Damage Caused by Hurricane Ike - Open Thread
Posted by Gail the Actuary on September 15, 2008 - 10:20am
We are only now beginning to be able to assess in real time what damage Hurricane Ike has caused to oil structures and other property. We are hearing of flooding, electrical outages, damages to oil platforms and pipelines, among other things. This thread is for discussing these issues.
According to today's DOE report, 3.6 million barrels of refinery capacity is shut in, and 2.5 million barrels is operating with reduced runs. In my refinery article, I used an estimate of one-third of production from reduced runs being off line. With this approach, 4.4 million barrels of refinery production is off-line, which is about 22% of oil products use. The corresponding calculation from yesterday's report would indicate that 4.5 million barrels were offline then, so we are making slight progress. It would be difficult to get along without 22% of oil products for long, however.
Also, from that report, there are 3.9 million electricity customers without electrical power, including 2.4 million from Texas.
The report indicates that 1.3 million barrels of crude oil production is off-line. The US produced a total of about 5.1 million barrels of crude oil a day, including all of the United States. The amount currently off-line amounts to about 25% of US production.
Let us know what other information you see and hear.
This is a link to the previous thread discussing Hurricane Ike damage.
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Pipelines?
The previous Hurricane Ike thread included this map of the pipelines across the US:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/united_states_pipelines_map.jpg
Which was described as a map of "the critical pipeline structure expanding outward nationwide from the Houston/Port Arthur area:"
But it has no map key to tell you what the different lines represent. Does anybody know what the different colored pipelines on the map represent? Which color is NG, which color is petroleum or gasoline or whatever?
Also there are some crossing the Canada border. Are those all now carrying fuels to the US, or do some carry fuels to Canada?
The map you reference seems to show the larger pipelines of various types. It would be helpful to have a color reference guide. It is not obvious to me what the map shows.
This is a map of oil refined product pipelines:
This is a map of crude pipelines:
Natural gas pipelines go pretty much everywhere, except New England has minimal coverage.
Maps for the various products can be found by scrolling down this page under "pipeline coverage".
Regarding pipelines crossing the Canada border, they go both ways. The tar sands that Canada processes are too thick to send through pipelines to the US to be processed, without first being diluted with some lighter oil. In order for this to happen, the US needs to send lighter oil north, by pipeline, to use as a dilutant. Most of the tars sands oil is refined in this country, I believe. Some of the refined product then gets sent back to Canada.
I revealed the color code when i first posted a smaller version of the linked map (which linked to the larger one).
red=gas
green=oil
blue=refined products
Here is the page from which this came, which also has a key showing the names corresponding to the codes for each:
http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/united_states_pipelines.html
I did some posts a while back on some of the oil and product movements:
Sept 1
Aug 30
Two specific situations of that I am aware of are:
There is also substantial product movement between Port Huron MI and Sarnia ON.
As I pointed out in my earlier posts, one of the pipelines between Montreal QC and Portland ME is being reversed to send Alberta crude to Texas starting in about 2010.
There possibly will be a movement in the US to stop exporting "our" oil in order to increase supply and reduce prices. The real effect would probably be the exact opposite. For example, less distillates sent north will mean it is harder to send crude south. There are ways to get around this, but they are more difficult and expensive.
Information on closed pipelines from here:
According to DOE's 3:00Pm Report, Colonial Pipeline (Texas to New York) is now operating at reduced rates. This may be greatly reduced rates--the report doesn't give enough information to tell. The other information still seems to be correct.
It would be of interest to know what the entry points are for the Colonial and other pipelines. Which refineries can supply it?
For a good treatise on the US pipeline network and how it functions, read this document:
How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work –
Their Networks, Operation and Regulation
It dates to 2001, but it doesn't give many specifics anyway.
JB
The Gustav related refinery shutdowns are rapidly coming back on-line. The Mississippi River is open for tankers stalled outside Houston, so crude should not be a problem (if it is SPR releases). Electrical power outages are patched if not completely repaired.
IMHO, the Plantation pipeline should be at full capacity in a couple of days, with additional product being barged up-river (slow, up to 2 weeks to Pittsburgh) and some product for the Colonial pipeline.
