Drum(stick)Beat: November 22, 2007
Posted by Leanan on November 22, 2007 - 10:33am
Apocalyptic vision of a post-fossil fuel world
An apocalyptic vision of how the world will look after the oil runs out has been given by a top scientist.Richard Heinberg, one of the world's leading experts on oil reserves, warned that the lives of billions of people were threatened by a food crisis caused by our dependence on dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.
The Age of Petroleum draws to a close
If oil is the planet's drug, then cold turkey time is coming up way faster than we think. The moment of 'peak oil' - the moment when the maximum global petroleum production has been reached - could be just a few years away according to some estimates. Yet by 2030 the world is projected to need nearly double the quantity we are using now.
Peak Oil II: Global Peak Oil Production Can Only Decline Now
In the previous piece we saw that the history of oil exploration in the United States suggested that production rises steadily to a peak, at around 50 percent of total oil reserves. This peak also marks the onset of declining production. This decline occurs without any plateau, beginning the year after peak, and declining inexorably at a rate between 1 percent and 2 percent per year. For the United States, this peak occurred in 1970, exactly 40 years after the peak of oil discovery in 1930.Here we will apply the American experience to attempt to predict the timing of global peak oil, the time after which world oil availability will steadily decrease. The problem with such predictions is that many oil-producing countries exaggerate their true oil reserves, while Government agencies, including here in the USA, often accept such exaggerations.
Would scrap metal end the bloodshed for oil
Firstly, they made an energy-economic blunder by confusing energy and petroleum. It is true to say that there is a petroleum bottleneck looming in the horizon. But the world has started to think “out of the box” to harness other resources of energy-hence there is no energy bottleneck. People learn to use energy more efficiently and make consistent progress in finding new innovative energy sources. There are other hydrocarbon sources such as natural gas, coal, tar, sands, ethanol and others. Corresponding environmentally friendly methods are being worked out to transform them into affordable energy sources. The cost of synthetic fuel derived from the above sources likely to fall below the cost of liquid fossil fuel - petroleum products. The cost advantages become more prominent if we built in to the present cost of liquid petroleum, all the other hidden costs of US military operations in the Middle East. These hidden costs are in fact paid by the American tax payer and indirectly by the world are not readily reflected in the high price that we pay at the pump.
Russia stops Lithuania refinery oil supply
WARSAW, Poland, Nov. 22 Russia has announced it will stop supplying oil to a Polish-owned refinery in Lithuania because its "Friendship" pipeline link was damaged beyond repair.
Gazprom deal with Eni drives new wedge into hopes for EU energy unity
Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy behemoth, strengthened its grip on the European natural gas market Thursday after signing a contract with Eni, the Italian energy group, a move analysts said would further weaken the European Union's chances of establishing a united energy policy.Under the €10 billion, or $14.8 billion, deal, Eni and Gazprom established a company to build the South Stream pipeline, an underwater project linking Russia to Europe via the Black Sea.
EU refutes Gazprom accusations on gas price
The European Union's top energy official denied Thursday accusations by Russian energy giant Gazprom that the EU plan to liberalize its natural-gas market could lead to a sharp rise in prices.
Putin, Prodi hail gas pipeline deal
The leaders of Russia and Italy on Thursday hailed an agreement to push forward plans for a new southern European gas pipeline, part of Moscow's efforts to maintain its position as Europe's dominant gas supplier.
After permit uproar, BP faces challenge of cutting discharges
Every day, 20 million gallons of industrial waste carrying everything from hard hats to thick globs of oil flow from BP's Indiana refinery to its last stop before Lake Michigan: a 30-acre wastewater treatment plant.Three months ago, the London-based oil company said it would scrap the Whiting refinery's planned $3.8 billion expansion if it could not find ways to cut the amount of additional waste that project would send into the lake.
Now, as the clock ticks toward a decision on whether the project can proceed, BP PLC says it has not yet figured out how to cut its expected higher discharges. Officials say they have scoured BP's more than dozen refineries spread across the globe and come up empty-handed.
SINCE the late 1990s China has been hoovering up the world's oil and mineral deposits to sustain its rise to the top table of world manufacturing. The resource-hungry Asian country gets its raw materials from wherever it can, and asks few questions along the way. Nowhere has this been more true than in Africa; many noted the moment in 2006 when Angola surpassed Saudi Arabia as China's largest supplier of oil.
Canada: NDP yet to break its silence on peak oil
The federal Green party's B.C. organizer wonders how committed the NDP is to climate change and addressing peak oil, especially when its provincial leader, Carole James, drives a crossover SUV.
EcoDensity Initiative bends to criticism
The mayor and Toderian have promoted EcoDensity as a way to lower the consumption of resources and to enhance the livability of neighbourhoods. In conversation, Toderian often mentions the importance of global warming and planning for "peak oil", a term used to describe the point when global oil production peaks and begins to decline.
Some 350 years ago, mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal argued that it is better to wager for the existence of God than against it since the benefits of believing in God are so great. The argument became known as Pascal's Wager. Today, author Duncan Clarke asks us to make a kind of inverted Pascal's Wager in favor of continued abundance in world oil supplies. Is it a good bet?
Mexico oil output falls, natural gas imports soar
Mexican crude oil production and exports fell in October after a storm in the Gulf of Mexico disrupted output for days, while natural gas imports soared 23 percent from September, state oil monopoly Pemex said on Thursday.Pemex said oil production last month fell to 2.995 million barrels per day from 3.161 million bpd in September.
Oil exports also slipped to 1.503 million bpd from 1.679 million bpd in September, when oil operations had recovered from an earlier storm disruption in August.
China Oct oil demand up 2.4 pct amid shortage
China's apparent oil demand rose a tepid 2.4 percent in October on a year ago, as record global crude prices led to diesel shortages, but demand should pick up further as Beijing has ordered firms to boost output and imports.The yawning gap between global oil markets, now racing toward $100 a barrel, and capped domestic pump rates has forced Chinese refiners to cut processing to stem losses, sparking a widespread shortage of diesel since early October.
Bad News from Canada May Raise Short & Long Term Commodity Prices of Oil and Natural Gas
A new report from Canada’s National Energy Board says the U.S. should expect exports of Canadian natural gas to the U.S. to fall approximately 30% between now and 2015. The report from Canada’s energy regulator further warns that, due to rising costs, the U.S. should expect to import less oil from the Alberta oil sands region than previously forecast.
Oil and Gasoline Prices: The Crack Spread
When a major US refinery shuts down, why do oil prices go up? This is counterintuitive. After all, a shut-in refinery means reduced demand for oil. And less demand should mean lower price pressure, right? Wrong. Here's an account of the strange ties between oil and gasoline prices, from a Canadian's perspective.
Primer: Where does US gasoline come from?
The fact that you purchase gasoline from a given company does not necessarily mean that the gasoline was actually produced by that particular company’s refineries.
Nepal: Petrol lines return as NOC unable to pay import bills
An oil shortage has hit the market once again as the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) has not been able to bring in adequate stocks from last week.NOC spokesperson Ichchha Bikram Thapa attributed the short supply to the corporation's sliding back into the red. “Amid a sharp rise in international prices, the corporation's losses have once again mounted to Rs 370 million a month,” he told the Post.
Czechoslovakia: Diesel prices hit a record high
Even though the strengthening crown softened the oil price hike, retail diesel prices hit 31.79 Kč per liter Nov. 19 — a new record in the seven-year history of CCS monitoring. Diesel prices have been rising twice as fast as those of gasoline.
The Philippines: ‘Three-bill package’ vs oil price hikes filed at House
Five militant legislators at the House of Representatives are pushing for the immediate passage of a “three-bill package” that will address the continuing oil price increases in the country.
Mexican Oil Leak Uncontrollable
A PEMEX bulletin said two fires erupted on Tuesday made attempts to block the broken well with cement and check the hydrocarbon loss impossible.
Nigerian parliament rejects hand over of peninsula to Cameroon
Nigeria's Senate (upper house of parliament) on Thursday in Abuja rejected the handing over of the oil-rich Bakassi peninsula and other areas under Nigerian control to Cameroon, declaring the handover was unconstitutional.
A new source of water: Floating nuclear power plants
Nuclear power plants have a lot of excess heat, so why not use that heat to make fresh water?That's the idea of S.S. Verma, with the Department of Physics at the Sont Longowal Institute in Punjab, India. If located offshore near large population centers, the plants could provide cheap electricity as well as fresh water to megacities like Mumbai.
A week after Premier Dalton McGuinty said he'd consider the issue, local environmentalists are eagerly awaiting a decision about whether Ontarians, no matter where they live, will be permitted to fly clotheslines in their backyards and hang their pants, shirts, towels and unmentionables outside.
Tea, coffee, wine and soya are off the menu but cabbage pie is on as residents in the ancient kingdom of Fife take part in an experiment to reduce their carbon footprint by eating only local produce.
