Right click and click view image to see these full size, I want to keep them manageable for now.

A Google earth mashup:

The green bars are representing 2005 oil production (blue bars for gas production). Click to Enlarge

The blue dots are representing the major oil platforms. Click to Enlarge

Those images were obtained using Google Earth using the tools given here.
I plan to add refinery positions soon.

One of my favorite sites, TheStormTrack.com, has posted a Dean update.

Dean Preparing to Strengthen Significantly

The latest model runs continue to show astounding congruity between the models, tracking Dean almost on top of each other WNW directly over Jamaica until just south of the Caymans where they begin to diverge with some models bringing Dean over the Yucatan and some bringing him in a more Wilma/Ivan track between Cuba and the Yucatan and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Our ability to predict beyond 3 days (beyond just past Jamaica) is very suspect though, as there are many variables that we just cannot control. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida should keep a close watch on Hurricane Dean.

If, as currently indicated, Dean tracks directly over Jamaica, we will have to reevaluate everything. Jamaica has quite large mountains in the center of the island and Hurricanes do very poorly when passing over high elevations. Jamaica could do quite a number on our storm and knock his strength down significantly with the right conditions.

This is a good site with blog to keep up with the latest news about Dean and the other storms that will likely follow this season:

WunderGround Blog

And ofcourse the National(USA) Hurricane Centre

Roger From The Netherlands

1:52 update courtesy TWC - winds now 125MPH!! badbadbad...

For the "quick and easy" crowd you really can't beat the Tropical Storm Risk site http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/ The pages load fast and are extremely easy to navigate, just click on the map to drill down into specific storms and forcast locations.

Cheers,
Jerry

Mexican off-shore field locations, including Cantarell:

Source: offshore-mag.com

As noted by local meteorologists in New Orleans (whom I trust more than the Feds), the key point is the interaction of the Blue Mountains of Jamaica with Dean. 7.400' tall but small surface area, they can violently disrupt a hurricane and the interaction is not properly modeled.

A small displacement in the path can change the interaction from leading side (bad side) to eye to trailing side (good side). Good sized mountains in Hispaniola as well as some moderate size mountains in Eastern Cuba (the rest of Cuba and Yucatan is relatively flat).

Monday we will know more & better,

Best Hopes for the Blue Mts,

Alan

A useful graph for understanding the uncertainty in predictions and the past accuracy of forecasts.

Basically if the track comes within 300km of something important, 72 hours out - worry.

Typical 'Texas as target' dimension = 300km

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_l...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemex#Current_situation

http://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF8&om=1&z=7&ll=19.849394,-94.163818&spn...

How oil prices are staying down today is baffling. Last year, if a CAT 3 was even thinking about Texas, prices on a Friday would have gone ballistic.

It's tempting to mortgage the house (if I could get a loan!!! :)) and buy more futures, but prudence forbids it.

Have a nice weekend everybody.

This is from the EIA Hurricane analysis for 2007, showing historical production of oil and gas from the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil production seems to be about 1.4 million BPD; natural gas appears to be about 7.5 billion cu. ft. per day.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=140085

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=140082&st=80

I'm looking for a list of refinery positions around the gulf of Mexico (address or lat/lon coordinates), thanks!

Hey guys,
How plausible would it be to configure oil rigs to pump up cool water from the floor of the gulf, in advance of a storm in order to weaken the storm...

Would it make sense to have a first line of defense in the gulf to change the surface temp?

Gov. Perry Declares Hurricane Dean Imminent Threat to Texas

Gov. Rick Perry today declared Hurricane Dean an imminent threat to Texas, initiating full-scale state hurricane preparedness efforts. Perry activated state resources, including search and rescue teams, as National Weather Service projections show Hurricane Dean could impact the Texas coast by the middle of next week.

...The Texas fuel industry has begun surging fuel loads to all coastal counties to ensure adequate fuel supply

Chad Myers, CNN meterologist, just did the Hurricane Dean segment. They showed all the tracks, and they asked him, "Is there any one of those models you trust more than the others?"

