What an amazing post!

My husband and I have been considering a move back East from where we are now -- semi-rural/suburban northern WA state. We now live along the water and it is definitely beautiful, but we are both old city slickers and have real differences in how we operate culturally. We have been here about 8 years and we burrowed into the community early on -- got involved in ecological issues and related politics. It felt good but got more and more frustrating as the local populace became more and more resistant to implementing ecological changes necessary to protect our Bay (one of the few remaining on the West coast that you can safely do recreational shellfishing).

Your post gives us some parameters to think about. Right now, moving is out of the question... there are many homes already for sale and are not forced to do so -- though it is worrying for the future -- will we be able to get out when we want to...

Your statement about being in a community with similar values is extremely important... and that of course does not mean in a community exactly like oneself...but do you feel like you can generally be there for your neighbors and they for you? For some of our neighbors, outsiders like ourselves, yes. For others, not so sure...

Thanks again...wish that I was more coherent in my thoughts. Its a very tough decision.

Rule Number One for dealing with the Global Crisis must be "everything is on the table." Agreed.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of the sheep are heavily invested in their illusions about reality, which is only a problem because they then fail to recognize the folly of their mistaken assumptions about how the future will unfold.

"Think hard about what you are choosing" is great advice, but probably not realistically achievable for most since they probably have little awareness of the potential catastrophic consequences of melting down by foolishly attempting to adapt in place.

While family considerations, cultural issues, minority discrimination and so forth are all important, in my opinion the two most important criteria to use to evaluate the wisdom of an attempt to adapt in place must be:

1) the future availability of food;
2) the future availability of transportation fuels

The GulfSpill should give us a clue. Do we see hundreds of thousands or millions of people who have now decided to park their SUVs? Nope. They don't seem to connect the GulfSpill consequences directly to their lives and seem to fail to understand that it is acting as an accelerant to bring on the effects of the decline in net energy that is driving the Global Crisis.

In my opinion, "success" in the Post-Peak-Oil-world will require a new form of "vision" that will balance the ability to "see" life success strategies available on the local scale with the simultaneous monitoring of the global situation as related to the deleveraging of the complexity of civilization as embodied in relationships between nations and between corporations and their customers.

Those of us whose brains are wired in a way that promotes decisionmaking about geographical relationships in a matrix of political and cultural complexity are in the best position to successfully adapt, whether by remaining in place or migrating towards higher success strategies.

I'm now in my 29th year of living with an awareness of Peak Oil and have achieved a degree of success in international lifestyle that affords me many options because of my willingness to jettison any old ideas that don't work. McMansion-porno, automobile-porno and related consumer-lifestyle weak strategies are ending, which is fine with me since nothing beats a good day surfing.

The only thing worse than foolishly attempting to adapt in place is the unfortunate fact that millions of people still don't have a clue that the American experiment is fundamentally flawed due to the disconnect between the ponzi-finance economic system and the fundamental truth that civilization is dependent upon flows of energy and resources, which are both now in jeopardy.

I routinely encounter naysayers who are heavily invested in American-National-Pride-pandering and claim that since "people all over the world are trying to get to the US" that the US lifestyle-strategy makes sense. It doesn't. I sometimes attempt to explain that I don't think most people would even bother trying to migrate to the US anymore if they simply understood Peak Oil and that the consequences of the decline in Net Energy will be worst for the US merely because the US has the most unfavorable energy profile from the perspective that we use about 25% of the daily consumption of oil.

Although it seems to be reasonable that there remains a possibility that pulling together all technologies and strategies could deliver a "bridge to the future" and avoid an out-of-control-collapse, it would be foolish to ignore the risk of such and instead blindly assume that some managed power-down will progress in an orderly fashion. It already isn't. Move Now!, might be pretty good advice. I already did and now have the luxury of waiting to deftly step off the ship as she slips below the waves, if that is what happens. Deal with reality or it will deal with you.

This abridged version left out my favorite line from the original:

"If you bought in a gated community full of self-centered rich assholes, and now you regret it because they are pissed about your garden, sometimes, if you can, living somewhere else might be nicer."
http://energybulletin.net/node/52992

You can run but you can't hide.
(spoken by the heavyweight champion Joe Louis, just before his 1946 rematch victory over the lighter, faster Billy Conn)

The question I have is; How bad have things gotten and how long you can hold on. If things get to the point where there are mass migrations occuring I doubt that there will be many foreclosures happening. If the banks are still functional it may be tough to find the personnel willing to enforce a foreclosure on folk's homes. Further, there's a point where the banks will be unable to withstand all of this bad paper and useless real property. There will be far too many. So there will come a time when credit defaults are so universal that foreclosing on some poor bloke's home will be fruitless. Whatever Govt. exists will find it necessary to halt foreclosures. The best place for a severely disgruntled populace is in their homes.

