The Rise and fall of the Australian gas provinces

This link from the SMH is a little old (from back in December) but its worth noting what the Australian Energy Market Operator (combining Nemmco's old electricity market operator role with that of the gas market as well) views as the outlook for the eastern states natural gas and coal seam gas supply - Rise and fall of the gas provinces.

THE gas market will see a fundamental shift over the next two decades as gas-fired electricity generation expands under the Federal Government's carbon reduction scheme. Victoria's gas reserves will plunge and Queensland will become the dominant gas supplier on the east coast.

The forecast is contained in the first so-called ''Statement of Opportunities'' for gas released today by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which took over the running of the electricity market from the National Electricity Market Management Company earlier this year, and also took responsibility for the gas market.

By the end of the two decades Victoria could be down to 10 years of gas reserves - or less - forcing it to consider sourcing gas from other states for the first time, which will boost its gas price significantly.

NSW is likely to be forced to turn increasingly to Queensland for gas, although the wild card is locally sourced gas, as the exploration push for coal-seam methane gas gets under way in earnest in this state.

According to the AEMO, NSW will experience a doubling in gas reserves from 2025, largely thanks to an anticipated rise in gas reserves around Camden, to Sydney's south-west, as less gas is available from Victoria. Reserves from other regions such as Narrabri and Casino, in the state's north, are not yet significant.

The forecast suggests Queensland's domestic annual gas demand will treble to 458 petajoules by 2029 from 166PJ, and export demand for liquefied natural gas will reach 1302PJ by 2029. Victoria's annual demand will almost double to 403PJ by 2024.

But the big change will come from an expected 55 per cent drop in Victoria's gas reserves to 4344PJ by 2029, equal to just 10 years of production. But strong economic growth between now and then could reduce it to just seven years of reserves by then.

This anticipated decline will result from a rise in demand in Victoria, and elsewhere, coupled with falling reserves as Bass Strait's large oil and gasfields near the end of their life.

At the same time, South Australia's reserves are expected to fall by a quarter to 1075PJ, equal to 14 years of production.

Under these forecasts, NSW will need extra pipeline capacity from 2012, as well as Victoria, marginally at first but more significantly from 2017.

''All of the pipelines in Queensland … will be exceeded from between 2010 and 2013,'' the AEMO said.

NSW will need additional gas pipelines linking to Queensland, which may result in the long-mooted Hunter to Queensland pipeline proceeding.

In total, domestic gas demand in the eastern states will double to 1205PJ a year by 2029 from 626PJ now.

Over this period the NSW annual gas demand will reach 199PJ, up from 130PJ now, but well below Queensland and Victoria, largely due to the lack of sizeable gas reserves in NSW, coupled with its higher price relative to other states.

This article partly illustrates the insanity of exporting a valuable fossil fuel like natural gas which is somewhat less polluting than coal.

We will need all the NG we have in order to transition to non polluting energy souces such as geothermal,solar thermal,wind and,dare I mention the taboo word,nuclear.

NG can be used in the transportation sector to replace imported oil.I suspect that our balance of payments are not going to improve over the present abysmal level.Selling off NG for a song is typical of the crazy policies of the present "junta".

Well - if you read my articles on Australian gas you'll see I conclude we could last for 70+ years using gas for all our power generation, household use, transport and with increased LNG exports - so we have plenty of time to transition to renewable energy - even at our abysmally slow pace...

I now wonder about the true Greenhouse Effect of coal mining, say in the Hunter Valley. Presumably a lot of coal-seam methane gets vented into the atmosphere when the coal is broken up, but I can't see it being accounted-for in the calculation of Coal's equivalent CO2 emissions.

Yes,well,I guess we just have to keep selling off the farm in order to keep paying for the Chinese toys,the Japanese,Korean and European cars, the overseas holidays,the 5 bathroom McMansions in the Burban Bubbles and the millions of useless mouths we are importing.

I'm not so sure how long this can continue not being an inhabitant of the Burban Bubble or a follower of Dr Pangloss.

In this case "the farm' is something that will become obsolete as we switch to renewables, so I don't see that there is a problem with selling it (there are environmental problems associated with extracting and burning it of course).

