An Update on ASPO-USA's Conference Sept. 21-23: Are You Going?

* ASPO-USA is holding its conference September 21-23 in Sacramento, CA, at the Hyatt Regency Sacramento. The website is here:

* Hotel Rooms at Special Conference Rate are selling out. ASPO-USA increased its block to accommodate but rooms are going fast.

* Special guest Bob Hirsch will provide Summary and Response for Monday. Monday's sessions:

-Oil: Once Cheap, Never Easy
-Pipedreams: Oil & Gas Delivery Bottlenecks
-Economic Impacts of $100 Oil: Energy is the Original Currency
-4 Billion New Consumers: What Asian Growth Means For East, West, And The World

More notes on events and updated schedule on lunch speakers below the fold. Make your plans to come to Sacramento today!

* New Closing Session: Our Energy Challenge: A Dialogue with Conference Speakers: By popular demand the 2008 Peak Oil Conference will close with an interactive panel discussion. Conference speakers will form our panel and respond to your questions.

* Networking Events Galore!

* Monday Keynote Lunch

The Shifting Playing field. Big Oil and Resource Nationalism
- Jim Buckee retired CEO, Talisman Energy
- Introduction by Jeremy Gilbert

*Tuesday Keynote Lunch
- The Power of Flight: The Future of Aviation
- Michael Boyd, President, The Boyd Group Inc.

Looks like an interesting lineup, with solid, knowledgeable presenters such as Dr. Hirsch, Matt Simmons, Jim Buckee, Jim Gilbert, David Hughes, etc, including several of our very own Oil Drummers.

> - The Power of Flight: The Future of Aviation

And this should prove to be a lively topic...

Yes will be very interested in this session, I hope some of the content will make it onto the website.

The local airport company (Palmerston North, NZL) has an expansionary mindset, and despite the pulling out of a budget Trans-Tasman airline - still thinks that it will and can offer an international air service.

They are of course seriously deluded - I suspect that they will end up with a strandard asset like Hagerstown, Maryland and their $65 million white elephant of a runway.

Blair M. Rogers

Peak Oil Organizers Birds of a Feather at ASPO-USA's Peak Oil Conference

Everyone who is organizing their community for a post peak world (or wants to), should come to this Birds of a Feather meeting after Monday night's panel "Visions of a Post-Peak Oil Future."

Come meet other people who are educating their local governments, teaching people how to grow food, giving speeches to their community and more. Find out what's working and what's not working in other communities. Bring extra business cards for just this event.

This BOF is for networking -- it will be held in the pool area and you won't see a PowerPoint presentation the whole time you're there. Please pluck up your courage, stick out your hand and introduce yourself! Personally, I'm looking forward to meeting in person the people that I only type to online. I will be there for 8pm; it ends when it ends.

ASPO-USA is providing this space for networking and invites all interested attendees of the conference to attend this informal networking activity. If you want to contact me for any reason, send an email to aangel (at) postpeakliving (dot) com

See you in Sacramento,
-André Angelantoni
Co-Founder Post Carbon Marin

I'd love to be there. I hope you'll post a report at PostPeakLiving or!

Transition Cotati

If Totoniela were presenting I would make great effort to attend.


Hello Souperman,

Thxs for the plug, but I won't be there. I suggested earlier that some TopTODer clue in Bill Doyle [topdog of POT] to Peak Everything, then have him present at ASPO. He would probably get his statistical staff to pound out an impressive report on the potential 'What, Where, When, Why, and How' of future declining global I-NPK & sulfur flowrates caused by declining net FF flowrates, plus additional stats on the need for ramping O-NPK flowrates.

IMO, just as the Oil Megaprojects Report shows oilfield development delays: this could probably also be extrapolated further into an I-NPK greenfield delay wikiproject. For example: will the mega huge plans for the MiddleEast's mines and Haber-Bosch plants be on schedule? Or will they miss their current projected completion timeslots thus forcing I-NPK prices higher as we annually add another 80 million more mouths to feed?

Recall that countries went to O-NPK wars [see War of the Pacific, Guano Wars, Atacama Desert] long before we had any extensive data gathering and analysis abilities on the guano and nitrate deposits. The scale and duration of future I-NPK wars might be mitigated by proactive and early expert analysis.

