Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
Posted by Jason Bradford on January 5, 2009 - 10:27am
I was asked to give a presentation to a group called Leadership Mendocino. Every year about 30 people in our County, usually from a mix of businesses, government agencies, and non-profits, meet monthly for a full day and intensively study a particular topic. Nov. 14th 2008 was their Ag day, and my presentation followed the Ag Commissioner’s, who reviewed the County’s history and present. I didn’t want to talk about the future as if I knew what was going to happen, but I did want to highlight the vulnerabilities and tensions I saw building and suggest some alternatives to our predicament. Hence I created a storyline in which I was now the County Historian in 2020 giving a talk to the group about the past decade of change.
While the details are specific to where I live, the general lessons apply to the whole world.
A video version of my presentation (which adds more details to the discussion presented here) is available here.
Click on any image to see a higher resolution version.
For Mendocino County the key date was December 12, 2009. The trucks didn’t show up that day.
Why weren’t the trucks running? I’ll give a quick overview of what led up to the Little Death.
Let’s start with the credit market break down in 2008. What followed was a plunge in the volume and reliability of global trade. Without access to the free flow of credit, countries experienced food and fuel shortages. People began rioting.
We saw how developing countries were in profound crisis, but most of us didn’t imagine how those awful scenes would so quickly be in our own neighborhoods too.
Everyone knows the story…Pakistan devolved into anarchy and was unable to keep all of its nuclear weapons secure. Several went missing and the world didn't find out where they went until it was too late.
South-Central Asia and the Middle East were on fire.
The nuclear exchange was contained within the region, but the effects spread globally. The world’s largest oil production facilities and ports were destroyed or inaccessible. The daily flow of supertankers from the Middle East was over.
It was common knowledge at the time that crude oil was the lifeblood of our economy, but little had yet been done to reduce our dependency on oil. The modern world was suddenly without sufficient transportation fuels and totally unprepared.
The specific numbers are staggering. Only a quarter of U.S. crude oil consumption was domestically produced in 2009. The trucking system was the key part of what was called the Just in Time delivery system. Warehousing and stockpiling were no longer practiced significantly and so no buffer existed when the trucks stopped. Our Just in Time system unraveled over a period of several weeks.
J-I-T now stood for "Just Isn't There."
As the flow of goods and services slowed dramatically and then in some cases stopped moving altogether, we were subject to cascading, compounding failures in key sectors of the economy. Just a couple of examples…Without constant truck movement, spare parts and basic supplies ran short. Electricity production relied on coal, which relied on diesel.
Most dire of all was that within three days of the halt to trucking, the grocery stores were out of food.
Looking back at historical records it is clear that, while shocking, this was no surprise. Community-based organizations had been warning of this exact possibility for years.
Nowadays we have buffers and resiliency built into our systems, but that was not the case in 2009. Government hadn’t prepared, having placed its faith in the market to provide for basic goods such as food and energy. Global food stockpiles had been declining for over a decade, and in any case they were not under any government control.
Although some people had stockpiled food and essentials, most people hadn't because either they never thought this could happen or were simply distracted. It might be good to remind everyone what life was like in 2009. Most of us tended to spend our free time in front of the television or interacting with various media and communication devices. Gardening, food preservation, community meals and stuff like that wasn’t cool and exciting for the majority of people, although interest in food security had been increasing for a few years preceding the crisis.
After a week everybody became scared, and most started to feel hungry. This was so unthinkable that many also became profoundly disillusioned and angry. This was not supposed to be happening to “us.” The Five Stages of Grief were on full display.
Events began to run their natural course.
Scared, hungry people saw that some households still had food. This led to looting in some areas. A handful of police and sheriffs couldn’t protect private property from a desperate populace. In other areas looting was averted (barely) as neighbors and authorities agreed to pool private food holdings and distribute them evenly.
As the crisis deepened, a triage system was established. Food was preferentially given to those who could work, and the young.
All sorts of questions that had been ignored for decades became very important. “What about the local farms,” the people asked. “Can they feed us?”
“It’s the middle of winter,” the farmer’s replied. “We can plant potatoes and grains in the spring but they won’t be ready until summer.”
“And where are the seeds going to come from? We are hay farmers, cattle ranchers and grape growers. We don’t even have the right equipment for this.”
Three months passed without relief. Clearly, household preparation wasn’t enough, and now the population was starving.
Other problems arose too. Electricity was spotty. Every bit of gasoline and diesel were needed in generators to keep pumps for water and sewer systems going, to keep the hospitals powered, and to cook food in community kitchens.
But by spring these supplies, commandeered from the tanks of gas stations, were gone.
FEMA didn’t arrive with supplies of food, fuel and medicines in the major valleys until March 2010. These were barely enough to end starvation and give tractors some fuel.
When the railroad cars arrived in May 2010 we finally had enough of the basics again. Freeways were abandoned for hauling freight. They were in disrepair from winter storms and far too expensive to maintain for the now minimal trucking system.
In addition to supplies of grain and beans (25,000 lbs per trailer load), enough seed potatoes were brought in to plant. Potatoes became our survival food for a few years. As we all know, it is hard to eat enough of them to keep the weight on! Health care providers estimate that the average person lost twenty pounds between 2009 and 2012.
Here’s another graphic from the archives. Food security organizations in the County knew that storage foods with high caloric density were essential, and had even started to import and store them in the County. The grain and bean silos established in Willits in 2009 really helped that area weather the crisis better than elsewhere. Silos were quickly built along the railroad tracks in every town.
All of us began to learn some of the basic facts about nutrition and agriculture, such as how many calories we need per day and how to eke that out of the soil.
Even with farm supplies brought in by rail car, we lacked much of the needed energy infrastructure to irrigate crops as electricity was still unreliable. Few well pumps ran off solar panels. So in most cases, yields weren’t as large as we’d hoped. It was terribly frustrating; we could see the water 30 ft down in the well but couldn’t get it out fast enough to make a difference.
Ever since the Little Death, precious tractor fuel has been limited. Much more is now done with manual labor than in the past. This was a difficult adjustment, both physically and psychologically. Some people were excited by the challenge and adapted well. On the bright side, “unemployment” is nearly non-existent and we are a fit and industrious people.
Explicit warnings of our vulnerabilities, and an alternative vision had been given by local community groups as early 2004. In August 2010, a plan for a local food economy was adopted by local governments based on the research of community activists that preceded the crisis. The food system we have today is by and large based on those plans.
The ranching community was familiar with the concept of carrying capacity, but usually called it the “stocking rate.” Good ranchers made sure not to put more cattle on a piece of land than it could handle. A local food system plan had to think about the sustainable population of humans in the County too.
Some basic facts that were used to frame the plan:
1. The County’s population in 2010 was estimated at 80,000 (down from a peak of 90,000 before the crisis).
2. Somewhere between 35,000 and 50,000 acres of prime ag land remained in the county (after an initial endowment of 95,000).
3. To supply enough food to feed one person requires about one acre.
The plan also recognized that a local food system had to overcome serious capital deficits with respect to: renewable energy, equipment, infrastructure, education and worker skills, business to business relationships, and public law and policy.
In any environment it would be difficult to overcome these deficits, but the crisis was a mixed blessing. Everybody now recognized that a new system had to be built. Nearly all resources were allocated according to this need. Ideology was replaced by practicality. What people were “willing to do” changed overnight.
Now I will shift gears and contrast the food system of 2009 with what we have today. I’ll start with a review of the 2009 food system.
Here are a couple of graphs that summarize data at the national scale when the crisis hit. At that time, one calorie of food energy depended on several calories of fossil fuel energy. Basically, all parts of the system were highly dependent upon fossil fuels, long-distance supply chains, and complex financial markets.
Today’s food system has many features that improve our resiliency and security. Key attributes are:
Diverse. A complete and balanced diet can be had within the agricultural base of the County.
Local. Food produced here is consumed here, and the agricultural landscape is no longer dominated by grapes and cattle for export.
Renewable. Energy inputs for agriculture, transportation and processing are based on solar, wind, hydro and other non-fossil sources.
Non-toxic. Artificial pesticides and herbicides are no longer available and we use biological controls and landscape management to dampen pest cycles.
Cyclical. Soils are improved rather than depleted through conservation tillage, smart land-cover rotation patterns, and composting of all human and animal wastes.
Adaptable. As climate changes and new farmers learn what works best, systems are in place to exchange information and perform needed research.
Buffered. The future is always uncertain. Always be prepared for trouble by storing extra of what we really need.
Today’s food system is completely different. The plan recognized the web of relationships needed for a sustainable system. Fossil fuels are nearly eliminated. Transportation distances are very short. Waste becomes the new fertilizer.
While mechanized to the extent energy availability allows, the farm of 2020 uses efficient hand tools when those suffice.
Compost today is very expensive. Farmers work very hard to create the fertility they need on site as best they can. Food scraps are highly valued and used in vermiculture systems. Human wastes are professionally handled and sold to farmers certified disease free.
Imported chemical pesticides and herbicides are also very costly. More knowledge and labor is now used, including beneficial insect plants that add a lot of color and interest to farms.
Off the farm society has changed just as dramatically. People often use solar ovens to cook, and disposable packaging is rarely seen anymore.
Because a transportation fuel crisis was the proximate cause of the crisis, people were especially keen on eliminating reliance on long-distance supply chains. Households began sourcing as much food locally as they could. In 2009 a trip to the grocery store would mean a 1500 mile diet. Today that could be more like a 150 yard diet. Bikes with trailers can now handle much local transport. Streets are quieter, and the air less polluted.
Not only have on the farm practices changed, but farms are cooperating like never before. This creates synergies at the landscape level we all benefit from.
For example, this goat dairy sows a hay crop rich in wildflowers, thereby supporting a local beekeeper. The beekeeper’s hives also service orchards and row crops in the area, ensuring good pollination and food for all of us.
We have much to be proud of now. We made it through very tough times together by mostly keeping our heads on straight and making good decisions when it really counted. But we also live with the pain of loss and regret, asking ourselves over and over, “How did we let this happen?”
What does the last 10 years teach us about the importance of leadership?
I look at this issue in two ways. First, good leaders do their best to prevent crises. This requires the ability to help people accept the reality of unsustainable tensions before they go too far. Just talking to people can establish new conversations that propagate. Only when enough people are having similar conversations are social changes possible.
Of course human history is full of one account after another of societies that failed to recognize their obvious problems before it was too late. When disaster strikes, good leaders manage their shock and the loss of normalcy. They model the proper attitude, reducing panic and heightening clear thinking.
The best crisis leaders are those that combine awareness of the problem before it arrived with a sense of direction and clarity. Because they saw what was coming, they often have a plan to deal with it as soon as the population is forced by circumstances out of denial, distraction and inaction. Since what people are willing to do changes in a crisis, wise leadership can make a lot happen for the good very quickly.
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If this is the way it shakes out,we will be very,very lucky.I see more like the .05% of the population that is the "predator"class being a little more hard to deal with.There is way,way too many that want to play Rambo/Madmax with a dash of "the road".Keeping a low profile will be consistent with staying alive I think.
Rephrased in the form of questions: What happened to the millions of "downstate" Californians? Did they go gracefully into the night, or did a few of them hear about what Mendocino County had cooking? What did the fine folks of Mendocino County do to keep them at bay (i.e. why did the population of the county go down rather than up)? How did they sleep at night?
