DrumBeat: October 21, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 21, 2007 - 8:54am
Rising seas threaten 21 mega-cities
Of the 33 cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 are highly vulnerable, says the Worldwatch Institute.They include Dhaka, Bangladesh; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Shanghai and Tianjin in China; Alexandria and Cairo in Egypt; Mumbai and Kolkata in India; Jakarta, Indonesia; Tokyo and Osaka-Kobe in Japan; Lagos, Nigeria; Karachi, Pakistan; Bangkok, Thailand, and New York and Los Angeles in the United States, according to studies by the United Nations and others.
Are oil prices at their highest?
Pinpointing the all-time inflation-adjusted record for oil prices is nowhere near as exact as it might seem.
People often ask: I want to get greener, what should I do? New light bulbs? A hybrid? A solar roof? Well, all of those things are helpful. But actually, the greenest thing you can do is this: Choose the right leaders. It is so much more important to change your leaders than change your light bulbs.
Over the past few years, drilling crews have been lighting up the skies with towering rigs used to drill for natural gas.
Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq
In the latest bout of violence around the northern oil city of Kirkuk, insurgents blew up an oil pipeline, battled a convoy carrying bodyguards of a deputy prime minister and ambushed a police chief, Iraqi officials said on Friday.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator quits
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, viewed by the West as a moderating influence in Tehran, resigned ahead of crucial talks with Europe this week over Iran's nuclear program, signaling that officials here may have closed the door to any possible negotiated settlement in its standoff with the West.
One World, Taking Risks Together
The breadth and complexity of today’s global markets create risks so great that no group of business leaders — or even a single country — can control them.
World Bank Report Puts Agriculture at Core of Antipoverty Effort
For the first time in a quarter century, the World Bank’s flagship annual report on development puts agriculture and the productivity of small farmers at the heart of a global agenda to reduce poverty. Three-quarters of the world’s poor still live in the countryside.
Jordan's Budget deficit likely to exceed JD800 million - experts
Rising international oil prices are likely to widen the state budget deficit, which analysts expect to reach JD800-JD900 million.The crude oil prices have hit a record level above $90 per barrel. As a result, the budget deficit would increase by JD4 million each day until the end of the year, economist Fahed Fanek said yesterday.
A gaze into the future: Officials offer their forecasts for gasoline, natural gas and electricity bills this winter
Some expenses are easy to cut from the budget.The weeklong family vacations. The extra trips to the movie theater. The weekend dinners in town.
But one expense is a lot harder to dodge.
Energy prices.
Mishkin Says Inflation Minus Food, Energy Is a `Better Guide'
Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin said inflation measures that exclude food and energy costs are a ``better guide'' to underlying changes in prices.
Heating oil aid program in trouble
The Independent Connecticut Petroleum Association is recommending its 530 members refuse to participate in CEAP. Oil dealers must sign a contract to receive payments, but the payments are made at a discount. ICPA wants CEAP to pay retail.
Higher metal prices make theft attractive
Thieves have stolen ground wires from 5,000 to 10,000 utility poles throughout the state owned by electric utility Westar Energy. Westar corporate spokeswoman Karla Olson said it costs about $100 a pole to replace the wires."We are now replacing ground wires with steel wire coated with copper, which won't bring as much in a salvage yard," she said. "We're hoping that discourages thieves."
Grain prices take their toll on businesses
Base malts, used to make many of the beers at the pub, have gone up 50 percent. Specialty malts, for finer brews, are up nearly 100 percent.“This is a worldwide crisis,” said Wilson, who recently was hired to take over beer-making at the brewery.
Del. could learn from N.Y.'s ill wind
With some of the highest electricity rates in the country, wall-to-wall sprawl and congestion on the roads and in the air, Long Island appeared the ideal candidate for an offshore wind farm....But re-estimates put construction costs at four times the original price. The power authority's new chief, Kevin Law, said the project is likely to be shelved as his organization considers more affordable renewable-energy projects.
Delware: Offshore windfarm numbers might not add up
The developer of the proposed Delaware offshore wind farm says it can beat the costly prices that plagued a Long Island wind farm.But a Long Island man who has crunched offshore wind farm numbers says it's unclear from Bluewater's financial documents how it intends to accomplish that and remain financially viable.
New fuel to avoid energy doomsday
Rep. Judy Biggert, a Hinsdale Republican whose congressional district encompasses portions of DuPage and Will counties, got an amendment to legislation approved that would expand research into hydrogen as an energy source. It specifically seeks to expand hydrogen storage options, which Biggert is convinced holds promise after talking with scientists at Argonne National Laboratory near Lemont.
Ethanol producers and industry regulators say the growing pains are ending as the ethanol industry matures and new technology is allowing existing plants to reach peak production levels.
House passes resolution to increase nation's renewable fuel supply
This past week, the House of Representatives passed a resolution setting a goal of expanding the country's domestic renewable fuel production to 25 percent of its energy supply by 2005.But with global oil prices nearing $90 per barrel, a meat industry coalition is looking to get the government out of the renewable fuel industry.
State considers lifting ban to extract farm's uranium mother lode
As much as 110 million pounds of uranium ore could lie beneath these gentle hills where cattle now graze and tobacco once reigned. The value of this radioactive deposit, based on current market prices: about $10 billion.
Uranium worth a fight, Niger nomads say
In the arid moonscape of northern Niger, the light-skinned Tuareg nomads have launched a fresh rebellion....Last year, Niger mined 3,500 tons of uranium, making it one of the world's top producers of the nuclear fuel, and, with global demand and prices rising, the Tuareg find the proceeds worth fighting for.
Fusillades of claims and counter-claims are flying in Charlotte's debate over funding its transit system. "I'm swimming in numbers," as The Observer's Mary Schulken complained in a recent column.While "numbers games" are being used to sow confusion, establishing truth often depends on numerical data, such as this.
Insight's resale value a bad sign for hybrids?
The original hybrid gas-electric car, the Honda Insight, is about to have a senior moment that could show us what the future holds for the fleet of hybrids that followed the revolutionary little car onto the road.
Nitrogen: pricey way to keep tires pumped
The thinking is that nitrogen, which makes up 78 percent of the atmosphere (21 percent is oxygen and 1 percent is other stuff), has larger molecules, which prevents it from seeping out of the tire as quickly as air and thereby maintains stable pressure.Tires filled with regular air tend to fluctuate in pressure level -- increasing during hot summer months and decreasing during the cold season.
Scientists sometimes refer to the effect a hotter world will have on this country’s fresh water as the other water problem, because global warming more commonly evokes the specter of rising oceans submerging our great coastal cities. By comparison, the steady decrease in mountain snowpack — the loss of the deep accumulation of high-altitude winter snow that melts each spring to provide the American West with most of its water — seems to be a more modest worry. But not all researchers agree with this ranking of dangers.
Fight Against Coal Plants Draws Diverse Partners
Environmental groups that have long opposed new power plants are being joined by ranchers, farmers, retired homeowners, ski resort operators and even religious groups.
New Coast Guard Task in Arctic’s Warming Seas
For most of human history, the Arctic Ocean has been an ice-locked frontier. But now, in one of the most concrete signs of the effect of a warming climate on government operations, the Coast Guard is planning its first operating base there as a way of dealing with the cruise ships and the tankers that are already beginning to ply Arctic waters.
Catalog Choice, which does not charge a fee, helps retailers “to maintain a ‘clean’ list so that they are not mailing to people who don’t want their catalogs,” said Kate Sinding, a senior lawyer for the Natural Resources Defense Council.
IF the government wants to reduce its dependency on imported oil and, in the words of the Department of Energy, “foster the domestic biomass industry,” it has only to stop by my backyard with a pickup. The place is an unlikely but active biomass production center — especially at this season with countless autumn leaves eddying in every nook and cranny — and I’ll happily donate my production to the cause.
Reyes found that the rise and fall of lead-exposure rates seemed to match the arc of violent crime, but with a 20-year lag — just long enough for children exposed to the highest levels of lead in 1973 to reach their most violence-prone years in the early ’90s, when crime rates hit their peak.
Business lobby groups are blowing their last vestige of credibility in their flat-earth rejection of the government's energy and climate change policies.
New Zealand: Govt energy strategy to change landscape
The Government's attempt to wean the country from fossil fuels, part of its strategy to cut greenhouse gasses, will change the landscape in more ways than just putting legions of wind turbines on the horizon.
Higher emissions from coal and gas power stations threaten pollution targets
POLLUTION FROM Scotland's major coal and gas-fired power stations shot up last year, threatening to wreck the Scottish government's plans to combat climate change.
THE ALL-TOO-THIN baby on the pediatric exam table does not know that oil prices recently topped $80 a barrel. With almost no fat on his malnourished body, he is unable to tolerate for even a brief period being undressed by his doctor.His mother wonders how she will keep the house warm, food cooked, and lights on through the coming winter for the boy and his sister, while making sure that they have enough to eat. She is not alone in her anxiety. The price of heating oil is projected to exceed $3 per gallon this winter, and electricity and natural gas costs remain high. Last week, heating oil prices in Massachusetts reached their highest levels ever at $2.72 per gallon, according to the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources. Between March and May, 1.2 million households had their electricity shut off due to last winter's overdue energy bills.
Pakistan: Petrol pumps, CNG stations suffer losses
The owners of petroleum pumps and Compressed Natural Gas CNG) filling stations suffered huge losses as the sale of various fuels came almost to a halt during the last three days in Sindh.Petroleum dealers and CNG retailers closed their pumps following the deteriorating law and order condition in the major cities of province following bombing incident in Karachi.
Oil prices have skyrocketed to reach $90 per barrel, raising concern that they could continue to climb to $100 in the near future. The situation is all the more gloomy with many experts foreseeing a potential second oil shock once the price goes beyond $95. Soaring oil prices have been causing anxiety among businesses and people, alike. For a nation that depends entirely on oil imports, high prices have a far-reaching impact upon the country's economy and the livelihood of ordinary citizens, as they will lead to a drastic rise in commodity prices.
A local investor is planning to set up a plant which will use foodstuff like maize, cassava and sugarcane to manufacture oil and gel for lighting and cooking respectively.
Energy agency helps to revive nuclear power
The U.S. Department of Energy is looking to nuclear programs at the University of Missouri-Columbia and elsewhere to develop the next generation of more efficient, safer and environmentally friendly nuclear technology.
State set to sue Bush administration for waiver to enforce emissions law
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected as early as Wednesday to make good on his promise to sue the Bush administration, accusing the federal Environmental Protection Agency of purposely stalling California's application for a waiver to enforce its greenhouse gas reduction law.
‘Oracle of climate science' James Hansen comes to University of Montana
Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, will give a seminar titled “What Determines Climate Sensitivity?” at 3:10 p.m. in Gallagher Business Building, Room 123.His 8 p.m. lecture - titled “The Threat to the Planet: How Can We Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change?” - will be at the University Center Ballroom.
Whistling in The Dark– The New ‘Relaxed Attitude’ on High Oil prices
By late 2007 oil prices had surely not heard the signal of “seasonal downturn in demand”. They therefore did not respond to the usual talk-down mantra of high stocks, falling demand, OPEC pumping almost all it can, not too much geopolitical stress (except for about 1.6 million dead in Iraq since 2003), and warm enough weather – at least in the northeast of the USA – to imagine that Winter will not come. This would allow a remake of the 2006 oil sell-off, culminating on January 18, 2007 with a low of about $49.50-per-barrel for WTI grade, February delivery. Such was the acclaim and applause this happy feat generated that for weeks finance blogs were stuffed with talk of “30-dollar oil” coming back almost anytime.
The Tar Sands and Canada's Food System
Tar sands opponents point out that burning natural gas, a relatively clean fuel, to extract oil will result in massive increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, some experts say the implications of using natural gas go far beyond global warming.North American agriculture is deeply dependent on natural gas. Nitrogen fertilizer is chemically produced using a process that -- currently -- cannot be conducted efficiently without large amounts of natural gas. This fertilizer, in turn, is an essential nutrient in North America's food production system. "In a fairly direct way," says Darrin Qualman, Director of Research at the National Farmers Union, "natural gas is a primary feedstock for our food supply."
It's time to heed admiral's 1957 fossil-fuel warning
A half-century ago, Rear Adm. Hyman Rickover, the father of the nuclear Navy, accepted an invitation to speak at the banquet of the Annual Scientific Assembly of the Minnesota State Medical Association in St. Paul. In that speech, before a gathering of physicians, Admiral Rickover raised the specter that easily accessible and economically reasonable supplies of fossil fuels would be in jeopardy - just about now.
‘Peak oil' Just how long will it last?
There is a huge debate going on between basically two schools of thought. One is the Cambridge Energy Research Association's thought, which is that we have plenty of oil in the world, and we are good at developing technology. In spite of the fact that energy information agencies are forecasting we will be using another 30 million plus barrels a day of oil in the world between now and 2030, and technology will find a way to do that. That's one school of thought.Another school of thought says we are at the maximum point of producability, and so it's decline from here on down. That's the “peak oil” theory.
7 oil workers kidnapped in Nigeria, official says
Gunmen in speedboats attacked an offshore oil field in the volatile Niger Delta, kidnapping three foreign workers and four Nigerians, Shell officials said Sunday.The men were taken after a three-hour gunfight at the EA field, operated by Royal Dutch Shell, said Olav Ljosne, a spokesman for Shell in Nigeria.
Iran says extra OPEC oil unlikely to curb prices
Oil prices are not rising because of a lack of crude in the market and so any increase in OPEC output is unlikely to help bring them down, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying on Sunday."In the current conditions and oil market uncertainties, it is unlikely there will be an increase in OPEC production or that it would have an impact on prices," Javad Yarjani, head of OPEC affairs at Iran's Oil Ministry, told the ministry's news Web site SHANA.
Nozari says 92 oil companies will be privatized
Iran's Acting Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari said 92 oil companies would be privatized in line with Article 44 of the Constitution."All refineries of the country along with state-run petrochemical complexes excluding the three main petrochemical companies are subject to 'Note A' of the article and 100 percent of their shares will be offered," reported PIN Quoting the caretaker as saying.
LNG plant should give Sound a wide berth
The dilemma that spins in your head is this: we need the energy.The country's not getting any smaller, but does the dang plant have to be in Long Island Sound, which god knows has seen its share of pollution and abuse already? Is their no totally unbiased expert somewhere who can give us the straight scoop on this project?
I believe that part of the populist support for the Superferry stems from the inherent understanding of the environmental gloom facing O‘ahu and the desire to have free access to the resources and space of the outer islands.But, solving that problem is the real issue, not getting the Superferry running. If there is any sustainable solution for Hawai‘i after the Peak Oil Wave passes over us, it will be founded on the outer islands which are not overdeveloped. There we can grow food and provide resources that will be needed throughout the state. To overrun these islands now with “easy access” and “economic growth” will doom all of Hawai‘i.
Evangelical Christians defend God's creation
Environmental activists are regularly castigated as both crypto-communists and godless heretics:Why care about the Earth when the droughts, floods, famine and pestilence brought by ecological collapse are signs of the apocalypse foretold in the Bible? Why care about global climate change when you and yours will be rescued in the rapture? (Moyers, 2005)
This has led to a growing awareness on the part of moderate evangelicals across the US that they have given away far too much of the moral high ground to their more extreme co-religionists, particularly in terms of standing up for God's creation.
Climate change blamed for fading foliage
Forested hillsides usually riotous with reds, oranges and yellows have shown their colors only grudgingly in recent years, with many trees going straight from the dull green of late summer to the rust-brown of late fall with barely a stop at a brighter hue."It's nothing like it used to be," said University of Vermont plant biologist Tom Vogelmann, a Vermont native.
He says autumn has become too warm to elicit New England's richest colors.
