To me, the TK technique may be showing some indication of success.

It seems that the jetting from the broken riser, just in the last few minutes, is lighter in color and that the velocity is less intense.

I don't really comment at this site but I was curious about the junk shot. Is netting shot through too? It would seem that it could help catch and hold the "junk" helping to clog things up. This was actually my second idea. My first was looking at the graphics of the BOP and pipes going into it, it reminded me of a heart. In cardiac catheterizations, you can push a stent down the catheter with a wire. When you get it where you want it, you withdraw the catheter a little and the compressed stent springs open. It creates an open cylindrical mesh inline with the bloodflow. I would think you could make something similar for a BOP only with one end kept closed creating a cone or even a flattened skillet type configuration. These would let the gas-oil mixture pass through but would catch material from a junk shot helping to form a clog. Or have I missed something. Are there grates already built into the BOP. Thanks in advance for any responses.

Not sure if this video link has been posted (Matt Simmons & Co a few hours ago)...

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/05/prominent-oil-industry-ins...

Sure hope he's wrong.

Regards, Matt B

The plume nearest to camera, is that coming out of a new hole? I realise it depends on camera angles but looking at stills from yesterday and comparing marks on the pipe I can not see a plume in that location on the stills.

There are some things that simply don't make sense with this "live" video.

If that is mud coming out....where is it going?

How come we can see at all?

At least the barite will settle and there will be a lot of it. That view should be impossible!

Also, if that is in fact heavy weight mud coming out....the holes would be huge by now. I cannot understand why there's no abrasion/erosion! The holes are staying the same size.

This is BS!

I have been an avid oildrum follower for YEARS now. It does not look like its working to me. But the real tragedy to me is they had to go 5000 miles for crude in the first place. Thats why I make my own alcohol based fuel. So sad.

How effective is the mud as an oil dispersant?

When the top kill fails, as it looks like it will, maybe it makes more sense to inject dispersant through the BOP via the pipes they are using for the top kill.

Some consolidation, huh?

Looking at this I come to one conclusion. Were in a lot of trouble. How can you pressure mud down a pipe that is leaking like this. To me it looks like the leaks are going to get bigger and bigger!!! till something gives.

I logged onto the live feed just at the end of when they had the closeup. I didn't see anything that looked like "junk", but I did remark to myself that those holes/cracks in the pipe looked very small. Less than an inch gap but man... was that stuff jetting out of there. Wow.

Assuming what we're seeing is still mud (sure looks like it), I just don't understand how anyone can think that it is anywhere near being successful. That kind of pressure exiting those tiny holes can only mean to me that there relatively no pressure forcing anything back down the well.

I think the question being asked in the war room now is... how do we say it didn't work?

I think the only thing they can say is that they tried their best (which I do honestly think they did) but that the pressures involved were simply too great and the BOP/wellhead too badly damaged to allow for a successful "top kill" operation.

Then they'll go back to the Riser Insertion Tube and try to get as much as they can that way.

I tried to say this in another post when I suggested the holes at the kink don’t matter. This is the reverse but the same point I tried to make.

So what if the junk fills the holes in the riser kink. Won’t all the effluent just round the kink and come out where the insertion tube was?

Why can't they drill a shallow relief well targeted for the second casing shoe set up with the proper production facilities at the sea surface to handle the high flow rates of this well? At least the well would be "blowing out" into a tanker with a flare boom to burn the excess gas and capturing all of the well flow into a tanker or tankers. This way the flow would not be going into the ocean and they could put another BOP valve assembly on top of the damaged one until the real relief wells reach formation depth in a few months to establish circulation at depth and cement and kill the blowout. Just a thought and it looks like the existing leaks are getting eroded out with all of this heavy weight mud flowing through the holes.

I'm sure they have thought of this but have it low on the list because the instant they intersect the blowout wellbore they would have a blowout situation on their own in the shallow relief well. It might just work but would take a lot of John Wayne guts to pull it off. They would need a diverter setup away from the rig or even underwater to mitigate any dangers before they switch to the production facilities.

Yes that is tire, and yes there are a large number of new cracks in the riser kink at the top of the BOP.

Looks like it to me.

Man I have a bad feeling about this. If they keep screwing around with this somebody is going to get hurt,

as i understand it, the nuances of the muds properties are proprietary but it basically *is* just mud that has characteristics that allow it to stay viscous when in motion. beyond that i dont really know whats in it

Yes it is a clay / water mix, with additives like salts, polymers, etc. to give it improved properties like viscosity, stability, anti-corrosion.

There are some links in the previous comments thread. But starting at the Wikipedia page for "Drilling fluid" would be a good start. The water based mud which is (most likely) being used is various specific clays and water and barite (a barium compound) for weight.

A little bit earlier, during the first "close-up" I noticed a small piece of debris coming out of the jet that looked distinctly metallic. Very shiny, high contrast to the mud/riser. Are they using something metallic for the junk shot, or is this probable evidence of the erosion of the BOP/riser?

because pressure and momentum are not mutually exclusive......pressure or specifically pressure differential is the driving force (think voltage) ; oil and gas is the fluid that moves due to the pressure differential (think electrons) ; and momentum is the mass flow ...in the instantaneous time-frame it can be thought of as momentum but the correct tern is mass flow rate (think amperes)

and how they are related is called darcy's law ...you can wiki this

It takes three months and $100 million dollars to drill a relief well to the target depth of 18,000 feet. Nationalizing anything isn't going to help Mr Rube. If there wasn't oil and gas then there wouldn't be a tree on the planet. We would have burned them all for fuel long ago. They just need to slow this well down enough until the relief wells get to total depth and kill this blowout. If BP had followed the rules this would never have happened. Truly a screw up in my opinion. Cheap cement, no centralizers, ignoring warning signs, hurrying up, not circulating a wellbore volume before cementing, etc,. These are basics that would have prevented this from ever happening. Big Company cockiness and the drive to save money so you can drive your SUV cheaply to the movies. You have no concept of how difficult it is to provide gas for you. People are forgetting the 11 brave souls that lost their lives so you can drive to the movies.

