DrumBeat: February 24, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 24, 2008 - 8:39am
Topic: Miscellaneous
High oil prices take a toll on the middle class in the Middle East
AMMAN: Even as it enriches Arab rulers, the recent oil-price boom is helping to propel an extraordinary rise in the cost of food and other basic goods that is squeezing this region's middle class and setting off strikes, demonstrations and occasional riots from Morocco to the Gulf.In Jordan, the soaring price of oil led the government to remove almost all its costly fuel subsidies this month, pushing the price of some fuels up 76 percent overnight. In a devastating domino effect, the cost of basic foods like eggs, potatoes and cucumbers doubled or more.
In Saudi Arabia, where the inflation rate had been virtually zero for a decade, it has reached an official level of 6.5 percent, though unofficial estimates put it much higher. Public protests and boycotts have followed, and 19 prominent clerics posted an unusual statement on the Internet in December warning of a crisis that would cause "theft, cheating, armed robbery and resentment between rich and poor."
Beware 'First Colonization' - Steer the Chinese from suburban, driving culture
Polling conducted by Rice University's Shell Center for Sustainability's Coastal Cities project shows that almost as high a percentage of Chinese urbanites from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin are as worried about traffic congestion, air pollution and quality of schools as Houstonians.This "First Colonization" of China has huge implications for global energy markets. Already, Chinese oil demand has risen from 116 million tons in 1990 to 327 million tons in 2005.
Energy policy: We won't get there by tinkering
Clinton backs the creation of a $50 billion energy fund to support investments in alternative energy. She also supports adding 100,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to the federal fleet by 2015 and $2 billion in research and development to reduce the cost and improve the longevity and durability of batteries. I like that.Plug-in hybrids are a building block to a transition to a more fuel-diversified transportation sector — one that could be weaned off carbon-based fuels (read Middle East supply) over time as we improve our electricity network. Imagine: Hugo Chavez cuts off the oil we need to fuel our cars and instead of standing in long gasoline lines and cursing our government and Big Oil, we simply opt to charge up by plugging in our cars at home.
Energy policy: Environment merits attention
If an energy surprise awaits, perhaps it will take shape in a new administration that breaks with tradition and forcefully commits to building energy policy around substantive environmental issues. In 2008, it is no longer possible to deny that finding, producing and exploiting fossil fuels is inextricably linked with the environmental health of our planet and ourselves.
Mexican leftist back on streets in oil protest
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Eighteen months after he crippled the capital with protests over a 2006 election defeat, Mexican leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was back on the street on Sunday to protect the state monopoly on oil.
A new era for railroads as companies expand
For decades, railroads spent little on expansion, even tore up surplus track and shrank routes. But since 2000 they’ve spent $10 billion to expand tracks, build freight yards and buy locomotives, and they have $12 billion more in upgrades planned.
Putin’s Iron Grip on Russia Suffocates His Opponents
NIZHNY NOVGOROD, Russia — Shortly before parliamentary elections in December, foremen fanned out across the sprawling GAZ vehicle factory here, pulling aside assembly-line workers and giving them an order: vote for President Vladimir V. Putin’s party or else. They were instructed to phone in after they left their polling places. Names would be tallied, defiance punished.
In City Waters, Beds (and a Job) for Oysters
Scientists in the last several decades have developed a better understanding of the ability of oysters to filter water. As an adult oyster feeds, it can filter 5 to 50 gallons of water a day, depending on its size and the temperature of the water.During this process, it absorbs nitrogen, algae and bacteria, depositing them in the sediment at the water’s bottom. The oyster beds also serve as the foundation for an ecosystem that can support other marine species, like eelgrass, which in turn absorb other waste materials and provide habitats for fish.
10 things the nation must do to avert an energy crunch (and protect the planet)
THE price of crude oil has topped $100 a barrel and could go higher. Rising demand for oil in India and China, combined with global bottlenecks in production and refining, could cause an energy crunch with the potential to disrupt economies and place public safety at risk.At the same time, the burning of carbon-rich fossil fuels is creating greenhouse gases and causing temperatures and sea levels to rise. The United States is the world’s largest energy consumer and producer of greenhouse gases and must lead the way in the search for alternative sources of energy.
The following is a list of 10 steps the United States must take in order to avert an energy shortage and protect the environment.
OPEC President Khelil Expects Oil Demand to Decline
(Bloomberg) -- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries President Chakib Khelil said he expects oil demand to decrease in the second quarter and that the group may agree to cut production at its next meeting."We don't expect to put more oil in the market," Khelil told reporters in Algiers today. Inventories are "very high and international demand is expected to decrease in the second quarter. OPEC is going either to keep production or reduce it."
Venezuela considered swap in Exxon dispute
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela offered to resolve its nationalization dispute with U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil by withdrawing from its stake in the Chalmette refinery, a top energy official told local media in comments reported on Sunday.
Boom and bust may be a relic of Houston's past
What if today's peak oil prognosticators are right, and there will be no significant tapering of demand or growth in supply? And if that's true, what does it mean for a city whose fortunes have always been linked to a price graph and the whims of traders who traffic in black gold?