Win-win situations? Don't trust them
Before industrialised food kicked in, Scots enjoyed a diet based on kale (every Scotsman had his kale patch), barley, oats (porridge for breakfast is the healthiest start you can possibly have), turnips, butter and cheese - a poor diet but surprisingly well balanced and rich in complex carbohydrates and fibre. Then they were eating white bread, sausages, potatoes, condensed milk, sugar, margarine and jam. More calories, more fat, more protein, but far, far fewer nutrients. By the end of the twentieth century the Scots were the sick men of Europe; eating almost the lowest rates of fruit and vegetables in the world, and doctors were discovering that Scottish babies were being hardwired for obesity by the poor diet of their mothers.
Big growth, big fight over water
More than two years have gone by, but it still galls Joe Peck that he was ordered to shut off water to the whole city of Roslyn while the owners of the new, supersized homes just out of town got to keep watering their lawns.The big drought of 2005 was fast drying up the Yakima River, and Roslyn's water had to be rationed for farms and others downriver. But the wells of the vacation homes are exempt from the law.
Can Chávez push oil prices to $200?
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez says oil would shoot to $200 a barrel if the US invaded Iran. He and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are "united like a single fist," Mr. Chávez said earlier this week.Does Chávez, with or without Iran's help, have the power to push oil to $200 a barrel? Can he "tip the world into a recession" as an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times asserted last week?
Review of Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine"
The theory Klein develops is that the main reason for the rise of democracy and social-welfare with its old age pensions, public hospitals, public housing, and universal education after the Great Depression of the 1930s was that the beneficiaries of the robber-baron culture which had dominated until then were aware that if people were kept sufficiently miserable, they would turn to communism and socialism.But the robber-barons, land-sharks and bankers were only waiting for an opportunity to break down any political system which would stop them from having anything they wanted. Their method was tried and true: a religion embracing trickle-down economics, endless growth and total deregulation.
Markets plunge as oil heads for $100 a barrel
With the price of oil flirting yesterday with the once-unimaginable level of $100 a barrel, investors fled equities for government bonds that might better weather any economic storm.
All else being equal, oil-efficient economies are more insulated from oil price shocks than are economies that require large oil inputs to function. I'm not talking about the amount of oil consumption, but about the "oil-intensity" of an economy. New York state consumes a lot of oil and it also produces a lot of wealth. Other states, such as Louisiana, consume a lot of oil, but don't produce anywhere near as much wealth per unit of energy. (In fact, New York produces five times as much wealth per barrel of oil as Louisiana.)
Cnooc Interested in Shell Nigeria Stakes
China's Cnooc Ltd. (CEO) is looking into interests in Nigerian blocks held by Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN), according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest indication of China's rising assertiveness in Africa's oil sector.
Not enough oil troubles Cambodia's waters
Could Cambodia's much-touted energy potential, which the World Bank and others had earlier estimated in total at 2 billion barrels of oil and 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, become a bust before it ever boomed? Expectations of an energy resource bounty have now suddenly dampened as top Cambodian officials strike a more cautionary tone.
The approaching holiday shopping spree as the U.S. economy declines
As Americans head into the annual holiday shopping orgy, it is a good time to explore how our excessive spending damages us. The ten busiest shopping days of the year are between the day after Thanksgiving and two days before Christmas.
In July 2006, the world's oil rigs pumped out crude at a rate of nearly 85.5 million bbl. a day. They haven't come close since, even as prices have risen from $75 to $98 per bbl. Which raises a question of potentially epochal significance: Is it all downhill from here?It's not as if nobody predicted this. The true believers in what's called peak oil--a motley crew of survivalists, despisers of capitalism, a few billionaire investors and a lot of perfectly respectable geologists--have long cited the middle to end of this decade as a likely turning point.
New Presentations by Matthew R. Simmons, including:
● Is Bermuda Bracing For Our Pending Energy Storm?● For Lack Of A Nail, The War Was Lost: Overview of Global Oil Service And Contract Drilling Industry
● Is The Future Of Energy Sustainable?
Handy Hints For Post-Petroleum
The world now has an average of 116 people for every square mile of land surface. In foraging (hunting-and-gathering) societies, on the other hand, there is an average of only about 0.1 person for every square mile. Since the survivors will be living closer to a "foraging" way of life than to an "industrial" one, the first and most obvious step is to move to somewhere with a low population density. (Crowded countries, on the other hand, will be experiencing famine.)
Petrobras CFO: 1M b/d from Tupi 'Not Out of Reach'
A peak oil output of 1 million barrels a day at the ultra-deep Tupi field in Brazil's Santos Basin is "not out of reach," the chief financial officer of state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, said Wednesday.The field, which is in the promising pre-salt area off Brazil's coast, could reach its peak output as early as five to seven years from now, CFO Almir Barbassa said.
U.S. crude stocks up 1.4 mln barrels in latest week: API
Crude stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels to 318 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 16, American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday. Distillate stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels to 132 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks rose by 2.6 million barrels to 197.9 million barrels, API said.
EU urges investment in renewable energy
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Thursday that countries should invest more in renewable energy to mitigate the impact of expensive fossil fuels such as crude oil."It's quite obvious that the prices of oil and gas and fossil energies are indeed creating new scenarios," Barroso said at a news briefing following meetings with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Singapore.
South Africa: Rolls-Royce, Oil Firms Team Up On Synthetic Jet Fuel
IN A bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the aviation industry, aircraft manufacturer Airbus and engine maker Rolls-Royce have joined forces with petroleum companies.They will explore likely benefits of using synthetic jet fuels.
Zambia: 'We Want Lower Tariffs'
ELECTRICITY Consumers have proposed a lower electricity tariff increase than what Zesco intends to effect, which they say will be beyond the reach of many Zambians and could kill industry.Zesco managing director, Rodnie Sisala has, however, said the current tariff increase proposals were imperative if the company was to continue operations and meet the ever-soaring demand for power.
Hydrogen gas leak forces Tesoro refinery evacuation
Hokama said the problem was unrelated to lingering problems resulting from a power outage earlier this month. That rain-induced power failure forced a suspension in gasoline production at the plant, which is expected to last until mid-December.
Yates wants NASCAR to go green
This man who has so greatly prospered, who has achieved financial wealth and personal and professional acclaim beyond his wildest dreams because he produced more power than the next guy, is gravely concerned about that which gave him so much -- energy.
Clinton says Nevada could be model for solar power
With the amount of wind in Nevada each year, Clinton said the state should be packed with wind turbines and, in an energy crisis, could easily become a model for solar power.
Australia: Election silence on Peak Oil
How astonishing that just yesterday, as crude oil prices rose above a record $99USD per barrel, the Labor Party was announcing yet another billion dollars for a highway, without, as is now typical, any mention about the imperative to upgrade the nearby rail line out of the steam age. They think there are fewer votes in rail, obviously.
The UK's HSE Says Offshore Safety Record Must Improve
The offshore oil and gas industry will today be given a stark warning that its safety performance is not good enough.A report is expected to reveal that maintenance is not being given enough attention and not only is there a wide variation between companies but also within companies.
UN climate panel co-head pessimistic about progress in Bali
The co-head of the UN climate-change panel that shared this year's Nobel Peace Prize said Thursday he was pessimistic about progress at next month's global environmental summit in Bali.
Scientists to discuss ways to 'climate-proof' crops
Experts from 15 international agricultural research centres will discuss how to "climate-proof" crops, at the three-day meet starting Thursday, said Gopikrishna Warrier, spokesman for the International Crops Research Institute.
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Russian Oil Exports Plunge in September
14.5 percent drop in exports, that is hell of a drop. However it would be understandable if the report is correct and production dropped 3.7 percent. A 3.7 percent drop from August would be a drop of almost 350,000 barrels per day.
But what was Russian oil production in October. Well the report below gives mixed signals.
Oil output rising in Russia
If the October verses October figure is correct, this would put Russian production in October 07 at 9.620 mb/d in October 2007. However if the 3.7% increase over September is correct then this put October Russian production at near the same figure it was in August, or 9.390 mb/d as 3.7 percent is the exact same amount production dropped in September according to the first report above.
Guess we will just have to wait until the EIA figures come out in January to see what figures we should really use. Of course those figures will not likely be correct but they will be the closest we can ever expect to get.
Ron Patterson
They've been having terrible fuel shortages in Russia. A drop in exports even if production is rising wouldn't be too shocking, I guess.
I promise not to put off topic comments at the top of the comments section. Sorry
I posted this Moscow Times report a few days ago but it just adds to the confusion. It says Russian oil exports fell 17.4% in October! Now wait a minute, if exports were down 14.5% in September, partly because oil production dropped in September, but exports were down an even greater 17.4 percent in October, from the already sharp drop in September, then what the hell is going on? And everything is made even more puzzling since production was supposed to have hit an all time high in October.