Climate deniers to send film to British schools
Secondary schools across Britain are to be sent copies of the controversial television film The Great Global Warming Swindle, as the polemical battle over climate change heats up in the wake of last week's Nobel Peace Prize award to former US vice president Al Gore and the UN's climate change panel.
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A new Energy and Environment Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
We have seen much attention paid lately to the potential for large sea level rises due to climate change, but global warming also has other effects on water systems - most significantly a potentially substantial reduction in the amount of fresh water available to sustain human populations.
In Australia, Tim Flannery pointed out some time ago that a 10% drop in rainfall resulted in a 70% drop in available water due to increased evaporation from warmer temperatures, which is why Australia is currently experiencing such severe water shortages. Other areas could be set to experience something similar, especially if the glaciers supplying major river systems in populous regions melt. In a world of falling water tables, and less energy available for pumping water from ever-increasing depths, this is a trend to watch, and not just for the purpose of making money from scarcity as investment newsletters would have you believe.
Also in this Energy & Environment Round-Up, we follow the on-going resource royalty debate in Alberta, the row over equalization payments and resource ownership in the Maritimes, and the opening of a token hydrogen refueling station in Ottawa. On the international stage, we look at China's tidal wave of growth and increasing energy demand, and the developing geopolitical tensions that are combining with rampant speculation to push the price of oil to record highs.
Finally, check out the October 2007 Special Tar Sands Issue of The Dominion.
The Future Is Drying Up
That picture reminds me that I got curious the other day about water levels at Lake Mead, and ran across this excellent page with a graph:
http://www.arachnoid.com/NaturalResources/index.html
The 'bath-tub ring' in the photo above is 100 feet high!
German team wins Solar decathlon 2007 on Washingtons National Mall.
"They were judged on whether they maintained a comfortable temperature, had adequate lighting, sufficient power for household appliances and home electronics, and hot water -- all produced using solar energy."
"The houses also had to power an electric vehicle."
I walked through the house yesterday. They did some interesting things, and not surprisingly the house had a definite "Euro" feel to it. My girlfriend thought it cold, plus the bed was buried in the floor, which to us seemed impractical.
The University of Maryland house won 2nd, and we found that to be much more comfortable feeling. Like you could just move in and feel at home.
For the purposes of the competition, the homes are limited to 800 square feet. I suppose that was to make it easier to transport the things to DC. Some people could live in that amount of space, others would feel the need for more. I guess it depends on how much stuff you have.
My sense is that the crowds were greater than they were 2 years ago. The waiting line for the German home was at least 30 minutes, similar wait for the Maryland house. There were some of the houses for which there were shorter lines, none had no lines.
Bear in mind that your "stuff" expands to fill the available space.
Hi ericy, thanks for your report (I am too far away, even from Darmstadt to be able to see the house myself).
To be honest: I liked the Maryland house better from the outside (from the pictures on the web site, of course). The winner from Darmstadt seemed a little like a rabbit cage to me, so I wondered why they were ranked highest from the view of architecture.
What a good idea.
Building houses and tearing them down a week later without anyone ever living in them. We'll save a hella lot of energy that way :)
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
We couldn't stand the wait for the German house last Sunday...at least 30 min, maybe more. The Maryland house was very comfortable, agreed, nice polish and attention to design. The kids there didn't seem as knowledgeable as the UC Boulder or MIT teams.
The whole thing was inspiring.
I saw the MIT house too - I guess because I went there. I have to admit that knowing the place, I wasn't expecting much from an aesthetic point of view. IIRC, they weren't there 2 years ago, so I suppose it isn't bad for a 1st effort.
It seems that a successful entry tends to have a good working relationship between engineering, architecture and interior design. Yeah, the house needs to be energy efficient and have the solar cells, and that part all needs to work. But given the 800 sq foot limitation, you cannot really have any wasted space either - you need a really good floor plan. And finally, the thing just needs to look comfortable.
ASPO Houston:
It was nice to meet all the folks from the oil drum and see and meet them as real people not just as anonymous contributors.
On Friday afternoon their was a roundtable by Henry Groppe, Charles T Maxwell, and Boone Pickens.
Mr. Groppe presented some remarks to the effect that KSA had made some wrong decisions due to the IEA stating that non-OPEC oil production in 07 would increase by some 1.7 MM brl’s per day. KSA then decided that OPEC’s production should be cut by this amount, and achieved a reduction of 1.5 MM brl’s per day. While in reality non-OPEC production never increased at all. He also stated that he was of the opinion that in the future KSA could achieve 12 to 15 MM brl’s per day and not the +20 that some project.
Mr. Maxwell presented some remarks to the effect that International oil CO’s had relied on the EIA and CERA price data back in 05 to be in the range of 35 to 40 Dollars in 09. The Oil CO’s were of the opinion that if they held back on their E&P budgets they could get cheaper rates in the future. They are now in the position where they will have to spend enormous sums to achieve their goals in E&P.
These are some of the causes of the current high prices.
Mr Pickens was of the opinion that Production would never exceed 85 MM brl’s per day, and we would see 100 dollar oil before we see 80. IMO it may be to his advantage make these kinds of projections.
This is of course my understanding of their comments and please correct me if I am in error.
Regarding Mr. Pickens and his prediction on oil prices, I realize he is investing in wind farms in Texas, but I don't think that presents a conflict of interest nor an advantage for him to make bullish predictions about oil. Now, if he were predicting lower oil prices and also investing in wind farms, then I would question his motives.
As it is, I don't think his predictions are going to actually affect the price of oil so I don't see what advantage he gains. I see him as a guy with the knowledge to make accurate predictions and the guts to put his money where his mouth is.
-Don
Guys like Pickens, Simmons, and Buffett all have enough money that I don't think they need to scam people to make more...
I follow what they all have to say and what they do with their money to give myself a hint as to what's to come.
They are all smart investors, humble and have been around for awhile...they don't need to impress anyone and are thinking beyond their bottom dollar IMHO.
Dragonfly41, I agree with your comment: 'guys like Pickens, Simmons, and Buffett all have enough money that I dont think they need to scam people to make more...'
I also follow what they do, but pay less attention to what they say.
I dont agree with 'your humble opinion.'
'These people'... Well, what do 'these people' do? They play the game of capitalisim and they are very good at it. They are perfectly suited to the game and they will continue to play it as long as they are successful, have sharp minds, see the trends and act on them, make more money and enlarge their egos while acting 'humble'...(sometimes). Money is the means by which they keep score.
One of my favorite lines is from the movie 'China Town'...Jack Nicholson, upon discovering that the wealthy of the LA area are busily cutting off water to farmers and forcing farms to sell at 'fire sale' prices, is stunned. Then he delivers the line (questioning why the wealthy would force poor farmers out of business to further enrich themselves)...'My God, how much better can they eat?'...Nicholsons character didnt understand that the wealthy were not concerned with eating better or having finer mansions or bigger autos...The wealthy were simply playing the game of capitalisim...And, the wealthy could care less who gets hurt, as long as they win (profit) in the game.
Some individuals, like Roberto Clemente, are perfectly suited to play baseball. Some individuals, like the trio mentioned above, are perfectly suited to play capitalisim.
A lot of us were puzzled by Mr. Groppe's and Mr Maxwell's comments regarding Saudi Arabia, especially Mr. Groppe since he showed that crude + condensate production had peaked.
So, of the four long time energy insiders, three of them--Pickens, Simmons & Groppe--all thought that at least crude + condensate production had peaked (Pickens was using Total Liquids).
Mr. Maxwell thought that we would see a brief pullback in oil prices, followed by another price increase in six to nine months.
My April, 2006 letter to two Texas newspapers regarding Mr. Pickens and Mr. Rainwater:
http://www.energybulletin.net/14606.html
My recurring question: If you believe Pickens, Rainwater, Simmons, et al, regarding Peak Oil, wouldn't you avoid buying the SUV to drive to and from the $500,000 mortgage?
If you believe ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Yergin, et al, regarding Peak Oil, wouldn't you be more likely to buy the SUV, thus driving up energy demand and prices?
So, who is royally trying to screw the American public?
"So, who is royally trying to screw the American public?"
Hmm. Classic case of a false set of choices, and also a misleading question. It may not be the case that anyone is trying to screw the American public but that there there are plenty which are succeeding simply through a combination of ignorance and greed, and that group includes the American public itself.
Hello WT,
Just out of curiosity: was any ASPO Conf. attendees doing my suggested Peakoil shoutout when their yeasty beverage of choice reached half-empty during the cocktail sessions or late-night yada,yada,yadas?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I thought the comment about the 1.7 MM bbl/day drop by Mr. Groppe was a bit surprising also. I think that Stuart Staniford's analysis presented at ASPO and on the Oil Drum definitely is a good technical basis to believe that it was not voluntary.
One unknown here is whether Mr. Groppe is well connected enough (he probably is) to get some direct information from the KSA royal family about what's happening there.
There was another part of his comments though that I have difficulty accepting, and that was the part about KSA being able to produce 12 to 15 MM bbl/day for a long period (and I thought I actually heard him say 20 MM bbl/day). I think it's possible that they may get to, say, 10 MM bbl/day with their current intense drilling program, but I cannot concieve of 12 to 15 MM bbl/day.
I must also say I was dumbfounded at Mr Groppe's confidence in saying Saudi could produce 12-14mbpd. Its behavior at current prices says otherwise. Also, from a moral POV, so many poor nations are greatly suffering at the current price level such that the Saudis are guilty of a great sin if they can actually produce enough and thus cause the price to fall.
Article from today's Observer which mentions the decline rates for existing fields, and overall production decline facing oil companies:
BP strives to drill itself out of a hole
I think this concept also applies to advanced recovery techniques on old, abandoned oil fields. Sure the little companies could come in and try to turn a buck on these, but it is more involved, complex than it used to be...more variables and factors that COULD go wrong.
It's going to require big loans for capital investment, and this may get harder and harder due to credit problems (i.e., banks willingness to give loans out to risky business speculations).
Geopolitics in the news:
MSNBC: Kurdish rebels kill 12 Turkish soldiers -Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan calls emergency meeting
Hi Leanan,
Thanks for posting this one:
Evangelical Christians defend God's creation
I haven't bothered to think about what could be done about the influence of the religious right in their seemingly lack of concern about Global warming but it looks like some have.
Countering the self absorption of the idea of 'rapture' with a statement that to injure the earth is to make a blasphemy of Gods creation could be an arrow in the green quiver that might go a long way if fired from a steeple or two.
But what do I know about it, I am the Sunday school miscreant who sat on the railway tracks under the sunny blue sky, waiting for the other kids to come out of that dark church basement, before returning home with them:)
The correct name is the disloyal Christian Right and care should be taken in writing and conversation to differentiate between this highly irresponsible, undesirable lot and plain ol' Christians. The vast majority of those who profess to follow the teachings of this Jesus fellow are not members of a doomsday cult ...
Sorry about that Sacred, I am a long way north of all that and am afraid from here the MSN ie. CNN clouds the view. Without trying to be argumentative, those who are not memebers of a doomsday cult where do they generally stand on GW, is it an issue or something outside their interests?
They've all got the bible, but there are many flavors of Christians. The keywords are premillenial and postmillenial - one group believes they need to build a Christian world and run it for a thousand years, then Jesus returns, while others believe he returns and then there is a thousand year reign. I'm not all that hip on the details, but Political Research Associates has covered it all in glorious detail:
http://publiceye.org
The vast majority of those who profess to follow the teachings of this Jesus fellow are not members of a doomsday cult ...
Huh?
May be you haven't read all the scriptures, isn't Apocalypse, End of Times, etc... "part of the package"?
Curiously it seems that all cults have some sort of doomsday predication.
Could it be a nice evolutionary feature which result (if not purpose) will be to get the nutcases out of the gene pool?
Thus, the true problem in any case is collateral damage.
His mother wonders how she will keep the house warm, food cooked, and lights on through the coming winter for the boy and his sister, while making sure that they have enough to eat.
And that shall be one of the things to go in the US of A - the idea that one has a 'right' to children you can not support.
What do you think, does one have a "right" to children the planet cannot support? I don't actually see how the rich have a moral right to have children in an overpopulated world, just because they've managed to hoard more resources than the poor.
I know this is theoretical, and you probably meant something rather more practical. It's just an interesting question from the point of view of moral philosophy.
What do you think, does one have a "right" to children the planet cannot support?
It matters not what I think is 'right' - or you.
Even if what 'we' thought was actually the best gosh darn thing, true, right, correct and what should be done, the reality is 'we':
Exist in a system where others have determined a set of rules backed by things like money, law, social norms. Thus - right now "life is considered important" (So long as you aren't poor, a different skin color, in a location that prevents the more powerful from taking whatever it is you have that the more powerful want, blah blah insert whatever injustice you see)
I don't actually see how the rich have a moral right to have children in an overpopulated world, just because they've managed to hoard more resources than the poor.
Unless you believe in Jay Hansens http://www.warsocialism.com/ conclusion below - the "social norms" (read law) for the US of A is the Government and its force exists for the benefit of private entities. If you want to think the US of A has laws based on 'morals' or 'fairness' - I'll ask for others to post links to places where one can get an education about the fairness and morality of Governments.
Once the poor surrender, admit defeat in the class war, lay down in front of the mansions of the wealthy, beg for mercy, etc, the wealthy will simply get on the next aircraft leaving this impoverished land and heading for new elysian fields 'over there'...
Perhaps you missed the news about the huge lines at pass port offices?
passport lines are not for people wanting to 'cut and run' - primarily its because you need passport to get into country when you return from Canada soon so there was a deluge of new passports.
I recently got a new passport - waited in line the day of my flight (per their recommendation) before I went to Ireland - took 8 hours and everyone was quite stressed.
About half were of non-US origin, by a cursory sample.
Their departing planes will carpet-bomb the poor on the way out though.
This is why the poor must not admit defeat in the class war. Most don't know they're in a class war and need to learn that first.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5420753830426590918
Educational material. At one point in this he states that the CFR thinks the population needs to be cut in half.
the CFR thinks the population needs to be cut in half.
Ok......so HOW is the question (and in what time frame?)
Jay's list is shut down for a while now so I didn't get a chance to ask him this. But where exactly are the rich and powerful going to cut and run to? On a vastly overpopulated planet with a collapsing global civilization there's no place to go. You would think they would realize that if we all go down they go down with us and give up some of their wealth to try to mitigate the catastrophe. Probably just wishful thinking but it's about all we can hope for at this point.
SolarDude, I dont know 'exactly where all the rich and famous are going to cut and run to...' But, the Bush clan has purchased a very large parcel of land in a South American locale...I believe the name of the country ends with a guay, like Paraguay, Uraguay or some such place...You know, one of the guays that took in the wealthy Nazis.
Since one of the goals of the 'rich and famous' will be to make a successful escape from the banana republic (formerly a rich and powerful nation) to an undisclosed location, I doubt that they will be splashing news of their new digs on the covers of the crap sold at grocery store check outs.
As far as the new pass port requirements are concerned...Well, if the guys that flew the 9-11 attacks had no problem aquiring pass ports and/or visas, who are the new pass port requirements targeting? The 'evangelical left behind' are hoping to be whisked to heaven while the 'other left behind' (those that will not be able to afford gas, food, housing and medical care) are not going to be able to afford pass ports and the cost of transportation to get them to the new elysian fields...Even if they could find a country that would accept them. How many countries in the world are sending out a call for ignorant, unskilled, foolish wannabe immigrants that stood by while their country was raped? Mexico is probably going to receive more benefit from the 'fence' that the US is building than will the US.
And my parting message to them would be: "Good riddance! Don't let the door bang your behind on the way out!"
Seeing the parasites at the top leave for another locale would be the best thing that ever happened to this country.
During the Great Depression the American rich seem to have split on the issue of wealth redistribution. There were factions and clans that took the positions we associate with libertarianism and fascism, i.e., do nothing or impose a brutal dictatorship to force the poor to make all the sacrifices to restart the economic machine. There were other factions that worked with FDR either out of patriotism or maybe fear of revolution, like financier Bernard Baruch or Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau.
