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DrumBeat: August 16, 2008
Posted by Leanan on August 16, 2008 - 10:34am
Brown calls California a model for energy efficiency; Calls for R&D tax breaks
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Legal Newsline)--California Attorney General Jerry Brown told Legal Newsline he believes America needs an efficiency expert.In a wide-ranging interview Friday, Brown said the United States must reduce its dependency on foreign oil, which would save billions of dollars through increasing energy efficiencies.
...When asked how much stock he put into Peak Oil theories - a belief that the world has reached the peak of its oil production and will soon face severe shortages - Brown said it's better to think ahead than remain skeptical.
"(Peak Oil) is certainly is a risk," Brown said. "If you totally ignore it you'll be caught with your pants down it will be pretty bad. So you have to pay attention. Oil is going to get harder to get and more expensive. That's a fact."
OPEC official says output cuts may be needed
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An Iranian official in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Saturday that the producers group is considering leaving oil production levels unchanged or perhaps even trimming them to shore up flagging prices and defend market share."The market is oversupplied by at least 1 million barrels a day. If OPEC would like to remove this additional oil out of the market, then OPEC has to cut some production," OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Dow Jones in a telephone interview.
Shell: Pulling workers due Fay; no output shut
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Shell Oil Co said it was pulling 200 workers from the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Fay, but no offshore production was shut as of Saturday morning.The workers are not essential to Shell's offshore operations, the company said in a statement.
Ecuador says to meet Chevron over $16 bln lawsuit
QUITO (Reuters) - Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said on Saturday he plans to meet with Chevron Corp officials and lawyers for 30,000 jungle residents who are suing the U.S. oil giant for up to $16 billion over environmental damages.
The eruption in 1600 of a seemingly quiet volcano in Peru changed global climate and triggered famine as far away as Russia.
A Bull on Energy, A Bear on Nearly Everything Else - Interview with Eric Sprott, CEO, Sprott Asset Management
Barron's: You're a believer in the peak-oil thesis, which says that global oil production has topped out. How much time do we have left before the supply dries up?Sprott: We aren't going to run out of oil in the next 100 years, but it will keep getting harder and more expensive to obtain. ...We spend more every year and get no more net production. And the list of countries whose oil production has peaked keeps growing, including Russia, which for eight consecutive months has had year-over-year declines. Companies have the same problem. The latest results from Exxon showed that its production was down about 3%.
Barron's: But don't all the new oil-finding and drilling technologies help?
Sprott: We've made great strides in technology; it's true. Every year, there's something new. We see people get some stripper oil well to go from seven barrels a day to 15, by using sonic-resonance or water-flow technology or nitrogen injection, or whatever. But technology can simply speed up the depletion rate. A big fear is that the largest oil field in the world, Saudi Arabia's Gowar, which brings us just above 4 million barrels a day -- 5% of global oil -- is being depleted. They put 6 million to 7 million barrels of water into the formation every day. Oil floats in water, so as the water level moves up, the oil rises to the top. Someday, the water level will go above where they are producing the oil, and they'll just get water. There's not going to be a slow decline rate at Gowar. When it finally goes, there's going to be a very quick decline.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009....The skyrocketing price of oil is obviously a central element in the accelerating price spiral. But a sea change in China's role is beginning to have a huge impact as well.
Poll: Government mistrusted on energy
Lindsley found that 74 percent of those polled thought Pickens' plan could work, but 65.7 percent of them said Congress would never allow the initiative to succeed, and would instead pass laws and regulations to block it.Only 28.4 percent believe Congress would help the plan succeed by passing supportive legislation.
The results are somewhat surprising, Lindsley said, in that they show Americans are optimistic about the solvability of the energy crisis, but pessimistic about their government.
"People see a solution out there, but they don't expect Congress to do anything about it," he said.
Changing of the Guard: Pemex Production to Come from New Fields
Mexican oil production will fall to 2.7 million to 2.8 million barrels a day next year as the country's main oil field continues to decline rapidly, Carlos Morales, the head of exploration and production at Petroleos Mexicanos, said Thursday.Mexican output has slid by 20% since peaking in 2004, and officials warn that the country will see exports completely dry up over the next decade unless Pemex accelerates oil exploration in new areas such as the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The 2009 estimate is the latest in a series of downward revisions by Pemex. Last year the company planned to keep output above 3 million barrels a day for the next few years. Now Pemex expects average output of 2.85 million barrels a day this year, with more declines in 2009.
Shell: No Progress Fixing Nigeria Oil Pipeline
Repairs to a damaged oil pipeline in Nigeria have been struggling to make significant progress, Royal Dutch Shell said on Friday.Shell's Nembe Creek trunkline, located at Kula in Rivers state in the restive Niger Delta, was sabotaged in late-July.
The Anglo-Dutch oil major declared force majeure on Bonny Light crude exports to free itself from meeting its contractual obligations through to September.
"Repair work is not progressing as much as we want due to some security concerns. No real progress," a Shell spokesman said.
Nigeria: Vandals Rupture Agip Oil Pipeline in Delta
SUSPECTED pipeline vandals have ruptured Nigeria Agip Oil Company (NAOC) pipelines in Burutu Local Governmnt Area of Delta State but unfortunately for them, they could not accomplish their mission of carting away the oil pipes.Saturday Vanguard learnt that the vandals, thinking that there was no oil in the pipeline, tampered with the pipeline at three points, only for oil to start gushing out.
"Because their mission was to dismember and steal the pipes, they took to their heels on seeing that oil was flowing everywhere. However, they have seriously polluted Okontu community and the neighbouring communities by their criminal action", a source told this reporter.
Why car drivers should be grateful to bus passengers
The bus is the unsung hero of Welsh transport. It carries around 119 million passenger journeys every year.If those people shifted to car, we’d have at least 50 million more car journeys adding to traffic jams, pollution and the shortage of parking.
