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DrumBeat: July 3, 2009
Posted by Leanan on July 3, 2009 - 10:18am
Eager to Tap Iraq's Vast Oil Reserves, Industry Execs Suggested Invasion
Two years before the invasion of Iraq, oil executives and foreign policy advisers told the Bush administration that the United States would remain "a prisoner of its energy dilemma" as long as Saddam Hussein was in power.That April 2001 report, "Strategic Policy Challenges for the 21st Century," was prepared by the James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy and the US Council on Foreign Relations at the request of then-Vice President Dick Cheney.
In retrospect, it appears that the report helped focus administration thinking on why it made geopolitical sense to oust Hussein, whose country sat on the world's second largest oil reserves.
"Iraq remains a destabilizing influence to the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East," the report said.
Crude Oil Falls to $66 in New York, 10% Below This Year’s High
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York fell below $66 a barrel, a 10 percent decline from this year’s high, marking a market “correction.”Crude oil is set for a third weekly drop after U.S. unemployment rose to the highest in almost 26 years, signaling the world’s largest energy user remains mired in recession. Prices may drop again next week on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the weak economy curbs demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
“It has been a double whammy for crude oil,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “You’ve got a stronger dollar and weaker- than-expected economic data, so that was a huge catalyst to start selling crude.”
Russia’s call to raise cost of gas falls on deaf ears
Moscow has asked Seoul to readjust the price of the liquid natural gas that Russia began exporting to Korea this year after Russian government officials complained that the price agreed upon in 2004 is too low. But Seoul officials have refused to renegotiate the deal, which was sealed five years ago.According to officials of Korea’s Knowledge Economy Ministry and Korea Gas Corp., Russia recently made an official request to raise the price of the liquid natural gas from the Sakhalin gas reserve during the latest session of the Korea-Russia Joint Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation. The meeting was held in Seoul on July 1.
Kashagan development costs slashed
The cost of developing Kazakhstan's huge Kashagan oilfield will be cut by at least $1 billion as the global crisis drives down machinery prices, Kazakh Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said today.The oilfield, in the north-east of the Caspian Sea, is due to come onstream in 2012. Kazakhstan's government had earlier estimated its total cost at $136 billion.
Russia Gazprom plans $2 bln Eurobond in two tranches
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's gas export monopoly, Gazprom, plans to issue a Eurobond in two tranches denominated in dollars and euros and worth up to $2 billion in total, banking sources told Reuters on Friday.The monopoly plans to channel part of the proceeds to its oil arm, Gazprom Neft, to help it finance a buying spree.
Turkey gives green light to EU gas pipeline deal
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – Turkey will host the signing of an inter-governmental agreement on the EU-backed Nabucco gas pipeline on 13 July, in a major breakthrough for the long-delayed project aimed at reducing Europe's gas reliance on Russia.
Coal. Under the surface we seem to have a lot of it. It’s fairly inexpensive but this is changing as demand rises to meet increased energy needs especially in countries like China. So we have a lot, its cheap, let’s use it, what’s the problem? Right? Wrong!Author Richard Heinberg writes in Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis, “In short: two of the defining trends of the emerging century–the development of the Asian economies and climate change–both center on coal. But coal is finite non-renewable resource. Thus, a discussion of the future of coal must also intersect with a third great trend of the new century: resource depletion.”
Iranian cleric: British Embassy staff to be tried
A top Iranian cleric said Friday that some of the detained Iranian staffers of the British Embassy in Tehran will be put on trial, and he accused Britain of a role in instigating widespread protests that erupted over the country's disputed presidential election.
What's the tipping point for revolution?
Skepparkroken, Sweden – How can it be that 70,000 protesters in Leipzig in 1989 tore down the Berlin Wall, while up to a million protesters in Tehran in 2009 managed only – so far – to trigger repression? Or, to phrase it differently, what's the tipping point for revolution? Just when does civil society trump entrenched political power?
KFC's proposal: First pot pies, now potholes
Everybody needs a little KFC. But maybe not Chicago.The fast-food chain has sent off a letter to the nation's mayors, offering to patch their potholes for free. The company will leave behind a stenciled brand on the patch informing people the road has been "Re-Freshed by KFC."
Oil's record high, one year later: Crude is less than half its $145 peak of last July 3 - as a global economic slowdown zaps demand
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One year ago, on July 3, 2008, oil prices settled at a record high -- a once-unthinkable $145.29 a barrelOn Thursday, it settled at $66.73, less than half the record price, following a $2.58 decline.
In between, a global demand surge morphed into a global economic slowdown -- one that would drive the price of oil as low as $33.87 in December -- followed by the partial recovery that has been underway since.
A year ago, oil was driven higher by two factors. One was the emergence of new global economic powers such as China, India and Russia, competing with the United States and the West for the world's oil. The other was a weak dollar, the currency of crude trading.
Oil May Fall on U.S. Fuel Inventories Increase, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the recession curbs demand in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country.Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said futures will decline through July 10. Nine respondents, or 24 percent, said the market will be little changed and 10, or 27 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise. Last week, 55 percent of analysts said prices would drop.
OPEC and IEA Agree Not to Disagree: A Good Omen for the Industry
For a change now, the OPEC viewpoint seems to be gaining ground, getting the due attention it deserves. This was not based on rhetoric or partisan energy politics, it was based on facts, simple and pure facts, one could say now without the fear of being ridiculed.The world of energy today increasingly appreciates that wide scale speculation in oil markets carries tremendous risks. When Asian energy ministers met in Japan earlier this year, the issue of speculation was underlined, with everyone -- producers as well as the consumers -- emphasizing it could cause havoc to the global energy markets.
Interestingly now even the IEA, the OECD energy watchdog and the EU are also emphasizing that oil markets risk another speculative bubble unless the financial sector is reformed, reined in and transparency is enhanced.
