A continued humble and sincere thank you to all who have donated thus far. It will help us pay for the fourth server we brought online to accommodate the increased traffic. (See point 3 below.)

1. The Oil Drum is a special place. We strive to maintain a high signal to noise ratio in our comment threads. Short, unengaging comments, or comments that are off topic, are likely to be deleted without notice. (to be clear--engaging, on point humor and levity, more than welcome.)

We are trying to perform a service to the public here to coordinate smart people who know their stuff with other people who want to learn about what's going on. Promotion of that ideal will be the criteria by which we make our decisions about what stays and what goes.

Flame wars, polemic exchanges, and other content deleterious to the community will be removed, either by an editor or by the community through its moderation process.

2. If you see a problematic comment USE THE COMMENT MODERATION SYSTEM--see the "Flag as inappropriate" and (?) beside it? Learn more there. If you see comments that are questionable after you've done that (that aren't being removed), let us know at the eds email address.

It is up to this community to enforce the norms we have established here (a high signal to noise ratio), keep. it. up.

Our guide to commenting at TOD can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/special/guidelines . Please check it out if you are unfamiliar with it, but it is essentially 1) citations welcome (if not necessary), 2) be kind to others, and 3) be nice to the furniture.

3. We have gotten a lot of queries whether this bump in traffic is adding costs to keep the site functioning. Truth is, yes, we are incurring added expenses from these events. It is also true that we try not to beg from you very often as we are not the types to bother you with constant queries.

That being said, if you are inclined to help out, your support is always welcome and very much appreciated. To those who have already given, thank you very much.

You can find the donate button in the top left hand corner of the main page.

4. If you have come here to vet your plan to kill the well, understand that you will be queried on whether or not you have read the other 10 previous comment threads and all the myriad plans that have already been run by the kind folks in this room; if you have actually read all 10 comment threads and still think your plan has legs, well, then maybe yours really is the one that will save the Gulf of Mexico.

This is not to say that well considered questions about current attempts and modifications to those attempts are not welcome; they are. But try to place them in context and in what's actually going on, as opposed to your MacGyver dream solution where you have a 10 megaton bomb, an ice pick, and Commander Spock at your side.

5. Also, if you're looking for live chat to talk about the ROV/LMRP video, etc., and are IRC capable, go to freenode, the channel is #theoildrum

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or you can get there just via a browser: http://webchat.freenode.net / Just enter a nickname and #theoildrum in the boxes; then when connected type /join #theoildrum)

6. Don't be afraid to go back and read the last couple of open threads yesterday and today before you start on this thread. They are really good, and will likely catch you up if you have been out of the loop for a while. We shut down threads when we get to 300-400 comments, as it's really unmanageable. Lots of good stuff in there though.

This is a link to the text of President Obama's speech.

This is a link to a review of the speech by Richard Heinberg, called A Tepid Plea for Unspecified Change, which is quite good.

Total oil collected since the LMRP Cap containment system was implemented is approximately 160,400 barrels.

Wow. The volume run through that system in less than a fortnight is already 60% of an Exxon Valdez.

Wonder how much more billowed out from under the cap?

What was not mentioned was the 11 men who died and hundred others that suffered due to the negligence of BP. That was manslaughter. Those men have all been forgotten already. Why is Hayward not in jail? Why has no one been fired?

I would love to hear some industry companies or officials clamering for justice for those men. The compensation paid to their families will be nothing compared to the money BP was "saving" by endangering their lives.

Terms in BHO speech:

"
war

assaulting our coast

fight this spill with everything we got

do whatever it takes

battle plan"

These terms have never been used by a sitting President except in wartime or in relation to an imminent war. They are ominous and indicate that he knows something that he is not telling the public yet.

President Obama is a skilled politician with excellent advisers and speech writers who would not consent to that language unless something real big is up --- and they are mobilizing behind the scenes.

IMHO: fail. 1) Don't petulantly parade accomplishments of an oil spill response that was, and still is FUBAR'd. 2) Leveraging a national disaster for anything, even a clean energy bill -- tacky, tacky. Buy votes and support some other time. 3) Sure we want BP to pay, but what we want to hear is how the response will improve, even if they do.

And in the coming weeks and days, these efforts should capture up to 90 percent of the oil leaking out of the well.

I assume our Plugger-in-Chief is talking about the "overshot tool" - the massive steel cap that will replace the current cap-and-choke recovery systems? Kent Wells's June 10 tech briefing PDF shows the overshot tool (with flang-y bolt holes on it) and TWO hurricane-proof collection lines to surface ships.

I thought it was weird how he glossed over anything real, using phrases like "weeks and days", and giving us things to pray about instead of assuring us with (admittedly not that convincing) technical information.

First off it is important to point out there is no right, no left, no democrat, no republican, no for the people what so ever.

There is definitely no one person, THE PRESIDENT, that has any meaning what so ever.

There is a government aka PTB that is and has been doing what it does for a very long time, which is maintain its presence.