Even if you never use the bus, you should be grateful it’s there.
Hamas reportedly takes gas from cabbies
GAZA (UPI) -- Taxi drivers in Gaza complain that the Hamas government has been confiscating their gas tanks to get cooking fuel for Ramadan."Hamas police stopped me and confiscated my gas tank," one driver told the Israeli news agency Ynetnews.com. "They told me the gas is required for Ramadan now."
The driver said he would be unable to buy food if he could not make a living.
UAE: Life is a misery for ‘married bachelors’
With the sky-rocketing rents and cost of living they cannot afford to bring their families here. Unfortunately, the rising cost of living has not yet reflected in the wage levels of the expatriates in the region. And with the growing travel expenditure, frequent travels to home have been curtailed.According to recent reports, a survey by Arabian Business indicated that nearly 60 per cent of the expatriate population in the Gulf region are contemplating moving away from the region in the wake of the rising cost of living here.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Another penny came off the national average price of gasoline Saturday, the 30th straight daily decline, bringing the total drop in the period to more than 35 cents a gallon.
Think flying stinks? It may get worse
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Jet setters, get ready for more fare hikes and fewer flights.Industry experts say that embattled airlines, despite a recent downturn in oil prices, are likely to keep raising ticket prices, adding fees and reducing service.
Sri Lanka power demand slowing: expert
(LBO) - Sri Lanka faces no immediate threat of blackouts with growth in demand for electricity slowing down as industries grapple with the highest power costs in Asia, an energy expert said.
Phil Flynn: The Day the Demand Died
A long, long, time ago, I can still remember how the oil demand used to make me smile. And I knew if it had a chance it would make the oil dance and the bulls would be happy for a while. But the housing crisis made me shiver, with every buy order I delivered. Bad news on the doorstep, I couldn't take one more step. I can't remember if I cried when my Bear Stearns stock just got fried. But something touched me deep inside the day the de-mand died.So bye, bye Miss American pie parked the Chevy by the levy because the fuel tank was dry. And good old boys were drinking whiskey and rye singing this is where the SUV dies. This is where the SUV dies.
Crude Oil: Supply and Demand Prospects
Despite the high prevailing prices, demand in 2008 is expected to total 86.9 million barrels compared to 85.96 mb/d in 2007. For 2009, global oil demand is expected to reach 87.7 mb/d.
Rationing was way of life in city during war years
The middle of the Second World War, the year that steel pennies replaced copper ones, the year canned food, meat, fat, cheese and shoes were added to ration lists, the year Toronto ran out of coal and the fuel comptrollers insisted that everyone keep their homes at 65 F (18 C) to help conserve energy.
Mileage increases appeal of scooters
Nationally, The Motorcycle Industry Council in Irvine, Calif., estimated 131,000 new scooters were sold in the United States in 2007, nearly double the 70,000 sold in 2002 and triple the 42,000 new units sold in 2000. Meanwhile, U.S. sales of new scooter units were up 24 percent for the first quarter of 2008 compared with the same period a year ago, Mike Mount, Motorcycle Industry Council spokesman, said."With the economy the way it is, everyone is looking to save where they can, and the gas pump is a pretty tangible place to do that," Mount said.
Petropolitics at heart of Russia-Georgia clash
The 1,100-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline provides only about 1 percent of the global demand for oil. But, as Prof. Michael Klare of Amherst College notes: "There's not a lot of spare [crude oil] capacity" in the world.In the long-running struggle for control of Caspian oil and gas and influence in the ex-Soviet states of that region, the clash has been a blow to US clout.
"The Russians come out of this as winning this round," says Professor Klare. "They are the power brokers in this part of the world…. But there will be more skirmishes to come."
Russia-Georgia Conflict Fueled by Rush to Control Caspian Energy Resources (audio, video, and transcript)
Human Rights Watch has accused both Russian and Georgian forces of killing and injuring civilians through indiscriminate attacks over the past week of fighting. Professor and author Michael Klare joins us to talk about how the Russian-Georgian conflict is largely an energy war over who has access to the vast oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian region.
Iran gambles over Georgia's crisis
Georgia is one of Iran's "near neighbors" and as a result of geographical proximity and important political and geostrategic considerations, the current Russia-Georgia conflict is closely watched by Tehran, itself under threat of military action by the US and or Israel, which may now feel less constrained about attacking Iran in light of Russia's war with Georgia.
The Russian empire strikes back
For the first time in 30 years, Russia has initiated a war beyond its borders. For the first time in 20 years, an elected democratic regime is being threatened by force. For the first time in 20 years, the West is standing exposed and helpless, with its stock exchanges, galloping euro, flourishing economy and highfalutin talk of human rights. The planes and tanks in Georgia have returned to Russia its status of superpower.In a twist on Fukuyama's "end of history" hypothesis, former Israeli ambassador to Washington Itamar Rabinovich asserted that this week it seemed as though "history is returning in a big way, and America has to cope with a new reality." According to Rabinovich, "The Russians' power play succeeded and is likely to have a great many implications."
Southern Africa: China's Thirst for Oil Exposes Gap in Regional Naval Policy
EXPERTS are calling on SA to lead the African Union in formulating a China policy to determine strategies that will protect the security of Chinese oil supplies from west Africa that are transported via the Cape.
Pennsylvania: King wants state to regulate heating oil
State Rep. Chris King, D-142, wants the state to regulate the heating oil industry, a move he believes will help homeowners suffering from skyrocketing heating bills.
If Congress Lifts the Offshore Oil Drilling Moratorium, What Happens Next?
