Drumbeat: April 1, 2010
Posted by Leanan on April 1, 2010 - 10:13am
John Michael Greer: Riddles in the Dark
Any number of metaphors might be used for the predicament today’s industrial societies face as the age of cheap energy stumbles to its end, but the one that keeps coming to mind is drawn from a scene in one of the favorite books of my childhood, J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Hobbit. It’s the point in the story when Bilbo Baggins, the protagonist, gets lost in goblin-tunnels under the Misty Mountains and there encounters a gaunt, slippery, cannibalistic creature named Gollum.That meeting was not exactly full of bonhomie. Gollum regarded Bilbo in much the way a hungry undergraduate regards the arrival of takeout pizza, but Bilbo was armed and alert. To put his intended meal off his guard, Gollum challenged Bilbo to a riddle contest. So there they sat, deep underground, challenging each other with the hardest riddles they could think of. I sometimes think the rock around Gollum’s lair must have been a Jurassic sandstone full of crude oil; if Gollum were around nowadays, equally, I suspect he would be shilling for Cambridge Energy Research Associates, purveying energy misinformation to the media, and his “Preciousss” would be made of black gold. Certainly, though, the world’s industrial societies right now are in much the same predicament as Bilbo, fumbling in the dark for answers to riddles that take on an increasingly threatening tone with each moment that passes.
Oil Firms Could Produce on Atlantic Shelf in 7 Years - Study
The offshore U.S. Atlantic Continental Shelf could contain 3.8 billion barrels (Bb) of oil and 137 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. First production could be as early as seven years in the area that the Obama Administration announced will be open to exploration, but any current estimates are still very preliminary, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA).
Uganda: Petrol scarcity paralyses country
The shortage in petrol supplies has left the entire country paralysed. This insufficiency, which started a fortnight ago, has spread countrywide leaving several filling stations closed and causing agony for transporters and passengers in most towns.
Canadian Natural Gas Enters 'New Reality' - NEB Report
It's a new reality for Canadian natural gas with new plays, new technology, and shifts in gas type creating both challenges and opportunities for those working in the sector says a recent report from the National Energy Board.In the report, Short Term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2010-2012, the NEB sees a shift from Alberta to British Columbia in natural gas production. This is due to an increase in the production of tight and unconventional gas which has grown significantly in the northeast B.C. areas of Horn River and Montney. Over 210 wells could be drilled in Montney and 70 wells in Horn River in 2010 alone. Alberta's gas production is expected to decline over the next few years from 12.7 to 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Meanwhile, B.C. will see an increase from 2.7 to 3.7 Bcf/d.
David Hargreaves: Mining analyst
GEOFF CANDY: What exactly is shale gas?DAVID HARGREAVES: Well if we look at all the forms of fuel, the most comfortable one is natural gas. You turn on the tap, you press the button and there it is - needn't worry you - nicer than oil, nicer than coal, nicer than nuclear but there's a bit of a shortage of it, and whilst the world has 60 years of reserves - we're told - America, which uses most of it and likes it, only has 11, but trapped deep in the earth in shale layers - shale is a soft grey friable rock - are gas quantities in large form. Nobody has been able to get it out but now some of the boffins say they do and so we all know where it is now. Much under the United States, lots under Canada - even some under Poland. If it becomes exploitable, it could change the face of immediate requirements, and perhaps long-term requirements of domestic fuel.
Report: Gulf states face energy and food shortage
(MENAFN - The Peninsula) Gulf states face crippling shortages of energy, water and food unless resource management is overhauled now, says a study conducted by New Economist Intelligence Unit.
GCC countries face electricity squeeze
GCC countries are gearing up for one of the biggest expansions of electricity-generating capacity in history, even as they confront difficulties in securing debt finance and fuel for the plants.From Kuwait to Saudi Arabia to Abu Dhabi, it is the same story: power officials looking at a doubling or tripling of consumption in the next two decades, but facing acute shortages of natural gas. With the easing of the economic crisis and renewed growth, this year could become an especially big year for the power industry, said Dietmar Siersdorfer, the chief executive of the Middle East energy cluster for Siemens, the German maker of generating equipment.
“Due to the financial crisis in the whole world, there was one year lost because there was no financing available here in the region and now there’s a certain backlog which has to go first,” he said. “We see at the moment many projects starting to fly in the region: both because of demand, but also by finance capabilities.”
U.S. Wasted NASA and Opportunity for Energy Independence
Until now I have remained silent, except to a few movers and shakers in the NASA establishment (who basically agree with me, but say that politics has essentially trumped practicality), but a just-published piece in Sunday’s Washington Post, “NASA’s $9.4 billion mission to nowhere,” (NASA's $9.4 billion mission to nowhere) was the last straw. Had we pursued what was already on the drawing board in 1978, we would be essentially finished today. The few items in popular use that might still require fossil fuels would not necessitate overseas imports for hundreds of years, and given the rate of technological advance, even those few would probably have yielded alternative methods by now.
Nuclear power – yes please, and lots of it
This new nuclear capacity is required not simply to meet growing demand, but also to fill the gaping hole of diminishing supply. Nine of Britain’s 10 nuclear power stations are due to close over the next 20 years. Old, dirty coal plants are also being shut down. For all the fanfare about renewable energy, its rapid growth is from a low base (around 5 per cent of UK supply). There is no prospect that renewable energy sources will be sufficient, on their own, to bridge the gap.
Fuel efficiency rules aimed at advanced vehicles
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration is setting tough gas mileage standards for new cars and trucks, spurring the next generation of fuel-sipping gas-electric hybrids, efficient engines and electric cars.
Mexico City drastically reduced air pollutants since 1990s
MEXICO CITY -- This megalopolis once had the world's worst air, with skies so poisonous that birds dropped dead in flight. Today, efforts to clean the smog are showing visible progress, revealing stunning views of snow-capped volcanoes -- and offering a model for the developing world.
Chemical exposure may triple breast cancer risk
LONDON - Exposure to certain chemicals and pollutants before a woman reaches her mid-30s could triple her risk of developing breast cancer after the menopause, Canadian scientists said on Thursday.In a study in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, a British Medical Journal title, the researchers found that women exposed to synthetic fibers and petrol products during the course of their work appeared to be most at risk.
The magic of squatter cities is that they are improved steadily and gradually by their residents. To a planner’s eye, these cities look chaotic. I trained as a biologist and to my eye, they look organic. Squatter cities are also unexpectedly green. They have maximum density—1m people per square mile in some areas of Mumbai—and have minimum energy and material use. People get around by foot, bicycle, rickshaw, or the universal shared taxi.Not everything is efficient in the slums, though. In the Brazilian favelas where electricity is stolen and therefore free, people leave their lights on all day. But in most slums recycling is literally a way of life. The Dharavi slum in Mumbai has 400 recycling units and 30,000 ragpickers. Six thousand tons of rubbish are sorted every day. In 2007, the Economist reported that in Vietnam and Mozambique, “Waves of gleaners sift the sweepings of Hanoi’s streets, just as Mozambiquan children pick over the rubbish of Maputo’s main tip. Every city in Asia and Latin America has an industry based on gathering up old cardboard boxes.” There’s even a book on the subject: The World’s Scavengers (2007) by Martin Medina. Lagos, Nigeria, widely considered the world’s most chaotic city, has an environment day on the last Saturday of every month. From 7am to 10am nobody drives, and the city tidies itself up.
Sustainability is the new American Dream (2010 post-recession consumer study)
Today’s consumer is emerging from the recession with a radically new definition of the American Dream and a renewed sense in their own resourcefulness and priorities according to a just released quantitative study of 1200 consumers and qualitative research with nearly 700, conducted by Ogilvy & Mather Chicago in partnership with leading consumer insight company Communispace.Among the study’s key findings is that “having it all” is an unrealistic goal with 75% of those surveyed saying they would rather get out of the rat race than climb the corporate ladder – and instead, 76% said they would rather spend more time with family than make more money. Moreover, Americans are showing disenchantment with the pursuit of money with 75% again saying they would trade job security over a job that offered an opportunity for raises.
Say it loud: I’m childfree and I’m proud
In 1969, graduating college senior Stephanie Mills made national headlines with a commencement address exclaiming that, in the face of impending ecological devastation, she was choosing to forgo parenthood. "I am terribly saddened by the fact that the most humane thing for me to do is to have no children at all," she told her classmates.I come here before you today to make the same proclamation — with a twist. I am thoroughly delighted by the fact that the most humane thing for me to do is to have no children at all.
ANALYSIS - China's diesel surplus could be for the long haul
BEIJING (Reuters) - Oil refiners from Europe to Japan to Singapore hoping for margins to recover from year-lows have a worrying trend to consider -- last year's diesel surplus in China looks set to become a permanent fixture.Record crude imports and refinery output are being used to fuel the world's No.3 economy, but with China adding at least half a million bpd of crude processing units every year until 2015, it is producing diesel even faster than the country's double-digit growth can absorb.
While processing more crude to cover rebounding diesel use -- 40 percent of total demand in the world's No.2 oil consumer -- an additional factor behind refiners' plan to up runs by at least 600,000 barrels per day this year is the need for naphtha, the feedstock for a petrochemicals boom.
Oil price bulls make some noise with rise in global demand
Those persistent oil price bulls are threatening to crash through the gates of their holding pen once again.After repeatedly bumping up against the ceiling of their six-monthlong trading range for the past several weeks, crude prices look ready to bust out.
Oil prices will be stable for some time - OPEC
World prices on oil will remain stable till the end of this year and will be kept at the level of slightly above 80 dollars per barrel. Such is the forecast, given by the President of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Ecuadorian Minister Germanico Pinto.
Rosneft seeks Venezuela oil assets in Germany - sources
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil major Rosneft is seeking to buy stakes in four German refineries from Venezuela as part of a Kremlin drive to encourage its firms to own assets all over the world, industry sources told Reuters.
Shell May Exit Retail, Marketing in 21 Africa Nations
(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, wants to sell most of its downstream operations in 21 African countries, cutting back further in refining and marketing.“While a number of options are being considered, the preferred outcome is the sale of most businesses in scope as going concerns,” the company said on its Web site today.
Pakistan to protect gas pipeline for India
CANCUN, Mexico (UPI) -- Pakistan would provide India with security guarantees for a pipeline from the South Pars gas complex in Iran as an incentive to join, officials said in Mexico."We will guarantee for the safe delivery of gas (at Pakistan-India border)," said Mohammed Chaudhry Ejaz, the deputy petroleum secretary for Pakistan told the Press Trust of India.
Turkey to help Pakistan overcome energy crisis: Gul
LAHORE (APP): Turkish President Abdullah Gul has said the Turkish people are fully aware of the energy crisis being faced by Pakistan and Turkey will provide all possible help to overcome the problem. He was addressing the Pak-Turkey CEO forum organized by Punjab Board of Investment and Trade (PIBT) at a local hotel on Thursday.
