Australia has brilliant renewable energy resources. A long wind-blown coastline, geothermal hot rocks and phenomenal solar capacity so there is definite possibility to produce all our power from these.

The problem is that Oz is such a highly urbanised society that most of these widely distributed power sources would face significant transmission losses to get to the urban centers through the current network. Wind is probably the nearest to where we live. The best geothermal and solar resources are deep in the outback. Ender had an interesting post about laying in a HVDC line across the outback to reach it.

http://stevegloor.typepad.com/sgloor/2007/06/superconductor_.html

For the time being we need to decommission our coal plants and start replacing them with gas, Can coal co-gen be retrofitted? If not I would suggest a better investment would be replacing them with gas and expanding windpower. Solar hot water should be a no-brainer and more money needs to be invesetd in solar thermal development and geothermal exploration.

Solar thermal has a lot of potential IMHO and I will be keeping a close eye on Cloncurry to see how their system performs.

Hi Gail,
There is a site that has been mooted for a trial hot rock pilot plant, and it near Muswellbrook, which is relatively close to coal power plants, their supporting lakes and of course the distribution system.
Politically, methinks the pilot plant would be a geothermal fox among the coal-fired chickens - hence no real progress yet, bar some preliminary bores.
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/renewable/recp/hotdryrock/one.html

The first example and ready to go is a big wind farm near Broken Hill, proposed by a German company.

ANDREW DURRAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, EPURON: Silverton wind farm will be one of the largest in the world once it's operating, with potential for almost 1,000 megawatts of renewable energy capacity. That's enough power for about 400,000 homes in New South Wales, or about 4.5 per cent of the State's electricity needs.

But read here that the NSW Government isn't interested:

IAN MACDONALD, NSW MINISTER FOR PRIMARY INDUSTRIES: New South Wales isn't a high wind State where you could reliably guarantee, efficiently, wind power into the grid to meet both economic and target needs.

Red tape threatens proposed Broken Hill wind farm
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2054169.htm

The private energy company has certainly done its homework. So that sort of Government response really demonstrates what kind of drama is now unfolding. Peak oil knocking at the door, triggering - together with global warming - an unprecedented clean energy crisis and the Government isn't picking up on this proposal.

That's why I am saying Ministers need to first attend a training course on peak oil and global warming

I had mentioned the Transperth solution in my post:
"Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? And Other Oil Supply Insights"
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3052

HB

Matt's point about the Strategic Petroleum reserv is apt as Australian oil is light and should have supply disruptions its the heavier crudes we need to make diesel.

Gippsland Crude is 42 too light for making diesel.

I would read Michael Richardson's article

http://www.opinionasia.org/Dryingupdownunder

Even shipping by rail requires disesl.

Its not as easy as not pumping it out of the ground.

The strategic reserve would be needed to provide a buffer for the 1st phase of supply disruptions.

Read here about some ideas brought forward by the AIP:

Crude Oil Supply disruptions outside of Australia are likely to be of the following
types:
1. A relatively small supply shortfall driven perhaps by Iraqi production ceasing ie 2.5mbd or 3% of world output.
2. A bigger shortfall driven perhaps by Saudi production ceasing ie 9mbd or 12% of world output.
3. Supply suddenly ceasing from an Asian country with replacement crudes being further away and therefore leading to a supply shortfall until replacement crudes
arrive.

And:

Government Intervention
In circumstances where crude oil availability world wide is constrained then the refining industry is best placed to search and procure alternative supplies at the best available price. If crude oil availability was constrained to the extent that the refining industry was not able to produce enough product for the Australian market and there were no alternative supplies of product available from outside of Australia, there would be a need for Government intervention to introduce demand constraint measures.

If crude availability in Asia were suddenly constrained then Australia could possibly be exposed to a shortage because alternative supplies were further away, possibly necessitating Government intervention to constrain demand.

However, if such a circumstance arose, it is possible for Australian refineries to process indigenous crude oil and condensate. The impacts would include:
• total petroleum product production would decrease by 30% ie to just over 600,000 bpd or 170,000 bpd less than demand;
• petrol production would probably be equal to local demand;
• middle distillate (diesel and jet fuel) production may be less than demand;
• there would be virtually no production of bitumen, lubricating oils and greases;
• there would probably need to be a relaxation of certain fuel standards such as sulphur in diesel (a portion of the Australian refining industry has already moved away from using certain Australian crudes in order to meet the 500 ppm sulphur diesel specification).
• There would be contractual issues associated with taking supply away from the normal customers for Australian exports.

http://www.aip.com.au/pdf/supply.pdf

This report is in urgent need for updating

Are you expecting the oil and subsequent fuel supply to remain steady or grow? Will China be able to secure an exponential supply of oil to continue their growth and exports?
Will Australia be able to secure enough fuel to continue strip mining of iron ore for the Chinese market?

