BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Bonnie's Expected Impacts; Industry New Containment Plan - and Open Thread 2

This thread is being closed. Please comment on http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6780.

Because of the number of comments, this is a second copy of this thread. The previous one can be found at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6775.

With Tropical Depression Bonnie dissipating, the slow process of getting all of the boats back in place and workers back to work is now beginning. Much of the discussion at Admiral Allen's press conference on Saturday, however, was about the expected impact of the Bonnie. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco was present to explain the impacts. She indicated she expected a number of positive benefits of the storm:

  • It will spread the surface slick out and thereby lower oil concentrations.
  • It's expected to break tar patches and tar mass into smaller tar balls which means faster weathering and faster natural biodegradation.
  • It will also cause more natural dispersion again lowing the concentration of oil in the water and making it more available to the natural bacteria that are in the water that do this natural biodegradation.
  • Some waves generated by Bonnie may act to flush the beaches and redistribute oil and tar balls that are on the beaches. Some of those tar balls may be dispersed, some may move back out to sea. In some cases, the beaches may look cleaner as a result of this redistribution.

Dr. Lubchenco wouldn't quite go as far as say that she expected the storm to be a net benefit, though. She said it would depend on where you are. Some places might be better, but others might be worse. In some places, oil might be pushed farther inland, although with little storm surge, this would be a relatively smaller problem. The storm wouldn't have any impact on the deep oil mixed with the water.

Admiral Allen mentioned that it had been possible to keep two vessels on the scene, so they were able to be with the ROVs overnight. Thus, they were able to continue monitoring pressure readings. Pressure readings continue to slowly rise (6,891 psi at midnight last night), showing evidence of integrity at the well head.

New Oil Spill Containment System Planned by Chevron, Conoco Phillips, ExxonMobil, and Shell

I thought I would shift gears and show some information about the new oil spill containment system that the four other major oil companies are working on, which you have probably read about in the news.

The information I am quoting and the image are from the Containment System Fact Sheet. Further information is available on a Press Release.

According to the Overview:

This system offers key advantages to the current response equipment in that it will be pre-engineered, constructed, tested and ready for rapid deployment in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Its primary objective is to fully contain the oil with no flow to the sea. The system will be flexible and adaptable. It will be responsive to a wide range of potential scenarios, deepwater depths up to 10,000 feet, weather conditions and flow rates exceeding the size and scope of the current spill. Once constructed, the system components will be fully tested to ensure functionality and will be maintained in a state of continuous operational readiness. In the event of a future incident, mobilization to the field will start within days and the system will be fully operational within weeks.

Subsea components:

• A newly designed and fabricated subsea containment assembly will create a permanent connection and seal to prevent oil from escaping into the water.

• The assembly will be equipped with a suite of adapters and connectors to interact with various interface points such as the wellhead, blowout preventer stack, lower marine riser package and casing strings, including any well design and equipment used by the various operators in the Gulf of Mexico.

• The assembly will be designed to prevent hydrate formation and blockage.

• Capture caisson assemblies will also be built for use if required to enclose a damaged connector or leak outside the well casing. Once installed, these assemblies will create a seal with the seabed to prevent seawater from entering the system.

• The oil would be captured by the subsea containment assembly and flow through flexible pipe to a riser assembly. Riser assemblies are made of a seabed foundation, vertical pipe, buoyancy tanks and a flexible pipe specifically configured to connect to the capture vessels.

• The subsea system will be supplied with the necessary hydraulic / electric controls and chemical injection (such as hydrate inhibitors) through an umbilical.

• A manifold will distribute the oil from the subsea containment assembly to multiple riser assemblies if more than one capture vessel is necessary.

• Riser assemblies and umbilical will be designed to quickly disconnect from capture vessels so that all subsea equipment stays in place in the event of a hurricane. An additional system component will be available to inject dispersant into the subsea containment assembly if required.

