Major insights: Should have known this earlier, but the country's broke and pretending to be otherwise. We were broke back in October, 2008, now we're even more in debt. This will not end well. PO, when it hits, will make these recessionary times appear to be the "good old days". Not happy with revelation that the "land of the free, home of the brave" is actually more a military junta like Guatemala except we have much better military. Otherwise, it seems very similar and now the vast majority of citizens is beginning to act like those in Guatemala, also.

Sometimes it's the little things, like serving one-olive martinis and paper instead of cloth napkins at the local Outback...(lame attempt at dark humor).

Planning: getting serious about gardening, chummier with the neighbors. Keep pounding on denialist family--seems to get better but I wonder how much information they are getting from others? Gonna trade more 401k for physical gold. Preparing for the near-term future like one would for retirement, only a working one, perhaps manually. Resolve to get the boys trained in gun safety and marksmanship. Giving more to charity as one cleans out accumulated bubble-era stuff in preparation for a move elsewhere--a feel-good twofer.

My resolution is to move this land co-op proposal a little further down the road. First proposed three years ago, it's not gotten much traction in central Wisconsin. But I still think the idea of a land-owning, agriculture based worker co-operative has merit, and includes peak oil planning as a core principle throughout. Take a look here:

http://www.biodiversecity.com/co-opProposal.html

BobbyG
Central Wisc. USA

old , retired, fixed income, health issues. I have known about peak oil for over thirty years. the only insight i really gained in the past year was i realized I might actually experience some of the early, and possibly most dramatic first major disruptions of this predicament. I have not discussed the issues with my family for over 5 years, because they refused to even consider the fact that cheap energy might not always be available. An open honest discussion of the issue always seemed to lead to despair and one cannot lead from despair. Effective leaders can only lead from hope. I have personally spent many years developing skills I believed would be essential for the transition before us but have been unable to convince those close to me to participate and likewise learn the basics. Due to health issues i moved from my bolt hole last year back to the city where i could be close to health care facilities. bolt hole is still being operated by a very competent young fella who just might make it through the bottle neck. Living in the city and watching how folks are responding to the earliest signals of the coming storm I have come to realize this is not going to go down well. government is totally ineffective. You are going to be on your own. Get a good sleeping bag. Plant a garden. Learn to eat the diet you can grow. Prepare to defend yourself. Make lots of friends. Avoid free riders especially if they are family.

rather than try to ride it out, i am going to sit in my front row seat and observe one of the most dramatic events in human history, thinking of the wisdom of Epicurus. "Faith in immortality was born of the greed of unsatisfied people who make unwise use of the time that nature has allotted us. But the wise man finds his life span sufficient to complete the full circle of attainable pleasures, and when the time of death comes, he will leave the table, satisfied, freeing a place for other guests. For the wise man one human life is sufficient, and a stupid man will not know what to do with eternity."

1. in the UK we have lots of appliances, furniture, houses, cars etc now that we may never be able to afford to replace as we have done recently. But not many people, I tend to think, have the wherewithal in terms of skills and tools to repair and maintain all their stuff.

2. besides turning meagre cash savings into tools and the skills to use them myself (bike repair my main gig) I want to see how a training operation to 'reskill' people for keeping their household going through running repairs might work. E.g. What would the syllabus look like? How do you teach/learn common sense of deciding what's economical to (try to) fix; diagnosis and fault finding, as well as less tacit skills such as soldering a replacement part into an electrical appliance. What parts of the government might fund this training? How to market it and build a network of instructors? What core skills cascade to other problem solving more readily and economically? Also, beyond inserting spare parts into various things what happens when spares from China dry up - machining new bike parts from scrap metal? That will have to be a 'higher qualification' with an industrial economics module I suppose...

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

Energy is going to be a big underlying driver of what unfolds in the future, but that doesn't necessarilly mean that it is going to be all that obvious or loom all that large in the consciousness of people. I had been sort of thinking of the experience of the 1970s as a model or mental map for the 2010s, but I now realize that things won't work out that way. What happened wrt energy in the '70s was a shock, and so of course it did loom large in people's consciousness. What we are likely to face (unless something huge happens geopolitically) is going to be not so much a suddent shock, but rather a slow, inexorable grind. Things will just continue to go downhill and get worse, month after month and year after year, but people will not be able to pinpoint that solely on energy - or on anything at all, really.

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights?

a) I'm probably actually putting energy conservation on a slightly slower track; I have more to do, but allocating funds toward paying off remaining debtsis a much higher priority at this point.

b) I'm pulling out of our community garden and am just going to focus my efforts on my home garden. I am going to put much more effort into watering my vegies much more intensively than I have in the past - I've come to the conclusion that is what I most need to do to boost yields, and if I boost yields enough at home, then I won't miss the production from the community garden plot.

c) I'll not be voting for candidates from either major party this fall. I'll vote for whatever independent or 3rd party candidates make it on the ballot, or write in someone if there are no alternatives. I have come to the conclusion that the two major parties, in toto are a main part of the problem, and that votes for either of them just perpetuates them in power. I don't care that a non-mainstream candidate can't win; from my point of view the election of people from either party means that I - and the entire country - lose.