Now back to the professional discussion here.

I concur. Emergency drilling operation needed on Macondo Reserve asap!!

If you really want to save the places God loves best, stop putting in your SUV too.

If you look straight up from the EW in NEWSHOUR, there is a little black spot. I believe that is a piece of "junk". Earlier they were showing a close up of it.

If they're going to put anything in there they should try a bunch of Big Macs into that pipe! Once those things go down that's probably the most sticky substance (with a hardening factor) that will clog the biggest pipes in the world. Haha LOL

Yes you are looking at the end of a pipe that is spewing oil out into the GOM. There are some of us that still have hope that these lying bastards are going to be able to do something that most expert commenters on this site say is impossible. but as long as we watch this we are not out in the street raising hell. They have already, this afternoon, alerted us to the next episode of this continuing saga. (This is getting like listening to Glen Beck.) Forgot what it was but i am sure many will tune in and watch as the pipe keeps flowing and the birds, fish, turtles, fisherman, mud flats, beaches, marshes, mudflats, etc. are destroyed. Hell, this is better than American Idol. Wonder what our ratings are?

I was thinking the same thing. If the TK fails use these lines to bring oil/gas up. Might need a hydraulic pump on the floor to push it up. It might reduce pressure on the damaged riser enough to replace it.

tuna -- you hit on THE problem: there is no valving to control the flow. And that's why I had little expectation of the top kill working: you can't pump mud or cement down a flowing well. I've been on drilling rigs a number of times when we had to go to kill mode. But the well was shut in and not flowing. In such a case you can pressure up on the well and force the oi/NG back down the hole. And at that point you can pump a heavy kill pill that would prevent the oil/NG from flowing back out of the rocks. But you have to have valves in place to stop the flow for a kill to work. And hey don't have that. At best they have a leaking valve that's restricting flow some.

I understand that for land wells the rams can be closed with a wrench but underwater the little bots can't generate enough torque to operate mechanical ones. Electric? I don't know - seems a harsh environment for a high torque electric drive, but maybe it's possible. At any rate this one is all hydraulic with redundant systems... but it didn't work.

These ROVs have over 200 hydraulic horsepower, basically they are portable hydraulic power units with cameras. They can also supply about 150 kw of 3 phase electric power at 480 volts (or 36,000 volts if you prefer) if necessary but hydraulics are usually much superior to electrics for underwater tooling.

So they have all the power you could want to operate either hydraulic or mechanical systems.

I think the reason the BOPs for deep well and deep water applications do not have mechanically operated rams is that in their normal operating mode they need to supply close to a 2,000,000 pound force and do so very quickly to shear the drill pipe. I'm not sure there is any threaded system that can do that and fit into the space required.

The systems do allow the ROVs to hydraulically override the rams and that was what they were attempting to do for about the first week to 10 days after the rig sank.

You can set a removable plug in the well, and come back after the storm passes.

Here is my question: Why didn't they use an explosive charge to fully cut the riser, have either another BOP or even a valve on hand than is designed to slide down on the pipe to be either clamped to the pipe so that the flow could be stopped similar to a method used in conventional blow outs? I happen to be an engineer and and fully versed in fluids and structures and heard this discussion with a Petroleum engineer who has worked in this field for nearly 3 decades who suggested the same thing. Maybe the KISS principles just died and building a huge box without thinking about the fluid dynamics and thermodynamics of fluids in a high pressure atmosphere with very low temperatures is the next best thing.

yes ...thats the ticking time bomb here

bad weather ....BP will set a plug and move away till the weather system passes and then come back and drill out the plug and continue drilling.....its pretty standard

My hope is that they actually ran through the fluid dynamics model in their very sophisticated computer software before they did anything. I am an engineer very well versed in fluids and structures and I feel very certain that there was a simple solution to this but I never heard it discussed except by one petroleum engineer. Oh well why follow KISS.

My hope is that they actually ran through the fluid dynamics model in their very sophisticated computer software before they did anything. I am an engineer very well versed in fluids and structures and I feel very certain that there was a simple solution to this but I never heard it discussed except by one petroleum engineer. Oh well why follow KISS.

My hope is that they actually ran through the fluid dynamics model in their very sophisticated computer software before they did anything. I am an engineer very well versed in fluids and structures and I feel very certain that there was a simple solution to this but I never heard it discussed except by one petroleum engineer. Oh well why follow KISS.

One of the things I have learnt about the industry is a that they have a habit of using trivialising names for procedures and techniques. The "junk shot" being one of them. The name suggests a poorly thought out, grasping at straws, sort of idea. The reality it seems is actually much more scientific. The materials used in the junk shot have been evolved and tested as much as has been possible, and much evolved in the controlling of the wells damaged by Saddam. Bits of tire, rubber balls, rope, electrical cord - all sounds very ad hoc. But if you consider the issues they make sense. Pressures of many thousands of pounds per square inch, very fast flows, and openings from fractions of an inch to inches. This isn't a wild idea pulled out of thin air. It works and has been proven to work many times. Just not in quite the circumstances we have here.