Indeed, how would farms protect themselves from self-organizing groups of desperate people, many of whom undoubtedly would have military combat and tactics experience? These people could take over any number of farms and become landed 'barons' who could be hard to dislodge.
Will,
You don't understand Mendocino County. It's not like California's Central Valley or the Midwest where people grow row crops on huge farms. It's mountains and valleys with small acreages mostly planted to wine grapes and a few orchards. Further, they are spread out all over hell and back in the county.
Take my area north of Jason's. It cover about 600 square miles and has about 4,000 people. A gang would run out of gas before they even found a few vegetable gardens. And, of course, there are other options to deal with bad people.
Todd
I think you grossly underestimate the determination and reach of large numbers of starving but well equipped, trained mercenaries, armed with high-tech weapons and led by illumintai who are not accustomed to going "quietly into the night". Small farms --and farmers-- are *not* hard to find for people with access to military satellites, night-vision goggles, decent topographical maps, etc. And it's not like existing stockpiles of petrol will simply disappear overnight, or that all weapons/equipment will cease to function the second the Middle East tap is turned off.
If this make-believe scenario really plays out, neo-feudalism here we come. Let's hope it doesn't.
This is why I left the USA and came to live in Australia. At least here there is some sense of community, and the thugs are mostly gunless.
HARMy - Right, let's suppose you're right about these well-equipped militias. Are they idiots? They go round killing all the farmers in CA? Or they go round borrowing all their food, leaving all the farmers to starve? If the militias have any concept of wanting to live for a few more years rather than few more days, then they are going to be very concerned to ensure that those farmers (a) are not killed, and (b) are not starved into uselessness.
The productive people will end up being parasited on by unproductive bosses. As was ever.
Rule no.1 of the post-collapse world, well illustrated in the (otherwise grossly unrealistic) Mad Max movies, is that the most important thing to enhance your survival is to make yourself conspicuously useful.
Oh, please. Robin, there is simply no way to avoid the fact that if there was ever a food crisis in the USA, a horde of starving proles would spread out throughout the country, armed to the teeth, and nice people with vege farms would be killed, or raped and killed, as the case may be, before all of their food was taken. That is why I left the USA, so you can see I am pretty convinced of this. Your fantasies about thoughtful perps who want to groom farmers to provide them with food on a longterm sustainable basis gives them far too much credit.
Mamba: "if there's a food crisis"
->WHEN there's a food crisis
I think Mamba you are considering a different thing from me and "HARM". We were thinking of reasonably-organised armed bands travelling significant distances with plans in mind. You are thinking of desperate clueless city idiots who can think no further ahead than their next meal. Of those latter, one can guard against the majority of them by living well away from cities and towns, and off the beaten track (and without a big windmill saying "we're over here folks!"). The stragglers who get to reach you (from neighbouring villages) will be in no great condition to win a fight anyway.
Meanwhile, when the militia band arrive, you put up your hands and calmly discuss with them. There's not much point in doing otherwise if like me you are not a specialist in combat.
Robin, I don't want to argue with you about The Coming of the Zombies, but I'll simply say that you are grossly underestimating the lawlessness and criminality that would occur if food were to become permanently scarce in the US.
Mamba - I guess i'm orienting my thinking more to the situation in the UK where far fewer people will be roaming around with guns. I expect that the vast majority of people, who live in cities, will not venture very far across country, which is very alien territory to them, and they would soon become exhausted. Most would not venture far from their urban "mother" anyway, hoping for authority to come to their rescue as had always happened ever since their birth.
But I do incline to agree about the catastrophic effect of a shortage, even in the uk. Due to the factor you describe I see a very high likelihood that nice-kind-person Jason's "Little Death" would in reality be a "Little Survival", leaving perhaps just a few hundreds in the canniest survivalist communities.
Thing is, this prospect we're describing scares the hell out of most people, and they will be hard enough to convince that there'll be a food crisis anyway.
So we need to sort out arguments which are very soundly based and reasoned, conceding to the "doomer" side only as a last resort. No-one takes any notice of my warnings to stock food already as it is.
Okay ...
- Most people in America won't go anywhere unless they can drive there. In case of breakdown, the autobound are helpless.
- Where do you get this idea that farmers are peaceniks? I grew up with farmers, people who lived in small towns, rural folk ... who also hunted ... with firearms ... with bows and arrows ... with pistols ... shotguns ... etc. Last person I'd wanna mess with was a country or small town person. Jesse James met his end in Northfield, Minnesota at the hands of ... townspeople:
http://www.civilwarstlouis.com/History/jamesnorthfield.htm
- The idea that trained 'mercenaries' will be sitting around waiting 'til the last second and then shepharding the hopeless is not realistic. Training ='s preparedness. I suspect most 'mercenaries' will have their own farms or, in some other manner be 'ahead of the game'.
- Just as many farmers will be able to protect their farms as there are those without farms.
- In case of breakdown, there will be 'food' (skidloads of 'nutrients' and 'cholesterol', Twinkies and Big Macs) but chaotic delivery. In case of breakdown, authority will do everything it can to maintain itself, the easiest way is to get trucks and diesel fuel and deliver food, either on its own account or via the Red Cross, local governments and emergency services providers or by the National Guard. It's not difficult, the US has a strategic petroleum reserve and the military itself can divert some of its vast store of fuel for emergency use for a short period to assure food delivery. Obviously, this simple process failed post- Katrina. Blame it on Bush, but the resources were available to meet the needs of citizens after that storm.
People have wild fantasies about gangs terrorizing the peasants and making all kinds of trouble. More likely is organized reaction against the government. A possibility is a coup d'etat or constitutional crisis where the in- power government is literally driven out of town by unhappy masses; the 'Million- Angry- Man March'.
Even during the Depression, where poverty was widespread, there was little more banditry than there was during the 1920's. Leaving out Bonny and Clyde, of course. People would steal food and pilfer items they could sell for a few pennies. Armed robbery was rare; most people had little so robbing them was pointless, at the same time the conditions were so desperate that support and understanding were valuable. Most cities and towns had 'Hoovervilles' where homeless hobos, the jobless and migrants camped ... these were not dangerous places since all were more or less in the same boat.
During the Depression, there was political discontent that bordered on insurrection. In the midwest there were groups armed to prevent foreclosures; 'revolutionary committees' and militias readied; (William Manchester 'The Glory and the Dream').
If there is to be fighting, it will be insurrection not robbery.
It's safe to say that there are multiple scenarios possible, and none of us are in a position to say with any certainty which will truly be the one to unfold in the situation Jason described.
I think Steve's got it - I've spent some time among the very poor and hungry all over the world, and it is surprising how docile they are. People in the US are used to being told to wait - some will get angry and cause destruction, but the trained and organized militias are likely to exist more among the farmers than among the urban dwellers.
I think we've all got zombies movies inscribed in our brains - it messes up our thinking. The idea that we'll immediately organize into "marauders vs. pacifist farmers" requires enough suspension of disbelief that it falls in the category of "why borrow trouble when they are giving it away for free." Crime will rise, and people will struggle, but the warlords are a good ways off.
Sharon
I think in some of these posts there is a confusion of two or more quite different things.
Firstly there are people who have grown up in a situation of chronic poverty and hunger (rather than starvation). They aren't faced with an abrupt deterioration, nor with an urgent death-threatening situation. Not surprisingly they are docile as Sharon says above.
Secondly there are oppressively rising food prices in for instance Pakistan, leading to riots, that is protests against the government aimed at lowering of those prices.
Thirdly there is a catastrophic abrupt collapse of the vast global/industrial/corporate/oil-powered/debt-delusions-financed food-supply machine, with accompanying failures of petroleum markets (hoarding), resulting in trucks no longer coming to city food-stores. In this latter scenario, which I consider to be almost inevitable, people will be faced by an abrupt shocking deterioration they never forsaw, and an urgent death-threatening situation. They won't protest against the government (with "food riots"), because the government didn't impose it and can't correct it. They will resort to mugging, looting, ambushing, burglary, and rampaging expeditions. There will be so many of such incidents going on, including by authority personnel themselves, that the authorities will not be in any position to suppress this disorder. By the time it's calmed down, the population will have been decimated (choose your preferred fraction here).
Allow me to point out a rare example of a famine in a modern industrialised nation and it's consequences: the Netherlands during the winter of '44/'45.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hongerwinter
A railwaystrike combined with an offensive that cut the country in half, Germans blocking food transports to the west of the Netherlands in retaliation for the railwaystrike, and an unusually harsh winter, lead to a famine that caused circa 18000 people to die (on a population of 9 million).
There was not a lot of violence; surprisingly little actually. Families trekked long and far to reach farmers, with whom they bartered for food. Most farmers were reasonable, some were shrewd, some were stolen from and some took advantage of the situation (it's been suggested the latter 2 categories overlapped). There were NO violent robberies. There were instances of German-controlled constables seizing food on the roads, and subsequently dumping it in a ditch, and there were examples of hungry people stealing collected food from other hungry people when they weren't looking.
Mostly timid victims, I'd say.
Regarding to how it would play out in a modern day situation, I think it would depend on local culture (vis a vis attitude), gun prevalence, and mainly: the suddenness. If oil *suddenly* stopped flowing, and food suddenly stopped being transported into populated areas, panic will set in, and violence will occur. If it happens slowly (i.e. food harder to get but not impossible), the population will sooner grow morose and discontent, a much more manageable combination.
Comparing a homogeneous, disciplined European population under occupation in 1944 to the melting pot of races in 2010+, all feeling entitled and all armed with guns, is fatuous, to say the least.
An Egregious error! (sorry...)
The name of the Netherlands reflects that fact that it was/is an exceptionally atypical country. Its inhabitants had to literally reclaim their land from the sea, by means of huge community co-operation in building and maintaining a technologically sophisticated system of dykes (a bit like New Orleans).
This physical basis, in which not just their lives but their whole existence depended on that constant co-operation, was reflected in the Dutch being much more co-operatively-minded, less criminal, more environmentally aware. I've put some past tense in there for reasons related to the jihad victim Theo van Gogh and the likewise threatened Hirsi Ali and Geert Wilders. Because unfortunately community-minded people all too often allow their kindness to be abused by parasites.
Mamba: "if there's a food crisis"
->WHEN there's a food crisis
->-> There IS a food crisis.
Have you paid any attention to the news lately? Food shelves can't keep stocked. Farmers see tens of thousands show up to glean from their fields.
The crisis is here. Mostly non-violent. Sorry if this disappoints anyone. Violence makes for gripping film footage, but parents looking for minimal nutrition for themselves and their kids do not automatically turn into Mad Max and Mad Mom.
Hungry and starving people are by definition energy deprived. It generally takes energy to commit violence.
Who knows, but so far, recently and in previous history, most people do not turn immediately to violence when faced with hunger.
This is the basic assumption I made with this scenario and you get a better feel of it when seeing the video of the talk. After some early vigor, people settle into a mode of muddling through, hunkering down, weary co-operation, and anxious waiting.
But which country(s) are you talking about? Here in ukay I've just visited a supermarket stocked full* of affordable food. See my above for what I (and others) meant by a food crisis. *(ok- the sods had sold out of organic mushrooms)
I was talking about the US, but I think it is already more widely applicable. There have been food protests and riots around the world over the last year.
