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Drumbeat: September 9, 2009
Posted by Leanan on September 9, 2009 - 10:05am
Exxon May Fall Short of 2009 Output Growth Target
(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest U.S. oil company, may not meet its 2 percent production growth target this year amid shrinking European demand for natural gas, said Senior Vice President Mark Albers.The Irving, Texas-based company still plans to boost oil and gas output by an average of 2 percent to 3 percent annually during the next half decade, Albers told analysts today during an energy conference in New York.
“This year’s production in particular has been impacted by lower European gas demand driven by the global recession,” Albers said during his presentation. “However, our projects, base production and work programs remain on track to deliver the anticipated growth in capacity as we enter next year.”
The (Not So) Hidden Costs of Crude
As the world’s oldest, biggest oil fields slowly tap out, companies are spending ever more to drill farther afield and in deeper water to keep the world’s cars and furnaces going. This has led to environmental disruption from the Amazon to the Arctic. Now, it has caused a spreading stain over hundreds of square miles of the Timor Sea between Australia and Indonesia, where oil is spilling unabated from a well drilled by PTTEP, based in Thailand. Still, for the most part, damage from oil spills happens far from the gas stations and parking lots frequented by consumers of this enduring commodity. That’s one reason Peter Maass, no friend of big oil, said here last year that it was more ethical to drill in United States waters than to continue to outsource our environmental problems.
Valero Cuts Use of Maya Oil, Shifts to Lighter Grades
(Bloomberg) -- Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. refiner, is shutting coking units and processing lighter oil in order to increase refining margins, Chief Executive Officer Bill Klesse said today in a presentation to investors.Klesse said that Valero is cutting its use of Mexican Maya crude by 60 percent, along with shutting cokers and fluid catalytic crackers. He said that he expected consolidation and rationalization of assets throughout the industry.
Marshall Auerback: “Many years of economic stagnation" interview: excerpt
I think too little attention has been paid to the role of speculation in last year's oil market rally. Part of this is a usual blind spot amongst economists. Paul Krugman’s presence in this camp lent credibility to the “oil prices are warranted” view. The Princeton economist had been a Cassandra on the housing mania and had also correctly anticipated that the deregulation of energy prices in California could lead to manipulation. So Krugman, sensitive to the notion that speculation can distort prices, nevertheless fell in with the argument that oil prices were simply reflecting supply and demand.Yet that belief was spectacularly incorrect. Oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July and fell even more dramatically than it had risen. By October, prices had fallen to $64 a barrel. Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum described the world as “drowning in oil.”8 A report by the Commodities Futures Exchange Commission attributed the large swings in oil prices to speculation. CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton said that earlier studies that found that the moves were the result of supply and demand relied on “deeply flawed data.”
Malls think outside the (big) box
In Nashville, Tenn., One Hundred Oaks Mall welcomed a new kind of tenant in February: the Vanderbilt Medical Center, a sprawling facility that, at 436,000 square feet, takes up almost half the mall.When owner Tony Ruggeri and a partner bought the space in 2006 the mall faced a dire 55% vacancy rate with a second floor that was virtually dead. Now the health care facility, which had its main opening in February, brings in almost 1,000 employees and just as many patients every day.
Saudi sees shift in strong oil market
"Yes, yes absolutely," Naimi said when asked whether economic growth was driving the price."Just look at the charts. Don't you see all the stimulus spending? It's not going to run out, there is going to be growth and there is going to be spending."
He said high inventories for now were "irrelevant" to the oil price.
"You guys must realise that there is a fundamental change in the market. Economic growth is the name of the game, that's what's going to drive the price. As long as economic growth is there, the price is going to go up," he told reporters.
The Libyan gold rush and the reasons behind it
So what makes Libyan oil and gas so special - so valuable that the government might want to intervene in something as sensitive as the Lockerbie bomber's punishment in order to preserve Britain's chance of a part in the Libyan gold rush? And why is it only now, with the Megrahi affair in the headlines, that Libyan oil is such an issue?As usual, the driver is geo-political - national security coupled with energy scarcity and price. At present, most of the West's oil comes from the Middle East while much of the gas comes from Russia both fragile and sensitive territories.
That's why bringing Libya in from the cold was, and is, so crucial. After 20 years of being cut off from the US and the UK because of the sanctions imposed back in the 1980s by Ronald Reagan, Libya has more or less been excluded from Western markets so its oil and gas production has been hampered. Production peaked in the 1970s with 3.3 million barrels a day, falling to 1.85 million by 2007.
The Coming Wave of Resource Nationalizations
Since sometime in 2006 we have had this theory of "The Coming Wave of Resource Nationalizations". The latter has an "s" to impress upon you that we are talking about all natural resources in all countries. Not literally, but we believe it will be a worldwide sweeping event encompassing all classes of natural resources. It sounds scary, yet it will be akin to a depression – it's merely a recession when your neighbor loses his job and will only turn into a depression when you lose yours. We also believe that this will be the Chapter One of what some call the (coming) "Resource Wars".
Katrina — questions about energy
When Americans were sitting in long lines at gas stations after Katrina forced a shutdown of the oil platforms along the Gulf Coast, the oil companies said the higher prices were needed to get the system back in operation. When gasoline prices later rose above $4 per gallon, they said the billions in profits were needed due to the rising costs of exploration and production.Experts keep saying there are no shortages of oil, but each time we have a hiccup in the supply lines, the oil companies begin ratcheting up prices like we were going to run out of the stuff tomorrow. Lynch says prices now appear headed toward $30 per barrel, but they were showing no signs of abating until a worldwide recession slashed demand.
Encana says Horn River ranks high as shale-gas find
CALGARY, Alberta, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Horn River shale-gas region in a remote corner of northern British Columbia could hold as much as 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, EnCana Corp said on Wednesday, placing the find among North America's biggest discoveries.Data from companies operating in the region, including partner Apache Corp, EOG Resources Inc and Devon Energy Corpand others, shows the Horn River play ranks among the largest gas finds in North America as exploration in the region firms up its potential, Mike Graham, EnCana's executive vice-president, said at an investment conference.
Mexico Government Seeks Taxes, Spending Cuts to Avoid Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Mexican President Felipe Calderon proposed spending cuts and increases in income, corporate and sales taxes as part of “unprecedented” steps to offset diminishing oil revenue and prevent a credit-rating reduction.The 2010 budget proposal cuts spending by 218 billion pesos ($16.3 billion), the Finance Ministry said yesterday. Calderon’s economic package would also merge some government ministries, modify tax laws and change rules in a bid to boost competition in the energy, banking and telecommunications industries.
Baker Hughes expects modest North American growth
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N) is anticipating "modest" growth in the number of oil and gas rigs drilling in North America through 2011, the oilfield services company's chief executive said on Wednesday.Chad Deaton joined the ranks of drilling executives who are forecasting that the North American rig count, which is now at less than half its 23-year peak this time last year, is unlikely to recover dramatically because fewer rigs will be needed to produce natural gas in the prolific shale regions.
Chevron Exits 6 Fuel Markets, Plans to Quit 3 More
(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, has exited six retail fuel markets this year and plans to quit three more by the end of December to focus on more profitable businesses.Shedding filling stations will cut costs by $900 million, Chevron Chief Financial Officer Patricia Yarrington said in slides prepared for a presentation the San Ramon, California- based company is giving today in New York.
Suncor scraps plan for Montreal refinery expansion
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T , Canada's biggest energy company, has scrapped plans for a $1-billion heavy oil processing unit at its Montreal refinery after determining other investments offer richer returns, a spokesman said Wednesday.
Gazprom opens new pipeline through Lithuania
SAKIAI, Lithuania—Gazprom on Wednesday opened a new pipeline across Lithuania that will allow the Russian gas company to increase supplies to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland.
China Drops Libyan Oil Deal Amid Resistance
The Chinese are used to encountering resistance from Western governments when they move to buy up Western companies, but now Libya is giving the acquisitive nation a hard time as well.
Why Is Congress Agnostic About Natural Gas?
The big picture here is that the oil and coal lobbies are flush with cash (and politicians) after decades of subsidization by the US government. The newly created natural gas lobby is not doing a good job of dealing with the entrenched powers that be. While the nat gas lobby has begun a necessary campaign in Washington, DC, they cannot be successful with this strategy alone. The oil and coal powers are too entrenched and too powerful. The only way the natural gas lobby can be successful is going straight to the American people. In this respect, they are failing miserably.
Living With Coal: Climate policy’s most inconvenient truth
All fossil fuels emit carbon dioxide when burned, but the real heart of the warming problem is coal. Emissions from coal are growing faster than from any other fossil fuel. Beyond greenhouse-gas pollution, coal is linked to a host of other environmental troubles such as local air pollution, which is why a powerful coalition of environmentalists in the richest and greenest countries is rallying to stop coal. Mired in opposition, barely any new coal plants are being built anywhere in the industrialized world. Coal, it may seem, is on the precipice.Yet coal remains indispensable. No other fuel matches its promise of cheap and abundant energy for development. About half the electricity in the United States comes from burning coal. Germany, the anchor of old Europe’s economy, is a coal country. Poland, the heart of new Europe, gets 90 percent of its electricity from coal. The fast-growing economies of Asia, in particular China and India, are all coal-fired. Indeed, while the outlook for coal consumption in the industrialized world is flat, soaring Asian growth is expected nearly to double world consumption by 2030.
Busted budgets, failing schools, overcrowded prisons, gridlocked government—California no longer beckons as America’s promised land. Except, that is, in one area: creating a new energy economy. But is its path one the rest of the nation can follow?
Xcel launches Boulder as first 'smart grid' city
it has finished building the infrastructure and has launched the software needed to run its "SmartGridCity" project in Boulder, making it the world's "first fully functioning smart grid enabled city."
'Contraception cheapest way to combat climate change'
Every £4 spent on family planning over the next four decades would reduce global CO2 emissions by more than a ton, whereas a minimum of £19 would have to be spent on low-carbon technologies to achieve the same result, the research says.