Green shoots of a different kind: Signs of relocalisation?
After decades of sending manufacturing operations to cheaper labour markets overseas, could the West being seeing the first signs of a sea change? Is it possible the next great economic shift will be away from globalised markets and back to local manufacturing?
Arab states urged to push for renewable energy
Arab states, likely to be among those hit hardest by climate change, are not doing enough to promote renewable energy, environmental experts said at a conference here.Carbon dioxide emissions in the region are increasing at one of the fastest rates in the world, nearly doubling in the period 1990-2003, a UN Arab Human Development Report said.
PRINCETON, NJ. On the last day of the month, Climate Central has just published an interactive animated map showing what we might expect in Marches to come as the climate warms. Developed by Climate Central scientists, the map uses special high-resolution projections covering the Lower 48 states to show where average March temperatures are expected to be above or below freezing each decade this century. The map also compares projections under a low, reduced carbon pollution scenario versus a high one that extends current trends.
Bill McKibben: Bless Bolivia for re-charging the fight to rescue our climate
In a week when the American president has decided our energy policy should involve lots more offshore oil drilling, it's easy to despair--it doesn't look like it's going to be much of an Earth Day in the U.S. this April. But maybe we'll get a jolt of political energy from the south, courtesy of the groups and leaders assembling from across the world in Cochabamba, Bolivia. This People's Summit on Climate Change will be seen as naive by precisely the kind of people applauding the president for turning on the oil spigots today--after all, its by definition a People's Summit, free from the kind of corporate interference that helped sink the Copenhagen conference in December (Bolivia's Supreme Court having not yet decided that corporations are people).
The most simply I can put complex variables is that the US faces one of three futures, one of which (#2) cannot be prepared against. Those are:1. The Greater Depression, which might last as long as Japan’s, now rising two decades.
2. Dictatorship.
3. The complete breakdown of the economy and any sort of cohesiveness or order, which James Howard Kunstler refers to as The Long Emergency, Rawles covers in Patriot, and is the theme of similar works of semi-fiction such as The Day After and Lights Out.
If you want to make easy, relatively inexpensive, minimal preparations, I concur with Trace, with one addition: pick up an old, but serviceable, motor home which will probably run you a couple of thousand dollars, or an old travel trailer if you have a van or truck that will pull it. Use that to store your food supplies, your “Bug Out Bag” (BOB), and such luxuries as you can fit in, including clothing for both hot and cold weather. The reasoning is obvious: it makes no sense whatsoever to leave your emergency food supplies behind, and if time is critically short almost everything you need is already packed. We live in an increasingly violent world, and if you evacuate for what you think will be a short period, either you could be wrong about the duration or you could return to find your home had been raided, trashed, or even destroyed by those who hadn’t bothered to prepare and helped themselves to your possessions.
Hedging against Peak Oil Shocks
Many policymakers and pundits have made the case that the United States should become "energy independent." One economic interpretation of energy independence is that increased domestic energy production leads to greater risk sharing in the presence of imperfect capital markets. The wealth effects of energy production increase during peak oil shocks that help energy-producing states hedge against peak oil shocks. I test this hypothesis using consumption and gross state product data for US states for the period 1963-2007. I find that risk sharing is approximately 50 percent higher in energy producing states than non-energy states. The results suggest that oil shocks have different effects on energy and non-energy producing states. I offer two explanations for the finding. First, residents of non-energy producing states do not place enough of the assets in their wealth portfolio in energy stocks that allow them to hedge against peak oil shocks. Second, the wealth effects of energy production increase during peak oil shocks which helps residents (in energy producing states) smooth consumption and income. The analysis has two policy implications: 1) non-energy states should increase the share of energy stocks in their wealth portfolios; and 2) an increase in domestic energy production should increase risk sharing in the United States.
Oil rises above $84, extending 2-month rally
Oil prices rose above $84 a barrel Thursday, extending a two-month rally amid surging regional stock markets ahead of the Good Friday holiday.By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for May delivery was up 65 cents to $84.41 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract climbed by $1.39 to settle at $83.76 on Wednesday.
Oil prices have jumped from $69 a barrel in early February on investor expectations that a gradual recovery in the U.S. economy this year will eventually boost crude consumption.
So far, however, demand remains sluggish. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels last week, slightly more than analysts expected.
"A good portion of the buying seems to have come on 'good vibrations,' the vague sense that the economic recovery is gaining momentum, and that that should lead to heavier demand for oil products," consultancy Cameron Hanover said in a report.
Oil May Fall as Supplies Gain, Fuel Use Declines, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as U.S. inventories increase and fuel consumption declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed.Fourteen of 31 analysts, or 45 percent, forecast oil will drop through April 9. Twelve respondents, or 39 percent, predicted that futures will increase and five said the contract will be little changed. Last week, 38 percent of analysts said there would be a decrease in prices.
Saudi Arabia to Raise May Arab Light for Asia on Gasoil Margin
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s biggest crude exporter, may raise official prices for May loading Arab Light and Extra Light grades to Asian buyers on rising refinery processing profits for light products.
Saudi Arabia Lowers April LPG Prices Amid Decline in Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the largest supplier of liquefied petroleum gas to Asia, cut prices for cargoes loading in April on lower demand following the end of winter and a decline in petrochemical use.
Obama opens new oil drilling offshore in climate drive
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama unveiled plans on Wednesday for a limited expansion of U.S. offshore oil and gas drilling in an effort to win Republican support for new proposals to fight climate change.Opening up parts of the U.S. Atlantic coast, Alaska and possibly offshore Florida to exploration is Obama's latest effort to woo legislators needed to pass a climate bill before mid-term elections in November.
Reaction mixed to idea of East Coast drilling
RICHMOND, Va.—Some coastal residents applauded President Barack Obama's decision to open portions of the East Coast to oil and gas exploration as a way to create jobs and ease the country's reliance on foreign oil. Others feared marine life could be harmed by drilling or that tourists would shun a resort area if a nearby oil rig were to be involved in a spill.
Large supplies possible from new drilling
Opening more of America’s coastlines to oil and natural gas drilling won’t cut energy prices anytime soon. And it won’t greatly reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil.But it could bring sizable royalties for a handful of states and soften the blow of future price spikes.
Boehner rebukes Obama offshore drilling plan
President Barack Obama's plan to allow expanded offshore oil and gas exploration won rebuke from the top House Republican on Wednesday.House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) dismissed the president's plan as not going far enough in opening up U.S. waters for exploration.
Obama's decision "continues to defy the will of the American people," Boehner said in a statement, pointing to the president's decision to open Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters, while leaving Pacific and many Alaskan waters largely closed to exploration.
Drill, baby, drill: The myth of energy independence
President Obama, like his predecessors, mentioned energy "independence." Such a thing is not possible, especially since the U.S. hit national peak oil in 1973, and even less so since we were an oil superpower in the mid-20th century -- no small element in winning World War II. We will be more interdependent than ever. George W. Bush talked more about peak oil, albeit parenthetically, than Mr. Obama. The president had better start preparing the American people for a very different future than the past.
Risk Is Clear in Drilling; Payoff Isn’t
WASHINGTON — In proposing a major expansion of offshore oil and gas development, President Obama set out to fashion a carefully balanced plan that would attract bipartisan support for climate and energy legislation while increasing production of domestic oil.It is not clear that the plan announced Wednesday will do either.
While the oil industry, business groups and some Republicans offered muted support for the proposal, most environmental groups denounced it. And the senators whose support Mr. Obama is courting for highly contentious climate and energy legislation to be introduced in the coming weeks gave decidedly mixed reactions: For every senator who praised it as at least a partial answer to the nation’s energy needs, another raised alarms about befouled beaches and continued dependence on fossil fuels.
Japan May Buy More LNG From Australia’s Coal-Seam Gas Ventures
(Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Gas Co.’s decision to buy liquefied natural gas from BG Group Plc’s project in Australia signals that companies in Japan will likely order more of the fuel from Queensland coal-bed methane ventures, analysts said.“I don’t think that’s the end of it,” John Young, an analyst at Wilson HTM Group in Melbourne, said by phone today.
Russia’s Economic Slump Eased to 3.8% in 4th Quarter
(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s economic slump eased in the fourth quarter as oil, gas and metals exporters benefited from higher prices after gross domestic product slumped by a record in the first half of the year.Output of the world’s biggest energy exporter shrank an annual 3.8 percent in the last three months of 2009 after contracting a revised 7.7 percent in the third quarter and a revised 10.8 percent in the second, the Federal Statistics Service said today. GDP fell 7.9 percent in 2009, the biggest contraction since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
A surge in oil prices bolstered state finances as the price of Urals crude more than doubled in the quarter from a low of $32.34 a year earlier. Leaner inventories, improved global sales and higher raw materials prices prompted companies including iron ore producer OAO Metalloinvest to boost output. The momentum may stall as rising joblessness and low demand for credit damp growth this year.
Indonesia's Pertamina eyes expired oil blocks
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia may revise its oil and gas law to give state oil firm Pertamina first right to take over any blocks whose contracts are expiring, members of parliament said on Thursday, a move likely to upset foreign players.Pertamina wants to expand its upstream activities to boost oil and gas production, and has identified several oil and gas fields that it wants to take over from foreign majors.
Putin Visits Chavez in Russian Bid to Grow in Obama’s Backyard
(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will pay his first visit to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez tomorrow as Russia seeks to regain lost influence in Latin America through energy and arms deals.The highlight of the one-day trip to Caracas may be the formation of a joint venture to pump oil from Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt. Putin also plans to meet Bolivia’s Evo Morales, who like Chavez opposes U.S. policy in the region.
Chavez, who visited Russia eight times during his decade in power, has wooed Putin by signing more than $4 billion in arms deals and inviting state energy companies OAO Gazprom and OAO Rosneft to explore for oil. Venezuela was a lone supporter of Russia during the five-day Georgian war in 2008 and hosted joint naval war games later that year.
FACTBOX - Saudi oil refining IPOs, fund raising
(Reuters) - Following are the oil refineries Saudi Arabia has offered or will offer initial public offers (IPOs) and fund raising.
Indian Oil Starts $3.2 Billion Cracker to Meet Plastic Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s second-biggest refiner, started a $3.2 billion naphtha cracker in northern India to meet demand from plastic makers.
China to lower fuel oil surcharge of domestic airlines
hina will reduce the per-passenger fuel surcharge rate for its domestic airlines by 3 percent from April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011, according to a release from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) on April 1.
Chinese President Hu to attend Washington nuclear meet
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Hu Jintao will attend a summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Thursday, adding to signs that tensions between the two nations are ebbing.China had been coy for weeks about whether Hu would go to the multi-nation meeting hosted by President Barack Obama.
