Hi Eugenio,

Thanks for your post. I'm curious- what happened (WRT your plan) after your presentation?

Did you attempt to have your plan adopted? If so, what steps did you take and how was this received?

Or, did anyone contact you about it?

Was there a gap at implementation? And, if so, how do you suppose this might be overcome?

I only have a little bit of outdated information, based on someone I knew involved with Russian fertilizer exports from Kaliningrad in the mid-1990s. A very much cash based business, if you understand what is meant behind the polite term 'cash.'

And that information is, that if you are looking for hard numbers from a major world fertilizer producer and exporter, forget it. The business was (and likely still is) remarkably opaque, in part because the customers are countries which find trading with Russia about their only alternative (Bulgaria, for example), or are simply desperate for fertilizer, like China, and in both cases, their numbers are equally opaque.

Another reason, perhaps surprisingly, is that much of the fertilizer he was involved in exporting was essentially not used in Germany (at least according to him) - he talked about how German customs was utterly uninterested in the sacks of it he used to carry back to Germany in his car - including ammonium nitrate. It wasn't illegal, it was simply not used, and thus had no value in the eyes of the customs agents.

At least in Germany, fertilizer use is not encouraged. Noted, for example in this passage -
'In Germany, legislation rules many environmental aspects of agricultural plant production, and special laws are in force concerning fertilizer use, soil protection, and pesticide use. In sugar beet, nitrogen fertilizer use has decreased greatly and may be reduced further in some regions. A further reduction of potassium and phosphorus fertilizer use does not seem to be appropriate.'
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=15044219

Admittedly, Germany is not typical, but I'm not sure that that fertilizer production has been offshored as much as it has been downsized.

Which would fit into the typical German style of handling future resource restraints - seeking substitutes while reducing use. Much like home insulation standards to reduce the need for gas for heating.

These are not crash programs, by any means, but they at least tend in the right direction.

Of course, France is often at the other end of this spectrum, so it may all balance out in the larger view.

Euan,
This is very good stuff. I am very concerned about the effects of Peak Gas on the UK.

Two questions:

1. How much energy goes into liquefying the LNG and how much of this is wasted? I ask because it presumably increases the overall CO2 emissions associated with natural gas use (although no doubt for 'official' accounting purposes, the LNG liquefaction counts in the CO2 emissions for Qatar, etc., rather than in the UK).

2. We can no doubt look forward to higher gas prices and more volatile ones. What concerns me is that the volatility will make it very difficult to plan finance for future gas-fired electricity generation. I'm no so worried about straight CCGT baseload generation as more esoteric gas CHP with heat storage that could be used as a flexible complement to variable wind, tide and wave electricity. So will future gas prices be so volatile that no-one will touch gas as a fuel with a bargepole?

Myself, I can't help feeling that the UK should be emulating the German programme of insulating the buildings stock as quickly as possible (and adopting Danish style CHP) before the gas price gets horrific (and the whole population is cast into Fuel Poverty).

Note: By my calcs, it will require about a cubic kilometre of insulation to make a good job on the UK building stock, so we'd better ramp up insulation production asap.

BobE

Euan, have you heard anything regarding the reliability of the North Field reserve estimate. I remember Qatar put a hold on new LNG prospects for a bit and there was discussion that it might be because the field is smaller than estimated. But I have not seen anything more about it. Thoughts?

LNG supplies from Qatar are included in the above.

Thanks for this piece Euan.

When you add political factors such as for instance how Britain is currently at odds with Russia diplomatically, we might find ourselves further down the supply chain than we might like.

Also I do wonder if, when it becomes more widely appreciated that this energy crunch is not a temporary one that priorities for gas supplies within the UK might change. If domestic customers are given priority then industry may collapse faster than it otherwise would, consequently our ability as a nation to purchase further, increasingly more expensive fuel supplies may reduce more rapidly.

Euan,

Good article.

Glad to hear that you are swapping toa condensing boiler and a woodstove, in order to reduce your exposure to volatile natural gas prices.