Fascism, Genocide, and Extinction: An Indictment Against Civilization
What if it is civilization itself—the very thing Gore and friends are saving—that is the cause of ecological catastrophe? “For the first time in more than three billion years of life, a living system is relentlessly creating the means not of self-preservation, but self-destruction” (Schmookler 175); that “living system is civilization. In the proper historical context, civilization is revealed to be a fascist system of control, a ten thousand-year genocide against sustainable ways of life that pushes humanity toward extinction.
Love a local business? Buy a share
HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON, N.Y. (Fortune Small Business) -- John Halko was halfway through renovating an expanded space for Comfort, his mostly organic eatery in Hastings-on-Hudson, N.Y., when the credit crisis hit. His source of funding -- a home-equity line -- ran out, so he applied for a loan at a local bank. He was turned down.Halko wasn't ready to throw in the dish towel. His solution? The modern equivalent of an old-fashioned barn raising. Instead of soliciting neighbors to lift timbers, he asked them to open their wallets. For every $500 they purchased in "Comfort Dollars," his patrons received a $600 credit toward meals at the restaurant. As the community rallied around Comfort, Halko says, "it gave us hope." He raised $25,000 in six months, and the new, larger space - now called Comfort Lounge -- opened for business in May.
World Threatened by 4 Degrees of Warming, U.K.’s Miliband Says
(Bloomberg) -- The world risks warming by 4 degrees Celsius by 2100, and there’s a “real danger” the United Nations won’t reach a deal to fight climate change by its December deadline, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband said.
North Sea cod 'doomed by climate change'
Cod are doomed to disappear from the North Sea because of climate change and not just as a result of over-fishing, researchers from the Royal Society have claimed.In the past 40 years the average temperature of the North Sea has increased by one degree centigrade with catastrophic effects on its delicate eco-systems.
Developing World's Energy Needs Set Stage for Fight
NOIDA, India -- At a wedding ceremony in New Delhi, the power blinked off just as the groom was placing the ring on his bride's finger. A factory in Nigeria was forced to relocate because the cost and scarcity of electricity made it impossible to turn a profit. Street protests over the chronic lack of power in Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, turned deadly as mobs chanted anti-government slogans.Scenes like these unfolded with increasing frequency this summer across the developing world as the demand for energy expanded but governments eager to create more industrialized economies failed to keep up.
Developing nations' urgent need for more energy has become a central issue this year as developed countries -- including the United States -- push for a global reduction in carbon emissions ahead of a climate change conference scheduled for December in Copenhagen. Many African, Latin American and Asian countries want to avoid legally binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions, blamed for global warming. They say that their emissions are well below those of the developed world and that such limits would hinder their efforts to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, even though economic growth would also inevitably expand the nations' carbon footprints as more of the poor gain access to electricity, air conditioners, refrigerators and cars.
Platts: OPEC Bumps Up Output to 28.79MM BOPD
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production averaged 28.79 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, up 220,000 b/d from July, as Iraq and several other producers raised volumes from the previous month, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed September 8.Excluding Iraq, which does not participate in OPEC output agreements, production from the 11 members bound by quotas rose by 120,000 b/d to 26.24 million b/d, the survey showed.
Saudis Threatened by Al-Qaeda Terror, Yemeni Rebels
Saudi King Abdullah may decide to intervene militarily if the conflict on his border threatens to spread to the country’s own disaffected Shiite minority in the eastern oil-producing region, said Mustafa Alani, a regional security expert at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center.“If you have a terrorist issue and a rebellion that is unfriendly to Saudi Arabia, that is a recipe for disaster for the Saudis,” said Rochdi Younsi, head of Middle East research at the New York-based Eurasia Group.
The conflict in Yemen may also be part of a pattern of confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two vie for regional pre-eminence. They already are engaged in a proxy battle for influence in Lebanon and are at odds over Iraq and possible Iranian efforts to exploit dissatisfaction among the Shiite communities in other Arab Persian Gulf states.
Russian reporter critical of dam accident attacked
MOSCOW – A fire broke out Wednesday at the Siberian hydroelectric plant that was wrecked in a deadly industrial accident last month, prompting an evacuation of workers but no injuries, the dam operator said....On Tuesday, Russia's top audit agency said a 2007 probe found that most of the dam's equipment was obsolete and that auditors had forwarded the findings to prosecutors.
Meanwhile Wednesday, a Russian reporter who wrote scathing articles about the accident said he was attacked by unknown assailants.
Russia Reaches Agreements on Iraqi Power, Pipelines
(Bloomberg) -- Russia reached agreements on joint power projects and natural-gas pipelines in Iraq after sending its first official delegation to the Middle Eastern country since the U.S. invasion.
Lula Says Not In Brazil's Interest To Join OPEC
Brazil has no interest in joining the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) because it does not aspire to become a crude oil exporter, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.
Venezuela Oil Minister Not Coming To OPEC Mtg-Sources
VIENNA -(Dow Jones)- The oil minister of Venezuela, a core member of OPEC, is set not to attend the organization's meeting due later Wednesday, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday.
CNPC Gets $30 Billion Loan for Overseas Oil Takeovers
(Bloomberg) -- China National Petroleum Corp., parent of the world’s biggest company by market value, received a $30 billion loan to fund overseas expansion as the country’s government stepped up its hunt for energy resources.
Israeli Energy Cos To Begin Drilling For Oil By Dead Sea
JERUSALEM -(Dow Jones)- Three Israeli energy companies said Wednesday they have received permission to start drilling for oil on the shore of the Dead Sea.
Chevron May Foot Legal Bills for Man Who Taped Judge
(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp., battling a $27 billion environmental lawsuit in Ecuador, said it may pay the legal bills of a U.S. businessman whose secret recordings of meetings with the judge on the case led the jurist to step down.
Brazilian oil field holds 1.1-2 bln barrels: BG
LONDON (AFP) – British energy producer BG Group on Wednesday said that an oil and gas field it helped to discover off the coast of Brazil holds between 1.1 and 2.0 billion barrels."The Guara discovery in the Santos Basin pre-salt, offshore Brazil is now estimated to contain recoverable volumes of 1.1 to 2.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent," BG said in a statement.
Perhaps the market is beginning to take the Peak Oil Theory seriously? But we understand the importance between gold, oil and our stomach. Perhaps Nate Hagen understated the magnitude of the recent IEA report when he wrote, “the initial language in this year’s Executive Summary is of an urgent nature.”
Peak Oil Investing Hedge Fund Launch
New York (HedgeCo.net) - Hedge fund investor, logi ENERGY LLC., has announced the formation of The Peak Oil Value Fund. Launched September 8, the new hedge fund is the first of its kind aimed at institutional and accredited investors.“We believe that the effects of Peak Oil on the markets are a temporary Global Macro series of events” Larry Ortega CIO of the Peak Oil Value Fund said, “We only have a few years to take advantage of these opportunities.“
Boone Pickens Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is on Energy
Next up is T. Boone Pickens' hedge fund, BP Capital Management. He runs an energy-centric set of funds out of Dallas, Texas and is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory. On the positive side of things, he has landed himself on Forbes' billionaire list. Yet on the negative side of things, he also graced the list of top hedge fund manager losers of 2008.
Inflation Fear Pushes U.S. Endowments Deeper Into Commodities
(Bloomberg) -- George Washington University is increasing holdings of commodities such as oil and natural gas out of concern that a return to inflation rates last seen in the 1970s may ravage the value of its $1 billion endowment.
Natural Gas Stocks: The Ultimate Form of Stored Solar Energy
I have made the point in previous articles that natural gas, oil and coal are like giant batteries that nature has provided. They are the ultimate form of stored “solar” energy.To over-simplify for explanation of this perspective, if it were not for photosynthesis courtesy of the sun, plants could not grow and thrive and most species of animals could not live. If plants and animals had not lived and then died over the eons of pre-recorded time, giving up their water and leaving behind their carbon, there would be no fossil fuels. Centuries and millennia of compacting the remaining carbon in these life forms created these giant batteries for our use.
ScienceDaily — Americans used more solar, nuclear, biomass and wind energy in 2008 than they did in 2007, according to the most recent energy flow charts released by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The nation used less coal and petroleum during the same time frame and only slightly increased its natural gas consumption. Geothermal energy use remained the same.
ADB to ‘Scale Up’ Clean Investment, Fund Manager Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Asian Development Bank, which has committed about $375 million to clean-energy funds, plans to “scale up” spending on pollution-reduction projects in Asia as developers struggle to borrow in a recession, an official said.
Hurricane Fred becomes a Category 2 storm
MIAMI – Hurricane Fred has quickly strengthened to a Category 2 storm in the Atlantic and forecasters say it could become a major hurricane later in the day.
Federal survey finds coal ash sites in 35 states
WASHINGTON – The toxic leftovers from burning coal for power are sitting in nearly 600 sites in 35 states, according to a federal survey released Tuesday.Spills have occurred at 34 of those sites over the last decade.
Laos power plant misses jumbo payout
To mine lignite these days is as unhealthy as admitting to smoking five packs of cigarettes per day. Lignite is a dirty fossil fuel, so heavy in sulfur, carbon and water that often the only effective way of getting energy from its source is to process the lignite at the mine's mouth. Otherwise, the cost of transporting the coal often makes it uneconomic compared with other energy sources.A 2007 New Zealand report called lignite the "wettest, most inefficient and polluting coal there is" and noted in its assessment of a plan there to convert lignite to liquid fuels that one lignite facility would produce twice as much carbon dioxide per year as the total amount generated by coal-fired electricity in all of New Zealand.
Because of concerns about climate change, a lot of current environmentalist advocacy — including movies like “An Inconvenient Truth” — concentrates on the dire results of burning fossil fuels. Joe Berlinger’s “Crude,” a thorough and impassioned new documentary, focuses its gaze on production rather than consumption. The film, which follows the fitful progress of a class-action lawsuit undertaken on behalf of the people of the Ecuadorean Amazon, is not about the unintended consequences of using petroleum. Instead, it examines the terrible, frequently unacknowledged costs of extracting oil from the ground.
