DrumBeat: October 28, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 28, 2007 - 8:59am
Crude Oil Rises to Record on Turkey-Iraq Tensions, Nigeria
Crude oil rose to a record $92.40 a barrel in New York after Turkey's Foreign Minister said his government is considering "all options" including military action to deal with Kurdish rebels operating from Iraq."Our patience has come to an end," Ali Babacan said yesterday in Tehran following talks with his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki. In Nigeria, Italy's Eni SpA said armed men seized six of its workers in an attack on a supply ship, heightening concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Qatari Oil Minister Says OPEC Can't Curb Price of Crude Oil
Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "can't do anything" to quell rising oil prices, which breached $92 for the first time in New York last week."The market is under psychological pressure, not demand pressure," al-Attiyah said in an interview today in Doha.
Kollek Says Taxes, Costs Holding Back Projects
Russian oil firms should focus more on maintaining output from mature fields to prevent production from stagnating because tax rules and rising costs make it difficult to launch new projects, a senior executive said.
Russia: Competition Body Urges More Coordination Among Refiners
The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service wants oil firms to disclose and coordinate maintenance work at refineries to avoid a repetition of sharp gasoline and diesel price spikes, an agency official said.
Designer pays for land rights on own ranch to stop drilling for oil
Environmentalists in the US have a habit of mounting loud, vigorous but ultimately futile campaigns against thirsty oil companies looking for land to exploit. So the US fashion designer Tom Ford is taking no chances.Ford, who established his reputation with Gucci and Yves Saint-Laurent before setting up his own label, has bought the mineral rights beneath his ranch in New Mexico, scene of a growing battle between the oil industry and environmentalists. Land records show he paid the state $84,000 for the rights on more than 1,400 acres of his own land, effectively meaning that he has now bought the land twice.
Shell Shuts Hydrotreater Unit at Deer Park, Texas, Refinery
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company, shut a catalytic cracker feed hydrotreater unit at its refining complex in Deer Park, Texas.
Putin Snipes at EU on Access to Assets
President Vladimir Putin scrapped with European Union leaders Friday over Brussels' plans to limit foreign investment in energy markets at a summit that achieved little on key sticking points.Putin, in his final EU-Russia summit as president, took a swipe at proposals from Brussels that could prevent gas monopoly Gazprom from buying up power grids and pipelines while the 27-nation bloc revamps its gas and electricity markets.
Responding to rockets, Israel slashes Gaza fuel supply
Israel restricted the flow of fuel to Hamas-controlled Gaza on Sunday, a move it vowed to take in response to "the incessant firing of rockets into Israel," an adviser to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said.
China and its Role in the Oil Price Rise
There are a number of reasons behind the rapid increase in oil prices. Some people say that the reason is OPEC members' failure to take the initiative to raise production to achieve the required balance between supply and demand in international markets. In fact, there is no actual shortfall in markets; the current anxiety is due to the fear of a surprise interruption in future supplies, for political, climatic or industrial reasons. The commercial oil reserve, especially in western industrial industries, stands at the average levels it has reached over the last five years. The criticisms of OPEC by the International Energy Agency can be summarized as follows: OPEC states don't want to increase production enough to enable western industrial states to compensate for what has been drawn down from the commercial reserve in past months.
New Kuwait oil minister appointed in widely expected Cabinet reshuffle
Bader Mishari al-Humaidhi was appointed as Kuwait's oil minister on Sunday in a widely expected Cabinet reshuffle.Al-Humaidhi, 59, who previously served as finance minister, was given the key oil portfolio, the state-owned Kuwait Television reported.
Kuwait must maintain oil quota in int'l markets - Al-Humaidhi
Oil minister Bader Al-Humaidhi stressed Sunday that Kuwait must maintain its quota in international petroleum markets to guarantee steady income and utilize revenues in development.
Syria, Iran and Venezuela will sign on Tuesday a partnership agreement for constructing a crude oil refinery with a capacity of 140 thousand barrels per day east of Homs. The signing of the agreement will be followed by founding a joint company for carrying out studies and implementing the project.
High oil prices hit Chinese petrol stations
Fuel shortages were reported at petrol stations throughout China Sunday as the cost of oil on the domestic market lagged behind record global prices, prompting refiners to slow deliveries....With government subsidies keeping fuel prices artificially low, petrol stations are either running out of supplies or are shutting operations hoping for a state-approved rise.
Oil price 'grounds' N Korea fleet
North Korea has been forced to ground a fleet of Soviet-era military planes because of the high oil price, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.Fuel is being diverted for other training flights, Yonhap quoted a military source as saying.
...North Korea's impoverished economy has suffered from energy shortages for years, and rising oil prices have made the situation worse.
Why predicting oil prices is a mug's game
At the end of the day, predicting oil prices is a mug's game.Yet no economist would ever admit this. For a start, they would be out of a job. Because their real purpose is not to spin accurate forecasts, it is to conjure an atmosphere of confidence and calm.
Russia Pushes Oil Companies to Find More Oil in Eastern Siberia
In order to fill the ESPO, Eastern Siberia must produce 56 million tons of crude annually by 2020 and sustain production at this level, said Arkady Yefimov, head of the Siberian Institute of Geology, Geophysics, and Mineral Resources. To achieve this goal, the region needs 1.5 billion tons of reserves, but only 520 million tons of reserves have been discovered in Eastern Siberia so far, he said.
The petro-state threatens to put paid to the Socialist dream
For Hugo Chávez, the U.S. "empire" and the "consumerist values" are the two greatest enemies of his attempt to guide masses to the paradise of the 21st century Socialism. But the Venezuelan petro-state, fueled by record oil prices, has become the big threat.
Reaping benefits, paying the price for higher fuel costs
A few years back, then-Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys was trying to gauge whether the public might support creation of a light rail system. He quizzed friends, wanting to know at what point they might consider abandoning their vehicles and flocking to public transportation.The crowd listening to Humphreys laughed as he quoted one friend who responded he would only consider such a switch if gasoline hit $4 a gallon.
In the pre-Sept. 11, 2001, world, such a price seemed inconceivable to Humphreys' audience.
Thailand: Producers promise to step up NGV supply
The demand for natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in Thailand is expected to rise in response to rising oil prices, and in anticipation some fuel refiners have already started to up their production output to cope with the coming demand.
"Because of electricity shortages we lose everything," said John Robertson, an independent Harare-based economist."Production time is lost as well as export revenue. We are now importing almost everything."
THE price of uranium has risen for three consecutive weeks as speculators rekindled their interest in the raw material in nuclear reactor fuel.The metallic element rose $US4, or 5 per cent, to $US84 a pound, said TradeTech LLC, a Denver-based publisher of price assessments. The equivalent of at least 350,000 pounds were sold in just two transactions, the company said on Friday in a weekly report.
Peak Moment: City Repair - Permaculture for Urban Spaces (podcast and streaming video)
What happens when citizens apply permaculture principles to a city grid? They create friendly places within the grid that invite people to come together. Mark Lakeman, co-founder of Portland, Oregon's City Repair Project describes these "creative intervention" projects as placemaking at its best. People learn to work together, build trust and have fun. The results, from painted intersections to cob benches and other organic structures, invite people "to inhabit the planet on our own terms" rather than the grid-locked culture imposed by the city.
If we all Tread lightly we can make a difference
Today, the Guardian launches its Tread lightly online project. It is an attempt to counter the defeatist attitude about tackling rising carbon emissions, by establishing an online meeting place for the community of people who are keen to be part of the solution, but who still seek motivation. By bringing readers together and encouraging them to make lifestyle changes, the hope is to show that individuals acting collectively can achieve impressive results. These changes range from the simple - washing clothes at 30C (86F), taking the bus instead of driving, - to the more imaginative, such as coordinating a "walking crocodile" for the trip to school.
Israel: Solar power unto the nations
Luz, which developed technologies to harness solar energy, went bankrupt 16 years ago. Founder Arnold Goldman is back with Luz II. "Globes" talked to the man who went into cleantech before it became a buzzword.