"Affordable" for you may be un-affordable for someone without a job...
Yup, us docile unarmed country folk will just wait around until some gangbangers come by and kill us and take our food! Are you serious? In my neck of the woods even the women have guns and know how to use them. Almost everyone is an avid hunter with bow and/or firearms. Any assholes like the ones in the picture above who would show up during a severe crisis would be "disappeared". Hog food. Roadblocks would insure strangers would not enter the county. Much of the population are ex-military.
Good luck. I'll take my chances in a saner country.
Thanks, I'll need it. We'll all need it.
Errm, excuse me Bruce (nice to meAt you by the way!),
It won't only be city idiots who are desperate for food. It will be some of those rural ex-military hunting experts who also didnt sort out their food stocks and so have to go on the rampage themselves.
Anyone got any advice on how best to cook fresh Californian?
(oops, sorry wrong forum)
That is a good observation, as I know a few that I would be leery of in a crisis. The only redeeming fact is such a small populated county such as mine everyone knows who they are, especially the authorities. I suspect they'll prey on the elderly first.
Since Californians are fruits, nuts, and flakes you would only have to add milk. Sorry, I could not help it.
Just to piggy-back on what Mamba said above:
I spend some time lurking on the "other" peak oil forums. These folks are armed to the teeth. Some seem to be mostly interested in defense from the people pictured above, but I often hear "if my kids are starving, and you have food, you're dead".
Some would probably provide protection to a farmer in exchange for food, but some seem itching to use their stockpiles of ammo. Long range thinking seems to be in short supply in our society, and I don't see how a food crisis would help that situation at all.
BTW, there seems to be a decent mix of urban and rural on these forums. Lots of people want to play soldier.
Not I! I desire to make myself useful and necessary to my rural community with my skills , such as carpentry/cabinetmaking, gardening, mechanics, etc.. I have no desire to engage in gunfights with crazies. But if need be, I will. And I am an expert marksman, especially with a handgun, and more than adequately armed. Hopefully it never comes to that.
Yes, but that wisdom may come from age. It's the 17-25 demographic that I worry about.
The ones who haven't seen combat up close, but have virtually killed millions on their PS3. War is still fun for those that haven't been in it. Now many of them have an SKS, AR-15 or some such, a couple thousand rounds of ammo, lots of testosterone and buddies urging them on. There are also the ones who couldn't leave the war behind.
I haven't fired a gun for several years, but I did enjoy it when I did. I only tried firing a handgun once, and I was horrible.
Must be a collective mental block thingy going on here. The civilian collective will never be allowed to swarm and cause mayhem. The military under the control of the TPTB will though. Ahhh....no one mentioned that huh ? Remember Kent state Ohio ? Why would young adults of roughly the same age as the college students, fire live ammo on unarmed, peaceful protesters, you ask ? The college students had privilage I answer. The national guard kid felt the college kid was a world away in class, (not college class room but social class) when in effect, the college kid was just going to be a little better off, by getting the day shift. The guardsman got the night shift got boots to shine and rifle grease and worked on niteshift and the national guard on weekends.
Why would the already cohesive military allow someone to steal their wheaties or otherwise piss in their oatmeal ? Does the military industrial complex build Berlin or great walls of China, too keep marauders out or their own populace in ?
You think the intelligentsia are safe by being conspicuosly useful ? Did you not see the above concerning Kent State ? The rich aren't safe either, they are obvious targets by any camp, government or marauders. Is Bernie Madoff being guarded from leaving his $7 million dollar penthouse or is he being protected from angry victims ? Only the super rich will be able to afford protection, using the military industrial complex as their guardsmen. Some Jewish college prof with tenure and a nice house and 1 or 2 mill $ in a portfolio hasn't a chance, he's a piker as far as TPTB are concerned., did you miss WWII ?
Playing along too get along isn't gonna fill the porridge bowl either, might as well lick a lawyers Italian shoes in hopes he will treat you without contempt, kissing and hugging snakes, never makes them compassionate lovers.
Doctors will be shot just because, it happens to ambulance drivers and UN workers in the middle east by "The only democracy" right now and today already. Being useful or passive,doesn't gaurantee or increase ones odds not one iota.
Why does everyone think they can escape the splatter of fecal matter when it hits the rotational air circulation device ?
The militaries around the globe are already killing innocents for land and water and resources, its 24/7 and hyped as being about defense from terrorism, have they ever found a dead terrorist under a dead child or pregnant women ? Your all nothing more than a green blob on a forward looking infared camera projected miles away on a LED screen to them, they press a button and see a blur and they all high five each other.
Stocking soylent green seems rather pathetic, doesnt it?
I can't let this slur pass unrebutted.
Nephelim means the ambulances used by "Palestinians" [1] to carry fighters and weapons, which is a violation of International Humanitarian Law (aka a war crime). Use of Red Crescent ambulances to carry weapons has been an issue for years, and UN ambulances have been used to carry fighters.
If you haven't bothered to educate yourself about Pallywood, you have no idea how much of the "crimes" of Israel are manufactured by the Arab propaganda apparatus. Then again, they are just being good Muslims and following the dictates of their Prophet and best example of conduct [2]: "War is deceit."
[1] "Palestinian" as used here is a term of propaganda. The people usually called such are properly called (Palestinian) Arabs, because the autochthonous (Palestinian) Christians are not part of the hostilities, and the (Palestinian) Jews have been ethnically cleansed even from cities named after them such as Hebron. If you refer to pre-1968 news accounts you will see the terms used correctly, but since that time the media have been corrupted in myriad ways.
[2] Other examples of good conduct include the wholesale butchering of the men of the Kaybar oasis and the enslavement of the women and children, for no other reason than that they were not Muslims.
Engineer-Poet ;
The sites you posted, as anyone can see by clicking on them, show it was a stretcher that was loaded into the ambulance and not a rocket.
I will now use Israeli press and Israeli Gov sources to prove the war crimes of using innocent Palestinian children as human shields. The Israeli Gov found the IDF guilty of the practice and sanctioned the further use of the crime....the IDF refused to submit.
http://www.btselem.org/english/Human_Shields/20060720_Human_Shields_in_B...
http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3387356,00.html
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/834937.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4333982.stm
No doubt these unarguable facts will be censored from the cruel light of day here.
A Hamas leader today unwittingly gave away the moral imbalance when he said that it is now legitimate for Hamas to kill Israeli children. I don't think one would ever hear the converse said.
The root of all this is that Islam is distinct from (other?) major religions in that it was founded by a vicious terrorist. The start of Muslim terror against peaceful Jews can be seen in Qur'an 59:2-7 where "Allah" gloats at Mohammed's victorious start of the ethnic cleansing of Arabia. "Allah" "reveals" that it was good that the peaceful (59:2) Jews were made homeless and destitute, that it was a great ingenious (59:2) wheeze to chop down their desert fruit-trees (59:5), and that the personal possessions stolen from the innocent victims properly became the Muslims' property even though they'd done no work for them (59:6, 59:7).
Here's video of Palestinian terrorists using their own children as human shields:
[1] That's what we expect of propagandists for Arab terrorists.
Please delete this off topic crap from the page.
"He who lives by the sword dies by the sword"
Any predator has to repeatedly attack in order to be sustained and I don't see these leaches lasting long as there are far too many guns in the US. Much better to foster a policy of co-operation.
Nick.
Interesting: Just one small question. Where did the paper come from and the colored inks for the graphs? Nuf said!
The report-from-the-future when speaking to community groups is a great approach. It lets you quickly paint the picture in a less threatening way than a straight sermon. I think people will take the information in more readily.
IMO, though, it would be best to avoid the nuclear mideast scenario as the trigger. That allows people to think it might not happen. Presenting the cause as the decline in oil production, which is inevitable and probably imminent, would make it harder for listeners to remain in denial and might elicit a more immediate response from some.
One reason this presentation works is because Mendocino County is a long distance from Washington, DC.
Bad leadership is entrenched; people come to expect it. Since neither the President nor the Congress will ever stand on line to a soup kitchen (except as a publicity stunt) no kind of preemptive plan will ever be put into place. There will be crisis, then crisis 'management'.
The question is whether the Army - the Salvation Army - will be able to 'scale up' to feed all the hungry millions.
I live in the town north of Jason and have lived here since 1974. I've also been a small-scale certified organic grower. Further, my wife has worked for the California Agricultural Statics Service for way over 20 years doing farm surveys in the county.
I think Jason is overly optimist about the amount of food that could be produced in Mendocino County. There are a number of limiting factors:
First, water for irrigation. The county is running out of water for its current population and it wold be greatly in deficit were row crops to be grown. Wine grapes, which are the major crop (besides marijuana which is the biggest crop on a dollar basis) in the county, have low water requirements so it's not a matter of pulling the grapes and putting vegetables.
There have been various plans over the years to dam some of the valleys (Round Valley where a town called Covelo is located and Long Valley where a town called Laytonville in located and where we get our mail) and the Eel River, the Yellow Jacket dams.
Second, with the exception of Ukiah and the surrounding valleys, the climate is difficult with late frosts and, often cool days. The valley where Willits is located and where Jason lives, mostly floods in the winter - this is why it's called Little Lake Valley.
Third, much of the terrain does not lend itself to row crops. It is hilly with poor to moderate soils. There are specific reasons why crops are grown in various areas and not others.
Fourth, the farm equipment needed for many crops that would need to be grown isn't available since they aren't grown here. There are lots of hay balers but few, if any, combines or potato diggers.
There are many additional issues but I don't want to belabor this. My point is that it is doubtful whether Mendocino County could feed more than 25-30,000 people - and, IMO, even that's pushing it.
Todd
Great story, Jason.
Todd:
Regarding water usage, in a pinch wouldn't we divert water from some of its uses now to agriculture?
For instance, here is how the USGS calculates typical residential water use:
Bath: 50 gallons
Shower: 2 gallons per minute
Teeth brushing: 1 gallon
Hands/face washing: 1 gallon
Face/leg shaving: 1 gallon
Dishwasher: 20 gallons/load
Dishwashing by hand: 5 gallons/load
Clothes washing (machine): : 10 gallons/load
Toilet flush: 3 gallons
Glasses of water drunk: 8 oz. per glass (1/16th of a gallon)
(http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/sq3.html)
It would seem that we could increase the price and at least residential water use could be made to plummet, freeing up some water.
Industrial water use might have similar savings available, especially since many companies will go bankrupt or the current high production rates will come down.
Climate and terrain are more difficult issues.
For farm equipment, I think we will have — from now on — a great deal of available labor, so I personally am not too concerned about that.
Thoughts?
aangel,
This assumes the grid is still functional. If not, then onsite wells would be all that could service each farm. Either handpumped, or via solar/wind pumps installed before the crisis (I doubt many could be acquired and effectively installed after).
Andre',
The simple answer is it wouldn't work and a complete answer would be awfully long. Part of the problem is that water would have to be pumped for miles and miles, up and down hills/small mountains to the agricultural lands. There are only about four waste treatment plants in the county and a very large number of people are on septic systems and personal wells.
