Good question. For me, I decided that 'owning' a couple acres with a poorly built house included made sense. (The house kept the price affordable.) The front lawn is gone, and the backyard will be gone by spring. I'll build a new house someday, even if I have to do it myself.

I've thought about this a lot myself. I think you need to own outright where you live. Make sure it is a place you would want to live for the long haul; you have to live
somewhere and if it is owned outright and can keep up the taxes you can't be
put out on the street.
People comment a lot about being close to work, etc., this is true but there is no guarantee there would be a job to get to. Same with living close to a grocery store, no guarantee there would be groceries there to buy. I would rather have a place with a big yard to plant a garden than someplace where I would have to depend on others totally to live.

You mean 'residence' as just Owner Occupied, right?

We are, I think in the best position we could be in, with our 3-unit house in a walkable city, close to farmland, Seaport and rail(to some extent) Our two rentals pay the (Not ARM) mortgage completely, leaving us to pay for Heating (!), and our own food, utilities, insurance, daycare, etc..

The threat could be that if housing prices crash, then many renters would look to buy, and the rental market would thin out.. but our apts are decently priced, and well kept up.. unlike so many others in this town.

I'm working to offset heating with solar heat, and always chasing down more insulation, leaks and old windows to replace, but just the fact that our three 'households' share considerable wallspace makes our energy use a good bit more efficient. (In the coldest part of winter, we're burning some 10-12 gallons of oil a day.. divide by three households. I still want to bring it way down from that.)

Bob

The answer is are you willing to live there to live in your home for quality of life or do you intend to flip it to make more money when you sell.

It's all about quality of life, and what your desires are,
most people in America are willing to loose value in a car when they buy it, same goes with a computers, TV’s, etc., are so why they not willing to loose value in a house too?

Yet in the town I live at I raise the question why is Pushy Bully Builders are still coming to the table saying the need to build more houses, they seem to be blind to that we still have 600+ home vacant lots, about 100 vacant homes, 40 +/- retail spots, and not to forget 150 condos vacant too.

I saw a quote someone posted I like.

The market will adjust it's self, but not in a nice way.

Cheers
Jon

If your future vision concludes that cities will remain as centers of commerce, then yes, as there will still be jobs. If your vision is opposite, then no. History shows, however, that cities will continue to exist based upon their geographic assets. London was a huge metropolis long before fossil fuel use started, for example. Same with New York, Boston, Moscow, Oslo, Paris, etc. Will changes occur to these cities as a result of Peak Energy and Climate Change? Yes. In precisely what manner is impossible to tell currently.

Personally, I greatly prefer the Oregon countryside to any urban area. But cities have long been the seats of high culture, which is why I occasionaly visit Portland.

Right now I would say emphatically NO, with the exception of property that is grandfathered into property tax freezes like prop 13 in CA and in small cities with private police forces even if they are part of a major metro area.

A little cabin on a large plot of land that's hard to find, away from major population centers in states that have very low population seems relatively safe.

Then again, if they can change contracts in the middle of the game, who knows what else they may want to change. Once government develops this Zimbabwe attitude it's probably better to look for greener pastures.

If you have a friend in the area, you might look into something like the Tumbleweed Homes teeny houses on a trailer approach. Maybe you could park in their backyard and pay them $150 a month or something like that for rent. (Cheaper than property taxes.)

The Tumbleweed Homes are sort of like a trailer really, about the same size, and more expensive. I bet you could think of something better for less $$. In any case, if you got into some kind of home for an outlay of $15,000 up front and $150 a month, that's not bad. You would also be paying much less in utilities, maybe less than your "rent", so there's more savings/independence from money income there.

I think that having enough room for a good garden is important. Generally this means at least a half acre of land if you can get it. If you plan on being a farmer then figure out how to make money at it. Be a real one.

Next owing outright is probably the second most important variable. This may mean a trailer on a acre of land within walking distance of a small town. You can always build a nice home if you have the money.

Finally a pond or at least a well is important.

On the money side I'd always consider that you may be reduced to say 10 dollars a day of income. So think hard about what you could do with 300 a month. How would you live. Can you reduce expenses to the point that this is doable ? Are you diabetic ?

If you do have a medical condition and can still work you may want to think about entering the medical field so you can work in a hospital.

For me at least I like to think about how I'd live in abject poverty and still enjoy life.

I'd garden and fish and I love working with stone.

