DrumBeat: May 30, 2008
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 30, 2008 - 9:46am
Amid a sell-off, oil market may have to stop believing its PR
Did record oil prices just get talked to death -- or at least into a short-term coma?
Crude oil futures slumped 3.4% today, the biggest decline in two months, after weeks of headlines suggesting that energy prices were in an unstoppable upward spiral.
"We do know that oil has been the most talked about thing recently, and that things often top or bottom when their moves have attracted a lot of attention," said Brent Luce, a portfolio manager at investment firm CapitalWorks in Cleveland.
Pulse racing ahead with Chinese energy projects
PULSE Energy has fewer than 10 full-time staff but that hasn't stopped it securing a contract for one of the biggest renewable energy projects in the world. . . . .
About 90 per cent of Pulse's activity is in China where, among about $3 billion of contracts, it is working on a 1000 megawatt wind farm in inner Mongolia.
SANTOS has confirmed that coal seam gas processing in Queensland will soon be a multibillion-dollar industry by selling oil and gas giant Petronas a 40 per cent stake in its CSG operations and planned Gladstone plant.
The $US2.5 billion ($A2.6 billion) deal, with Malaysian government-owned Petronas – the world's third-largest LNG producer – includes an upfront payment of $US2 billion.
New Zealand services under scrutiny in Qantas operations review
Transtasman and New Zealand domestic services are part of a Qantas review of operations which has already seen sweeping cuts to help offset the extra $2 billion in fuel costs it faces this year.
Indonesia fuel price hike necessary to curb poverty: minister
JAKARTA (AFP) -- The Indonesian government's decision to hike the price of fuel by around 30 percent last week was necessary to tackle poverty and inflation, a minister said Thursday.
Information minister Mohammad Nuh defended the price rise amid nearly daily protests across the country and accusations that a cash transfer scheme aimed at softening the impact of the rise was not going to those in need.
US-made oil disaster has mileage
The short answer is that the US Federal Reserve was in large part responsible for the oil price explosion and its volatility, while two successive US administrations have created the oil supply shortfall, again adversely affecting oil prices.
CNOOC's focus not international
CNOOC Ltd, China's biggest offshore oil producer, said overseas acquisitions won't be the main driver of future growth.
The company will rely on existing businesses as its growth engine while overseas asset purchases and takeovers are just one aspect of the overall strategy, Chairman Fu Chengyu said after the annual general meeting in Hong Kong yesterday.
New Lukoil, Gazprom Field Holds 100M Tons of Oil
The Caspian oil and gas field discovered jointly by Russia's OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) and OAO Lukoil (LKOH.RS) could hold more than 100 million metric tons, or around 730 million barrels, of oil, a person familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
Earlier the same day, the two companies said they had "discovered a large oil and gas condensate field" in the Caspian Sea's central structure. The companies said they have started a feasibility study of the field, which is located 150 kilometers from Makhach-Kala on the border between Russia and Kazakhstan.
No rise in electricity exports
Cape Town - Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin has denied that South Africa increased its exports of electricity in the first three months of this year, saying that in fact exports fell by 8%.
At the same time, he said, imports also fell.
Eskom CEO: Crisis to last years
Johannesburg - The power shortage that has slowed South Africa's growth and frightened investors will go on for years, the head of Eskom warned on Thursday.
Eskom, which produces about 95% of South Africa's electricity, has rationed power through load-shedding since January, when the national grid virtually collapsed and millions were plunged into darkness.
Blackouts: Prepare for the worst
Johannesburg - South African power utility Eskom on Thursday warned that it could take about two weeks to bring South Africa's power system back up if it were to collapse. . . . .
"I don't want to be alarmist," said Maroga, "but the consequence of a nationwide blackout is not fully understood."
AZERBAIJAN SEES POSITIVE SIGNS FOR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP WITH TURKMENISTAN
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has recently stepped up his ongoing campaign to promote Azerbaijan as the key to Europe’s energy security at a recent energy summit in Kyiv. But this is a role in which Baku needs a supporting actor. Azerbaijani experts believe that the Aliyev administration now has agreements with Turkmenistan to play that part. . . . .
If that trend continues, Shaban believes, an agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on delineation of their territorial lines could be forthcoming by the time of the summit of Caspian Sea littoral states (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) in Baku this September.
Petrobangla seems unable to supply gas to new PDB power projects
DHAKA: Petrobangla wants to sit with the Power Development Board (PDB) to review the gas-based power projects as it may fail to supply gas to the new PDB projects as per commitment. "After examining all possible ways to increase gas output from the existing fields', we realise that we need to hold a meeting with the PDB to apprise it of the gas production scenario as we committed to supply gas to their new projects. But unfortunately we may not keep our promise", a top official of Petrobangla told The Independent yesterday.
First licence for LPG auto-gas station issue
KARACHI: A Lahore-based LPG marketing company on Thursday received a licence for setting up an auto-gas station, the first to regularise the sale of this fuel, which is usually marketed by illegal decanters.
Subsidy on kerosene being pocketed by industrialists
SLAMABAD: Millions of rupees in government subsidy on kerosene for providing the poor with the fuel are actually pocketed either by paint manufacturers or adulterators.
Diesel shortage hits truckers again
Doha • Shortage of diesel has hit the local market again after almost a year of the first diesel crisis, says an Arabic daily. Truck drivers and salesmen at petrol stations across the country say there is a severe shortage of the fuel.
The crisis has caused serpentine queues of trucks to be formed in front of several filling stations. Some heavy vehicles are causing traffic jams in Doha and its suburbs as they roam around fuel stations in search of a few gallons of diesel.
Australia looks for power from hot rocks
Brisbane • A small bleak township in Australia’s Outback is sitting on a source of energy that could power the entire nation for thousands of years. Deep beneath the tiny community of Innamincka lie the earth’s hottest rocks and the prospect of endless supplies of geothermal energy is exciting investors as far afield as the UK.
The township in South Australia, not far from the fateful riverbank where the explorers Burke and Wills died of hunger and exposure in 1861, has attracted Geodynamics, one of Australia’s larger renewable energy producers, keen to exploit the hot rocks 4km below the surface.
Naryshkin Says Oil Could Slow Growth
Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Naryshkin warned on Thursday against economic complacency but said that if sensible policies were continued then Russia could be one of the world's top five economies by 2020. Naryshkin, who was appointed President Dmitry Medvedev's chief of staff earlier this month, told the ruling United Russia party that economic stability was not guaranteed forever. . . . .
Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that Russia's economy will overtake Britain, France and Germany over the next few decades to become the biggest economy in Europe. Naryshkin said Russian per capita GDP would reach 70 percent of the equivalent level in the United States by 2030. At present, Russian per capita GDP is just 16 percent of the U.S. level.
Regulators Step Up Probes Of Trading in Oil Market
The CFTC's announcement about its oil investigation suggested a single, broad probe that began in December 2007. But people familiar with its enforcement priorities say the agency is pursuing multiple oil investigations, and that many of them relate to one another. CFTC enforcement chief Gregory Mocek said the agency has about 60 manipulation investigations open in various commodity markets.
Platts.Com News Feature: North American Shale Gas
Although much of the industry's attention to future domestic supply has focused on coalbed methane and the deepwater Gulf, shale is making a huge comeback - as evidenced by the surge in activity in Texas' Barnett Shale, which has propelled Devon Energy to the Lone Star State's largest gas producer. And shale formations in other parts of the country, from Wyoming to Arkansas to Appalachia, are attracting millions of dollars of new investment.
Estimates of how much gas is sandwiched between shallow layers of prehistoric mud now as hard as a chalkboard change constantly as more exploration-and-production companies plunk their bets on those quirky, unconventional plays - and have more success coaxing commercial quantities of gas out of them.
Ukrainian Leaders Found Themselves on the Opposite Sides of the Pipeline
According to the information of Kommersant, Ukraine’s President Victor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko have delivered two competing energy plans for the country. Friday, speaking at the Energy Summit in Kiev, Victor Yushchenko suggested creating a gas transporting OPEC, which will transport energy resources omitting Russia. In her turn, Yuliya Tymoshenko intends to settle the gas dispute with Russia promising Russia to prolong the treaty on its Black Sea Fleet deployment and suspend Ukraine’s NATO plans.
Tax windfall enough to cover fuel duty freeze, says IFS
Windfall gains made by the Government from taxes on North Sea oil would more than pay for a postponement of the 2p rise in fuel duty scheduled for this October.
Oil prices to be probed by US regulator CFTC
America's leading commodities regulator has launched an unprecedented investigation into possible market manipulation in the US crude oil market amid record prices which continue to cripple various parts of the global economy.
Burning food: why oil is the real villain in the food crisis
The rising cost of foods is widely being blamed on the use of grains for biofuels, and the case for the prosecution is simply made. About 100m tonnes of maize from this year's US crop will be diverted into ethanol refineries, an increase of a third on 2007's figure. This means one in 20 of all cereal grains produced in the world this year will end up in the petrol tank of US cars, the country that is most aggressively increasing the use of food for fuel.
UK power giant says energy industry on the brink of radical change
Britain's second biggest gas and electricity supplier, Scottish and Southern Energy, warned today the industry stood on the brink of radical change.
Centralised fossil fuel fired generation would have to give way to a combination of energy efficiency and diversity of generation.
"The days of meeting an unchecked demand for energy through monolithic carbon intensive power stations are coming to an end. Increasingly the emphasis will be on energy efficiency, renewables, cleaned up fossil fuel plant and micro generation," the company said in a statement accompanying its full-year results.
Fuel prices spark holiday crunch as air surcharges soar
Families are facing holiday misery this summer after big airlines sharply increased fuel surcharges on their flights, bringing the era of cheap air travel to an end.
Virgin Atlantic is imposing new charges today and, from Tuesday, British Airways long-haul passengers will have to pay £218 on top of the ticket price simply to cover the cost of fuel.
Darkness at noon as National Grid and E.ON dispute price
A rescue plan to avert blackouts that hit 500,000 homes this week was undermined by demands of E.ON, the German energy group, that National Grid pay double the usual price for an emergency electricity boost, The Times has learnt.
New surges in energy bills imminent, says power boss
The chief executive of one of Britain’s largest power companies issued a warning yesterday that further energy price rises were imminent.
AIan Marchant, the chief executive of Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE), which supplies power to 8.45 million UK customers, said that an unprecedented rise in oil prices in recent months meant that the outlook for consumers was not good.
Mounting costs slow the push for clean coal
WASHINGTON: For years, scientists have had a straightforward idea for taming global warming. They want to take the carbon dioxide that spews from coal-burning power plants and pump it back into the ground.
President George W. Bush is for it, and indeed has spent years talking up the virtues of "clean coal." All three candidates to succeed him favor the approach. So do many other members of Congress. Coal companies are for it. Many environmentalists favor it. Utility executives are practically begging for the technology. But it has become clear in recent months that the nation's effort to develop the technique is lagging badly.
Social pain of rising fuel costs spreads in Europe
PARIS: When it comes to transportation, Marie Schneberger has always tried to be thrifty. As an airline employee earning a middle-income paycheck, the price of gasoline in France, like elsewhere in Europe, has made it prohibitively expensive for her to ever own anything bigger than a Fiat Panda.
But now that gasoline prices have surged past €1.40 a liter, or the equivalent of $8.21 a gallon, on much of the Continent, she has cut back even more. Recently, Schneberger started taking the Métro to work. Now, she shares her subcompact car with two other women to split fuel costs.
Patrick signs bill to manage ocean resources
Governor Deval Patrick yesterday signed the nation's first comprehensive ocean planning law to guide where pipelines should be laid, areas should be protected, and energy projects built. . . .
The plan will not affect the Nantucket wind farm, nor the new liquefied natural gas port off Gloucester, both of which are in federal waters.
As Oil Prices Soar, Restaurant Grease Thefts Rise
The bandit pulled his truck to the back of a Burger King in Northern California one afternoon last month armed with a hose and a tank. After rummaging around assorted restaurant rubbish, he dunked a tube into a smelly storage bin and, the police said, vacuumed out about 300 gallons of grease.
How Abu Dhabi Differs From Exxon
Abu Dhabi, the largest of seven sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates, is swimming in oil revenue - and it's investing some of that money in solar power. That's more than can be said for Exxon Mobil Corp., which rebuffed a Rockefeller initiative at yesterday's annual meeting to nudge the company toward renewable energy. A shareholder resolution sponsored by the company's founding family was easily defeated.
Coal seam gas seen as Asia's next hot energy play
PERTH (Reuters) - Surging gas prices are increasingly drawing new investors to Asia's nascent coalbed methane (CBM) seams, an underutilized energy source that analysts say could meet a sizeable part of the region's gas needs in coming years.
Ken Deffeyes: Oil Production, Oil Price
In 2005, world oil production stopped growing and oil prices shot up uncontrollably. My graph of production versus price is now two weeks old and the price is already off the top of the paper. This morning, West Texas Intermediate is $130 per barrel. In Econ 101, they taught us that increasing prices would enlarge the supply. The economists may have envisioned a large inventory of oil wells, temporarily shut down because of low oil prices.
