I believe the PBS/NPR feed is from 7 hours ago.

They moved around to show the choke side of the BOP. The choke flange is angled.

I'm sure they sent somebody to town to get a BOP that works first. They wouldn't want to look foolish.

REALLY!!!

Good job everybody who has been sweating in the 'war room'. Either Forbes or WSJ reported that there are almost 500 people working 12 hr. shifts...70ish companies. All the major deepwater operators included - and we already know that the service co's are all represented.

It's too bad that that kind of stuff doesn't get more widely publicized....might give everybody out there an idea of how tough a nut this really is, and how much is actually being done on it.

OTOH the PR guys might just be afraid of scaring people....or it's not exciting enough for MSM.

You think there's gas in with that mud? I don't see the white gassy jet that I've seen from the riser effluent.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/ho...

There was a definite change in color, and shortly after that an increase in the speed of the flow out of the leaks, and while I recognize that there is a lot of color change due to location, lenses etc, it is reasonable to assume that what you are now seeing is mud. (And has been for over an hour). That it is coming out without much change in pattern shows that the BOP is holding under the pressure, and what they are now doing is filling the well with mud. Probably won't see much change now for an hour or two, and then the well should be full, and we'll see what they intend doing next.

Most drilling mud is medium gray in color so I would say yes.

From what I have understood, the mud should have quite a bit higher density than water. I would expect it to follow a parabolic path like a stone thrown up in the air. But I have no knowledge here.

where are you getting a vid of the plume?

Looks like the moment of truth is at hand. I'd guess that's mostly mud coming back out of the top of BOP, as they force much more of it into the BOP kill and choke lines (below this point). It's inevitable that *some* of the mud will come out this way, but we have no way of knowing at this point what fraction of the total mud flow this represents. Hopefully, that's only a very small percent of it. But as I'm looking at the video right now, it seems to be worsening...or maybe it's my imagination.

The purpose of the "junk shot" would have been to clog and foul the pipe in this area, so as to reduce the amount of mud leakage out of the BOP. I suppose, if these leaks actually do represent a significant fraction of the total mud flow into the BOP, they might stop the "kill" operation for a while and give that "junk shot" a try.

Once they consider that the well is full of mud they will likely back off the pump pressure that is injecting mud into the well. They will monitor the pressure in the well as they drop the inflow pressure down, and watch to see, as the pressure falls, if there is any increase in pressure from down hole. If they can take the pressure of the pumps all the way down to ambient (which is under 5,000 ft of sea water, and is therefore around 2,400 psi) and stop injecting fluid, and nothing changes on the pressure gages, and there is no flow out of the well, then the well will have been brought under control.

When it's live, it appears to be on Central time.

I believe I have seen it reported that the mud weight is 16 lb/g which was the weight of the mud at TD.

Please don't use that word. Armageddon. Obscenity, I still have hope. Despair, is easily triggered in these matters. From what I have red the very best minds we have are on this one. every connection and flow route is being monitored. We are 60 days from a relief well. The damage that will occur in that time is not be contemplated. I will just go pour a stiff one and hope for ........ But this event has allowed me to look over the edge, and I am from here on out opposed to any off shore drilling. the costs are just to high.

Pretty sure that's where the riser crimped, just above the BOP, when the Deepwater Horizon sank.

Six different shots of the operation now showing on CNN Live.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream1

There is some amount of oil held in the riser. I don't know how long it'll take, but for at least a while there will be some of this oil/gas entrained in the mud flow out the end of the riser.

The BOP riser video feed looks like it stopped, and there is a pop-up window saying there is a VPN problem.

I guess they are opening a ticket with the help desk :o)

I bet ROV2 is the riser. The one where you seen nothing but murk. The mud flow out the riser probably have visibility down to nothing.

They had some connection problems going on with the live feeds. From what i could see, they have a wireless connection, with a cisco security system on it.
After reconnecting the wireless and logging into the vpn, the feeds where up again.
Does any body know how they connect to the mainland?
Is there a wireless network between the ships and the drilling platforms and a central satelite uplink to the mainland?