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

1. Iraq's vast oil reserves that change the date for peak oil.
2. The world's substantial natural gas endowment that will enable, more or less, BAU for another 20-35 years.

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights?

I am replanning my life. I was misled to believe Peak Oil would be a game changer in the near term. It won't, and I have to replan a lot of things. Not happy about it.

small[few hundred max] rural community is likely better than a more isolated setting.

location is likely a key factor; but that will have to be evaluated all along.

this may take a while. a year or 2 is 'noise' as i have learned from u math folks.

predicting 'where this tree will fall' is impossible to know.

out of the markets/ira later this year.
less sugar/alcohol; before it is less available. learn to cook/eat from our garden... do the extra work.

focus on how to help a disadvantaged group/folks - like mentally handicapped as PO/$ crises hits.. to get beyond self/friends/family.

enjoy the blessings we have- what a unique time in history we live in- comforts, luxuries... such power/energy at the push of a button/lever.

1. On the spiritual front, after many decades of being an agnostic/atheist who believes in the sacred, started to reconsider slightly based on process theology and ecology. The only part of the universe that can even remotely be imagined as caring for us is the thin crust of habitable space on this planet. So that's the closest thing to being anything like what a religion calls a god, as far as I can see (though issues of consciousness, personhood...are still up in the air). So I'm considering offering to the next theist I converse about the matter to admit a kind of deity of this sort if they are willing to admit that they are daily in the act of killing her (as are we all).

I also realized that food is more important than energy. This may seem obvious, but I had been rather open minded about schemes to make energy out of various kinds of biomass--there is a county burner that does this from trash of various sorts, and neighborhood plans to make digesters that will take compostables.

But both of these compete with plans to maximize use of most of the same material for compost for neighborhood gardens. When it comes down to it, the gardens are more important. You can survive even MN winters with a good sleeping bag, tent... but you can't survive anywhere very long without food.

2. Move closer to one planet (to about 1.2 from about 1.5 now) on the footprint analysis at www.myfootprint.edu, mostly by getting closer to being a vegan and continuing to work on making the house green, and continuing to minimize car use to under 20 miles a week on average.

Pay off the house, even if it means taking everything out of the money market part of my retirement account and taking the penalties (better to take it out with penalty than see it evaporate completely as things continue to devolve). Get myself and my wife out out of other debts.

"work hard, avoid stupidity"

that's been the short version of my regular new year's resolution for some time. Usually I do fine on the first part, not always so good on the second. In detail, I need to let go of some "assets" this year. I have three junk cars which I could fix but I have no intention of ever driving again...the scrapyard is a better place. I have a commercial property which is about the same; I could renovate it, but I have no realistic goals there. Need to move on from that stuff, though its not been easy to let go. I have a mountain of accumulate odds and ends, books, collectibles, stuff, just taking up space. I feel like it would be easier to effectively plan and move forward if the current load were lighter.

Maybe getting some property with the capacity of being ag or orchard in the future...

What did I learn?

So-called "collapse" is decline (as in Gibbons: Decline and Fall...). It takes MUCH longer than anybody would expect. (The decline of Rome took 150 years, and the fall took another 200 for the Western part of the empire, and 1200 years for the eastern part.) It never plays out as expected. For example, Peak Oil may play out as a prolonged economic crisis and never be acknowledged as what it is, a resource crisis.

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

The deepest insight I gained this year is the understanding that I am not my personality, my experiences, my knowledge, my possessions or my physical circumstances. At the deepest level, the enduring, substantial I is a node in an infinite web of connections between all elements of reality, whether physical or purely noetic. My most important purpose is to strengthen the interconnections I'm already a part of, and to create new ones with every action and thought.

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights?

I will work to become a better friend, a better lover, a better listener, a better student and a more engaged participant in the events of my life. I plan to get to know myself better through continuing inner work, to disidentify from my personality and re-connect with my true nature as much as I am able. I will try to be impeccable in all things, to have compassion for my own humanity and the humanity of the others in this web, and to do everything I can to help those who need it.

Oh, was this supposed to have something to do with Peak Oil? In that cased I resolve to walk more, eat less and turn off the lights when I leave the room.

I continue to cycle back to the basics:

1. People cannot handle truth very well, and mostly do not want to be told the truth. Comfortable lies -- "carrion comfort" are acceptable for social, religious, educational and political interaction.

2. Most of us will do anything in order to believe that we can be comfortable, and that "we" are entitled to comfort and security even at the expense of others. This gives rise to demagoguery and fascism, which use ancient prejudices, fear, shame, and resentments to control people.

We are willing to believe absurdities which allow us to commit atrocities defined as noble actions.

3. We are all absolutely vulnerable. There is no preparation that can be made to change this. There are too many huge consequences coming together to manage. Our species is warlike and ungovernable, and we have dealt our own habitat a mortal wound -- as if we have declared war on all species and the earth itself.

