A Note on Dean and TS Erin Coverage

First a brief note on TS Erin in the GOMEX...forecaster and Friend of TOD Chuck Watson (of Watson Technical Consulting, the Kinetic Analysis Corporation, and the University of Central Florida Department of Statistics) says that TS Erin in the GOMEX probably won't do much other than cause some evacuations ("Shell is already, some others like Apache were thinking about it this morning.") Chuck's early models are showing a 50% chance of 3.2 MMBBL production loss from the GOMEX over the next five days.

Dean may be more of an issue in about 8 days. Several reliable long range models show Dean in the GOMEX as a major storm. The Oil Drum will go in to "Drudge Siren" mode when and if we get real development from Dean and entry into the GOMEX. We'll keep you posted.

I wouldn't get too excited about it unless you've seen a bunch of Dolphin waving goodbye and singing; "So long, and thanks for all the fish". :)

Thank you , Professor Goose. I think that the cyclone coverage was a high water mark for theoildrum. The only flaw I saw was in our post mortem work, I'm not sure how much of the last run up in oil prices to a $70 base is as a result of the Cyclone Gonu, but I suspect its in there, and that the fine analysts we have here could quantify it.

We are getting1.3mllion barrels of oil per day from the Gulf of Mexico, and some proportion of our total imports of 14.25 MBOPD comes through the region, probably more than 1/3rd. A week's interruption in this is going to be disasterous, and any storm entering the Gulf is likely to interfere massively. As we know, the reserves aren't there. The time for the DOE to make them available as a loan is today to not have a huge problem. And thats not going to happen.
Bob Ebersole

Another wave coming off Africa. Not as much moisture but spinning nicely.

I did call Dean last Friday 3 days before the TD4 designation.

This time of year, all you have to do is look for a spinning low coming of the Cape and then switch to the air moisture image. If the low is surrounded by gray, it's a likely candidate. If the low is surrounded by black, go back to sleep.

TD5 has already transformed in TS Erin. Current course is straight for Corpus Christi.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

I was changing it as you typed it GZ. :)

I am watching the damned radar loop and she's now well north of Corpus Christi in her current movement and if she continues that way she'll come ashore somewhere near Lake Jackson, which puts her in Houston's lap. Now this is not a hurricane or at the very worst a Cat 1 but the question is how much rain will she dump AND will Dean follow her right up the same slot? If Erin soaks the ground to the point that we are having runoff issues in SE Texas and Dean hits as a Cat 3 or better into the same region a few days later, well, we have a small nightmare on our hands here then. And while the plots are way way way preliminary, Dean is shown to come ashore somewhere between Houston and New Orleans as a Cat 3 to Cat 4.

I think the evacuations won't be over once Erin passes but will remain in place until Dean hits and passes. And remember that we are right now at historic lows in gasoline stocks, just barely over MOL. Wait til we have to evacuate east Texas or Louisiana.

Advice to friends here at TOD who live in Texas or Louisiana - FILL UP YOUR TANKS NOW AND KEEP THEM TOPPED OFF FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS!

The last thing you want is to get stranded out of gas if a Cat 4 is bearing down on you.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

I'm from Galveston, about 50 miles N.E. of Freeport/lake Jackson on the"dirty" side of the storm.. The winds aren't ver dangerous from a tropical Storm, but the floods and water can be amazing. In TS Allison about 5 years ago we got as I recall about 30", yes, 2 1/2 ft of rain. There was one in Alvin that gave up nearly 4 ft in a 24 hour period in about 1979.

The main thing to remember, in a bad flood ,stay put. Keep you car parked somewhere above the street. Its not worth it to lose your life or even just your car. Also, If you can't see the curb on a flooded street, don't drive into the water. If their are other cars flooded out on the street, you might not make it either. So just pull up on the sidewalk or the grass on the median, that extra 18" or two feet might make a difference. Flood control designs the streets to hold water so the drainage doesnt get overwhelmed, call Harris County Flood Control today and ask if you don't believe me.

And, don't let the ninnie TV weathermen make you panic. If you aren't in a flood plain and if your house didn't flood during Allison, its unlikely to flood. About 30 people died in that panicked evacuation during Rita, including a friend of mine. He had cancer, got stuck in the traffic on I-10 and died with his wife driving. If he'd stayed home he would have been fine-his house didn't flood. So his wife spent hours sitting in their car with his body, and it could have been avoided. I drove from Galveston to Houston and stayed with my 81 year old father on the 2nd floor of his senior citizens center, as he was too ill to evacuate. I parked my car high in a parking lot of a strip shopping center about a block away, there was no problem.

I was raised in Houston, I've lived on the Gulf Coast all my life. I've never lost a car to flood waters, or been more than inconvenienced Bob Ebersole

Bob, as you know this has been the rainiest summer since mid late 50's. Summer of 79 brought us TD Claudette, Chocolate bayou overflowed and Alvin was flooded. The ground is saturated. The nearest high ground we could find was on 528 near sunset meadows, what a mess that was back then! A little more steady rain falling around Houston will cause flooding.

We should be concerned about the possibility of several GOM storms in succession.

The disruption would be more significant and we don't have very much leeway in Days Forward supply or much above MOLs.

And, even if Dean doesn't enter the US GOM, it has potential to wreak havoc to Canatrell too.

This isn't the peak of the season yet. That will be around Sept 10th.


Well, it seems another "vigorous" wave is exiting Africa right behind Dean... Wheee...


I don't know if I would make fun of a storm potentially named FELIX. Although I am more afraid of GABRIELLE.

Worry about the one named Leanan. :-)

Don't forget that, every time there is a storm, the waters get churned up and cooling of SSTs takes place. It's even possible that Erin will help prevent Dean from becoming a truly huge monster.