Canadian Superior granted bankruptcy protection
Canadian Superior Energy Inc. said its application seeking court protection from creditors was successful, staying all claims against the oil and gas producer and its assets.The court order, effective until March 25, allows the company to prepare a plan to payoff creditors, including the proposed sale of a stake of 25% or more in a promising gas discovery in Trinidad and Tobago.
Pumped storage hydro plants enjoy dual boost
Scottish and Southern announces plan for first new UK pumped storage plants in more than 30 years, as US government releases fresh hydro funding.
Interest in bees and chickens soars ahead of last Royal Show
In the past year, the smallholder retailer Countrywide has seen a 40 per cent increase in net sales across all poultry products in the past year.Simon McEwan, editor of Country Smallholding magazine, said: “Many suppliers report that business has been very brisk over the past year. From humble beginnings in the 1970s, the grow-your-own revolution is gathering pace.
“Concerns about food security, climate change, food miles and the energy crisis are also considerations. No doubt the credit crunch is having an effect too.”
Organic Farms as Subdivision Amenities
SOUTH BURLINGTON, Vt. — The bewildered Iowan who converted his farm into a ballpark in “Field of Dreams” in 1989 might reverse the move today. From Vermont to central California, developers are creating subdivisions around organic farms to attract buyers. If you plant it, these developers believe, they will buy.Increasingly, subdivisions, usually master-planned developments at which buyers buy home sites or raw land, have been treating farms as an amenity. “There are currently at least 200 projects that include agriculture as a key community component,” said Ed McMahon, a senior fellow with the Urban Land Institute.
A Farmer in Suburbia, Not So Far Afield
Set among the rolling green hills of Loudoun County, Jim Dunlap's farm hasn't changed much since the 1780s. The original fieldstone farmhouse, designed by William Penn, is still there, albeit larger after two additions. So is the stone smokehouse and a spring house. There are peach trees, raspberry bushes and vegetables. If Isaac James, a former owner and the great-grandfather of outlaw Jesse, were to visit, he would see just one real difference: SnowBear Farm is now the only farm in sight. The property is surrounded by huge suburban mansions with wide, empty lawns.Of course, these days it's more surprising to find a working farm than McMansions in Loudoun. But Dunlap, a retired CIA operations officer, wanted to farm here. His little piece of suburbia is perfectly situated for a small farmer just starting out: The land is fertile, and the location, just 55 miles from Washington, puts him within striking distance of lucrative urban farmers markets, where prices and demand are high for produce grown without pesticides or chemical fertilizers. "We need to take a lot of this land that's used for pet horses and giant lawns and find ways to grow food on it again," Dunlap said. "My work is an experiment to figure out how we can do it."
Bike shop puts neighborhood teens to work
Humboldt Park-area kids coming into program learned bike repair and became owners of the bikes they worked on. Gregorio Lozada was one of them and is now a bike mechanic employed here."My mind is set to put things together, take 'em apart, so I can sit here and take this bike apart and I can put it back together. It's easy for me," said Lozada.
Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert
DUNHUANG, China — As the United States takes its first steps toward mandating that power companies generate more electricity from renewable sources, China already has a similar requirement and is investing billions to remake itself into a green energy superpower.Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China’s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.
While the House of Representatives approved a requirement last week that American utilities generate more of their power from renewable sources of energy, and the Senate will consider similar proposals over the summer, China imposed such a requirement almost two years ago.
Oil hovers above $66 in Asia after weak jobs data
SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $66 a barrel Friday in Asia in light holiday trading a day after grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. and Europe sent crude prices tumbling.
Oil brokerage PVM names rogue trader
LONDON (Reuters) - PVM Oil Futures Limited said on Friday that Steve Perkins, a senior broker based at the firm's London office, was responsible for unauthorized trades earlier this week which landed the firm with a loss of nearly $10 million.The London-based brokerage said Perkins had taken the unauthorized positions in Brent crude futures early on Tuesday morning.
The heavy buying of Brent futures in Asian trade on Tuesday caused global crude prices to spike to their highest level this year, in a move traders and analysts had previously struggled to explain.
OPEC Says ‘Satisfied’ With Current Crude Oil Price
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC is “satisfied” with the current oil price, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said today in Beijing.The current price is “good for all of us, the consumers and the producers,” de Vasconcelos said. The world economy has recovered and “this price is a balanced price for us,” he told reporters at the Global Think Tank Summit.
Saudi Arabia May Cut Heavy-Oil Price as Processing Profits Drop
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may lower the official price of its heavy oil grade sold to Asia from a six-year high as processing profit for fuel used by ships and power plants declined in the previous month, refinery officials said.
Qatar to Roll Back Crude Oil Supply Cut in August, Refiners Say
(Bloomberg) -- Qatar Petroleum will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil to term customers in Asia in August, rolling back a 15 percent cut imposed in July on one of its grades, refinery officials said.The state-owned company last month pledged full volumes of its Qatar Land grade for July, but cut Qatar Marine shipments by 15%, traders at two refiners who hold one-year contracts said today. They asked to remain unidentified because of confidentiality agreements with the supplier.
European countries were urged to start stockpiling gas reserves for the winter as another gas crisis involving Russia and Ukraine is looming.The European Commission said a repeat of January's energy shortfall was likely if Ukraine failed to raise €4.2m needed to pay for Russian gas supplies required to fill its storage facilities.
Venezuela, China May Sign New Loan-for-Oil Accord, Chavez Says
(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela and China Development Bank Corp. are discussing a third $4 billion infrastructure loan to be paid in oil, President Hugo Chavez said.“This bank is the one with the most money in the world,” Chavez said late yesterday on state television. “It has half the money in the world and is allied with Venezuela.”
