Edited to remove excessive quoting, and add a link.

This story was discussed in yesterday's DrumBeat, and is featured in Gail's new post today.

This Telegraph article is based on the notion that none of the Eastern European and Asian economies are viable and will all default. Russian companies have taken out over $440 billion US in loans from western banks, this includes over $60 billion by Gazprom. Gazprom will not default on its debts and neither will the other companies that are servicing the Russian domestic market (real estate may have collapsed in the west but not in Russia, where mortgages are a novelty and the baseline demand is high due to inadequate existing stock). Unlike 1998, the Russian currency is not propped up with a pyramid scheme of government bonds and interest rates in the 150% range so there will be no repeat of the previous default scenario where the exchange rate went up by a factor of 10 in a few months as the pyramid collapsed. The easy borrowing days for Russian companies are over for now, but since the economy is not saturated in terms of development and not a debt driven bubble this is not going to translate into a collapse of domestic demand. I think the same thing applies to China in spite of its greater exposure via its highly developed export market (which Russia does not have).

Friday AM, DJIA/S&P/Nasdaq futures limit down.

Friday 350PM E DJIA at -167. 4PM E at -312. Volume at almost
pre Holiday levels.

Friday Evening Futures Limit Down. Where they are today.

The only question left is how many times the US can pull this trick.

"There will always be dancing."

And when unemployment hits 20%, a lot of people will have a lot of free time to dance.

Hi kriscan,

If that's you on the tube, remember the old saying in the music biz:

"Don't give up your day job".

Seriously, I agree with you and applaud your efforts to get the message out. The recent meltdown has diverted people's attention from the main long term problems of Peak Oil and Climate Change. Maybe after the election as the winter cold sinks in, people will turn back to the ultimate concerns of sustainable survival. One can only hope that rational thinking will take hold, instead of the Law of the Jungle and/or religious superstition...

E. Swanson

Kris...thanks for putting things in perspective. A good thing to remember amongst the panic.

As usual, thanks. The usual bright spot amongst the dismal.

Yes a US attack on Iran right now is basically a freebie as far as oil prices go.

Also with the current flight to safety and attack would cause a rush to US Treasuries.

This will further strengthen the dollar allow the US to literally print like mad with little side effects.

And of course a ware will stimulate the economy.

Now of course this is all by chance.

Thanks, airdale,
for your contribution. As usual, the problem lies in separating the wheat from the chaff, in this case not religion as practiced in various communities, but how those messages are used to justify and propagate destructive, divisive actions.

It's only human to find ourselves in us-vs.-them contests, but when those feelings are systematically exploited to trick ordinary people into acting against their own self-interest, then the evolutionary prerogative of tribalism has turned against us.

Our whole history has been one of ever-expanding circles of responsibility: The nation of Israel kept slaves like everybody else, and reveled in the deaths of competing tribes, but that was then and this is now. Slowly, we've taken responsibility for the welfare of those outside the family, our church, a town, even our nation, as we've become aware of the shared legacy of humanity. "Maximizing utility," an economist might call it, when I choose to forego a little comfort so that people I'll never meet can get food today. It's not a linear process, but neither is it merely a balm for the guilt of the affluent - It's in my best interest that our childrens' world be more egalitarian and less competitive.

There's a dangerous pride that accrues to fundamentalism, cloaked in humility, of all things. It's easy to see in Islam, where so much mental discipline is required to shut out and deny obvious truths that are all around us. It's an ambitious goal, to freeze human culture and understanding in the 7th century! The programming in the US Christian culture is far more insidious, to the point that so many mainstream religious Americans would ardently deny that they're anything less than fully aware, rational, voluntary participants in their collective belief system. But exposing that programming is like trying to explain what water is to a fish.

Ask yourself this, airdale: How would you think of those "slanderous" treatments of the current US president if he hadn't claimed a moral and religious backing that matches yours? Would you tolerate the cronyism, the arrogance, the disrespect for the rule of law, torture, mass murder for profit...? How willing are you - are any of us - to admit we've been duped and manipulated by an aristocracy that knows nothing and cares less about the teachings and example of Christ?

To me criticism is fine if it is reality based. And for that matter I expect to have a government that is also reality based. The real world is a complicated place, and it takes some level of intellect to fathom all of the nuance. I can't really see how electing a duo each of whom graduated at the bottom of their classes is going to help - they can use their "gut" to guide policy decisions, but if their gut is filled with neo-con fantasies the policies aren't likely to work out very well.

The current president has also allowed political dogma to shape his policies, and in the fantasy world of the neo-cons Iraq was a threat to us. In the real world it wasn't a threat however, but real people are dying and real money is being spent because these people can't tell fact from fantasy. I can go on and on.