It is best to dig the well before you are thirsty.

This means the Aussie motorist will be largely protected from future rises in oil prices. The price of oil will have to rise substantially faster than the price of commodities we sell (coal, iron ore etc) for the Aussie motorist to suffer.

But he is not protected from physical oil shortages. In the case of oil, it is an untested assumption that market forces (prices) will always bring demand down to supply levels. Once demand destruction has worked its way through the discretionary down to the essentials we can expect massive government interventions all around the world - including quotas.

You also assume that profits from coal and other exports will trickle down to motorist's incomes as fast as oil prices rise.

A continuous growth in China of 8% pa will create social tensions and we have no idea how that will evolve and how the Chinese government will manage these problems. ASPO China has also calculated that Chinese oil production will peak in the next years. Spot diesel shortages have already impacted on truck movements.

Peak oil is likely to weaken commodity prices as oil, coal, iron ore and other minerals are in demand at certain physical ratios depending on technology which cannot be changed over night. One would have to do economic modeling to find out whether the Chinese boom can offset weakening demand elsewhere.

The coal business also cannot go on forever.

KERRY O'BRIEN: You said just a couple of weeks ago that there should be a moratorium on building coal fired power plants until the technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide emissions is available. But you must know that that's politically unacceptable in many countries China, America, Australia for that matter, because of coal industry jobs and impact on the economy.

[NASA climatologist] JAMES HANSEN: Well, it's going to be realised within the next 10 years or so that we have no choice. We're going to have to bulldoze the old style coal fired power plants....

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1870955.htm

What Hansen meant might be the disappearance of the Arctic summer sea ice by 2013:

Causes of Changes in Arctic Sea Ice; by Wieslaw Maslowski (Naval Postgraduate School)
http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/May032006_Dr.WieslawMaslows...

So it is both optimistic and premature to see the Australian motorist in a cocoon created by high commodity prices.

Hi Xisithrus,
I think you may be confusing hot dry rock with some other kind of geothermal energy collection. Hot dry rock is simply an upper part of the crust that still has latent heat in it from when it first cooled (several hundred degrees celsius, since it is insulated by hundreds of metres of earth). It is nowhere near the kind of energy tapping that actually drilling into the magma would entail.

Ian,
"These questions need to be convincingly addressed before any political party is likely to adopt your suggestions."
Political parties have screwed various parts of the electorate with unemployment and taxes many times before, so I don't see why it can't be done this time. The only difference is that there would have to be a whole lot of truth dealt up in the discussion - something politicians are not famous for.
The bottom line is that these changes are going to entail some pain and considerable change. The later those changes come, the greater the pain.

Ian,
"These questions need to be convincingly addressed before any political party is likely to adopt your suggestions."
Political parties have screwed various parts of the electorate with unemployment and taxes many times before, so I don't see why it can't be done this time. The only difference is that there would have to be a whole lot of truth dealt up in the discussion - something politicians are not famous for.
The bottom line is that these changes are going to entail some pain and considerable change. The later those changes come, the greater the pain.

What unemployment will result if these activities were reduced or stopped?

None, instead of new freeways, construction companies will be busy with rail projects. The limiting factor will be man power skilled in rail jobs and diesel supplies. It is essential that CNG (compressed natural gas) be used in the construction sector.

How do we overcome the loss of export $s and resultant impact on economy?

Instead of exporting LNG, we should be using our natural gas to manufacture e.g. solar panels or mirrors and export these. More value added, permanent jobs secured and CO2 emmissions reduced if those solar power plants replace coal fired plants.

Check on Dr. Karl's Climate Change Coalition
http://www.climatechangecoalition.com.au/

Clean coal a furphy: Dr Karl

Dr Kruszelnicki used a scale model of Sydney and a $10 tent to demonstrate what he said was the "myth of carbon capture".

Sydney alone would produce a cubic kilometre of compressed carbon dioxide every day as a result of the process, far more than could possibly be stored under ground, he said.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007environment/clean-coal-a-f...

Thanks for the update.

We really should have included a look at the Democrats in the main post - its a shame they are struggling to survive at the next election.

