DrumBeat: June 22, 2009

Global oil and gas E&P spending seen down 15 pct

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil and gas producers will cut spending more sharply than expected this year because of the slump in North American natural gas prices, analysts at Barclays Capital said on Monday.

Spending globally on exploration and production is expected to shrink by 15 percent in 2009 from the previous year, compared to the 12 percent drop the companies had expected in December, Barclays' analysts James Crandell and James West said in a report on their semi-annual survey of 402 energy companies.

Energy companies have delayed or canceled many projects as oil prices tumbled from their record highs reached in July 2008. That has erased about half the price in shares of oilfield service providers such as Schlumberger Ltd and Halliburton Co.

The day Five Points became a riot zone

Tuesday will mark the 30th anniversary of the nation's first gasoline riots in Levittown.

On a hot Saturday afternoon about 5 p.m. June, 23, 1979, Bristol Township police officer Bob Hairhoger was responding to an accident on New Falls Road near Red Cedar Drive.

What would transpire a few moments later would grab international headlines, result in hundreds of arrests and nearly 200 police officers battling with protesters because of the second Arab oil embargo, which dried up tanks throughout the country.

Related: Could it happen again?

Oil falls below $67

LONDON (Reuters) -- Oil dropped almost 4% to below $67 a barrel on Monday as a stronger dollar and weaker European equities outweighed attacks on the oil industry in top African exporter Nigeria.

Gas prices end 54-day streak

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The price of a gallon of gas dipped Monday, snapping a 54-day run-up.

Nationwide, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline edged down to $2.69, shaving just three-tenths of a cent from the previous day's average of $2.693, according to motorist group AAA.

Chavez asks Russian president to help hike oil prices

Venezuela’s President has sent Medvedev a letter, asking for Russia's cooperation in raising oil prices to $100 a barrel.

Chavez insisted in his letter to Medvedev that "big oil-producing countries unite," AP reports.

China leads energy spurt

Unprecedented turbulence in world energy markets in 2008 may have overshadowed a less dramatic but perhaps equally profound development in implications for the long term.

For the first time ever, the developing world led by China leapfrogged industrial and developed nations in the consumption of primary energy.

Iran gas consumption down amid protests

TEHRAN (UPI) -- The national oil refining company in Iran reports a 5 percent decline in the average consumption rate of gas in the wake of the disputed presidential election.

The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distributing Co. found from June 12 to June 19, the average daily consumption of gasoline fell 850,000 gallons to 15.9 million gallons per day compared with the prior week, the Petroenergy Information Network reports.

Iran overtakes Saudi as China's No.1 crude supplier

BEIJING (Reuters) - Iran overtook Saudi Arabia in May as China's top crude supplier, Chinese customs data showed on Monday, but traders said it was partly due to a supply cut from the Saudis.

Medvedev to Pursue ‘Bigger Mandate,’ Energy Deals in Africa

(Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will seek to boost Russia’s global influence and vie with China and the U.S. for control of energy and resources during a four- country African tour that begins tomorrow.

Peru's Congress Repeals Laws Behind Amazon Clashes

LIMA - Peru's Congress overturned two controversial land laws on Thursday that ignited clashes between police and indigenous protesters in the Amazon rain forest two weeks ago, killing at least 34 people.

The vote to throw out legislative decrees 1090 and 1064 could delay foreign investment in mining and energy projects and may prompt Peru and the United States to reevaluate clauses of their free-trade pact.

Gazprom says too early to talk gas cuts

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom is very concerned about low gas storage levels in Ukraine and the country's ability fo pay its gas bills, but it is too early to talk about cutting supplies in July, the firm said on Monday.

Wildcat strikes spread over Lindsey oil refinery sackings

Wildcat strikes spread across Britain today as another 500 contractors walked out in a show of sympathy for workers sacked at the Total oil refinery in Lincolnshire.

An estimated 2,000 workers from refineries, gas plants and nuclear sites failed to turn up for work today in unofficial industrial action after the French oil giant dismissed 650 contractors last week.

Senate energy bill?s key elements go beyond eastern Gulf of Mexico

Oil and gas trade associations applauded the bill which emerged from the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on June 17 because it would open parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico for leasing and development. But the measure contained several other elements which would directly affect the industry.

These included establishing a 30 million bbl refined products stockpile within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; requiring an inventory of marine resources off the US coast, including seismic surveys on the Outer Continental Shelf; increasing federal guarantees for constructing a natural gas pipeline from Alaska to $30 billion; requiring Senate confirmation of nominees to be US Minerals Management Service director, and repealing offshore royalty and other incentives in the 2005 Energy Policy Act.

Nigerians seize arms amid unrest

LAGOS, Nigeria (UPI) -- Amid growing unrest around the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, Nigerian security authorities have seized a Ukrainian cargo aircraft loaded with 18 crates of weapons and ammunition bound for Equatorial Guinea, the third-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa.

Kurt Cobb: Green shoots: An alternative view

I am seeing green shoots everywhere these days. But not in the places in which Wall Street's strident financial cheerleaders and Washington's happy economists are. I am seeing green shoots in the many cracks in the suburban neighborhood roads I now travel daily by bicycle.

Nuclear nations rush to lock in uranium deals

TORONTO (Reuters) - A global shift toward nuclear power is prompting countries to rush to lock in long-term access to tight supplies of uranium, and China and India look to be the next players to get in on the action.

Set the controls for the heart of the Sun

Here, in an innocuous building similar to a Seventies-style concrete university campus, one of the most important experiments in the history of mankind is taking place. If all goes well - and things are going very well - it will solve the problem of meeting the world's energy needs. More power will flow into the world's grids than we'll ever need.

Water for energy: The bad bet for biofuels

In the ongoing debate about rethinking America's energy future, there has been far too little discussion about water. It takes a tremendous amount of water to produce our energy, no matter how you measure it.

According to the USGS assessment of water use in the United States (done every five years), about half of all freshwater and saline-water withdrawals for 2000 were used for thermoelectric power. Most of this water was derived from surface water and used for once-through cooling at power plants. I will write more about this in the future, and the Pacific Institute continues to work on a wide range of water/energy connections and analysis. Today's Water Number is one little piece of this water/energy puzzle, but a remarkable one.

Nissan to make electric cars in U.S.: report

(Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co plans to launch production of electric vehicles and their batteries in the United States to tap low-interest loans for green vehicles, the Nikkei business daily said.

Saudi oil production at 12-month low

Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell by 320,000 barrels in April to its lowest level this year, according to the latest official figures from the kingdom.

A recent update to the international database maintained by the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), which uses figures submitted by its member countries, showed Saudi crude output at 8.038 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 8.358 million bpd in March.

Saudi Arabia - Responding to international crisis

The oil-rich Kingdom amid bleak global outlook is taking concrete steps to defeat the downturn. Whilst not immune from the OECD-wide recession and waning oil prices, the fallout is less severe than elsewhere because the state continues to invest heavily on infrastructure programme to support domestic demand and achieve greater diversification. The future, however, poses stiff policy challenges in terms of providing new jobs and basic services to a blooming population forecast to reach 33m by 2020.

Fujairah bunker premium up on low Iran, Iraq exports

DUBAI/SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Bunker premiums at the United Arab Emirates' refuelling port of Fujairah have more than doubled since end-May due to lower exports from Iran and Iraq, industry sources said on Monday.


Jeff Rubin, that is. When oil is no longer cheap and plentiful, our systems that are fueled by this inexpensive energy source will no longer be viable.

Iraq Fires Up Production from Nassiriyah Oil Field

Iraq has started crude oil production from a giant oil field in southern Iraq for the first time, in a bid to increase the country's crude output, an official with the South Oil Co. said Monday.

Nigeria: Report Indicts Oil Firms Over Energy Crisis

Nigeria appears to be the focus of an explicit report on the relationship between oil and gas multinationals and their host nations.

Published by the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), the report urges global oil and gas companies to improve energy security for communities in the countries where they operate.