He said there was, but he didn't want to say. But he eventually admitted that the one he trusted was "the one that goes straight to Louisiana." He said it's a higher resolution model than the others, whatever that means.

Over at NHC, someone said GFDL has a very good historical track record.

Dean is Cat. 4 now:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/172042.shtml

Infrared satellite movie every 6 hours:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/namerica_IR.html

Here is an animated grahics of Dean! pretty nice if I don't mind saying!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/DEAN_graphics.shtml

We shall see if Jamaica is really the pivot point on a slight turn to the right for Dean, then the GFDL model will be more validated, "Houston we have a problem!"

Groucho: You know I think you're the most beautiful woman in the world?
Woman: Really?
Groucho: No, but I don't mind lying if it gets me somewhere

Groucho Marx in A Night in Casablanca (Movie)

Please excuse my ignorance but is there something in the top right here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/samerica_IR.html or to the right here http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi?BASIN=data&SUB_BASIN=... that should be at all concerning.

Its strengthening all the time, Cat 5 soon I should think, here is the 2am update:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/180548.shtml

Does anyone know how the hurricane path looks related to the location of the giant and massively expensive "Thunder Horse" BP rig?

The other question I have relates to timing. Is it not correct that a fair amount of oil production is now going to heating oil production in getting ready for winter and that most of the big gasoline refining season is over?

On natural gas, how does the timing of a possible big disruption in the Gulf relate to the natural gas "injection season" in preperation for winter? How far along are we in the injection season?

Thanks to the petroleum industry insiders with any information....:-)

Roger Conner Jr
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

As of the 5 am report Dean's a borderline category 5 aimed straight at Jamaica. If this hits Jamaica harder than Ivan in 2004, it's going to be a catastrophe. Grand Cayman was also hit badly by Ivan.

PG--

I'm not sure if I have seen this link here yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl.html

It gives various options on satellite views of the atlantic.

Hurricane Dean approaches Category 5

HURRICANE Dean is expected to grow into a ferocious Category 5 storm as it passes Jamaica and nears Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the oil and gas rigs of the Gulf of Mexico after it smashed into several Caribbean islands, the US National Hurricane Centre said on Saturday.

With top sustained winds of 240km/h early today, the hurricane centre said Dean was a Category 4 storm, the second-highest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale and capable of widespread destruction.

The hurricane centre said it was expected to strengthen to Category 5, with top sustained winds in excess of 250km/h, before plowing directly over Jamaica toward the Gulf, home to a third of US domestic crude oil and 15 per cent of natural gas production.

At 5am EDT (19:00 AEST) today, the hurricane centre said several consensus models saw the storm moving toward the northern Yucatan and northeastern Mexico, and the projected track was “nudged a little south of the previous forecast in best agreement with consensus models”.

A hurricane warning likely will be posted for Jamaica later today, it said. The core of the storm will pass south of the Dominican Republic later today and south of Haiti in the evening, it said. Dean roared through the narrow channel between the Lesser Antilles islands of St Lucia and Martinique early on Friday, crossing from the Atlantic Ocean to the warm Caribbean Sea.

Dean's projected path would put it directly over Jamaica tomorrow and near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or straight into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday. If it crosses the Yucatan, it is projected to emerge in the southern Gulf and could disrupt operations in the Cantarell Complex of Mexican oil fields, which is one of the world's most productive and supplies two-thirds of Mexico's crude oil output.

Computer models have fluctuated between an eventual landing as far north as Louisiana, and Belize, at the southern end of the Yucatan, but began to shift generally more to the south late on Friday.

Infracture maps and details

Please see www.pemex.com
for quarterly results and discussion of production and refining

Some videos on youtube about Dean passing thru the Lesser Antilles (central islands)

St. Lucia:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=BJjNgDIKPkU

Dominica:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=a_ZULi4DtU4

Well, maybe good news. This morning's GDFL model now has Dean making landfall quite a bit farther south, near Brownsville.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081806-dean04l&field...