It sounds like something out of a sci-fi novel. Solar power plants orbiting the planet, each the size of 700 Canadian football fields, beaming clean energy down to Earth 24 hours a day so we can run our factories, charge our gadgets and keep our home appliances humming.But for the scientists and engineers attending the International Symposium on Solar Energy from Space, a three-day conference this week in Toronto, there's nothing fictional about it. In their view, building massive space-based solar power systems represents, over the long term, one of the most effective ways of tackling the double menace of global warming and peak oil.
US firm wins huge solar power project in China
WASHINGTON (AFP) – US energy giant First Solar won a deal with China to build the world's largest solar power plant in the Mongolian desert which officials say could mitigate climate change concerns.First Solar will construct the two-gigawatt plant in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) inked Tuesday with Chinese officials at the company's headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.
Okla. researchers look for cash in the switchgrass
ARDMORE, Okla. – Watching grass grow is tedious, but researchers in the Oklahoma Panhandle say they'll stare at their switchgrass — all 1,000 acres of it — until they know whether they've found a commercially viable source of biofuel.The site is billed as the largest such project in the world as scientists try to determine if making ethanol from switchgrass is cost effective. The goal is to determine whether small-scale experiments of using the tall, thin plant native to the Great Plains to make ethanol can be duplicated on a large scale.
ND agency aims to resolve ethanol plant insolvency
BISMARCK, N.D. – North Dakota's Public Service Commission plans to seek permission to go ahead with a state insolvency case against an ethanol factory that is under bankruptcy protection from its creditors.
NRC seeks better leak detection at US nuke plants
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Federal regulators say they're looking for better ways to detect leaks from buried pipes at nuclear power plants.The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Tuesday that it has told its staff to consider whether programs to find underground leaks need to be improved.
How Air Pollution Can Damage the Heart
Sitting in traffic can certainly be infuriating enough to raise your blood pressure. But new research shows that traffic can raise your blood pressure and put your heart at risk in a more direct way - by exposing you to the pollution in exhaust fumes.
Capping of plane emissions 'vital'
LONDON (AFP) – The government's official climate change advisors warned Wednesday that the country may have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2050 to accommodate the continued growth of the aviation industry.An 80-percent cut on 1990 emission levels is already planned for households and industry but the Climate Change Committee (CCC) states that another 10 percent may be needed to allow the aviation sector to expand.
Passengers face new tax to halt rise in air travel
Tens of billions of pounds will have to be raised through flight taxes to compensate developing countries for the damage air travel does to the environment, according to the Government’s advisory body on climate change.Ticket prices should rise steadily over time to deter air travel and ensure that carbon dioxide emissions from aviation fall back to 2005 levels, the Committee on Climate Change says. It believes that airlines should be forced to share the burden of meeting Britain’s commitment to an 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050.
Carbon Auction Prices Set to Fall Amid Delays in Senate Bill
(Bloomberg) -- Prices of permits to emit carbon dioxide in the U.S. Northeast may fall to the lowest levels on record at an auction today as the economy shrinks and the Senate delays establishing a national pollution-trading market.The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for 10 states from Maryland to Maine plans to sell 30.6 million permits at its fifth quarterly auction after prices fell 50 percent in the past year. The deepest recession in five decades sent natural gas prices tumbling 79 percent and cut demand for power from coal- fired plants, reducing the need for carbon contracts.
Climate bill needed for U.S. security, ex-officials insist
WASHINGTON — America's national security is at risk unless Congress and the Obama administration end partisan wrangling and agree on legislation to reduce U.S. contributions to climate change, a bipartisan group of former presidential advisers, cabinet members, senators and military leaders said Tuesday.The energy and climate debate is divisive, but it's possible for the government to devise a "clear, comprehensive, realistic and broadly bipartisan plan to address our role in the climate change crisis," declared the Partnership for a Secure America, a group that seeks a centrist, bipartisan approach to security and foreign policy.
Federal agency advances walrus listing petition
ANCHORAGE, Alaska – A second Arctic marine mammal moved closer to an Endangered Species listing due to global warming Tuesday with a petition to grant the Pacific walrus protection passing its first review.
Tornado Threat Increases as Gulf Hurricanes Get Larger
Tornadoes that occur from hurricanes moving inland from the Gulf Coast are increasing in frequency, according to researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology. This increase seems to reflect the increase in size and frequency among large hurricanes that make landfall from the Gulf of Mexico. The findings can be found in Geophysical Research Letters online and in print in the September 3, 2009 issue.“As the size of landfalling hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico increases, we’re seeing more tornadoes than we did in the past that can occur up to two days and several hundred miles inland from the landfall location,” said James Belanger, doctoral student in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and lead author of the paper.
Turkey tells Iraq, Syria: No water
ANKARA, Turkey (UPI) -- Turkey says it cannot give drought-stricken Iraq and Syria any more water from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, claiming it's short of water itself as it forges ahead with a mammoth dam-building program.The thirsty downstream states, witnessing their farmland turning into dustbowls and their people migrating to overcrowded cities, say Turkey's dams are the root of the problem. Both rivers rise in Turkish Anatolia.
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"Teenager invents £23 solar panel that could be solution to developing world's energy needs ... made from human hair"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1212005/Teenager-invents-...
Naturally-occurring melanins have been recognized as organic semiconductors for decades. They also absorb UV photons and convert the energy to heat (internal vibrational modes) rather than some other form. Because the internal conversion is so fast, one suspects that the melanin is functioning as a polymer conductor, with some other material providing the electrons, along the lines of dye-sensitized solar cells. It would be nice to have more technical details of the cell design.
The talking heads on CNBC this morning were mocking the "double-dippers" and other economic pessimists, claiming that they've been proved wrong and everyone now accepts that the recession is over.
Not Denninger. He thinks things are still bad, and getting worse.
He also has this about employment:
I'm starting to think that your concern that Obama may be Hoover instead of FDR might be justified. We pass one small stimulus package, then declare the recession over. I think that this may be 1931 not 1939.
I think the depression (meaning, more than 2 consecutive quarters of recession) is not over. I think it's a pretty bad sign when even the conservative old order Amish start talking about how bad the economy is getting... or when "for sale" signs start getting extremely creative... or when owners of stores that sell necessities (clothes, kitchen wares, and even some types of food) start saying that business has taken a sudden downturn.
But perhaps I'm seeing only things that I desire (?????) to see ... and haven't become aware of the true data yet.
8^)
Until we become open and honest about the problems we do have we'll never get around to dealing with them.
Things are definitely still going down hill and people who were always living pretty close to the edge paycheck to paycheck are falling father and farther behind-most of them with no hope of catching up again so far as I can see.Those who have actually lost thier jobs are now living in serious numbers with thier parents and friends.
There are all sorts of bargains at yard sales these days-things that would never normally be sold ,such a collections of records,power tools used to maintain the home or on the job,good mounted snow tires-which will be needed again in a few more weeks.There are almost as many Harley Davidsons in the classified section of some daily papers as there are Chevys.
There is a link above that details the thoughts of some of the endowment managers at major universities.They are thinking that inflation is a serious threat and moving into commodities in a big way.
Real estate and many stocks may continue to deflate but sooner or later the funny money will make it to the cash register,and there are either real or impending shortages of just about every natural resource I can think of,in relation to long term historical prices.
If you have trouble seeing how purchasing power can be restored to the people without jobs,just imagine a computer operator somewhere in Washington being told to send everybody five thousand bucks worth of legal paper tender that must be spent in six months and cannot be saved ir invested.You can also imagine the consequences as tInder has another meaning relating to fire.
Once the economy turns around(if it does) the incentive to continue to inflate will be simply overwhelming-tptb will be afraid not to ,for fear of derailing the continueing recovery.This process is exactly the same ,writ large, as an individual running himself into debt to maintain his lifestyle-except that when he individual can no longer borrow the game is up.The govt can print when it can't borrow and over the long run the "printed debt" is covered by the loss of purchasing power of ALL THE MONEY in existence as prices rise.
Then there is the little problem of the federel debt/boomers welfare checks aka social security/medicare to be considered.The only way the checks can be made good from month to month is to inflate the currency from year to year once the rest of the world cuts off our credit.
Then there is the fact to be considered that the boomers have not yet really even started to cash out thier retirement portfolios.Who will buy all that stock that needs to be converted into real CASH that can be spent at doctors offices,supermarkets,and restaurants?
We are in for some nasty times and probably in for another world war or something comparable before too much longer.
For those who wish to quibble concerning the technical versus the day to day definition of inflation I have just one question.As far as the outcome is concerned ,does it matter?
Or when the City Council cuts their piddly expense allowance to keep the swimming pool open and then turn around and approve a $20,000,000 Senior Center and one Councilman claims that the economy will begin to turn around in December.
George Carlin is sooooo right, "People Suck."
I read somewhere that the definition of a depression is a period of GDP of NEGATIVE %10. Was it one quarter of negative 10 percent growth? I can't remember if it was one quarter or one month.
Just a reminder that when a bank finally writes-off credit card losses, it shows up in the outstanding credit report.
For all we know, banks wrote off 30 billion dollars in July and the remaining consumers increased their credit balances.
Those outstanding credit reports don't break out how much is a true paydown of debt and how much is bank write-offs, but my guess is that it's mostly bank write offs that is making the numbers go down each month.
Either way it's deflationary, but a necessary improvement long term.
I don't know how things work in the U.S. but here in Germany , if you have a credit card with a $10,000 limit the bank reports that as $10,000 debt. It does not matter if you owe zero, or $5,000, it still counts as $10,000 for accounting purposes.
Now if the bank reduces your credit limit to $2,000, even if you had a balance of zero, the bank would now report $8,000 less debt.
So, how much of the debt pay off is really just lowered credit limits?
The government's - and for that matter most others - leading economic indicators are so far decoupled from the - I hate this term - real economy that it's absurd.
All CNBSers see is the market indices and fail to acknowledge that it is mostly low volume - between various computers, algos, etc. While KD does an excellent job with "numbers" this kind of stuff is best read about on ZeroHedge - IMHO - and not this is not a shameless plug.