But the USA cannot operate off just the East Louisiana refineries without the Lake Charles area and Texas Gulf refineries.
Alan
Ike is causing significant damage all over the country. Dayton OH was hit with sustained winds at 60+ MPH causing 200k customers loss of power. Dayton Power and Light crews were on their way to Texas, so we will be out for days. Gas stations with power have long lines and now there are fires associated with generator use. Ike has a long reach.
Ohio got clobbered by the remnants of Ike. There were hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) blowing for much of the day yesterday. Apparently, parts of Dayton and Cincinnati may be without power until this weekend.
There seemed to be quite a bit of damage. Large trees were down all over our neighborhood. By acquaintance, I know of three people that have trees through their houses.
In my locale there are now gas stations that still have power but are out of gasoline. There are long lines at the stations that still have gas.
Here is the entire history of Ike's maximum wind, gust and minimum central pressure, based on NHC reports:
Ike lasted for two weeks. The hurricane underwent the standard rapid decay post-landfall, a compliment to the rapid deepening some 10 days earlier. Though the NHC indicate a 95-knot Cat-2 hurricane at landfall, I'm hard pressed to find evidence beyond Cat-1 in the available data. Maximum 2-minute winds reached 75 to maybe 85 mph at a select few stations. I base the high end on a 76 mph 10-minute wind reported at Sea Rim State Park, TX, which was accompanied by a gust to 99 mph. Many reports indicated maximum 2-minute winds in the range of 55-70 mph; strong tropical storm level.
The record of Ike's forward movement is depicted here:
As is typical when hurricanes interact with midlatitude troughs, the storm accelerated considerably as it moved northward into a rather strong cold frontal boundary for September.
Here's Ike's track, relative to Gustav and some cities:
They eye tracked right through Galveston and Houston, bringing the immediate right front quadrant, often the region of most destructive winds and storm surge, over places like Port Arthur, TX. All these locations, however, experienced an intense storm; going through the eye essentially results in two encounters with the hurricane's eyewall.
And here are some official peak gusts for Texas-based locations:
The stations are arranged, roughly, south to north along Ike's track. The rapid decay to tropical depression is quite evident in the data, even with communication failures at many stations early in the storm. Most of the stations with missing wind data stopped communicating between +6 and -3 hours of Ike's landfall in Galveston. Interestingly, Galveston's ASOS station, KGLS, stopped reporting around noon on 12 Sep 2008, the day before landfall, apparently due to the very early arrival of the storm surge.
-best,
Wolf
Some recent articles:
Galveston, Houston flounder in wake of Ike
11 Gulf platforms damaged, missing; no big spills
A.M. Best Comments on Potential Impact of Hurricane Ike on the Property/Casualty Industry
Ike Insured Damage Estimates Range from $6B to $18B
Gail,
Here's the situation here on the ground in Houston. Just took a tour around the neighborhood (downtown). Much fewer stations open today then yesterday. And those open had 100 - 150 cars in line. And during the last two days I drove down to refinery row and have not seen one tanker truck on the road. They did have many tankers staged on the highways out of Houston to refuel evacuees on the way out.
I'm sure all the crews are working as hard as possible. But didn't see one elec repair crew working in Baytown...home of the largest refinery in the US. All the flare towers were burning and lookedlike most vessels were venting. Not really sure want that means. Most of the workers live in Baytown and they have no elect or water at home.
Our worse problem is that we just lost cable TV. Otherwise in great shape compared to 95% of everyone else.
Thanks for this. All I hear is what is on the news (they took KHOU off of our satellite, and my wife is suffering withdrawals).
Here in the Brazos valley, our shelters are officially full; some homes w/o power (in rural areas), but nothing like what Houston / Galveston / Port Arthur / etc. has suffered.
I find the lack of comments on this thread interesting, either there is nothing new to say or interest has already moved on. Storm chasers are notoriously fickle :)
KHOU and all the other local channels at http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html
To be honest I'm too shocked by what the local stations are showing to comment much more right now (see the Crystal Beach before and after shot in the previous thread . Yet watch BBC news in the UK and it's just as if nothing happened.
