DrumBeat: June 23, 2009
Posted by Leanan on June 23, 2009 - 10:15am
IEA says potential for oil supply crunch by 2014
NEW YORK -- Oil markets may face a supply crunch by 2014 if global GDP growth hits 5% in the coming years, the head of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday."If economic GDP growth gradually rises through 2011 and 2012 ... then oil demand will come back and by 2014 you will maybe have a supply crunch," Nobuo Tanaka said at the Renewable Energy Finance Forum in New York, noting economic growth would have be around 5%.
The global economic crisis has battered fuel demand, knocking crude off record peaks near US$150 a barrel hit last July and causing inventories to swell.
Energy investment to lag further: IEA
Recession will cut investments in the energy supply sector in 2009 by more than the $100-billion (U.S.) quoted in the International Energy Agency's report released in May, its chief economist said on Tuesday.The agency, adviser to 28 industrialized countries, said in a report presented to the G8 energy ministers in May that oil and gas upstream investment would fall 21 per cent, or about $100-billion in 2009 from 2008 due to the global recession.
“The information that we are getting... may well mean that we are going to revise the numbers downwards,” Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview.
OPEC, EU say regulation needed to stop oil bubble
VIENNA (Reuters) - Oil markets risk another speculative bubble unless the financial sector is reformed and transparency increased, but prices are not yet a threat to economic recovery, the EU and OPEC said after joint talks on Tuesday.
Eni declares force majeure on Brass River crude
MILAN (Reuters) - Italian oil and gas company Eni SpA has declared force majeure on crude oil exports from Nigeria's Brass River, a company spokesman said on Tuesday.
Iran election turmoil bad news for oil sector
Political uncertainty and unrest in the wake of Iran's disputed presidential election are casting a deeper pall on the country's prospects of a near-term economic recovery, with the vital oil sector likely to witness a stasis it can ill afford amid faltering production and investments.
BG Closes Buenos Aires Office, Says Will Keep Assets
(Bloomberg) -- BG Group Plc, the U.K.’s third- largest natural-gas producer, plans to close its Buenos Aires office after its Argentine unit filed for protection against creditors earlier this month.BG will “maintain its interests” in MetroGAS, the supplier of about 2 million customers in Buenos Aires, Edel McCaffrey, a spokeswoman for Reading, England-based BG, said late yesterday in an e-mailed statement. The company said it will retain gas distribution and pipeline assets in Argentina and that it is closing the local office to “reduce costs.”
Union leaders meeting with employers over UK refinery strike
LONDON (AP) — Union leaders met with construction bosses Tuesday in an effort to resolve an acrimonious industrial dispute that has led to walkouts across the British energy sector.The UNITE union said it was in talks with the companies contracted to work at Total's Lindsey Oil Refinery in northern England, where more than 600 workers were fired after staging unauthorized strikes over job losses.
Solar, Wind Power Loan Guarantees to Begin in July, U.S. Says
(Bloomberg) -- Renewable energy loan guarantees of as much as $18.6 billion will begin to be delivered in July, said David Frantz, director of the program at the U.S. Energy Department.Energy Department officials are preparing to release rules for solar, wind and geothermal energy developers seeking the funds by next month, Frantz said today at the Renewable Energy Finance Forum in New York.
New Jersey, Delaware Coastal Wind Projects Get Leases
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Interior Department approved five exploratory leases for wind power projects off the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware that would be capable of generating electricity for more than 1 million homes.“This is a very important first, huge step,” Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said at a press conference today in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Altogether, the projects proposed could generate 1,500 megawatts of power, Salazar said.
Michael T. Klare: Tithing at the Crude Altar
PRESIDENT BARACK Obama has often stated that one of his highest priorities is to vanquish the “tyranny of oil” by developing alternative sources of energy and substantially reducing America’s reliance on imported petroleum. But we will not be energy independent for the next thirty to forty years, even with a strong push to increase energy efficiency and spur the development of petroleum alternatives. During this time, America will remain dependent on oil derived from authoritarian regimes, weak states and nations in the midst of civil war.Less and less crude will come from reliable suppliers in the Western Hemisphere. Given our continued dependence on imported oil, picking and choosing among our suppliers obviously would be ideal. But this is not an option. The oil market is thoroughly internationalized. Key traders draw on multiple sources of crude to satisfy the needs of refiners and retailers. Most importantly, a majority of the world’s remaining oil is controlled by countries that are not democracies, do not honor the rule of law and are certainly not noted for their pristine human-rights behavior. If anything, our reliance on these producers is likely to grow as output in the older producing areas of the Western Hemisphere declines and more and more of the world’s output is concentrated in Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union.
Peak oil - coming soon, but when?
For some five decades, Saudi Arabia managed to make the world believe that it was a cornucopia of oil. It also managed to convince people that it had some "aces up its sleeve", in the form of geologically promising rock formations which had not been drilled. The writer remembers this very clearly, beginning in his refinery days, in the late 1960's.Indeed up to a few years ago, Saudi oil executives were still claiming that the country would produce 10, 15 or even 25 million barrels per day of crude oil for the next 50 years! This was despite the fact that it had never produced much more than 10 million and is currently producing less than eight million. All of these allegations were of course very convenient because (a) they got the world "hooked" on cheap oil and (b) they assured the country of US military protection against hostile neighbors, who were stronger militarily and, in some cases, more populous (Iraq, Iran and Israel).
However, all of these assertions have turned out to be somewhat optimistic. Most of the reservoirs which are still active today "show their age", especially those which have been producing for 50 years or more, and some even began to do so decades ago. Last but not least, the unexplored or underdeveloped reservoirs appear to be only "jacks" or "tens", instead of "aces". Only the outside world didn't know any of this until recently.
Interview with Charlie Maxwell (Part 1 of 2)
I would have to say that what struck me the most, as a surprise, is the virulence in the downtrend in the world economy. That’s a negative for the peak oil story, but only a temporary negative. By crushing demand, we are in effect gaining two more years, maybe three, in which we in the consuming world have added to our time before the peak, and could take good advantage of, since the peak is right upon us-I have it still at 2015 for all liquids. But, given the way we’re going about it, given the politics, given the direction of the world–like the Chavezs nationalizing all those oil service companies, and the continued Russian attitude–I don’t think that mankind is going to take advantage of those extra two or three years. And I think that when we get to 2011 or 2012, we’ll be right back in the supply-demand relationship that had looked so uneven in the early part of 2008, for 2009. As it turns out, 2009 has turned out to be a snap, but we didn’t know that in June of 2008. We anticipated supply-demand relationships that ended up not happening, surprisingly, because of the recession, but which we will see again, probably in 2011 or 2012. Then we will be back in the same position and we will not be substantially improved in our ability to handle it because we are doing just as many things now that are unfavorable as are favorable to solving our bigger energy problems. I don’t see any net gains. To put it in other words, “it ain’t hit us badly enough yet that we will put politics second and the problem first.” That time comes later when it really hurts us and then somebody stands up and says, “well, the truth of the matter is…” and then we will all say yes and get on with the job.
In the looming disaster of peak oil, countries are desperately scrambling to secure oil resources for themselves to the exclusion of others. An exclusive consortium of oil and gas producers led by Russia are entering into long-term contracts with select consumers like China and India, to corner the last remaining major oil and gas reserves on the planet. With the growing scarcity of oil resources worldwide, the last remaining nations with large proven oil deposits are banding together to gain geopolitical leverage. They, in turn, enter into strategic partnerships with preferred consumer nations.
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina /PRNewswire/ -- Oil prices have been soaring since 2003. In 2008, oil prices went up as high as $100, showing the vulnerability of nonproducing countries to dependency of the imports of crude. This situation forced Latin American nonproducing countries to reorient its investments towards the renewable energies, with the purpose of diversifying its energy matrices. The situation was different for producing countries with significant amounts of 3P reserves, because high oil prices increased their investments in exploration and production (E&P) activities.New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.energy.frost.com), Peak Oil in Latin America: Present and Future Perspectives for the Oil and Gas Market, finds that the Latin American oil market produced 10.11 million barrels daily in 2008 and estimates this to reach 11.17 million barrels in 2014.
OPEC Would Like Oil at $80/Bbl for Investments
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would like oil to reach a price level of $80 a barrel so that most investments in the industry can go ahead, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said Tuesday."We would like to reach the $80 per barrel, so that investment could be met," he said during a press conference after meeting with European Union officials.
Renewable Energy and the price of oil
How much easily recovered oil is really left? At what high-end prices are practices like directional drilling and 4D exploration financially feasible? At which low-end prices does renewable energy cease to become a financially feasible option?
Iraq to Earn 100 Times More Than Oil Companies, Minister Says
(Bloomberg) -- Iraq, holder of the world’s third- largest oil reserves, will earn 100 times more than the foreign companies it plans to hire to help develop some crude deposits, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said.Foreign investment will raise production and profit for the country and international oil companies will be paid a fee for developing deposits and not take stakes in Iraqi fields, al- Shahristani said in parliament in Baghdad today in a defense of the government’s energy policy.
