Steve Andrews of ASPO on CNBC

Steve Andrews, ASPO co-founder, discusses the latest IEA report with John Kilduff (Man Financial energy analyst and CNBC contributor). Cheers Steve!

Also, there is no "controversy" to teach, but here is a good recent article by Steve decimating the pure idiocy of Raymond Learsy (and others):

(Originally published on The HuffingtonP but please don't go there--it will only bolster Arianna's repugnant ego.)

Similar absurdity from a few years ago--history repeating itself--except, this time it is Ken D. against someone that gives the frivolous Learsy a run for his money, that's right, Peter Huber:,9171,1122019-2,00.html

I get the feeling that the "Saudi" debate is beginning to gain traction. Maria seems to be excited about all the news- making powers PO will bestow upon her ratings, and goldfish lips. I wager that we'll soon see Mr. Simmons on CNBC debating with Yergin, that'll be a pisser...

Its the size of the tap not the size of the tank, possible bumper sticker?

Be good to see more of Matt Simmons on MSM he knows what he is talking about

Great quote!
Steve really nailed it.

I like that bumper sticker slogan! make some!

Credit goes to Jean Laherrere, I believe.

Don't quote me on that!

"It's the size of the tap not the size of the tank" reminds me of "it's not how big it is but what you can do with it" :=)

mr f,

Due you make a habit of denigrating people that you do not like?

One wonders at your snipe at Huffington.

How many constructive criticism websites have you founded lately?

HuffingtonP is constructive criticism? Last time I checked it was a promotional tool, but hey, what isn't on god's green earth? It's just another website amongst a myriad of liberal websites that do nothing but make themselves feel good. It's as bad as the National Review, or worse, The Weekly Standard. Commentary is maybe better.

The O'Rielly Report
Hardball with Chris Matthews
Drudge Report

I sense a pattern here--mindlessness. That is to say, the diffusion of liberalism by the dilution of its ideals into the same type of extremist tactics the right makes use of, which the left is now attempting to use to disengeniously somehow prop-up Democrats. The Left uses this to its own detriment. HuffP is only one of many examples... I know this isn't supposed to be a political website (even if many of the issues involving PO dwell directly on politics)--I only made the snide remark because the Energy Bulletin article linked to the Learsy piece and was obviously published in HuffP in response to Learsay's drivel. I am a bleeding heart liberal who is simply voicing an opinion.

prole, you have a problem with me stating my opinion of Arianna Huffington? I'll do it again, then, because I like to be disobedient. She is fake. Her website of celebrities is a pox on liberalism. There is sincerity, concern, and then their is faking it for your ego. Perhaps I'm a bigot, and I cede that to you. I just think the "liberalism" and "conservatism" of this modern era is so overflowing with fakeness that it is disheartening to pile on in a partisan manner, since it takes a bipartisan effort to achieve this level of duplicity and cultural languish... IMHO the strong critical opinion against both parties from respective partisan sides are to a large degree so accurate--which is what creates the self-propogating feedback loop of political polizarization (along with, of course, a myriad of social and political issues which no one wants to, or can possibly, address...) There is an inability to stop bickering and start action precisely because the Democrats are unwilling, or don't have the power base (or both) to really push for change--for PO, let alone in Iraq--although they are sort of trying and it's not really clear what they would do if given commanding power of the war (the executive branch). We all go and push ourselves into our preconceived boxes of ideology because of childish indulgence epitomized by Huffington and her hideous website. I remember the day it first "came online", just a few years ago... Oh god, I thought, here is another lame liberal website which will do nothing to help the Left except allow Arriana Huffington to cast a wider social network to throw dinner parties for... The Carter Admin killed the real "liberalism" when it went Carter Doctrine and everything got mucked up with Iran, seeds planted in the 50s, during the Reagan 80s the Left creates the DLC to move rightward, the right moves further to the right, in anticipation of PO after Bush Sr. loses... Henceforth from Carter, rabid-eyed conservatives have been able to essentially run this country for the last three decades (save 8 years of corporate DLC blow-jobing and the occasional scud missile--see, the criticism is accurate, and they have the dress... whether it is constructive, you're right, an entirely different matter.) Liberals shouldn't hide behind the fact that "our party", the Democrats, as Lucy was repeatedly told, "has som explain' to do!"... Yes, the republicans are also frauds (creationist, science denigrating ones at that).

Do you want to defend Learsy or Huber? Go right ahead, lets start a reading club--it's going to be mighty boring because guess what? They're both goddamn idiots, period. You know it, and I know it. We all know it. How's that for denigrating? [Casting out some hearty flamebait, I wonder if I'll get a bite.]

And, for the record, in case anyone else wanted to know aside from you, I have founded zero "constructive criticism websites...lately"--nor do I plan to. And does this world need more "constructive criticism websites"? I don't think so. By your implication, aren't the celebs et al over at HuffyP already taking care of that for me? For now, I think TOD churns out enough constructive criticism--and I'm glad we're both here to do our part. :-D

Step 1 - Deny
Step 2 - Ridicule
Step 3 - Report as fact

Looks like the PO topic is right on track. Unfortunately, it's too late. I'm still thinking of getting a Hummer to tow behind my motorhome. I can finance it with zero down and put the gas on my home equity line.

Steve did a fantastic job and hardly looked like the usual Dr. Emmitt Brown (Back to the Future) they normally trot out. What was missing was the big so what?