On an Upstate Wind Turbine Project, Opinions as Varied as the Weather
As we stumble toward what’s supposed to be a greener future, almost everyone, in the abstract, is for wind energy, surely as green, safe and abundant an energy source as there is. But, as residents of Long Island saw last summer in a proposal for wind turbines off Jones Beach that was quickly deep-sixed, it’s often not so simple at all.So on the road from Grand Gorge to Stamford you see the yard signs popping up in front of barns and houses — “Yes to Clean Energy” on some, “No Industrial Wind Turbines” or “Save Our Mountains” on others.
Brockton mayor comes out in opposition to power plant
The plant would be on a 13-acre site at the Oak Hill Way Industrial Park. The proposed 101,200-square-foot facility would be 130 feet tall, with a stack reaching 250 feet.It would generate 350 megawatts, enough to power 230,000 households, and would be fueled by natural gas. It would also use diesel fuel at times when there's a shortage of natural gas.
Boom in China's coal industry draws increasing interest from American investors and business
As China's appetite for coal is booming, American investors and businesses are cashing in.American pension and mutual fund money is being invested in the Chinese coal industry, which is lucrative but has a poor record for pollution and worker safety.
Less Arctic ice means higher risks, experts warn
The International Ice Charting Working Group predicts more marine transportation in the Arctic as sea ice continues to diminish and warns of "significant hazards to navigation," according to a statement released yesterday.
Let's set aside for a moment the implausible notion that White House political appointees are better informed about the science in reports by the IPCC — the U.N.-chartered scientific group that shares this year's Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore — than Dr. Gerberding and her staff are.The fact is that for well over a decade, the IPCC has been sounding the alarm on climate change, and the Bush administration has ignored, downplayed and denied its conclusions.
From polar bears to public health, government scientists' views keep running into political Wite-Out at the White House.The latest example in a stunning array of them came last week when the Associated Press reported that the White House made significant edits in testimony about the impact of climate change on public health. Deleted sections, which the AP said covered more than half of the original text, included a list of specifics in which "climate change is likely to have a significant impact on health."
Human-generated ozone will damage crops, according to MIT study
What is the net effect of the three environmental changes? Without emissions restrictions, yields from forests and pastures decline slightly or even increase because of the climate and carbon dioxide effects. But crop yields fall by nearly 40 percent worldwide.
Arctic oil, gas offer challenge, potential
I've been fascinated with the notion of huge undiscovered oil and gas resources in the world's Arctic regions that may become assessable as the polar ice pack shrinks. This is important for those of us who worry about "peak oil," the theory that the world will soon reach the peak of oil that can be produced.Next year we'll get the first educated guess of the potential resource of the Arctic when the U.S. Geological Survey completes its Circum-Arctic Resources Appraisal, the first comprehensive effort to predict the amount of oil and gas that might be recovered from polar regions of the globe, and which will be available to the public.
Alberta’s Oil Royalty Increase Is Protested
Both the oil industry and environmental groups were united, at least in disagreement, on Friday by the province of Alberta’s decision to raise oil and gas royalty charges.
Philippine-Chinese venture plans major ethanol plant
A Filipino oil company and its Chinese partner are planning a 30-million-dollar ethanol plant in the southern Philippines to cash in on an expected biofuel boom, a company official said Sunday.
China Vows to Clean Up Polluted Lake
China will spend more than $14 billion to clean up a famed lake inundated by so much pollution this year that it became a symbol of the country’s lax environmental regulation against polluting industries.
Climate controversy heats up Australian election
Australian Prime Minister John Howard was defiant Sunday in the face of reports his environment minister urged him to reverse government policy and sign the Kyoto Protocol ahead of upcoming polls.The prime minister is battling for his political life in the November 24 election against a Labor Party leader who has vowed to immediately sign onto the UN-backed Kyoto process if he wins.
Sustainable Living: Heat up climate-change legislation
Since this great outpouring of grass-roots support for climate change legislation, virtually nothing has happened in Congress. Meanwhile, the polar ice is thinning, greenhouse gases are getting thicker and the U.S. economy is stagnant. Rather than hope and wait for our elected officials to do the right thing, Step It Up is getting proactive. Members have called for another National Day of Climate Action to be held on Saturday.
Warming Revives Flora and Fauna in Greenland
But now that the climate is warming, it is not just old trees that are growing. A Greenlandic supermarket is stocking locally grown cauliflower, broccoli and cabbage this year for the first time. Eight sheep farmers are growing potatoes commercially. Five more are experimenting with vegetables. And Kenneth Hoeg, the region’s chief agriculture adviser, says he does not see why southern Greenland cannot eventually be full of vegetable farms and viable forests.
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I am collecting material to educate the local community and organizations about Peak Oil. I have put together a pretty good collection and am preparing a Power Point presentation.
I know that much of this has already been put together by others for their local situations.
If anyone is aware of good presentations on this topic, please post the link(s). I'm sure this would be useful to others also.
Thanks in advance.
Piccolo
Checkout this site. I have not gone through it recently to see if it has been updated.
Don
http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/initial_page_english.htm
I wish we could afford the life we are living.
Don, thanks for the link.
Here are some other good collections of ppt's or pdf's I've run across:
Powerswitch.org
Matt Simmons' presentations
Oil Depletion Analysis Center Click on Assessments.
ASPO 2006 presentations
Without broader awareness there will be no collective, informed thoughts on the matter. Without informed thoughts, any actions taken before and during a crisis will likely make problems worse. Without informed thoughts and effective actions, there will be no hope. So making presentations on the implications of the peaking of oil and climate change are an excellent idea.
And speaking of excellent ideas, multi-threading a complementary or related discussion through a presentation is yet another excellent idea.
But a truly astounding idea is if those people who were making presentations would share specific experiences about:
* the actual presentation
* what generated discussion
* what the reactions were to specific questions and answers
Reactions are a key. Because without the shared understanding of the reactions, from hostility to blank stares to laughter, the amount each of us can learn individually is so very limited.
Comedians use a multi-threading technique to great effect to generate attention, interest, and laughter, and presenters can similarly use tangents, sidebars, and seemingly-unrelated stories, which are interjected into the middle of a presentation. The changing of topics in conversation or presentation tends to grab peoples' attentions, disrupt a previous train of thought, and put them off guard.
But if you really want to get discussions moving, there's an excellent discussion "hook" technique that I learned while hiking the Inca Trail to Machu Picchu. It's virtually guaranteed to spark interest.
In this gathering and exchanging of knowledge, the goal would be to continually improve the quality and impact of presentations.
I'm working on such a presentation right now, directed at local small businesses in my county. I'm calling it the "County Small Business Economic Threat Assessment". Though the title might be polarizing and harsh, I think that's what I want to do, polarize, so that I can align with the people who will address these problems as threats, instead of wishing for or expecting that someone else will take care of it.
And that's another thing you have to expect with presentations, or the delivery of any kind of broadcast message: you will not reach everyone.
I expect there are a lot of other people working on presentations alone, without any organized way of exchanging, borrowing, and learning from the experiences of other presenters.
Maybe it will be a productive undertaking to share our presentation experiences, using and developing the technology while we have access to its supporting infrastructure, with the goal of improving the delivery and effectiveness of our efforts.
Maybe it is useful to start listing some presentation and discussion resources right here:
How to Win an Argument - refined from Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends, Etc. #12, though, is wrong. You need to be emotive, but not let your emotions run wild so that they can be used against you.
How to Win an Argument by humorist Dave Barry
Periodic Table of Visualization Methods
Or perhaps, since it's not like anything important is at stake, we shouldn't upset our own individual apple carts by changing our ways of addressing these problems, and just wish for the outcomes we hope for?
Best hopes that people understand that "hope" is only a "wish" if not accompanied by both thoughts and actions ...
Yeah, but there is so much misinformation out there. People think they are informed, but in many cases the opinions are based upon faulty assumptions that in many cases are pushed out there by people who have an agenda.
Identifying the problem of dis- and mis-information is enough to get started attacking the problem.
And you have identified the problem succinctly:
* opinions frequently based on faulty assumptions
* assumptions frequently pushed by agendas
Our problem arises when we, ourselves, look for a quick fix, an easy solution to this situation.
