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DrumBeat: June 19, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 19, 2007 - 9:01am
Gazprom bid to cut off China gas
Russian energy giant Gazprom has asked the government to cancel an agreement to pipe large quantities of gas to China from fields in Siberia.Alexander Ananenkov, the group's deputy chief executive, said plans to deliver 80bn cubic metres of gas a year to China would leave Russia short.
Our power, water and communications utilities are now heavily interdependent and are particularly energy hungry — being unable to withstand interruptions to their energy source for more than a few hours or days at most. The impending peak in the world’s production of oil will have unforeseen consequences to the supply of all utilities that are wide ranging and potentially severe. The Hubbert curve which may be used to predict the supply of oil suggests a gentle decline in the oil flows of around 3% to 6% per year. The consequences of that decline will be anything but gentle and unless action is taken beforehand will potentially result in a simultaneous and catastrophic collapse of all our utilities and along with it our present way of life.
Green Concerns Over the Energy Bill
Environmental groups are anxiously watching three votes this week that could significantly water down the energy bill currently before the Senate. The outcome of the votes will determine whether or not the environmental community supports the legislation drafted by Senate Democrats.
Russia's Thermal Coal Demand Seen Tripling by 2020
Demand for thermal coal in Russia, the world's fifth-largest coal miner, could more than triple by 2020 as the country invests billions of dollars to expand its power network, industry officials said on Monday.Thermal coal supply would rise by more than 50 percent and the proportion of exports in overall output from the world's third-biggest coal exporter would fall, said Vladimir Shchadov, deputy director of Rosenergo, an agency within the Energy Ministry.
Pakistan Shrugs Off US Opposition to Gas Pipeline Project
Pakistan vowed on Monday to go ahead with the US$7 billion Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project despite opposition from the United States.US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher last week reiterated Washington's opposition to the gas pipeline project in Islamabad and advised Islamabad to turn to Central Asia for its energy needs.
"We repeatedly have said that we have energy requirements and we find this pipeline feasible," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasneem Aslam told reporters in Islamabad.
Quenching China's thirst for oil
In the first five months this year, China's net oil import roared to 65.83 million tons, an increase of 11.5 percent from the same period last year. At the same time, China produced 77.51 million tons of oil, a 1.7 percent rise year-on-year.Customs statistics show that from January to May, China imported 67.43 million tons of crude oil, up 9.6 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, it exported 1.6 million tons, down 36.6 percent.
IEA Studies Safety Net for Natural-Gas Supply
The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming nations, may build a "safety net" of natural-gas stockpiles to buttress supply, said the agency's executive director, Claude Mandil.
Gunmen Occupy Nigerian Oil Installation
Unidentified gunmen have occupied an oil pipeline switching center in Nigeria and are preventing local workers and security forces from leaving, company officials said Monday.
Chevron's Nigeria Oil Output Down 42,000 bpd After Attack - Report
Chevron Corp. (CVX) has cut oil output from Nigeria by 42,000 barrels a day following an invasion of its Abiteye flow station, Reuters news agency said Monday.Earlier, Chevron Nigeria Ltd., operator of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company/Chevron Joint Venture, confirmed a group of 20 armed youths invaded the station Sunday.
Iraqi union leader urges opposition to oil law
A proposed law regulating Iraq's oil industry would foster U.S. "hegemony" over the world's third largest oil reserves and Iraqi oil workers are determined to oppose it, an Iraqi union leader said on Monday.
Geopolitics, gold and the oil price
Instability in Nigeria is the present driving force behind oil prices, now back at a nine-month high, while gold seems to have turned a corner with the highly significant changes in the US bond market. But let us not forget that a real spike in both the oil and gold price is very likely to require a particular constellation of geopolitics.
Petrobras Workers Threaten 5-day Strike in July
Workers at state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, may go on a five-day strike beginning July 5, Brazil's main oil workers' union said in a release on its Web site.The council of the federation of Brazilian oil worker unions, or FUP, Sunday unanimously approved a strike that would affect Brazil's oil production, the release said. Petrobras produces more than 95% of Brazil's oil output of about 1.85 million barrels a day.