Smaller communities will resist foreclosures on their citizens and place moratoriums on big banks seizing productive properties, especially farming communities. If the local Sheriff's Dept won't enforce the will of the banks, I doubt the Feds are going to send in the National Guard to take Joe Farmer's home. (I have it from a good source that local Sheriffs are even now dragging their feet when it comes to debt collections, stalling and buying their folks time.) At some point it will be crazy for local communities to allow the folks that are growing their food or keeping their power/water on to be put on the street. This why I agree with the idea of localization in a smaller, mostly self-sufficient community.

The idea of selling a home will be moot. Why buy a home when you can pick an abandoned property and squat. Paying the mortgage will be your ability to defend your chosen property, maintaining a "superior claim". Nothing will sell (My community is there, now. Foreclosures far outnumber sales. Most all deed transfers are the result of foreclosure.)

Like I said, if you are where you plan to stay, it's a question of how bad things get and how long you can hold on.

If you leave your people you will not be able to go back.
Time will close the gate behind you.

Unless you've already got some long-planned move in motion, it might be too late now to make any really big changes. Better to stay where you know people and have history, connections and knowledge. I don't think there will be any place to really 'hide'.

Jim Kunstler has made some broad generalizations about various regions of the USA and how they might fare during his 'Long Emergency'. Maybe so, but being a real 'local' might well trump an awful lot of regional disadvantages.

I've been spending the better part of the past five years trying to prepare, and am really just starting to scratch the surface. Building a whole new lifestyle, infrastructure and knowledge base from the ground up is no small thing. Just talking or reading about change won't make it happen. It's just the first step.

The one item we'll all need the most will be a willingness to get along with a whole lot less of everything we've been used to, and a whole lot more of what we're not.

Prepare to share. Plan on being skinny, with dirty fingernails and shabby clothes.

Forget your notions of a fortress. If you have so much you can share, those you share with will be better protection than a sniper rifle.

Don't worry about entertainment. You'll be too tired to play with your mind. The lifestyle will be middle ages serf.

Not that bad really, after the cold turkey pangs subside. Beans, rice, grubs, greens is a healthy diet.

If you want to stock up, MRE's last for ten years in a cool place. Taste much better than starvation.

I am staying in place and have been preparing for Peak Oil for 3 years now...attached is one of my short videos showing what people can do to prepare...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHmXhgBhtWk

MrEnergyCzar

What an interesting article. At such a great site - as I've been repeating like a mantra from day 1 here - not very long ago.

Anyway, as someone who has moved many times - across the country - from country to country - this post prompts so many thoughts it's hard to know where to start except by paring them down to a very few.

1. I agree with one poster above me who says that if you leave, you've left a circle you can never really return to. That's true of friends from jobs (I've found) or other mini-places you may decide you need to move on from. And so as a psychologist I'd add one more thing related to this. If you are a person who can say "good-bye" then it's easier to move. And if you are a person who gets very attached, then you need to keep that in mind too. On the other hand, if you stay in one place, "others" may move and so change is really inevitable. And change that you choose is easier to handle than change that is foisted upon you.

2. We're in the process of making some changes - while staying in place. Even though both of us might have chosen differently - had we had our 'druthers, we're at an age when we realize a move is more effort than it's worth it (to us). So instead, we're making changes in our home (just a few) and our yard. Especially trying to make the yard more of a refuge, a place that we might like to travel to - except we've long ago concluded there's no better hotel than home or restaurant than home or camp site than right here - especially if we go ahead and move some trees and bushes "in" while having weedy "trees" and "bushes" moved "out".

3. A few months ago I lost an elderly parent. And another will be 93 next month. One thing I've learned - over the past 10 years - is that very elderly people can get "stuck" in a house. When what they need is another level of care. So one move I know I'll ultimately make and that is to a nearby place - where they have a continuum of care, from individual apartments to assisted living, and if needed, to nursing care. That may not be what many would choose. But we don't have family to count on to care for us - and honestly I would not burden a family member with that, after enduring such a sense of responsibility coupled with helplessness, when my elderly parents insisted on their "independence" - though it became increasingly clear that "no way were they capable of doing that any longer!" This I concluded: I will not get stuck in a house. And I will move out before it's too late! I already know the place. And though some may view that decision as "caving in" I see it as being realistic, letting go of some so-called "independence" to share heating costs, transportation costs, shared gardens, other shared spaces - while retaining a lot of privacy, as much as I want. It's a small facility, only 2 stories. All interconnected. Very caring (I know this already - my mother died there). Intimate and not institutional.