Council paves message of fair funding for roads and bridges
As gasoline taxes and vehicle registration revenue — two main sources of funding for Michigan's roads and bridges — have dropped, the state can no longer adequately maintain roads and bridges, “resulting in a rapidly deteriorating transportation infrastructure,” according to the resolution....Michigan is now in jeopardy of not being able to fund a 20-percent match on federal road and bridges funds.
Activism Beats Prophecy: Wishful Thinking is Not a Strategy
"Climate change says we should change. Peak oil says we must change."I've heard this refrain, or something similar, from many a peak oil activist. And I think it goes some way to explaining why peak oil is such a compelling meme for many of us environmentalists. But while there is much truth to the idea that impending peak oil can and should provide an impetus for stepping up our efforts for a sustainable society, there is also a danger in assuming we know what the future holds. And that danger stretches well beyond peak oil—everyone who wants to make the world a better place would do well to remember that the future is not yet written.
Improving fuel economy of tractor-trailers, buses, work trucks
WASHINGTON -- A new congressionally mandated report from the National Research Council evaluates various technologies and methods that could improve the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, such as tractor-trailers, transit buses, and work trucks. The report also recommends approaches that federal agencies could use to regulate these vehicles' fuel consumption. Currently there are no fuel consumption standards for such vehicles, which account for about 26 percent of the transportation fuel used in the U.S.
Ford, Microsoft to work on electric-car charging
(AP) -- Ford Motor Co. and Microsoft Corp. have signed a deal to work together on a computerized link between houses, electric cars and utility companies to help manage energy use.
Japanese start buying affordable electric cars
TOKYO — Japan's first mass-market electric car went on sale in showrooms Thursday as the futuristic technology becomes more affordable amid a burgeoning price war.
Plan B 4.0 by the Numbers - Data Highlights on Solar Energy
Concerns about global warming, rising fossil fuel prices, and oil insecurity have prompted calls for a new energy economy, one that replaces fossil fuels with renewables. The sun is an enormous reservoir of energy; in fact, the sunlight reaching Earth in just one hour is enough to power the global economy for a whole year. Harnessing some of this energy is an essential component of Earth Policy Institute’s carbon cutting plan, as presented in Chapter 5 of Plan B 4.0. Here are some highlights from the accompanying data on three types of solar energy: solar photovoltaics (PVs), concentrated solar thermal power (CSP), and solar water and space heating.
In practice, only relatively small amounts of energy are available from tides, and extracting it will have devastating effects on the ocean ecosystem.
Developer Defends Ethiopian Hydro Project
Responding to complaints about the Gibe III hydroelectric dam project in Ethiopia, Salini Costruttori, the Italian hydropower developer behind the project, issued a statement late last week arguing that the project’s critics are opposed to Africa’s development.“The campaign against the construction of the Gibe plant in Ethiopia is merely another initiative without a technical and scientific basis,” the company said.
ROUTE 83, south of Minot, North Dakota, is a particularly barren stretch of a barren state. Last year, however, nearby fields sprouted a new crop: a $250m, 80-turbine wind farm. Not far west is Fort Berthold, home to the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation. Wind hurtles across the reservation, careening around houses and over hilltops. The Indian tribe has just one turbine to catch it.The tribes of the northern plains are mostly destitute; their lands include three of America’s ten poorest counties and six of its poorest 25. Virtually every tribe, however, is rich in wind. Tribes in the Dakotas and Montana alone have enough wind to generate more than 886m megawatt hours a year. Even if only one per cent were developed, this would bring in $3.6 billion over 20 years, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Now a growing number of tribes on the plains hope that wind will bring prosperity, at last. They are not alone. Indian nations across the country are exploring renewable energy, from solar to geothermal. A new bill would speed development. But tribes may have to wait a while yet.
For the Smart Grid, a ‘Synchophasor’
The hope is that synchophasors, when deployed by the hundreds, will increase the amount of energy that can be reliably transmitted on the high-voltage grid, which will be necessary if North America is to integrate more wind and solar power.
Colorado Senate passes clean-air bill favoring natural gas
Xcel Energy got a green light from the state legislature Tuesday to start a comprehensive plan to cut air pollution at aging coal-fired power plants — with "primary consideration" to switching to natural gas.
World Bank Mulls $3.75 Billion for South African Coal Power Expansion
The World Bank is calling on its members to back a contentious $3.75 billion loan request from Eskom, South Africa’s state run electricity supplier, to finance initiatives that would shore-up the country’s struggling power sector.
In fiscal pinch, transit agencies offer less for more
Eight in 10 bus and subway agencies are raising fares and cutting service or considering such measures as a budget crisis racks mass transit.The dramatic moves are the biggest ever for many of the transit operators.
American industry's thirst for water: First study of its kind in 30 years
How many gallons of water does it take to produce $1 worth of sugar, dog and cat food, or milk? The answers appear in the first comprehensive study in 30 years documenting American industry's thirst for this precious resource. The study, which could lead to better ways to conserve water, is in ACS' Environmental Science & Technology, a semi-monthly journal.
Court Ruling May Imperil Florida Deal
MIAMI — The federal judge supervising Everglades restoration issued a ruling on Wednesday that could make it impossible for Gov. Charlie Crist to complete a land acquisition he has described as the signature environmental achievement of his administration.
Computers Just Keep Getting Cheaper and Better
Thankfully, the comparison of today's economy to the Great Depression have started to fade, because it was easy for many to think our standard of living would somehow return to the level of the 1930s. This comparison of computer prices helps us appreciate how technological improvements elevate the standard of living of the average American to levels that previous generations couldn't have even imagined. Another lesson here might be that even a Great Recession can't stop the progress of human ingenuity, technological improvements, and the entrepreneurial spirit that will continue the relentless trend towards better and cheaper products, and a continually rising standard of living.
Armed with information, people make poor choices, study finds
When faced with a choice that could yield either short-term satisfaction or longer-term benefits, people with complete information about the options generally go for the quick reward, according to new research from University of Texas at Austin psychologists.
Koch Industries Responds to Greenpeace
In a consistent, principled effort for more than 50 years – long before climate change was a key policy issue – Koch companies and Koch foundations have worked to advance economic freedom and market-based policy solutions to challenges faced by society. These efforts are about creating more opportunity and prosperity for all, as it’s a historical fact that economic freedom best fosters innovation, environmental protection and improved quality of life in a society.The Greenpeace report mischaracterizes these efforts and distorts the environmental record of our companies. Koch companies have long supported science-based inquiry and dialogue about climate change and proposed responses to it. Koch companies have put tremendous energy into achieving sound environmental stewardship and consistently implemented innovative and cost-effective ways to reduce waste and emissions, including greenhouse gases, associated with our manufacturing and products.
Will Apple's iPad add to or alleviate climate change?
A new report linking Apple's iPad, which debuts Saturday, to global warming has prompted debate among environmentalists about the true planetary impact of these mobile devices.The report by Greenpeace, an environmental activist group, says the iPad's fun features -- streaming video, downloading music and books -- rely on "cloud-based computing" in which vast amounts of data are stored at data centers for instantaneous retrieval.
EU Cap-and-Trade Emissions Fall More Than Forecast
(Bloomberg) -- Carbon dioxide emissions from factories and power stations in the European Union’s cap-and- trade program fell faster than estimated as the region’s economy contracted, according to preliminary data from the regulator.EU permits for 2010 delivery fell as much as 1.4 percent in London after the European Commission published data on its Web site showing that verified emissions were 1.69 billion metric tons for 2009, down from 1.9 billion in 2008. A March 30 survey of eight analysts by Bloomberg News forecast a drop of 10.2 percent. The figures reflect data that is 88 percent complete.
Competing Catastrophes: What's the Bigger Menace, an Asteroid Impact or Climate Change?
If you ask the average person whether in the long run it is climate change or an asteroid/comet impact that's expected to kill more people annually, you'll undoubtedly get some confused replies. Those asteroid movies are scary, but there are no verified instances of an asteroid strike killing any humans, are there? Meanwhile, the science of climate change is currently being overshadowed by a media-driven public debate, mainly in the U.S.In fact, the expected annual fatality rate due to climate change is estimated to be far higher than that due to an asteroid or comet impact — 150,000 versus 91, per the World Health Organization (WHO) and Alan Harris of the Space Science Institute, respectively. You won't, however, see that 150,000 figure in the main body of the Washington, D.C.–based National Research Council report on near-Earth object (NEO) surveys and mitigation strategies. (The report was written by a total of 42 scientists.)
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Any guesses on how long it will be before we start seeing articles explaining how the "real sweet spot" for oil prices is between $80 and $90?
Going on recent developments, approximately two days after the price hits $91.
Oil's been about 10-12 barrels an ounce of gold since 1973 - where's the chart? - and the dollar is arbitrary. The dollar as reserve currency? Oil's the reserve currency, held at gunpoint.
Hi Petrosaurus,
here's the chart:
Actually there is much more instability in this ratio, it goes from below 8 to above 36. Note that the chart ends in 2007. A more current chart below (current ratio value is above 15).
The implications of the chart for the period 2005-2007 are interesting: either we had cheap gold , or we had expensive oil.
I wonder whether the ratio going generally down can be another sign of peak oil... Even if we consider peak gold, gold (a)is not burned shortly after extraction and (b)is recyclable, so essentially the quantity of available gold should rise relative to the quantity of available oil.
(edited: I realized that the first chart ends in 2007)
Bill Bonner said a while back on the Daily Reckoning that the price of paper money always eventually settles at its intrinsic value (zero) and the price of an ounce of gold eventually settles at one horse, a 40 bottles of good whiskey, or a second class fare across the Atlantic.
So for a while, I followed local horse prices. My conclusion from this research is that you are correct: gold is undervalued. For $1200, the horse you can get around here is either young and in need of hundreds of hours of training, quite old, or not that great a horse.
I have also heard (don't remember the source) that an ounce of gold has historically had the value equivalent to the value of the clothing for a well-dressed man. In the ancient Rome, this amount of gold could supposedly buy a nice well-looking toga. Today, it can buy a similarly nice and well-looking Armani suit.
The question for inflation-aware is now: what will 1 oz of gold buy in the year 4000 AD, and what will you get for $1200?
Trick question! The answer is: nothing, as the world will have ended by then!
:)
(happy 2010-04-01)
And the gold you can get today sometimes has tungsten cores so its not that good of gold.
Huh?
Try this on for size:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html
Lyn
Can't find any root source for this story and it seems neither can journalists. Mostly just circulating among the gold-bugs and market news. Of course if there is a degree of truth to this then I'm sure most would agree than the down-lo is in the best interest for everyone. Even a journalist would be taking a huge risk in exposing evidence of this; it would be better to be paid off to not talk. I'm thinking that this will stay only a rumor even if it is completely true on a large scale. OTOH its a goods story to spin right before you enter the market...