Nigeria arrests nine gunmen linked to oil attack
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria (Reuters) - Nigerian security forces arrested nine gunmen suspected to be involved in last week's pipeline attack that forced Agip to halt some oil output in the Niger Delta, the military said on Tuesday. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the country's most prominent rebel group, claimed responsibility for blowing up an oil pipeline at Nembe creek in southern Nigeria's Bayelsa state last Friday. Colonel Rabe Abubakar, spokesman for the Joint Military Task Force (JTF) in the Niger Delta, said the suspects were arrested with 142 rounds of ammunition, two guns and a speedboat.
Iraq oil min in parliament, facing threats to deals
BAGHDAD - Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani was summoned to Iraq’s parliament on Tuesday to answer criticism about plans to award major energy contracts next week, deals which some lawmakers have vowed to derail.“We will not allow the Oil Ministry to move ahead, ignoring parliament and signing (energy) contracts in the first bidding round, since they are illegal and unconstitutional,” said Ali Hussain Balou, who heads parliament’s oil and gas committee.
CNOOC's new refinery aims for 90 pct runs in July
BEIJING (Reuters) - CNOOC's first major refinery in southern China aims to operate at near 90 percent of its 240,000 barrels per day capacity in July, rising from close to 80 percent in June, following its start-up in mid-March, company sources said on Tuesday.The high production target, coming along another two new refineries, would pile up supplies faster than the world's No.2 oil user can consume and force oil firms to extend aggressive fuel exports to thin high fuel stocks, industry officials said.
Petrobras to Refinance $5 Billion Loan in Tranches
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA is likely to refinance the remaining $5 billion of a $6.5 billion bridge loan by selling debt in tranches as it seeks to pay for soaring investments, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa said.
Steel pipes demand to exceed 1.7m tons in Saudi Arabia
(MENAFN - Saudi Press Agency) The Managing Director of the Saudi STEEL PIPE COMPANY (SP), Riyad Al-Rabee'a believes that the demand for steel pipes in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia exceeds 1.7 million tons per year.He noted that the specialized kinds of pipes are imported from abroad to meet the Kingdom'S requirements at the gigantic oil projects and for implementing expansion of water and electricity networks.
IHS CERA tracks downturn in upstream, downstream costs
A long surge in the costs of building and operating oil and gas production facilities has reversed course, according to two proprietary indexes. Also, design and construction costs of refineries and petrochemical projects declined during the past 6 months after a long increase.
Household energy bills could soar to £4,700
Families could be paying nearly £5,000 a year for their energy by 2020, partly due to the government’s billion-pound investment programme, a report warned today.The average bill could soar to £4,733 a year, nearly four times higher than the £1,243 paid now, according to research by comparison firm Uswitch.
Medvedev visits Namibia with eye on uranium
Uranium deposits in Namibia's deserts, which could make the country a top producer of the nuclear fuel, are drawing growing foreign interest, seen in this week's visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.The first-ever visit by a Kremlin chief on Wednesday and Thursday is expected to include a delegation of hundreds, with an emphasis on reviving cooperation in uranium mining and energy production.
The "cash for clunkers" bill just passed by Congress won't do much for car owners who want to trade in for a more fuel efficient model. If you own an SUV, though, you could stand to gain.
Boosting Clean Energy Technologies
In June, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced that the United States will invest more than $300 million in a range of clean energy technologies – including carbon capture from coal, solar power, and high efficiency cars and trucks."There's enormous potential for new jobs and reduced carbon pollution just by implementing existing technologies like energy efficiency and wind energy, but we also need to develop transformative new solutions," said Secretary Chu.
Common Sense Stimulus: Build a productive infrastructure before the currency is destroyed
Time is critical and common sense is essential. If the U.S. loses its tremendous advantage of having the world’s reserve currency, we will not be able to simply print money and force the world to accept it to service our massive foreign debt. We will be forced to build up our savings and pay down our debts, which will greatly slow our growth rate. With an aging, inefficient infrastructure, this will make the process of revamping and restructuring our economy extremely difficult.We need to rebuild the infrastructure of this country quickly (very difficult) and intelligently (even more difficult). Mindlessly dumping hundreds of billions into roads and bridges is not thinking strategically. We need a full-court press, all-out national effort to re-build intelligently and focus on areas with the most benefit. In addition, effective regulatory oversight must ensure open competition among market players in executing the projects. Unfortunately, our slow-moving, politically-motivated bureaucracy is more likely to dither away this last critical opportunity.
Rounding up the Retrofit Rollout
Let’s imagine that the current wind testing (at sites on the ridge below Mopanui and off Double Hill Rd) gives results showing we have the perfect wind profile for a 500 kW wind turbine. Where to from there? At our June 17th OERC-WEP meeting Bob Lloyd, head of Energy Studies at the University of Otago was very clear about the immediate necessity to construct renewable generation. Essentially, Bob argues, as we enter Peak Oil we’re entering an ‘energy crunch’. You need energy to build energy generators: wind turbines and solar panels need to be built now using oil and gas (in fact they needed to be built 20 years ago). In 30 years the world will have half the easy energy we have now and the climate change challenges along with population pressures will further complicate an already very difficult predicament: how to build infrastructure with even fewer resources and many more demands on what we have? Bob offers a clear rational voice when it comes to formulating action on renewables.
From a Scientist and a Writer: A Plea to Change Our Science-Anemic Culture
A plea for enhanced scientific literacy, Unscientific America urges those who care about the place of science in our society to take unprecedented action. We must begin to train a small army of ambassadors who can translate science’s message and make it relevant to the media, to politicians, and to the public in the broadest sense. An impassioned call to arms worthy of Snow’s original manifesto, this book lays the groundwork for reintegrating science into the public discourse–before it’s too late.
Transition Colorado (formerly Transition Boulder County) is looking ahead to a future in which climate change and the decreasing availability of fossil fuels may turn our post-World War II way of life on its head. In February the group launched classes to teach people basic self-sufficiency skills, such as growing food, making clothing and home repairs.The idea is that dramatic changes are going to force us into a much more locally focused way of life -- no more "3,000-mile Caesar salads," as futurist (and, some say, pessimist) James Howard Kunstler has said.
'Milking' Microscopic Algae Could Yield Massive Amounts Of Oil
ScienceDaily — Scientists in Canada and India are proposing a surprising new solution to the global energy crisis —"milking" oil from the tiny, single-cell algae known as diatoms, renowned for their intricate, beautifully sculpted shells that resemble fine lacework.
Dear Jim Letters: The Electric-Car Future
The two Jims have been friends for 20 years, but that doesn’t mean they agree on everything: Jim Motavalli thinks that environmental factors loom large and the EV revolution is right around the corner; Jim Henry thinks the inherent conservatism of American consumers will keep it a niche market for a long time to come. Here’s what happened when they traded off on the subject.
Club Pigou: James Hansen and Carbon Tax Aficionados
Mr. Hansen certainly proved ahead of his time with his modeling of global climate change. Is his also ahead of his time with his call for a carbon tax?
Activists plan protest at Massey coal plant
NAOMA, W.Va.—Environmental groups say they're planning another demonstration targeting coal producer Massey Energy.Mountain Justice and other groups say actress Daryl Hannah and NASA scientist James Hansen will lead protesters onto Massey property Tuesday to deliver a letter to the company's Goals Coal Co. processing plant in Raleigh County.
Peter Tertzakian - Demand: The other side of the oil coin
It’s no surprise that vehicle miles began trending down abruptly in the first part of 2008 as gasoline prices pierced through $4.00/gallon. Nor is it surprising that 2009 driving levels are now low, with US unemployment pushing 9% and with less money in people’s wallets to buy discretionary gasoline. Consequently, today’s U.S. vehicle miles travelled have reset back to 2003 levels. Looking ahead, as the economy recovers, there are market expectations that Americans will spend longer times behind the wheel again, pumping more gas in the process. Don’t count on it.In fact, going forward it’s quite likely that the amount of driving in the U.S. will gradually decrease and each mile driven will consume less gasoline. Suburbanization can only go so far and even diehard commuters have a limit on how much time they can tolerate wasting in a horseless carriage. The stats in Figure 1 clearly show that people were starting to moderate their driving habits well before oil prices shot up and well before the Great Recession started to bite. Today, in addition to driving less the move is toward buying smaller vehicles in greater proportion and those new vehicles are being aggressively mandated to be more fuel-economical. In short, the factors that amplified gasoline consumption in the 1990s are now starting to act in reverse.
Debate has raged about 'peak oil' ever since Shell geologist M. King Hubbert first outlined the theory in 1956. It's the idea that once around half the world's reserves of oil have been extracted, production enters a slow and inevitable decline that no amount of investment can reverse. Believers in peak oil argue that once it becomes apparent that the peak is near, or even past, prices will rise sharply, and permanently. Detractors say the theory ignores geology and technological progress.
