Not a problem. We'll just import it like France and Germany do. We have at least 2 LNG terminals now as well as the pipelines to Europe. However, not as secure as having your own supply.

Currently Long range storage would last around 62 days, medium range storage has around 10 days and short range has around 2 days at max flow rates. The max flow rates are limited by the size of the pipes.

http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/93FA9431-6AED-4203-80A5-8211E33...

North Atlantic Oscillation - interesting. Coincidentally I was chatting to a chap at a Christmas party, he said he worked in climate research in the field of oceanography, or something like that, too much wine can do strange things to the brain. Anyway, he said that they have actually measured a "slowing down" of the Gulf Stream caused by the "marine motor" of cold water sinking off the coast of eastern Greenland, "slowing down." Of course this is highly speculative science at present, because the measurements and data incomplete; but according to him, his "hunch" was that the Gulf Stream was becoming more "unstable" which could, over time, have profound implications for northern Europe and beyond. We could, for example end up with both hotter summers and colder winters.

I don't believe it is quite accurate to say "the country is finished..."

If we were to talk about anything except human populations, we would be speaking of the oscillations of various populations as the environment changed, and perhaps changed predator-prey relationships.

The ancient Highlanders managed to survive for thousands of years up in Northern Scotland without oil -- and even after they cut all their trees down.

What is certain is that most of us will not much longer be able to drive to the supermarket for beer and lounge in front of the big screen to watch a football game.

It'll be interesting to see what the Lincs MPs do when they're facing the prospect of replacing the UKs dwindling North Sea gas by techniques like underground coal gasification (UGC). The carboniferous Yorkshire coal fields slide under Lincolnshire on their way to the North Sea.

The British Geological Survey have identified large areas of Lincs as prime targets for UGC (and maybe coal seam methane). The carboniferous coals are too deep for conventional mining under Lincs, and they're largely mined out under Yorkshire/Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire.

There are also very thick seams of coal under then North Sea from the same strata - I wonder if they're targets for UCG using our offshore drilling expertise?

This is possibly shill nonsense, according to his profile this is his only comment in 33 weeks 5 days.

Perhaps the government is working him ragged and so he has just never had the time until now, LOL.

What a load of propaganda BS. Anyone who claims that we (the UK) can relax because the free market is our saviour has not slightest idea what he is talking about. I will rebutt this crazy nonsense in detail tomorrow when at my computer, not my iPhone.

This is absurd, dangerous nonsense which is sadly the prevailing 'wisdom' of the UK's energy policy for nearly two decades now and it is essential that this is shown for what it is.

I'm no expert, but I'd have to agree, simply by looking at figure 1. If the top (blue) line is representative of what the designers expected, the system is operating within its capabilities.

The price of shale gas is low, but it is not at all clear that companies can produce shale gas profitably at the low prices we have been seeing recently. This is a link to a post I did on the subject.

In general, there is a problem with people's incomes not being able to handle high prices. This is an article I wrote related to how high oil prices affect consumers. The same argument can be made for high natural gas prices.

Hooray a reassuringly real person.

Jon -- Have just picked up pieces of your puzzle over the years so please correct. The UK still has significant coal resources but agreed with the EU to move away from this source for ecological reasons. If that's true do you anticipate the UK holding to that agreement or being forced back to coal? If not coal is expanded nuclear the next best option in your opinion?

We don't have storage at French or German levels because we have the North Sea. Why bring it out of one hole in the ground only to put it in another?
It's not only wrong price wise, it's entirely pointless environmentallly.

We do indeed have only six days of short term LNG storage available. That means if all 8 gas terminals are simultaneously hit by a meteorite, we are well and truly screwed. If the meteorite only hit seven terminals, we would then be forced down to six weeks storage from the Rough field.

Apart from that, we'll do just fine. As the last few days have proven.

The rules for interruptible gas sites mean that at least ten days storage capacity be held on site. There are over 2000 interruptible sites, 97 of which were interrupted on Thursday. Which means 95 per cent weren't, but that wouldn't be an interesting headline.