The current Republican candidate seems to be trying to motivate people to vote for him by using fear tactics. They keep ramping up the rhetoric, the far right seems to be buying into it, but the rest of us just roll our eyes. The criticisms that McCain is making are to most independent observers entirely fabrications and distortions of the truth. But in the fantasy world of the hard core right-wing, all of this stuff is true, I guess.

I don't know why you bother to link to some preacher. Was there some point that he was making that you wanted to highlight?

No greenie from me for Airdale. Not up or down.

This just seems silly, from my "sheltered" position. Obama is hardly a Radical Socialist -- if anything, he is a tool of Wall Street Investment Bankers -- but I doubt that, as well.

On the other hand, what does this have to do with Oil?

The most violent people on earth are arguably White Christians. I'm not sure why that is, but I don't believe it has anything to do with either "Whiteness" or "Christianity" -- both of which are rather elusive categories.

find myself shaking my head that a lot of it seems to be well understood by people his own color but not much of the rest of us.

Damn. I had been hoping you were just not communicating well, but it turns out you actually are a racist.

Note to Airdale: given he's as much white as black, he's you're color.

As for what conservatives deserve? Those scumbags that have pushed this nation to the brink of destruction deserve far worse than they will ever get, that is certain.

It seems you are attempting to imply a couple things.
- That *all* self-styled conservatives are to blame. Obviously false, so why the generalized protestation? I'm surprised you would engage in base propaganda.
- That conservatives don't bear more responsibility for the current crisis than any other group. And that would just be stupid to say, so surely that is not what you intend to say?

Your defensive, ever-more-racist-and-apologist posts are just getting sad now.

Give it up, eh? Stick to subjects you have something worthwhile to add to. These ain't them.

Jeers

Its easy to go to church every sunday, but it's much harder to actually practice your faith. Christianity is very tough to practice in reality - many of your co-religionists seem to fall into a common trap and become judgmental hypocrites instead.

Perhaps the reason why those on the coasts worry about flyover country christian conspiracies is because there's nothing more dangerous than someone who believes God says it's ok to do something unpleasant to someone else. It makes it hard to find common ground and live together in peace and harmony regardless of different beliefs.

But - what does this have to do with Peak Oil again? :)

As one who grew up in The South (with all that connotes), I can understand your point of view. Actually, that is a new awareness for me, as I grew up in a city and had almost no contact with folks in the country, from whence my patents departed before I was born. I was lucky enough to attend college, taking technology and science courses. Even though we attended a Baptist church, I did not find the supernatural world view compelling. However, for the past 10 years, I have lived in an area surrounded by deeply religious people and do find it impossible to comprehend their world.

I'm sure that there are various flavors of acceptance of the Bible and the stories it presents. The truly Fundamentalist world view, with the Young Earth Creationist outlook, is an extreme to me, as it is contrary to almost all of the sciences. For one to have the Fundamentalist world view, one must be able to ignore all of science, not just the Darwinian theory of Evolution. Going back to Galileo's time, the simple notion that the Earth orbits the sun would have put one's life in peril and during the Inquisition, people were regularly tortured and put to death for holding such heretical ideas. I think the moral high ground claimed by the Christians was not applied back then and I wonder how the present Fundamentalists will respond as the old myths become ever more difficult to accept. Much of the rhetoric we hear from the hate mongers on the Right as this election has progressed raise the specter of a war against those who disagree with the Fundamentalist world view, which would include the killing of politicians, especially Mr. OB. I've already heard claims that Mr. OB won't be likely to live to see 20 January...

I became an environmentalist decades ago while living in California (Northern, not Southern), where I found I could not tolerate the air pollution. It occurred to me that California was the End of Civilization, as any more of it and I could not live there. So, I moved back to Atlanta, only to find that the air pollution there had also become very bad. Worse yet, the area was one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. and the local politicians actually wanted to get rid of the automobile air pollution inspections! Well, the EPA eventually had to cut off their funding for highway construction to force them to get with the program.

I'm sure that there are many people who still think that keeping the air clean is an excessive government regulation of their lives, as the "greenies" have become easy targets for the conservative propaganda machine. Apparently, those folks don't notice the effects of CO or the pain from the ozone, as I did. Or, perhaps they were simply too ignorant to understand what was happening to their bodies. Without some considerable understanding of science, the problem of Climate Change can also be viewed as another attempt at regulation from Big Government. We all live at the bottom of an ocean of air and many don't bother thinking about the scientific facts as they continually suck in lung fulls several times a minute. We are all like little crabs skittering around on the bottom of a lagoon, unaware that there's more to it than meets the eye.

If you think I'm bashing the "conservative philosophy", then I think we have a real problem. Ever since Darwin published his theory of evolution, the scientific evidence has piled up in support. Please tell us, how can (will?) those with a Fundamentalist Christian world view come to accept the science that says Darwin was right and the Earth is 4.55 Billion years old?

