and i am a middle age man. in autumn, this garden gives me way too much work to keep it tidy, but due to the high costs of labour, caused by government interference in private businesses, i cannot afford a gardener.
i am pretty sure somewhere in some third world country there is some young, strong guy who would accept to come work for me for a reasonable wage, which is however considered illegally low in this country.
he would have a small wage, say 1000 dollars (which is some 3 times less than the legal minimum here) plus accomodation, food, healthcare, heating, a transport, internet access and so on, all facilites which would cost me next to nothing and that he cant access at all in his third world country. and freedom to leave any time he finds something better of course.
however, due to regulations which allegedly exist in order to protect workers, i have to break my back in the garden after work, the third world young guy keeps starving and will probably die at 45, and the local gardening business keeps working only for government, the only one more or less able to afford the high prices that itself established.
so going back to "how can we handle the transition", i am convinced that the transiction can be simple, easy, cheap and seamless only if we raise up and slaughter the sorry bastards who, under the name of "government", due to stupidity, ignorance and greed, are running our civilization and economy into the ground.
maybe is good to remember that besides taxes and restrictions, energy is still cheap and abundant, and could still be so for centuries. which is a LOT of time. remember, a little more than a century ago, we were riding horses, and nuclear energy is only commercially available since 55 years or so.
With all the ranting about immigration from various (American) contributors here, gianmarko creates an interesting alternative angle, albeit a mildly disturbing one.
Job sharing.
Building and sharing knowhow.
Creativity and innovation.
Don't tax new business for a few years(tax holiday).
Do the same for self-employed individuals.
Simplify the rules and reduce taxes if you hire employees.
Naturally, when energy resources decline, the first thing to get hit is the working class. While the rich can practically fortify in their mansions and eat happily for a decade or two, the poor can't survive for a week or two without a job in absence of some help. As energy sources decline, unemployment is bound to increase. One solution that can really work is socialism in the short term. I have a strong feeling that socialism is bound to come back and come bigger than before. Most things in history happens in pairs, russia was invaded twice (napolean and hitler), there were two world wars, usa is getting defeated in two places, socialism will also have two lives. Once unemployment gets over 25%, a revolution is bound to happen if unemployment benefits can no longer be given by govt. After all, french revolution didn't happened until paris had 25% of population consisting of beggars.
Why? We'll need to replace energy with time in human labor. I'd say unemployment is bound to decrease.
Why would resource scarcity make an otherwise vastly inferior system superior? The market is obviously better at resource optimization.
With fall of energy sources, investments dry out and therefore employment. It takes time until machines are totally abandoned and human labor is employed again to replace it.
Socialism may work in short term because of higher role of govt providing guaranteed employment to everybody and taking care of everything when commercial systems are breaking down. Think about transportation disappearing, electricity going down etc, govts would step in to avoid mutiny and civil war. A lot of employment places are gone forever and so a lot of human resource is spare permanently and this can't be supported by unemployment benefits for long especially when energy sources therefore wealth and incomes are shrinking. In absence of unemployment benefits the spare human resource sitting idle can result in very high rate of crimes, mutiny and civil war. Govt have to provide some kind of work to these people to keep them busy. Socialism is great in disaster management and resiliency.
No, investments will abound as we need to extract energy in new ways and transform our societies to adapt.
There is no reason for "commercial systems" to break down. There is no need to guarantee employment, as there will be ample employment for as long as we don't hinder it.
They would not. Oil is not the fuel for electricity. The oil that is left will be prioritized (automatically, by the market) for essential infrastructure and energy extraction.
No, it is awful. Market mechanisms makes us adapt much faster and much more dynamically. Just look at the stupid laws against "price gouging" in the face of disasters such as Katrina. It makes less goods come in and makes the allocation of what is already there worse. That's just the results of weak socialism. More socialism makes things even worse.
Another solution of unemployment (the first being socialism) is legality of slavery. Once people are allowed to own people, rich would have to take care of poor.
