So why such a wide price window 85 -> 160 this time?

Previous polls by Pr. Goose had much smaller windows, and I think he was following some kind of "system".

Did you just pick arbitrary high and low values for this poll?

New here, though I've been lurking for a couple months now. I love this place! I've been reading everything Ican get my hands on lately so I've become very enchanted by Matt Simmons. Finished "Twilight..", so when I saw this interview with a full dose about the Peak with Mr. Simmons on CNNMoney/Fortune.com today I thought I would share:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/500dollaroil_okeefe.fortune...

I was very surprised a mainstream outlet is giving him this much coverage, but glad to see it.

Capital is not required; the resources it commands are what are required. There is plenty of capital and an increasingly short supply of resources.

The reason that I have seen in the press is that some shorts need to cover before the expiration date. Meaning that a bunch of money expected oil to be falling more than it has, they sold oil futures and now they need to buy contracts or actually deliver physical oil.

I have no ability to determine if this is true or not, but the gap between other oil markets, and the fact that futures chain doesn't reflect the increase support that assessment.

Hope that was helpful.

Responded to your post before reading the rest of the post. Read down thread, these guys know more than I do.

Should have gone for the last option.

For the next few months the oil price in dollars isn't going to be driven by supply and demand, its going to be driven by the dollar and the flight to more dependable investments.

Now Saudi may cut back on supply, but that's going to be as nothing against the run on the dollar. I still think we will go through $150 by the end of the year, but I'm not so sure against the basket of world currencies.

What I suggested might happen before appears to playing out. The US is pulling itself apart and killing itself as a world superpower. In doing so its going to take 10Mbpd out of the demand side of the market and give everyone else time to prepare for the downslope.

Thanks guys !

I noticed that today, too. The front month price went way above the other months.

An analyst on NPR suggested the discrepancy was the result of traders finally being forced to make end of month purchases after holding out hoping for lower prices. Any thoughts on that analysis?

Not sure about staying in the trading range. I think what we witnessed this year is the first post peak oil shock regardless of the supposed production levels this year. I believe we have seen significant production declines from the real peak back in 2005. On a global scale the production distribution will either take a Gaussian shape or may be distorted by years of systematic effort that could result in a longer plateau and steeper decline.

The double peak solution puported by the press is extremely unlikely and effectively requires a miracle.

Thus its simply one of the many pieces of misinformation thats causing the market to become progressivly more misinformed and volatile. However despite this volatility assuming I'm correct the real price range for oil assuming we are now 2-4 mbd down from peak is more like 130-180. Given our current situation with the hurricanes the market will soon have to begin to discover the truth one trade at a time despite the serious amount of global misinformation floating around at the moment.

Just like the current US gasoline spot market represents a much better picture of the current gasoline situation while the US futures market remain in bizarro world as these trades are closed and real oil is requested for delivery we will see price forced back into alignment with supply.

What happened in the oil markets today had little to do with the economic turmoil on wall street this has been going on all week what happened is people simply closed their contracts and asked for delivery and the oil was not available.

I think this comment is spot on.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4557#comment-411814

I think the mistake your making is not accounting for the increase in the amount of misinformation it will make the market more volatile but also given that the current market is in my opinion misinformed about the availability of oil we will also see large shifts in the floor prices upwards as the markets discover the truth.

This shifts in the floor prices look like sharp increases when the market is badly misinformed but they really are a almost tectonic shift to a new pricing level and prices will then fluctuate around the new floor.

Your own supply demand curve exhibits the rising stair step effect this would create.

I can give a long list of reasons why I think that the equilibrium price should be 120-130 but whats important and maybe it should be added to the poll's is price gets more volatile is a way to pick the equilibrium or midpoint price. It not 110 in my opinion thus 85-160 is the wrong answer :)

It depends also on when China will see the great oil consumption spike which could happen any time now, as the next decade is the great oil intensive fase in that country's development, hitting the markets like an earthquake.

I don't agree that in the long run it (oil price) is predictable.

Some people say "the sky is the limit" meaning in the long run prices will keep reaching higher and higher peeks.

Maybe this is true. But I can equally likely imagine that price of oil will experience wild swings without ever breaking a certain cealing price.

Sure, supply will keep shrinking, but the devastating shock waves that this will send through the economy will bring down demand drastically as well.

That doesn't mean that I think the outlook is a rosy future. If prices don't keep breaking higher and higher levels, it would not necesarily be because the situation is being handled well, but rather the oposite.

Send your critter an email. Do it tonight. It's easy. Google them... an email link will appear.

Takes about one minute to fill out the form.