Further, the evapotranspiration rate (ETO) is about 6" or half an acre-foot per month during peak summer months. In round numbers this is about 200,000 gallons per acre per month or ~6,000gallons/acre per day. I have exact numbers in a paper I wrote some time ago but this is close enough. While ETO varies by crop, it is still going to be significantly beyond what reduced personal usage could supply.
Todd
Yes, you could free up some water from residences, but farms need a lot of water. I can water about 500 ft^2 of garden with what I use typically use indoors, (according to my water bill, I use about twice as much water in the summer than I do in the winter, and the garden is about 500 ft^2,) and I have drip irrigation, which is more efficient than most irrigation systems. And 500 ft^2 doesn't begin to feed me for a year, (it certainly does help my vegetable intake.)
Also, farms and people have different standard. People complain if their tap water is cloudy, (and water treatment plants spend a lot of money making sure that it doesn't happen,) where as farmers doesn't. And farms don't really need chlorine, where as in a city, with leaking sewer pipes right next to leaking water pipes, chlorine is a good idea. So retrofitting the municipal system to provide irrigation water would probably be more of a cannibalization...
Hi Todd,
I largely agree with you and if you look closely at the story line and provided charts you will see that.
E.g., 80,000 people, ca. 30,000 acres of good ag land and ca. 1 acre needed to feed a person (which is mostly dry land farming yields).
E.g., farmers complaining that they don't have the equipment or experience needed for food crops.
The only "solution" given in this storyline is that the train brings in the equipment we need to transition and some extra food. We certainly haven't prepared!
Hi Jason,
A mutual friend of your's and mine called to discuss this thread. In sum, we feel you are grossly optimistic.
Here's what I'd like to see you post on this thread: What crops are you growing on your one acre without irrigation (zero, zip, nada irrigation) that will feed a person for a year. For those unfamiliar with Mendocino County, the winter rains stop in late April or May. There is, essentially, no summer rain.
Todd
Does Jason not capture rainwater? If not, he really should! (You can click on the images below)
I do capture rainfall at my home and have about 2500 gallon capacity. This would make a decent dent in my backyard veggie garden. I also have a grey water system for irrigation.
The small farm I run at a local school used 25,000 gallons from June though Sept. We are planning to install about 10,000 gallons of rainwater capture from rooftops there. This farm grows veggies primarily. I believe around here it is best to dry land farm the major calorie crops, and irrigate small areas for summer produce. Rainfall storage can help with the latter but is not significant for the former.
Small grains were commonly dry land farmed here and still are--but usually harvested as oat hay. I have what historic agricultural statistics still exist (most were lost by 3 fires in 3 different locations) and base my estimates on yields from farms from the 1880s through 1930s.
For more info see:
http://www.energyfarms.net/node/1492
I don't feel like arguing about whether I am too optimistic or not pessimistic enough. This was a scenario meant to get people thinking. It starts off with something I hope doesn't happen and ends with what I would like to happen if it did! Neither happening is most likely.
'Nuff said. We've been around this horn before. Todd
Todd, Could you comment on whether the areas which are not suitable for grain crops would support apple orchards or berries or some other type of crop?
Another question: Suppose you could organize in advance and get resources for the task: How would you try to boost Mendocino agricultural output with a few years notice before TSHTF?
You'd have difficulty growing apple trees or blackcurrants on thin-soiled steep slopes. Such terrain may be best used for sheep, as in Scotland.
At the exact opposite, flood plains can be used for pasture (provided the animals have scope to escape the rising waters!).
LOL
Let us hope that none of the rural ex-military hunting experts discussed upthread tune into the oildrum. Because we have just given them a post-collapse game plan.
In terms of human suffering, the collapse of our energy and food supply is bad enough. But the suffering will be made infinitely worse by:
1. Climate chaos
2. Two-legged predators
3. The fact that the bulk of the food is grown in precious few
areas. The current US population is supported by shipping food
across long distances. And as Todd says, there are specific
reasons why crops are grown in certain areas and not others. As
the distribution systems break down in the not-to distant
future, what will happen to the tens of millions of Americans
who suddenly find themselves living in no-man's land?
But then again, that doesn't sound like the considered thinking of a wise General (as per Sun Tsu aforementioned).
Such a military non-genius would quite likely get stuck out of gas halfway across the Nevada anyway.
LOL!! That's priceless!
The main value of thought experiments like this is to identify where the main choke points and vulnerabilities are, to identify what things might make an especially big difference.
Some of the take-aways that I see:
In general, the more people in a community that are already gardening, that already have fruit trees and shrubs and vines planted and producing, the more people keeping bees or livestock, and have some of their production stockpiled, the better. This at least reduces the percentage of population that is immediately in need of feeding. It also provides a pool of experienced people with practical know-how that can help their neighbors ramp up their own food production.
On the other hand, this advantage can be totally wiped out with one spasm of rioting and looting. I do not view this as something that will inevitably happen everywhere, no matter what; there is a spectrum of scenarios and possibilities. While there are always exceptions, in general the larger the community, the more vulnerable it is likely to be. The quality of civilian and police leadership, and their willingness/ability to not only react quickly but also appropriately, and especially to recruit civillians to cooperate with and assist/support uniformed police in some auxiliary or militia or deputized posse format will make a huge difference. These people need to already be in place and have been leading for years, waiting until people are rioting in the streets is too late.
If we are faced by a sudden crisis scenario, then getting the local population through until the first planting/harvest cycle is past is a major challenge. The oft-touted "72-hour" disaster preps are totally inadequate for this task. Ideally, as many people as possible should have at least a whole year's worth of food stockpiled at home, and each community should have enough food stockpiled to cover the entire population for a year; the combination would provide a good margin of error.
Unfortunately, most communities won't do this. Even if your own household has a good stockpile of food, most of your neighbors won't. How long do you think you are going to be able to get away with looking well fed when your neighbors - and especially, your neighbor's children - are starving? I don't believe that it is realistic to expect that one can continue to live obviously much better than one's neighbors if times become as hard as - or harder than - this scenario anticipates. A better strategy is to plan to be just a little better off in some non-obvious but critical ways. For example, a stockpile of multi-vitamin & mineral tablets might make a big difference, and these can be hidden pretty easily. A stockpile of hard candies can also be hidden; these will keep indefinitely, and could provide several hundred supplemental calories per day. Everyone knows about the advisability and ease of storing beans and rice, which in combination supply complete protein.
Seeds (including seed potatoes, etc.) are another critical issue. It is obvious that in a crisis, these will be in short supply. Even now, it is looking like seed suppliers might sell out early as more people raise gardens in 2009. Not everyone can get whole-hog into seed saving,but the more that do so, the better. All of us who garden can get into a cycle where we are ordering and storing our seeds a year in advance.
Transport is another area subject to severe sudden disruption in a crisis. The US has not invested enough on urban and intercity mass transit, so if and when such a disruption hits, we will really be hurting. People would be well advised to consider: what happens if my automobiles suddenly become idled due to lack of fuel? Living in a walkable community and having a bicycle will obviously be advantageous. (Although it is an open question how secure bicycles can be in a community with too few bicycles and too many people desperate for some form of wheeled transport.)
WNC Observer, in Marin County we're taking a different approach to preparedness. From my note yesterday:
I believe the unit that can move the fastest and achieve the most results is the individual/household. Greater than the household (the neighborhood, the community, the city, etc.) and everything slows way down.
And in this personal preparation check list I've created (soliciting feedback, it's still a beta), I recommend at least two months of food.
I haven't been able to substantiate this, but I read somewhere that one reason the Mormons stock so much food is to lessen the temptation to sin out of desperation. If there is food in the house and things go bad, there is time to adjust and recover.
Societally, we have precious few buffers at any level. Hence the "just isn't there" above.
My vision is to household-by-household support and track how people in my community are getting ready.
Hi AAngel,
Your link appears to be broken... I'd love to see your list!
Cheers,
Aangel - I've already replied to that post that I don't see a household as a survivable unit. It has to have the support of a surviving village/locality to provide security among other things. Otherwise the locals will come round to "join in the dinner".
Hi, Robin. Sorry I didn't reply, I forget witch post your comment was attached to.
Yes, I get that point of view but don't see a better alternative. I think the family unit will once again become very important. Abundant energy has allowed families to disperse across the country and the world. This trend will slow and reverse, I believe. Families are already reuniting due to the mortgage meltdown.
Hi, Kiwi. Sorry, here it is:
www.postpeakliving.com/files/presentations/PostPeakPreparationChecklist.pdf
Recall that this is intended primarily as an introduction to preparation for a public meeting in a week.
I'm working up a very thorough list, but this should get people going in the right direction. Besides, what's more important is for people to take preparation seriously...once the commitment is there, all the resources of what to learn and what to purchase are easily available on the web or via books.
Edit: Actually, I think I'm going to add that point to the document...
I very much like to see an article at TOD discussing this very issue, because I think about it a lot and I believe that in the end, the chief threat of peak oil is peak food.
I want to see discussed subtopics like food-safe containers, nitrogen or CO2 purged grains, dehydrated foods, vacuum packaging at home, cellaring, etc.
If we all could have a few years of sustenance stored in our homes, the threat of JIT becoming Just Not There is obviated.
Mamba: Strongly agree
here is a link to Survival Prep. you'll probably have to go hunt a bit to find the topic u need. i wouldn't wait.
http://goldismoney.info/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=141
"I very much like to see an article at TOD discussing this very issue, because I think about it a lot and I believe that in the end, the chief threat of peak oil is peak food.
I want to see discussed subtopics like food-safe containers, nitrogen or CO2 purged grains, dehydrated foods, vacuum packaging at home, cellaring, etc."
Perhaps someone from TOD should solicit such an article from Sharon/JewishFarmer. She is very knowledgable.
lilith
A while ago I too was curious about this sort of thing. Turns out there's a large group of knowledgeable people continually preparing for nuclear winter. Lots of good survival guides that are partially applicable to the situation under discussion. While radiation detection devices are irrelevant, advice like having something to heat food with, if not for nutritional necessity then for morale, is quite to the point.
I posted an idea for food dehydration a couple of weeks ago in another thread, I'll do a re-run. Suppose you have three vessels like pressure cookers daisychained,
____B_____ _________ _____E_____F / \ / \ / / \ / \ / +-------+ +-------+ +-------+ | | | | | | | A | | C | | D | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | +-------+ +-------+ +-------+A - vessel of warm water
B - valve
C - vessel of food to be dehydrated
D - condenser vessel
E - valve
F - faucet or steam aspirator
A faucet aspirator such as this can get down to 60mm hg, steam tables give a boiling point of water at 107 deg F for that pressure.
The operation I think would be to warm the whole apparatus to at least that temperature, maybe have the water in vessel A warmer yet. You start with valves B and E open, apply vacuum with aspirator F air purges from the system and is replaced with water vapor. Once air is purged, you close off valves B and E, and apply a low grade temperature differential to vessels C and D. Vessel C above the boiling point of water, and vessel D below, so you essentially have a vacuum distillation process.
The end goal is to dehydrate food at a temperature not much higher than ambient, and with little oxygen present. I think the physics of the idea are sound, not sure about the practicality. Air trapped in food may be a problem for the process.