There are also surface vessels, which I won't describe. The fact sheet indicates that the initial investment is expected to be approximately $1 billion. The new system is targeted for completion within 18 months. ExxonMobil has been designated to lead the engineering, procurement and construction of the system components. The companies behind this endeavor will form a new non-profit organization, the Marine Well Containment Company (MWC), to operate and maintain the system.

Prof. Goose's comment:

Welcome--modified 21 JUL 2010

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NU -- Very frustrating for sure. I'm certain you and I know folks who could turn the witnesses into babbling fools in a matter of minutes. As you say, let the guys who do this work every day ask the questions and they'll slap down any witness as soon as the BS starts to flow. But the govt seems almost afraid to have any of us practical experts. Heck, I know one cmt engineer who didn't graduate high school 30 some years ago and I'd bet lunch he could spend a month teaching Dr. Smith what he doesn't know about real world cmt problems. As you say, Dr. Smith is highly educated. But I doubt he knows the tricks/lies/deception used by many hands.

Unfortunately, Smith's session got seriously out of hand. Probably the worst I've seen.

He was there to speak to his data interpretation and I think he did that quite well.

Then the lawyers tried to sidetrack into a cement discussion, which Smith openly admits he knows next to squat about.

IIRC, he's a beach guy with only 6 wells worth of practical cement supervisory experience.

Takes all kinds tho.


IIRC, he's a beach guy with only 6 wells worth of practical cement supervisory experience.

Takes all kinds tho.


Lots of Experts become available, for a fee. Secretary Chu is paying a whole bunch of them. This is going to generate quite a number of Richard C. Hoagland radio interview characters. the more nonsense they can spill on an interview, the bigger the reputation.

It got (somewhat) out of hand only because he had no lawyer to advise him or what he can/should comment on, and he doesn't look like someone who is used to serving as expert witness. There were plenty of questions that were not within his purview, and he could easily have said "I don't know" or "I can't answer that question, not enough data" etc without losing credibility or authority.

On the core issues of interpretation of limited available data, I thought he was solid on 2 fronts a) the negative tests all failed, and b) it was hard for anyone to be certain when the well first kicked in, on that day, because there was not enough info on mud monitoring. It was finally recognized by 21:30 but there were probably many earlier signs that due to the way they were conducting the tests and displacing etc, these were obscured.

Irrespective on how the session seemed to look like to non-lawyers, this was crucial and damning testimony. The lawyers reacted by either vigorous CYA on his direct testimony, or conducting fishing expeditions at the expense of BP (eg on the phone call between Vidrine and Haflie, which to me was very interesting and revealing, even though the witness was not required to answer the question, nevertheless, the POINT was made. LOL)

As for Captain Nguyen, personally I think he is doing a great job. If you get beyond his accent and English, he demonstrates an excellent grasp of both the technical AND legal issues, for someone who is not a trained lawyer. Also remarkably quick thinking on his feet, in response to the legal challenges. I think he is hitting the right balance, for an inquiry, between fact-finding vs sticking to the tighter rules of cross-examination in a court room. The lawyers try (as lawyers will, given half a chance) to run rings round him but by an large I think he got them firmly in the right place(s). Just my personal observation.

I saw a bus the other day that was the AfterThePress.com bus. Here is the photo.

As far as I can tell, this is a well funded, more professional, and a more mobile version of the TinFoil. I would live in that bus. Anyone met these folks or know them?

Afterthepress.com mission statement

Edit : after checking the website, they just look better funded. Either they are writing a book or posting it all in youtube. Maybe it is just an excuse for a road trip. Not much there to ascertain the quality of the work.

I suspect that they have a Donation link. You did send them some support, didn't you. It costs money to keep that thing cool in these rising temps.

How about I ride my bike to go see Obama? I could do it in two months. I bet I could get donations.

You should get there just about the time for the final picking of the White House vegitable garden. You can instruct them on how to cook okra and make kraut to carry over for the winter. Post a picture stomping the kraut into the crocks.