I haven't done the research, but the Saskatchewan potash[K] mines may be in a relatively good future timeline position if hydropower electrojuice energizes their operations. I am guessing that the phosphate[P] mines and beneficiation factories in Florida and Morocco are mostly FF-powered, therefore, they may have a much more difficult future timeline keeping their flowrates up. My feeble two cents.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I plan to be there. I will probably be the only attendee who has known Boone Pickens since 1945.

I will probably modify my talk on "Peak Everything -Non-energy Limits" to something more related to the last 2 weeks in the energy will remain a surprise (to me as well...;-)

To me the last two weeks demonstrated:

1)that too many investors got into energy without understanding it. Reflexivity is alive and well
2)impact of money > impact of hurricane shut in production (or anything else for that matter) on energy prices
3)marginal cost increases have so far only hurt expected earnings, not raised commodity pricing
4)the 'belief' in peak oil probably took a major psychological back seat
5)fannie mae bailout, GM easy loans, etc are even more examples of steep discount rated behaviour - e.g. living for the moment irrespective of future costs
6)not only do we need high price signal for alt energy change, but we need economy to not be in dumper otherwise most people can't afford paradigm shift
7)wealth inequality is going to continue to increase
8)the average ASPO attendee will be poorer in monetary terms (but perhaps have more knowledge...)
9)that if you watch hurricanes, markets, and TOD, while drinking beer you will gain about 1 pound/day

One factor which I would not discount is forced selling of energy positions, in order to raise cash to meet other obligations.

yup. see #1 and #2 above. i think prime brokers are forcing their clients to reduce leverage too (e.g. if a large hedge fund had $3 billion in capital - they could control $15 billion in energy (or other things), but now the broker is telling them - only 6 billion, meaning if they had full positions of short finance stocks and long energy (either commodity or stocks), they now HAVE to unwind...which is:
a)sending bad signal to policymakers
b)making incredible long term investment opportunities for others
c)making it less likely they will send bad signal to policymakers next time up...
d)scaring the crap out of people

Bill Gross of PIMCO has posted his Sept newsletter which goes a long way in explaining what is occuring in all markets.


i pretty much agree with his general explanation -this has been a deleveraging and has impacted the markets that were most leveraged (in short term).

It is also there is a spring in his step while writing that - PIMCO was one of the only buyers of mortgages in past few weeks ahead of FNM/FRE bailout, they had windfall yesterday in the billions (mortgages tightened 2 point and only widened today about 6 ticks)

I am not sure Mr. Gross understands energy howerver. I wonder if he will be attending ASPO - last year I would say about 1/6 of attendees were hedge fund types...

I came across this article this evening which may be of interest to you. Don Coxe writes BASIC POINTS for the Bank of Montreal and has been very bullish on oil for the past +5 years.

This article gives another aspect to what is occuring in the markets.

9) that if you watch hurricanes, markets, and TOD, while drinking beer you will gain about 1 pound/day

This effect was first noted in 1978 by an obscure researcher by the name of B. Phatter. It's not generally known, but his paper Synchronistic Weather and Petroleum Events and their Impact on Weight Gain led to the modern day Jenny Craig.

Among his findings was the observation that wives didn't like bad weather, petroleum events or weight gain, especially on their husbands. Other researchers downplayed Phatter's paper as, "Bloody obvious" and "So self-evident as to be meaningless. Hasn't he ever had a girlfriend?"

ATTN: to all TODers attending ASPO

I hope that all flowrate imbibing of your favorite yeasty beverage will include the 'Peakoil Shoutout' when your immediate reserve hits the half-empty mark. I am still trying to make this a new cultural norm.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

As a general rule, I wonder if the average person drinks the first half of a beer or the second half, faster?

Depends on two variables--Supply of beer and/or supply of money. A third variable might come into play depending upon opening hours for beer sales. A fourth variable would be type of beer.

Generally, I drink the last half fastest unless there's a deficiency in the first two variables. In the days when I partied into the early morn, the last beer would be finished real slow. The "koolaide" beers like Bud, Miller, Busch, etc., I olny like real cold, so they go down fast before they cam warm and become like Coors at any temp. But then, I'm certainly not average.

I suspect there is no empirical evidence per se, but that the second half is usually consumed faster.
a)it's not as cold because its been sitting there longer
b)the mind is that much more impaired so there is a positive feedback mechanism to have another (at least on the first few-negative feedback after more than 3-4)
c)it 'looks' more asthetic to have a fuller as opposed to less full glass.

Would that oil were so simple...