China welcome to explore Iraqi oil resources
China is welcome to explore oil resources in Iraq as a new law is set to open its oilfields to international companies, the Iraqi ambassador to China said yesterday."We encourage Chinese enterprises to join the multinational competition for exploration of Iraqi oilfields," said Mohammad Sabir Ismail.
Nigeria: Fuel, water scarcity cripple Abeokuta
ECONOMIC activities were practically grounded to a halt in Abeokuta the Ogun State capital yesterday as the fuel scarcity continued to bite harder while water and electricity supplies still remained unavailable.The acute water scarcity, which started in the state capital on Monday last week, worsened the plights of residents, who were also experiencing outage and fuel shortage leaving most people frustrated and stranded.
Mexico Tax Bill Should Include Pemex, Beltrones Says
Mexico's Senate leader, Manlio Fabio Beltrones, said President Felipe Calderon's plan to boost tax collection should also address how to increase resources for state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos by lessoning its tax burden.
Eastern Mediterranean Oil Politics
Oil drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean Sea has emerged as an issue over the past few months following an initiative enacted by the Cypriot government to hand out research and drilling rights for oil reservoirs that might be found deep under the sea, and worth some $500 billion.
Saving Holland: The Netherlands deals with climate change
With much of its land below sea level, the Netherlands is charting a course around ominous climate-change trends.Part II is here.
The Promise of the Blue Revolution
Aquaculture can maintain living standards while averting the ruin of the oceans.
Geological Society of America: The future of hydrocarbons: Hubbert's peak or a plateau?
Due to economics, science, technology, and the increased manufacturing of hydrocarbons from sources other than oil, the world's production of oil and gas in the twenty-first century will not peak sharply but will plateau or gradually decline. The scenario presented here places us among the optimists.
Power cuts spark riots in Pakistan's biggest city
Youths rampaged through Pakistan's biggest city overnight, torching a police booth and erecting blazing barricades to protest 10-hour power cuts - a fresh headache for the government of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.Electricity shortages have struck much of Pakistan just as temperatures top 40 degrees Celsius, forcing businesses to close or throw away perishable products and leaving residents stewing in their homes.
Resentment at the outages has begun boiling over into the streets of Karachi, the country's main port and business capital, where anger is focused on the privatized local power utility.
Pakistan: Sugar mills may be allowed to generate power
The government is expected to allow sugar mills to use furnace oil as co-fuel for power production to overcome the worst ever energy crisis in country’s history. The sugar industry can produce about 2000MW electricity in five years.An earlier initiative by the government to utilise sugar industry’s capacity for power generation about two years ago had failed to materialise because of gas shortages and the government did not consider furnace oil as an alternative fuel at that time. The electricity shortage has become acute now and the government is ready to purchase it at higher tariffs.
Philippines: Shell team to review options
Pilipinas Shell late last year concluded that the environment was far “too overheated to do an economic project, as the cost of raw materials and services increased substantially, resulting in abnormally escalated cost estimates.”...Actual cost of the expansion, according to officials, had gone up by 40 percent due to the huge demand in services and raw materials worldwide.
Petrochemical woes in the pipeline
The European petrochemicals industry is coming under increasing strain from two distinct quarters. First, rich oil-producing Middle East countries and China are investing heavily to capture a bigger share of the world market for these basic chemical products.Second, European regulations, however well-intentioned, are placing a further heavy burden on the continent's big petrochemicals groups. This is making it even harder for them to compete with the new capacity, which will soon be flowing out of the developing world.
Lithuanian parliament backs controversial law on nuclear plant
The Lithuanian parliament gave its backing on Tuesday to a controversial law concerning the construction of a new nuclear power plant, paving the way for final approval next week.The draft law has been written to give a legal framework to the most ambitious energy project the Baltic states have ever attempted: a nuclear power station jointly built by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland.
Oil: Ghana could become 'an African tiger'
Ghana's President John Kufuor says the discovery of the country's first major oil deposit could turn the West African country into an "African tiger"."Even without oil, we are doing so well... With oil as a shot in the arm, we're going to fly," he told the BBC.