Having said that Obama is the Al Jplsen of our time only without the ability to sing (truth is I don't know if obama can sing or not but if he could I think we would have been regaled by now). He has been trotted out to entertain us and nothing more. He was conceived and operates on pure hopeium.

This is not just Obama bashing. It has nothing to do with Obama. It would be the same regardless of who was chosen, he just met all the criteria.

He is a man thrown up to distract the masses, and indeed the world, and he has accomplished his job admirably. He bought us some more time. Which is the name of the game right now.

If after seeing this latest performance and you don't see this you are in deep denial.

Since when does the United States negotiate on equal footing with foreign criminals? 20BB is not enough. I resent how British Petroleum framed this as a problem between equals, saying the US is a great country, BP is a great company, etc. Since when do we allow a foreign corporation to control media access to a disaster site on US soil, as per this NY times article. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/us/10access.html?src=tptw
Also, what if the well is not capped by August. Read the comment by dougr on the oil drum here, which explains why the flow rate is getting worse. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

A well failure is similar to a dam failure, little trickles leading to spectacular gushers and structural collapse.

The part of the speech that interested me the most was the discussion of longer term plans. The immediate tragedy of the explosion and spill - it would be great to have some miraculous fix, but I don't really expect too many miracles, and especially not a plan for a miracle coming out of a monster bureaucracy. But to steer that monster in a smarter long term direction, that is a core task of the President. Short term reponse to the crisis is of course essential too, but sadly there is only so much that can be done to reassemble Humpty-Dumpty.

Obama didn't just say that we need to get off foreign oil. He said we need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel altogether. He acknowledged that it is a finite resource and the reason we are stuck with the challenges of deep sea drilling is due to that finiteness. This seems to me to be a milestone statement.

Did I miss it, or did Obama omit mention of nuclear power? This is a huge fork in the road ahead of us. If we are going to scale nuclear power up to be a significant part of our strategy to get off fossil fuels, we will have to start moving fast. I did not hear that in Obama's speech. I think that between weapons proliferation and waste, with reactor safety merely frosting on the cake, that nuclear is not a smart strategy. So I was not disappointed that Oboma omitted nuclear power. But I think that was a huge silence.

Last thread closed before I could post...

Might there be a company in North America that could make one of these skimmers for testing?? Half-scale prototype-- 30-40' ship and 12-15' collection wheels about 8' high from water surface to propeller.

(Click on Large above small image at site below)

http://tinyurl.com/CEA-CREATURE

If so, contact group owner at Oil-tanker_Carousel Yahoo group.

HOG

Since the last big spill of Ixtoc 30 years ago, there doesn't seem to be much alternative to the laborious and lengthy Relief Well drill to kill method. I'd like to explore if there is an alternative. Being mindful to keep Theoildrum postings not entirely fiction based, I've tried to vet some of the components first :)

A brief recap: We configured a 5000' pipe to the sea bed BOP. That is connected to 13,000' of drillpipe/casing to the oil layer. To perform a top kill, we try to counterbalance the reservoir pressure (13,000psi) with a dense (2x that of oil) column of kill mud (that computes to require around 13,000' also). We couldn't create such a column down the bore as there is too much of a leak just 8' above the injection point. So bottom kill is expected to work because we can build the plug working upward before the leak escapement. To implement this "bottom fill" we contend with the leak continuing for 50+ days, contract out 2 RW rigs, and (re)drill through 13,000+' of rock, just to get mud placement started near the bottom.

I'll start this thread as food for thought. It may not be implementable for this situation, risk/reward, or time frame, but maybe could spark contingency preparedness for the other 1500 wells in the GOM, or be incorporated in future bop design changes. As Ixtoc occurred 30 years ago, it would have been nice to be in a different place now with new methods of attack.

It's useful to recognize the classifications of ideas presented here and elsewhere as 1)remediation of spilled oil, 2) collection/confinement of the BOP leak for topside recovery and 3)halting the leak. To kill, from where we are now, the RW approach is tried and true and probably presents the least risk. However the risk metrics could change if for example, hurricane reports suggest a long lasting event, days away, by which all catchment system will have to be disconnected - also furloughing remedies of classes 1) and 2). So there might be a situation where choosing a riskier route is beneficial for expediency.

While it is understood the casing is compromised, the thought is to explore what would be necessary to deliver a bottom fill without 50+ days of redrilling. To feed a 3" constant o.d pipe down the existing 6" drillpipe or 20" casing, it would require a bolt-on assembly that incorporates 1)valves to maintain the existing leaking pressure (9000psi) so as to not upset what is currently encountered 2)a pipe seal mechanism that allows feeding in this new 3" kill pipe under 9000psi. 3)flange bolt removal seems to be possible as others have pointed to specialized motorized tools for that purpose. 4)operable shear - last discussed seemed to indicate it can still be backed out and reapplied. 5)a tool bit (mud motor or topside power) only necessary to ream through the constricted sheared pipe end (more below). 6)Standard drillstring operation to feed the total 18,000' drillpipe. Around 75 tons upward force (exerted on 3.5" drillpipe, 9000psi) is to be countered by the drillstring weight and feed force. The pipe might be the constant o.d. collared pipe or if coiled tubing and a snubber can be operated at depth then that might be used. 7)likely some support structure is needed to keep additional weight/stress off the existing bop/casing.