PetroChina boosts output at Sulige gasfield
BEIJING (Reuters) - Top oil and gas firm PetroChina raised daily output at its largest Sulige gasfield, in northern China's Ordos Basin, to 25.6 million cubic metres, up 67 percent from last July, its parent CNPC said.
The Reasons Behind Big Oil Declining Iraq's Riches
Any notion that the invasion of Iraq was simply an oil grab took another hit on Tuesday when Baghdad opened the bidding on the rights to develop its massive energy reserves. In a day-long auction of eight huge oil fields — some of the world's biggest — virtually all the 41 foreign companies invited to bid by the Iraqi government balked at the Baghdad terms. The only contract signed was a 20-year deal for a consortium led by BP and China's National Petroleum Corporation to develop the giant Rumaila field in southern Iraq. "Frankly I did not think it would be such a fiasco and embarrassment for the government," says Rochdi Younsi, Director of Middle East and Africa for the Eurasia Group in Washington. "It shows the level of disconnect between the Ministry of Oil and the oil companies."
Iraq over optimistic on oil, output to fall - IEA
LONDON (Reuters) - Iraqi plans to raise oil output to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017 are likely to be over optimistic, the International Energy Agency said on Monday, saying oil capacity could fall over the next two years.The IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report it had taken a very conservative view of Iraqi production capacity for 2008/14 despite tremendous international interest in the country's oil development projects.
It forecast Iraqi oil production capacity would fall to as low as 2.23 million bpd in 2010/11 before gradually rising to 2.7 million bpd by 2014. The country's oil production is now between 2.3 million and 2.4 million bpd, industry sources say.
China’s CNPC, Cnooc Group Said to Seek Stake in Repsol’s YPF
(Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA is in talks with China National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. about a sale of a stake in its Argentinean unit, three people familiar with the discussions said.
Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline
(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Algeria and Niger signed an agreement on a proposed Trans-Saharan pipeline that will ship natural gas from Nigeria to Europe.The accord was signed by Nigerian Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, Niger’s Energy Minister Mohammed Abdullahi and his Algerian counterpart Chakib Khelil in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, today.
An explosion that damaged a natural-gas pipeline in northeast British Columbia this week is likely linked to earlier attacks on energy facilities in the area, the RCMP said yesterday.
US envoy returns to post in Venezuela
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — A U.S. envoy who was expelled last year by President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he hopes to re-establish dialogue after resuming his post in Venezuela.
Ally's Ouster Gives Venezuela's Chávez a Stage, an Opportunity
CARACAS, Venezuela -- An ally was in trouble, toppled in a military coup. And the television cameras were rolling.The ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya could not have been better scripted for another Latin American leader who has taken center stage: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The populist firebrand has been Zelaya's most forceful advocate and could win international accolades if the Honduran eventually succeeds in regaining power.
$49M power line project will support crude oil pipeline
A new $49 million electric transmission line is being planned to support the TransCanada Keystone crude oil pipeline project that will run through central Nebraska.
A month with no driving explores a car-crazy culture
Beginning Tuesday follow along with News reporter Fred Davies as he tosses his car keys and embarks on a month of no driving.A multi-part feature will examine the state of transportation in Oceanside, as he delves into a car crazy (some might say addicted) culture and discovers what all that driving means for livability in the region.
The state of public transit, how municipalities fare in addressing accessibility, health impacts, potential fixes, their cost and who might pay for it, will all be grist for the mill.
Japan may add noise to quiet hybrid cars for safety
TOKYO (AFP) – Japan's near-silent hybrid cars have been called dangerous by the vision-impaired and some users, prompting a government review on whether to add a noise-making device, according to an official.
Spain backtracks on nuclear power phase-out
MADRID (AFP) – Spain's government said Thursday it would allow the country's oldest nuclear reactor to operate beyond its intended 40-year lifespan, reversing a policy of gradually phasing out nuclear power.Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China’s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.
EPA extends comment period on biofuel standard
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday said it was extending the comment period on a draft rule that aims to cut greenhouse gases emitted by biofuels.The proposed changes to the 2007 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard attempt to make production of corn-based ethanol more efficient and increase output of advanced biofuels.
Another endangered elephant dies in Indonesia: WWF
Five of the eight elephants have died near or inside the concession area. Three were killed for their tusks and four were poisoned after eating palm oil plants doused in toxic chemicals."Some people are trying to protect their palm oil crops in the area by pouring insecticides on the plants. Maybe it's not intentional but it has killed a few elephants," Syamsidar said.
Conflicts between wild animals and humans are on the rise on Sumatra, where legal and illegal logging is rapidly reducing the tropical jungle.
EPA allows TVA to dump spilled coal ash in Ala.
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. – The nation's largest utility can dump millions of tons of coal ash from a Tennessee spill into an Alabama landfill, federal regulators said Thursday, despite criticism that the plan is unfair to one of Alabama's poorest counties.
Exxon, Valero Face New Curbs on Cancer-Causing Gases
(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is considering new curbs on U.S. oil refineries whose gas emissions pose a cancer risk to hundreds of thousands of people living near the plants, setting up a potential conflict with companies over the cost of new regulations.The White House suspended a ruling signed by President George W. Bush four days before he left office that found refiners were adequately controlling benzene and other cancer- causing gases, said Cathy Milbourn, a spokeswoman at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Federal ‘organic’ label’s integrity under fire: Consumers who pay up to twice as much don’t always get what they expect
WASHINGTON - Three years ago, U.S. Department of Agriculture employees determined that synthetic additives in organic baby formula violated federal standards and should be banned from a product carrying the federal organic label. Today the same additives, purported to boost brainpower and vision, can be found in 90 percent of organic baby formula.The government's turnaround, from prohibition to permission, came after a USDA program manager was lobbied by the formula makers and overruled her staff. That decision and others by a handful of USDA employees, along with an advisory board's approval of a growing list of non-organic ingredients, have helped numerous companies win a coveted green-and-white "USDA Organic" seal on an array of products.