The other point that seems to have been missed for the last couple of days of comments here. Everyone is focussing on the cracks in the riser, and the leaks here. The reality is that these leaks don't matter a great deal. If they were plugged, the oil and gas would simply flow further down the pipe, eventually to the severed end. There is some restriction to the flow, but not a great deal. If the top kill fails, the next thing they will do is cut the whole riser off anyway. The riser is damaged and not structurally capable of holding back the pressure. The analogue of a rotten hosepipe has been used a few times. Plug those leaks everyone focusses on, and stopper the open end, and the pipe will spring many other leaks.

The point of the junk shot is to clog the BOP. Not the leaks in the riser. Also, restrict, not stopper. Far too much danger that the BOP or other weakened structures may not survive a sudden pressure spike. As has been noted before. BP are moving from the lowest risk action to the next highest.

One suspects that timing is an issue here too. You don't want to try a very high risk idea too soon - if there is a risk that it results in an uncontroled flow you would want to know that the relief well will not be too far behind. So balancing timing of the risk of bad things versus the additional (but known) flow of oil and the chance of a successful kill. If there is a 5% chance that the junk shot blows the BOP and you have a 50,000bbl/day gusher for two months, against 20,000bbl/day without trying it, and maybe 50% chance that the shot reduces flow to say 5,000bbl/day, and some smaller but non-zero chance that it enables a top kill to stop the well completely until the relief well kills it. When is the best time to try it? It isn't an easy call. Especially when the odds are not exactly hard facts. Having a staged set of options, and trying to ensure that even a worst case failure of one doesn't rule out the next option is about the best you can do.

"Looks like they've stopped pumping again. The flow seems to have let up. ..." - Jimm

If the "junk" lodges in the BOP, then the plumes would, presumably, lessen to wisps.

If the were to stop pumping, the plumes would, I think, be quickly fed by well pressure.

I think the reason you are seeing the flow slow is not due to a reduction in the mud but a reduction in the flow. The pipe diameter is 21" which for those that are not sure how big a rather large man could lay in that pipe and still have plenty of room.

I wonder that same about the white plumes. Could be gas seperation. I also wonder if it could be a lighting effect. The light plume on the left is in the foreground.

There is a hypothesis presented here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6501#comment-628617

Believe the BOP is 18.75 inch ID

Agreed the fluid dynamics of the situation say this if the attempt is going to be successful you are going to need to have a very highly viscous fluid at high temperatures (~450 F) and even though drilling mud is a very different fluid it is very hard to see how this is going to work. The only this I could see happening is you get enough mud into the bore to stop or at least significantly reduce the flow of the oil but the drilling fluid and some oil and gas will still be emitted from the casing.

Hope you can back that last statement with historical data.

Two questions:

If the seabed is 100's of feet of pudding-like mud, then what is the 4 story BOP sitting on ? How do they establish the base of the well head in mud ?

aliilaali,

Since you seem to have so much to contribute, perhaps you could begin to provide some references (sort of the culture here). You were "heavy" on the subject of relief wells in the previous thread, yet since you are so sure the top kill won't work, suggest some alternatives. The relief wells seem to be our best choice, despite your "reality check" posts. It would be interesting to hear your opinions on what will work.

On the subjects of top kill vs. relief wells:

Remarks: On 1/16/98 gas was found bubbling around Platform B (unmanned). All but one well (B-7) had been plugged. B-7 was a low volume gas well. Attempts to control the flow through surface intervention(top kill) from the platform proved to be too hazardous and were abandoned. Fire boats and oil clean-up boats were on location. The decision was made to drill a relief well. The Diamond Ocean Crusader was onsite 1000 feet away within 96 hours. On 2/14/98 the relief well intercepted well B-7, and heavy kill fluid followed by cement was pumped into B-7, which stopped the flow. Well B-7 was plugged and abandoned on 2/18/98. The operator determined that the SCSSV was cut out by gas/liquid/ sand flow. This eroded holes in the 7-inch and 10-3/4 inch casings.

(emphasis mine)
http://www.mms.gov/incidents/blow98.htm

Solutions/ideas encouraged. Negativity eventually rejected.
Unsubstantiated comments = bullshit.

And yet they had to do it.

Consider the alternative. Assume BP knows what the experienced hands on this site know: that this was probably not going to work. Maybe the only shot is the relief well. So they sit back and do nothing while we wait at least three months? We (the public) would have crucified them even more than we're doing now.

There are a lot of frustrated voices calling for more openness from BP, and rightfully so. But what if BP had come out weeks ago and told what appears now to be the full truth: none of these intermediate measures are likely to work, and this situation is FUBAR in the absolute purest sense, but we're going to go ahead and at least try some of these other options because being idle will drive us all nuts and because even a 1% chance of success is worth trying, and we're going to waste a shi[p]load of money making it look like we're at least making an effort? Would that make anybody feel better?

Let me be clear: I am not defending BP here. None of these comments address what is shaping up to be an inadequate (understatement!) cleanup effort. But even that is in question now: if this is going to go on for two more months, is a full cleanup mobilization today going to be sustained for that long, and to what effect if the gross volume of oil in the gulf is going to triple or more? I know the answer: you have to do something. Maybe that's just what they're doing. Maybe they're not evil - maybe they're just f*(^ed.

How abrasive is the mud?

Yes, that is what he said. It was actually 81,000 barrels on four ships, two which he named: HOS (31000) and the Blue Dolphin.

judging from the color change I would think they are pumping mud now.

As a preliminary exercise, please calculate how thick your riser pipe would need to be to withstand the surrounding pressure of the ocean at the depth of the BOP with only air inside.