I can safely assert, though without definite knowledge, that neither a GC nor an MS has been modified for subsea use. The closest they might have is a fluorometer, which measures fluorescence across a short path length on the ROV and could be used to measure oil. I'm not sure how practical that would be here, as it seems to me the optical sensor would foul pretty much instantly.

The repaired BOP control unit is capable of measuring pressures in the BOP. They should have some flow rate calculations soon - provided they believe the data.

MSV Skandi Neptune is the vessel deploying the ROV (MSV = multipurpose support vessel).

Subsea 7 is the name of the subsea contractor operating the vessel.

The long numbers with N and E next to them are the UTM coordinates (in metres) - basically where the ROV is on the map.

The ROV depth below surface is shown in metres, and the altitude (also metres) is showing height above the sea floor.

Considering the mud flow path into the BOP seems to consist of two 3-inch pipes (feeding the "kill" and "choke" lines on the BOP), you may be right. How fast can the flow of mud really be in such small pipes, compared to the rate at which mud seems to be leaking out of the top of the BOP and the bent riser tubes? But the inflow of mud is "dense", and I guess we have to hope that makes all the difference.

I think it can only work if the mud has a much higher viscosity than oil. I've posted some calculations elsewhere on this site (http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6505/629002) that oil appears to have a kinematic viscosity of 10 centiStokes while some drilling muds may have a kinematic viscosity of 40 cSt. In addition I think that drilling mud becomes more viscous at high shear rates, such as where it's being ejected from the kink at the top of the BOP, but I have no numbers.

Regardless of how fast oil/gas/mud leaks out, as long as they can pump mud at least a little bit faster, some of it has to go down-hole as long as everything on the surface stays intact.

From the inventory of pump horsepower at the surface, I'm pretty confident that, as long as they don't blow a hose connection, they can move more mud than is needed to "supply" the leaks. In addition, although I haven't checked the calculations, I'm also pretty confident that they've got enough mud on hand to keep the pumps supplied for as long as it takes.

If they decide that they're going through the mud too fast for comfort, as I understand things they can turn a couple of valves and introduce some "junk" into the flow. This'll HOPEFULLY slow down those leaks a little.

And this relates to what is happening now, how? Do we have video of the riser showing the color of the effluent? Nope.

That is from yesterday: http://goo.gl/dCpm

In a way, doesn't "no news" = "good news"? or at least encouraging news? They're still pumping, the BOP hasn't disintegrated, the ROV cameras are still working, etc.

Well, no news is good news. at least they have not had a blow out. Even if they have identified a weak point in the system and have to pull this rig back up for adjustments I still have hope. another 60 days of this is just not going to happen. I hope.

I think no news is no news. CNN would only have access to spokesman who will be carefully and deliberately neutral until BP decides to have an official statement - good or bad.

Is it just me, though, or is the outflow from the top of the BOP substantially reduced? I recall earlier videos looked much more scary.

I think it's just falling down from the top of the BOP above. Perhaps a result of a shift in the current direction. It seems to be clearing some. The camera at the top of the riser kink does not look like anything has changed.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream1

Noticed that. Hope it's just drift from all the mud shooting in the water. Did you notice the mud plume seems to shoot up a ways and than drift back down toward the seabed?... some of it at least.

Hopefully it's just backwash from another ROV or something....

By "turbidity" do you mean the black shit that started coming out before they cut away to the mud blasters ? If so, I'd concur that yes, there indeed was turbidity.

Hoping the mud exiting from the kink leak is just cascading down the outside of the BOP.

Can't see the BOP at all now. :/

Some eye opening statements in a WSJ story:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6507#comment-629975

Well I did not expect to be spending 4 hours + watching this, but I can't take my eyes off of it.

re: the cloud around the BOP, I recall Tony Hayward warning that clouds may appear and just because you see a new cloud or color change, it doesn't mean anything.

I'm not there and I'm drinking coffee and smoking like a train (and I don't even smoke anymore). Yes, I'd say the tension is think.