Petrobras to Reel in More Rigs for Offshore Santos Basin

Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras (PBR) expects to bring up to four more drilling rigs to a prospect in the offshore Santos Basin in the second half of the year.

The ultra-deepwater rigs will be used to "attack" areas in the subsalt region in the Santos Basin, Petrobras' Mario Carminatti told the local Estado news agency. The Santos Basin is home to the Tupi field, the Western Hemisphere's largest oil discovery in more than 30 years.

High rural house prices fuel pub closures

The National Housing Federation (NHF) claims that 650 rural pubs and 400 village shops will be lost over the next 12 months as traditional British village life is plunged into terminal decline by the lack of affordable housing.

The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) estimates that 54 country pubs could close a month if current trends continue.

The NHF believes that the mass closures reflect a declining demand for services in villages where local families — the core customer base — had been priced out of the area by an influx of wealthy commuters and second home owners.

Wanted: A high-speed freight and passenger rail system

The US has to radically change the way people and cargo are transported.

Gil Carmichael, founding chairman of the board of directors of the Intermodal Transportation Institute at the University of Denver, reflects on what needs to done by the government in the US to avert future transport crises.

World’s Largest Solar Project Planned for Saharan Desert

If just 0.3% of the Saharan Desert was used for a concentrating solar plant, it would produce enough power to provide all of Europe with clean renewable energy. That is why 20 blue chip German companies are gathering together next month to discuss plans and investments to create such a massive project. Both the meeting and project are being promoted by the Desertec Foundation, which is proposing to erect 100 GW of concentrating solar power plants throughout Northern Africa.

Cardboard homes could solve Africa's housing woes

Hamburg - Building homes out of cardboard may be the way to resolve Africa's housing shortage and recycle precious resources during the 21st century, according to German scientists.

Prototype super-durable cardboard houses have already been built and are resisting the rain and cold weather of northern Germany. Enquiries are coming in from all over the world, and the designer, engineer Gerd Niemoeller, is making appearances on German television news programmes.

Solving our energy crisis without destroying North Carolina jobs

The summer months are here and as families plan vacations, our country continues to struggle with high energy costs. That is why Washington Democrats’ cap and trade—better known as “cap and tax”— plan is an irresponsible proposal that will do more harm than good. The simple truth behind the Democrats’ so-called energy plan is that it raises taxes, kills jobs, and will lead to more government intrusion in our lives.

Russian official says global powers will clash over Arctic

A top Russian government official on Friday warned that the race for Arctic energy riches would lead to clashes between global powers and said Russia needed to speed up exploration in the region.

"Our neighbours are engaged in researching technologies to build ice-class vessels and are investing efforts in building drilling platforms for the Arctic," Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said, quoted by Interfax news agency.

"This leaves no doubt that in the coming years this region will become a place where the global interest of many states will clash," Ivanov told a meeting of maritime officials in the northern city of Arkhangelsk.

Oil falls to near $68 as optimism

Oil prices fell to near $68 a barrel Monday on concerns over a weak U.S. economy and the dollar's rise, which tends to pull investors away from commodities.

Why the rising oil price isn't bad news for stocks

There have been occasions, such as 1973, where the unprecedented oil price spike coincided with a recession and had devastating economic consequences. And there are of course companies and sectors such as airlines, which are leveraged to the oil price. But for the most part a rising oil price tells you that, actually, things are going rather well.

$80 dollar oil could trigger a new recession

With the ‘green shoots’ of recovery more numerous by the day, dark warnings of a new spike in oil prices are also multiplying. Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi has warned that under-investment in oil capacity may lead to a return to $150/barrel oil, “or even worse”.

New research [PDF] by Wall Street energy business analysts, Douglas-Westwood, suggests that when oil consumption costs exceed 4% of US GDP, recession almost always occurs. And in general, a sustained rise in the oil price of 50% or more has always been followed by a recession.

Energy Stocks Will Surge When the Recession Ends: John Dorfman

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. produced about 88 percent more oil in 1970 than it does today. Production has been declining for 39 years since hitting that level.

When will world oil production peak? Many energy experts believe it already may be happening or will within four years.

One of them is Matthew Simmons, head of Houston-based Simmons & Co., an investment bank specializing in the energy market. His 2006 book, “Twilight in the Desert,” popularized the idea that Saudi Arabia has less oil than widely supposed -- and that therefore the world has less of the fuel than we think.

GCC nations to reap windfalls if oil prices rise: Goldman

(Reuters) - Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Russia could enjoy large windfalls if oil prices rose to as much as $63 per barrel this year and $90 next year, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding they saw brighter prospects for the Gulf Arab nations when compared with Russia. Goldman's commodities research analysts have raised their oil price forecasts to $63/bbl from $50.5/bbl for 2009, and expect prices to reach $90/bbl in 2010, given intensifying supply constraints in the hydrocarbon sector and a likely return of demand.

Nigeria output takes a dip

Nigerian oil production including condensates and natural gas liquids was estimated at 1.68 million barrels per day in the first quarter, the central bank said in a quarterly economic report released today.

China refines more crude oil in May, hits record high

BEIJING (Xinhua) -- China refined a record 31.19 million tonnes of crude oil in May, up 10.7 percent over the same month last year, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA).

The CPCIA on Monday released figures that showed refined oil output, including gasoline, diesel and kerosene, totaled 19.34 million tonnes, an increase of 16.7 percent over the same period last year.

Market analysts attributed the increases to surging demand as the domestic economy rebounded from its slowdown.

Gazprom in crisis

Gazprom, only a year ago poised to become the world's most valuable company, is in somewhat of a crisis.

Because of the financial crisis, the state-controlled Russian energy giant, in 2008 worth roughly $350 billion, has shrunk by nearly two-thirds to $120 billion, the Moscow Times reports.

Sacked oil workers torch letters at Total refinery

LONDON (AFP) – Hundreds of workers at a Total refinery near Grimsby on Monday set fire to their dismissal notices in a mass protest at the French oil giant's decision to sack them for participating in a strike.

Around 300 angry protestors gathered outside the Lindsey oil refinery at Immingham in North Lincolnshire, where they set fire to their letters of dismissal and lobbed them into a burning dustbin to rousing cheers.

UAE says opposes interference in Iran

DUBAI, June 22 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates, a Gulf energy producer, said on Monday that instability in Iran was not in the region's best interests and described foreign interference there as unacceptable.

Iran has accused Britain and the United States of interfering to provoke street protests against the re-election last week of its hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say They’ll Help Crush Protests

(Bloomberg) -- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the security forces will crush further protests over the disputed presidential vote, as the country’s elections supervisory body acknowledged some balloting discrepancies.

“The saboteurs must stop their actions” or face “the decisive and revolutionary action of the children of the nation in the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and other security and military forces, to put an end to the chaos,” the state-run Mehr news agency cited the Revolutionary Guards as saying today in a statement.

Fight On The Cape Tests The Winds Of Offshore Power

CAPE COD, Mass. — In the Northeast, it is not easy to get approval for a wind turbine that is proposed for a ridgeline or other landscape. But perhaps the biggest wind power battle in the region has been over a stretch of open ocean off the shores of Cape Cod. The Cape Wind project recently received all of its state permits and is awaiting federal approval. The Cape’s fight over what could be the country’s first off-shore wind farm is framing the debate in other places.

Rekindling Wood Energy in America

If not properly crafted, new renewable electricity policies will waste biomass energy.

New Zealand: Group to tackle energy issues

The transition town movement is a grassroots initiative which aims to tackle the twin challenges of peak oil and climate change by building local resilience, reconnecting the community and strengthening the local economy.

Over the next 12 months "Transition Timaru" will be raising awareness about the issues, starting with a film night on June 29.

Canada: Moncton urged to plan ahead

If you believe a lot of people who have been studying the issue, the point at which worldwide oil production peaks is not an unfortunate milestone coming in the next few decades, but actually a point in our history that hit in late 2005 or early 2006.