Previously I queried about pics of sheared drill pipe. It appears the deep "V" super shears were not used on this well as I had thought. I think it is quite reasonable to guess a 6+" pipe cut by such a tool might produce a constricted cut that is very close to leaving a 3" dia opening. Other than that, there are pics in the link below showing a pipe shear that might be more representative for this well.

Now, as for what might be incorporated into a future improved BOP shear: Imagine one of the 2 blades much longer and having a 3" portal access hole. In regular operation the shear blade is extended and severs the pipe, the access hole is still outside the outline of the casing. When needed, the existing stop can be removed, mechanical or hydraulic motion can hyper extend the blade assembly so as to position the access hole over the casing end. Of course a new extended pressurized assembly described above has been fitted prior. There might also be ways of improving the way a super shear holds the sheared pipe in a predictable location for ease of 3" kill pipe insertion.

other thoughts-
This may seem rather extreme to halt a well by this means, especially in light of unbolting the flange where new valve could be attached. It is the catastrophic failure events like this one where the dropped riser and torqued casing presents the need for suppression by bottom kill.
It goes without saying, anything planned should be tried top-side on a mock up to weed out unforeseen problems first (hmmm, for a second I thought reaming out the severed pipe might be free to spin, but no, I expect the pipe rams to clamp them).
Discussions of solutions seems to have really ceased - most likely they were disproved or irrelevant now with the changing progress. FWIW, here's a summary of ideas (though, a few inadequately explained away IMO).
The oil spill: Your solutions
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10268979.stm

pipe shear end pics and super shears:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648877

the "v" cutters (super shears) referenced above:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6538

constant o.d. pipe and 9000psi passage seal.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6603/650820
Addendum: the full assembly would be similar to a BOP. In particular, for emergency it will again need a shear capable of severing collared pipe.
Sunnnv's reply was very helpful as I was unaware of the Coiled Tubing and Snubber systems.

drill pipe variants:
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/DisplayImage.cfm?ID=318

the 50 day (2) RW projection:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6573

Here is what I think about BP and Goldman Sacs now that GS are going hand in hand, with BP America. The America part of BP will ultimately go bankrupt and BP International will make a financial killing:

BP Internationl knows its America division is going to declare bankruptcy, and so GS is setting up a financial instrument(s) to allow BP International to make a killing when BP America belly up.

BP will put up a very good show, telling the public that the BP International will back up BP America, and that BP America will get through this, regardless of what it takes.

So when BP America finally closes its doors, BP International will have made out like a bandit, which of course is what the whole system is about.

America now is not what I grew up with. The trust between people is gone, soiled by capitalism and the constant need to boost the bottom line, regardless of who it harms, except for thee.

As far as the speech, that's as close as you'll ever hear anything regarding Peak Oil from a President...He should have told people to begin individually weaning themselves off of oil...My family has been weaing off of oil for over 3 years now...I attached one of my videos showing people how to do it and prepare for Peak Oil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHmXhgBhtWk

MrEnergyCzar

My Orphaned post: I put two of the comments below. I’d love to see this answered by y’all.

I am not a Simmons fan but I do believe that there is currently an underground blowout. Can you critique the following "proof"?

First, assume that there is a leak in the casing at around 1000 ft as reported by WSJ and by Washington Post (it is all sourced: I don't know the original sources).

Then
- The pressure at the seafloor is around 2300 psi. That is just the weight of the water above.
- The BOP is at the seafloor but it has a higher pressure - 4400 psi - at it's base because it has restrictions to flow inside. You have to apply more pressure to get the flow out the top.
- the pressure at the casing leak (inside) 1000 ft down is BIGGER than that at the BOP by the weight of the oil in the column between the leak and the BOP. It's an extra 400 psi making the pressure inside the casing, at the leak, around 4800 psi. (note that flow friction will make it even bigger).
- What about outside the casing? The pressure outside is simply the pressure at the seafloor plus the pressure due to the weight of the mud sediments surrounding the casing, which add an extra pressure of around 1000 psi. So the total outside the casing is around 3300 psi.
- we're done: the pressure inside the casing is 4800 psi and the outside pressure is 3300 psi. The fluids press outward with a differential of 1500 psi - a large pressure. The sediments have very little tensile strength because they have not lithified yet.
So the leak flows outward and upwards.
Am I off base here? The argument is ridiculously simple - probably already discussed but man, all those posts to go through! Any assistance appreciated - I am happy if you debunk it.

