http://science.reddit.com/info/2gqzj/comments

http://digg.com/business_finance/Dean_Update_What_We_Know_about_Mexico_s...

if you are so inclined...

What I would welcome right now is information on:

a) how much of Mexico's total production is affected
b) what's the design standards of those rigs in Campeche, and
c) thoughts on how long will this go (which is Chuck Watson's bailiwick...and right now, his initial estimate has a chance of a couple of months off line with the current models (when I wrote this, it was a Cat2 coming into Campeche, now it's projected to be a Cat1) and estimates--more on that tomorrow)

any other detailed maps of Cantarell and Campeche are welcome, but please do continue linking to maps (esp. of Cantarell/Jack/Yucatan), oil maps, NG maps, LNG stations, refinery maps, pipeline maps, shipping lanes, rig maps, news stories, weather, track predictions, strategic resources, and all that other stuff in this comment thread.

Not to detract from what really is a heckuva nasty weather event that will cause hurt to many, but the oil market is still not having it. Dean doesn't scare them any more (Brent: 68.50)

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

I'll stick my neck out here and say those traders know something we don't. Perhaps Dean is not expected to be able to get it up after tangling with the Yucatan. At least not enough to damage the oil infrastructure.

Tokyo equities are surging so it's not renewed mortgage panic taking down oil.

Excellent summary, Prof.
I found an older (2003) poster of Pemex assets here (~3Mb):

http://downloads.pennnet.com/os/posters/2003_m14.pdf

I'm more worried of what Dean's impact will be after it gets past Campeche and then starts building steam again in those warm waters...could impact the refineries and infrastructure on the other side of the Gulf such as those at Ciudad Madero.

Are you a peak oiler? www.cafepress.com/crashdummy

Hello TODers,

From the very bottom of the last Dean keythread, plus some additional speculation {Prof. Goose, feel free to delete if this is seen as needless duplication}:

Hello Asebius,

Dean hitting Mexico, and not affecting oil prices could be a big mistake on the traders' assumptions. Let me explain my feeble reasonings:

1. Assume Dean hits somewhere between Veracruz and Tampico after crossing the Yucatan.

2. The Liebig Minimum in the Mexican FF-infrastructure might be the electric powerlines and pipelines as they cover the greatest distance and are most exposed to high winds, flash-floods, and landslide events.

3. High tension towers twisted like preztels, or washed down a hillside will take a long time to repair or replace even if you can secure the steel materials. There will be lots of washed out roads and bridges in Mexico if Dean is a severe rainfall event. Hell, a lot of their roads are poorly maintained already. Buses going off cliffs regularly, and that sort of thing! =(

4. Much of the same phenomena applies to pipelines if a significant number of washouts occurs. You can't start refilling a pipeline until all breaks are repaired and electrical juice is resupplied to the numerous pumping stations along the pipeline route.

5. I have no idea how close to sea-level the ports and refineries are in Eastern Mexico, but obviously a storm surge would screw things up for awhile, but it may not be a disaster [just a real pain in the ass]. A worse event would be a landslide or huge flash-flood really re-arranging the refinery equipment and/or causing a big fire. Or totally disabling a powergen plant by putting 10 feet of mud inside a turbine.

6. I have no knowledge of Mexico's Grid System, but if the Yucatan gets splayed plus the eastern coastline gets whipsawed, can the other parts of Mexico shift enough power to these areas to help power what infrastructure they have until it all gets repaired?

7. For example, if the offshore oilfield platforms [Cantarell, KMZ] ride through the hurricane relatively undamaged, but you cannot generate the power to gasify the oilfields-- not much is going to come up out of those production platforms.

8. Recall from much earlier postings of mine than Mexico is the acknowledged world class leader in deforestation and desertification. So a huge rainfall event could be quite destructive, and high winds and any storm surge would just be further cascading blowback events.

9. Mexico is an importer of gasoline. Pretty difficult to repair infrastructure if you can't import sufficient fuel to run trucks, bulldozers, cranes, etc, because the off-loading ports and pumps are disabled.