4. I embrace absolute vulnerability even while trying to live a loving life with those around me and the planet. I do this because love seems to matter to me the most. I do not plan my life in order to beat the odds.

5. Hope is not an empty noun. "Hope is a verb with its sleeves rolled up." I do work to help my children to be aware of likely future scenarios, but make it clear that obsession with "survival" is not a solution, and can destroy the gift of life and love here and now. If we garden, it is for love of relating well to the earth -- not to save our asses.

6. As per old Kurt Vonnegut: "The purpose of life is this: we are here to help each other through whatever this is."

New insights:

1. Having voted for Obama with high hopes and thinking he was the lessor of two evils, it is becoming clear he is not much lesser. I use to not vote at all, but all that does is put people like G. W. Bush in power.

2. I use to believe all the tankers sitting idle and storing crude oil were due to speculation because that is story I read so often. I now believe the tankers are sitting idle because there is not enough oil in the export market to fill them. A lot of exported oil flows by pipeline so tankers are only needed where pipelines don't reach. With declining oil exports tankers are the first infrastructure to be hit. At some point in the future oil tankers will be obsolete.

3. Energy analysts do not understand that they are dealing with an abstraction. They reify that abstraction in their analysis. They think all energy is the same because the unit of measure is the same. They see a BTU of one form of energy as the same as a BTU of another form when it obviously is not.

As a result they compare things that are different, totally disregarding important characteristics such as renewability, utility and price. This leads to false conclusions and bad energy analysis.

No matter how many times this is pointed out, most do not care and keep right on with their faulty analysis.

4. Being a farmer, weather in 2009 was unreliable and a shock. Harvest weather was the worst I've ever seen in 34 years of farming.
I use to have ample time to get crops planted and harvested. But now it seems that spring planting is delayed by too much rain quite often and in 2009 the harvest was also delayed by too much rain.

Planning differently for 2010:

Since soybeans do not like too much rain and my yield in 2009 was poor due to that and aphids, I will not grow them in 2010. I will grow only corn and let Brazil grow soybeans.

I expect gas prices to rise in 2010 which will drag up ethanol. Corn prices should follow.

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

That in the UK we have a climate change minister who gets on with the job (at least until the election). Not sure I agree with the nuclear option but plans for 32GW wind farms are mindblowing. Some other signs that govt may be thinking of getting its act together, such as Defra's U-turn on food security, but that dept remains painfully slow and blockheaded.

That tying energy descent arguments to Peak Oil (currently unproven)may be wrong tactically, climate change is more strongly evidenced and many mitigation policies will be similar

There isnt enough land for fuelwood, biofuels, food production, wildlife and people

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights?

Take a more active role in community efforts towards transition

Install solar pv

Garden more successfully having converted most of garden to fruit and veg growing space

Taste the wine made 2 years back and make more if its ok

To deliver a State Of The Union address to the American people and the world reminiscent of President Carter's April 18, 1977 speech. The crisis we face must indeed be met with nothing short of the moral equivalent of war, lest we find ourselves inevitably mired in endless literal global conflict. There can be no civilization without energy, and nations that have their resource base cut off do not simply wither and perish, they use their might. We must shift first and foremost to the cheapest, quickest, most plentiful "source" of energy-- conservation-- and change the modern banking system to allow efficiency gains to circumvent Jevons and actually lower energy consumption. The era of economic growth fueled by cheap energy is over. Only morons and economists think that exponential growth on a finite world can last forever, and indeed during the first seven decades of the 20th century the United States consumed more oil than has ever been used in the entirety of human history, each decade, for 7 percent per year growth means consumption doubles every ten years. Let it be said that the decision to "switch to plentiful coal while protecting the environment" was an oxymoron, and the decision to go with coal rather than nuclear has got to be the worst environmental mistake in human history. Our largest resource is not coal, as our depleted uranium alone-- already mined-- contains more energy than all coal in the world still unmined. If we fail to act soon, the social, political, and economic consequences will be unprecedented. Stay tuned.

* Add between-wall insulation (probably inject PUR)
* Add additional underneath floor insulation (probably EPS plates)
* Replace double glacing on the ground floor with high efficiency (with metal IR reflecting layer)
* Use the bicycle even more then I already do
* Practice some square foot gardening
* Try to determine how to use rainwater better
* Preach the need for reducing energy needs and the move to renewable energy. Help neighbours, friends, family determine their possible energy reduction opportunities.
* Counter the denialism on AGW with scientific arguments
* Probably forgot some more :-)

This one is so easy:

Stay on a path that I began over two years ago:

1. Reduce debt, reduce debt, reduce debt.

2. Absolutely set out a plan to get completely away from being a customer of the big banks. Small local banks are better, credit unions even better. Stay to the truth I now know: The big national and multinational banks (and even many of the regionals, but they are harder to weed out the good and bad) are completely unreliable and untrustworthy as co-partners and cannot be relied upon to act rationally. If they were individuals instead of institutions they would be diagnosed as bi-polar and schizophrenic. Investigate the financial opportunities in helping promote local community banks and credit unions as a possible business venture (I have some partners interested in the potential of this...)