Now the big issue taxes and more important living in a area where the state and local governments are probably bankrupt.
Just about everywhere in America is in trouble given this but the western states which had bigger housing bubbles are going to have serious problems. Maintaining ownership of anything when your state is bankrupt is a serious concern unless your part of the in crowed. One reason I've personally not rushed off to buy a place even though I'm a admitted doomer is I've very interested in watching how the various states handle the coming financial crunch. The smart move is to downsize until the government can be supported by a depressed local economy. The government has to practice ELP also. I question if states like California and Oregon are going to responsibly downsize the government.

The underlying problem is you can make a lot of money taking over properties for back taxes so even during a depression if your only paying pennies on the dollar for a piece of property you can make money say selling the home for scrap logging the trees and absorbing the land into a larger farm.
Or if its in town converting the property to a rental.
So a government can easily fall into the trap of destroying the community to support itself and a few wealthy insiders.

So I'm waiting to see how various regions will move. So far I'm concerned that Oregon and California will revert to destructive taxation in order to try and keep their governments running. Texas and Florida and most of the East coast are also of concern. I suspect that a lot of people that thought they had everything worked out will find out that everything they have will be lost to the government.

So I'm going to stay a happy renter and try and save money and probably move it to safer accounts soon. And wait till I see a state make a decision to aggressively reduce its government before I buy.

I can answer you some of that from personal experience, having been an apartment dwelling mass transit-er in Portland for six years. Mostly I have the usual caveats about MT - schlupping eight grocery bags in the rain and waiting half an hour. A company I worked for wanted me at a site in Gresham (east of Portland, satellite community). It was a 3/4 mile trek from the nearest line. Another place I was to work at was close to downtown, about a half mile North across the Willamette River - but it was simply impossible for me to get there by bus by 8 AM - and I lived on the east side on 23rd Ave two blocks from one of the primary E/W arteries!

Regarding prices, admittedly I saved a heap over the years, don't know what the monthly passes averaged out to - $50? So perhaps $600/year = $3600 for the duration. You'd spend that much per year on a car.

These are my caveats about MT, you really need to be very close to work and have real job stability, or the system needs to expand a great deal, even from Portland's pretty high standard. I'm also in favor of whatever solution can be implemented in the most simple and fast manner, as I think this will be all we'll have when crunch time happens. Much as I like the idea of a tram line every mile watching the MAX lines being built here was like watching a geriatric snail 10k.

User eastbay has posted some horror stories about the bus and MAX lines at po.com, too. Recently a 71 year old man was beaten with a baseball bat at one of the MAX stops. Time for the formation of community posses.

As I understand it...if you're in default, you don't qualify.

This package is not going to help very many people. If you've already missed payments, you're not eligible. If you can afford to pay even when your mortgage resets, you're not eligible.

Basically, this is triage, and designed to help as few people as possible. It's for people who can afford their mortgages now, but won't be able to afford them when they reset.

There will probably be more bailout plans coming, but for now - there's zero incentive to default.

Yeah.. it is frustrating...

This is the problem with educating people about energy. It is extremely complex and the facts can't compete with all the PR noise.

People just don't have the attention span to sit down and really analyze the data. Also, negative information just doesn't seem to register with most people I talk to.

Probably for every 10 people I try to educate, 7 blow me off entirely, 2 listen to what I say but get distracted by whatever they read in wired magazine and 1 actually gets it and wants to know more.

This peak oil stuff is really taking a toll on my social standing though. Increasingly higher percentages of my aquaintences question my sanity.

The majority of consumers reject anti-ethanol propaganda:

The majority of consumers reject evolution.

The bandwagon just ran out of gas.

And switchgrass doesn't require the best soil to grow well. It can be grown on land not currently used for crops.

And the reason that the land isn't being used for crops? Let me guess, swampy wetlands, rugged hilly terrain with great erosion, wildlife refuges and nature preserves, you get the picture. If land is worth farming at a reasonable cost it usually is. Moreover, there is no free lunch. Harvesting with no return of organic material to replenish the soil will eventually wear it out. May take a while but it will happen.

Over 70 % of the responders didn't know what E85 was, I would have liked to have seen a question about ethanol affecting food prices but a pro-ethanol group wouldn't be asking that question, eh.

People accustomed to thinking critically might disagree, depending on what is meant by the words important, government, requires, cleaner, more efficient, etc. This should not come as a surprise to us here.

But the general public has difficulty with thinking outside the box.

especailly when the top news story this morning on npr was the whole hoopla over the golden compus movie.