What scares me is that I don't see anything as positive a split occurring today. The divisions among the rich in the '30s were complex - I can't stereotype them by region or even type of fortune. There were some famous generational splits. Henry "Protocols of Zion" Ford was so mistrusted by FDR that when the war began he simply overthrew him and put his grandson Henry II in charge. I suspect Henry's son Edsel, who had just died, was also a lot more liberal. JFK's father was pretty soft on Hitlerism, while JFK got a Pulitzer denouncing that attitude. George H. W. Bush's father was caught trading with the enemy, but Bush himself flew bravely in the war. It seems that the younger heirs of the robber barons were a lot more liberal and a lot more willing to accept interventionist government and redistribution rather than the Samson Option.
This time, I really think a lot of the "liberal" elites behind Hillary are too far gone in their cornucopianism to accept that American capitalism has misled the world into crisis. A lot of the younger fatcats are Rand-swilling techno-utopians, a road that has given us such inspiring models as Alan Greenspan.
There is no damn leadership here. The rich simply determined that they were going to drive America way to the Right and get back all the privileges that the Rockefellers and Duponts lost in the '30s. They don't have any other concept of America. You will not see any of these guys doing the hard work that Baruch and other public-spirited tycoons performed during the Depression and War. The best of the bunch will try to invent or market a new gadget that saves energy. The market is the only framework of human relations they understand.
Very interesting post, super390.
Thought provoking...
Worse in a lot of ways for the most part the political machine has gotten so warped in the US that we don't have any young leaders ready to boot the old guys out.
If you join one of the parties its impossible not to play the game and independents have little chance of success and I'm sure a new political party would find itself under intense scrutiny.
I don't mind the current corruption its the fact that they seem to have ironclad control of the ways the could be replaced thats troublesome.
This is part of why I think we are seeing so much emphasis in localized initiatives on the part of peak oil aware people. A lot of us have realized that at least for the next few years, we might as well write off the top of the political pecking order as worse than useless. Better to build up from the grass roots. At the best, that might build a better base for a truly effective and right-thinking future leader to build upon. At the least, maybe we can make ourselves and some of our communities less vulnerable to the consequences of malign, dysfunctional, and incompetent national leadership.
If THAT is what you are counting upon, then you are hopeless, because the rich are indeed unable to feel those emotions. Responsibility, empathy, and sympathy are not the path to riches.
No, instead of looking to the rich and powerful to save us from our problems, it is best to assume that they ARE a part of the problem.
Violence against them is not the answer, nor is pleading for mercy; rendering them as irrelevant as possible certainly is part of the answer.
People who are not rich and powerful are the ones that need the feelings of responsibility, empathy, and sympathy - for each other. People who are not rich and powerful need to start working together in a constructive and mutually helpful way to solve their own problems.
As long as we look to the rich and powerful to provide all of our needs and solve all of our problems, we give them power over us, and thus make them rich. The only way out of this is to deny them power over us and to cut off their cash flow. That means that individuals are going to have to live as simply, frugally, and self-sufficiently as they can. They are also going to have to reach out to their neighbors and build localized cooperative alternatives to the corporate exploiters.
That time spent picketing and pleading could be put to more constructive use creating a community garden or organizing a food co-op or a ride-share system.
Americans in the 21st Century don't have to breed haphazardly, like animals. We should stop treating the people who do, and who can't afford their children, like victims of some kind of natural disaster. The libertarian philosopher Tibor Machan dared to challenge this liberal taboo in his essay, "Wanting But Reproducing." (Disclaimer: I don't agree with all libertarian arguments. But in this case, Machan said something quite sensible.)
"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on Stargate SG-1.
I think that's been done in a lot of places. For some reason Western tourists are not too fond of those places, what with children begging everywhere, getting their food from dumpsters and landfills and generally having a rather miserable existence. And yet, poor people have not stopped having children.
Not helping out the less fortunate is an idea that libertarians find appealing, but in practice it would be intolerable to civilized people. In Brazil rich people hire thugs to kill street children, because their sensibilities are offended by too much visible poverty. That's one way to do it, but I for one find this practice abhorrent.
We can suppress it through mechanisms of social disapproval. Drunk driving, open expressions of racism and fighting duels have all declined (except among lower class males) because of social and legal sanctions against people caught in this behavior. Ironically, the christian right helped to destigmatize having unaffordable kids through their anti-abortion obsession. They decided that what we used to call "bastardy" looks preferable to letting unmarried women terminate their pregnancies.
"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on Stargate SG-1.
I think one reason the church was so against bastardy was that they used to be the ones who had to support unwanted children. They ran the orphanages, and supported the indigent. There are stories about unwed or widowed pregnant women being driven over the border to the next parish, so someone else would have to support them.
Churches are once again taking over social services. A lot of my friends who aren't even religious ended up going to a church for food and help with housing, jobs, daycare, etc. Churches are doing a lot of the things government used to do.
I wonder if they'll change their stance once it's clear we're at the Malthusian limit. I firmly believe that society shapes religion, rather than the other way around. A few centuries ago, sodomy was seen as more acceptable than fornication, because there was no danger of bastards with sodomy. Now it's the opposite. The religion is the same; it's the economy that has changed.
I wonder if they'll change their stance once it's clear we're at the Malthusian limit.
http://www.historyforkids.org/learn/people/infanticide.htm
Personally, I think the fact that a child's mother is always known, while the father is never certain, played a much larger role in 'bastardy' than who ended up having to deal with the children.
And since men were not going to stop having sex, it was much easier to blame women for having the burden of childbearing, as punishment for Eve's actions.
Patriarchy runs very, very deep - as for infanticide, look at what infants get killed. Though again, arguably, there is a certain basis in reality to killing females - by preventing future child births, the population is more efficiently reduced over generations. And having the excess males die in violent conflict just might be enhanced by having a reduced number of females available. (Which leads to the disputed theory that China will choose violent conflict as a way to handle an 'excess' male population exceeding 40 million males - roughly the number of females missing due to such technology as ultrasound.)
Of course, a sane society would prize birth control for women as being highly desirable, and vastly preferable to other alternatives, but the U.S. seems far removed from such sanity.
But that doesn't explain why the church's position on bastardy has changed so much.
Yes. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that patriarchy has probably out-competed other models, rather than being a natural human attitude. Precisely become control of women is control of fertility, and believing that males are superior makes female infanticide easier.
the church's position on bastardy has changed so much
But, but the Word of God is in-falable and therefore any position could not have changed!
I learn something on this site everyday...
Well, Nate...
Hate to say this, but...
(light blue touch paper and stand back)
Here is something else new for you:
Heterosexual anal sex was and still is the priniciple method of birth control in repressive regimes throughout history.
If the 'man in charge' has a beard, or a bible, or a koran or a uniform, it usually means a hard time for women...
Leanan, 'Churches are once again taking over social services.' Yes, they are, and it is all part of the Republican vision of 'a new gilded age,' where a few people own almost everything and control what they do not own.
The dearest vision of these scoundrals is to wipe out all social programs and declare government closed for business...except, of course, for their corporate welfare pals.
What makes you think once the churches have captured the poor, they won't train and arm 'em and turn 'em loose on the civilized world?
Jesus Camp, anyone?
Children's Crusade
RobertInTucson
I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.
Everyone was all enthusiastic about cutting off welfare payments to women who have too many kids. Because "we shouldn't pay people to have kids they can't support." But isn't offering tax deductions for children the same thing, only for the middle class instead of the poor? It's families that use government services the most. They should pay the most. Instead, people without children, or with fewer children, subsidize those with more.
Not that I expect this to change any time soon. Not having kids is seen as a problem, not the solution. Look at how other countries are trying to encourage people to have large families. Australia wants everyone to have at least three kids. At least one politician in Japan wants to cut off social security benefits for women who don't have at least one child in their lifetime. Israel worries about being outnumbered by Arabs, and wants Jewish women to have lots of children. Many European countries are offering cash and other benefits to people who have kids.
And then there's my acquaintance in Mexico with two daughters - what luck - who's going to keep at it until he has two sons. You need at least one son and in his social position having a spare is de rigeur. This is a common cultural phenomenon which will take longer than the half life of the remaining oil supply to change.
We tend to believe that which the society around us believes because that is the way it is. We don't need a reason for our reasons, just a majority.
Enjoyed the Toledo Blade article on Admiral Rickover; thx.
Not having kids is seen as a problem, not the solution.
When one has an economic based on growth, having more humans means one of the 'growth items' is, well, growing.
As well as your point about Israel's worries, cheap labour and larger market equates to a business need for larger population, therefore large families are tended to be promoted by government.
Having a large family is in opposition to the realization by the individual that the best chance, for an urban family's survival, is to have fewer better cared for children.
So far Trump trumps in this dichotomy. (but by fathering only three children to add to the labour/consumer force I do not think he is a leading example of good business practices, in this area at any rate ... I would not presume to comment on his other business practices:)
This is an interesting point - in Germany, people of working age are considered to be those that pay taxes, and those who are not working age cannot not possibly draw more down in tax revenue than is created by those of working age.
Which is why the emphasis on ensuring enough working age people to pay taxes.
Though still essentially Ponzi scheme thinking, it is also technically correct - after all, the children we educate today will be productive for decades. Or at least that is true in Germany, where a number of young people's education is based on concrete activities. Germany still manufactures things, both high tech and very much less so - for example, some roof frames are still built using a pegged method - no tool more advanced than axes, saws, etc. required for a roof that will last decades. And forest generally surround towns, there is generally a local sawmill, etc. Long term thinking in action, for centuries at this point.
Long term planning is hard, and often requires both a broad perspective, and discipline.
Though there is much about the details in Germany of how the state views child rearing which remain foreign to me, the fundamental idea that society is composed of all its members, from the youngest to the oldest, is somehow reassuring. Though community is not the correct word for it, this sense of the long term is sorely lacking in America, as is the simple awareness of continuity in human affairs - we all were born, we will all die, and yes, the details in between are not merely chance.
At least in some cultures, children are seen as an investment, and not a cost. It is striking to what extent Americans see other people's children as a burden - this has never made much sense to me, because the 'cost' in a country like Germany or Japan is multiples higher than in the U.S. Of course, picking two of the world's leading industrial economies might not just be a coincidence - and in both cases, their industrial economies were destroyed as a result of attempting to grab resources without regard to law or long term costs. And those economies were rebuilt using the only investment that actually matters - themselves.
America is going to fracture in a welter of contradictions and fantasy.
Leanan - discouraging childbirth among the poor while subsidizing it among the middle-class and rich is just another example of the Social Darwinism the US political system is based on.
I'd almost be in favor of it except ...... most mothers on Welfare don't have more kids while on Welfare, are only on Welfare for a few years, and end up on Welfare due to the high stress of trying to survive as a poor person in the US sans things mothers in the First World take for granted such as prenatal and post-natal care, universal healthcare, a basic standard of home heating and food, etc.
I was one of those kids - imagine next to no body fat and shivering, in Hawaii's warm climate. Imagine needing glasses from about the age of 8 or so, and not getting them until I was 18. If I were in Sweden, hell if I were in Bulgaria, the basic care would have been better.
Sure, you Social Darwinists out there, enact a law; sterilize Welfare mothers. You won't decrease the number of "Welfare kids" by much because Welfare moms tend to be done with their childbearing. Just as in the Great Depression, people don't have more kids when times are really hard. People have kids when they have hope and think things will be OK. They never see it coming, finding themselves on Welfare years later.
And none of this seems to have any effect as birthrates in all these places keep dropping. In fact birthrates everywhere are dropping.
Everywhere? I'd like to think so. Certainly is the case in many/most developed countries, but everywhere?
Reducing birthrates seems to me to be one of the best things we can do for the planet.
Yes, they are dropping...but the reasons they are dropping are likely to unwind in the post-carbon age.
If you're still reading this...
Birthrates are not dropping "everywhere". I did a bit of checking.
Birthrates are rising in many, mostly African countries, but a few other places as well.
World wide, birth rates are dropping a bit.
Birth rates seem to be falling due to:
1) The transition from rural to urban lifestyle,
2) The education of women,
3) The increased political power of women,
4) The increased availability of birth control methods.
Now, if you're vision of the post-carbon age is a return to caves and men whacking women over the head with clubs, dragging them off to breed, then that's your vision.
Certainly not mine.
Its very simple..those who have more children receive more welfare benefits.
A single mother has a huge number to chose from.
So the idea is ..get married(really not a prerequisite), have a child,get divorced but let the father stay in the house, apply for many of the available benefit packages.
Have more children,,however they wish. Apply again and then of course if your child does bad in school..well then apply for disability and sign up as the 'care' giver and quit your day job , if you ever had one and then you get paid for being the 'care giver' as well as the childs.....so on and so forth.
I know many who do exactly this. Not only that they get a Medicaid card that takes of all the medical bills,,as opposed to my poor one which costs me around $500/month.
So the streets really are 'paved with gold' here.
airdale-no I don't listen to the fat guy(limbaugh). No I am not of the disloyal christain zealots but I do believe that the apocalyse is approaching..since thats one of the main topics here on TOD..naturally...and must we speak of "The Tribulation"? No, for we will have some type of it fer sure.
PS. My son the accountant was once tasked with auditing all the welfare benefits for mothers with child..he threw his hands up in the end. My daughter is a master at finding these plans and applying for them. She knew of them before it even hit the local offices. So I have no references..just personal experience..and seeing who uses those funny debit cards in the grocery store and wondering how their hubby can be on disability and yet building(by himself) his own house!
And hauling hay and whatever else he wants to do. I seen him throw some of my 55 lb square bales to the top of the pickup load, when he got that child's pony which he kept in his garage and had the most severe case of laminitis I had seen in quiet a while. He asked me to shoe it and I laughed in his face.
How right you are Airdale. I got one of those familys living right down the road from me. I'm retired and still pay taxes (fed. income) while he gets a discount on his electric bill and the state pays his propane bill. not to mention the rest of the benefits.
"you can cure ignorance, but you can educate stupitidy"
the old hermit
You come across as quite a bitter and unhappy person airdale, I have to say.
Cargill,
Bitter and unhappy? Then you don't read any of my posts.
I am completely happy because for once in my life(still married for 46 yrs) I am totally in charge of my life and lifestyle and no longer supporting anyone.
But I am doing it on fixed income..my companies pension and SS. Thats not a lot...at one time it was worth more but inflation is ripping hell out of it.
But I am on my own land that I own free and clear and have almost no loans,,just one. And a smallish amount on one credit card.
I get by ok then..but it angers me to see those who contributed zero to the system then bleed the system because they can..just because they can get by with it.
I have started a new garden, froze a lot of corn, saved a lot of open pollen on the ear, have many lbs of purple hulled peas from the garden..lots more ....
I ride my Harley bike and get 50 mpg and have a Jeep for the farm and outback.
My daughter happens to be a leech of society and that saddens me no end...but I was not given allowance to help raise her...it was my wife who made her what she is..and now she is a avid defiant feminist and has been for many years. She makes me her enemy.
Yet I let all that go under the bridge. I have a big circle of kinfolk...........well..yada yada yada.....like I said...you don't read my posts so I am just going to call you totally uninformed and a one-line hipshooter.
airdale-doing it his way,,the best way
I live where I was born and raised,I look forward to each day. No traffic,no traffic lights,know everybody,deer are all over the place , I eat local caught fish one a week and bbq a lot of the other. No TV either so call me sadistic then!!! I probably read more in a year than you might in 10 years. Check my bio...before you judge me
Luckily there's no reason to freeze even if it's cold. One simply needs to dress for the occation.
