100pc green energy possible by 2020: report
Posted by Big Gav on June 23, 2010 - 3:01am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
The ABC has an article on a Melbourne University report on switching Australia to 100% renewable energy (echoing another plan by Beyond Zero Emissions) and relying heavily on solar thermal power, wind power, electric vehicles and an expanded electricity grid - 100pc green energy possible by 2020: report.
There is an accompanying interview at The World Today.

A Melbourne University report says all of Australia's energy could come from renewable sources by 2020 as opposed to the Federal Government's target of 20 per cent.
The Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan was launched in Canberra this morning by Coalition Senator Judith Troeth, independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Greens Senator Christine Milne.
Currently, wind and solar power provide less than 1 per cent of Australia's total energy needs. ...
Beyond Zero Emissions executive director Matthew Wright says the 10-year road map focuses on technologies that are already commercially available such as wind and large-scale solar thermal. "The inherent design of a solar thermal plant is that it stores its heat away for night time," he said. "We've modelled that from our 12 solar regions across the country and our 23 wind sites that we get 100 per cent of our power needs, 365 days a year, 24-7."
The report says the goal would also depend on a $92 billion upgrade to create one national electricity grid that would link the renewable projects to the city and urban areas.
University of Melbourne Energy Institute professor Mike Sandiford says cost should not impede the switch to renewable energy. "To do it in 10 years is in many ways akin to a infrastructure roll out of a wartime-like operation in many senses," he said. "But the important point of the plan is that costs are not a real impediment. The total costs of our business as usual comes down to about a cup of coffee per person per day." ...
Professor Sandiford says the plan is also based on a shift towards public transport and electric cars, which he says would offset any projected increases in electricity use.



It seems the BZE folk are also using the tagline "Zero Carbon Australia" - part of what seems to be a loose global alliance of zero carbon groups like Zero Carbon Britain :
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/011289.html
http://www.zcb2030.org/
Stuart Staniford seems to like the British proposal - from Early Warning "Zero Carbon Britain 2030" :
This is faith based thinking and I am sure the true believers will be all happy clappers for this report.
There is zero chance of Australia replacing fossil fueled electricity generation by 2020(magic number)even with a build of infrastructure at a wartime(magic word) level of commitment.This is pie in the sky stuff beloved by many in the environmental movement.
Why is it airy fairy? -
(1)The proposed time frame is impossible in the engineering,political and economic framework we have in reality.
(2)Renewable sources such as solar thermal have still got a long way,technologically, to go before they can provide base load power (if ever).
(3)Wind can't provide base load power without some massive build of storage sites,like pumped hydro.
More dams means more environmental problems,not less.There are other storage systems,unproven on scale up at this stage.
(4)Tidal or wave power has to operate in an extremely harsh environment so is extremely expensive and vulnerable.
(5)Hot,dry rock geothermal is still in the experimental stage.It may make a significant contribution in the future.
(6)All of these options require the building of massive extensions to the existing distribution system.This is at a cost in resources above and beyond building the generating units.
(7)If,not when, all this is built there is still the task of producing reliable base load power by a delicate and technologically complex balancing system.This has fragility written all over it.
(8)The concept of efficiency and conservation in electricity use is a good one and needs to be pursued regardless of other decisions.There is quite a lot of fat to lose but there is a limit to what can be gained.
(9)Electrification of significant parts of the transportation system is a good thing.However,this increases power use so it is a double edged sword in the early stages of a shift to non-polluting electricity generation.
(10)The current ideological blindness to nuclear power in Australia has grave repercussions for the future of Australia.Nuclear power generation is a 50 year old proven and advancing technology used widely throughout the world.It is the only practical technology presently available which can provide reliable,base load non-polluting electricity generation at a realistic cost,both in money terms and in environmental footprint.
(11)There are plenty of opportunities throughout remoter parts of Australia for the application of solar thermal and solar PV in order to get diesel generators off line except for back up.Currently,this is the ideal application and makes a good smaller scale testing ground for improvements.
For those who are not religiously devoted to the Hate Nuclear Church I recommend Professor Barry Brook's (Adelaide University) website - www.bravenewclimate.com - for some practical ideas and discussion about nuclear energy,climate change and related subjects.
Cripes - how many errors can you cram into one comment ?
BNC isn't a remotely rational site - its basically just a PR exercise for the nuclear industry.
Check out his "variability of wind power" post for a classic example of biased analysis. Or the even more laughable one "showing" that solar thermal power (or was it wind ?) uses more land than nuclear power. And not to forget the classic "Australia could run out of gas in 7 years" one - even the craziest doomer would struggle to justify that nonsense.
The sad truth is that nuclear power is a legacy technology that continues to apply the non-sustainable extract and pollute model of electricity generation. Those of us born since the 1950's understand this - its just the old folk who seem obsessed with trying to re-live the fantasies their childhoods...
Gav, you claim that nuclear power uses more land than wind/solar equivalent. Have you checked your sums?
So we can compare like with like, as a baseline, let's take the site areas of Sizewell and Oikiluoto fission stations. Both of the order of 1.2GWe nameplate capacity (Sizewell B only) and 1 sq km area (viewed on Google Maps). 90% operational load factor experienced by Sizewell B, gives 1 sq.km (100 hectares) per average producing GWe (= 1000MWe), rough enough.