3. Renew my contact with the arts. Despite what many folks seem to believe, our culture is MUCH more than oil. Renew my long love affair with our culture at it's best, the music, the art, the literature and the architecture.

4. Listen to Brandi Carlile and go to one of her concerts as possible. Resolve to listen to even more of the our young artists, see the work of more young sculptures and painters, read the poems of more young poets. The youth of our generation are easily scoffed at and scolded, but there is so much great young talent and so many of them have beautiful souls, I want to hear what they are trying to say.

5. Hedge better. Do not get locked into conventional wisdom, doomer or otherwise. Keep my eyes open for the real opportunities that are coming at us so fast it is hard to keep track of them.

6. Accept the facts that I already am relatively sure of: If "peak' catastrophe is coming, I will not know when, and I cannot change it anyway. In fact, the U.S., where I live is rapidly becoming a marginal player in the whole energy situation, so I cannot try to carry the weight of the world on my shoulders. If "peak" catastrophe is not coming, I cannot know exactly what is coming anyway. There are posible nightmares that make "peak oil" look like a walk in the park...terrible epidemics, release of chemical or germ warfare, nuclear conflict in the world....I cannot do anything about those either, so resolve to "take care of my business", strenthen my finances, enjoy my culture, and not cause myself dispair about things I cannot possibly change.

7. Some more, these more personal and one of them won't be popular here: Renew my old love affair with classy artistic and interesting cars. The great postway cars of the boomers, BMW 2002, Alfa Romeo, vintage rarities such as Arnolt MG, possibly some classic sports racing cars like Lotus and Lola..., and the great postwar Packards, I still love cars, and the small number of beautiful artistic collectables will make no difference regarding peak oil anyway, and this one very personal, renew my contact with women. I have been through some breakups and am living essentially a life alone. This is no fun. Oh, and better food, better gourmet coffee and begin working on my sailboat to sail the twin lakes of Lake Barkley and Kentucky Lake, gifts from God and the TVA...:-)

RC

I am retired and have been preparing as best I can for some time. I live in a rural area, garden, store food, etc.

The main insight I gained this past year is that we in the US have lost our representative government and that participation is futile.

Accordingly I will no longer vote except for any third party candidate who manages to get on the ballot as a protest against the democrat-republicans.

We have no future. As soon as the last of the loot is exported to safe havens, we will be on our own. I am glad to have lived most of my life while times were pretty good and hope not to live too far into what is coming. I feel for the young.

My chief concern for the future is fresh water access. I survived Katrina (40 miles inland MS) and was without power for 9 days (I was one of the lucky ones). Water had been stored in gallon jugs, and National Guard distributed cases of bottled water. Yet I know of no local wells where one could let down a bucket on a rope. All rural water supplies are mostly from private small diameter wells with electric pumps. I can't imagine what city people will do for either water supply or wastewater disposal if the power grid locks up. I need to learn how to dig a well and equip it with some type of pumping device. Windmills may be one answer. When I read about all these home gardens, that's a great idea but water is the critical stuff. Tu

To protect myself better.

No more talking peak oil to people. Too many glazed looks and cold shoulders, even though I stick to the most academic sources--Albert Bartlett, William Catton, Kenneth Deffeyes.

"The more the words,
the less the meaning,
and how does that profit anyone?"

I have watched the climate change and healthcare debates in the US with horror, as I believe that they are the model that any legislative attempt to deal with Peak Oil will follow. It seems clear now that however strong the evidence that we need to do things differently, the combination of big money with an interest in maintaining BAU, along with the religious fundamenalist/highly individualist American mindset will block action. How else can you explain INCREASING numbers of Americans denying AGW in the face of mounting scientific and empiric evidence? Unlike some here, I do believe the Obama administration is gently testing the water as to some mitigation leadership: the White House garden, increased support for small, local farmers and markets, increased cafe standards, "green jobs," cash-for-clunkers, cash-for-caulkers, talking about climate change, support for high speed rail, etc. I'm not saying all of these things are right or enough or being done well, but it is truly a change of course for the US government. That said, it will be a long, hard slog, and the resistance is great.

Much of what needs to be done will have to start at a local and individual level, but that's not easy, either. I live in a town that is putting a lot of money and effort into bike/ped improvements, and you should hear the anger and vitriol spewing forth on that! We are working to change our city ordinance to allow small flocks of chickens. That looks like it may happen, but again, it is stirring up a lot of anger and fear.

As to what I have done:

Food: I keep expanding my organic garden, planting fruit and nut trees as well. We built a root cellar, and I learned how to can and pickle this summer. I am taking a beekeeping course in a few weeks, and hope to add chickens this summer. I have been secretly glad not to have them yet as the weather has been so severe...would I, a novice, know how to protect them from these conditions? EVERYTHING here has a steep learning curve--many crops were poor, I am keeping careful records to try to learn how to plant the right amount of things, the root cellar cooled down too late with our warm November, and now I have to manange it to keep off frost...No wonder people are enamored of refrigerators!