When I was an infant my mother would let me take my daily naps outside the house in any temperature: the trick is to apply a piece of ancient technology known as the blanket. The blanket is simply wrapped around and/or laid on top of the child's body, thereby retaining the heat. A suit of woolen babyclothes, and a woolen cap for the baby's head is also required. If the temperature is especially low one can add more layers of blanket and other pieces of clothing, again preferably made out of wool.
My point is that it's probably a cultural thing if people freeze, mainly they don't know how to dress properly for the climate they find themselves in, or they don't think of simple things like closing the door to rooms that are not in use. A bedroom for instance doesn't need heating if you sleep under a thick blanket. The house they live in may also not be adapted to local conditions, the style may have been copied from somewhere completely different without a thought towards how easy it would be to keep comfortably warm/cool.
Growing up I remember we only heated the kitchen and livingroom as well as the bathroom during the winter, it just wasn't possible to heat the whole house with a woodstove so we chose to have a couple of warm rooms and mostly only spent time in the bedrooms while sleeping. A kind of triage if you will. Naturally the whole family clustered in the warm rooms, if you wanted to spend time in other parts of the house you needed atleast a woolen sweater and socks. After especially cold nights the cat's waterbowl would have a thin layer of ice on top in the morning :)
Waking up in the morning I would spend a few minutes mentally preparing before jumping out of bed, grabbing my clothes, and rushing downstairs to dress in the warm comfortable bathroom. That is if none of my siblings got there first, in wich case I would dress in the hallway. My mother got up first and lighting the stove would have been the first thing she did, but since both my parents were working, and the only electrical heat was in the bathroom, the house would be pretty chilly when I got back from school in the afternoon. After relighting the fire it soon became comfortable again.
I have been reading various things about the times before central heating. People had different ways of coping and staying warm in the winter. For example, canopy beds were originally designed to help retain heat. And for that matter the "night-cap" was an item of clothing - a cap you wear at night to minimize heat loss through the skull.
People had different ways of coping and staying warm in the winter.
The modern sleeping bag tech is great. Plenty of web sites dedicated to 'camping in the snow' - look to them for great hints.
It is an amazing extravagance to heat 2,000 square feet when you really only need about 12 square feet to be nice and warm. The upstairs here in consistently in the low sixties except for this room, which grows comfortably warm with just me and my little Mac Mini heating it as long as I keep the door closed.
One reason why older homes tended to be 2-story was that heat rises. One would load up the woodstove with logs and turn down the damper before going to bed. By morning you would be down to just the last of the coals, and the downstairs would be pretty chilly, but all that heat would have made its way upstairs to the bedrooms overnight.
Ranch houses were originally designed for the hot and arid southwest, where the problem was cooling, not heating. Ripping off the design and building it everywhere in the country, no matter how frigid, is just one more incredibly stupid idea for which we will be paying a frightful price.
By the way, that 2-story 2000 sf farmhouse might have housed anywhere from six to twelve people. Now, a 2000 sf house will rarely house more than three people, often only two or even one.
I've always dressed appropriately (i.e., warmly) in the winter and kept the interior temperature low. The thing that always drives me crazy is dressing appropriately for the season and then walking into a building where they have the heat turned up to 74 or something (with everyone walking around in T-shirts). The one good thing about peak oil is that I hope while I am still alive to see then end of that particular behavior.
On yesterdays DrumBeat(Oct 20) I posted a reply to Tontoneila's valuable comment on the usage and lack of Nitrogen.
Here is the permalink:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3110#comment-252387
Here is a sample of my reply for those interested:
"Perennial and forage legumes, such as alfalfa,
sweetclover, true clovers and vetches, may fix
250-500 lbs of nitrogen per acre."
Text below was not part of the 20th DB.
It is my further views on the subject.
My experience has been with hairy vetch and its very valuable role as a nitrogen fixer and as a conservation plant. My goal is to have a double sized garden and plant vetch on 1/2..then switching the growing half each year after the winter diedown and return of the N to the soil.
There is therefore little need to buy commercial N..the old timers knew this and seeded my land with hairy vetch on their tobacco plots..and later it was spread all over the farm..clear cutting of hay resulted in most of it being eliminated..so I will save all the seed and restart its growth as before..in lieu of grass and and other covers , such as orchard grass that I once grew for a hay crop.
airdale-we just need to return to the methods that worked in the past instead of gnawing our nails and worrying.We need to be wiser about this and stop looking for some techno fix that might or might not be workable.All this was known some time back and practiced but someone upset the hell out of farming..Butz perhaps.
PS. Note that crown vetch was once sowed by the highway depts along roadsides...apparently this was eschewed in favor of high maintenance 'lawns'. You can see find a dab or two of it in some places. BTW cattle love sercia lespedeza which I believe to be a legume and was also once planted profusely along roadways but I don't see much anymore.
I used to bale it where I found it along with other lespedeza varieties that come up volunteer but now are receding with more intensive grain crops and herbicides.
I had a similar plan in mind and wanted to plant hairy vetch on our hill - I bought crown vetch seed by mistake - is there a big difference? (I am learning about these things so forgive if this is ignorant question)
Go visit the thread from yesterday - you'll find links to better sources than a guy who thinks Hydrinos are gonna save us.
eric, eric, eric....what is one to do with you?:)
The normal response is to thank me for my efforts.
So you are welcome.
Well golly Eric Blair, I don't know about this, but I'll give it a try:
"Thank you eric bleeewwweeettt!!! Ooh that smarts!!!"
They really do that? I knew there was some kinky stuff happening on this channel.
there is a broad spectrum of 'saving'. Some (like me) just want to enjoy life irrespective of which path is heading their way. I used to trade stocks and competed on that level - I now know that the bar gets higher every year so prefer to learn about and 'compete' by hairy vetch and similar pursuits. I do not claim that any gardening technique or pastime will 'save' anyone - but some of these things are sustainable, educational and pleasurable to pursue.
Nate,
Forget Eric the Blare..go to the website I mentioned..its has excellent writeups..
Here is a finer resolution on the pdf.
cahe.nmsu.edu/pubs/ a/a-129.pdf
Crown vetch has small flowerets at its tops and appears to be more leafy.Hairy is just like the name implies..its sorta like a bigger version of Hummingbird vine..small leafs that move all over the place..and cover the bare ground very well..then in the fall breaks down to the surface and forms a very nice surface..more like you had thrown hay or straw over the ground..its not tough and the vines are small and can be easily disked up to smaller portions..how a tiller would work on it I am not sure.
But if you were organic then one could just pull away the row areas..also its easy to discourage the growth by just pulling up the new growth..yet the seeds if allowed to fall will ensure that you will always have future growth..where it is mowed it tends to disappear...so not that invasive.
We need a real solution to one of the N,P, K triumverate and this is a good solution. It takes N from the air,,fixes it and retains it in it plant and therefore is possible to be moved some distance..one could envision baling it up before the growth dies in the fall,,then bartering it for fertlizer..in the square bale that is.
IMO its an all around good solution to home gardening...
The seeds are not too difficult to glean by hand..or just pull the plant and take it to your garden , throw on the soil and let nature take its course.
airdale
I bought crown vetch seed by mistake - is there a big difference?
No, all vetches are legumes and therefore fix nitrogen in the soil. They make excellent winter cover crops. Hairy vetch is more winter hardy than crown vetch I believe so would be a better choice for a colder climate.
Actually you are quite wrong about both issues.
Legumes vary considerably in the amount of N they fix.I you have even read the article you might have found that out.
Right now its the 21 st of October and we haven't as yet had a killing frost yet I just today finished perusing many areas of my farm and didn't find a single hairy vetch plant..they have disappeared already. They are easy to spot alsol
As to more winter hardy than hairy? Me thinks not. Yet I could be a tad wrong on that since I don't have the time to prove your contention wrong. I just know that all the hairy vetch is no longer visible as green foliage. Heck the trees haven't even turned here.
They do NOT make winter cover crops. They do if they are already there and died back with the fall weather but unless you show me valid proof I am not buying your statements.
Do you grow it?Does it grow wild on your place? Do you have a place/farm? What area of the country? Is it still viable right now on your place?
I don't know its range but I will check it out now and will offer an apology if I am wrong and expect you to if I am right and your wrong...or just forget it.
I am not saying that hairy vetch produces 250 lbs of N per acre..some nitrogen fixing plants do..according to the article I linked to.
However all that being said...my significant point was the usage of n fixing plants to offset all the needs for commercial fertilizer...get it?
airdale
PS. Here is a direct cut and paste from the pdf:
"Some legumes are better at fixing nitrogen than
others. Common beans are poor fixers (less than 50
lbs per acre) and fix less than their nitrogen needs.
Maximum economic yield for beans in New
Mexico requires an additional 30-50 lbs of fertilizer
nitrogen per acre. However, if beans are not nodu-
lated, yields often remain low, regardless of the
amount of nitrogen applied. Nodules apparently
help the plant use fertilizer nitrogen efficiently.
Other grain legumes, such as peanuts, cow-
peas, soybeans and faba, beans are good nitrogen
fixers and will fix all of their nitrogen needs other
than that absorbed from the soil. These legumes
may fix up to 250 lbs of nitrogen per acre and are
not usually fertilized."
Minnesota DNR considers crown vetch to be a "serious invader of native prairie and sand dunes" and they offer measures of control. My guess is that it must be pretty hardy to withstand these winters.
I have not seen it invade but I have only observed it on interstate highways where it was very good at holding slopes.
I have never seen it used in farming.
Serica Lepsedeza was once favored for roadway planting as well but don't see that either however it makes a good grazing plant but fixes very little N.
Johnson Grass holds the championship cup IMO for invasive.That an Canadian 'nodding thistle' are the two and only two(that I know of) actually labeled as 'noxious' by the state of Ky.
Johnson Grass can crowd out other grass in very short order..its poison to cattle after a frost..its tough to kill out. Some fools think to feed it to cattle as hay but they are only spreading the seeds.
Hogs are the best killer of Johnson Grass as are mules in a pasture. Cattle will turn their noses up at it once it starts 'heading out'. I do believe that a cow can die eating johnson grass as hay..due to lack of food value that they eat so much...I have seen cow remains in the woods back in Missouri and their stomachs were full of some type of grass..good orchard grass and clover like I baled can test out at 12% protein, if cut and baled right.
My guess is that it must be pretty hardy to withstand these winters
Only the seeds have to be.
I've created several small 'yards' in peat soil with peas and beans growing along the chicken wire fence. The middle of each yard is empty except for a compost layer. On local Show Day October 27 (at Lat 43 south) we plant corn. That's all the nitrogen the corn will get ie compost and close proximity to legumes. Works for me but it obviously won't feed billions.
Works for me but it obviously won't feed billions.
The nitrogen part of the Green Revolution ending meets Farmers who are paid low prices, providing veggies to feed to meat animals, soils being depleted, and cropland being used to grow fuels.
Oh and lets not forget the nature of farm labor - long hours and dangerous machinery.
Yea.....how does this end well again?
Another 'Biketoberfest' is winding down in the Central Florida area. Biketoberfest is a gathering of a few hundred thousand bikers that, for the large part, trailer their motorcycles to this area and then ride them from bar to bar and to special events, mostly large outdoor concerts, in order to see and be seen. This event, and others like it, are a huge waste of fuel, but no more so than race events, innumerable conventions, etc.
This year I noticed a smaller crowd of bikers and purchases were down over last year...and last year was not all that great. NASCARs latest financial statement and earnings report indicated that the company was way down year over year, quarter over quarter, any way you want to slice it. Twenty years ago 6-8 NASCAR fans would chip in, buy an old school bus, do a minimal fix up to give it the bare necessities, and drive it to a few races per year. They purchased cheap infield tickets and watched the race from lawn chairs atop their converted school bus. Now the infield tickets are not cheap, I see very expensive motor homes...not converted school buses, and the 'fans' pay huge fuel bills to get those motor home from home to track.
I believe that certain segments of the US economy are definitely seeing demand destruction of FF.
I think so also River. I know people that did not take their boats to the lake this summer for fishing because of high fuel costs. One has been trying to sell his boat for a bit over a year. No one has even called on it.
I can't find it now - but memory says that President Carter sought a ban on recreational boating and that proposal got the (still standing) record for hate mail to The White House.
Talk about an unsustainable city, Central Florida i.e. Orlando is unsustainable now never mind in 2015.
The roads are overcrowded, 50 and 441 are always busy and I 4 is overwhelmed and underfunded. Although of help, the toll roads i.e. East West expressway and the ironically named greenway can be backed up as well, there are a lot of new toll rod projects that are going in they are not so much relieving the congestion as promoting sprawl.
The Orlando Lynx public transportation is a joke, it is a bus based system using the hub and spoke method, so to get any where you have to plan a long trip, first ride to the down town station to transfer to another bus, there are whole neighborhoods with no service, and if there is a close by bus many times it entails crossing a busy highway, usually with out a sidewalk, to get to even if there is a cross walk usually the cars making right turns on red will come at you with no regard for a pedestrian, it is actually safer to cross in the middle of the street away from the cross walk so you can see what is coming at you and there is virtually no weekend service, this in a city with a service industry based work force. And many routes run on an hourly schedule, which is a real pain when you need to transfer. Also there is a looming water shortage some wells in Tampa are already infused with salt water so they have to look eastward and they keep on building, they even allow building in the green swamp which is the main recharge for the central Florida aquifer.
Traveling by foot or bike is dangerous there are few sidewalks or bike paths, and where the sidewalks exist half the time they stop at a gully or retaining pond. Also as a result of the lack of biker safety on the roads the sidewalks have become de-facto bike paths and pedestrians are, when on them, are in danger of being run over by a bicyclist. In the case of official bike paths they are nothing more than lines in the streets, they either end randomly or at a busy intersection when there is a bike drivers are so unused to them they either drive to close to the bike or they cross to the other lane which is quite dangerous when that is an oncoming traffic lane. To walk across all but the quietest cul de sac is a dangerous activity. Parking lots are no safer.
The economy is still heavily dependent upon tourism. If the theme parks start to suffer because of PO the whole area will go into a recession or worse.
Also without ac the place would be unlivable in the summer, the housing stock is almost all less than 25 years old and was designed for central air, lose you ac and the house will take a couple of days to be livable even at night. As the area is flat the sewage is not moved anywhere by gravity it has to be pumped around, without power the system would quickly back up and for those with septic without pumps working their yards would become bubbling open sewers. This would be in addition to being quite nauseating a health crises. A few brown outs (in more ways than one) and there will be a flood away from the place.
Aside from the enormous LDS Church owned cattle ranch between Orlando and cocoa most of the local agriculture land is being used to grow pine trees, this keeps the agricultural assessment but does little to feed folks. Certainly not enough to feed the almost two million people in Lake Orange Seminole and Osceola counties.
Based upon any measure of sustainability Central Florida is unsustainable, I suspect that because of its runaway development, service industry economy, car dependent lifestyle, poor planing and inadequate infrastructure it will be one of the first casualties of PO in the US.
This is actually becoming a major issue out here in the Seattle area. There are a constant flow of news stories about copper thefts from construction sites that have escalated into thefts of wire from live circuits on highway lighting and digital displays.
A good example is a couple weeks ago when we were getting the first decent snow conditions of the season up over Snoqualmie Pass (where I-90 crosses the Cascade range) at least one of the digital message boards alerting drivers failed to activate. It turned out that the state had to go replace all of the wire leading from the control box to the sign.
Daniel
Aerospace Engineer
Everett, Washington - Cascadia
I didn't see any cities on that list I want to save.
RobertInTucson
I haven't escaped from reality. I have a daypass.
It appears the Northern Hemisphere sea ice anomaly, currently about 2.75 million sq km, is within a week or so of increasing to a quantity larger than this year's minimum in sea ice, 2.92 million sq miles, on Sept 16 (ref).
If there are milestones on the path to arctic melting, this should certainly be one.
This graph ist really startling. Is there any similar graph available which shows the ice development sourounding Antarctica?