Oil Exports Down by 17%
Actually I believe we are getting very mixed reports from Russia. But exports are a more reliable indicator than what some agencies are reporting for production. It is hard to lie about exports. I think production is falling rather sharply in Russia but only time will tell.
Ron Patterson
Since Russia's domestic consumption is a small part of its total production (six million bpd gets shipped abroad) it does not make sense that there would be shortages from declining production at this stage. I also doubt that Russia's production decline would mirror that of the North Sea or worse. As the articles state, there are hefty export tarriffs and domestic gasoline prices are comparabale to those in the USA. This is most likely political games associated with the Putin succession.
Okay Dissident, but what is Russian production doing? Have they plateaued or is production still increasing from one and one half percent to two percent per year? Or, are thy in slow decline.
But a better question would be; just how the hell can we tell?
Ron Patterson
Judging by all of the press clippings they are in a plateau state or going into one. But I do not see any evidence for 15% production drops that would explain shortages.
Why wouldn't Russia's production decline mirror North Sea's or worse?
The decline will be entirely dependent on the state of their fields(not taxes, tarriffs, and prices)...which would be poor in a conservative estimate.
Those fields had a rest since all time peak in the 90s, but recently (last 10) have been abused, mismanaged, and then nationalized(indirectly, of course).
So, worse, seems more plausible.
This site and other peak oil sites discuss differences between sea-bed oil extraction and dry land extraction. The sea-bed cases have quicker decline rates. US oil production certainly has not mirrored the North Sea. The US is a more realistic analogue for Russia than the North Sea. It is not credible that Russian oil exports could decline 15% in few months for geological reasons. The export land model does not apply either since there has been no spike in domestic demand that would eat into exports on this scale. The validity of ELM and future natural production declines are besides the point for the current shortage and oil export drop situation.
Yes...and NO!
Yes, it will not drop 15% in a few months, and it's model will not *normally* mirror a sea-bed extraction.
However, the age (very old) and state of fields suggests *strongly* that Russian fields will decline rapidly and at a greater rate than a well managed group of fields.
I don't think ELM is relevant to the immediate comment.
One would tend to think that the extraction techniques used might also have some bearing on this.
Reading Lukoil's old annual reports, they were mostly using hydrofracturing (physical EOR) for their Enhanced Oil Recovery. Much of the gains for production was coming from EOR, but I think the growth trend from 2003->2004 was already abating. In the annual 2006, 27% of Lukoil's Russian oil field production came from EOR wells.
Maybe it is export land model. But maybe those figures are for 12 months, and october shares most of the september period.
Russia's consumption, relative to production, is on the high side about 33% (total liquids). Also, as noted below our model indicates a rapid production decline, at least in the mature basins, and our middle case indicates that Russia will hit zero net exports in 17 years.
But you can not expect a 15% drop in exports over the timescale of a few months. Assuming the production has changed 0% over the last year would require that there was a 15% increase in domestic consumption. Automobile/truck use is nowhere near this growth rate in Russia. Of course, one can choose to believe that there is a real decline rate of over 10% in Russia. Since this rate is not going to drop (bar significant new discoveries) it should be pretty clear in the next three years if such a rate is realistic since it will wipe out exports much quicker than in 17 years.
edit: it would be more like a 30% increase in consumption not 15% since the consumption is half of the exports.
The key point about the Russian production base is that it is by and large very old. IMO, the rebound in recent years was just making up for what was not produced after the Soviet collapse. So, when the production decline begins, it will probably be very abrupt.
It's easy to do some "what if' scenarios. Round off 2006 total liquids production to 10 mbpd and consumption to 3 mbpd.
At a -5%year decline rate and a +5%/year rate of increase in consumption, using the Rule of 72 production would be down to 5 mbpd in 14 years and consumption would be up to 6 mbpd in 14 years--net importer status.
WT, a couple more months and you can probably add another notch to your belt/rig/pump.
Has anyone been watching OECD stocks?
That would have to have an impact on OECD stocks eventually.
Delays in reporting combined with the normal seasonal downtrend Aug -> Dec mean it might be hard to tell - for a little while...
Come the Jan figure reported in mid-March, I think we might start to see something irrefutable.
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
Based on EIA data, Russia showed a small net export decline from 2005 to 2006. Following is the Russian portion of the working draft of our net export paper:
I wonder if the tax (duty) increase for exports has made it more profitable to sell inside Russia than outside.
For example, the export duty is now about $250/ton which is, if metric, about 7.3 barrels (at 33 degrees API), which means the tax costs $34/barrel.
The duty is going up to $275/ton Dec. 1 which would increase the per-barrel costs by a few dollars per barrel (~$3.40).
What I don't know is when in the process the duty is applied, I believe it is just prior to shipment.
This was the first thing I googled when I'd read your post..
'Russia has begun plans for a strategic petroleum reserve. Analysts estimate the size of the Russian SPR would be around 78 million barrels' ..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves
- and Wiki's sources went to this 12/02/05 article..
http://www.energybulletin.net/11386.html
Just a thought.. It may be classic 'profiling', but I'm not surprised to see sudden energy changes coming from Putin's govt.
Bob
Hello TOD'rs,
Leanan, et al. you guys have been a huge source of info...,
I've been lurking here for many months and can't get enough, my comment, is, Jeff (WT) is a true oricle, and here we go ELM coming true...
Stand up strait, b4 it's too late...
Jeff C.
a motley crew indeed
Clearly, they have been lurking here for some time...
That is quite the article that you quoted from Time magazine.
I wonder what impact this article, plus the WSJ article on Monday, will have. I am wondering if we will start seeing many articles along this line in different locations. Will these articles have an impact on our already teetering financial system?
Someone (was it Bart at EB?) predicted that the WSJ article would open the floodgates for the rest of the MSM to cover peak oil.
I don't know if it will have an effect on the financial system, though. I just don't see the captains of industry connecting those dots. I suspect they'll see peak oil as an opportunity to make money investing in renewable energy, not a real threat to growth.
What other PP alliterations can the English majors at Time pump from their pens in order to resonate with the mindless masses?
How about "Popular Peakism" as a name of a new magazine?
Pre-Peak Pandemonium?
Post-Peak Price Pains?
Preposterous Predictions by the Public Panicking Peakist Prophets?
It's really "pimp" of the Time poets to let the populace know that the pessimistic peakists are just blowing Chicken Little smoke:
Oh good. Even though we the English majors never studied thermodynamics, we are ever vigilent and ever hopeful that "they" the techno-geeks will save capitalism with rapid rejuvenation through inevitable "innovation" and indigenous ingenuity. Suffering Succotash.
I said this in the thread in the yesterdays drumbeat, but I really don't think the spin you're putting on that paragraph is the one intended, or the one most people will take from it.
I think further up the article, he is making the point that no matter how 'peakists' are seen (survivalists, anti-capitalists) not only have they got the prediction right, but they include successful businessfolk (billionaires) and scientists (geologists).
Then in this ultimate paragraph, he says these people who have been derided, but might just be worth listening too, are worried about what's coming next. He's saying we should listen to these warnings of war and economic breakdown, because they might be right about that, just like it looks increasingly like there were right about the peak.
Then he goes on to talk about the alternatives as hopeful in a way that sounds rather pandorian in nature - certainly not to imply that these 'hopefulists' are closer to reality that the 'peakists'
I've read and re-read the article, and going through it from the top, with the feel of it, I just really don't see how you get your conclusions from that ultimate paragraph.
I get TIME, the MSM, cautioning the masses about potentially pending oil related TEOTWAWKI, against some forlorn 'hope' that we will be saved by the same rapid advances in conservation that everyone knows have failed to materialise for global warming, despite the boundless hope.
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
As the offender from yesterday's Drumbeat, I'm eating crow today instead of turkey...
I'm so used to people thinking I'm crazy about this peak oil stuff that it seems I can't recognize when someone other than a TODer is actually agreeing with me. This might take some getting used to.
I agree. It is one of the first examples of a story published in the really MSM where the author seems to get it about peak oil. Maybe we are getting past the denial phase. Maybe the facts are becoming overwhelming.
Proper Prior Planning Potentially Prevents Pathetic Post Peak Performance
Fail to plan and plan to fail...
"The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression"
- John Harvey-Jones
Going to use that quote with my family! Thanks.
"A more hopeful take is that innovation is the essential fuel of modern capitalism and that high oil prices will drive rapid advances in conservation and alternative energy."
As Kunstler sometimes harangues "Innovation is not energy."
Look I've about had enough of this gratuitous bashing of English majors. It is one of my (many) secret shames that I actually have a degree in English.
SHAME! SHAME! How could I have taken a degree with so little thought to the future of Civilisation? What was I thinking? and etc.