So those are my three thoughts. Among many.

Grateful to be here! This is move too. Amen to that!

Thank you Sharon for the interesting post.

We live in a valley 6 miles north of Reno. We hit all the “stay in place” points except climate. This is as bad but in different ways as your rocky plot in New York. There are over 300,000 people in the general area with a natural lively hood for about 3000. It is my idea that the first or second winter, 297,000 will leave for California while I-80 is usable and still a world better than the Donner Party had it in 1846-7.

Our problem is water, soil and climate. We have a good well and solar power to run it. The soil is alkali with a hard pan down a ways. We are working to make the soil rich and productive. That part is coming along OK. Climate is always a problem in the high desert. We can get a frost most any month. We have lived here for over 20 years so we are pretty used to covering up things if it looks bad. OTOH we can have beautiful weather a week or two at a time right up till December.

As I see it, our biggest problem will be replacement parts for whatever might break. I am a woodworker and I have a full set of power and hand tools. For a number of years the solar powered golf cart will power the tools but after that it will be handsaw, plane, chisel and adz. Our children (and grand children) live a few miles away but it is obvious this place will be the family home of the future. At 77 and 71, though we are each in good shape, we probably won’t move.

There are a lot of places I would rather be when TSHTF but that is not to be so we are making the best of what we have and not migrate like most around here will do.

I think Sharon's on the right track but the very fact that she suggests eight - eight! - different categories of people that, in her opinion, should consider moving points to how complicated this question is. No easy, one-size-fits all answers.

Here are my own thoughts generally speaking when it comes to regions in NA:
-I wouldn't want to live in or establish roots in NYC or D.C. They have done well and are certainly now doing well thanks to finance as well as the federal government/Pentagon complex, but if it is true that the American Empire will decline along with the oil due to decreasing marginal returns on complexity, then both these areas have a long way to fall. If NYC loses Wall Street or D.C. loses the federal government, that's the equivalent of Detroit losing auto manufacturing. Scary stuff. Although I would think in the end NYC would fare better as it has long been a very important and strategic piece of real estate, and would probably remain a vital port city.
-I happen to favor Western Canada, the PNW, and the Upper Midwest above other areas - variety of reasons: oil sands, fresh water availability, hydroelectricity, biofuels, agricultural land relative to population, culture, etc. And other than flooding in the Midwest I can't visualize how AGW would negatively impact these areas.

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the traditional South, although it may just be a personal bias. When there's no more NASCAR and it's too expensive to make college football or hunting trips on the weekend, somehow I don't think rednecks are going to take kindly to the situation.

While these are great suggestions for people relocating, it saddens me that we're placing the burden on families to fix systemic issues of national policy.

We need a set of New Deal-like programs, adjusted for the needs of the time. Both to tackle the problems and provide employment for people that's useful instead of having a mad scramble of people moving to where things might be least-worst.

I'm thinking things like a Civilian Conservation Corps for mass transit projects, etc etc problem by problem, like in the New Deal.

IMO 30 years of rhetorical attacks on the ability of government to solve problems has crippled our best hope for solving problems systemically.

People attempting to relocate themselved in the Great Depression and from the Dust Bowl - how well was that working prior to the New Deal..?

A few notes based upon the experience of someone who has permanently relocated:

I was born, grew up, and spent much of my early adult years in Indiana. About 14 years ago my wife got an offer for a full-time tenure track faculty position at a small private college in the mountains of Western North Carolina, so we moved here.

Employment: Unless you are in the fortunate position of not needing to work for a living, or of earning your income from something that is truly location-independent, then earning a living is going to be a very big issue. We couldn't have made this move unless one of us had a relatively secure full-time job in hand. Even with that, it has been a challenge. It took me almost ten years before I finally established myself in a secure, good-paying full-time job. I am both highly educated and multi-talented, so there are quite a few types of jobs that I could do. Nevertheless, it was still difficult, and I had to piece together several poor-ly paying part-time things for quite a few years until I was finally able to land the job I needed. If my resume did not have both the breadth and depth that it had, though, I might still be looking. On the other hand, if we had made our relocation contingent upon our both finding employment in the same place and at the same time, we'd probably still be stuck in Indiana, because that is just about impossible to pull off. Thus, one of the biggest items of advice that I can offer is to be realistic about your employment situation, be flexible and able to compete for and work in a variety of jobs, and be able to live for years, if need be with less than two full-time paychecks (if you are a couple, that is). For those of you who are single and don't have a partner to rely upon, having employment already in hand before moving is even more critical.