Comment 1:
If the casing is leaking and has been doing so since the blowout, where's the evidence?
Answer:
As far as I’m concerned, there is no evidence. Many are looking at ROV videos but I believe that they don’t know how to interpret them. But really, who’s LOOKING for evidence. Not BP. Remember that crap about “it’s not important how much it’s flowing because we’re here to the end”? Then they bring a 15K/day containment system. Someone has to want to find the leak. That’s why I’m interested in the pressure as evidence that there must be a leak.
Comment 2
You forgot that the casing is of steel and is thick enough that it can hold 1,500 psi.
Answer 2:
Good point. Even better” there are three strings at 1000 ft. But we have the word of the wall street journal and washington post that the casing is leaking there and that, in fact, top kill ejected most of it’s mud from these leaks. These days, I am very skeptical of MSM “journalists” but I am assuming they didn’t get this wrong.
Comment 3:
Why's it go up??
Answer 3
Seems like geomechanics in shallow sediments says it'd go lateral. But it's an impermeable medium and I do not think the oil/gas would remain trapped at depth - I think it'd go vertical at, say, inhomogenieties.

I got into a series of posts today about respiratory issues being discussed on MSNBC and a Dr. Ott came up. Apparently she is also taking her message to the locals around here. Maybe she is right, but I would also ask why a marine biologist would make a good industrial safety engineer? In other words, I would tend to better vet a doctor of all knowledge from Valdez Alaska than say Dr. Spivey from the local college. I talk with him regularly and he was a captain in the military. Big nature lover too. Maybe she is the best thing since sliced bread, but I at least question some of her motives. With all her books and attention she is getting, what is her primary motivation? I politely question all out of town experts working in this area in the same way.
http://www.baldwincountynow.com/articles/2010/06/05/local_news/doc4c093c...

I'm afraid this article did little more than toss darts at one cherry-picked statement out of the entire speech (and then take a swipe at the Clinton Administration for folding coal research into the Department of Energy).

We've needed a President who could make statements like;

For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we have talked and talked about the need to end America’s century-long addiction to fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again, the path forward has been blocked – not only by oil industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candor.

The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight.

He's already taken action on this subject by accelerating alternative fuels research, raising CAFE standards, and promoting energy efficiency and conservation.

Another part of the speech reminds us of another seminal peak oil work;

... the transition to clean energy has the potential to grow our economy and create millions of good, middle-class jobs – but only if we accelerate that transition. Only if we seize the moment. And only if we rally together and act as one nation – workers and entrepreneurs; scientists and citizens; the public and private sectors.

This is exactly what Robert Hirsch suggested when he proposed his peak oil mitigations.

Governments worldwide will have to take the initiative on a timely basis,
and it may already be too late to avoid considerable discomfort or worse.
Countries that dawdle will suffer from lost opportunities, because in every
crisis, there are always opportunities for those that act decisively.

You should note that the voices crying out for dawdling are the ones that we should be directing our disapproval to;

Most Americans are baffled by [the suggestion to come to grips with our addiction to fossil fuels]. The crisis as they see it is a broken pipe at the bottom of the ocean, miles-long oil slicks, and threatened coastlines. The first thing they want to know is what the administration plans to do to plug the leak, clean up the oil, and mitigate the spill’s effects on the livelihoods of those affected. -- Mitch McConnell

I'd like Obama to order the Navy to field a bunch of it's own ROV's, to independently Monitor Bp's work and to monitor seabed integrity and look for leaks. I read somewhere there are pipes (Manifold?)buried under the sand, maybe that is what Matt is talking about as a big leak? In any case it is CRAZY for the only 'Eye's' on location to be BP's.

Based on HO's interesting CHOPS posting from yesterday, I put together a tutorial on how accelerated rates can eventually leads to a Hubbert Peak.
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2010/06/hubbert-peak-in-five-easy-piece...
This is essentially a fresh perspective on how to derive Peak Oil.

What is so frustrating about this situation is that the oil companies all desperately want fast and efficient extraction, yet now that we have it we can't slow it down.

It seems simple to me, that if the rock around the well head is cracked, leaking, breaking down, etc, there is only one solution possible: relieve the pressure in the well by multiple other distant wells asap. The pressure in the well will not empty the whole oil field into the Gulf, but enough surely to extinguish life in the neighborhood.
Now we must drill drill drill.
The nuclear option is too far out to imagine, except if the Russians have good data on their work with it. However, such an explosion would also run very significant risks of opening the oil field to the sea above. It looks extremely bad indeed.
How long will it take americans (and their politicians) to wake up to the fact that climate change was going to be easy to live with compared to what we have now done with our addictions.

Watching CNN Anderson Cooper just a few minutes ago (10:15 PM in NY) - their White House correspondent, Ed Henry was commenting on today's meeting with BP and Obama. Amazing video of Hayward greeting colleagues just after the meeting as they were about to get in their vehicles - all smiles and slaps on the back for a job well done was the image. Hopefully someone has this recorded, it was a sight to behold.

It's notable that Kenneth Feinberg was chosen to head the relief fund. He won a lot of praise for his work on the 9/11 victims fund. He strikes me as being someone who is smart, honest, and fair, and I hope he will get some relief to the injured parties promptly.

Others wonder why the energy industry only spends a fraction of what the high-tech industry does on research and development -– and want to rapidly boost our investments in such research and development.

I remember visiting the R&D Labs in Naperville years ago. The semiconductor lab was pure lip service and no great research came out of it that I can recall.