That's what Charles Krauthammer is for. The cabbage hammer!

RE "New Spill Containment System": Rube Goldberg comes to mind.

I love how they worry about all the tactical stuff when the strategic stuff has not even been discussed. It is just a PR ploy by industry. The states and/or the feds will have sworn men/women in uniform in one form or another next time. It really would make everyone feel much better about what is being done. When BP is in charge, you think the 'evil company' does not care for the people that the spill has impacted. When you get a 'new team' on it, certain prejudices decrease. It is a good way to prove best efforts IMHO.

Yes, it is quite the contraption. It is interesting to see so much energy suddenly being devoted to containment; perhaps this will keep the Obaminator off their backs?

As a lay person, I have one other comment to make to the oil companies about their "new" containment system. They've been operating in thousands of feet of water all this time WITHOUT a system like this in place????

Good God!

It is really pretty amazing that there is not more attention put on spill containment. When we left Chicago for Shanghai on that jet it was carrying over 500,000 lbs of jet fuel. It could have gone down in the lake. What was the UAL plan for containing the oil? Do they even have one? It is pretty amazing what they can get away with when they pay off the monitors.

If your plane went down, I doubt the oil would be a concern of yours :)

It's possible that some of the technologies and techniques for the new system hadn't been really invented before this last blowout. Remember, the Conventional Wisdom back then was that the blowout preventers would always work.

More on Corexit:

This is from an associate who works with an EPA adnubustrator/whistleblower. The finance connections are 'interesting':


Gulf Oil Dispersants Unlikely to Be Endocrine Disruptors and Have Relatively Low Cell Toxicity, Tests Find

Probably just more Government lies.

From a discussion in the previous open thread about the Mike Williams testimony:

I have a particular problem with believing the over-speed shutdowns are linked into a general gas alarm. My previous experience suggests those systems are normally stand-alone, but who knows?

To be fair, about the last thing you want on a dynamically-positioned drilling vessel is an automatic unscheduled complete power shut down.

JTF, I did not intend to suggest that either of those ideas was in the Williams testimony, and I apologize if I was not clear. I did not hear testimony that the overspeed cutoffs were linked to the fire and gas general alarm system, and I did not hear testimony that zone conditions triggering a general alarm would trigger complete power shutdown.

Obviously, the overspeed controls didn't shut down engine 3 before it blew. I think I had heard in previous discussions, which may not have been under oath, that the engines had both mechanical and electronic overspeed governors, but I don't have a substantiating link right now.

One thing I did hear from Williams that I thought was interesting: ESD panels weren't "manned" and there was no ESD panel on the bridge. ESD panels were in the drill shack, engine control room, and ECR (electrical control room?) When the gas/fire general alarm system was inhibited, sensors continued to send data to monitors on the bridge that were being watched by the dynamic positioning officer and/or the senior dynamic positioning officer. If one of the 12 or 14 ESD systems needed to be activated, someone on the bridge would need to identify that and somehow get a human being to an ESD panel and hope that the correct buttons would be pushed for that zone or those zones. Not an expeditious emergency procedure.

'scuse please:

Thinking about what I wrote above, I am not positive of the location of the dpo/senior dpo. Perhaps I assumed they were on the bridge? Perhaps they were in one of those other three locations? That would be less bad.

count - I believe bridge is correct. Same place you would control a mooring system from if you had anchors...


When I was in charge of designing and implementing an alarm system for a large network, I added a manual key activation. The engineer that was in charge of the actual design work and drawing laughed when I asked him to do it. I told him that the switch was not the important thing, it was the keys. By giving copies of the key to multiple personnel, I gave a clear message that multiple people were always cross checking each other on the alarm system. I always made sure at least two key holders were always on duty. I made them hang the keys from their necks. Everyone knew I had a box at my house. The manual alarm was activated two times in three years, and both times I needed to get there and straighten the team out. Sometimes the old stuff works well.