As a sub-note, the independence of individual States on planning is a problem. You need a Federal direction on environmental issues, as is the case with Planning Policy Guidance and Statements in the UK, or in the case of Environmental Impact Statements and Strategic Environmental Impact Statements from European law. That is how national elections could be relevant. If the Federal Government took the issue to task and put a legal obligation on states to ensure that their planning systems and policies cover these issues within a defined deadline, with Federal planning inspectors having the final say on development plans. It would probably be unconstitutional and cause outrage, but nothing will happen otherwise, IMHO.

This weakness of the federal system is also a reason why American planning is so distorted towards vested interests, why Los Angeles was allowed to dismantle its public transport, why suburbs can be built without pedestrian connections to the city or even sidewalks. Going a step further, solving the Australian planning system would be a model for solving the American planning system.

You have heaps of planners with European experience now, particularly in the UK, use it!!

Thanks for pointing this out Mr Vintermann.

I agree - there weren't be any sudden oil shock as a result of oil depletion - the effects will be gradual, punishing the poor (countries and individuals) first.

This may lead to instability and some of the issues the doomers (Cassandra was correct by the way, so I don't use that metaphor) foresee - if handled incorrectly. But this certainly isn't guaranteed.

And there is a danger of self fulfilling prophecy occurring if everyone buys into the most pessimistic forecasts - which is why its best to aim for postive outcomes instead of focusing on the negative possibilities.

I remind TOD readers once again that in a functioning free market economy, the problem will not be that there is no meat in the stores. The problem will be that you can't afford it.

Yes, functioning and free market economy. One could argue we don't have a free oil market anymore as a massive military presence is needed to maintain oil flows. Its cost per barrel could easily be in the order of $30.

Apparently you did not experience the 1st oil crisis in 1973/74. As a result of the OPEC embargo oil tankers did not arrive in the required numbers in Rotterdam and Sunday driving bans were introduced with the objective that commercial transports during the week could use the fuel saved over the weekend. The laws of the market economy will work only in a very narrow band plus/minus the equilibrium, especially if there is no alternative fuel in sight.

There will be no way around a combination of fuel price controls (to stop inflation damaging the economy) and quotas according to need (to provide the functional minimum for the economy).

Now we do not expect another OPEC embargo, but the Middle East is a tinder box, we all know it. Read this from an interview Tony Jones had with Abdul Bari Atwan, editor of a London based Arabic newspaper:

TONY JONES: I'm sorry to interrupt. I want to move you on, because you write about a strategy designed, in fact, by Al Qaeda's military strategist, the same man who helped design what was going on in Iraq with the insurgency there and the infiltration of Al Qaeda people into Iraq, has set out a plan which you've published right up to 2020. Where are we now in that plan? Where does that plan propose to end up?

ABDUL BARI ATWAN: Well, actually we don't know what will happen. I believe now the American administration is facing a huge crisis in Iraq, and also another crisis in Iran.

What will happen to the Iranian nuclear program? What will happen to the situation in Lebanon which is turning to be a failed state, whether Al Qaeda will manage to set up bases there? What will happen to the oil industry, if there's a far flare-up between the United States and Iran and the Iranians use their missiles to hit the oil fields and burn it again like Saddam Hussein did in Kuwait. What will happen? Is it going to be blocked? What will happen to Israel, for example, whether the Iranian, the Hezbollah missiles will hit Israel?

We are facing a huge problem in the Middle East. I believe that the coming 12 months is the most important period of this part of the world's history. I think in 2020 we will see a completely different Middle East, because most of oil resources outside the Gulf, in particular, will be dried up simply because it's very short-term production oil reserves. Even in Iran in 2020, 2025, the oil will run out completely.

China's consumption of oil increases 7 per cent, 7.5 per cent, every year. India, which is another superpower, emerging its consumption of oil increasing by 5.5 per cent every year. United States' consumption is increasing.

Where are we going to have this oil from? Who will control the oil in the Middle East? Who will put his hand on the tab there? Anybody who will control that part of the world will control the whole world, the whole economy. To be honest, it is very bleak picture.

So Middle East will be there in the news and there will be many wars to come, many, many conflicts. Many competitions between the emerging superpower, India, China and Europe with Soviet Union or Russia in particular. So, it is very interesting to see what will happen there.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2013661.htm

The most serious of them, panic, is what many of you are irrationally promoting in a self-fulfilling Cassandra party. Stop it, please.

The panic may come not because of self fulfilling prophecies (the average Australian doesn't know about them anyway) but because the public is not properly informed of and prepared for, peak oil. For example, when the crunch time comes, many motorists may confuse "running out of oil" with "peak oil" and declining oil production. No one is telling them the difference. Or inelastic behaviour may sharpen the crisis unnecessarily.