Incredible shrinking sheep blamed on climate change
Sheep living on a remote island off the coast of Scotland have been shrinking for 20 years. Now it seems shorter winters caused by climate change are responsible.
Los Angeles will end use of coal-fired power
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Los Angeles will eliminate the use of electricity made from coal by 2020, replacing it with power from cleaner renewable energy sources, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said.Consumers of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the largest city-owned utility in the United States with 1.45 million electricity customers, will see higher power bills in the fight against climate change, he added in his inaugural speech for his second four-year term as mayor on Wednesday.
Indian FM urges 'ambitious but fair' climate targets
TOKYO (AFP) – India's foreign minister on Friday called for an ambitious but fair greenhouse gas reduction target under a new climate treaty, saying any pact should not hinder the economic growth of developing countries.
Study: Tropical rain band is shifting north - Warming suspected; freshwater shortages for some Pacific isles likely
Earth's most prominent rain band, near the equator, has been moving north at an average rate of almost a mile a year for three centuries, likely because of a warming world, scientists say.The band supplies fresh water to almost a billion people and affects climate elsewhere.
If the migration continues, some Pacific islands near the equator that today enjoy abundant rainfall may be starved of freshwater by midcentury or sooner, researchers report in the July issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.
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Economic Fragility Underestimated - Collapse May Be Imminent
And of course Peak Oil makes collapse even more likely. The outlook is bleak indeed.
Ron P.
www.leap2020.eu concluded in its' latest bulletin it's highly likely the US and the Uk wil default on their debt by the end of summer.
Last week I re-watched The End of Suburbia(from Nov. 2004) and it was astonishing how the predictions of various characters(Heinberg, Klare) for 5 years out back then were so accurate. I was in some sort of shock really!
Leap2020 is interesting, but as always, I think they're wrong on the timing. They predicted a systemic economic meltdown for 2006. The fed was supposed to stand firm against inflation, tightening the money supply. The dollar was supposed to have collapsed by now.
I only follow theirs since about 1 year or so. It is interesting as you say. Anyway thanks for pointing out they got it wrong back in 2006. I'm always pretty critical in everything I read anyway.
Actually, I bought a new used car today; the old one was getting too small (actually, the kids are getting too big) and maintenance costs were escalating. It's a 4 cylinder 1.6 liter.
Picking exact dates is always difficult. However there is always a tendency to see things happening earlier than they actually happen. Seasoned stock traders know that insider traders are nearly always right and nearly always early. They see their companies economic indicators telling them of either disaster or greater profits. But these events are never as imminent as they believe. The economy is a similar case.
However world oil production has peaked and the economy of the US is currently in the process of collapsing. Just how long this process will take is purely guesswork.
Ron P.
Exactly. Especially for Leap2020. I think they confine their predictions to 6 months to a year out. They've been predicting imminent collapse for years now. Eventually, they'll be right.
I do think they are right on the fundamentals (aside from a certain euro-centrism), but probably not on the timing. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and all that.
Not only that, but the system has a vested interest in maintaining itself and trying to prevent collapse. There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit..
EricY - "There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit.."
I very much disagree that the can has been kicked at all. Not only are things not staying static but they are worse in many respects,e.g., layoffs continue at a high rate and show no sign of even leveling off.
And, consider "the bad side effects: I'd refer to them as the disasterous side effects. The US is going to go down in flames.
I wish I had more time but I have to get back to the garden.
Todd
In thinking about the future, I am wondering if anyone would care to predict what the Christmas buying season this year (only 5 months away from the start?) will be like for merchants.
If the economy stays down as I suspect, I would guess that the merchants will take a shellacking which will leave many manufacturers in trouble also. Could make it very difficult for things to turn up in the first quarter or two of 2010?
"there is always a tendency to see things happening earlier than they actually happen"
Yeah, look at CC. And on your first post today, PO IMO guarantees collapse ISO make it "likely". It is indeed all about timing and I more and more lean to the slow catabolic collapse scenario as Leanan is depicting.
Cheers Ron.
Folks who Twitter, Text or chat on the internet know all the acronyms. I don't do any of those things so I often have a problem with them. I have no problem with most of them like PO or IMO but others leave me guessing. CC? Crude + Condensate? Carbon Copy? Google says it is most likely Creative Commons but I doubt that.
And how about ISO? Google says it is International Organization for Standardization but I seriously doubt that is what you meant also.
Ron P.
Catabolic Collapse. There's an essay here.
I work for the government and I couldn't survive without Acronym Finder
There is an Acronym Guide on TOD HERE
Not sure how you get to it, I found it in my bookmarks. Still missing some key acronyms like NPK, I-NPK, O-NPK, ISO=butane?
NPK are the respective elements of fertilizer; I for inorganic, O for organic.
N = Nitrogen
P = Phosphorus
K = Potassium
Alan
Regarding EOS, I agree. The trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM
... and as we know, this statement has been made for the past 100 years
i guess at some point it will be true
Poly, your reply is pointless and silly. People have been predicting everything that can possibly be imagined for hundreds of years. How about The Second Coming or the Rapture? Must these things happen because they have been predicted?
There are serious concerns about Peak Oil and/or the collapsing economy. Declining oil production and the mounting debt load mean these things should be discussed by serious and concerned people. However such cynical replies as yours have no place in a serious discussion.
If you have serious doubts about that any kind of collapse is coming in the next few decades then please express your reasons for this opinion. However if you have only cynical or silly replies then please keep quiet.
Ron P.
'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan
The woman asking about human nature and predictions being 5 to 10 years off at times - at least Taleb pointed out that it doesn't matter if it is 1 minute after prediction or 10 years, you should still take precaution and plan because the end result is inevitable.
"Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline."
This area is controlled by Tuareg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuareg . This makes such a pipeline very sensitive to disruptions.