I will repeat what I said before. If people are disabling alarms then the alarm system needs redesign. The more I hear about the alarm/monitoring system the less I like it. Alarms should be exactly that, things are going wrong and something needs to be done PRONTO! Why shut off alarms so people can sleep? Those people should never be disturbed in the first place unless a life critical situation is occurring. They need to be fresh and ready for the next day's work. You do not need people to be working half asleep because they got woken up n-times by alarms that did not require the evacuation of the rig.


During a cutover I deactivated my bell and slept through it. It was part of the process. We had to replace a whole bundle of cable for thousands of dollars to stop one intermittent alarm. You are right, but the problem is not alarm design per se. Maybe the programming or sensors, but the real problem is a management team that does not have 'key around neck' type leadership. One big part of leadership is making sure the managers under you understand the safety mission clearly. Either the executives did not instill this principle in the employees, or they did not have a belief in it themselves. Either way, the executives are responsible and should have to answer for their actions. Now do you see why I happened to like the key around the neck? It really does make a person feel responsible for something important. I copied the practice from the service. TinFoil.

NAOM - Big difference between disabled and inhibited. Disabled means no alarms. Inhibited means the alarms ring on the bridge and a human decides whether the emergency is sufficient to disturb people.

The biggest questions is what other systems, that arguably should remain fully automatic, were inhibited in order to inhibit the general alarm system in the accommodation block?


ESD? What is that?

Emergency Shut Down

count - I may well have crossed up my reply.

I think there was some discussion about a high-high in certain zones triggering an auto 11KV shutdown which I suspect would lose your thrusters. I'm thinking this system was inhibited, along with the general auto alarms for fire, high combustible gas and high toxic gas.

I also seem to recall some discussion about the "RigSavers" being disabled because a trip would cause the flappers to be sucked right off their hinges.

Unfortunately, there were so many tales of woe emerging at the time I need to go back over the testimony.


You're right, there was a lot of testimony. 11 KV was a reference to the main electrical panel, which Williams testified was not in his bailiwick.

Mike Williams clearly understands practically nothing about how a diesel engine works. He didn't know what the "rig saver" was. That is the device intended to shut the engine off if it over speeds due to intake of combustible gas (or over speeds for any reason). The rig saver cuts off air to the engine and another device cuts off fuel. These are devices that come with the engine. Williams did not know anything about those devices.

He did imply that the fresh air intakes for the engine rooms were tied to the general gas alarms which were inhibited. He also said the reason the emergency shut down of fresh air to the engine rooms was inhibited because past experience had shown that the engines would just suck the fire doors off their hinges when the air supply was cut off (this was hearsay - he didn't know that from personal experience). The emergency disconnect for the generators did work when the engines went into over speed. People have testified that the lights went out a little while before the first explosion. The first explosion was probably the N0.3 engine.


TFHG, I appreciate your creativity but the problem lies with making sure the tested and inspected BOP is properly maintained and certified per reg/code. We don't know if the BOP failed because it couldn't do the job (under rated design)or it failed because it wasn't maintained.

The components needed to do the job with hydraulics are available today. A little more horsepower (PSI) and a little added muscle will do the job if needed and it's available.

Perhaps, it was an attempt to make the shear ram 10 times more powerful than the current technology. What did you think of my DepthDraulics idea?

Checking dumpsters is a better use of time.

They removed the dumpsters. I do not know how hard it is to run 1 mile hydraulic lines. Did you see my blimp video?


Good luck, TinFoil.

There are always dumpsters to check. Every city has them. You are not looking in the right places.

For food or video of leakage. I am not dumpster diving yet, but no big check has come yet. Check with me next week.

How did you know what was in a dumpster unless you checked?

The methane eruption should be earlier than next week. I don't expect you will be posting then.

Like we used to say in the desert, who the hell wants to live forever anyways?

Wino Wisdom:

Why those M-- F--s always worried their house. Who need a house?