Under normal circumstances, the surge in ridership would be a boon to the agencies, which have long argued that public transit is one of the best ways to combat social ills such as traffic congestion and global warming.
But at the very moment they should be investing to expand their services, the same driver that is ballooning ridership is crippling transit budgets: steep fuel bills. As record numbers of people board buses and trains, higher costs are forcing public transit agencies to scale back on services, further straining capacity. Local transit agencies fret that the capacity problems may squander the opportunity to convert more Americans to public transportation.
Lehman Bros warns of oil dot.com
“Summer market tightness could, under these circumstances, continue to propel oil prices upward to untested levels. But when peak prices hit, we believe they are also likely to fall precipitously.
“That is the way cyclical turning points tend to occur-in the midst of a market trend, turning points can be sudden, unexpected, and severe. If history is a guide, the turning point will come, getting the timing right is the difficult part.”
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Create your own solar energy at home
I'm currently building my own solar system (not the planet type) thus far I have managed to build 6 70W panels at a cost of $170 each. Not to difficult and I'm saving a fortune. For commercial panels with the same output your looking at $800-$1000.
Would you email me at rogue@rogueriver.net? thanks.
Building panels? What are you doing? Soldering individual cells together? If this is the case, please post details on how you are managing to accomplish this, as $170 for 70w is cheap! I just purchased two 160w panels at $500 each, and thought I was getting a fair deal! :P
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
Best i've seen in UK is roughly £2.70 /W. I would only start buying at £1(2$) per Watt.
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/180-Watt-Mono-Crystalline-Solar-Panel-24-v_W0QQite...
Simply buy groups of individual cells on ebay and build the panel yourself, it's not rocket science. A simple panel, and charge controller/inverter design can be found here http://www.mdpub.com/SolarPanel/index.html but you may want to build yours to last. I believe most of the cells come from factory seconds or damaged panels. If you have the time it's well worth it. Enjoy.
Feel free to email me steven.j.moody[at]gmail.com if you need more info.
If you were to have the cells seperated enough, you could use fresnel lenses to increase the output per cell, although you would then need to add a heat-sink to the back of the cell to avoid frying it. An example of such a thing I found was at:
http://www.greenandgoldenergy.com.au/
You could also use mirrors to amplify the output as well, for less of an effect...
Indeed. I've also started scraping old rear projection tv's for their Fresnel lens. Great for cooking and potentially a valuable barter item in the next 15-30 years. Typically you can pick up a 50" lens for $10-$40.
Yeah, that's a good price/watt. ( $2.42 )
Would you mind tossing out a few more details? Where do you get the source materials, and what are you embedding them in? (Assuming Silicon PV here)
Hope you're venting your solder fumes!
Best,
Bob Fiske
You think so? I have been holding out for cheaper solar panels ever since the early days of the UK programme "Tomorrows World" touted a new generation of solar panels. 25 years on and we are still waiting. The most recent thin film shows promise but I will only be satisfied when I can walk out to a hardware store and buy a 100W panel for about £100!! ($200).
I share your hope Antidoomer, but unfortunately not your ill concieved optimism.
Marco.
One part of the problem is that when Carter created the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, it started out with a staff of 1200. In 1980 the staff was reduced by Reagan to 400 and not increased subsequently. Also, general funding for solar research wasn't a big priority. So progress has been much slower than it could have been because of these things, at least in the U.S. However, there are some very exciting achievements being made in solar right now, such as multijunction panels, etc. The only caveat is that I think these new cells will cost more not less.
I'm sorry Gwydion, this sounds too close to the "not enough investment in oil" excuse as to why oil production is not increasing.
In actual fact one of the biggest blocks on reducing the price of photovoltaics has been the cost of good qulity silicon and the energy it takes to process from start to finish. This is where thin film stands the greatest chance I think.
marco.
Sure there's going to be a limit to what can be done but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't be doing it. There are big differences to the oil though, on oil we're at the end of over 100 years of R&D on oil extraction. It's highly probable that there isn't too much more to learn or to try to get more oil out than what we're already doing.
We don't have nearly that knowledge for what is possible with solar power -- for example, I have ten year old textbooks that say the maximum possible efficiency of a silicon solar cell is going to be on the order of 20%. If you look at that link I put up they're aiming at 33% efficiency for the full cell and 20-25% for the thin films. Why the breakthrough? No one in the past had thought to include multijunctions that use the same photon to generate multiple electrons. This is kinda like the big, medium and little cylinders on the old ship engines to get the most mechanical work out of the steam.
It's not just silicon either, Michel Grätzel has his colloidal TiO2 cell that he covers with a ruthenium bispyridine dye that can absorb light from nearly the entire spectrum. The efficiency is not so good, but it's a lot cheaper than silicon. There's some other organic dyes that are being looked at as well.
I guess the point is that solar power is not going to be a panacea and we may never get to the point where you can go pick up a solar cell for 100 pounds. I think it's going to have to be one tool in the toolbox though to replace fossil fuels because we have no other choice, it's either do that or poison ourselves with coal or go back to the stone age as Deffeyes says.
*AND* it's just placing blame (just pile it on the republicans in general, why not ?).
Placing blame produces 0 barrels of oil. It only has the potential to produce barrels of blood.
Btw. for the immediate future I like the republican energy policy : more nuclear power for short term in combination pushing market to plug-in hybrids first, plug-in only in a few years.
For the long term using energy research, because, frankly, we have no good options now. Perhaps solar is a solution for florida (I think not), but it most defineately is not a solution for alaska. So we'll need something else too. Besides, solar isn't where it should be.
Obama's policy, centering around biofuels and govt. handouts is a disaster waiting to happen. He will continue to do what he did in the senate, which is to say, nothing at all. His program :
* Reduce Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2050
Fine, doesn't help at all (in fact it makes stuff worse. By 2050 there won't be any oil to produce those emissions anyway, so if you're going to put 2050 as a limit date why even bother ? It also "just happens" that 2050 is LONG after his term as commisar, i mean president, ends)
* Invest in a Clean Energy Future
Great ! In a disney fairy tale sort of way.
* Support Next Generation Biofuels
VERY bad.
* Set America on Path to Oil Independence
Great ! In a disney fairy tale sort of way.
* Improve Energy Efficiency 50 Percent by 2030
Great ! That would be energy efficiency per person I imagine, which will save us exactly ... 50%/1.5 = 30%. And that's assuming that under Obama immigration doesn't increase immensely.
* Restore U.S. Leadership on Climate Change
Can you say "not making any relevant commitments". People have to live. People will live, and the energy savings won't happen in Obama's plan.
Nature is, at best, 2% efficient in converting solar radiation into energy. PV is right now 15%. Biofuels ARE NOT GOING TO CUT IT, not now, not ever. Right now plants have a temp. reprieve because they're cheaper to make than PV.
PV has the additional advantage that, once installed, it requires no more oil. Biofuels require constant oil imput, a new input every year in the form of fertilizer. Furthermore PV doesn't have to compete with normal agriculture and therefore PV can provide fuel WITHOUT taking away food. If we don't have food, power doesn't matter.
I agree that he can handout mucho govt. cash to his friends with agri subsidies, but they will only worsen things by making PV more expensive (and I'm sure that once energy is dependant on agri they won't push for "regulating the dangers of PV", right ?)
More impressive to me than any government law or regulation would be a leader who was honest about the problems that we are facing and one who would ask people to live with less. Many people are operating on the assumption that oil will be $60 or $40 or even $20 at some point in the future. They've seen oil prices fluctuate up and down and the media constantly blames OPEC, speculators, or "big oil" for high energy prices. It's the combination of every individual learning to conserve that might help mitigate our decline. Waiting for the market to send the correct signal is a disaster because we're constantly being told, "Don't worry, this will pass. There's technology out there that will save us. Keep on keeping on. Your lifestyle is not negotiable!"
Had we had this type of leadership over the last 7 years (or better yet 30 years), maybe we'd be better prepared for this. The peanut farmer warned us all about this and we laughed at him building SUV's, exurbs, and the "3,000 mile ceasar salad".
How about the responsibility of the public? Every single time a USA politician says anything half truthful the guy gets in trouble and you wonder why they lie habitually? It is literally a job requirement.
The public has ultimate responsibility. I hear people complain that the MSM is obsessed with Britney Spears, American Idol, Barry Bonds, but ultimately the TV news media has learned what people like like scandal, celebrity and talking heads yelling at each other. I hear people complain about Congress, but (those that bother to vote) re-elect the incumbent over 90% of the time. I hear people complain about higher gas prices, but many burn extra gas so they can race to the next stoplight or wait in the drive through at Starbucks.
An incoming President, need not worry about this. He has four years to make things better. The first step to fixing a problem lies with recognizing that there is in fact a problem. We have yet to reach that point, but I would rather have people hear it from a leader, then learn about it about when they can't fill up because the pumps are dry.
I disagree. A president's power is in large measure based on his popularity. In particular, he has to worry about the mid-term elections, and re-election for a second term.
Some have suggested that presidents should be elected for a single six-year term, to try and minimize this problem, but I don't know how much that would help. He'd still have to worry about Congress; presidents can't really do much without the backing of Congress.
A president's power is measured in whether they can get the things done that they want to get done. GWB has had neither popularity nor the backing of Congress since the mid-term elections and yet he managed to keep his Iraq policy intact. The "surge" was very unpopular and Dems controlled the house and the Senate and yet GWB got exactly what he wanted. Last time I checked, he was still funding the GWOT with appropriations, despite his lack of popularity and a Democratically controlled congress (with the ensuing hearings, investigations etc).
The fallacy here is that a message of conservation will be universally unpopular. I see dozens of examples of "greenwashing" everyday. I hear the word "sustainability" used to describe everything from organic farming to car manufacturing :-0 In the last month we've seen PO stories hit the MSM. From Wendell Goler asking the POTUS if if global oil production has peaked to the WSJ article on exports yesterday. Americans are slowly starting to figure it out. The last thing we need is a leader who wants to lower prices through a "tax holiday" or some other idiocy.
From CNBC Poll(unscientific web poll)
Who (or what) do you most blame for the high price of oil and gas? * 405 responses
25% OPEC - they're squeezing us for every dollar they can get.
10% Federal Reserve - they should have never reduced interest rates to these levels.
35% Consumers - we take gas for granted and drive huge SUVs.
14% President Bush - He should have never socked away so much oil in the strategic reserve.
16% Other - (tell us in an e-mail)
Ultimately, we probably agree that no matter what policies are put in place, things don't look good. I think we are way past population overshoot as evidenced by AGW and food, fuel, fertilizer, and power shortages. I think mother nature will tire of all of the hairless monkeys running around spoiling the planet. When she does, she'll smack us down with disease or a rapid shift in climate. But that's just the misanthropic part of my split personality. The hopeful (weren't we discussing naivete yesterday?) part of me hopes we do better before this happens. The catabolic collapse you and others describe is the worst scenario IMO. Long before we get to 30 or 40 years from now, we'll have reduced biodiversity and eliminated so many species and released so many toxins that the ecosystem will be a mess.
Inertia is on his side. Keeping the status quo is easier than making changes.
Everyone wishes we hadn't gone into Iraq, but now that we are in, most Americans - and most American politicians - do not think we should just pull out. Unfortunately. I think Bush, or his handlers, planned it this way, too. They're trying to set it up so that future presidents will find it difficult if not impossible to extricate us from Iraq.
He can make unpopular decisions like that, because he's a lame duck. I've said it before: if any politician could tell Americans the truth about peak oil, it's Bush. Doesn't look like he's going to, though.
It won't be. What will be unpopular, IMO, is telling people that it's not temporary. That the American way of life is coming to an end. I think that will be very unpopular, among Democrats as well as Republicans.
Polls are crap. Talk is cheap. What people do is something else.
Take those polls that suggest that 80% of the American people want prayer back in public schools. Yet it's been decades, and still no prayer in schools. Why is that? Because the support may be broad, but it's shallow. Few people actually care enough to vote on this issue, so nothing happens.
I think it's the same with environmental issues. They have broad support. Who wants to tell their kids they hate polar bears and love pollution? But the environmental support is all talk. Few vote on the issue. Let alone stop driving their SUVs if they can afford to drive them.
I saw this firsthand when I visited a friend in Ohio last week. She has a big SUV. It made sense when she had four children to haul around. But now all her children are grown, and have moved out of the state. She says she's concerned about climate change, etc., and drives her SUV carefully in order to conserve gas. No jackrabbit starts or stomping on the brakes. But the idea of getting a smaller car is out of the question. Even though usually the only person she's hauling around now is herself. She's well-off, and could afford gas even if it was $100 a gallon, and sees no reason to switch to a smaller car.
I agree, but in my view, it is by far the most likely scenario.
[Holds up flag of surrender.]
Well argued as usual. I have neither the time, inclination (nor probably intelligence for that matter) to refute your points. I enjoy these debates with you cause when I start feeling like I'm the most skeptical person in the world, you show me that there's an entirely new level of cynicism that I've failed to grasp ;-). Cheers.