Imagine a world that's energy-rich: Storing electricity locally was late Nobelist's dream
The late Dr. Richard E. Smalley was a Nobel Laureate and professor of chemistry at Rice University. His Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in 1996 for the discovery of a new form of carbon, buckminsterfullerene ("buckyballs") with Robert Curl, also a professor of chemistry at Rice, and Harold Kroto, a professor at the University of Sussex in England. At the time of his death in October 2005, Smalley was focused on finding solutions to the global energy problem. The article below is a summation of Smalley's thoughts on an energy solution excerpted by his colleague, Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice's Baker Institute.
Federal funds for roads fading fast
WASHINGTON – The federal Highway Trust Fund is expected to run out of money next year, and transportation officials across Washington state, already feeling the squeeze from deteriorating roads, highways and bridges, are scrambling to deal with the possible fallout....The bulk of funding for the federal Highway Trust Fund comes from the 18.4 cents-per-gallon federal gasoline tax. But revenues from the tax have flattened out, likely because people are driving less due to the price of gas and because cars have become more fuel efficient in the 14 years since the federal gas tax was last increased.
Australia: Lack of parking puts train users on road
A CRITICAL shortage of commuter car parking is forcing thousands of would-be train users on to the roads adding to Sydney's already chronic congestion, an NRMA report says.More than 40 per cent of motorists who otherwise drive all the way to work would rather park at a station and commute if there were an adequate number of parking spots at the station.
Australia: Government's 50c slug on petrol
THE country's biggest fuel refiner, Caltex, says the Federal Government is getting about 50c on every litre of petrol sold to motorists.Caltex yesterday revealed for the first time who gets what from petrol that goes through the pumps at service stations.
Managing director Des King told BusinessDaily: "We haven't announced this before, but we make an average of 1.5 on every litre of petrol after all costs, whereas the government makes 50.
OPEC vis-à-vis $100 per barrel
Crude oil prices were up again last week, reaching the $100 level, which it had attained at the beginning of the year despite the gradual decline to the $86 mark. Why are oil prices up again?
Ryan’s oil security review will cost government €224,000
Energy minister Eamon Ryan is spending almost a quarter of a million euro on a review of the security of Ireland’s oil supplies, which will include assessing the possibility of constructing an oil pipeline to Britain or continental Europe.
Lula Says Investment to Resolve Bolivia Gas Impasse
(Bloomberg) -- A revival of investments in Bolivia, home to South America's second-largest natural gas reserves, will ease a regional shortage of the fuel in the "medium term," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.
Nepali gov't given 15-day ultimatum to end load-shedding crisis
KATHMANDU (Xinhua) -- The recently formed Consumers' Struggle Committee has given a 15-day ultimatum to the Nepali government to end the persisting problems of load-shedding, crisis of petroleum and cooking gas, The Himalayan Times reported on Sunday.
Nepal: Supply committee decides to enforce odd-even rule to address fuel shortage
The meeting of the Supply Management Committee of the government, Saturday, decided to enforce odd-even rule beginning Monday to deal with the acute shortage of petroleum products.The committee decided that odd-numbered vehicles (registration number) can obtain fuel only on odd days while even-numbered vehicles can obtain fuel on even days (Monday, Wednesday, Friday).
Chiles: Energy research gets low priority
During a humorous presentation that earned him a standing ovation, Springfield City Councilman Dan Chiles noted the Bush administration has spent astronomically on the Iraq war while spending only a pittance on research and development of new energy.
Also, consider that during the early part of the last century, as the state poured more and more state and federal money into constructing and maintaining better highways, the love affair with the automobile began to blossom. The once popular trolley — in 1902, there were 987 traction companies throughout the nation with a capacity of 4.8 billion passengers — fell out of favor. Reduced ridership along with the fact that government regulations prevented privately run trolleys from raising their fares above a nickel spelled the demise of the once popular mode of mass transit.
Ethanol plants could trigger new water-use laws
Missouri's rush to expand ethanol production may end up rewriting the state's water-use laws.At least that's what a group of Webster County residents believes will happen as their lawsuit against an ethanol project near Fordland moves through the courts.
Folding green: the investment boom
Money is pouring into the clean energy sector, which includes renewable forms of electricity generation such as wind, biomass and solar as well as companies involved in energy efficiency and waste treatment. According to research firm New Energy Finance, investment in the sector increased globally by 41 per cent last year to $117bn (£59bn), just over half of which went on new projects.
Colorado residents fight uranium mine
Jean Hediger can stand at the edge of her organic wheat farm and look west to the Rockies, east toward this speck-in-the-road town and straight ahead into what she sees as her worst nightmare.A Canadian company's plans to establish a uranium mine just across the two-lane county road from Hediger's farm has triggered a bitter tug-of-war with residents of this fast-growing region about 70 miles north of Denver who fear the risk of contaminated water and other health problems.
"How do you farm organically next to a uranium mine?" Hediger asks. "It's pretty darned scary, isn't it?"
Biologist tells how climate change affects agriculture
Essentially, in places where there is rain, global warming will bring more rain, and regions that commonly suffer droughts will continue to see a decrease in precipitation, he said.But changes will not be immediate.