Yes, at the bottom of the webpage I refered to as (ref): http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ .
For the Southern Hemisphere sea ice anomaly, not clear there is a strong statistically significant deviation yet:
Leanan's link above, "Insight's resale value a bad sign for hybrids?"
As someone who's been looking at Insights lately, I'll share my insights on my Insight search. The article talks a lot about the coming issues hybrid-related (battery packs and such), but those are not the concerns I've had when looking at these cars. The most serious issue that sits in the back of my mind has been that these are low production, purpose built vehicles. I always forget just how rare they are (only 13,886 ever built) but I know they're pretty rare. As such, unlike a Civic which is basically ubiquitous, you'd have real trouble just rolling into a neighborhood parts store and asking for some wonky Insight part. This is compounded by the fact that it is no longer even produced...so the rare will become even more rare. Further, as with most rare things, price becomes an issue - parts and anything will simply cost more while being harder to find. Economically (exacerbated by the other issues) it's still hard to justify compared to an older, low mileage civic, despite the astronomical fuel mileage. So to buy it, really, would be more an "environmental statement" rather than a rational money-saving (even money-neutral) purchase and considering I can usually squeak out near 40mpg out of a normal pre-92 Civic (which are also dirt-simple to work on), the boost to 60mpg while losing serious cargo space is relatively paltry.
Substrate,
The thing that bothers me about this article is that it takes the circumstance of the Insight, a low volume, limited market vehicle and extrapolates it's resale value to all hybrids.
Clearly the Insight is not for everybody, it never had the market the Civic did/does and I think it is a little less than honest to expect the resale value of the one to be the same percentage of the initial price as the other. The hybrid car segment of the industry has been hit a number of times I think with this kind of slight.
My official disclaimer: I own an Insight. It works great for me, it gets me and my briefcase to work and back home every day warm and dry on very little gas (generally 60 mpg on my commute with the automatic transmission). That's all I need.
What I wanted when I bought it was the best car to weather the coming of peak oil. The price was well within my budget, and I got something other than an ordinary car. It's nice to get 600 miles on a tank of gas too!
When parts are no longer available I figure it is a great car for conversion to all electric.
Finally the real irony in seeing this article today is that just yesterday somebody came up to me in a parking lot and asked if I would be interested in selling my Insight.
Lol, I don't think so.
PS: have you tried going to Insightcentral.net?
"PS: have you tried going to Insightcentral.net?"
I've run across the site before, usually when I go on an aerodynamic learning binge I'll stumble on it. They used a lot of little tricks to make it slick. What on there do you want me to see?
I love the wheel pants off the Insight, it's a neat car - pretty much how most cars should be made, but they fouled up the cargo space with battery placement and it could really use a third seat. I drive a CRX now, and it's super rare that I need to take three other people, but two is common so I either have to take someone else's car, or offer up the cargo-flap-seat-looking-thing (no rear seat seatbelt laws in this state).
As for resale (and initial sale for that matter) it had some serious things going against it that would submarine any car, and like you say makes using it as a comparison for all hybrids pretty much stupid. #1 is that it only has two seats #1.5 it's not even a sports car. That alone is enough to kill the vast majority of car buyers enthusiasm. #2 is that the cargo space is severly limited. Those two things pretty much bombed the CRX too - but the CRX at least had the sports car thing going for it.
Anyway if you want to bash the article without even touching it's misleading nature:
100,000mi
Civic Si - (100,000mi/30mpg)*$2.25/gal=$7,500
Insight - (100,000mi/60mpg)*$2.25/gal=$3,750
A $3,750 difference! Now, for something touted for having the highest fuel economy of a production vehicle, that was a hell of an omission. Just for fun, roll that into the resale value and see what it looks like...
Civic Si - $5,614
Insight - $9,010
Obviously cooking the books, but it at least brings it back to equilibrium or better. However, it should be noted that the Si has decent cargo space and space for at least two adults in the back, so it's not the best comparison to be use anyway.
I wonder how much they could have shaved off the price if they'd've gone with a conventional steel body instead of the aluminum. It might have slaughtered the city FE, but not so much the highway FE. It would also have been cool for them to have had a non-hybrid diesel option.
Substrate, one can still visit the 'Ebay Motors' website, and others, and find used VW Diesel Jettas, Rabbits and pick ups for sale cheap. These vehicles will return close to 50 mpg and lots of parts for them are still readily available. With a proper rebuild and basic maintenance these vehicles will run for hundreds of thousands of miles...Far more miles than fuel for them will be available...imho.
Hello TODers,
The culture of yeast; the madness of crowds; the tragedy of the commons:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banks-saw-crisis-coming-were/story...
---------------------
Bankers saw crisis coming, but were powerless
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The world's biggest bankers said Sunday their greed made them powerless to prevent the train wreck in credit markets, even though they recognized that markets weren't pricing the risk of subprime default appropriately.
The banks knew the dangers of buying and selling securities that were untethered to reality, but had to keep buying and selling them because of the pressure to keep profits growing, the bankers said.
--------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
People seem to worry about Hawaii a lot regarding sustainability, I guess because well, it's an "island" (actually islands) and Easter Island is, and there's that TV show where people are trying not to get "kicked off the island" too.
But Oahu, the most crowded Hawaiian island by far, is the most sustainable place I have seen in my life.
I have not seen any place on the Mainland US personally that could even come close. Granted I have not traveled to a lot of mainland US places that are probably very sustainable, but nothing I have seen matches the sheer bounty in even relatively urban areas on the island of Oahu.
You can grow a lot of crops in a backyard there, there's no lack of water, lots of sea life and most areas have less people living in them than they had 100 years ago. I'd assume in a real economic crash a good number of people will leave for the Mainland since the belief is almost universal that it's some kind of Promised Land.
Promised Land, bah! There is almost no food-raising that I have seen on the Mainland, the fish are lousy, very very little in the way of wild areas a person can wander around in and most of those lousy so who'd want to wander in them anyway.
Now, there may be Mainland areas I have not seen that may be sustainable. The Pacific Northwest near the shore maybe, and the damp, verdent, Southeast. I'm willing to bet Louisiana and Florida come close to Hawaii for liveability, if you can deal with being cleaned out by a hurricane once in a while. I love crawdads!
Hawaii is also the cheapest place I have ever lived. When I made $5 an hour, I had no problem saving up $100 to $200 a month in the bank. That was in the mid 80s. Prices have not changed much, and now the min. wage is somewhere around $7. You don't need a car, you don't need tons of clothes or shoes, the most menial job will support a decent life, and many foodstuffs are free for the picking, catching, plant and harvest here and there, etc.
Just my observations.
Hello Fleam,
Full Disclosure: I have never been to Hawaii...
... but if it is good enough for Jay Hanson to live on Kona, then, IMO, it is good enough to start the sequential building of biosolar habitats with eventual enlargement to all the islands. I have posted much before on speculative strategies & tactics to minimize FF-MPP while ramping biosolar-MPP for optimal paradigm shift:
[A rough 'cut & paste' synopsis of my postings]
--------------------------------------
Secession tendencies [Cascadia, New Vermont Republic, etc] to jumpstart the sequential building and enlargement of biosolar habitats; Asimov's Foundation concepts of predictive collapse and directed decline for optimal paradigm transition; political geo-boundaries realistically re-defined by watershed demarcation; the benefits of the Earthmarine vs Merc Dynamic compared to widespread anarchy on the local, regional, and continental scale; biosolar mission-critical investing to foster transition change, both on a local scale and continental scale, to enhance sustainable biosolar infrastructure spiderwebs and reduce short-term discounting; real value dividends from biosolar investing vs worthless cash, the porridge principle of metered decline, 'The 3 Days of the Condor' scenario, thermodynamic-economics & territoriality, the remelding of the humanimal ecosystem into the natural ecosystem, SpiderWebRiding, strategic reserves of bicycles & wheelbarrows, plus much more in my speculations.
I make no claim to accurate prophecy--just speculation with ever-changing, fluid timeframes & concepts that are hopefully co-related and interlocking in cascading effects, and hopefully backstopped by a plethora of supporting weblinks, when I can find them on Google.
I post whenever a new brainstorm [brainfart?] occurs: so expect more 'wild & crazy' extrapolation. My hope is that my musings will trigger even better ideas in real geniuses that can really help the needed paradigm shift to 60-75% of us moving to relocalized permaculture with a minimal machete' moshpit.
I always encourage constructive TODer elaboration or refutation of my text efforts. Most of all, I hope to avoid that greatest of blogging sins: a boring post.
IMO, the needed creativity required for the challenges ahead should be tickling the synapses of all TODers. I would love to see more TODers posting wild & crazy concepts by going to the next level of imagination for applicable mitigation and amelioration to optimize our transition. Until then, I remain a fast-crash realist. My time is limited, as it is for everyone; the future will always belong to the young--they need to learn how to carry the ball for a new game.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Richard Doak, a columnist with the Des Moines Register, would seem to agree with some of Mr. Shaw's ideas regarding the future of various regions of the United States. He uncharismatically christens this region "the united Upper Midwest", and claims Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. It should be noted that if Missouri were conquered rather than ceded to the southeast this would be the western half of Petroleum Administration District for Defense #2, with the eastern half comprising what Bob has simply dubbed the Great Lakes.
You may not have noticed, but virtually everything that you bought in Hawaii was transported there by ship. I guess if you don't need fuel, raw materials, finished products, or foodstuffs, Oahu is truly sustainable. Of course if everyone went back to living on taro and fish and walking or sailing everywhere, the lack of imports might be overlooked.
Times have changed. Everything is expensive in Hawaii. Housing, food, fuel are all more expensive than the mainland. This site states that the cost of living in Hawaii is anywhere from 30-60% more expensive than the national average.
I'm not sure where you get this impression but it is completely false. This document shows that the population in 1900 was a little over 150,000. The population by 1990 had increased by almost a million more people. The most recent census places the population at over 1.2 million people.
I have lots of family on Kauai which makes it attractive to me for a place to move in the future. You are correct about the abundant food recources, but the lifestyle lived by most islanders today is heavily supported by fossil fuels and imports.
If what you had said was true (there were less people, cost of living was low, etc.) I would have moved there years ago! This past summer, my wife and I were there for vacation. We were trying to scope out homes that were for sale. I saw many listings for condos in the $125 - $250 thousand dollar range. I thought, "Hey we could afford something like that". I later learned that these prices were for 1/6 ownership.
Phreephallin -
Most things I bought there were brought in - they've been bringing things in since the late 1700s. There was a thriving downtown and bakery etc using all imported equipment in 1830. This was before "oil" meant anything other than whale oil. Yes I know what you mean, though. While I know how to make Hawaiian traditional fish hooks and nets etc., matting, cloth, traditional building methods., etc for that matter too, I fished with store-bought hooks using store-bought line. Food's about half and half, it's the only place I know if where I could go on a 100% local diet, including coffee! And ultimately I AM talking about everyone walking or sailing everywhere, yeah sure use the modern stuff while it's around but I sure don't believe in this cornucopian ethanol stuff, geothermal, etc.
Times have changed - yes they sure have. The minimum wage is now $7 instead of $3.35. Big whoop. Rents have not changed much at all, it's weird. I was back for a few months in 2003. I had a great apartment for $600 a month in Waikiki, and turned down rooms in the $225-$325 range because I'd bought this Volvo station wagon and the rooms were short on parking. Food, transpo, clothes, everything one cares to mention is cheaper than on the Mainland. The only Mainland place I know of that's as-cheap is the armpit of Colorado.
I know the total population has gone way up, but it's 99.9% detritovores living in the cities, US retirees, etc. You go hiking around out in the wilds and you'll find old walls and stuff, places where there's just no one for many square miles. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that with the sophisticated Asian gardening techniques known there now as well as traditional Hawaiian ones, Hawaii could support its present population. But I also feel a LOT of people will leave for the mainland when things get bad.
The lifestyle today is heavily subsidized..... yeah no kidding - - what's the average moke without his stacked-up 4X4? And beer? Do they even make Primo there any more? Sadly, while in the best area to live traditionally, they're in love with the Western machine-mediated life. Hell I was too, wanted a car and a house and all that BS. I could hardly wait to leave. It took me a long time to realize the American treadmill is not a nice place to live.
I'm not sure what you mean by 1/6 owership, do you mean you were looking at time shares? Normally real estate there is Leasehold, which means you own the land, or Fee Simple, which means you don't. In the case of Fee Simple, there's a land lease you have to know about. Buying there is a matter of doing the numbers and deciding if you're better off renting. You probably are better off renting, just as it is here on the Mainland. Buying a place should cost at most 2 years' income, and instead it's 6X or more. Buying farmland would be different - you can make it more productive, you can earn from it year after year, etc. Real Estate in the US has been in bubble mode and basically a scam since probably the late 1960s.
Fleam: Thanks for the info. I will be going south this winter to Costa Rica and Hawaii and everyone says that Oahu is so expensive. Like you say, you don't need a car in Waikiki and the rents look pretty reasonable on the internet. Costa Rica is almost free, but I haven't see any place as beautiful as Hawaii.
Just FYI...it's the opposite. Leasehold means you don't own the land. You lease it. Fee simple means you do own the land. Most places, this is the default, and they don't even bother to say so. In Hawaii, they will advertise if a property is fee simple.
Leases are typically for 100 years, but there may be only a few years left when you buy. When the lease is up, they may offer another lease. They may allow you to convert to fee simple (for a large payment, of course). Or they may kick you off. Sometimes you see people moving their entire houses, because they couldn't get the lease on the land renewed.
I can't believe I got leasehold and fee simple mixed up.
My older sister, the nasty one who went to Punahou school, owns er is owned by a place maybe 600 square feet, hermetically-sealed climated-controlled, in a tower on the 10th floor, that looks out over the newspaper building. She's paying $1500 a month mortgage but I think there are fees and things that bring it up closer to $2000. She could have rented a HOUSE in Manoa Valley for less for all these years, and her place will become unliveable when the electricity becomes too dear, making it worthless. Oh and she drives the most pimped-out black VW Passat (with wing on the back) on the island which costs her about $700 a month (at least!) because she's embarassed to ride DaBus.
I grew up on DaBus!
Get a decent scooter and you 0wn that island though. If you want to be eco-correct bike for in town and bus for rainy days and longer distances is a good way to go too.
I rode a scooter while I was working in Wakiki and it was wonderful. I think 50cc would be dangerously underpowered outside of Honolulu but a 125cc Vino would do everything needed. When spiraling gas prices punch out the four wheel vehicles that portion of living in Hawaii will do just fine.
Oh, and the people who are saying its cheap to live have dated information - all expensive, all the time, per the locals I talked to when I was there earlier this year.
From NY Times 5 -31- 1984
"The Supreme Court today upheld a major land reform program in Hawaii, ruling 8 to 0 that a state may use its power of eminent domain to break up large estates and transfer land ownership to the estates' tenants.
...
The state law had been challenged by the Bishop Estate, Hawaii's largest private landowner, a dominant force in the islands' economy and politics.
Tenants Rent the Land
The Hawaii Legislature passed the law to break up an unusual concentration of private property in relatively few hands. Seventy-two private landowners held 47 percent of all the land in Hawaii in the late 1960's, with the Federal and state governments owning another 49 percent.
Many of the estates are broken up into single-family lots and leased to families who have built homes and are now paying sharply rising rents for the land.
The ruling today will enable the state's housing authority, under certain circumstances, to acquire indiv
Under the Land Reform Act, tenants who own homes on leased single- family lots may ask the Hawaii Housing Authority to condemn their lot. After half the tenants within a development tract, or at least 25 tenants, have made similar requests, the state agency holds a public hearing to determine if acquiring the particular property will ''effectuate the public purposes'' of the act.
The acquisition process then begins, with the price determined by negotiation or a trial. Tenants, in turn, may borrow up to 90 percent of the purchase price from the state agency.
