Professor David MacKay: Britain ‘must go nuclear’ to control climate

THE government’s chief scientific adviser on climate change has proposed a quadrupling of Britain’s nuclear power generation to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.

Professor David MacKay believes nuclear power could be the only way Britain can meet its soaring demand for electricity while keeping emissions under control.

He has calculated that renewable energy sources such as wind and tidal power will never provide more than a fraction of Britain’s electricity needs.

...MacKay also wants to see an end to the use of gas for central heating and the replacement of boilers with heat pumps that extract heat from the atmosphere. They run on electricity.

“Setting fire to chemicals like gas should be made a thermodynamic crime,” he said. “If people want heat they should be forced to get it from heat pumps. That would be a sensible piece of legislation.”

Re: Will California become America's first failed state?

Can California ever fix itself? More to the point, can the U.S., which has long looked to California for new ideas and directions and has built a society based on the same car centered life styles, fix itself?

Here's a quote that says it all.

Kotkin, who is writing an eagerly anticipated book about what America will look like in 2050, thinks much of it will still resemble the bedrock of the Californian dream: sturdy, wholesome suburbs for all – just done more responsibly. "We will still live in suburbs. You work with the society you have got. The question is how we make them more sustainable," he says.

Sorry guy, where's the energy to make it all happen? I left California back in 1976, after being unable to find work in the Recession of 1975. I also left because I could not tolerate the smog and I was in Northern California, not the Los Angeles area, which was much worse. When I left, the population of the San Francisco Bay Area was about 4 million and now it's about 8 million, TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE...

E. Swanson

Cornucopian Talking Points

(1) If oil prices are rising, it's due to speculation, and not to fundamental supply/demand factors;

(2) If oil prices are falling, it's because Peak Oil "theories" are wrong;

(3) If oil production is falling, especially in a rising price environment, it's because of "Resource Nationalism," i.e., if privately managed oil companies are developing a region, using the best available technology, with virtually no restriction on drilling, we don't see a production peak.

#3 of course requires one to pretend that: (A) Texas and the North Sea (which accounted for about 9% of total world cumulative crude oil production as of 2005) and similar regions don't exist; or (B) it requires one to believe in alternative history theories (Texas Communists & North Sea terrorist vegetarians) or (C) it requires one to believe that new and improved TFD (Technological Fairy Dust) will magically bring production back up to peak levels.

When I pressed Michael "Cornucopian" Lynch about Texas and the North Sea, he simply declared that these were not places where he would choose to drill wells, i.e., I think that he basically chose Door (A)--Texas and the North Sea were basically figments of my imagination.

EIA: The price of oil to be $131 per barrel in 2030.

Interview with EIA Administrator Richard Newell

As the world's economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In our reference case projection, world oil prices rise to $99 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $131 per barrel in 2030.

Well, there you have it folks, right form the horse's mouth. Mr. Newell did not speculate on what oil production will be in 2030 but he did say that the Caspian region would produce 5 percent of the world's oil in 2030. Right now Azerbaijan plus Kazakstan produce 3.5 percent of the world's oil. If you add Iran's share of Caspian oil then they are producing pretty close to 5 percent today.

Ron P.

From the article, 'World Bank welcomes new economic order from the ashes of crisis' comes this estimated peak oil date:

"One major thing that will describe the landscape in 2029 is that we will be beyond the point of peak oil. That will be the trigger for so many dominoes to fall."

2029? Most people on TOD assert peak occurred in July of 08, but this source claims it will not occur for another 20 years - wow! I keep seeing these estimates of peak oil thrown so far into the future, as if to say they agree oil is finite and understand the problems that will be associated with such an event, yet the can is kicked to some far off future date. But, I wonder what if any data they are interpreting to establish such timelines. Or is this simply the cornucopian interpretation of peak oil?

The peaking of oil and energy, the financial crisis, and a whole lot of other things are rendered meaningless when one understands the implications of the discoveries announced in this article:

"Arctic Seas Turn to Acid, Putting Vital Food Chain at Risk.... Carbon-dioxide emissions are turning the waters of the Arctic Ocean into acid at an unprecedented rate, scientists have discovered."

I would chastize the editor because it's Food Chains--PLURAL. I've already commented on the article at its host site. The planet's obituary should read: Killed by the Industrial Revolution and its Class War.

Hello TODers,

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/30/jon-stewart-schools-sean_n_3040...
-------------------------
Jon Stewart Schools Sean Hannity About History, The Food Chain (VIDEO)
-------------------------
Glad to see this in the MSM as the Circle of Life, ie the very fragile food chain and associated global energy & mineral resources, rules all creatures, great and small. The economy and related infrastructure is just a small flowrate subset of this Circle of Life and the fast-changing global climate.

As posted many times before: IMO, greater public awareness of endangered species and vastly elevated extinction rates can be a better change agent than trying to get J6P to understand the statistics of climate change. But obviously, when J6P puts both together mentally, then they should become even more alarmed.