Apollo 13 risked 3. 4/20 took 11. Where is Gene Krantz when you need him?

any subsea operation is about the same complexity as a NASA operation ......there are more than 10 ROV's working the well site .....this has never been tried ....so many ROV's ...i bet the ROV techs are sweating crazy ...........this is the most heavily cramped ROV workspace in the world......this many ROV's have never worked in SYNC

i think Oceaneering is doing a heck'va job with this

amen brother. Apollo 13 had 7 astronauts. the lives of literally billions of our fellow creatures is at stake. “I spit upon luxurious pleasures, not for their own sake, but because of the inconveniences that follow them.”
–Epicurus

Joule, what makes you think our collective view is going to start receiving consideration? Nothing could be more threatening to the continuance of corporate capitalism. There will be much hand-wringing, a few monkey trials, and another toughening of the regulations. Then deep-water drilling will resume in full. Nothing else is possible, barring a major social upheaval.

This is just a 6-month whirlpool in the status quo.

"Does anybody else get the feeling almost like we're in Mission Control in Houston during the suspenseful Apollo 13 ordeal..."

Somewhat, except that I'm fairly certain that neither Nixon nor anyone in his cabinet said that they were going to keep their boots on the necks of the NASA engineers until they brought Lovell, Swigert, and Haise home.

Those geeks with the sliderules had the support of their government.

Yeah... have a bad feeling something gave way.

Looks to me like the injection rate has been increased.

CNN just reported that BP says things are proceeding alright, and injection will continue for at least another 24 hours.

it will take some time

You know what BP brass and my old dog have in common? They just kinda lie there all day. A detailed progress report that can be interpreted by experts (such as some of the folks here) would be nice.

Hard to count on his honesty today. But here's hoping he's right.

The CNN 6-screen feed has a number of ROVs recently come into view. But 20 minutes ago - when they changed the screen shot - the BOP (I think) suddenly saw a lot of "turbidity". Still can't see much in that view (Screen 2). The ROV moved around quite a bit after the mud started swirling. Now there's a spotlight, but not being familiar with underwater operations I can't ID the view.

Maybe someone here would?

CNN 6-Screens

BOA Deep 1 - Riser kink - 3 spouts

BOA Deep 2 - Was the BOP (I think) - became cloudy, now moved

Viking Posieden ROV 1 - unclear

Viking Poseiden ROV 2 - unclear

Enterprise 1 - shot of a drum-shaped object, seemingly at the top of a large pipe.

Enterprise 2 - as Enterprise 1, close-up (saw mud coming from the drum bottom)

OI3 ROV 1 - ?

OI3 ROV2 - nada

That's what I'm seeing. Can anyone explain what I'm looking at?

and what is the scale? how large are those leaks in feet or meters or whatever?

Those are at the riser at the top of the BOP.

It's hard to read the words on the monitor, but that looks like the 3 leaks off the riser kink. If it is, there is a heck of lot more velocity to the effluent than several days back.

They keep switching cameras on 2 ROVs on either side of the 3 leaks...gauging it better?

I'm sure some of the experts here would kill for a set of real time monitoring instruments on screen.

Please look at the single "black smoke monster" oil "leak" video from this link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PASvown8rFM

Then, compare it to what we're seeing now. Anybody notice a BIG difference or is it just me? I thought that maybe methane was being flushed out as the cement filled in the well. That may be why we see the three to four jets of light-colored gas emanating from the "manifold." Is this correct or has the "manifold" sprung more "leaks?"

from what i can tell, there looks to be a significant difference in coloration between the plume on the left and the other two. Is this because one plume is predominantly oil and the others are mud or vice versa, or does it reveal anything significant?

I am a retired process engineer, have really enjoyed this site. Agree with your comment, BTW your name brought me right back to the 70's and provided some much needed levity as the lyrics started going thru my head....

If not just go to the DVIDS.net site and watch it live like all the other ones?

If not just go to the DVIDShub.net site and watch it live like all the other ones?