That's why Tim Moerman, a planner with the Greater Moncton Planning District Commission who has been a leading early voice in sounding the alarm in speeches and lectures in various parts of North America, took the time last Monday to share a bit of what he knows with the folks in the building where he goes to work each day -- Moncton city hall.

Change coming to Edmonton suburbs?

In the 1950s and 1960s, issues such as peak oil and climate change were pretty much unheard of and suburbs developed primarily as residential neighbourhoods, while the so-called “main streets” that characterized the more urban neighbourhoods disappeared, as people opted to commute to their work, shopping and leisure.

And the preferred mode of transportation for the suburbanites, of course, remained private automobiles.

Today, in spite of our numerous advances, it sometimes feels like little has changed — the city continues to sprawl outwards, and the vast majority of commutes are made in cars.

But that might finally be changing.

Australia: Group mixed about budget

“For example, the budget funds travel behaviour change programs but on the other hand Council continues to splurge on major road projects, and this continues to mean car use is so much easier than public transport instead of vice versa,” Mrs McGaw explained.

“Given transport emissions accounting for the largest proportion of household emissions and peak oil now upon us, it’s time to help the community realise we need every last dollar used for things like public transport” she said.

Hurtling towards calamity

If a giant meteorite were assessed by scientists to be hurtling through space in our general direction with a one in one thousand chance of slamming into our planet we'd be making frantic preparations. The probability might be low but the consequence so severe that people the world over would be pulling out all stops to ensure their own, their nation's and mankind's survival. Imagine the scurry if the probability of collision was one in 100.

The chances of climate change seriously affecting the world and man's capacity to feed and water himself within the lifetime of people alive now is much higher than one in 100. And the consequences for everyone would be severe, even for those who find themselves fortuitously in a valley of plenty. Yet preparations are at best relaxed.

Vt. farmers cut cows' emissions by altering diets

COVENTRY, Vt. – Vermont dairy farmers Tim Maikshilo and Kristen Dellert, mindful of shrinking their carbon footprint, have changed their cows' diet to reduce the amount of gas the animals burp — dairy cows' contribution to global warming.

Coventry Valley Farm is one of 15 Vermont farms working with Stonyfield Farm Inc., whose yogurt is made with their organic milk, to reduce the cows' intestinal methane by feeding them flaxseed, alfalfa, and grasses high in Omega 3 fatty acids. The gas cows belch is the dairy industry's biggest greenhouse gas contributor, research shows, most of it emitted from the front and not the back end of the cow.

Earth's coastlines after sea-level rise, 4000 AD

Predicted effects on US coastline at 2 metres sea level rise (red) and 25 meters sea level rise (yellow).

Even if we could freeze-frame the atmosphere as it is today, sea levels would still rise by 25 metres, says the latest study into the effects of climate change on melting ice sheets.

It is my belief that the government knows within a few ounces how much oil is in the ground and what the ramifications are when we run out. I further think that Obama is also well aware of this fact. The explanation for not telling the world is that Obama needs the economy to rebound so that he can afford to make the transition choices necessary. After all, why go through so much trouble to do Health Care Reform if he is so sure his policies are going to put everyone permanently back to work?

This premise of mine obviates the need for a National Sciences Foundation search for the truth as the truth is already known and understood.

So here is my suggestion based upon the above. Stop spreading the word about Peak Oil. Let’s let the world continue its happy motoring along. It’s not hurting any of us who may know better. In fact, this whole policy of ours of telling anybody and everybody is completely counter productive to those of us who are naturally enlightened. It’s akin to telling all your neighbors that you plan to shoot off illegal fireworks. Sure they may come see, but other’s who you don’t want to see will likely be in attendance as well. Similarly, telling everyone you are prepared and have food stockpiled is going to become an extreme liability when those same unprepared people start to get hungry.

All of this spreading the word is only going to make the costs of solar panels, seeds, prime farm properties, and other necessary survival tools more expensive for the rest of us.

Make your preparations pay off. Stay anonymous and blame the speculators like everyone else. It’s for your own safety.

while you proposal may have merit, this statement is absurd:

"It is my belief that the government knows within a few ounces how much oil is in the ground and what the ramifications are when we run out."

or maybe you are just exagerating for effect ?

I was originally going to use teaspoons, but really, there is no unit I could use that would be correct. So ounces prevailed.

My assertion is that I'm sure the NSA, CIA, DOD, DOE, and just about every other government entity with a covert budget line has thrown a few tens of millions each on quietly producing facts. Wouldn't you?

I'm sure they've thrown some money into producing reports. Unfortunately, what generally happens when someone who's reasonably smart but not an expert gets called on to produce a report is that they generally collect the "current recieved wisdom" and restate it in their own terms. (Remember the "Iraq trying to buy yellow-cake uranium stories" that us Brits got fooled by which were then taken as fact by the American security services?) So whilst I'm sure they have classified projections that include some data that's not generally pubic, I very much doubt they have any secret accurate precise estimate, particularly if the people in various OPEC and other countries that they'd gather their information from don't know themselves (because of uncertainty in geology, uncertainty about what future technology will mean for economic extraction, etc).

No, the yellow-cake story WAS true.... I think it was lemon pie, to be specific.


I can vouch for the fact that in many instances, a government-produced 'report' is a synopsis of a 'study-of-studies'. I have been there myself (not in these 'limits' subject areas though). There is little new under the sun. The really good, 'original' works in these areas of limits-to-growth are likely deeply buried under very robust classification schemes.

When you look at what JoulesBurn has been able to deduce from a few grainy pictures from commercial satellites and consider the hardware available to NSA and further consider their ability to put people on the ground ot check facts, communications interceptions and conduct industrial espionage. I would be very surprised if the US government does not have a very clear picture of the state and future of oil production in the world.

Acting on that information is another thing, try getting any reasonable bill through the corrupted congress or even more corrupted senate, won't happen.

I've talked to enough connected people to believe that this is not the case. The government obviously has the ability to get very detailed information, and in real time. And they do -- for strategic military applications. But they don't put the resources into this type of work that they could.


Right on. Maybe the president ought to institute another cabinet position called the Bureau of Consensus which would be in charge of and publish the official story line(s). It is absurd to talk about the "government knowing" anything. The Speaker of the House comes to mind as an example.

It is absurd to talk about the "government knowing" anything.

Roger that.
We tend to anthropomorphize all sorts of whacky abstractions as if they were singular creatures with single purpose minds. They are not.

The Government.
The Market.
The Powers To Be (TPTB).

Truth is that The Government is a terribly complex organism with many players having respective different agendas, different ideologies and going about doing their own thing without first checking in with headquarters about it. (And as if headquarters actually gave a care about incoming reports.) Stuff happens. It is false narrative to retell the story as if there was intelligent design or an accurate database behind much of it.

Presidential Briefing Memo:

Dear Mr. President.
Truth is, we don't know WTF is going on out there.
And by the time we find out, if ever we find out, it will be too late.
Now what would like for lunch? Please check menu options below.
signed --The Staff

I guess there are really two issues: (1) To what extent do government officials accept Peak Oil, and IMO, more importantly, Peak Export scenarios and (2) As POAP's--Peak Oil Aware Persons--to what extent should we try to raise awareness of our predicament?

Regarding #1, my personal opinion is that most government types believe ExxonMobil and CERA, to-wit, that when production peaks, in some distant decade, the worst case is an "Undulating Plateau." Democrats, generally more focused on GW, want to transition from abundant fossil fuels to abundant alternative energy source. Republicans, generally less focused on GW, want to "Drill Baby Drill." Or, as I have put it, the Democrats propose to drive over the cliff in a plug-in hyrbrid, while the Republicans think that a Hummer gives a more comfortable ride as one drives toward the cliff.

Regarding #2, it's an interesting question, and I have in the past suggested that perhaps the most profitable course of action for POAP's is to unload highly energy dependent assets on the true believers in the Yerginite Community. On the other hand, I have been "somewhat" vocal and repetitive regarding Peak Exports.