The 2000 sites include at least 150 NHS hospitals, many military installations, numerous council estates, and sites as diverse as department stores, banking back offices, prisons and police stations. Interruptible gas supply is used throughout the world as a peak shaving device. It's all about network capacity, actual physical gas supply has zero to do with it.

For example: A third of capacity serves the domestic market. But evidently, domestic supplies don't use much in July. To use that capacity, major end users with a steady load facto such as CCGTs but also chemical, paper, cement plants, ceramic factories, brick works, milk processing plants, breweries etc etc who use a lot of gas year round buy gas on interruptible contracts. There are some end users who have lower need for gas in the winter than summer (brickworks and cement for example). Other end users pay their money, via reduced gas bills, and takes their chances. When they are interrupted they either switch to oil, or change their processes or both.

If interruptible contracts didn't exist, then we would have a Rolls Royce system that could handle one in twenty, fifty, one hundred etc winters. But we would need to pay for the construction and maintenance costs of that system every day for years on end without using it. Economically pointless.

National Grid issued a GBA (Gas Balancing Alert) at 17:11

"GBA National Grid has declared a GBA for Gas Day 09th January 2010."

I have not seen any official forecasts that expected that UK marketable nat gas supplies could decline at an annual rate of 20 % or perhaps more.

Good point, Rune. I think this could be a clear sign of the effect of the "demand destruction" affecting offshore hydrocarbon production: Originally on the basis of higher prices for oil and gas new oil and gas wells were planned extending from existing offshore platforms, which were also fed by existing wells from mature wells. But when the fuel prices plummeted due to the crisis these offshore platforms had to be abandoned much earlier than expected - including the new projects extending from them: These platforms became uneconomic as the revenues from the current production became too little to maintain the platforms including the new projects. And as the new fields are too small to justify to install a new platform on their own. So they will be lost forever.

This is my trial to explain what I read somewhere about a year ago. And in fact the North Sea projects did plummet considerably:

Crisis hits N Sea oil search
By Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent
Published: April 13 2009 03:00 |
The remaining lifespan of the UK's North Sea oil and gas production risks being halved as the economic crisis has prompted a plunge in exploration in one of the western world's most important deposits, the industry has warned.

The number of exploration wells being drilled in the North Sea has collapsed by 78 per cent in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the same period last year, according to the most recent industry data from Deloitte, the consulting firm.

In total, only 18 exploration and appraisal wells were drilled in the UK during the first quarter, marking a 41 per cent drop in total drilling activity compared with the same period last year. UK Oil and Gas, the industry group, is even more pessimistic, forecasting that total drilling could drop 66 per cent this year.

Derek Henderson, senior partner at Deloitte, said: "Unless exploration is at a healthy clip, it risks shortening the life of fields and the overall UK continental shelf, in this case."

Exploration and appraisal wells are critical to any oil region's long-term supply prospects. But they are particularly important for the North Sea, where ageing fields' production is rapidly declining.

The UK and Europe will increasingly have to rely on Russia for natural gas and the Middle East for oil.

The worsening exploration climate could knock 10-15 years off the North Sea's expected lifespan of 20-30 years, meaning almost half of all its infrastructure could be decommissioned within the next 11 years, UK Oil and Gas estimates.

Instead of satisfying 45 per cent of the UK's oil and gas needs in 2020, at the current investment pace the North Sea would only be able to meet 12 per cent of its demand.

Oil prices have plummeted from $147 a barrel in July 2008 to about $50 today.

The North Sea's situation is significantly worse than elsewhere because new discoveries tend to be smaller and rarer and old fields are becoming less productive and more expensive to maintain.

Analysts at Barclays Capital expect spending on global exploration and production to fall by only 12 per cent in 2009.

Companies - and the banks that fund them - are reluctant to explore the North Sea because oil prices at or about $50 a barrel make developing a new field, especially one that requires a lot of new infrastructure, a risky, if not foolhardy, venture.

The industry forecasts further consolidation but fears it could lose as many as 50,000 of its 400,000 jobs in the next two years.
The fall in exploration activity is so bad that the Department of Energy has had to postpone its offshore licensing round and the Treasury has indicated that it would give companies some tax relief in the Budget this month.