I think both of you are missing a very significant part of BuCheney's power: fear. Americans actually live in fear of being named an enemy combatant and disappeared. They fear another war being started. They fear martial law.
Neither Obama nor Hillary will be feared, thus, they will be less effective unless they have the necessary majorities in Congress.
Cheers
I think you're absolutely wrong on this.
Americans may be afraid, but that's not what they're afraid of. If they were, they wouldn't have elected Bush and Cheney.
Nope, Americans who are fearful think the GOP (the "daddy party") will protect them better than the Democrats (the "mommy party"). They fear another terrorist attack. Or a conventional attack. Most people give no thought at all to the idea of being "disappeared." I don't think most Americans are even aware of the concept.
Unless "daddy" is an abusive drunk who plays with guns...
I did say "a" significant part. Perhaps I should have added "some" Americans. And there is no way in hell am wrong about this. Talk to anyone who is on the no-fly list, anyone who has gotten a letter from the FBI. Those Americans who don't fear this don't because they think they are one of the "good guys," i.e., a con/neo-con, or have "It can't happen to me" syndrome or just don't understand the world they currently live in. People who are aware of the deep cuts made into the fabric of the Constitution cannot but fear this. Else, why all the concern over NSPD 51 and Iran?
I should clarify that these fears may not necessarily be for themselves, but for others or our nation in general.
In the end, there is a significant portion of the populace that actually thinks about these things. (I am one of them.) What is the percentage? I don't know. I suspect at a subconscious level nearly everyone is affected.
One reason I am mostly content to be where I am is because I think it far from a long shot that an attack on Iran, a stolen election or martial law will happen before Bush leaves office. Couple The Perfect Storm with the geopolitical craziness and we're in an anything-can-happen mode.
The fearful you speak of are the fears of the cons/neo-cons. I was not speaking of that sub-group.
Cheers
And there is no way in hell am wrong about this.
So basically you're yourself a conspiracy theorist who doesn't care about facts ?
Sentences like this do indeed illuminate the rest of your post you know. Talk about generating fear in people. And obviously you accuse the other side of generating fear of you, while you are telling them that the other side will "disappear" (which you strongly insinuate means murder) them.
Hypocrisy ... such a comfort.
I disagree. The fear that has been used is the fear of terrorism and/or "islamo-fascism". People have been convinced that if we don't act, we'll be attacked again or worse our country will be taken over. Few people take the time to actually analyze that the danger of dying in a car wreck is far more likely than becoming a victim of an act of terror. Modern humans are very poor at determining the really risky things in their lives. If they were, less people would fear bears or sharks and more would be afraid of automobiles.
I think he already has, or been trying to, at least as much as his bosses have let him.
One of the TOD top quotes is Bush in May 2000
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of
energy in America."
And this one from a TV interview with CNBC's Ron Insana (sorry, no link )
"(In this decade)we're just going to have to change our habits. ......
we're going to have to think about how to drive different..... the hydrocarbon society will still be with us, but it can't be with us to the extent it is today."
-- President George W. Bush -- April 19, 2005
And we have Gails post
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3514
And last year Drumbeat had a link from a Whitehouse Q+A w/ Bush and Sarcozy (i think)
Bush answered a reporter that high oil was caused by diminishing supply. I should have bookmarked that one.
My civics (now there's a word that will date you) is a little rusty so please help.
It seems that having a majority in either the House or Senate - or both - of the other party fom the POTUS is not "good enough". You need to have enough to block filibusters override POTUS veto, etc.
Well - that assumes the POTUS is not a uniter and instead a divider in spite of the fact he/she may be the decider.
As I understand it, the reason the shrub got the ongoing Iraq war funding - for example - was that the Dems could not get enough votes to overide (threatened) POTUS veto. It would seem to me you could keep tossing up a modified bill to the POTUS and let them get vetoed ad nauseum until someone caved - silly maybe - and certainly I am missing something...
Anyway... what are the rules for POTUS veto override, blocking filiBLUSTER, etc.
Pete
You need 60 votes (out of 100) in the Senate to override a filibuster or other administrative trickery. You need 67 votes to override a veto. In the house a simple majority (out of 435) will pass any legislation or motion while 2/3's majority is needed to override a veto (291 votes).
If the dems wanted to get bloody, they could have prevented the war from continuing by failing to pass the war funding appropriations bills. This is what ultimately brought an end to the Vietnam war, Congress cut off the funding. I suspect the Iraq will end in the same manner, it's simply a question of how many more bodies and treasure will be squandered in the interim.
Probably. Especially if it's President McCain who's the decider.
Though even Obama didn't vote to cut off funding. And I don't blame him. This is a much more difficult problem than Vietnam was, if only because of the oil involved.
if only because of the oil involved.
Bah.
Strikes little old me that there is a gravy-train (not the dog food) in DC. Bucking that means you could not have 31 million in spare cash to loan to yourself. Or however you feather your DC roost.
Few in Washington have "man'ed up" over the years. 'Go along to get along' or 'the nail which stands up gets pounded down' is a common human mantra. If everyone else is doing X, why stand out? Really. Why stand out? Its not like you'll end up naked and shivering in the gutter.
(Pls post any pictures of Congress-Kritters naked shivering in the gutter just to prove me wrong)
Pls post any pictures of Congress-Kritters naked shivering in the gutter just to prove me wrong
Senator Vitter did not take pictures while he was "sinning" with prostitutes. But reports are ...
Alan
A very nice summation. Frankly I'm surprised readers haven't been howling at the moon over your statements.
True.
I would just recommend anyone to get solar water heating/solar electricity ASAP. Law of reciding horizons etc.
Actually like all commodities in a system where resources are in depletion, the prices for RE gear is increasing.
The wholesale prices for the equipment I install is going up not down.
Todd
Whats up with the yahoo crude graph thingambob??
It used to be delayed 1/2 hour now its a whole hour.
How do you figure that? According to Yahoo NYM quotes are delayed 30 mins.
The charts do have a lame bug, it looks like the delayed data around midnight gets assigned to the wrong day. The last 20 mins or so of data displayed at the end of each day actually belongs to the start of the day.
Because the hour displayed in the chart is now an hour past the present time.
At least thats how it looks like to me at my workstations at work and at home.
There goes the neighbourhood: bloodsuckers thrive on credit slump
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4029583.ece
They mention fish in the article, but when my dad passed away 2 years ago and we decided to stop dumping chemicals into his swimming pool, I went out and got a dozen feeder comets (goldfish) for $2 and threw them in to the foot-deep rainwater that was there after the pool was cleaned out. We haven't had a single mosquito from it since, the water is now 8' deep, and the comets are now 7" long. Dead easy. For a pool already out of control, bombing it with a bunch of guppies might be better, they reproduce faster. There are also microorganisms that'll do it which you can buy.
I actually like it as a lake more than I liked it as a pool, and the fish seem happy.
With just a little more effort, you can turn that into a pretty good aquaculture project and harvest a fair amount of food out of it.
I've always wanted to do that. (Turn a pool into a fishpond.)
One thing to keep in mind is climate. Guppies are tropical, and won't survive winter outdoors in most of the US. Goldfish (and koi) will, as long as the pool is deep enough that it doesn't freeze solid to the bottom.
Goldfish and koi breed readily in outdoor ponds, too, though they are egg layers rather than livebearers.
We're thinking about raising tilapia. Good protein source, relatively easy to maintain, disease-resistant, prolific breeders. And they taste good, too :)
I know tilapia are considered a delicacy these days, but I can't get over my upbringing in Hawaii, where they were considered a "rubbish fish" nobody would eat.
I remember when the local fishing show had a fish recipe contest. Someone submitted a joke recipe for "tilapia on a shingle." It gave elaborate instructions for preparing and seasoning the tilapia and baking it on a slab of wood. Then instructed you to throw away the tilapia and eat the slab of wood. :-)
Aquaponics Leanan :) you can find a huge community behind it (including my stuff) at www.backyardaquaponics.com/forum :) I am very happy about it all and really all in all its minimal energy use if done right. It shows how to do hydroponic and aquaculture on a budget and be stasis :)
Tilapia - The fish that was breed not to taste like a fish.
Tilapia - The McDonald's of the Fish World
Tilapia - The Tofu (or rice cake) of fish.
I NEVER eat Tilapia. I could use a fast if that is all that is available.
Alan
I just flashbacked to my youth splashing in the vernal pools behind the mansion of Henry Ford's mistress, Mrs. D********.
"Frogs Paradise" we 8 year olds called it.
Dried up almost every year by August but come next April it was full of fish, frogs, turtles you name it.
Brought plenty home just to spook my Ma.
Point is even if left alone I think those pools eventually will naturalize.
I suspect the pools behind Mrs. D's house probably weren't surrounded by miles and miles of suburban sprawl.
Oddly enough the front WAS surrounded by a development, River Oaks, full of dentists, doctors and lawyers.
Not many Ford guys.
Fords mansion is downriver from hers and he built boathouses and tunnels from them to the homes possibly to rendevous unobserved? :)
Another boathouse/tunnel on the Rouge was still further upstream, "Hitlers Hideout".
Some one claimed to have seen Hitler there. Good ol' Henry taking care of his buddy, post-war.
On Halloween she would open up the ballroom to the trick or treaters and put tables there and serve hot cocoa and doughnuts.
Nice lady.
UK House prices will drop by at least 10 per cent both this year and next, following a record fall this month, a leading economist has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2048449/House-prices-%27to-suffer...
The development of wind farms seem becalmed but the BWEA chairman is an optimist about green power
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/30/greenbusiness.windpower
Cellulosic Ethanol Plant Opens
120 barrels of ethanol per day. Yippee .... we're saved.
Now for 500,000 more of these palnts to open up........
geeee...they might just start running out of agricultural waste.
That's the problem with *all* biofuels. Even theoretically, they could never replace oil. They'd perhaps be good enough to produce input to petrochem, but not transport and electricity generation.
However there's a solution. The best natural crops are about 2% efficient energy convertors. Normal PV panels are currently between 11% and 15% efficient. That's 5 times better. They can be reasonably expected to become about 40% efficient, which is 20 times more efficient that biofuels. But costs need to come down. We cannot depend on PV in the near future, only after 10-15 years pass. We do not have 10-15 years.
We need nuclear first, to buy PV some 10-15 years to get to market.
(one candidate supports this tactic, unfortunately, it's not obama. But unless obama turns 180 on nuclear today, and stands up to the environuts ... truly sorry, I'm voting for the other guy (whether that's hillary or mccain) (and even if he turns ... he's been making more flipflops than a dolphin at the circus, he just doesn't seem trustworthy))
Well, let's see. McCain has reversed his old position against Christian extremists in the GOP, has reversed his old position against torture, and has reversed any pretense of having a problem with lobbyists. But his flipflops are at least predictable: he wants Bush's voters, so he adopts Bush's fascist politics. What is a fascist energy policy? Multi-trillion dollar wars.
My energy policy? End the war first. You're crazy if you think the government can pay for anything, anything at all, in alternative energy if it keeps spending 3/4 of a trillion a year on the military. It's fraud. It's bad debt. It's extortion of foreign governments. That's how we keep selling treasury bills. The government uses the war to justify borrowing to overheat the economy to get us to stomach the war. Our empire of foreign bases in 120 countries must collapse to send the message: our way of life is unsustainable.
100 years in Iraq? McCain, please flip-flop before we're bankrupt.
We really need to pull back to defensible positions around North America and its approaches, and preserve our military assets (we won't be able to buy many more much longer). Do it sooner rather than later, and we'll be in a stronger posture for the long term.
The British "East of Suez" Policy.
Of course they gave the Emirates their independence as part of the withdrawal. Might not have been a smart move in retrospective.
Alan
My energy policy? End the war first. You're crazy if you think the government can pay for anything, anything at all, in alternative energy if it keeps spending 3/4 of a trillion a year on the military. It's fraud. It's bad debt. It's extortion of foreign governments. That's how we keep selling treasury bills. The government uses the war to justify borrowing to overheat the economy to get us to stomach the war. Our empire of foreign bases in 120 countries must collapse to send the message: our way of life is unsustainable.
Great. That would be an excellent way to handle the near-certainty of resource disputes that are coming our way.
Have you got some kind of death-wish ?
A biorefinery built to produce 1.4 million gallons of ethanol a year from cellulosic biomass
For perspective, that's less than 100 barrels a day. From the link:
Verenium will use a combination of acid pretreatments, enzymes, and two types of bacteria to make ethanol from the plant matter--called bagasse--that's left over from processing sugarcane to make sugar.
There's no future in that route. Acid pretreatment ends up giving a dilute sugar solution, which ferments to about a 4.5% ethanol solution. Imagine the energy inputs required to convert Bud Lite into fuel grade ethanol. The energy inputs are a show-stopper.
True enough, but we must never forget that Charles Ponzi amassed a fortune selling postage stamps.
But he didn't run out of glue for the back of the stamps. i've a feeling 500,000 plant of this type would be a bit of a strain! Who the hell is going to collect and deliver all this stuff to 500,000 plants!! that was my figure by the way - plucked out of this air for say the equivelant of 50MBD.