In short: Mexico is relying on very long, very thin spiderweb strands. It might also be seen as a golden opportunity for an explosive attack, or your normal run of the mill stealing of copper and other goodies. Who knows?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Yes, Prof. Goose, this is an excellent summary.
Thank you.

The 11PM update is now up. The latest forecast show the eye passing about 50 miles from Cantarell as a cat. 1 with peak wind speeds of 92 mph. The wind charts show that the facilities on shore ought to see significantly lower wind speeds:

The problem with any forecast with a hurricane is they are just too darn big and powerful with so many factors affecting them that they are very difficult to predict.

I have my doubts as to any forecast before the storm reenters the Gulf. Its still not impossible for Hurricane Dean to hook north and come ashore on the US Gulf Coast, its not even out of the Carribean yet.

It seems to me that we are willing to assume the worst always on The Oil Drum. Bob Ebersole

Hello TODers,

Please read my speculative post upstream in this thread first.

The major problem with hurricanes crossing the Yucatan, then restrengthing across the GoM, then slamming into Eastern or Southeastern Mexico is that the hurricanes tend to drop tremendous amounts of rainfall as they are prone to dilly-dally around after hitting the high mountain ranges in Mexico.

The weather airflow is disrupted by the many diverging wind currents sweeping over the central mountains; it may take time for the jetstreams to sweep the tremendous thunderclouds clear of the mountains, then out to sea, or up into the US heartland. This downpouring weather effect combined with deforestation and desertification, plus poorly maintained Mexican infrastructure is what would cause the greatest damage and delay repairs to the FF-spiderwebs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Hurricanes_in_Campeche

EDIT: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N19350170.htm
----------------------------
The bulk of Mexico's crude oil exports are shipped through the Mexican Gulf from Dos Bocas, Cayo Arcas and Pajaritos ports. The ports are still open, Mexico's government said.

The last storm to seriously disrupt Mexico's oil industry was in July 2005, when Pemex had to evacuate thousands of rig workers, temporarily cut off oil production from dozens of rigs and briefly halted shipments due to Hurricane Emily.
-------------------------

Maybe we need to see where these shipping ports are located, and how many miles of power-towers, pumping stations, and pipelines are required to keep them up and running. How many riverbeds for the pipelines, and/or mountain ranges for the high tension gridtowers? Underground electrical lines?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

http://www.pemex.gob.mx/index.cfm?action=mapa

A very cool map...forwarded from an industry insider. (it's Flash, so I couldn't paste it.)

Hi PG,

Thanks for the update and the info on Mexico!

The update in the chart below shows that Dean is predicted to head for Cantarell and KMZ.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?5day#con...

and evacuation has started

"Mexico's Pemex oil company started to evacuate 13,360 workers from its Gulf rigs ahead of Dean's arrival there."

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&sub...

Dumb question. There is finite amount of oil in Cantarell that is depleting rapidly. So if Cantarell is shut down for say a month, she'll just produce oil for an extra month down the road. What difference does it make?

The KMZ field has so far not been shut down. A large amount of the production is being produced through the Yuum Kak Naab FPSO which is designed to remain in place during a cat. 5 hurricane. In extreme weather conditions it can be disconnected and briefly moved away from the production location. Shutting down 140 rigs should have no effect on production. Clearly production may be reduced for a few days due to offloading challenges however, it should be assumed that Mexican oil production will be back at full capacity within a few days. There are many very important issues to be discussed here at the Oil Drum but making a mountain out of a mole-hill just doesn't wash.

The last I read Pemex says it is shutting in 2.65M barrels per day. I did some research and haven't found a single case of a hurricane hitting the Cantarell complex...ever. Anyone have data to the contrary?

NEW POST UP TOP AT 1:20A EDT, 8/21

I am not sure this post applies to this topic, but I find the thinking in this article fascinating. Here is a quote from it....link below:

"Crude prices are global prices and the kind of disruption to crude oil production realized by hurricanes is pretty minimal," Ervin said, adding that sometimes it is speculators that push up futures prices.

Article: http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/248743