Great googly-moogly. TOD server is choking today. I don't know what's wrong, but something is.

There was an interesting study I posted a link to awhile back. It was about Mexican immigrants. They come to the U.S., and become significantly wealthier...but much less happy. Apparently, Mexicans tend to be much happier than USans. As Mexicans assimilate into US culture, they become more similar to us. Psychologically was well as economically.

The happiest people in the world are Nigerians. Money really doesn't buy happiness.

Not that I expect that to turn people away from money. Heck, I know something like 3 out of 5 lottery winners end up bankrupt in five years, and many wish they'd never won. Some even give the money back. But I still want a chance to test it for myself! ;-)

FWIW, I also would say I am a pretty happy person. Even though many here consider me a doomer. ;-) I'm a technophile, but I know, from personal experience, that technology is not necessary for happiness. I've lived overseas without electricity or running water. Is it less convenient? Hell, yeah. But it really has nothing to do with happiness. You get used to it very quickly.

The absolute level of happiness of the US population is not very sensitive to macroeconomic variables.

Wrong.

Happines peaked just as per annum increases in per-capita energy consumption peaked here in the U.S.:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/OriginalArticles/EnergyHappiness.html

Please note: it's the amount of increase, not the total amount that appears to be operative here.

As far as my happiness, I'm an uber-doomer and I'd rank my level of happiness as a "7.5" on a scale of 1-to-10.

Money may not buy happiness, but it will sure rent it for awhile.

I had a friend who won a $20k scratch-off and it ruined his life. He took the money and spent it gambling at a Louisiana casino, didn't give any to his wife. Disgusted with him after 20 years of marriage while he held only irregular jobs, she divorced Gary. Gary took to living in a taxicab and driving, got cancer and died a couple of years ago homeless and destitute. But he sure was happy for a week until the money was gone.Bob Ebersole

This is a plot of the US Personal Saving Rate (which appears to basically be a cash flow metric) versus Brent crude oil prices. It's normalized. In both cases the 2000 value = 100.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PSR_Brent.png

A number of studies that I have read indicate that your happiness is not driven by your gross income in nominal dollars, it is driven by your relative standing among your peers and community.

For example, if you are the "richest of the poor" (your relative standing among your peers/social circle is higher than others), you tend to be more happy; even though in the big picture, your still poor.

Or, if you are the "poorest rich person, in a rich community", your happiness will be less because you are always comparing yourself relative to your peers/social circle; even though in this case amoung the total population, your still rich.

Likewise, if some event (e.g. peak oil) causes everyone's living standards to be reduced by X amount with all things else being held equal, then one's relative standing among thier peers/social circle will remain the same and we would expect that their happiness would remain basically the same. Kind of the effect "everyone is in the same boat".

If someone had the time and data, they should look at happiness during the great depression. I would guess that happiness was relatively the same because among one's peer group and social circle, everyone was dealing with the same difficulties.

Although I'm seriously concerned about the impact of Peak Oil and abrupt climate change, I rate myself as very happy. Why? Good health, good friends, good relationships with children and grandchildren, meaningful activities such as writing and sailing, achievable goals and purposes in life, adequate income, good memories.

I worry about the future for my children and grandchildren, but the best I can do now is to let them know what I think and feel. I do not think that my grandchildren are doomed to a miserable existence because of Peak Oil, but I do think in economic terms they will lead lives far more restricted than my life has been. I think they have a good chance for happy and fulfilled lives without being able to hop on a jet to anywhere or to go on an inexpensive 5,000 mile trip by automobile.

From the age of six, all of my children and grandchildren have been riding bicycles, and though they don't ride as much as I do, eventually they probably will ride much more. All of my children and grandchildren (even the two and a half year old) can reason fairly well, and they all recognize limits. I've done what I can to give my children a good launch into life, and if they must sail through rough seas, I think their chances are as good as anybody's and better than most people's.