In any case, cumulative remaining net exports, IMO, are being shipped an incredible rate. Using a 117 Gb as a most likely scenario for post-2005 top five cumulative net oil exports, it appear that by the end of 2010--18 months from now--the top five net oil exporters will have shipped about one-third of their post-2005 cumulative net oil exports. One third gone in five years (Indonesia shipped 44% of post-1996 cumulative net oil exports in just two years).

It is not really a matter of how much oil is in the ground. It is how much can be accessed, and that is highly dependent on price. If I had to, I could produce oil from many sources where the EROEI and the simple economics would make anyone think that particular drop of oil is inaccessible - I have places where I plugged wells because they were too expensive to produce, and I know where others have said that they did the same. If we have $147 oil, there is a lot more which WILL be produced than if oil is $30. Likewise, if we have $500 / bbl oil, there is an even greater supply. So knowing how much is there, or how much exporters will sell vs. use from their future production, are both price dependent. If my opinion is correct, both points are not quite moot - I am intellectually curious to know the absolute amount which will be produced and what the net export future looks like, but I would be financially curiouser as to the price in the future to know what projects I should pursue and what I should plug or keep marginally producing.

The initial 9 year declines for both Texas and the North Sea show that higher oil prices result in lower oil production.

It is my belief that the government knows within a few ounces how much oil is in the ground and what the ramifications are when we run out.

That statement is so wrong it is pathetic. The government hasn’t a clue as to how much oil is in the ground. The government is really a bunch of bumbling bureaucrats who get paid for producing reports and behaving as if they knew what they what they were talking about. What is truly amazing is that so many people, like you, actually believe that the government really knows what is going on.

So here is my suggestion based upon the above. Stop spreading the word about Peak Oil. Let’s let the world continue its happy motoring along.

The world will continue its happy motoring along regardless of what you, I, or anyone else on this list does or says. If you really think anyone is listening to you then you truly have visions of grandeur.

Ron P.

While I tend to agree with your point (I've said repeatedly Obama is clueless), if someone says "It is my belief.." the statement by definition cannot be wrong. He may be wrong, but the statement in and of itself is never wrong.

Paulus, you are nitpicking. You, and everyone else understood that I was saying his opinion was wrong. Of course you are technically right in that he stated that it was his opinion. I should have wrote: "Your opinion on this point is so wrong it is pathetic".

You remind me of a statement that was printed in The Boston Globe many years ago. Apparently this notice was posted in response to the daily letters they were getting pointing out errors in the paper.

"In this paper you will find a few errors in composition, punctuation and spelling. They were put there intentionally. Some people are always looking for errors in the work of others and we do try to please everyone."

Ron P.

RE: Boston Globe - I would add that they have done a durn fine job of putting what appear to be intentional errors there.

This is one lasting contribution made by Mike Ruppert in his Crossing the Rubicon. Cheney made a speech while he was CEO at Halliburton clearly indicating his knowledge of P.O. His energy task force had maps of Iraqi oil fields. 9-11 itself was the announcement of imminent P.O. and the US ruling circles' intent to intensify their fight for control of the remaining reserves.

It's quite out of the question that the intelligence agencies, and therefore the very top levels of gov't do not have a tight grip on this issue. For that matter, the same is true for ANY of the major players in the world today. What the oil companies say and what they believe are two different things. They are not about to provoke a bidding war for the remaining assets. For the same reason, gov'ts cannot openly declare their knowledge of this reality, at least not those who need but do not have. For that matter, neither can many of those that have but fear being robbed of it.

Good post, could not have said better.

Dear jteehan,

May I respond to just one part of your opinion? And perhaps another.

re: "This premise of mine obviates the need for a National Sciences Foundation search for the truth as the truth is already known and understood."

The effort to petition Congress and the President to immediately direct the Academies to do a "peak oil" study, including impacts and policy advice is described here: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49061.

The Academies (AKA the NAS for short, although there are three others included) - is a different organization that the NSF or National Science Foundation.

re: "The truth".

My experience is that who knows what is really up for grabs.

When it comes to "peak", people can "know" and still have massive, huge, gargantuan psychological reactions that prevent them from "knowing."

My experience is that knowledge of "peak" and, perhaps more important, what this implies, is really not easily answered.

People talk; they read; they study; they issue orders; they kill; they maim; they do all kinds of things; they do not tell the truth; they can say one thing that is true, followed by five things that are questionable...and still...what do they know?

It's very hard to say. I would not presume.

This past Friday I took the day off to take care of accumulated errands. Since I was driving through 8 towns that day I decided – out of curiosity - to stop by their town halls- er, I mean, “municipal offices” and ask what their funding plans were if the economy didn’t recover.

To maintain credibility I will not repeat the answers I heard.... But I will recommend that everyone try this at least once.

Let me guess; none even considered the option that the economy will not recover.

uh, yeap.

No one followed you out in the parking lot and wrote down your tag #, did they?

No, but one guy who heard the conversation did talk to me later out of the office. He said that these towns are still planing grandiose expenditure programs and are very encouraging to any developer who's interested in building more taxable structures that will fund these visions... but he thought it was all folly and doomed to failure.

Must build more stone heads to please our gods!

It's not a question as to IF the gods will look favorably upon us again, but rather WHEN the turn-around will begin.


There are solid indications that an upturn will be seen shortly. Stay the course.
(Note the 3rd Moai Head on our path ahead.)

MAUI: A Pest of a God.


He would nick his brother's fish off their lines with his own hook and they wouldn't take him fishing any more. Mum (Queen Taranga) was not pleased and sent him off to his dad MAKEA, King of the Underworld.

Maui came to a rather unusual and quite untimely end...

...Splunch!. No more MAUI.

Good food for thought, IG.

In a way, it can be paired with a similar question for any of us.

' Who has got an up-to-date will that they could put their hands on? ' (ie, how much are WE planning for likely yet undesirable events, such that it would help take care of 'our people'.. thinking outside of ourselves, so to speak)

I actually presume that a good number of you here do have wills, but even WITH the freakish demographic and agespan we seem to represent, I bet many who are smart and forward-thinking also DO NOT. Actually 'planning/preparing for the Worst' isn't a real strong suit around here. A lot of Captain Kirk mentality that says 'Death is not an option'.. alas!


I don't have a will, and I'm not sure I ever will have one.

I don't have any dependents. And I don't mind if my assets go to the state should I kick off unexpectedly.

Leanan -

Rather than having your assets going to the state by default, how about putting me in your will?

While the state would only piss it away on useless spending, I promise to use it prudently.

Or leave it to some charity, but for heaven's sake, not the state!

Sorry, I plan to outlive you. ;-)

I get it from my dad, I'm afraid. He doesn't have a will, either. (And he has a lot more assets than I do.) He sees no reason to pay a lawyer and waste hours of time just to spare me probate.

I honestly don't mind the state getting my assets. Both my parents work for the state. My education was courtesy of the Pentagon. I guess you could say that everything I have, I have because of the government.

I have had the opposite experience. The state has been my advisory all my life.
However, the State of California did provide my higher eduction, even if it was t make me unemployable.

There's no need to pay a lawyer for a will. There are several software programs which allow one to fill in the blanks and print their own version. While you may not have direct dependents, you probably have some cousins, etc, that might enjoy a little lift when you go. As for leaving your assets to the government, there's lots of charities which might also benefit from some of your accumulated wealth.

Also, if you don't write it down, someone else might decide what's to happen with your remaining protoplasm. Perhaps you would wish to be cremated, but the State might put you into the cold, cold ground.

E. Swanson

Both my financial planner and my sister the lawyer don't recommend those software programs. I suppose they're better than nothing, but they won't hold up if the state wants to challenge them. And probate being so lucrative, expect a challenge. (Neither my financial planner nor my sister will do a will. Too complicated.)