DVIDS is supposed to...but it shows it starting in an hour instead of 15 minutes..

http://www.dvidshub.net/?script=video/video_live_webcasts.php&which=1227

I snagged this link from gCaptain for a web link for the press conference: If the link doesn't work, it was off the main page of www.dvidshub.net in the upper right area.

http://www.dvidshub.net/?script=video/video_live_webcasts.php&which=1227

So, I was watching for a couple hours, then logged off for an hour or so, and now just logged back in to look at the progress.

My first thought on seeing the video was: wow, those leaks have got BIGGER!

However, it might just be that the ROV is closer than it was before, or the lens zoomed in.

Pumped 7000 bbl so far; varying rates up to 65 bbl/min.

Plume at riser end got too turbulent to see due to mud coming out. Apparently one of the ROV's is still watching it.

An audio of the briefing can be downloaded here:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/doc/2931/568323/

Other notes and figures from the briefing:

- Around $800 million spent so far in total by BP and the gov't (aside: that is less than 15% of BP's first quarter profit)

- nine locations aross 100 miles of LA coast have been affected by oil - no areas in TX, MS or FL to date

- 30 acres of affected marsh, 15 acres of which will need to be treated/cleaned

- a number of wildlife cleaning stations have been established

- around 20,000 barrels of oil in total were collected via the RIT, around 2,500 in the last 24 hrs before it was disconnected last night

- the mud being pumped is non-toxic, water based. Mud has been coming from more than one vessel.

- the flows coming out the holes in the riser are now mud, not oil/gas. Just as Suttles began to answer a reporter's question about how could he be sure, I lost the feed. (aside: the color of two of the plumes has changed to orange as I typed this - something changed?)

Response to the question of "how will you know the top kill is working?" was "when the well can't flow to the surface"

Reading subjectively from body language and facial expressions, both Landry and Suttles looked less stressed than in earlier appearances. I actually am feeling optimistic they think this has a good chance of working. Suttles did talk about what next steps would be taken if it fails - new BOP, LMRP collector, etc.

Suttles again referred to the need to continue drilling a successful relief well in order to put in the official plug even if topkill is successful.

Not abandoned. The were capping it off so they could move a production rig into place. The Horizon is an exploration rig and not designed for production.

Looks about the same to me. Maybe go outside for a while. :)

Are there occasional bits of stuff flying around, or is that lint on my monitor?

zappa -- PAY!!! You mean someone might pay to hear my disjointed ramblings??? Hmmm...OK...my price is a one-eyed dog and a box of 12 gauge shells. Hmmm...too much?

thats actually an interesting question, if the mud is supposed to counteract the oil, shouldnt the flow have equalized at some point and bathed the entire area in low pressure silt clouds?

I was just thinking the same thing about the race to make use of the available pressure. I don't know if they had extra pressure capacity before the start of the operation. ie if they only need 3000psi to force oil down, but can do 5000psi - do they start at 3K and then only ramp up if the leaks are scoured out bigger - or do you throw your full might at it to get it killed as fast as possible.

At the end of drilling they were reported to be at 14.4 ppg mud wt. Heard the kill fluid is 16 ppg.

As they are sucessful in pumping the mud downhole, the extra wt of the mud column will subtract from the pressure, and the pressure will decrease. I wish we could see a live plot of injection pressure.

Wow! Way higher than BP owned up to.

Mud rate probably higher now after ramping up.I wouldn't use the average. Does your 25000 BOPD account for gas?

that is not far from what sandia calculated it to be. they said its about 21,000bpd of oil.

Steamboat Willy?

I am guessing by your comment that you don't think that this will work. It would be cool if TOD could do a quick poll to find out whether or not its readers believe that the top kill will work. I would vote no as well but I would love to be wrong.

Given they said the kink was not really causing much of the flow pressure drop and that they felt even without the full open riser the rate might only be 5-20% higher, they would have modeled the kill rate needed to stop it as if the riser was open.

I was guessing shadow. The middle two are dark at the bottom, then light at the top, and it appears to turn light colored at the same point regardless of how the plume blows around.