I'm along way from a conspiracy nut, but then on the other hand , just look at the Madoff scandal-right out in plain view, and at least a couple of people were constantly trying to draw the attention of the press and authorities.
What does seem rather obvious is that there is plenty on incentive to try on such a scheme, and that govts have proven themselves willing and occasionally capable of pulling one off-for a while at least.
It does seem that the odds against this one being real are very, very high; but impossible?I don't think it is impossible by definition.
My guess is that it would be impossible as a practical matter to keep the secret for very long.
But there is an open secret that is even worse-and only nutcases such as the denizens of this forum worrey about IT,namely, the state of govt credit and credibility.
The actual amount of gold various govts have on hand is of very little consequence anyway, except as a sop to the imagination of the public.Unless I am very much mistaken, no major govt has even a small perxcentage of the amount of gold that would be required to make it's obligations good in bullion.
The Swiss do, although they sold much of it on the open market a few years ago.
1040 metric tonnes, down from 2,600 tonnes.
Alan
If you are at all nervous about this possibility
don't look here
Was looking into it
on a drumbeat last Nov
Are tungsten faked gold coins showing up? I have not seen the documentation for that one yet. (IIRC most of the stories have been about bars)(watch video) The weight is close enough I think the coins would pass the Fisch test, but there is the counterfeiting quality problem and according to Fisch none have ever surfaced yet
but it makes a great light bulb... (old school lightbulb that is, none of this fancy CFL stuff)
As far as I can tell, CFL electrodes are still made with basically the same tungsten little wire, just like in an regular incandescent light bulb:
http://www.lamptech.co.uk/Spec%20Sheets/Sylvania%20CFL18.htm
Tungsten is a paramagnetic material while gold is a diamagnetic material. A small SmCo Magnet could easily differenciate between tungsten and gold. You should feel the eddy current effect of gold only when you move the magnet rapidly across the gold. The tungsten will effect the magnet even when stationary.
Also if it's plated it could be tested using thermal conductivity.
Interesting......do you have a link to a list of 'detecting fraud in you Precious Metals' collection?
Well hell, looks like the price of oil in gold is even more volatile than the price of oil in dollars. Of course part of the reason for this is because of the volatility in the price of gold itself.
Ron P.
It could just be that the cost of extracting and refining gold depends a lot on the cost of oil.
Good point Fuser, and knowing how greed works, probably not long. Here is a link to today's oil price:
http://www.oil-price.net/
It's currently at 84.99, up 1.23 for the day so far.
I'm sure the rationale will be something like this, "The economy did just fine in the 70-80 dollar range, but to maximize exploration and discovery of more oil deposits, the 80-90 range really is best."
Looks like oil prices are headed up. Crude futures just touched $85 a barrel. Don't worry, it's only an April Fool joke...
I took a short trip yesterday, about 100 miles. I passed thru a project to widen a Federal Highway to 4 lanes. Lots of big cuts in the hill sides to make way for the extra lanes. Trucks and heavy equipment smashing the rocky slopes and moving the debris into the low lying areas. Everywhere, lots of traffic. And, somewhat strangely, lots of guys on motorcycles out for a ride, enjoying a fine Spring day. I guess they didn't have jobs to slow then down. As I traveled the back roads thru Tennessee on my way home, I was again reminded of just how many local people there are living in single wides strewn beside the roads and up the hollers, with the usual collection of older dead cars in the yards. I grieve for those folks if the price of gas continues to creep upwards and they can no longer afford to buy enough go juice to get to town...
E. Swanson
T. Boone Pickens was just on Bloomberg. He says prices are going much higher because demand exceeds supply again and that we could easily see 2008 highs tested. Again he rubbished the notion that 2008 was all due to speculation and said it was simple supply and demand imbalance.
Goldman Sachs said essentially the same thing yesterday.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-31/goldman-says-commodities-may...
If Goldman Sachs is coming out *publicly* and saying speculation in oil is negligible, you can be assured it most certainly IS a big factor. Remember this is the same cabal of crooks who issued crap securities to pension funds, and at the same time was secretly betting against them.
Edit: for the record, I'm no P.O. denier. I fully expect the price to go up long-term as we are passing the crest of peak production. Nonetheless, big short-term spikes in prices, large numbers of tankers being parked offshore and persistent cantango may indicate something is afoot.
OPEC quote, above.
Translation:
Don't know about China, but in India there is no such thing as the "driving season" ;-)
If anything, people will drive less in the hot summer.
A cyclical pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The decline in annual oil prices to $62 last year exceeded all previous annual oil prices prior to 2006, and the average annual oil price to date for 2010, through the first quarter, exceeds all previous annual oil prices except for 2008, when we hit $100.
But of course (according to Yergin, et al) this simply reflects declining demand, which is forcing prices up.
Yeah, that old bit about speculation running up oil prices was defintitely put to rest when the price rebounded as it has, and as of today is at 84.99 a barrel. As the economy recovers so does the price. I'm thinking 105-115 will be the new maximum the price can hit before we have another (shock) economic step down. It's kind of like being in a lab watching to see how an experiment transpires, with everyone on TOD looking on with anticipation. It's a mixed blessing, because although we know it will probably occur as it did before in 08, the results will be negative for all.
"Yeah, that old bit about speculation running up oil prices was defintitely put to rest when the price rebounded as it has, and as of today is at 84.99 a barrel"
were you participating on this board when prices were pushing thru $100 to $147? There was heated debate on the issue of speculators vs sup/dem. When the margin calls came due it became obvious there was huge amounts speculation going on.
Think about it. Why wouldn't you speculate on the most vital natural resource in the history of man kind when it appears to be dwindling?
Were is Self Aggrandized Trader
You don't think I know there was a debate on TOD about fundamentals vs. speculation when it came to oil in the 100-147 range? Oh yeah I was, but maybe you missed the point. The price from 147 dropped because the economy was suddenly collapsing - remember? If the economy had kept going full steam ahead the price of oil would have remained high based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, which have re-established themselves with the rebound of price to 84.99, which is a commensurate price for the level of economic recovery that has taken place so far. As the economy continues to grow the price will continue to rise again into the 100-147 range.
It's a pretty simple dynamic if you take a moment to understand it.
A net export snapshot:
If we look at the (2005) top five net oil exporters, which account for about half of the total volume of global net oil exports, by the end of this year Sam's best case estimate is that their post-2005 CNOE (Cumulative Net Oil Exports) will be about 30% depleted.
And regarding ELM 2.0, if we extrapolate Chindia's recent rate of increase in net oil imports, their combined net oil imports, as a percentage of total net exports from the (2005) top five, will have risen from 19% in 2005 to about 33% in 2010.
And remind us again Westexas, please, seriously, when it is Chindia (at current rate) will consume 100% of available exports?
That was a shockingly wonderful figure - 2015?? 2020?? My favorite statistic lately!
I don't have the link, but I saved the article
westexas (Jeff Brown) on March 18, 2010 - 9:55am
Chindia's Net Imports
From 2005 to 2008, Chindia's (China & India) net imports increased at about 9%/year (EIA). Expressed as a percentage of combined net exports from the (2005) top five net exporters, Chindia's net imports went from 19% in 2005 to 27% in 2008 (probably to about 33% in 2010). If we take Sam's best case for net exports from the (2005) top five and project Chindia's current rate of increase in net imports out to 2018, then in 2018, Chindia's net imports would be equivalent to 100% of projected (2005) top five net exports.
But have we ever seen a sustained near double digit rate of increase in net oil imports over a long time period?
From 1949 to 1977, the rate of increase in US net imports was 11.8%/year, exceeding the current rate of increase in Chindia's net imports. Of course, until 1973, oil prices were fairly stable and this time period (1949-1977) corresponded to generally increasing global net exports, but on the other hand Chindia has shown increasing consumption and net imports, even as oil prices rose at 20%/year from 1998 to 2008.
EIA (PDF) production, consumption, net imports chart for the US:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_4.pdf
Incidentally, the rate of increase in net imports from 1949 to 1970 was 11%/year, but US net imports really kicked up after US production peaked in 1970, going from 3.2 mbpd in 1970 to 8.6 mbpd in 1977 (and then entering a period of decline, before resuming the increase in later years). But in any case, the rate of increase in net imports from 1970 to 1977 was 14%/year, after US production peaked in 1970. Over the same time period, 1970 to 1977, US oil prices also rose at 14%/year (EIA).
Note that two factors contributed to the late Seventies decline in US net oil imports--falling consumption and rising production from Alaska, as the Alaskan pipeline was finished. It would appear that the all time annual record high for US net imports was in 2005, at 12.5 mbpd.
Recent EIA data show that Chinese oil production is flat, while Indian oil production is down slightly.
Thanks Rat - 2018 - I was close!
Think about that...
The article about 'oil price bulls' makes some arguments, such as US oil demand is increasing about 3% as compared to the same month last year, which are very similar to what I've been making here recently:
Total oil demand worldwide may be growing, admittedly maybe temporarily, about 2 mbpd over last year.
But Exportland 2.0 is already in effect. So it is more important to look at net imports into the US, than US demand. For some reason, the media and even many public oil price commentators can't get their head around this: net imports (oil + products) into the US are running 1 mbpd a day less than last year since the start of 2010. In sum, US inventory accumulation/liquidation is 50 million barrels worse in the first quarter 2010 than in 2009. If that trend continued, do I really have to explain to the readers of TOD what will happen if the US ends 2010 with 200 million barrels of oil + products less than in 2009?
The day of reckoning is not that far off, and sometime during 2010 US oil demand will have to fall and/or active bidding for more imports will commence to avoid US inventories falling below minimum operating levels this year.
Let the games begin. Call it speculation if you want, but if you don't want to pay up you won't get in the game.
Possibly could be because some schools have this week off as Spring Break. Might see many next week, too.
Hey, Black_Dog, they just have to want to get to town real bad... if they want it enough, they will create demand. That will automatically create just the right amount of supply, and, viola! Abiotic travel to town!
;>)
Craig
I found the article on sails in the Energy Bulletin (EB) very refreshing.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52247
For a while the EB was spouting the "virtues" of farming. There's nothing inherently virtuous about farming anymore than any other craft. While it's true that all need to eat, it is also true that we don't live on bread alone.
Can the Energy Bulletin have some articles on (maybe) basket making?.. or hat making?.. or the making of clothes? shoes? kitchen utensils? fences? etc.? (I don't have any idea who at the EB to contact, but I do know that they read this OilDrum.)
P.S. For inspiration one can visit the Mercer Museum in Doylestown, PA; probably one of the largest and best exhibited collection of pre-industrial age tools.
One day in the future post-industrial may become totally indistinguishable from pre-industrial.
Hi.
I don't represent Energy Bulletin, but I suggest: (1) interview someone who does those things, write it up & send it in, (2) research it yourself & write it up, or (3) learn to do those things & write it up.