Research in the EU tends to show (and one has to say *tends* because such data, that is self-reports in a pre-set questionnaire, is fraught with difficulties, as pointed out in the top post) that income affects happiness when it is low, well below, or somewhat below, the median. (Negatively; above that no effect is found.) I can’t think of a paper that analyses this effect in detail, it is of course very cumbersome to do and probably not worthwhile.

I know that in CH the tipping point is at about 4,000 ch f a month (average salary is close to 5). And even there, the effect is ‘significant’ - but that says nothing about the importance of the variable, simply that it does play a role.

Of course, it is the comparison itself that hurts, not the absolute. And ppl’s self social rating plays a tremendous role - eg. in the US the belief in social advancement remains high (erroneously), almost everyone thinks they are ‘middle class’, etc.

Common sense tells one what makes ppl happy. Mac Mansions, sports cars, diamond rings, and Mexican maids do not. Work that pays properly, is carried out in a good atmosphere, friends, sexy lovers / a happy family life, ties with community, music (etc.) self realization, etc. do.

Lastly, the ‘West’ has developed a ‘happiness’ cult, - see the psychs. who try to measure it on linear scales. (Categories would be more useful and sensible, eg. for those interested in the prevention of teenage suicide.)

Other societies focus on other dimensions.

What's up with "not applicable"? All of the sudden it jumps from zero to 1393.

I would probably put down not applicable since I am not really sure what happiness is.

There is also some evidence that there is a happiness gene. Some people just seem happy naturally without a lot of effort, good luck, or any other external factor. For myself, I have found I have had to work at it, although not reallly knowing what it is.

Once I gave up, I became happier, although still not sure what it is.

I dream and work for a low carbon world. If achieved, would I be more happy? Not sure, as I would tend to just start thinking about the next problem down the list.

I had some big successes lately in the carbon arena. I was somewhat giddy for a few days, with little spurts of what might be called happiness. But like drugs, it wore off.

Perhaps the correct word for my usual state of mind is stoicism.

Another phenomenon relates to the stock market. A percentage decrease in their portfolio makes people feel more unhappy than the increase in happiness from the same percentage gain. My guess, however, based on my experience, is that both effects pretty much wear off after awhile. The bottom line is that you can't take it with you.

I think it would be fun to win a big lottery but doubt it would really make me any more happy. It would be great to have a bunch of money to further renewable energy, including giving grants away for people to install things like solar and buy more efficient vehicles.

A better correlation than this would be to look at the price of oil and the traditional political polling question of whether the country is right track or wrong track. That historically has correlated fairly closely. The right track wrong track number across all polls today is historically unprecedented, only late 70s is close.

Hello TODers,

Tourists visiting the Grand Canyon are absolutely delighted and thrilled to stand near the cliff. A very small percentage are willing to safely hike to the bottom. Consider Peak Everything and Climate Change as the force that will cause most to plummet from this lofty height-- Happy Campers they will not be.

My hope is that Peakoil Outreach will help massive numbers of people metaphorically realize that the best chance for their survival is to hike down to the Colorado River to grow food and drink water. The major drawback to this plan is that Phantom Ranch is truly a realistic Overshoot-name.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_Ranch

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Great piece Stuart. Addressing questions like these is central to peak oil solutions/adaptation.

Question: Since we are geared towards relative comparisons versus absolute, how would the happiness graph look compared to GDP growth instead of absolute GDP?? I'll bet there is more of a relationship, (especially if we could somehow include the 1920s and 1903s.)

As long as people have basic needs met, and perceive the current time period is better than than the last (hour, day, week, year, etc) and that the future will be better than the current, happiness should abound. Which suggests how we define WHAT is better from one period to the next is the key issue - GDP/DJIA will not be the benchmark for our children.

I agree with the conclusion: happiness can't be correlated with economic variables such as per capita GDP, or per capita median income.