Perhaps related there is this:
Priceless: How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession
Pete
As I explained in a post in yesterday's DB, they all use a fundamentally flawed model, so of course they all get it wrong. It is just like Ptolemy's model of the solar system. Anyone who dares suggest that it is wrong and that the "heretical" Copernican model works better gets "excommunicated".
Non-OPEC production is in decline. Non-OPEC C+C production reached a monthly peak in December 2003 and a yearly peak in 2004. Since its peak non-OPEC C+C production has dropped 1,378,000 barrels per day or 3.23 percent or about .6 percent per year. During the last two years this decline rate has increased but only slightly. The decline rate has been slowed by Russia slightly increasing production this year. They are still below their peak of 2007 however and reports out of Russia indicate that Russia’s decline rate will increase next year. If this happens then the non-OPEC decline rate will jump to between 1.5 and 2 percent next year.
Last year was an anomaly. Two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico dropped US production to under 5 million barrels per day and a sour gas leak in Azerbaijan in August shut down about 40% of their production for about four months. These problems, and a few more, caused non-OPEC production to take a nose dive last year. This year non-OPEC production is up slightly from last year. But the downtrend continues this year as we are currently well below 2007 and will finish the year even lower.
The EIA lists world production for 37 individual nations and lumps all the other smaller nations under one more titled “Other” Last year, of these 38 listings, ten nations made new highs. Six of them were OPEC and four were non-OPEC. Last year, because of the extremely high prices, every nation was producing flat out. So we can safely say that all but ten nations has already peaked and half of OPEC peaked prior to 2008. How many of those other six nations peaked last year we can only speculate. This year, only three nations have made new peaks, all of them of course, are non-OPEC.
I am of the opinion that OPEC peaked last year though there is still some doubt about that. But there is absolutely no doubt that non-OPEC has peaked. This peak is being masked by two factors. One is the fact that the EIA does not have a separate category for “Non-OPEC”. To get the data one must subtract OPEC total from the World total. And the second reason is the fact that most everyone, including the IEA, puts emphasis on “Total Liquids”. Over the last few years there has been a slight yearly increase in the production of natural gas and therefore an increase in natural gas liquids. This increase has masked the decrease in non-OPEC crude oil.
Non-OPEC produces 58 percent of the world’s oil. Non-OPEC peaked five years ago. OPEC produces approximately 42 percent of the world’s oil. It is very likely that OPEC has peaked also but because of deliberate quota cuts this fact cannot be proven from the data. However I think that the non-OPEC decline rate will be so great next year that this can no longer be ignored despite any increase in NGLs.
One more point concerning yesterday’s EIA data. As I reported May C+C production was revised downward 470 thousand barrels per day. The major revision was Canada. Their May output was revised downward 295 kb/d to 2,374 kb/d. However their June production was up to 2,524 kb/d. Canada, so far, peaked in 2007 with annual production of 2,616 kb/d and their monthly peak was August 2007 at 2,795 kb/d. So if Canadian Oil Sands are going to save the world they need to ramp up production pretty fast.
Ron P.
I would add that ethanol production was also boosted over the last years in the US, causing a significant double count when measuring total liquids. This further masks the non-OPEC peak.
I just threw all the latest data up on a fresh spreadsheet, and here was my favorite nugget: not only looking at Non-OPEC, but looking at Non-OPEC supply without Russia, throughout this decade. Wow. Nice also to throw up the average annual oil price against all that data too.
Ron you can actually get the .pdf from EIA that comes out later in the month, known as the EIA Monthly Energy Review, after the IPM, which sometimes actually updates the IPM but more to your point, always breaks out the Non-OPEC category. FWIW, I use both--the IPM just out, and then I check to see if the MER updates the monthly IPM. Between times, I simply update the two columns from the IPM, OPEC and World, in google docs to track Non-OPEC supply--using the subtraction function.
More broadly, however, yes it's true that most people cannot discern between the all liquids and the crude oil categories. It's just too esoteric. This is not helped by the fact that many who go on TV and who understand the differences will use the all liquids category.
G
Hello Darwinian,
Thxs for the statistical update. It will be interesting to see how this progresses in the next 3 years. According to Jay's Thermo/Gene Collision Theory***: If US anarchy occurs before Jan. 1st, 2013==>Jay will be Proven as an OPTIMIST.
From 2013 to Dec. 31st, 2032==>Jay will be Proven PRECISELY ACCURATE.
Finally, if US anarchy finally occurs on/after Jan 1st, 2033==>Jay will be Proven as a PESSIMIST; too Doomerish in his Prediction.
It will be fascinating to see if the global elite are even interested in wholesale mitigation for all so that they can PROVE Jay's Prediction as FALSE on Jan. 1st, 2033.
Between now & 2033, Our Little Blue Marble will need a tremendous human effort to reduce the vastly elevated specie extinction rate, recycle virtually Everything [especially O-NPK], keep Climate Change from runaway, and guarantee that population will Decrease [rolling back the yeast from the 59th minute..].
Then, as explained by TAINTER in his keypost thread: these mitigation efforts CANNOT EVER STOP if we wish to avoid Global & US anarchy. A very tall order for us Stupid Fire-Monkeys...[EDIT2:...if we also wish to avoid Archdruid Greer's Grinding Catabolic Collapse.]
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
EDIT: OOPS, almost forgot the link for any TOD newbies.
*** http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
-----------------------
THERMO/GENE COLLISION: On Human Nature, Energy, and Collapse
-----------------------
Another thought: Interestingly, most people think Jay's reference Therm/Gene fast-crash scenario is the most doomerish of all the other scenarios out there. IMO, it really isn't because as Jay states: 'they are mentally trapped in obsolete belief systems'. I would suggest that they haven't studied Dieoff.org in sufficient detail, for Jay's 'Requiem Scenario' may be even worse that Greer's Catabolic Grind.
http://dieoff.org/page181.htm
---------------
REQUIEM by Jay Hanson, 02/20/98
[Last Paragraphs]:..We will see feral children mining the dumps for plastic to burn (Pampers) so they can heat the hovels they are forced to live in. The strongest kids will set traps for fresh meat -- rats -- while the weaker kids will eat anything they can cram into their mouths (old shoes, styrofoam peanuts, newspaper soup). Pandemics will sweep the world, punctuated every so often by explosions as abandoned and rotting nuclear facilities blow up. Leaking dumps and tanks will spew PCBs and radioactive hazwaste into the feral food chain spawning surprising new shapes for young mothers to enjoy nursing.[55] Toxic chemical fires, blowing garbage and trash, genetic mutations, filthy water, cannibalism ...
As the Easter Islanders say: "The flesh of your mother sticks between my teeth".[56]
The situation will be especially serious for a short time because the population will keep rising due to the lags inherent in the age structure and social adjustment. Then mercifully, the population will drop sharply as the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.[57] Trapped in obsolete belief systems, Americans won't even know why their society disintegrated.
A hundred thousand years from now -- once the background radiation levels drop below lethality -- a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election. He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.
How could it be otherwise?
-------------------------
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5765#comment-538329
As noted in this post on the OPEC thread, I have wondered for a while if the decline in demand might be obscuring an accelerating rate of decline in worldwide production, since we see several examples of slow initial (frequently three year) declines, followed by more rapid declines.
I thought Leanan would list this link up top but since she hasn’t I will take the liberty of posting it.
Peter Foster: Oil and the minds of men
Any time the cornucopians utter the name of their patron saint, Saint Simon, you can rest assured that what follows next will be a load of crap.
This is halirous, a must read.
Ron P.
I posted it in Saturday's DrumBeat. It resulted in some humorous discussion.
Sorry I missed that. If the piece had an earlier date I would have checked back Drumbeats for the post. But since the post stated; Posted: September 08, 2009, 4:48 PM I assumed it had not been posted before. This National Post here must be a repost.
Ron P.
La-la Land or what! The anti-PO spin machine has been cranked up these last few weeks. I think they are running scared. This author shows such a lack of understanding of the basics of the subject it is frightening.
Show me one, just ONE, well researched, well argued essay refuting PO. None have any credence as they are only emotional, not scientific.
I think the anti-PO articles are just a side show - a small part of the overall theme of "the bad times are over, everything's looking up". Some really believe it, some think that if they can get everyone else to believe it it will come true, some are buying time. And some know that if the majority can be made to believe that everything is OK and the sky is the limit, then that creates more suckers and more opportunities for their schemes.
Having bad news such as PO out there creating doubts is bad, so the usual suspects are trotted out to plug that hole. Bad news, in all areas, must be suppressed in order to create the requisite optimism. Reality is irrelevant. Until it's not.
The orders are being called in to reupholster the deck chairs, and trim some of the legs so they look nice and level. I hope they can also float.
I'd like to know if there is any data backing up his statement. We're burning about 26 Gb of C+C per year. So have we found 52 Gb of C+C over the last two years for example?
The man is professor emeritus of international energy studies at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. He can't be wrong. Or, the autor misses what his words mean: the industry finds more then the INDUSTRY uses.
So the industry is sustainable -- it easily finds more oil than it requires for exploration and extraction.
Got the sarcasm in your comment, Paulus. Let me add the serious: a lot of professor's are 'blinded by science'.
Blinded by The Light...
Foreigner's "Blinded by Science": I can't believe we're here for no reason
The "argument from personal incredulity."
"I can't believe" global petroleum production is peaking, therefore it must not be true and I don't need to change my energy consumption habits.
"I can't believe" that human extinction within any timeframe relevant to me or my descendants is a possibility, therefore it must not be true...
The universe seems to be utterly ateleological but "I can't believe we're here for no reason" other than what we invent for ourselves, so it must not be true.
If you simply can't believe it it must not be true.
I've yet to meet a person or see a poster on this forum or elsewhere who doesn't think this way on at least some level.
I posted a part of the songtext but it is for some strange reason removed. Off topic ? No.
Because it is a songtext ? No. Drumbeat 7 september has a comment from someone (Totoneila) with 3 songtext (and less to the point).
What happened ?
You can't post that much of a song. It's a copyright issue.
You can post a few lines, and link to the rest. (Totoneila posted only a few lines from each song.)