Instead, maybe I'll get the 6000 lb Chevy Tahoe Hybrid they rolled out at the All Star Game tonight. It's a sacrifice, I know, but I want to do my part.

I wish we could attach sound. "Were dooooomed!"

I'm gonna miss peanut butter.

Yes, I realize I'm replying to myself. I thought my last line would make a nice topic.

What are you going to miss most when the trucks stop running?

As a Atlantic Canadian, I'll miss the fresh fruit (especially the citrus and melons) year-round. We grow Apples, pears, berries, some cherries, but they all ripen at about the same time, and only the apples really store well in non-frozen form.

Talk about a spin doctor, Like Gomer Pyle used to say: Deny, Deny,Deny!
John Kilduff mentioned "there is a lot of oil coming on line in my view. then goes on to say " I don't subscribe to oil peaking, coming out of the ground uhhh anytime soon." then goes on to say "we are already seeing Saudi getting 8.5 mbd to 10mdd and likely to get to 12mbd within this 5 years". then goes on to mention world oil findings and then throws out "Plus there was this HUGE find in the Gulf of Mexico" (jack). Oil is popping up all over the world.

Talk about a spin doctor!
Should his stage name really be Baghdad Bob of oil?

What a stark difference between the guys. DAymn, Steve Andrews seemed a bit more "fact based".

This IEA report seems to be the biggest tipping point towards mainstream recognition that we have a problem that I have seen to date.

I don't post a lot here (waaaaaay intimidated by the energy scholars at this site!) but really - this is pretty huge.

So CNBC's first response is that it'll be okay due to recession? Some comfort.

I noticed that too... we should be fine, because we will be in a recession.


BTW, I will miss coffee.

Oh - we will get coffee - instant Mexican but we will get coffee.

quote: "recession will enable the oil industry to catch on"

but for the last 3 years we heard:

"high prices will enable the oil industry to bring on new supply"

There are obviously three ways to solve PO:

1. high prices => demand destruction
2. high prices => more investment => more supply
3. high prices => more alternatives

it does not seem that option 2) or 3) are happening fast enough (or at all). Let's not forget also that from an oil exporter standpoint:

rising prices + declining production = declining prices + growing production

So they have little incentives to follow 2).

Everyone here is ignoring the fact that Saudi production will rise, according to John Kilduff, from 8.5 to 10 and then 12 million bpd by 2012.

I've been wanting to post this for a while, showing that Saudi production has stabilised around 8.5 mmbpd C+C for the last 4 months. So where next? The moment of truth will soon be with us. I still expect to see Saudi production rising temporarily towards 9.5 mmbpd in the course of the next 12 months, but the drag of falling production in Ghawar will IMO make it difficult to exceed earlier highs. Global recession to the rescue?

Some nice soundbites Steve - 3D Starbucks and Venezuelan wildcards!

And some Peak Reality from the Norwegian Energy Man - 23 countries already past peak...

I noticed that he said that about The Kingdom. He said it with great confidence. I have disputed some of Stuart's claims — based on uncertainty — so the CNBC guy is not entitled to the projections he made.

He also cited the "large discovery in the Gulf of Mexico", but my latest treatment of the subject over at ASPO-USA demonstrates that GOM production is in trouble or uncertain again, including Jack, which I assume he was referring to.

Maybe the CNBC "energy expert" ought to acquire some expertise. Perhaps he doesn't want to be a bothersome, knowledgeable pest like us.

Euan: An "economist" should explain that first chart. The sale price of the product goes up 6X from 1998 and the amount supplied goes up 6%. Therefore, you only need a sale price of $425/barrel to get another 6% of product supplied (advanced economic theory).

Guys, you need to factor in Texas. According to the Texas State Geologist, while we may not be able to equal our peak production of 3.5 mbpd, we can with--drumroll please--better technology, significantly increase our production (from below one mbpd currently). So, I think that we can confidently add about 2 mbpd of additional "production capacity" from Texas.

Steve sounded great and looked good. My only criticism is his voice seemed a little nervous. I'm really very encouraged that peak oil has made the mainstream. I hope that he invited the CNBC reporters to the October conference in Houston!

As far as criticism of the BS about projects coming on line, the Saudi's raising production, blah, blah, blah-its important to not argue with them over particulars. Thats boring to the average viewer-but the quote "It's not the size of the tank, it's the size of the tap" is great. I also liked the way he covered the resource constraints in Canada, maybe it will start a few questions from the people who finance the expansion.

I give Maria some props for at least giving P.O. a somewhat level platform. THe rest of the estrogen choir is always trying to talk make that beat the market down. Steve did a better job this time than last but still appears a bit nervous. I wish he would have hammered the Jack out of Jack as in we ain't got Jack since nothing is progressing on that front due to cost and complexity that's just a pipe (wet) dream as of now. Also the point that we have almost record oil inventories....well maybe that has something to do with refining capacities as we are barely stumbling by with gas suppplies. There is a correlation. Further on inventory since we are using record amounts of oil each years shouldn't our inventories reflect that. And by the way total petroleum inventories are down 1.3% from a year ago. I get so tired of these lame O excuses not being aggressively addressed by our side as they are always the strawmen set up by the deniers.

Kansas Crude
Since Congress has been threatening to put in a Windfall Profits tax, perhaps higher inventories are being used as a method to mask high profits. The only place the majors have significant onshore production is in the Permian Basin, so if they don't sell that oil until it can be refined, it transfers the profits to the future.
Bob Ebersole