Adapting to a different place: There are places around the US that I would not have considered an improvement over what we left in Indiana. Indeed, there are some places around this country in which I hope to never have the misfortune to step foot. That, fortunately, was not at all the case with WNC. We were - and still are - thrilled to live here. There is a lot to like about this area: the climate, the scenery, the natural environment and biodiversity, cultural attractions, quality health care. . . the list goes on and on. It wasn't hard at all to adjust to a new area, but there were a few things. We now live in bear country; black bears are not the threat that grizzlys are out west, but you still need to be alert to the possibility that they might be out there and take some reasonable precautions. Some fools move down here and are clueless - there was a story in the Asheville paper just the other day about someone who left their toy dog out and it was eaten by a bear. We also need to be mindful of the fact that mountain valleys make good funnels, and that flooding is a fact of life in mountainous regions to which everyone must adjust. We need to be prepared for storms that could down power lines and leave us without electricity for days. My advice to those who are relocating is to familiarize yourself as much as you can to the new area, particularly its climate, ecology, and especially any natural hazards to which it might be prone. Adaptation to the local habitat is a biological imperative, just because you are a human doesn't make you exempt.

Social integration: Many of you have been discussing this, some with considerable fear and concern. Of course, places differ, even within regions. There are places here in the Southern Appalacians that are very isolated and not at all open and welcoming to outsiders.On the other hand, it is not that way everywhere around here. In Asheville and some of the smaller towns surrounding it - especially some of the small college towns - people from outside have been moving in more or less continuously for over a century now. Of course there are still plenty of old-time mountain folk around, and some people who have recently moved in from outside might not find it easy to break through and strike up a friendship with them. On the other hand, there are plenty of other people around here who have moved here from elsewhere, or their parents did. That makes a very big difference. Because there are so many other people around here from elsewhere, we have not found it very difficult to integrate ourselves in the local community. After a little more than a dozen years, we have developed a pretty good circle of friends and acquaintances, and feel we really have developed roots now in our local community. In our case, it helps too that we do live in a small town. Things are more closely knit here, and since the outsider/insider thing is not so much of a barrier to overcome, not having that large city anonymity to deal with has been helpful. My advice, therefore, is to try to find a small college town as your destination if at all possible. That will be your best bet for enjoying the advantages of small town life, and also finding numerous fellow outsiders with whom you can connect.

Language: I am going to elaborate a little more on the previous paragraph by addressing something that is particularly noticeable to some people relocating to another area, and that makes them particularly noticeable to those already there: language, specifically regional accent. The US is a linguistically diverse nation, more so than many people realize. In addition to the three main divisions of northern, midlands, and southern speech patterns (it is more than just "accent", things like word choice and pronunciation and how you string the words together also counts), these are further subdivided extensively. Thus, there is no such thing as a single "southern accent"; rather, there are dozens of them. Quite a few people who are attuned to these differences can tell not only what state a person is from, but also from what part of that state. There are not just geographic differences, but also ethnic and socioeconomic ones. I am of the opinion (and by no means alone in this) that what is really behind a lot of these differences in speech patterns is really a matter of "fitting in" to one's particular group. Speaking in a pattern that is different from that of the group marks one as an outsider. Unfortunately, an outsider trying to talk like an insider usually doesn't cut it. When it comes to this kind of thing, most people's perceptions are pretty finely tuned, and it is easy for them to spot the phony. The only thing worse than being an outsider is an outsider trying to fake being an insider. Thus, if you are relocating to an area with different speech patterns, I do not recommend that you try to adapt your speech to mimic your new neighbors; that will just put them off. On the other hand, I do recommend that you do try to deliberately tone down your own former regional speech pattern, and cultivate something more mainstream, non-regional and neutral - something closer to the "Broadcast Standard US English" that one hears on the TV and radio news programs. People will at least be able to understand what you are saying, and for some reason it seems to be less grating on many people's ears than are non-local regional speech patterns.

My $0.02 worth, anyway. . .

