Thanks for picking up this speech. Unfortunately it seems to have been completely missed by the mainstream media.

It is interesting that some of the press reports mention eight 1.2 GW reactors. This is about the rated power claimed for the Westinghouse AP1000, and less than the other two designs still in the running. Westinghouse claim a build time of 36 months, although this seems very ambitious as it is still only a design.

I wonder where this leaves EDF and their plans for British Energy and the EPR?

My main criticism of the content here is inclusion of carbon capture and storage that will likely be obsolete given the massive CO2 reductions delivered by the non-combustion of non-existent fossil fuels implicit in this strategy.

Forgive me for perhaps stating the obvious, but I suspect that peak oil will not mean an end to oil consumption. Assuming that we have arrived at the peak, then we still have 50% or so of the oil left to burn. Comparing the highly favorable EORI (energy return on investments) for crude to the EORI of the alternatives, I believe that the oil will indeed be burned.

Fortunately, developing the alternatives sooner rather than later could well mean that the price-point at which the two are equal may be more affordable. Moreover, this could also extend the period of decline.

Given that burning the first 50% has caused a significant perturbation to the global ecosystem, then there may very well remain a need to mitigate the consequences of burning the last 50%.

Anyone have any details on or referrals to;

The G8 nations this week committed to implementing the IEA's 25 recommendations on energy efficiency.

From the speech (my emphasize);

The years of cheap energy and careless pollution are behind us. We need a new strategy. Past total dependence on oil must give way to a clean energy future.

This seems to me like an invitation to start drawing a new roadmap for future energy consumption.

Developing carbon capture and storage could wind up being a good way to get more oil out of the North Sea so I suspect his motivation isn't entirely related to the issue of global warming. The key thing to watch now is whether this broadly sensible set of policies becomes part of a wider cross-party consensus at Westminster. Unfortunately politicians are prone to populism when there are general elections to be won and nuclear power and fuel taxes will be highly tempting avenues for that.

Still wants to have the cake and eat it.

"First, since 70 per cent of future oil demand is from transport, we need a step change in the fuel efficiency of vehicles. So Europe must push ahead with mandatory fuel emission standards for new cars. But to drive innovation in the car industry we need not just a target for 2012, but a target for 2020 to match those in the rest of the energy package. " Blah, blah, blah ...

Lessee: making the cars, making the dealer/shop/factory buildings, the roads, the places to go with the cars the replacement parts the power infrastructure; all the things the cars need and love. don't forget the maniac drivers and the thousands of deaths and injuries.

With pols, it's always more, always, 'we can consume our way out of this problem.' The obsolete mindset.

When is a politician gonna stand up and say 'Less!'?

The first step toward energy indepandence is to get rid of the cars. All of them. Then, the energy problems can be solved in a leisurely manner.

You guys seem to have a lot more faith in politicians than I do. This is the guy who just last week said he would give military aid to Nigeria to help fight the rebels. Did we not learn any lessons from our current oil war?
Where was he talking, was anyone listening? – The Union for the Mediterranean . What is that? Just Sarkozy doing a Blair and trying to make a name for himself - using EU money of course.

At this summit the 27 nations of the European Union and our Mediterranean neighbours pledge ourselves to take action to promote our mutual prosperity, security, liberty and democracy.

Some real bastions of democracy amongst this lot: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordon, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestinian territories, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey

Following the meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia last month we will take these initiatives forward at the meeting in London in December, endorsed this week by the G8.

This is urgent so let’s wait six months.

Over the last forty years the energy intensity of the British economy - the amount of energy we use per unit of national income - has been halved. But as our economy continues to grow we must reduce that still further.

Easy solution, destroy the rest of British industry and make us completely reliant on finance and tourism!

This could reduce road fuel consumption in Britain by an average of 2 billion litres of road fuel a year and save the typical British motorist around £500 pounds a year in running costs.

Wow, a whole 1.8 gallons / week

And I want to see those cars manufactured in Britain. So I will be meeting with leaders from the British motor industry next week to discuss their plans for hybrid, electric and other low carbon car technologies.

British motor industry, what is that? He is taking the piss.