Energy: We plan to install solar hot water this summer. I am in a quandry regarding heat--I have looked into a ground source heat pump, and don't know whether that's a better option than a high-efficiency nat gas furnace, especially given that we dislike AC except on the most extreme days. We have debated about moving out of our over-large (2500 sq foot) house, but we did choose it for easy access by foot and bike to the places we need to go, and I have invested many hours of labor into the garden. That's a very tough decision for us. I am leaning toward continued attempts at energy efficiency, and a plan to convert to co-housing or extended-family living as times dictate.

Transportation: We were seriously considering going from 1 car to none in a few years when the kids leave home, but this week, with the severe weather, one family member with a leg injury and another with an illness requiring a doctor visit, has made that seem like a bridge too far. I think it shows the great need for car-sharing schemes and adequate public transportation even in small cities like ours.

Community: Really, I have come to believe that this will be the key to how the transition goes. I'm frankly terrified of terrible, despotic government, hate groups that emerge in the face of scarcity, crime by desperate people. We have certainly seen over the last year or so that Americans by and large are ready to let the poor fend for themselves rather than improve our societal safety net. I generally do not talk about PO, except to others who are already along the transition path, but I do seek to build a network of friends making similar lifestyle changes. We are in a small city surrounded, still, by agricultural land, and I think this is the place to be, but of course we don't know. We are donating money to local groups that support non-motorized transportation, urban gardening, etc.

Religion: There has been discussion of the positive and negative implications of religion in what we face. I absoluely believe that fundamenalist religion of any stripe is seriously dangerous. But for me, being part of a liberal religious congregation, without a creed or belief in a magical rescue for anyone with the right theology, has been helpful. It has been as close to a ready-made community of people willing to accept ideas of resource limitations and need for lifestyle change as anything I have found.

Family: One of the most difficult conundrums for me has been how to raise my kids. I don't know the time frame or the exact way this is going to play out. How much do I try to keep the kids out of mainstream culture? What skills will they need? If BAU lasts another 10-20 years, will we have denied them important social opportunities because of our fears/beliefs? Here's where we stand, and I guarantee we're not right on everything: We talk about peak oil and what lies ahead, but try not to be too negative and fearful. It's the world they have to live in, no matter what. They are in many of the typical youth activities of the day, but we choose teams/lessons/teachers that allow the kids to use bikes and public transportation rather than parent-taxi. Some of these things (daughter's "competition dance"), we are very uncomfortable with; others we think will be of benefit however things turn out (learning to play a musical instrument, Boy Scout skills--son just earned clear bead for camping out in -0 degree F weather! I make them do chores that I hope will give them a little knowledge of gardening, cooking from whole ingredients, hand tool use, etc. I try to encourage them to eat right and stay fit, and we hope that we are creating a family environment of love, protection, connection with nature, and value for friends and community. But its tough, we argue with them a lot about TV(cancelled the cable this year!), ipods, video games, fashion purchases, fitting in, having to ride their bikes, making them "weirdos!"

Gratitude: I would like to reiterate the comments made by others that PO awareness has made me more grateful for what energy does for us in terms of shelter, food security and safety, medical care, social connections and so on. How I wish we had had the foresight as a people to consider what energy uses were beneficial, and reject those which have led us to our present crisis--a bit of Amish thinking for all, I guess. But here we are. Thanks, too to the great efforts of those here to keep us informed, and to provide a forum for discussion of what we can and should do.

I'm investigating alternative emergency power sources, in case the grid goes out. Last year we had a 5-day outage due to heavy storms taking out a transformer box.

5 days in August is not difficult to cope with, since you can stock a refrigerator with ice (if someone else has power) and get a charge on the laptop and cell phone anywhere there is a working outlet (I was lucky to have customers that would let me charge up at their offices).

Days are long, and solar lanterns and battery chargers work just fine.

But I'm thinking about what to do if this becomes more frequent. I don't have the roof space for PV (since I already have solar hot water).

I did come across this website last night, and wondered what the solar gurus here think :-

http://www.solarstik.com/

Cost-wise, in the neighborhood of $4k - $15K depending on model.

Having spent the last several years in preparation (paying off the mortgage, installing solar intertie system, solar hot water, wood cook stove etc.). I will continue to prep. Each year my projects are just a bit more substantial as I gradually convince my spouse that such backup is a good idea. This year, fencing in part of the property for poultry and goats and building an outdoor bread oven- next year a small barn.

I have resolved to sit back and, if not enjoy, at least be at peace with the long descent. Although I will continue to teach about PO, AGW, and the hazards of the never-ending growth, I will try not to worry about whether I am right but just view my preparation as a good hedge against future calamity. I resolve to endure the teasing I get from friends and family with a calm and knowing smile (at least most of the time).

We had a good drill yesterday with a 6.5 earthquake. There was considerable shaking and, after I realized it was not going to be short, I went outside to see my pond sloshing and the trees in the orchard acting like leafless Ents.