I am feeling pretty good about my preditions. I sold near the high and bought on Tuesday, the exact day of the recent low. I sold all medium-term bonds on last Monday's panic and got a bit of a premium in the flight to safety. Playing these games with your own real money, much of it saved though austerity, makes you much sharper and more careful.

These were my comments on July 23. I think I called it very well:

"I have been an oil investor since the 1990's. I believe in peak oil. Over 50% of my porfolio was in oil and gas I have been greatly rewarded...
Last week I sold about 20% of my oil investments.
I sold shares in a natural resource fund that I have owned for a long time. Ten years ago I was buying the shares for $7. I sold for $42 I didn't quite get the top of $46. In Febuary, in the middle of the SoGen crisis, I was buying oil and gas mutual funds for $18 a share. I sold for $24. A very nice return for 5 months.

Sometimes you are so far ahead that you just have to take profits.

There is demand destruction out there. We have all sorts of stories about parked cars, increased transit use, etc...Higher interest rates and an economy in long term reccession may push the price of oil even lower. Who needs gas to get to a job, when you have been laid off? Better to spend the money on food, seeds and insulation.

I think I will be able to buy all my shares back with oil at $115. I will buy them back in small lots at a lower price. I think the Saudis will cut production at $100 and definitely at $80. They want to preserve their resources for future generations.
$80 to $115 could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime."

On August 11 I said the following:

Today on August 11, I think we will see lower prices.

In the short term, the price of oil can be about more than just supply and demand. I can be about interest rates and the strength of the dollar.
When real interest rates are negative, commodites are a great play. You lose if you sit in bonds. When the Fed really starts to raise rates, oil prices often drop.

…I also think some American Banks are liquidating commodities and oil stocks because they need the money to stay afloat. The market is being sold all at once.

I think this is happening now. Some of those oil winnings are even making it back into speculation in the U.S stock market.

All those discussions about Chinese and Indian demand, will matter less as those countries have benifited greatly from selling goods to America. Demand from other countries will not make up for the decline in demand from America. The American consumer is tapped out from the housing crisis.

In the short term, think oil will go lower. Let's see if the Saudi's cut production at $100. I will not buy back in until $95. I am going to lighten up in other areas and have lots of money ready incase we get $80 or less in panic selling.

Long-term, I love secure, dependable Canadian oil companies as an investment, but I want to buy them at bargin prices when the newest speculators are scared silly by all the selling.

Of course, Israel or Iran could change everything in an instant. That's why only sold 20% of my oil holdings back when prices were so high.

Today on September 16 I think we will see lower prices. We did have a small production cut, as I predicted

I think we are swinging from a potential hyper-inflationary future to one that is potentialy deflationary. All asset classes will go lower, but long-term, I still like owning oil companies

Right now, we have some panic selling. It's not about fundimentals right now. It's about having the money to buy. Lots of former players, like Lehman Brothers don't. They are are no longer in the game and you don't have to bid against them.

I will probably start buying today. (meaning Sept 16th) I will do it slowly and in small peices. You always always want to have some cash. There can be further dips and you never know how long these things can last.

Baron Rothschild, the quintessential banking opportunist, said buy when there is "blood in the streets." I think I see some blood.

I went on to explain that I though the cost of non-conventional sources, especially the oil sands..."should create some support or a floor price."

Markets are often about the behaviour of crowds, but fundimentals often rule in the long-term.

Today on September 22. I think oil is somewhat fairly priced. I voted on trading range but I will tighten it up a bit.

Paulson's plan is infationary, bad for the dollar and good for oil, that is priced in dollars.

There will be more dollars printed per barrel of oil and the American consumer's abiltiy to buy those barrels will be extended through this meassure, somewhat at the expense of the currency and the rising debt load of the country.

I am a buyer at less than $95 and I might start selling peices at $137.

...but I want the price to be real and reflected in some movement of the energy indexes. Today's short squeeze did not do that, so I didn't even think of selling today. Watch the energy indexes, if the price move is more than very short-term, they should move as well.

I might lower my selling price if we have new really bad data on employment that might indicate demand destruction down through the costs of oilsands production.

I will raise my selling price in accordance with declines on the dollar against the Euro. I don't want to sell just on curency weakness.

In the next few weeks, I will be looking for more data. That's what I do.

I think distillates are pretty normal:

Looks like it usually peaks about now, in preparation for winter. So "high" is normal for this time of year.

Gasoline has fallen off a cliff:

Probably due to our friends Gustav and Ike.

Could you elaborate on that? You think BRIC will see massive pain in the coming months or?