If something like the methane tsunami gets my place, I doubt I will be in a position to miss it. See previous jet fuel comment.

That house is just an energy hog. Get free of it and get natural.
Don't pay bills for things that don't make you feel good.
Whiskey is naturally fermented. Then you can have a natural sweat with a Hooter's tryout.

Indoors and a/c feels good. It is hot outside. 325 KWH last month.

Seminoles did not have A/C and they still had babies.
Shut that energy sucking A/C off and get natural.

Listen to the Wino Wisdom.

PV to run AC directly

i think you find that current technology won't support effective A/C on a stand alone PV system. you have to introduce hydrocarbons to reduce the harvest size neccessary, or hydro, which is solar writ large.

No AC; I think it's been 95-100 degrees almost every day since the Fourth. (Cuts my production down by maybe 0.5 KWH/day).

Used maybe 4.5 KWH/ day while making around 9.... meter went backwards 120KWH in 30 days.

The fancy picture at the top of this thread shows a hydraulic accumulator on the sea floor. That should be a standard part of every deep-water well, if it isn't already. It makes the mile-long hydraulic line unnecessary and it makes the deadman mechanism completely independent of what happens on the surface.

What parts is this accumulator comprised of?

Edit: http://www.accumulators-hyd.com/hydraulic-accumulators/stainless-steel-a...
Looks like a well engineered version of 'my' idea. Apparently this is a common piece of hardware. Do you charge it with high pressure or does it just use the pressure at depth? Either?

If there is no surface indication for the need for actuation, then why hit the activation switch? It has to be attached to a surface indicator and it may be two mile long for the connection.

i think the answer is to install a semi-flexible nanocarbon fiber section of casing . it would be activated electro- kinetically by the energy generated by a pressure bump. it would effectively choke a gas "kick" by acting as a set of baffles. and it can be transported to the site suspended in drill mud and assembled on site and will be self regulating under programming.
i thought you guys were high tech? maybe i'll order our government to build one, and we'll rent it out. time to think outside the box.
anybody want to find some references, or just bitch?

You left out the requirement that it should always be positioned 200 ft ahead of the drill bit. Patent that idea. I hereby relinquish any claim to the idea.

got any conspiracy theorists out there. this isn't tinhat, more greenbacks

this stuff should be rolling of the truck pretty quick

...or maybe it was already there?

Nano particals are perfectly sized to plug the water filtering membranes of krill. If this is approved for use it is a perfect example of the EPA being paid by industry.

Nanoparticles are most likely to enter the body via ingestion and inhalation. Enzymes and the physiological environment could change the properties of nanoparticles (particularly surface activity) and the question What is the structure of in vivo nanoparticles? has not been answered. This is a particular issue for redox-active metals because cationic nanoparticles would have an immediate toxic effect on the blood-brain barrier."

oops .probably too late. clever monkeys ,we were.

and you probably should cut down on sunscreen, titanium dioxide nano-particles go straight to your head.

If this stuff ever gets released into the GoM, and then picked up by a Hurricane, it COULD actually end up in Lake Michigan and damage the trout. Secretary Chu should listen to some highly paid consultants before this is approved for release from the lab. Actually, to be entirely safe, they should require that HAL report on where every sample of this has been distributed require them to monitor the air around those sites to ensure it is not dispesed in any way. If it was to ever come in contact with the mantatee population, well . . . .

To CCT from previous thread:


"RSG - It's been a long time since I rode two wheels, but is that speedo really in MPH? My gut says KPH, where 220 KPH = ~140 MPH . . ."