I wouldn't worry about casing leaks. They had already set production casing TD to surface inside the casings and liners used during drilling.

you are right ....the mud has to form a dynamic seal and hold oil flow ....so if things are moving as planned means that you are seeing all mud and very little hydrocarbons exiting from the top of the BOP stack ....if you are watching on CNN ...the view where they are showing a couple of holes in the riser pipe above the marine riser package .....that view is showing mostly mud that means atleast the dynamic seal is in place........but again as I said in my earlier post ...the problem is all this time in this process the BOP stack is being exposed to stresses and trust me those holes will be eroding pretty fast comparatively speaking ...(oil production eroding steel pipes is pretty common in the oil industry even in controlled production scenarios)....but back to the problem....if they are pumping mud and they start losing mud to the formation and it keeps happening for a while ....they casing seats are thought to be very shaky so we could potentially end up loosing fluid at multiple zones in the wellbore ....if that happens how much time do they want ot keep pumping and jacking up the delivery rates to get the well under control ......understand they have to tame this beast before they can set the concrete plug ......the first step here is to get the well under control ...if they are able to get the well under control the better part of the job is done ....all that remains is a kill pill and a concrete plug which is about as routine as operations get in the GOM

If you have enough mud for two days of this pumping, I would think you only have to slightly exceed the leak rate and well pressure and you will start to have mud slowing moving down the hole.

Since we are seeing little oil out of the top, it is possible this is happening.

Putting a coupling onto a meter-wide pipe and getting it to hold several thousand psi is a tall order.

However, the general idea is sound. Their plan along this line is to cut the riser off just above the BOP and mount a collection device on that. This allows them to make the coupling without the problems caused by the high static pressure the well can generate. The collection device includes design elements that prevent formation of the hydrates that plugged up the funnel they tried earlier.

Pretty good concept. But, have you calculated the weight of the concrete needed to hold the overshot in place?

As the mud on this bottom will hold nothing the weight of the concrete will have to hold all the uplift. The working pressure is 15,000 psi, assume a 20 inch ID for the overshot, a 25% safety factor and concrete weighs about 40% less underwater.

Therefor pretty close to 5,000 tons of concrete. Plus all the reinforcing to hold it in place, etc.

Also you need a solid seal between the overshot and the well head.

The way this is normally done underwater involves a massive clamp with slips and seals to go over the pipe. The valve, or in this case probably a couple of valves, will be very similar to those on the BOP and would already be welded to the overshot, threads don't work at these pressures and diameters.

There are a number of factors that make this very difficult and could possibly make the situation worse but you can be assured that the engineers working for BP have a design concept already started.

If they were confident the well head pressure would be less than 5,000 psi this might be a high priority solution, at a possible 13,000 to 15,000 psi when the flow is shut off the design and manufacture will be slower than the relief wells.

for a top kill .....it is of no consequence if the well is onshore or offshore......once the process starts this is a closed loop hydraulic system ...the only problems under 5000 ft is you need to use ROV's to connect to your choke lines and ships and such .l...form a top kill standpoint its immaterial to a large extent ....whats matters is reservoir pressure ....any wellbore cave ins and the casing sizes .....but yes BP has reported the BOP is holding at around 9500 psi at the annulus

There is no choke for the riser. The only choke is the rams that tried to close restricting the flow? Thats what i understand anyways. The wholes that are getting bigger make the issue worse IMO, allowing hydrocarbons to still enter the wellbore. If you have that there is no way your going to kill the dam thing.

Right, that's my concern as well a couple of posts up. If that choke point is below where they are injecting the mud, they have got to create a high pressure inside the BOP (like the numbers you calculated). I think it is very hard or impossible to do with an top-open BOP.

Is the answer to cut this BOP off and bring in another? Can they successfully mount a BOP on a wild open weld? It would need to be fully open to allow the flow to come through while they patch it in. They can then simply shut the new BOP down, killing the flow.