The third solution is illegality of factory machines, especially in textiles manufacturing and wheat milling and ofcourse in farming. That could actually result in a shortage of labor. Heck, if govt cut off electricity today then everybody gets an instant job doing something that used to be done by a machine. It bound to happen one day, one day soon, one day like in a decade or two, so if it happen now we would have an energy cushion to fall back to and rest occassionally.
The fourth solution is cutting off working hours of everybody (a solution i seen adopted here in some factories) by a fixed proportion from the director to the peon so that nobody has to lose his/her job. I have seen cutting off work week from 6 days to 5 days, thereby increasing employment by 17%.
Once the newly and permanently unemployed masses understand that majority of jobs are not going to come back in developed world due to various reasons (shifting of jobs to developing world, energy decline all over the world in general, loss of huge capital and other resources in greedy wars etc) one strategy for them is to boycott all goods and services produced by machines and produce goods and services manually for each others. This kind of alternate economy can develop into sustainable towns and farms.
Mistakes of this size are not made innocently. Perhaps it's an object lesson for those who, in defiance of rationality, extend equal consideration to seemingly educated marxists and simpering sophomores.
I suppose I should be glad that this thread exposed the rot of collectivism for what it truly aims to achieve: enslavement of all and slow, painful death.
Wisdom from Pakistan indeed.
Texas is entirely self-sufficient in energy, manufacturing, transport, finance, and agriculture. California is likewise. Unemployment is very low in the Great Plains. Our worst economic troubles are in the Rust Belt, where two generations were seduced by trade unionism and lavish welfare entitlements.
I don't think it matters a great deal what "the world" thinks, says, or attempts to do. America has the advantage of infrastructure and ample resources. If there is a shock to be suffered, it won't be North America.
If there is a shock to be suffered, it won't be North America.
It already is North America, blind man. It seems you're just "comfortably numb" to it.
Don't be absurd. Nowhere else on earth has the capital, resources, knowhow and competitive market to sustain and develop energy supplies.
You, like most Americans, haven't been paying attention. There's the rub, the absurdity, the hubris. So go back to your little cornucopian life and come back to visit in a couple of years.
Quit. You're making a fool of yourself. There's $4 trillion in private US capital sitting in cash, looking for business opportunity. It is a triviality whether oil is $70 a barrel or $700. No commodity exists without competitive substitutes (natgas, coal, solar) and the rest of the story is market supply and demand. The only limit to US growth is government, the power to destroy, of which we have less than you do. Don't be so smug about American folly. When push comes to shove, we'll cut you off, let you fend for yourself.
Imported oil is no threat to anyone. It's a commodity, bought and sold like rice and pork bellies. Don't want to sell? Fine. We'll burn coal for electric power, natgas for transportation, bring our gas-guzzling troops home and unplug the World Bank.
"When push comes to shove, we'll cut you off, let you fend for yourself."
I've already cut myself off for the most part, and fending nicely. Thanks, though!
Funny how you and Activated05b signed up at almost exactly the same time ( 9 weeks, 17 hours vs 9 weeks, 20 hours), have commented on almost exactly the same stories, and have the same arrogant BS attitude. Maybe you two should meet. Say hi to theoldgeezer and all your friends at BigGovernment for me.
Happy trolling!
Haven't read him. I use my real name, and the only arrogance on display in this thread is the hilarious presumption of giving imaginary orders to a free people.
Thank You, that was very funny.
counter troll>
Isn't that 4 trillion dollars mostly bailout money from you, the people, to a bunch of rich Banksters that already stole your houses? Now THAT was a business opportunity!
For a country with so many resources you sure import a shitload of plastic crap from China, a whack of tarry petroleum from Canada and buy a lot of Oil from the same Saudis that blew up the World Trade Tower 9 years ago! Look at all you've accomplished since.
I hope you're enjoying all that freedom to be detained without trial that King George II gave you. And the highest standard of living in the world - in 1980. Wasn't that about the reign of George I?