This is the route I followed starting with a new condensing boiler in 2005, and a woodstove/boiler installed in the old fireplace, when vacated by the old inefficient gas back boiler.

Four tips ( to save you loads of money and improve system efficiency)

1. Select a condensing boiler to suit your property. Don't be fooled into buying a 24kW model, when your house only needs 6kW to keep it cosy.

2. Turn down the output water temperature control on your condensing boiler to about mid-way. Water returned at too hot a temperature will not allow the boiler to run in its efficient condensing mode.

3. Link the woodstove to the gas boiler with a System Link ( google them - based in Dublin). A fraction of the cost of the equivalent Dunsley Baker neutraliser.

4. Fluestore dot com is the cheapest source in the UK for the approved woodstove flue liners.

2020

Its not just the boiler, its how it gets used. My horrible 73% efficient back boiler has a flue that passes up through the house. When the exhaust gases pass out of the chimney at the top they are cold, so much of the 27% of the so called lost heat probably ends up in the house anyway.
many combi boilers cycle when the hot tap is turned on as well. Hot water is not needed for handwashing. My boiler is only on in the day in very cold weather, the residual luke warm water in the tank from the night before (after the wife and kids have drained the tank)does for hand washing, so no boiler and no gas required. Cavity wall insulation suprised me on how effective it was after I had it done.
I'm not anti condensing boilers, but they have gone the way of new cars in that you hand your self over to the technology that controls them. My back boiler has a piezo crystal ignitor and a gas valve and has so far lasted 22 years without a single fault, the cast iron heat exchanger is as good as new.
We all live in a luxury that is simply not required. The solution is big jumpers and learning to knit again.
It a bit Jevons' Paradox(ish) that if you install something that is more efficient, you become more relaxed about how you use it. When I got my first diesel car, going from 33 to 50 plus mpg, a guy told me I would just do more miles, its true. The only answer is rationing, how you waste your ration is up to you.

La plus ca change...

In the old days people used to take their bread to the baker, to be cooked in the big ovens there.
Many, when they ate at all, would eat in a chop house, as they had no cooking facilities at home.

I suspect that in a modern kitchen most will just microwave more, although other alternatives could come forward, as an open cooker is a pretty inefficient alternative - a heavily insulated pressure cooker with a built-in electric element or a slow cooker built in the same way should be several times as efficient as present arrangements.

The heat form a fridge is also currently wasted, and cold presumably be utilised either for hot water or, perhaps, cooking.

Talking of housing.

Government's secret fears over housing market exposed by minister gaffe

Gordon Brown’s housing minister exposed the Government's fears over the falling housing market today when she accidentally left in view a top-secret report as she walked into No 10.

Caroline Flint’s briefing note conceded that house prices would fall by 5 to 10 per cent “at best” this year and that “we can’t know how bad it will get”.

The detailed document carried into Downing Street for the weekly Cabinet session admitted that home building was also “stalling”, in a bleak assessment of UK economic prospects.

Shouldn't that be 'socked and poor'? :-)

The UK's ability to out bid other nations while we have a falling currency is one thing that concerns me.

Hi Euan,
I was in Turin but let me ask you some addictional questions now:
- what do you think about central asia former soviet republics gas production, could they contrast the decline of major russian fields and for how long?
- you did not cover a new gas scenario for Europe, far but not impossible to realize: as far the Nabucco pipeline and the Balkan-Otranto pipeline can be feeded with russian gas from south stream, they could be also esily connected to Turkish pipelines. Iran yet sells some natural gas to Turkey and could increase exports to Europe via Turkey. What do you think about giant iranian South Phars gas field? Could gulf natural gas imported by pipeline via Turkey be a feasible solution to avoid the gas crunch (not only iranian but also Qatar)?
- I knew about prospections in the Indian Ocean for a pipeline from Iran to India and Pakistan so a variation to the previous scenario could be a race to connect to middle east gas fields for first. Not everyone trust in LNG market...

Regards
Eugenio

Thanks.

Doesn't look like that much energy, after all.

I'm struck by the increased efficiency of just covering pots...