Or, if you're not a writer yourself, get the info & have somebody help you.
I think all those things would be cool to read about.
-- Dan
Dan,
1) EB doesn't take submissions, they only take things that are off existing blog sites... and I find that I no longer have the patience to maintain one.
2) I've already taken up one craft that isn't practiced much in the traditional manner (it's all done with machines now)... but I'm not going to write anything before I master it... which will take quite a few years I expect (it's 90% planning, 1% doing, & 9% luck). I do it for personal enjoyment, not with any intent for any higher purpose.
They do take submissions. I submit articles to them & they post them. I don't have a blog. You need to log-in first, and then click on "create content" at the top left.
Bravo Ig! (I can't call you Ignorant since you obviously aren't)
I too think there are many future vocation opportunities besides farming. Although agriculture is currently central to our way of life (we all eat), it is invisibly so. In the dim future it will likely be much more visible as many more people become directly involved in it.
But that will be true of all the producing vocations as people's work life becomes much more literally productive - meaning that we produce actual tangible goods, rather than being involved in paper shuffling and financial juggling.
I've been earning my living the last few years creating and selling productive items that require no fossil fuels (at least not for their operation - but some for their manufacture). I just started working with a company in Georgia that is reviving the wheel hoe which is a tool that was very heavily used on small farms and in large gardens from 1890 to 1940. It let a person do a lot more growing in less time - all by hand. Improvements and attachments were coming out every year way back then. But when the Dept of Ag started focusing on big farmers, tractors became available, and herbicides made their appearance - three strikes, you're out.
But it seems the small-scale farming is at a point where it is time to bring them back again. One of my projects is collecting the old information on how they were actually used, and converting it to modern style writing and images. Maybe when I'm done I can make an article for EB :-)
Greg,
Neat Stuff! Can operate in compacted clay?
According to the US DOE, water heating accounts for 14 to 25 per cent of all energy used in the home, so this announcement is welcome news:
New Efficiency Standards for Water Heaters
See: http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/new-efficiency-standards-fo...
Cheers,
Paul
No mention of solar thermal?!
The article posted above, "U.S. Wasted NASA and Opportunity for Energy Independence", struck me as very strange coming from a NASA insider. The author seemed to think we should have used NASA funds to boost solar arrays into geosynchronous orbit and then beam the energy back down to earth.
It costs so much money just to boost solar arrays into low earth orbit (200 miles up) that just the power for the space station is extraordinarily expensive. How much more expensive would it be to boost solar arrays to geosynchronous orbit (22,300 miles up)? Then how much would be lost trying to transmit energy back to earth?
For the space station it was a one time deal. For his proposal, it would have been mass produced... thus probably cheaper.
Personally, I feared for potential environmental hazards (attitude error?.. get zapped with microwaves & get instant cataracts (eyes can't dissipate heat efficiently, lenses get cooked & cloud up))... so I'm relieved that it wasn't put up.
Here are a few even better questions:
Why does it *still* cost around $10,000 a pound to lift anything into orbit, when cheaper/better and proven-successful rocket designs exist than what NASA is currently building?
Why did NASA kill the Delta Clipper program in favor of the FAILED, never built, manned, and exponentially more expensive Lockheed Martin X-33/VentureStar project?
How long a lifespan could a low earth orbit solar array expect to have, and how often does bad weather obscure sunlight in space?
I am no techno-cornucopian, but sometimes the level of "can't-do" negative thinking here precludes even the *consideration* of possibilities within the bounds of current technology.
There have been some considerable conversations about space solar platforms.
I think the upshot was, "Fine, prove it."
But also a lot of very clear reasons why it could be a huge money and energy pit. It wasn't a kneejerk rejection.
The author seemed to think we should have used NASA funds to boost solar arrays into geosynchronous orbit and then beam the energy back down to earth.
That dreck gets peddled all the time. Justify the existence with a boondoggle project.
All for a "24x7 power" pitch.
But the math doesn't work out - the "safe" beam-down energy levels are only 2x the best PV panels of today.
Guess what? Man is gonna learn how to live without 24X7 on demand as much as you want you'll be billed later electric power.
I did too until I read she was there back in the late 70s.
Hey, I used to work for a software company that sold scientific graphics software to NASA and I talked with all kinds of scientists there all the time... maybe I know something she doesn't.
Then she tops it off by admitting she is a climate change denialist.
I deduced she thinks she knows more than Dr.Mather and probably believes in conspiracy theories about global warming.
I left a comment saying the LHC at CERN was more interesting than landing a man on the moon and a posted a link to Naomi Oreskes' talk:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T4UF_Rmlio
I doubt she likes James Hansen much.
probably believes in conspiracy theories about global warming.
Which one? That part of the reason for the push is to make the bankster class even richer?
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/12/08/uk-report-just-30-of-carbo...
Seems to be alot of 'economic effort' into not actually Doing something about AGW and more about pocket lining via force of law.
Is that the 'theory' about the 'conspiracy'?
Watch the video I linked above. As for "conspiracy" perhaps its not the best choice of words.
It's more about the deliberate casting of doubt on the scientific consensus.
Personally I'm not a big fan of Carbon Offsets.
Here's a short one minute history of the science behind what we know about climate change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czRDS3jTM4o
Pretending reality doesn't exist doesn't change it.
As for "conspiracy" perhaps its not the best choice of words.
Others like tossing the word about when they don't want unpleasent discussions.
Personally I'm not a big fan of Carbon Offsets.
Yet that seems to be the model that is being pushed.
Do you consider Naomi Oreskes's talk unpleasant?
Yet the models being pushed aside are the ones that really matter, they are the models that add credence to the fact that the climate is changing, that is primarily caused by human activity and also the possible consequences of that change.
If you are interested you can download some of the code and raw data and run them yourself.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#GCM_code
Re; Riddles in the dark
If you're out there, John Greer, could you clarify something for me.
You appear to suggest that a defining characteristic of third world status is the quasi-mandatory provision of low entropy (tribute) to the first world. You then predict that the US is heading to third world status.
To whom will the US be paying tribute, and if it will be doing so, does this not indicate that though the US will have declined in economic and political power, another power must have risen? Can you still talk about a long descent in the context of one or more rising powers with the capacity to extract tribute from the US?
Maybe you didn't mean Third World status?
Toil, "who's next" is the $64,000 question. When the British Empire started circling history's drain around the beginning of the 20th century, who would succeed it was an open question. The contenders boiled down to the US, Germany, and Russia, and we spent the first half of the 20th century figuring out, in the time-honored way, who was going to get to play king of the mountain next.
Of course it's possible to speak of relatively large empires in the context of a long descent. Spain managed a global empire of pretty fair scale using relatively simple technology, and most of the rise of the British Empire took place using a suite of technologies not that much more sophisticated. On the way down, I'd be surprised if we don't see at least a very determined attempt by one or more countries to impose an imperial system on much of the world using whatever technologies can still be maintained.
The thing to keep in mind is that it's not necessary for a future imperial power to have the same level of technology, wealth, and global reach that the US has today; that power simply has to have a higher level of these things than anybody else in the world does at that time. As we move into what I've termed the age of scarcity industrialism, and resource nationalism takes the place of free markets in energy and raw materials, relative imbalances in the resources available to different countries could very easily allow a large nation with plenty of the right resources to parlay that into international power, even when the world's economies as a whole are far more impoverished and technologically backward than they are today.
Thanks, JM. I am still hoping for your version (ver.jmg) of collapse!
Craig
Your chance to technofix the issues and go with a plan B. (that somehow is lacking energy and a biosphere support system)
http://www.google.com/virgle/
Starbucks introduces the 128 ounce "Plenta" size drink:
Wouldn't be the first time I drank a gallon of coffee... :-)
0.024 stb (starbuck tank barrels).
The most relevant element of that image: the date, April 1.
Energy Headlines -- GCC
Two headlines describe the current energy crunch in the GCC countries, all located on the Arabian peninsula -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Suadi Arabia, Qatar and the Arab Emirates.
For decades the world, and America in particular, has viewed this region as an energy exporter so it creates a little cognitive dissonance to see that they are experiencing an energy crunch. In the 'electricity squeeze' article we find the following choice quotes in addition to the quoted section above:
(Emphasis mine.)
Here's the GCC growth story told with a custom graph from the Energy Export Databrowser.
With the growth anticipated, the GCC countries will be net importers of natural gas by 2020 and will be exporting substantially less oil even without natural depletion. This is by far the most important public announcement this week and yet it gets zero attention.
But are they really going to use oil products to generate electricity?
Here is Saudi monthly diesel use since 2002 from the JODI Databrowser. It's higher in the summer when air condition demand goes up. Peak consumption has gone up 50% in just the last eight years.
So, is this kind of growth guaranteed to continue?
Given the population structure in the region, absolutely. Here is the population pyramid from Nation Master. The Saudi population has increased six fold since 1960 and shows no signs of slowing down. (I really do need to create my own 'Population Databrowser' to group nations and have prettier graphics!)
Other GCC nations look about the same in this region which has the highest population growth rates in the world.
It will be interesting to see what our security relationship with the Gulf States is when they no longer export oil.
Best Hopes for sensible family planning on the Arabian Peninsula.
-- Jon
Holy shi-. Excellent work, Jon.
You can make projected population pyramids for any year at the Census Bureau website:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php
What is so concerning is not necessarily the pyramid shape, but rather the absolute numbers involved. As sanitation and healthcare have improved, people simply live much longer. So not only are there alot of babies and young people around, but there are also alot of middle aged and elderly around as well. Quite simply, every single age group has large numbers, except for 70 and above as a large number of people have died off by then. It's true everywhere, but much worse in the developed world.
All of this is very bad news. I suspect there is going to be increasing pressure from the elites of both the developed world and the countries with alot of young people - like Africa and the Middle East - to open the floodgates to immigration, as these young people can now be "productive workers" in Europe/America and this supposedly happens for the benefit of all - except for those pesky things called race, language, religion, and culture. I wouldn't be surprised to see fascism in Europe again.
Or maybe I'm wrong and workers are just workers, money is everything, and the economists are right - as long as we have McDonalds and Walmart, people are happy.
How accurate do you believe these world demographic predictions are? Now, the world population is supposed to peak in 2050 during a BAU projection. I think it is quite difficult to predict fertility rates when you think about potential problems of the future, such as a complete collapse of the social safety net.
I am not sure how people will be moving around country to country in the future, will mass movements of people even be possible?
will mass movements of people even be possible?
The Trans-Siberian Railroad is already electrified (and largely powered by hydro). China is building 3 standard gauge rail lines from China to the EU.
Etc.
Alan
I noted a large disparity between men & women above age 35. I assume that this is emigre #'s.