Oh local news just reporting that the Houston ship channel is "completely blocked with debris" and showed video of about 50 ships lined up just offshore unable to get in.
Disaster is exciting, and attracts those not personally involved.
Even starvation may get an audience.
But grinding misery, poverty, and lives which are inconvenienced and disrupted will never attract the public.
Surely pictures like this (better posted in this thread anyway then the previous one ) should be front page news around the world.
Crystal Beach before and after. And this area of total destruction goes on for miles and miles and miles...
The BBC for all it's pretensions is remarkably parochial.
It is also very bureaucratic, and has a party line on what it will show.
I prefer CNN, even though that also tends to superficiality.
Yes and I see that CNN International is starting to show before and after pics (but not getting to the worst yet). Auntie Beeb surely can't ignore the images of catastrophic destruction reaching its newsroom much longer. Maybe they have to wait for Anderson Cooper to break the news first.
The BBC only covers London in any detail.
Floods in the North of England were virtually outside the pale, and were briefly reported then dropped off the radar.
The only other good way to get on the Beeb is to provide an 'ethnic' angle, to have an exotic location that a team might fancy jetting off to to 'research', or preferably both.
That looks strangely similar to the photos of Banda Ache after the Dec 26th '05 tsunami
And Bush finally used the "disaster" word to reporters a few moments ago as he begins his tour.
Unfortunately all the local stations still streaming are still being transmitted with a high bitrate but the resolution and frames/sec is really degraded over what it was 48 hours ago so its very difficult to see clearly the helicopter shots. KHOU which was streaming in near broadcast quality seems to have stopped streaming completely. Hopefully just temporary technical problems.
We're in the dark. I have a couple of adult children I haven't heard from in Conroe, Texas. I read that electricity there will be out for up to four weeks.
I think some of the problems to follow may be worse than the storm.
What happens when all these people now without a paycheck miss their house and credit card payments? Grocery stores need electricity to operate freezers and coolers. How long until there are food shortages? No A/C. Mosquitos. West Nile virus? Clean water? Inoperable sewer systems and all that entails.
Sooner or later there will be social unrest. Lots of pissed off people.
Thanks for giving us your on-the-ground report.
Usually on day two or three, all the reports are--we don't see much damage, things don't look too bad, etc.
The devil is in the details. The people operating refineries have to get close enough to see whether everything is in place to get started, workers are able to travel to the refinery, and crude oil and other necessary inputs (like natural gas) are available. All it takes is one supply line to break down, and it holds things up.
Also, the reports aren't looking at where people live, just the oil infrastructure. There can be a big difference.
One of my sons made contact today from Conroe. He says 7 or 8 homes in his neighborhood had walls crushed by falling and flying trees. No electricity. No gasoline on a regular basis, but when a tanker does arrive, lines for fuel entail 3 to 4 hour waits.
No clean water, but they have restored a supply of contaminated water through the lines in places (much better than none).
Power in eastern Montgomery County (red-neckville) will not be restored until Oct. 14. He says power companies from all over the US are there however and he expects to see the juice restored on the West side soon (rich white folks live out that way). (The stuff in parenthesis is mine.)
Most people aren't working; those that are worry they won't be getting paid.
Fortunately the weather has been cooperative. We've had a cool spell. In mosquito paradise, that is really good news.
A lot of people sitting around waiting for a government issued debit card.
Wonder what all those folks that made fun of Katrina refugees think now?
Just a minor aside.
Approached by family @ Lowe's in New Orleans (next to truckstop, exit off I-10), two middle twenties blue collar plus @ 3 y/o daughter. Texas plates, said that they were from Bay City (Bay Town ?), Texas, evacuated and out of money & gas. Gas guzzling pick-up with bedding & luggage in back under tarps.
Directed them to shelters, explained local job situation, bought them 11 gallons of gas and a meal. Perhaps a scam, but it did not seem that way.