I don't think I would try to adapt in place in an area that is likely to be the target of efforts to procure fossil fuels at any cost. A segment today on NPR's Fresh Air notes the momentous effects of natural gas oil shale drilling on communities, human health and the environment where it is occurring. For starters, water supply is affected, and not just on the land leased by its owner tto the gas companies for drilling. It is instructive to see what natural gas companies have been allowed to do:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127593937

An HBO documentary entitled "Gasland" airs on Monday night. Check the map linked to the Fresh Air story to see what areas in the U.S. are targeted for drilling. I don't think I'd want to live in a place where my water catches on fire because neighboring landowners leased their land to a gas company.

*I believe strongly that city, suburbs (most of them), and country all have a future - but the differences between them are likely to become more acute. If you aren't prepared to deal with those differences, you might consider moving.*

Where am I supposed to go, Mars?

But seriously, I enjoyed this thought provoking advisement as well as the reflective posts that echo thinking that must be common to many readers based on their life experiences. It touches on a phrase, "a literature of leaving" which was written in a National Geographic travel mag article recently. I prefer to think, given my own circumstances, of a "literature of staying," the other side of the coin, if you will. I thought Kenneth Graham's Dulce Domum chapter from The Wind in the Willows would be a fine example.

As I have stated here a time or two in the past, I plan on staying where I am now. It is the outer village life, though it is in a larger town/ city area of central Arkansas. When I think of a home, I have always felt walking into this backyard as a place of comfort. I have been here off and on for the past 33 years and I can still see areas that I have walked through over 30 years ago, even though they have changed since then.

I am trying to make the grounds of the yard support more than just one person, though over the time I once lived here as a teen, there have been 3 sheds added to the back yard spaces. Once long ago I raised more than I can right now, but with changes I feel that I'd be able to grow a lot more than I ever did before.

I also know where the wild things grow, and the slope of the land and other things that you might not get if you are a new person to the area. On this street alone we are the oldest member of the group of people living here. Having seen people grow up and move off, or die out. An area changes, but so do the people, this place has changed over the years.

Not everywhere will be the same, but even though weather has changed, the slope of the land has not, we still live on the downhill side of a small rise which is part of a larger valley whose floor is about 200 yards to the east of here, and the stream bed has been concreted into a channel ages ago. Hills almost on all sides in this area but subtle toward the east. It has been well protected from storms in the past.

Hope all you folks can find a nice place to settle, if not keep your head down.

Charles,
BioWebScape designs for a better fed and housed future.
Hugs from Arkansas.

I've had this gut feeling for decades....well before I ever heard of peak oil....that life down the road wasn't going to be the same as the life we were currently living. As a result, the place we bought in 1982, was selected due to several factors:
1. Large enough to insulate us somewhat from close neighbors.....75 mountain acres, much of it south facing ( good for solar power ) surrounded by National Forest land. End of a small, county road. And located in a small valley with only two road access points in or out, both of which could be controlled fairly easily if times required it.
2. Plenty of timber to build with and use as fuel. In 25 years, I haven't managed to keep up with tree growth, building house, barns, sheds and heating with wood. In fact, it's actually a lot of work to keep the woods beat back enough to have a few acres of pasture, garden, orchard, or it would return to forest.
3. Good water source, which is spring water, and located high enough to gravity feed our house. That has proved most benefical over the years when we have a power outage ( as long as 2 weeks with a bad winter storm ) and most of the neighbor are on wells that require electricity.

Those were the natural points. To that, we've added/built:

1. Well insulated/built house, things like 2x10 exterior walls, lot's of internal mass that resists swings in temps. Requires only a small woodstove to heat 2300sf, and almost no AC most years.
2. Pasture, garden, orchard, cows, hogs, chickens, catfish ponds, etc.
3. Greenhouse
4. Solar power
5. Root cellar
6. Small sawmill ( bandmill )
7. Workshop well stocked with all sorts of wood and metal working tools.

So, no, not moving anywhere. Owe nothing, pay almost no utilities ( last electric "bill" was a credit for $4.20 due to solar ), property taxes are low, neighbors are good...where would we go it got any better ?

Born in a different culture (Europe) with different values, I have often wondered why so many folks here in the US have this (unconscious) tendency to try to build themselves a "city on the hill" away from the larger society, this tendency to insulate themselves, their children, and their families from the rest of the world. This unconscious response to isolate oneself in a "secure capsule" of some sorts (tens of acres of secluded lands, a large car, a gated neighborhood) seems to shape many things here: The flight from the inner city to suburbs (fear of racial related crimes), the trend to SUVs and trucks (fear of other drivers), gated communities (fear of others, often locals when you move to a new area). The paradox is that some of this drive might be partly responsible for creating peak oil in the first place, no?