Anyway to counter the constant harping about English majors writing newspaper articles (how dare they!) I have only one thought experiment to offer you:
[best Rod Serling voice]
Imagine if you will a copy of the New York Times written by a pack of engineers. You are trapped in a room with no doors or windows. It is the only object in an otherwise featureless cube. You open the paper to read a review of the New York City Ballet's performance of Swan Lake. Before you lies a sea of equations and diagrams, a telling analysis of the thrust to weight ratio of the lead dancer's calf muscles, and a detailed analysis of the structural elements of the stage...you scream, but there is no escape.
[cue Twilight Zone music]
bados
Sounds great! Sign me up!! :-D
The boot is on the other foot...
I have noticed that in general supposedly educated people can be ignorant as they like about maths or science, but this is not counted against them. But if you are ignorant about grammar or arts... you are regarded as a dunce.
Sure, journalists have perfect spelling and grammar, but when it comes to numbers it's like they are meaningless sequences of digits, enabling them to write:
"The U.S. Air Force is the biggest military user of oil by far, requiring 219 million barrels of jet fuel a day.
...
The U.S. consumes 20 million barrels of oil a day"
-- Globe and Mail
It's like writing "Hamlet was written by Jane Austen".
I guess journalists get away with it, because the general public are generally innumerate too.
C.P. Snow was right about the need for third culture.
The western intellectual though had been too long overrun by humanist intellectuals who did not understand natural or quantitative sciences nor did they think very highly of them.
Today, on the other hand, we have run (and are still running) mostly into the opposite direction: if you are innumerate you are a worthless stupid that can be taken advantage of (and serves you right). If it can be counted, it can be monetized and only people who can handle numbers, deserve to win.
There has got to be a way that merges these two: a longer term appreciation of history, culture and societal dynamics, while understanding physics, biology, chemistry, math & stat (with a bit less emphasis on broken economics, I might add).
Not to mention, appreciation and use of arts as one important feature of human existence.
But no, quickly we succumb to bashing the other, because we do not understand it or have use for it.
And I'm personally at least as guilty as the next guy/gal, my favorite annoyance just happens to be modern (non-finite) growth economics.
But then again, I believe that bunch really is mostly clueless, both from quantitative/physical and cultural/historical point of view :)
SamuM,
Do yourself a favor and repeat this every morning:
I am sheeple too,
I am sheeple too,
I am sheeple too.
When you finally understand that we all are cursed by a biological organ that was unintelligently designed by random forces of evolution (the human brain), only then will you understand why those "other" sheeple are so god damned stupid and you will empathize with them a bit. It's not their fault. Forgive them. They were made that way.
Sheeple we are,
Born near a nice star,
Sucking up oil out of a pit,
Thinking that makes us the real big sh...
You mean only if you are scientist you have no escape.
If you are an English major, escape is as easy as a half sliced pie.
You take the newspaper and rip it in half.
Two halves make a hole right?
So you climb out of the hole.
Bados,
Just joshing you of course.
For me personally, life took a bunch of accidental detours. I started off as an engineering major but wound up in a career path that called for knowing how to string a bunch of words together. Along the path I witnessed English teachers deriding engineers by calling them slide rule jocks and science teachers bashing their liberal arts brethren by calling them poetic dreamers.
Bottom line is that we all think we're "special".
We're not.
And quite frankly, Mother Nature doesn't give a damn.
"I just don't see the captains of industry connecting those dots."
Maybe not, but the dots are connected in the Related Articles section to the left of the Time article. At least by proximity of the titles. :-)
"How Dumb Is Your Bank?" and "Why the Dollar Is a 98-lb. Weakling"
More than anything, its imperative that the banks get smart. They are the people that lend money out for decades in the future. They have huge incentive.
leanan if like others here have pointed out that so called 'renewable energy' is considered the next growth bubble like housing was. since it's deflating then doesn't it make since that they would use these peak oil story's just to pump up the new bubble? after all the religion of the day is growth and it's un-fettered continence. The actual impact of peak oil is the end of the growth economy to what can be considered a constantly shrinking one.
after all the religion of the day is growth and it's un-fettered continence.
It will be sold as Growing Smaller
Selling LocalMFG as Small tier MFG the new growth industry.
Like all other topics the when the SHTF the MSM will report peak oil as if they've been on top of it for years. Look at Danny boy Yergin - that talk of $38 oil has been wiped clean from his lips like he never uttered them. Soon he'll out stating that he's been predicting imminent peak oil for years, but the truth will catch up to him. We'll make sure of that!
Someone (was it Bart at EB?) predicted that the WSJ article would open the floodgates for the rest of the MSM to cover peak oil.
I Think it Tom Whipple who said that in his latest.
Yup, Whipple said "The Journal’s story marks an important turning point in the public’s understanding of peak oil. Now that the ice has been broken by the flagship of the financial press, it will not be long before others muster the courage to explore and discuss the ramifications of “plateauing” oil. This cannot be a bad thing, for as the notion that we are entering the greatest paradigm shift of the last 100 years sinks in, people can start preparing for it." He may be right - publishers may prattle about taking risks, but for major work, they prefer a sure thing, a trail blazed by somebody else.
My wife is a local physician who's been trying to get her local colleagues who run the local hospital to take energy supplies and security seriously. She rides her bike to work, tries to set examples. She is well regarded in her profession but almost totally ignored when she pipes up about any concern regarding peak oil and the ramifications for health care.
Because of this, business as usual goes on and the hospital foundation is asking us to donate large sums of money for a new hospital that will use even more energy than the current, old one, which also happens to have windows and doors and faucets that are manually operated. The new one, though designed to be "green," will be bigger, automated, climate controlled, and on the outskirts of town so it is more energy costly to get to for most people. Plus it covers the best ag land that formerly existed around here.
And then, just the other day, another physician handed her a copy of the WSJ article and said that he was worried. It took a particular article in the source of news he knows and trusts to break his trance. Despite the fact that my wife and I know these people, socialize with them, and they seem to like us...I have come to believe that up to know we have been tolerated oddities rather than looked upon as prophetic sages.
Will this all change now?
Did you see what happened to the stock markets Wednesday, Leanan? In my opinion, the dots are getting connected.
In one of Matt Simmons' recent interviews, the interviewer asked him what people should be investing in to make money on renewable energy. Simmons said that, unfortunately, he didn't have anything to recommend. He said there was already a lot more money available out there than good ideas. He said his own energy think tank was heavily invested in research on oil from algae, but that it was nowhere near ready for further investment to bring to the market.
In my opinion, people with the kind of money necessary to jump start alternatives recognize the truth of what Simmons is saying.
I think those are different dots. People are worried about a possible recession, and high energy prices are part of it, but I don't think they see it as any different from a BAU "normal" recession.
They will use PO to deflect blame from the real guilty parties in the economic train wreck that is less then 1Q away.
A better article than the WSJ one IMHO.
If it is published in the actual magazine, I may buy a bunch and start handing them out.
I don't know about better, but Time spoke to the flat oil production over the last 24 months, and it being down below previous peak.
They didn't mention net exports, but perhaps that's for the next story to be written in the MSM as this reality unfolds. And they didn't mention discoveries or show the well-publicized XOM chart of timeline on discoveries and production, or in words that the world is producing 2 barrels of oil for every one discovered. Or that this is unsustainable.
Finally, they talked about there being plenty of oil. Where do they get that from? If IEA or EIA predicts oil production at some 110 mbpd in some future, that is based primarily on demand. What will the world look like when this insatiable demand is unmet. Pretty grim for the developing countries. Certainly aggression among the OECD and towards producing nations if one's stated policy is 'our' way of life is non-negotible.
But much credit should be given to Time for publishing this story, and hope they follow up on it with more detail.
I'm wondering if the timing of recent events won't also help improve the depth and quality of the articles to come.
I'm guessing that as oil approached $100, editors all over the world assigned reporters to put something together to mark the occasion, but when that magic number was not reached, the articles were parked for later publication.
In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal talks openly about peak oil.
Now, perhaps most of the editors and reporters will just go with what they have, but a few might take another look...
Ha! Ahead of what schedule? Oh the schedule that you've been sold by industry propagandists with an interest in avoiding facts?
Yup. Ahead of that schedule.
Well, I'm not American, however, let me take this opportunity to say an honestly very deep-felt Thank You to Leanan, PG and the crew of TOD, and several of the key contributors (I'd list everyone individually, but be scared of leaving someone out).
I'm thankful to Aleklett and Campbell, and the folk behind PeakOil.com.
It's overly-dramatic, but there's a possibility, if we are facing TEOTWAWKI, that those above might be part of the reason I get to live through it (touch-fake-grain-formica).
And that's no small reason to be thankful.
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
Jaymax beat me to it this year!
I hope we all have things to be thankful for but once again, I would like to thank Leanan for all her hard work and dedication making the drumbeat happen EVERY DAY.
(this is the part where everyone stands up and claps).