Today is the First Day of Flange-Gate

In his briefing today, Coast Guard Admiral Allen said that the response plan now includes "unbolting the flange" (on top of the blowout preventer) to connect a new cap to capture the oil completely!

Weeks ago, the excuse given by BP as to why oil would continue to leak around the containment cap, was because the connection could not be sealed since the pipe was bent and there was no flange to connect to. This is unbelievable. If the first thing they did had been to unbolt that flange, and connect a valve and new riser, this could have been all over.

No one ever mentioned the obvious: Clamp-on Sonar Meters

The only thing an accurate flow meter can do now is to benefit the Gulf community by accurately measuring the legitimate fines and royalties due. BP is already facing up to $10 billion in fines in mid-June from violations of the Clean Water Act, as much as $4,300 per barrel leaked into US navigable waters, before any costs of remediation, rehabilitation, restoration, or compensation.

There is even a product video that shows how the products actually work in the real world, delivered all around the world.

Deep Sea, Calibration-Free, Clamp-on Sonar Oil Flow Metering – The Movie

CiDRA is the company mentioned in the August '08 BP Frontiers publication that developed the clamp-on sonar metering technology with BP two years ago:

CiDRA

CiDRA Oil & Gas is now Expro Meters:

Expro Group

They can be clamped on to pipes of up to 0.9 m in diameter. The riser is only 23 inches OD. There is still plenty of pipe to clamp on to, Tony.

I heard Mike Malloy mention TOD on his talk show tonight...he was talking about an article on TOD by Sharon Astyk (I think) concerning down-hole fracturing/damage at DWH I pulled into my driveway and didn't hear the rest...

Good job TOD getting air time! I have emailed several radio shows to bring TOD to their attention, and I bet a lot of others have done the same.

If you want TOD's message to reach a wider audience, contact the various radio, TV, and newspaper and Internet media shows and publicize TOD...

Bedtime thought:

"Congressional hearings provide a unique mix of mannered formalism and absurd grandstanding that are ideally suited to operatic adaptation." — Melissa Dumphy

This has been out there a while today but it's worth reading if you haven't already. It won't be news to most folks here but it conveys the look and feel of SNAFU pretty well.

Slippery Start: U.S. Response to Spill Falters
Officials Changed Their Minds on Key Moves, and Disagreements Flared Between Agencies; Boom Taken Away From Alabama

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870362770457529885181238321...

Thank you TOD for keeping uptodate on this very tragic situation. It looks like BP may need to think differently.

This is an idea that i had together with a friend of mine, thank you ROB!

The issue is that the well may collapse and the casing with it, meaning free flow of gas and oil from the seabed into the water.

Ok, so what you need is something large that can capture this free flow. What is large and has systems for crude oil? A crude oil carrier. Take a vlcc, cut a hole in the no 4 cargo tank, and sink it on top of the wellhead.
You will now have crude and gas flowing into a tank with a hole in the bottom and filled with seawater.

There are several crude oil carriers around, single hull that BP has on charter and can sacrifice. The water will fill up in the tank and push the water out due to difference in density. The weight of the vessel will restrain the vessel from floating up, driven by the bouancy from the crude vs water. Open up the cargo valves and flow the crude through the midship manifold and up to the surface. Last resort, but it should work, once you mange to get the vlcc in place. They managed to bring the Kursk up tp the surface in the north sea, filled with nuclear waste. This is easier...gravity does it for you.

---Joerund---

NY Times: With Criminal Charges for Oil Spill, Costs to BP Could Soar

Very detailed article of possible criminal charges v. BP.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/us/17liability.html?hp

We will see what Congress brings forth.

OMG. That puts us beyond help.

Official estimates on BP disaster oil flow rate gradually reveal the truth; now raised to 35,000-60,000 barrels/day: http://bit.ly/BP3560
Clean Water Act fine for BP is $4,300 per barrel for gross negligence (http://bit.ly/4300fine). At new flow estimate, that's $ 150-260 million/day

Dumber than a fence post is an accurate description, if I may borrow it from oldfarmermac. Does anyone follow the logic? I think the fumes from all of the oil pac money he gets in contributions have taken a toll.
___________________

Miss gov.: $20B escrow by BP might hurt, not help

By EMILY WAGSTER PETTUS (AP) – 5 hours ago

JACKSON, Miss. — Mississippi's governor said Wednesday he's not sure the federal government should have made BP put $20 billion into escrow to compensate victims of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill because the company needs it to drill more wells and make money so it can pay up.

President Barack Obama insisted BP set the money aside, and the company agreed to put $5 billion a year into the fund for the next four years.

"If they take a huge amount of money and put it in an escrow account so they can't use it to drill oil wells and produce revenue, are they going to be able to pay us?" Gov. Haley Barbour told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Wednesday.

Millions of gallons of oil have gushed into the Gulf since a BP well ruptured eight weeks ago off the Louisiana coast.

"We need them to generate revenue to be able to pay us," said Barbour, a Republican. "I worry that this escrow account reduces the chance of that rather than increasing the chances of that."