Have you ever been to western Europe? I haven't, but from what I read they aren't infested with their own equivalent of the disloyal Christian Right the way the United States is ...

or e.g. Margaret Atwood's "Handmaid's Tale"

Actually, if you are referring to the person who I think that you are referring to, he was an artist/painter - not a house painter. I don't know why these little untruths become repeated so often that they get incorporated into peoples' perception of reality.

ah

"But when I look at the electric vehicles they seem to be quite useless for most tasks."

But what tasks? I watch hundreds of cars going across the Casco Bay Bridge into Portland every morning with ONE person in each one. Think of the thousands of gallons that one commute must consume every day. Getting a few bags of groceries, dropping the kid at daycare.. how many horses does that really require?

As was mentioned on the 'How Big is your Bike?' thread the other day, an advantage of E-bikes (and NEV cars) being established within the traffic structure, is that this will go hand-in-hand with the kind of traffic modifications that would be useful for bike lanes as well. The challenge isn't designing a bunch of vehicles that you can pedal and run electric to get through almost all of your commute and errand-miles, but just using that vehicle without the dinosaurs running you down.

Bob

Hear hear!

Too much of this electro-car stuff is about scoring enviro-style points rather than any functional utility. If you need -- genuinely need, as many do -- carrying capacity, four wheel stability, protection from inclement weather/cold and all the other advantages of proper automobiles as opposed to bikes etc., then why not go with a SMALL internal combustion engine. The technology is well refined, relatively cheap, and of course fossil fuels have spectacular energy/weight ratio. Something with a 5-20hp motor would be fine.

Actually, if you used the 150 mpg Loremo (20hp diesel) as a hauler, by taking out the front passenger and rear seat, you'd probably have quite a bit of room in there.

The Japanese mini-trucks, which are common throughout Asia, are also a decent off-the-shelf solution. They have 600cc engines, good for about 40hp, and get probably 50mpg. They have four-wheel drive and cost about $9,000.

If you reduce fuel use by 5/6ths, for example going from 25mpg to 150 mpg, that is functionally almost the same as reducing fuel use by 6/6ths, ie using no fuel at all.

I recently learned that the Aptera doesn't really get 230mpg, it's more like 130mpg on the gasoline engine alone. At this point, I'd opt for the Loremo for lower cost, less complexity, and more traditional styling.

With that said, I am still a supporter of trains for all regular travel. In a train-based city, autos and trucks are used primarily for commercial uses, whether for hauling significant loads or possibly taxis.

The US retail system is set up for personal automobile use. In train-based cities, where people can't carry large loads for long distances, you tend to get much more distributed retail. There's a small store every few blocks, and it is typical to shop for groceries 4-7 times a week. For the rare large-sized purchase, like furniture or a refrigerator, delivery services are readily available.

Most people who don't need carrying capacity for their work (such as a contractor might) have virtually no need for carrying capacity at all.

I'll check eBay out! I'm checking locally for used Gems as well. Not many in MN, yet.

Thanks Bob. I did like Envision's solar Life Port -- a garage with a solar array to power a household and an NEV.

Clif;
I am glad you are proposing some solutions, and not just saying any of the tools others suggest 'won't do it all, so don't waste your money'.. But really, are you suggesting that using a Horse for transportation in Minneapolis (St Paul?) today is a practical solution? Come on, man. YOU get a horse in New Hampshire and tell me how it works out.

I don't hate horses, nor do I hate your concern that we're facing a herculean challenge.. but we've got a journey of a thousand miles ahead of us, and nobody in town is selling bags of oats yet. What do you see as the 'First Steps' on that journey? Really. Sincere Question.

Regards,
Bob Fiske

'Oh, the Mainer and New Hampshire can be friends!'
- From the new Musical, 'O-new-hampshire!'

You've probably seen this, it's been posted enough here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFYpNrbyKCA

At the end of the strip, John drives his reconverted solar MG sports car that is licensed for highway use today. I keep going back in my head on that one-having the pv panels on board and generating as you drive.

Some good considerations.

A couple points.

but it's the only way to get the weight down and still pass a crash test.

This reminded me of something I have often thought about.
I think whether a car passes inspection will not be a Deterrent to people from driving or riding most anything.

Most towns won't have the budget to chase those folks. Now if you shot someone then... but less than that, 'your on your own' may be the way of the land.