From 2010, the government is likely to suffer a significant drop in tax revenues because oil companies, together with banks, have been its most important sources of funding.

If this mechanism is really taking effect this means that the economic decline increased irreversibly the decline of offshore production. You may guess what happens if this sort of feed-back continues...

Permalink to said comment, for those interested.

What do the green areas on top of the red demarcate? LNG vs. pipeline?

Beautiful work as always!

Although gas production in the UK North Sea is falling alarmingly fast, remember that the UK Continental Shelf also includes West of Shetland, and the gas fields there start coming on line in 2012. Also, Norwegian gas production is still rising - Peak Gas for Norway is expected to be 2015. So the UK shouldn't run disastrously short of gas until the latter half of the decade: it's important not to "cry wolf" too soon.

However, note that the decline in North Sea gas comes despite ongoing development of new gas fields: we brought two on stream only a few months ago. Running hard so as not to go backwards quite as fast...

Also note that we are already using hydraulic fracking in tight reservoirs - I'm not sure how extensively - perhaps a well-informed reservoir engineer can advise? But anyway, it isn't a game-changing new technology which has still to be introduced here.

Rune, I suggest that it would be a valuable exercise to look closely at the European gas supply/demand balance for 2020. UK production will have collapsed by then, Norwegian production will at best be on plateau, gas production from the Netherlands may be falling off plateau, and the work at Uppsala (see http://aspo-usa.com/2009presentations/Bengt_Soderbergh_Oct_11_2009.pdf) indicates that Russian gas exports to the west may also be declining, as China's demand increases. Is it possible that by winter 2020 the entire gas supply will be required for domestic users, with none whatsoever left for power stations or other industrial users?

Part of this relates to different units being used in the US than the UK. Also, the National Grid has its own way of measuring things. Unless a person finds the data underlying the National Grid graphs, translates it to a new base, and remakes all of the graphs, it is difficult to get around this problem.

Sometimes a person wonders whether the confusing units have been adopted to keep reporters from fully understanding what is going on.

2GW of that is exports to France as we appear to be exporting flat out most of the time.

That would account for 900 tonnes an hour of coal or 4-4.5GW of gas.

I wonder if / when we will pull that plug?

Can't help you and I have had two accounts blocked this evening was Slightly, Chigurh and now Moss.
Perhaps it is the aliens come to help out.;¬)

Undertow, keep trawling through the jargon - you appear to be the main source of info in the UK.

It looks like the Milford haven site [refinery??] is saying 'we have run out of alternative fuel, can we have the gas back and pay big bucks for it??

Sorry folks, we are all wrong:

"Supplies are not running out," Mr Brown said in his podcast issued from Downing Street.

The prime minister added: "We've got plenty of gas in our own back yard - the North Sea - and we also have access to the large reserves in Norway and Netherlands via pipelines."

So we should stop worrying and go back to work.

And certainly Brown is also sure that there is plenty of money in our backyard so we shouldn't worry about these rumors of a "financial crisis". He just doesn't find that money right now...

This is the same Gordon Brown who:
Abolished boom and bust - I suppose a permanent bust does abolish abolished boom and bust - but that's not what he meant.
Sold off lots of our gold reserves at the bottom of the market.
Promised low inflation and stable growth.
Promised to abolish child poverty.
Promised to abolish prescription charges for people with long-term conditions.
Promised a referendum on the new European Union treaty.

Has made Britain on of the highest taxed countries in the world with the gap between richest and poorest at its widest since the Second World War.

A senior party insider has said he presides over a dysfunctional shambles. Brown has said if Labour win the election he would serve a full term in office.

I'm off to buy some thermals!

I've answered my own question, from here: http://mpower-energy.co.uk/Documents/UK%20Gas.doc

if anybody else was wondering - from the above doc (their spellings):

There are three kinds of gas storage – Long Term, Medium Term and short term!
Storage Facilities by type
Long term
Long term storage is relatively fast and easy to fill but delivers gas relatively slowly into the National Grid system in terms of volume. This storage is crucial in terms of price determination especially after the Christmas period when it is unlikely to be refilled until the summer months. Capacity at Christmas is usually the capacity remaining until the end of winter.