Barbour said he has "no objection" to Obama's decision to appoint former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus to develop a long-term Gulf Coast Restoration Plan. Obama said BP will pay for the plan, and Mabus is to work with local communities to develop it.

"If this is really what it sounded like — that is, the federal government is going to make a long-term plan for the gulf states — then it's a terrible idea," Barbour said. "Mississippians will decide about Mississippi's future."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hrqKnOqRzjl7TFo58fG4KO...

Now, for around 50 days or so, we have been making on an industrial scale, what amounts to weed killer , at the bottom the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
No one in any biology lab anywhere ever asked the question , " What happens to the Gulf when you install a herbicide factory at the mouth of the Mississippi in 5,000 feet of water ? And you don't build an off switch ."

GULF SHORES, Ala. — Dolphins and sharks are showing up in surprisingly shallow water just off the Florida coast. Mullets, crabs, rays and small fish congregate by the thousands off an Alabama pier. Birds covered in oil are crawling deep into marshes, never to be seen again.

Marine scientists studying the effects of the BP disaster are seeing some strange phenomena.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/16/oil-spill-forces-animals-_n_615...

I"ve been away a couple days, and haven't actually looked at the underwater cams, but i was clicking around news sites earlier...and clicked on the live feed from cnn http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream/3&hpt=T1 Been a while since I've seen it look that explosive.

A question for the tech guys on here that i don't think has been explained previously.

With regard to the relief wells how do you run the casing strings? I can understand that when drilling you can 'curve' the drill bit but how do you lower a casing string down a curved hole? Also how does this affect the seal between the strings. Are the sealing mechanisms designed with a degree of tolerance to account for the presumably angled seating of the string?

Thanks

Another techie question: did the diamond saw work?

Until recently I thought that the diamond saw cutting the riser from the top of the BOP had jammed, so shears were used to make the cut.

However I saw somewhere else that the shears were used simply to grasp & lift the kinked riser to relive pressure on the diamond saw, so that it could continue its work.

Sooo ... was the riser cut or sheared from the BOP at the end of the day?

Found this;

"The drilling of two relief wells, “which we believe represents the ultimate solution to stopping the flow of oil and gas from the well,” has reached depths of 15,226 feet and 9,778 feet, respectively, he says, but they are not expected to be completed until August."

on this site http://news.gnom.es/news/bp-ceo-we-cannot-guarantee-outcome talking about the hearings tonight but haven't seen those numbers reflecting drilling progress anywhere else, including the BP site so if there's a BP PR dolly scanning this get it fixed - markets shouldn't be getting updates from obscure news sites on the web.

Dougr's comment on a previous thread has made it to Mother Jones:

http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/06/worst-already-true-BP-well-now-unstoppable?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20motherjones%2FTheBlueMarble%20(Mother%20Jones%20|%20The%20Blue%20Marble)

My understanding of the situation is that the pipe below the seafloor is compromised and that the oil can only be contained. Capping the well would cause leaks in the seafloor around the pipe and according to an article I just read in Mother Jones flow would increase to 150 000 barrels day.

This is ridiculous, if the pipe is compromised capping the well would cause leaks in the seafloor I'll agree but total flow would be reduced because there would be more resistance along the path and flow would be constricted. Cutting the pipe increased flow by 20% because resistance to flow was decreased. Leaks in the seafloor would be limited to the pipe casing area only.

The pipe should be capped but in a way no one can accept because it is too simple. Nobody in the oil industry would think or propose the idea I am about to present because tunnel vision will not allow it. Most people won't accept it because it is an idea a naive child might propose. By false logic most people will dismiss it as childish.

If you understand electric circuits you might be able to comprehend what I am about to present. To those of you I'll give a hint. Increase circuit impedance so flow becomes negligible.

The rest of you still require preparation so I'll ask you to ponder a scenario.

What would happen if a bucket brigade of ships sequentially sailed over the well and each dumped 1000 tons of sandbags over the well. Use enough ships and over the course of a week and a layer of sandbags is over the well site 150 feet deep. If the sandbags supply runs thin use old cars, gravel, boulders, scrap metal, chunks of concrete. Anything with a specific gravity significantly greater than seawater.

What would the seabed look like when you are done?

The answer is that oil and gas will be leaking out of a pyramid of fill but at a reduced rate. The fact that the pipe is compromised won't matter because you have covered over the entire leak zone because it is confined to a small area around the pipe.

Extend the process for another week and then what will the site look like?

A larger pyramid of fill will cover the well site and no oil or gas will be leaking out at all.

The answer is so simple a cave man could do it.

Hubris will prevent this solution from being considered. It won't work you'll say. Ok tell me why.

Maybe you will say that if it would work they would already be doing it. The problem with that logic is that they are saying the same thing you are.

BP is a huge bureaucracy, Obama apparently is no better. Ever meet a bureaucracy as smart as you are?

Everything that has been tried has paralleled the IXTOC disaster right down the line. It did not work then and it can't work now. Think outside the box, I hate the phrase but I have to use it. Think like a cave man instead of just acting like one. Put high tech aside, think low tech.