The Bishop Estate is a charitable trust whose holdings include the land once owned by Hawaii's royal family. The estate owns 9 percent of Hawaii's land, including 22 percent of all the privately owned land on Oahu, Hawaii's third largest island and seat of Honolulu, the state capital.
The estate, which is administered by five trustees, brought its lawsuit in 1979 after the state began the process of acquiring some of the estate's land. The Federal District Court in Hawaii upheld the law in a 1979 ruling that was overturned on appeal.
Laurence H. Tribe, a Harvard Law School professor, argued the appeal in the Hawaii Supreme Court as a special Deputy State Attorney General.
Associate Justice Thurgood Marshall did not take part in the case, Hawaii Housing Authority v. Midkiff, No. 83-141.
Haawaii is not expensive when you consider no heating/cooling bills, less clothes needed and no need for a car. I don't mean no need for a car in Waikiki, I mean no need at all.
And you can pick up a job paying $7-$10 an hour pretty easily. I've heard Costa Rica is uber-cheap but where do you get a job? I saw a show about baseballs being made there and there were plenty of white folks there sewing up baseballs for 50 cents an hour or whatever the wages are there. Not much I'm sure and I doubt those folks would be sewing up baseballs for piece work if they could get anything better.
You are correct. The population of Hawaii now is larger than it's ever been. Even the outer islands are far above their ancient population levels.
You can grow food in the backyard, but most backyards are very small, and a lot of people live in condos and towering apartment buildings. They have no backyards.
Real estate is kind of weird in Hawaii, too. If you buy a house or a condo, a lot of times the land isn't included. If it is, the listing will say "fee simple" and the price will be higher.
Like you, I have family in Hawaii, and I'm torn. Part of me thinks being with family will be more valuable than anything else if TSHTF. Part of me thinks you'd have to be crazy to want to ride out the post-carbon age on a few over-populated rocks in the middle of the Pacific. Given the current population, it's another Easter Island waiting to happen.
My family is on the Big Island, and when I go there now, I'm just shocked how crowded it is. When I learned to drive in the '80s, there was only one stoplight in town. Now it's an asphalt jungle. More traffic signals than you can count, multilane roads, massive traffic jams. And instead of the Sears office (where your mail orders were delivered), there are all kinds of big box stores. Wal-Mart, Borders, Home Depot, etc. My high school, which had been a sleepy country school for decades, grew to four times its size, and they had to build another one. (Which at least makes it easier to have football games. ;-)
Leanan - Yes I've never denied the population is far, far above traditional levels. And the traditional people wore tapa and walked everywhere and thought seaweed mashed up with toasted kukui nuts and raw fish was a great meal - and poi. Their needs were very low on the energy scale. I just think a lot of "rats" will leave the "ship" thinking, like everyone seems to over there, that the Mainland is some kind of friggin breadbasket.
Yes the people often live in places with no yards. I did, but there are so many unused pieces of land, utterly neglected places where some sweet potatoes can be planted, herbs, etc and so many places where foodstuffs like breadfruit and so on are left to rot. Tons and tons and tons of unused land.
I have an older sister there, but she's a good American which means since I'm poor these days, she considers me the scum of the earth. She got to go to Punahou and anyone who didn't is lower than whaleshit in her world. So the family part has little meaning for me. The thing is, there are some really decent people there, you don't need a car to go places there, and it's where I grew up.
I think everyone THINKS it will be another Easter Island, but in truth it's the mainland US that will be the Easter Island scenario. Where I am now (northern arizona) really grows nothing, everything's trucked in, and you don't go anywhere without a car. Not even the mail box, which is a PO box downtown.
The Big Island has grown a lot in population. To not put too fine a point on it, if you're white, that's where you go. You have to really want to "go native" to be happy on Oahu, or have grown up there. Plenty of whites on Oahu, and in fact I was in a whiter milieu there than in Sunnyvale California, but they are still only about 25% of the population and at least on the mainland anyplace where whites are 25% of the population is "death". So, whites go to the Big Island. The computer work is almost all on Oahu, but Jay Hanson went to the Big Island for this reason. If you want to live a "modern" life, it's the place to go. If you want to live like it's the 1920s or something, not own a car, get around by bus or bike, trade with people you've literally known 2 or 3 generations of in the same small store, Oahu is the place you go.
There's potentially a lot of ethnic conflict just waiting to happen there, but it looks like that's going to happen, if things get that bad, everywhere. No one can tell me there won't be a real shootin' war here if food gets low.
The reason Easter Island became, well, Easter Island, is that they couldn't get off. I think that may happen with Hawaii, too. The rats may want to leave the sinking ship...but they may not be able to.
And the Big Island is only 30% Caucasian. If ethnicity is a concern, Jay would have been better off staying in Minnesota, which is 90% white. I think that area of the country is likely to do well, considering climate change and all.
And there's that "Minnesota Nice" thing, unless you have the money to send your kiids to private school, Hawaii's not a great place school-wise to raise kids. They'll grow up to be little Nazis lol.
Race is a pervasive and all-deciding issue in Hawaii though, and it's also become that in California. Race decides where you can go to school, whether you can go to college, etc. Who will hire you. What they will hire you to do. Whether or not you will ever get a promotion. Where you can live.
It's probably that way in NYC too, any large "diverse" place.
What's bad about the US is racial divisions and preferences are set into law.
At least in Hawaii most whites seem to understand that they have to look out for each other because it's not like anyone else is going to.....
I always thought Hawaii was a state, but after one short visit its obviously a small foreign country invaded by the United States a century ago and as things get ugly the natives seem like they'll be quite pleased to constrain the haole to military facilities in Pearl Harbor and little else ...
Race is a big part of life in Hawaii...but it's a big part of life everywhere in the US. However, it's often a shock to mainlanders, who are so used to being the majority that race issues are invisible to them.
I think Hawaii might actually handle race better than most areas of the US, because it's out in the open in Hawaii. Ethnic humor is acceptable there, in a way it isn't anywhere else in the US. The majority of people in Hawaii are now of mixed race. Racial issues are more a slow, constant simmer there, while on the mainland, they're more hidden...but more explosive because of that.
My initial post is 'way down from here, but a couple comments on these later comments:
Quite true. I will note, though, that the "malthusan gap" is probably a lot less significant on the big isle than on about any of the US mainland. That is, a comparison of the current population load vs. the stone-age population load. With a big bunch of stored fertilizer, and modern terraced fields, the big isle can grow a lot of stuff. Where else is there anything CLOSE to stone-age population levels now in the USA?
Also, property values are falling. I hope to snag a big isle farm once people start moving; and they will.
Part of me thinks that, too. The term "famine trap" comes up in my mind for oahu where I now am. If the food barges stop coming, it'll be yeast in a depleted petri dish. However, if barges of food do keep coming, it could be an OK place to be for awhile.
I'd live to see a real peak-oil crowd put their assets together to make a stand on the big isle; I think it could do quite well. Hell, we might even have enough spare time to make giant stone heads.
Hey Greenish,
I thought you were going to be part of my "clan."
Wonderful crop of nuts this year!!! Huge and luscious oranges on some of our young orange trees (planted less than 2 years ago)!!! Lots of papaya and passion fruit every day!!! But I must say it has been a LOT of work and I'm tired and need a break. Having a few younger folks around to help out sounds good.
Fixed the front end of my 71 240Z last week (rebuilt rack, new tie rod ends, clutch slave, caliper) and she's almost road worthy again. Bought her new in 1971, so she's been with me for 36.5 years. She's got a lot of rust and HI doesn't help, but she's fairly fuel efficient and extremely easy to work on (and also a lot of fun). All the hippies here in Puna drool over her. Besides the sentimentality aspect, I keep her because in a pinch she is easy to jury-rig when things go wrong and/or you can't find the exact part. Those new-fangled vehicles can be such a pain with all their electronics.
The clan is still a great plan. Still, if I can lure in a few billionaires and others, it could give the clan a certain 'edge'.
The Pahoa plan is a good one; though perhaps a work in progress? I don't want to just mooch off your property....
Though if our Dear Leaders (ie, Bush/Cheney) start making nuclear threats, don't be surprised to find me in your backyard, I think I could make it from my house to your island in about 2 hours from a standing start. If Mauna Loa erupts, feel free to hang out in my backyard for awhile. You like starfruit?
(edit)
Sounds good to me too, but I'm old & useless, just ask my wife. But treachery and guile may come in handy.
Real Estate on BI: Some of these folks are in total denial about the state of RE these days. My far right-wing neighbor listed her house over a year ago and hasn't dropped the price a dime -- and it was a premium, top of the market price to begin with. So, these yokuls decided to add onto the house so that they could "get their price." I just want them gone.... Another neighbor finally got an offer after 9 months on the market, but it was so far beneath their expectations that they took it off the market. And these folks have just finished building a new house that is next to their mac nut orchard, and they are going to rent out the new house. Very weird.
One acre lots that were selling for $60-80K at the top of the market are now selling for about $40K. One house sold recently: listed for $445K, sold for $345K. More and more for sale signs going up -- and VERY few ever come down.
On Real estate on the big isle - some years ago bought some forest lots up in Fern Forest & a house lot in Volcano. I sould a couple last year, but the remaining ones aren't moving; they're listed on craigslist and not many calls even underselling the market. I will sell, though, since I'm unsentimental about property values.
Still, with me offering a 3-acre ag lot on electricity for 35K fee simple, I reckon it'll sell to some doomer (any takers?) (disclosure: this represents a 4k doomer discount).
This sounds like something rich folks would do, but in fact we bought the forest lots just to lock something in until we could afford better farm land.
Still, if someone wanted to get some surplus cargo containers and drop 'em in the middle of the lot, well they'd have a nice funky cheap survival place to grow papayas.
I think it'll be several years before prices really fall. Of course, my place on Oahu will be falling even faster but my mom needs to be here, so I can be philosophical about the property values except at tax time. You wouldn't believe what this little plywood place I built is assessed at. yeesh.
My other neighbor's husband is in the hospital for the 3rd time, and I wonder how much longer she will hang in here. She works, then comes home and mows the grass and tries to take care of everything, visits her hubby almost every day at the hospital, and has 2 older, handicapped children -- one of which requires constant attention. She's even getting testy with her pet. I suspect that if he dies, she won't likely stay here. That will mean that of the 5 sets of neighbors I know best, 3 sets are trying to bail now and I expect her to be the next to go. When things start to get really bad and fuel costs get too high, I expect all of them to drop their prices significantly and leave. They will either move to town or off the island. It could end up being a great setup for our "clan" with all of these lots close together so that we can look out for an help protect each other.
It's interesting. Of the 3 neighbors who want to sell, the 3rd one unexpectedly put up a for sale sign. They are a little older than us (in their 60's) and they wanted to do the self-sufficiency thing. They had been talking about moving back to Israel in about 7 years because of the cheap health care and cheap food (the M.E.-- of all places). Last week I got one of those RE post cards in the mail about a new listing, and by golly the picture was of Zippora and Ramon's house. We were pretty stunned. Evidently they up and decided that it was just too much work and they've had it with some of the other issues in the area. Even really determined people can't hack the self-sufficiency thing. They just put a $25K roof on their house too -- and they'll never recoup that.
At this point, most of our neighbors who "loved" it here are trying to bail. I dare say that most Americans are not mentally prepared to try and live in truly rural area. The right-wingers still go out to dinner almost every night in Pahoa (that must be getting old) and she does 3 loads of laundry every day while bitching about the electric bill. Ha, ha, ha... Evidently, she hasn't figured out that sleeping on your sheets for more than 1 night won't kill you....
Where else is there anything CLOSE to stone-age population levels now in the USA?
There is one web log about how they have a family of 4 and how they are being fed on 400 sq foot of intense gardening.
And you have 'the hermit' at
http://www.sunnyjohn.com/indexpages/shcs_greenhouses.htm
who shows a design that could feed many on a small amount of land.
And the gent over at
http://www.thepeacock.com/
Has all kindsa ideas. Some of 'em about gardening.
Without creating a suitable environment (ala sunnyjohn link) - yea I agree about not being able to. But, if you have land, you can do some good stuff.
I think there a lot of places where the population is closer to Stone Age levels than the Big Island.
And the Big Island is problematic because it is so new. The soil is very thin. There is a real danger of having your property buried under lava. There's not enough water for the current population, which is probably a bigger problem than soil.
Kona used to be forest. Now much of it looks like desert. What happened? They cleared the trees to farm. Which caused massive erosion. Now the streams have dried up, because there's nothing to hold the water any more.
I suspect an older outer island - Kauai, maybe - would be a better choice to make a peak oil stand. The soil is in much better shape there than on the Big Island.
Your experience of the big isle has been a lot more personal than mine.
Still, I expect it to be a lot better than Oahu, and it's affordable in a way Kauai isn't. I am intrigued by the apparently rising 'peak oil' nexus of people on Kauai. It's beautiful there but I can't afford it, while I actually bought some "deep soil" lots several years ago upslope from Hilo for 5 grand each. (and they're still cheap, google "aloha estates").
There should be no reason for an immediate famine on the big isle in my lifetime, and I don't have kids. And the Kauai lowlands are a mosquito haven, I really enjoy being able to be upcountry a bit, which is harder on Kauai. I've got nothing against catchment water.
The odds of being inundated by lava are pretty low statistically, I think you'd agree. Probably about like being hit by a tornado in Indiana, and of the two I'd rather run from lava than a tornado. Plus, if your house is gonna be destroyed, how cool is it to see it swallowed by lava?
Yes, that's kind of interesting. I think being part of a like-minded community will be essential if things get really bad.
I disagree with that.
It depends on where. In some places on the Big Island, the odds are pretty high. And in some, the odds are unknown. For example, Hualalai hasn't erupted in a long time. Is it on its way to extinction...or is it overdue?
Then there's the idea that climate change might cause increased earthquakes and volcanic activity. The thing is, if you guess wrong...you might not get another chance. There may be no escape.
I don't think you can count on enough people leaving to make it sustainable, either. Hawaii will be of military interest long after its tourism industry dies. Hawaii was attacked during WWII, when the rest of the US was not.
I'd have trouble thinking of life on the slopes of an active volcano as being a good idea even if peak oil was centuries away.
I lived on Oahu for 4 years back in the 60's and it was very expensive. Gas was far higher than on the mainland.
As far as 'plenty of water' ..then why was the leeward side so much like a desert? Catcus grew there. The windward side was far more lush due to the winds and mountains but the side where Wainanae was and Eva were not as full of moisture..because of the two mountain ranges.
I hiked to the top of some of those mountains and found lots of blackberries growing there and it was more near to a rain forest but not that wet.
I also spent a lot of time on other islands in the pacific and they did not have much vegetation. Lots and lots of sand and volcanic hard types of rocky areas. Check the 'blow hole'. Lava everywhere.
Inland at that time cane and pineapples were the major crops..Most of the island was not that heavily populated and one could go to almost any beach and be all alone, except for Hanauma and Waikiki.
Then is was more like paradise , still one rarely saw a real Hawaiian..most were of Asiatic descent..
Here is the way I remember it. The Chinese behind the scenes owned a lot of everything,the Japanese ran it for them, the Filipinos did the butt work and the haole roundeyes(Americans) pay the prices and wanted butter on their toast or they threw a shit fit..at the Banyan Court.
Later it got way way way more expensive..the only ones I saw doing any handgardening ..we like Chinese with coolie hats on walking along certain areas up on the eastern side where some shacks were and what looked like small scale farms..
The huge tracts of land were owned by the descendants of the missionaries and later become huge corporations.
All the rest worked in cane or doing pineapples...or made a living off the malahines(spelling wrong,I know).
I enjoyed my four years but was happy to return to the midwest and deep south. I never returned.
Now I google it and the growth is stupendous..and now I know they won't stand a chance of surviving.