I think I didn't make my point clearly enough. Charles Ponzi sold nothing. But he did manage to bamboozle a lot of "investors" in his scheme. And the most interesting thing to me about that situation is the way it was promoted by all the major media of the time, and protected by the Government, which until near the end, not only refused to examine his methods but even prevented investigation when he was clearly in violation of postal regulations -- or would have been if he were really buying and selling stamps.
Actually, analogous to the cellulosic ethanol example, one of the main reasons the scheme could never have worked is that there was just too much paper (cellulose) to move around. Tons of stamps would have had to be shipped to France to make a few dollars on the exchange. Investors will be burned in cellulosic schemes, and the media and the government will be complicit.
Robert from the 1000 silver BB approach what would you say they should do? Let the prestaged pretty much free by product of sugar processing go to naught or other? Is their a better way to use this asset/liability? Squeeze the last bit of blood from the proverbial turnip? While I'm no big fan of ethanol when you have a co-gen plant with waste heat or as in this case a plant with a by product on site I can see trying to further extend the energy already extended. Is this idea just totally without merit? Would appreciate your opinion.
Is their a better way to use this asset/liability?
Yes. And I am working directly on this problem. The subject strikes very, very close to home for me.
Yes, instead of Ethanol, we'll be making biodiesel, char and syn-gas. Run up tests will be going on the week after next for a range of biomass waste inputs. If the national news covers it as promised, I'll make sure TOD gets the link.
That is the way I see it also.
We will have to accept the limits imposed by photosynthesis but the char will make the soil more fertile and sequester CO2 at the same time.
Of course this presupposes we ARE smarter than yeast.
I'd love to see the EROEI on it. I'm interested that they're processing sugarcane, as that's supposed to be a positive EROEI for ethanol production. If it works, maybe more sugarcane will be planted and then we can stop having so much of this high fructose corn syrup crap in all our food. I personally avoid it usually. Of course, I have no idea about the potential for sugarcane in the U.S., the only place I know for sure that has the potential is Louisiana. Maybe Hawaii, Florida, or California too??? Does anybody know?
I always thought Florida had lots of sugarcane-they always discuss their power over Florida politicos.
It was produced en masse back in the early days of Florida, I think freezes pushed it down to south Florida and the everglades, like much of the citrus industry. It's subsidized, the pollution from fertilizer is largely ignored, but yes it is produced here. Note they are talking about using sugar cane waste in LA, not the sugar cane itself.
C&H sugar, anyone? That's were they used to grow it! But of course it required near-slave labor. If we want to return to a serf-based economy, then Sugar Ethanol can be made to power it.
C&H, oh right, I forgot! I hope not, but slave labor might come back in fashion.
What a waste: dream of free energy turns into £3bn-a-year public bill
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/29/britishenergygroupbusines...
Global demand destruction of transportation fuel is starting to gain some traction...
'Full Blown Inflation
Friday, May 30th, 2008 at 8:20 AM
We have gasoline consumption numbers for the front end of Memorial Day weekend and it wasn’t pretty. As I am using this as an indicator of consumer spending, the extension is that the weekend was a bust.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed average demand fell slightly over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, figures from the firm that publishes the MasterCard SpendingPulse survey showed gasoline demand last Friday, the first day of the long Memorial Day weekend, was down 7.6 percent year over year.
The US fiscal budget isn’t the only one being blown out by inflation. Now we see key foreign nations quickly moving to save their budgets and stem the oil situation by removing energy subsidies. This is a fiscal depressant. It should also seem obvious that a significant reduction on global oil demand is at hand. It also removes alot of people from the modern economy. Even if this helps stem the oil price rise, it is also a huge one time inflation event for these consumers, who are already severely stressed by food inflation.'...snip...
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1684
The article goes on to examine the effects of fuel subsidies eliminations in countries around the globe. Subsidy eliminations amount to a one time huge inflationary hit to individuals and businesses. Any that believe that Dow Chemical is going to be the only company raising prices by 20% across the board is in for a rude awakening. Interesting, and unusual, how the Dow CEO made some very deragatory comments about US fiscal and monetary policies...the pig men are starting to hear it from their campaign contributors. We might not get the govs attention but the CEOs will.
Green Car Congress: US Vehicle Miles Travelled Dropping
Yet gasoline demand has barely shifted - ethanol impacting MPG, perhaps? Or flawed data?
I suspect people are just filling their tanks right up.
If prices are stable then you just get what you need, but if they are rapidly rising you top right up, as tomorrow it may be dearer.
Of course, this sort of effect can only influence figures for so long, so how valid this idea is should become clear fairly soon.
Actually, it is likely to go in reverse later, as high prices bite and people can no longer afford to fill up.
One of the things that has been holding down miles driven in the Midwest is the colder than normal Spring weather.
I am sitting at my computer in the shop with an electric heater under the desk to try to keep from getting hypothermia. I am still running the furnace in the house - At the end of May.
I have only had the top down on my convertible once and then almost froze my ears and fingers off. When we get some seasonably warm weather I think you will see driven miles go up very quickly in this part of the country.
One wonders whether these cool temperatures you mention are related to changes in the North Atlantic. It looks to me (without any proper measurements) that the THC may have weakened this year in the Greenland Sea. This may be similar to what happened in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Thus, I'm curious about the temperatures you mention as compared with the late 1970's, when, as you may recall, winters were extremely cold in the mid-western U.S. Would you happen to have any data to use for comparison?
Here's some references from back then:
Diaz, H.F. and R.G. Quayle, "The 1976-77 Winter in the Contiguous U.S. in Comparison to Past Records", Mon. Wea. Rev 106,1391 (1978).
Karl, T.R., R.E. Livezey and E.S. Epstein, "Recent Unusual Mean Winter Temperatures Across the Contiguous united States", Bul. Amer. Mererol. Soc. 65, 1302 (1984).
E. Swanson
The National Geographic ran an article entitled methinks "Whats Happenning to our Weather?".
The Winter of 1976 produced some incredible flows of ice off the Pictured Rocks in Munising, MI, every color of the rainbow.
A friend remarked at the time that it must be a once in a lifetime event. I fear she may have been right.
Note, however, that according to FHWA (see http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/08martvt/08martvt.pdf ), Gulf and South Atlantic regions also experienced VMT declines of 6.1% and 4.7% respectively in March of 2008. Gulf region had a greater decline than the Midwest. Perhaps the ability of drivers to pay higher gas and diesel prices has more to do with VMT declines than the weather.
well, thats global warming for you :-)
Mudlogger, I may be wrong but i'm guessing you are in Aberdeen. Has it been cold with you too? (i'm in Edinburgh). I don't think I could take another cold summer. My cherry tree blossom has just come out! Ridiculous.
Marco
To recap:
UK British Energy's Sizewell B Shut down (we still don't know why.
BG refuses to even ID the reactors that have been shut).
And it's still down along with:
"Problems continued yesterday when the Hunterston nuclear power reactor in Scotland failed. That meant ten of British Energy's 16 nuclear generation units were out of service either for maintenance or through faults.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23487972-details/500,000+suff...
Darkness at noon as National Grid and E.ON dispute price
A rescue plan to avert blackouts that hit 500,000 homes this week was undermined by demands of E.ON, the German energy group, that National Grid pay double the usual price for an emergency electricity boost, The Times has learnt.
New surges in energy bills imminent, says power boss
The chief executive of one of Britain’s largest power companies issued a warning yesterday that further energy price rises were imminent.
Ian Marchant, the chief executive of Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE), which supplies power to 8.45 million UK customers, said that an unprecedented rise in oil prices in recent months meant that the outlook for consumers was not good."
Foreigners bidding for BG's ground, where new nukes will be built,
are under no obligation to guarantee power rates, or power for that matter to UK.
Did I miss something here?
More:
"Tuesday's problems could have been worse had it not been for imports of French nuclear power. A cable under the Channel that carries 2,000 megawatts of electricity has been working at full capacity over the past two days.
Professor Dieter Helm, an energy expert at Oxford University, said: 'If you take that electricity out of the supply system, you would be in really serious trouble.'"
And people still think electric cars will work?
Britain acting with monumental incompetence tells us little about supplies elsewhere.
EV's certainly need some power, and the UK has made no provision to supply it.
"Britain acting with monumental incompetence tells us little about supplies elsewhere.
EV's certainly need some power, and the UK has made no provision to supply it."
Unless you see electricity problems spreading from "the colonies"
where those chaps aren't quite up to Imperial Standards, to
the country where power generation was invented.
And why has the UK made no provision to supply it?
And note Scotland getting edgy for independence.
No accident that.
The UK has decided that instead of an energy plan they will rely on the free market, and hypothecated their policy on demand calling forth supply.
They are basically relying on imports of NG and LNG, and have built terminals at a cost of several billions to import.
At no stage have they tried to work out if these supplies will come in, or even exist.
Europe alone has based it's projections on taking the vast majority of increased natural gas supplies.
Norway has said that since the UK does not negotiate long-term contracts it will be used as the 'swing' load - in the event of shortages, everyone else will take priority.
For coal they have been reluctant to build more plants, and intended to go for the alleged 'clean coal' technologies.
They have now realised that no such technology presently exists, and they are going to spend a lot on producing a 'clean coal ready' plant, without plans to actually sequester the coal.
For nuclear for 10 years they said that it was not needed, but now have discovered it is, and in the meantime the supporting expertise and remaining infrastructure has decayed.
In France a comprehensive plan has resulted in the world's greatest civil nuclear expertise, and they run their reprocessing plant near Le Havre without major difficulty.
The unhappy and continually changing compromises between public and private ownership in Britain have prevented any possibility of planning.
At the moment they are not committed to a nuclear program and have no strategic goals, so that industry is not only expected to finance the reactors but to deal with a vacillating Government which changes policy at the drop of a hat.
For renewables their plan is to generate 33GW nameplate, around 10GW average hourly output from off-shore wind, which is hugely more expensive than on-shore, the latest estimates centering on £99bn, excluding connection and backup.
In my view in the UK the financial situation we will be in before long will preclude those sort of sums being spent.
We are in at least as bad a fiscal position as in the 70's, and we are going to hit peak oil on top of that.
As for conservation, there is no co-ordinated policy at all.
A comment I made to the BBC today perhaps adequately illustrates this:
'It is all very well to provide extra money to the poorest for rising fuel bills, but the Government has allowed utility companies to raise prices differentially for low users, charging much more for the first units of use, with some bills rising by up to 70%.
The people this hits are the old, the poor, and those who attempt to conserve'
We will loose some 30GW of generating capacity due to age in the next 10-15 years, and there is no possibility of replacing it within this time frame.
That ignores the fact that much home heating here is natural gas based, and no attempt has been made to secure supplies.
Thank you.
That reinforces my opinion.
Price it high enough and it will come.
But "it" has to come thru the EU which has an altogether different policy:
"Norway has said that since the UK does not negotiate long-term contracts it will be used as the 'swing' load - in the event of shortages, everyone else will take priority."
Right now the only "good" coming out of this, IMHO, is
that the US, doing much the same thing, will see the results
visited first upon the UK.
Thanks for being our canary. For what it's worth.
As far as 'Colonialism' is concerned, I tend to regard any energy importer as a colony these days, no matter what they have printed on their Name Badges.
'My kingdom for some horsepower!' .. you might say.
Secondly, I'm wondering why you take an electricity generation crisis to point at EV's as the untenable technology at hand. You could just as well have said, "And people still think electric toasters will work?" or Computers, or Telephones? While transportation is rightly a crux question around here, it's a little bizarre to hang one electrical application on this generating and distribution snafu. If Nuclear hangs itself by its own complexity, or our inability to pamper it properly, or if the current grid system has a string of blowups, I can still assure you that people will not forget how useful electricity is, and will find new proportions (in generation and distribution) to make use of it as an invaluable information systems power source, as well as 'smart-brute-force' power source. Electric Vehicles will surely be part of this setup, while not necessarily looking like the ubiquitous 'car culture' of today. [Obligatory Disclaimer]
Bob
From a "Colonist" still beholding to The Queen, the answer is simple Bob.
Toaster = Watt
EV's = kiloWatt
And, we can all get by without a toaster for a while, and maybe even a big flat screen TV (nahhh!), but transportation is still critical in our day and age.
Also, what about all the energy to manufacture the new vehicles and battery systems? This always seems to get looked over as if "eco-thinking" begins the day of purchase, and not the day of conception.
Isnt most of the grid supply problem with peak demand? (2pm-6pm)
cant the EV chargers be programmed to charge off peak hours?
"Isnt most of the grid supply problem with peak demand? (2pm-6pm)
cant the EV chargers be programmed to charge off peak hours?"
Add one more bit of complexity to the equation.
And a bureaucracy needed to enforce.
No, just make time of use meters standard on all homes and businesses. The increased cost of charging during the day will encourage people to charge at night.
So, are you going to raise prices during the day, or lower them at night?
"...just make time of use meters standard on all homes and businesses."
And who's going to pay to put these meters in?
Another bit of complexity added cost.