NAOM is correct. The front wheel came down at about 140 MPH and the needle buried, stopped, at about 220 MPH (~400 KPH), however, if you watch the tach, 220 is reached at about 10K RPM and the speedo stops climbing (against stop) ... the tach continues climbing another 1K RPM. 225-230 MPH? Also doesn't take long to hit 200 MPH either :)

Who needs a Ferrari, Buggatti, Viper, or even a new 'Vette when a good bike will smoke 'em all at about 35 MPG? :) God knows I love GREAT engineers :) Thanks :)

ps- like I tell my mom, I'd rather wipe out at 150 mph than 25-60 mph ... if God deems it necessary.

rsg, one of my brothers visited me a couple of weeks ago, touring on some kind of big Honda. He claimed 42 mpg at 75-80 mph, 50 mpg at 60-65 mph.

My bike was a heavy tourer. I used to enjoy speed kids in their fancy cars trying to burn me at traffic lights. I would just sit there, not moving, until they got halfway across the junction. I would then open up and pass them before they got to the other side of the junction. It upset them.


Hey Count ... every big bike I've ever had would get at least 45 MPG at 60 on the highway. Of course ripping off 80 MPH wheelies waving at the blue hair as you go her Prius probably causes poorer fuel economy... which is offest by the blue hair as she slows even further wondering what the heck just blew by her. Carbon offsets - gotta love 'em :)

Yeah NAOM... the power to weight ratio of bikes vs cars and less drag makes little Jap car owners wheeeeeze. The only way the can beat you is with a super car on a prolonged road race with a lot of sharp corners... as long as their brakes don't fade away. Good cars can corner better IMHO.:)

Why do you believe that G-- deemed it necessary for you to ride at 150?

"Why do you believe that G-- deemed it necessary for you to ride at 150?"

Seriously? He gave us, or others actually, the brains to create machines that can do this. It would be a waste of His creative energy to not do it. My goal is to hit 201 MPH one day. :) Gotta pace myself though. Same reason men go to moon, fly jets, climb mountains, drill 5000 feet below water, stay get married, etc.

My point was I'd prefer to wreck at 160 instead of 50 MPH. I'd rather die than spend a life paralyzed or something... and yes, I have an friend paralzed July 4th from the nose down... diving into a pool playing with his grandson. When it's your time, it's your time. Just make sure it's fast enough to get the job done right the first time and not delay things.

Of course, until it is my time = no fear.. within limits :)

Looks like Skandi ROV2 is getting in position to collect some more bubbles from the wellhead area.

Skandi ROV2 moved off from the wellhead for a bit and has now come back, repositioning itself to collect more gas sample. Now as before, it appears to be collecting from the pipes protruding horizontally from the well head.

Going to full screen view and looking to the left of the frame, a significant stream of bubbles can be seen coming up along the casing from the mud line. It's puzzling that they aren't collecting a sample of that gas. (Note: the bubbles appear clear).

http://www.ustream.tv/pbsnewshour is "off air"...I didn't realize how hooked I am on watching the live feed...

i think that what thw ROV's are looking for on the bottom is pieces of Hallibuton's new experimental Nano fiber casing cement which probably failed in the blowout. it would make for good science.


another possibile culprit,more new technology, just looking for a home.

"The polymeric material used to form the polymeric jacket or the outer jacket of the Heating/DTS cable 200 according to the invention may also include particles that improve cable wear resistance as it is deployed in wellbores. Examples ofsuitable particles include Ceramer™, boron nitride, PTFE, graphite, nanoparticles (such as nanoclays, nanosilicas, nanocarbons, nanocarbon fibers, or other suitable nano-materials), or any combination of the above."
we're way past an oil problem, if this material is being released so casually into the environment.we may get see an end.

And the worst thing is that they are advocating introducing this stuff into a well bore several thousands of feet in depth. That will burry if for hundreds of thousands of years before it is released. Meaning that is how long it will continually pollute. If it can have that long term of an effect, it should take a very long term study to determine if it is safe.

Are you for real, or just trolling?

@todfan--regarding the trees (tried to reply but previous thread had closed).

The main energy driver to get water moving to the top of a tree is transpiration, which is evaporation of water from the stomata of the leaves. Only a tiny fraction of the water that reaches the leaves is used in photosynthesis. There also may be a little positive root pressure but this is a lot less than what we have been seeing in the Macondo well's oil reservoir.