My main objective while there was to hit on the coeds at Waikiki,dive, surf and drink likker. One evening I had three dates. It was surreal. I also had a jeep there and hunted in the mountains..I went to Nanakuli many times and no 'beach boys' tried anything, ever.
airdale-saw enough fake hula to last me a lifetime..tahitian dance was more to my liking..the women would stand in one spot and shake their whole body ..no 'lovely hula hands' there...tamura!
PS. No HuHu, please.
Airdale - Ahh, the good old days eh? Good post! Let me interleave some replies....
A: I lived on Oahu for 4 years back in the 60's and it was very expensive. Gas was far higher than on the mainland.
F: Yeah, probably more expensive than Minnesota or somplace, yeah. Cheaper than Cali and 'way cheaper if you don't need a car - just hop the bus and that's self-limiting at $45 a month, unlimited pass.
A: As far as 'plenty of water' ..then why was the leeward side so much like a desert? Catcus grew there. The windward side was far more lush due to the winds and mountains but the side where Wainanae was and Eva were not as full of moisture..because of the two mountain ranges.
F: You are right about the whole Leeward Side, great place to be a cactus, if you can stand the wind. Traditionally there were little streams running around, springs and stuff but these days who knows.
A: I hiked to the top of some of those mountains and found lots of blackberries growing there and it was more near to a rain forest but not that wet.
F: Yeah, cloud forest or something, and yeah those berries are good. Until you eat the one with the worm LOL. We used to go up and pick "mountain apples" (ohia) and man those things are GOOD. But you can buy 'em for a dollar a bag at the street market in chinatown which is cool.
A: I also spent a lot of time on other islands in the pacific and they did not have much vegetation. Lots and lots of sand and volcanic hard types of rocky areas. Check the 'blow hole'. Lava everywhere.
F: Oh yeah the "blow hole" that lava-y side of the island is what the Big Island tends to be like I think, it's younger. I guess they've made it illegal to swim in the Toilet Bowl, too many people dying or something.
A: Inland at that time cane and pineapples were the major crops..Most of the island was not that heavily populated and one could go to almost any beach and be all alone, except for Hanauma and Waikiki.
F: I rmember those days, a lot of places around Kahuku and Laie etc you can be the only one there, Waimea Bay's all crowded, and the shore along Punaluu has a lot more people than it used to. (I used to walk along miles of shore there looking for - and finding - glass floats at 4AM.) The beach by Chinaman's Hat is major groups of Japanese turistas territory now.
A: Then is was more like paradise , still one rarely saw a real Hawaiian..most were of Asiatic descent..
F: Few in elementary school, and they tended to be the bullies. The whole Kuapa area in Hawaii Kai was a huge fish pond, large traditional Hawaiian area until it gradually got "civilized" and the poor Hawaiians are kind of pushed up into the backs of those dry valleys now. Yes most of the population is some type of Asian or another.
A: Here is the way I remember it. The Chinese behind the scenes owned a lot of everything,the Japanese ran it for them, the Filipinos did the butt work and the haole roundeyes(Americans) pay the prices and wanted butter on their toast or they threw a shit fit..at the Banyan Court.
F: Yep, Chinese still own most things, Japanese work for 'em, Filipinos do the butt work, Haoles sell real estate, jerk coffee at Starbucks, start small biz's, work in the sex/drug trade, or do the work that's too shitty for anyone else like work at that damned Blue Cross Animal Hospital. Plenty of Haoles with money and plenty of 'em sleeping in the park and robbing liquor stores too.
A: Later it got way way way more expensive..the only ones I saw doing any handgardening ..we like Chinese with coolie hats on walking along certain areas up on the eastern side where some shacks were and what looked like small scale farms..
F: Old Mr Antoku in Punaluu, had a farm on the mauka side of the road and his house and fishing boats nets etc on the other side, only about 80 years old and seemed to be pretty much self-sufficient. Of course he probably had 10 kids who owned 15 banks and stores too.... Lots of Asians working as gardeners, Filipinos considered especially gifted at this work so some companies advertise that they're Filipino, Samoans do coconut tree work though. No one would hire a white gardener, too bad, I really thought that's a great job.
A: The huge tracts of land were owned by the descendants of the missionaries and later become huge corporations.
F: Oh yeah the "Big Five" families etc.,
A: All the rest worked in cane or doing pineapples...or made a living off the malahines(spelling wrong,I know).
F: Cane and pineapple are dead, they're and by they're I mean Haoles thank God, are trying out growing coffee so the middle of the island is host to tons of spindly coffee trees, I hope it goes well, coffee is fairly labor-intensive and should provide some work, and there's nothing like going into a coffee shop in Haleiwa and having some Wailua beans.
A: I enjoyed my four years but was happy to return to the midwest and deep south. I never returned.
F: Lots of people from Hawaii leave and seem to find great happiness in the MW and deep south. Maybe I haven't gone east enough, northern Arizona is still kind of a suburb of California lol.
A: Now I google it and the growth is stupendous..and now I know they won't stand a chance of surviving.
F: There is a Hawaiian culture resurgence movement but it's about as successful as well, African-culture resurgence movements in the US or European tradational movements (back to the land, amish etc) in the US. Basically no one wants to grub around in a taro patch all day if Brittney's on TV and the beer's cold and you promised your buddies to go "drive 4by4" in the "kahukus". And when things do get bad, yeah, people are probably more likely to fight than work.
A: My main objective while there was to hit on the coeds at Waikiki,dive, surf and drink likker. One evening I had three dates. It was surreal. I also had a jeep there and hunted in the mountains..I went to Nanakuli many times and no 'beach boys' tried anything, ever.
F: If you're doing what they're doing, fishing, jeeping, riding a ratty old dirt bike, being "one of the boys" you'll get little hassles. What they hate is the Mainlander who has more money than they'll ever have and shoves it in his face. Then, you're likely to get the same reaction a "Toff" in England would get by acting the same way in a working-class area. Sounds like you were cool.
A: airdale-saw enough fake hula to last me a lifetime..tahitian dance was more to my liking..the women would stand in one spot and shake their whole body ..no 'lovely hula hands' there...tamura!
F: They wear weights in the skirts to shake really fast like that, weird, huh? Really hard to do without them, much easier with them.
Fleam,,
Thank you very much for the reliable update.
The 'natives' back when I was there loved to take dogs and machetes and go up in the mountains hunt wild pigs..they would kill them with the machetes and then have a luala(pig roast..spelled it wrong).
Being military we could kick ass and our gang was bigger than their gangs. But we never bothered them and they didn't us.
I have seen Tahitian female dancers and they certainly didn't need weights!!!
A bunch of the boys in my squadron were also from the south and started a folk music band..ala Kingston Trio.etc and played often at a cocktail lounge tween Waikiki and Hotel Street..a nice place and so after the nights sets they would head to the beach with a huge number of 'groupies' and if any of us went along it ended up as a regular orgy..the coeds had 'take no prisoners' attitudes about coming to the island and we were all so tanned they just knew we were local haoles beach boy types..
And if you ever knew how you arranged a male and female body on one surfboard in order to teach them or just catch some sets...well then you knew all you needed to know...
Fun was outrunning the outriggers from the canoe club...with a surfboard...and not tie-downs were required nor known of back then...
It was a great life while it lasted. There were barracks on the island that still had Japanese bullet holes in them from the attacks. Hawaii was not a state when I got there. Most did NOT want it to get statehood but it was a political/corporation done deal. I was sitting on the merry go round bar on Waikiki beach the very night it happened and was announced officially.
My best memories are jumping in the surf,,letting it carry me out..floating in the surf for hours on end then hitting a wave to take me back in...then a lomi-lomi and a big dinner at Don the Beachcombers.
Thanks again for the personal data...
and hope your life gets better...I always read Fleam's posts..
airdale- Aloha Nui Nui
I currently live on Vancouver Island and it is my belief that the I live in what really is a DEEP suburb of greater Vancouver. We are just too dependent on FF for me to think otherwise. Also, our population is quite elderly as retirement is popular for this area and the bulk of our food comes from the mainland via a huge ferry system that is constantly raising prices due to fuel costs. Our weather is also changing quite rapidly out here.
I'm curious to hear what others think of the future of Island life. What are some NA Islands that could work out OK?
Recipient of AA, Alberta Advantage
There are some islands that are very attractive from a post peak post shtf viewpoint, and some are not so.
Close by to shore Manhattan or Long island are totally unsustainable, Isolated Tristan de cuna on the other hand is practically totally sustainable on its own.
In response to what NA islands would work out ok I think that from a stand point of sustainability in an energy scarce world and a changing climate two of the best are in your country, PEI and Newfoundland,
They have pluses and minuses, PEI is still dependent on outside energy but they are building wind farms and because of the climate there constant breez and small population given enough time they could supply most of their own energy, PEI has the added advantage of retaining farm land climate change may even extend the growing season.
Newfoundland is a little more isolated and this could be looked at as an advantage or disadvantage, The province has suffered from the economic fisheries collapse and a declining population but again there is a small population and it is an energy rich area they have not only the hydro plants on the Churchill river and are planning more, the government will have greater control of the new plants than the old, there is also the oil and gas sector that the province has an ownership interest in,
Even in a diminished fishery there still should be enough for domestic consumption.
There again would be an extended growing season in a warmer world, but no too hot to bear.
And although the Atlantic hurricanes can end up there and there is wind damage the storms also bring up water that fill the reservoirs and aids in producing hydro power.
As Leanan has pointed out in a previous discussion, the place was already bumping into Malthusian limits when Captain Cook ran across the place in the 18th century. I'm not sure on what evidence that statement was based, but it's almost certain to be headed for a reduction in population.
The appearance of sustainability is based on cheap transportation and easy import from the world's many mainland areas (can you say 'Spam'?).
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
It was a very clever study. They tested the soils underneath ancient stone walls, and compared its nutrient load with samples from formerly cultivated land, to see how exhausted the soil was. Turns out, it was very exhausted. The Hawaiians were up against the wall on the Big Island, with half the current population.
Interesting study — so it was in the early stages of an Easter Island sort-of-thing. At the end of a peaceful population expansion and the beginnings of conflict among neighboring clans.
... the damp, verdent(sic) Southeast
Suggest you read up on that a bit - scan the last week of Drum Beats and you'll find things like Atlanta running out of reservoir capacity by about Christmas time and Athens getting there by Thanksgiving.
Fleam, you are right about Florida, Louisiana, et al, being areas of 'easy living', with tons of available sea food, lots of arable land and plenty of water. Those are all reasons that I moved here many years ago. However, all Florida residents now face the problem of rising sea levels...paradise lost.
I am not familiar with elevations in the Hawaiian Islands, having only visited the main island once.
River-
I lived in Maui 10 years--
These are high islands (Maui 10,000- Big Island almost 14,000)--
The rise will mainly effect prime beach front resorts, and many population centers located on the shore.
But most of the land mass has little to worry about.
"Fleam, you are right about Florida, Louisiana, et al, being areas of 'easy living', with tons of available sea food, lots of arable land and plenty of water. Those are all reasons that I moved here many years ago. However, all Florida residents now face the problem of rising sea levels...paradise lost.
I am not familiar with elevations in the Hawaiian Islands, having only visited the main island once."
Those areas in fact intrigue me. Let me go down the list....
Hot'n'sticky - check
Lots of bugs - check
Funky food - check
Funky (creole) English - check
A complicated but working racial caste system - check
Places a person can kind of "get lost" back in bayou or so on - more so there than in Hawaii.
Pretty close comparison, and possible to drive down there in a funky old toyota van (need to get one of those again) and check it out, not nearly as bad as crossing 3k miles of water.
Yes, those areas do intrigue me. Yes there's going to be some land loss due to rising ocean levels, but IF that's going to happen, I'd be more worried about Hawaii since in "Bayouflorsiana" you can just kind of back up a little on the gently sloping land, while in Hawaii you have flat, low, land then -boom - steep stuff with actually rather poor soil. Poor soil because all the rain makes the "good stuff" run down onto the flat. I am of course familiar with Oahu, which may in fact, being an older island, have more nice low plains and stuff to lose than the Big Island.
What I'm really interesting in doing is get an old toyota van like I had before and vagabond around a bit, I like Santa Cruz California, I'm intrigued by the bayou country, and there really is just about every kind of ecosystem and society to see on the mainland US.
Well, reckon I'll reply to this one, since I'm sitting here on Oahu and have given no little thought to the peal oil prospects for this island and this state.
Speaking as a guy who has a home and yard on Oahu, there are some "plusses", but I can equally see it becoming a "famine trap" in some future scenarios. There are probably 1.5 million people on this isle at any one time, and as a WAG I doubt that the total crop yield here would supply more than 100 calories of food per day apiece for them if it came to that.
On the windward side where I am, the land is indeed productive. In my 10,000 sq ft backyard I have a dozen producing coconut trees, three producing avo trees and about 20 that should be producing in 10 years or less, a starfruit tree currently heavy with several hundred pounds of K-rich starfruit which will go uneaten, a number of banana trees, a large mango tree and a number of smaller ones which should produce within 10 years, various citrus, lilikoi vines, guava, a hollow-trunk beehive and much else... and could plant that much then again. Very little work to tree crops. I also have one large and two smaller breadfruit trees, none bearing yet. They are all watered by rain exclusively and not fertilized; we pretty much can ignore them. However, despite that, this yard would not support the three people who live here. Worse, our yard is an anomaly. It is surrounded by hundreds of homes which - apart from a scattering of mango trees - have nothing but grass lawns and ornamental flower trees. Thus, none of what we have planted here will amount to anything. The "set gillnets" are bad enough now without actual hunger; within a few months of actual need, all the turtles and reef fish will be fished out.
I think I recall you were from North Shore area, and yes it used to be pretty idyllic up there and in places still is. If the food barges keep coming, and the sewer systems can be kept up, it could be an OK island to be on. Nobody freezes or dies of heat here and that's unlikely to change. If everyone were required to plant a breadfruit tree and a half-dozen coconut trees in their yard, in 25 years the island could be a lot safer. But that isn't happening; instead, what little growing land there is, is being rezoned urban as it has been for many decades, and conservation land is all golf courses being watered by deep depleting aquifer water. My home has a catchment water backup, but few do on this island. Rents are high. Of course once the tourist trade crashes, property taxes will skyrocket at the same time property values crash. Already, the steady outflow of doctors makes a bit of a sham out of the near-universal health care.
In some ways, oahu will do better than other places, and in some ways it'll be a canary in the 'peak oil' coalmine. The outer isles, particularly the big isle, have a lot greater potential for subsistence but will be even more in the boondocks in terms of medical care and what are now considered basic needs. Should be interesting.
PS: Wow, started this an hour ago, got called away, and now there are a ton of posts, there were none when I started. So sorry for any redundancy here.
Fleam, Don't give away our secret. Too many people are coming now!
...and a lot are already leaving...or at least trying to. Some were here only for the real estate boom. As the boom goes bust, they want out.
David Smith of the Times takes a pot at Peakists and thinks that Production will get to 116 billion barrels a day….
Because Alan Greenspan says it will (buried deep in Here)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2701354...
From The Sunday Times
October 21, 2007
Will soaring oil pump up inflation?
David Smith
IT is not often you get a combination of low inflation and record oil prices but that is what we have had in recent days. Not only that, but the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) considered cutting interest rates earlier this month. What’s going on?
Three months ago, when inflation dipped below the government’s 2% target, many were sceptical it would stay there. After all, it was only in the spring that Mervyn King had been forced to write an open letter explaining why inflation, at 3.1%, was too far above target.
Now, we have had three sub-2% figures in a row, the latest being September’s 1.8% rate. I have not heard King crowing from the Bank’s rooftops about this – he has had other things on his mind – but it has come as welcome relief amid his other travails.
The drop came in spite of a jump in food prices, particularly dairy products (I’ll devote a column to food soon) and petrol prices being up on a year ago.