The solution to misinformation is found in being better informed than the other people, to be able to challenge their assumptions in a non-threatening way, to be able to identify agendas, and be able to effectively lead them out of their misinformed position.
This is no easy task.
So, no. No one person can be expected to keep on top of everything, the information infrastructure, the presentation parameters, the conversational cues. So maybe there's a place for an open-source sustainability and energy reference database, a Codex Petroleus for discussion and presentation, from which we all could borrow, to which we could all contribute.
I think using Humor throughout is a great idea. I used to do presentations in groups of 10 all the way to packed rooms with 300+. Did class room education and really understand the multi-thread approach.
Having analogies for different attendees in your presentation is key. One person is into NASCAR another is into Club Med. What things will be different for those people (and everyone in between).
I used to sell Kirby vacuums door to door for 4 years back when I was first starting out. Many many techniques learned.
For example, this technique Feel, Felt, Found , Can be used to help in the persuasion end.
It goes like this.
Having gotten an objection to something you presented, this is how you would counter and continue.
"I know how you feel Bob, You FEEL.... (hit a couple of points of his objection) and I wnat you to know that I FELT the same way,... (give examples of you had problems with that aspect when you first found out), But then I FOUND that.... (explain it in a new way includes his objection)
Feel, Felt Found.
I know how you Feel,
I felt the same way,
But I Found....
This method gets you on THEIR side (I felt the same way, I'm with you).
It would be great if there was a OPEN SOURCE area that everyone could donate Great Graphs, Facts, Figures etc so presentations could be created quickly with up to date info.
Instead of hunting the web for articles, graphs you might have seen somewhere...
How about it Prof. Goose? Can we have an area to post OPEN SOURCE Peak Oil info??
John Carr
John,
Some great suggestions here. Thanks. I'll need to practice that some.
I'd love to get a video of you doing your Peak Oil thing - does anything like that exist? (Youtube for example.)
Regarding the web site idea, I think there is definitely a place for it. I could probably set up something like that independently, but it would be better if it could be done under the umbrella of TOD.
Great suggestions with the feel, felt, found.
Open source peak oil information, brilliant. Many hands make light work. With many eyes, all bugs are shallow.
Okay, you've sparked my interest. Is the "hook" telling folks about an excellent (fill in the blank) that you learned while hiking the Inca Trail to Machu Picchu?
The "hook" is starting an interesting story, relevant to the listener, that you don't finish telling. You return to your original story in the conversation, or go off on another tangent, "forgetting" about the hook story.
Thus getting them to ask, "so what happened on the Inca Trail"?
Though using an experience from your own life is bound to be more realistic and effective.
Charlie and I are standing at the top of a hill overlooking Machu Picchu. The fourth day of the hike, and we've hiked an hour that morning to get to the top, and are awed by the view. "Breathtaking," I mutter. "Yeah," he replies, and begins to point at the ruins. "But soon there'll be ... " He trails off for a moment, and starts walking toward the site. I start after him, but he won't finish the sentence and changes the subject.
An hour later, two buses of tourists arrive and the site is swarmed. "Too many people", he says, pointing again, finally finishing his sentence.
I had to wait for it and ask for it, and when I got it, there was a much bigger impact.
::rubs eyes:: Am I still dreaming or did a couple of comments just get nuked?
mine did
I deleted one comment. The reason I deleted it was that it looked like spam to me. (New poster, and the only comment he ever posted was a plug for a specific product, complete with link to commercial web site.)
We've decided to be a little more strict about commercial posts. We're getting a lot more traffic these days, which makes us more attractive to spammers. It hasn't been too bad yet, but it's something we want to nip in the bud.
I'm sorry for the post on the product I didn't mean it as a spam.There have been several post that I've read here about old homes not having the insulation needed.I've used this product and cooling an extra 450 sq ft of our house for $100 less per month and I'm not even done coating the rest of the house.Being a painter there are only two product that I know of on the market and you can do your own digging by insulating paint search this works on the K-value.Once again I apologize I didn't mean it as spam.
I would like to see a debate (with links) on insulating paint. I have toyed with the concept several times but never used it.
Interior as well as exterior paints.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Well Alan from thermodynamics:
Paint is a 1 dimensional spplication, only having thickness. (neglect corner effects, and thermal diffusion down the body)
q/time = thermal diffusivity *applied area* driving force/thickness
As you know, when thickness gets small, (like paint) the q/time increases substantially. In class we never ever ever ever even consider surface nodes for conduction, only convection.
In summary, paint is soo thin that only an application of a miracle material with very very high k value would even have a noticeable effect compared to what the wall is constructed of.
If you want to talk about radiation reflecting paint to prevent absorption of incident solar radiation thats different and can be incorporated into the overall system solution.
I have seen coatings several mm thick, with good effects (hold coated end of metal strip, apply propane torch to other end an inch away).
My guess is that R-1 is possible with a 3.5 mm thick coating. A good way to shelter thermal mass from living space.
Alan
Is the recent Nobel Prize for "the mysteries of surface chemistry", as Jon Stewart put it, at all relevant here?
In your original post I think you mentioned that you've installed a new heat pump. The savings are probably coming from that, or have you somehow ruled that out of your number there?
We installed a new 17 seer from a 10 seer unit.Granted alot comes from that, but our house was built in 1927 still has all lath and plaster I coated the hottest room in the house upstairs bedrm 10x27 with open attic areas on side walls.We never cooled the two rooms upstairs unless company was coming.After coating and you could not tell the difference between down stair and up (extra 450sq ft)This coating uses Nanotech it not the ceramic powder.Most under side of roof decking coated got on ave 50 degree drop.I coated a 6x12 south facing porch roof since it's a clear coat still have the aesthetics but keep the heat out I just need a good hail storm to see how it holds up.
I would like the link since Google for Nanotech lead to confusion (I did find that Mercedes Benz started using clear ceramic paint as an overcoat on their higher end models in 2004).
Thanks,
Alan
I think this was it.
You think correctly.
"new 17 seer from a 10 seer unit"
From what I understand, that's a pretty big jump and it should be 1.7 times as efficient as efficient, more if your old unit had lost efficiency by age. What was the percentage drop in your bill after installation? It's really a shame you did so many things at once and weren't able to measure the effects individually.
"I coated a 6x12 south facing porch roof since it's a clear coat still have the aesthetics but keep the heat out I just need a good hail storm to see how it holds up."
You painted the outside? Would that not let the light in to heat the surface below and then trap the heat beneath?
I'm not trying to hound you or anything, just rather curious. I can think of a good way of testing this stuff though, and that would be to get Kill-a-Watt meter and your fridge, get a good baseline of energy usage (and track room temp), paint your fridge with the stuff and then get an average of after-painted energy usage and see if its statistically significant.
Doing so many things at once was also a consideration but it just happened that way.Our summer bills had ave. between 180 to 240 it dropped to 95-123 the highest.But that is with an added 450 sq ft at 74 degrees.On the 6x12 roof during high sunlight there is a higher sheen which I'm guessing is reflecting sunlight at dusk it reduces to almost nothing.I'm looking for extended roof life it made the shingle almost like a plastic bucket.The company is testing has made app for patent on sheetrock mud and sheetrock plus other building materials.It has a class A fire rating.Around the end of the yr they have said an epoxy will be on the market there is your frig test.Or better yet in the plastc liner of the frig.
I reviewed the performance of a "nanotech" thermal coating used for an industrial application. While it worked well at reducing radiant heat losses (and would also probably work well at reducing radiant heat gains), it's actual conductive R-value was vastly worse than advertised. Had to resort back to good-old foam. Buyers beware.
I would intuitively infer that there is a fairly low limit as to how insulative (in conductive heat loss) a thin film could be. All the insulative materials I'm aware of achieve their insulative value usually with a combination of dead air (or inert gas or vacuum) space and volume. A thin film simply does not have the volume to be able to do this. If I'm wrong, I'd like to see experimental or real world data to this effect.
refer to my upward post. The thermal flux is a function of temperature gradient, thickness, and area. An infinitely thin coating would have an infinitely high thermal flux (basically it would be ignored in the final solution).