If the song is so old it is no longer covered by copyright, then you can post the whole thing. Anything over 100 years old is probably okay.
Leanan, I found the text on an internet site. They must have the copyright then or take the risk, probably the latter. I don't think 'Foreigner' will have problems with it. They will rather feel good to have reached a scientific internetsite with their 'blinded by science' if they get to know it (very small chance).
Usually the latter, though some bands post their lyrics on their own web sites.
That is not for you or me to decide.
Sometimes even the music notes of songs to play with keyboard (piano) or guitar. For free or available after paying a small amount and also on general music websites. This is a very nice possibility, also for classical music.
Of course. It was just a thought. In practice, mostly problems can arise if others copy the music (melody) without having permission.
My favorite part:
No, it means they should be announcing a similar find every two weeks.
I strongly suspect that these announcements are being made in the belief that investors/speculators will feel more comfortable putting their money into petroleum projects if the likelihood of finding a really big field is still pretty good. If they did their homework they probably know that PO is for real.
To put this article in perspective, pretty well every article in that stupid rag is just as ill-informed or purposely misleading. The National Post is a good example of why newspapers are finished, and the big network news (the coverers of Michael Jackson's funeral, etc.) are next. The people are getting their useful info from the Net and cable. Amusingly, Glenn Beck (whose name is mud around here) has been all over oil depletion for the longest time and everything he says on the topic is as accurate as the MSM gets on the topic. If only he was a lefty-then he could be our hero.
Any links to that Glenn Beck info? Would like to see what he has been saying.
Like many, he is all over Youtube. Just watched an old Sam Kinison standup special on Youtube the other day-still strong comedy.
Brian, I think he meant What's Beck saying about Peak Oil?
This from Glenn Beck: 'The Future of Energy' according to Boone Pickens
Ron P.
Beck is the worst this country has to offer.
Uh, that's the oil company guy who's spouting the lies, not Beck. Can you source the snippet?
Go back and read the T. Boone transcript. Where else on the MSM have you seen it stated like this, and way back in May 2008 at that?
Once you give him some breaks for showmanship and audience-courting, what's so upsetting about Glenn?
Yeah, and right after that interview he spouted out about drilling and vast sums of oil that were still available in the US. If you want to read the transcript, just a pick a sentence, wrap double quotes around it, and google it.
Here is the lobby group he started (first two oaths to join listed):
Beck 9-12 project
So the problem you really have with Glenn is that he's a Christian who thinks America is still a good place? Are you serious?
The other points seem ever more noble. Who wouldn't want to live amongst people like this?
3. I must always try to be a more honest person than I was yesterday.
4. The family is sacred. My spouse and I are the ultimate authority, not the government.
5. If you break the law you pay the penalty. Justice is blind and no one is above it.
6. I have a right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, but there is no guarantee of equal results.
7. I work hard for what I have and I will share it with who I want to. Government cannot force me to be charitable.
8. It is not un-American for me to disagree with authority or to share my personal opinion.
9. The government works for me. I do not answer to them, they answer to me.
The 12 Values
* Honesty
* Reverence
* Hope
* Thrift
* Humility
* Charity
* Sincerity
* Moderation
* Hard Work
* Courage
* Personal Responsibility
* Gratitude
The Hoffmeister clip was definitely an industry snow-job piece. I especially liked the quote from Obama:
"SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If I am president, I will immediately direct the full resources of the federal government and the full energy of the private sector working with state and local governments to achieve a single overarching goal. In ten years, we will eliminate the need for oil from the entire Middle East and Venezuela. In ten years time. Ten years is how long it`s going to take."
1. America was a paradise that's been raped by apes that are neither good or bad, who have had a government imposed upon them that serves the interests of continent raping power elites, not of the common apes themselves.
2. No one knows whether or not the supernatural exists so one must be mad to have an unknown and unknowable hypothetical entity at the center of their lives.
3. I must currently be a liar if I must always strive to be more honest tomorrow than I am today.
4. The family is a social & reproductive unit and the ultimate authority is reality as discerned via hypothesis testing & the scientific method.
5. If you break the law you must pay the penalty only if you get caught and can't afford a good attorney.
6. I only have "rights" to the extent that I can enforce them. Superior force can always take away the "rights" of the weaker.
7. I am greedy and will only share what I have with the less fortunate if forced to do so, and I will bitterly resent being forced to share by superior force.
8. Since the government can extort money from me against my will (taxes), arrest, disappear or kill me, or confiscate my property, I am basically the slave of government. I answer to governmental authority, it does not answer to me regardless of the sham illusion of "democracy" elections are intended to portray.
These are the realities. Bogus nobility only fools the gullible. Get real.
Are realities, like beauty, in the eye of the beholder? Is there any real nobility or is it all bogus and all who believe in any sort of nobility are fools?
Perhaps so but if there is, it certainly isn't represented by a list of lame platitudes trumpeted from a website by someone with an agenda to sell.
"reality is for people who can't handle drugs"
the fabulous furry freak brothers
i think
Man, I bet you're fun at parties!
If I were looking for an environment to raise my children, would I want to have them hopeful that Beck's world could be, or fearful that DD world probably is?
That's the real problem here -- it isn't whether a particular data point is accurate or now, but whether a future worldview is compelling enough to get people to align with it. Doomerism is lacking in marketing glimmer, I'd say.
The truth is almost always somwhere in the middle-Beck's list of values must be interpreted and applied as guides to values in respect to day to day reality.
I don't personally listen to him but he is not the cretin some make him out to be,and he is on to one thing at least.We live in a dangerous world and assuming that we can all live together in it peacefully just because we would like to is foolish in the extreme.
If I had a small kid I would not object to his being in a Sunday school class run by some fundamentalists I know because he would be taught some very good (imo ) values there such as brotherhood,family ,humility, sharing,thrift,responsibility,community-I know because I have been in such classes myself.
(Of course there are others who teach mostly intolerance,ignorance,etc,but has this not always and forever been the way of the world?)
Now Jesus Christ may not have even been "for real" but your kids are going to look up to SOMEBODY-some rapper perhaps who refers to women as whores and property? Or some football coach who will for the sake of a winning season burn up the best hours of his youth learning a worthless (mostly-I do recognize that sports teaches teamwork ,builds confidence etc) game that can at best be pursued to some purpose beyond impressing cheerleaders by perhaps only one out of a thousand young men?
I would also make sure he understands math,chemistry,geology,and Darwin as he gets old enough to absorb these lessons of reality as opposed to the lessons of value that he is going to learn SOMEWHERE-perhaps in an alley or the school bathrooms or at a bar if not at church or in the Boy Scouts or some similar organization.
NATURE WILL NOT TOLERATE A VACUUM.
By failing to support a given value system perhaps not perfect in your view you may well be allowing an inferior one to flourish.
Come now, taking this entertainer seriously diminishes the conyent of this blog.
Yes, Glenn Blech has acknowledged peak oil in so many words. He will also un-acknowledge it at some point in the future if it will gain him some audience. Did you see the video where he was practicing crying for a video shoot? A blossoming cult leader. That is all you need to know.
OFM,
You seem to present the stark choice of learning values through Christian Sunday School and quasi-religious organizations such as BSA or else being a self-centered sociopath or something.
Holy false dichotomy, Batman!
Yes, I think children learn values from people they know - usually their parents - more than from rappers or religion. Look at how many supposedly religious people end up in trouble. I was raised without any religion, and I never missed it.
Moonwatcher,
Not at all.They are going to learn something and i judge that what they learn at Snday school will do them no harm and will more than likely contribute to the formation of values generally considered good ones across the board,such as honesty,humility,courtesy,charity,brotherhood,etc.
Perhaps you failed to notice that I would also be teaching -as they get to the ages appropriate-biology,geology,maths chemistry physics,etc.I have no doubt that the ones capable of thinking will become DARWINISTS ,as I did-but I learned science at school rather than at home.
The ones that can't think are probably better off believing in heaven and hell-such beliefs keep at least a few of them out of trouble.
Such a thinking kid will realize some fundamental truths early enough in life to make good use of them-one such truth being that plenty of perfectly ordinary people believe some rather un likely things-and how to function in the presence of such people.
As someone else here put it a while back,kids aren't RAISED in all too many cases.They just HAPPEN and my personal experience is that most parents are lousy teachers,Teaching is work,it takes time and effort.Dumping a kid in front of a tv or enrolling him in a public school is not likely to teach him much in terms of desirable values.
Given Sunday school or whatever comes at random I will bet on sunday school.
This calls for a book ,not my two finger typing on a blog.
My parents let me attend fundamentalist Sunday school classes. Even when I was four or five years old, they trusted me to think about what I was told, and make up my own mind.
Me because they reek of hypocrisy.
Good going darwinsdog. Show them for what they are.
Paleocon wrote:
Who wouldn't want to live amongst people like this?
I wouldn't, and I don't.
There are several points in that list that I find objectionable.
Alan
goghgoner
Yup,
1) I agree: America is good. Much better to be born an American than a whole bunch of other countries.
2) Also, I agree. He is the Center of my Life; maybe not yours..
What exactly is your point? Can a man not have an opinion about his country and be vocal in the evangelism of his faith? Can this same man not share his opinion and faith with those who come freely to hear such? Does the First Amendment not apply in your universe? Exactly what axe are you grinding?
are you certain god is a "he". maybe a "she" or an igauna. if there is a god, and i dont think so, it is probably beyond any human comprehension. you might be looking at it not even recognize it!! hey what was that??? .... just the wind...
It is up to you-if you prefer God as a 50 foot tall Raquel Welch out of One Million BC who can blame you.
Now there is an image. Have never seen the movie, only the poster.
God is a personal thing. Other's see what they see in their mind's eye. Even Fellow Christians will have different images in their heads, when thinking about God.
I am a Christian, but I also believe in peak oil, as well as a lot of other peaks happening around the same time period.
The world is not a nice place, living in it is harder than most americans have been exposed too. Even Our Homeless have it good compared to poor in other nations. Almost 7 billion people on this Rocky Spheroid in Space and soon a whole lot less.