Ghana: Akuse High Tension Cable Thief Burnt to Death
THE VOLTA River Authority [VRA] and Electricity Company of Ghana [ECG] apart from struggling to find a lasting solution to the current energy crisis, are also suffering from intermittent cutting of high-tension cables by criminals.Suspects take advantage of the quiet atmosphere often enjoyed during the middle of the day at Akuse and illegally climb the pylons and cut the cables, that supply electricity to Tema and other parts of the country, for sale.
The Friends of the Earth-Ghana has appealed to government to recognise the links between the current energy crisis, the problems of desertification and climate change and the toll they take on national and local economies.
The Mainstreaming of Green Buildings (and Everything Else)
Few people realize that it's the building sector -- not industry or transportation -- responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. The good news is that this vibrant market proves that we can dramatically cut emissions sharply and reap a broad swath of economic and other benefits at the same time. Part of the solution is right in front of us. We can do this.
Lobbies stymie action on energy
Three powerful lobbying forces — automakers, electric utilities and the coal industry — are confounding Democrats' efforts to forge a less-polluting energy policy.Disputes over automobile fuel economy, use of coal as a motor fuel, and requirements for utilities to use more wind or biomass to generate electricity have threatened to stall energy legislation in both the Senate and House.
‘Hot’ gas is hot topic in courts and Congress
As the temperature rises, liquid gasoline expands and the amount of energy in each gallon drops. Since gas is priced at a 60-degree standard and gas pumps don’t adjust for any temperature changes, motorists often get less bang for their buck in warmer weather.Consumer watchdog groups warn that the temperature hike could end up costing consumers between 3 and 9 cents a gallon at the pump.
Iran says won't rule out using oil as a weapon
"We will not start using this tool (of oil) but if others use their tools that they have not put aside to put pressure on negotiations, it is natural that the two sides would discuss all their tools," Kazempour Ardebili said.Asked what would be the impact if Iran stopped its oil exports, Kazempour Ardebili said: "Definitely the market will be faced with a new shock and oil prices will increase strongly."
He added that prices would climb above $100 a barrel.
Argentine industry with no energy for fourth day running
Argentina’s main natural gas and electricity distributors interrupted this Monday for the fourth day running their provision to industry and big consumers to ensure supply to homes following a consumption peak attributed to the polar weather spell covering most of central and south Argentina.
Chavez Announces New Stage of Energy Revolution in Venezuela
During the inauguration of a combined-cycle plant at the Termozulia electric plant in the western state of Zulia, the Venezuelan leader said that the main goal of this new stage is to substitute almost 27 million inefficient incandescent light bulbs by energy saving light bulbs in the official, industrial and commercial sectors.Chávez insisted on the need to modify the consumption patterns that often tend to the waste of electricity and fuel, and stressed that the efforts currently being made by the Venezuelan government aim at preserving the environment.
China Slows Coal-Liquids, Ethanol Push on Water Fear
Beijing is trying to slow the push on water-intensive alternative energy on mounting signs that China might face a serious water shortage in the future.This may stymie the second-largest energy consumer's plans to turn its huge coal reserves and agricultural land into transport fuel, and lead it to continue relying on greater imports to fuel its booming economy, a bullish factor for global oil markets.
Senator: Halt Expansion of Oil Reserves
A Senate Democrat is aiming to halt expansion of the country's oil reserves for one year, saying it makes no sense when oil prices are high.
Algeria Plans to Develop Solar Power for Export
Algeria plans to make use of its hot southern desert to develop solar power for export and domestic consumption, the OPEC member country said on Monday.
110 people killed in North Korean explosion
A South Korean aid group said Tuesday that about 110 people were killed in a gasoline pipeline blast 10 days ago in the northwest of North Korea....The disaster occurred when villagers gathered around a previously cracked pipeline to collect gasoline.
Transneft to develop existing oil terminal bypassing Belarus
The head of Russia's Transneft said Monday the pipeline monopoly would develop the existing terminal of an oil pipeline that helps Russian crude reach world markets without passing through transit countries.
The Earth today stands in imminent peril
...and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change. Those are not the words of eco-warriors but the considered opinion of a group of eminent scientists writing in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
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Ten Ten Worst Used Cars and Trucks
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2007/06/10_used_cars.html
That is the main reason I did not buy a Prius. Well, that and it was more expensive. Doesn't matter how good the design or the car company is...there are going to be glitches in a new model. And the Prius is still relatively new.