I selected my little homestead because it's isolated, the community is small (150 folks in town), there is water, and it's where the old outlaws used to come to escape the law (Robber's Roost). We're 65 miles from the nearest Interstate and to the north, west, and south there are two 10,000 foot passes to be crossed and one at 9,000 feet. To the east there is 150 miles of desert with nothing between here and there. Our water for our fields comes from reservoirs and in my case from a small pond, fed by a year round stream, a mile and a half upstream from my place. All of our water systems are gravity systems and there are no diesel or electric pumps. My drinking water comes from a well, but I have ready access to drinking water from year round natural springs. The single drawback at my place is the poor soil quality, but, the county does have areas of good soil where lots of potatoes have been grown in the past.
I'm ex-Special Forces and retired from a career in Law Enforcement. I know my way around firearms and tactics, especially guerilla tactics. But, in this part of the country, my expertise is not at all unusual. Many here stock their winter food on the mountain taking Elk, Deer, or Buffalo. I would guess there are at least five or six weapons in every household in the county. In addition, any stranger would be immediately recognized. We're all familiar with livestock, and virtually the entire population grew up horseback and most still ride for their cows. So, good luck to the gang bangers that might come around looking for loot.
I live in a Mormon community where self reliance and food storage is strongly encouraged. The community is very strong and supportive of all during good times and bad. I'm quite comfortable here and I think as safe as safe can be if the worst happens. I hope that it doesn't. I enjoy the peace and quiet and uneventful living. Best from the Fremont
I think the more common issue than goons will be if a hungry mom and starving kids comes by, looking for a handout, or willing to work for ANYTHING. What do you do?
While in India, I learned quickly that you could never give a beggar anything, especially a child. With no encouragement a pack of kids would follow you everywhere you went. With any sign of money being handed out it would turn into a crowd, and extricating yourself from the throng would take work. The level of need was overwhelming.
Thanks for your comment, you appreciate the role of this exercise.
I am trying to work at two levels right now--household preparation and community scale. In fact, one project aims to do both at once. See:
http://www.willitsnews.com/ci_11336884
In addition, we have garden promotion/development projects, gleaning clubs, food preservation workshops, etc.
And thanks to Andre, aangel, for the J-I-T = "Just Isn't There" phrase.
I would add at least one extra layer: Determining if the location one is in right now is going to have a good chance of making it through the rough post-peak times. Moving may be the best course of action.
Yes, lots of discussion about that down my way (closer to San Francisco).
The Cannabis growers who must guard their crop are already in place. They won't cooperate with the police so long as Cannabis cultivation remains illegal. Legalize Cannabis & Mendocino County already has a militia proficient at agricultural defense.
This is a good thing to keep in mind if you go poking around off the main highways in Mendocino and Humbolt counties. Turning up the wrong driveway while looking for a wine tasting can lead to an entirely different experience.
In regard to Jason's use of a railway to bring in supplies - the North Coast Railroad Authority better get its act together before 12/12/09. There's much work to be done on the rail line, as well as some political problems south of there to solve before a train can run to Willits.
"I don't believe that it is realistic to expect that one can continue to live obviously much better than one's neighbors"
Extensive animal research has shown that extreme thinness (with proper micronutrients - protein, vitamins, minerals, EFA's, etc) is actually better for you. People live much longer. So, if you could tolerate the hunger, you could be quite healthy while looking starved...
" a stockpile of multi-vitamin & mineral tablets might make a big difference... the advisability and ease of storing beans and rice, which in combination supply complete protein."
It's remarkable how well that works. Put lab animals on very simple diets, with reduced calories and adequate micronutrients, and they thrive. This would be a very cheap and compact insurance against disaster of all kinds.
"People would be well advised to consider: what happens if my automobiles suddenly become idled due to lack of fuel? "
The best solution: a dual-fuel plug-in, like the Chevy Volt. Of course, that won't be widely available for 2-3 years. In the meantime, a Prius can be converted to a PHEV, for about $7K.
Well done!
"Human wastes are professionally handled and sold to farmers certified disease free."
The City of Calgary has for the past couple of decades recycled its sewage sludge onto farm fields around Calgary. The service is free to farmers and the City does the application with tanker trucks and wide-tire applicators. It is cheaper than other means of disposal, so the City considers it a cost-effective solution. Details at:
http://www.calgary.ca/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_104_0_0_35/htt...
There are problems with this. Sewage taken from centralized sewage plants is polluted with heavy metals and other things you do not want spread on fields used to grow food (ref: Humanure). However, human waste straight from the body is gold. Urine is more valuable than faeces from a plant nutrition POV (ref: Gardening When It Counts).
It depends upon the locality. The City of Austin has very low heavy metals in their sludge, low enough to be safe for use with gardening of food crops.
They sell theirs (mixed with composted leaves/wood chips) as Dillo Dirt.
Alan
...so what was the reaction to the presentation?
-are they busy building grain and bean silos or have you been dismissed as that "Nutty Future Historian"?!
I like the idea btw.
Regards, Nick.
The reaction was fantastic. In fact, that is why this was turned into a video and photo essay...people wanted to refer back to it and pass it on.
Jason,
I'm so glad you had a positive response and I am sure it has to do with the persistent work you have been doing in Willits over the years.
I am especially interested in the Food Security Report and would like to do one for Boulder. Can you provide me with more details?
Myrto Ashe (first and last name at yahoo dot com)
Congratulations on your presentation.
I hope your audience is inspired enough to actualy get up and make some preperations.
"Only a quarter of U.S. crude oil consumption was domestically produced in 2009."
You might want to correct that to 42%. Also, the US only gets 16% of it's oil from the Persian Gulf. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm
Also, don't forget that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve can replace 20% of our crude consumption for 6 months, so things won't get dicey nearly this quickly.
That's the good news. The bad news is that the idiots inside the Beltway will run around like a bunch of newly-headless chickens for about nine months before they come up with any constructive ideas about what to do.
the US only gets 16% of it's oil from the Persian Gulf.
True, but the Persian Gulf countries produce 28% of the world's oil. Once such a situation as Jason describes takes place, the rest of the world's supply will become immediately fungible, and we will be competing for it with Europe, China, India, etc. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Persian_Gulf/Background.html
"the Persian Gulf countries produce 28% of the world's oil."
Yes, and even if the US took a proportional cut, isn't that a very far cry from the 75% that the Original Post implies?
"rest of the world's supply will become immediately fungible"
Only partly. Some contracts will be honored: I suspect that Canada and Mexico (the US's largest suppliers) will pretty good about continuing to send their oil to the US. After all, it almost entirely goes by pipeline, and is enforced by NAFTA.
The bottom line: it's silly to suggest that the US wouldn't adequately prioritize basic freight and agricultural fuel, either by pricing or rationing, to keep them running.
Investments in Canada's tar sands have taken a $60 billion hit; Mexico is struggling to keep its oil production from completely falling off the chart, and they'll be an oil importer before too long.
Could the US "adequately prioritize basic freight and agricultural fuel"? Perhaps. But a sudden shock would create chaos that would take weeks or months to correct, if ever. Silly? It was silly a year ago to think that large established banks would have been on the chopping block. It was silly a year ago to think that we would be entering a depression. I too hope for the best outcome, but don't assume we will always attain that outcome.
"Investments in Canada's tar sands have taken a $60 billion hit; Mexico is struggling to keep its oil production from completely falling off the chart, and they'll be an oil importer before too long."
I'm not aware of any indications that reductions in new canadian investment in oil production will reduce their production - AFAIK this will just reduce growth. Mexico's production is falling, but it's exports won't have fallen much by December, 2009. Finally, please note that US imports are falling faster than Mexico's exports.
"a sudden shock would create chaos that would take weeks or months to correct, if ever. "
Don't forget the SPR: a loss of Persian Gulf oil would take at least 4 months to create physical shortages in the US, which is plenty of time to setup carpooling, telecommuting, rationing, etc to reduce overall consumption by the needed 25%. Heck we just reduced consumption by 10% - another 15% isn't that far. We reduced non-war-related consumption much more in WWII, and we could do it again.
Chaos would require mismanagement of basic management functions by both government and industry. It's possible, but not likely.
"It was silly a year ago to think that large established banks would have been on the chopping block. "
Given what we knew at the time, it would have been silly to say that it was certain, or even likely to happen on a specific date. OTOH, business cycles have been around for centuries - it would also have been silly to say that it was impossible, or even that it was unlikely to ever happen. And, in fact, no one was saying that. For example, I was just reading a BusinessWeek from early 2007, in which an analyst was saying talking about "the great moderation" in business cycles, and saying that so far the cratering of real estate seemed to not be spreading to the rest of the economy - even he acknowledged a risk that it would spread, and endanger the rest of the economy.
"I too hope for the best outcome, but don't assume we will always attain that outcome."
Sure. A Persian Gulf disaster would be enormously painful for the rest of the world, and it's deeply irresponsible for the US to have not planned for such a thing. OTOH, long-lasting shortages of transportation in the US for basic agricultural/industrial/commercial functions? Pretty unlikely.
This is not at all how I understand it from my reading of Oil Supply Security 2007 (IEA; http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?K=5L4GXF0NRJWF&LANG=EN).
If you don't want to pick that book up ($140), I recommend "The Plan" by Edwin Black. It has a good summary of how the IEA handles supply disruptions.
Thanks - looks like good info.
"This is not at all how I understand it from my reading of Oil Supply Security 2007"
I was, of course, oversimplifying. My point was that if the US were to lose 4M B/D in imports, as seems likely, that US refineries could be supplied by the SPR for about 200 days (800M capacity/4), or 6 months.
Now, of course, things would be much more complicated; price rationing would start immediately; other forms of rationing would be very close behind; a portion of the SPR would be held in reserve even in this situation; there would be very complex economic effects, etc, etc.
OTOH, it's very, very likely that we'd manage to continue to supply fuel to basic freight and food transportation, and supply farmers with diesel.
Nick, yes all those other actions would indeed occur, however, that's not how the drawdown works:
Yes, that's what I meant when I said I was oversimplifying, and that "a portion of the SPR would be held in reserve even in this situation". I didn't know the details - thanks for the info.
Again, the basic point is that the SPR would give more than enough time to switch to the equivalent of a war-time economy, and divert fuel away from light vehicle transportation to essential uses, such as agriculture, food transportation, utility maintenance, rail diesel, etc.
As Alan Drake notes, it would take weeks to a very few months to divert 50% of long-haul trucking to rail.
" the Persian Gulf countries produce 28% of the world's oil. "
Another statistical thought: as Geoffrey often tells us, Persian Gulf exporters consume some of their production. If they consume 30% of their production, and this consumption disappeared along with their production, the reduction in oil for the rest of the world would be 22%.
One other detail: a war which destroyed the oil ports would also wipe out the hostile people who own them. If the US military still had a strong presence in the region, it would be perfectly situated to march in, take over and start cleaning up under US ownership. With the domestic consumption gone, the Export Land model would no longer apply.
Let's take (I hope) one last swing at the math.
The Persian Gulf produced roughly 24M bpd in 06, and exported roughly 18. so, the rest of the world consumed roughly 78M, and 18M was imported from the PG.
Now, the market needs at least 4M, and perhaps 6M less now than then. Call it 4M.
That means the world is consuming about 74M and needs 14M from the PG. That's about 19%.
Not far from the US's % of 16-17%, and not a large % reduction to handle with emergency measures.
