More from Jeff Masters:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Thank you , Professor Goose. I think that the cyclone coverage was a high water mark for theoildrum. The only flaw I saw was in our post mortem work, I'm not sure how much of the last run up in oil prices to a $70 base is as a result of the Cyclone Gonu, but I suspect its in there, and that the fine analysts we have here could quantify it.

We are getting1.3mllion barrels of oil per day from the Gulf of Mexico, and some proportion of our total imports of 14.25 MBOPD comes through the region, probably more than 1/3rd. A week's interruption in this is going to be disasterous, and any storm entering the Gulf is likely to interfere massively. As we know, the reserves aren't there. The time for the DOE to make them available as a loan is today to not have a huge problem. And thats not going to happen.
Bob Ebersole

TD5 has already transformed in TS Erin. Current course is straight for Corpus Christi.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

We should be concerned about the possibility of several GOM storms in succession.

The disruption would be more significant and we don't have very much leeway in Days Forward supply or much above MOLs.

And, even if Dean doesn't enter the US GOM, it has potential to wreak havoc to Canatrell too.

This isn't the peak of the season yet. That will be around Sept 10th.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/2007hurricaneupdate3b.jpg

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

You can view the models there. Most point Dean hitting south of the Yucatan. However there is models that show it heading north to Jamaica and this is bad as it can plow into the WARM waters of the gulf.

We shall see but there is the models for all interested people. I still am concerned as I look at the historical track records of dean type storms. They usually are violent USA hitting storms.

From Cid in the DB today:

"I have a bad feeling about this one."

Me too.

and from PeakTO:

Shell begins hurricane prep

http://blog.nola.com/tpmoney/2007/08/shell_begins_hurricane_prep.html

Shell will temporarily shut-in about 5 million cubic feet of gas production per day from the North Padre Island 975 field off the Texas' coast.

and

TD5 a monster in size...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Not enough time over water to become more than a 55-60mph Tropical Storm, thou.

But, that is a HUGE area to drop massive amounts of rainfall in an already drenched (above flood level) area.

In a previous incarnation I wrote about the three biggest hurricanes of the 21st century. Yup, we're seven years into the century and they've already occurred. Katrina, Rita, and Wilma did not make the A list ...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/18/05557/9447

Is there a place where hurricanes get discussed like peak oil gets covered here?

Prof G, Editors, TODers -

I'm surely stating the obvious that as the next days and week(s) unfold, that on a hurricane thread like this one, that TOD work aggressively to provide it's usual high quality data aggregation (E.g. Gonu; these storms; - it's great), but stress the need for dissemination of preparedness information to the local population. It is a public service to which TOD has enormous ground-level resources. Starting with GreyZone's suggestion at the top of page.

By way of just one simple example, TODers in potential target regions could help monitor and post here how well the local radio, press, and TV coverage is providing appropriate information. Ditto local and State offices. Push all reasonable buttons.

I know this straddles the line of alarmist accusations by outsiders (that in itself could be examined in the posts) - certainly the still-fresh memories of 2005 cannot allow us to not take any and every opportunity to explain, persuade, cajole, you know, strategies, as many as possible, to avoid anything like that unbelievable tragedy.

GOM posters – maybe you're the leaders here as to what is practical and what is not to do. I don't care if the storm tracks north sooner and we're looking at FL or an outer banks target. It's all relevant and can be useful in other regions.

As I said, I'm stating the obvious so let me apologize for any holier than thou rant; you've perhaps said as much and I missed it. But for the sake of those who may in the near future have great need, consider that we keep these priorities in the posts.

A few days back in the posts of the How Well Prepared for an Oil Shock contribution, one found mention of kindness and altruism. These are certainly qualities that helped save lives in 2005 by otherwise unrelated individuals. (My own experiences flash back to the I880 freeway collapse following 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and those who selflessly risked life/limb to try and save those horribly trapped people.) May this be the case should these storms develop into major hurricanes and make landfall.

Is anybody else noticing the latest Dean track is taking it right to Cantarell?

Just how vulnerable are Mexico's oil installations? Is this something to be worried about?