RTE (Ireland) with a High Quality Peak Oil Documentary: Future Shock

Future Shock (running time about 60 minutes) can be found here: http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/av_20070618.html

The write up for the show can be found here: http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/

Good primer.

One word : recommended

It's pretty good - very hiberno-centric obviously. The reaction here in Ireland seems to have been fairly muted so far. A lot of non-peak-oil-aware folks just look on it as scaremongering. George Lee has an undeserved (IMO) reputation in Ireland as a gloom-and-doom merchant but I think he's bang on the money here. Colin Campbell is also featured in the program.

From my own selfish point of view, I don't want a stampede of people selling their cars and buying bikes, at least not until I've sold my own!

It's generally excellent, though a lot of the time it talks about the more distant future - "decades". I liked the bit where Simmons is asked something like "how long to peak oil?" and replies "we might be looking at the past tense". It covers a lot of issues e.g. responses - growing more food in gardens, using little electric cars to get to bus and train depots.

One advantage Ireland has is that it's not that long since most people didn't have cars and lived very locally, also they tend to be a very adaptable people, so could go back to that way again without the sort of trauma you would see in USA (or even UK).

Very true - my own parents and grandparents would have grown much of their own food / kept chickens etc in suburban gardens. This would have been a commonplace. Only problem now is that most new houses have gardens the size of postage stamps. If you live in an apartment, forget it.

Another thing to note about Ireland is that its population - about 4 million - is half of what it was in the 1840s. So the land should be able to support the people...so long as we don't turn it over to ethanol production...

Well Dr. Chaos. The land will easily support the 6 million on the Island of Ireland. Food Production rates in the 1840's, prior to intensive fertiliser usage,were even then sufficient to feed the 8 million people at the time, but the food was exported to Britain,our then colonial master who substantially increasde her military presence in Ireland, to ensure this continued. This is the threat, that the world faces again. Neo colonial states, using other countries for resources.

First rate. Distribute link far and wide.

An xcellent doc on PO!!

Two thumbs up!!

It's interesting to note that during the program the claim is made that the Irish drive more than anybody else in the EU, and even 30% more than the average American. Daily consumption is stated to be about 200,000 barrels. I had to chuckle when I heard that. That's less than 1/100th of US daily consumption. When will an American RTE Television step up to the plate?

Before the famine your average farmer family ate a little pig a little poultry - and they had perhaps one cow - and potatoes, potatoes, potatoes (tillage became necessary with the rise in pop) and not scampi, sushi, yoghourt, crisps, tuna, veal, salami, kiwis, zuchini, etc. etc.

200 k bpd and pop. 4 mil. is .05 barrel a day pp, for Ireland. That is not far below the US, which clocks in somewhere between .06 and .07. Very rough, obviously, just to say that the difference is not tremendous.

I read somewhere that in Ireland 7 out of 10 workers drive to work, which is a perhaps a lot in EU comparison? The important point though is that Ireland burns a lot oil to produce electricity - oil is its primary energy supply (about 60% : EU27 average, 38%).

Ireland uses mostly natural gas for electricity production (about 60%), then coal, and some heavy fuel oil and distillate. Peak Oil will affect the motorist obviously, but not electricity production, unless of course, the supply of gas dries up, or price of gas rockets. The gas comes in from Scotland, and ultimately from Gazprom in Russia I guess...
We are very vulnerable to external shocks.
Also, Ireland's urban planning seems to be based on Los Angeles or something. It's a gigantic big sprawl. That's why most people drive - because they have to.

Ireland uses mostly natural gas for electricity production (about 60%), then coal, and some heavy fuel oil and distillate.

Source please, thank you. (As that is not at all what I gathered from the few reports - Gvmt. - I read - admittedly these often date from 2003, 4, 5..)

(It is true that nat. gas has replaced oil in some measure in the past 7 or so years.)

Look at the publications from http://www.eirgrid.com, Ireland's transmission system operator, particularly the Generation Adequacy report for 2007-2013 (page50). In 2013 about 60% of the generators will run on natural gas or distillate oil - depending on which is cheaper. This is pretty much the same as now. About 20% run on Coal or heavy Fuel Oil, then a small amount on purely distillate oil, plus about 10% hydro and some peat and wind.

Yes, but Ireland has about 1/100th of the population.

Bad moves in a peak-oil climate

The contrast between George Lee's, 'Future Shock: End of Oil' and the following programme, 'Questions and Answers' on RTE 1 last Monday was both pronounced and scary. George Lee was adamant that we are rapidly approaching the end of the oil era, and that Ireland is one of the countries least prepared for this enormous shock. This oil crisis will not be a temporary blip. It will be a permanent feature of our lives and the lives of future generations.

If we wish to avoid enormous hardship, every decision in politics, economics, education and even religion must be viewed through the prism of peak-oil and climate change. We need the focus of something like a wartime crisis to galvanise our efforts to avoid a disaster.

Contrast this with the discussion in 'Questions and Answers', on whether Dick Roche did John Gormley a favour in signing the order to tarmac over the henge at Lismullen on the proposed M3. The chairman and all the participants assumed that oil will be available and relatively cheap into the indefinite future.

Some people might find the image below useful. It is the past and projected growth in the number of cars in Ireland overlaid (in time) on top of the 2004 ASPO global oil production. The interesting thing is during the 1980s when production fellback and there was a recession in Ireland, the number of cars fell too. Since we are now more or less at peak, the big question is will the blue line be followed or will we see the number of cars fall as it similarily tracked production in the 80s.

Note: The forecast figures (blue part) are from the Irish National Roads Authority who are busy building lots of motorways. The historical figures ultimately come from the Irish Central Statistics Office.

I think the answer is obvious but the country is totally unprepared and has spent the wealth of the last few years in creating an infrastructure that demands more driving.

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Being Irish and having flaged this program last week after hearing the presenters interview the morning before i was interested to listen out for radio /work comments next day and was not supprised to hear most people refer to is as doom and gloom mongering and that why worry.Although i beleive the program did not go far enough and spell out the worst case.The presenter gives the false impression that technology will supply an alternative in time.People here have no idea whats comming

Ich bin ein dubliner.


Aye, it's a loovley one. I suggest that people who aren't familiar with the peak oil situation, or who don't believe that it is happening, watch the whole thing. If you are already familiar with Peak Oil, then fast forward to about the 40 minute point and watch the "What If" for the rest of the video.
Someone said "In Ireland, I think 3 out of 4 people drive to work".
As in America, this sounds like a problem, but in fact, is one of the keys to dealing with peak oil. To stop using 3000 lbs of steel to transport 150lbs of human to a job to advertise more jobs to burn more oil can easily be accomplished, but we need to change the paradigms of consumption and 'busy-ness'. Most people are working at jobs that produce nothing useful in the Long Term for humanity. Food is the cheapest necessity we have, yet it is overproduced, and people are still competing for unnecessary work to acquire something we have a surplus of.
What is the Descent Plan? Our view of The Economy as God, burying us under the perpetual growth of perpetual consumption, must change. Instead of looking for ways to 'create' jobs, we should be looking for ways to minimize jobs and maximize leisure time, training ourselves to produce as little as we can, so that we each only work for ourselves and basic needs, rather than for The Economy.
Cooperation and frugality, rather than competition and consumption, should be the rule, not the exception.
"If you want Change, keep it in your pocket. You vote for a faux president every four years, but you vote for real corporations thousands of times each month. Your money is your only real vote."