Buried in the NY Times article on China's Renewable Energy Drive is this whopper:
"China has limited coal reserves — 41 years at current rates of production — and the potential for hydroelectric power is leveling off as most eligible rivers have already been dammed."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/business/energy-environment/03renew.ht...
The immediate question is ---- when did China hit peak coal output?
Was it 2007, around May?
Not sure when they hit peak, but my recollection is that they were using about 2% of their reserves/year, which implies that they would use it up in 50 years assuming no increases in consumption. So the numbers that they cite seem consistent..
I just checked, and both the BP Report (2008 and 2009) quote the 41 years at current rates of consumption number.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/re...
It is not clear how they get that data ---- because Chinese data is conflicting, with at least one source (below) citing a number closer to twice that:
"China has abundant coal resources with scattered distribution. All types of coal with high quality have been explored. Most of them are of low sulfur, low-medium ash and medium-high thermal value. Its proved coal reserve is over 1 trillion tons, of which 188.6 billion tons can be used directly. This means that the coal can be mined for about 80 years according to the annual output of 2.52 billion tons in2007."
http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-09-10/1221007342d17084.html
Regardless of which data point you use, with exponential growth in demand, there is not 40 or 80 years, but some number well below that.
Even if we accept the 40 year figure --- that is hardly 2 generations to find a replacement for what is the most important energy source for China.
As always it isn't the URR (40 years at today's rate is the URR) but the rate of affordable supply to permit exponential growth that is the problem.
The coal will last much longer than 40 years - but at some stage (not as far away as 40 years) it just won't be burned as fast as Chinese BAU needs.
I have pointed this out before but with Google timelines you can do an interesting trick. Google some search terms -- coal discovered -- and you can get an idea of when something peaked. I would be willing to bet that the actual discovery peak occurred at the averaged peak of this profile within a few years, if I could remove the USA bias on Google searches.
If you add China to the search, it looks a bit different.
Now, I realize this is a very qualitative approach to defining peak but it is interesting to see how the the peak profile can reveal itself. It is definitely a crude data mining technique but it has some relationship to the approach popularized by "wisdom of the crowds". It is amazing how accurate some wisdom of the crowds results have been.
If someone else has some ideas on how to improve on this technique, I would be interested. It doesn't take a lot of effort :)
One of the projects I have played with is the estimate of energy intensively of Chinese exports.
While cheap labor is a big component of Chinese exports, the real big subsidy is cheap energy.
While industrial use electricity is not cheap in China (cheaper than Japan, but much more expensive than USA), "residential electricity", which include many small to medium sized businesses, have some of the lowest electricity charges in the world.
Likewise, prices for petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, etc.) are comparable to the US --- an incredible bargain.
Coal and natural gas prices are also extremely low --- thus many steel plants that rely on it to power their processes directly (rather than buy electricity derived from coal) have a huge advantage over producers in Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, etc. that have to import their coal (or in the case of Japan, import LNG because the coal is too dirty to burn).
The net result of this is that many Chinese exports, e.g. consumer goods, tools and iron / steel products, machine tools, auto parts, are basically disguised exports of energy (cheap coal).
Industries like metals recycling (scrap iron, lead, aluminum, copper, etc.) are also highly energy intensive.
Factor these issues out, and quickly, much of the Chinese exports consist of not much more than disguised exports of modest priced labor (not cheap), energy exports, with very little value added in China.
I wonder if it is a coincidence that the world economy tanked as this new "incremental" source of energy inputs into the world economy peaked around 2007.
Do you have anything that can be presented formally, such as in a TOD post?
I've monkeyed around with the Google Timeline a bit as well, here is what you get for fuel shortage for instance:
image link
You could speculate that the uptick in the late 40s was due to rationing in WWII (almost certain)/US becoming a net importer (maybe), or that rising demand led to the rash of stories we've seen in the Noughts, but I've never seen an analysis of this tool for robustness or bias, so not sure how useful it would be as a predictive device.
Here's "Peak oil." Funny how the term sometimes cropped up in the past before Colin popularized it, but those are just coincidences.
As with site traffic here and elsewhere this seems to track the crude price roughly. In fact it looks like things really take off when peakoil.com came online in '04.
Those are good correlations; the key thing is that the google timeline histograms count the mention of specific events happening at those dates.
WHT,
I went and tried 'oil discovered' and I didn't see a big correlation to the other oil discovery charts I have seen posted here on TOD and at other web sites.
Also, the lack of units on the Y-axis is not helpful.
Maybe Wolfram Alpha
http://www.wolframalpha.com/
will show something useful....
The y-axis on a histogram is a count , so it has to be normalized. The shape is the important thing. Not every query will give good results. A good one is "phosphate discovery"
From Europe urged to stockpile gas
So since January we are led to believe that European Nat Gas companies intentionally severely depleted their reserves to snub Gazprom and now are being ordered to scramble to try and fill storage for the winter. As I said at the time the heads of these companies should be immediately removed from post for leading Europe to a potential massive crisis this coming winter.
Or alternatively Matt Simmons is correct and these executives know that Russia can't supply the gas and the truth is being intentionally kept from the public.
I don't think that follows. Summer is when natural gas reserves are traditionally built up for the winter. (Though that pattern may be changing in some parts of the world, due to the increased use of air-conditioning.)
I think the root of the problem here is price. Russia forced Ukraine to agree to a contract at a higher price than the market now supports. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. They can't afford to pay. And with consumption and prices falling, who wants to stock up at a higher price?
But this year European storage has to be filled from a much lower level than in the past - and that's the problem - this isn't a normal summer refill season by any stretch of the imagination. Had the companies bought the volume of gas they were, in the main, pre-contracted to take delivery of (despite the price), there would not be a problem with scrambling to refill now. It's also curious that although Moscow makes noises about fining Ukraine for not taking the pre-contracted amounts it hasn't suggested fining Europe for doing likewise - even though it would appear to have a very good case for doing so. This announcement by the EU I see as a tacit admission that it may already be too late to fully fill European storage in time for the winter. We may need another big drop in industrial output to balance things.