That assumes that all Non-OPEC producers are exporting at the same level, when in fact most are trending down. And relying on the SPR to instantly make up for any shortfall is optimism at its extreme limits. This has never been attempted, nor is there any evidence that such a fast transition could take place.
"That assumes that all Non-OPEC producers are exporting at the same level, when in fact most are trending down. "
They look pretty stable to me. I look at Rembrandt's latest compilation: Chart 13: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2008. There was a temporary glitch in the US in late 08 (see Chart 90: United States Production January 2005 - Nov. 2008), but it looks like overall production is pretty stable.
"And relying on the SPR to instantly make up for any shortfall is optimism at its extreme limits. "
Well, that's precisely what it was designed for. Of course, there will be glitches with distribution, distillate mix (gas vs diesel), etc, etc. - no sensible person wants to go through such an experience - but overall, why shouldn't it work the way it was designed? Do you have any specific evidence that such a fast transition can't take place?
why shouldn't it work the way it was designed?
Murphy's Law, especially in US crisis management situations.
Do you have any specific evidence that such a fast transition can't take place?
Instead of asking someone to prove a negative, you first need to provide evidence to support your assertion, beyond "it was designed to". Have there been any large scale releases that actually have tested the SPR in manner that would meet the performance metrics that you have described above?
"Instead of asking someone to prove a negative, you first need to provide evidence to support your assertion, beyond "it was designed to". "
Well, of course, the more info the better. OTOH, 1) if someone presents you with someone specifically designed, over many years and at great cost, to do a specific function, it's helpful to provide more specific feedback than "you never know, things can go wrong", and 2) obviously, evidence would be hard to provide for a new situation. Let me rephrase that, and just ask: do you have any specific areas of concern?
"Have there been any large scale releases that actually have tested the SPR in manner that would meet the performance metrics that you have described above?
Sure - there have been many releases, mostly during hurricanes. The logistics of releasing the SPR oil, and getting it to refiners is pretty well tested. Obviously, as I acknowledged previously, there will be unforeseen problems in a new situation, where the full capacity of the SPR is needed for months - the most obvious is the mix of diesel vs gasoline, which will require some quick re-jiggering by both refiners and consumers. Obviously, it would be desirable to avoid using one's backup plan, just as backing up one's PC hard drive doesn't make one eager to have one's PC stolen. But still, it's there, and there's no reason that I know of that it won't work adequately well.
So, there is evidence that it works. Do you have any specific concerns that it won't?
if someone presents you with someone specifically designed, over many years and at great cost, to do a specific function, it's helpful to provide more specific feedback than "you never know, things can go wrong"
So you're saying "if money has been invested, it has to work". Having been in engineering for 25 years, I have a completely different perspective.
I asked "Have there been any large scale releases that actually have tested the SPR in manner that would meet the performance metrics that you have described above?"
You responded;
Sure - there have been many releases, mostly during hurricanes.
So let's look at your statement from above;
US refineries could be supplied by the SPR for about 200 days (800M capacity/4)
How are refiners getting their crude oil now? With what specific infrastructure would this 800M in capacity be transferred to refiners?
The total amount of oil in the SPR is 700M, not 800M. And of that, only 280M is sweet crude, the rest is sour, which few refineries are capable of handling in large quantities.
http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html
Let's take it one step further;
Maximum SPR drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
- http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/spr/spr-facts.html
So we see that a maximum of 120 million barrels per month could be drawn down; that doesn't even include distribution bottlenecks.
hmmm. I think we're starting to beat this horse to death. Well, here we go.
"So you're saying "if money has been invested, it has to work". "
Not at all. I said that this provides some reasonable basis for thinking it will work, and if you disagree, it would help to provide specific reasons.
"Having been in engineering for 25 years, I have a completely different perspective."
I've got some relevant qualifications & experience I can mention, but it doesn't really matter, does it? Who should be more qualified than Yergin and Cheney, and who believes them? No, it's the specific info we provide here to support our arguments that matters.
"With what specific infrastructure would this 800M in capacity be transferred to refiners?"
I don't understand your point. Are you disagreeing that SPR oil has been sued in emergencies many times in the past, and the procedures & equipment (pipelines, comm, etc) are tested in place?
"The total amount of oil in the SPR is 700M, not 800M. "
That's the old number. More has been authorized - I suspect we'll be close to 800 by Dec 09.
more later...
The four SPRs (fifth smaller one planned for near Mississippi coast) are near (or in the middle of) the #1 and #2 refining complexes in the USA and near water transportation (and several crude pipelines). (<1% of SPR is in the form of heating oil in the Northeast).
I could well believe that real world maximum drawdowns are, say, 90% of spec (pumps break down, confusion, available non-SPR oil is rich in sour creating bad match with refineries, etc.).
Assuming a non-hurricane release due to, say, Straits of Hormuz being blocked, there will be an excess of refining capacity. SPR will be drawn down in a USA (and likely world) with reduced oil consumption, so there will be an excess of refining capacity. This makes matching SPR release oil with available refineries easier.
Thick, sour crude tends to have a higher % yield of diesel vs. gasoline, which is exactly what the economy needs for essential functions.
Another issue is getting crude to the refineries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries#United_States
Perhaps residual imports will be directed to California. Phoenix can draw on either California or inland Texas refineries (unsure about Houston Texas), so forcing Phoenix to "make do" with whatever it can get from Texas will free up product for California.
LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port) is the only US port for oil supertankers. The SPR between New Orleans and Baton Rouge can fed into that same network. All four SPRs are accessible by barge via SPR pipelines and barges can serve the entire Gulf Coast and Mississippi River Valley (MidWest).
As noted, maximum SPR releases will likely (IMHO) be slightly less in the real world than spec, but not enough to really matter. Ramping up to 4.15 million b/day after 17 days will just make it last a little longer.
Oil product shortages will NOT be evenly and fairly spread out in case of the loss of 3 to 5 million b/day of imports. We would have to invest even more in the SPR if that was our goal.
IMHO, the West Coast and Hawaii are especially vulnerable, with the Northeast only slightly less so. When the SPR was planned, Alaskan production was 2 million b/day and the North Sea production was increasing every year. Alaskan plus California oil would take care of the West Coast (in 1980s) so no need for an SPR there (back then).
Now that Alaskan production is <1 million b/day (and falling) and West Coast oil demand has increased, I see a need for an SPR there more than one in Mississippi. But the Governor of Mississippi was former chairman of the GOP, two senior R senators, reliable Red State, etc.
The bigger issue is not the SPR, which is designed for acute shortages that will disappear in time, but chronic shortages that will last and get deeper.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Thanks Alan, this speaks to the issues I mentioned. My concern revolved around the risks inherent in a process that has never be exercised anywhere near its performance estimates. The largest withdrawal was 30M over 2 months, and the withdrawal rate that Nick was talking about is 8 times that. And with the majority of crude stored in the SPR as sour crude (only 280M is sweet crude), my concern is that sour crude handling and refining capacity could be a seriously limiting bottleneck.
Well, just to beat this horse to death a little further:
"the withdrawal rate that Nick was talking about is 8 times that"
That's the same withdrawal rate Alan is talking about. I think it's clear he feels that it is likely to work reasonably well: at about 90% of spec.
"my concern is that sour crude handling and refining capacity could be a seriously limiting bottleneck."
I think Alan is saying that it would be a problem (as did I), but not an enormous one. Another way of looking at it: the SPR wouldn't release at full bore until exhausted (as detailed by aangel in another comment). Instead, it would release at maximum for a period, then start to ratchet down. The obvious solution is to release oil at the optimum mix of sweet to sour for the initial period, and then take the reductions from the sweet portion. That way, refineries would be used optimally.
Again: the basic point is that the SPR would give enough time to switch to the equivalent of a war-time economy, and divert fuel away from light vehicle transportation to essential uses, such as agriculture, food transportation, utility maintenance, rail diesel, etc.
As Jason has acknowledged, the scenario of the Original Post isn't likely. It's worth noting that it would require both destruction of the Persian Gulf, and extraordinary mismanagement of implementation of emergency plans.
Please don't misunderstand me: I think the "current occupant" as well as his predecessors have been deeply negligent in allowing us to become so dependent on oil imports, and I thing that strong and urgent action is needed to fix it. I just don't want people to think that extraordinary "survivalist" actions are needed, such as subsistence farming: it's doing enough to do the relatively normal actions of daily life, like buying a Prius, deeply insulating one's home, and educating one's friends and representatives on the problem.
Thanks Alan, for the clarifying detail.
"The bigger issue is not the SPR, which is designed for acute shortages that will disappear in time, but chronic shortages that will last and get deeper."
I agree. Oddly, it's easier to mobilize people for an emergency. Political and business leaders are willing to mislead the public, and let our situation gradually deteriorate in the long-term, for short-term gain.
In this scenario, we might actually be better off in the long-run, as we moved to electrify transportation and space heating on an emergency basis.
I don't think anybody can give an exact figure for domestic production percentage in 2009.
PT in PA
True. Domestic production has been pretty stable, while imports have been dropping quickly. The % is probably above 45% now.
Don't count on the SPR for that 20%. It's already promised to the military.
No question the military would have first call. The very roughly 7% of US oil consumption used by the military would be part of "core" consumption, to which such things as commuter gasoline would have to defer. Other core consumption would be the 3% for ag, .5% for utility maintenance, most of the 12% for commercial diesel (not all - long haul trucks could slow down and conserve 20%).
The 45% used for ordinary light vehicle transportation (commuting, shopping,etc.) would get the brunt of the reductions. It wouldn't be that difficult: carpooling, telecommuting, online shopping, and so on.
During WW II, 90% of the ton-miles were by train.
Alan
Good point.
I was thinking of what could be done in days, or weeks, but no question that over months or years most long-haul trucking would disappear, to be replaced by trains.
Any guess as to how long it would take to move, say, 50% of freight now handled by long-haul trucking to rail?
With the recession, not long. Spare capacity on the rails ATM.
http://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/1990s-railroads4.htm
Note that small amounts of diesel are still needed for refrigeration (until electrified).
Under what scenario (BAU, Great Depression II, emergency after oil shock) are you talking ?
Clear off consumer goods and some industrial supplies from the rails and food can be moved !#
# Good management required. FEMA control and many will starve.
Alan
"With the recession, not long. Spare capacity on the rails ATM."
Ah. So, sounds like a matter of weeks or a few months.
"Under what scenario (BAU, Great Depression II, emergency after oil shock) are you talking ?"
Emergency after oil shock.
"Clear off consumer goods and some industrial supplies from the rails and food can be moved !"
Yeah. It's unrealistic to imagine food won't get moved.
"FEMA control and many will starve."
I think it's fair to say that the recent "occupant" essentially deliberately sabotaged FEMA, to discredit government. One hopes this is an historical aberration.
Grain already moves by rail and barge. Grain > flour + heat > bread.
Make shift coarse ground flour with new local milling machines that are easy for a local machine shop to fabricate.
Communal baking is energy efficient (I have also heard of solar baking with mirrors). Access to enough natural gas to bake bread should not be an issue.