Good basic idea but the structural aspect of that is mightily unwieldy. Imagine trying to hold a broom stick 377' long (approximately 37 stories tall) and controlling the bottom as the top rises and falls with the waves, and sways with the currents. Sorry not trying to be a kill joy just trying to put the magnitudes into perspective.

I posted a similar idea a few days ago. But I still wonder if, like you "steering the flow" is better than trying to fight the reservoir pressure. I don't think the air filled riser would work - then need to steer it to the leak, and to that the riser needs weight, which would be the water column. My idea was to let it fill with sea water, and have a set of pumps, to try to establish the pressure gradient between the leaks and the atmosphere. The riser maybe need not have a hard connection - just get the thing over the leaks, and let the bouyancy effect and the pressure differences drive the flow into a riser that is anchored to the ocean bottom.

An open pipe exposed to the pressure differences [the oil is at something like 8000 psi] would have some remarkably bad effects. But if the riser is filled with water, or mud that is slighty less dense than the oil, maybe the oil would rise up the column; I haven't figured out yet if you'd the pumps for very long - once the oil "sees" Patm, the pressure gradient would be Poil-Patm, Not Poil-Pocean column

The other problem is the gas - and as it rises, it will likely form hydrate crystals along the riser wall. THis was the problem with the dome they tried earlier.

at some point, the "air-filled" riser pipe would collapse on itself with no internal pressure to counteract the ambient pressure at depth... : )

armchair,

You are very close to an already established solution. Good job.

It's called an LMRP (Lower Marine Riser Package) You can find a diagram here: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/doc/2931/564231/

Basically, they cut off the existing riser from the BOP using a diamond wire saw operated by an ROV. That creates a very smooth, flat surface for the gasket on the bottom of the LMRP to mate to. This is not a pressure tight fit, just water tight to prevent hydrates from forming (IIRC). The ROV's are capable of maneuvering the LMRP in place over the BOP.

Not a bad guess coming from an armchair kinda guy ;-)

I wonder if that's not a bit of an optical illusion. When the plume begins to get 'wispy' or thin, we see more of the white background (the pipe). I noticed this when the camera was on close-up.

I think that it's from cavitation but I am not totally sure.

@ptone I have been watching that for 30 minutes now. I think another commentator above mentioned flow separation from the methane in the flow. Not knowing at what azimuths the mud is being injected at (ie is it to the left and right on axis, or front back?) it is hard to say.

But I would not be suprised if the methane was making the junk shot more complicated. I like simple examples: my daughter has a wand filled with mineral oil and glitter, with one tiny bubble. If I let the glitter settle on one end, I can turn it over fast, get the bubble pressing isometrically under the mass of glitter, and keep the glitter from falling indefinitely. Tip it one way or another, and the mass falls apart. If methane is on one side, moving through the compacted mud faster than the oil can, this might make the top kill process infeasible.

Makes me wonder if the methane is coming in from a crack, as if from a clathrate deposit.

This well is far from the deepest water ever drilled. Transocean holds the current world water-depth record of operating in 10,011 feet of water while drilling for Chevron in the GoM.

BP has had a GoM production platform called Atlantis operating in 7,000' of water since December, 2007. It is capable of producing 200,000 bbls/day (from multiple wells). The Horizon disaster has sparked several lawsuits and Congressional threats to make BP stop producing from Atlantis until an operating review is performed.

None of the BP guys have ever owned a really old car eh! When the head rusts thru and you get steam an Bars Leaks blasting all over, then you whack in a couple of self tapping screws into the split. That plugs the leak enough for the bits of rubbish in circulation to block the small holes that remain, and away you go again.

With their clever robots, why not do exactly the same to each crack in the pipe. No need to torque them up too tight, just enough to hold each screw a little bit. One screw at a time.

That way the 'bot is not fighting the full pressure, and we can check progress as we go. Once the screws are in place we would see a myriad of small voids which will be easier to clog than the four or five big splits they are fighting with now.

If they use screws that are long in relation to the 'diameter' of the remaining riser, then the screws would also 'stick their fingers' into the flow along the riser and help with catching junk there too.

Nothing else is working so its worth a crack!

N

I’ve been trying to come up with a device that would allow for the well to be sealed from the top down. This would only make sense I guess if either the Top Kill damages the valve system to the extent that you get unrestricted flow. At that point cutting the valve off would not change the flow rate of oil and gas into the sea. The other reason would be if you had a very high probability of this working without a hitch.

I make stickers for a living so I do not know much about the top of an oil well or how the well actually works. I guess it consists of a pipe within a pipe. I am also not sure which one of these pipes the oil and gas are coming out of or is it both? In either case my device should be able to work I believe. I would be interested in what all of you folks think of this idea and how it could be improved to overcome all known possible obstacles to its use.

This remote controlled vehicle would be fully instrumented with lights and cameras and any other sensors needed to accomplish its task. It can move in the water using thrusters and ballast tanks much like a submarine. With this idea you would have to cut off the current valve assembly. However once that is done the plugging vehicle/tool would be able to quickly move into place without any further work, (threads or clamps are not needed), on the casing or drill pipe. The inner bore of the insertion plug would allow for the smaller drill pipe to go up inside thus sliding right into place in the outer casing. The bypass port on the main valve on top of the device would allow for oil gas flow to bypass into the ocean as the plug is inserted. This would allow for pressure free insertion of the plug assembly and avoid any sudden pressure surges in the well bore that might cause casing failure below the ocean floor. Once the plug is in place and the top of the casing is sealed against the urethane sealing collar the hydraulic actuated urethane side seals are activated. As you then close the side bypass valve you could simultaneously start injecting mud from the surface through the hose attached to the top of the new valve system. With the bypass valve fully closed the well could be filled with mud or cement. After it is determined it is sealed with cement the hydraulic side seals are deactivated and the tool/vehicle can be brought back up to the surface for maintenance and storage.