That is a big shift from where it had been placing it over the past couple of days, and brings GDFL closer into line with the other models.

GDFL still shows Dean being a monster storm in the GOM, so that is little comfort for folks near the south Texas coast.

We are still so far out that a lot can change, after it passes through the Yucatan it could still go anywhere. Continued alertness would be prudent.

HurricaneAlley.net shows strong hurricane track imagery using Global Tracks

Hurricane Dean

Emily in 2005 had a very similar track to the one currently projected for Dean.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_%282005%29
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/EMILY-05.gif

Dean has Shell removing more workers from U.S. Gulf

Royal Dutch Shell said it was evacuating 300 more support workers from U.S. Gulf of Mexico facilities on Saturday due to Hurricane Dean.

"Since the beginning of the week, Shell has evacuated approximately 460 people, with approximately 300 scheduled to be evacuated today," Shell said in a news release Saturday. "Evacuations are expected to continue through the weekend."

Shell has shut down production on approximately 10,000 barrels of oil and 15 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in preparation for the storm's possible entry into the U.S. Gulf, Shell said.

here's a topographic map of mexico showing that there's not much in the way of geographic barrier between Dean and Cantarell:

my very crude animator for NOAA images. Select an area, number of frames and image type and click the top button (sorry, animation control images aren't linked)

Warning: free web-hosting so turn pop-up blocking on.

Blue Mountains of Jamaica

There appears to be a very good chance that Dean will hit the Blue Mountains directly with it's eye. Highest point 7,400' (2,240 m ?).

The Blue Mts are small, the eye is small. Does anyone have detailed topographic maps of Jamaica ?

Also how high are the mountains on the southern coast of Haiti ? They are fairly high in the center.

Best Hopes for poking the eye out of Dean :-)

Alan

NASA is bringing the Space Shuttle home early to avoid the weather.

U.S. Refineries Operable Capacity
(Atmospheric Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
as of January 1, 2007)

Rank
1 Exxonmobil Refining & Supply Co Texas Baytown 562,500 b/d...de capacidad de refino
4 Bp Products North America Inc Texas Texas City 417,000
6 Exxonmobil Refining & Supply Co Texas Beaumont 348,500
8 Deer Park Refining Ltd Partnership Texas Deer Park 333,700
11 Flint Hills Resources Lp Texas Corpus Christi 288,126
12 Motiva Enterprises Llc Texas Port Arthur 285,000
14 Houston Refining Lp Texas Houston 270,200
17 Premcor Refining Group Inc Texas Port Arthur 260,000
19 Conocophillips Company Texas Sweeny 247,000
27 Total Petrochemicals Inc Texas Port Arthur 232,000
30 Valero Refining Co Texas Texas Texas City 218,500
40 Valero Energy Corporation Texas Sunray 171,000
45 Citgo Refining & Chemical Inc Texas Corpus Christi 156,000
49 Wrb Refining Llc Texas Borger 146,000
53 Valero Refining Co Texas Texas Corpus Christi 142,000
56 Western Refining Company Lp Texas El Paso 122,000
62 Pasadena Refining Systems Inc Texas Pasadena 100,000
70 Valero Refining Co Texas Texas Houston 83,000
79 Marathon Petroleum Co Llc Texas Texas City 72,000
92 Delek Refining Ltd Texas Tyler 58,000

(h/t http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/showthread.php?t=36703&page=3)

Minerals Management Service big map of the Gulf of Mexico showing oil platforms and infra...