I live 7 blocks from a bakery that air freights their bread over the country (REALLY ! I saw some in Phoenix). Supplies most of the local restaurants as well. Leidenheimer
http://www.leidenheimer.com/
http://www.leidenheimer.com/national_dist.htm
Commandeer local grain elevator, barges or rail cars and bread will not be a problem in New Orleans.
We are close to major rice production, sugar cane grows easily in our yards, fishing requires diesel today, but underfishing will soon give a high return of food/gallon. Non-oil fishing methods may come back.
I am also about 6 blocks from Brown's Dairy. Raw milk from area (<50 miles) cows.
Our local cuisine is adapted to what grows locally and what sail ships & paddle wheel river steamers could bring in.
Best Hopes for Traditional Cuisine,
Alan
Nick,
I appreciate your critical eye and support of arguments with numbers, so maybe you can explain the DOE numbers to us simple folk.
The United States consumed 20.7 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2007 making us the world’s largest petroleum consumer. The United States was third in crude oil production at 5.1 MMbd. But crude oil alone does not constitute all U.S. petroleum supplies. Significant gains occur, because crude oil expands in the refining process, liquid fuel is captured in the processing of natural gas, and we have other sources of liquid fuel, including biofuels. These additional supplies totaled 3.6 MMbd in 2007. However, we still needed 13.5 MMbd of imported crude oil and petroleum products to meet U.S. demand. The United States also exported 1.4 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products during 2007, so our net imports (imports minus exports) equaled 12.0 MMbd.
As I read this, we produce 5.1 MMbd of crude, and we import a net 12.0 MMbd of crude and products (Though I'm not sure about the sig figs...13.5-1.4 = 12.1. Close enough?). Simple math gives 5.1/(5.1+12.0)= 29.8%. (Suggesting we import 70% of our crude.)
Admittedly, "crude oil expands in the refining process". To get the 5.1 to represent 42% would mean an expansion of (5.1 + x)/(17.1 + x)=0.42, yielding a value of 3.59 for "x". So the 5.1 MMbd expands to 8.7, or 71%. That would be significant. But hard to believe.
Based on :
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_l...
The average importation of "crude" was 9.0 mmbd for 2008 from the top 15 sources.
5.1/(5.1 + 9) = 36% domestic (or 64% imported). Correcting for exports might change things:
5.1/(5.1 + 9 - 1.4) = 40% (60% imported), but we're getting some big unknowns...
Bottom line...I don't understand these numbers. I've read TWIP for some time, and I always get a little uneasy trying to close all the calculations. I suspect that disruptions in foreign supplies will make it very difficult to expand out domestic 5.1. Further, any addition of ethanol to volume comes at the expense of the original oil and energy content.
so...Anyone care to cast some precision and accuracy on the DOE on the values?
-dr
ps..can you imagine what kind of shjt would have to hit the fan to fully open the gates of the SPR?
If it's really big, all the stockpiles in the 28 or so IEA members would be brought to bear. They would institute reduction programs, primarily in transportation, they would release oil to the market (because oil is fungible that would bring the price down) and finally they would actually physically send oil where needed.
This is triggered when a supply disruption is 7% or greater for a country's oil usage and it was done after Hurricane Katrina hit. The decision to activate the plan was made within 10 hours, despite the countries being in 16 different time zones.
We produced 5.1 million barrels per day, or 5.1M B/D (to use a nomenclature that makes more sense to me....) of crude. We produced 3.6 M of other liquids (including Natural Gas Liquids, biofuels and refinery expansion (to oversimplify, it's adding Natural Gas to crude oil)). That's a total of 8.7M B/D of domestic production.
In addition, we imported a net of 12M B/D of crude and petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, etc). That's a total of about 20.5 M B/D.
Divide 8.7 by 20.5, and you get 42%.
Finally, our consumption has dropped lately to roughly 19.5 M B/D, so the % of domestic production has risen.
Does that help?
"can you imagine what kind of shjt would have to hit the fan to fully open the gates of the SPR?"
Well, the destruction of the Persian Gulf would certainly do it...
yup,helps, but I need to spread all this numbers out in Excel. I wouldn't believe that our guvment would mislead us, so there must be some truth to the 42%.
According to
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/feature_articles/2008/ngi...
we imported net 3.5 trillion cf of gas in '06...this works out to 1.7 M b/d at 5600 cf/bbl. Where does this fit in the accounting scheme?
Sorry to be off-topic!
-dr
NG doesn't really fit into the oil/petroleum statistics we've been talking about.
IIRC, the US imports about 15% of it's NG. FWIW, most of those imports come from Canada. Nevertheless, it's worth remembering that much of incremental consumption will come from imports.
Hi,
And if you include Canadian exports of 2.3 MB/D - which are not going to be disrupted in this scenario - you get to 11MB/D available. With a reasonable assumption that 20% of consumption is already discresionary, that means that the actual gap becomes 4-5 MB/D.
If per-capita oil use were scaled back to European levels, the USA/Canada area would be a net petroleum exporter..
Now, if this article was re-written from the perspective of Japan, which has basically zero oil production, no big nearby oil exporters and a very big middle east dependance, as well as a big population relative to agricultural area, you may be onto something.
This doesn't take into account the further economic hammering caused by the certain spike in oil prices far above the $147 we experienced last year.
Having the US scale back to European levels is easy to say, but a far cry from any reality most Americans could envision or support.
If 20% of consumption was "reasonably assumed" to be discretionary, we'd have seen in when prices were over $120/bbl. So "discretionary" can mean different things to different people, as some might say much more, or much less, depending on whom you were asking.
"Having the US scale back to European levels is easy to say, but a far cry from any reality most Americans could envision or support. "
Americans will support a lot of deprivation on an emergency basis.
"If 20% of consumption was "reasonably assumed" to be discretionary, we'd have seen in when prices were over $120/bbl."
We began to. That's the main reason oil prices crashed: demand was starting to respond to prices (here's an interesting discussion of that by well-known speculator and PO enthusiast Richard Rainwater - http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1812073,00.html ). Of course, prices didn't stay at that level for very long, and then the credit crunch took over as a cause of lower consumption.
In the long-run (roughly 20 years, which is a longer window than Rainwater is considering), $120 oil would crush oil demand - there are too many cheaper substitutes (primarily electrification).
Kudos, Jason, on a wake-up call to your local leaders, an example we should all be following.
I might also point out that even a limited nuclear war can have devastating impacts on the climate, which would make the Year without Summer after the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption seem like a day at the beach...
Regional nuclear war could devastate global climate - PhysOrg.com
Jason -- great contribution, TOD at its best.
I'll be back later when I've found something to gripe about!
Great story Jason!
But I have to ask: Did Jason copy James Kunstlers book "World Made By Hand" because this story is almost too similar to Kunstlers book - which is great by the way. Future is not what you expect...
Well, I was with Jason when the idea was raised and we briefly discussed the outline of the story before Jason fleshed out the whole deal.
He could have stolen several points from Kunstler when I wasn't looking ;-) but there are only so many ways a society can contract. (Expansion is another matter entirely.)
Here's some lowdown on how human waste used to be 'professionally handled' in Japan until approx. three generations ago:
- from Alan MacFarlane's website (section: THE EXCREMENTAL CHAIN):
http://www.alanmacfarlane.com/savage/DUNG.PDF.
A model for Mendocino Country Anno 2020?
Probably not a good model, as it discards the energy value of the organic fractions. Anaerobic digestion could produce heating and cooking fuel on-site (as well as reduce the pathogen load), and the product of the digesters would then be used as fertilizer (perhaps after pasteurization to kill any remaining pathogens).
Edit: Biogas could be stored in balloons (heat-welded poly film will do) and used to supply limited amounts of transport fuel during periods when heat isn't required. WWII Britain is an example (though town gas was used instead of biogas).
Perhaps because his posts are a load of sh*t?!
Robin,
If you wish to contact me, my email is:
copeland@pt.lu
More about me here:
http://www.globalidiot.net/ft01.html
In the next county to the East we have started
The Food Garden Project
A local community based cooperative dedicated to:
The YEAR ROUND
Sustainable Production / Cultivation
Storage
Preparation
Distribution/Sharing
Nutritional Analysis
Seed Storage
OF:
Locally adaptable and sustainably grown foods
Grains
Vegetables
Fruits
Nuts
Tubers
Herbs … etc.
Contact - foodgardenproject@yahoo.com for information and date/time of next meeting
Excellent article and discussion.
Today Kunstler excells as well: "As the primary resource of industrial capitalism reached its all-time production peak in 2005, the managers of the US economy allowed borrowing-from-the-future to replace productive activity as the basis for everyday life"
Like most of these envisaged solutions this one looks very vegetarian. Many white people are genetically set up to be mainly meat-eaters. I wonder how many of the current locals could really get by as forced veggies? I bet most aren't right now.
To come up with my ca. 1 acre per person estimate I did a bottom up assessment of land needs based on a mixed diet. See: http://www.energyfarms.net/node/1489
This diet includes meats, dairy and eggs, but less than what the current population has now. It is easy to need 2-3 acres per person if you go heavier on the kind of animal products that require grain, but a little bit of meat actually feeds more people because ruminants can eat low quality forage, which includes upland grass that can't be tilled. The conversion rate of acres to calories is extremely low but Mendocino County has a lot of this kind of land. See the discussion in the link above for more details. I could do a whole post on this stuff.
(duplicate removed)
Jason,
It's understandable that a rural region would focus on food, but not much oil is used for food production(3%?) or all long distance truck transport(12%) or for all rail transport(1%). If the US had to rely on the approximately 10 million barrels per day from N America( a 50% reduction), the real problems will be for private gasoline powered transportation not food or essential goods transportation.
Growing food locally is not going to save a great deal of oil, introducing gasoline rationing is going to save a lot but will mean that people will have to plan trips, car-pool, use public transport, walk or only drive the the smaller car. Food availability will be the least of most peoples worries. It would not take a lot of diesel to grow and move the grain now used for animal feed to feed a city of one million, 1,000 km away(300,000 tonnes per year)
Buying a fuel efficient vehicle is probably the best thing that most people can do. Although US is in a financial"crisis" still buying >10Million new vehicles a year, almost a record number of people actually have jobs, so no reason why people can not make the shift, with a little leadership to force Detroit to provide the vehicles.
I am not sure how lover oil and food prices would cause third world, rural countries to be worse off today than a year ago? None the less, many events could cause a loss of middle east oil, so the idea is plausible.
"Buying a fuel efficient vehicle is probably the best thing that most people can do. "
Sure. Buy a Prius, and reduce your fuel needs by 50%. Even if gas goes to $10, you'll be able to afford basic driving.
OTOH, if fuel started to suffer physical shortages, it would take only $1-4,000 (depending on how much you do yourself) to add a plug and a few batteries, to be able to drive 5-10 miles on electricity.
That's true, which is why there is soooo much scope to cope with peak oil through conservation measures. That's why I believe that our generation, and our children's generation, will be alright, but that as oil really "runs out" mankind will move inexorably into a post-industrial era that will go hand in hand with a much lower population.
Tell your children not to breed.
In theory I believe you are correct--there is no need to starve or even have this sort of reaction to an oil supply shock. However, I have no idea if governments are prepared for the loss of the financial services industry and the short time horizon in which rationing and distribution systems need to be in place in order not to descend into chaos.