"What we're seeing now is a result of carbon fuels released 30 years ago," he said. "You're looking at a big water shortage in the future for this part of the world."
Wheat shortage gets bakers right in the bread basket
Like flour-dependent businesses all over the country, Formica Brothers has been hit hard by the drastically rising price of flour, which has increased by about 250 percent in just six months."In August, a 100-pound bag of flour cost about $15. Today it's over $50," said Formica, of Margate. "For us, that means we went from paying $7,500 a week for a shipment of 500 pounds of flour to now paying over $25,000."
Food shortages loom as wheat crop shrinks and prices rise
THE world is only ten weeks away from running out of wheat supplies after stocks fell to their lowest levels for 50 years.The crisis has pushed prices to an all-time high and could lead to further hikes in the price of bread, beer, biscuits and other basic foods.
It could also exacerbate serious food shortages in developing countries especially in Africa.
South Africa: Time Ripe for Food Security to Move Up Policy Agenda
THE increase in fossil fuel prices has led the world to reconsider alternative sources of energy, such as biofuels.As a result, the demand for grains and oil seeds has increased substantially over a short period , with prices reaching record highs. At the same time, the economic growth and increasing wealth in countries such as China and India have put additional demand on grain supplies.
The prophets of climate-change doom have highlighted the effect that this could have on the availability of food. All these factors have brought agriculture to the forefront of international discussions, not only among governments but also among business leaders.
'Eco-awakening' affects personal lifestyle choices
Almost every day, Vanessa Wilbourn looked forward to a cup of tea from Starbucks on her drive to high school.Then several weeks ago, she started wondering about whether her habit was good for the Earth.
Sustainability and the Pressing Need to Raise Our Collective Consciousness
In 1972, during a speech at an International Rotary Convention in Lausanne, Switzerland, shortly after my epiphany in space, I raised concern about the finite supply of fossil fuels, and its role in sustainability. We are overwhelming our planet’s renewable resources with our numbers and consumption patterns. It is my hope that reaching peak oil will cause citizens of the world to awaken to the larger issues.
Matt Simmons - Energy policy: U.S. needs to show world the way
If I were preparing a briefing for the president-elect on urgent energy actions needed in the administration's first 30 days, it would read as follows:● Be prepared for peak oil and gas. While the data is still imperfect, there is a high risk that global use of oil and gas is now at or beyond a sustainable level. While demand for both key fossil fuels still rages ahead, new supplies are struggling to grow fast enough to offset rising production declines from old (and very old) oil and gas basins.
...It is impossible to predict any precise timing of when peak supply will be reached, nor the duration this peak output will stay at an "undulating plateau" before then going into what could be a steep decline. Hence, the world's leaders need to assume we have no more than three to five years to make a transition to a post-peak oil and gas world.
Renowned 'peak oil' expert addresses Dubai's business leaders
“Peak oil is probably now past tense and the world is desperately in need of a sustainable series of new energy sources and urgent adoption of conservation measures to wean 'us' all from a chronic addiction not just to oil, but all three forms of fossil fuels,” said Matthew Simmons.According to Simmons one of the most critical questions facing the global energy market is whether key oil producing nations can increase oil production to meet the current and future growth in world demand. He warns that with the rapid population growth, improved economies and subsequent increase in vehicles the world’s demand for oil can only continue to multiply.
OPEC Production Cut In March To Send "Bad Signals"- Official
DUBAI -(Dow Jones)- An output cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries during its March meeting would send "bad signals" to the market and add further pressure on already soaring oil prices, a group official said Sunday."Fundamentals do warrant a cut, but we are afraid that if such a step is taken then it would send bad signals to the markets and lead to even higher prices," the Persian Gulf OPEC official told Dow Jones Newswires.
Iraq's oil flows to Turkey despite incursion
BAGHDAD (Xinhua) - Iraqi exports of crude oil continue flowing through Turkey despite the Turkish military operation against the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in northern Iraq, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said on Sunday. "I confirm that the oil exports are flowing normally to Ceyhanport and that the operations did not effect it," an official from the ministry's media office told Xinhua."There is up to 350,000 barrels of crude oil per day exported through the Ceyhan port," the official said.
Iraq forms committee for shared oilfields issues
(MENAFN) The Iraqi Cabinet announced that it will form a government committee to negotiate with neighboring countries over shared oil fields, a move that comes after Iraq accused Iran of stealing its oil from areas along their border, AP reported.The Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's office issued a statement saying that the Cabinet had agreed to form a committee to be headed by a foreign affairs deputy, with representation from the Oil and Interior ministries.
Yemen says foils attempt to bomb oil pipeline
SANAA (Reuters) - Yemeni forces have foiled an attempt to blow up a crude oil pipeline in the Marib province and arrested a number of "saboteurs," the official Yemeni news agency Saba said on Sunday."Interrogations are under way, but the initial results indicate that this group is linked to the terrorist bombing of the pipeline last year," Saba said, citing the head of security in the province.
Shell Irish Gas Refinery Fire Deliberately Set, Scotsman Says
(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said a fire at a natural gas refinery being built in western Ireland appears to have been deliberately set, the Scotsman newspaper reported, citing the Press Association.