You are correct that dead space is important, but prevention of the 3 methods of heat transfer at an economical rate is more so. Conductive, convective, and radiative. Fractal gels are wonderful at this.
At the site listed by vaporlock below
http://www.industrial-nanotech.com/howitworks.htm
they list 'Nansulate' at R-10-13 per inch. Allowing for even the high side of R-13, this would give but a small fraction of an R for a layer of paint. I would bet that a 1" thick coating of the stuff would be way prohibitively expensive. I remain vastly unimpressed.
Here is the specs on the paint and how it works.http://www.industrial-nanotech.com/howitworks.htm
Sorry if I misread your post. I wouldn't have deleted it if you had more of a posting history here. If you're really interested in peak oil, stick around. :)
No problem I understand your consern I'm really interested and you'd probably have to chase me off with a big stick.Knowledge is power and we're going to need all the power we can get.
I thought it may have been spam too when I first saw it, but I decided to follow the link anyway.
Here's a forum, they talk about R-value at the bottom: http://www.nanalyze.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1249&whichpage=2
Something called the "Knudsen effect" gets mentioned, which is interesting. There's certainly not a lot of information on it, and what there is seems to be a bit of black magic. I'm highly skeptical, though intrigued.
Edit:
On that forum I have a link to there, someone's posted what looks like a press release:
There's more but you can go to the link.
I am also very interested in the insulating or reflective paints that are on the market. I understand they were developed by NASA and would have a major impact on household energy use, especially AC. Vacuum ceramic additives are the key.
Any experiences out there?
I tried a product marketed as a Radiant Barrier spray. You apply directly to the underside of the roof decking in the attic. Application is pretty simple with an airless paint sprayer. My results were dissapointing. I was testing to see if this might be a good business to get into. I tracked the temperature in my attic for a week prior to applying and then after. The delta between outside temp. and attic temp. decreased around ten degrees, from 35 F to 25 F, or so. The product was fairly expensive ($250 for a 5-gallon container that covered 1,600 sq. ft. of decking) I wanted to isolate the affects of the spray and made no other changes to insulation levels, etc. I think I would have been far ahead if I would have spent the money blowing an additional 8 inches of insulation. I'm guessing that the majority of customers are going to try the spray and add insulation as well. this would muddle the ineffectiveness of the spray. in my opinion, add insulation, add ventilation, and for god's sake adjust the thermostat, buy a fan for the summer and a sweater for the winter.
Thanks for the information. The one I was looking at was Hy-Tech in Florida. They have lots of claims and say they developed the product together with NASA for use on spacecraft. It seems the roof coatings would be the best way to go, to reflect the radiant energy from the sun. I know out attic gets blazing hot in the summer due to the radiant energy absorbed. Trying to find out more, however.
I have stapled aluminum coated kraft paper (I used paper coated on both sides) to rafters with good, and economic, effects (assuming labor is free or cheap).
Alan
Since a thin film like paint can't stop thermal conduction the only real effect it can have is on radiation. It is convenient to divide that into two wavelength bands, shortwave (visable, and near infrared), which for our application would be sunlight, and longwave, infrared at say 5-25 microns. This later can be considered as radiant heat.
The simplest low tech thing to do would be to use light colored paint (note about half of incoming solar is near infrared, so your eye may not be the best judge). This would reduce the direct heating from the sun. The effect could be significant, as we seem to have a foolish preference for dark colored roofs.
The infrared area is trickier. A non-reflective (in the IR) surface will cool quicker, essentially at a given wavelength reflectivity, and emissivity are inversely related (E=1-A). If some of the infrared wavelengths have a nontrivial mean-free path (how far on average a photon travels before being absorbed). Since radiative barriers, such as aluminum foil have been recommended for years, there must be at least some wavelengths with significant mean-free path in common insultaing materials. In this case I suspect that a layer of foil would do at least as much good, as that paint coating. Depending upon cost that might be a better solution.
If you want a somewhat dark color for say roofing, then some high tech coating that is reflective of the roughly half of the solar input in the infrared might be helpful. I believe that is what has been done in California where tile roofing is the modern norm, and light colored roofing has not yet caught on. Out here away from the coast you can count on summers being 99plus percent cloud free, and any reduction in solar heating would be significant.
You might want to take a look at the spam module (http://drupal.org/project/spam). It's helped me keep the spam under control on my sites.
If money buys oil, and oil = food,
more money = more oil, which = more food,
which = more people,
does less oil = less money = less food = less people?
Hello Harlynman,
http://www.energybulletin.net/28720.html
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Peak Phosphorus: Readings
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http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3086
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Peak minerals
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You can human-labor and/or FF/biodiesel tractor-labor farmland with all your might and wishes, but if the soil is lacking in fertility + water--it will all be in vain.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks for the links. I never knew that we are facing a decline in phosphorus, en element critical to plant growth. This may have as much impact on world food production as peak oil.
Phosphorus is a key componenet of DNA. No phosphorus = no DNA = no life.
Mark in St Louis, USA
Take a look at the moonscape of a former island called Nauru:
Link to Google images search Nauru Phosphate
Of course it does. People who believe otherwise, whether they realize it or not, believe in magic. I would put another = in there however. Less oil means less employment. First millions, then billions of people will have no employment as industry and transportation shuts down.
Glider Guider has just posted a very good essay, with charts on the subject:
World Energy to 2050 A Half Century of Decline
And in my opinion, the very best essay ever published on the subject:
Energy and Human Evolution by David Price
Ron Patterson
I disagree with this simpistic approach. By the way i read the 'to 2050' article and it is very good.
Becasue much of our energy is wasted on poor efficiency on the roads and in our houses there are still plenty of ways to eek out our energy supply. +ve GDP in view of C+C has been talked about.
For example There is no reason why more countries can't have CAFE 50+ MPG as there are plenty of cars that do this.
The example above is one of many solutions we are all capable of conjuring up but as we know the political will to drive those changes must first be in place.
Therefore if eventually most people/poiticians/business do start to figure out we really are in a mess we can husband our energy and still feed the planet (here's hoping!!).
Marco.
Rest of my post disappeared!. Was going to say we for example we can get CAFE up to 50+MPG
many solutions are obvious when the political will to drive them is in place.
Marco.
I am a little shocked that people still use this old argument. It simply does not matter that much energy is wasted. It simply does not matter how much extra food we grow that could feed the world if evenly distributed. Those are very simplistic arguments that won't hold water if examined closely.
All that energy produces food, goods and services that are purchased by people with money. As they disappear then the jobs to produce them will disappear also. Prosperous people give food away. Not so prosperous people do not. As prosperity declines in rich countries, malnutrition will skyrocket in poor countries. Anarchy in these countries will become much worse than it already is. How bad is it already? Well, it was this bad in 1994:
THE COMING ANARCHY
And when our oil supply really starts to drop off the cliff, we are going to fix everything by tightening up on wasted energy. Give me a break!
Ron Patterson
I've been hit up by panhandlers three times this week in the North Dallas area, versus maybe one per year in past years.
And then there was Sunday morning. I had to drop my wife off at the airport very early in the morning, and I stopped by the office at about 6:00 A.M. I noticed a guy, presumably a homeless guy, sleeping on a bench in front of the office building--something I have literally never seen before in North Dallas. I went out at 8:00 A.M. to get a bite to eat, and he was gone.
It may be time to get that conceal and carry permit.
WT, no need for the C&C permit.
The guy on the park bench probably already has one!
:)
Marco, I suspect you vaporized half your post with some stray HTML.
It disappeared because you had a couple of pointy brackets in your text. You have to be careful using those, because they're HMTL symbols.
does less oil = less money = less food = less people?
Less 'food' can express itself as no chickens in everyone's pot.
Austin Texas Mayor wants to revive Light Rail Proposal
Austin voted down a 52 mile system by a small margin in 2000 (about 20 miles would be open today if they had won). A minimally useful diesel commuter rail line is being built instead.
The Mayor is trying to put together something that can work and be paid for via unconventional means ($ from airport as one source).
http://www.news8austin.com/content/your_news/default.asp?ArID=194266
A poll is halfway down.