If this were true, then Nigerians, Tibetan monks, or any so-called "primitive" peoples or "tribal" societies could ever have been, or ever will be, happy.... unless they meet & conform to our own preconceived Western measures of wealth & survival/living standards. Technically, it is possible to live like Tarzan on subsistence food-water-shelther levels, and still be happy.

In addition, social status comparison as a determiner of happiness, that is a flawed argument as well. Not all countries, cultures, or individuals, live by the tenet of "Keeping-Up-With-the-Jones" (or Stay-Ahead-of-Everybody- Else, which is the case for the US as a whole), falsely believing that such is the path to happiness. Those that do so, whether due to cultural "norm" or individual choice, actually end up severely limiting their own opportunities for happiness. But they refuse to believe that their own philosophy is producing their own unhappiness, and cannot imagine the happiness that comes from the freedom from social comparison - or the happiness that comes from sharing.

IMO, these points are essential to Peak Oil since it is the majority of oil "consumers" who believe their happiness depends on maintaining their individual lifestyles/incomes/assets etc, when it clearly does not. Any "decline" is perceived as a "loss", when in actuality, they could very well be considered "gains".

That, and the tendency of "modern" human beings to have such complete and blind faith in their own short-sighted ability to solve all problems technologically.

The approach of peak oil has not had a large effect on happiness so far.

I'm not sure any of the ~4500 respondents in 2006 would even know about peak oil. That's a pretty small sample size and if selected correctly would represent a fair number of individuals seen on the 'jay walking' portion of the Tonight show. Guess it's a start though...

Many things contribute to happiness:
Money, Sex, and Happiness: An Empirical Study

This paper studies the links between income, sexual behavior and reported happiness. It uses recent data on a random sample of 16,000 adult Americans. The paper finds that sexual activity enters strongly positively in happiness equations. Greater income does not buy more sex, nor more sexual partners. The typical American has sexual intercourse 2-3 times a month. Married people have more sex than those who are single, divorced, widowed or separated. Sexual activity appears to have greater effects on the happiness of highly educated people than those with low levels of education. The happiness-maximizing number of sexual partners in the previous year is calculated to be 1. Highly educated females tend to have fewer sexual partners. Homosexuality has no statistically significant effect on happiness. Our conclusions are based on pooled cross-section equations in which it is not possible to correct for the endogeneity of sexual activity. The statistical results should be treated cautiously.

I guess I'm a little surprised the chimp didn't mention this :-)

The Economist recently showed a map of world happiness:

I think we've all been mislead by the US Declaration of Independence where everyone is guaranteed "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" as an inalienable right.

First, if you are pursuing anything, that mean's you don't have it, its an elusive goal. The I Ching, the Chinese ancient text suggests that its a product of living an ethical life, where a person does his(or her) duty toward their family and society. Monetary goals are not mentioned, probably because the text was written before money was common.

I find, examining my life, that I require few things to make me happy beyond a simple living, but I do need certain attitudes and standards. I'm happiest when I have:

1. good work, something which I feel is good for me and useful to others
2. people to love, and people to love me. But my love for others is the important part
3. some goals that I am working towards
4. self-examination reveals I've been doing my duty, pay my debts, act in a truthful, kind and honorable fashion
5. something that makes me think, that gives me a sense of wonder and learning
6. a creative outlet

I see my duties as being a good father to my son, a good brother to my sisters, giving good value for the money I recieve from employers, and a good member of society.