Not sure about all of the physics but it seems logical. Hope it’s not needed but I think the Navy should start building and testing something like it anyway as it could be used in the future if this ever happens again.

“USS Gusher Killer” > http://tweetphoto.com/23817974

Thanks for your comments in advance. If it’s just plain dumb, well that’s OK too, just let me down easy all right.

Thanks for your time and all you folks do to help the rest of us understand the complexities and dangers involved in your industry. God Bless and stay safe out there! Dave

The small, whitish plume people are asking about - earlier there was a close up of what appeared to be a piece of black "junk". Immediately behind the piece of black "junk" was a consistent, brownish plume. Once in awhile a smaller plume would appear in the front of the piece of black "junk". If you look straight about the EW in NEWSHOUR, you see the little black chunk of "junk".

I believe that is what the close up was capturing on film. Once in awhile the whitish plume disappears, just as it did in the close up. I think it's a thinner plume, and that make it look lighter than the heavier plumes.

As the process stands it seems that the only 'downward' pressure they are achieving is derived from the pressure differential across the leaks at the top of the BOP. Those leaks are the cracks we were looking at today, plus the flow out to the far end of the riser we have watched for so long already.

It seems that the wished-for effect of achieving a column of mud to bear down on the well pressure is not working, and the only pressure they are achieving is within the BOP, determined by the head loss at the leaks at the top.

At present the pumps have the task of pumping the highly viscous mud, then overcoming its friction resistance on the way into the BOP.

They may as well save the mud and simply try the much simpler task of pumping seawater into the BOP at much higher flows through the internal pipework of the BOP. The principle is the same, and if they manage to get the required pressure differential with seawater then they can add mud or junk to help seal the top. (Having first filled the cracks in the BOP with self-tapping screws, as I suggested above.)

It will be obvious when its working; the sea water will be flowing clean out the cracks, and at that stage the pressure in the BOP at the point the seawater is introduced will be equalling or exceeding the upward pressure from the well .

N

I'd guess they didn't like what we were seeing.

It is being shot out of the leaks at quite some pressure and speed. The mud will have to lose its energy before it can begin to settle. Combine this with undersea currents and you are not likely to see the area in such a small camera shot where it is settling.

Noticed that too even in the more distant shot this morning.

Seems consistent to a layman like me. The column is darker with some white jet, the leaks are by most reckoning larger so tougher to push the mud down hole, there is obvious evidence that the interface wasn't pushed to a depth where the mud weight was able to hold the pressure at the leak. It seems entirely plausible that a mixture of oil, gas and mud exiting the BOP may account for a plume that has a more buoyant character.

We are not getting the clouds of mud phenom that was so prevalent yesterday. The oil didn't hang around and this stuff doesn't seem to either.

Edit; They are intercepting some of the plume with a probe now and even that cloud rises right on up.

I wouldn't be surprised if they move the ROV soon.

They will use a diamond wire saw just like the LMRP plan. They might have to excavate a large hole in the mud to get access first.

I'll second that, and I also want to thank Gail and Prof. Goose and all others responsible for creating this site and keeping it up and running.

I am posting to agree with you. I have become an avid follower over the last 20 days or so. My wife keeps yelling at me "come to bed, you have to go to work in the morning!" TOD has the perfect amount of expertise, imagination, and well thought out commentary. Not much irrational effluent to break up the flow of ideas. Rockman et. al. it is a pleasure. Got a bottle of good single malt for you if you ever find yourself out my way. I'm super easy to find.

Sure looks like gas separation in the stream on the left. That leak used to be the smallest one. Now it looks like it is the largest.

It's an illusion. It is like the garden variety magic show. Keep you eyes on this and you will not see that the problem is industry is only interested in the end of the pipe that provides profit. go to the source. Its on the other end of the pipe. I will probably be banned from this site, but someone has got to tell me that it is a bad idea to relieve the pressure at the source. I ask you if the pressure were reduced 50 percent would one of the desperate measures be more likely to work. Enough. We are destroying the BOP with these antics and this thing may go on for months. Rube is hoping someone will read some of these absurd comments and begin to look at the other end of the pipe. THE SOURCE. Please humor me. How long would it take for a active producing well to reduce the pressure in this well if placed in the correct position?

see my other comment: downpipe or manifold leak? If they manage to blow the feed system, they are really screwed.

it would appear so. I have been watching since about 10:45 EST, and that most certainly wasn't there then.

BP had the idea with the small siphon pipe - up that scale to contain the BOP and let the well pump to tankers until the relief wells are done -

That leak on the left has progressivly been getting worse, whatever it might be.

Seriously hope BP doesn't screw the pooch even worse on this attempt.

Shouldn't they know how much mud they have pumped and/or how much has escaped? Isn't that kind of an important to know?

Sarty I am not certain about the new crack but it is very possible that enough force could be created on the bent area of the pipe to cause a catastrophic failure of the pipe and thus fully open the riser pipe. I am not certain what the wall thickness is on this pipe and it is far too late tonight to do that calculation but there are severe material phenomenon that could occur to cause full failure of the pipe. Being an engineer I feel for the BP guys doing their best to stop this but seems like some of the simpler solutions were discounted out of hand.

may i naiively ask, why are all efforts being made to stop the leak. Why cannot they tap into/over the leak with a larger diameter pipe or a cone that will mechanically choke incrementally as pressure equalizes within the tap pipe ?
Obviously the geology and head pressure will not allow containment at the well head.
What are the challenges with tapping onto the leak and separating the product at the surface ?