This seems like a good place to insert this:
http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
Paraphrasing the Buddha, "There's no ground under your feet, and there never was. Get over it."
Those 1,2 statements by Beck are too open-ended and vague to be useful; they only create flamewar-heat, not enlightenment-bright, white light.
Perhaps all can agree when:
1. North America is Good when we have less eco-impact per capita than a tribe in Borneo, the Kalahari, or the Serengenti per capita. North America will be globally considered Great when we actually restore the damage we have done to our Little Blue Marble. I have strong doubts that this is even possible.
2. Appeals to any Diety have done nothing to save extinctions, much less reduce the extinction rate. Perhaps only Earthmarines worshipping Mother Nature [Little Blue Marble] as omnipotent & omniscient will give Earth [and thereby us] a chance.
Consider the appeal to diety of the sniper in "Saving Private Ryan" but altered to a fervent Earthmarine 'planetary patriotism' belief:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MnCqWdgeqc
58 seconds
The last words of Tom Hanks in "Saving Private Ryan" was EARN IT. My gut-feel is that Mother Nature will make us EARN IT AT ALL COSTS if we decide to rise to her appeal. Anything less will be futile.
HAcland,
I am not surprised that you agree with the first two commandments of Beck's lobby group -- heck, a good portion of America would.
Basically, like Bob implied, the USA is not sustainable -- that is not good. Many may be living okay now but the future is going to be pretty difficult.
The God talk is just to suck you in.
Now, I don't think you will take to the next step that Beck's backers are hoping -- that you donate time and money stopping the regulation of capitalism and taxes on the rich. Fascism is what my ax would be whacking at but it's too late and I don't really care.
Tell it to the rocks. Then ask them if they care what you want, Glenn.
Glen Beck manytimes rambles incoherently. Even trying to read this passage makes my head hurt. He should calm down, collect his thoughts, and work on making his points in a more structured, wlell-supported manner.
That's not his schtick. He doesn't believe half the things he says. As others have said, he's a showman.
He tells a story about how he said on one show that he loves pollution and hates clean water. His kid got really upset. He reassured her, and explained that no, he doesn't love pollution, it's just something he says on TV. He seems to find this story very funny. So I think we can assume he doesn't expect anyone older than a toddler to really believe what he says.
I think sometimes people don't get sarcasm and taking things to ridiculous extremes to make a point.
I don't think "sarcasm" is the right word to describe what he does.
I think his schtick is probably more accurately described as "trolling." He says outrageous things just to get a reaction.
Leanan: What exactly are the guidelines re posts on this site? I realize it isn't my business, but I was surprised that you didn't remove the posts by Hightrekker alleging murder and rape.
I would be the last one to imply that Mr. Beck might have done such things as people are talking about, but he hasn't denied it and has tried to shut down the discussion. http://www.GB1990.com/
It was all made up. Nobody seriously believes he did such things and it is a reference to an old roast joke about somebody else entirely.
At least I hope nobody believes them, but the birthers and deathers show that people will believe just about anything, especially if the accusations are made in the form of a leading question about somebody that they are predisposed to dislike. They will fill in all the details necessary to make a consistent story on their own.
Here is a great Glenn Beck video link with Ron Paul and a Soros clip inserted. Soros & Ron Paul: Collapse (Video, H/T TheComingDepression)
You will love this one Brian because he hints it is (something like) a conspiracy theory. Could be except the data is publically available, it is just that no one is talking about it. And, it could very well be that MSM is deliberately keeping mum in order not to panic the public, sending the stock market into a dive.
An afterthought. When a far right winger like Glenn Beck comes over to the dark side it may be time to panic.
Ron P.
I've listened to Glenn for years. He's got a 'doomerish' personality and a story-teller's gift, and that perspective is what bumped him from radio to TV last year as things got bad.
People say he's a "conservative" with the voice slur used for Bush and other neo-cons, but he's really not that sort. He's got some blind spots but overall he'd fit in fine here -- he's not stupid, he's willing to learn, and he questions those in power.
IMO what many miss is the neocons such as Cheney and Bush are far closer in mentality to the big government "liberals" such as Pelosi and Obama then they are to the likes of Ron Paul (or Glenn Beck). Both big government groups (neocon/Rethug or big guv Dem) only differ in where they would like to spend the taxpayers' money-fiscally both are an absolute menace to the USA.
Glenn Beck!! Good grief, the IQ of this site just dropped a few dozen points. Here are a few other gems from Glenn Beck:
Glenn Beck, climate scientist: cool temperatures this year in New York prove global warming wrong
Beck calls Obama's stay-in-school speech to students "indoctrination" Beck adds: "Stand guard America. Your republic is under attack."
Glenn Beck screaming at a caller to his radio show re health care(after he [Beck] claimed, among other things, that Canada has a lottery to see who gets health care this month): “Get off my phone!!!!”
Nahhh, I think you are over reacting. True Glenn Beck is an idiot, a screaming maniac, a conspiracy theory nut case who thinks public art work displayed around New York is a communist conspiracy to indoctrinate communist propaganda into the unsuspecting public. But as the saying goes even a blind squirrel can find an acorn every once in awhile. Beck understands that the skyrocketing public and private debt will likely be the downfall of America.
But is it so shocking that an idiot figured that out?
Ron P.
Remember Beck is a showman and entertainer first, and a source of information second, just like every other person on TV.
I think if you stopped with "Beck understands the public" you'd be closer to the truth. He knows his audience and for right and wrong he's shifting opinions while making money at it. Cramer does the same thing. So does NPR, only with a quiet, professorial English accent for proffered truth and a patronizing disdain for dissent.
Beck has some blind spots and some errors, but he represents a lot (possibly a majority) of America, and those are the people who need to be convinced of energy realities.
As for art, I've been disgusted myself when Boulder decided to hang penises art in the library. The world could do without it.
Paleo, Do you live in Boulder?
If not, why would you care what us Boulderites do with our municipal library, paid for with local tax dollars?
If so, why don't you get involved in local politics to change it?
As a Boulder taxpayer, I am much happier with penis art in the library than I am with Glenn Beck's lies about global warming, health care, and pretty much anything else he discusses.
Despite his professed principles, any fact checker could find many factually incorrect statements ("lies" if you like) in any Beck show.
Beck clearly does not care about the truth, only about demagogoury and inciting incoherent, ignorant anger. Not all nations have their political environment degraded with unethical distortions such as Beck's, and I fear for the future of the US if his rantings come to be considered acceptable discourse.
Not anymore. It's a beautiful place, and there is a lot there I like, but the politics certainly didn't fit me, nor the hypocrisy. It's hard living in a city that professes equality but is at least 95% white, and that denigrates vehicles but has a commuter workforce from Denver who can't afford to live there, and which has a zero-growth goal for people but not for businesses, and that refuses to have a Walmart but can't keep a mall in business. I'm happier a few hundred miles further East and South, where even the libs are fairly conservative.
In general, though, I think more liberal financial models fit better for local gov't than fed gov't -- I'm a tax-and-spend close-to-home believer. Most of my complaints about gov't are that the Fed Gov't is big, and getting bigger. States and munis are a lot easier to keep in check.
As for Beck, I'm kinda sorry I even stepped in. I watch him on TV or hear him on the radio sometimes, just like any other entertainer, but he's not like a personal idol or anything.
I would say that the anger he represents is real, and it's quite coherent. Beck's general views represent a far larger bulk of America than some here want to believe. He isn't popular because he's accurate or not, but because he can play off the anger and unease of the populace.
Loud rantings of a media fiture are no more dangerous, and certainly less insidious, than purposeful silence and willful neglect on the part of politicians in the face of impending collapse. It's past due for people to get angry and hold Congress accountable.
From the majority of the comments, it appears that many are looking for a leader or hero rather than focusing on the necessity of getting the oil depletion info to the public. If Rush Limbaugh starts hammering away on oil depletion starting tomorrow, pretty soon the awareness will rise among the public-just by stating that fact provokes responses labelling one as a Rush supporter.
Beck is an idiot.
No, all the idiots have finally figured that out. Too bad they couldn't have figured it out earlier, when we were starting all these unnecessary wars. (Recall that Beck held a series of rallies for the Iraq war prior to the invasion. Ron Paul, a true libertarian, with whom I agree on some issues, opposed it.)
lilith
No wonder the guy has high ratings-all I did is mention that he talks about oil depletion openly and it was like unleashing a torrent of controversy-one poster (Trekker) spins it into racism/sexism/religious bigotry. Beck isn't being nominated for the Supreme Court-he has a FOX show.
OK, so you don't like Beck's style-here Camille Paglia accurately sums up the current situation for you http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2009/09/09/healthcare/
Style? I'm talking content - e.g. ignorance on climate change, claiming in Canada they have a lottery to determine who gets health care this month, claiming a speech to school children by a president is "indoctrination."
And don't get me started on Camile Paglia. :) I could give a GREAT rant on her, but that's way OT.
lilith
Re the kids, I have said before that I think George Bush Jr. started this ball rolling (open contempt by a large % of the public for the White House and Washington in general) and now it isn't that easy to put the genie back in the bottle. Beck and others are tapping into this, but the raw material is already there. IMO rolling over for Wall Street dealt a major blow to Obama's credibility and it doesn't look like he will regain it.
I really enjoyed Obama's speech tonight, especially where about 3 times it was discussed that eliminating waste and graft in Medicaid/care would pay for much of the plan. Why is it that they can eliminate the graft and waste to fund a new plan, but not to save money with the old plan?
I'm not against significant changes in the system, but some of the arguments seem to center on shaky logic indeed!
Insurance companies raking in obscene profits to 'deliver health care' = shaky logic.
Eliminating AfPack and Iraq war funding and cutting the DoD budget appropriately would easily pay for universal health coverage.
Wait, we are America the Great, U.S.A. #1, so that's why we can't figure out how to do what nearly every country in Europe, Canada, Japan, and other countries have figured out....deliver Universal health care, with higher life expectancies and lower infant mortality etc.
Why is it that they can eliminate the graft and waste to fund a new plan, but not to save money with the old plan?