If Congress bows to pressure from Republicans and decides to lift its restrictions on offshore oil drilling, it is unclear exactly what would happen next. Such a move would take the country into uncharted waters, and there is no guarantee that a substantial amount of new drilling would take place at all.
Saudi Arabia to build oil refinery in Turkmenistan
Turkmen president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov received a member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family Prince Saud ben Meshal ben Abdulaziz Al Saud, August 14. The meeting was also attended by Development Specialist of the Saudi ARAMCO company Abdullah Mohammed Al Subyani, and Executive Vice President of Dharhan Global oil and gas company Adel Mohammed Al Gosaybi.The sides discussed prospects of cooperation and implementation of joint projects, including the construction of oil and gas refinery, the Ashgabat correspondent of Turkmenistan.ru reports.
Kuwait eyes Asian food supply, agri investments
Kuwait is talking with Asian countries about securing food supplies and investing in agriculture as the Gulf state looks to diversify its sources of food, state news agency Kuna reported on Saturday.It said food imports was a key topic on a trip by prime minister Shiekh Nasser Al-Mohammad Al-Sabah to eight Asian countries to boost trade ties.
Report: Climate change to fuel wildfires in West
Wildfires are projected to burn twice as much land across the West by late this century if the climate warms as expected, a conservation group said in a report.Warmer springs and longer summers since the mid-1980s already have resulted in a fourfold increase in the number of wildfires and a sixfold increase in the amount of land burned compared with the period between 1970 and 1986, according to the National Wildlife Federation report.
“I see these fires as part of an ecological transition,” said Steven Running, a professor of ecology at the University of Montana.
Hurdles to blending more ethanol remain
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require the nation's oil industry to blend 36 billion gallons of ethanol into the fuel supply by 2022. If federal incentives bring the necessary research breakthroughs, more than half of that will come from cellulosic ethanol made from wood, corn cobs, switchgrass and other plant materials. Some 15 billion gallons will be from corn ethanol.There's just one problem.
If most of the cars on the road can burn only E-10 (gasoline with 10% ethanol), there won't be anyplace to go with all that ethanol. The Department of Energy estimates that by 2013, or even earlier, the market for E-10 in the U.S. will be saturated.
GM to finish electric car design by mid-September
TRAVERSE CITY, Michigan (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said on Thursday it would finalize the design of the all-electric Chevy Volt by mid-September and aims to have 50 prototypes with production-ready parts by the end of 2008.GM has been racing to finish development of the Volt in time for its planned launch in 2010. The Volt is the centerpiece of GM's effort to move away from large SUVs, as truck sales tumble and gasoline prices remain high.
Who's laughing now? Murti's detractors eat crow
We are not returning to an era of cheap energy.It was three years ago, an eternity in the foggy world of commodities trading, when Arjun Murti, a New Jersey native and analyst at Goldman Sachs, published a research note that competitors charged was riddled with irresponsible conjecture.
On a day when oil was trading at $55 (all U.S. figures) per barrel, Murti projected a "super spike" in which a barrel of crude could fetch $105 in the next few years.
Kevin Kerr, owner of the New York commodities research firm that bears his name, branded Murti's report "nothing more than hot air." An investors' blog suggested darkly that Murti was involved in a conspiracy to jack up the value of his firm's oil investments.
Today, Murti's projection seems almost timid.
Oil touches 3-month low on stronger US dollar
NEW YORK - Oil fell to its lowest price in three months Friday, briefly touching the $111 level after the dollar muscled higher and OPEC predicted the world's thirst for fuel next year will fall to its lowest point since 2002.Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $1.24 to settle at $113.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to $111.34, its lowest price since May 2 and more than $35 — or 24 percent — below its July 11 trading record above $147.
As high energy costs force countries around the globe to cut back on consumption, crude prices have plummeted and are now within striking distance of $100 a barrel, a level first reached Feb. 19.
Nigeria's oil reserves hit 33.6 bln barrels
ABUJA (AFP) - Crude oil reserves in Nigeria, the world's eighth largest exporter, have increased by 12 percent over the past year to 33.6 billion barrels, a top oil official said Friday."As at today, we have an oil reserve base of 33.6 billion barrels," Abubakar Yar'Adua chief of the state-run oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) told reporters.
The reserves in the OPEC member state stood at 30 billion barrels a year ago.
Russia is not as powerful as it looks
Russia's Achilles heel is its economy. This has been growing fast, at over 7% a year. Wealth has spread out from the energy companies and the government, helping to create a prosperous middle class. But the economy remains dangerously dependent on energy and raw materials. Russia has very few high-tech industries, its record on innovation is appalling, it has too few small and medium-sized companies and its service industries are backward.
Storm Fay to become hurricane threat to Cuba and U.S.
Despite the mountainous terrain of Haiti, which had been expected to hamper the storm's development, Fay held together quite well overnight, the Miami-based hurricane center said.The storm's forecast track had also shifted a little to the south and west, meaning it would spend more time than initially expected over the warm waters that provide tropical cyclones with fuel, and it was now expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it approached the southern Cuban coast.
The Business Pundit Energy Plan: Electrification, flex power, and a smart grid
Increase nuclear reactors? Run cars on natural gas? Burn trash for energy? Institute stringent speed limits and cap-and-trade programs?Business Pundit sorted through a slew of reports, comments, and statistics to come up with a plan that makes sense for both sustainability and the economy. This plan is a compilation of the ideas we found most pertinent and useful.
Review: Profit from the Peak Oil
Is the end of a cheap fossil fuel era at hand? How will we make the transition from a world dependent on hydrocarbon energy to one powered by a mix of hydrocarbons and renewable energy, and can we profit from this coming shift?