None of this excludes any society on this planet at any time in human history. I suspect lots of people will be happy in a crash if they can just do these things. Duties are often not pleasant, I can't say I enjoyed wiping a friend's butt as she died of cancer, or being with her as the cancer ate her brain and she wasn't the person I loved but for brief moments at the end. But after her death was over and the pain behind me, I was proud that I did my duty as I saw it. And as my wife died of cancer about 17 years ago, I could hardly stand to be around her, her friends provided those offices. I still feel badly about how I treated her-but I think I learned from the process, and that's why I behave differently now.
Bob Ebersole

Hi all, I'm a TOD-addicted lurker, this is my first post: I don't have the insight most of you around here do.
That said, I would love to see a the increased occurrence of Western people taking antidepressants laid against this income-happiness plot. It seems pretty interesting that the relative volatility of pre-1995 happiness levels has stabilized for some reason...hmm.

this is your warning-\
four minute warning
-Radiohead

From memory, the Economist used to talk about 'peak happiness' occurring when GDP reached $10,000 per person. Beyond that it's downhill as the effort required to chase more GDP eats into happiness - longer working hours, higher house prices etc..

Interestingly, the two things that stood out did so because of their absence of comment, in the keypost, in the comments here on TOD, and in not seeming to be of any statistical notice in the charts:

(a) 9-11-01. The event that at the time seemed so big frankly seems to have had no real effect on American happiness, sense of security or.....anything.

(b) The fact that we have now for a half decade been involved in the longest, bloodiest, and more doubtful war (from the U.S. point of view) since Vietnam has had no noticible effect on anything.

Is it possible that we as people in the U.S. have become so "ego-centric" that big world events that occur and have real impact on the American nation really just pass right by most Americans as just another odd news story?

Brief aside: I recall going to an Orchestral Concert (The Louisville Orchestra) in 2002, and one of the pieces being played was a world premiere symphonic set, arranged to the metaphor of the four seasons (ala Vivaldi's chamber pieces), in which there was a long self contained symphony for each season (beginning with spring, then summer, autumn, and winter). This was in 2002, and the 4 season set was said to have been under composition for 2 years, beginning in 2000, and finishing the set in mid 2002 just before it was premiered.

I listened to the whole set eagerly, but was especially interested in the autumn set....what would the composer do to commemorate 9/11? Of course, he would do something, it was just too big an event for an artist, an American artist in 2002 not to do something (I tried to guess....a silent break in the music at just the right time, better, twin breaks, one for each tower....or I thought more interesting would be two drum beats or strikes with the rest of the orchestra silent, one for each tower.....or twin blasts of horns....set one behind the other...or any of a dozen other artistic ways to honorably note the event that for the rest of our lives would be attached to an American September....

Here is what an American composer of some reputation did in 2002, to artistically mark the event of 9/11: NOTHING. There was no attempt to even recognize it had happened. No musical rememberence, no attempt at symbolism, no mention in the notes in the program.....NOTHING.
Astonishing to me to this day. The war is being handled the same way.... at most as a political spitting match, or a television continuing series....no real recognition of this as a major event in American history and American cultural life....

Emerson said, "The unexamined life is not worth living." That alone may explain much unhappiness in the United States during this great and possibly last gilded age.

Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

If you're interested in the connection between social mood (which is a far deeper concept than happiness or the lack of it) and relative prosperity, you might enjoy History's Hidden Engine (free video download).

IMO collective optimism and confidence are drivers of economic success (because they are self-fullfilling prophecies to some extent, as are pessimism and lack of confidence), while happiness has all too often been reduced to immediate personal gratification. The crucial importance of optimism and confidence for financial liquidity (from which economic consequences follow) is being illustrated in the financial markets daily.

Subprime coming home to roost?

A rash of bankruptcies at subprime lenders prompted a market wobble in February and March but traders swiftly decided the problem was contained. Equity markets across the world continued to rally, while the credit market remained phenomenally high in historical terms, thanks in large part to the growth of credit derivatives. These prompted optimism that it had become easier to spread risk and so it was justifiable that even the riskiest companies could obtain credit cheaply.

That mood of optimism is over. Fear now rules the credit markets, where the effective cost of ensuring against a default, in both Europe and the US, has increased by more than half in barely a month. A steady drip of bad news has prompted fears that the subprime debacle could trigger a credit crunch, raising the cost of financing worldwide as investors are forced to sell healthy investments to make good their losses.