Basin has yielded 30 billion barrels of oil, isn't through yet
More than 300 million years of history combined to form the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, filling it with abundant reserves of crude oil and natural gas.To date, more than 30 billion barrels of crude oil have powered economies around the globe, and experts say the Basin isn't yet done.
Energy policy: Drop ideas of independence
The search for solutions to our energy challenges leads to one inescapable conclusion: There are no easy answers.Regardless of who sits in the Oval Office next January, the reality is that world oil prices will never return to the "good old days" of the 1990s.
Energy Sector Peak Oil Trends Paint “A Very Alarming Picture”
While energy demand may be tempered by a slowdown in global economic growth, longer term growing energy demands and supply constraints will continue to present incredible challenges. Much more capital will need to be allocated to the sector to address supply issues, which should create opportunities for investors. We noted the following developments in the energy sector last month...
Concerns delay Richton oil site
WASHINGTON - Environmentalists persuaded Mississippi lawmakers to press the Department of Energy to re-examine plans to store millions of gallons of oil in salt caverns near Richton, foreshadowing other hurdles the ambitious project could face.
British Columbians are voting with their feet and heading to the burbs
British Columbians are voting with their feet. And they're opting for suburbia.Folks like Kunstler can rage against the suburbs all they want -- but wishing them away won't make it so.
Australia: Garnaut inquiry into climate change a step forward
THE interim report on climate change by Professor Ross Garnaut is excellent . Garnaut argues convincingly that Australia has more to lose from global warming than other developed countries, is well placed to profit from effective global mitigation policies and therefore concludes it is in Australia's interests to seek international agreement based on the most feasible global mitigation target.
Brother, can you spare a carbon credit?
Thinkers weigh a radical new way to reduce greenhouse gas: Give everyone an individual carbon allowance, and let the dealing begin.
Oil industry and wind farms battle for tax breaks
WASHINGTON — It's renewable energy vs. the oil industry in the halls of Congress where lawmakers are weighing whether to shift billions of dollars in tax incentives from oil and gas to wind, solar and biomass.
With our polar ice caps shrinking, our coral reefs dying and our ecological clocks ticking, Earthlings are losing patience with the shameless gas-guzzling status quo in the United States. Even the barons of the old energy industries have abandoned their speaking points that denied climate change, and have begun demanding government action.
Governors: Include coal in energy debate
WASHINGTON - Governors pushing alternative energy development are not shying from coal, a major culprit in global warming but also a homegrown energy source and an economic lifeline for many states.Leaders of coal-rich states say clean-coal technology is a must. Governors from states without coal want more evidence the technology works.
First biofuel flight touches down
I assume (and hope) that George Monbiot will calculate how many people will probably starve due to that one "test" (PR?) flight alone. One point of reference: the grain needed to make enough ethanol to fill an SUV tank once, can feed a person for a YEAR. Now imagine the tanks of a jumbo jet...
Yeah I know they said "algae" somewhere in their press release, but:
* the current bio-jet-fuel is from land crops, not algae
* there is no hope for a large-scale algae-based biofuel system any time soon
* even an algae-based method would have impacts on food, climate, etc. E.g. in need for water, or effect on fish.
Vtpeaknik, I have no doubt that this statement is true. I would like to use it myself in some correspondence with others, that is true believers who think that biofuels will save the day. However I try, though I sometimes fail, never to make a statement that I cannot back up with references or data. My question is, where can I find a reference or calculation concerning the above statement? Anyone? Anyone?
Thanks in advance,
Ron Patterson
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,530791-4,00.html
"A simple calculation points out biofuel's less-than-stellar potential. To fill the roughly 100-liter (26-gallon) tank of an SUV, an ethanol producer has to process about a quarter of a ton of wheat. This is enough wheat for a baker to bake about 460 kilograms of bread, which has a total nutritional value of about a million kilocalories -- enough to feed one person for a year."
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question527.htm
A gallon of gasoline (about 4 liters) contains about 31,000 calories. If a person could drink gasoline, then a person could ride about 912 miles on a gallon of gas (about 360 km per liter). Considering that a normal car gets about 30 miles per gallon, that's pretty impressive
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2431
Let's just pause a moment and figure out how much food we are talking about when we discuss bushels of corn, or gallons of ethanol. A bushel of corn is 56 lb (or 25.4kg) of corn. At about 8000 btu/lb we get 113120 kCal/bushel. Given the average human diet globally contains 2800 kCal/day (see figure below), 1 bushel represents 40 days worth of calories for a person (if that person eat only corn!). Thus at current conversion efficiencies of about 2.8 gal/bushel, the corn in a gallon of ethanol represents a shade over two weeks worth of food (again, all corn). A 15 gallon fuel tank of ethanol is thus 7 months worth of corn calories for one person. Of course, the American corn crop is mainly fed to animals, and after conversion to meat, eggs, or dairy at efficiencies in the range of 1/10 - 1/3, the 15 gallon tank of ethanol is more like 1-2 months worth of food calories for a person.
Xeroid, thanks a million. That was exactly what I was looking for.
Ron Patterson
Based on the numbers that Stuart presented on his biofuels post, in round numbers I estimated that it would take 100% of current world food production to replace current US net petroleum imports with biofuels.
