The Bullroarer - Wednesday 10th September 2008
Posted by Big Gav on September 10, 2008 - 9:19am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Business Spectator - A huge bet on coal seam gas
There's BG itself, with its deal with Queensland Gas and bid for Origin, Malaysia’s Petronas, through its joint venture with Santos, Shell through its deal with Arrow Energy (and its reported interest in Origin’s gas) and ConocoPhillips – all have paid previously unimaginable prices to secure CSG resources as feed for planned export LNG plants. BP was also said to be one of the participants in Origin’s CSG "monetisation" process.
The highest prices paid – $1.65 per gigajoule for 3P reserves if two-train LNG plants are built – were achieved by Santos and Origin. That’s rational, given that they have the largest resources.
The intensity of interest from the global oil and gas majors, and the prices they have been willing to pay, validate the view that the Queensland CSG fields are a new resource of global significance. The abruptness with which CSG has gone from being a curiosity to a strategic resource has, however, confounded the local market. Even Santos and Origin appear a little stunned by the values attributed to their resources.
The Australian - BG Group abandons Origin Energy bid
The Conoco deal leaves three major LNG projects and two smaller ones planned for the port town of Gladstone. If they all come to fruition, Gladstone could alone be producing more LNG than the whole of Australia has currently committed to. Origin and Conoco have ambitions for a 14 million tonne a year project, BG and QGC want to build a 12 million tonnes a year capacity, while Santos and Petronas have plans for a 7 to 8 million tonnes a year plant.
Despite a host of LNG plans around the country, Australia still has only two LNG operations: the Woodside-operated North West Shelf, which produces at a rate of 16.3 million tonnes a year after commissioning of a fifth train this month; and Conoco's Darwin LNG, which produces 3.5 million.
There is also only one more plant with project approval, Woodside's Pluto, which will produce at a rate of 4.3 million tonnes a year. Mr Greenwood warned investors that 100 million tonnes a year of capacity is now scheduled for Australia, whereas demand forecasts only call on 65 million tonnes a year from the Pacific Basin. "We foresee a softening of this market and also see the potential for major project deferrals," he said.
The Santos and QGC projects, which were further advanced than Origin's, were relatively low-risk projects compared with Western Australian plans, which were "fraught with joint venture conflicts", he said. Mr Greenwood also said Shell, which now has a small stake in Arrow Energy's acreage would probably move to increase its position in the region.
Business Spectator - Origin emerges stronger
Business Spectator - Cooking With Gas - An Interview With Origin chief executive Grant King
Business Spectator - Origin's dubious valuation
ABC - Queensland plant will process coal seam gas
The Australian - Consolidation looms as Origin lights up Queensland sector
frogblog - Key acknowledges peak oil… sort of
From John Key’s environment policy launch on Saturday:
In the years ahead, it’s likely that the rising global price of oil will nudge Kiwis towards different forms of fuel and transport.
‘Nudge’ is the understatement of the year. But his only solution is electric cars. Has he not heard of public transport? He doesn’t mention it at all in the speech.
SMH - Plea to Rees: save metro project
Business is urging the NSW Government not to abandon Sydney's North West Metro rail project, after Premier Nathan Rees said he was backing away from it. "It's too early for me to commit one way or the other to that project," Mr Rees told Fairfax Radio Network today. "I am pulling back from it."
But the Sydney Chamber of Commerce has urged the Government to push ahead with the project. "No one has ever claimed that a sustainable transport network is cheap, but we must invest to reap the rewards," chamber executive director Patricia Forsythe said in a statement. "I would urge the NSW Government not to get spooked and push ahead with this important strategic project."
SMH - Time to aim high on climate change
The latest report on climate change by the economics professor Ross Garnaut is the most disheartening government report I've read. It tells us how hugely destructive climate change is likely to be, but doubts that the world's governments will be able to agree on effective action to halt it. Now you know why economics is called the dismal science.
Peak Energy - Google's Clean Energy Plan
CNet reports on a plan being promoted by Google to fix America's energy problems, using a combination of energy efficiency and clean energy technology - Google sees energy solution in the math. Its encouraging to see the way Eric Schmidt outlined most of the solutions we need to put in place so succinctly to a audience of particularly influential people.
The Australian - Linc Energy upgrades its Surat coal resource
LINC Energy has continued its run of good news this week, announcing a resource update at its flagship Chinchilla project - boasting 100 years of coal at the site. The coal-to-liquids hopeful said it had increased the coal resource at its Queensland base from 401 million tonnes to 600 million tonnes. Managing director Peter Bond said the company had previously promised 300 million tonnes and it still had a long way to go to develop the resource, highlighting its further potential. ...
Mr Bond, with a 51 per cent stake in the company, said one tonne of coal was needed to create 1.5 barrels of diesel, meaning the updated resource had the potential to create 900 million barrels of diesel. "This shows we have good coal across the area and, as we expand the drilling, there is the likelihood of growing the resource to our top-end target of 800 million to 1 billion tonnes," he said.
The Australian - Geothermal merger: Panax in $15m bid for Osiris
The Australian - Nexus Energy offloads stakes in Crux Liquids (Browse Basin) project
The Australian - Cooper Energy to bid for Incremental Petroleum
The Australian - India's Tata buys 10pc stake in Geodynamics
The Australian - Hurricane Ike forces Neptune shutdown, Gulf evacuation
Peak Energy - The Power Of Atlantis
Peak Energy - Toyota On Peak Oil
Peak Energy - Google's Wave Powered Data Centres
Peak Energy - A Better Bug to Make Cellulosic Ethanol
Peak Energy - Ziggurats Of The Future
Peak Energy - The Energy Ball
Peak Energy - Change Is Coming



Supporters of worldwide drastic action always talk as if all countries will be losers. Some countries, including Russia, think they will be winners. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that humans tend to see things in relative terms, and might well accept a loss if their enemies suffer a greater loss. And countries which feel, rightly or wrongly, that their relative prosperity is unfairly low might like to just roll the dice. So if you want to get anywhere you need to:
But all this is fanciful. Consider the suggestion that we reduce emissions by 25% (or even 5%) by purely financial means (trade or tax). This means imposing huge pain until the market does its magic trick of producing an alternative. Politically impossible. The right answer is for the government to do a bit of winner picking (not a good idea in general), build some huge power infrastructure THEN bring in the carbon price that will make that infrastructure cost effective. If you don't prepare alternative infrastructure then the only way to get the reductions you want is demand destruction. You can call it an efficiency dividend, but you still can't sell it to the voters.
And indeed we see that the peak oil economic collapse is hitting NSW before the other states, and what does the government do in the face of falling revenue: shelve plans for more electric public transport. We're doomed.
Well - if we're relying on the NSW state govt to save us then you're right - we're doomed - especially if this is the new head garbo's first decision.
While I'm not a great fan of governments picking winners I do think they have a role to play in large infrastructure projects - so building a national grid (as per Neil's suggestion recently), quickly increasing the MRET (ratcheting it up a percent or two each year for the next couple of decades) and encouraging some CSP and wind equipment manufacturers to set up shop locally would be handy - as well as new public transport works.