Every elected official or government administrator I have spoken to about this topic has been either in dismissive denial or think I might have put a finger on an overlooked problem...if they do believe me they may then be flabbergasted because it is so enormous, and how do they even start to deal with something like this?
The lower food prices are having the effect of reducing the acres planted and the level of inputs such as fertilizer or irrigation water per acre. This is likely to mean lower yields, which could lead to a new prices spike. Furthermore, the poorest countries are still seeing their currencies hammered and while the lower commodity prices are a breather their purchasing power may not be improved. Right now a lot of food is sitting in ports, unable to move, because of the credit problem.
See this radio show for more details: http://globalpublicmedia.com/reality_report_ben_gisin_of_touch_the_soil_...
Jason (and others),
My main interest is in the county's population carrying capacity. Have you guys made any calculations for different crops or crop mixes?
According to Wikipedia, the potato is the winner:
.
I can't find off hand any data for fruit and vegetables. But I reckon most of them fare pretty badly in comparison, so their main virtue is their variety as such rather than anything else.
Off hand I'd give veggies an average of 100-150 calories per pound and ca. 20,000 lbs per acre for a yield of ca. 2-3 millions calories per acre. However, because the caloric density of veggies is low, you would have to eat an enormous quantity per day to survive and be urinating all that water out like a race horse.
For example, to get the 2400 calories you would care to eat in a day on something like kale (ca. 220 calories per pound) would require you to eat 11 lbs of the stuff. Sunflower seeds have more like 2400 calories per pound so you only need a pound of them. Potatoes have ca. 350 calories per pound so you need less than 7 lbs, which is just manageable with the human stomach.
We do have monkey and ape relatives that eat a lot of leaves and have extra stomach compartments but, alas, we can't survive on their diets.
Thanks for your reply, Jason. Perhaps olives are the solution.
Bedtime for me now in Central Europe ....
Don't forget: a varied diet does several things: ensures a spread of macro and micronutrients, avoids depletion of soils (you can't grow potatoes 4 years in a row, or even sunflower seeds 2 years in a row without depleting soilnutrients and cumulation plant-diseases), in some circumstances enhances production per acre through companionplanting/intercropping, but perhaps more importantly: ensures year-round production and improves overall morale.
I can't imagine having to eat potatoes 2x a day year round.
I thought the Irish grew potatoes (and little else) for many years in a row. Their mistake was to use varieties that weren't blight-resistant.
There will be many things we can't imagine, of which eating potatoes 2x a day will be a minor.
Did anyone try to distribute blight-resistant cultivars to the Irish?
Previous discussion about the requirements for blight to take hold on potatoes (and tomatoes?) fascinated me. It suggests that a raised plastic cover with a bit of plumbing to distribute rainwater to the ground without touching the leaves would eliminate blight without chemical applications.
Most greens are less calorie dense than kale, some that aren't normally considered vegetables are actually higher, nettle leaves about 360 calories/lb, grape leaves about 420 calories/lb, willow leaves about 520. Not considering the calories, greens like kale have a much broader spectrum of essential and non-essential nutrients than potatoes.
Have you ever tried to dry leafy greens? If so did you get a usable end product? That should make them more calorie dense.
I think its doable, just difficult. The anthropoid apes have a scrawny little caecum like us, its more functional in other primates.
Thanks Jason ...
Perhaps each county could do the same
From your chart we can see that Grains , Beans and Oil , supply the most calories
I would suggest all counties look into Grain Corn , Potatoes , dry beans and vege oil production
OK . . . here I go - my first, rather timid comment to anything on TOD (which I've been reading from time to time for a few years). Thank you Jason! I just finished reading your story and every comment. Whew!
I, too, am in Mendoland, having lived here 30+ years a few miles south of the town of Willits. For those of you that aren't in a Mediterranean climate (like we are here in California) you may not understand how completely dry it gets here during the summer. Not only is there no rain from May often through October, there's almost no humidity either. Whatever water gets into the soil, quickly evaporates within a very few days. So being able to grow anything here without irrigation is sort of like a miracle.
We've been experimenting with growing grain in the winter, very small scale. The good thing is that we've grown barley two years in a row through the winter and harvested it in early July, without *any* irrigation. These last two years were very dry in the spring, so that makes our grain harvests all the more amazing (at least to us). We're growing oats, barley and wheat right now while our weather is cold and wet (still very small scale), and we don't plan to irrigate any of it when the dry weather comes - we'll see what happens. I've heard grains were grown in this county through the winters in the 1800s & early 1900s and I know there are others around here who are now experimenting like we are. Oh I forgot to mention the bad thing . . . the turkeys got more than half our harvest this year, but in desperate times I don't think they'd be much of a problem :-)
We also grew onions last winter which we harvested in late June, and never irrigated. We grow garlic in the winter every year, but we have always irrigated that during dry weather before harvest in the middle of June. I may experiment this year to see how some of it does without irrigation.
Something that I didn't see mentioned in Jason's story, or in any of the comments, is the use of native foods, such as Acorns. Most of us aren't accustomed to the taste, but there is a neat little local book "Acorns and Eat 'em" by Suellen Ocean that was published in Potter Valley in the early 1990s that's full of recipes and information on Oaks & Acorns. In desperate times taste isn't likely to be a major factor. There are a lot of Oak trees in Mendocino Co. and several different species. People here could certainly supplement their diets with acorns if they needed to. Next to Salmon, Acorns were a main staple of the Native People here in the old days.
OK, that's it. It's time for me to be asleep.
~ GF
HI Grayfox,
Hope to see you around town sometime.
Like you, I have been growing grains on a small scale without irrigation. These plants are totally adapted to our climate being cool season grasses. Mendocino County used to have its own grain mills that farmers would sell to, even in "Little Lake Valley" which is a seasonal lake in the northern section. I estimate about 4000 of the 12,000 acres here is too wet to plant with annuals, but makes a nice summer pasture.
There's a farm in Garberville (similar climate to us, about 90 miles north) that dry land farms summer crops. The key is planting while soil moisture is still close enough to the surface so that seeds can germinate and seek deeper sources of water, keep out competing weeds that suck moisture, and space the plants out generously. They do tomatoes, corn, squash and beans without any irrigation and plant in late May and early June!
the turkeys got more than half our harvest this year
The spring season starts March 27 and runs to May 2. The limit is one bearded turkey per day, three per season.
http://www.californiagameandfish.com/hunting/turkey-hunting/ca_aa030704a...
And you probably already know that Mendocino is a top turkey hunting area.
One final thought before this thread goes to sleep:
I think one thing that is obvious from this discussion is that a gradual, planned transition would clearly be preferable to a sudden, crisis-driven one.
Unfortunately, except for a few bits and pieces, here and there, we have yet to see anything that resembles a planned transition even getting started. In other words, we have squandered our opportunities up to now, and still are, and most likely will continue to do so.
Thus, it is quite possible that it will take a sudden and unexpected crisis to force our society into a transition mode. When that happens, we can only hope that most communities do as well as Jason's in his fictional story.
first 10 pounds of hutterite soup bean seed arrived yesterday more is coming so i guess i will try to plant some. solar panels are on the way portable 200 watts total. gallon of stuff to make bokashi. I don't have a chain saw last time I went out with a chain saw I got rocks thrown
at me I want to build a still to make pesticide from wood. the illinois department of agriculture was positive about that.
bought stock in hev, uqm, fcel, ener, aes.
volunteer for heifer project
contributor to repower America waiting for t shirt.
support pickens plan is there a plan? no communication means fail, they want fail. seems every one wants fail.
Jason - Is it possible to get a dvd made of this? (Or maybe there's a way of tweaking that .mov file.) Could be most useful for showing to farmers local to here (or at least relatively local as I'm in centre of a city of 1 million). That might convince them rather more than just me showing them some charts etc. (All UK farms will have computers and internet but it's always more convenient to have something that just runs idiot-proofically.)
For a DVD please call 707-456-9005 and ask for Cyndee or Patty. Or email mendofoodfutures@gmail.com
Well done Jason!
Brilliant format, if you just say"this is going to happen" you invite skeptics, if you say Imagine a future remembering, it takes us out of judge, and into imagineer!
We have been Imagineering a bit here on a
300 acre transitional farm, that is trying to imagine it's way into being an eco-village, and intentional community.
our dry farming produced more tomatoes than we could eat or distribute. The FAVA beans are awesome. Mulch and Compost can almost eliminate the need to till.
We compost foodwaste from local farm-stores and Whole Foods, hot to worm.
stockpiling worm compost for 8 years now.
amazing stuff. next is Rainwater harvest,
more swales and humanure systems.I am working on composting animal wastes(guts, bones etc.) rather than feeding them into the local eco -system that is already over-run with coons.( another potential food source along with our wild turkey herd)
we make kim chee and sourcrout from vegetables that keeps months out of refrigeration, and does not require sterilization to make.Gophers got 90% of the potatoes however.
I don't buy the whole urban gorilla hummer redneck fear people are panicking about here. Americans for hundreds of years, have historically jumped to HELP each other in emergency.Remember the Vulture! they throw up on opponents! we can make up a stew that will send them looking for new clothing , super soakers
have reached a whole new respect!!
Paint guns to! then there's super medicines!! this could be fun, I'm setting up a still! when the rednecks come home naked and drunk, with cases of booze and good hooch, we'll have um all lining up to trade canned goods and diesel for fresh vegetables,and homebrew.Yeah baby!
and as to "is it real" are we really out of oil" friggin WHO CARES anybody else OVER Cadillac S.U.V.'s yuk send all the cars to Texas!!we could have a huge arena,where folks could drive around in circles like bumper cars!!Fix um paint um, bend um fix um paint um bend um rrrrrrrrrr! wheeee
We are low income dumpster divers, one thing most people do not realize is that right now, we DISCARD 60% of our food.Everybody always says "ooh doesn't the FOOD BANK get all that NAH 1% at best
beleive me ,every Safeway discards enough food to feed a village every day!!
I've been composting for 25 years and I've seen it all. the health food stores are right in there to. only W.F. composts, and that needs work. They and goodwill are merchants who are afraid you will get free stuff, and stop buying their precious product.Goodwill in San Rafael Ca. has a 10,000 dollar yearly dumpster bill!
If theres a big fuss, the rednecks will be running around to food storage facilities shooting at Latino workers .
Who will probably be smart enough to be long gone with adequate food.
Retreat centers will most likely have quite a bit of junk food stored up!
yum! swiss miss n brandy at midnight with yr rifle on your lap ,what fun
watching gilligan island re-runs on a solar powered vcr!!snuggling up in some of goodwills discarded quilts. what a life!
think I'll try to kayak to hawaii!
Nicofrog
This post ignores one reality - the world is fast running out of gas. Peak gas will be much worse than peak oil... natural gas is the feedstock for commercial fertilizer. With commercial fertilizer, made from abundant natural gas, we can feed more than 6.5 Billion people. Without it, about 1.5 Billion. No matter what the gangs do, the world population will go down to about 1 Billion, giver or take 250,000,000.
Medicino County as a few farmers who defend their farms. When push comes to shove, they will be growing real tomatoes, instead of hanging xmas ornaments on their pot plants. And real potatoes, beans, corn, etc. AND, they already have weapons, dogs, and organization.
So... what does the thug who comes into Medicino County do? Answer: they go to Fresno!