Best Hopes for Austin,
Alan
"A poll is halfway down."
Yes, a poll is...
Just not the one you probably think it is ;)
Back during the election season, political partisans made it a sort of hobby to go around to media websites and "freep" various polls about who won a debate. Ultimately these polls got to be so skewed that it was obvious that the results were no longer meaningful (if they ever were meaningful in any way).
At one point I remember a newspaper online article about a debate, and the poll had to do with which way you should install a roll of toilet paper. I think the editors had realized the futility of it all, and just put this up just for fun.
Hello TODers,
Is Israel applying Asimov's Foundation concepts + the porridge principle of metered decline by constantly tweaking societal Liebig Minimums in Gaza?
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL2868595720071028
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Palestinians say Israel cuts Gaza fuel supply
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Recall my posting of a few days ago whereby electricity was cut too.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I'm rereading The Foundation books...wow Asimov was a prophet!!
A little more speculation:
If the petri dish of Gaza cannot grow larger and its well-defined habitat is at 11:59.99, doesn't it make sense for the keystone Israeli predators, as the First Foundation, to re-equilibrate the entire ecosystem-- thereby rolling back the clock to approx. 11:30 or less?
IMO, the best Second Foundation response for the Gazans is to go to full Peak Outreach [which includes comprehensive birth control] and implement the full biosolar paradigm shift upon themselves ASAP. More guns + babies is futile, and only leads to greater anarchy and eco-decimation further delaying eco-recovery.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
High, TODers
The Petroleum Intel Weekly has what sound like some interesting articles behind their pay wall but here are the front page teasers:
And...
PO is slowly percolating into mainstream media. Now if we just had leadership...
Hmm...
Given the play the British National Party (a neo-nazi-style send-em back where they came from party) are getting for their embrace of Peak Oil...
...I worry about where such leadership will come from. Authoritarians are bred in times like these.
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
I reckon we'll have the likes of John Major, recognising that we're back against the wall, and they will just turn around and start fighting the wall (ayrabs, or generally evil people like that). What fun.
Fellow TODers: as most may know, I've been pedaling (as in bike riding, not selling) Organicengines SUVs for my "sustainable household helper" work here in Minneapolis for about 7 years.
My body is aging (slowly!) and as my kids are in teen years, it seems that there are plenty of demands on my schedule related to family as well as work.
I've been considering using a non-human-powered-vehicle for at least some of my travel.
Two options I am considering are the Zenncar and the Gemcar. Here is info on them.
http://www.lindenhills.coop/files/ZENNHandout_0.pdf
http://gemcar.com/
Are there other options I ought to consider for light (200-600 lbs), slow neighborhood load-hauling?
Is going from all-HPV to electric a big step backwards? My body tells me that after 7 years of heavy rising, I might need to back off a bit!
Beware of joint wear !
We tend to live longer than we were designed for :-)
You are a good guy and I would not like to see you wear out before your time !
GEMs are fairly common in New Orleans (several on the road, etc.) and seem to work well.
Electrical demand by a NEV is small and NOT a major step backwards !
Best Hopes, You do inspire me !
Alan
How do GEMs get by with low maximum speed in New Orleans? In Austin, I would fear being driven over.
The speed limit on regular city streets is 25 mph (35 mph on streets with a neutral ground (median to y'all). Max speed of a GEM is 25 mph, so that "works".
Also, we are used to bicyclists and are more cordial than Austin drivers were when I last moved from there (I passed GWBs inauguration parade as Texas Governor on my way out of town).
Best Hopes for "traffic calming",
Alan
Cycling tends to be pretty easy on the joints. That's part of the reason I like it so much myself.
I agree. I'm in my mid-forties, and my knees and hips are doing fine. My right elbow has tendonitis due to vibrations from riding a bicycle. It's doing better now, but I have to be careful to perform some simple exercises and stretches on the forearm muscles to keep the elbow from becoming irritated. I had a problem with my Achilles tendons a few years back, but I've overcome that problem with better cycling technique.
Cycling requires a lot more work to make it a viable form of transportation. Knowing about and possession of proper clothing and gear is vital for year-round cycling. Precipitation, temperature, wind direction, etc all dictate what to wear and carry, when to leave home so enough time is available to get where one must go, and so forth. I travel up to 40 miles in a round-about trip between client locations and my home in Chicago carrying tools (for my job and for the bicycle), laptop(s), books, changes of clothing, etc. In the winter it can take me up to an hour to fully prepare for a long journey through the city. If you do what I do, you have to be prepared to fix a flat at 2AM with snow whipping around you, 10 miles from home, and in some pretty unsavory neighborhoods.
Hello Beggar,
First off, I hereby bestow upon you the much-coveted, but very, very, rarely-earned: 'Nectar of the Gods' Medal of Honor Award [A beer bottlecap as small-scale representation of our planetary yeast petri-dish] for your Outstanding human power Achievements.
You have been a Terrific Inspiration to many--I very heartfelt commend you. Don't feel bad about needing an electric kicker as the years pile on. Many times when I was doing my half-empty beverage Peakoil Shoutout: I was cheering on bicyclists like you.
I think Gemcars are cool--do they have a trailering capability? I would think you would also want to be able to pull the occasional bulky or long load on an extra pull-behind.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hey, Bob -- the GEMcars I've seen are not equipped with trailer hitches, but maybe they could be.
The Gemcar models are for 2, 4, or 6 people. Then there is a short-bed cargo hauler and a longer-bed cargo hauler.
The Gemcars can handle up to about 1000 pounds at the tops, IIRC.
Beggar;
Thanks for keeping the cyclist perspective alive here. Much of our solution is HPV and electric. My wife and I are tandem riding (we are 54) and I have not touched my car going on 6 weeks. I plan on riding through the snowy winter.
The other day I was talking to the regional rep of this company. They are building electric short haul trucks in California and will offer their current models as electrics.
(Regenerative braking and 72 volt)We have a couple of their gas models but they have some electrics on college campuses.
http://www.vantagevehicle.com/truckextspecialm.html
They haven't updated their site yet. I can put you in touch with them for specifics. And thanks again.
Thanks, Alan, bob, and xurb for your encouraging replies!
Yes, after 7 or more years of heavy load-hauling by pedal-power, I really do feel the need for a bit of help. At 49, I am not quite the man I was at 19, that's for sure!
I feel a bit guilty about this change, but it does seem that a change needs to be made.
I appreciate the comments about specific electrics, and will check out any links or suggestions. Thanks for the link, xurb.
By the way, we recently had a stretch of rain 18 says long, and have had these odd, long spells of dry weather punctuated by several days of heavy rain. The combination of things readily available in a small NEV seems to be quite attractive to me for those cold, rainy days.
I've had a GEM for two years and about 2000 miles. I also have a PU but it only gets used when long trips are needed.
My GEM is a 2005 model and has been trouble free. It is not stock but has been modified to go 35 mph. Washington State (where I live) has defined a new electric vehicle category (MSV - Medium Speed Vehicle) which allows for 35 mph speeds. The state of Montana also has an MSV category. Eventually, it would be very useful if the Feds defined this category and all the states adopted it.
I couldn't tell any difference in my electric rates after getting the GEM. The largest expense is (lead acid) battery replacement about every three years. Hopefully, in the near future, better battery technology will become available at a reasonable price. Currently, Lithium batteries would cost $15,300 for a set of six.
The longest practical range with the current batteries is about 20 flat land miles with reserves.
The reason for the speed limitations of the LSV/MSV categories is that not all normal car safety equipment is required thus making the vehicle less expensive.
Hello HankF,
Glad to see Cascadia leading the charge to allowing electric vehicles at modestly higher speeds. This can only increase public adoption rates as we go postPeak.
I also expect Cascadia to be an early adopter of narrow-gauge minitrains, with an eventual move to rail-bikes and rail-PHEVs too, to further spiderweb-extend from the standard-gauge station endpoints of Alan Drake's RR & TOD proposals.