As for burban bubbles, immigrants and Panglossian attitudes, I remain unsure as to why you have a problem with them (OK - I don't like McMansions because they are ugly en-masse, don't leave space for gardens and are horribly energy inefficient - but if powered with renewable energy I'd be hard pressed to keep complaining about them...)

Gav,I am well aware that you are a comfortable soul.It may be interesting to see what your reaction will be when events on the larger stage take you out of your comfort zone.

That remains to be seen.

In the meantime, you didn't address the point I was making - is your objection simply to selling our gas to overseas customers because they are foreign, or is there some substance to your complaint ?

I thought I had made it quite clear in my original comment that I regard selling off a valuable fossil fuel to overseas buyers (whoever thay may be)is contrary to our longer term national interest as we will need these resources.

The prevalent short term thinking by government and industry in Australia is going to be the cause of a lot of grief down the track.

If that is not enough "substance" for you then it appears I am wasting my time in this conversation.

And I made it quite clear there is more than 70 years of supply left, even if we use gas for all power generation, all transport and dramatically expand LNG exports (ie. it will most likely be well over a century before it is used up).

That is more than enough time to fully switch to renewables (hell - even fusion might be practical in that time frame) - hence there is no problem.

So your objection is baseless as far as I can tell - and this most recent comment proves it given that you have failed to provide any evidence to support your assertion and instead just get on your high horse and complain about 'wasting your time".

I don't know where you are getting the 70 years supply information from.Perhaps you can write an article on the subject.However,70 or 700 years, it is irrelevant to my argument.

As for fusion - pull the other leg.

As for my failing to provide evidence to support my assertions,it should be obvious that I am not attempting to have some sort of scientific discussion about gas reserves.What I am trying to do is highlight the big picture and express an opinion of where I think we are going wrong.This is sometimes called reasoning from first principles,maybe contrary to conventional wisdom.It quite often involves thinking outside the box.

Now,I've got a fairly good idea about where you are coming from and it is evitable that I will not agree with a lot of your attitudes and opinions and vice versa.I believe it is in the TOD tradition to try and keep the conversation civil while still allowing robust debate.I intend to uphold that tradition.

But this thread has gone on far too long and has also been sidetracked.That is basically what I meant by wasting my time.This is my last post on this thread.

I don't see how you can "highlight the big picture" when you have no idea how much gas we have and how long it would last for.

I have analysed this - and I linked to the 2 relevant articles in the original post (they were also posted on TOD and had a fair amount of commentary ensue) - and then asked you to read these earlier in the comment thread.

If you go through the numbers and assume maximum possible usage, we have enough gas to last 70 odd years. There isn't a problem with exporting it (ie. building most of the planned LNG plants).

the millions of useless mouths we are importing.

You really want to be very careful saying such things!

I guess by this logic, you, or your parents, or your grandparents "useless mouths" shouldn't have been imported!
Why is it that being born in a country gives you unassailable rights, but being born on the same planet don't!!!
Aussie Aussie Aussie: OInk OInk OInk.

AND it defies the logic of your 'racist' complaint... as our resource nationalism and resource exportation, thirra, are supporting "useless mouths" overseas.

Whats that sound?

SP,a familiar response to anyone raising the problem of immigration to a country already overpopulated - scream RACISM , and - we are all immigrants etc etc ad nauseum and decidedly not to the point.

Just what part of the concept of exponential growth do you not understand?

You ARROGANT prat.

If you want to have an intelligent debate about immigration... don't start off with phrases like "useless mouths".

If you want to debate population growth - how about acknowledging the "useless mouths" that we create with baby bonuses. OR are they OK because they are 'our' ignorant mouths?

If you want to have an intelligent debate about anything - don't use the same rhetorical methods of the climate deniers.

When you say above that I have "screamed RACISM"... I had the manners to put it in quotes for you.
But if you can't see that your original statement, as it appeared, can be interpreted as racist - well what does that tell us?

I did lead off with the cautionary phrase "you should be careful" BUT you jumped to 'look, look, I'm being repressed'. Just like a climate denier.

And where do you get off telling me that I don't understand exponential growth!!
Again, a denier tool. Accuse your interlocutor of ignorance of a basic fact - out of the blue. As I made no such suggestion.