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/lsesale/Visual2.pdf (5Mb pdf warning...)

http://www.mapsearch.com/digital_products.cfm

http://images.pennnet.com/mapsearch/all_pipe.jpg (pipelines)

http://images.pennnet.com/mapsearch/refineries.jpg (refinery locations, US)

http://www.api.org/Newsroom/hurricane/

http://www.ddbstock.com/largeimage/pemex.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries#Mexico

http://www.einnews.com/mexico/newsfeed-mexico-oil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_hurricanes_(1900-1979)

The latest revised track now has Dean heading close to Cantarell (although it will no doubt lose a lot of power as it passes over the Yucatan before it gets there). However it will now NOT apparently hit Jamaica square on so it wont supposidly lose any power in contact with the mountains there. It might therefor very well still be a very strong 4/5 by the time it hits the Yucatan - myabe it would fall to a 1/2 as it passes over there before passing close to Cantarell?

BEIJING -- At least 13 people were killed as a tornado and Typhoon Sepat hit the Chinese mainland after more than 900,000 were evacuated as a precaution, state media reported Sunday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/19/AR200708...

The following was posted Aug. 18 on the Minerals Management Services web site regarding Hurricane Dean. Last week they reported that because of Erin 13 platforms in the GOM had been evacuated. Is there a source for informationon evacuation/shut-down of Mexican oil/platform facilities?

Minerals Management Service Activates Its Continuity of Operations Plan

NEW ORLEANS — Offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico have begun evacuating platforms and rigs and have shut-in oil and natural gas production in the path of Hurricane Dean. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) has activated its Continuity of Operations Plan team to monitor the operators’ activities. The team will remain activated until operations return to normal and the storm is no longer a threat to Gulf oil and gas activities.

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 a.m. CST today, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 1 production platforms, equivalent to 0.1 percent of the 834 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Production platforms are the structures located offshore from which oil and natural gas are produced. These structures remain in the same location throughout a project’s duration unlike drilling rigs, which typically move from location to location.

Personnel from 2 rigs have also been evacuated; this is equivalent to 2 percent of the 101 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. Rigs can include several types of self-contained offshore drilling facilities including jackups, submersibles and semisubmersibles.

Hello TODers,

I certainly am no weather & climate expert, but please examine the latest Drought map [which is clearly getting worse]:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

IF Hurricane Dean continues on its current Mexico track:

1. Will the precipitation dispersal pattern vis-a-vis the jetstream bring rain to Mexico, then Texas, Oklahoma, and the other White areas of the Drought map? These areas don't need anymore moisture, AFAIK.

2. Or will the precipitation dispersal pattern bring needed moisture to the US Southwest red area and/or the US Southeast red area? These are the parched hotspots that really do need the rainfall.

Perhaps, an unlikely? hurricane track swing to the north with a landfall east of Mississippi to replenish the SE's water supplies may head off worsening Southeastern drought problems?

People can temporarily live with drastically reduced oil & gas from a hurricane impact on infrastructure, admittedly not easily. But no food or water as the Liebig Minimum creates an entirely different social situation.

My feeble two cents, feel free to elaborate or refute.

EDIT: My heart goes out to the Jamaicans. It now appears Dean will track just along their Southern coastline; the worst case scenario. The people must be scared to death at what that means for them: maximum storm surge, maximum winds, and maximum rainfall causing mudslides and huge flash floods.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

can someone post a map that locates the nitrogen production facilities at Cantarell? Muchos Gracias.

I wrote and posted some hurricane erotica on DailyKos early this morning and its made the recommended diary list. Yes, erotica and not porn - just words, no pictures.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/19/05854/9179

Hello TODers,

From the CIA Factbook: Jamaican pop = 2.8 million on an island slightly smaller than Connecticut. Yet many Jamaicans are already expecting the US to flood them with post-hurricane aid and rebuilding funds. Perhaps they already forgot about FEMA's track record in Nawlins and the Mississippi Delta?