Though many do not like such measures, “core” inflation, excluding food, alcohol, energy and tobacco, dropped to 1.5% last month, its lowest for 11 months. One worry earlier in the year was that core inflation was rising.
I just love Economists…
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
Aberdeen surfing the new oil boom
Soaring prices fuel a return of the good times
John Penman
WHEN the price of oil was in the doldrums a decade ago, one of the most popular car stickers in Aberdeen read: “Dear Lord, please let there be another oil boom. We promise not to piss it away this time.” (BS... That was a Texas Bumper Sticker. We dont do bumper stickers in Aberdeen)
The golden age of the 1970s and early 1980s, when the global oil giants descended on the Granite City to exploit – and spend – the North Sea’s riches, seemed a lifetime away.
“Those were the days of three-hour champagne lunches,” recalled Stewart Spence, owner of one of Aberdeen’s plushest hotels, the five-star Marcliffe at Pitfodels.
But when the price of oil slumped to below $10 a barrel, there was a swift end to the excesses.
In 1986, within three months of the oil crash, 15,000 Americans left Aberdeen. The hotels were empty, the restaurants shut. Bye-bye boom time.
However, spend a little time in Scotland’s oil capital today and you soon realise that the good times, like many of those big hits from the 1970s, are back and better than ever.
Hotels are full to bursting, office space is at a premium and chic designer shops such as Hugo Boss and Cruise have opened in Union Street for the first time.
As if to underline the change of fortune, a new car sticker has appeared that simply reads: “Thank you Lord.”
(WHERE? I AINT SEEN ANY – MUDLOGGER)
All round the city there are signs of success.
BP is building a new headquarters, Chevron’s is almost finished and Wood Group’s new HQ is going up on Riverside. The global giant Halliburton is next in line.
One of the biggest success stories in recent years is the oil support group PSN, run by Bob Keiller, which spun out of Halliburton two years ago. Now worth £600m, it has employed 1,800 extra people in the past two years and a stock-market listing must be on the horizon.
It is easy to see why. The oil price is soaring – Brent crude stood at $83.86 on Friday – and there is great demand across the globe for the services and expertise in which Aberdeen excels.
Clearly, the journalist has not seen the DTI's own Hubbert Graph of 2003...
I used to think David Smith was sensible ... but in e-mails to me he says he doesn't think we are anywhere near peak, or if we actually are then the government has made a terrible mistake!
He thinks the high price of crude is due to excess demand not constrained supply ... it'll soon be put right ... phew, that's ok then!
Lets hope that the government hasn't made a mistake! ... but don't hold your breath!
However, last week's Sunday Times colour supplement had a very good article (for MSM) on the coming energy crunch ... let down by the suggested fix which is to set light to the coal under the North Sea to gassify it ... the coal that is!
Xeroid.
So you correspond as well?
Hmmm...
I have more or less given up on the man. I think he is clearly in the camp of 'Supply will always meet demand' theory of economics.
But maybe I will send him one last email tomorrow.
But anyway. Economics is a young 'science'... Like Aromatherapy, or Reflexology, or Sociology, or Scientology...
I am of a mind to consider that the UK is basically real screwed from 2015 onwards, maybe as early as 2012. The Government is not addressing the strategic issues of Peak Energy in any sensible way that will mitigate the looming UK Energy Gap.
And it will take Government and not the free market to solve this at a national level.
I have told my kids to leave.
asap.
Supply will always meet demand' theory of economics.
But it does. Sometimes the supply is 'controlled' by the exchange of money for goods, other times, by being in line/having some form of marker to show you are entitled to the item!
Economics makes things all good, don't ya know.
Yes I too saw this latest Smith effort. I e-mailed the Times online article response telling him he will hang his head in shame in a few years and that he continues to do his readers a terrible disservice. I have no doubt that (again) this response wont get published.
Smith seems to belong to a recent breed of Times journalists (Anatole Kaletsky is another), who seem to be totally in thrall to the debt laden, house price driven, hollowed out economy that has been created in the UK in the past 10 years. They seem unable to comprehend of anything outside this miasma, despite the recent evidence of the US economy in trouble (itself based on a similar poisonous brew). Hence peakoil is beyond comprehension to him.
Energy Traders Avoid Scrutiny
As Commodities Market Grows, Oversight Is Slight (via Truthout)
Hello TODers,
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/20/africa/AF-GEN-Zimbabwe-Power-W...
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Massive power outage for 5th straight day in Zimbabwe capital
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What a shame when early, persistent, and universal Peakoil Outreach could have greatly mitigated this situation. Will the First World's leadership repeat the Descent Towards Olduvai, or will we learn from the lesson of Zimbabwe?
I sure wish Google would post my 'unlucky' button on their search homepage. Come to think of it: it actually is reversed--the current 'lucky' button only contributes to our yeast culture, it actually should be labeled as the unlucky choice, and the new lucky button would facilitate Peakoil Outreach to billions that our lifestyles need radical reform.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
More corroboration from another newslink:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200710191098.html
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Zimbabwe: No Power in Harare for a Week
Harare routinely suffers from periodic electricity outages, but this one is described by residents as one of the most extended and widespread in recent memory, according to our Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa. Never before have areas in the central business district gone for a week without electricity and water, compounding the urban misery in the blistering heat at the height of the summer.
Muchemwa said the problem highlights the larger difficulties in a capital beset by crumbling infrastructure and too little electricity to keep the city functioning. This is turn has meant dry water taps as the strained electricity grid cannot provide sufficient power to run water purification and pumping stations.
'There is consensus among even government officials that the country's power system is near collapse,' Muchemwa said.
Muchemwa said nearly all residential areas in Harare have been in darkness since Monday, except Borrowdale, which is home to Robert Mugabe and most of his cabinet ministers.
Zesa officials are not even sure when normal service will resume, predicting that the total blackout may persist into next week.
----------------------------
Gee--ya think?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
See! Our economy is doing great!
Black empowermnent policies at work:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7040019.stm
A racist government seizing farms from owners who took out mortgages to buy them.
BTW the city of Malibu is apparently burning down today/tonight.
Aramco VP of Operations, Khalid al-Falih, made some interesting statements today:
INTERVIEW-Energy industry can do little as oil rises-Aramco
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL2166192320071021?pageNumber=1
Aramco blames other factors, other than OPEC's production, for high prices
Manifa doesn't add to capacity
Project cost inflation may cause more delays in Saudi refinery projects
Aramco not having much luck finding gas in Empty Quarter
Reviewing Aramco’s post 2009 promised capacity increases, including the statement on Manifa from Reuters above, indicates that Aramco is letting the truth out slowly, bit by bit.
This chart shows a list of Aramco’s post 2009 projects in November 2006.
click to enlarge – source Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Energy Initiative: Washington, DC; November, 2006, Nawaf Obaid, Safeguarding Against Supply Disruptions
The first project in the chart above is Shaybah, this was to be a second expansion to bring Shaybah production up 1 mbd. According to Aramco’s most recent project schedule, only one further expansion of Shaybah is planned in 2008 which would enable Shaybah to have a capacity of at most 0.75 mbd.
The Neutral Zone expansion had an asterisk referring to the statement at the bottom of the chart “* Project not confirmed, but highly likely considering current energy initiative”. Similarly, this project also does not occur on Aramco’s recent project schedule. According to the IEA Sept 12 2007 Oil Market Report, the entire Neutral Zone produced 0.58 mbd in 2006 and 0.56 mbd in Aug 2007. This Kuwait reserves table showed that Kuwait’s share of Neutral Zone remaining reserves is 2.3 Gb. Doubling this figure gives 4.6 Gb and rounded up gives 5 Gb. Thus, the annual depletion of remaining reserves is estimated to be an appropriate 4.4%. Aramco’s capacity from its 50% share of the Neutral Zone would be at most 0.30 mbd.
From Reuters above, al-Falih said that “the 900,000 bpd Moneefa field due online in 2011, would not boost Aramco's capacity but instead would compensate for declines from other fields”. The calculation in the chart above needs to be revised. Line 2 needs to be changed from 1.4 mbd down to 0.90 mbd from new capacity only from Manifa, since the other two projects are no longer planned. Line 3 has to be equal to 0.90 mbd for al-Falih’s statement to be true. If the 0.90 mbd is natural production decline over two years, then assuming a production rate of 9 mbd for Aramco in 2009, this means that Aramco’s underlying field decline is about 5%/yr, after infill drilling.
What might be the next bit of truth from Aramco? Khurais perhaps. My prediction is that Aramco might say the following about Khurais: “Khurais will initially produce 0.8 mbd, instead of the planned 1.2 mbd. The additional 0.4 mbd will be an expansion project, completed later as required.” This is a more optimistic view than Matt Simmons on page 215 of his book Twilight in the Desert – “It is puzzling to consider that Saudi Aramco would entertain spending $3 to $4 billion on Khurais, thinking that the field could produce as much as 800,000 barrels of oil a day. The odds of reaching that production goal must be relatively long.”
Hello TODers,
This just in:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKN2138862320071021
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Georgia has declared a state of emergency over its worst drought in decades and appealed to President George W. Bush for federal aid.
If no rain falls within 80 days, the lake will reach the bottom of its storage pan, although it will not have run dry, according to Ronald Payne, deputy commander of the Mobile district for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
------------------------
Sorry, but money is NO Substitute for water, not even close: it will be interesting to see, if things get much worse, if FEMA does a heckuva job or fumbles again.
Nawlins' drown-job by Brown will be seen as small potatoes if the SouthEast, totally decimated by drought, develops a regional Bushfire. Real, political flames from Atlanta to Malibu? It is terribly dry humor from the SouthWest, too.
Interesting times,for sure....
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob,Part and parcel of the drought problem and being really deficit in your rainfall is that even if it comes very nice showers the water just soaks in and very little runoff.
We are way way behind here and got three inches in one night..I then trod the creek beds or looked at them and there was very very little runoff.
So they might get some rain but will it do any good..when you are that far in the hole it might take one heck of a lot.
Not that I am an expert on this...I am just in an area shaded as Extreme Drought...and I have never experienced it here before as far as dryness. Not that it hasn't happened but not in the 20+ years I have been on 'this' farm.
I lived in N. Carolina for years also and never saw it as dry as it is now.
We are sliding into some bad times..its right in front of us and happening right now. Many around here are acting as though its not happening...well they are going to be feeding their cattle some of the worst trash I have ever seen...and I custom baled hay all over this county for many years after retirement. Never have I seen this stuff used for cattle feed. Not by folks who usually have the wherewithal.
And its coming off the land instead of being left on the land to give back its nutrients and N,P,K..which in the case of corn stalks is very large indeed.
airdale-
Media Alert: "Current world oil supply & Impact On Prices" LIVE Monday 7:45am ET C-SPAN
Probably just more of the same, but I happened to notice it as a program update on an on-screen overly.
Speaking of media alerts...
NIKKEI down a bunch right out of the gate (currently -446.58)
Bloomberg: Japanese Stocks Drop After U.S. Subprime Crisis Curbs Earnings
Yup, the east is red this morning
http://www.nikkei.co.jp
http://www.hsi.com.hk/family/indexfamily_e.html
Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study
I was just about to post that. Things seem to be hotting up. Oh well, here's a different doomy story:
http://www.headlinesindia.com/archive_html/22October2007_60128.html
Thanks for that!
The report says peak in 2006 and that production is about 81 mbd now and 39mbd by 2030. I assume that this production includes crude oil, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids; and excludes refinery processing gains and biofuels.
The report also says production will now fall by 7%/yr - seems high??? If a decline rate of 3.1%/yr is used and applied exponentially for 23 years from 2007 to 2030, then the 81 mbd drops to 39 mbd.
The whole report will be ready 11am German time here
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
Predictions twenty three years into the future are pure nonsense - those depend on everything working perfectly and we all know many, many things are simply going to break down and never be repaired.
Twenty three month predictions are a lot more interesting ...
Leanan...you might consider this for the A#1 spot on tomorrow's Drumbeat...just adding another log to the fire...PO Awareness - 2007 is the year!!
The EWG report has been released
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
I just had a quick scan and despite some flaws, the approach was fresh and bold – I liked it.
Here is their peak chart of crude oil, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids.
World Oil Production has Peaked in 2006 – (page71)
click to enlarge
The report makes comparisons to the forecasts of Campbell and Robelius on page 69.
I really liked Annex 2 of the report, which critiqued the USGS, EIA and IEA, from page 75 to page 91!
This is the final remark of the critique on page 91
It really is time for the USGS, the EIA and the IEA to present reasonable oil forecasts to the world. The last two paragraphs on page 71 sum this up.
Ace, thanks for posting this.
Any thoughts on what might trigger any of these groups to alter their forecasts before shortages and depletion are obvious to all, and mitigation is too late?
The US has what are called neighborhood electric vehicle (NEV) or Low Speed Vehicle (LSV) regulations. The purpose of these regulations was to permit vehicles on the streets that otherwise would not normally be allowed because they don't meet the safety requirements of regular cars. Their advantage is that they are presumably less expensive to build and operate and don't use gasoline for fuel. Because these vehicles are presumably less safe, these regulations limit the vehicles to 25 mph on streets of 35 mph or less speed limits. Most of the States have adopted these regulations.
A couple of States (Montana and Washington) have decided that these regulations are too restrictive of the market and have passed additional regulations defining an MSV (Medium Speed Vehicle). These allow operation of the vehicle at speeds up to 35 mph and on streets with a 45 mph limit or less. I'm sure that the MSV would be much more apealing in the electric vehicle market place.
I would recommend that the US readers of TOD get behind efforts to expand the coverage of the MSV nationally and/or to more States to enhance the adoption of electric vehicles in this country in light of the coming oil crunch.
Knowing nothing about this I'd guess it was politically acceptable to permit a type of car that wouldn't actually get used ... but with gas prices going to the stratosphere it could be a piece of political gamesmanship that may actually prove useful.
The Drudge report just took peak oil mainstream with an article about the World Energy Watch report delivered in London today. It references a guardian article. see http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html They claim peak is past and we will be looking at 7% declines and social unrest. Check it out.
Actually the Energy Watch Group, a German organization we have quoted before on Coal.
The Drudge Report and mainstream in the same sentence without any intention to be ironic. The world truly has gone mad.
While you may find Matt Drudge's politics not to your taste, 450 million hits a month is mainstream in anybodys book.
The geopolitical situation in Iraq is becoming more and more complicated for the Bush Administration. Turkey is on the verge of moving troops into Northern Iraq (de facto Kurdistan) after the latest PKK attack on Turkish troops. On top of that, the populist and pro-Bush government in Poland has lost the elections to a liberal coalition that has already announced that Poland will withdraw its troops from Iraq in 2008. In addition, the "new" Polish government will also likely back out of the US missile defense plan unless it receives substantial security guarantees from the US. Putin couldn't be happier I'm sure.
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/oposicion/liberal/impone/pa...
(Sorry it's in Spanish, but it's the most comprehensive article I could find.)
http://www.euronews.net/index.php?page=info&article=449509&lng=1
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-10/22/content_6920785.htm
A Turkish invasion of Northern Iraq would be an absolute embarrassment to Bush. The Kurdish government is estimated to have 100,000 men available to take up arms against Turkey should they attack. In other words, it will not be a picnic for Turkey and it could lead to a prolonged and bloody war. It will obviously have a huge impact on oil production/exports and the price of oil.
The Kurds start signing oil deals that don't involve the main government and suddenly all sorts of trouble begins. I know Turkey is concerned about an independent Kurdistan but there has to be something else going on, taking the U.S. House resolution regarding Turkish genocide.
I suppose if we crash fast there won't even be a book written in ten years that explains it all ...
Marc Faber was just on CNBC.
Joe Kernan was asking where is a safe place for money.
Faber told Joe he should buy a farm and learn to drive a tractor!
Kernan and Co. were a little taken aback.
Marc must be reading WT.