No, you would reflect the actual spot price of electicity as it varies every second in the wholesale market in consumers bills, rather than hiding it with fixed prices. This would allow careful users to lower their bills.
Don't forget that the energy companies are run for profit and not the benefit of their consumers, the UK public is viewed as little more than a cash cow to the Govt and their buddies.
I do not expect, for a microsecond, any ghost of a sign of a plan from the political class. They'll be living high on the hog well after the country's gone titsup, and they'll send an army lad around your gaff to take the last loaf of bread off your table too.
How can I state this diplomatically? NO! The electric grid is not some kind of fungible energy magic land that can instantaneously respond to ill advised free market shenanigans. Generating plants of various fuel sources have different time constants and cannot ramp up and down like the volume on your stereo. Also, bulk transmission needs to be scheduled, and it is not as easy as plugging in an extension cord.
My reason for the condescending rant is it seems idealists have hijacked the engineering and as a result have "screwed the pooch". Time of Use (TOU) is a good idea and I highly support it. Implementing the communication infrastructure will provide the best return on negawatts.
Metering in the UK can already provide for time of use charging.
It works well - here is the data for California when it was tried:
http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/3/1/014003/
An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
If they switch to the newer V2G system, then EV vehicles would actually help to smooth peaks and balance the load.
For places like France, with it's nuclear power, and even the US, with it's huge wind and solar potential, it should work well.
BTW, an electric vehicle only uses a fraction of the power that an ICE vehicle uses, so you don't have to replace all the power currently provided by oil for transport.
That is as long as you have power in the first place, of course, unlike the UK.
Our UK house has a dual tarrif meter. You can also use it for a single tarrif.
Its even clever enough to work out the UK summer time [shift 1hr].
01.00 to 08:00 is approx 1/5 of the day tarrif.
We use our electric heavily 06:00 to 08:00, but it's still debatable if it's good value.
Here in the Czech Republic all new electricity meters are digital and capable of 4 different charging rates. It has been this way for the last few years so penetration is already racking up.
Most people just use them for one tariff, but it is good to know I can change over to a dual tariff with out changing my meter.
There are already 'TOU' or Time of Use agreements that can be set up with some utilities (USA). This sometimes accompanies a Home Solar installation, so one can sell their produced power High($) during the peaktimes in the day, and buy low($) at night when they are consuming.
http://www.planitsolar.com/html/timeofusemetering.html
There are benefits to both the utility and the consumer, which could give both an incentive to invest in the equipment needed to make it work. Not all complexity is going to become an achilles heel, nor is it ever completely avoidable. It can be quite complex to find your way to a simpler lifestyle.. that's not a reason not to do it.
Bob
We had a time of use meter when we first moved to this rural electric district 18 years ago. It worked great in that we could move power expensive uses to off hours and get cheaper rates. Last year they took the meter out and replaced it with a one price meter. Said it was too much trouble to bill that way.
Yeah it's much easier if they just stick to one price, and in particular the higher one.
BINGO! You hit it on the head.
Yes, you did miss something.
UK Power was once nationalised in to the Central Electricity Generating Board. (CEGB)
My old man worked for them all his life (bar 3 years in khaki) Rising to Snr Eng.
Even during Morcambe and Wise Shows in the 70's or straight after the Queens Speech on Xmas Day, the CEGB did not ever, EVER, get close to 80% capacity.
They were proud of that.
These Engineers, in tweed jackets that smelt of pipe tobacco and sweat, came home to Christmas Lunch in the Evening rather than risk anything going wrong.
Presents stayed under the tree until Dad got back.
It was their job to keep British Lights on you see.
Electricity was not viewed as a 'product' or 'commodity' It was regarded as a strategic resource. Part of the lifeblood of a successful nation state.
You want to change it?
Exterminate every Management Consultant alive. (They can bend backs on bio-diesel farms).
Exterminate all Government Quangos (saves about £100 billion).
Re - Nationalise all Power Generators and the grid. Steal EON'S stake and the stakes of all the others. Let them sue.
Biggest mistake ever: Commercialising strategic national assets for the benefit of crooks.
They did it with trains and water. They did it in Russia until Putin sorted them out, they did it in South America.
All complete screw ups and rip offs.
They would do it with the air you breathe if they could.
Now you may think that this sounds like a commie rant. Think again
Some things are just too important to be run by thieves.
A most excellent, useful, and informative post, Mudlogger. Thank you.
I agree wholeheartedly about the way electricity used to be run here.
Things have reached such a pass though that it seems that the simplest way would be to simply let the French run it.
The Le Havre reprocessing facility has run well for many years, whilst Sellafield has had cock-up after cock-up.
Inevitable though, really, when the Government kept changing it's mind all the time.
This incompetence has been going on for years - they released papers recently showing that a leak at Sellafield, Windscale then, was not the fault of the technicians who they blamed at the time, but was the result of the politicians over-riding the engineers, and demanding that production in aid of weapons continued, after they had been clearly warned it was unsafe.
As I said in another post, the Government is now having to subsidise the poor due to rising electricity costs, when recently low users had differentially large rises, up to 70%, from the utilities, penalising the poor and those who seek to conserve.
You might be able to reform the wicked, the stupid and terminally incompetent are beyond hope.
There was some discussion of electricity prices on the BBC news yesterday. Folk who are on pre-payment meters are paying an additional £400 per year, £33 per month, this money is used to subsidise folk who pay quarterly. It is only the most poorest people who can claim some extra winter fuel allowance.
On the bright side: The higher the electric rates go the more profitable it will be to build new wind towers and nuclear power plants.
Shutdowns and plunging profits cast doubt on nuclear future
"The next-day wholesale price of electricity rose 13 per cent yesterday in response to the outages."
Who knows how much France is getting paid to fill the breach?
Silverjet suspends flights
Interesting how it plays out. We keep hearing these predictions that it is the bottom tier that will fall out of the flying population, and while it's probably true enough in terms of who buys the tickets, that these more upscale 'gravy trains' are having the rugs pulled from underneath, as the business travelers are likely moving down into the Mainstream flights, while Joe Public leaves more of those seats available.. I Guess.
A bit like what will happen in the coming collapse; the Middle Class will essentially be wiped out. I believe the same thing happens with restaurants; the top tier survives, as does the bottom tier, but the middle tier restaurants lose their customers to the other two tiers and fold.
Major auto manufacturers commit to eco-friendly development
http://www.gizmag.com/major-auto-manufacturers-commit-to-eco-friendly-de...
Here's one for totoneila from today's NY Times:
Peru Guards Its Guano as Demand Soars Again
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/30/world/americas/30peru.html
Steam engines > the cotton gin > gas lighting > the telephone > human flight > air travel for the masses > the international space station > bird shit.
Does anyone see a pattern here?
Well, accroding to Wikipedia bats are mammals so it's mammal shit but your observation is spot on ;-)
From Wikipeda
Guano (from the Quechua 'wanu', via Spanish) is the feces of seabirds, bats, and seals [1].
From Dictionary.com
gua·no –noun
1. a natural manure composed chiefly of the excrement of sea birds, found esp. on islands near the Peruvian coast.
The Peruvian guano is from sea birds, not bats.
Have you hugged your guano bird today?
Ol' totoneila couldn't have put it better himself. :-)
Eep! Wouldn't do that. A friend of the family almost died a few years ago from histoplasmosis cleaning out his barn that was used as a bat roost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoplasmosis
'Admire them from afar' might be better advice.
I pat my guano birds, they're called chickens.
They excrete things called eggs that we like to eat.
Hugging is a little bio-hazardous however.
And their guano is best spread out in homeopathic doses. Too much N.
We had chickens for a little while.. not exactly cuddly creatures, those.
Europe fuel protests spread wider
Blacklight power claims 50kw prototype
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/05/balcklight-power-claims-50kw-prototype....
They've raised $50m of backing though from major companies!
That is so sad ... I want their fundraising guy alone for an hour so I can get him working on things that actually exist.
Teh energy sector is grossly underinvested in R & D.
Apart from umpteen billions thrown at Tokamac fusion, which is never in this world going to provide power at a reasonable price but which is evaluated by the very people whose jobs depend on it, R & D is a tiny fraction of turnover.
Instead of that we get vast production subsidies for various energy forms, in the vague hope that they will become economic when they reach mass production.
Blue skies and high risk research should have at least $1bn a year.
At least ITER is based on real science, unlike small players like BLP, Steorn and dozens of others which are based on junk science. Only projects with sound science have a chance to succeed, and there is no particular evidence the private sector is any better at that than the public sector.
Since only about 1 in 10 startups succeed, it really comes down to the question, where do you want to risk wasting your money - public financed boondoggle or private sector scammers? The preference is largely ideological.
The problem lies in who does the assessment.
It tends to be the big boys, in fusion particularly we have people who are heavily involved in ITER assessing other approaches, and surprise, surprise, they decide they won't work.
The real money is spent in any case on the mega projects.
Real risk capital is very difficult indeed to find - the benefits are outside of the time horizon of private enterprise, and government prefers really big projects.
A good example of worthwhile projects which find it very difficult indeed to get funding is high altitude wind, which is not inherently unreasonable but has been starved of funding for years, whilst wind-turbines are built in locations which just aren't windy at huge subsidy on the grounds that at some stage mass production will reduce costs. Costs have actually been going up, not down.
All I am arguing for is that a small fraction of the present largesse should be spent on genuinely innovative projects.
Reproducible Cold Fusion Excess Heat experiment ?
It is a shame that these two stories have blown up on the same day. The hydrino thing runs counter to basic quantum mechanics and the Blacklight power claims are unverified by other research groups and therefore highly suspect. The word scam comes to mind.
OTOH, Arata is a highly respected member of the Japanese physics community with an excellent track record in this and other research areas. There have been several other reports of excess heat and helium when deuterons are squeezed into palladium nanopowder, so he should be seen as one of a sizeable community of "Cold Fusion" researchers, and not a just another maverick, like Mills. Although I have a pretty conventional research background in high energy atomic physics, I find Arata's claims completely convincing and worthy of well-funded follow-up research. BTW, before anyone else here with a physics background embarrasses themselves with the usual "but its impossible" diatribe, I would advise them to check up on the latest developments in quantum solid-state research. This phenomenon is not understandable in classical 19th century terms, but relatively easy to explain once you take the quantum nature of interstitial hydrogen into account.
Whether Arata or anyone else will ever be able to turn this phenomenon into a useful source of energy is another matter, of course. The EROEI is currently around 1.2 (comparable with bio-ethanol), and the substrate materials very expensive and rare.
OTOH, were there to be a technological breakthrough in this area, the price of oil would go back to $ US 20 / barrel in pretty short order, I reckon. However, as everyone knows, miracles dont happen nowadays......
Sounds about as efficient as the early steam engines!
If at this very early stage you can get a positive return, then surely there is lots of optimisation that can take place.
Your comments on these two technologies coming up on the same day remind me of two alternative fusion schemes.
Obviously not having a background in nuclear physics it is impossible to do a proper evaluation, but just looking at the financing techniques it seems to me that one, focus fusion, is a scam:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/05/focus-fusion-has-agreement-with-cmef-of...
Next Big Future: Focus fusion has agreement with CMEF of Sweden
Whilst the other, the Bussard boron reactor looks to have genuine prospects:
http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2008/01/bussards-inertial-electrostatic...
advanced nanotechnology: Bussard's inertial electrostatic confinement fusion WB-7 prototype activated
I would be grateful for your assessment of these two systems.
I wouldn't rate either of these projects as a scam, but I would urge investors hoping for a return on their buck to stay well clear. The basic problem is that people have been experimenting with a wide variety of small "fusors" similar in concept to these, and no one has ever got anywhere near the break-even point. Its easy to get a certain number of fusion events - TV voltages suffice - but the cross-section is so tiny that kinetic systems have an extremely poor energy yield. Very generally, the bigger the machine, the better the overall efficiency. This is why the international efforts like JET and ITER have been incredibly huge machines costing billions. As far as I can tell, both of these groups are basically saying "we would like more money to build a bigger and better version of our current design and - wow - just think how great if we got the breakthrough everyone has been yearning for since 1960" ! Sadly they have no good a priori arguments (that I can see) for why they should succeed - on a medium-sized budget - where everyone else on both micro and mega budgets have completely failed to deliver the goods so far.
g, sound high energy explanation except for one thing. Oil will only go down to $20/bbl if they put the fusion process into a Mr. Fusion and attach it to flying Deloreans.
Fusion means electricity and we are a long way off from converting our liquid fuel transportation fleet to electric motive power.
Randy Mills and Blacklight
The Blacklight story will go down as either an incredible world-shaking breakthrough in energy supply, or as one of the best-run scams in recent history. Randy Mills, the man behind the the business, has self-published a huge tome that claims to explain everything in the universe (filled with big equations) including the long-sought link between quantum mechanics and gravity. You can download it for free.
Plus (this is not a joke) Mills says he invented technology that will cure cancer.