Oil at $200 Means Fewer Chinese Imports, More Jobs
(Bloomberg) -- If Jeff Rubin is right, traders can bet on oil prices gushing to $200 a barrel. Everyone else will see “the 18-wheeler of globalization” thrown into reverse.This is more than idle prattle. Rubin is a former chief economist at Toronto investment bank CIBC World Markets Inc. He made a name for himself with his accurate predictions that oil prices would reach $50 a barrel in 2005 and $100 a barrel in 2007. In July, they topped $140 a barrel.
If you blamed the record prices on rogue traders and hedge funds, you were mistaken, he argues in his cogent book, “Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” On a planet with shrinking supplies and expanding demand, there’s only one place prices can go, he says: up. The recession brought us no more than a breather.
Oil slides on grim World Bank forecast
SINGAPORE - Oil prices slid to near $67 a barrel Tuesday on expectations of weak demand after the World Bank forecast a deeper global recession this year.
Oil Topping Out, Gas Prices Have Likely Peaked for Summer, Energy Trader Says
"We're in a topping phase" for oil, which means a "material correction" for prices at the pump, Schork says. In fact, the former NY Mercantile Exchange energy trader believes gasoline prices have likely peaked for the summer, which is good news for the crimped U.S. consumer.
Arctic Nations Say No Cold War; Military Stirs
OSLO - Arctic nations are promising to avoid new "Cold War" scrambles linked to climate change, but military activity is stirring in a polar region where a thaw may allow oil and gas exploration or new shipping routes.
Japan May End $1.5 Billion Venezuela Loan on Seizures
(Bloomberg) -- Japan may cancel a planned $1.5 billion loan for Venezuela’s El Palito and Puerto La Cruz oil refineries after the South American nation seized Japanese company assets, said a person familiar with the situation.The Japan Bank for International Cooperation, or JBIC, is reviewing loans for the upgrades after Venezuela took over Japanese iron and chemicals assets and fell behind on payments to oil-service contractors, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the review isn’t public. The refineries have a combined 327,000 barrels-a-day of capacity.
Russia to Fine Rosneft, Lukoil, TNK-BP, Gazprom Neft Over Prices
(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s competition watchdog said it will fine four of the country’s largest oil companies, including state-run OAO Rosneft and OAO Gazprom Neft, for failing to lower fuel prices when crude prices slumped.
Special Report: Global processing capacity trails advances in production
Global gas processing activity in 2008 remained flat, despite gains in global natural gas production.Natural gas production last year advanced in every region, as climbing natural gas prices spurred global production growth of nearly 7% (OGJ, Mar. 9, 2009, p. 64).
EDF Says Threat of Sanctions Brings Employees Back to Work
(Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA, Europe’e biggest electricity producer, said striking employees at nuclear reactors nationwide are “gradually” returning to work after getting letters threatening disciplinary measures.About 95 percent of workers who were on strike received the letters, and all of them returned to their jobs, even as some still declare themselves on strike, a spokeswoman for the company said by telephone today. She declined to give specific numbers and said the utility still plans to seek a court order at a June 26 hearing to end the strike.
Gazprom is king of the hill in Russian region
MOSCOW (AP) -- Coming soon to the stunning snowcapped peaks of southern Siberia -- probably the world's highest billboard.Leaders in the remote Russian region of Altai want to name one of the region's tallest mountains in honor of Gazprom, the state-run natural gas monopoly and corporate behemoth.
Ford, Nissan, Tesla to receive government loans
NEW YORK - The Energy Department is expected to announce Tuesday it is lending money to the Ford Motor Co. and two other automakers from a $25 billion fund to develop fuel-efficient vehicles.Energy Secretary Steven Chu was scheduled to announce the loan funding for Ford, Nissan Motor Co. and Tesla Motors Inc. in Dearborn, Mich., congressional officials said. They requested anonymity because an official announcement was pending.
UK powers up plans for world's largest electric car trial
The UK government will today unveil the world's largest ever coordinated trial of environmentally friendly vehicles. The £25m scheme, which is designed to accelerate the introduction of electric cars to the UK will allow people to take part in long-term trials of everything from electric Minis and Smart city cars to sports cars and electric vans.
Toyota plans fuel-cell car by 2015
TOKYO (AFP) – Toyota Motor, the world's top automaker, plans to roll out a fuel-cell car by 2015 in its push to stay ahead in the global race for green autos, vice president Masatami Takimoto said.
India to make energy label mandatory for cars
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Power secretary H.S. Brahma said on Tuesday the government would make energy efficiency labelling mandatory for automobiles by August, a move aimed to help energy conservation.
Wind could power the entire world
Wind power may be the key to a clean energy revolution: a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science finds that wind power could provide for the entire world’s current and future energy needs.
Areva to Double Output by 2012; Prices to Set Future Expansion
(Bloomberg) -- Areva SA, the world’s third-largest miner of uranium, aims to almost double production within three years by increasing output in Namibia and Kazakhstan to help plug a future global supply deficit of the nuclear fuel.The company, which produced 6,300 metric tons of uranium last year, forecast output of 7,500 tons this year and 12,000 tons in three years’ time, Sebastien de Montessus, director of Paris-based Areva’s mining business unit, said yesterday in a phone interview. Further expansion beyond 2012, particularly in Niger, depends on prices, he said.
Obama to push healthcare, energy reform
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama will throw his weight behind legislative bids to reform healthcare and cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions on Tuesday in his fourth White House press conference since taking office.
EU-UN Carbon Spread May Narrow on Recession, First Climate Says
(Bloomberg) -- The spread between European Union and United Nations emission permits has narrowed to near its lowest in 11 weeks and may shrink further as the recession erodes demand, said First Climate, a manager of carbon credits.
U.S. House Leaders Schedule Climate-Change Bill Vote
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on a proposed “cap-and-trade” law to cut greenhouse gas emissions by the end of this week, a spokesman for Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.“There are some issues still under discussion, but we are confident we can resolve them by the time the bill goes to the floor on Friday,” Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said by e-mail.
US draws line with China on climate technology
WASHINGTON (AFP) – Access to green technology is becoming a growing stumbling block in global efforts to fight climate change, with US lawmakers bristling at what they see as China's attempt to "steal" US know-how.
Mexico: 'Green fund' better than carbon credits
MEXICO CITY – Mexican President Felipe Calderon made a push Monday for his proposal for a $10 billion "green fund" as a more efficient way to fight climate change than carbon credits.
Debate rages over climate bill, but what's in it for consumers?
WASHINGTON — How much will it cost the average American household to reduce the U.S. share of global warming pollution and shift to cleaner sources of energy produced at home?
Under House energy bill, coal won't be going away
Washington -- Coal-fired power plants are the largest source of heat-trapping gases that cause global warming, but President Obama's plan to fight climate change would result in the nation burning more coal a decade from now than it does today.
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Matt Simmons is supposed to be on CNBC today. (Or maybe he's already been on.) I heard them talking about it early this morning, but couldn't stick around to watch.
It was pretty much, as usual, a circular firing squad with everyone firing at Matt, especially the economist guy. Matt was primarily focused on geopolitical factors, e.g., Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria.
The economist guy asserted that a regime change in Iran--bringing in a more pro-western government--would be bearish for oil, because western oil companies, if given access, would apply better technology, vastly increasing production. Matt replied that the Iranian oil fields were old. The economist guy replied that western technology makes "Old fields young." We sure could use the technology in mature regions like Texas and the North Sea. Perhaps regime change would help there? As I have previously pointed out, the Texas and North Sea declines were respectively attributable to the 1972 Midland, Texas based Communist takeover of Texas oil fields and the 1999 Vegan terrorist takeover of North Sea oil fields.
Anyway, Matt wasn't really convincing. You are right about firing squad, but presenting facts like that there won't have any effect at all.
I agree that it was not one of his better performances, but it's tough to follow up on a question, when he is quickly asked questions by three other skeptics. Anyone wonder why they don't have one cornucopian on, questioned by three or four Peak Oilers?
I liked 'Technology making old oilfields young' .. it must be the effort getting spearheaded by that new IOC, 'Botoxaco'.
Maybe he was under the influence, and old fields just looked younger--kind of how prospective partners in a bar look better after five or six drinks.
It may be said that Simmons doesn’t present his case in a way that would most easily be understand by the average CNBC viewer. None the less Simmons was saying much the same thing 10 years ago about the coming of peak oil and its effects on the world economy, and seems to be immune from the fact that many can’t grasp his message.
Simmons is also the first person I’ve heard predict that Iran’s oil situation would deteriorate fast because of social unrest (with apologies to any here who have already predicted something similar).
It’s rare that someone of his stature would be willing to subject himself to slings and arrows of bad financial journalism, but I am very thankful for what he’s done - and his mention (to paraphrase) that Iraq has not increased oil output after being opened to regime change.
No, it were not the Vegans that took over the Norwegian fields... it were them Trolls. Yes, them Trolls took over! Darn Trolls. And them Norwegians tugged them Trolls to the very spots they now reek havoc from.