This is one sided corn-bashing getting really STOOPID.
A 26 gallon tank of filled with ethanol would take 560 pounds of corn.
So replacing gasoline with say E85 in the SUV tank would take
560 pounds of corn(10 bushels of corn) PLUS 167 pounds of DDGS animal feed which is equal to 65 pounds of meat or 6 gallons of whole milk( milk is 90% water).
The average american eats 200 pounds of meat a year and 300 pounds of dairy products(mostly milk) a year.
That figures to require about 1200# of DDGS a year or 69 bushels of corn that would also produce 180 gallons of ethanol. E85 is gets 70% the mileage of straight gasoline. At 14 mpg, that will get his SUV about miserable 2520 miles.
So after 7 trips to fill his gas tank with E85 would produce enough dairy and meat to feed the average american for a whole year.
Producing corn ethanol would result in a bumper crop of food! If we could replace all 150 billion gallons of gasoline with E85 we would increase our meat and milk bounty by over 300%. But I don't want to eat three times the meat and dairy I eat now! (And it doesn't seem possible in terms of cropland acres.)
Attempts to turn this into a 'guns or butter' argument are futile. We would get a few 'guns'(energy) and a lot of 'butter'(animal products) with corn ethanol.
It's no wonder these food versus ethanol fanatics don't get it.
We don't have a FOOD crisis we have a FUEL crisis!
(But a FOOD crisis works so much better with their Malthusian doomer nighmares, does it not?)
Three errors.
Cattle, in particular, can take only a small percentage of their diet as distillers grains, Too much and they get "scours", diarrhea.
And the ethanol industry is fast approaching that limit.
One gets more meat & milk from unprocessed grains (you are taking away many of the calories when distilling).
And the BEST response to food shortages is less meat and milk and more tortillas, etc. Save some for your fellow man even if you can afford to keep your belly full (or obese).
Alan
RE: "Good Calories, Bad Calories"
It may be the case that 'we can feed more people' on veggie matter (carbohydrates) but that they would be much healthier eating a more ecologically expensive diet high in meats and fats and low in carbs. IMO Gary Taubes' hypothesis has been extremely well researched and presents us with quite a dilemma. Healthy but possibly ecologically unsustainable diet, or less healthy but ecologically sustainable diet.
Taubes, Pollan, and Weston Price would probably all agree on the health aspects, especially their distaste for the highly manufactured Western diet. I've never seen a life cycle analysis of factory farming techniques versus the old fashioned ways - for example how much does grass-fed/grass-finished beef cost relative to the feedlot grain-fed variety? If you got rid of the manufactured fertilizers, processed animal feed, antibiotics and supplements would the cost of meat increase or decrease? How about dairy? I have no clue. What if you add in the cost of fouled water supplies,
increased need for expensive health care, natural gas depletion, soil depletion, .... Oh rats, I'm getting ahead of myself...
I guess what I'm trying to say is there's a system level view of this; we can't regard it as an isolated subsystem.
Chris
Do get a copy of All Flesh is Grass and read it as it answers many of your questions.
Your numbers may be skewed by the American way of life. I suspect the average human worldwide can't afford anything near 200 pounds of meat a year. Try your calculations with 50 pounds of meat and the majority in grains and veggies. I think it will come out remarkably close to one tankful of ethanol.
On the other hand, if we outlawed high fructose corn syrup as a foodstuff and used a little less sugar, we'd have plenty of corn left for ethanol, and probably a healthier population.
It feels like we need to find a new balance point. As long as Big Ag runs things we'll have the most profitable food, not the most healthy or sustainable.
Corn is mostly animal feed. If human life is so valuable and threatened by an inadequate supply of corn, quit feeding the stuff to animals. There are 65 million hogs in the United States. Each hog consumes 15 bushels of corn to reach market weight. Kill the hogs! Save the people.
Straw man arguments that say that ethanol can not replace gasoline are silly. Of course it can't. No serious ethanol supporter would pose such and argument. We don't need to replace gasoline in the near future. We need to supplement it. Even the most rabid Peak Oiler does not say we will run out of oil.
Corn currently exported goes mostly to wealthier countries like Japan and China. They use it for animal feed just as we do. When it is sold to foreigners for animal feed or human food, a portion of the energy of corn is lost to the American economy since corn is inappropiately priced for its energy content. When I burn a bushel corn in my corn stove it is worth the equivalent of $9.00 of LP gas. When it is sold for export, it goes for about $5.00. $4.00 is lost to the American economy.
Those who are so worried about the starving should ask themselves if they are willing to have their taxes raised to pay for the corn they believe will save lives. Or do they just want farmers to sell corn for less than its energy value and make non economic decisions based on faulty analysis.
There is no need to raise taxes. The elimination of corn ethanol subsidies should suffice to kill the economic viability of the stuff.
Another important issue is the marginal net energy gain of corn ethanol. The energy balance is near break even, so the only thing this is accomplishing is the consumption of valuable arable land while we pay more for energy and food with no net energy gain. What a bargain!