As soon as our heart rates were down to normal, we flipped the master breaker off (power had gone out with the S wave) checked out the chimney and foundation, the water tank and called our of town kids to let them know we were alright and ask them to check usgs.gov for us to get quake details. It’s a good idea to have a phone that’s not cordless to work when the power goes out and it’s usually easier to call out than call in.

Neighbors on our spur road checked in with each other and a few generators powered up. Dinner was no problem with the woodstove and we spent the evening playing chess and reading by oil lamps. The power came back on after about 4 hours.

We live in a small rural valley on Vancouver Island. A few weeks ago I was at a potluck and approached a local farmer about peak oil. I knew he spent most of his spare time researching/reading and figured he would know about it. Finally, a kindred spirit to share ideas with!! My wife and I were feeling pretty alone up here. Anyway, we had dinner together just last night and all agree that it will probably be a gradual transition with various bumps and cycles....depending on events, etc. Of course there may well be cataclysmic events! Further to that, we shared a consensus that a single family cannot make it on their own, that it will require a new community mindset of, well....old style community.

We will continue to reach out more to others and be good and helpful neighbours.

After a life spent working as a pilot and carpenter, some years ago I became a shop teacher and worked at the other jobs on the side. I now teach elementary school in our valley. I have tried to reach out to other teachers in our District, (those who live in town 75 km away), and mentioned that I am planning for no, or very little, pension. I have been met with stares of disbelief. (You guys know the reaction). I have always been active in my teachers union and have offered to put on a presentation on peak oil and our indebted economy. No one wants to hear about it. Most of my colleagues cannot even entertain the thought that life may unfold differently than what they have planned. Anyway.

We will continue to speak the truth, to share our beliefs, and count on our friends to listen once in awhile.

We live on a river with very big salmon runs. We can, freeze, and smoke fish every fall, have an expanded garden, and are developing a 16 acre parcel of land with gardens, meat birds, meat sheep, layers, etc. It will go to my two children and a nephew. My son just bought a place on the river 1/2 km away. (When we sold out and moved here 5 years ago people thought we were nuts. They still do.)

We will continue to do our best for our family.

When the jets hit on 9/11 we still lived in town. I remember the empty streets as folks were glued to their tv and radios. At school the tvs were on all day. One of my students laughed about it. I got mad and told him our lives would be forever changed. And so it came to pass. As the financial events have unfolded these past few years most of us have come to understand how nuts it all was, and how fast a complex society can break down. Katrina should have scared us all into this understanding, if nothing else. I am not a doomer, and will remain working out of optimism, but one day we will turn on the news and realize that 'the event' just happened. That, "here we go, dear", is starting to unfold.

One big event may wake all of us up one day. It would be nice to be as ready as possible. And if it doesn't happen, well, we are pretty happy with how we live.

It may take just one event to knock the gyro into wobble.

Thank you all for sharing your ideas.

Cheers.......Paul

I realized that ITS ALL ABOUT MONEY.

Just read that dairy farmers are loosing their farms to the banks at record rates, on average one farmer a week kills himself. This is in the UK not third world. We are so Fooked up that we as a people think its OK for people to die because they can't pay money to a bank that never had it in the first place.

I have resolved to make as much money as possible.

No real resolutions. Just keep doing what I've been doing; hope for the best but prepare for the worst. However, my view of "the worst" has deepened considerably. I simply see no rational actions from any quarter (public, private or governmental) regardless of the problem.

Like others, I'm pretty much staying under the radar. The exception is my boondocks "neighborhood" where I've spent a lot of time attempting to increase our already strong relationships (most of us have know each other for 30 years). Fortunately, 3 out of 5 families are serious doomers, 1 is concerned and only a weekend family believes in BAU.

Todd

The future is grist for my mill.
It has been for all of my evolution.
Bring it on.

Airdale's resolution is to never, never again become infected with H1N1.

For two weeks I have been a basket case. I am in bed right now. Got up and fixed me and wife and smallish breakfast and was so tired I once more collapsed.

When I cough sometimes I almost blackout. The hacking is sometime continous for hours. The fever spikes at 102 then recedes only to come back a few hours later.

Once last week I awoke with all my underwear totally soaked it sweat and shivering. I went back to sleep later and it happened two more times the same night.

Folks, this flu is a killer for some. My age is very much at risk and with my missing kidney I may face severe complications once the flu has run its course. That is IF I survive it at all.

Living on a farm with little contact with others could be a Godsend but eventually perhaps no so for if never exposed then never immune.

It has been many years since I was this sick. I now have a far different outlook on my future. I am currently in the suburbs of south St. Louis with my wife and son.

There being NO WAY that I could chop wood and feed a fire. No way to feed myself. Going it alone? Seems impossible now for me.

I may with a possible reduced life decide to sell my holdings and move permamently. The future is very cloudied.

Best to all and watch out for those who carry the flu. I keep thinking it has run its course but back comes the malise and the fever.

Airdale

What have I realized? People are not people. Or rather, people are not who they appear to be. Or rather, the concept of "people" as some kind of cohesive group, they don't exist. Whatever cohesion exists is formed from the bottom up, not from the top-down as we tend to view it. Nearly all of our cohesion comes from not the cheap energy that powers our lives, but from the ideas formed by billions of individuals born into this cheap energy environment.