There is a great deal to the topic of psychologcal drivers for collective human behaviour, and emergent properties at the population level (ie herding behaviour), but I'm afraid you haven't really scratched the surface here.

Edit:

For an academic take on the subject, I would recommend The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective by Robert R Prechter Jr and Wayne D Parker in The Journal of Behavioral Finance (2007), Vol 8 (#2), pgs 84-108. (I can send you a copy if you're interested.)

EB picked up this story, and added a comment expressing surprise that so many of us rated ourselves happy or very happy.

I'm surprised anyone would be surprised by that. I think most people are reasonably happy. And I wouldn't expect peak oil to have much effect on that, at least long term.

Much research has shown that people tend to have a "happiness setpoint." Events will shift it short-term, but you eventually return to your natural setpoint. Even things you would think would be life-changing are not. The job of your dreams, marrying Mr. or Ms. Right, winning the lottery. Or, on the bad side, a bitter divorce, the death of a family member, becoming a paraplegic, going bankrupt. They may change your happiness for a couple of years, but not permanently.

Tanith Lee called this "the bitterness of joy." The bitterness of joy lies in the knowledge that it cannot last. Nor should joy last beyond a certain season, for, after that season, even joy would become merely habit.

I think in our discussion we are forgetting
another factor which is the effort to get that
money. Certainly you would be more happy to
get $1000 per month without doing any effort
for it than if you have to work for it. The
more work you have to do for it (longer hours,
tougher job) the more unhappy you would be. It
also explain one of the reasons why children are
always so happy.

I have observed that many middle-class people have contracted the diease of "not enoughness". Not enough time, money, sleep, sex etc. The only thing people seem to have enough of is bad food, bad televison and bad attitudes! Complaining seems to have become epidemic. I agree with you memmel, gratefullness has become a mythological concept that few can grasp. Even though carrots have been placed in front of people, they say it's not the "right" carrot so there-fore it's not good enough. Bring on the anti-depressents! Better to be numb than to experience life at all, life can be sooo painful! Most forget - life is supposed to get a little uncomfortable from time to time, otherwise how would we know when we were really having a blast? My Grama has always said, "Be grateful for what you have, there is always someone worse off than you and it can all be gone as quickly as it came." Smart lady - glad she's my Grama!

Adult human minds are the most difficult things to change in the world - and it is our minds that most need to be changed in order to avert peak oil consequences.

The "More, Bigger, Better = More Happiness" consumption mindset is one of the original causes of peak oil, global warming, and other human-induced disasters waiting to happen.

"Modern,civilized" human beings primarily consider their own happiness first, and consider the happiness of the world second - if at all. Most individuals, corporations, & governments don't really care about the world - so naturally, the result is an uncared for world. This is why the state of the world is as it is today - neglected, deterioriating, and on the verge of collapse.

Only when individuals, corporations, & governments prioritize the world before themselves, does humanity have a chance of survival. Attempts at technological revolutions will either fail - or they'll succeed, which only fuel our hunger for consumption. So a mental revolution is needed. Consume less, use less, drive less, spend less - and share more. Otherwise, people & institutions will continue to selfishly pursue their own relative definitions of happiness, at the expense of sacrificing the long-term good of the world.

Most people do not see that their own survival is directly tied in with the survival of the world - that the interest of the world & their own self-interest are ultimately the same.

But low consumption & "simple/frugal living" (plus lower corporate profits) is considered by the vast majority of citizens in "developed countries" as African-esque material poverty, which is why it is highly unlikely that Change in the US will occur in time to avert peak oil or global warming consequences.

We think it's normal for Africans, Indians, & Chinese to want to be "rich" like us & to desire the "American Way of Life"... when it's our American Way that is unsustainable. So in actuality, perhaps it is we who should take leadership and make progress towards a low consumption way of life.