The capillary effect is also important: h = 0.3/d where h is height and d is diameter of the capillary tube. The xylem which function as the vessels of a tree are around 20-30 micrometers in diameter. The xylem are made of cellulose which is a polysaccharide and which forms straight chains that are perfect for making strong little tubes. The -OH groups on the glucose molecules form hydrogen bonds with the Oxygen molecules on adjacent glucose molecules The capillary effect is a function of surface tension (hydrogen bonding makes water molecules attract to each other--cohesion), and adhesion (hydrogen bonding between unlike atoms) of the water molecules to the cellulose walls of the xylem.
The capillary effect allows the water to be held hundreds of feet from the ground, but the pumping energy to move the fluid column comes from the transpiration.

There are a lot more details and variations, but this is probably enough.

I guess you could kill a tree with drilling mud, but it would be tedious!

IF someone could figure out how to harness the capillary effect, they will have created the free energy engine.
We do KNOW that it occurs. Something lifts that water to the top of the tree. And it does not have a heart pumping it.
Now, if I can collect the water from the transpiration, I can let it fall through a turbine and light your bulbs. that would be amazing.

you just invented rain

That is certainly a form of it.

The difference is that a tree keeps the flow inside and is not particularly temperature dependent. I do not believe that capillary frow through plants is the same as simple evaporation. It is somewhat, to me at least, a bit of natural magic. If it so easy, why can't man make water flow uphill without having to add energy to move it? Trees are not temperature dependent for life, like a hurricane is.

Osmotic power plant to receive royal debut in Norway
October 7, 2009

I think this is a new record. I've got seven simultaneous ROV views now where I'm looking at them and going "what the hell is THAT thing for?"

pipedoc, waymore, ray keen --- Good comments on capillary action in tall trees. How about pressure to get blood up a long giraffe's neck? Do they have 120 over 80?

OK< I give up. What's the contraption that looks like a sump pump on a plate that Q4000 has?

Open Thread question:

Can anyone point me at a pretty & easy to read PO global supply/demand graph which is based on 2009 or 2010 data?

(There are lots of '2004 base case' and similar dated versions around - but current data will be more convincing.)


Supply=Production=demand. Just look up production. If you're interested in CAPACITY (I don't think the word supply makes sense in this case), then you can guess at it. Any capacity source you look up is likely to be wrong, because capacity is mighty difficult to figure out. When an oil field is cut back, so it doesn't produce at full capacity, its full capacity becomes a fuzzy number. Fields can be capacity tested, but this isn't done as much as people think. So there are a lot of "experts" quoting capacity figures, but they don't really know what they don't know, so their figures aren't that accurate.

Err - can't you have UNSATISFIED demand?

Sure, you can have unsatistified demand at a given price. For example, say you want 1 million barrels of Arab light at $60 per barrel. You can demand like crazy, but nobody is going to satisfy you in the near term.

As market demand goes up, and producers find out their capacity isn't there, they start offering less cargoes, and the buyers start offering more for the cargoes available (what they don't want is to have their refineries shut down).

Speculators enter into the equation, they guess future capacity, and bid accordingly.

If Lubchenko shows up at the daily briefing, soomeone should ask her about its arctic temperature data http://ace.mu.nu/archives/303977.php

In America, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been trumpeting that, according to its much-quoted worldwide temperature data, the first six months of this year were the hottest ever recorded. But expert analysis on Watts Up With That, the US science blog, shows that NOAA's claimed warming appears to be strangely concentrated in those parts of the world where it has fewest weather stations. In Greenland, for instance, two of the hottest spots, showing a startling five-degree rise in temperatures, have no weather stations at all.
A second technique the warmists have used lately to keep their spirits up has been to repeat incessantly that the official inquiries into the "Climategate" scandal have cleared the top IPCC scientists involved of any wrongdoing, and that their science has been "vindicated". But, as has been pointed out by critics like Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit, this is hardly surprising, since the inquiries were careful not to interview any experts, such as himself, who could have explained just why the emails leaked from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were so horribly damaging.