While you may not have direct dependents, you probably have some cousins, etc, that might enjoy a little lift when you go.

I'm sure all my relatives would enjoy a little lift, but they don't need it. I'm the poorest person in my family. My cousins, sibling, parents, aunts, uncles, etc., all have extremely lucrative careers, or have married someone who does.

Also, if you don't write it down, someone else might decide what's to happen with your remaining protoplasm. Perhaps you would wish to be cremated, but the State might put you into the cold, cold ground.

Eh. I don't give a rat's rear. Once I'm dead, I won't be in any position to care what happens to my protoplasm. They can burn it, donate it to science, turn it into terra preta, or boil it and eat it, and it will be all the same to me.

And I have to say...I have very mixed feelings about inheritance. On the one hand, I'm human. I won't turn down my parents' assets, should they pass to me. And if family members needed my money, I would want them to have it.

On the other hand, almost all the plans for sustainable "steady state" economies I have seen either ban inheritance or severely restrict it (via inheritance taxes and such). It's clear to me that allowing people to inherit wealth will result in extreme inequality in a steady state economy. The rich get richer, and if the pie is not growing, eventually, only a handful of people will own it all. Inheritance is probably not good for society.

I'm surprised that in the US it's particularly worth the costs for the state to challenge a will for people who aren't notably rich, particularly since they'll get money from taxes even if the assets go to someone else.

The only reason I have for not wanting my meagre assets to go to the state is that they'll be such a minuscule fraction of revenues that they won't change anything, whilst if received by someone with little assets they may be enough to catalyse some change in behaviour, eg, prompting them to start a small business. Of course, there's no way to know that that'll happen rather than (from my point of view) squandering the money.

I also doubt that inherited wealth will is a thing that particularly leads to extreme inequality: you only have to look at the various dynasties from 100 years ago to see most either do not have the wealth currently within the bloodline (even if the "company" may still exist) or the wealth is being expended significantly faster than it's being replenished. (There are other societal forces fostering increasing inequality, I just doubt that inheritance affects it much.)

I'm surprised that in the US it's particularly worth the costs for the state to challenge a will for people who aren't notably rich, particularly since they'll get money from taxes even if the assets go to someone else.

I suppose it depends on what state you're in. Here, I'm told they get 30% off the top if it goes to probate. They don't particularly care who gets the money, they just want it to go to probate. Something as little as a staple that has fallen out will do it.

And I don't think 100 years ago is long enough. The pie was growing then, via expansion.

One way around this is to make sure there is a joint owner of any substantial real property that you own. Then those items are not part of your "estate". If the remainder goes to probate and is shaved 30% so be it. All the joint owner has to do after you pass is provide proof of your death and drop your name off the title. I am not sure if there is a "look-back" period that has to pass between adding a new joint owner and them becoming the primary owner. (That is, the guv'mint might not allow you to escape probate if you suddenly add another name to the title of your $15 million home a week before you die.)

Of course, you have to trust this joint owner to respect your wishes while you are alive.....

I am not sure what you should do if you have mostly cash instead of real property. But, if that cash is not in a bank, who is to say exactly how much you have? (Make sure the people you want to give it to know where the strong box/safe is!) And I thought retirement accounts go to your beneficiary and are not part of your estate.

And there are certainly more complicated set-ups like trusts that will survive you and don't become part of your estate. These require legal action to setup and administer, though.

I was executor for both my parents wills(South Carolina). The govt. got 0$. It was relatively simple. The family lawyer charged about $700 with an estate worth approx $200,000. The key was a 'transfer on death' clause in the investment portfolio.

Inheritance is probably not good for society.

Living in a college town where plenty of kids are burning up their parents' savings partying down and learning little, it is easy for me to agree with this statement. Parental wealth has a pretty much perfect negative correlation with student effort.
It is an interesting irony that the Right focuses so much on "personal responsibility" but inheritance is both a cause and an instance of "personal irresponsibility", where heirs dispose of wealth they have no personal responsibility for creating. Somehow fighting the "death tax" and arguing for "personal responsibility" at the same time does not make heads explode with cognitive dissonance.

Inheritance and meritocracy are mutually exclusive.

The thing I find funny is that the wealthy will fight tooth and nail against any taxes of any sort so that they can keep the money for themselves, but then many of them will gladly turn around and piss it away on one stupid thing after another.

There are software programs for under $50 (Quicken Family Law to name one)that can help you prepare the appropriate documents. All you would need is a witness or a notary (depends on the state, I think).

Everything the state has it has due to taxpayers like me who pay more than they take.

As an estate planning lawyer I have to add my two cents to this thread.

1) for the most part, if you don't have a will, the state does not take your money. State laws provide who inherits in the case of no will (called the laws of intestacy). These are your relatives. Only if you have no close relatives does the estate escheat to the state. A state may assess an estate tax or an inheritance tax but taxes apply whether or not you have a will or trust, although your estate can sometimes be structured to minimize such taxes.

2) Any asset you have a beneficiary designation on avoids probate provided the beneficiary is still living. In several states, including Missouri and Kansas, you can even put a beneficiary designation on real estate and avoid having the real estate probated.

3) Quicken Family lawyer wills can be fine; however, in many cases when I have reviewed wills people prepared themselves using such programs they messed up on properly executing the wills (the rules are confusing) and many omitted to include common provisions that would have made the probate go more smoothly and more cheaply.

4) Even if you don't care who gets your assets when you die, you should have a power of attorney so that someone YOU trust can help handle your assets in case of disability instead of having to go to Court to get a conservator appointed and you should have a health care power of attorney to designate a spokesperson to intervene on your behalf regarding your end of life medical care.

My daughter and son-in-law are looking for a new place to rent, since their current lease is up at the end of the summer and their landlord won't cut the rent to match market prices. Talking to leasing agents, they noticed that most owners don't want to lock in current rental rates beyond 18 months, because they are sure that rents will be higher after 2010.

One town employee told me that he expected real estate prices to triple within a few years. The reason he gave was that the town was going to go green.

He sounded convincing... at least while I was listening to him.

I hope you didn't tell him/her you had food stockpiled!

My kitchen pantry was irrelevant to the conversation.

Lots of government layoffs and curtailments in government services coming, initially by local & state governments, then federal.

States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis

In Hawaii, state employees are bracing for furloughs of three days a month over the next two years, the equivalent of a 14 percent pay cut. In Idaho, lawmakers reduced aid to public schools for the first time in recent memory, forcing pay cuts for teachers. And in California, where a $24 billion deficit for the coming fiscal year is the nation’s worst, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed releasing thousands of prisoners early and closing more than 200 state parks.

Meanwhile, Maine is adding taxes on candy and ski tickets, Wisconsin on oil companies, and Kentucky on alcohol and cellphone ring tones. With state revenues in a free fall and the economy choked by the worst recession in 60 years, governors and legislatures are approving program cuts, layoffs and, to a smaller degree, tax increases that were previously unthinkable.

"Arizona Income Tax revenues decline by 55% in first quarter"

Quite a YOY drop and our legislators are arguing with our Governor about the budget (both are Republicans!).

Wait tell the Stimulus runs out!!


I got a kick out of our local newspaper which had a story about how the recession was ending and things were starting to get better. Then less than a week later they had a front page story about the fact that they had just set new records for applications for welfare assistance.
You have to wonder sometimes if newspaper people ever read the paper after it is printed and think about or remember what was in it?

There are both leading and lagging indicators - employment is generally a lagging indicator, meaning that it wouldn't be until a recovery is well underway that one would see lots of hiring.

Yes in Kentucky the governor et al raised taxes on both alcohol and tobacco. Preiously there was NO tax on alcohol. And less of tobacco.

Kentucky grew a lot of tobacco when I lived in Anderson Cty and had a tobacco 'base' on my farm and also there were 8 distilleries there.

So the backbone of Ky was tobacco and alcohol..and some good race horses.

The state tax plus the increase in federal tax on these products are putting a friend of mine out of business and many many others and not to even start to count the effect on tobacco growing farmers.