Campaign 2008: Al Franken touts energy proposals
“I like the idea of domestic oil,” says Franken, a former “Saturday Night Live” writer and actor and satirist. “But we need to get off of this technology, because we know that we’ve either reached or about to reach peak oil.”The United States has 3 percent of the world’s oil reserves, but the nation uses 25 percent of the supply. In addition to energy sources other than oil, Franken said an energy policy must include energy efficiency.
“Energy efficiency means green buildings,” he said., adding that 40 percent of energy is used by buildings in electricity and heating and cooling.
The industry line was that for every $1 hike in the price of crude, expect to pay a penny more at the pumps.Well, what about the reverse?
OPEC Plays Oil Junkies for Suckers
We finally were beginning to turn away from oil. How did OPEC, the beneficiary of one of the largest transfers of wealth in the history of mankind, respond?Here's a dispatch from the Aug. 13 edition of the Financial Times: "OPEC pushed its oil production to the highest level in its 48-year history last month, even as demand was slipping in the United States and Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday."
Where does the money go in a $116 barrel of oil?
An economist from the American Petroleum Institute details the costs.
Cyclists should get share of federal infrastructure money: Ottawa MP
Bike paths, lanes, bridges and cycling facilities are getting very little of the government investment in infrastructure, something that should change in light of rising gas prices and concerns over climate change, say an Ottawa member of Parliament and a group of local cycling activists.Both a portion of the federal money already announced for infrastructure and funding in the next federal budget should be earmarked specifically for cycling infrastructure, said Paul Dewar, the NDP MP for Ottawa Centre, at a news conference Friday.
Farms in Brazil and India must adapt or roast in heat
Farmers in Brazil and India may suffer less from climate change than previously assumed – if they can continue to adapt to hotter weather, a new study suggests.Even so the devastation in these countries and other low-latitude countries is going to be much higher than in the northern regions of the rich west, says Robert Mendelsohn at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.
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The Divers
One step further along the way of finalizing my version of ELM.
In the first category (yesterday) you saw Saudi Arabia and Russia – the Marquee Players . Now, I present you The Divers. Namely: Mexico, Norway, Venezuela and Nigeria. The causes of their respective slumps may be different, but the result is the same. Fast evaporating net exports.
The Divers exported 9.3 mbpd back in 2001. This number is now down to almost 6.9 mbpd or a decline of 26%. (And to 6.4 mbpd in July 2008)
In effect: in 2001 they accounted for 23.7% of Total Net Exports. This number is now down to 15.3%. (Or a reduction of 35.4% in shares.)
Here are the graphs:
Have a nice day, everybody!
It would appear that Saudi Arabia is closing in a cumulative shortfall of over a billion barrels of oil--between what they would have exported at their 2005 net export rate and what they have actually exported. I estimate that it will be about 912 mb at the end of 2008.
The actual EIA Saudi net export numbers for 2005, 2006 and 2007 are shown, along with my estimate for 2008:
2005: 9.1 mbpd
2006: 8.5
2007: 7.9
2008: 8.4*
*Assumptions: average annual total liquids rate of 10.9 mbpd and consumption of 2.5 mbpd.
It would appear that 2009 will tell the tale in regard to whether 2005 was their final annual peak, but I estimate that their 2008 rebound in production will result in an annual decline of about 700,000 bpd in net exports, versus their 2005 rate. Chalk another one up for the things the media don't tell you.
I can create another set of graphs if you are interested.
The Marquee Players + The Divers. That would be 6 countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria. These 6 account for 50% of Net Exports and (I think) would show a rather clear decline.
Is it worth creating in your opinion? It may be useful. I can't tell you at the moment.
Of course, that was our premise for modeling the top five. I do think that the four key horsemen of the 2008 net export decline are Russia, Norway, Mexico & Venezuela, partly because they are all so close to major consuming areas.
OK. Here you go. The Marquee Players and The divers combined.
Nice, isn't it?
Very good work. BTW, if you are so inclined, an interesting graph would be estimated combined monthly net oil exports for the top net oil exporters (either top 10 or all those with one mbpd or more of net oil exports) versus average monthly oil prices, either WRI or Brent.
I will do that. Let me finish categorizing and grouping the countries first. (There will be 2 or 3 more groups - I'm not sure at the moment.) The process should take another 1-2 day(s). After having done that I'll show you all the categories summed, plus my projections for each group in the following years.
That way we will have a detailed ELM projection. I also have a bimodal function for elasticity, so that could lead to long term price estimates.
Give me a few more days, please. Will get back to you.
Here is something else I've just found out. (I kind of knew it all along but it looks 'great' presented this way.)
As we all know, Mexico's exports are dropping like a stone, now over 20% y.o.y. Here is why.
The curves for domestic consumption and exports intersect one another in 2003-2004. From then on, an exponential growth of domestic consumption AND an exponential decline in all liquids production causes exports to decline rapidly.
So once the domestic consumption of Russia gets bigger than its exports... Or to put in in another way: Once the exporter countries' combined consumption is greater than the sum of their exports... it is all over in 5-6 years.
Wow, eastender, you are doing excellent work! Did I mention fast? Yeah, and fast too!
Thank you.
I know your website is in Hungarian, but do you also post your English graphs? If so, could you remind me what the web address is again?
I rarely post graphs in English, sorry. However, numbers and graphs are easy to understand. So I'll give you the address, you'll find a few models there. (I started only 3 weeks ago, so the number is limited... but we expand fast.)
http://terminus.blog.hu
And thanks for the kind words.
Peak oil is really a problem of providing enough liquid fuels for transport in 'net importer' countries, that is the crude (C+C) element of EIA estimates of all liquids, the stuff that is traded and refined into useful fuel - production that must grow at ~1.6% per year for OECD BAU growth according to the IEA.
The C+C figures are somewhat difficult to come by, but if you go to individual countries first-hand data a much more worrying picture emerges than the EIA 'all liquids' declines!