Because Republicans had six years of control of the White House & Congress and did nothing.
Rs will not do anything, ever. Ds will only do it if there are substantial social improvements as part of the deal.
See the impact of corporate control of our gov't. Ds will buck it if the motivation is strong enough, Rs suck at the teat of corporate PACs.
Alan
or pretty much as Nader described it..
'The difference between the Republicans and Democrats is the speed at which their knees hit the carpet when a corporate lobbyist enters the room..'
(While I do agree that many Democrats do believe in the societal changes possible at the policy level.. just too many of them are now hamstrung by pursestrings to make any effective noise about it.
Bless and Preserve the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Jimmy Carter.
They look like 'wimps', and yet they are out there telling the truth.. and Truthtelling is real strength.
Alan -- so true about the Republirats sitting on the hands and doing nothing about gov't waste. But you indvertently (I'm sure) failed to mention the times when the Demorats had complete control and did nothing. I do appreciate the differences between the two parties. But it's the similarities that truly erk me.
I know how you N.O. Democrats feel...I was one too when I lived there. Same reason I'm a registered R in Texas: only the primaries make a difference. Few reasons to vote in the general elections on either side of the Sabine River.
For over 20 years we had open primaries in Louisiana; Ds, Rs, Greens, Is and if no one got 50%, top two in the runoff (always R vs. D). Just abolished.
I have lost all hope for Rs pulling away from corporate control. As Nadar observed, Ds fall a little slower to the carpet and will, if the issue is big enough, actually vote against the hand that feeds them.
I see no hope for just a "reduce fraud & waste bill" by either Rs or Ds. Rs will not vote against corporations, not big enough for Ds to go against corporate $$.
IMHO, Ds are likely to rise to reduce fraud & waste as a side show to universal health care.
Best Hopes for Reform,
Alan
Well, I think most insurance isn't insurance, it's a payment plan. When everybody takes their kids to the doc for shots and a checkup, and pays $20 in copy an $500-$1000 a month for "insurance" which pays the rest, it's not really insurance.
Remember when you could get Major Medical without the HMO-style total coverage? For anybody actually paying for their insurance that would seem more efficient as it eliminates a middle-man (or two, or 10). Of course that doesn't help the poor who have no money for care at all.
As for waste, it's not all just big corps. They say Medicaid fraud is as much as waste, and a lot of that is little guys with little crooked schemes. A lot more is cost-shifting by another name though -- overcharging on goods and equipment to make up for payment limits on services. If you squash the graft there it'll probably just come back as higher prices and fewer services.
I think the way to do it is to have the gov't pay in so many $$ to a healthcare spending account attached to your IRS account. If you spend less than the basis number, you get the rest back as a credit at the end of the year -- a wellness bonus! If you run over, it accrues a debit to your IRS account, and at tax time your income determines how much you pay of that (on an actuarially-adjusted insurance scale for major events), and some carries over for a handful of years. If you choose to have private insurance, great, just pocket the stipend. If you're a wealthy hypochondriac, great, you get to pay for it all. If you're a middle-class guy who gets hit hard with an early heart-attack, you pay some for a few years and then it goes away. If you're poor, you're still covered, but if you win the lotto next year you're paying most of it back.
As for R's and D's, I feel like D's are more likely to dip into my pocket and take what they feel is right. R's are more likely to look the other way when corp's dip into my pockets for what they can get. Neither really much cares about keeping it in my pocket -- that's where Libertarian's have an advantage.
I see it pretty much the same as you Alan. In the end I feel like the R's & D's have conspired to play us. Not that there might not be a few sincere types on both sides of the fence. But the system is in absolute control IMO and no one can change it...at least not from the top. And as long as the bottom gets inflamed with all the BS thrown at them change from this end won't happen either IMO.
I would love to hear it lil. I read her "Sexual Personae" and loved her direct ("I say..") style. Would really like to hear your take on her.
EDIT: If you'll give me your rant on Paglia I'll give you mine on Joan Roughgarden. :)
Camille Paglia?
Please, one needs to get out of the shallow end of the pool occasionally.
Let's stick to something we know a little about---
Doom Bunker - Glenn Beck's "War Room" | March 4th | ColbertNation.com
I took your advice Ron and read it despite some misgivings. You are a dirty LIAR! It is definately a "Don't waste your time" article. It is interesting how he goes on and on saying the Peak Oilsters are wrong and not once discusses production rates. Which, of course, is the basis for PO. Taking BP at its word Tiber may be a world class discovery. And there will be others down the road. As long as the PO denialists stick with "how big the new field is" punch line and completely ignore delivery rates I doubt the general public will ever grasp the situation. Even when stocks next run low and prices jump they'll still see it as a result of other factors. As long as the public remains ignorant there's no reason to expect our politicians to push distasteful realities at them IMO.
You are dead wrong Rockman, though I simply think you are mistaken, not a dirty LIAR. The article is worth reading for a number of reasons. First it is good for a great laugh. But far more important than that it is an insight into the mind of the typical peak oil denier. This is very important! Unless you truly understand why these people see the world the way they do, you will never understand why they say the things they do.
Foster sees everything through the eyes of an economist, not a geologist. And as Kenneth Bolding says: "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever on a finite planet is either a madman or an economist". That may sound like hyperbole to a lot of people but if you read this article by Peter Foster you will realize that economists really think like that.
No Rockman, this article is not a waste of time because unless you understand why peak oil deniers say the things they do then you do not understand the issue at all. And therefore you do not understand why peak oil is such a hard sell and you do not understand why MSM treats the subject the way they do.
Exactly! And if you read the article you will have a better insight into why the public remains ignorant. You will have a better clue as to what kind of argument might work best against this type of argument. Again, this article is well worth reading because of what it will do to your education into the mind of the cornucopian. Hell I read Julian Simon's "The Ultimate Resource" cover to cover and found after reading it I understood such people far better than before. You could at least read such a short article as this without calling those who recommend it a dirty LIAR.
Ron P.
I could be wrong Ron, but I think he was joking with you about the liar part.
Same I was thinking
Yes and I could be wrong also but I really didn't sense sarcasm. He seemed dead serious. It is really hard to tell. But I think my response was safe either way.
Ron P.
"... an insight into the mind of the typical peak oil denier":
Invest, invest, invest, there's still plenty of Ghawars to be found! Step right up and hand me your dough....
I still think this sudden rash of "deniers" is all about getting the uneducated to invest their money. The "deniers" need to shoot down PO theory only because it makes the uneducated think that maybe there's less of a potential return on investment.
I do agree with you Ron. It's just that you so seldom give me any reason to dump on you that I took a cheap shot there. I hope you realize I was just teasing you...my regrets if you didn't. Guess you couldn't see me smiling as I typed.
I know all too well why the public remains ignorant. It's all I can do to not slap some up side their head. A while back a friend listened to one of these elite thinkers mouthing off about the damn oil companies. He was about to respond with a not-so-friendly comment when the fellow said something that diffused the situation. He said "We don't need them to drill no more oil wells. They need to drill more gasoline wells....that's what we're short of". And his vote, sir, counts just as much as yours and mine. Sorry....it's going to be very difficult for anyone to renew my faith in the American people.
=Ron,
Spot on there (as usual). It's also a matter of intellectual honesty to read what the 'other side' has to say -- even depletionists err occasionally, if only on 'minor' empirical points such as the peak oil deadline year.
Sometimes the optimists get something right, so to say. Yet I'm still amazed at how otherwise quite intelligent people 'just don't get it' when it comes to understanding the exponential function. It's not as though you have to be a nobelist to work it out.
The fact that peak oil theory is no longer being simply ignored is also a positive sign in itself. Until recently, the MSM simply adopted the 'dynamic silence' approach, i.e. give the peak oil 'cranks' the silent treatment and the problem will eventually evaporate. Those days, at least, are over.
Hey Ron, in that vain I have started to listen to Alex Jones, not something you want to get exposed to for very long. I thought some of my Ideas about world Domination in some of My Sci-Fi short stories and novels was rather cool, then I hear this guy telling me I can't think about things like that or I'll go to hell.
I see to many hints that these guys are just stirring the water in with the dirt to hope that they can stay off things getting fixed for the better.
Thanks for the Post.
Charles E. Owens Jr.
Britain’s first dual fuel bus will cut emissions by half
There was some discussion on biomethane a coule of days ago, thought this was relevent.
Dubai opens first stations on first Metro line
Built in four years.
http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/9/Pages/08092009/09092009_062ff...
320 km Metro network planned by 2020.
I guess someone is preparing for post-Peak Oil.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Those interested in the phenomenon of fields like Tiber apparently showing oil far below the usual reported depth of the oil window might take an interest in this document: Geothermal Gradients and Subsurface Temperatures in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, by Joseph Forrest1, Ettore Marcucci and Paul Scott, #30048 (2007). Table 1 is the kicker, 300F temps are surmised to exist in the Walker Canyon zone as far down as 56k feet. Tiber is almost breaking all time records, too, as the Kola Superdeep Borehole "only" hit 40,219 ft/12,262m. What is the Deepest Hole Ever Drilled?
News from the Caribbean
Job losses soar - Up to 30,000 sent home since start of the economic crisis
Companies vie for LNG contracts - What is being pursued are arrangements and understandings - source
Gov't technocrats flay JPS over energy price - State advisers urge quick replacement of old generators
Trinidad boosts drilling as gas reserves drop
Global crisis hits Trinidad economy - First quarter GDP declines 3%
Alan from the islands
Hello Islandboy,
Thxs for the island update. I guess things are so bad now in Haiti that MSM reporters cannot find any 'magical' green shoots to write optimistically-biased-articles about.
According to those 'scholars' [heavily infused with techno-faith], like Peter Foster, "Oil and the minds of men": Even though Haiti is bereft of resources, the 'Minds of Haitian Men and Women' just need to be released to transform their country into a Techno-Paradise and Garden of Eden. No Tools, No Energy, No Elements Required, of course.
I would put more faith in Haitian Voodoo than their Techno Voodoo.