E. Swanson

There is no right-wing conspiracy. Instead there is an explicit attempt to make religion the driving force in politics.

With Bush's rise, the evangelicals thought they had it made. What they didn't realize is that there is an enormous amount of cynicism and unbelief among the conservative elite. And at no point were they entrusted with real power. Mostly they were snickered at and ignored.

The thought of Palin becoming president horrifies me. I was raised an evangelical and know whereof I speak. These people live on the edge of psychosis. Which is not unusual among humans. But more than usual, conservative Christians are absolute masters at keeping reality at bay. You cannot be an informed person and be a Bible-believing Christian. It takes a brain made of granite to ignore the last 2 centuries of science and other forms of scholarship.

The conservative Christian way of dealing with life is simple: get coked up on mass hallucinations.

You can see Palin doing it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwkb9_zB2Pg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k84m2orSOaM

An NYT article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/us/politics/25faith.html?em

Let the scared little people have what they need to feel warm and cozy. But let's not be led by those who need such opiates.

Airdale;
I honestly do appreciate how extreme the 'Christian Bashing' and 'Republican Bashing' can get, and I'm equally aware that this kind of insulting talk actually does nothing to further Liberal political causes anyway.

But with that said, I do leave it to 'Real' Republicans to clean their own house, and Honorable Christians to ACTIVELY challenge the very vocal and destructive extremists in their fold. There are people hiding within the sometimes feigned sanctimony of your churches who are tarring your image- and you have to let 'us' all know that their statements and actions are not sanctioned or sanctified by your community. When Pat Robertson publicly calls for the assassination of foreign leaders (Chavez) .. it's not enough to let the Unitarians show all the outrage here. He's dragging all Evangelical Protestants down with his supercilious ranting.

If this administration is so 'Un-republican', who voted them back into office? Where are the objectors and the dissidents? Too many practised 'Go along to Get Along..'.. and now you see the rage it's caused coming to a head. The Dem's have a conformity problem, too. Might make me a Nader Pariah one more time. Who knows?

Anyway, I hope I have spoken fairly to you here, and I do welcome having a forum where there is at least SOME discourse across the aisle.

Best,
Bob Fiske

Airdale

I live in Chicago and have followed the Obama story here. The man may not use the best judgement about who he connects with, but then neither does McCain who apparently is happy being buddies with G. Gordon Liddy who is as repentant as Bill Ayres about his past life. I am not inclined to place as much stock in the so-called Rezko connection as others.

Bashing, whether of conservatives or liberals, is an activity engaged in by people who assume a moral high road they seldom truly occupy. The outcome is usually a turning of the karmic wheel upon the basher, as Ted Haggerty learned (among others). One can disagree with the political philosophies of any individual without going the extra mile and attacking them on a personal level.

I saw your comment in the other DB and I have no idea what Obama's race has to do with this election unless folks intend to cast their vote based on that. That makes as much sense as casting your vote a specific way because Palin is a woman.

My paternal grandparents arrived in 1900 from Germany, and I have fond memories of overnights at their house and having fresh eggs from the henhouse. Grandpa was a blacksmith, I have his paper saying he passed his apprenticeship. Without a doubt, good, salt-of-the-earth people. But not saints and not necessarily folks with whom I share cultural or political philosophies. I don't doubt we would be voting for different candidates on election day if they were still alive.

Airdale, I have appreciated your contributions to this forum.

But the video you link to here is full of easily-disproved falsehoods and cowardly, unsubstantiated character attacks. If you cannot recognize this "preacher" for a nut-case I have to question your judgement. In the first minute, the preacher (who calls Obama "Tarzan" for some reason) claims that Obama does not mention his mother in his books. I have a copy of Obama's book and there are substantial sections about his mother. How "Christian" is it for a preacher to scream that anyone's dead mother is "Trash!!". The preacher claims that Obama is not supported by his family, but Obama's sister came to Colorado to campaign for him (my wife atttended and was impressed). The preacher claims that Obama's grandmother does not support him because she did not come to the Convention, but she is dying with a broken hip, so traveling is not realistic.

If this is the best critique of Obama that you can find, that is really a back-handed compliment to Obama that you cannot find a rational, sane individual to criticize him and must rely on lunatic ravings instead.

Thanks for the window into the bombastic and scary Halloween-world of the Far Right, Airdale. For the benefit of moderates in the audience, defending yourself against personal attacks by ultra Conservative media forces is considered to be exactly equivalent to an attack on them personally, their ideology and their friends and family. I have been accused on talk radio of "doing business with Idi Amin", a charge that couldn't possibly contain a grain of truth. Nevertheless, it was enough to hurt my chances of getting hired in my hometown with the old boss that heard the show.