What about cellulistic ethanol? This would not be so bad, as it uses a waste product, but it is not technologically ready yet. Why even bother with converting the waste to ethanol? We can convert it directly into diesel with existing technology and one BTU of diesel goes further than one BTU of ethanol, as diesel engines are much more efficient than spark ignition engines.
You have to kill the mandates too, or the cost will just come out at the pump.
Which wouldn't be a bad thing; the "Live Green Go Yellow" ad campaign would be dead within days.
Majorian it is your post that is really STOOPID! No one is talking about what the average American eats and no one is talking about wheat after it has been cycled through a cow. We are talking about the number of calories a citizen of the world normally consumes in a day and the number of calories, in wheat, it takes to fill the tank of an SUV. Here are the numbers:
Now dispute those numbers without talking about how much meat the average American consumes after it has been cycled through a cow. How many kilocalories does the average Haitian consume? How about the average Bangladeshi or Indian or Sub-Sahara African? A quarter of a ton of wheat would be 250 kilos per year or .685 kilos per day, or 1.5 pounds of wheat per day.
Does the average citizen of the third world consume, per day, the calories contained in 1.5 pounds of wheat? I don't know but that seems pretty close to me. So basically you could feed one person for one year on the amount of calories contained in one SUV tank of ethanol.
Ron Patterson
I must say Majorian
your lack of compassion is breathtaking. Whether, the notion that the impoverished can afford a diet of meat, the lack of concern about what ethanol does to the price of grains - the principal diet of the world. Or the utter disregard for those poor animals force fed grain, let alone distillers grain.
We really have no hope.
I'm sure Sir Richard means well, but it's frustrating to see what passes for 'green progress' in the news.
This sort of story and project is exploding: having the shallow trappings of some kind of solution, but being mostly or entirely useless. The passenger-free flight of an airliner on 'biodiesel' proves nothing in concept, and leads to nothing useful - it was a PR stunt, nothing more. But it's not just the likes of Branson, it's everywhere you look. Particularly in the USA, where to a first approximation no one understands thermodynamics, you can get away with anything, get venture capital for anything, raise tax-deductible money for anything.
I call them EcoWankers. A word for our times. (Not to be confused with the formerly-honorable title "environmentalist", which has been unfairly maligned, partly due to ecowankers messing up the signal-to-noise ratio and partly due to many non-environmentalists being shallow, stupid, and/or delusional from the getgo.)
Land sakes, a jet that flies on fuel. What won't they think of next?
Branson calls peak in six
http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2008/02/RichardBranson20080224.mp3
Branson: nuts to peak oil
Matt Simmons - Energy policy: U.S. needs to show world the way
A foundation of a post-Peak Oil policy is at
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&It...
And more is developing with the Millennium Institute.
I wish I could get to him !
Best Hopes for Help,
Alan
My comment to the Matt Simmons article in the Houston Chronicle
Mr. Simmons plan is incomplete and inadequate to the task, unfortunately.
It is possible to create a Non-Oil Transportation System in parallel to our existing Oil Based Transportation, and shift to the Non-Oil Transportation system (at every level from getting milk & bread to shipping containers cross-country, all without oil).
Some details at
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&It...
Electrify freight railroads, add back tracks torn up decades ago and switch freight from trucks to rail. The electrified rail corridors would also double as new electrical transmission corridors, strengthening out grid and ability to shift renewable power around. The Russians electrified the Trans-Siberian RR in 2002, so technically it can be done !
The CSX railroad proposal for Washington DC to Miami could be applied elsewhere. (2 tracks with regular freight @ 70 mph, one track for passengers and express freight @ 110 mph, all grade separated).
Build out Urban Rail at a rate not seen since 1897-1916 in the USA.
France has announced plans to build 1,500 km of new tram (Light Rail) in a decade, (and they take August off for vacation and work 37 hours/week). Mulhouse France (pop 112,000) will have twice as much (34 miles) Light Rail than Houston by 2011, despite Houston's two year (2004 vs. 2006) head start. One will be able to walk out the door in Mulhouse and be in Paris in 4 to 5 hours and use just a drop of lubricating oil. Non-oil Transportation can meet the needs of the average resident of Mulhouse.
Would that Americans could work with the speed and efficiency of French bureaucrats !
Walkable neighborhoods can be encouraged along the Urban Rail routes, reducing the need for more than shoe leather. I use 5 gallons/month in my neighborhood, with 5 food stores within 7 blocks (closest 2.5 blocks away), barber, banks, retail all close by, a pleasant (and healthy) walk away. I take the streetcar more often than I drive.
Many Americans want this lifestyle (not all) and this unmeet market demand should be satisfied !
And the lowly bicycle is another key link in a Non-Oil Transportation system. Today, Americans build their cities and parking to make it as difficult as possible to bike to work or to shop. This could be changed, in part by policy changes, in part by taking space away from the oil burners and in part, by a change in attitude. REAL patriots bicycle to work (or take the train) !
Instead of desperately searching for some new invention to save our Oil Based Transportation, let use build a Non-Oil Transportation system with mature existing technology. There is no magic to electrified railroads traveling at 110 mph, or Urban Rail or bicycles or walking. Just a choice to make !
Best Hopes.