My most interesting read this summer:
The dark side of ‘automobilism’, 1900–30
Violence, war and the motor car
by Kurt Moeser
http://www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/uploads/docs/240238.pdf
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook is just out. I find it very interesting that they are now forecasting virtually no gain in Non-OPEC liquids. (Millions of barrels per day.)
Total non-OPEC liquids 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 49.8 50.01 49.66 50 50.19Too bad that they don't tell us how much of this is crude and how much is "other liquids". But in recent years "other liquids" have grown while non-OPEC crude has declined. This has been the only thing that has kept non-OPEC liquids on the plateau that you see here. Non-OPEC C+C shows a constant decline since 2004. They may actually be predicting a decline in non-OPEC crude. Are the folks at the EIA coming to their senses?
Looking at the full table, the only place they are predicting any significant gains is in Brazil, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. As I stated above these are the only three non-OPEC nations that have not yet peaked.
They are predicting a decline in North American production from 15.18 mb/d in 2009 to 15.09 mb/d in 2010. Mexico is the drag. They are showing slight gains in US and Canadian production.
Ron P.
Stonewalling Peak Oil:
An interview with Robert Hirsch.
http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1751
There's a lot of discussion on this in yesterday's DrumBeat.
Behind a paywall, but viewable through Google:
Mexico's Fading Oil Output Crimps Exports - Budget Shortfall Is Likely to Worsen; Major Field Plunges
And yet if memory serves correctly there was much discussion and prediction on TOD in 2005/2006 that Cantarell production would drop extremely quickly in the future, which is exactly what has happened. Something about gas injection and increasing current output at the expense of future production?!
This is a story that one needed to be paying attention to over 4 years time and why I worry that the predictions for a rapid decline of Gharwar, driven by water, might be right. Just because it hasn't happened in 2009 doesn't mean it won't happen in the future.
The author of this WSJ article, David Luhnow, has written extensively on Cantarell. Here is a link to an article from early 2007:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116984658739189365.html?mod=googlenews_w...
NC -- A quick explanation of the difference in drive mechanisms between Ghawar and Cantarell. Cantarell has the largest nitrogen injection plant in the world. The N is injected into the top of the reservoir and pushes the oil downhill towards the producing wells. It's this pressure maintenance which will allow a much higher recovery then would occur naturally. But as this N gas cap expands downhill it will eventually reach each producing well. This will cause each well to stop producing as the N production becomes excessive as it continues to push the oil further downhill. How quickly this will reduce total field production depends on where all the wells are located on this "hill". If a lot of the wells are near the top the field will show a very rapid decline. I don't have the details on well distribution but it sounds like this was the case given the recent rapid decline. The important fact to take away is that PEMEX has all these details in addition to monitoring wells that keep track of the N cap expansion. PEMEX knew the future decline potential long before it became obvious to the rest of us.
Ghawar is a water drive reservoir. The oil floats on top of the water column. As the oil is produced the water moves uphill towards the producers as it continues to push the oil out of the ground. This progression isn't as easy to predict as the N cap expansion. But as the water level approaches each well the percentage of water increases as the amount of oil decreases. Ghawar is more complicated in that it doesn't act like a single reservoir across the entire field area. But in general they can still model the changing water cut and predict the future decline rate with some accuracy. Unfortunately, just like PEMEX, they don't care to share the details. Not that the estimates of future recovery would be accurate down to a percent or two, but we would still have a much clearer view of the big picture.
thxs for the explanation, Rockman.
ROCKMAN, in some articles on TOD the writer uses satellite pictures of Ghawar to make an estimate of depletion. I understand from your comment that this wouldn't give very good information about future production.
Han -- the sat photos can offer some idea about the number of new drill sites and possibly abandoned drill sites. The number and pattern of new drill sites might offer a clue to the KSA objectives. But beyond that we can't tell if a new well is making 5000 bopd or 500 bopd or, for that matter, injecting 20,000 bbls of water per day.
I've worked on projects where I had all the detailed data at my finger tips and even then there can be a good bit of guess work. There's even a pretty good uncertainty as to just how much oil the KSA et al export on any given month. The KSA has a pretty good handle of the future production of Ghawar and other developed fields. But I'll won't expect them to ever share that info with anyone. I don't know if the law is still in effect but long ago the penalty for any KSA citizen divulging such info was death.
ROCKMAN, I had other foto's in my mind. Those where the water was coloured blue and the oil red.
About drilling sites: I read that when the number of drilled sites increases (in a short period of time), it is an indicator of the start of declining oilproduction. Then even drilling at many more sites don't increase production or prevent decline. It is IMO one of the most convincing happenings to help people show how geological peaking works.
Han -- You got a good take on the increase in dril sites in old fields. As far as the blue/red foto's I can only guess it was just a graphic representation of how someone picked the current oil distribution. Sat fotos can have an application in the exploration biz but you can't actually see where the oil is under the ground from space.
July Pemex data was 588,210 b/d first released on August 21. The next Pemex release is set for later this month. Is the 500,000 b/d a confirmed August number? I can't get the article.
Newman, punch up http://news.google.com/ then copy and paste the title of the article, Mexico's Fading Oil Output Crimps Exports , into the search bar and you can read the entire article.
I found this line from the article interesting:
Yeah Right! Cantarell will decline until it hits 400,000 bp/d then it will stop declining and pump that amount per day forever.
Ron P.
He didn't say forever. Stabilize could mean
maybe a few years 400 kbd and thereafter a slow decline.
A few years? I hope you are joking?
Ron P.
Thanks for the tip to get the article. The 500,000 b/d is not a confirmed number for August, but Mr. Morales is probably close. In August 08, Cantarell produced 988,100 b/d. If August 09 is the same as what Mr. Morales stated,, it would represent a fall of 49.5% from August 08. Which is larger than the 41% yoy fall in July. The month over month fall would be 15%.
In regard to the 400,000 b/d hopeful stabilization plan, My WAG is that Pemex knows the midpoint of the existing oil column that is collapsing at so many feet per month. Gas on top and water underneath should show a pattern of well failures. The plan could be horizontal wells at the midpoint to get as much of the oil that is left.
However, the pressure of nitrogen injection on top and water from below would logically collapse faster if more is pumped from the center, so my WAG is that this plan will not stabilize Cantarell for long.
Maybe newman. Again, without the details it hard to guess. Typically in a pure gas cap expansion drive the operator will drill more wells at the extreme down dip edge of the reservoir to replace the updip producers as the "gas out" (start producing the N cap as it expands downdip). There could also be some water movement from the downdip also but again we lack the details. But drilling down dip replacement wells generally don't increase ultimate recover...they just replace some of the flow rate from the higher shut-in wells. Thus PEMEX could "stablize" the production to a degree but as Ron points out only for a while. But these new wells cost money that PEMEX doesn't have. And, as a said above, might not incease recovery so they make no additional income over time but just increases the short term cash flow. Sort of like the old "damned if you do ...damned if you don't".
But I'm definately with Ron: using stabilization is probabaly a very inappropriate choice.
Regarding the article "Saudi sees shift in strong oil market"
In the article Ali al-Naimi says "We have capacity of 12.5 million bpd".
Is this accurate? I thought their true PROCESSING CAPACITY was around 10.5 Million BPD. I think I read that in Matt Simmons' book, Twilight in the Desert".
Is Naimi bluffing? Or am I wrong?
Does a camel sleep in the woods?
Capacity as they define it is whatever they say it is, and that keeps changing. Of course they're bluffing, because they want the world to believe that the best is yet to come.
CRUDE, The Trailer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duFXuRnd2CU
Might provide a alternative view to Gail's chaperoned trip. but is probably just leftists propaganda to prevent a fair profit being made.
A commenter on the trailer, figured out what was the matter with the world.
Oil sands may feel effect of Norway election
See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-a...
Cheers,
Paul
From the linked article China Drops Libyan Oil Deal Amid Resistance:
I feel a sneeze coming on.... ah ... ahh ... aahhh ... Lockerbie! Pardon me.
Banks are now making more money off "overdraft protection" than they are from credit cards.
Overspending on Debit Cards Is a Boon for Banks
One congresscritter is pushing for legislation that would require banks to warn customers if they are about to incur an overdraft fee, and ban them from shuffling transactions so that the largest is first.
There's something seriously wrong with this picture. They can't stay in business unless they're allowed to trick their customers into paying outrageous fees?
That's why I never did business again with BoA after they screwed me for a couple of hundred dollars in bank fees right before the end of a college semester. This was in '90 or so. I see their business model not only hasn't changed much, but has become a model for the industry.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsB...
"Economists warn the expansion is fragile and will have staying power only if consumers start spending more money. Rising unemployment that keeps Americans cautions could make for a plodding recovery in the months ahead."
========
Just the sort of BS Money spending as if everything were peachy keen stuff you'd expect from the people who brought us the latest and greatest turn of events the last 2 years. I don't think I know anyone that has extra money to spend on anything that they don't already spend it on, food and a place to stay, all the extras like going out to eat every other meal has been sliced. 9.7 % unemployed, with figures not even showing the ones that still have not found work in the last little while because we still have not helped the 125,000 new people needing jobs.
It is so late in the morning it does feel like a RANT. But wasn't this what Bush said after 2001 when the towers were poofed into dust, "Go out and spend your little credit cards blank! Rub them so hard you hope to get the Magic Genie out of them."
Someone asked me the other day why I was telling them I don't give to Political parties or those people running for office. I told them that with less than 9,000 dollars a year to spend on everything that needs cash, I really can't afford to blow money like that. Then I hung up on them.
And one of my credit card companies keeps sending me a new card to sign off on, I keep cutting it up and pitching the offer, I don't need more bills, and NO I am not going to Spend one more dime to help the rest of you all to get out of the Near Depression we are in. I read somewhere the term "Great Recession" as if not mouthing the Depression word, just using Great on the Recession they could smooth over the hurt about to hit the High Tech Aerospace Complex when NASA goes on the skids in a few weeks.
Clunkers for Space,,, Bail out for Space Station,,, Where is my bumber sticker team when I need them.
Charles E Owens Jr.