So then less business = less tax revenue BUT nooooo the state can't seem to frigging understand such a simple formula..no way.

Let them die off then..I guess and hurry the process of total PowerDown and DieOff as soon as possible. Our leaders are stupid beyond belief and their feet stink too(old country saying).


Yup. The turn-around is just ahead.

he he , brilliant . You saved my day. Thx Ignorant

You're welcome. If you try it, please be sure to post any humorous outcomes.

They are all thinking that this is cyclical, and that the upturn to renewed prosperity is just around the corner. This is the way it has been all their lives, they have been taught by "experts" that this is the way it always is, and that it is going to be the same way this time and forever more.

The thought that there is a fundamental paradigm shift underway and that the past is no longer a reliable guide for the future has never even crossed their minds. It is literally "unthinkable" to most people.

People will eventually come around to understand and accept that we are now living under a new paradigm. Unfortunately, most of those people are still in elementary school right now, and by the time they are old enough to move into positions that might actually make any difference, it will be much too late.

(For more on this dynamic, see Kuhn, "Structure of Scientific Revolutions")

I agree with all of this. The old paradigm runs quite deep through our society. People here complain about Obama or other people in leadership positions, but the vast majority of people in society have bought into the existing paradigm. At this point in world history, anyone who advocates radical change doesn't have a snowballs chance of getting elected to much of anything.

I suggested the following for Alan Drake's hypothetical election slogan (as a candidate from the Electrification Of Transportation Party): "Vote for me and things will not be as bad as they would have otherwise been."

The government line in Sweden is that it might get tougher before it gets better and thus we need to conserve financial resurces. The goverment budget is bleeding mostly due to lower tax incomes and higer costs for unemployed people but it is not hemorrhaging.

Manny municipialities has asked for government support but the priority has been on continuing the investments and reforms started during the budget surplus years.

My home municipiality is so far doing fairly minor savings, others are not as lucky but there is no panic, the municipialities that are hurting most are those that has mismanaged their budgets and obligations and they need to sweat a little to reform.

The financial crisis is so far behaving like an ordinary recession for most individuals and municipialities. But the GDP is shrinking fast due to large parts of the export industries having few orders. This has been somewhat countered by government credit guarantees for export customers regarded as long term credit worthy. But it is not a complete dead stop, the wood and paper industries has recently started increasing their production volumes and raised the prices on lumber to get more raw materials. Roughly half of the planned wehicle and mechanical industry investments have been postponed but its not a dead stop and especially the energy industries are investing as they planned during the boom.

Government financing for new reserch initatives, road and rail infrastructure, climate change and also new non fossil energy is fully financed and as far as I can tell we can handle a worse situation withouth cutting the long term stuff. There are also an increase is funding for retraining laid off people, the universities will be full of people this autumn.

The housing industry almost halted but a signficant number of large projects in the large and medium sized towns has been taken over and continued by municipiality corporations from our more socialistical times. Manny of them have been downsizing and selling off housing stock during the boom and now they had the chash to buy half built projects and completing them. A very large part of the building industry workforce is also changing over to maintaining individual houses and flats due to renovations and energy efficiency investments being made tax deductable. This also channels private capital into the ailing building supply industry while we get an increase in the quality of the housing stock.

The economical situation is slightly weird since we have had a significant increase in incomes for low and medium income people due to lower taxes during them boom and higher wages. Most people have jobs and they have never had it as good as they have now. Thus we get fully booked charter flights when there were bad summer weather last week even when our currency has deprecited about 20% to the dollar and euro due to the export domination in our economy. Savings are increasing but loans are also increasing, I guess it both is for people with bad economy and those investing in their housing.

In short, there are actually some green sprouts but nobody realy knows what will happen. Myself I find it very comforting that manny kinds of investments still are being done and that almost everything that makes sense post peak oil is being continued. I am sure all municipialities plan for an economical recovery and I expect that it will come one way or the other. But we are definatey not in BAU mode, a crisis is never BAU. However you can argue that we behave as crisis as usual like when we had a banking crisis, or lost major industries due to global competition and specialization. This crisis might become different but it would still be about handling change and investing for a new situaton.

"Cars are insured and bridges are over-engineered because the consequences of calamity are severe.

Yet Australians and people of other developed nations seem to have a mental block when it comes to the unsustainability of our way of life. Even small changes are seen as too hard. And government-enforced change is precarious in a democracy.

Are we doomed by our own inertia and intransigence? What can be done to create change?"

This from the article that started with a comparison to a meteor heading toward earth. I think we need a lot more of these kinds of compelling comparisons.

Please post your best efforts below.

Now here's another turbine design that might work in urban areas.


No danger of blade fly-off from the visual.

Interesting Link EB;
Strange that they've made their blades so floppy. I'd thought it was to keep the costs down (and likely is), but then their markup clearly takes care of that! I was checking out this BikeWheel instructable the other day, for a cheap, lightweight solution along similar lines.. only his came in at $80 instead of $4500 .. (less wattage, of course..) http://www.instructables.com/id/Ted-Baer_s-Bicycle-Wheel-Windmill/

I am intrigued by designs that put the Magnets out at the Perimeter to increase Mag/Coil Speeds without extra gearing, belts or such losses.. but I'd think this would also cut into its ability to respond to the lighter winds. I would like to find the DIY site I saw once where someone had put a large diameter Rotor/Stator on the base of their Vertical Mill..

Makes me want to go home and play with bike-wheels. It might make sense to see how the Gearless Hubmotors for Ebikes work in Regeneration Mode. Too much spinning weight out at the perimeter will also affect its ability to turn into new winds..


Mag/Coil Speeds without extra gearing, belts or such losses.. but I'd think this would also cut into its ability to respond to the lighter winds.

The 'flimsy' blades would keep the weight down, something you'd need if you are moving the weight out at the edge VS the center. I'd be interested in seeing the weight profiles and the forces on the outer rim.

Low winds - thats a simple nut to crack. Only load some of the coils.

A friend of mine sent me an e-mail about that system a couple of days ago. I think that Honeywell has fallen into serious hype mode on this one. Looking at the literature for the mill, the speed for the 2kw output is about 42 mph, way above that at which most mills are rated. At a more reasonable speed of 25 mph, the output is only 600 watts. They make grand claims that the mill begins to produce power at 2 mph, but the actual amount is tiny, given that there's almost no power available at that speed. They also claim that the mill would produce 2,000 kWhr per year, which might only be worth $240 if electricity costs $0.12 a kWhr, a 19 year payoff...

Worse, they apparently want to mount this system on the roof of a house. That would put the mill close to the ground, well within the boundary layer and likely to be shielded by nearby trees or other buildings. I could not verify their calculations, but the Class 4 wind rating is usually for a height of either 30 or 50 meters above the ground, with clear exposure (no trees).

I've thought about filing a false advertising complaint with the FTC on this one it's so bad...

E. Swanson

They make grand claims that the mill begins to produce power at 2 mph, but the actual amount is tiny, given that there's almost no power available at that speed.

Add to that the air gap that would HAVE to exist between the magnets and coils of wire - I expect the output to be sucktacular.

It is a design that can work in a city due to not having a blade to throw.

There is a Swedish company making a bid for utilizing excess manufacturing capacity if the car production shrinks permantly by making stirling engine solar power IKEA-style. They are tooling up to manufacture up to 10 000 units per year with mirror, tracking, 9 kWe stirling engine and all packed into a 20 foot container.

They could become wildly successfull if the car slump continue keeping the parts cost low and sunny countries have something to pay with.

I realy like reading about such local news, it makes me a lot more comfortable to see people actually doing stuff. Those people were freak news about two years ago and now they are setting up shop and the media reporting change from planning to doing.

Swedish company making a bid for utilizing excess manufacturing capacity if the car production shrinks permantly by making stirling engine

Back in the last century - some of the 1st stirling engine links I saw were for CHiP (combined heat and power) from Sweden.