Alas, as of this moment, I have not yet received an email reply from Victoria's Secret [just the normal auto-reply]. My thxs to all those who joined me in the email campaign to help raise awareness of WNS and the bat dieoff. I hope it was in the thousands, but I have no idea. Please continue your Peak Everything Outreach efforts.

Perhaps a future photographer will document these supermodels crying as their babies are dying...

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

Jay Hanson Thermo/Gene Quote: "The best the poor can hope for is a quick and painless death."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091004/ap_on_re_us/us_meltdown_nursing_home...
---------------------------
Waves of new fund cuts imperil US nursing homes

..The funding crisis comes as the nation's baby boomers age ever closer toward needing nursing home care. The nation's 16,000 nursing homes housed 1.85 million people last year, up from 1.79 million in 2007, U.S. Census Bureau figures show.

.."A 92-year-old woman was screaming and crying as she was loaded into the ambulance, saying 'This is my home,'" Griswold First Selectman Philip Anthony said.
-----------------------------
IMO, I found it interesting that US golf courses = US nursing homes. If Tiger Woods doesn't plow Augusta National soon as a converted Master Gardener: I would expect nursing homes to close much faster than golf courses due to the increasing wealth concentration into ever fewer Topdogs.

As posted long ago with various scenarios detailed: I expect and accept that I will die under horrible conditions. I cannot imagine myself lucky enough to die of advanced old age in a heated or A/C room, with good food and medicine, plus caring nurses and doctors. Glad I have a wheelbarrow, I just hope I can convince somebody to give me one last ride...

http://heartscanblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/vitamin-d-and-programmed-aging...
Vitamin D and Programmed Aging?
Does maintaining higher vitamin D also maintain youthfulness?

A practical way of looking at it is that anyone 40 years old or older has lost the majority of ability for vitamin D activation. 

This often makes me wonder if the loss of vitamin D activating potential is nature's way to get rid of us. After all, after 40, we've pretty much had our opportunity to recreate and make our contribution to the species (at least in a primitive world in which humans evolved): we've exhausted our reproductive usefulness to the species.

Is the programmed decline of vitamin D skin activation a way to ensure that we develop diseases of senescence (aging)?

The list of potential consequences of vitamin D deficiency includes: osteoporosis, poor balance and coordination, falls and fractures; cancer of the breast, bladder, colon, prostate, and blood; reductions in HDL, increases in triglycerides; increased inflammation (C-reactive protein, CRP); declining memory and mentation; coronary heart disease.

Isn't that also pretty much a list that describes aging?



A fascinating argument in support of this idea came from study from St Thomas’ Hospital and the London School of Medicine:

 "Higher serum vitamin D concentrations are associated with longer leukocyte telomere length in women
."

Telomeres are the "tails" of DNA that were formerly thought to be mistakes, just coding for nonsense. But more recent thinking has proposed that telomeres may provide a counting mechanism that shortens with aging and accelerates with stress and illness. This study suggests that both vitamin D and inflammation (CRP) impact telomere length: the lower the vitamin D, the shorter the telomere length, particularly when inflammation is greater.

Hello TODers,

Evidently, the ruling IMF topdog countries haven't sufficiently contemplated WT's ELM & Duncan's Re-Equalizing, and it's starting to piss off the rest of the G20 and other smaller countries:

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN04331859
-------------------------
IMF members make little headway on power shift

.."The task of realigning quota shares with current global realities remains politically vexing," the IMF's board said in a report weighing in on the issue at the Fund's semiannual meeting here.

While the steering committee supported an agreement struck just more than a week ago by the Group of 20 nations to shift at least 5 percent of the IMF's voting power to developing economies, emerging powers said it was not enough...
---------------------------
Graceful US & OECD acceptance of inevitable Powerdown to the approx global uniform MPP of roughly 4 BOE/C by 2030, or my interim US WAG of [19 @ '19], could serve the planet well in terms of mitigation for all plus the assertion of Optimal Overshoot Decline. In short, since the US will find itself on the steepest roller-coaster ride down the final downslope, we might as well learn to enjoy the thrill ride:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/DuncanFigure5.png

It was certainly fun so far if one examines the US historic roller-coaster ride from '65 to '07. In my mind: the US can't wastefully continue to consumptively 'party like its 1999' @ 59.9, which was the third highest US BOE/C peak....

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/DuncanFigure1.png

...We 'Murkans just need to learn to 'party like its 1999' @ 5.77 BOE/C like its was for 165 other Non-OECD countries just ten years ago...

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/DuncanFigure3.png

My fond hope is that the typical postPeak party in 2030 requires adults racing happy, laughing kids in wheelbarrows instead of machete' moshpits.

EDIT: for reading clarity

Hello TODers,

I wonder if this article about Mugabe & his wife will be the typical model of how the global elites will build their own postPeak farms and eco-tech bunkers for warlord domination:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-10-02-voa50.cfm
--------------------
Zimbabwe's Mugabe Has Built Secret Farming Empire

..Raftopolous notes that Mugabe's acquisitions are further evidence of the rapid accumulation of land by the elite who surround Mr. Mugabe. He says it appears to be an emerging military agricultural complex of the military and political elite who now control key sectors of the state and economy.