Also recall the IEA statement a few months ago that only the recession saved Europe from a full blown Russian supply crisis last year.
I think most of us peak oilers agree that the recession saved us from a supply crisis in general. Except for those of us who think peak oil caused the recession.
Regardless...the Great Recession is here, and demand is down. There's a worldwide glut of natural gas. Even in Asia, traditionally the tightest market.
The European LNG import terminals only have limited capacity and, more importantly, the distribution network does not have anything like the necessary reverse flow capacity to to fill all of European storage by LNG (in the absence of Russian Gas) no matter how much of a glut there might be worldwide. The UK is perfectly fine for the moment as long as surplus LNG exists.
A committee is currently figuring out what to do...
Press release: GTE+ launches work on reverse flow study (PDF)
I'm not saying there aren't problems in Europe. But I think the issue is price, not production. The recession means lower prices and less consumption, but it also means less ability to pay. I think Russia is really feeling the price drop.
Russia is feeling the price drop but if Ukraine can't afford to pay now in the middle of summer when demand is at its lowest do you think they will find it easier to pay in the middle of winter when demand is at its highest?
They pay the same either way.
That's the issue, really. Russia got them into a long-term contract, and now that the prices have dropped, the Ukraine doesn't want to pay the price they initially agreed on.
Thanks, Undertow, for all your work on this. I agree it is concerning. Whether the issue is price or something else, there is cause for alarm if storage is not filled during summer. When winter comes, it is too late.
I am afraid it will be a combination of a lot of not-so-little things like this that brings the world economy down. If natural gas isn't available, there will be a big drop in industrial production, and possibly in electrical supply.
Hello Undertow,
Thanks for your work and links.
The above diagram shows relative degree of filling of storage in Germany that report numbers to GSE (Gas Storage Europe). What might seem as “steps” in 2009 reporting is due to new companies joining the reporting to GSE, that is why a relative representation of storage presently is believed to give the best picture of how things are.
For Germany storage was approximately 20 % below the level of last year at this time (week 26). Normally they build towards 95 % filling by week 36, that is early September. As from early September gas available for storage rapidly declines due to increased consumption. This could be different this year, but during the heating season, residential and commercial users dominate gas consumption.
The above diagram shows relative degree of filling of storage in Baumgarten (Austria serving Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Rumania to name some) that report numbers to GSE (Gas Storage Europe).
For Baumgarten storage was approximately 34 % below the level last year at this time (week 26). Normally they build towards 95 % filling by week 36, that is early September.
Under equal circumstances, these two storage facilities are reported running approximately 8 Gcm behind last year and it will require an estimated average 100 Mcm/d more nat gas into storage from now till week 36 than last year if same storage level shall be met.
Therefore, an interruption of supplies from Russia this summer (and of course later) might have grave consequences and this perhaps helps explain worries expressed by EU energy representatives.
Yes I'd noticed that. There's also some European storage previously classed as "strategic" now included as well. At best refilling looks like it's going to be tight and, as you say, if there's any further Russian supply disruptions it's going to likely be worse than tight...
But had the European Gas companies taken delivery of the gas Gazprom claimed was available (and which they could easily afford out of their astronomical profits) over the last 6 months then this potential problem wouldn't exist. So we come back to the question: Are they really getting away with gambling with European energy security for financial gain (the official story) or is there more to it?
The price for Ukraine in the 3rd quarter of 2009 was $198 per thousand cubic meters. This is hardly a high price. Ukraine is solely responsible for any gas supply crisis to the EU since it engages in highway robbery of the gas. Anyway, it looks like the EU is setting itself up for major pain in the near future since its russophobia prevents it from dealing with reality.
The shady gas situation, as well as volatility in prices that may resume here in Europe once Gazprom closes the pipes or otherwise, had me install a woodstove for heating and cooking as the number 1 preperation for Peak Oil & Gas. We still have quite a bit of NG left here in Holland, but it's very cosy during the dark days in winter anyway.
Paulus:
How is your wood supply? What if many others follow your lead? I have not been to Holland for many many years and even then just a tourist passing through but I don't recall forests. Peak wood?
Hello TODers,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8132084.stm
-----------------------
Italy adopts law to curb migrants
Italy's parliament has given final approval to a law criminalising illegal immigration and allowing citizens' patrols to help the police keep order.
The new measures have been strongly criticised by human rights groups and the Vatican.
..A right-wing uniformed group called the Italian National Guard was set up last month, likened by some to Benito Mussolini's Fascists. It vowed to start patrolling the streets...
-------------------------
That could get very ugly very fast, IMO, but in the final Thermo/Gene Analysis--we always get 'down & dirty' to tribal levels at Overshoot crunchtime. I wonder how quickly we 'Murkans will replicate conditions like in Leanan's much earlier posting:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2562/191783
------------------------
A couple of years ago, there were news stories about Somalia's "Warlords of the Wells." Warlords who took over wells (often dug with UN funds) and charged people for the water.
It's even worse now....
How bad is it in Somalia? Bad enough that people fleeing the capital have been reduced to renting trees for shelter.
-------------------------
EDIT: There is not much in the way of shallow wells and big shade trees in my giant Southwestern desert. I can see a desert warlord extorting valuables for barely succulent cactus slices and renting sleeping spots under Jumping Cholla. :(
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
You have a cornucopian business plan to survive the future in the desert - but I'm not sure it will be viable long term in the USA even with UN backing - from what I know of Americans and guns you might not live very long - plus I wonder how quickly peak cactus would occur? :-)
Jay Hanson thinks we should relocate everyone out of the desert now to prevent social chaos and mass death. Unfortunately every place that has adequate water is already full so there's no place to relocate to.