Check out this graphic http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/gissarctichole.jpg

From Watts Up With That http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/25/sea-ice-news-15/

Maybe there is something to that Granularity of Climate Models idea.


This post is certainly a hoax perpetrated by clever ignoramuses, right?
I guess since there's no weather station on my shady front porch then it hasn't been over 100 degrees there for the past three days? The pre-Copernicans continue to crack me up...
I'll bet you could scare up some beautiful charts and graphs showing that if nobody is there to hear it, a tree that falls in the forest makes no sound. sigh....

From yesterday's Unified command briefing:

Q: And also for the static clear I just wasn't clear if it's simply the mud that's involved or is it mud then followed by cement on the static kill?
Thad Allen: On the static kill I believe it's only mud. If there's any – if that is not the case then we'll get back to you.


In his video presentation 21st July, Kent Wells says they may choose to pump cement after the mud in the static kill. Wells describes the static kill starting minute 6


Well, oilpatch, in Bob Dudley BP gets (a) a chemical engineer who (b) came from Amoco.


Hi Lotus.
You seem to be answering a question from a previous thread. I guess you get what you pay for. I would like to discuss this with you, but it is too time consuming to fish back through previous threads. One of my children is a chemical engineer. I admire them so much because their discipline requires a higher level of mathematical and scientific rigor , IMHO, than say my discipline, electrical engineering.

Hi again, Juan.

Actually, I'm wondering whether BD's chemical-engineering background strikes folks here as any better preparation for CEOing an oil company than TH's geology was, and whether "Amoco" rings their alarm bells (since a number of them, for instance Rockman) have attributed many of BP's failings to the Amoco culture it absorbed via merger. Basically, I'd just like their read on Dudley (if any) . . .

Thank you Lotus for your prompt reply.
My expertise is not such that I can add value in a discussion regarding the CEO successor at BP. However I would like to emphasise that a corporate entity is not a natural person. Whoever replaces TH is simply a representative for the entity. Also a corporate entity is not capable of empathy. BP is not able to express emotions like sorrow, regret , for example.
Lotus, early in this saga we had distinguished lawyers spelling this out for us. I suppose it would be possible for people to dredge through the the commentary on this site, the result would be outstanding. I am not in a position to do this.
That is all there is to it dear lotus juan

When It Rains Dept.:

BP (BP/ LN) reports emissions release at Carson refinery at California on Sunday

11:15 26-07-2010

Off-topic, sort of. Possible implications galore.


Hi Snakehead,
Good work Snakeeye ! I will pursue further. cheers.

It sure would be nice if when you post a link you would post a bit more descriptive material.


In the Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo (STEP) carbon capture process, the sun’s visible light and heat are used to capture large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and convert it to solid carbon for storage or carbon monoxide for fuel generation.

I would have except for

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Did y'all see Dana Milbank's column yesterday? Coming from him (or almost any WaPo columnist), pushback against shameless CEOs is a bit of a surprise.

This is a list of retiring senators. Since they are stepping out of the ratrace and the pressures of pursuing re-election, perhaps we could cajole some of them into publicly discussing politically unpopular topics, like peak oil.

Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
Ted Kaufman of Deleware
Roland Burris of Illinois
Evan Bayh of Indiana
Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
Carte Goodwin of West Virginia

George LeMieux of Florida
Sam Brownback of Kansas
Jim Bunning of Kentucky
Kit Bond of Missouri
Judd Gregg of New Hamshire
George Voinovich of Ohio

Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania

Bob Bennett of Utah

They can all be reached through the US Senate portal at www.senate.gov

In the House, their email system has an electronic gatekeeper that is works on zip codes - if you live in the wrong place you cannot get in. IN THE SENATE, however, there is no such nonsense. You can reach senators from wherever.