Rough – Long term storage facility.
Location -18 miles off the coast of Yorkshire
Owned by Centrica Storage LTD.
Medium Term Storage
Less Capacity than Long range storage but can inject gas into the National Grid system at a higher rate than Long term storage facilities.
Humbly Grove
Capacity - .28bcm
Aldbrough – Capacity .42 bcm
Short Term Storage
Short term storage takes a long time to fill (approximately 6 months) but has only 3-5 days gas supply for the UK if used to its fullest injection rate. Shrot term storage can inject gas into the National Grid system at a very high rate.
Isle of Grain
Type – LNG
Owner BP/Sonatrech have booked capacity until @ 2025
Capacity – 5-15bcm delivery to 13mcm per day
Milford Haven
Type – LNG
Capacity – 10-25bcm delivery to 13mcm per day
Milford Haven2
Type – LNG
Capacity – 10-25bcm delivery to 13mcm per day

Avonmouth
Owner – National Grid
Type – LNG
Capacity – 876.1 GWh
Injecability - 2.3GWh/day
Deliverability – 156GWh/d – duration 5.6 days
Dynevor Arms
Type – LNG
Capacity – 304.1 GWh
Injecability - 2.6GWh/day
Deliverability – 49.2GWh/d – duration 6.2 days
Glenmavis
Type – LNG
Capacity – 876.1 GWh
Injecability – 4.6GWh/day
Deliverability – 156GWh/d – duration 5.6 days
Partington
Type – LNG
Capacity – 1,121.9 GWh
Injectability - 2.4GWh/day
Deliverability – 219.8GWh/d – duration 5.1 days

Just great. Now we need the weather to warm up in Norway as well as the UK. Flows via Langeled have been bouncing up and down today (at about half normal flow rate currently). Missing gas is mainly being covered from MRS and SRS storage. At current drain rates we will not get through the winter if supplies via Langeled continue to suffer severe disruption.

Good news is average temp across the UK is now several degrees warmer than it has been recently but that's still well below seasonal norm. An atlantic weather system will finally creep in over the next few days though possibly bringing heavy snow followed by rain and a further slight thaw. It is also possible this weather system will bring more heavy snow to Norway but will ultimately not displace the high pressure currently sitting there. Very cold air will continue to sit across most of Europe.

I hope that permanent solutions to the Norwegian weather-related roduction problems can be found as a supply that becomes unreliable the colder it gets isn't exactly what we need...

Not that this would matter if we actually had decent storage capacity and flow rates though but I'm sure the government will blame Norway if the lights go out in the UK.

It took me a couple of minutes to understand what you are saying. In the US, 10/01/2010 is October 1, 2010 and 11/01/2010 is November 1, 2010. You are obviously using the British order, so you are talking about January 10 and January 11, 2010.

We hope there is another LNG ship coming shortly.

So the amount to come from storage has to be 63MCM/day. The website data shows the average from LRS, MRS and SRS has been 72MCM/day. I don't know where the difference is from, linepack maybe.

Well the Non-storage supply figure will assume all pipelines are working and contracted supply is being delivered. Supplies via the Langeled pipeline have now failed for the second time in a few days so additional storage flow has been called upon to plug some of that gap over the last few days while extra supplies are attempted to be sourced elsewhere or demand curtailed.

So over the next week or so LRS and MRS could handle the difference, at current use maybe not so much after that. LRS could in fact run at full tilt for another 56 days supplying 42MCM/day.

In summary just my thought is that in the next week there won't be any shortage and the national grid are conserving storage for later in the year.

Yes, MRS can be drained at current rates for another week or so but LNG at the import terminals runs out about Friday at current drain rates and Milford Haven import terminal has already effectively declared "Force Majeure". I hope more tankers are arriving and I hope the bad weather forecast for the area of the Milford Haven terminal doesn't disrupt things further.

Nice clear logical summary. Thanks.

Anywhere we can see the impact of the disconnections (contracted or otherwise)? The site is a forest of data and pretty hard to scan. Perhaps someone can present the idiots guide? - since the press is effectively useless as usual (catastrophe or no problems ever, depending on the source).