Neither Mr. Mugabe nor his wife, nor the agricultural minister Joseph Made replied to questions about whether public money was used to equip and run the first couple's farming operations...
---------------------
My bet is that lots & lots of Zim taxpayer money was used. I hope you read the entire weblink, not just the teaser segments posted above.

Hello TODers,

This old country club was once very exclusive and very discriminatory, but plunging economics have forced them to open their facilities to the general public. But IMO, this will only give them a brief respite as postPeak decline hammers home. I posted the link for the snippet below on other FL courses that have gone kaput:

http://www.biscaynetimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&i...
--------------------
..Economics, of course, compels the change. The old model no longer works. For one thing, tennis and golf have been in national decline. Florida golf courses were closing during the 2001-2006 real-estate bubble to make way for developers who never developed. Just up the street, the Williams Island golf course is overgrown with weeds rather than 825 townhouses. Recent South Florida golf course casualties are legion: California Club, Presidential, Fontainebleau, Miramar, and Raintree are just part of the list...

The Miami Shores Country Club is not likely to become yet another casualty, but it has dropped below break-even, with about $3.5 million in revenue this year, down from $3.8 million two years ago...
---------------------

http://www.myeyewitnessnews.com/news/local/story/North-Memphis-Golf-Cour...
--------------------------
North Memphis Golf Course On Hold

Plans to build a golf course in North Memphis are on hold. Eight years ago, the First Tee program announced it was building a 9-hole course at the old Firestone plant just off Danny Thomas Blvd.

The site was cleared and a practice area built, but the course has yet to be finished...

..Bridges says given the economy, delays, and a decline in the interest of golf, the course may not be built. Bridges says, “The golf courses in the city are closed forty to fifty percent of the time. We just don’t know at this stage if we want to proceed with building a course.”
---------------------------
Let's hope not, converting it back to farm land maybe the better postPeak choice.

Paul Krugman is inviting questions at Ask Paul Krugman Questions About the Economy. Here's my question:

You estimate productive capacity (and hence demand insufficiency) based on the recent peak. What if the maximum productive capacity has been reduced for some reason: e.g. the world can never pump that much oil again [peak oil has to happen one day]? What if our productive assets are worth less now for some reason. E.g. they are optimized for the oil economy?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy/05greenspan.html
------------------------
Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve board, said on Sunday that the latest job report showing the nation’s unemployment at 9.8 percent was “pretty awful” and said he expected the figure to climb even higher...
-----------------------
Perhaps Greenspan could ask Krugman the following question: "Do you have any idea where I could catch a honest data-clue to what lies ahead?"

Maybe Krugman might email back to Greenspan the weblinks TheOilDrum and TheAutomaticEarth.

Naaah, we can't be that lucky.

On the California issue; I think it's terribly unhelpful (and quite dangerous) to isolate states from one another. In an economy as intertwined and fragile as the United States', the GHG emissions or fuel usage of one applies to all, particularly as we are all ultimately equally liable for the import tab.

Furthermore, every state has externalized emissions. For example, our CO2 emissions here in Louisiana (and, presumable, our fuel usage) are among the highest per capita (if not the highest) in the US. But we also refine a huge percentage of the nation's petroleum and export a great deal of electricity to Texas, all in a state with a population less than 4.5 million. I would argue that the only reason the carbon intensity of the US economy has remained relatively flat in recent decades is because we have essentially outsourced our emissions to other countries along with our manufacturing sector.

Considering the size of the Californian economy and its relative carbon intensity compared to other, more polluting states, such as Texas or Georgia, I'd say they're doing pretty well. Their current economic malaise is a separate and distinct crisis from their environmental initiatives and their budgetary problems are more an issue of the penchant for Californians to place more demands on their government through referendum and then reject any sort of tax hike. I think they have suffered the worst symptoms of the irrational exuberance that tends to plague the American economy during good times. The resulting loss of revenue has forced them to gut important state services, such as education, but this may be a growing national trend as well. While not as dramatic as in California, almost every state has had to make cuts to education and increased the costs of attending public universities.

Fundamentally, we've spent too many of our resources reinforcing the consumer culture and have done little to build up public infrastructure and services. Furthermore, we've spent some 8 - 10 trillion dollars on defense and war making in the past decade. These sorts of investments have perhaps some of the lowest economic returns of any other sort of public spending. Building infrastructure or improving public services ultimately generate economic returns that bombs and bullets cannot match.

Finally, we are an externally financed country; a net importer of borrowed capital. Any interest earned is earned by outside shareholders, whereas in the past deficit spending was financed through the sale of war bonds, savings bonds, and other means of internal finance. We invested in ourselves and generally were repaid with dividends.

The problem isn't with California: they were a model of the American system for decades. The problem is with the American system and I think we're going to have to get used to 1 to 2% annual GDP growth for many years while we rid ourselves of our debts.