They must know by now, by observing the pipe coming out of the well and the bottom of the gulf there if the leak ends up being inside the pipe, by the time time it is above the bottom. If it is, then putting a new, fully functional and sealable BOP may be the best option.

as i understand the Choke in on an ROV can anyone comfirm?) but the main issue of this is exactly what my fear is. thanks for being educated and articulate enough to convey that in a meaningful way.

How long can they sustain adequate injection pressure?

where are they getting the mud?

When the well is flowing the pressure at the wellhead is 2200 psi. To get to 13,500 psi in the reservoir you have to account for several factors. First, is the weight of the mixture of oil and gas flowing up the well. Next is the friction pressure loss due to the 13,000 ft of casing / pipe in the well. The frictional losses in the well will vary depending on whether the flow is coming up inside the 7 x 9 7/8 casing or up the annulus outside this casing. The final pressure loss is in the reservoir itself. Depending on the thickness and permeability of the reservoir there will be varying pressure losses in the reservoir. The pressure in the reservoir will be lower right near the well and will only be 13,500 psi some distance away from the well. Of theses three components the biggest is probably the friction losses in the well, and the smallest is likely the pressure loss in the reservoir.

Once the well stops flowing, there will no longer be any frictional losses and the only loss will be due to the weight of the oil/gas column. The wellhead pressure will be much higher if the well is not flowing. Probably somewhere between 8,000 and 10,000 psi.

They are probably just pumping drilling mud into the ocean.

I'm pleased someone who knows something said that ... because to my inexperienced eye, that's what I was thinking too.

@ tooldtocare

Why not unbolt riser from top of BOP's and cut drill pipe? Install new stack and shut shear rams?

Wouldnt that be safer than getting rid of the BOP's totally? IMO your graphic doesnt make any sense to me at all.

This is an improvement over your earlier suggestion which required a through-bolt across the end of the pipe to secure the coupler. Unfortunately, it still has a few problems:

1. As drawn, there is still a leak path out the end of the pipe and down the annulus between the pipe and your coupler. Remember that the mud on the floor of the GOM is NOT a good sealant when there are fluids at thousands of psi involved.

2. The installation process for this coupler/valve/cap system would require leaving the well open FULL-BORE for the time required for the concrete to cure.

3. I'm not sure that you can pour concrete using GOM-floor mud as a form. I'm not sure, but it seems entirely possible to me that the concrete would simply settle into the mud and disappear from sight.

4. Even if you managed to get this system installed and sealed, there is still the BIG problem of what happens a few decades (centuries?) down the road when the well casing rusts out enough that it springs a leak? It's still mild (alloy?) steel in a seawater environment, so you KNOW it will happen eventually.

The only PERMANENT solution to this leak is to get it KILLED and then use concrete to replace the impermeable geological layer that was drilled through to release the oil in the first place.

In the past few hours my opinion of Matt Simmons has dropped like BPs public image. the last clip i saw of MSNBC with him in it he was talking about the well running out for 9000 days. He spent more time talking about media 'spin' than actual substantial information.

@ Rony

I think that video is a stretch after watching this top kill operation. You can put them theories to rest now.

Put a balloon in it and dump the mud on top? Who is this idiot? Sea floor fracture 6 miles away? Can you say too much scotch.

I couldn't believe this. As I interpret Matt's theory he thinks that there is a huge leak surfacing some where other than near the BOP. And that the leak out the end of the riser is a part of this mystery leak.

And that the riser is broken somewhere between the BOP and the leaking end with the RITT. And that broken end just happened to land directly on the mystery leak.

I guess his theory is based on the difference in appearance between the leaks at the kink (solid colored brown with little or no apparent gas, and the end of the riser with darker oil and obvious gas escaping. All of which I believe can be accounted for by the separation of the gas and oil as it spends about a half hour to an hour traveling through the riser to the RITT end.

Among other problems with this theory is the fact that the ROVs would immediately spot any significant oil leak on their sector scan sonar up to 1,000 feet away, maybe further. And there are ROVs everywhere including at the relief wells.

Matt always seemed in touch with reality, now I just don't know anymore.