Underlying world C+C production decline rate is currently ~5% or ~3.75mbpd - we are relying on new megaprojects and viable alternates for the 1.6% growth required, and this has failed miserably for 4 years now.
For the next several years (according to the Wiki oil megaprojects) we can expect increases of 4.14, 3.60, 3.78, 3.11, 2.8, 0, 0.90, 0.53, 0.48 mbpd - they clearly don't keep production level!
The top 20 'net exporters' domestic growth rate of C+C consumption is currently ~8%.
In short, from my studies, 'net exports' of C+C peaked in 2005 around the same time as Eastender's charts show for 'all liquids' net exports but with a steeper decline rate.
It will be the ELM effects that seriously affect 'net importer' countries - the economic repercussions of unaffordable fuel prices is how we will feel it.
I have a model for this I showed the other day. I have the decline rate at 5.7% in 2008 and possibly at 6.3% next year.
Here is my model for C&C production in the past and coming years, with my version of megaprojects.
And here it is with the 'official' wikipedia megaprojects database.
As someone who has contributed to the Wiki Megaprojects database (in a very minor way, wrt to some Canadian Oil Sands projects) I am wondering how people can use the Wiki to get an accurate picture of coming supply. Here's why I have this question: alot of the Candian megaprojects come on in stages, not all at once. But on the Wiki page, we are asked to enter the peak flows. In addition, most of these projects are continually being delayed. Nexen's Long Lake was delayed. CNQ's Horizon is "not quite" on schedule. Suncor's new projects have encountered some problems. I just wonder, how one can model supply additions, with these ongoing delays, in the oil sands.
Gregor
IMO the data (even the official data), in general, is very poor - probably deliberately so, for some reason!
Just bear in mind that the lines on the charts are an optimistic 'best case' - plan that reality will be worse than that then life will seem easy if the situation isn't quite so bad after all.
The official decline rates in important exporting countries extracting from under the ocean (like Norway and Mexico) are very high and deteriorating!
BAU it ain't!
Yes, I'm aware of this problem. That's the reason I created a 'projected gain coming from megaproject' graph, shown up the thread. I'm not sure my numbers are valid, but generally speaking they show less coming from megaprojects up to 2011 and somewhat more than the 'official number' after 2012. That means: projects are late and tend to move from one year to the next or the year after. (Or, as with Kashagan, many years later - if at all.)
So I do know even my numbers are a bit optimistic... but I know of no better way to create an estimate.
Do you? If so, please don't hesitate to let me know. Thx in advance.
Eastender,
What is your definition of a decline rate? I see C&C production increasing in 2008 (compared to 2007) and an increase in 2009 (compared to 2008).
So I don't understand your statement that you see a decline rate of 5.7% in 2008 and 6.3% in 2009.
Thanks,
Suyog
world decline rate or DR = ((Y2-Y1)/Y1) X 100
where Y2 = Y1 + M - D
M = total C&C coming from megaprocejts
D = observed decline
Y1 = the present year
Y2 = the following year
It's a rather simple (but absolutely functional) model I used / developed. It has a long version but that would not fit into a post. I put the basic model in one of the Drum Beats a few days ago.
the DR term you use is the effective annual decline rate, de. i find it is easier to work with nominal decline, d. the two are related by d = -ln(1-de).
if the decline is only a few %, though the two can be used more or less interchangably.
for de =1%, d=1.005%
but for de =10%, d=10.5%
I guess my difficulty stems from the fact that you talk of "decline rate" (i.e., decreasing C&C production) whereas production increased in 2008 and is slated to increase again in 2009.
The three key factors which affect a net export decline are: consumption as a percentage of production at final peak; the rate of change in production and the rate of change in consumption. The biggest contributor to a rapid net export decline is consumption as a percentage of production at final peak, i.e., the larger that consumption is relative to production, the more rapid the net export decline rate.
Mexico, like our ELM, the UK and Indonesia, was consuming about half of production at final peak (2004 for Mexico). The ELM, the UK and Indonesia all went to zero in less than 10 years, and I suspect that Mexico will probably approach zero net oil exports in the 2010 to 2012 time frame.
Regarding Mexico, of course one of the reasons for increasing domestic consumption is the government subsidies for oil products. I thought I remembered the Mexican government announcing a couple of months ago that subsidies were to be gradually eliminated...wonder how that's going. The articles I read indicated that eliminating the subsidies would be politically difficult...the age-old problem.
Yes. That's the bottom line. See Mexico and compare it with Norway.
Thinking about it some more I realized that the decline in Russia will have a far greater effect than the decline in Saudi Arabia.
1) Russian decline comes sooner
2) Russian decline is steeper (at least in the first 5 years
3) Consumption is greater in Russia
4) The rate of change in consumption is about equal but Russia is just about to boom
+1 After the conflict in Georgia I have my doubts about the Russians giving it their all to provide energy at all costs...
In general I agree with your 'net export' graphs but IMO they are 'best case' - so, flows to importers are likely to be worse than indicated ( but bear in mind these are an interpretation of some quite poor/inconsistent data) - I think many people are being more positive about the future than maybe they should be. Even allowing for the poor data, IMO there are some difficult things for 'net importers' hidden in the raw data!
There appears to be quite a few people, in various countries, who are deliberately being 'economical with the truth', I wonder why? - maybe has something to do with "difficult to get somebody to understand something if their livelyhood depends on them not understanding it"! ... or telling people what they want to hear?
The graphs do NOT indicate the FUTURE. They are simply drawn using existing data from the PAST. I will show you the future projections next week. (I.e.: projections for the decline in net exports. E.g.: I have Russia at an 8% export decline next year.)