We need agreement on lower levels of VAT for energy saving goods, as proposed by Britain.

Says it all, we don’t even control that aspect of our fiscal policy.

In Britain we will also introduce new measures to encourage the installation of household insulation and energy efficiency appliances, which can together save a typical British family up to 20 per cent - £170 pounds a year - off their energy bills.

That gives typical bill of GBP 850/year. You can tell he does not pay his own bills. Using The Energy Shop’s typical medium usage average dual fuel bill comes between GBP 900 to GBP 1000. And BG are putting theirs up again.

Britain is now moving quickly to replace its ageing fleet of nuclear power stations.

10 GW capacity to be replaced, so that is the 8 new ones spoken for. What about replacement for 8 GW of coal and 7 GW increase in consumption – all from renewables?

So I am delighted that that the EU is committing at this summit to work with its neighbours - including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and the League of Arab States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League#List_of_member_states_by_GDP
- to explore the development of a new 'Mediterranean Solar Plan' for the development and deployment of this vital technology from the Sahara northwards.

Easy one that, just involves giving shed loads of our money to already oil and gas rich Arab governments!

For me it is just cynical ‘tell them what they want to hear’, 'make them feel good' rhetoric

as our economy continues to grow

Wind back the clock to April:

Every day that I wake up is about keeping this economy moving forward, keeping stability in the economy and keeping growth…we will do everything in our power to keep the economy moving forward

Same old emperor, same new clothes.

My view is this is pablum for the masses; just more of the fraud that political solutions fundamentally are.

I am sure they will pass out taxpayer money to get businesses to invest in what no sane person might invest in. Sound projects do not need subsidies and incentives from government; all they need is for government to get out of the way with their plans and regulations.

Gordon Brown is just part of the ruling class. His great claim to fame as head of the UK's central bank was to dispose of a significant portion of their gold in order to discourage people from a flight from bank money into real money. And he sold right near the bottom of a 20 year long decline, a great example of the Midas touch in reverse. So this is the brilliant mind behind the collectivist solution; a central plan no doubt that will turn out just as effective as the many Soviet 5 year plans which went nowhere. Beware of the benevolence of government.

I see T. Boone Pickens here in the US is staying true to his colors also as a huckster. He wants to invest a huge sum in wind farms up and down the Midwest wind corridor, perhaps a good idea, until you see that he wants the government to give him $1 trillion US dollars in subsidies. He is even going so far as to spend around $50 million in advance to condition the public to his "plan" so that they will tell their federal representatives to fork up the money. If his plan is so viable, and he is going to make so much money implementing it, then why is he asking for the taxpayers to pay him to make his profits?

I do not know which of all these proposals are viable and which are boondoggles like the Ethanol scam promoted by G. W. Bush, and I doubt that Gordon Brown or T. Boone Pickens does either. If either wanted to risk his own money or convince investors and lenders to join in, then I wish them well. But thank you, I would like to keep my own funds to proceed with my individual plans, and I resent those who would plunder me through the force of government to finance their schemes.

This is an interesting speech, coming from a man that I suspect is feeling the floor failing under his feet. It is just a matter of time before a serious crisis hits the UK, a state that made the brilliant move of planning the decommissioning of its Nuclear park to the same period in time when it's internal production of oil and gas would peak.

Sorry Mr. Brown, too late, you can't avoid that crisis any more.

There are some interesting things there of course. You understand the problem, you understand some of the strategies to deal with it (I especially welcome the reference to Severn). But this is a breathless amalgamation of loosely dimensioned policy tactics currently at different stages of development that will have a slow impact over an extended period of time.

And unfortunately you still manage to embroil all this with emission targets. I think that anyone trying to promote energy efficiency by measuring it in grammes per kilometre and at the same promoting CCS can't possibly be serious. You have to make a decision, either we a face fossil fuel shortage or a glut – we can't have both at the same time.

Apart from the delusional references to CCS, I endorse every strategy put forward. But let me ask you a few things: how will the energy generated in North Africa reach Europe? I hope you're not thinking of pipe dreams like H2. The renewable strategy: highly commendable, but where and how will that energy be stored to allow for load balancing? And what about those electric vehicles? The batteries they'll use will be made of what? And how much will they cost?