The time differential is more than 8 days and TS ERIN isn't consuming that much yet. (The stronger they are the more heat they consume)

So, in this case, I don't think they will affect each other in that way.

The loop current in the center of the gulf is nearly impervious to churn, hence katrina, rita, and many other storms' massive power run-ups as they crossed over it. This effect made them rewrite the models. Normally, a slow hurricane is dampened by its own churn, except in that area where the water is hot, deep.


You can view the models there. Most point Dean hitting south of the Yucatan. However there is models that show it heading north to Jamaica and this is bad as it can plow into the WARM waters of the gulf.

We shall see but there is the models for all interested people. I still am concerned as I look at the historical track records of dean type storms. They usually are violent USA hitting storms.

From Cid in the DB today:

"I have a bad feeling about this one."

Me too.


Note: I posted this a few days ago but its what I thought then. I still have no idea where it is going to go.. But it is some historical ideas of how things go.. I am betting on a Track taking it straight into the GOM be it over Florida or Cuba.

I am more concerned about things like..


Worst Case 60mph forward movement slamming into NYC.

Cape Verde storms always worried me. I posted yesterday I grew up in the Flordia Keys.. They suck and usually rip things apart...

Bermuda High is working against us this year and EXPLOSIVE heat in the oceans.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif And that is SCARY!! its so favorable...

and from PeakTO:

Shell begins hurricane prep


Shell will temporarily shut-in about 5 million cubic feet of gas production per day from the North Padre Island 975 field off the Texas' coast.


TD5 a monster in size...


Not enough time over water to become more than a 55-60mph Tropical Storm, thou.

But, that is a HUGE area to drop massive amounts of rainfall in an already drenched (above flood level) area.

I went over the reasons why to not trust Cid's map of the path of the 1900 Storm, but they can be summed up as the data is from 1900,and only assembled years after the storm. The true fact is its impossible to know the path or the track of something this big, or more than to give guesses even today.

The Shell shut in data is obviously suspect too. 5,000,000 cubic ft.is only 5,000 mcf. Thats pretty low for a platform offshore, just barely commercial for an onshore field of a company the size of Shell-only about $300K a year after royalty and ad valorem taxes with a 1/8th royalty at a gas price of $6.70 per thousand. That won't pay the crew costs.
If its the production platform I'm thinking about, it has 3 men plus a cook and rotates every 2 weeks. So thats pay for 8 guys plus their food, crew boat out and back, and office support staff on 300 grand net revenue a year. No way. Bob Ebersole

We've already had a couple of bands of showers in Galveston this AM. It looks like they're from the tropical depression on the NOAH map.Thanks, Prof!
Bob Ebersole


5,000 MCFPD is no big deal for offshore production, but the revenue per year, after royalty, before operating costs, would be about $10.7 million per year.

In a previous incarnation I wrote about the three biggest hurricanes of the 21st century. Yup, we're seven years into the century and they've already occurred. Katrina, Rita, and Wilma did not make the A list ...


Is there a place where hurricanes get discussed like peak oil gets covered here?

I am a big fan of http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=home

Weather nerds galore.

Storm2k http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/index.php, more weather nerds than you can shake a stick at.

To be honest, I'd be more surprised if we were seven years into the century and the three biggest hurricanes hadn't occured.:)

True. Cute but true.

Of more relevance, Hurricane Wilma was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Rita was the third most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Katrina also falls in the top ten. So not only have we had some of the oddest hurricanes as noted over at DailyKOS, but we've also had some of the most powerful storms ever recorded in any century, just in the last few years.

But hey, it's just the weather, right? Ignore that global warming behind the curtain over there. After all, the reality of Lloyd's of London and Berkshire-Hathaway both raising off-shore oil company insurance rates by 400% couldn't have anything to do with the preponderance of more powerful storms lately, could it?

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

Prof G, Editors, TODers -

I'm surely stating the obvious that as the next days and week(s) unfold, that on a hurricane thread like this one, that TOD work aggressively to provide it's usual high quality data aggregation (E.g. Gonu; these storms; - it's great), but stress the need for dissemination of preparedness information to the local population. It is a public service to which TOD has enormous ground-level resources. Starting with GreyZone's suggestion at the top of page.

By way of just one simple example, TODers in potential target regions could help monitor and post here how well the local radio, press, and TV coverage is providing appropriate information. Ditto local and State offices. Push all reasonable buttons.

I know this straddles the line of alarmist accusations by outsiders (that in itself could be examined in the posts) - certainly the still-fresh memories of 2005 cannot allow us to not take any and every opportunity to explain, persuade, cajole, you know, strategies, as many as possible, to avoid anything like that unbelievable tragedy.

GOM posters – maybe you're the leaders here as to what is practical and what is not to do. I don't care if the storm tracks north sooner and we're looking at FL or an outer banks target. It's all relevant and can be useful in other regions.

As I said, I'm stating the obvious so let me apologize for any holier than thou rant; you've perhaps said as much and I missed it. But for the sake of those who may in the near future have great need, consider that we keep these priorities in the posts.

A few days back in the posts of the How Well Prepared for an Oil Shock contribution, one found mention of kindness and altruism. These are certainly qualities that helped save lives in 2005 by otherwise unrelated individuals. (My own experiences flash back to the I880 freeway collapse following 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and those who selflessly risked life/limb to try and save those horribly trapped people.) May this be the case should these storms develop into major hurricanes and make landfall.

Drilling Activity Hits New High in Ultra-Deep Gulf of Mexico


Is anybody else noticing the latest Dean track is taking it right to Cantarell?

Just how vulnerable are Mexico's oil installations? Is this something to be worried about?

Check out what the GFDL model has for Dean for Aug 20th:


Friday morning update:

They now have it as a CAT 5 heading straight for Galveston!