I'll be interested to see if they get a shipping product.

I'm still trippen' on this
I don't recall much discussion about it here

Man, that's from Nov. 2007.

It is still an intresting idea, implementing it ought to be a good student project.

I heard this story on the way to work this morning on NPR. Vomit worthy.

Yampa River Runs With Possibility And Protest

Here's a couple paragraphs that were almost verbatim on the radio.

First, the powerful energy company: Deep below the Yampa lurks oil.

"It's three times what the Saudi Arabians currently have in proved reserves, and it presents a significant opportunity to energy security in the U.S.," says Tracy Boyd, a spokesman for Shell Oil.

The company has filed for the rights to divert a substantial amount of water from the Yampa just a few miles upstream from the dinosaur monument. It would be stored in a massive reservoir for future oil shale mining, a controversial and still unproven technology. Shell says it wants to inject the water into the ground to unlock oil from shale.

"This is a long-term commitment to prudently and slowly and properly address all the technical questions and environmental and social questions about oil shale development, so it can be done the right way, at the right time," Boyd says.

... ok, just more shale oil, move on! next !

It looks like Shell, for one, doesn't care about climate change due to CO2, or the envirnoment in general.

yampa river valley is my candidate for the most beautiful on earth. but the people who live in this area are borderline, imo. they have an ordinance in yampa that says a customer can't stand while drinking at the bar. i couldn't stand the bar long enough to finish my beer or maybe they threw me out, the memories have faded.

do they still have separate bars for men, women and couples in canada ?

I think British Columbia was the last province with separate entrances and bars for men and women. That ended circa 1975.

Finally Barack Obama is starting to get called out on his blatant facilitation of fraud and corruption-Bill Maher recently and now Kunstler-from Kunstler's essay today:

Notice the two words largely absent from whatever public discussion exists around these matters -- "swindle" and "fraud." The reason they're missing is because if they happened to enter the conversation, something would have to be done about them, namely investigations and prosecutions. The president is the person in the best position to set the terms of this public discussion, and by avoiding these two words he's blowing the chance to begin the process of correcting the tragic course we're on.

I had to check the url, as I thought I had somehow wound up on Denninger's site instead of CF Nation. Denninger has been ranting about this for a couple of years now. In fact, the two sites are on the same wavelength today, as Denninger has another piece on sending the perps to jail today.

It looks like the Charisma President will not have the success that the Teflon President enjoyed. The media could not tear down Reagan, and they will fail in propping up Pretty Boy Obama.

My bet: Treason Trials (or, inabstenia war crime tribunals by foreign countries) for the following in less than a decade:

Obama, Bush, Clinton
Greenspan, Bernanke and a handful of other fed governors
Paulson, Geithner, Rubin ...


( BTW - Mish actually mentioned Peak Oil today and another blogger - TheMessThatGreensanMade.com - mentioned it about a week ago - sorry, did not save the link...)

My bet: Treason Trials

As someone said upthread "build more stone heads".

The only way I see your prediction happening is if others who would loose power think that by tossing others under a bus or 2 will save them what they have.

I just don't see it happening, sorry.

I think you're right that it's not very probable, or at least seems improbable, right now.

But I think I thought that about the fall of the soviet union at one time too.

Alot depends on whether our next leader (president, colonel, whatever ;) has a pair of balls and is not willing aid and abet the criminally incompetent who came before him.

(also, I'm sure the list could also include a good dozen or more congress persons).

Strangely enough, archeologists just found an ancient hard drive buried on Easter Island.

Using Enhanced Data Interrogation and Recovery Techniques, they discovered the owner had belonged to an ancient tribal group known as TEID (The Easter Island Drum). One of the last entries said, The End is Near, So let's just all become stoner heads and party hardy.

"The media could not tear down Reagan, and they will fail in propping up Pretty Boy Obama."

flagged as stupid.

US High Court Backs Discharge Permit For Coeur d'Alene Mines


this could have implications for other cases like this one:


Desertec, the 'electricity from Sahara' thing:

I'd like to add that here in Europe there are conflicting opinions about the project almost everyday in the main stream media. While a speaker for Muenchner Rueck hails the idea of producing 15 percent electricity from solar plants in the sahara desert for Europe, others, like the CEO of Vattenfall calls it nonsense.

Toss us some links. I'd like to hear the objections. I'm sure the economics of transmission will be staggering.. but the Solar that's available seems pretty hard to deny as well..

All opinions I'm referring to are in German ..

  • There is Stefan Kohler from Deutsche Energie Agentur who says it's not worth changing one dependency against another (say, russian gas), the new cables are too expensive, and that the electricity produced in solar plants should better be used locally.
  • There is Vattenfall CEO Josefsson, who thinks transport costs are too high and the idea as a whole is unrealistic. (Vattenfall is heavily engaged in coal fired plants and wants to build many more of them.)
  • There are some lobbyists for photovoltaics who oppose the project, including green politicians. They are afraid that future development of clean energy may be thwarted by Desertec.

I have looked for english articles about Desertec in Google News, but I couldn't find dissenting pieces so far.


We'll see how good my vorterverzeichnis is at this point..

(I should have said SchnitzenGrueben.. cuz' it isn't all that good..)

"..fifteen is my limit on schnitzengruben, baby, I am not from Havana.."

The idea has been kicked around for years. This is probably a good starting point, I guess:


This isn't a company trying to advance the idea - it seems more like a group of advocates pushing the idea overall.

The theory is that one could use undersea HVDC transmission lines to get the juice up to Europe, and while there will be some losses along the way, they won't be deal-breakers.

I don't really know the arguments against...

sorry didn't read any links, but, where's the the water to clean these things coming from

No water.. they get dry-cleaned.


Some of the energy created can be used for desalination. This is part of "what's in it for the host countries", i.e. an amount of "free" electricity. also jobs which most of these countries desperately want.

Well it's certainly not nonsense technically. Neither is it nonsense economically IN THE LONG TERM. What's Vattenfall guy's argument?

Somedays it pays to listen to wack job radio. (wack-job radio is what I call the mp3's I listen to rather than, say FOX. What makes it interesting is they'll dig up obscure (to me) bits of history and use that as part of the frame to their wack-job issue)

In the last two weeks someone posted about how the lifespan of humans in a low-wattage environment is 47 years. Lo and behold James Martinez on his "I hate the banks - and so should you" program had intervieed Russell Means who pointed out how the Lakota ppl have a similar death age, points out how energy control is a source of real-power, and how the diet harms the Lakota people.
It was the Nov 6th 2008 show.

This is a 2nd interview. Both the 2nd and 3rd Russell Means show I've not listened to, so I can't say they talk about energy or living in a low energy state like the 1st one does.
This the 3rd

And in trying to find a link to that program I found this one

Technocracy-What are the possibilities?
Please take a listen to my interview with Don Miller. Representative of Technocracy Inc.

There are other things he talks about - the free energy wackery as an example. Or the experiment at the heavy energy collider caused the wall street blowout. (wackery till someone shows me a working free energy unit then I'll accept the world is not flat but round)

A CNN blog is now tying consumer confidence to gas prices. It seems like the importance of oil to economic recovery has increased over the last month or so in the media.

Walletnomics: Will confidence run out of gas?

Here's an animation of US job losses for the past few years. It adds visual impact to the scale of the current crash relative to Katrina.
Apologies if this was already posted.

Cool. Are those difficult to make? You could cook up an animated gif easy enough, but how tricky is it to build a Flash animation or the like?

No idea. I'd like to see it made as an altitude map in isometric projection.

UPDATE 2-Cameron LNG terminal receives first cargo Sunday


And so the fear of LNG imports continues elwood. Just an hour ago I sent an email to a client recommending he not buy a NG deal in Cameron Parish. Mostly because it lacked technical merit but also the potential difficulty of promoting a marginal NG project at a time when LNG imports are gearing up.