I am intimately aware of the power of exponential growth. But lets also acknowledge that consumption of high end product is also a significant factor. Are we Australians going to consume less willingly - and do our part? Can you see any indication that the growth model of economics is being seriously challenged in our political system?

I have just come back from a country where I lived my life (as a local) on $300 a month, with frequent power blackouts. Where the average person consumes less energy than you are using to piss around on the internet - and you deem them useless mouths.
The first thing I noticed when we got off the plane - 'everyone' is fat.

You come across as a resource nationalist. It's all ours. Can you say liebensraum?

By that, I'm suggesting you be careful where your logic takes you... the confrontational rhetoric you are adopting is not going to convince.

In any case thirra, those so called useless mouths we import, the ones that come in officially (and even many refugees)... they are among the best and brightest of there countries of birth: Doctors, engineers, nurses, teachers....

You see, we are poaching talent. It's cheaper than training our own.

More abuse!If you think that style of writing furthers your case,think again. You obviously suffer from the SIA Syndrome - Stupidity,Ignorance,Arrogance - combined with overweening self interest.

I'm sure your skills are needed more in your country of origin than in Australia.I suggest you do the right thing and return there post haste.You are not needed here,nor wanted.

Thirra - cut it out.

SP's criticisms are by and large correct.

So,you are OK with hysterical and abusive comments?

Well there we have it.

I'm sure your skills are needed more in your country of origin than in Australia. I suggest you do the right thing and return there post haste.You are not needed here, nor wanted.

Since no comment has been added, and I have had some time to research, I am editing this page (Thurdsay 4/2/2010) for posterity and future reference.
Most of my original post here has been changed.
Posts attributed to thirra are complete, only my empahsis has been added.
These posts are a cherry picked summary of the flavour of thirras attitudes to foreigners

thirra claims that he is not RACIST...
I believe the following will show however that he definitely has some issues.

A search for the name thirra restricted to Australia finds the following interesting comments on various opinion boards.

Islamic law and women
Online Opinion 20 March 2009.
So,the English have been trying to commit cultural suicide for years?
As an Australian of Irish origins (140 years back)I say ,good luck with that you pommy scum.

Australia has some pretence at being a secular democracy.There is no place for sharia law in this country or any other form of religious idiocy.

To moslems,or any other form of immigrant vermin, I have a little advice - shut up, fit in, or clear out - preferably the latter.
Posted by thirra, Friday, 20 March 2009 7:03:49 PM

New Matilda
Should He Stay Or Should He Go?
thirra 05/12/09 10:30AM

As an Australian Vietnam veteran this is all deja vu.It just goes to prove that the only thing homo saps {saps? What is your implication?} learns from history is that homo saps does not learn from history.
As the writer says,there are not exact parallels between Afghanistan and Vietnam but they are/were both wars of counterinsurgency which are very difficult and expensive to fight.They require long term commitment and that is just not going to happen.
The USA and it’s faithfull ally Australia should swallow their pride and get the hell out of the "stans" now so saving a great deal of blood and treasure.There is nothing in this fly blown region which is of any real,long term significance to the West.Let the equally fly blown inhabitants get on with what they do best - killing each other.

New Matilda
Next Time Check Your Facts, Philip
thirra 19/10/09 8:22AM

Marga,well said.
The bottom line is that we have far too many people in this country now - in excess of a 100% overshoot of a sustainable population.
We should introduce a zero immigration policy now. This will send a clear message to the illegal hopeful tryhards.This should be backed up by a comprehensive border protection policy with emphasis on coast and territorial waters patrols and enforcement.
All people attempting to enter Australia illegally should be deported immediately to their country of origin. If this means abrogating the refugee treaties,so be it.
Too hard,too tough for all the bleeding hearts? Well blossoms,just watch this problem escalate.Maybe you need to volunteer to go work in the camps etc.Just forget to come back.You are not needed in Australia.

The Brisbane Times
It's simple: India doesn't want to see its citizens harmed

thirra | Queensland - January 15, 2010, 8:20AM

Indians,or anybody else,must realize that when they come to Australia not only are they subject to the laws of the land they are also subject to the lawless of the land.
If they can't stand the heat don't come into the kitchen.
Australians travelling abroad should take note that the same realism applies to them.If you take the risks then you take the consequences.