Mills is undoubtedly a very compelling person, as you might guess from his success at raising funds, and from the list of Blacklight board members - many of whom are the source of these funds (former CEO of Westinghouse, many top brass from the Navy, etc.). When this all blows up and eventually folds (as I believe will happen), there will be some huge embarassment and lawsuits.
It's astonishing how long all those smart PhDs have been working at Blacklight and nobody has blown the whistle on the operation ...
- Dick Lawrence
Oh, Oracle of the Internet - Channel shipping dates!
http://www.villagevoice.com/news/9951,baard,11218,1.html
This battery was to ship in 2007.
http://www.com-advantage.com/blp_early/announce.html
(Wonder when the Antidoomer will pick up on the black light battery!)
Cold Fusion?
These guys seem to be doing something like this...
http://jlnlabs.online.fr/cfr/index.htm
Personally, I would like to build a pressure vessel, fill it with D2O (incompressible), and force hydrolysis to skyrocket deuterium pressure at a palladium electrode. I am talking many, many, many atmospheres of pressure... and see if I can pack deteurium tight enough to get it to start reacting to helium and making heat.
The first one better be pretty small because I don't want enough free deuterium around the electrode to take out the whole lab, including me, if it gets out of control.
As far as the oxygen is concerned, form it away from the deuterium and vent it if necessary.
Steve
Squeezing water out of oil
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9954182-54.html
Case against climate change discredited by study
Perhaps the headline overstates the situation. The temperature still dropped from 1940 to 1970.
And the article also notes
The latter point is not given much debate, how odd.
This is, I believe, the Nature article referenced:
http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080528/full/453569a.html
Those who wish to deny the effects of our changing the atmosphere often jump on any report about temperature measurement, measurement techniques, and measurement anomalies.
The glaciers are retreating world wide, and the north polar ice cap is melting. That would seem a fairly obvious bottom line, whatever the measurements are up top.
The real bottom line is that noone really knows what is going on with the climate due to too many variables. Here are the facts..:-)
Does it look like warming? Yep
Can we be causing it? Yep
Could it also be caused by the sun or a natural fluctuation? Yep
Do we have a clue other than WAGs? Nope
Is it the latest cause du jour for out of work politicians? Yep
Do you trust ANY of them to tell the truth? Nope
Why do I have to walk to work? Oh right, We need more carbon taxes on oil.
Any of these foolish ideas actually fix anything? Nope.
Might they make things worse? Yep, seeding the oceans sounds like a really bad idea.
Do you really want to move back to a cave? Nope
Is Global Warming the most likely "cover story" for Peak Oil? Yep
Will Global Warming "prevention measures" will lead to a police state. Yep
I like rail, but a friend of mine recently pointed out that rail can easily be used to move people into camps. If the local supply of gas runs out and there is no rail, you are on your own which is a far better situation than the Gulag.
"The real bottom line is that noone really knows what is going on with the climate due to too many variables"
actually, the vast majority of climate scientists DO have a clue - and have published their findings - feel free to do some reading and learn from those experts in the field
"Could it also be caused by the sun?" - nope - all those lovely satellites orbiting our little mudball would have noticed if it were the sun - not happening
"or a natural fluctuation?" - possible, but the absolutely undoubted amount of CO2 humans having been putting out, and C02's effects are a pretty damn clear smoking gun here - let's go with the precautionary principle
"Do we have a clue other than WAGs?" clearly, see mountains of research by the vast majority of experts in the field
"Is it the latest cause du jour for out of work politicians?" - ah yes, where would we be without a right-wing dig at Al Gore - clearly Al is really the cause of all our problems, not buring coal, gas, oil, rainforests etc., glad you got around to pointing this out, it does sooooo much to prove your point logically and scientifically
"Why do I have to walk to work?" - hmmmm, because oil production is peaking - and if you are an American you could probably use the exercise? - or don't, keep paying high prices for gas, stay out of shape - enjoy life, eat out more often!
"Do you really want to move back to a cave?" - Did I miss anyone suggesting this? I may have been napping during that evil Al Gore's last speech suggesting this as an option - now, if you tell me The Chimp Who Drives is suggesting moving nubile women and canned (Nitropack) food into a cave to survive what's coming, I may believe that....
"Will Global Warming "prevention measures" will lead to a police state." - ah yes, the inevitable UN Black Helicopters appeal - only this was lacking to demonstrate right-wing paranoia at it's best - you failed to mention "them" coming after our guns - but you can always include it in your response - the trains to camps has a nice ring to it - we wouldn't want to build up our train infrastructure, because the Evil World Government can use it to ship us all off to the Haliburton-built camps, or wait, Halliburton is a fine oil-field services company, right?
Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"
Funny, he doesn't sound convinced and he was part of the team. Here's the link.
http://mobile2.wsj.com/device/html_article.php?id=1&CALL_URL=http://onli...
I don't trust Al Gore any more than I trust Bush or Cheney. You should really wake up and smell the guano here. That's all he's offering and it may not even be useful fertilizer. Is the Iraq the first of MANY possible resource wars in this century? You bet. Look at the water problems worldwide and you'll see where the conflicts are going to be. To say we'll all sing around the campfire is naive at best and very very ignorant of history.
Of course conservation is the wave of the future, which means no more golf courses in Nevada. A surcharge after a certain amount will take care of this so people like Al Gore can't use enough for a small country. What a hypocrite. He's a self serving politician, nothing more or less.
Now look at where 9-11 got us, when STEEL doors, REAL locks and a few good dogs would have solved the problem forever. The last thing we need is yet another government agency to manage Global Warming, rationing by price is working and will continue to. No black market needed. Cultural shame is even better. What do you think the result of Global Warming is going to be? You think it stops at a carbon credit market? Please.......its another excuse for a power/money grab, pure and simple. Everyone could read, until the Dept of Reeducation took over and now all children are left behind. Of course, simple solutions don't provide any $$$ to Haliburton, Blackwater etc, etc,. What's next?
"inevitable UN Black Helicopters appeal - only this was lacking to demonstrate right-wing paranoia at it's best" BTW, I love this statement, perhaps you should tell it to Vicky Weaver's ghost or anyone in Waco...RIP
Makes you wonder who would "be the man" in the prison cell if you put Cheney, Bush, Gonzales, Clinton and Reno in a large cell....my money's on Reno. Who you taking?
Is pollution and unbridled development harmful? You bet, one look at Bejing's hospitals (respiratory section) will tell you that. Is there going to be enough food to go around, not very likely. Starving people don't go gently into the goodnight, so you might want to quit that "community organizer" thing and do some real work. Try engineering, there isn't enough of us anymore. Suggested research:uncertainty principle. Which means sometimes you just don't know and the more complex a system is, the more you depend on high probabilities.
I really hope we don't try to seed the oceans to absorb CO2, the law of unintended consequences rules and this could have some very bad side effects.
They won't be coming after my guns, they already have plenty and won't have time for that. Given the current ammo shortage, I wouldn't want to be in LA or NY if the lights go out for a few days. Judging by the recent news, the NY cops don't shoot very well and they'll go through their shells pretty quickly. Could be really ugly, really fast. Poor b*st*rd was going to get married that day, RIP. Glad they aren't protecting me.
On the Evil World government, I'm not worried about this at all...I have plenty of useful skills and Peak oil does actually solve some problems. Be careful though, "community organizers" such as yourself are treated as radicals and wind up on the train. Don't forget to wave!
Sometimes it's truly amazing how many people are out to get ya...
Is your post filled with strawmen? Yep.
Why the Gulag? - Who would they tax???
Sounds like Rummy.
"Do I like to ask myself silly softball questions with trivial answers?" Yep.
Oil Scenarios
This is a really good CNBC video on oil prices. Ray Carbone, in my opinion, puts his finger right on the problem. He talks about the rising consumption in oil exporting countries. Brian Wesbury, on the other hand, comes off as a complete idiot. He compares the current oil supply scare to Malthus’ essay on population. He also says that things that could cause oil prices to rise, like Iran closing off the Straits of Hormuz or a major hurricane in the Gulf "have already been priced into the market".
Ron Patterson
"He also says that things that could cause oil prices to rise, like Iran closing off the Straits of Hormuz or a major hurricane in the Gulf "have already been priced into the market"."
Right. The PWG has done everything to keep prices down.
A slow moving Cat 3 over the NOGC puts NG at $20.
Gasoline at $7.
Crude at $175.
OR rationing imposed, one way or another.
Not to mention what's left of the NOGC is under water
again.
Right about that cat 3+ hurricane.
And we probably do not have long to wait - official season starts this weekened - June 1.
Pete
The high risk period is September 10th, plus or minus 3 weeks. June 2nd may see something much further south in the Caribbean, but GoM water temperatures are still too cool.
Best Hopes for Shear Winds,
Alan
From Wikipedia
Katrina was the big news in 2005, of course, but most people don't realize that 2 or 3 other hurricanes got their names retired that year, including Dennis & Emily.
June is probably relatively safe in the northern Gulf. July...not so much.
Yep, we got Ivan and then 10 months later the eye of Dennis. Almost thought about moving! Another reason not to move just yet and one good reason to look forward to June 1st, the start of Red Snapper season in Federal Waters. I am kind of hoping less boats offshore due to the gas prices and better fishing!
And don't forget Hurricane Charley which went almost straight up Semoran Blvd / Hwy 436 and shut down Orlando for the better part of a week. Or Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne which combined over a three week period to destroy my house.
We need airplanes equipped to seed clouds to cut a hurricane down in size.
Already started:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/143513.shtml?5day#con...
just a depression that is not likely to amount to anything (famous last words)
I am trying to find the surface temp anomoly in the gulf have lost my link. Anyone?
Marco,
Perhaps this one?: Reynolds SST analysis
This looks interesting as well: NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)
NR
also:
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003376/
Tons of SST data! You'd think it was important or something :-)
Shortly before Katrina hit NOLA, I was warned by a friend that oil rigs were getting hit, and to fill up all of my vehicles' tanks. After arriving at the gas station for the 4th time in a 30 minute period, the attendant asked, "Do you know something I don't?"
My reply, "Yes. Refineries will be out of commission due to Katrina tomorrow, so gas prices are going to rise substantially."
"Oh."
So when the next one rolls into the GoM, and looks like it might hit near NOLA, go fill up your tanks!
I saw that Ron, thanks for the link.
Wesbury made me choke on my wheaties.
Does CNBC roll that boob out just to be "fair and balanced"?
No wonder the financials are such a mess, he is probably only the tip of the iceberg too.
In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
http://seekingalpha.com/article/79506-in-light-of-peak-oil-financial-div...
"As an aside, the oil inventory report just came out today, and oil inventories were down over 8 million barrels, a big big surprise versus estimates. Anyone remember Gomer Pyle - "Surprise, surprise, surprise!" Still, there is no comprehensive US energy policy out of Washington, DC. "
Fitzsimmons definitely reads TOD; echoing Darwinians bombshell comment regarding the inventory report and lifting WNC Observer's "As Gomer Pyle would have said, "Surprahse, surprahse, surprahse!" From yesterday.
Here in Texas it's possible that we are going to be experiencing the effects of the net export decline in a matter of days to weeks.
The 2007 Annual Net Export Decline Rates for Mexico & Venezuela (EIA) are as follows, and the recent monthly data don't look any better.
Mexico: -16%/year
Venezuela: -7.6%/year
It's usually hazardous to pay too much attention to short term data, but in the past few weeks total net imports into the US have been dropping like a rock, so last week's EIA data fit the very short term trend. I wonder how much of it is simply a falloff in oil exports from Venezuela and Mexico--and as Ron pointed out, it looks like almost all of the recent decline in US crude oil inventories has been on the Gulf Coast.
If this is the case, refiners on the Gulf Coast are going to have to bid the crude price up. One of the problems is the considerably more time that it takes to replace oil imports from Venezuela and Mexico with imports from other sources--because of the distances to other oil exporters. It's possible that we could see some problems with refined product volumes in the Gulf Coast area in the very near future.
We may see some calls to release oil from the SPR. The problem of course is using emergency reserves to offset a long term decline in oil exports from two key nearby oil exporters.
And, for the sake of a counter-argument, I'll re-iterate that the XoM force majeure of 800kbpd, due to industrial action in Nigeria at the end of last month, is the primary cause ( ie 80% or more ) of the hefty drop in imports into the Gulf Coast region over the past 2 weeks, leading to the hefty drop in crude inventory levels.
I don't think that the US is into SPR release territory just yet...it'll take a bad storm or two before that happens.
That said, the really fun stat is that the Bush administration added 150 million barrels to the SPR from Jan 2002 to August 2005 ( ie 44 months )- taking the level up to 700 million barrels; in the subsequent 33 months, the net level has increased by a measly 3 million barrels. If that ain't a tell of some sort.....
Is a Net Export Hurricane Hitting the Gulf Coast?
Well, boys and girls, I would call the following numbers a smoking gun:
From 10/07 to 3/08, net exports from Nigeria to the US dropped by 67,000 bpd.
From 10/07 to 3/08, net exports from Venezuela & Mexico to the US dropped by 414,000 bpd.
Also, I could be wrong, but I believe that most exports from Nigeria to the US go to the East Coast.