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
clap, clap, clap. (then sits down)
Being in Hawaii you guys always beat me to it. Love you Leanan! There are many invaluable posters and critics on this site, but one pulls it all together. Happy Thanksgiving!!
Yes, pass some more virtual stuffing, cranberries, and turkey Leanan's way. She's always working hard and must be hungry. Thanks you for the work you do for us, on Thanksgiving and always.
Here Here
Thank You Leanan, PG, and everyone who posts here and sister sites (thank you Stoneleigh).
Clap Clap Clap Clap
John Carr
Hear, Hear!
Bob
Fuel-cell firms shifting focus
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
The "Peak Possibilities" article in Time Magazine, was a much better article than the WSJ one. They even used the term "peak lite".
Of course location is always important. From looking at the link "http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1686824,00.html", it looks like it was actually in the physical magazine. Rather than just a momentary blip on their web page.
Maybe there is some hope after all. (Although as an eternal pessimist, that is probably just the holidays talking.)
It doesn't say "web exclusive," and the article is listed in the magazine table of contents.
I noticed the "peak lite" thing, too. Maybe they interviewed Robert.
If this keeps up, I may have to bubble over with optimism, (which is soooo not me).
"I noticed the "peak lite" thing, too. Maybe they interviewed Robert."
Some time within the past couple of days RR posted a laundry list of people who'd visited his site...they may simply have gotten it from there.
Edit: Though this does suggest someone at that magazine is doing a little digging, which is a good thing.
Here is part of a short interview with Lynn Westfall per the Drum(Stick)beat posted article: 'Peak Possibilities'
My thanksgiving shopping bag and I go by bus so I couldn't very well comment.
Good on em.
Pretty even presentation...OPEC, speculators with a little doom thrown in. Just about as perfect as I could ever expect from MSM.
They even POOP POOP the Petrobas find. Since in reality it will not have a *significant* effect. (even at the very optimistic 1MMBPD in 8-10 years, and if we decline at only 0.5% in those 8 years, we will be down ~4MMBPD. Anyone think it will be only 0.5%, and that is neglecting net export reductions)
If anything, and if they are smart it may secure Brazil's internal energy future a bit better.
Here's hoping this is a trend in MSM.
Couple of items on Truthout today.
Give Thanks for Oil - and OPEC
By Kelpie Wilson
And an article published last week in The Nation —
Beyond the Age of Petroleum
By Michael T. Klare, The Nation
Apologies, Leanan, if we have already discussed that second one. And thanks.
Actually, both of them have been previously posted here. :)
D'OH! My ever-shortening attention span.
The Kelpie Wilson essay seemed relevant today, though.
"oil has fueled a 50-year-long party in the industrialized West that has left us with an unsustainable economy that is wrecking the planet." Too true! And all efforts to find ways to keep feeding mankind's voracious appetite for perpetual economic growth will just accelerate the decimation of our home. We can hope peak oil will be a real wake-up call, but we have much work to do to continue educating the public about "limits to growth."
Dave Gardner
Producer/Director
Hooked on Growth: Our Misguided Quest for Prosperity
www.growthbusters.com
I got freaked out reading the Time article as a qutoe from simmons sounded just like what I said yesterday on TOD Europe. Sometimes this is like telepathy or something where you know waht's gonna happen before it does. Cool.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3263#comments
"Draconian conservation measures, etc. would be imposed to maintain this regimen to avoid energy wars."
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1686824,00.html
Matt Simmons
"We've got to embrace some conservation practices that are draconian, or we will be at war with each other."
“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24
'draconian conservation measures'
That is why we will start getting measured up for our biometric National ID cards soon. (irrespective of how incompetent UKGov is regarding sensitive data)
No matter who objects. ID cards will come and then,
Rationing of food and fuel will come.
To your biometric ID cards and food and fuel rationing, we might add (in no particular order):
Massive government data bases on all citizens and immigrant 'guest workers', limited rationed health care for the masses and private medical facilities for the elite, gated enclaves protected by private security firms for the elite and decaying crime-ridden communities patroled by thuggish Iraq War-veteran cops, the merging of the military and the police, the increase of for-profit prisons and mass detention centers run by outfits like Blackwater, pre-emptive arrest and indefinite detention without trial for 'enemies of the state', flagrant corporate/government corpuption, a thriving black market, totally government controlled media, chronic shortages and accompanying civil unrest, special militarist gestapo-style units to put down such unrest, crumbling infrastructure, perpetual nation state of emergency, sham elections, perpetual state of low-intensity war.
If you liked living in the former Soviet Union during the 1950s, you're going to love living in the USA circa 2025!
Being it's Thanksgiving I'm just thankful that I probably won't live to see much of this and that I have a well-stocked liquor cabinet that I will visit the instant I log off.
What year do you see the Internet effectively being shut down for communication?
joule, MUDLOGGER,
Interesting observations. A question - would a biometric ID system work without a functioning electricity grid? I ask this because I think the grid could be an early casualty due to the already rising incidence of pilfering. In my area church roofs and manhole covers in roads are being stolen. A lot of our power is transmitted through overhead lines, and these, during blackouts, could likewise be vulnerable. I understand readers/scanners could be in the form of portable battery powered units, but would this be enough?
Food and fuel rationing does seem to be the best way to go, and some form of personal identification will be required for this.
I would be interested to read how others would view an unfolding grid collapse. Would certain regions, say cities, be given priority? What activities would take place in these areas? Much current city centre activity is related to retail and office work which, one would assume, there would be less requirement for in the future. We are likely to need to move back into manufacturing and processing very quickly. Are we, and our infrastructure, up to this?
As infrastructure hits grow with the prices for metals, I would expect a 'Draconian' Crackdown on the ability to buy and sell metals, actually. Of course, like any Prohibition attempt, it would strengthen both Black Markets and Mobs who jump onto this new contraband.
I think the digital-people-controls sound scarier, but may be a source of more comedy than actual repression, as 'The Machines' show their disdain for human intention, and their reverence of Complexity. No, I think it will be enough to have control of the Food, Water and Money.
'Most people think if you put honest numbers into a machine, you'll get honest numbers out. So did I until I met a computer with a sense of Humor.'
-Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress
Bob
Ellie,
Biometric ID will require electricity, internet / computational power and all other terchnologies associated with modern communication.
The powers that be are not planning on this being down at all and plan on the basis of this being around for a while.
Right now they are planning for a new , third runway at Heathrow and Trumps Golf course and tourist complex in Aberdeenshire.
So yes, they will design ID cards and data bases around modern life, and no the same ID cards will not work if the juice is not there to make it work.
But we will still get the Cards...
Thanks for the replies.
The likely growing Black Markets in essentials and potential for growth in organised crime are one of many alarming aspects of collapse.
I had started to wonder who the 'elites in gated communities' are likely to be given that currently, in large part, elites are characterised by those with large amounts of money. With a monetary crisis, elites are likely to be fewer in number and comprise of landowners, those owning means of production of food and other essentials, and government and state officials. I had forgotten criminals!
With regard to the insane building plans of the powers that be, I find it inconceivable that government on some level does not know what is coming. If not the public face of MPs and ministers, then civil servants and the security services surely have some awareness. Do they not talk to each other, or is it all down to denial as discussed downthread?
edit: I have realised that my original message may read as though I am in favour of biometric ID cards. I am not!
Re: Chavez pushing oil to $200, does he have the power?
ANSWER: YES!
USA currently importing ~1.4MMBPD(IIRC) from Mr. Chavez.
Turning off that tap with no other swing producer available would probably do the trick.
So, not really an idle threat.
It is my prediction that this “outing of peak oil” in the MSM
combined with the financial crisis which tptb can no longer mask
will prompt our Fearful Leader The Shrub to step up to the podium and announce that America is in trouble and that it is the DUTY of all citizens to
go out and SHOP GREEN like you have never shopped before!
I assume you are joking. The WSJ article told you how the right (and the Democrats too, in all probability) will deal with supply problems... by spending money on weapons and by sending the military to support production and supply lines.
It will all be interpreted as a security issue that mandates ever greater efforts to maintain military hegemony around the world.
The Pemex http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=11&catid=67&cont...
"> Monthly Petroleum Statistics are out for October. Mexican production was down 166,000 barrels per day, September to October.
Ron Patterson
Ron,
Do you have ANY good news TODAY? :P
Good news does not exist anymore. There is only bad news and worse news.
It is very bad news that the world will, in about 50 years or less, almost completely run out of oil. Yes, that is very bad news. But it would be even worse news if the oil would last for another hundred years. The population would continue to explode and we would completely destroy the earth along with most other species alive today. Then when the collapse did come, and it would come, the suffering and misery would be many times worse and would leave the world far more barren than if the collapse happened sooner.
The only thing that could possibly be worse than peak oil would be no peak oil.