How exactly are you going to get liquid nitrogen down 5000' to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico?

The effect of liquid nitrogen on normal steel is to turn it extremely brittle. Not good in this situation.

Liquid nitrogen is only cold when it evaporates. I don't know what the phase diagram for liquid nitrogen looks like, but such pressure would at least slow the evaporation, hence less cooling effect.

There is a reason they call this a "one-shot" effort, unfortunately. Depends on how much of a choke the BOP/riser is on the flow already...and how much they turn it into swiss cheese before giving up.

Interesting thought. Cut off the riser to produce semi-open flow out the top. Then open the BOP to see how far the unrestricted flow can throw the DP. You probably don't want any ROV's down there to catch it.

Erosion seems to be pretty strong at this spot. I_P and others have been noting that the first pic of the bent sea riser didn't show any leak. There has to be quite a restriction or break in the drill and/or the riser here and cracks from the bending force or gouging before the restriction are gradually tearing the metal away.

So the leak rate has to still be increasing IMvHO.

was just on there, didn't see you. IRC would be great if we could get bunches of folks--but who here knows IRC? Are we old school nerd enough? :)

So we are at 17 and climbing on IRC - the Prof has stopped by. I'm going to leave a machine logged into the channel, so it should be up for a while. But timezone enforces a bed time soon on this one - so have fun. If you don't know where to start, Google IRC and give it a try, it should be a very friendly channel for those new to IRC unlike some of the hard core tech channels out there.

They can vary the cement weight based upon well needs. In this case they can pump a heavy cement that will be quite a bit heavier than the mud they are pumping. I'm not a cement engineer, but I do know the cement is pretty high tech and the chemicals the put in it could let it set up pretty quick.

Not sure if it's been tried. Top killing the well is not guaranteed to work and has some very bad consequences if it doesn't work.

According to a previous poster who seemed quite adamant about it, topkill has never, ever worked on a flowing well in the whole history of the planet and that probably goes for the history of the universe as well.

Presumably he would be more inclined toward your "experiment" theory.

Thought I'd save him the keystrokes.

I think I'm seeing significantly less flow out of the middle two holes which were the biggest plumes before. Hopefully those holes got good and junked-up.

Edit: Most likely the middle holes have decreased in flow because the left hole has opened up wider.

Yes, Its getting much bigger.

Actually although it won't be pretty you would probably get more of a mud volcano action going with all the goop if you will collapsing around the well.

The mud blow out in Indonesia might be a decent similar case.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61B0Z920100212

Although nasty its closer to what you would get out of a natural oil seep.

And yes natural oil seeps do happen thats how Canterell was found.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field

I'd guess within say a year or so a gas cap would form and it would be more of a methane volcano with mud hydrate mix.
The oil will probably still be coming out.

Eventually of course microbial mats would form and the flow slow.

Perhaps cracks would develop creating a more mud like volcano.

Of course a unthinkable amount of oil would be released but in the big picture say over even 100 years or so life can and will take care of it.

Of course of this sort of span any number of relief wells can be drilled so eventually they will work.

I'm trying to think of some sort of natural process that could actually open up such a deep high pressure formation.
The best I can come up with is if a salt layer plumed upwards say with perhaps some underlying geologic/plate action.
So perhaps there are actually natural situations that could have been similar however it seems to me anything natural would have resulted in a myriad of small vents not the same as a drilled hole.

Mother nature can and does have the ability to handle a variety of oil seeps its just that ecology is based on seeps.

Maybe a meteor impact could cause a similar effect ?

So even left alone from a natural perspective oil is a temporary nuisance. Perhaps the real problem is it destroys the breeding grounds for a number of species so you have a local die off.

So no in the end its not and event that Mother nature can't take care of in time its just probably not our lifetimes if it goes on for too long.

I believe it is just the mud injection pressure causing the left hole to open up wider and take most of the flow.

I don't see why not.

Great since the mudd did not work now there going to use all kinds of stuff and jam into the pipe. Ya I think that will work. NOT, All these guys are going to do is to blow the whole pipe up. Man tell me this is not a Government operation.

One comment your getting into something I thought about a long time ago.

My example was building bridges early in the 18th century the time it took to build a bridge leaped forward dramatically as you moved to steel and concrete later in time the rate at which you could build a bridge once you included all fabrication steps rapidly reached a constant. The ability to design engineer and create the solution become the limiting factor along with basic construction issues.

At some point in time perhaps by the 1950's or so the total allocated time approached a constant. Thats the problem with engineering solutions given enough time we probably could develop some sort of solution problem s we don't have the time.
The number of engineering solutions that can be solved before a relief well works is really limited.

Many stand the chance of making the problem worse not better.

How long does it take to engineer a big assembly around the BOP for example I'd say six months at best more like a year.
Its not that we can't do it its just that I don't see anything thats can actually solve the problem faster than relief wells which will work.

Eventually.

Ball sealers are often used in well completions. In fact a large floating ball is used in many cement shoes as a check valve when cementing a well. Obviously they can now monitor the well head pressure and have a rough idea the stabilized pressure they have to buck coming from the well.

I would pump a couple dozen small diameter balls and then watch the pressure. A small hole can flow alot of oil at high pressure. The balls will either go through the BOP or they would see a bump in the pressure. Pump another couple dozen balls of larger diameter.