For solar thermal stations, take for example the Solarpark in Muhlhausen, Bavaria. Expected output averaged over 24 hours, 365 days is 0.7MW. Its area is 25 hectares. Scaling this up to 1000MWe is a factor of 1000/0.7 = 1429, giving a required area of 1429 x 25 / 100 = 357 sq km!
The sun-tracking Serpa Solar plant in Portugal is expected to do a bit better, averaging 2.3MW and taking 60 hectares. Scaling this up to 1000MW gives (1000/2.3) x 60/100 = 261 sq km per performing GWe.
So much for solar, but, hey, maybe bravenewclimate was talking about wind power. Referring to withouthotair.com, a wind farm with a mean wind speed of 6m/s (an over-estimate for most of the UK) is expected to produce 2.2 W/sq.m. = 22 kW/hectare = 2.2MW/sq km. This is comparable to the area for a Serpa-Solar type solution. Of course, land between those 1000-odd 3MW wind turbines can be used for agriculture.
If you want to refute "laughable" comparisons, please show the figures, and where I have gone wrong in the above.
"Those of us born since the 1950's understand this" etc .
As I said in a previous post on another topic - Cornucopian Clown.
If you wish to post drivel do it on your own blog.You are a disgrace and a liability for TOD.
If you want nuclear, write to your MP, we can have a referendum on it, see what the people say. Assuming you believe in democracy, that is.
In the meantime, stop being a drongo and grow up.
Democracy is over-rated.
Noblesse oblige is superior.
The people proud of their ignorance. We live in an age of Stupid.
Generation IV reactor
How many of the Lumpenproletariat are qualified to discuss these issues?
Robust discussion is good. Personal name calling is not. It shows bad taste and an inability to back your views. Big Gav has enormous respect on this and the global site.
Not sure about 100% but the major renewables crowd seem to have an ally in Ms Gillard from the tone of her speech. I think Australia will get just token wind and solar relying on gas backup. Coal stations will be kept on til well past their use-by date then replaced by gas fired generators. That is to say renewables will remain as a minor fraction of the generation mix. As we flog more gas overseas the price of that increasingly gas fired electricity will keep rising. Frankly I don't see either electric cars or the smart grid making that much of a difference.
Meanwhile thanks to our coal fired internet and our oil driven food and transport system we kid ourselves it can all be turned around quickly. I think the reality check will come quickly e.g. $2 a litre petrol, 30c per kwh electricity, $5 a loaf of bread. The answer must be a form of round-the-clock low carbon but unobtrusive generation and distribution that provides energy on demand. The zero carbon proposals so far fall way short.
I'm pinning my hopes on cold fusion, and my plans on a yacht.
What I am particularly fond of is the idea of taxing carbon as it comes out of the ground.
This money is distributed per capita throughout the nation.
If you use carbon you will pay for my retirement.
Economic entities will quickly grasp the fundamentals.
Vote for the carbon tax.
So has Geothermal dropped off the perch? (Admittedly it's not yet "commercial".)
I thought the Aus. Govt was touting Geothermal as a major renewable?
Geothermal not commercial? Someone forgot to tell these guys:
http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-sectors-that-will-take-huge-pro...
Its worth distinguishing between the different types of geothermal power.
Traditional geothermal (as harnessed in New Zealand, Iceland, California, Indonesia, Kenya etc) has been around for over a century and is still growing strongly in appropriate (volcanic) locations. As yet we haven't found any relevant resources in Oz.
Low temperature geothermal is already in use in places like Birdsville, but probably won't be appropriate for really large scale generation.
Enhanced geothermal (also called HFR or HDR geothermal) requires deep drilling and fracturing and is still mostly experimental, particularly in Australia where there aren't any commercial plants operating yet (though GeoDynamics, Petratherm and others are trying to get to this stage).
It hasn't dropped off the perch, but progress hasn't been as fast as many would like.
Deep down in the earth the pressures are great.
The stopes of the gold mines of the Rand have to progressed quickly so as to remain ahead of the plastic deformation of the rocks.
If you come back in a week the stope has squeezed closed.
It is hot down the mine.
Hot rock drilling will need to get to much hotter and therefore deeper rocks.
I wonder how long the fractures will remain open?
I'm sure PNG would have heaps of sites for traditional geothermal, and it's no further from Australia than is Tasmania... we already have the Bass Strait line, we could have a Torres Strait line, too. Our wind and solar to them at some times, their geothermal to us at other times.
To get to 100% renewables we need to combine political and economic power.
To combine the two forces all our tax revenue is raised from carbon as it sees the light of day.
The money gathered must be redistributed to the voters. (Therefore they will vote for the law)
This cost will be passes along to the End Consumer.
If Joe sixpack has a carbon rich lifestyle he will end up supporting me.
This will make him competitive,when it is explained to him.
And I, being a conscientious citizen will be rewarded by not having to work. (Work/growth generated by debt is the problem)
The economists and accountants will see the light and turn it off.
The one ingredient that is vital for any sort of move is willpower. We collectively must want to do this; and we don't. We could do it, we have the technology and finance, we just don't want to do it. We must also close down the coal export business; and that isn't going to happen either. It will only be possible when serious parts of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne (and other places too) are flooded by high tides. By then it will be too late anyway.
This is why the carbon tax must be paid directly to the voter. He must be paid to want to vote for it.
I don't want to go to work. This is why they pay me to go to work.