Ron Patterson
Your linky no clicky
Monthly Petroleum Statistics
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Dr. William Reese, the originator of this term, on CBC Radio One. The interview lasts about 20 minutes:
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/
See Radio One, "Sounds Like Canada", at 10:09 am Pacific time.
Amidst the Busiest Travel Day of the Year
A look on the ground during year three of the oil-production peak-plateau.
Yesterday afternoon, I joined the 40 million or so Americans who traveled more than 50 miles one-way for the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Despite the high gasoline prices and the gloomy economic situation, the roads and stores were packed. Cars filled the First Alternative Co Op parking lot, and only luck of timing provided me with a slot--right in front of the entrance, next to the banged-up bike shed. A sign on the door indicated that the store would be closed for Thanksgiving, a fact that probably accounted for some of the urgency to gather food. Fortunately, I found my items quickly and managed to get into a fast line.
Back in my car, with the yellow low-angle sun streaming cheerfully through the windows, I quickly made my way onto the Corvallis surface streets, only to find that a squeeze of vehicles had jammed-up downtown. Getting to King Tin proved to be slower than usual, but not completely annoying. After my restaurant pick-up, I rolled back into the city center and into near gridlock. The stretch of Van Buren just before the bridge, with its short blocks and numerous streetlights, proved to be a nightmare. A familiar pain for any long-time Corvallis resident, but amplified to near-absurdity this Thanksgiving Eve by a mad rush out of town. At one point, the signals went through three cycles before my traffic line budged. Once I got through the crush, the trip down Highway 34 to I-5, though heavy with car and SUV, went smoothly, with speeds up to the 55 mph limit at times. A few recreational vehicles and other traffic situation created brief bottleneck, but slow-downs were infrequent and short-lived.
In a quest for coffee, I stopped at the Chevron near I-5 in Albany and wandered into a madhouse. During the day, an invasion had ensued: Vehicles of all types surrounded the food center. The pumps were full-up as people sought that all-important $3.15/gal fill-up. California license plates were surprisingly common, with soft-blue Washington tags scattered among the familiar Oregon Douglas-firs. Inside, a line of people waited for the bathroom. So many people filled the small store that I had to ask two gentlemen who had camped in front of the coffee table to move out of the way. A mom with a young blond-haired girl squeezed past me. The toddler loudly exclaimed she didn't want to go potty as they pressed their way to the facilities. As I waited my turn, coffee in hand, many items passed over the checkout counter. Business seemed brisk, though I had no idea how it compared to last year.
From the looks of everything, it appeared that this Thanksgiving Holiday was progressing in the business-as-usual fashion: A frenzied rush of fossil-fuel reducing activities. As I stood in line, I wondered just how many more holidays would be like this? Given recent surges in oil prices, the world's three-year oil-production plateau, and a US economy that apparently had gone haywire, even Thanksgiving 2008 seemed somewhat of a question mark. Interesting times indeed.
I returned to the road. Soon the onramp to I-5 brought me to a big slowdown on the superslab. I have never before encountered stop-and-go traffic in the vicinity of Albany and Millersburg. A total LA nightmare out in the Mid-Willamette Valley farm country. At that moment, I knew the trip take much longer than normal. And it did--nearly twice that of a typical day, with numerous slowdowns along much of the route. Between the vehicular density-waves, I did achieve the speed limit, 65 mph. These episodes didn't last long enough for me to switch to cruise control.
A major rear-ender that left two cars immobilized in my lane near the I-5 and 217 junction capped off my travel experience. The backup left me parked for some minutes before I could merge into traffic and squeeze by. Police had arrived by the time I reached the wreck. One driver stood frozen in front of his smashed Honda Accord with both hands on the hood. Maybe he had been in an indignant mood.
All said, it's quite a relief to be off the road, in the house and with my daughter. Indeed, I think its time to get off the keyboard and play.
-best,
graywulffe in (Tigard), OR
Denial Makes the World Go Round
This I discovered in my late-20's and it absolutely floored me. Gone forthwith was any naivety about the cardinal virtues being the key to a happy existence or a thriving society. Not only are we deeply wired to be dishonest, we are also wired to believe our own falsehoods and to accept tons of crap from others. We instinctively sell and are willingly sold.
Sadly, I'm one of those eccentrics who just can't give up what reality bias they've painfully acquired. Largely because reality is too amazing. It's addictive. Yes, it's frequently ghastly beyond imagination and even beyond tolerance. But it's surprising and twisted in completely unexpected ways and, as such, does have its consolations.
But I'll stick my neck out and claim that those that parade their lack of denial as a virtue still haven't guessed how twisted their lovely universe is.... (And it will make fools of us all.)
For instance, I see no evidence that more than an occasional confused visit to reality improves one's fitness in the reproductive sense. We seers of what IS are likely dead-end mutants, freaks with a fading future. Are we the only ones that don't know? The others sense it.
In the long run, the fantasists win!
I 'liked' this bit:
I'm tempted to try, but I think I'm ultimately more fearful than tempted.
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
"If you can't take a little bloody nose, maybe you should go back home and crawl under your bed. It's not safe out here. It's wondrous. With treasures to satiate desires both subtle and gross. But it's not for the timid." -- Q, Star Trek TNG
Re. article, Yes, denial (or willfull blindness or conscious forgiveness or pretended ignorance, etc.) serves an important function in our social lives. As do lies, for ex. Studies show that a fair % of lies are not self-serving but altruistic, maybe 25% (it is hard to give an average; some lies are both at once..) But all that holds for face interaction - individuals, or what happens in small groups. Our overt social dealings are supposed to run smoothly, and we all collaborate to keep things chugging along pleasantly, with denial, politeness, kindness, protective measures, self-sacrifice, etc. Humans do this because their nature is deeply cooperative, or -I prefer- collaborative. And that cooperation is necessary, or useful (evolution has selected for it) so that groups can act cohesively - plan, coordinate, solve problems, act. So it is really unclear to what extent ‘denial’ - which is a Freudian notion that has entered mainstream and pop psychology - plays a role in societal peak oil awareness.
It has also been said humans prefer to obscure or ignore (deny) current or projected problems, negative events, etc. when they either know or intuitively feel they are powerless to effect any change.
"Studies show that a fair % of lies are not self-serving but altruistic, maybe 25%"
Never seen any such studies, but I wonder how much bias is present on behalf of the researchers as to what altruism is? Or did they just mean that the person lying "thought" is was for a good cause?
Is that altruism really just one person trying to impose their values/beliefs on another person?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Well it is all rather murky...but women in the US, as an ex. should seem perfectly understandable.. tell lies like:
Granpa is not going to die right now; Annie did the best she could for her kids; Your father is a good man; Alicia did not beat up Joey (family matters); Bart never stole that diamond ring; Your auntie did not try to kill a sheriff; etc. etc.
Are these lies? The pysch. definition, is yes, they are, if they express a message with is contrary to what the person ‘truly’ believes. They are ‘keep the peace’ lies, so they are both altruistic, to spare others from pain and strife, and self-serving, to ensure harmony and smooth interaction. Yes, they, as all of us, think it is in a good cause.
Happy Thanksgiving, TOD'ers!
1,3 million New Yorkers live in homes without enough food to eat (!)
… 1/6 of population.. is this claim accurate ? God save America!
As a general rule any info put out by advocates or activists of any kind (even one's favourite causes) is spun to death or outright false.
There is an obesity epidemic among the starving poor of America!
George, obesity is often a sign of malnutrition.
Thats a new one. Starving Ethiopian children with just thin bones and dried skin are malnourished.
Jews in concentration camps in WW-II, adults and children, with skin and bones were malnourished.
Or perhaps, even now images of thin starving Indians (in some locations and at various times) are malnourished.
However, 300-500 lb, POOR Americans slaving away eating at $5.99 all-you-can-eat meat, potatoes, veggies, ice-cream places are not malnourished. They are just poor eaters or overeaters.
Or they could buy some starchy food at the local Walmart (bread, rice, potatoes) ($2-4) and a packet of frozen peas (1lb) for $0.99, a few onions, some vegetable oil and have a perfectly healthy meal for the entire family.
Malnourished != undernourished?
Obesity in the West is malnutrition, because their diets are, shock horror, pretty crap. Just because they're not digesting their stomachs in throes of hunger based agony does not mean they are not malnourished.
Huh.
-- In 2006, 89 percent of U.S. households were food secure throughout the entire year. The remaining households (10.9 percent) were food insecure at least some time during that year, essentially unchanged from 11.0 percent in 2005
--The prevalence of very low food security was 4.0 percent of households.
from usda
More than 38 million Americans go hungry, including nearly 14 million children ...
from Medical News, based on the 2004 USDA report. link
I have heard and question this assumption. Areas of the world such as Africa and areas of Asia where people suffer from actual malnutrition do not have large numbers of large people. What we have is a relative abundance of high calorie foods generally available even to the poor. These foods are not the healthiest, fresh fruit and vegetables may be hard to find, but the problem isn't malnutrition. They would be healthier if they ate less and were more active.