Those laws will only be enforced in urban areas if at all. In the country, I think you will see most everything.
(Like that vehicle that keeps going across the intersection in the movie The Mexican).

another, point

If Cuba can keep a bunch of full-size Buicks running under a 50-year trade embargo and a 15-year oil lockout, I think we will make the effort to scavenge the useless ICE cars and golf cart motors around us for quite a lot longer.

I would have said chevy... but I digress, I think the reuse and Scrounging may be as common as going to the mall today. Flea Markets and such. And boy oh boy the things you will see for sale will be amazing. Many things Deconstructed and sold.

But there are some INGENOUS people out there. (Hang out at www.fieldlines.com for a while), I see a resurgence of interest in uncomplicated cars. Like pre-70's The electronics of today is a luxury of the modern global supply chains. Special parts that come only from one or two companies in the world are used with no concern because they are as easy to order as something next door. The parts of most complicated things we have today(ie cars etc) are sourced all over.

The new mantra of building things will be;

Simple Engineering Is Great Engineering

A Super 7? I love 'em, but how many Americans do you think could fit in one? And really, I can fit more in my pocket than you can in a 7!

I think the e-ride EVX and ZAP Truck XL are pretty close in concept to what I'd like. They would be useful on and about a small farm, and would be fine for transporting goods to and from a nearby town. And they could get you to the nearby train station (like we'll really rebuild those). Not fast, but a fair sight better than carrying it yourself.

But I would have doubts about the structure of the e-ride, and frankly I'm still not convinced that a 40hp diesel wouldn't be a better bet.

Oh, and I find the idea of an electric version of a British sports car amusing - the electrics were the part that didn't work! A Lucas EV anyone?

To make a long story short, once upon a time, Hizz-ex-honor, Paul Soglin, enjoyed, depending on one's point of view, either considerable fame or notoriety as a Sixties radical.

But time passed, and he had a family and they bought a house.

Now, there's a reason why many modern governments just about force people to buy houses. It's ages-old - long ago, the Byzantines had their version, sending settlers out onto the Anatolian plain under the theme system and binding them to the land there. That gave the settlers a "stake in society", and they defended that land for centuries, to the great benefit of the empire.

These days, we are less ambitious, so it may suffice merely to discourage people from protesting: "I would define the middle class as property owners, as stakeholders in a society. Those people who were marching [in Tiananmen Square, 1989] did not have a stake in society because they didn't own property." (link, see about halfway down.)

Even a skim of Hizz-ex-honor's blog entry makes it abundantly clear that the ages-old plan works. Now, is that good or bad? Well, it depends on one's point of view.

Hi, beggar, the real problem here in Madison is the city government's flat-out refusal to do a proper job of plowing and de-icing the streets. There's tons of money for every conceivable kind of fluff, but not that. So the resource diminishes with each successive snowfall, every three days or so. And as we already know, and as hizzoner's blog amply shows, diminishing resources tend to be fought over.

It's also a serious problem for walkers, not just drivers and would-be cyclists. Under the present policy, it is not smart to walk in Madison in winter. Every year, the city government makes a public example of a few selected folks who fail to clear their walks to its satisfaction - sometimes even intensifying the guilt trip by citing the Americans with Disabilities Act. But it's futile. At the end of every block, there is a corner. A walker risks a hard fall there, because the intersection is a sheet of rutted glare ice. And a wheelchair user is, at the very minimum, going to have a very, very hard time of it.

Cross the border into the adjacent suburban towns (Middleton, Fitchburg), and the situation improves markedly. So, if you want to walk (or bike or push your wheelchair), leave the city and move to the suburbs. Now, in view of the good-city-versus-bad-suburb meme around here, ain't that something?

That would be dramatic.

The Energy bill.
The Farm Bill.
The GHG/Climate Change Bill.

where is the scientific evidence that shows combustion of NH3 will produce more N2O than any other fuels? in fact, please show any evidence that combustion of NH3 has produced any measurable amount of N2O. please!

Microscopic amounts of this are produced in a properly tuned engine - 200x more effective but 1/10,000th the amount of volume equals a big win on the warming front.

I'm not saying its theantidoomer grade magic, but it would appear that with a little elbow grease the state of Iowa could be self sufficient in electricity, fertilizer, and liquid fuels for harvest ... and that'll keep all of those PO skeptics and urban folks fed after the hammer drops.

I browsed their site.

They don't mention of where the fuel source will come from?

Is this yet another food-fuel problem, ammonia(urea) is fertilizer?

Which is most commonly made from Natural Gas!!!