I don't drive much, anyway. So I got a cheap, reliable Corolla.
That list is bogus. I sold my two year old Prius for more than I paid for it. How is that a bad used car. Got to drive it two years and then made $1,000.
They are talking about cars much older than that. You wouldn't expect to see too many problems with a 2-year-old car.
Me, I plan to be driving my Corolla twenty years from now...unless the gas stations go dry in the meantime. :-)
I have a 4 year old Prius with 80,000 miles on it and still runs great. I really don't see how the Prius made that list.
Four years old is still not very old. The article said the problem is with older vehicles (eight years old or 100,000 miles).
The Prius in the USA have not been out that long...so again...why is it on this list...makes no sense except to give it a bad name when it doesn't deserve it.
I have had the dealer offer to buy it off me twice now for an excellent price or trade in value, so I don't buy it being a bad used car at all.
That is kind of the point of the article. The Prius is only now reaching the age where problems are arising.
It is really hard to know what to make of this because there is no information on rates of problems, no numerical or statistical comparisons. The fact that a problem isn't covered by a warranty after 50,000 miles is not unusual, but they make a big deal of it. I also note that as IIRC Consumers Reports has found the Hummer to be horribly unreliable - possibly the worst of all, and yet no mention of Hummers on this list at all. I suspect Prius owners are more inclined to BLOG than Hummer owners?
If you Google for prius reliability and go through the sites, they are consistently found among the very most reliable (including used 2001 models). I agree we need to look at how they age, but this really doesn't give much to go on.
And the article does mention that, so it's not like it's a hit piece or anything.
I know, but it really is a very damning article if it is true that it is the fifth "worst car" in the entire universe of vehicles, which is what they are really implying.
I keep looking for the '73 Pinto to show up on these lists. It's never there.
With the Firestone 500 tires, of course.
That may be the first generation Prius, I'm not exactly sure. The Gen1 and 2 Prii though are quite complicated machines with lots of little sensors and computers just looking for a place to go wrong. Most normal cars begin experiencing problems after about 150,000 miles...thats why most car companies offer protection up to that amount. After that, time and wear start taking its toll...the more complicated the vehicle, the worse it usually fares. For the carefully timed orchestra known as the Prius, that could be more painful than most. High expectations may also play into it. If you expect your Prius to be a Wundermobile, and it turns out to be an automobile...you'll probably be a little more apt to complain about its shortcomings.
Corollas RULE! I have an '02. If I ever buy another car (if there's any gas available that I can put in it...) it'll be a Toyota, likely another Corolla.
I drive a Yaris and am extremely happy with it. It's fine for our family of five, and I've managed to get four people and a week's worth of groceries in it.
My grandmother drove hers for something like 25 years. She gave up driving before the car did. And she wasn't your typical little old lady driver. Her hobby is horticulture, so she often filled up the back with bags of mulch, potted plants, etc.
This is Consumer Affairs, not Consumer Reports. I have no idea how reliable the Prius or any car is, but neither do the writers of that article. I can can find plenty of anecdotes about how reliable the Prius is. I have yet to see data.
And one of the cars they indicate as problematic is the Corolla.
I believe that Consumer Affairs is a anecdote-driven site. They do not test vehicles.
In other words, how likely is it that someone perfectly happy with their car would seek out a consumer site and talk it up?
The truth is Toyotas are probably the best engineered automobiles on the planet. They are extremely reliable. I purchased a Toyota Camry with 350,000 miles on it for $1600. I put another 112,000 on it without ANY maintenance. No oil changes, nothing. I sold it for $1000. Does this mean that all Toyotas will run as well or as long? Of course not. The question is the number of problems per passenger mile. According to all scientifically managed studies, the Toyota performs far and away above the rest with the Honda coming in second. For me, the most telling aspect of the list is the number of American cars.
I owned a Ford Windstar after owning two flawlessly performing Toyota vans, both the Previa and the previous wonderfully rugged version, and I can tell you I would never buy another Ford. What a piece of crap. From day one. Problems problems problems. Of course, I had wanted to stay with the tried and true Toyota, but the wife wanted cheap and that is what she got.