A story repeated many times over I am sure :-(
Best Hopes,
Alan
It's not just here. Today's coverage about Ike in our paper described the weather over the weekend in the midwest. I had to work a bit to find an update on the situation in Texas.
MMS Numbers for Sept. 15th
We're getting an estimated 0.1% of crude production from the gulf.
Wow! That will go a long ways!
Hello TODers,
Besides the huge swath of destruction here in the USA, I think it is important to also google Haiti & Cuba, plus the other Caribbean island-nations hit by the recent spate of 'canes. We could have untold millions headed to our shores shortly, or is the US Coast Guard just going to start machine-gunning every small boat they see? :(
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3afaea18-833d-11dd-907e-000077b07658.html
-------------------
Cuba’s growth ambitions laid to waste
..“We need to save and use to rebuild everything salvageable, including the nails,” urged Mr Machado Ventura as he toured Cuba. The hurricanes have damaged 500,000 homes and many thousands of other buildings, as well as utilities and the communications infrastructure, and wiped out crops.
--------------------
http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSN1530652._CH_.2400
-------------------
Haiti could face new food crisis after storms
..Farm tools, seeds to plant next year's crop, livestock that farmers live off and irrigation systems vital for rice production were also destroyed.
The damage is all the more serious because it came at harvest time. The losses will be most keenly felt by the poorest farmers, who plant and harvest later and who lack the capital to reinvest.
-------------------
What would Garret Hardin do? Continue food aid until even the US is totally broke and starving ourselves, or let the Grim Reaper be the DJ for a machete' moshpit dance party on each island? No easy choices as the Dieoff kicks into high gear.
Will Haiti and Cuba get hit with more 'canes this year? What about next year, and each year thereafter?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
From Chuck Watson, aerial images posted by NOAA:
Finally can share some of this stuff:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/index.html
Here's a couple shots of the Texas City complex:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IMAGES/ike_c25900155.htm
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IMAGES/ike_c25900141.htm
Refineries look OK. I've seen other images that seem to confirm this.
Lot of water still around Port, er, Lake Arthur. Valero plant there may
have some water, but probably nothing major.
This is an update of my graph showing a rough estimate of the amount of product off line, due to refineries closed or running at reduced rates. Where there were two reports for a day, I used the later one.
If you are hoping that the pain would be widely shared I think you are going to be disappointed. I needed to fillup today in Northern Cali, and it was only $3.599 down another 4cents. I thought that was pretty shocking. But I guess if your local area isn't connected to the affected pipelines, you will be enjoyin lower prices because of oils decline. If your area depends upon those shutin refineries, well its going to be pretty tough, as 22% nationaly, is probably 40-50% for the more affected areas.
Harrowing story of surviving the storm on the Bolivar Peninsula:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/us/16bolivar.html
Harrowing, but at the same time I'm unsympathetic. Perhaps I'm a monster for being unable to empathize, but it's not like this is a surprise. These people had tons of time and warnings.
I grew up in Texas and spent time on those beaches--it's plenty scary just in a normal thunderstorm. I wouldn't ride out a tropical depression on the Texas coast. Is Texan exceptionalism so powerful the average Texan thinks a storm like Ike will just kiss them goodnight and go wreck Louisiana instead? What did they really expect?
I do find it interesting that the print media at least is describing the unfolding slow-motion train wreck of the aftermath with some nuance. There is a sense of held breath as everybody looks around and it's said things aren't as bad as Katrina (without actually saying this), but judgment is being withheld as being without power for two weeks in swampy Texas is understood.
And another thing: two million people were without power in the Pacific Northwest over Christmas 2006 from that windstorm for at least a week, many for two. I lucked out, but most didn't. CNN wasn't out here sticking a microphone in my face for that.
I see Bush is to visit Galveston today according to the Houston Chronicle. Maybe that's when the world will finally hear of what happened.
More and more local officials are pleading with the local media to "get the message out" to the world. They are furious at hearing the national and international media talk about "dodging the bullet". Mayor of Galveston said the area has been hit "at least as bad as Louisiana was by Katrina" yet nobody seems to know.
And on the power front
Workers tackling largest power disruption in state's history
Interesting comment from the Mayor of Galveston. KHOU has a story about restrictions on the media per the same mayor.