New Matilida
Five Trends To Watch In 2010
thirra 19/01/10 8:57AM

I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the US v China.If you look at the fundamentals the US can,and probably will get itself out of the current predicament.There will probably have to be a sorting out of the present political impasse to allow this to happen.This will be difficult given the power of their oligarchy and will likely be violent.There is a potential for positive change in the US because of the democratic culture of free speech and the fact that there is an armed citizenry.
China,on the other hand is simply a disaster waiting to happen.It has a huge and unmanageable population overshoot,massive self inflicted environmental problems and a long standing culture of suppression which has resulted in political collapse many times in history.

The AfPak conflict is a no win situation for the West.We need to write off prior investment,swallow our pride and leave the monkeys to do what they do best - killing each other.

Drumbeat: January 8, 2010
thirra on January 8, 2010 - 3:55pm
Darwinian,Singapore is not China.Rogers has enough intelligence not to live in China but that does not make him intelligent enough to draw some fundamental conclusions about Chinese prospects.As previous commenters have said,China is a mega disaster just waiting to happen.The sooner the better,IMO

Drumbeat: December 27, 2009
thirra on December 27, 2009 - 3:34pm
The Sun-Sentinal article quotes a US doctor as saying "you can't keep them out", refering to immigrants (who are sick).
But, yes you can keep them out.The process is called border control and quarantine - been around for a long time.Well past time for Western nations to apply comprehensive restrictions on entry.Also well past time to drop the bleeding heart syndrome unless you want to commit national suicide.

Desertec Asia - A Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure Proposal
thirra on December 7, 2009 - 2:08pm
Termoil,if Australia can't muster the resources to extract gas for domestic consumption,an unlikely scenario,then it will have to stay in the ground.It sure ain't going anywhere.However,I realize that leaving something for future generations is anathema to the dig it up and sell it off cheap crowd.After all,how is our grossly consumptive society going to pay for the Chinese junk, Japanese cars and so on,etc,etc ad nauseum.
As for your conclusion that Australian natural resources belong to the world - presumably you are Australian? Such a supine attitude,you place no value on your country apparently.With such as you in the population we don't need enemies.
{presumably typed on some Chinese junk}

Dr. Albert Bartlett's "Laws of Sustainability"
thirra on November 6, 2009 - 4:11pm
Thankyou Brian,for a consise and relevant post which is what a lot of the previous posts are not.
My personal take on this is that a massive die-off is inevitable,sooner rather than later as we have such a gross population overshoot.The situation is exacerbated by a general lack of awareness,not only in the population at large but in the so called "leadership".
My only hope is that nations of predominantly European origin will wake up to the threat and cease their crazy immigration policies.In the coming hard times there will be little scope for selfless compassion outside the nation state.

What makes this exchange so amusing is I am Australian - Idiot!

Time for some self reflection thirra?

You 'mistake' my (I think justifiable) ire for 'hysteria'... but accusing people of 'hysteria' is also just another cheap rhetorical ploy.

Your entire argumentative style is now demonstrated.
Assumption on assumption on assumption... morphing into self righteous bigoted assertion.
It doesn't matter that there is some semblance of logic or rational thought. Built on this intellectual quicksand there can be no reasonable conclusion.

thirra, we crossed paths before, and if you had a memory of your interactions you would recall that I am not a perpetual growth advocate.
I have some deep missgivings about some of the technowank proposals and overly rosy projections for the future... however, I would never declare "bring it on" to the death, destruction and displacement of the collapse that you envision.

However, it appears that you are retired, possibly with too much time on your hands, and you have posted elsewhere that TOD is your first port of call of a morning. You seem to spend a lot of time on these boards... AND frequently only to post a few 'attack' posts - your message is blunt and repetitive, and apparently anyone who disagrees is either an idiot (your first assumption about me), or a foreigner (your second assumption).

Also, a word of advice. Learn to spell in English please. Having read far to many of your posts, it is a bigots weapon you are not entitled to use - as you did to me.

Has Vietnam scarred you so badly or did you get sprayed with Agent Orange one too many times?
Why so much dislike of Asians?

I hope you realize that I am merely highlighting your freedom of speech for all to see, and in no way wish to impede that.
Thank you for sharing your humanity with us.
If you want to keep going - try this...