They are willing to import men of all ages (depending upon skills needed) but only younger women. The easiest solution is when one group of emigres leave, not to replace them. Underlying population growth is massive but this will buy some space.
Building Combined Cycle NG fired generation will reduce NG consumption (for a given MWh) by roughly 1/3rd. When the alternative is burning oil, the economics of combined cycle look VERY good.
Cooling water is required for the steam cycle and possible sources are wastewater (Austin and Phoenix use this, Austin for 400 MW combined cycle, Phoenix for 3,600 MW nukes) and the Persian Gulf. Produced water from oil wells is another possibility (just reinject it a little warmer :-) Using seawater after being warmed for desalination would be energy efficient.
Iran is selling NG and is next door to Kuwait but politics ...
Alan
This is consistent with Sam's projections for Saudi Arabia:
http://www.energybulletin.net/image/uploads/38948/image011.png
As in the movie "The Sixth Sense," for most of us our ever expanding auto centric suburban way of life is dead, but most of us don't know it yet and we only see what we want to see.
The shoes keep dropping...
For the past several months there's been a steady run on photocopier paper boxes at NB Power's head office -- you know, the ones you swipe from the mail room when you pack up your personal belongings and ride down that lonely elevator for the last time. And it isn't just mid and senior-level managers who are jumping ship. On January 26th of this year, David Hay, the President and CEO of NB Power abruptly resigned, claiming that it "feels like the right time to move on."
Translation: "I can't take anymore of this f-n bullsh!t."
Today, we learn that Francis McGuire, the Chairman of NB Power has likewise resigned (see: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/04/01/nb-francis-mcgui...). In his letter of resignation, Francis writes: "It is evident now, more than ever, that significant challenges face NB Power. However, I have the utmost confidence that the team we have in place will help guide the utility through these challenges, keeping the best interests of New Brunswickers at the forefront of the future direction of NB Power."
Translation: "You're on your own, boys".
The canary in this cage is dead.
Cheers,
Paul
When people say that there is no way that we could lose electrical power, I say that there are quite a few ways it could happen. One is financial problems that no one can bail out. It sounds like NB Power is demonstrating another one--maybe not yet, but in a few years from now.
Hi Gail,
This utility may very well be caught in a death spiral. As previously mentioned, its debt is out of control, one of its major hydroelectric dams will soon require a multi-billion dollar refurbishment and it's Point Lepreau nuclear generating station is slowly bleeding them dry. Moreover, successive governments have kept electricity rates artificially low, which has starved the utility of the funds required to properly manage its business.
NB Power will need to raise rates significantly over the coming years, but as they do so, they risk losing load, e.g., major power consumers will either close up shop or move out of province, install co-generation or invest in conservation. It's a fine balancing act and if they can pull this off, it will be nothing short of a miracle.
Cheers,
Paul
So, NB Power goes bankrupt. The bondholders get left with receivership (and the province can no longer borrow money).
Rates triple, and the lights stay on 99+% of the time.
There are NOT "quite a few ways" to totally lose electrical power.
Best Hopes for Realism,
Alan
BTW, several resolutions for NB Power bankruptcy. Quebec offers bondholders 62 cents on the dollar. The monopoly on distributing power is revoked. NB raises taxes and buys back NB Power. Federal bailout. Sale and leaseback of assets. And more.
In 1919, most of the utilities (electric. gas, transit) in New Orleans were bankrupt.
Bankrupt utilities are nothing new.
Alan
A few realistic ways to totally lose electrical power.
1. solar events
2. atmospheric nuclear detonation / EMP (I could have listed these separately)
3. fuel shortage (I could list each type of fuel separately)
4. weather damage (I could list each type separately)
5. demand overload
6. maintenance failure
7. good, old-fashioned screw-up
8. war
9. societal collapse
10. aliens
9 out of 10 ain't bad.
Few, if any, of these are likely to be "total" loss of electrical power.
Total is complete and multi-decades (if not forever).
The town of Niagara has 2.5 GW of hydro within a couple of miles, as an example of an unlikely site for total loss of electricity.
Alan
a slow day on the DB might be a good time to ask some open questions i have about the announced opening of parts of the E coast to oil & gas leasing...
will major foreign NOC's be able to bid? (I assume they would be.)
Should we assume the same pattern of ownership as obtains in the GOM will obtain for these new leases? Or has the industry shifted and will EXXon, Shell, BP, etc get outbid as they were in Iraq? Is that a realistic possibility?
what would be the political fallout if US companies do not win rights to develop the leases? ...or...
what would be the PR fallout to the major IOC's if they win the leases and just sit on them and do not develop rapidly?
If Chinese refineries are running close to 100% and US refineries are running at 80% and China starts to acquire not only more refining capacity in the Western Hemisphere but development rights, well...
I can see some people having problems with that...just sayin...
I am not convinced there is much of anything worth bidding for that has been included in yesterday's announcement. There has been drilling in the area before, and nothing found. There is nothing onshore that might "spill over" to offshore. What is being offered are definitely second (or third) rate locations.
To me, the announcement is just political theatrics. There may be a little oil, but quite deep, so very expensive and very slow to produce.
ok. that is my impression from what little research I have done, that the actual crude involved would be deep, sub-salt as in off-shore Brazil.
so...basically Thunderhorse type risks, Thunderhorse type expenses, but without the prospect of Thunderhorse type payoffs.
next rhetorical question- domestic oil companies need to replace reserves to maintain their share prices, correct? If company X was to bid on some leases, drill some test wells, could they not lay claim to added reserves (boosting share price) and then never actually develop the leases (spend the mega $ necessary and threaten profits).
i guess where i am going with this is... empty political theater, i get it.
But major oil companies are political actors in their own right and they are very soon going to be facing some sullen and dissatisfied shareholders and customers.
My impression is that most of the unallotted offshore is of this nature, and that "Drill-Drill-Drill" was just another hollow political slogan.
If someone knows of a likely resource in a reserved area I have certainly yet to hear about it.
sl -- Any company certified by the MMS can bid on offshore leases. The ownership of the company is not a factor. The Brazilian company Petrobras has been a big leasor in the offshore GOM in recent years. Production from gov't leases cannot be sold outside the countey without gov't approval. In fact, the gov't can take its royalty share in the actual physical oil if it choices. But swaps can be made to save transport costs: at one time Alaskan crude was sold to Japan but they bought crude closer to the Us and did the swap that way.
Political fall out? Not if folks think about it for a moment: If China spend X billions developing oil in Fed waters and those Y millions of bbls of oil are shipped to US refiners who's going to complain? Would folks be happier if it were ExxonMobil? Yeah...right. The American public is in love with XOM.
thx for reply- rings a bell now.
So none of this potential crude would be going to Chinese Aruba or Venezuela refineries.
seems like a good deal for US refiners... one of those hidden subsidies that x rails against I guess.
Maine Heating Oil Group Clarifies Opposition to Wind Power Bill
See: http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/maine-heating-oil-group-clarifies-opposit...
Electric resistance heat may not be cost competitive with home heating oil at today's prices, but a good quality heat pump changes everything. At $2.80 a gallon, one million BTUs of oil heat costs $23.70 (85% AFUE), and at 15-cents per kWh, electric resistance is $43.96 per MM BTUs. However, this same amount of heat supplied by a mid-efficiency heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 comes in at $17.58 and an ultra high efficiency model such as the Fujitsu 12RLS can do the same job for $12.56 -- the equivalent of oil selling at $2.08 and $1.48 a gallon, respectively.
The 12RLS can be purchased online for less than $1,500.00, including shipping and handling.
Cheers,
Paul
The question may be how expensive the offshore wind power would be. This article talks about the wholesale price of electricity from offshore wind near Rhode Island originally being offered at 30.7 cents /kWh, and more recently at 24.4 cents /kWh. Both offers were turned down. It seems like the retail rice would be at least 5 cent/kWh higher, so probably up in the 30 cents / kWh range. And it wouldn't be just home heating that would be expensive, everything else that uses electricity would be expensive.
The Cape Wind project off Massachusetts will be decided soon. The question is whether it will be equally expensive.
Hi Gail,
I don't know how on and offshore wind stack-up, but according to the U.S. DOE, "wind power prices have been competitive with wholesale power market prices over the past few years. They claim that "[a]lthough there is quite a bit of variability within some regions, in most regions the average wind power price was below the range of average wholesale prices in 2007."
Source: http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/emp/reports/lbnl-275e.pdf
There's excellent wind generation potential in northern Maine, which is one of the reasons why Emera has agreed to purchase Maine Public Service.
Cheers,
Paul
Hi Paul,
Roughly what does a good heat pump installation, lock , stock , and barrel, run in the Northeast these days?
Of course this would have to be just a range for a fairly typical job. And of course a house with an oil firnace might have usuable existing ductwork.
Hi OFM,
I'm not sure. One of my partners who has a forced air oil system bought a conventional 2 ton heat pump (13 SEER/7.7 HSPF) and I believe the installed cost was less than $3,000.00 (he bought it wholesale through our firm and a buddy of mine installed it for him on the side). He recouped his investment by the end of the second heating system. My other partner who has hot water baseboards bought three Sanyo ductless units and I believe his final cost came to just over $6,000.00. Again, these units were purchased through a wholesaler and installed "after hours", so going the normal route will cost you more.
The average cost of fuel oil in Halifax is currently $0.849 a litre or $3.20 per US gallon (source: http://mjervin.com/WPPS_Public.htm) and we pay just under $0.12 per kWh for electricity. At 85% AFUE, oil heat works out to be 9.68-cents per kWh(e) whereas the aforementioned Fujitsu clocks in at 3.35-cents, thus making oil heat nearly three times more expensive.
Personally, if I had a forced air heating system I would still go ductless to take advantage of their higher efficiency. I would also install an ECM blower motor on the furnace and use the low-fan setting to circulate heat around the house; at these lower settings, an ECM motor might draw as little as 20-watts.
Cheers,
Paul
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseri...
Take a gander at that link. It shows Arctic ice extent. Look at the blue line which is ascending up close to the average line for the 1979-2000 time period.
I'm not drawing any conclusions here, so please do not freak out and claim I'm trying to make an argument against global warming. I'm not, just providing a link for those so interested.
You won't get much comment on that today. The congregation are all over at RC praying for a new summer ice extent minimum! And Gavin has a pointy hat on this week!LOL.
Get back to me in 10 years with global numbers because you obviously are trying to make a GW argument or you wouldn't mention it.
I could just as easily argue that the unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper midwest this week are proof the other way. My wife was talking about turning the AC on, and we just hit April!
Global numbers and long-term trends or it's nonsense.
No, I specifically stated this was not an argument against global warming. In fact all signs point to global warming, so that is why I found that latest ice extent line going up so late in the season to be of interest.
Ah, well in that case it is interesting, but mostly in the context of "what is going on here?".