I think this is a misunderstanding. Bloated bellies are a sign of malnutrition. This is due to intestinal parasites and these parasites are due to a much lowered immune system. Those bloated bellies are accompanied by spindly arms and legs and a face that looks like it is almost a skull. This is a sure sign of malnutrition.
Obesity is a sign of lots of food with little or no exercise.
Obesity is actually an evolutionary survival mechanism. If you can store calories in the form of fat, you are much more likely to survive very hard times than someone who cannot store calories as fat. In historical times, during a severe crop failure, only those with large stores of fat were able to survive.
Ron Patterson
"Obesity is actually an evolutionary survival mechanism. If you can store calories in the form of fat, you are much more likely to survive very hard times than someone who cannot store calories as fat. In historical times, during a severe crop failure, only those with large stores of fat were able to survive."
I would hazard that those who were obese did not survive hard times. However, storing "some" fat does have advantages. Most animals can become obese - just look at some people's cats or dogs - but I suspect it is a runaway side-effect of being able to store "some" fat. For people, I think most obesity stems from being able to avoid hard labour and having an oversupply of crappy food.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Exactly. I think the other respondents to this post are conflating starvation or undernourishment with malnutrition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malnutrition
You can be both starved and malnourished, but you can also be obese and be malnourished. It doesn't matter how many fried chicken wings and bon bons you eat, you will never be well nourished unless you have a reasonably balanced diet.
The 1.3 million New Yorkers without enough food seems very high, though... that one line makes it sound like they are starving...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I know perhaps one hundred obese people. They ALL get plenty to eat. They just love those "all you can eat" places that charge a flat fee. They will embarrass you with how many times they go back for seconds, and thirds, and fourths....
Obese people are people that simply eat too much and get far too little exercise.
I think some people confuse bloated bellies with obesity. The former is a sign of malnourishment, the latter is largely caused by overeating and under exercising. Of course some people have a thyroid problem.
But it is much easier for some people to become obese than others. It is genetic, an evolutionary survival mechanism. The ability to store calories as fat enhances ones chances of survival in times of famine.
Ron Patterson
"It is genetic, an evolutionary survival mechanism. The ability to store calories as fat enhances ones chances of survival in times of famine."
Yep, the ability to store "some" fat is a survival mechanism, but obesity is still a common sign of malnourishment - as opposed to undernourishment, which is what you are talking about when you mention bloated bellies.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
You'd be shocked how little effect exercise truly has on weight.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/magazine/story/0,,2198862,00.html
Practically zilch according to this. They had people running marathons and it made no difference.
It is all about what and how much you eat.
Bados
ON CNBC (12Noon), Trump is on...
He is saying that the worst is over in Real Estate, and advising investors in the audience to start buying.
He says he buying now.
He says the bottom will hit in 6 months.
*&^%$&*! This is why I get annoyed at singular focus viewpoints. BIG PICTURE is needed. And he is missing it...entirely.
Consensus appears to be recession in the next 6-8 months (need 6 months of data). So, how does this help the housing market. Then credit crisis, energy crisis, currency crisis...and that is just the next 6 months.
Anyone recall him LOSING all his money in the early 90s(or was it late 80s)...back then is was overly optimistic and didn't see the signs.
Guess he hasn't learned from his past well.
Peak: You make good points but Trump is a salesman-what he says and what he believes are seldom the same thing.
No doubt...but then I guess he selling a load of *#^& to a few hundred thousand people at the moment.
But, his *salesman* skills have failed him before (utterly), so I suggest he may have missed the mark again.
Warren Buffet he is NOT!
Trump is a smarter man than that. Likely he's well aware that RE market is in the shitter for years on out. He's trying to blow hot air up public's *ss hoping to counter the endless river of bad RE news. This is a measure of how desperate RE industry is and no doubt Trump is smarting from RE fallout as well.
As mentioned above, definitely he could be part of the triangle...just shovelling a little good news.
Based on his past performance, I still put 50/50 that he *really* doesn't have a clue.
Woke up to CNBC this morning in the UK with "Peak Oil" across the bottom of the screen and asking if this was the "era". Unfortunately joined the discussion late and it ended on the normal economist chat about more investment etc etc. Unfortunately they didn't carry it over to the article after 07.30 when the CEO's of Virgin and British Airways were interviewed regarding the desperate need for a third Runway at Heathrow. They will be lucky if they need one in a decades time.
Extending the TGV du Grande Bretagne to Birmingham might be a better use on Public Works investment. Or maybe some wind turbines.
Best Hopes for Rational Investments,
Alan
Although if it's going to be perpetually on strike like the TGV de France, it's going to be of only limited use...
Hi Alan,,
Not much hope of that over here. From the country that built some of the most magnificent railway locomotives hardly anything is left. Our railways now run locomotives built in Canada and Spain, units built in Belgium, Italy, Japan and even China due soon. All our heavy industry was decimated during the Thatcher years. Makes me wonder where we would even get the track from these days.
The tradgedy of England is that we had the most wonderful railway system until the 1960's. Branch lines connecting multitudes of many small towns. Work intensive the railways were forced to give way to road haulage and ultimately cars.
New Orleans did get British switches for the Canal Streetcar Line. They were considered the best available.
So not *ALL* is lost and gone.
Alan
Trump also went bankrupt on another project sometime within the past 2 or 3 years, but I can't remember where.
He makes his living through real estate and wants people to buy. If they buy, he can dump.
I seem to recall a comment he made about Puna being the most undervalued land in the USA.
One of those little things that people don't know about which comes up to bite people. Oddly it was 'dirty jobs' that pointed out. Apparently there are several places around the country that keep and breed non-native species of insects to the united states. Mainly for zoos and such but thats not the point. If the first part of the collapse is similar to the one that the ussr faced then no one is going to have the money to pay people to properly keep up the safeguards that keep these non-native species from escaping. It will be real hard post peak for farmers to farm if they can't afford pesticide and they are having to deal with hordes of escaped forgin insects.
Hello TODers,
Headless Turkey Day to all--Truly appropriate, as the MSM stuffing is deeply packed in from all the wrong directions, so that the denial & delusion can continue to roast to perfection!
The uncounted millions of spraying sprinklerheads across the vast acreages of exceedingly manicured winter lawns heralds a future of dehydrated turkeys so bad that even with a massive injection of monetary gravy, it will prove to be of no avail. Alas, Tom Turkey, Jill Turkey, and the Giblets-- can't you read your own entrails?
My Asphalt Wonderland's golf courses were packed this morning with Butterballs playing putter-ball, and virtually every vehicle on our mega-grid of macadam had been carefully washed & polished to reflect maximum plumage for the trips across our vast heat island. Do the pea-cocks see the plucked & f***ked connection to the obese bird as they tear it to shreds?
Imagine the gigantic energy-slave tugs of war occurring as the roasting ovens, food-heating trays, long, hot, and steamy showers, and high-power, blowing hairdryers compete in battle trying to overpower the High Voltage A/C units.
Holiday fashions, flown in from every corner of the globe, are on proud parade-- while countless millions would humbly wish they could enjoy the feast of our electrified garbage disposers. Can you hear the grinding pain of starvation, or is the Reaper's Wicked Blade much quieter than the electric carving knife?
The mothers cry as their babies die....but nothing to see here, please move along to the shopping extravanganza.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hi Bob, The way our craft your phrases often reminds me of Door's lyrics. Dark poetry indeed - but it does grab one's attention :o)
You have mentioned many ideas in your past posts, like the Spider Web Riding bikes. A Google search such bikes only turns up old TOD posts. "Rail bikes" turns up lots of pedal vehicles for existing train tracks, but that does not seem to be what you are hinting at. Any links to what a Spider Web Riding bike or system would look like?
Greg in MO
AIRBUS - dollars vs euros ... jiikes
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20071122/tbs-forex-germany-aerospace-struct...
Yes I saw that Airbus story and I was wondering how that works. Do they price their aircraft in dollars? Did they invest in dollar based assets? I would have considered the financial benefits of the increased value of any euro-based assets they may have and their increased buying power.
Their expenses are in Euros and their revenues are in dollars, which is most more basic way in which a company gets currency exposure.
Actually, on a deeper level, their revenues are, like oil, only priced in dollars. If the dollar falls 1%, Airbus can increase their prices to match. But in any case, their ability to increase prices would not appear to offset the impact of of the strong Euro on expenses.
This should be the case with many European exports and the opposite for US exporters.