Current changed?

Ever watch a fire and the wind comes at you?

My guess.

Mike

I have no idea what happened, but CNN has a multi camera view.
I can't tell anything however.

nah, thats just silt kicked up from the wake of that Navy sub chasing the Oil Blob. Despite the seriousness topside, the situation odwn there is an eclectic mixture of Benny Hill and the Abyss.

my guess is the current changed?

Could be they have increased the pressure. Cold be a current simply changed direction and the mud is now flowing at the camera. Could even be a decrease in pressure, think stream from high pressure hose slwoing down.

If the riser "blew up" you probably would no longer have the feed from this ROV as it would have been at the very least thrown about.

Black floaties and nothing but brown cloud probably isn't good. Kind of goes in the opposite direction of having control. Not oilfield engineer, but they better keep pumping mud, as soon as they run out and pressure reverses...

Anyone who does drilling, what's going on?

Doesn't look good.

Gummo,

Thanks for capturing that event.

It looks as though there are more leaks appearing below the 3 main ones.
Almost as though a horizontal seal/gasket has blown (like blowing a cylinder head gasket).

It all happens about 1 minute into the video.

2020

it appears to me that in the video that you linked while the cloud appears to drift in from the left there was a noticeable drop in pressure. did anyone catch this, anyone care to comment?

The turbidity came in from the left side of the screen, there wasn't any significant change in the out flow from the jets.

It could have been a change in current direction but there were a number of eddies as the turbidity started to obscure the picture that suggest to me it was mud that was stirred up by the prop wash from another ROV.

It doesn't appear to be any change to the leaks.

But you can see what appears to be color changes that are actually due to the mud changing the light intensity.

Colors will also change due to the distance from camera to subject, reds wash completely out as the distance increases, differences in the color temperature of the lights, intensity of the lights (which can be adjusted by the pilot), direction of the lights, etc. Color is very unreliable on ROV video.

It got murky very fast, stayed pretty evenly murky for quite awhile, then suddenly started to clear and got clear very fast. Doesn't that suggest something was being done during that time that caused the murkiness, and that it cleared up right away when whatever was being done stopped being done?

Does anyone know if they are using water or oil based mud? I'm assuming a water soluble mud but I may be wrong. Perhaps it is a mix.

doh! bother...

At the bottom of the screen it's probably around 3 feet in width. The crimped/kinked/flattened white pipe where the leaks are coming from is supposed to be about 20 inches in diameter.

As I am watching this, and thinking how easily what we are watching could be an edited video loop and not live, I wonder — why didn't the MMS or some government agency, send down its own ROV to keep an unedited eye on the situation?

Speaking about holes...for the last several days I have seen the image of 1 hole with oil and gas gushing out of it, now the video stream has 3 holes, I'm lost ?! How many holes are down there that are gushing oil/gas ?
What happened to that other 1 hole image we have all been seeing in the last days ?

I've been wondering about them for a while too.

I haven't an iota of expertise in the field, but what I was seeing earlier looked like they were in shallow water and under something big. I'm speculating that they were monitoring a pipe of some sort extending from the bottom of a surface vessel. Since they're labeled as Enterprise ROV's, I'm further guessing that the vessel is the Discoverer Enterprise and that the pipe is related to the drilling of the relief well. part of the mud injection system.

The little stick they keep poking around with seems to be a wand emitting water, similar to a pressure washer. They seem to be using it to clear mud and debris.

Whatever it is they're doing, it makes me reconsider the notion that a career as an ROV operator would be interesting.

Depends on its solubility in sea water. If it is 'water soluble' then you would expect the clay particulates to start to precipitate out but they have a high velocity so they may be falling out over a wide field.

I don't know what type of drilling mud they are using. Maybe a combination? I'd expect them to use oil based if they have enough just because it would be easier to pump at high pressure through the delivery pipes but based on the plume that I'm seeing I think I'm wrong.