Does that mean that ALL Windstars suck? No. But the list is packed with Fords and not Toyotas. While the list is by no means scientific, it begins (taken as a whole) to approximate the idea of problems per passenger mile.
I was just reading about how you can't trust the names of so-called public interest groups. Consumer Affairs was founded for a noble cause, but has long since sold out, lock, stock and barrel to corporate sponsors.
Correction: Actually it wasn't Consumer Affairs I read about, but the point is that the word 'Consumer' in the name guarantees very little.
http://www.alternet.org/story/54093/?page=2
As far as the Prius, CA makes it clear that their survey is not scientific. They don't make it clear whether they mean the first model of Prius or all Priuses.
Yep - just had the transmission on a F-150 go south on me at 97,000 miles.
Admittedly it was a work truck but isn't that what they're always showing in those testosterone laden commercials - how those trucks smash and slam around thru anything with nary a scratch...?
Ford stinks - what a piece of junk...
Also forgot to mention that if you look at car reviews from Consumer Reports annual guide (they review back about 8 years into a models history) I've always been amazed how lousy so called "luxury" brands rate in various different mechanical categories. Here's a list off the top of my head of brands that get horrible reliability ratings:
BMW
Mercedes
Jaguar
Volvo
Audi
VW
Land Rover
Porsche
Saab
Hummer
Also interesting that nearly any of the largest SUVs (think of those named after mountains, territories, or continents) also are rated (generally) as quite unreliable.
My theory is that the car manufacturers know that the buyers of these things love cars so much that they'll really appreciate any reason for a visit to the car dealer's, so they make sure that they get lots of reasons.
Looks like Ford pretty much owns the list. :-)
FORD: Found On Road Dead. Actually Chryslers are worse. I hate the day I stupidly decided to buy a Neon in October 1996. Worst car I ever owned, and it has cost me countless hours working on it to keep it running. Very poor design and workmanship. If I had some extra money I would park it on a vacont lot, put a sign on it - "free car" - with the keys and title on the front seat and then buy a used Toyota.
We used to say Fix Or Repair Daily.
Or when I lived in Vermont, Found On Rutland Dump.
It was "Fixed Or Repaired Daily" back when I was a kid.
Mose in Midland
I still remember a few of those:
FIAT - 'Fix It Alla Time'
BOAC - 'Better On A Camel'
Sabena - 'Such A Bad Experience - Never Again'
FIAT = Fix it again Tony.
PO content
Lucas electric, from the people that invented sudden darkness.
I had some joke matches I used to carry in my 68' Triumph Spitfire that had printed on them:
Lucas Electronics
Joseph Lucas "Prince of Darkness"
"If your lights don't work don't try these they don't work either"
When I visited the UK at first I wondered why they drank warm beer.
Then I saw they had Lucas refrigerators.
Whole Romeo, because it hasn't rusted yet.
sf
PONTIAC - ...
Uhm, nope. Some things just don't bear repeating.
PONTIAC....How about:
Peak Oil Nut Thinks It's A Cadillac!
CHEVROLET: Cheap heap, each valve rattles, oil leaks every time.
This guy at consumeraffairs.com comes out with anti-Prius articles on a regular basis.
Funny thing is that consumerreports.org in their annual survey just a few months ago found:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/reliability/would-you-buy-that-c...
More Confirmation that OPEC is maxed out
Iran sees 10% rise in crude oil price this year
(Apologies if this has been posted before as I have been on vacation.)
Ron Patterson
And that:
OPEC might not increase production in coming months
http://www.advfn.com/news_OPEC-might-not-increase-production-in-coming-m...
Ron,
Hope you had a great vacation your contributions have been missed!
Austin's Kill-A-Watt Challenge
http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Kill-A-Watt/
A competition at several levels (renters, homeowners, businesses, neighborhoods) on who can reduce electrical consumption the most, and how they did it.
Hard to see any losers in this game :-)
Best Hopes for Competitive Instincts,
Alan
Perhaps link this to local community newspapers as a concept ?
Hi Alan,
Don't know if this was posted (I was away):
Planning pays off, pleased officials say (new GTA light rail)
And this today:
Green fund for green cars
Just a little hope :-P
Post-Peak Preparations in Toronto
Should have been my title. Instead it was Dream, Plan, Propose, Build.