It would be interesting to take a Gemcar, remove the tires, then install steel wheels to see if it could efficiently move the absolutely beautiful mini-railcars in these linked photos:
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train2.jpg
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train1.jpg
Could your Gemcar be easily adapted, then postPeak used to move fifty or more people? Inquiring minds want to know!
Unfortunately, the pathetic leadership of my Asphalt Wonderland isn't so enlightened. They don't even allow 2-wheeled lane-splitting like California.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Beggar: What are your opinions on recumbents? One of their advantages is that they are easier on some joints.
Ammond -- the OE SUVs I ride are semi-recumbent. I think that they are wonderful!
I recommend that folks head down to the nearest recumbent dealer and test ride a few of the bikes, but especially the trikes.
The trikes -- such as the EZ-3 -- do not require effort for balance, and so all of your energy is devoted to pedaling.
Also, trikes are sometimes already set up for some hauling, can be easily equipped for more hauling, and can tow trailers as well.
Everyone has their own favorite riding positions and bikes -- though. It is about what works for you and your body.
Recumbents are great for me, but uprights are great for some folks.
The beauty about recumbents is that not only will the driver of the large SUV not know he has just rolled over something, but it will be so quick, neither will you!!
look at some of these recumbents:
http://www.geocities.com/rcgilmore3/prone.htm
Marco.
I bought a electric bike kit from:
http://electricrider.com/crystalyte/phoenix.htm
I weigh 225 lb and the Brute Motor gets me to work in thirty minutes, which is 7 miles and a thousand vertical feet. On flat ground it does 0 to 25 mile/hour in something like 20 seconds without pedaling, and has a range of 26 miles without pedaling. I always pedal though.
http://www.bicycles-electric-bikes.com/crystalyte_phoenix.htm
Brute model
Beggar - hope this thread is not dead yet so you can see this.
round here there are a couple of Taylor Dunn ev trucks that do serious work.
http://taylordunnparts.com/electruck.php
The Energy Watch Group web site is currently unavailable.
Does anyone have any information about whether this is temporary or something else is going on? I wanted to download the recent stark Peak Oil report from that site.
Seems to be working now. I just downloaded the 10/07 oil report.
Try this link. It seems to be a Yahoo cache of the report.
edit: Doh! Looks like the energywatchgroup site started working just as I searched Yahoo for it. That previous link isn't a cached version. http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-200...
Fuel for Life: Diesel Fragrances
(flash animation advertisement)
Here it is: let them burn perfume.
Compare and Contrast ?
Who are the Vaudville Frauds collecting awards?
And who is at least making token efforts or better to reduce their consumption and/or become responsible for their own energy "needs" ???
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/jay_leno_garage/4216780.html
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Actor Ed Begley Jr., an ardent, sometimes eccentric environmentalist, is bringing his wife-exasperating watts-watching to reality television
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/features/20070105-9999-1c05edm.html
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Al Gore asks...“Are you ready to change the way you live?”
And answers for himself and his family...
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Pledge
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... Global warming Hollywood activists such as Laurie David, John Travolta, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Madonna – to name a few – continue to alarm the public about fears of catastrophic global warming and demand that Americans change the way they live.
The question remains however, will these same Hollywood alarmists reduce their own energy consumption by giving up their multiple houses and private jets to change the way they live? ...
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.PressReleases...
Bravo SOP, I think you just made a post that didn't make you sound like a t***l. Thank you, I'll check out those links.
Recipient of AA, Alberta Advantage
that was a bit harsh... if you feel someone hasn't contributed positively in the past, but is doing now, perhaps it's best to leave the past behind... just a thought
heck, maybe one day Anti-doomer will hit drinking age and realise the world isn't gonna lay a future of hugs and kisses at the end of a gold-paved road... and when he/she does we should treat the posts at face value I'd think...
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
I really do not mind the "harsh" - I frequently dish out the same so can't complain. And I don't mind what his opinion is of any of my past posts.
Leno's "green garage?" You bet. Let's have a look at what he has in that garage:
I know what you mean - that's why I put the word "needs" in quotes. Some people define their needs and wants differently, and some can afford most all their needs or wants.
I still think it is commendable that Leno is at least trying to take responsibility for at least SOME of his own personal energy use and future personal energy security.
The more Jay Leno pays to secure AE energy now, the less someone else's children will have to pay to supply Jay's future energy "needs" (at least for his garage in this case).
This is for TOD but i am an inept computeruser..
My local solutions/daily positive actions focus on growing our family's food (not much yet) and using compost toilets. This latter inspired by Joe Jenkins outstanding book "Humanure". There are several facets to this as a PO item. Moving water is the largest municipal energy use just about everywhere. Aside from the patent waste of shifting valuable resources down the drain with drinking water, you have 95% of the nitrogen fertilizer for conventional agriculture in the US still being made from natural gas.(gasp!) Even Victor Hugo noted this massive waste in Les Miserables in the 1830s, the chapter on Paris' sewers...
Our family has never owned a car (I am 53 and there are four of us) but my recommendation is for those shifting to bikes to start their kids out young, it is very hard for adults to safely shift into traffic on a bike...many mortalities and injuries from failure to be ultra defensive/aware of how invisible we are to cars...I am trying locally to get an initiative that aims to add lane to HWY 1 for cars to focus instead on heavy rail commuter line support. We have 100,000 people within a mile of the existing rail line...
I am rather aghast at that ! (If I understand you correctly).
More lanes for cars will *NOT* make bicycling safer ! More road = more miles traveled = more traffic everywhere.
I assume that you are in Miami. Are you talking about the commuter rail initiative to the south on CSX track to extend Tri-Rail ? Or the plans by Metro-Rail to put almost of Dade County within bicycling distance of elevated Rapid Rail (like subway but in the air) ?
http://www.miamidade.gov/citt//RailMap.htm
Medium brown lines are post-2014.
Once built, most Miamians could get by without a car, just a bicycle and a rail pass !
Best Hopes,
Alan
If I understand correctly, the original initiative is to add another lane for cars, and christyk is trying to get this modified to focus on heavy rail commuter instead.
This header article immediately brings to mind the 'Limits to Growth' study. One of the main parameters they use in their growth scenarios is the overall impact of degradation of the environment on human survivability. I wonder how many will see the connection.
New video game based in the post peak oil world
Frontlines: Fuel of War
Watch Trailer
The history as related in the trailer is right out of the headlines and is a very plausible projection.
Nice find.
I hope it's a good one, I'll definitely have a look. It's things like this that may open gamers eyes.
kind of on topic. I saw Micheal Clayton last night, saw Syriana a few weeks ago. Both very good movies. Clooney is involved with some pretty talented people. In our pop culture society, these things are important to raise awareness.
Recipient of AA, Alberta Advantage
You might also like 'The Deal' with Christian Slater. I found it to be an excellent post peak oil movie. As a matter of fact, I think I'll watch it again as soon as the football games are over.
looks good but i don't think it will wake anyone up. quite the contrary i see it helping the deniers.
...quite the contrary i see it helping the deniers.
Could you please expand on that? How might it help the deniers?
Sit and think about it.
presenting it they way they do in that game they will think of it as fiction.
Financial Sense: POST-PEAK PRICES
$1,000 a Barrel Oil / $20,000 a Pound Uranium
Interesting Article. A couple of priceless excerpts.
When Will Biofuels Be At Every Fuel Pump, And From Where Will They Come? (Science Daily)
...
Here's one UK poster's comments:
When does peak oil arrive? I used to think 2020ish but actually the more I read the more I don't see it ever arriving. Spare capacity increases all the way out to 2012 even assuming quite robust demand growth. But that demand growth is based on two (IMO) major flaws. Firstly that OECD demand stages some miraculous recovery then starts to grow strongly again (if anything the opposite appears to be actually occuring). Secondly that oil demand in oil producing countries goes stratespheric (when in reality a lot of oil producing countries are already starting to grow concerned about their domestic growth and are starting to implement policies to stop it, although obviously these aren't ever going to be easy or popular). So by 2012 we should have extremely high levels of spare capacity - enough to deal with demand growth out to 2020 even assuming that further projects only match depletion, and I personally think they'll be in excess of that.