Alan Drake
He seems more inclined toward keeping cars, only with alternate fuels. He's got that new ocean institute. He's apparently hoping to grow algae and make biofuel. And/or power cars with ammonia.
Let us all wish REAL HARD for the Just-in-Time Technology Fairy !
Realistically, even if tomorrow morning a major breakthrough was made, the ability to ramp up production quickly enough is "highly doubtful".
Sure, continue R&D, but lets start on building something we KNOW works ASAP.
Best Hopes for Reality Based Planning,
Alan
PS: I would still like some access to Simmons
there is no breakthrough needed to make ammonia from RE sources, only the commitment.
Alan.
What is all the electrified, extended, constructed, re-constructed rail transport system going to achieve?
Who or what is it going to assist in the long run?
Do you envision millions of people commuting to work in trains over long distances as they do now by motor vehicle?
Will the transport of consumer goods, livestock, grains, frozen goods, ores and cement continue to be carried out by train over long distances?
I guess you assume a world of business as usual.
Will we just have to build rail lines to maintain our lifestyle, will there be plenty of jobs for everyone and plenty of revenue gained by the transport of people and goods, to pay for and maintain the rail network.
You know what I think.
When we are at the stage of oil depletion that electrified rail is the transport of choice, there will be nothing much to transport, the amount of electrified rail around the place now, will be more than enough. Or, we can adapt when required. Anticipating now would be a dangerous gamble for private enterprise.
On top of that, coastal cities will become inundated and non-viable, so don't bother constructing too close to the coast.
Maintenance of modern rail systems is quite costly as well. The rail and tires are high quality hardened steel. Brake blocks are made in large amounts. Overhead electrified gantries require regular costly maintenance. Carriages are made now so they must be air-conditioned.
Derailments and accidents require specialized cranes and equipment.
I'm not saying that they are not insurmountable obstacles but they are large considerations for a normal network, let alone an expanded one and especially in a likely depressed economy, with very poor prospects of recovery.
In my lay person opinion, ensuring the present network and transport system is well maintained and capable of adapting and functioning in an anaemic economy is an excellent strategy.
Goods and commuter transport are likely to be far more dynamic and unpredictable than we tend to assume.
The world is going to wind down, not scale up.
Roads without trucks and cars will make great cart paths and bicycle lanes.
The short answer is that
1) the future is unknowable and
2) railroads will be useful under almost any scenario.
Cambodia and Liberia used handmade "railcars" on their RRs (when two cars meet, the lighter one was lifted off the tracks, the other passed, and then put back on the tracks).
I could foresee a situation where keeping the RRs operating would keep a higher level of social organization amidst general breakdown.
Best Hopes for Railroads, and the Rest of US,
Alan
I've heard several extended interviews of Mr. Simmons on "Financial Sense" that I have downloaded from its website at http://www.financialsense.com/. Interestingly, many people/reporters are starting to pickup on his warnings about energy availability, but haven't really embraced one of his key points--his views on conservation.
When given time for a full interview, Mr. Simmons repeatedly points out that the only real solution is both conservation and increased energy buildout--using all viable sources of energy. He has stated that with all the investment and time needed to fix the current energy mess, we will have to either voluntarily conserve (or prices/scarcity will force us to conserve.)
On the conservation side, he is really pushing use of work at home/webbased commerce initiatives. Particularly in the US, he sees this as a significant part of the answer.
Best regards...
French workers have at least six weeks holidays per year and the maximum working week is 35 hours. The tramways are very popular. Nice recently opened its tramway after years of delays and the corruption investigations have started while pulic transport use has grown by 17%. Smaller towns are developing bus networks. For example the MAximum bus fare in the Alpes Maritimes Department is now 1 €uro and this gives up to Three hours of bus travel. An Antibes, the old town is now served by free bus services linking it with the rail stations, bus stations, and carparks.
French work week, 35 vs. 37 hours.
I am sorry if I overstated how much the French work. I thought that the goal of a 35 hour work week was being rolled back, and it never became universal, but I could well be wrong.
Yes, I know about the 6 weeks vacation, but "taking the month of August off" is, IMHO, more evocative.
More details please on French work weeks,
Best Hopes for a Rescission of the Louisiana Purchase,
Alan
The French don't understand the situation - the world's gotta have growth :-)
Increased efficiency means :
you can work the same number of hours and get more stuff
not
you get the same amount of stuff while working less hours! :-)
Why would you want to have an easier life when you could have more, more, more! ... and bigger too! :-)
Matt Simmons & post peak..
Memel had a very interesting post yesterday regarding peak plateau and overall worldwide declinrate, and I just wonder what's the thinking of the rest of the gang about it:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3655#comment-308243
Just read the post. Could sombody make sense of this sentance
'However the only model that works if you assume or ability to extract has increased with time far greater then increases in recovery is a plateau followed by steep declines.'
'However the only model that works--if we assume our ability to extract has increased with time far greater than increases in recovery--is a plateau followed by steep declines.'
This is my guess.
The question is to what extent improved technology has increased the production rate versus the recovery rate.