Also from the CIA Factbook:
-------------------------------
Natural resources: bauxite, gypsum, limestone
[I would imagine these industries will be widely flooded and infrastructure wrecked--BS]

Environment - current issues:
heavy rates of deforestation; coastal waters polluted by industrial waste, sewage, and oil spills; damage to coral reefs; air pollution in Kingston results from vehicle emissions. [This deforestation sadly only adds to the flashflood and mudslide potential from Hurricane Dean--BS]

Agriculture - products:
sugarcane, bananas, coffee, citrus, yams, ackees, vegetables; poultry, goats, milk; crustaceans, mollusks
[These will most likely be toast post-hurricane Dean--BS]

Industries:
tourism, bauxite/alumina, agro processing, light manufactures, rum, cement, metal, paper, chemical products, telecommunications
[If the damage to the tourism industry is severe: it may take a long time for their economy to recover as it is already experiencing negative GDP growth from the last hurricane hit. Pleas examine more worrisome details in the CIA Factbook page on Jamaica--BS]
----------------------------------
Unfortunately, I expect widespread looting and other terrors in Jamaica after Dean passes [it has happened before from lesser hurricane hits]. Compare with Bangladeshi flooding and the Peruvian earthquake where people are fighting for meager supplies. Such is life.

I wonder how many Jamaicans moved their cars, trucks, motorcycles, and tractors to safe high ground before the hurricane. Recall the pictures from Oman where brand new cars in the dealer lots were wrecked by flashfloods because the owners did not anticipate how bad the flooding would be from Hurricane Gonu.

Even if the vehicles' interior and bodywork is pummeled, that is far, far cheaper than having the drivetrain filled with mud and water. I would strap down on high ground, with steel cables attached to deep anchors and/or sturdy trees, a high dollar tractor or truck, then hope the winds don't make it airborne.

EDIT: If you love Jamaican rum, I suggest you stock up now. Will Jamaica be transformed into another Haiti by Hurricane Dean? Time will tell.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Almost Total Cantarell Evacuation

Mexico clears oil rigs as hurricane nears
Might order total well closure

Mexican state oil company Pemex on Sunday evacuated thousands of oil workers from the Gulf of Mexico and warned it might close up to 2.2m barrels a day of crude oil production as the powerful hurricane approached.

Pemex said it was evacuating 13,360 workers – most of its workforce in the area - and that it might order the ”total closure of the oil wells” in the Cantarell oil field and other fields.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96593284-4e46-11dc-85e7-0000779fd2ac.html

Jamaican leader pleads for people to go to shelters

The prime minister made a last-minute plea for Jamaicans to abandon their homes Sunday as Hurricane Dean began lashing the island with heavy winds and torrential rains on its destructive and deadly march across the Caribbean. Many residents ignored the call, however, while tourists holed up in resorts with hurricane-proof walls.

Coastal Texas and Mexico also began evacuations to avoid the storm's wrath, with many Texans hoping to avoid the disastrous last-minute exodus before Hurricane Rita in 2005.

Jamaica set up more than 1,000 shelters nationwide in converted schools, churches and the indoor national sports arena, and authorities urged people to take cover from a Category 4 storm that could rake the country with winds of 145 mph and dump up to 20 inches of rain.
But only 47 shelters were occupied as the outer bands of the storm began hitting the island early Sunday, said Cecil Bailey of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

"For the last time, I'm asking you to leave or you will be in danger," Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller said as the storm loomed offshore. Forecasters said Jamaica, home to 2.7 million people, would take a near-direct hit from Dean, with the eye passing just to the south.
As of 2 p.m. Sunday, the storm was located about 80 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and was traveling west-northwest at 18 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

For some reason, the oil market is not buying Dean.

At least not at 19:22 Sunday eve.

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Crude down %1.

The interaction of Dean with Jamaica is fascinating (to my untrained in meteorology eyes). From the front animated satellite graphic it looks like the eye scrapes the bottom of Jamaica and what appears to be a fan of air is ejected northward. As this happens the eye changes its course to the south. Classic example of conservation of momentum?

NEW POST ON DEAN AS OF 20:50 EDT 8/19