I betcha that combined net exports from Venezuela to Mexico to the US are now down by over 500,000 bpd from 10/07.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd...
Thanks WT.
Iraq coming on.
FF
Nobody could have predicted that 5 years after the invasion that Iraq would become the 6th biggest supplier of US crude oil imports, eh?
True. The numbers were anticipated to be much higher. Unfortunately for BuCheney, some Iraqis and a few other random Muslims took offense to the plan.
Cheers
And if we want to have more fun with stats, it appears that oil imports into the Gulf Coast are actually about 200-250kbpd higher over the past 4 weeks than in October last year....
We'll have a much better idea at the end of July, when the EIA publishes the May import sources data.
As regards the East Coast - the volume of crude imports is about 1/4 of that into the Gulf Coast, and I would guess that the baseline supply sources are Canada, North Sea and Algeria.
Well, here are the last four weeks of crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast:
6.683 mbpd
6.130
5.173
4.996
Not a promising trend. In any case, Venezuela is showing a long term net export decline, and Mexico is on track to be at zero within six years.
In October these two countries accounted for more than 20% of total US petroleum imports.
My God that's an amazing drop, that hasn't been reflected in the prices yet.
I just love a good hook. And since I live in the Hill Country and much closer to Mexico than you, I'm all ears as to what your imaginations of the effects could be.
PG asked me to write this up as a TOD article, and I just sent him the second draft. I suspect that it will be when, not if, that we hear calls for a release of oil from the SPR. Ironically enough, it would be the oil producing areas along the coast that would be hit the hardest.
On second thought, the areas hit the hardest would be at the end of the petroleum distribution pipelines from the Gulf Coast refineries.
Any data/info on distribution points from the Gulf refineries?
Well, trying to look for the answer, which I don't think I did...I did find out (finally!) for my own understanding, why prices for gas are always so high here in the Bay Area, California...even though we have quite a few refineries here.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2001/senate_t...
You guys would not be directly affected by a crude shortage on the Gulf Coast, but a disruption would cause price ripples throughout the system.
Regarding Venezuela & Mexico, it's really a simple process of connecting the dots. We have a sharp annual decline in net oil exports. We then can show a sharp drop in net exports specifically to the US, over a six month period from 10/07 to 3/08. We then have a sharp drop in crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast over the past four weeks.
A SPR release may be all but inevitable, but the problem is for how long, since we are facing a fundamental long term decline in net exports (certainly from Mexico, probably from Venezuela).
Looks like, from reading Dr. Cooks testimony (from 2001), that if we are unable to supply ourselves from the west coast refineries, we could see the ripple effect you are mentioning. Kind of interesting reading back in time...ahhh the good old days!
I emailed Dr Cook to see if he had a current assessment. I was surprised to get such a quick same day response:
Hello TODers,
My ISP just restored service, but for how long before it goes kaput again? I'll jump in quick:
Phx & Tucson are partially supplied by Kinder-Morgan pipelines coming from Texas.
I saw the guano posts upthread too--thxs
Glad to see F_F still tuned in. :)
BS AHSTY?
Construction of the Keystone pipeline got underway today:
"Up to 7,500 construction workers will take about 18 months to complete the first Keystone stage in 2010 for deliveries of 600,000 barrels per day to a ConocoPhillips refinery in Illinois and an Oklahoma oil trading hub at Cushing with connections to the company's Texas plants.
By early this summer, Becker said TransCanada hopes to secure oil shipping contracts that will prompt construction of a second, longer leg to take 750,000 barrels daily to Texas refineries clustered east of Houston around Port Arthur.
By reaching the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, Alberta production will compete directly with state-owned output from Venezuela and Mexico on a market for seven million barrels a day that is one of the world's biggest oil trading areas, Becker said."
When I was a kid, oil came *from* Texas. Times change and I just go with the flow.
Alberta of course is a big oil exporter, while Eastern Canada is a big oil importer. The net result last year was that net oil exports Canada fell at -1.3%/year. So, while Alberta will be delivering oil to the Gulf Coast, when the pipeline is finished, Eastern Canada will be competing for oil exports on the East Coast. Also, Mexico, which delivered 1.4 mbpd to the US in October, is on the fast track to zero net oil exports.
WT: Should be interesting when/if we run into shortages here in Ontario as everyone I know was under the misconception that we are getting our supply from Alberta-some can't even believe the facts when you tell them (the media here keeps it rather quiet).
Hi everyone,
I thought everyone here would appreciate a presentation I am going to be delivering on June 9 to my local City Council (Port Alberni, BC).
It's 15 minutes. I'd greatly appreciate any feedback you might have.
http://www.murkyview.com/archives/2008/05/28/peak-oil-presentation-to-ci...
It is a good presentation for people not familiar with the concept.
FWIW, I lived in Port Alberni from 1966-68 and worked at the AlPulp Mill (McMillian Bloedel). I loved the place and will probably retire on the island.
Best of luck with your presentation.
Fuel poverty action plan unveiled
Alistair Darling defends 'inadequate' fuel poverty plan
The BBC article reports that '£3m in existing funding for general energy efficiency schemes will be set aside to help low income families wanting to generate their own power through heat pumps.' I noticed that it doesn't seem to be new money and £3m probably won't go all that far (I don't know exactly how many heat pumps you can install for £3m!). There's also the privacy issue to consider.
'Fuel poverty' is often said to be a particular problem for the elderly and with the number of pensioners growing, I can't see this issue going away any time soon.
£3,000,000 -
That might be 1000 or so heat pumps.
Out of 24million homes in this country.
And this is after the Government allowed the utilities to raise rates for low users differentially more, with some raising prices by up to 70%, penalising the poor, the old living alone, and people who conserve.
Breathtaking cynicism from a corrupt and incompetent regime.
To put it in context MPs are going for a £23k payment per year as if they have to forgo the expenses they were fiddling.
For the 646 members of the House that comes to £14,856,000
New money, not taken from somewhere else.
This shows our Governing classes to perfection.
There seem to be some problems with electrical supply/price in Texas. It is in the WSJ, but I haven't been able to find a free version of the article yet.
Sharp Power-Price Rise Hits Texas
The Economist has an article on the oil situation. Their take on the situation seems to be above ground factors and reduced demand due to higher prices.
Double, double, oil and trouble: Is it “peak oil” or a speculative bubble? Neither, really
The Economist should be happy in the next few years-the growth in global consumption will be non-existent-they can blame it on everything but lack of supply of product-can't be that because all economists know that a higher price means more supply (ECON 101).
If all economists were laid end to end there would not be enough of them to reach consensus.
...or...as Harry Truman said 'What I want most is an economist with one hand'...
What We\'ll Drive in 2010
Car shoppers in 2010 will have lighter wallets.
And here's what we'll drive in 2015
http://info.detnews.com/edittoons/payne.cfm?start=32
Sapphire Energy turns algae into \'green crude\' for fuel
Let's continue the bullshit:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3492378.ece
1 less day of work for Gove Co. officials
Gove County is in Kansas.
I'm so envious. I sure hope this idea spreads. I waste an hour and a half each day on my commute. I'd love to have an extra hour and a half each week.
On a side note, I felt so guilty about driving alone(even though I run on home brewed biodiesel), that I picked up a ride share person. She adds 20 minutes to my commute, but I feel much better driving on the 6 lane highway with a passenger and my bike strapped to the back of my car. I bike the last 2 1/2 miles to work, but that's mostly to save on the $10 a day parking and the fact that I compete in triathlons so I need all the training I can get.
I have observed little or no less traffic than last year. Still bumper to bumper and 25 MPH on the 6 lanes of traffic. 95% of cars with only one occupant. My car has me and a pretty blond next to me!
So...the 4 guys in orange vests leaning on their shovels watching one guy slowly fill a pot hole will have an extra day off each week to hitch up the 250hp bass boat to the 3 ton pickemup and drive to the lake to guzzle beer? What a great idea!
Maybe we have discovered the answer to the book title 'Whats the Matter With Kansas?'.
They're thinking that way in Oakland County MI.
If everyone stayed home sure it works but summer might actually arrive and there's still plenty of boats, RV's and vacation homes to get to.
Hey all...tis the season (well supposed to start tomorrow...but why not get an early start)
NOAA predicted track - ALMA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?5day#contents
***Note the approach to the Canatrell field (and onshore Mexican fields/facilities) - only as a depression but still worth watching.
Jeff Master's analysis
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
I'm on the run...maybe someone can post the track graphic.
Yay! It dissipated!!!
Let's hope it didn't interact with the Low in the Gulf of Honduras and off Jamaica.
But, Navy "invested" the Low in the GOH/off Jamaica as 90L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=05&BASIN=ATL...
Australian, Chinese researchers make breakthrough in renewable energy materials
here's the link
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90781/90879/6420910.html
why is everything always 5-10 years off, and we never hear of it again?
It's great you post these, although I guess many here follow the tech/science news as well.
Could you consider adding the following to your news radar:
Breakthroughs in:
cabling, solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps and other energy saving technologies
I'm not just talking in jest or trying to be a smart-alec.
It's just that we need most of the above, in addition to the tech/sci breakthroughs.
Breakthroughs are NOT energy. Once we harness the innovations, by funding, manufacturing, distributing, hooking up to the infrastructure and doing this all in this mass scale. Then we have the results.
Otherwise it's just paper. Happy news to keep us distracted.
We need actions from the industry/politicians. Not informercials about all the cool energy tech that we 'could take into use really rapidly, if we really wanted'.
Sorry, this is not directed against you, but our path dependent and energy system locked-in decision makers.
Eh??? Antidoomer isn't a person. He is my brainwave controlled monkey techno link drop webcrawler-bot I have hooked up to my pc!!
I think we ought to keep the personal insults to a minimum. IMHO, they contribute nothing to the conversation.
Alan
Apologies - it was taking humour a bit too far. Antidoomer you need to qualify the stuff you post here a bit more please. As was stated by another poster on this thread, I too like your links, but usually it's stuff we are well aware of, both it's possibilities and it's shortcomings.
If there are any technofixes to be had lets discuss the pros and cons. BUT.... dear Antidoomer you throw them down with no discussion or comment from yourself. We say "yes but this is the problem with x,y,z" and Antidoomer, you say "ah but your point x,y,z...etc....etc.....logical argument....etc..
Marco.
Yeah antidoomer, what they said! Straighten up and fly right!...and, while you are condidering some more doomerish posts maybe you can look around for a pretty blonde to sit next to you while you drive/carpool to work...Perhaps one that doesnt talk a lot.
Once, back in the first energy crisis, I ran an add in WaPo for a person to share my ride into DC daily. Sure enough a pretty blonde came by my office and we chatted about our office hours, home locations etc. Actually we didnt chat for she was a mute and scribbled notes while I chatted. It worked out perfect for us except Howard Stern was on local DC radio in the mornings back then and she couldnt laugh at the punch lines. She carried a stack of 3/5 inch cards with all sorts of stock lines printed on them...One of the cards said HA, HA, HA on it.
If you dont get lucky and find a pretty blonde to carpool with you can always get a blow up doll to sit in the seat beside you...or a femaleaquin. This will allow you to use the carpool lane...untill you get caught.
If in DC metro pick up a slug. About Slugging and Slug Lines.
Not until he stops the drive-by junk posting.
People waste lots of bandwith shooting holes in his links.
If there's one thing I can't stand it is False Hopes built upon Wishful Thinking ... which is all the AD offers.
He sure has taken his shots at WT and JHK.
By the way when did YOU get religion?
The Massachusetts legislative hearing on energy cost and scarcity has been re-scheduled to Tuesday, June 3 at 1pm. Here's the update:
RUNNING ON EMPTY: MASSACHUSETTS FACES RECORD ENERGY COSTS
POST AUDIT TO HOLD OVERSIGHT HEARING ON FUEL PRICES AND THE STATE'S RESPONSE
Committee to Review Impact on Consumers and State Planning
On Tuesday June 3rd at 1:00, pm the Senate Committee on Post Audit and Oversight will conduct an oversight hearing relative to the impact on consumers of high fuel prices and the state's plans to address the issue.
Requested testimony includes the Department of Public Utilities, Division of Energy Resources, National Consumer Law Center, Conservation Law Foundation, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Congressman Edward J. Markey, Chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
WHAT: The Senate Committee on Post Audit and Oversight will conduct a hearing relative to the impact on consumers of high fuel prices and the state's plans to address the issue.
WHEN: Tuesday, June 3, 2008, at 1:00 pm
WHERE: A -1 Hearing Room, State House (Boston)
Contact info:
Kate Garrett (Catherine B. Garrett, Esq.)
General Counsel
Senate Committee on Post Audit and Oversight
Senate Committee on Global Warming and Climate Change
Office of Senator Marc R Pacheco
State House, Room 312B
Boston, MA 02133
(617) 722-1551
- Dick Lawrence, ASPO-USA
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Thanks a lot!