It's a somewhat unusual freeze pattern, and it does mean that an awful lot of this year's sea ice coverage is going to be even thinner than your typical first year icepack.
This *might* mean a faster and more extensive summer melt than we've seen before as this thinner ice rolls back faster than we've seen before, or the increased coverage of more reflective ice *might* slow this year's summer melt. Either way it's going to be October before we really know.
From Follow the Trace up top:
Seriously, do we actually need this type of doomer porn stuff on here? I think some of our dark writers need to get a grip - they still have to live their lives as they are, even if they find them boring and humdrum - the end of the world is not going to happen any time soon. This stuff is just childish.
It's possible to disagree with both camps:
You merely state the obvious. Of COURSE the world isn't going to end! This has nothing to do with biblical apocalypticism. You're guilty of the fallacy of representativeness: passages such as the one you quote look apocalyptic to you; therefore, that's what it is.
The end of the world is the least of our problems. It won't come, no matter how hard you may wish for it.
As for the passage itself: a load of rubbish. How does the writer know exactly how and when the crisis is going to manifest itself? He doesn't, and neither does anyone else.
You have to know what you're preparing for before you can prepare for it. A gander into our futures is simply not in the cards for us.
Therefore;
I have to remind myself constantly that the American mind is totally literal, and irony-free. I forget that to my cost. Of course the "world isn't going to end any time soon", but I fear you miss the entire point of my post. Oh well - I'll try much harder next time to be less figurative and really literal ... would that help you?
You're point is well-taken, but it's hard to know, especially in America, whether someone is taking "apocalyptic" language literally. That's why I try to avoid it altogether.
Some peakers use apocalyptic language as a rhetorical strategy to gain attention. Big mistake.
Some anti-peakers use apocalyptic language in order to completely dismiss the idea of peak oil. Big mistake.
Unfortunately, apocalypticism is a historical reality and we're stuck with it. That's why I keep jumping on it.
My view: The world is not going to end no matter how bad things get. You might wish for it to end, but wishes don't mean shite.
In my view, it is much, much more doomish not knowing what is going to happen, but knowing that something is going to happen, that it will happen, but we can't know when nor how. Walking blindly over the peak, as we seem to be doing, is just dreadful.
I understand "speculators" are driving up oil prices again. That's what the news is telling me. I don't believe them.
I can't trust the primary sources of public information in this country. How doomish is that? Apocalyptic!
Hi Cargill,
Where does one go when it comes time to burn rubber and how does one get there safely? Presumably, if the world is going to hell in a hand basket, things will be bad everywhere, or soon will be. Can we assume that fuel shortages will hit the outlying areas hardest in the event of a major supply disruption or mass panic? If so, best hope that motor home or tow vehicle that gets 8 or 10 MPG can get you to your ultimate destination without refueling. These folks are hoping to outrun a tsunami on crutches.
Cheers,
Paul
I don't think things will be bad everywhere. At least, not as bad. Like William Gibson said, "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed."
There may be some areas suffering catastrophes, but most people "bugging out" will be in search of work, like the Dust Bowl migrants, or just wanting to be with friends or family. The collapse of the housing market has made it difficult for people to move. I think it makes sense for some people to invest in a mobile home. I mean that literally: a home that can be moved, rather than in land that can't. Investing everything in a farm has its risks. What if climate change makes the area uninhabitable, or at least not suitable for farming? What if the local government raises taxes to the point you can't afford them? What if the neighbors turn hostile, for reasons that aren't foreseeable now?
I think I've mentioned before that I have a friend who has fixed up a van to run on biodiesel, with a composting toilet. He's shipping it to Hawaii, where he plans to park it in front of friend's house and live in it. His mom would like to move as well, but she's tied to her house. Can't afford to sell it without losing her shirt, so she's staying put, hoping the housing market recovers.
Hi Leanan,
I'm afraid my view on this is more pessimistic than your own. I don't believe we have the ability to outrun events under these more extreme scenarios, or if we do, any advantage will be fleeting. We can expect conditions to quickly deteriorate across the board as multiple, interlocked systems begin to fail and as we're forced to make critical, life altering decisions based on incomplete data and second guesses. Some areas may be better positioned to weather the storm, at least initially, but they'll come under continual stress as more "refuges" flood in. In fact, things could turn particularly nasty if local residents take steps to protect their own self-interest.
Cheers,
Paul
I'm surprised to hear this from you. If things are going to be that bad, why bother with high-efficiency lighting?
Anything is possible, especially if things go "nonlinear" (nuclear war, say). But events of the past couple of years have reinforced my suspicion that things just won't happen that fast. Collapse will look more like New Orleans than like Mad Max. That is, there may be times and places where things are a Mad Max nightmare...but it won't be everywhere, and it won't be a straight shot down. Order will be restored, and there will be a recovery. Few will notice the overall trend downwards.
Sure. But that's not really the point. The question is whether it's better to have the option to leave, or not. After all, just because you can move, doesn't mean you have to.
Hi Leanan,
Actually, I'm not a doomer, although I do succumb to my darker thoughts occasionally. I fully expect we'll muddle our way through most anything, except some of the more extreme scenarios sketched out here. What I'm suggesting is that it's naive to think we can somehow shield ourselves from the effects of a "complete breakdown of the economy and any sort of cohesiveness or order" or otherwise minimize the pain thereof. Under these conditions, is it better to stay or run? Will we be in a position to know the answer if we're gripped in fear? We try to make reasonable decisions based on logic and fact, but I don't believe we'll have that luxury if all hell breaks loose. Moreover, even when we convince ourselves that we've made the right call, we often prove ourselves sadly mistaken -- a couple of Drumbeats ago I spoke of the smart engineers at DEC who deceived themselves into thinking that the Japanese were their primary threat in the PC market when it was the incompatibility of their hardware with the emerging IBM standard. I believe the same mistakes in judgment apply here.
Cheers,
Paul
I don't think anyone, including the author of that piece, thinks that it's possible to shield yourself completely. She's suggesting preparing for it, without any guarantee that it will work.
Except...if you're one of those who are expecting it, and have prepared for it, then it won't be a panic decision. It will be something you've thought about for a long time. In that sense, I think you can "minimize the pain."
Which is exactly why I think a "bug out vehicle" is reasonable. It doesn't cost much, so it's not like you're losing anything by having one. If you're wrong, not much lost. Basically, it's a "what if I'm wrong" option.
Hi Leanan,
The author suggests that we can mitigate or otherwise offset the effects of a "complete breakdown of the economy and any sort of cohesiveness or order". My position can be summarized as "Good luck with that!". I like to think that I'm reasonably well prepared for most anything life throws me and I'll be a truly fortunate soul if that's even remotely true. But, realistically speaking, there's very little I can do to prepare for civil disobedience and general lawlessness or the complete breakdown of our economy. And the realty is that few things go to plan. We can make all the plans in the world, but sometimes you have to improvise and fly by the seat of your pants. Would I be scared? Damn straight! Can I count on making good, sound choices? Not bloody likely.
The underlying assumption is that at a time of crisis a bug-out vehicle will improve your odds of survival and in the event of a natural disaster that might be true. But under these circumstances, I'm not so sure. What it may encourage us to do is make what will be in hindsight some rather poor choices because there will be no straight line from "A" to "B"; as we progress along our journey the opportunities to make a fatal misstep quickly multiply.
Cheers,
Paul
I think she has a different definition of "complete breakdown" than you do. She is obviously expecting a certain amount of order, since she's still planning to go to town for supplies. She talks about neighbors raiding your home while you're gone...but she's still planning to go back afterwards, so the breakdown is apparently of a temporary nature (a la Katrina).
Some might consider the Great Depression a complete breakdown of the economy. I think it was, actually. And that is something you can prepare for.
What would you suggest people do instead? Buy a house or farm? Most people cannot do that without going into debt (and many would not qualify even if they were willing to do that). Rent? That's an option, but then you cannot really make improvements (weatherization, solar panels, etc.), and if you have to leave (to get a job, to take care of your ailing parents), you lose all your preparations.
A couple of people over at PO.com lost all their preps when they divorced, and the spouse got the house. Ironically, the spouses didn't care much about peak oil, but they got the solar panels, garden, etc., anyway.
Hi Leanan,
I'm not so sure our understanding of "complete breakdown" is all that far apart given what the author writes; to whit:
Riots? Violence? Cordoning-off of roads? Interment camps? Wandering byways begging for food? This seems rather apocalyptic to me. And to be clear, I'm not offering any prescriptive advice. I'm simply challenging the author's assertion that we can prepare ourselves for our personal Armageddon by purchasing and stocking up a bug-out vehicle.
When I speak of plans going awry, a half dozen scenarios come to mind. One is that I'm traveling down a highway in my bug-out vehicle and come across a small child laying in the middle of the road covered in blood. Thinking that the child is badly injured, I stop and get out to offer assistance when suddenly I hear the cocking of a shotgun as the father steps out from the woods. I've been ambushed and left abandoned on the side of the roads with no vehicle, no cash and none of my worldly possessions (of course, I could have been left dead). Now, at this point, am I really any further ahead?
Cheers,
Paul
She sounds fairly typical of the "survivalist" type. She's expecting a period of unrest. Like Katrina. They had all that - riots, violence, shelters, cordoning off roads, roads no longer safe. But it was temporary.
Quite possibly. After all, you could be still alive. If the author's premise is correct, those who couldn't leave are dead. In any case, you're not any worse off. (Me, I wouldn't stop.)
However, I don't see a bug out vehicle as a preparation for a Mad-Max scenario. (Other than living in an RV would be a lot more comfortable than living in a Corolla.) Rather, it's more for a Great Depression or Katrina type situation. A good balance between owning and renting, and not so expensive you have to go into debt to do it.
Hi Leanan,
We'll, no worse off provided the father doesn't pull the trigger. There are two things we're trying to resolve. One, am I safer out on the road at a time of crisis or am I better off hunkering down in my home and/or banding together with my neighbours? I'm not sure we can determine the correct answer to this. Secondly, if I do venture out, can I count on making the right choices at each of the decision points along the way. What if the road is blocked and I have to turn around and find some alternate route? What do I do if my vehicle breaks down or I run out of gas (or there's simply none to be found)? Where can I pull off for the night and be safe? What if some thug forces me off the road at gunpoint? What if I get to my planned destination and find conditions there are no better than where I left? Where do I go now? What if I run low on cash?
With natural and man made disasters, flight is likely your best option. But here we're talking about a complete breakdown in society -- looting, rioting, general lawlessness, vigilantly justice and who knows what else. Are any of us really prepared to deal with that?
Cheers,
Paul
There's crisis, and there's crisis. Having a "bugout vehicle" would be a good preparation NOW. It's cheaper than a house. You can invest in energy efficiency, in a way you can't if you rent. You can take it with you, if you have to move to where the jobs are, where you family is, or where your spouse isn't. You admit that it would be helpful in the case of natural disasters.