This resonates with me for sure. I commissioned a guy who lives in Canada (I live in the USA) to build a set of bagpipes (svenska säckpipan) for me many many moons ago. Well, they're about finished now...during which time the Loonie was going for about 90 cents to the US dollar, now completely flip-flopped to currently CAD$ 1.02 to the USD (was as high as $1.10). Well, he hasn't been in the biz for long so he didn't think about monetary fluctuations like that and I didn't think there'd be any shift that big in the time it would take him to build the set...so we both thought about the money in terms of our own currency. Well, he's a great guy so he at first compromised and split the difference, and then went on to just go by the original USD figure I'd originally told him (I'd origianally quoted the CAD$ amount alongside too) and he said he'd write it off as a learning experience and to make sure all quotes he made after that were clearly in his own currency. Because he's such a great guy I don't want to screw him over, so I've since sent him money for the full Canadian denominated amount and thus through phantom fluctuations in currency exchange paid US$100 more than originally expected.
Eurozone split as bond spreads hit 6-year high
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;?xml=/money/2007/11/22/bcnit...
I also noticed while watching the BBC that the World has lost another million acres of arable land in Bangladesh due to the cyclone. I remember reading somewhere on TOD that at current rates of loss, there would be no arable land left on the planet in 200 years. I dare say that with the acceleration in Climate Change that figure is probably conservative.
Like the story about jellyfish destroying all the farmed salmon in Northern Ireland, surprises just keeping coming. I think that even here on TOD we might be missing or at least underestimating the true scale of the threat facing us.
If I understand it correctly, the potential of a warming Arctic to affect Europe's climate, is also a serious threat that seems to have been overlooked. As the sea ice melts and the sea absorbs more heat, the air temperature above increases, causing the entire air column to expand. Essentially increasing the influence and area subject to polar weather and forcing the Jetstream south.
If this is correct, the effect on agriculture and energy usage will be huge, not to mention the effect on 300 million or so people living there (including me). Also, the time scale for this happening would be rapid, abrupt even, and would probably only take a few years.
Morningstar has raised their estimate of oil prices to 60 or 65 dollars! What planet are they on?
However they are starting to realize capital costs are getting higher as time goes on.
In their favor they are admitting they have been wrong on their past forecast.
BUT!! They are starting to consider the effect of export land!!!
Here is a video where they explain this (you will have to watch a commercial first, it lasts a couple of seconds, just turn the sound off):
http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&vid=3d1bf1a9-3ce1-4e42-98ac-...
,
Hello TODers,
Referring to Leanan's toplink on the Mexican oilfield fire in Campeche Bay: is this platform part of the Cantarell field? and if it is: is this uncontrolled oil and gas leakage significant enough to further damage the reservoir to make this oilfield's output plummet even faster?
Any experts out there that wish to comment?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This might well be a environmental disaster that is being covered up.
When the ship first collided with the platform there was a report of aprox 420 bbl per day leaking. It was a big media outlet like Reuters or?
Now we just hear about 420 bbl, but originally I clearly remember them saying per day, because I remember thinking "good luck with Pemex cleaning this up any time soon"
I'm just too lazy to Google the original article.
Norway investment in oil and gas projects to peak in 2009
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article144642.ece
As there are fewer projects to develop in the North Sea and oil production is in decline, it makes sense that project costs fall.
UAE slashes rates
From the Telegraph article linked a the top of Drum(stick)beat (cute...)
"Richard Heinberg, one of the world's leading experts on oil reserves..."
(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
sigh :-(
From the STPN article linked...
http://www.stpns.net/view_article.html?articleId=64747576476486766
"Conclusion 1: The American experience of peak oil seems to generalize quite nicely to prediction of global peak oil."
(!!!!!!)
double sigh :-( :-(
RC
Yen - 107.58 (11:18EST)
EUR - 1.4944 (11:18EST)
USD - 22nd close - 75.027
Not pretty.
Yen up better than a point(and still going). Friday's half day could be ugly.
"Friday's half day could be ugly."
I hate to have to say this, but it needs to be....
The market is overvalued for the conditions and needs a tidy set back. Better to "take our whuppin now and get it over with" as we say in the South....
RC
As I mentioned in a previous Drumbeat, the market has given a Dow Theory sell signal and is technically now in a bear market (even if it now goes up). So, with this respected technical signal, finally everything is in place for the economy to slide into recession (and eventually into depression).
Time for mitigation (of economic, climate and energy problems) is over and collapse is now the most likely way in which the various overshoot imbalances will be dealt with IMO. Economics is our fundamental method of organisation and as it becomes increasingly dysfunctional our overall ability to mitigate or offset collapse will diminish.
I would suggest that for those who've not altered every aspect of their lives to correspond with ELP principles, the best thing to do is PANIC!
Well; it's 2:25 am in the Mountain Time Zone and I'm still here
it was quite a day yesterday, that being Thanksgiving day, I enjoyed a supreme dinner with friends and more food than 20 people could eat and a week. I did meet a couple of people that were aware of what is going on in the world and that was a surprise. Out here where I live most everyone is BAU type and drive big Dodge Trucks.
I would like to thank Leanan for the superb work she does in putting together the Drum every day, along with the rest of the crew at TOD.
Hope everyone had as much to eat as I did and enjoyed it, it just might not be this good next November.
"You can cure ignorance but you can't cure stupitidy"
the old hermit
Australia must learn how to feed itself
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803745-5001031,00....
I have just heard from his brother the sad news that
Samsam Bakhtiari has died.
A great man and a great loss.
Thanks for telling us. Very sad news.
Czechoslovakia: Diesel prices hit a record high
Please, it's "Czech Republic"! Czechoslovakia ceased to exist in 1992.
-Th
I was thinking of problem solving strategies recently for myself and the group, as it were and remembered my readings about Mindmapping several years ago, before I became PO aware and was just interested in my child's development and fascinated with my own emotional and educational / intellectual development. So I went around to the stores and found and bought the book by Tony Buzan "Embracing change" http://www.amazon.com/Embracing-Change-Personal-Development-Buzan/dp/056...
I was getting interested in this because of all the +/- doomer(pessimist)/cornucopian(optimist)talk in the various PO forums and Buzan is an obvious leader in the area of using practical mental techniques to deal with information to attack problems in business and personal life. Software is available on the web and in stores for schools and businesses and it is very popular technique and good for brainstorming in groups to solve problems(which we are really in need of here at TOD as that is about all we do anyway)and you can even just use a piece of paper to make a mind map of a problem- say "Energy Crisis" with various solutions and problems branching off in a huge web with coloured branches and pictures showing all solutions,etc. and hang it on your fridge and look at it everyday to keep it in your mind where you are going so you don't get discouraged.
I googled Maindmapping online and got among other things the free online version called mindmeister(This is a big mindmap I made over the last week):
http://www.mindmeister.com/maps/show/3220876
You sign in and can make 5 maps for free(otherwise $50/year). You can allow others to work on it and even do it live and talk about it by skype phone. The above is a mind map I made where all the different parts have net link (cick on arrows) I found by googling in TOD. So for example you click on financial and find what we all said about finances here on TOD.
I think that such an approach to information colleciton and distribution is very visual and intuitive. The techie/ arts divide is quite strong on TOD so I think that such an approach could be critical to bridging that divide. For example as I was making this map over the last weekend I read through the wonderful thread at TOD local about living off the grid. I thought "well, so many ideas which sort of get lost in the discussion and forgotten, what if somebody, say the thread originator, sort of made notes afterwards of what all was said in the form of a Mindmap on the Mindmeister site and published it at the end of the thread for a one shot visual reference of the whole thread as otherwise it takes a half a day for someone new to digest it and perhaps we could catalogue all such important threads in this way so that we have a file of mind maps for important threads".
Anyway lots of work but a beautiful intuitive idea which can only help our brain cells and community work better and our individual brains as well.
“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24
Having not used mindmapping for a few years, I started a map just recently to prep for the property I want to buy and build on back home in New Zealand. For example, whenever something pops up on TOD that I think might be useful I drop in onto my map.
Below is a link to completely free open-source multi-OS mindmapping software. Not for online multi-author collaboration, but for anyone who wants to play with mindmapping or use it at home it's pretty good. Havn't looked at what web-publishing capabilities it might or might not have, but someone has written:
"I tried out mindmeister and imported a .mm file no problem. The collaboration works pretty dang well. You can also import/export as other formats." in the WIKI.
http://freemind.sourceforge.net/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
I downloaded the opensource program and will try it out. I have aprogram called Axon which is also freeware at home. It all depends on what is more intuitive and quick to learn programme really as to what I end up really using.
“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24
Where in NZ are you looking?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Up near Kawakawa maybe, def Northland somewhere.
Going to come back in a few months and do some exploring of what's available.
Would like to be right on the Bay of Islands, but for the purpose, land volume outweighs sailing opportunities. :-)
I'm aware I could get maybe 4 times as much land for the same $$$ well inland and isolated - have to have a look and get a feel for it.
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
Samsam Bakhtiari has died.
Who was he?
Google is your friend:
Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari
There's some discussion of him in today's DrumBeat.