Basically the name of the game is pressure up the BOP enough to hope you can overcome wellbore pressure to get flow to go down. The problem is a high pressure reservoir producing relatively light fluids bring high pressures up the well and this requires more pressure in teh BOP to get into the well.

Here is a good detailed description: The Gulf Deepwater Oil Spill - the Top Kill Attempt. Basically BP has to pump the mud in faster than it leaks out to force the remainder down the well.

I hoppe to god the changes in the leak we see aren't them adjust their pump rates or turning off the pumps. If it is (purely specualation on my part) they arent going to get it.

To my eye, the flow looks somewhat less than an hour ago. I want to believe that the periodic changes to a dark muddy color must be more mud entrained into the flow, which seems like it can only be a good thing . . . . . .

As everybody noticed the color of the fluid leaking out is different between the center and the edge...
An explanation would be that the casing and casing hanger is right below the kink in the 21" riser.

That seems like bad news. If the main flow obstruction is below the mud injection point, then the mud pressure would have to reach the higher pressure below the obstruction before dynamic equilibrium and flow reversal can occur. A much better situation would be if the obstruction was above the mud injection point - they still need the high pressure, but would then have choke above them to work against, making this a much more achievable exercise at less than astronomical flow rate levels.

Thanks for spamming The Oil Drum with your website. No thanks.

I'd be interested to know whether he believes he violated BP's own policies and that is why he's pleading or whether he simply believe BP will throw him under the bus no matter whether he followed the policies or not.

I wonder how the court would react if he actually violated BP's policy and this could be confirmed. Certainly the company is still liable for the actions of their employees, but that would seem to argue against gross criminal negligance from the corporation itself, which could matter for punitive damages.

Getting darker in appearance since I started watching about 20 minutes ago........

I'm no expert...just been very interested in this whole deal as it goes down. I also have appreciated the information posted here. Keep it up.

As far as part 1:

I agree, I think the problem would be finding enough of the drilling mud and what to do with it when it comes out of the top of the BOP. The surrounding water down there has gotten much, much darker since this all started...I'm thinking the mud is mixing into a solution with the water...I'm think those sediments can stick around for quite awhile...not sure but it does have an effect on the ecology of the sea as well.

I was thinking along the lines of attaching the "top cap" and lowering the "containment dome" while they are pumping the mud...its apparently able to be passed through small (3" diameter) holes so it wouldn't plug the things up, and the amount of oil and gas being released seems much reduced. This would eliminate the methane crystals from forming. Then if the top kill does fail, we have the systems to try and capture at least some oil in place.

Part 2: No idea.

Again, just a college kid with too much time on my hands in the summer...no expert on any of this stuff.

Is there any reason that the pumping of mud could not continue indefinitely (or until the relief wells are drilled)?

Yes - that was my question precisely ... if a pressure balance was reached, and it was "known" that basically all the output from the BOP-top leaks and the riser leak were mud, then do they need to continue pumping mud until the relief wells are in place? In other words, once they stop the movement of oil&&gas up the well, does extra mud and extra gas just add to the leak velocity, or can it actually "stop" the upward pressure, and reverse it downwards?

And if so, what then? Just keep pouring mud in at the required pressure, essentially forever?

If I have a leaky gas line or water line in my house.. I wrap the dang thing with tape...

Remind me never to visit your house.

Whateer it is its coming out fast, very fast......

No idea, but I think they no longer want us to see the "product" rushing out.....

BM,

And throw it out just as quickly ;-)

Everyone is blown away that Matt yesterday seemed to show the first signs of dementia. I watched the entire interview, as did many others, and the consensus was Matt was way off base.

Kyzy, I can't comment on the precense of gas on the annulus leaks....mud injection from the choke and kill line is done in the annulus... If the mud was getting into the casing at the shear ram level, the leaks feeded upward from the pumped mud should be the same composition therefore the same color... this indicated that the mud feeds to the inside of the casing somewhere downhole... maybe the casing parted at one of the 330 threaded joints which assemble the 7"x9-7/8" tapered casing...

El Profe meant to type 6515, not 6115.
As of now, the most current discussion is at 6516.