Personally I think we'll see a plateu in demand at very high prices (which started some years ago) followed at some point by falling demand (just as we did in the 80's). I'm not a believer in the current theory that EM markets have disconected from developed markets so growth in the EM world should slow rapidly next year as whats happened this year feeds into them, plus their currencies have appreciated and are likely to continue to appreciate (partially my fault I have to admit), making the outlook worse.
Then the big difference between now and the 80's is that oil prices aren't going back to $10 again - they'll stay very high at $35-$45, and then Alternatives are way more advanced than they were. Solar especially. Chuck in global warming/environmental concerns allowing carbon taxing to get pushed through and longer term demand forecasts just look pure fantasy to me.
Any comments?
Yes. A deeply flawed analysis. But I will let others do the demolishing in detail as its a fine Monday morning and things to do!
It's a lovely Monday here - but I think many posters are ending their weekend and probably not posting...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
This on drudge right now, no link, will post when it comes up.
ELECTRIC CARS: Plan to deploy infrastructure of battery-charging stations in United States, Europe... Developing...
Here it is, great stuff.
Reimagining the Automobile Industry by Selling the Electricity
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/29/technology/29agassi.html?ref=business
Here it is, great stuff.
Sadly, no.
This plan depends on both as yet undeveloped lithium ion batteries to power the cars and dilithium crystal based starship engines being harnessed to power the electrical grid.
Storage technologies that do not exist yet can't even store electrical power and they certainly don't generate it. This so called "plan" depends on burning lots and lots of coal to power the grid ... perhaps politically palatable, but AGW physics and petroleum reservoir geology don't care at all about the shared fantasies of large groups of humans.
Things will unwind over the next six months such that the $200M investment is really ... $50M ... and above ground issues will discourage further investment.
If we can't do it right now whatever it might be, we're probably not going to get it developed in time to make any material difference.
So ... stop wishing for the technology fairy to leave society something under its pillow in exchange for the empty socket of an exhausted supergiant oil field, because it ain't gonna happen ...
Full disclaimer, I haven't nor don't intend on reading the article. Now: A123 systems and simply LiFePO4 battery chemistry appears to be pretty well developed and there are now Chinese manufacturers pumping these batteries out (like Yesa Battery). Because it's still such a new technology and the batteries are so good, the demand for them is high compared to the supply so they still appear expensive. However, used in a vehicle over their lifetime their price may actually wind up lower than lead acid which is already competitive. So I believe the battery tech is there (not even mentioning if Altairnano's claims for their batteries pan out).
The whole generating electricity to put in those batteries...yeah, that's going to be a problem.
SCT, you make a lot of assumptions on why this won't work. Actually storage technologies already do exist that can store large amounts of energy, meet NaS batteries which could be used to store energy before being delivered to vehicles:
http://www.csemag.com/article/CA6493292.html?industryid=47247
The EV-1 had a electric mile range of 60 miles, 10 YEARS ago. Billions of dollars are being spent to bring down the cost of electric cars.
As for where the energy will come from, yes we will burn a ton of coal, and build more nuclear plants as we slowly transform into a solar, wind, hydro, wave power, geothermal economy. These things take time, but they will happen. Now i'm not saying the transition will be totally painless, it will be anything but. However it will happen.
Nymex $92.50, up .64 so far overnight.
So much for that poll we just did, looks like we might close that one before I wake up in the morning.
That "tick, tick, tick" sound I've been hearing seems to be getting louder...
Tapis is knocking on $95.
$92.64
$100, here we come! ;-)
Is this the composite price for all crude or is it one type that is selected to be representative? I've been curious to know the volume of production by type ...
It's NYMEX light, sweet crude:
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_descri.aspx
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude
This page has pricing for eleven different types of crude but I am curious if there is information on the production volume for each. I've asked this a couple of times and still no takers.
Light sweet crude is a benchmark, but I wonder how much of total volume is the benchmark grade oil, and if the percentage of benchmark grade oil is changing due to depletion.
Those are probably remedial questions for those in the know, but not everyone here is a commodities trading genius :-)
Bookmark these two links instead. They'll save you a couple clicks.
Oil
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx
Natural Gas
http://www.nymex.com/ng_fut_cso.aspx
Plus you only need to click the disclaimer once.
jt
Thanks for the links jt. This may explain the lower than expected prices at the pump with the run-up in crude prices. Refiners are using stock on hand, and current long term contracts, then looking for the the prices to come down in the short term in the next few months.
Just speculation on my part as to the slow rise in pump prices. I would think that if crude stays at these price levels much longer, the stored cheaper stock will start to run low and the would need to start buy input product at a higher rate.
93 and counting, looks I lost on the poll!
Tapis now $95
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude
Brent crude hits record $89.40 on Mexico outage
I had been wondering why there wasn't more concern over Mexico's production.
More on Mexico...
Mexico shutting 600,000 bpd oil output due cold front
Plus they shut most exports 1.7 mmb for two or three days last week when the storm that rammed the supply ship into the drilling rig also straiffed the ports. Added to Sunday, that makes it three or four days with no exports to LA/TX. I get a 5.1mmb hit to lasts weeks numbers (on 10/31 report) and perhaps 3.4 more hit to next Wednesday's (11/7) numbers.
Mexico is having a very bad month indeed.
As I stated below, the high inventories is because the ports were closed for at least two days last week during a storm that killed 18 oil workers and now the ports are closed again.
Their "high" inventories are coming out of the 10/31 and 11/7 EIA reports. Ironically, these reports will push the Inflation - O - Meter upwards just 3.75 hours before the spineless wimps at the fed lower rates. (No disprect intended to acutal spineless wimps).
Geez..... NYMEX $93.19.
CNBC is showing Tyler Mathisen talking about fashion and antiques istead of Worldwide Exchange. WTF. Is the world melting down and they don't want us to see? Now Dinner Party Designs.!!!??!!
Say, not that I know about such things, but the US dollar seems to be continuing to tank. As I check it just now, it's trading considerably under 77. Haven't fiscal folks long speculated about some mythical low price which will cause the US$ large foreign holders to start dumping them rapidly so as not to be last to do so?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax
http://xe.com/
and I won't be surprised to see gold over US800 when I wake up tomorrow....
That "mythical" low was 80. We're in new territory now.
Investors around the globe are in a race for the door to get out of US dollars. China, Japan and Taiwan led the way in dumping US bonds, with $163 billion in foreign investment leaving the country last week. What had been an orderly and quiet exodus, last week turned into a mass rush for the exits trying not to be left holding worthless US currency and debt instruments.
David Woo, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said Washington was happy to see the dollar slide. "They don't care. They see it as a way of correcting the deficit. " he said.
Nations across the globe have ceased listening to the pronouncements by US Treasury Secretary Paulson that the US wants a strong dollar.
Leo Melamed, chairman emeritus of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange said, “It’s laughable to say we have a strong-dollar policy, I think we have an ignore-the-dollar policy.”
US markets are already pricing in a 50 basis point cut when the Fed meets October 31st. This will only exacerbate the problem, weakening the USD further. "You can't just keep shoveling money into the system and expect it to retain any value. While the big boys are being bailed out, the currency and the economy are being wrecked."
Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well."
http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/
Prognostication Challenge
OK, we talk endlessly about petroleum production minutia here and many of us use the abbreviation WTSHTF, but just what does that look like?
I don't know what event will be the trigger, but from my perspective TSHTF isn't an event, its a meta-event. Things happen every day and I cringe when I read the reports in the Drum Beat, but the real trouble will start when the 99.99999% of people who don't read this site suddenly notice that things have changed.
The change might be something simple like a week long zoom to $4.00/gallon gas right before Christmas, or something complex and ugly like an accidental weapons discharge in Iran's general direction, but when this change arrives and everyone knows then the troubles truly begin.
Notice that I said change and not event. Those with foresight react to events that presage changes, which is what most here are doing. What will cause TSHTF will be something that comes and stays. Its arrival may be an event, but it will be a highly visible fact or an ongoing process rather than a point in time.