Re. WWJD - What would Jeff (Rubin) Do

The writer asks:

"In the future, will I have to stop "living the dream?" Does my happiness in life really rest on the flow of cheap and abundant oil?"

Instead of asking about his "happiness", shouldn't he be asking, "does my food, shelter and clothing" rest on the flow of cheap and abundant oil" ????

Instead of asking about his "happiness", shouldn't he be asking, "does my food, shelter and clothing" rest on the flow of cheap and abundant oil" ????

Yes, it does. And without them you are not likely to be very happy. I find it astonishing how many people simply believe they can cut back, be a little bit more frugal, and otherwise be as happy as a pig in a mud wallow as the world crashes around them.

Things will get bad, very bad, it will be a hell on earth and you are not going to be very happy.

Ron P.

So Matt Savinar's 'lifeaftertheoilcrash' will come true after all Ron.

I find it astonishing too.

People like this just don't understand what comes between them and their food and energy, etc - the line from the food on the shelf back to the fields, or the fuel oil in their tank back to the fields, or ...

The logistics involved in the average person's mind is: "switch up - light on, how hard is that..."

The scariest part is they are all around us. And we will have to live among them when they get "very, very unhappy."

I think I will plan a personal, extended Waldon's Pond vacation.

"When they get very very unhappy."

Doesn't matter for they will simply 'die in place' having never used a muscle to do anything at all they will wait for some one to come and give them freebies on food and the rest...since they are 'suffering'.

What makes you think they are to be considered dangerous? We are talking the SUV driving , cellphone talking , ignorant beyond belief, can't read their own clothes label , Murkhan trashheads of massive consumerism and stupidity on a stick.

We have nothing to fear...its the gangbangers I fear. These are organized and dangerous. What is to stop them? The only thing they fear is the Aryan Brotherhood...and most people don't know what that is.

Its going to get very interesting.


I think you're right that many people will 'die in place.'

But there will be many desperate people who will be a danger to themselves and others.

Hopefully they all live in the next town over, but I suspect my town will have it's share too.

Thank you for your terse daily reminder that we will all soon be living 'hell on earth.' While it is a possible and even likely outcome, it is not a certainty- at least not in our lifetimes. And besides, what's the point? It's like telling us all that we are going to die someday. We all already know this fact; but people wake up every morning and live their lives despite this. Your logic seems to imply that we should all wake up today, jump off a bridge, and get it over with since it's going to happen someday anyway.

Your logic seems to imply that we should all wake up today, jump off a bridge, and get it over with since it's going to happen someday anyway.

No, you should get off your ass and try to make plans to be among the survivors, happy or not.

Ron P.

The question: How big is your garden?

No, really, my "logic" does not suggest jumping off a bridge etc tomorrow or any other day.

Although that is what I hear is the choice of many middle-aged men stripped of their former identities after a collapse.

I believe in preparing yourself, family and community (yeah, I know, brick wall there for me too) to live mostly on local resources indefinately.

And I think it is very important to discuss fantasies about saving the world around a campfires (or around an oil drums), but we should remain Sober about the world we are dealing with.

On Bloomberg: Roubini sees economic "double whammy" from oil, deficits.
I did not listen to the interview, because for me it is very old news.

We know at TOD: The economies worldwide stopped growing because of PO. Oil flow rates stopped growing ergo economic growth stopped. That's it. Period. End of story.

It is actually so simple, so easy to understand.

Finally... even economists like Roubini is slowly starting to learn that.

LOL maybe he reads Mish Shedlocks page I called him a complete idiot on oil in a post a few days ago :)

Mish Shedlock is a complete idiot on more than just peak oil.

Another, albeit tiny, step in the right direction...

Cavendish Farms opens new bio-gas plant in PEI

Cavendish Farms, one of North America's biggest French fry producers and a member of the Irving group of companies, officially opened a new bio-gas plant yesterday at its potato processing operations in PEI.

The company said the new plant will help clean up pollution at its operations and is a first for the potato industry in North America.

See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cavendish-farms-opens-...

And in other energy related news as reported in today's Globe and Mail:

N.B. Canaport plant set to go on stream

New Brunswick's Canaport LNG terminal is set to begin operations next week, taking its first natural gas shipment, but analysts are already questioning the economics of the joint venture between Irving Oil Ltd. and Spain's Repsol YPF SA.

The Canaport plant in Saint John is the first onshore liquid natural gas terminal to be built in eastern North America in 31 years and has beat out a host of competitors to supply the lucrative U.S. Northeast market, which is underserved by pipelines from the west.

See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/nb-canaport-plant-set-...

Hibernia South deal expected

The Province of Newfoundland and Labrador may be poised to take an ownership stake in a second offshore oil field, with Premier Danny Williams expected to announce a deal today for development of the Hibernia South field.

The Premier, who has launched the province's own oil and gas company, is set to announce an agreement with the Hibernia consortium in a speech at the annual meeting of the Newfoundland Offshore Industries Association, NTV television reported yesterday.

See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/hibernia-south-deal-ex...


Re: Solving our energy crisis without destroying North Carolina jobs

Here we have our local Repug parrot repeating the Party Line. Notice that Rep Fox says nothing about the problem of climate change, as if Cap-and-Trade were only about increasing taxes. She seems to think the problem is only "energy independence", missing the whole point of the situation. She managed to get the same editorial in the local free paper as well. I would not be surprised to learn that other Repugs out in the country are spewing out the same rhetoric to their local folks, continuing their disinformation efforts from the last election cycle.

For example:

Also disappointing is the fact that this proposed national energy tax will hit the poor the hardest. Experts agree that lower income individuals spend a greater share of their income on energy consumption. So while every American will be paying more for energy, low income households already living on the edge of economic ruin will be hurt even more.

There is evidence that poor folk tend to spend a greater portion of their income on direct consumption of energy. However, the rich folks also consume massive amounts of energy indirectly as energy used to produce all the material goods and services which money can buy. For example, flying across the country from NYC to LA and back uses almost as much oil per person as driving a small car about the same distance, which might equal a year of driving for a poor person and that does not include the energy which is consumed for other purposes during the trip, such as renting a car or staying in a hotel. Cap-and-Trade would impact indirect as well as direct consumption of fossil carbon.

It's no doubt that changing our energy system away from fossil to other renewable sources will be difficult. All Rep Fox and the rest of the Repugs can do is mouth empty statements about using nuclear and wind without saying exactly how this the necessary transition would be accomplished. Nowhere does Rep Fox mention the fact that new nuclear power plants will produce electricity that is much more expensive than the price of electricity from the older nukes built 25-30 years ago. After Peak Oil, the price of all energy sources is likely to begin an upward trend, with serious impacts on all areas of economic activity.

E. Swanson

Cap and trade is necessary along with current very low taxation of gasoline-it would be wrong to raise gasoline taxes as this would funnel revenue to the government along with lowering direct consumption of fossil carbon-what about Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan? It just isn't right to bypass their needs while addressing FF consumption.

After looking around, I found that the Republican bill is H.R. 2846.

After a quick read, I can only say that the bill might have been subtitled, The Drill, Baby, Drill bill as it opens ANWR wide and gives nuclear power a boost. It also makes the claim that oil shale is to be the the main source of future hydrocarbons. No mention of how this is to be achieved.

Of course, there's no serious attempt to actually reduce CO2 emissions, except coal-to-liquids plants...

that demonstrates the capture, and sequestration or disposal or use of, the carbon dioxide produced in the conversion process, and that, on the basis of a carbon dioxide sequestration plan prepared by the applicant, is certified by the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, in consultation with the Secretary, as producing fuel with life cycle carbon dioxide emissions at or below the average life cycle carbon dioxide emissions for the same type of fuel produced at traditional petroleum based facilities with similar annual capacities.

Notice all that's required is that the CO2 emissions would not exceed that of present "petroleum fuel" sources...

E. Swanson

Good program on the History Channel tonight on "The Crumbling of America," about the crumbling infrastructure.