If you think I'm curt with all of you it's because time is a factor. I need you guys to act fast if you wanna get out of this. Don't think do. Every second you think another barrel of oil leaks out.

So pretty please with sugar on it.

BURY THE WELL

If you don't think it will work write an explanation that would pass muster by a freshman college physics professor and post it. Anything else is just your reptilian brain taking an easy way out. Put up or shut up.

Cracks Show BP Was Battling Gulf Well as Early as February

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-17/bp-struggled-with-cracks-in...

BP Plc was struggling to seal cracks in its Macondo well as far back as February, more than two months before an explosion killed 11 and spewed oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

It took 10 days to plug the first cracks, according to reports BP filed with the Minerals Management Service that were later delivered to congressional investigators. Cracks in the surrounding rock continued to complicate the drilling operation during the ensuing weeks. Left unsealed, they can allow explosive natural gas to rush up the shaft.

“Once they realized they had oil down there, all the decisions they made were designed to get that oil at the lowest cost,” said Peter Galvin of the Center for Biological Diversity, which has been working with congressional investigators probing the disaster. “It’s been a doomed voyage from the beginning.”

Hey you environmental types - How about using aerators to increase the oxygen level in the contaminated water. A higher level of oxygen will help decompose the oil through oxidation, promote the growth of oil-consuming bacteria, and provide more oxygen for marine life. Aeration of sewage lagoons promotes digestion of oily substances in wastewater. On a larger scale, it could do the same for the oil-contaminated waters. These aerators could be maybe even be powered by natural gas flowing from the wells. Granted, used on the gulf as a whole, this would be a little bit like trying to put out a house fire with a squirt gun, but in contaminated marshes and other areas of high oil concentration, it could be beneficial and is a process that could run for years, providing on-going remediation.

Posted at Zero Hedge

Oil Spill Conflict of Interest: Matt Simmons Is Shorting At Least 8,000 BP Shares
Submitted by Static Chaos on 06/16/2010 21:13 -0500

After busy making outrageous comments regarding BP and the Gulf oil spill as recent as last evening, Matt Simmons abruptly announced today that he would retire from the board of Simmons & Co.--the company he founded in 1974--effective June 30.

Meanwhile, Simmons & Co. also issued a statement in an apparent attempt to distance itself from its founder. As Houston Business Journal reports:

"..on June 14, [Simmons & Co] issued a statement dated May 12 in which [CEO Mike Frazier] distanced himself from the founder, saying that the former chairman’s views were not those of Simmons & Co. Frazier referred to Simmons' comments related to the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion and the implications for the industry and the individual companies."
You might recall in a Bloomberg interview on May 28, Matt Simmons endorsed the nuclear option as the only viable solution for the oil spill. Later on, BP shares slid to a 14-year low, around the same time Fortune magazine (on June 9) quoted Simmons as saying BP had a month before it would file for bankruptcy. As recent as last evening in a CNBC interview (at around 6-minute mark) Simmons also intimated that the Gulf oil leak was at 120,000 bpd, instead of the official estimate of 60,000 bpd.

Being a devil's advocate, my suspicion only grew each day when Simmons seemed to have become increasingly "passionate" about preaching the worst possible outcome and solution (a nuke bomb? come on!) to this unprecedented disaster.

Well, say it isn't so, but according to Barron's,

"...Simmons has a 4,000-share short sale on BP that he picked up when the stock hit $37. That’s in addition to a prior 4,000-share short sale he made at $48 a couple weeks prior. “It’s going to zero,” he says of BP stock. Mind you, Simmons has an interest and a deep investment in moving beyond fossil fuels."
The Barron's article went on to note that Simmon's Ocean Energy Institute, a renewable energy think-tank and venture capital fund he started in 2007, is involved in a project to develop off-shore wind power facilities and other alternative energies.

If Barron's assertion is true, it would appear that Simmons, an energy industry veteran and expert on "peak oil", could have had a serious conflict of interest when he went onto so many TV and magazine interviews talking his book about BP and the Gulf oil spill.

From that perspective, his remarks would seem irresponsible and only added to the existing despair and chaos, which is nothing the nation, particularly the Gulf Coast residents, need right now.

One has to wonder if this potentially unethical and maybe illegal act could have been easily deterred if only the media, instead of dashing to a seeminly sensational headline, would take a minute to require a disclosure before putting Simmons on TV and quoting him??

Saw this in today's Wall Street Journal in an editorial about the drilling ban, and how the drilling experts were speaking out against the drilling moratorium that they supposedly peer reviewed (but didn't).

From http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870419800457531103337146693...

All of this matters because it offers proof the moratorium was driven by politics, not safety. The drilling ban was not reviewed by experts, and was not necessary to satisfy most of the safety recommendations in Mr. Salazar's report. It was authored by political actors so Mr. Obama could look tough. A cynic might argue the ban was only added after review precisely because the Administration knew experts would refuse to endorse it.