I have been modelling this since last June. I was SLIGHTLY optimistic, but not by much. For example I had WTI at USD 130 for July, and it turned out to be USD 133. Or I had the average WTI spot at USD 120 for 2008 and we are 114ish or so at the moment. As for production numbers I'm well within 0.5% with my predictions so far. (Reality being somewhat worse than predicted but not by much.)
So I agree with you: My views are best case. But pretty realistic, I think.
And as far as best case is concerned... I have C&C production at 60 mbpd in 2015. So that's a situation when 'our best is not good enough'. :-/
Also, Russia (at least their mature producing basins) is at a more advanced stage of depletion than Saudi Arabia. Our middle case has Russia approaching zero net oil exports around 2025.
My model also says 2025.
Isn't there some way you could post the graphs so I could click on them and see the right half. It is cut off on my browser and I am unable to see the most important years.
It stops at 2015, as I used a time window.
Here are the two graphs you cannot see properly:
http://terminus.blog.hu/media/image/YSPADDEN/augusztus/olajmega2/newmega...
http://terminus.blog.hu/media/image/YSPADDEN/augusztus/olajmega2/newmega...
However, you can also right-click the graphs and use the 'save as' funtion to download them onto your computer and open it from there.
Also, right-click and choose "open image in new window/tab." You'll see the entire image. Several browsers have this feature.
Great graphs. Net Exports and the ELM should be monthly reports at EIA. We are working on a report on contingency plans. I will post a draft before we finalize to assure we have outlined the status correctly.
What is your data source for these graphs?
For data of any one country I use EIA data where available. In some cases it is not (Norway). So those are calculated with IEA data. In the future I will also have to use (limited) BP data as well.
I know it's not the best of things to mix data coming from different institutions, however, it's still better than not using data at all. :-)
You can find most of this at: http://netoilexports.blogspot.com showing the top20 exporters since 2001.
As for total net exports, one should bear in mind that the top 20 account for 92-93% of the total. Earlier (2001ish) it was 92%. Right now it closer to 93%. 92.5% was the proportion I used however.
RE: OPEC Plays Oil Junkies for Suckers
Warren Brown's post at the WP is so hypocritical that it makes one want to retch. For years, he has been touting bigger-is-better cars and SUV's, with little concern for gas mileage as a writer for the WP. Now, he wants us to believe that OPEC is the sole cause of the recent high price for oil by limiting production to squeeze more dollars out of the U.S. consumer. He then blames OPEC's supposed increased production as the cause of the price decline over the past month. Nowhere does he mention the possibility that world production is peaking out and that OPEC's slight gain is just offsetting the declines from other nations.
He's pimping for the oil companies, who would not like it if the U.S. Government admitted that the Peak in conventional oil production is near and that the days of cheap fuel aren't going to return. That's because the oil companies might lose out if government(s) actually started to do something about switching to alternative resources. Doing so would result in a decrease in demand, thus keeping oil prices below what would be the market price without efforts to switch to non-oil alternatives.
E. Swanson
One more jog to the West and Fay threatens NO/GOM.
right now it looks like Apalachicola Bay.
Watching crude drop with a CAT 3 in the GOM will be interesting.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
And is there any doubt that NYMEX is completely ignoring the threat
from a Hurricane (s)?
It's a long way from a Cat 3. Thursday night it wasn't even a tropical depression.
We'll see what happens after it passes over Cuba.
Official: State has to rethink road funding
Alan,
Did you see this article in the advocate this morning? I live in a small town just outside of Baton Rouge (off of I-10 between BR and NO) and have always welcomed the thought of commuter rail between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. At least someone is considering mass transit, even if the short term developments appear meager.
Before Katrina there was not enough movement between Red Stick & Naw'lins to justify passenger rail. Kansas City Southern tracks are too slow (not well maintained, single track AFAIK) as well, and the State of Louisiana was willing to spend a pittance, if that.
Such a link would be a Stage II or Stage III project. Ideally, electrify and double track KCS tracks and improve them (they have a single track over the Mississippi @ BR with weight limits, unlike double track, unlimited weight bridge in New Orleans) and run single car EMUs (self propelled electric rail cars) several times/day in between increased freight service.
Baton Rouge is hopeless for Urban Rail feeding inter-city until deep post-Peak Oil. Many will drive regardless because where ever the train station is (best choice, LSU campus) it is far from where they want to go and no way to get there but by car.
Alan
I concur, but I had the station being downtown - even further away from most of the business developments in the city unfortunately.
I would have thought that Baton Rouge was one of the worst examples of urban/business sprawl that you can find in the US. But this guy doesn't seem to think so. He points to Phoenix as one of the worst. He also goes on to make this comment:
Is this just a simple case of spouting false hope to drum up new business for his architectural and planning firm? Maybe someone needs to invite you to speak to provide the community with a more realistic vision for the future of mass transportation and development in Baton Rouge.
To be honest, I am just happy to see that SOMEONE is giving thought to the future of this place.
I wasted a couple of years in BR and I would judge it worse than Phoenix, with differing weaknesses. Ultra low density in Phoenix, narrow and very poorly designed roads/development in Baton Rouge.
Alan
Phoenix isn't particularly sprawling by American standards. The Pheonix-Mesa Urbanized area (that is, the land surrounding Phoenix with a population density of more than 1000 people/square mile) which has 3683 people per square mile is denser than Atlanta, Houston, Baltimore or Detroit. That being said, it is more uniform in its density than Baltimore (for example) or Atlanta which have a few very densely populated areas surrounded by a sea of very low density sprawl. Like many western U.S. cities phoenix's core isn't very dense, but the density drops much more slowly as you move away from the center of town.
I would agree with the uniformity, but surprised at the density #s. One brother lives there and my parents in the winter.