And you spelled Commonists wrong too.
8*)
sounds like a lot of propaganda.
regime change back in vogue ?
western technology may accelerate depletion.
This is a useful (UK Government)site below showing up-to date (up to Jan 2009, which is reasonable for stats office) production for all UK off and on-shore fields. The decline is consistent if nothing else.
(I plotted out daily production and cumulative production in different scales, but can't work out how to post an image).
https://www.og.berr.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm
Matt was on at 7:42 Eastern Daylight Time. Here is the link to the video.
Global Unrest & Oil Prices
As I said earlier Matt Simmons is one of my heroes but I simply must disagree with him on oil prices. Matt continues to ignore the effect that high oil prices has on the economy. Oil prices begin to have a very devastating effect on the economy above $100 a barrel. And higher prices would, or will, knock the economy in the dirt. That is all explained on TOD Europe today: The financial return on energy invested
Ron P.
"yep, there's certainly been a lota of money lost in energy over the last 50 years"
I'm not sure i heard that exactly right, but it sure sounded like a sweet dig on some of the sunshine "green shoots babytalk" bullet point teleprompter psychobabble. Seems like they couldn't even even focus about the one blaring legitimate argument (demand destruction) . It must not have been on the screen.
Thanks for posting the link to that.
Edit - I disagree on your assessment of Simmons' ignorance on high oil prices effecting the economy.
I just finished reading "Twilight in the desert" and he seems to be very educated in finance and accounting. I doubt that he would ignore that effect unless he is trying to influence global economics all by himself. He's got to have economists working with him as a "Check and balance", or even just to hear another opinion.
SanDiego, please don't misquote me. To ignore is not the same thing as ignorance. I said absolutely nothing about Simmons being ignorant of anything. Matt however does ignore, or disbelieve if you may, the effect that high oil prices will have on the future economy. Simmons bet New York Times columnist and blogger John Tierney $10,000 that the average daily crude price in 2010 will be more than $200.
No, that will not happen because oil prices that high will knock the economy down, way down, knocking oil prices back down with it. Matt is sticking to his guns however and simply will not admit, or does not realize, the devestating effect that oil prices above $100 a barrel has on the economy.
Ron P.
I agree with you Ron, that Simmons is prone to fail on his $200-500 prognistications within some few years. The economic set-backs will oversteer this from happening. 2 cents only.
Ok, I'll say then that I misunderstood what you said. I'm still learning this stuff.
So what you're saying is that when oil hits a certain point, say 100 dollars / barrel, that the economy takes a dive, demand lessens and fundamental effects kick in, lowering the price again? So that it will not hit 200 / barrel anytime soon if at all. Kind of like a line at the bank; if there are too many people in line then people begin to walk away. It's self regulating in a way. ?
Does that make sense?
Well, I would not go so far as to say that there is a certain trigger point. Many things are involved. However I would say that the point, variable as it is, would be somewhere between $100 and $200 a barrel. And there is a lag effect. Last time I would say the point was just above $100 but oil hit $147 a barrel before the price, and the economy, really took a dive.
I don't know about your bank example. The economy did not crash because people lost patience, like standing in line at a bank and just got tired of waiting. High oil prices is like a tax. As people pay more and more for oil and energy, they have less left to purchase other things. The fact that other things do not get purchased means that corporations make less money. Their inventory builds up and they lay people off. This leads to even less consumption of goods and services and so on.
Right now, $70 oil is keeping the economy from recovering. If oil goes even higher the economy will shrink further. We are consuming two million barrels per day less than we did in 2005. That is about 10% less. That is significant. In China and India the decline is much less but I expect their consumption will soon start to fall also, primarily because we are not importing as much from them. This should keep oil prices low.
It is not as simple as less oil produced means higher oil prices. Many other factors are involved. One must look at the entire big and very complicated picture and then try to make an educated guess as to where oil prices are headed. But if one only looks at declining production and nothing else, you are likely to get it very wrong. And I think that is exactly what Matt Simmons had done.
Ron P.
Thanks for further explanation. I understand more about how this works.
The bank example was the only thing I could think of.
I now understand more about how when people spend more on energy they have less to spend on other things which slows the overall economy.
And yes, it is very complicated and Simmons is focused on the oil industry because he is a banker. He made that famous bet in part because he "Wanted to provoke people". I'm pretty certain that those are his own words. He wanted to raise awareness of the oil situation and in my view he has an interest in oil investment so he would stand to make money if there was more investment going on.
Thanks for the link to the video.
This was more like tag-team wrestling than circular firing squad.
Each time Matt would dispatch one attacker, the squawk gang would send in a fresh new attacker to try and prod Matt from a new angle of attack.
Example:
Attacker #1: Western technology will make Iran's oil fields "new" again (more productive).
Matt: Yeah just like it did in Iraq ... not.
[Squawk squadron leader to team: Pull dead body of Attacker #1 out of there and send in next attacker]
Attacker #2: Hey, aren't you the wrong-again guy that promised oil prices would go way higher than they did?
... and so on
"New forecast: 'Mass starvation'
Commodity analyst says crop failure would shock more than $150 oil"
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/?pageId=101581
"In fact, the major inflation of the 1970s was driven more by food than by oil,” he said.
Chicken or egg?
After cruising the farmers forum recently I found that many are perhaps caught in a perfect storm.
This is those in central to southern Illinois and those in Iowa voiced similar concerns.
This is all weather related. First the very wet spring and still some rain is occurring. Almost every one has had to go with very late corn planting dates. What that does is prevents the corn roots from getting a good establishment and weakens the stalk if hard winds come. It also means that if very dry conditions come then the roots have not penetrated enough to serve the plant and it can die...right now many leaves,and here in my area as well , are 'twisting'...the leaves due this to try to prevent water loss. It means they are suffering from lack of moisture since here its been in the high 90s for the last 7 or 8 or longer days and everything that was once very very wet is now very very dry.
But further with late corn planting then they are hard pressed to switch and start combining wheat. And with fields that they passed up on corn need to have soybeans planted by many have not even been able to start that.
So due to late starts many areas can suffer markedly. Again its regional but hitting many areas.
And one Oklahoma wheat farmer says the price of wheat is way way low and with very high 'inputs' , like 10 x normal when the price of wheat was then the same but inputs were 10x less.
Overall the climate change IMO seems to be disrupting normal farming(Big Ag) quite a bit in many diverse ways. I expect to see far more of this in the future.
One close observation. There is a massive,huge Elderberry bloom occurring in my region. Never have I seen such increases. The plants are everywhere and just ending blooming stage,yet there are very very few berries forming.
I asked a beekeeper about this just 2 hours ago and he said lots of fruit and berries are just not forming fruit.
In my yard the white clover continues unabated in runaway state and looking very closely I can see as many mason bees as honey bees and not very many at that. In fact none at all until this week. None. So my elderberry bushes here will produce almost zero and whats there will likely fall off.
Its like this..you get enormous spring rains. Way over the top and then a very very dry June...yet the 'averages' come out the same yet its very very different. But what anyones hears is of course...The Average Rainfall.
The rivers and creeks here are still at full bank..never seen that in late June either. Hardly never.
So what is happening to the climate shows up in nature if you look at it and don't just listen to the ocassional news blurbs...or in fact NO NEWS blurbs at all. City folk don't see this. They just turn on their automatic sprinklers.
I am already watering my garden...and its far too early but already the rhubard and wilted and died. Rather soon IMO.
Here is part of the intricacy of planting in a rowcrop venue. You want to find the depth in the soil of this field where there is some moisture. You set your furrow openers(I call them colters) and trash movers at just that exact depth in order to get seed germination.
It might be total dust up above but you want that seed to survive. But then if it comes a gully washer and too much moisture the seed rots. Not enough later moisture and the seed germinates but does get a good start...so the rainfalls and timing are extremely important.
Same with corn, and beans, wheat I think they still broadcast...
So small disturbances in climate patterns can wreck havoc or be very beneficial. I don't see beneficial so much anymore. I see more train wrecks over this latter times.
So the elderberry flourishes yet the poke does very little. Next year it might be different...but overall if you are close , very close to nature and you drive by the fields every day ..then you see something entirely different and with greater focus...much more so than the CBOTs specialists and their continuing attempts to sway the market and tell just what they wish. IMO of course for they may be angels on earth even...but I doubt it.
Of course it can all change very fast. I think thats more of the future. Nothing occurs with the regularity it once did.
I forgot that Indiana reported the same issues as central to southern Illinois. How much of farmers forums can one believe? But I do believe what I see here in my area. They might pull it off....
Oh and the Soybean Rust is once more out of the box,but now somewhat earlier than usual, and now again in upper Alabama awaiting winds to carry it further north and SDS is still not presented itself(Sudden Death Syndrome of soy beans).