What really disappoints me is the feeling that you try to transmit that you've got the situation under control, when there are so many loose ends.

I hope that the UK can make it through these turbulent times, with the help of the other states maintaining an acceptable energy delivery system. The UK will eventually learn how to deal with the crisis and truly emerge into a post-oil future. You're getting there, but don't think it'll be either easy or swift.

Great stuff Euan. It is an encouraging and not insubstantial step.

But we have seen similar grand speeches around the world, only for Brown, Rudd, Bush et al to sign up to more of the 'same old' the very next day. Brown's words are stronger and as you say 'more connected' than most so we can only hope he has truly processed the meaning of his words.

In particular, this kind of sentence worries me:

I will be meeting with leaders from the British motor industry next week to discuss their plans for hybrid, electric and other low carbon car technologies.

What that means is he will tour the big motor companies, they will tell him lots of nice stories about the concept cars they have and all their long-term plans, but nothing much will change in the short-term. He needs to be going to them and providing strong incentives (carrots) for real changes in what they produce and big sticks if they don't come to the party. What we've seen from these kind of political tours is 'all bark and no bite'. I hope Brown is planning something different.

Phil

It seems people are being a little too cynical about this speech IMO. It is the most direct and rational assessment of the PO situation I've seen from any political leader by far. The main theme is nuclear, wind, and electric cars - a very reasonable solution for Britain IMO. Sure he didn't come out with a direct discussion like you'll get from an online PO forum, and certainly people can take issue with various points, but what do you expect? Politicians don't have the luxury of speaking their mind.

While this speech was obviously not meant to be a detailed peak oil strategy, I note that there was no mention at all of:

• the role of public transport, even though rail, light rail and trolleybuses are already suited to using power from renewable sources (and have been for decades). The heavens forbid that we should tell people to drive less!
• denser, mixed-use urban development to reduce travel distances, particularly making walking and cycling more of an option.
• the Government's own recent proposals to make new homes zero-carbon by 2016. Maybe GB now realises that waiting nine years (i.e. until 2006, after coming to power in 1997) to even announce proposals to tackle this major issue looks more like heel-dragging than leading. The building industry is notoriously resistant to change - why wasn't this a first-year priority in 1997?
• food security in a peak-oil world, where the fuel that makes intensive agriculture and global transport will no longer be affordable. Why aren't we aiming to restore basic food self-sufficiency?
• the fact that if we continue on our current path of growth, even assuming that all non-renewable generation and all oil use could be phased out in five years flat, we will sooner or later simply hit another natural limit, be it availability of agricultural land, mineral resource depletion or intact rainforest.

Sorry, but nuLabor is the bunch that is still pursuing the Tories' road-building programme, massively expanding our airports and trying to build a new bunch of coal-fired power stations (maybe they'll have CCS in several years' time, and maybe not), but couldn't cope with meeting targets to increase cycling, abandoned promises to reduce road traffic, or tried to retrospectively increase the UK's CO2 emissions quota in the EU ETS to such an extent that we would have struggled not to achieve it. It's ironic that he's calling on the EU to lead more on energy security and renewables. On so many energy and environment issues it is only EU Directives that have spurred his government into action.

If he doesn't "get" climate change, which is hardly controversial any more, when will he "get" peak oil? I fear for my country.

I have always felt Blair sold the Brits to Bush. He was so far up Bush's anus he could not see the horizon.

I do not see brown backing away from a losing game. The UK will have the same pain the US will have.

Brown has gushed a bunch of political platitudes. Motherhood and Apple Pie. Of course we must all do what he suggests.

Peak oil was 2005, What bills are before Parliament to make reality happen. Where is the, "We shall fight them on the beaches, we shall fight -----" Britain needs to regain its backbone and start doing things the British way.

Graham

And I want to see those cars manufactured in Britain. So I will be meeting with leaders from the British motor industry next week to discuss their plans for hybrid, electric and other low carbon car technologies.