Pumping balls will eventually start slowing the leak and increasing the back pressure. The problem with pumping mud against the formation is that there is a point you will frac the formation possibly cutting loose more sand. At this point you are done and will have a well flowing wide open as the sand cuts through the BOP.

Some of the well formation sand must be cutting the BOP as the rates have increased over time.

I agree this is the best option. Now BP should also start paying all those LA people. LA people our a tuff bunch start paying them for helping the clean up. BP has messed up there way of life, now its time for BP to make it right. And do it now, cut the red tape and start writing checks and do it now.

The movement of the ROV disturbed the plumes - it looked worse than it was. It is now doing some kind of sampling, sticking what looks like a bottle brush into the plumes.

Why do you think that. But sooner or later it will happen if they keep messing with this.

3 months for the first relief well if there are no problems is about right - so another 6 weeks or so.

I've heard that they are ready to start the tangent on one of the relief wells. Three months if your lucky and can collide the well and mill the casing.

But this is all third party, so it could be wrong.

What are they gonna do with all that junk?

Cheers HT, that seems pretty comprehensive. Hope you get some feedback from experts on your Y valve concept.

"apparent professionals"?
Some of us are the real professionals.

...

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

All last night sat on the levee and moaned, [X2]
Thinkin' about me baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago... Going to Chicago...
Sorry but I can't take you...
Going down... going down now... going down....

"this country has to have a conversation about how we are going to use our resources. "

Hi, bbering.

That discussion has been happening here for over 5 years. Visit the many previous post on all aspects of where we've been, where we are and where we're going. Or just stick around.

This oil debacle has dominated the conversation here for too long. I long for it to be over.

Yeah, now saying NOT RECORDING. What's up with that?

I have no idea if it would work, but it sounds like a really f cool idea to me. Does it really matter at this point anyway? Most like, we know what's happened. Cut the riser? Good luck. Relief wells, Helllooo!!?

During WWII when told we might end up living under Hitler, the American Public accepted rationing of meat, sugar and gasoline and offered up their young sons to die in Europe. When told that Sadaam had weapons of mass destruction they again offered up their sons and daughters to die in war. If the government came clean about the energy situation it is possible that the American Public was told the truth about the energy situation perhaps they would be willing to drive less and heat and cool their houses less. How can you know what they would do if told the truth if the truth is not told by those in power. BTW I am sure many on TOD do use considerably less oil than the general public. I am quite sure I probably use 50% less oil than most middle class people. I have the monetary resources to use more. My husband and I just choose to use less.

"But I have seen many comments out of focus.(#1 WHAT EXACTLY IS YOUR FOCUS?) A tendency in the readers to act, suggest and even propose solutions as emergency plumbers (#2 THIS IS AN EMERGENCY!) or mechanical fitters."
(#3 ANY SUGGESTION TO RESOLUTION IS WELCOME AND FOSTERS ALTERNATIVE IDEAS.)

First time posting here, some science background, nothing related to oil, gas, geology, whatever. 90% of I know about oil drilling, spills etc came from reading TOD in the past few weeks, so a big THANK YOU to your tireless contributions.

Very few asking themselves (not only to BP or to the US government) that if we do not want oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico or wherever, the best thing we could do is not to drill and consequently, to renounce or give up to about 10 percent of our present world oil consumption

Inevitably, when such a tragic and catastrophic event happens, many will want to question (and thereby, intentionally or not, ascribe some portion of blame to) the 'root cause', ie our insatiable desire for cheap oil. One commentator (forgot where) when interviewed and asked whether DW drilling is too dangerous, said bluntly "Do you want to drive? I rest my case." Others refer to Americans' love for cheap oil at the pump, and high oil prices causing recessions and job losses etc.

The subtext being that if we didn't have such demand for cheap oil, then we could have avoided such disasters.

There is IMHO a fallacy AND a danger underlying that line of argument. While I agree that we need long term sustainable solutions (again thanks TOD for some great discussions on that aspect!!), I'd like to point out that the GOM has been 'perforated' as Pedro said in many places WITHOUT the catastrophic consequences of this event, at least for the last 30 years.

From what I can gather with my limited (and therefore likely to be incorrect) knowledge, some or all of the following may have contributed to this disaster:

1. a problematic formation, of which BP had plenty of warning, over weeks
2. possibly a less-than robust design, in choice of casings, cementing strategy etc, given the formation history
3. a damaged (leaky?) annular from which chunks of rubber had been chipped out, weeks before (from 60 Minutes interview),
4. positive pressure testing was initiated <12 hours after the cement job, not giving the cement enough time to set and so possibly weakening it http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6493#comment-626830
5. the decision to displace the mud with seawater may not have been sound, as evidence by disagreement with the Transocean crew
6. they did not displace fluid with seawater to above the BOP http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100525/Memo.BP.Internal.Inve...
7. both #3 and #6 may have contributed to erroneous readings with the negative pressure test
8. despite discrepancies in readings from the drill pipe (1400 psi) and kill line (0psi), they made the assumption that the negative pressure test was 'successful'.
9. they didn't do a CBL
10. accurate mudlogging may have been compromised because mudloggers were not informed when mud was offloaded to another boat, AND when such offloading ws stopped (see house.gov document above)
11. the rig's emergency disconnect didn't work
12. the BOP failed to shut the well completely
13. the BOP had been modified but the drawings were not updated, resulting in time wasted in the first week trying to activate it

It seems to my very uninformed eye that there are plenty of signs that BP made some fatal errors that are so fundamental as to belong to the '101' level (especially failing to recognize the significance of the 1400psi discrepancy), AND there are enough experts within the industry (Transocean and Schlumberger come to mind) who would disagree with their approach.