But when I point that out, you say everything's going to collapse, so there's no point. Then you say you're not a doomer, and you think we'll muddle through.
I really don't understand where you're coming from.
I agree...so why criticize someone who wants to be mobile? They have as good a chance of being right as anyone. What harm is there in preparing?
Hi Leanan,
Well, to be clear, I don't subscribe to these extreme views, but that's not my issue. My point is that if you believe conditions will deteriorate to this level (i.e., mass riots, internment camps, a complete breakdown of the economy, etc.), it's not unreasonable to ask if a flight to the countryside will markedly improve my odds of survival because, as I see it, I'm effectively trading off one set of risks for another.
The author is presenting us with a prescription (i.e., salvation from the horrors that will unfold before us) but says nothing about the treatment or our long-term prognosis. Will there be electricity? I wouldn't count on it given that a collapse of our cities will most assuredly take down the grid. Fine, let's go on that assumption. Will there be gasoline to refuel my car or motor home? Most likely not, especially if there's widespread panic buying, a collapse in the fuel distribution system and no electricity to operate the pumps. OK, there's a good chance I'll be stuck wherever I happen to be at that point in time, so what should I plan to do now? Will I be any safer out on the road or will the violence follow behind me or greet me around the next bend? Presumably the ne'er-do-wells will seize any opportunities to further their gain and will not lack the means to achieve it. Will the outlying towns and villages en route welcome me as a refuge or will they see me as a threat to their survival? I probably shouldn't make any assumptions in this regard. What do I do when my supplies of food, medicine and other basic necessities run low? Will a three month supply buy me enough time for society to right itself? Will cash be accepted as legal tender or will I need to barter? If the latter, what can I offer in return?
There are so many unanswered questions and if the author had taken the time to touch on a any of these points I might be in a better position to judge the merits of her advice, but, as it is now, I'm left to wonder if my odds of surviving a collapse of this kind are any better if I flee, stay put or evacuate to an internment camp. So, yes, it's great to have each of these options, but let's be clear about two things: each carries it own set of risks and rewards and no one option is inherently superior to all others; secondly, when forced to make such a choice, we shouldn't count on making the "right" one because we may not be in a position to properly assess all of the implications. Those are my two points of contention.
Cheers,
Paul
The article is an excerpt from a book written awhile back (which is why I didn't link it directly - it's years old, and has been posted here before). I think it's clear that Katrina is the situation she's thinking about. A situation where things are bad, but not necessarily permanently so, and not equally bad everywhere.
As for the accuracy of her predictions...who knows? One thing that's clear is that humans are really, really bad at predicting the future. We are terrible, even when predicting the results of things we have previously experienced. We know the last new car we bought didn't make us happier, but that doesn't stop us from thinking this one will. Women don't remember how painful childbirth was, or we'd all be only children.
The best way to predict the future is to look at other people's experiences...and try to resist thinking that it will be different this time. So it may be that using Katrina as a template is a very reasonable thing to do.
The excerpt reminds me that Katrina made me much more pessimistic about the future...for awhile. But as that disaster fades into the past, so is the pessimism it engendered. Which is human nature, but not necessarily realistic.
I don't think anyone is disputing that, including the author of the article we are discussing. However, if we accept that the future is unknowable and that humans are really, really terrible at predictions, then keeping your options open is a smart thing to do.
Moreover, it passes my test for reasonable preparations: it makes sense now, even if the worst doesn't happen.
Hi Leanan,
We both agree that having an evacuation plan and means of escape makes good sense; as stated above, at a time of natural or man made disaster flight is likely your best option. Where we disagree is in our respective interpretations of the nature and severity of the events she describing. Linda appears to be talking about something far more extreme than a Katrina. In her words:
Note the word "IF" is capitalized. She then goes on to explain why a 3-day bug-out bag in the boot of the Dodge won't cut it:
So it's obvious that we're not talking about a hurricane or some other short term or localized event. She's telling us that we need to prepare for mass die-off and pretty much the end of the world as we know it. And she thinks that running into town for groceries in assorted motor homes under this grim set of circumstances will help protect her from the "locusts"? Frankly, the lady is delusional.
Cheers,
Paul
The "popular press" version of Katrina and what actually happened are two different things.
Survival was built on sharing. The common rule was whoever scored food or something to drink got a double share and shared the rest.
Violence was WIDELY overstated. Much of the gunfire was people stranded on rooftops trying to call attention to themselves. No relief personnel had a gunshot wound. (The police did kill several unnecessarily at Danzinger bridge).
Relief was directed to evacuate all Republican areas first. For example, 14 buses for Gretna (no flooding, just power out) underneath the West Bank side of the Mississippi River bridge. On the East Bank side of the bridge was the Convention Center, but any who tried to cross on foot were shot at by Gretna police.
There was a dry open road to the Convention Center at all times once the winds died down. (the HOV lane of the Mississippi River bridge), but relief and evacuation buses were not allowed in. Instead buses and relief were sent to much less impacted Republican areas first.
Alan
Well, this is where we part company I guess ... I don't think there will ever be a time when we need to "burn rubber" urgently. Things will decay and get worse I expect, but very unevenly, and possibly very selectively.
With my usual caveat that I think the Boomers will out live (and out die) any apocalyptic dramas, how you choose to live the next 20-30 years need not be based on doomster scenarios, but more likely, good strategies to mitigate the worst of very severe economic constraints.
Personally, we have chosen to live in a secure apartment block, in a city of 350,000, with good warm climate, good rain and water, and many other resources. Other people will make different choices of course. Stocking up a mobile home is a little rash I think - and just possibly includes some wishful thinking!
Hi Cargill,
The wishful thinking/false hope aspect bothers me too, but recommending a particular course of action without properly disclosing the potential risks associated with it I find especially troubling.
Cheers,
Paul
Nomadics can be a perfectly sensible lifestyle choice for some people. I can see that really working out well for a certain type of person who has no personal ties to a particular place and has the type of skill set that can easilly find employment in multiple locations.
Not for me, though. I've set down roots and am very much tied into my small town. I like it here. Here is where I make my last stand. If things really do get that bad, maybe I'll pay for it with my life. If things really do get that bad, my life expectancy approaches zero anyway. Given a choice, I'd rather go down side by side with my neighbors, fighting for our homes, than to be ambushed out in the middle of nowhere, all alone.
For those who don't even KNOW their neighbors, and can't trust them, I suppose it would be different. A very sad and sick state of affairs, if you ask me. If you can't do something to change that NOW, why wait until TSHTF to bug out? Why not get out of there right now, and start putting down roots in a more promising community?
I can think of several reasons. As Greer points out, whatever you do has to make economic sense now, not in your imagined future. Not least because the future may not unfold as you imagine. If you have a good job and own a house, giving them up to move somewhere else is risky...especially since it may not work out.
As I'm sure you know, city and suburban people often do not fit in when they try to move to a small town or rural area. Even if you do your best, IME, you will not be considered "one of us" rather than "one of them" in your lifetime. That's just how it is in the boondocks. I know of more than one peak oiler who moved to a rural area to prepare for the powerdown, then moved back to the city because they did not fit in.
As for me...I would like to be with my family. I think that will be worth more than anything if things get really bad. But I can't afford to live where they live now, and I also think there's a high possibility that it will end up being one of the worst places in the world to live if TSHTF. So I think the best thing I can do is keep my options open.
As to fitting in to a small town, it really does depend on the town. Where I live, people have been moving in from elsewhere for over a century now, and still are, so it has not been all that difficult for me to integrate into the local community. There are plenty of small towns that are very insular, though, and it would be very difficult to fit in.
I'd suggest to anyone looking to relocate to a small town that they look for one that is home to a small college. College towns are going to have a population of professors and students who are not locals, and the locals are therefore going to be used to there being non-locals around. You might also find it easier to strike up friendships with the college people, too. The small college might not survive long-term, but once it goes a lot of the people who worked there will be stuck there, so you won't be the only "outsider" around.
I think that works better if you're somewhat similar to the people already there. The right skin color, the right religion, etc.
Why on earth would you want to move to a place where the "right" skin colour and the "right" religion matter at all? Sounds appalling ... much better off staying in diverse, accepting cities, where real, genuine, people live.
That is indeed a calculation many people make. But many also fear that cities will be the worst place to be when TSHTF.
You can see why many are undecided about where to live.
Cities would be the absolute worst place to be. If you want to take your life in your hands then by all means, move to a city. If you enjoy dealing with things like this, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/25/us/25mobs.html I'm sure they're great. I believe that the saying "Idle hands are the devil's tools," rings true.
There's also the risk of terrorism, and who knows what geopolitics will look like in the future. I have never liked ICBMs pointed just a few miles from my house, they exist for a reason.
There are *FAR* worse examples in conservative, rural America.
Pulling a nigg*r down the road with chains behind their pick-up, tying a gay teenager to a fence and beating him to death, "settling scores' with a deer rifle or shotgun.
And "conservatives" are the greatest threat for future terrorism in the USA, a greater threat than al-Queda.
Rural Wisconsin may be safe (not many conservatives there), but any rural area dominated by conservatives is going to be risky if you do not "belong".
Alan
I was thinking New Hampshire.
Although the conservatives of New Hampshire are of the *MUCH* better classic conservative ilk, I would still take Vermont :-)
Rural areas of many "red" states are amongst the worst places to be when TSHTF.
Alan
I agree WNC. Hunker down and hold a defensive position. Make the marauders come to you, rather than you accidentally going to them. You can grow your own food, or at least store more than you could being mobile. You know the neighborhood, so strangers stick out like a sore thumb, making security much easier. Nothing like familiarity of a locale should the basic parameters of life deteriorate. Also, if we are talking about collapse, then where is the gasoline going to come from to stay mobile? If it is available, but is much more expensive than it currently is, then how does paying a huge amount for fuel for a vehicle that gets 8 mpg make sense? What will be left for extremely expensive food? I'll stay put thanks.
I am really staggered and amazed (as an Australian, or possibly just as a sensible human being) that people here can write this stuff without any apparent irony or chuckling.
Do people here really believe they're going to be sitting in their farm compound in Podunk Indiana pretty soon, with a muzzle-loading rifle, beating off a few hundred escapees from the cities, until they run out of their last few bullets, and are over-run - a la The Alamo?
You people really do watch too much TV. Time to get beyond the Mickey Mouse Club I think.
I'm a descendant of a well to do Hungarian family, my grandfather was a physician and owned a farm, during WWII they had to walk away from their home in the dead of the night through the forest. My mother, a young girl at the time has told me the stories of how they survived...
Guess what, they didn't watch any TV, reality can be really F'd up!
Things have gotten that bad in cities occasionally, but in podunk Indiana I doubt it would get that bad.