Airdale-its not a diaster yet,,it could be, it could be just localized events,,,for those who wish to read it direct...go to
Talk.Newagtalk.com and chose forums Market...or Crops but most of this was in Market
Before I had to move to California, I owned three acres of land in New Mexico. It was in the transition zone from praire to montane, but mostly had prairevegetation. We had innumerable varieties of plants. The locals said that every year you have different species, depending upon when and how much rain fell. I guess that was nature's way of handling this sort of variation, lots of diversity of plants, and seeds that I guess could lie dormant until the right conditions came up. That is quite the opposite of monoculture, and I'm sure it is imcompatible with industrial efficiency.
Airdale,
If it's not a disaster yet,it soon will be,just give it awhile.Five years or less is my wild ass guess betweem rising fuel and fertilizer prices,falling water tables,growing populations,declining trade, and bad luck.Spell luck w-e-a-t-h-e-r.
We lost nearly all of our fruit crop this year to frost.At least if we get some heavy hail,which seems to be more common over the last couple of decades,we won't lose anything else except the gardens.
Most people have not the foggiest idea just how precarious the food situation is,worldwide.
Anybody who wonders and is informed about energy can simply double his personal energy misery index and he might have a pretty good food index.
Airdale,
Thanks for this insight. Our tomatoes have started twisting leaves in the past few days and we did not know if it was from lack of water or too much water. We water every day, sometimes 2 times a day, but temps here in south LA have been in the upper 90's (100 today). I guess the temps are winning the battle.
I was speaking primarily of corn but I think any plant stressed for water will likely roll its leaves to leave less exposure to further moisture losses.
Corn is a very good indicator of very dry conditions. Rhubard which like a cooler temp will also indicate by the leaves dying and the stalks shriveling..like mine are now doing in this 100 degree heat we are experiencing and its only the last week in June when July is supposed to be the worst and August...so if this continues the crops will begin to wither...Its a coin toss. All in the hands of the AGW genie now.
Airdale..I watered my cabbages and tomatoes to day. There is some moisture down below but I had to pull weeds and dry ground is hard to pull weeds and grass out of.
PS..The june bugs ate a lot of my grape leaves. Turned them to 'lace'.
The Democratic energy bill appears to be H.R.2454, sponsored by Rep Waxman. HERE is the link to the text. Click on the "reported in the house" version...
E. Swanson
[Hybrids, E-Vehicles .. again and again]
Somehow I have the feeling that the electricification of cars as we know them today (1,5 tons weight, more than 100hp and 1000km range) won't work.
Some days ago I've been sitting on this vehicle.
It costs some 2,500 Euros, and the additional storage battery pack another 2,000. (totals some $5,600 in todays dollars.) Total weight: 23 kilograms.
Maybe this vehicle will finally turn out as to be the beginning of a new type of car - just as it was the case in the 19th century. (Automobile technology was widely anticipated in bicycle technology.)
Maybe somewhere in between. I just bought a golf cart a few weeks ago. weighs a few hundred pounds, has a 5hp motor and a range of about 40 miles. Its legal on city streets that have a speed limit of 35mph and under, and can ride well on poorly prepared paths. Our neighborhood is conntected to the citys surface streets by a grass path so we can travel into town without going on any major roads. I can access everything my town has to offer by golf cart - the 20mph top speed and the 40 mile range isnt limiting in the context of a city car.
The best part is the cost of ownership. Cheap to buy, no mandated comprehensive insurance needed, no tags - just a one time $12 fee at city hall to register it with the city (which covers the cost of the sticker). I can see that changing once they get popular - so far in our town of 2500 people there are 66 golf carts and counting...
Its handy to have 4 seats, shade, a windshield from the rain (some have rain curatins for the sides) and its VERY capable on rough terrain. It also has minimal impact on grass and unprepared trails due to the large tires - thats how it was designed.
Maybe golf can have a positive impact - as the golf courses close down we can use the thousands of unwanted golf carts to get around cheap.
Battery recycling will be important.
The next step is to build a solar charging station for your cart.
Mine is three 12V 130 watt panels in series and controller to get 42VDC @ about 8 amps.
The step after that is 36VDC => 110VAC inverter. Power on demand anywhere you can go with your cart.
world record attempt for E-bike
Zero to just over 70 MPH, on a 1/8th drag race track
http://sports.webshots.com/video/3022713350100039462cROAeX
http://www.electric-cycle.com/
It will probably never happen with full size cars. Electrics are fully capable today, and affordable as two wheel transportation.
25 miles from one kWh, no license, registration or insurance needed.
Take your pick
The problem I have with full-sized cars as electrics is the sheer weight of the things. The extra weight means extra energy required to get the things moving, plus more raw materials required to make the things. And all that extra energy means you are buying a lot more in the way of batteries which drives the cost out of the water..
My gut says that electric scooters and electric-assist bicycles may be a more reasonable adaptation. The links you gave prove that it is here and now for those that want to go this route.
Despite the weight, the energy required to move a Tesla down the road is far less than a comparable ICE sports car, due to superior conversion efficiency. If battery weight can be brought down (=energy density improved) it will expand this advantage and end the ICE.
If we have reached the limits on what we can do with batteries (a possibility) then I would agree electrics would need to adapt and scale down.
That may be, but even now virtually nobody can afford a Tesla, while most people could easily afford an electric scooter as a commuter vehicle..
Exactly. And as we all know, time is short and money is thin.
Also, the increased size and complexity of full size EV's makes them far less resilient. I work with EV's and the thought of trying to keep all the thousands of Li-Ion cells healthy vs. a couple of simple lead acid batteries in a scooter is a no brainer.
For anything to make a successful dent it must:
1. Be affordable
2. Be simple enough that the owner can keep it running themselves
3. Be on the market now, or within the next year or two
Anything else is a pipe dream.
Have you had much feedback from RAV4's and their Nimh Packs?
I've heard some owners are doing well with these, but don't have a lot more info on them. (I know that Li is favored due to weight.. but there have been 'some' reports of well-designed Nimh's having proven their reliability, too.)
Bob
We haven't worked on any, but those RAV4 packs in my opinion are the best (as far as longevity, etc) so far in the history of modern EV's. Many happy motorists tens of thousands of miles later.
What else to say?
(Except, that I suppose there will be dissenters.. but I've yet to hear from them..)
There is the issue of the Chevron holding of Large Nimh cell patents.. which is the big "Who killed the.." discussion among the RAV4 people. http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1198
Anyone have knowledge?
Bob
It's not so bad if you use large format Li-Ion cells instead of building it up from thousands of laptop cells like the Tesla, but you're correct that counting on new battery chemistry to give us a breakthrough in cost or capacity is a pipe dream. The best I'm hoping for is some refinement of lithium with incremental improvements in durability and cost.
LiFePo4 has been constantly improving over the past two years.
When I started in the electric bike business two years ago, a typical 36 volt 10 amp hour pack was around 13-14 pounds, and often delivered only 9 amp hours in regular use.
Now, we have a regular supply of new LiFePO4 battery packs made with newer polymer style cells that weigh 8 lbs and regularly deliver 11 amp hours, at a lower cost, and with greater reliability. I use one of these on my electric cargo utility bike, every day, and it is holding up very well.
Things are definitely improving.
Morgan
http://Cycle9.com
"For anything to make a successful dent it must:
1. Be affordable
2. Be simple enough that the owner can keep it running themselves
3. Be on the market now, or within the next year or two"
Great thinking, obvious and should be stated more often.
I wonder about the charging end as well. Most people rely on grid power, not surprisingly in bad economic times one of the first things people do is take a hard look at their electric bill and try to cut it down. Anyone have any thoughts on what charging an EV for the weekly commute is going to add to the elctric bill? Anyone expect electric rates to go down? I know every change I've made to lower my use is eaten up by rate increases, fuel adjument charges, new taxes etc, so I use less but still pay very close to the same. Large scale solar and wind are still going to be metered out to us
and the buildouts may in fact lead to rate increases.
As always someone has to pay.
Don in Maine
Well, maybe they can afford them, but how quickly we forget on a hot day - most of the country experiences a periodically recurring phenomenon called "winter". During "winter", roads almost always have at least patches coated with ice or snow, rendering two-wheelers - especially fast-moving and/or heavy motorized ones - far too dangerous to be of much use. And if we can't remember a thing like that for even a measly three months, then it's no wonder longer-term issues fade out completely...
Even in winter, there are plenty of ways to use EV's and Bikes. There are many bikers up here that roll during the winter.. they might sit out the storm, but in a couple days, you've generally got roads again.
Then there's this..
http://www.megawattmotorworks.com/display.asp?dismode=article&artid=379
UW Madison Wins Electric Division of Clean Snowmobile Challenge
We get roads after the storm only because dump trucks with huge diesel engines pushing fifteen foot plows clear them off.
We've still got the big old drums they used to use to just flatten it down, instead.
Just saying that There's ways to use old and new tools.. and ones yet to be devised.. I'm not saying 'BAU' -God forbid, it's dangerous enough around here to suggest we might actually figure out a few solutions to a known challenge like Snow and ice..