So the fallacy is that the accident was somehow a natural and/or inevitable consequence of our need for oil, our need to drill deeper, and hence the need for DW drilling. The danger lies in letting BP off the hook, by changing the conversation.

Sure we really really need to get serious about kicking our dependence on oil, but that in itself is not germane to the important issues in this disaster. BP had a choice: to drill safely, or to cut corners. It would seem that they chose profit over safety.

I think we need to be careful not to become part of their PR machinery. Nothing would suit BP more than to change the conversation, to spread the 'guilt' to all consumers, such that anybody who uses oil (which is everyone) will then shut up since they are part of the problem. Nothing is further from the truth. American consumers did NOT contribute to this accident (although they may contribute indirectly and theoretically to ANY risk with ANY drilling, until the day we all quit using oil).

Finally, a word about the dire warnings about over-regulation driving up oil prices etc. If BP had not cut corners, the increase in costs do not necessarily have to pass to consumers. The company can decide to take lower profits. Their staff can take lower bonuses, and they'd still be miles richer than the fisherman in LA or the commuter in Maine.

Pedro, as far as I can make out, the problem with this whole scenario is not just down to the individual's use of oil. Indeed, if all of the world's civilians chose to reduce their consumption of oil and oil-related products, it would still not change the most important facet of the equation, which is that the military, of every country, rely almost exclusively on oil for the maintenance and exploitation of their armed forces. This is why the struggle for energy will never cease.

"I'm wondering if the hydrate formation could be used to advantage inside the BOP by flooding it with seawater?"

If I read this phase diagram correctly,
http://tinyurl.com/27mnexk
hydrate won't form at the temperatures and pressures present in the well near the surface.

is even better is "all or worse" if they are succesfull it will stop if they not probably the leackeage rate will be larger as is clear that the pipe has more holes as before

Yes it is a binary opperation. We cannot keep pumping mud for months until
the relief well is completed, There is not enough mud and the flow through the
holes are making them bigger. The opinion of the professioals is that
it is not possible to cement the well untill the flow up the well stops
We either stop the flow completely and soon to allow cementing or we fail

Is an all or nothing situation and an now or never situation. The idea of a "top kill" is to create a plug in the well. This plug is a soft, liquid plug and stops the flow of oil due to its weight. If they achieve a sufficient amount of mud into the well, the weight of that column, thousands of feet of mud manages to counteract the pressure of the reservoir. At that time, once the well is "killed" you can stop pumping mud: the weight of the vertical column of mud in the well prevents oil output.

If too little mud go in the well, if the column is not high enough, the moment you stop pumping mud, well pressure will expel the mud and the spill will continue.

The time that you have to kill the well is limited because the cracks are growing due to erosion. Big cracks force you to pump a greater flow to achieve a certain pressure. From a certain point, the necessary flow becomes impossible to achieve.

The question is, does it remain stopped when they cease pumping the mud? If they turn off the pumps but there is still flow from the leaks we are seeing, the answer is no.

The breaking news banner is gone. Damn.

Most likely a combination. Defintely hard to tell from the video, as yesterday everyone was kind of convinced it was all drilling mud, when it turned out later they had stopped pumping hours ago.

Unless BP tells us exactly when the mud pumps are on or off, there is no way to actually tell what materials are in the plumes.

The Incident Commander claims they stopped hydrocarbons. The CEO said the mud pumping would resume later today, which implies it is stopped now. Look at the live feed. Does it look like the well is static?

paraphrasing CEO:

junk shot operation ran from middle afternoon, finished early hours of this morning; will continue pumping mud later today

The message is muddled. The mud apparently went into the message.

There does appear to be a reduction in flow. If the Rueters story is true, then I agree they will now be sloooooowly backing off on the mud pump stroke rate. There will be tense moments immediately after they go to 0 spm.

up again

Muddier mud and more chaos from CNBC, same article, separated by a paragraph: "BP won't know until Sunday if pumping heavy mud into a blown-out well on the seafloor is successful in stopping the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill, its chief executive said." "The Obama administration's point man on the disaster, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, said BP's work Friday will tell if a cap can hold."

These guys are on the same show contradicting each other but the USG is fully in control, as we were assured yesterday. Smoke, mirrors, mud.

Some of the mud being pumped into the blow out preventer traveled up the riser, expanding the plume of leaking oil, and this was what obstructed the camera, Pack said. He said he was unaware if it would be possible to solve the problem and restore images of the leaking riser.

Hmmmmm. Even if true, this will be fuel for the conspiracy theorists.

I believe you are correct. And, at the moment anyway, the video seems to have halted. This is unspeakably tragic situation & made murkier by what appears to be BP's deliberate efforts to not explain in any clear way what is happening.

I agree:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/therap/

I don't see how it's possible that all the mud is going out the riser. If that were the case, the 16-hour pause in pumping would have resulted in oil, not mud, coming out of the riser. But the color of the discharge did not darken.

Speculation elsewhere in these threads suggests that BP has twice let the mud come back out, each time using a heavier mud on the next try.

I'm not sure what to make of the junk shot this morning. Are they having pressure problems or is it simply that they are slowly and carefully trying to increase the pressure?

Generally good but BP has had a history of safety violations ... trying to say they are the next Petrobas seems like a stretch... in fact it is the string of safety violations that are the issue in weighing a suspension.

Addition: NYSE closes for 3 days at 4 PM EDT. Let news cool off.