I think I've previously picked 17 October 2008 as the day for Something Big to happen in terms of U.S. government - a military backed arrest of the Bushies, a false flag terror operation and ensuing martial law, or some such. This would be WTSHTF for the United States, no matter if its the shadow coup coming out of hiding or We, The People unwinding the Bush administration's misbehavior with the help of our military, and I think that is what will really set the rest of the world off in a big way.
What do you think will be the triggering event? How soon will it occur?
This may be the central paradox to peak oil awareness. It's not entirely clear that "education" will ameliorate the situation, even though that's our default assumption. A relatively small percentage of people will even be able to see it at the rough level of complexity it is generally discussed here, which is in turn necessarily a simplification.
But yes, at the point people realized that things were going to get worse for a century at least, there would be some dramatic and abrupt effects from that. Whether that will happen I dunno. Some large majority of the world's population thinks that they will survive their own deaths. Thus, more likely that an enemy will be found and blamed, and another and another. (I'd be amused to see the U.S. declare a "War on Entropy", has a nice ring to it)
My guess is there will be a number of small cascades which in turn destabilize the larger systems and make them riper for collapse. Certainly if I were a foreign holder of US dollars, I'd think about divesting, and that will cause some stuff. Abrupt changes in anything can cause market panics, so that's probably a good bet, so to speak.
In principle, it's unpredictable. Like a ski area after a heavy snowstorm, you know that there are avalanches on hair-trigger due to self-organized criticality, but you can't know where they are. You either blunder into them, or introduce a large enough perturbation (cannon blast, etc) that you trigger them at a known time. Triggering the unseen avalanches at a known time is probably the most rational thing to do, and I'm not just talking about snow here. Just as it would make sense to set off the San Andreas fault at a known moment when everyone is prepared for it. But that's too rational (see Nate's posts about discount rates).
It all may turn on the imaginary voices heard by an alcohol-and-cocain-ravaged mind. Not to mention any names....
Earlier this summer I really thought that things would chug along for another 2 years, but now I'm really not so sure.
Yesterday I overheard a conversation where a young woman was chatting about how her therapist was telling her to reduce stress and put herself first ... hence her enormous credit card debt (treats for herself to reduce stress she told her companion) and this debt was OK with her. So I think, financially, now is the time that TSHTF.
For the rest (energy issues) I think that also the time is almost now that TSHTF for most of the world. Maybe a little delay here for us in NA. But not in many other places.
I don't think there really was a single event. Cheap stuff from China maybe ... who knows?
As for being aware of the TSHingTF: I think, maybe, that even if one is aware one simply will not care until, as Mr. Kunstler recently put it, the moment before "you", as a member of Skippy's family is:
If this is true
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
And the Fed is loosing control of interest rates, and is forced to raise rates, it is like a nuke going off on Wall St.
Almost worth throwing a couple $$ at it on margin, you lose you lose, but if you win it is huge.
Everyone and their dog is betting the other way.
Gold is taking off also
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
I have been following Karl's comments closely for several months now, and he has been on target.
If your just following PO, you may want to start following the financial markets also. Reading Denninger's nightly market tickers is a good place to get some real information in a condensed format. He uses some really salty language, but its to really drive the point home.
This is not the time to be whistling past the graveyard!
On peak oil, there has to be change to increase the level of awareness. Although total liquids production is on a plateau, there is probably a a significant decline in production rates of light seet crude, especially if light crude from Ghawar is decreasing. This is causing light sweet crude grades such as Tapis to continue increasing in price, not just a one off event. Today it hit went over $US95/barrel - it's now at $US94.86.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude
A significant change that will occur from increasing light sweet crude prices is an continued increase in air fares, as a large proportion of an airline's costs is from fuel.
"At least five airlines raised ticket prices this week, as oil prices touched new records" according to Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/10/26/ap4268571.html
Have a look at the AMEX AIRLINE INDEX, ^XAL, chart on yahoo
In the last two years, it reached a peak of just over 65 in Jan07 and has fallen steadily to only 46 now, following an inverse correlation with the rising oil price.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EXAL&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=
Interest rates are cut another 50-100 basis points. The US dollar gradually declines to $1.50 to the euro and then plunges to $2.00. Crude and gasoline imports drastically drop as sellers demand euros and the US can't afford it. Trucks run low on gas and deliveries are delayed or canceled. Grocery stores start to run out of food. Gas stations go dry and lines form around city blocks. In many places, gun totting thugs begin roaming streets stealing gas and food etc. and shooting those who resist. This all happens within the space of 2 weeks. Martial law is imposed and .... well you know the rest. Maybe order is gradually restored as rationing is imposed. Add to that a US attack on Iran or a Turkish attack in Iraq and all bets are off.
The USGS said that "reserves in 2000 of recoverable oil were about 3 trillion barrels and that peak production would not come for about 30 years".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html
What if the USGS were to release a statement, by the end of this year, that there is lots of oil in the ground but due to above ground factors, peak oil production has probably passed in 2006? That would cause some changes!
Consequently, all demand based forecasts by the EIA, IEA, OPEC and CERA have to be revised downwards. Due to Saudi Arabia releasing field by field production and reserves data, there is now unanimous agreement about Peak Oil which becomes an issue equal in priority to Global Warming.
I'm not convinced that there will be a discernible TSHTF singularity, and if there is I'm pretty convinced that the majority will misidentify its root causes for at least a decade. A vast amount has already been buried under the "post-9/11 world" construct, I've already seen half a dozen points come and go that at the time I believed would induce widespread rioting. But lack of popular feedback won't stop this train.
My personal checklist is getting pretty far along, and I suspect a lot of people have key points that will cause them to rethink their habits. Gas over $4? Milk over $7? Another Republican president? 20% smaller Twinkies? For some people, local events might make things more sudden. Having to move because permafrost under their house melted, extreme water conservation measures, getting flooded out or burned down one time too many.
Humans have a remarkable ability to mitigate entropy, I expect a lot of people to make use of it in very disorganized and seemingly futile fashions, thereby keeping the show somewhat near on the road. Less Olduvai Gorge, more Olduvai Extremely Bumpy Slope. Lots of things almost going down, getting yelled about, coming back, going down for real, getting yelled about more, bouncing a couple more times before really crashing. Increasing regional differences, patchwork functionality, wasting lots of energy hunting through geographic patchworks for functionality.
I expect to hear "everybody knows" long before I hear "we were stupid not to notice, or care". I expect to hear a lot of "this is the way it's always been", referring to things hardly imagined a decade earlier, and a lot of "great new innovation!" regarding stuff that's been used for centuries. I think people will, for the most part, get used to things without surprise and without having consciously seen them coming. Just walk into it one day and say "yup, that figures" and move on.
So I watch the Red Sox celebrate, then I check the Nymex one more time - $93.07!
That was fun, back to the real world.
Indy
From Financial Times..............
An unprecedented construction boom is gaining momentum in Saudi Arabia with a raft of multibillion-dollar projects to upgrade infrastructure and meet pressing social challenges beginning to take effect.
The boom may be less visible than those in the kingdom's neighbours such as Dubai and Qatar but the needs and the numbers are massive - thousands of kilometres of new roads and railways; billions of dollars of water, sewerage and electricity plants; and 4m new housing units over the next decade, with housing investment requirements through to 2020 estimated at $320bn, according to Sagia, the kingdom's investment authority.
Sagia officials cite a $624bn (£304bn, €434bn) investment programme launch-ed last year to take the country through to 2020 as King Abdullah and his government look to utilise the immense oil wealth the state is enjoying.
Missing in all this.....
The energy required to operate it............
ELM lives !!!
INDY
As I pointed out over on the ASPO thread, if we just projected Saudi Arabia's 2005 production forward for 70 years with no decline (the Economist Magazine's assertion), and if we projected their 2005 to 2006 rate of increase in consumption forward (+5.7%/year), they would cease being a net exporter in 2036, a long term (25 year) net export decline rate of about -10%/year. Net export declines tend to accelerate with time over the decline period.
And for what it's worth, at +5.7%/year, the Saudis would be consuming 108 mbpd in 2075. Note that Rembrandt puts their 2007 increase in consumption at +9%.
WTF??????
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7066867.stm
This is very rich indeed! They are known to be one of the biggest financiers of terrorism.