Well, to be blunt, I don't want them to come here - there are too many here now. Phoenix is now the 5th largest US city I think. The entire US SW is in major trouble with water, and simply won't be habitable for more than a tiny fraction of its current population. The rest of the country won't be able to continue subsidizing their existence with water, energy, and money. And the irony is that these are the people who most believe in their rugged individualism, but are the ones least able to survive on their own.
Also, i believe the present immigration problem from Mexico is in reality an environmental refugee problem, driven mostly by water problems. And now those who have been most vocal in complaining about it will themselves be in the same situation.
I don't pretend to know the answer, but then I don't believe there is an answer.
I don't pretend to know the answer, but then I don't believe there is an answer.
The answer is less people. But if one takes that answer off the table - then there is no "the answer".
Well of course, but what I meant to say was I don't know what they are going to do or where they are going to go. It is not my place to decide who is in the "less people" group, but in many cases - such as those who have decided to live in places that are obviously not viable - they have chosen themselves.
I'll join the bandwagon...no more people in Albuquerque either, please!
A couple of years ago the idiot mayor of Rio Rancho (across the Not-so-Rio Grande from ABQ) had a pice in the ABQ Journal where he said that his vision was for Rio Rancho to grow to dwarf ABQ...he made the analogy to how Dallas gre to eclipse the original town of Fort Worth...he said "Rio Rancho will be the Dallas to Albuquerque's Fort Worth'.
ABQ is bounded by Native American Pueblos to the North and South city limits, and by the Cibola National Forest on the Sandia Mountains to the East...however, it and Rio Rancho could theoretically expand West clear to the Rio Puerco (dry almost all the time) before it would run into another Pueblo....if only we had the water...fortunately there is no water left to get (steal), so hoefully that fantasised growth will not happen here.
The rest of the country can have all the winter cold and snow, and/or the heat and humidity.
Electricity, OTOH, should be plentiful, assuming we could manage to produce beaucoup PV panels and associated inverters etc.and blanket all the rooftops. At night, time to go to sleep, as it should be!
And what of food, should trade break down? Also, how much hotter and drier before it becomes unlivable without outside inputs and the Rio Not-So-Grand becomes the Rio Muy Pequeno?
I've got family in the Southwest who will not see what is coming. I'm actually quite curious how people now there intend to deal with decades of drought and 2 - 7F warmer. Obviously people have lived in desert environs for eons, but not in the numbers currently residing along our southern border.
Cheers
Yeah, I think Kunstler is right there. The southwest will be abandoned. It's too dry...and getting drier. They want to take water from the Great Lakes, but people in the Great Lakes area aren't too keen on that idea, and even if they were, I think peak oil and peak credit means building the necessary infrastructure would be unlikely.
I agree with the megacities going away (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tuscon although not Denver) but not all of the SW population.
Abandon non-farming irrigation and reduce massive water transfers and places like Snowflake AZ will likely continue.
http://www.ci.snowflake.az.us/visitors-main.htm
A drop back to 1950, 1960 or 1970 (depending) populations seems likely.
Alan
Detroit has unlimited fresh water and empty, cheap homes. Many other cities was well, from Baltimore to New Orleans.
Alan
Just a quibble: huge fresh water supplies, but not unlimited. nothing I can think of off the top of my head is unlimited...maybe foolishness and propaganda.
I have been involved in several military projects/programs where the MFWIC flippantly said that there were 'unlimited resources' available. Each time I fought hard to convince the 'Jefe' that their statement was not only erroneous in the extreme but was a very very bad program management and team leadership faux pas as well, leading to people waste resources. I don't know who was worse, the _AND Corporation engineering team leader or the Colonel at the Test and Evaluation Center...
The average 16,400 m3/second of water that flows by me seems unlimited for any reasonable human use.
The 5,300 m3/second by Detroit could flush the toilets and cook the food for the entire US population with plenty left over.
I choose not to retract the word "unlimited" within the context it was used.
Alan
for context on river flows:
from Wikipedia on the Colorado River
The mean flow of the river was 620 m³/s (22,000 ft³/s) during the period between 1903-34. From 1951-80, the average flow was less than 110 m³/s. I assume minimal draws from the river for human use from 1903-34 and it appears that rainfall has decreased since then.
We have some room left here in Michigan and are surrounded by one the world's largest fresh water supplies. You'll want to bring your winter jacket though.
If prices for fossil fuel heating fuels raise as much as I think, moving to the cold northern regions might be a very bad move. Most of the houses in the north are not adequately insulated for the cold weather due to cheap energy in the past. Even today most new houses in the cold north are not adequately insulated to permit affordable heating when the cost of fuels goes up dramatically.
The southeast US might be a much more livable area during times of very high fuel prices. Just pick a location that may be able to supply adequate water and be able to grow a garden.
I was just browsing some stuff on US SW drought yesterday ...
Lake Mead is at or near historic lows. Currently around 1095', if it drops to 1075' it will invoke special handling in the operating procedures for the the two reservoirs (Lake Mead and Lake Powell). If it drops below 1050', Las Vegas loses one of its two water pipelines.
http://www.arachnoid.com/NaturalResources/
http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/20090607/NEWS/906069953/1058/RSS
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/RecordofDecision.pdf
Lake Powell holds twice as much water as Lake Mead. Both are running about 50% capacity.
What will the future hold? I'm getting conflicting info on the changes brought by the coming El Nino. These two sources believe that El Nino will bring wetter summers and drier winters:
http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/elnino.htm
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=21664
But accuweather thinks it's drier summers and wetter winters:
accuweather
Looking at PDO and AMO, we see that a +AMO and -PDO leads to drier conditions for the Great Basin:
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
McCabe, 2004
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf
AMO: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
PDO: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pdoindex_1900_present.png
So +AMO and -PDO => overall drier SW USA for the next several years.