But PaulS reminds us of winter like the Solar conversations that have to be interrupted with the reminder that the sun also sets.. please surprise me,
it doesn't preclude EV's and E-Bikes being extremely useful, even in snowy places.
Useful as seasonal semi-hobbies, yes. Useful for year-round transportation and commuting, no.
"in a couple days, you've generally got roads again"
In the mid-latitude and/or coastal states, maybe. In the interior north, not so much. Plenty of localities have cut way back on the de-icer, which means the snow packs into hard glossy glare ice rather than melting. Not something anyone in their right mind wants to ride a motorbike (gasoline or electric) on routinely, 'cos soon their riding will be suspended by a broken bone or three.
Anyway, if it can only be used intermittently, then it may be a nice hobby, but it's useless as a primary commuting vehicle, which is after all what we were discussing. People are expected to show up for work unless there is a lot of snow on the road - and in today's economy they may well be fired if they don't. For the present and near future that takes us right back to cars or something so much like them as to make little real difference. (Should we wind up back in the 18th century someday, it may be a different story. But that's another subject - we were discussing commuting, after all.)
If you can expect to use it for 3/4 of the year or more, then calling it a hobby is wishful nitpicking. Yes, to go this route, most would need a backup plan, like the gas car that gets used like the 'Emergency Credit Card'.. or a bus, or ride with the Wife..
But as cheap as an Ebike or EScooter can be, it really doesn't knock most people out of the market.
What's coming is going to require some adaptability. You're arguing like you don't think that should be necessary. Adapt or succomb.
There is a tried-and-true solution: tire spikes.
They are illegal in most states now because they tear up well-cleared roads something fierce, but if the assumption is an inch of hardpack on the roads all winter they will come back.
Even the lithium ion batteries don't give great range, -and they are expensive, and may not last the life of the vehicle. The great white hope resides in the various X-air batteries. I believe zinc-air is the furthest along. These can deliver more than twice the energy density of Lithium ion. But I think it will take several years at least to develop and prove these new technologies. They gotta be high density, highly reliable, have high operational lifetimes, and demonstrated safety, as well as affordable. Those are a lot of sometimes incompatible properties.
The Tesla is largely a rich persons toy. If battery lifetime is limited, and expensive replacements are needed, the cost per mile could greatly exceed gasoline ICE.
True enough. But I heard similar statements about the battery set up in the Prius (i.e., that battery replacement costs would kill it). The Prius has been on the road for a while, along with other hybrids. No major red flags yet. Tesla expects 10 years from its battery pack, though it is too soon to say.
Do you have a mobile phone or an iPod or a laptop PC that you recharge on a daily basis - how long do the batteries last before they barely hold a charge? Bearing in mind it is all similar battery technology does 10 years sound correct to you, or is this complete marketing BS?
As the saying goes 'question everything' or you will become prey!
I checked back with the Tesla website on this. They claim that at 100,000 miles or five years, expect 30% degradation in storage capacity. One commenter upthread alluded to the complexity of Li-ion, and it appears to relate to keeping the batteries cool and managing the charge state to avoid the extremes. Fancy footwork, for sure.
I'm not out to glorify Tesla Motors, but they have the first ICE-comparable BEVs on the road. Real-world data on their performance and potential is hopefully coming soon. It might be a flash in the pan, or it might point the way forward.
Battery lifetime for Lithium Ion is also based on 'depth of discharge' (aka DOD).
http://www.batteryuniversity.com/print-partone-16.htm
Basically, battery life (charge/discharge cycles) is based on how deep the discharge. Keeping the amount discharged small before recharging gives more cycles of charge-discharge.
I notice they only show lead-acid cyles vs DOD on the page, but I believe this principal also applies to Li Ion.
Its even more complicated then that. It also depends upon the charge/discharge rate (I think slower is better). I'll bet it also depends upon the temperature as well. One of the reasons you need a computer to monitor the things, and use them optimally.
It comes down to the eternal struggle between salespeople and engineers. One of the big selling points of the Tesla is the 200+ mi range, but draining the batteries that low is bad for long term durability. Toyota engineers can be much more conservative about draining the Prius battery because you always have the gas engine to move the car.
That's why I trust the NiMH batteries. I have two of them, one in a Prius, and another in a Camry. Not sure I trust the LiIons yet. I don't know how much of the LiIon push is to avoid patent issues? But energy per KG is at least twice as great with Lithium. That is not a big issue in a hybrid (the battery is IIRC 55pounds), but if you wanna go electric -or even plugin hybrid you gotta make the battery several times bigger.
Agree - I have an electric bicycle with a Li-Ion battery. I have had it for 2.5 years and the battery gives about 50% of its original capacity now - a replacement is £400 (!) and I have completed about 3000 miles. I make that equivalent to 34mpg with petrol here at £1 a litre - so more expensive than my 1300cc bike on fuel.
Li-Ion is usually lithium manganese. Those have a limited shelf life of 2-4 years, regardless of discharge cycles.
Lithium Iron phosphate is longer-lasting. And I'm surprised they want 400 pounds for a replacement. That's steep!
Typical LiFePo4 packs will go for $550-600 USD with charger, less without charger.
Todays DB holds these two stories from the UK (links uptop)
1- UK powers up plans for world's largest electric car trial AND
2-(UK) Household energy bills could soar to £4,700 (Quadruple of todays bill in 2020)
I reckon Article_2 has not taken Article_1's consequenses into consideration .. .. Feedbackloops anyone ?
The UK Government employs 'experts' to advise them which way to go as they are worse than clueless themselves - the 'experts' who know about EVs know almost nothing about houshold energy use and vice versa.
Experts are people who know almost nothing about almost everything! - yet they run the show! - In my experience it's the very few 'generalists' who eventually have to come to the rescue when complex systems fail.
In the UK we currently use around 112KW of primary energy per person per day, by 2020 at current rates the ~20% nuclear will be all gone because of one set of 'experts' and we have been signed up to a mandatory 20% reduction in CO2 by 2020 by another set of 'experts'. None of the 'experts' realises this means a depression should we meet all the targets. The 'experts' who understand the implications for the UK of imminent world peak 'net exports' of oil remain supressed. Don't you wish you lived in the UK? Sigh!
Is that the right link? It goes to a pedal trike at Zoxbikes.com.
Zoxbikes is the name of a shop here in my place.
Actually u are right - the trike shown is a HP Velotechnik 'Scorpion', which is even available in a foldable version. And the weight of the base version is even lower - 16kg.
All these bikes/trikes are really expensive cause they are manufactured in Germany (not in China ..)
I have a similar trike. Mine's a Catrike. Pedal only. Lots of fun and great exercise.
The one in the pic you posted doesn't seem to have a motor or a battery on it. Did I miss it?
Cool. My next bike might be one of those things..
I haven't seen a version with motor yet. I got the 2,000 Euro figure from the price list.
I could be getting confused, but I notice that a lot of houses that were supposedly sold earlier in the year are back up for sale. I thought that maybe these sales weren't finalized, but one place had a new vinyl fence put up along the property line a few months ago and a pond put in the yard. This past weekend I noticed that the pond's filter wasn't running and the vinyl fence was gone... replaced by a realtor's sign.
I guess the (ex)owner was fond of the fence.
I thought about asking a few people I know who went into realty, but I'm getting tired of hearing that "things are great. I got something you might be interested in."
Lost jobs forcing more out of homes
It's insane! If they allow people to keep getting thrown out of their homes how do they expect the economy to ever recover? These banks won't make money off of vacant buildings.
What's the plan here?
And how much money do you think they will make if the buildings are occupied by unemployed people who make no mortgage payments?
The truth is there is no exit strategy here, no plan that can possibly work. The banks are stuck with houses that are worth far less than the mortgages held by their unemployed occupants. Eventually, if the economy ever recovered to its former levels, then the houses could be sold but at a lower price. That, in my opinion, is not likely to happen because I don't think the economy will ever be back to its former level. It may recover slightly, before being knocked down again by high oil prices.
Ron P.
At least work out a payment plan that would allow for the (laid-off) breadwinner to cover the costs of maintenance/minimum bank services until the breadwinner finds another job.
Houses deteriorate faster when no one is looking out for them.
the foreclosed house down the street is now held by usbank forclosure assets management group. they are apparently renovating the house. i thought banks wouldn't throw any good money after bad at an hovel like this one. this property went through a sherrif's sale and the bank bought the property for the amount owed. imo, they paid too much.
and before the property went through foreclosure, it went through a flipping. i would be willing to wager that flipped houses are more likely to be foreclosed upon than non-flipped. the flippers are quite skilled at cover-ups.
Around me I've noticed alot of episodes of that really "advanced" realty gimmick designed to incite the kind of bidding wars they were so proud of a few years ago... The disingenuous realtor jerks have a couple tactics:
Jam a "Sale Pending" attachment to the For Sale sign - I've seen several of these now that are pretty much faded in the sun they've been attached for so long... just how long does it take to finalize a sale in this market ? It's all just BS - if anyone shows the least bit of interest in a place then all of suddent there's a "sale pending".