A big reason why those experts would have balked is because they recognize that the moratorium is indeed a threat to safety. Mr. Arnold offers at least four reasons why.

The ban requires oil companies to abandon uncompleted wells. The process of discontinuing a well, and then later re-entering it, introduces unnecessary risk. He notes BP was in the process of abandoning its well when the blowout happened.

The ban is going to push drilling rigs to take jobs in other countries. "The ones that go first will be the newest, biggest, safest rigs, because they are most in demand. The ones that go last and come back first are the ones that aren't as modern," says Mr. Arnold.

The indeterminate nature of this ban will encourage experienced crew members to seek other lines of work—perhaps permanently. Restarting after a ban will bring with it a "greater mix of new people who will need to be trained." The BP event is already pointing, in part, to human error, and the risk of that will increase with a less experienced crew base. Finally, a ban will result in more oil being imported on tankers, which are "more likely" to spill oil than local production.

All this is even before raising ban's economic consequences, which already threaten tens of thousands of jobs. This is why Louisiana politicians are now pleading with the Administration to back off a ban that is sending the Gulf's biggest industry to its grave.

"Mr. President, you were looking for someone's butt to kick," said Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph, recently. "You're kicking ours." The sooner the Administration climbs down from this pointless exercise, the better for a Gulf that needs real help.

Government actions often have unintended consequences. Making deepwater drilling less safe for political gain is probably one of them.

Here is the clip from CNN June 16 10:15pm with the caption:

"Did BP just pull one over on the White House?"

video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnVi155xfHw

image
http://i46.tinypic.com/95n1mo.jpg

Implications galore:

Interior inspector general expected to fault oil spill probe

By Juliet Eilperin
Thursday, June 17, 2010

Elected officials should consider imposing ethics rules on oil and gas companies that do business with the federal government, the Interior Department's acting inspector general plans to tell the House Natural Resources Committee on Thursday.

Mary L. Kendall will also tell the panel that the Minerals Management Agency, which oversees offshore oil drilling, is probing the BP oil spill in a "completely backwards" way and needs to have its culture revamped. The Washington Post obtained a copy of Kendall's prepared testimony late Wednesday....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/16/AR201006...

Okay, Here are my thoughts on the presidents speech. He is a politician, I don't trust him. I don't care what party he is from. The fact of the matter is this. The oil disaster in the gulf is a "consequence" of drilling for oil in 1 mile deep waters. That's a fact. Whether it happened last April or in the future it is what happens. The president says BP will pay for it, but I predict fast bankruptcy. Oil companies are basically a private enterprise providing a product for consumers. They are in business to do just that. That is a sad fact also. Most oil companies have killed and pillaged to get fossil fuels out of the ground for a century. That's a fact as well. Does Ecuador ring any bells? How about the 1.5 million tonnes of oil spilled during the gulf war? These are consequences of extracting fossil fuels. So the president vaguely mentions peak oil. Do they make any changes to counter that? Are troops home from a resource war in the middle east? No. Have they made any effort to conserve? No. Do they do any and everything to get re-elected? Yes. Will the government "really" do anything? No.
Here is how I see things. BP goes bankrupt. The economy starts to collapse in the south and taking the rest of us with. Perhaps a run on the market by everyone getting out while the getting is good. I would if I got screwed back in 2008 and had anything left in the market. Then the government will need to save their necks and jobs so they will bail out the south and anyone else in need yet, taking more tax money. Stimulus money needs to be paid back. That will have a profound effect on the economic model of growth that we all unfortunately live by. No growth, no cheap abundant energy spells disaster for everyone. Everyone at the Oil Drum knows the future implications of peak oil. This "consequence" perhaps just speeds up the down slope in the hubbert curve.
For the last 3 years I have been making changes in my life hopefully for the better. I ride a bicycle, motorized at that but at least I get 150 mpg with it. I still use a very small pickup for the bigger errands, but I guarantee I don't run out for no good reason. I moved to a farm and raise my own food. Alot more as well....

Mr. President. How about stepping out of the way for those of us who really have made an effort to change. How about some real honesty about the way we depend on gas and oil for our daily lives? How about a re-vamping of how we make alternative fuels like ethanol? Stop using corn as a feedstock and less fossil fuels to produce ethanol? Lets "really" make some changes for the future in a more efficient and sustainable way. If the government can't be honest, and can only make things worse by involvement, why bother? Succession from the union for my state looks like a better option for the people in my state more and more everyday. Very sad that that statement is said, but the federal government just is becoming more irrelevant as everyday goes by.

God bless and good luck.

BP Hires Army of Washington Fixers to Manage Oil-Spill Outrage

Worth reading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1vUSTj0mjVo&pos=9

A bit of fact checking is found here:

FACT CHECK: Obama left blanks in oil spill speech
By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press Writer Calvin Woodward, Associated Press Writer Wed Jun 16, 6:19 am ET

WASHINGTON – In assuring Americans that BP won't control the compensation fund for Gulf oil spill recovery, President Barack Obama failed to mention that the government won't control it, either.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100616/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_spill_obama_fact_...