Sounds like Brown wants to support the growth of a UK motor industry again, or maybe its just giving Toyota a kickback to build a hybrid factory in the UK. It would be sensible to give government support to a company to mass produce EV, but I bet he doesn't do it.

Already initiatives are under way in several countries to accelerate the commercialisation of electric vehicles by supporting the required charging infrastructure and automotive technologies.

Recharging stations here we come.

And particularly in the Mediterranean region, concentrated solar power offers the prospect of an abundant low carbon energy source. Indeed, just as Britain's North Sea could be the Gulf of the future for offshore wind, so those sunnier countries represented here could become a vital source of future global energy by harnessing the power of the sun.

Get off your fat backsides Italy, Spain and Greece.

EU's aspiration to move towards deployment of CCS by 2020

Its not happening.

So I call on the European Investment Bank to use its 3 billion euro sustainable energy fund to support a clear strategy for the reduction in global dependence on oil and traditional fossil fuels and for the development and deployment of new low carbon energy technologies. And we need to see a similar refocusing of EIB spend within the EU.

Stop wasting the cash and send it this way. We're not going to settle for propping up french farmers or eastern european oligarchs anymore.

Translated from Spinglish, the doublethink self cancels.

At this tax-payer funded jolly, the European Union and our tax suckling neighbours pledge to take action to promote our own mutual prosperity, at the same time reducing your security, liberty and democracy.

You must now leave behind your old wasteful, oil dependent ways, we will enforce the new clean and sustainable energy taxation of tomorrow. The increases in oil and food prices you have seen over recent months are, apparently, causing hardship to families. They threaten my economic stability and so the tractor production statistics are not sustainable.

Your years of cheap energy and careless pollution are behind you. We need a new stealth tax strategy. Past dependence on oil revenue must give way to a clean green energy tax revenue.

I have emailed some oil producers asking for more market obfuscation to blind-side consumers, and for creative measures to increase investment tax, oil production tax and refining tax. Following the coffee and cigars, burp!, in the seraglio, the Saudis will announce a production increase but then quietly reduce it.

But taxing the oil market more can be only the first half of our stealth plan.

The second half must be to set you on a new energy path - mumble mumble peak-oil! mumble sniff .....

And the remaining half is moving you towards this green tax economy which helps me meet my feather bedding goals.

etc

Gordyz notez to fixz teh futurz

* leccy carz

* insulat hooz

* turn stuff off

* nucleer powr

* renublez

* ccz

..borrow from teh EIB

That's us freezing and hungry in the dark then.

This is simply not good enough. Gordon Brown was chancellor when the North Sea
peaked, and he was still chancellor (in charge of the countries money) when
in 2004 we (UK) became a net importer of fossil fuels again.
The last budget (yearly explanation of the tax burden combined with policy
logic) made no mention of any ring fenced taxation to tackle the issues:

Selected quotes from the budget speech delivered in 12 March 2008
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/budget/budget_08/bud_bud08_speech.cfm

Mr Deputy Speaker, the core purpose of this Budget is stability - now and in the future.
And its core values are fairness and opportunity, founded on stability and strength.

Crude Oil prices (WTI futures) hit $111 per barrel on March 13.

More from the budget speech:

And with the action taken last year to curb inflation, Britain is better placed than other economies to withstand the slowdown in the global economy.

So here we are 4 months later:

Inflation rate soars and economists fear 6% on the way

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/15/inflation

More from the budget speech:

Because of the changes made by this Government to entrench stability and increase the flexibility and resilience of our economy, I am able to report that the British economy will continue to grow through this year and beyond.

Fast forward four months:
http://www.hifx.co.uk/marketwatch/market_briefing/latest_market_briefing...

Britain’s dominant services sector continued to buckle under pressure from rapidly rising costs and weakening demand in June, with activity declining at its sharpest rate since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Reflective of surging oil prices, inflationary pressures intensified at a record pace, contributing to net job cuts as companies lost confidence in the economic outlook. The UK manufacturing sector faired little better, contracting at its fastest rate since December 2001 as output and new orders fell at their fastest rate in a decade. Meanwhile, the Pound extended losses as tumbling UK housing shares and a profit warning from Marks & Spencer, the bellwether UK retailer cast further doubt over Britain’s already slowing economy.