If by some miracle a sale does occur they attach a different, larger sign that just screams in your face that it has been SOLD !!!... Well, congratulation on that 2nd sale of the quarter - good job finding someone to pay (still) way too much for that shack. And by their logic the gigantic SOLD sign is a surefire way to sucker others into the "now's a great time to buy" lie.
Those "sale pending" signs could be getting long in the tooth because the buyer is still trying to get their present home sold. Lots of homes are sold contingent upon the buyer selling their present home, and in this market that is not an easy thing to do. Usually these contracts do have a deadline allowing the seller to get out of it and relist the house. However, what are the chances that they will find another buyer now? This is why these contracts also allow the deadline to be extended if both parties agree.
In my neck of the woods there's been an apartment-building frenzy over the last couple of years and they're still in the process of completing some of the developments. In spite of the huge promotional signs outside, with happy, smiley people proclaiming that 'now is the time to buy', the properties aren't selling all that quickly. They opened a new mini supermarket in one of the developments, but when I popped over there the other day to buy some milk it was all boarded up. I guess there just wasn't enough demand to support a shop of that size.
The housing market here in the UK was supposed to be in recovery, with sales up over the last few months. However, according to ratings agency Fitch the UK market is somewhat less than 'healthy' (whatever that means).
Negative equity hits one in six prime mortgages
Fake trees: not just for the office...
'Synthetic tree' claims to catch carbon in the air
I'm going full fledged doomer on this one. I am worried this thing will empty the atmosphere completely of CO2 and we will all freeze to death.
That said and I take the short version here :
If these people behind this idea do not understand themselves - that Clensing All the worlds Coal and Nat.Gas powerstations will yield much more per Dollar invested - I can't help them...
The que-word is : concentration , CO2 concentration that is !
GL -
Interesting. From the article you linked:
About the cost of a Toyota. That's a little vague, but let's suppose $25k, splitting the difference between Tercel/Yaris and the Camry or Lexus line.
$25,000/350 tons =~ $68.50/ton
That is at the high end of CO2 control costs that get bandied about, but in the ballpark. It would set the high end of the marginal cost curve, in economic jargon, and is available in incremental units. And the installed cost economics improve if you amortize over 10-20 years.
On the face of it, this thing's got a shot. If it is feasible, I would have to take back my prior statements regarding the absence of broadly available CO2 control technology.
One cost element not discussed in this article is storage/disposal of 'liquid CO2'. My first guess is that this cost is nontrivial. You would need a big place to store it, and the quantity would overwhelm any commercial application for it (like soda...).
I suppose they are thinking of pumping it underground. In an ideal world one would chemically transform the CO2 into a solid of some sort, but that would blow the economics out of the water.
You could store it at the bottom of the ocean... I think. At that pressure it should stay solid in place... I think.
Are you proposing to convert the WorldOceans into a humongous Club Soda ?
Don't you think there is enough troubles in the Bermuda triangle, as is ? :-)
If I were Absolute Ruler I'd have an ocean liner made* out of dry ice, then launch it and see what happens.
8*)
* - What? It's an economic stimulus work project.
If I read it right he's claiming that they remove 4 times the carbon that would be generated if it were powered by the "power grid" (although I do not see what assumptions were used in determining what sources that power was generated from). It would take additional energy to put that CO2 somewhere - anyone know how much?
It you put it in the ocean, can you avoid negative effects on the ocean (acidification, etc.)
The idea that it must be put somewhere is an extension of the fact that this captured CO2 is not bound up with anything chemically - doing that would likely require adding at least as much energy as was generated when the carbon was released. But captured CO2 is not the same as CO2 that is bound up with other elements in some stable molecule. Can we keep it captured for long enough to matter? From a climate point of view, it needs to stay captured for a very long time.
I fundamentally don't believe we can make the emission of carbon from fossil fuels "OK" by fixing it up after the fact.
Cost of energy wise, it probably makes sense to powewr these babies with stranded wind/solar, and only use them when the power couln't otherwise be used. But then you capacity factor would go way down, as you only got excess wind/solar occasionally.
The CO2 could be put underground -lots of it is produced with natural gas for instance. probably the first units (if any are ever built) would supply CO2 to oilfields, as then the cost of disposal can be replaced with revenue from selling the CO2.
Is not one of the problems the rising CO2 levels in the ocean?
Exactly how does that solution not result in more of the same problems?
Here's an interesting thought experiement. Humans currently emit ~27Billion tonnes of CO2/year. So you would need about 70 million of these machines to extract all of the CO2 that we currently emit. At a cost of 25K$/machine, it is only 1.7T$.
I need to double check my figures, but it looks like since humans started burning coal and oil in massive quantities, we have emitted around 800 billion tonnes of CO2. The density of liquid CO2 is about 1032kg/m3, so if you were to capture all that we have emitted, you would need a storage "vessel" that could hold ~800 cubic km.
Yeah, I was going to add the scale issue to my reply above. When considering anything to do with our use of fossil fuel, scale is almost always a deal killer.
That's a big box. Almost half way from Denver to LA. And the atmosphere's outer reaches go to 120 km, so we better start digging as well :)
It may be that we don't have to stash all of the carbon dioxide we have emitted, but your thought experiment hints at a difficulty with scaling this thing up.
I should also say, the $/ton number from my earlier post completely omits operating costs. If running it involves generating CO2, that's plainly an offset that would make it less cost-effective.
A big enough box that it should be a deal-killer for sequestration. Assuming my math is correct, of course :-).
All I really did was to estimate how many tonnes of CO2 one would need to remove from the atmosphere to get the concentration down to pre-industrialization levels - to cut it by ~100ppm. One probably wouldn't need to draw it down quite that far, of course, but the calculation is really more to show the scale of the problem than anything else.
I started here:
http://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/math-how-much-co2-by-weight-i...
which told me that the mass of CO2 we added is 8.2*10^11 tonnes. Density is 1032 kg/m^3, or about 8.0*10^11 m^3. Divide by 10^9 to convert to km^3, which gets me 800km^3.
A more economical and energy efficient method is silicate weathering. Just take an area with surface silicate deposits, and bust the rock up with explosives. Then over the next however many years, silicate plus CO2 plus water yields carbonate plus silicon dioxide. The cost per ton is supposedly pretty low, but you gotta find lots of silicate land no-one cares about. I think you would need to "treat" a few tens of KM**3 per year. A KM**3 if you only weather say the top 2 meters means 500KM**2 of land.
I can imagine spreading silicate gravel under and between the pads of concentrating solar thermal power plant mirrors, that would at least make them carbon negative. But I doubt the volume needed to make a serious dent in atmospheric concentrations could be had.
So we break up the land..then what? We grow gills and swim in the sea?
~800 cubic km is the volume of a cube with sides measuring ~9.3 km, not even close to half the distance from Denver to LA.
The proposal to mine olivine or serpentine and expose them to air to react the CO2 out of the atmosphere seems like a better idea because the fossil carbon is sequestered.
As for this quote:
The surcharge should be based on the fuel economy of the vehicle so that a fuel guzzling semitrailer truck has a higher surcharge than a Prius with low fossil carbon emission.
Doh! I should have caught that. Still a huge volume of course...
Forget About Iran, Canada a Bigger Risk to Oil Market, Energy Trader Says
ALSO ....
Obama's Misplaced Energy: Natural Gas a Better 'Alternative' to Power America
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
does this schork know what he is talking about ?
1st of all schork makes the claim that demand(for ng) has grown "incrementlly" for the past 10 yrs. well, not according to the doe:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/natural_gas...
consumption(demand) has decreased by about 1 bcfd in the past 10 yrs, this from a regression analysis. consumption in 2008 was essentially flat with 1998. there is a lot of annual variation based on heating and cooling degree days, but the trend is clearly down.
schork is trying to make the point that technology, yes the majic of technology, has managed to overshadow this demand "increase".
at the start of the vid, the interviewer states that gas reserves, yes reserves, have increased by 35% recently. unbelievable how the term rolls off the tongue of these slick msm types. schork seems to agree that gas reserves, yes reserves, have increased as the interviewer leads.
these quadrillions of cf of ng, refered to in the msm as reserves, may rise to the level of potential resources, at best, in a t boone wet dream.
maybe the claims of unlimited oil supply have finally been debunked and the unlimited growth bau crowd have moved on to the 100 yr supply of ng gibberish.
TSA's express security grounded
Awesome! I had the opportunity to get a 1 yr membership with that company for free given my platinum status with my favorite hotel chain, but I declined. Instead, I stood in line with the rest of the cattle. I couldn't stand the idea of some unknown company having possession of my retinal scan.
The inflation vs. deflation debate
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
The data is deceptive because it is a 12 month percentage change and does not reflect the recent increase in energy prices since about January '09. Of course oil prices are about half of what they were about a year ago. But they are nearly double up from the lows of a few months ago. The data proves nothing IMO.