While it may sound like an accusation, or a complaining litany, or bleating at the night, the issue is that most people will never "get" anything. Most individuals do not actively think, reason, inquire, pay attention, or care. Only a tiny fraction of people can even be approached with explanations, logic, reason, facts, data, science. And how could it be any other way? All humans are evolved animals, with no knowledge of even how to use our own brains and bodies when we're born.

The evidence is that we are not as alike or similar as we want to believe. How many times do we have to try to argue a point with someone who isn't receptive? When to we learn that at least half the problem is not what other people do, but what we do that causes them to respond in ways we don't want?

So, I resolve to learn how to deal with all these different individuals in a more effective manner. Also, to have more sex.

Insights for 2009

Since mass culture is so intractable individual effort is more important than ever.

Plans

Build the PV setup, do a few more bicycle tours, keep the communication lines open with the young, the neighbors, and the family.

Cheaper thin film PV seems to be here ,having already bought it, at some point perhaps in another thread the solar gurus would like to weigh in. Spring_Tides might be interested too.

Note; As to why I'm feeling so pessimistic about macro BAU. The basic premise has been borrowing from the future to exploit the past (resources) to maintain the unsustainable present (3D TV culture, high HP individual car culture, freeway and airport improvement). In 2009 I did not see very much in Stim, TARP, the mid-east policy, or tax policy which materially indicated an understanding of this fundamental delusion. I.e. the US adding 12 trillion in debt mostly to reflate the unreflatable. I did see a little more on the individual fronts seeking to establish a path through the bottleneck.

Insights: Wow, are scientists crooked! Climategate.
No peak oil for a while, but the price of oil might cause recovery remission.

Resolutions:
Be more proactive for nuclear power, like they are in Asia.
Try and figure out if it's possible to make some money on gold, as the price seems to continually be going up.
Get a good laugh at people's preposterous assumptions, and de-stress!
Comment more.... and that one's working. :)

I have been PO aware since 2005 and became so interested in the subject more generally that I did a Masters degree (Sustainability Sciences). This was an eclectic mix of subjects including Energy and Society, Climate Science, Resource Economics, Environmental Systems, Environmental Law, Ecology and a few more besides. I thoroughly enjoyed it and qualified with a sense of optimism. Since then I have become somewhat depressed about our future, or more specifically my kids future and my retirement (I am 54). Endless discussion about PO and Climate are interesting, but these issues, important as they are, are not the "problem". The problem is that the human species is in overshoot, by probably several billion people; and dwindling energy availability (and a degraded environment) will mean a decline, one way or another. Our psychology is made up primarily of selfishness and agression (we are "civilised" only so long as it is advantageous) and the portents for the decline are not good.

This being the case I have personally resolved not to talk to anyone about PO, climate, population etc unless I can detect that a discussion may ensue on the basis that we start at approximately the same level of knowledge and understanding. In other words if I can learn something, so much the better. But I will not be evangelising any more. I find people, generally, are woefully ignorant in this general area and arguing with someone not educated in climate science about climate change is pointless. They simply do not have the systems knowledge or understanding of the complexities that make such a discussion worth while. Since finishing my degree I have never met anyone also trained in climate science. So it is with PO. To understand PO one needs a vast body of background knowledge. Most people simply do not have it. I used to say to people that if they wished we could meet later for a couple of hours and I would give them a short presentation and a reading list. No one has ever taken me up on it. While oil was over $100 I tried to set up a short sustainability discussion that would run locally for 12 weeks. With the price set only to cover cost (for 12 people) I advertised for quite a few weeks in our local paper. I had 2 takers and had to cancel. People are not interested and do not care. It is all outside the terms of reference that make up their daily lives.

Learned:

The banks and capitalists own everything. Slaves are encouraged to work through imbibing the illusion of ownership. Ownership will revert to the capitalists, especially the credit masters, when the game is over and the elixir wears off.

Most people are not interested in learning beyond technical preparation for their slavery – they seek entertainment.

In the future, most people will live in an ugly place and travel through an ugly place to work in an ugly place.

Our President is a lawyer that represents corporate and banking interests.

The future is only uncertain for those who believe.

Resolutions:

Drink more peppermint Schnapps in my hot chocolate. Eat more real food. Get at least two years of living out of one. Slip through the bottleneck before the rush.

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

One of the biggest recent insights is the need to get back to basics. In the activism I do, that means returning the basics of reiterating fundamental messages that I take for granted but others needed to be reminded of. One of those, alas, is that global climate change is really happening (AGW, even!). In my area it is very difficult to get decision-makers to accept any limits--they just want to keep on with BAU, exploiting natural resources as long as possible. Peak oil, peak coal, AGW, and any message of limits takes constant reinforcement to get through in a meaningful way.

Another theme--one reading TOD has really reinforced for me--is the importance of communities.

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights?