Is something being 'spun' ?
Is something being spun?
Galveston officials restrict media access
Make of the above what you will.
I run a Canadian junior start-up with operations in California.
MY personal big operations-risk paranoia is grass fires ... not earthquakes.
I have had offers of exploration and production in Louisiana, Alabama and Texas. My politically polite reply is "No, because its not in the same time zones as Calgary or LA".
The events of the pasy few weeks, plus Dennis and Katrina and Rita, have just reinforced my prejudices. GOM is not a good place to do uninterupted business. Give me the North Sea any day.
Now I have been told that there is "500 BOPD in Texas looking for a good home" and now would be agood time to think about buying some production.
But only if it's in West Texas, away from the paths of hurricanes.
Keep up the good work.
From here: http://www.247wallst.com/2008/09/updated-energy.html#more
Dated September 15, 2008
(apologies for quoting most of the article, but is is practically fluff-free)
Gasoline angers more than food & ice lines in Houston
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/6003739.html
Houston Chronicle summary of oil industry damage (a few new details)
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/6003738.html
Alan
Pictures on CNN of the food rotting due to the power cuts.
The suppliers say they can get more in OK, but without power that won't do much good.
Entergy's latest statement of damage and restoration efforts is on their web site
It's worth the read. Entergy in Texas powers about 1.15 MBBLD of refining capacity. Entergy in Louisiana powers most refineries in the state, which has ~ 3 MBBLD capacity. Power in Texas is mostly down. Power in Louisana is mostly restored.
Also received notice in my e-mail box that:
which just tells you how disruptive Ike is being to business activities of various sorts in the Houston area. Johnson Space Center is closed for clean-up this week.
If you figure that each of about two million houses conservatively lost at least $250 in food, just the loss of refrigerated/frozen food was a half billion dollars. Of course, this doesn't count commercial losses, where they don't have back up generators.
There's a tiger (not a lion as earlier unconfirmed reports said) on the loose near Crystal Beach now. Apparently someone kept it as a pet but it's now roaming free. It is hungry and survivors are asked to keep away from it.
Not making this up honest - just confirmed at Galveston press conference.
Many moons ago, when living in Houston and laid off in the oil bust, I got a job as an Houston Light & Power energy auditor while looking for a real job. (Flexible hours, paid enough to "get by")
In our weekly assignment turn-in and hand out, another auditor turned in an assignment that she refused to do. Four German shephards on front porch and a LION in the backyard.
They asked for volunteers and I was the only one to raise my hand.
Turned out to be a deep sea diver for oil industry and girlfriend near shores of Galveston Bay. "Kitty" was female and (they claimed) tame. No a/c , minimal heat, but they had five old refrigerators and freezers that ran their bill up.
Best Hopes for Big Cats on the Loose,
Alan
This tiger is claimed to be tame as well but presumably it's very distressed. Although the owner is known he can't be traced. Seems he stayed with it and refused the offer of evacuation as the surge began because the rescuers would not (understandably) take the tiger. At least I think that's the facts as known as of now from watching local news broadcasts.
Now a hungry tiger roaming loose on a beach in America would definitely make the tv news in the UK even if there was nothing else to it but because it's in "the area where absolutely nothing bad happened at all - honest" some international media must have something of a dilemna right now.
Got a link now
Tiger roaming hurricane-ravaged streets in Texas
MMS says just under 3% of gulf platforms NOT shut in as of 09/16.
And, not related to the MMS, here's a good photo gallery which shows how widespread the damage is.
Wow.
Louisiana Oyster Beds Shut in for Two Weeks, Mud Damage Feared
All oyster beds are shut down for a minimum of two weeks and will be cleared for opening one by one. Mud is the villain. Oysters are filter feeders and will collect whatever is floating.
Evaluation of losses due to shifting mud (oysters covered by mud die) will start today. Oysters that ingest floating mud just need a while to clear it out.
Best Hopes for our fine oysters,
Alan
Latest MMS numbers (Sept 17, lunchtime update)
(emphasis added)