Locally gasoline has gone from about $1.50/gal. last winter to about $2.50/gal. now. But the data show double digit declines in energy each month from January '09 through May '09. Ridiculous.
I like my postage stamp indicator better. It is not subject to as much manipulation. At 44 cents it is nearly triple the 15 cents of 1980 when I started at the Post Office. It reflects what is really going on for the average person all across the country and is easy to keep track of. It is going up and has never registered a decline in the nearly 30 years I have been watching it.
Don't believe government statistics. They are presented in a way to make the government look good. Picking 12 months is arbitrary. Why not pick 6 months or 2 years? Obviously because the data would not look as good.
Trust your everyday experiences. That is what is real. I see price increases everywhere. My most recent one was for glyphosate (generic Roundup). A few years ago I bought it for $12/gal.. Last year I paid as much as $40. This year I'm paying $45/gal.. Yesterday I checked a competitor and the quote was $51/gal.. That is real inflation IMO.
x,
I still suspect strongly that you somehow expect to get yours via the ethanol subsidy,but you DO have a VERY good point today.
I too have always found that PUBLISHED inflation rate figures have very little to do with my day to day expenses,either business or personal.
Maybe somebody more knowledgeable about the lies,damn lies, and statistics game will pick up on this and fill us in on the background of how this rate is computed and why it seems so far off the mark to the average guy on the street.
US to loan $5.9 bln to Ford, $1.6 bln to Nissan
Nissan will use the loans to modify its Tennessee plant to produce zero-emissions electric vehicles and the lithium-ion battery packs to power them.
With this loan, "Nissan expects to cut the costs of its batteries in half and ramp up production of 150,000 American-made competitively priced electric vehicles annually," Chu said.
Even Tesla gets 465 million
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090623/bs_afp/usautoclimatecompanyfordnissan
Leanan, I didn't see this posted anywhere.
As reported in Rigzone: Study Shows Expense of Finding Oil, Nat. Gas Soared in 2008
Sorry, it was on June 20.
Thank you to all you in the Oil Drum community - I've lurked and read and learned from you all for a year or so now, and had my mind expanded considerably!
I have a comment/question - I live on the south coast of England and, true to the comments here, have noticed many tankers sitting out at sea, which I guess were storing oil waiting for the situation in markets etc to change. But in the last couple of weeks they've disappeared. Maybe the weather's just changed (literally!) or some market forces might have changed. Any ideas?
I did hear that there was still this ONE Uboat that never accepted the Versailles Treaty.
(Cap'n can't hear so good these days, but he sure can shoot!)
Ze Berlin/Bakdat Railroad musst go sroo!
Jawohl mein Kapitän ! Bist du auch der Uber-Konduktor des Eisenbahn zum Bäkdät ?
Then to AJumble -
Yes I think you got that correct, oil approaching Dollar 70 probably closed some deals ...
and if I'm not very wrong that oil is already fumed away ... remember we are all living in a just_in_time world ..wrom-wrrrrrrrom
Saw Matt Simmons on CNBC this morning.
In the past he's always seemed knowledgable and open about his understanding of peak oil. However, this morning he seemed really strange. He was talking about a perfect storm of three converging situations around the World that could cause the price of oil to spike. The first was damage to the pipeline by militia in Nigeria, the 2nd was a an impending strike by oil workers in Venezuela and the 3rd is the people of Iran, he says, are getting ready to take over the oil ministry.
Then out of the blue he says, "Do you even know what's going on in Russia?!", but when no one baited him, he didn't elaborate with any more information.
It seemed like he was desperately seeking some manner in which the price of oil could go up dramatically. I wonder if its because of his bet that oil will go above 200 dollars a barrel in 2010, that's coloring his outlook. One person on CNBC asked what his sources were, and he said blogs, which he said are the only place he's found this information. The response was you can lose a lot of money investing based on blogs, and Simmons said, "Tell me about it. Do you know how much has been lost in energy in the past 30 years." I can't even figure out how that was related to the subject of blogs as a source of information.
For the credibility of the ideas behind peak oil, it would probably be best for him to stick to general concepts and information, rather than off the cuff predictions.
See comments up-thread about Simmons' appearance on CNBC, including link to the video clip.
About your critique of Simmons' performance: When you're rocking in that ring side critic's chair, it sure is easy to see how Simmons should have said this instead of that. However, if you were actually in the ring with the attack dogs coming at you rapid fire, one after the next, it wouldn't feel quite that easy anymore.
Even a simple one-on-one debate about Peak Oil can be quite difficult if you don't have all the talking points lined up ahead of time. Have you ever been involved in such skirmishes? You got to give Simmons credit for even putting himself inside the lion's den.
I'd say Simmons did pretty OK given the way the tag-team wrestling match was organized.
Step back, I have to cordially disagree. They gave him an open forum to talk about whatever he chose, and he opened with a trivecta of geopolitical potential oil price rising disasters in Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran. He could have talked about the recent latest update from TOD regarding Saudi oil, or any number of other data based projections. Instead he went for geopolitical predictions that came across as coming out of left field, eccentric. And don't get me wrong, I read 'Twilight in the Desert' as one of the first primer books on understanding peak oil. My hats off to him for his courage of trying to communicate a topic many don't want to hear about and for going on CNBC, which is very conservative. But it was not a very credible morning. Maybe next time he will be more on topic instead of trying to perputrate sensational what ifs.
Cslater,
Viewed the video clip again and you're right. It was Simmons who pointed the discussion to the geopolitical trifecta.
On the "IEA says potential for oil supply crunch by 2014" story, does anybody else think they are gearing up to pronounce on Peak Oil any time soon? Fatih Birol has been saying some interesting stuff for a while now including, I believe, "We had better leave oil before oil leaves us."
Maybe they are taking their responsibility to the people they are supposed to advise seriously unlike the US EIA. I pointed out in the "Petition" thread that the EIA has failed to do what it states is it's mission. From their web site
I would guess that Congressman Roscoe Bartlett gives them a big fat "F" based on his statements at about 21 min 50 sec into one(video warning) of at least 46 special order presentation he has done on the subject of Peak Oil. A few of the others are also available at www.energypolicytv.com.
If I were a US lawyer, I would be researching to find out if several industry groups that, have recently suffered huge losses from the effects most of us here ascribe to Peak Oil, have a case against the EIA. Heading the list of possible litigants would be the auto industry, followed by the airline industry and possibly even the residential and commercial building industries. To be fair, just about everybody including the government could claim to be a victim but, that would just be ridiculous.
Of course the EIA probably has a disclaimer in their reports that reads something like "The EIA cannot be held liable for any losses or damages caused by any action taken on the basis of any information or estimates obtained from this report". which in itself speaks volumes.
Alan from the islands
The IEA had been predicting a supply crunch in 2010. I guess they expect demand to recover very slowly and supply to not fall from it's peak plateau.
Seven months ago the IEA was stating there would be a supply crunch in 2012 if we did not address the problem. With the undershoot in oil price over the last year reducing exploration and development of new wells and production only down about 3% to 72 Mb/d (Source: "June 2009 Oilwatch Monthly" for oil production from January to March 2009), I have a hard time believing the world could produce 72 Mb/d for the next 5 years. The difference between the two rates (74 Mb/d and 72 MB/d for 5 years) saves only 51 days of production at 72 Mb/d. The IEA's projection essentially states that world oil production will remain on an extended plateau for 10 years. Unless Iraq can double its production during the next few years or the world economy declines, I am thinking there will be a supply crunch as early as next year.
It seems to me that every legitimate organization that I know of with either environmental expertise or a stake in public policy is now on board in respect to the energy crisis-excluding such organizations as may be reasonably dismissed as mouth pieces of those heavily vested in the status quo.
Is any one here aware of any legit(meaning able to pass the mouth piece smell test) organization still on the cornucopian side that I might have overlooked?
Of course there are plenty of legit outfits that can reasonably claim that technology will EVENTUALLY solve the energy problem,so any organization meeting my standard needs to have stated it's case for the positive in regards to the next 5 to 20 years.
So this excludes any thing that can't scale within that time frame.
Due diligence is reason enough to ask.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/23/perfect-storm-arises-to-s_n_219...
Along the lines of certain industries possibly suing institutions claiming huge oil supply far into the future, that are now suddenly all getting on the same 2012 supply shortage possiblity page, what about CERA? I remember reading a report of theirs about three years ago, where they claimed world oil supply would peak at 117 mbd! When the World hit 89 mbd (all liquids), it hit a production wall which apparently could not be exceeded, and the price went to 147 dollars, so how does CERA support that previous estimate? I say 'previous', because I'm presuming they are no longer peddling such grandiose expectations.
If you owned an American car company that is now turning belly up, and you had relied on CERA's predictions for supply growth like they were propping up for a number of years, and so you decided to build monster SUV's in response to those predictions, wouldn't you be really peeved by now?