At a personal level, I'm making a major commitment in 2010 to simpler living. There's some things I did well with last year and there's some even bigger steps I've already successfully started on for this year. Right now I'm focused on what I consume on a daily basis--changing habits in what I eat and drink. Keeping up better habits for entire year will make a big difference in my household in terms of $$, resources, and footprint.

I'm working on getting involved in different communities more actively, both F2F and virtual. Also, I'm looking for more ways to encourage supportive structures for people who are working towards a shared vision that will clean up our atmosphere. As one example, I've stared a Facebook group for people who are committed to reducing 10% of their emissions in 2010: http://bit.ly/1010fbgrp

For this coming year:
1. Expand my worm bed
2. Make better use of the worm castings and "tea"
3. Renew and diversify my herb bed
4. Attempt to get spouse interested in charcoal making
5. Build the soil
6. Ride my horse more often

1. What insights have you gained in the past year, that have caused you to see things differently about the future?

Worry and anxiety about ANYTHING is non-productive and leads to naught. 2009 was for me a full year without Effexor and other chemicals trying to calm the paranoid Peak Oiler in me. Yes we are in the thick of it now. Yes Obama was not the savior or the real change we hoped for. Yes we are still at war and yes CO2 is running amok, China is on the rise and putting more autos on the road than the USA every day. I say yes to all that, because it just IS. My whining about it only makes ME miserable.
So... I start small. Eat and live as ethically as I can and share these values with family and friends. Life really is good, simply because I am alive.

2. What things are you planning to do differently in 2010 because of these insights.

I've encouraged my son to pursue his dreams by applying to national top schools in Musical Theater (which means I DIDN'T force him into practical things like Agriculture and Engineering). I've chosen to spend more time valuing and enjoying family. I've gone from engineering manager to homemaker, and we eat and live a hell of a lot better on less income. Dad's happy, healthy and present. I'm meditating almost daily and we eat much more vegetation and the majority of our animal protein I have personally harvested. I'm exercising more simply by walking or biking and I absolutely LOVE riding motorcycles again whenever possible and parking my truck.

Most of the attention over climate change is given to the increase of CO2. However, the toxic effects of nitrous oxides and sulpher dioxides, emissions which morph into ozone and acid rain, are a much more immediate problem. These poisons cause damage that is lethal to vegetation. Decades of cumulative exposure are killing trees all over the world, at an increasingly rapid rate, and of course this ultimately means the extinction of all species - animals, and plants in the understory - that are dependent upon trees for food and shelter.

This is an existential problem for humans too of course, because those same atmospheric contaminants are already causing widespread crop failure. And of course, there are other terrible consequences that will rapidly accrue - wildfires, trees falling causing power outages and property damage, and vast areas turning from CO2 sinks in CO2 emitters, thus contributing yet another tipping point to overall global heating.

Why virtually everyone, from private citizen to scientist to government agency, is ignoring this accelerating trend when the evidence is readily observed in a cursory inventory is a mystery to me.

From what I have seen in the past year I expect that it will soon become impossible for even the most dedicated ignorer to avoid the fact that we have so fouled our own nest that we will have skyrocketing food prices and shortages. At that point, we shall discover whether people decide to cooperate and help the most vulnerable, or selfishly and greedily consume everything around them, including their pets, and then each other.

This is almost impossible to prepare for, especially when you factor in climate change, with the likelihood of rampant disease and insect infestations, wild extreme weather events, and peak oil. But I'm trying.

Pictures and links to scientific research shared here: www.witsendnj.blogspot.com

I just opened a present to myself from Nutsonline, I got the money for it last year But ordered it this year. In the box were 5 items, only one of which I cold make myself if the world were to come crashing down this year. Gail asks what insights did I gain this year that have made me see things differently about the future. One of them is not taking so long to gather up some of the things I have been putting off getting.

I had the pleasure of having both my parent's in the Hospital at the same time last month. Okay that is a bit sarcastic, but I was not alone in dealing with it, we were near family that could help us with all the issues. Now they are both fixed and on the road to recovery. But I learned as if I needed to be reminded, that you can't see the future to well from where you are standing. You can get a general hint of where things might go, but you don't see all the underlying bumps and pits in the flat surface in front of you.

I live on a fixed income, roughly 8,600 dollars per year, most of that goes to help around the house, and even to help a friend or two. But I do have spending money, which I'll use to pay down some debts. There are several species of plants that I want to try to grow that I'll have to wager some money on, because they don't normally grow here abouts.

I also want to improve my pool game, so I am going to play more pool this year, when my back allows it. I want to help a friend with his "End of the World" prep, so I'll be spending time and money doing that.

I don't in general make resolutions.

The only things new that I learned in 2009, was that no matter how you think it is going, it can get much worse than what you see on the surface. But really is that anything new? NO. It is a reminder I won't soon forget though.

I will try to enjoy what I have today, more than I did last year. I will try to learn a few more skills, or go back to practicing skills I already know but have not used in a while. I'll try to save more moeny for treats from places like Nutsonline, while they last.

Prepare for the wosrt and Pray for the Best.

Charles.