Phoenix has the highest % of area devoted to the automobile of any city that I have seen. >50% in my judgment. (About 12% in my neighborhood. on the other end of the scale).
Alan
Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond the UK government is pouring more money into road schemes, the costs of which were grossly underestimated.
Cost of Britain's road-building projects soars by almost £4bn
Apparently, the Highways Agency based its calculations on the official inflation figures from the Retail Price Index, rather than the actual rate of inflation experienced by the construction industry. Of course, even if your cost-benefit analyses are biased, it doesn't hurt to make them even more rosy by underestimating the cost side of the equation.
That turkey plant is in the news again:
Changing World Technologies Files for IPO; Planned Expansion to 54M Gallons of Renewable Diesel Fuel Oil per Year
Soylent Oil is people!
http://www.oilempire.us/soylent.html
I loved that throwaway joke in Idiocracy ... "New improved Soylent Green -- now with more babies and children!"
Re: "It (Kuwait) said food imports was a key topic on a trip by prime minister Shiekh Nasser Al-Mohammad Al-Sabah to eight Asian countries to boost trade ties (linked uptop)."
I foresee a lot of future world trade consisting of net food and net energy exporters trading with each other. Not a good time to be both a net food and net energy importer--and countries like Japan and Switzerland have urged adoption of trade agreements that would bar food producers from unilaterally banning food exports (such as some bans on rice exports this year).
Turns out the world isn't flat after all.
There does seem to be increasing awareness of this, as evidenced in Krugman's article yesterday about the "Great Illusion."
But I'm not sure if he understands that the underlying cause is scarcity. It's not just people who don't share our values, or "economic irrationality." Hoarding is in fact perfectly rational behavior in the face of scarcity. And WWII was not an outbreak of insanity. It was part of our difficult transition to the oil economy. The transition from the oil economy is likely to be worse.
When you look at history,Leanan,many times rational economic action has resulted in tragic consequence[think potato famine Ireland]Preemptive moves by governments who have a collective memory of famine,unlike our own here in the USA is to be expected.I would also expect that our own risk of extended food shortages here is higher,due to a belief that "the market" will solve shortages.Who is to say that the last 10thousand tons of wheat in the northwest would not be sold to china,for export,regardless of the supply for 'locals'?
Agreed. It's very rational. hoarding == stockpiling == whatever-the-opposite-of-'just in time'-is
Hoarding is a rational response to uncertainty of supply. If you cannot be certain that you will be able to get oil or food when you need them, then it makes sense to have large inventories to smooth out the rough patches in the road. However, hoarding in not an effective strategy to deal with long term scarcity. With respect to oil and OECD standards of living, the world has been in a state of scarcity for decades. The response to this situation is not to hoard but to insure that the lion's share of the world's vital resource flow to the 'right' people by any mean necessary, including war, assassination, political coups, embargoes, and predatory trade agreements. Without a doubt intensification of these traditional strategies will be the initial response to increasing levels of scarcity.
As economic woes worsen, major supermarkets are cutting prices in an attempt to prevent customers 'defecting' to budget supermarkets. However, the costs of these price promotions are often bourne not by the supermarkets themselves but directly or indirectly by their suppliers, hence growing concern from the National Union of Farmers.
Farmers say supermarkets must foot bill for price war
How much potential does the market dominance of the supermarkets have to become a powerful feedback loop as energy and I-NPK prices increase? They can't make their producers absorb the extra cost forever but it could cause significant problems in the nearer term.
Here's a question: If a barrel of oil is the same volume as a barrel of water, then why are 6-7 million barrels of water injected into Ghawar oil field for every 4 mbd of oil extracted?
I believe some of the water comes out with the oil and needs to be separated in a oil / water separation plant (COSP).
The percentage of water in the oil is referred to as the "water cut".
Francois
"Water Cut" is one variable. The reason is that while oil is lighter than water the difference in densities is very low. Turbulance will mix oil and water over a large volume. Mix 1/2 cup cooking oil with 1/2 cup water GENTLY with a spoon...wait a few hours and you will see it is still mixed. If you wait for a signifigant time the oil will mostly seperate and float on the water...however Gawar is run 24/7 so the turbulant mixing NEVER stops.
Another lesser variable is noowhere underground is a perfect water trap. There is leakage of water underground through pourus rock like sandstone, and also fractures in bedrock, and also underground streams etc.
Evolving Chinese Energy Policy ?
Leanan deleted a link earlier about higher Chinese excise taxes on larger engine cars (up to 40% vs. 1% for <1 liter cars). I think that this is important sign that China is preparing a broader based energy policy. Pollution was the given reason.
As "one child" policy shows, they can do that in China.
I have also noted that the railroad expansion, electrification of railroads and Urban Rail plans have shown steady increases and sometimes accelerated time tables for building.
The Communist Party has made expanding auto production a central part of their economic expansion (worked for the West ...). Now they are seeing the consequences. But, like riding a tiger, they cannot dismount this policy abruptly for fear of economic disruption and reduced hopes among the Chinese (neither good for social stability).
But I sense, to the extent possible, that they want to move away from increased oil use, slowly and step-wise in an evolutionary manner. As the EU may use GW as a reason to reduce oil dependence (with PO perhaps a greater reason ?), the Chinese may use pollution as their excuse.
Straws in the wind, sure. This is as much my "gut feel" as anything else.
Best Hopes for Rational Chinese Energy Policies,
Alan
I deleted it because it was posted here the other day, and it's not important enough to be rerun so soon (at least that early in the day). Over 90% of vehicles sold in China will be unaffected. Less than 1% of vehicles sold have engines large enough to see a tax rise. China doesn't want to hurt the market for autos. This is window dressing. If they were serious, they'd let fuel prices rise, instead of capping them.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation/story/751164.html
The dominos tumble....