I remain an optimist - however I think the opportunity to be fiscally
visionary was 10 years ago - when the Labour party finally secured the
size of mandate needed to push through real change.
Now we get the speech .. but Labour are going to lose the next election
so sadly Brown sounds like Bush .. a man without a mandate.

I work in education and whilst I admit that there has been an academic inflation in the grades awarded to our students I still don't see this
as a 7/10 effort. Sorry Euan .. I'm going to apply the external assessor
approach to this and downgrade him to 2.5/10 - I can see that the student
has laid out an action plan, however i can find no evidence of the work being done, nor do I see a portfolio that suggests the student has both
understood the subject matter and made a practical start on the
required output.

Maybe Mrs Sarkozy's smile will get us all safely through this ?

I've got you guys should take a look at. The Energy Crisis is coming, thats for sure, and the government is all ready to capitalize in the coming economic depression to get even more power.

Please do check out

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiFlouOozpk
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-JF6wZC6v0

This is really important. Look at this information. Maybe you all can connect the dots, with what can happen...

I think with this speech Gordon Brown's makes a logical step in the right direction - but we shouldn't overestimate it. Words are much easier said than deeds done, and the British government has a good tradition of excellent speeches and papers concerning climate protection and energy topics, whereas the real performance so far is rather poor. For example despite so many announcements and programs renewables have barely advanced and despite much talk about "energy poverty" the thermal quality of British buildings is still among the poorest in Europe. Let's see if this time the government really means what it says.

This link was just posted in the Drumbeat. It's from the "All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas". Also you can sign the online petition at http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Oil-Depletion/

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Undertake a reassessment of UK Energy Supplies, in particular evaluate the risk of an imminent peak or plateau in global oil production

'The Impact of Peak Oil on International Development' (PDF)

Many cities, and some nations, realise that global Peak Oil is not only inevitable, but imminent. This paper argues that contingency planning now – and subsequent mobilisation of training and adaptation of programme design – must be seen as a high priority.

This paper looks initially at Peak Oil and the likely political and economic impacts. Next it presents a series of proposals for practical strategies to build resilience in a time of sharply rising energy prices. Viable alternatives are offered in food production, human settlement design and local energy security.

Global oil production is reaching its peak, critical decisions are needed to prepare communities everywhere for the dramatic and irreversible changes ahead. Carrying on with ‘business as usual’ is no longer an option.

Current Membership
John Hemming MP (Liberal Democrat) (Chairman)
Colin Challen MP (Labour) (Vice Chair)
Lord Teverson (Liberal Democrat) (Vice Chair)
Mark Williams MP (Liberal Democrat) (Treasurer)
Austin Mitchell MP (Labour) (Secretary)
Frank Cook MP (Labour)
Michael Meacher MP (Labour)
Dr Rudi Vis MP (Labour)
Dr Alan Whitehead MP (Labour)
Kelvin Hopkins MP (Labour)
Celia Barlow MP (Labour)
David Chaytor MP (Labour)
Dr Ian Gibson MP (Labour)
Anne Milton MP (Conservative)
Lord Taylor of Holbeach (Conservative)
James Brokenshire MP (Conservative)
Bill Wiggin MP (Conservative)
David Amess MP (Conservative)
Ian Taylor MP (Conservative)
Lord Armstrong of Ilminster (CB)

Glad you're not my teacher.

July 13th - I set out action plan for next five academic years.

July 15th - you give me 2.5/10 for not starting work on July 14.

The comment would read something like this:
I'm afraid at this late stage I have little choice but to fail you.
The central issue being that the assignment brief was laid out clearly in 1999.
Whilst your draft action plan of 2008 begins to address some of the central
issues, leaving yourself less than two years to deliver concrete results that
would possibly have secured you a deadline extension seems almost reckless on
your part.
Whilst your enthusiasm for prudent decision making is to be applauded, the
examiners (the voting public) concur with the original mark of 2.5 given by
this Morri Poll in June 2008:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/pdfs/june%202008%20pm%20tables.pdf

Is this the same Gordon Brown who sold 395 tons of gold at an average price of US $275.6?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/03/gold_and_go...