Thanks again for a good news update! Some more, perhaps of interest, probably already posted (you are just way too good):
Is the Peak oil theory valid
Geopolitics of Crude oil
Oil production outstripping demand: Opec
Oil expert says 3 countries control prices
So we have identified the boogey-man. We have the nukes. We know what to do.
This incredible B/S artist relies upon the ignorance of his audience-there isn't enough oil globally to fill the demand at $77 a barrel.
Which BS artist were you referring to? Qabazard?
I've been wondering about the AOPEC leaders who keep telling (KSA, UAE, Qatar, etc) that the markets are supplied well enough and the price is all speculation.
If they're lying (and I'm not saying they aren't) they are doing it in almost perfect unison.
Personally the production/supply data speaks for itself.
Which is a second point that really baffles me: why do all the journos not look at the raw data? Why do they go and ask people who have a vested interested in the issue and are almost guaranteed to lie if the situation is dire?
It's as if they want to hear the lies and afraid they will find out something if they do their jobs - like a journalist should do (you know, research and stuff).
The mind boggles.
I guess that you may never have met a journalist major in college. Generally, not the top-notch students. But, having met some journalists, that alone answers most of your questions. [My personal opinion.]
Inny, Minny, Miny, Mo nuke a country in the toe....
Before November if Obama is winning :)
So many choices so little time.
Not a smart idea to nuke Russia.
Jubak on oil stocks:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/TheEndOfThe...
RE the article on coal and carbon sequestration. One of a growing number of classic examples of a technology that is relatively straightforward in the lab (or in some guy's garage) but does not scale, for a wide variety of reasons.
Technically feasible, politically desirable, desired by industry, all the pieces in place...right?
We have the technical and human side, what do we call the other side; perhaps the 'logistical?'
Henry Blodget and Aaron Task. Well worth watching!!
Here's a link to the article (from which this video comes, that links to us in the last sentence). Go wave the TOD flag!
Good video-interesting how reality is accepted once the WSJ says OK-congrats to Blodget on staying out of jail.
This is so funny.
The same guys who were laughing at "peak oil theorists" are now talking about the fundamentals as if they've found them out themselves.
Schöpenhauer was indeed right.
Riders' bus pain may not be over
This is one of those things that is toughest about the problem. Municipalities will be increasingly stretched financially, making it ever harder to maintain transit systems..
A good example of why gas prices alone will not kill the car culture-that $1.60 will take you 8 miles in a 20 mpg vehicle-and riding the bus is no treat.
I think the important question is: WHY is operating the bus so expensive? You'd think it would be cheaper, per passenger mile, than a single-occupancy car? I can think of several reasons:
* the drivers are paid a lot
* the bus is mostly empty, at least at some times and along some parts of the route
* the bus idles a lot
* the bus is designed with few seats relative to its total weight - I see that around here - in part that has to do with equipping every bus to accomodate wheelchairs
* the transit system carries very high insurance coverages
These obstacles can be overcome via changes in the size of a bus (think jitneys), laws, attitudes or the economy.
I don't know the situation in the US, but in the UK it's worth bearing in mind that the cost of the bus ticket is the only cost you pay, whereas car owners pay fuel costs and also vehicle taxation, vehicle maintenance and repair, vehicle insurance and parking charges (and theoretically the financial difference between the costs you pay on your car loan vs how you buy bus tickets/passes). Basically, any money you pay in connection with your car should be included, even though it's frequently in small chunks that slip the mind. That's not to say buses aren't currently still more expensive than cars overall (and we should structure things to make them cheaper), but cars look particularly good because people generally don't add in all the costs.
The thing is, is you own a car and you only drive it around an urban area, gas costs are peanuts-yes, there are other costs, but those existed when oil was $10 a barrel. $10 a gallon is nothing when you are driving 4000 miles a year at 25 mpg ($1600).
Or 1,800 miles at 30 mpg.
Best Hopes for Old Mercedes Diesels,
Alan
The other thing is, you pay most of those other costs just for having the car, whether you use it or not. And most people who can manage it will want to have a car even if they don't absolutely need it to get to work, because the alternative is often to become pretty much a hermit. Transit systems often don't operate usefully at night or on weekends, e.g. for family visits, coming home from the childrens' soccer games, etc.; and they're next to useless if you're carrying the sheer amount of stuff people with babies or toddlers tend to bring along.
And I do suspect that if one adds in all costs, the bus will be about as expensive as the car, but a lot more time-consuming. The fare in the USA only reflects one-third or one-fourth of just the "operating" cost, with the taxpayer picking up the capital cost (which a car driver pays) and also picking up the cost of the roads the bus operates on (a car driver pays part of the road cost) as the bus fuel does not normally incur road tax.
To judge from some of the posts in the last few days, the previously endless money-pot that makes bus service practically free for the passenger is running low and services are being cut just when more are actually needed. The ability to massively subsidize the transport sector - cars, trucks, and buses - which is undesirable as it mightily encourages gross overuse - might just be on the wane. Once there is little choice but to have people pay for what they use, some harsh realities may set in, and they will not entirely favor bus passengers.
The bottom line is, contrary to the wishes of some transit advocates, high gas prices will do very little to alleviate urban traffic congestion-what they will do is make the long daily commute very expensive and uncommon.
The point I was making was that, considering the costs that actually differ depending on whether I have a car or take the bus (and buses have big subsidies, but there's no way for me to avoid paying that proportion of my taxes that pay those subsidies), people often forget to include the numerous non-fuel payments on their cars. I said that even including those costs cars are currently significantly cheaper than buses if you do a lot of travelling, just pointing out that the poster only considering fuel costs for cars is financially incorrect.
Personally I think the biggest factor in people use for having a car is emotional: it's my car, so I'm completely in control of everything about it. I'd expect that emotional impact to be able to offset quite high financial cost relative to public transport (if that ever happens). "You can pry my car keys from my cold, dead fingers!"
Emb: I assume you are talking about insurance, because if you drive 4000 miles per annum your vehicle should easily be good for 15 years, lowering your capital costs substantially.
...and there's no way to get rid of the fixed costs of the car except to get rid of the car altogether and become a hermit, so people almost-correctly assess it by the visible marginal cost, which is the fuel. Probably they 'should' throw in something for repairs, but little else varies much with mileage. And even maintenance is only partially variable - if you don't drive it much, it rusts and deteriorates away anyhow, especially in northern climates with huge temperature swings (the multitudinous hugely expensive-to-replace electronic whizbangs don't 'like' those at all) and winter road de-icing.
And there is a way to avoid paying at least a good chunk of the bus/train subsidy. Move out of the city. Which is precisely what people have been doing for decades, and even in Europe to a degree. There seems to be a view among urban planner types that raising taxes without limit doesn't put people on the move, but in the USA it has helped shift people and the businesses they work at into the suburbs and beyond. (Maybe some Europeans don't care a fig how much tax they pay?) Who needs to pay 8.4% sales tax, a heavy city income tax, and a huge array of nuisance taxes to live in New York City when there is a whole enormous country to choose from?
No, those subsidies aren't free, and people react disproportionately against them because they vacuum out one's own wallet for something that is of no benefit but to the rare few who just happen to both live and work in precisely the right spots. This is very widely resented (though possibly not amongst typical TOD posters, who are an atypical sample.) Hence precious few grassroots voters are particularly upset over, say, the strange affair with the Dulles airport line; and widespread service cuts are now going on in the very face of rising demand.
Paul: Your posts are very useful-I think TOD readers need to be reminded what country Americans are actually living in-a lot of the posts talk as if the USA is just left of Sweden.
Scratch Oil For Now – Gold and Alternative Energies Will Outperform Near-term
...absolutely greatest potential to turn the entire automotive industry on its ear is a little company based in Cedar Park, Texas, called EEStor. The company makes a battery alternative...
This is not news. We discussed it way back in January. They don't appear to "make" a battery alternative. They only appear to hype a hypothetical battery alternative.
It may well be another perpetually receding horizon. Pie in the sky twenty years by and by, if ever.
Truly, I think the news hook with stuff like this is the romantic David vs. Goliath meme of the little guy coming in and seeing what the billionaires didn't, nyah, nyah, nyah. And who knows, if we get a million of these, maybe one will pan out.
This is, like, the 50th EEstor link you've posted. Enough, already.
Hey Totonelia!
From a PRWatch.org Weekly Spin mailing, referencing a May 22 'The Nation' mag. article:
"In early April, the global oil company Chevron announced that it has entered into a five-year deal with the foundation created by the professional golfer, Tiger Woods."
Has Tiger, with his obscenely large latest house, and PR enabling of Chevron, disillusioned you yet of your hope that he'll do anything worthwhile? Our celebrity culture is sick and embarassing. He makes me want to puke. With all the resources these mega-wealthy celeb's have, is it not too much to think they won't be selfish pigs??
And yes, he has set up a foundation of some sort, but look at how he's living and what he's spending his money on.
The 'Weekly Spin' from PRWatch is really good. This edition has articles about coal front-groups, Alberta oil-sands PR stuff, and of course, Tiger.
You both will love this then. Saw it a few days ago, looks like a link to the radio report on NPR:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90841021
So Tiger (and his mansion) is sucking down 10k gallons of clean floridian aquifer water PER DAY!
Personally I use between 3-5k GPMonth but that is w/o an irrigation system so I can understanding using more if you did have one. Personally I can see the day coming where such behavior might justify the aquisition of torches and pitchforks (or at least tar and feathers).
Why do you need irrigation in Florida???
Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Houston sure. But the only reason you needed irrigation in Los Angeles is because you wanted the kind of yard that people in Connecticut have.
Sadly, to keep the non native preferred sod alive down here.
We do have a dry season, but a lot of Florida got along just fine without supplemental irrigation in the past.
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2007/112007/mokhiber.html
Obviously a false conviction, as there are no conspiracies.
Does anyone know of a reputable solar installer in Central PA for residential use? I found one guy but he hasn't sent me his proposal for several weeks.
Hey, Mr. AdaptiveSystems,
This is a Lawrence Berkeley Lab Government site I just learned about. It has a section on 'Find a solar technician' near you.
Check it out...
http://hes.lbl.gov/hes/
I am fully of the opinion that Lehman Bros, Goldman Sachs, CERA, etc, etc, don't know what the hell they are talking about and are just throwing darts at a board and wishing upon a star for some more $$$.
I totally agree. These people live in a virtual world, not the actual world. This is called "economics". A crock of s**t.
Goldman Sachs has a history of making accurate oil price forecasts:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR200805...
According to the article linked to above, G.S. was right in five out of five oil price predictions.
Unless one deals to reverse declines in net exports available on the world market, one does little to stop "oil speculation." The popularity of oil amongst consumers is very high. It has gained much higher usage popularity than ethanol in spite of government programs to prop up ethanol. Ethanol is a straw man. If oil were not popular in all the world, it would reach a bubble point and become like so much low grade wheat chaff.
"Still, last December, when Goldman Sachs raised its outlook for 2008 crude oil prices to $95 a barrel, it seemed like a stretch."
They just up the forecast when it goes higher and people pay money for this crap, amazing.
Not sure about Lehman, but if you had bet on CERA you would have lost a bundle.
If you had put your money according to Goldman Sachs you would have made a lot of money.
I know who I would have preferred to follow - perhaps they play really good darts! :-0
Oil price profiteering to be curbed at ICE Futures Europe and Nymex
After US attack over oil price, traders and commodity exchanges fight back
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
I don't have a problem with people buying futures (whether you call them investors or speculators). If it is true the market system works, then that's how it should operate.
The real problem is people borrowing money to make investments aka speculate. This distorts the market, and is the common factor in other cases where inflated prices collapse. While borrowing money remains legal, it would be hard to eliminate speculation, but whatever can be done to reduce or discourage debt-funded investment seems like a good idea.
Well, every Tom, Dick, and Harry has been borrowing money to speculate in houses for many decades now. It's called a 'home' mortgage. They speculate that it will be a 'better' or 'safer' investment than something else, "safe as houses" as they say in England.
So why should people be not only allowed, but almost required, to borrow money to speculate in houses, which are a vital commodity, but forbidden to speculate in, say, oil or corn, which are likewise vital commodities? (Clearly, in both cases, one wants some minimum margin requirements, but then again, commodity speculators still put up a little bit, while house speculators often put up a negative amount, they have less than no skin in the game.)
I love the way Americans always want to have it both ways at the expense of Russell Long's guy behind the tree. They're forever happy to take massive and entirely unearned profits, as they did until a few months ago on houses, but, oh the whining and whingeing the instant anyone else receives a profit.
Virginia: Gov. Kaine issues order to allow 'half-pricing' at gas pumps
Excellent! We now have a geometric currency unit!
Place your bets on when we move from 2 Kaine territory and up to 3 Kaines and $8/gal!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
Anyone else read Charles Hugh-Smith's website?
How Will Gas Prices affect the Blue Collar/Poor?
I'm just sure this has already been posted but can't find it:
Gridlock led 27 pct of drivers to abandon trips
Commuter driving sucks up hundreds of millions of hours of human CPU time a year, just belching garbage into the air and killing people. If 75 million people commute for 30 minutes a day, that's something like 12 billion human CPU hours wasted just in the US.