Using this tactic employs the a favourite argument of Liberals: Any criticism of Obama is racism and Conservatives: Palin, sexism. It takes a marginal but fiery black preacher to ignite the fires of Christian righteousness using innuendo and dubious factoids on the O Man, factoids that melt away in the sunlight. Am I correct in hearing a clear invocation to violence? Religion can be dangerous. Long live the separation of church and state and may God bless America.

Unlikely. It's an old story and there's more than Nato involved. The Russians sent a ship after the Ukranian freighter full of weapons was grabbed, and the Indian navy is convoying Indian merchant ships through there.

Or maybe this:

Syria: 9 dead in U.S. helicopter border strike from Iraq

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031568.html

"There was no initial U.S. comment about the reported incident. If confirmed, it would be the first time that American forces had carried out an attack on Syrian soil."

Well put and I agree.

"Barack Obama thoughtfully reasons out his interpretation of current issues and his plans for dealing with them."

Wow! I thought he was like all the rest of the politicians where a committee came up with the right things to say to get the most votes.

I guess in addition to the other things I am that I mention further down ... I am a cynic.

I do think that's right. Election of the president will definitely affect energy policy quite dramatically.

Does anyone here remember McCain's "gas tax holiday" proposal this summer? Or how about drill, baby, drill - a sound bite totally divorced from the fact that 80% of deep water rig time has already been contracted for the next 3 years.

Obama's proposals seem more thoughtful. The man himself appears more of a thinker, more measured, stable, and careful. I'd much prefer someone like that in charge of our country. When I travel overseas, foreigners cautiously ask me who I like to win our election. When I tell them I favor Obama they look relieved, and then the next question is always: but will America vote for a black man?

To that I have no answer.

you might enjoy this site also:

http://www.deadmalls.com/

Regarding Buffett's prediction that the recession will end 6 months to 5 years from now: I predict that it will take more like 5 years than 6 months at this point before the world economy is in a position again to follow its innate impulse to climb into growth mode. The current downward momentum is just too violent, and will take a long time to stabilize and settle.

More importantly, however, as soon as growth does get off the ground, the growth will bump up against hard energy supply limits, oil prices will skyrocket once again to unprecedented levels, and the world economy will lurch into yet a new round of wrenching demand destruction.

As for Buffett himself, I find it very hard to believe that he doesn't know this to be true himself in at least some kind of vague way. Doesn't he consort with all kinds of Council on Foreign Relations types and the like? As I have suggested before, I do not think the man is to be trusted, and it actually makes me quite angry to think that he is taking advantage of his "good guy" image to help the ruling elite soothe tens of millions about fears regarding the safety of their retirement - to their long-term detriment.

Lynfor,

Ahh you only got a 1 on that. If I had said the same I would have been buried in negatives.

I too am apparently a racist. I actually volunteered for the USN so I must have been a White Christian therefore and a blood thirsty dog.

Airdalel-airdale means one who is in Naval Aviation as opposed to Blackshoe Navy(shipboard with the exception of carriers)

Thanks mdsolar. Finally we are talking about oil again.

I know the DrumBeat allows for a wider range of discussion. But I, and I hope many other readers, am disappointed with the sharp contrast between the mission statement of TOD and the reality of the discussions. Perhaps the link at the top of the home page to the TOD mission statement should should be larger. I know it is not my place to speak on behalf of the editors and contributors of TOD. However, I cringe at the though of how the many people who I have referred to TOD during the last few months came here only to have found less energy discussion than I had indicated they would find.

I guess the straw that broke my camel's back was the unfortunate discussions above of racism and fundamentalism with a bit of politics thrown in for good measure.

Please feel free to edit my post as may be appropriate.

Mission Statement

The Oil Drum's mission is to facilitate civil, evidence-based discussions about energy and its impact on our future.

We near the point where new oil production cannot keep up with increased energy demand and the depletion of older oil fields, resulting in a decline of total world oil production. Because we are increasingly dependent upon petroleum, declining production has the potential to disrupt our lives through much higher prices and fuel shortages. The extent of the impact of this supply shortfall will depend on its timing, the magnitude of production decline rates, the feasibility of petroleum alternatives, and our ability to curtail energy consumption.

The goals of The Oil Drum are as follows:

1. Raise awareness of energy issues

Most people are not aware of the problems we face or they underestimate their potential impact. Politicians and the traditional media have overlooked the problem, out of ignorance or due to a conflict of interest. We seek to fill the information gap, disseminating underreported facts and analysis.

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Ben's running low on helicopters.

dont cry for GM... they were in on the ground floor of this operation.

Results 1 - 10 of about 70,100 for GMAC ditech

GM may be the poster child, but none of the American car companies was prepared for high fuel prices...despite what happened in the '70s.

And I'm not sure Toyota deserves that much credit. A lot of the fuel efficiency technology they and other companies have today is from cars built for Japan, where the government has kept the screws to car companies since the '70s.

Only two or three years ago, Toyota was saying plug-in cars would never work.