This could be an object lesson in how local officials respond: Do they preserve utilities, police, and fire responders at all costs, and allow for shrinkage of the rest? Or do they offer "incentives" to anybody who promises a quick and painless rescue? What's the business model for disaster capitalism on a municipal scale - ?
It seems likethe state of California is headed in that direction, and would be a much bigger bankruptcy. (Not a municipality, I admit.)
California nightmare for the global economy?
I don't see anyone to bail these folks out. The monoline insurance companies can make good on a few bond defaults, but soon their assets will be exhausted. The federal government is going to have difficulty keeping up with the things it has guaranteed (Fannie, Freddie, and backup coverage on FDIC, PBGC), not to start getting into things it hasn't (states and municipalities, auto makers, airlines, insurance companies).
NYC was bailed out at least partly by its unions. The teachers' union invested its pension fund in city securities.
State workers have traditionally traded higher pay for job security, but when states and cities are in trouble, it's often the government employees who pay the price. It's harder to lay them off, but they can cut salaries. So far, the Governator has been unsuccessful in his attempts impose minimum wage on California state workers (and no wage on professionals like engineers and lawyers). But during the recession that got Clinton elected, some states had "furloughs" - all non-essential employees were ordered to stay home for a week or two, without pay. New York cut its employees' salaries 10% for ten weeks, or something like that. (The legislative branch was exempt, of course.)
It's probably a good time to increase your emergency fund, even if you think your job is safe.
New York City almost went bankrupt during the last energy crisis.
Other cities have gone bankrupt.
I don't think there will be major changes, at least not at first. There will be federal loans, bond sales, etc. Essential services will continue.
Question, Leanan. Curiosity.
You say "essential services will continue". How long do you see the chain of federal loans, bond sales being sufficient to maintain them?
It's not an eternally sustainable situation, but I'm curious for your gut feel of the time frame available for being ready for the next stage.
I haven't a clue, really, but I think it could go on for a lot longer than many here think.
Many thought civilization would collapse if oil hit $100 a barrel. Or that the US economy would collapse after Christmas last year. So far, BAU has continued, and I think it may continue for the rest of our natural lives...though under increasing stress.
I don't think it's sustainable, but I think there's a tendency to underestimate the sheer inertia of our current way of life. It can keep lumbering forward for quite awhile, even after it's dead.
Even during the Great Depression, BAU more or less continued. It's nowhere near that bad yet.
So true about the inertia aspect of the economy Leanan. That's why I jump in occasionally and harp about the slow creep of inflation into the economy as a result of the oil price spike. It was relatively easy to see a quick but relatively small drop in gasoline consumption. But that's not the demand destruction I keep looking over my shoulder for. Looking back at past cycles it takes a good 18+ months for inflation to work its way through the biz cycle. And, as you say, inertia also causes a very slow rebound when it's time to cycle back the other direction. I still throw out the wild guess that the biz economy is just adjusting to the effects of $60 to $80 oil and that we need another 6 to 12 months to see the full effect.
Perhaps the status of the different state governments can be used as a surrogate for the national economy. Some similarities but a lot of differences too. Perhaps states that aren’t allowed to run deficits would be the best comparison. Some of the problems in Cal seem to be related to running deficits for years.
There was a discussion of hybrid and electric cars on the Diane Rehm show on Thursday:
Windows Media Player
Real Audio
They all assume that everyone will continue to use cars in much the same way we to today and they ohh and ahh about the Tesla and how much fun that is to drive. I guess one thing I am noticing (perhaps because I am looking for it more these days) is that for a lot of people cars are more than just transportation - there is this adolescent fascination with power and acceleration, and "coolness". It seems to be fairly universal in humans...
The term "non-essential employees" always gets a giggle. Why does government seem to have the market cornered in this position? Slackers are right up there.
Then we have former CA governor "Moonbeam" proclaiming it a "model of energy-efficiency". Huh? Where? I must have missed the non-smog shrouded areas the last time I was thru. I did catch much of the jammed, sprawling, highway system (always just a quake away from being rebuilt) and a few of the public transport projects. I see CARB mandating emissions(isnt this the realm of the FEDERALs?) regulations for basically the whole continent. Whether or not clean, quality fuel is available, dosent seem to matter.
With declining tax revenues, escalating fuel, wage and benefit costs, you can be sure many municipal, county, even state governments may be faced with the B word. And there is only so much meat you can shave from a "golden-goose" before it stops laying eggs. My mayor and governor declare a "crisis", raise taxes and sell the infrastructure.
Today in beautiful, sunny Chicago, Illinois the annual Air Show, with historic and futuristic war noise-making, fuel-sucking aeroplanes were at it again. Lots of folks on bikes. But a ton of beeping, pedal-to-the-metal CrownVic cabbies too. I felt so...patriotic?
Then we have former CA governor "Moonbeam" proclaiming it a "model of energy-efficiency". Huh? Where?
Californians use less electricity per capita than any other state in the union. This link shows how California's use of electricity per capita has remained flat since the 1973 oil embargo while the national average has nearly doubled in the same time period.
Of course Californians love their automobiles (the same as most Americans I suspect) but they also pay high fuel taxes and face stringent pollution standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Brown
I won't argue his point about energy efficiency: lots of different ways to measure such a concept. But last time I saw the numbers: if California were a seperate country they would the the 4th largest consumer of petroleum products in the world. They may well be very efficient at it but you can't get away from that huge consumption level compared to just about everyone else in the world.
Personally, I've always like the way Jerry stirred things up. But, then again, I don't live in Cal.
Sea Ice News and Images
I have found a site I like better for daily images. They are daily and there is a up-to-the-current-date time laps function. The images are more realistic and more accurate, also.
Enjoy!
Images
News from Aug 11, NSIDC
Cheers