EROEI, Food-Fuel, and less energy storage than the original donor (NG)...just to start.

Crash testing...ammonia not a great material to *spill*.

It still looks like electric is the best solution for mobility in the future.

N2O - what a laugh.

The combustion of NH3 supplies a pittance of the energy that CH4 does, precisely because it lacks carbon to burn. Lots of hassle transporting a toxic, pressurized liquid, for not much range.

Heats of formation from Wiki:
Methane -17.9kcal/mol
Ammonia -45.9kcal/mol
Steam -240.8kcal/mol
Carbon dioxide -393.5kcal/mol

After some cranking:
CH4 yields 53.6 kcal/g;
NH3 only 20.2 kcal/g.

Besides, ICE's are too inefficient and wasteful to be worth preserving through exotic, expensive solutions like ammonia, borane, or other alternative fuels.

I agree. Lots and lots of people were operating on razor thin margins of income in excess of expenses, or even going into debt via cash out refinancings in order to maintain their suburban lifestyles. I have dubbed them the FWO's, Formerly Well Offs, and hell hath no fury like a FWO that just had his SUV repossessed and his suburban McMansion foreclosed.

I know very well how it happens over a period of time, I could write you a story about my ex wife and how to piss away a paid for 1m house despite a mid 6 figure income in a little over 10 years since we divorced.

It's a little like the failure to comprehend the exponential function, small harebrained decisions add up this way.

Booksmart doesn't count without the ability to very decisive as soon as a trend is identified.

Here is a little more info on the Flyak:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flyak
-------------------------------------
The Flyak is a hydrofoil adaptation to the conventional kayak. Twin hydrofoils are designed to raise the hull clear of the water and increase the speed. Speeds of up to 27.2 km·h−1 (7.6 m·s−1, 16.9 mph) can be achieved on calm water.[1]

A 200 m sprint was performed pitting Olympic athlete Andreas Gjersøe in a Flyak against the four-man Norwegian National Team in a K4 kayak on Sunday November 13, 2005.[3] This race was featured on "Beyond Tomorrow" broadcast on Wednesday February 8, 2006.[4] It was reported that the Flyak won by a boat length. A K1 sprint specialist in a conventional kayak would expect to be some five seconds slower than a four-man boat over 200 m.
------------------------------
IMO, that is a remarkable efficency increase. A four-man shell, due to its longer wetted length, has an inherent speed advantage over a shorter one-man craft.

Can a 1,000 lb electric railbike pull 40,000 lbs @ 10 mph or faster in hydro-canoes? The minimal requirement is to get the NPK to the topsoil for synchronicity for the ideal seed-harvest seasonal plant-cycles.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Being from Upstate NY(Syracuse), we had the Erie Canal.
It had a Tow-Path along side the canal from which an Oxen team(or horse) pulled the barge. VERY effective. Maybe instead a small electric "Ox" to pull it.

The MOST tonnage for the effort I think.

(Even Matt Simmons says so)

p.s.

I would love the Erie Canal(later renamed the Barge Canal) to be rebuilt up. ALL the locks are still there. It took stuff from from NYC(via Hudson River) to Albany, to the Erie Canal then all the way to Buffalo to the Great Lakes.

That HAS to be put back into service.

John

Hello Jokuhl,

Saw your reply in yesterday's Drumbeat--pretty clever Erector Set thinking--Kudos!

If you understand the efficiencies possible in my Hydrologic Cycle SpiderWebRiding System: instead of a 12 person pedal car-- you can get more distance/calorie by having the young and fit adults, say four people do the railbike peddling, with 8 people behind in a hydrofoil passenger canoe to optimally minimize weight moved by the human motors. The grandparents, toddlers, or handicapped can just enjoy the ride.

Remember: loads are moved most efficiently on water first, then rails, then rubber tires.

Hello Super390,

That is just TOO COOL--what a brilliant invention! Real fast, and terrific power to weight ratio by imitating the smooth tailwag motion of whales, dolphins, etc. Is that device more efficient than even a bicycle?

This could make above-ground canals a slam dunk!

I'm glad you found this. I'd seen another article on this German research. I didn't know the ship would be coming to my home town.

I think a kite assisting a freight hydrofoil would be fantastic. Inland canals pose a problem for kites, but the US does have this system of protected coastal waterways running down the East Coast.

Let's experiment with how long the Beluga can keep its kite deployed as it goes up the Houston Ship Channel before the cable gets tangled in a cell phone tower.