I think you're being much to generous with your marking. Judge a man by his actions, not by his words.

We must now leave behind the old wasteful, oil dependent ways of yesterday and embrace the new cleaner and sustainable energy future of tomorrow.

In that case, Mr. Brown, why did your government announce a few weeks ago that the M25 motorway is to be widened at a cost of a mere £5,000 million? Any why is your government also actively supporting a huge increase in air travel and a third runway (a separate airport really) at Heathrow? For every non-British person that flies into the UK, two British people fly out. The UK balance of payments deficit in air travel is enormous, never mind the environmental impact.

To achieve such a target we will need to see the mass production of electric vehicles - conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and fully electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are now available on our roads - but they are specialist cars and vans available only in small numbers. I want to see the mass production of hybrid and electric drive technology in ordinary family models.

Hooray! Happy motoring can continue, thanks to electric cars and all your shiny new, safe, cheap, green nuclear power stations. Why did neither you nor Bliar support Prescott's integrated transport plans? What happened to the light rail schemes that should have been built by now? What have been you doing for the last 11 years?

Things which Labour criticised in opposition, like the PPP projects and other private finance scams that will end up costing far more than direct government spending, have been greatly expanded. Why didn't you reverse the idiotic railway privatization? After all, you were the de facto UK prime minister when Bliar was playing at international statesman.

The fact is that New Labour = Old Tories, 1980s style, and then some. If I have learned one thing since 1997, it is that things can always get worse. Gordon Brown has been a louder cheerleader for "economic growth" at any cost than anyone else, the Chinese Communist Party included. When it comes to the environment and the real world, I don't believe a word he says.

Hello EuroTODers,

Just googling along tonight and came across some rather startling statistics.

I have never been across the pond, but does Ireland & UK really use this much I-NPK? Ireland #1, UK #7 in world ranking! Does the rain washing most of this fertilizer out to sea explain this high usage?

If true, keeping the lights on and feeding yourselves maybe very difficult if prices keep rising fast for I-NPK as we go postPeak [Suggest O-NPK recycling pronto]:

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/agr_fer_use-agriculture-fertilizer-use
--------------------------
Ireland #1 594.5 kg/ha

United Kingdom #7 285.8 kg/ha
------------------------------
No wonder your forefathers craved guano, Atacama Desert nitrates, and 'immigrants' dead-headed home in earlier times.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Here is an amazing treasure trove of information for sustainable living.

http://journeytoforever.org

Translation: "Give me more power to fight the Supreme Threat of Scarcity. After you have given me all the powers that I require, I will proceed with the orderly euthanization of 80% of the population."

Every speech has its context. Brown's speech was intended for two sets of ears : those at home [his party, the electorate] and those present [the significant Med basin players].
It's a shame that no MSM picked up on it: it was the first time I can recall a major politician doing joined-up-thinking. If he had posted it here under a different name we would probably have thumbed him up a good few points.
But he was actually speaking to an edgy group, newly-convened under Sarkozy ['the mountebank' - wish I could source that quote!] and his Club Med idea. And while I haven't the time/energy/expertise to go through his words point by point, I do feel that E.Mearns was right to emphasise this phrase: 'the post-oil energy economies of the future.'
I see this as a clear if veiled reminder to those on the Saharan Rim that while they may be sitting round the table with a handfull of Oil-cards - there might just come a day when Oil is not so mighty, and that those countries [and here he boasts that the UK is capable of transforming itself] who do manage to wean themselves off oil to a greater or lesser extent, will no longer be in thrall to oil-sellers.
It's a warning and an encouragement. The hand the oil-sellers hold at present may seem strong - but in a 'differently-energized' society they might be left behind.
Lest it be thought that I'm pro-anything, please note that I have just bought a scythe, and am building an earth-closet.
And yes - I have hugged my bag of fertilizer today.
And yes - some humans are smarter than yeast: they are called women. At the very least they represent one of the most under-utilised, under-represented, under-paid, and un-tried resources the planet posesses.

www.universalmining.com domain name is for sale at SEDO.com