For example, Shell was convinced that they had significantly increased the recoverable reserves in the Yibal Field, and they were expanding the surface production facilities to handle an expected flood of new oil when they were hit by a flood of new water. This was one of the big contributing factors to their large reduction in proven oil reserves.
I've used the very simple example of an opaque bottle full of water. You can pour the water out at a trickle up to the maximum--but the rate at which the water is poured out has no effect on the ultimate amount of water that can be poured out. At maximum pour rate, it simply appears that there is a lot of liquid in the bottle.
This is why Memmel asserts that the HL estimates are, by and large, probably too optimistic.
Put simply, nobody knows for sure whether secondary and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods recover MORE oil than would otherwise be the case - undeniably they extract (the depletion rate) the oil more quickly thus the production decline rate post peak is greater as it is over a shorter period.
Getting the oil out quickly is especially important in an offshore hostile, corrosive, and expensive marine environment - which is probably why we are seeing the rapid decline rates in Canterell where EOR has been used extensively. Drilling an offshore well is more expensive than an equivalent one onshore and hence more risky - the volumes of oil to be extracted from any well, in order to make a profit, are much greater offshore.
"Put simply, nobody knows for sure whether secondary and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods recover MORE oil than would otherwise be the case -"
you cant be serious!
We do need to differentiate between horizontal (MRC) wells versus secondary/tertiary recovery techniques (e.g., water flooding and CO2 floods).
All these techniques when used certainly get the oil to flow out of a well (much) quicker and hence depletes the reserves more quickly - but as for recovering more in total after all recovery is economically complete at current prices? ... I'm not sure and I don't think anybody else is, and that is the problem. How would you prove it?
The oil separated from the underlying water in the past, I suspect any oil remaining after current economic recovery is complete will again (eventually) separate once wells are capped and abandoned for a while - recovery can become economic again - maybe repeating time after time, just a much slower process - and less damaging to the environment.
These techniques have certainly made any peak much higher than it would otherwise have been and left less for our descendents. The inconvienient evidence from places like the North Sea seems to be that decline rates post peak on individual wells, when using these techniques, are much steeper than they otherwise would have been - maybe because at peak substantially more than half the economically recoverable oil has been extracted - a 'shark fin' production curve. In places like onshore USA lots of infill drilling may be reducing the production decline rate by cannibalising production that would eventually have come out of another well (but at the same time increasing the depletion rate) - if so, the pessimistic predictions of future flow rates would apply. Time will tell.
British Columbians are voting with their feet and heading to the burbs
Sadly many in the media think this is a debate, that suburbia and ex-burbia are simply sustainable choices and people like Kunstler are simply espousing a philosophy to be adopted or rejected. As JK and many on this and similar sites point out, economic and energy reality will doom the suburban structure, transforming it into some massivly changed entity at best and abandonment at worst. It would be nice to be able to put all of these shallow media types into a room in a few years and say "We told you so.", however we will be too busy doing real things to bother massaging our own egos.
And Allan we all desire street cars whether they are named Desire or King or Queen or Burrard or René Levesque. Keep up your pounding on this issue. It is where the renewable energy crowd meets the SUV groupies with lots of room for the technophiles to play and come up with nice innovations.
It is really hard to always be ahead of the curve, pounding your head against the wall, trying to convince people of the correctness of your position -- why on earth do we do it?
It is even harder to shut up and not say "I told you so" when the masses catch up with the pioneers.
Inevitably, however, the pioneers are buried and usually suffocated in the onrush of the masses when they (and the sharks among them) figure it out and profit from the new paradigm. Paradigm shifts are never benign, and never predictable. Thomas Kuhn (Structure of Scientific Revolutions), the originator of the term "paradigm shift" is the classic observation on the phenomenon.
Echoing Allan: "Best Hopes" for TOD to keep on task, working quietly in the background, never destroyed by success.
You can always tell the pioneers - they're the ones with arrows in their backs. ;-/
Or up to their a$$ in alligators !
Alan
jografy,
The writer of the Province article hasn't bothered researching the urban plan for his own city before writing this story. Downtown Vancouver is FULL. The population density there is about equal to Hong Kong. I counted 15 construction cranes just at false creek last week, and the southern terminus of the RAV line will soon look like downtown. People are choosing to spend $600,000 plus to live in a high-rise next to transit, and they know why. Living without a car is the preferred choice for those who can afford it.
Suburbia in Vancouver is already the second choice, and the transition to JHK's vision may be more gradual there than elsewhere in Canada
Thanks half full ( nice optimisitc handle too :) ) I havent been to Van since 1970 so I just remember a sweet provincial city but it doesn't surprise me that the writer was even lazier than I thought. Events will play out diferently for sure on local and regional circumstance. Perhaps you have a good idea on the potential for the southern mainland to have a viable economy in the post peak world. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts. It seems top me the lower Fraser is a well proven transportation link and that might prove the key. All the best from the Great Lakes basin.
A century from now the suburbs will still be there. It is just that "suburb" will mean roughly the same thing in English that "favela" does in Portugese.
"THE world is only ten weeks away from running out of wheat supplies after stocks fell to their lowest levels for 50 years."
The above from TimesOnline in Leanan's Drumbeat above.
From US Wheat Associates and WASDE, the 07/08
crop