The last countries that behaved like the modern USA were called Fascist states, and the historical USA fought alongside the Communists to blow them up real good. Lets see, what modern communist country of over a billion people is planning to whip the USA? Has more 'effective' government (eg that can govern, not just take business bribes). That supplies most of your critical infrastructure, rice, pork bellies, and owns the Panama Canal?
/counter troll>
When you smear contrary opinion as "trolling," it's an ad hom fallacy.
Your view of China is absurd. We sell them food, not vice versa. Government corruption in America nil, China endemic. Panama Canal not a strategic asset.
avonaltendorf:
If you are actually trolling, you are doing a pretty good job.
If you actually believe what you are typing, you have my sympathy.
avonaltendorf says..."Government corruption in America nil,"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
This Troll must be a government employee!
Big difference. The corruption here is because of business. The corruption there is about power and money. Business leaders are just as soon shot as rewarded in China.
I doubt it, Government employees know better...
But it's still pretty funny!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Okay, smart guy, try to bribe a cop or judge, see what happens. The few nitwits in Congress who took money under the table were found out, careers ruined. Garden variety clerks and bureaucrats won't budge. They're in it for retirement benefits. Or do you mean our soldiers and sailors are crooks?
Laugh if you want, the United States is clean as a whistle compared to China.
Where do you live? I can get a New Orleans traffic ticket fixed for $500. What do my NOLA folks say? Of course, it is often cheaper to pay the ticket, but some folks cannot afford the points. Truck drivers come to mind. Who do you trust more not to be corrupt. NOPD or some Chinese policeman? If I had a Chinese Policeman helping me, I am thinking I would get Jackie Chan or Jet Li. Hollywood.
Avon - bribes are endemic in the US political system. They are largely legal and are called contributions.
Have you read how pharms are regulated? The regulator's budget is directly paid for by the companies that are regulated. A conflict of interest? Sensible? No and yes if you see the drug business solely as a source of revenue. Yes and no if you think the gov's role is to protect the public.
Our government is deeply int the drug trade also - billions payed by the tobacco,alcohol and pharmaceutical industries. Also legal. Nothing makes sense when looked at from an ethics viewpoint, perfectly sensible when looked at from the viewpoint of power over the people.
Think a little deeper -
Oh, wrong! Was it trivial when the price went up to 147 and the collapse occurred? 147 is 553 short of 700. If your understanding of oil is such that you think a price per barrel of 700 would make no difference, then your understanding of the economic effects of higher priced energy is way off kilter. Substitutes for oil? What do you think most of the vehicles on the roads across America and other countries run on? Gasoline and Diesel, both refined from crude oil. How about asphalt or plastics. Hello! Ever heard of an oil based economy?
There are always alternatives. Oil sands, CTL, natgas, more efficient use and so on. A sudden $700 would hurt a lot, but PO isn't that sudden. You guys who think peak oil has been upon us since 2005 should begin to realize this now.
I've lost your train of undulating thought.
"It is a triviality whether oil is $70 a barrel or $700."
We ran this experiment on a much smaller scale a while back, and the results were absolutely contrary to your assertion. This was the 1973 oil embargo, where a ~7% decrease in petroleum supply resulted in a quadrupling of price on the open market and crippled our economy for a decade.
I think you are saying that oil is in-elastic.
you can't have it both ways
on one hand this invisible hand is all reflexive and on the other it isn't
so the fact the market hasn't reacted to the plateau in oil production with massive price increases that stimulate a transition to the alternatives is proof if ever we needed it that the invisible hand is working?
you have used the lack of market reaction as evidence PO is not now alternatively you decided that it is now but just a gradual thing
there is a problem with this total deregulated free market thing...
When I read that total public debt outstanding for the US is 13 trillion I wonder if I know where the 4 trillion in private US capital came from. Of course only a socialist /marxist /collectivist /statist would think that way.
But seriously when you mention that only the states with significant energy reserves are self-sufficient with low unemployment I think you are explaining why those states are better off.If Michigan had a couple of Ghawars it would be self-sufficient too even with unions and welfare.
Your comments about burning coal, natgas and bringing troops home would seem to non-Americans as the inevitable future.