This would be similar to the 1950s which also had +AMO and -PDO:
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe50s/water_01.html
(click on the years in the boxes)
That's particularly troubling to hear both Lake Mead & Powell are still low. Here in Colorado we had a great year for snow pack, and the streams here were extra high last week. Lots of river flow, so I know it is heading downstream. Consumption downstream is the culprit IMHO...
Edward Abbey is smiling, and waiting for the land to reclaim both of those evaporation ponds.
I can't wait until Powell goes below the ability to generate. Maybe we should just blow the dams, and let things flow.
Phoenix will go back to 1940 population 40-50 thousand. Tucson may be inhibitable.
The last failure in the Salt River system resulted in cannibalism.
re: canadian superior. this story is probably past the use by date. here are more recent stories on canadian superior:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gZV-lNCLh6f...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jj0z9uJw_OI...
canadian superior drilled three wells offshore trinidad and apparently found some promising deposits. i dont know how much of what canadian superior says can be believed.
part of the reason canadian superior is in bankruptcy is they spent $300 million drilling three wells, more like deepwater costs without the deep water (by current standards). they had some drilling problems and had to sidetrack and re-drill a large part of one well. the whole affair is starting to smell like a scam.
disclosure: i hold some canadian superior and challenger energy(also in bankruptcy). i haven't lost any money on these non performers, but i didnt buy and hold either.
Canadian Superior is an example of why people and companies in debt suffer the most in a recession or depression (take your pick as to which the Panic of 2008 is). This is why I only invest in private-equity junior petes that run on cash flow or at least have sufficient cash reserves to finish a project.
The problem isn't just Peak Oil, it's also Peak Credit.
I think Peak Credit is the real issue. It affects everything--not just oil and gas.
anybody see this yet ?
“Palin to resign as Alaska governor”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31726640?GT1=43001
I saw that too. The WSJ is saying that state politics was making her work there increasingly difficult. Also, she may be thinking she can run for President, and use the longer time to get ready--although this seems strange.
strange and contrary to her stated reason for resigning. i thought she would appoint herself to be replacement senator for stevens but the voters made that a mute point.
ok, i see now that her aids are making statements that make it a reasonabe possibility. the kkkarl rove pole machine has probably been busy churning out poles that pose questions to get the response they want.
I am seeing rumors of pending Federal indictments. Something to do with embezzlement..
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7280
Get out the butter - she's toast..
Not at all. Odds are her PAC has the most cash it'll ever see so she's cashing out the tax free money.
I would not hire Palin to mow the dog catcher's lawn in even the smallest municipality.
President is right out of the question.
She is out of her depth in a parking lot puddle.
There are many, many intelligent people in the world who could make a positive difference in business, science, politics, government, academia, and community organizing, but she is not one of them.
She oversees programs to shoot wolves from helicopters and to poison the pups in their dens, all to service the great white hunters looking to bag trophy Elk etc. She is a disgusting human just for her treatment of other non-human creatures.
Maybe she could be President of the AIP.
re: Eager to Tap Iraq's Vast Oil Reserves, Industry Execs Suggested Invasion
“The advisory committee that helped prepare the report included Luis Giusti, a Shell Corp. non-executive director; John Manzoni, regional president of British Petroleum; and David O'Reilly, chief executive of ChevronTexaco.
James Baker, the namesake for the public policy institute, was a prominent oil industry lawyer who also served as secretary of state under President George H.W. Bush, and was counsel to the Bush/Cheney campaign during the Florida recount in 2000.
Ken Lay, then-chairman of the energy trading Enron Corp., also made recommendations that were included in the Baker report.
just another dry hole for bush ?
talisman(now headed by manzoni) has been sniffing around kurdistan, a coincidence ? i will probably sell my few shares of tlm as soon as i can recover my investment. this is a different company than buckee started.
Was this the fabled 'Energy Task Force' of Cheney's that we never got any FOIA love from?.. or was it just one of the breakout meetings from the Task Force?
Come now, anyone not aware of Oil Slick Dicks motives is incredibly gullible, and should not be allowed to participate in this wonderful democratic experiment.
Sarcasm off-- but really, did anyone think anything else? This is a bunch of elite's fighting over the dregs of resources, playing the last man standing routine.
http://www.alternet.org/environment/140912/thanks_to_our_fossil_fuel_add...
Maybe Gaia will make us go away.
U.S. Climate Impacts Report ...
The most comprehensive, authoritative report on Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States was released on Tuesday June 16th, 2009. This report presents, in plain language, the science and impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It focuses on climate change impacts on U.S. regions and various aspects of society and the economy such as energy, water, agriculture, and health. A comprehensive series of web-pages were developed that highlight the findings and major conclusions of the report and contain complete downloadable files of the report, as well as a host of additional content on climate change impacts on the U.S
http://www.globalchange.gov/
Key Findings .. plus full report
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/...
Wow, that is a very dire report.
It would appear that BigAg is in for a very rough time. And all lifeforms as well.
Heavy rains in the spring, drier conditions in the summer, less colder temps in the winter. This is a perfect recipe for insect life however but bad for the crops, very bad.
I checked both the Southeast and Midwest..both are going to be getting about the same.
Dire, very dire it seems to me from a quick scan. The number of days with temps over 90 degrees has increased markedly from viewing the graphics for the Southeast. From the 1960s to 2080 the number of days over 90 appear to double...from 60 to about 120.
Airdale
I'm toying with the idea of starting a long, slow project building an earth-sheltered home in the idle hours (yeah, right) left over from getting the homestead up and running. Same goes for some kind of earth-sheltered green houses.
Long-term project, tho', so no rush less an abrupt climate shift.
Of course, all that requires land that can be dug into...
Cheers
Delete, wrong thread.