I was VERY impressed with the list of 53 projects and posted the list :-)
Called a few transit friends to "break the news" to them :-)
Best Hopes for Toronto (and federal co-operation),
Alan
Too Much CAFE Makes Cars Smaller, More Expensive
I like this comment from the EV World article jump page:
I'll take a look at my fluid mechanics textbook, there was a really cool grapic about the average shape of cars and the drag coefficient over time.
There really is only one desigs which is best for keeping drag low. All the others are derivitives and suffer from higher drag coefficients.
how 'bout the box fish car ? that supposedly has a really low drag coefficient but alas " mercedes claims that it would not have a large enough market.
Holy Cow! There's something to send your Senators and Representatives as proof that the automakers are pushing poo-poo in regards to "small" cars. My 2000 Honda Civic HX (not a hybrid) can get 50mpg on the freeway, as it did last time I filled it up. There was actually a bit of city driving mixed in there as well. 2600lb car, good crash ratings, and it will GET UP AND GO if you want it too. :) I can easily keep up with a BMW 325i on 0-80.
Edited your post to cut it down to just an excerpt. The entire comment can be read at the link provided.
And I thought it was just suffering from "shrinkage" ;)
The rest of the post had an interesting array of vehicles (many of which I'd never heard of), their fuel economy, and performance numbers...which is why I left it that long. But that's fine.
Used to be I could tell the difference between a Pontiac and a toyota a mile away. Now I have to get close enough to read the nameplate or logo. It's all because of aerodynamics but I wonder how much aerodynamics matters when you are creeping along in a traffic jam most of the time.
>Add in a 300 pound weight reduction from taking out a lot of useless dead weight in a car's interior...
Gee, thats not a nice way to refer to lazy overweight drivers and passengers. Of course driving less and walking more would do more than improve gas mileage.
Nigeria unions seem to be rejecting govt. efforts to avert strike:
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL19790825.html
The Humvee H1 production line was closed in 2006.
The Humvee H2 (10 MPG) production line might close in 2007.
An increase in SUV sales was attributed to the cancelation of minivan models.
http://dethroner.com/2007/05/24/gm-likely-killing-hummer-h2-suv-sales-st...
If gasoline prices will climb, market forces will favor the subcompact at the expense of the gas guzzling behemoths.
Definition behemoth: giant, heavyweight, abnormally large or powerful.
Hello Rainsong,
I spotted an SUV that had a personalized license plate that spelled: THINKNOT
Sad, but true.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
‘Hot’ gas is hot topic in courts and Congress
So they are worried about a few % from thermal expansion but a 40% reduction switching from gasoline -> ethanol is just fine?
Jeesh.
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Not to mention the guy in the Ford Expedition.
"The impact isn’t lost upon Carl Rittenhouse, a carpet worker from the north Georgia town of Chatsworth.
“You can tell the difference between the time you fill up in the morning or night, or if you fill up in the middle of the day,” said Rittenhouse, who joined one of the lawsuits. “All you have to do is look at the fumes.”"
What gets me, is that all gasoline sold in the USA is stored in tanks that are about 10 feet underground where the temperature is constant. In Minnesota the temp runs about 56 degrees year around. Was around 60 or 65 in Arizona when I lived out there. That's why ground source heat pumps are so efficient!
The comment by the guy in the article that he could tell the difference between pumping gas in the morning, noon and evening is just hilarious.
The only time you might find a big difference in temp is right after a delivery of gasoline by tanker truck. My guess is that within a few hours after the gasoline has been in the underground tank it will have stabilized at the same temp as the ground.
"The debate is now reaching Washington.
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., recently urged California lawmakers to take action. And Rep. Kucinich earlier this month called a hearing on the issue, calling it “Big Oil’s double standard.”
“People are paying for gasoline they’re not getting,” said Kucinich, who is running for president."
It never ceases to amaze me how the people we elect to Congress can be so dumb.
Anyone know offhand what the thermal expansion coefficient is for gasoline to calculate what the volume difference is for a 5 degree temp difference between 60 and 65 degrees to calculate the actual energy loss and actual cost. Also the average ground temp at 10 feet below the surface in different locations around the country.
When the media start throwing around numbers like "between 3 and 9 cents per gallon" without any calculations to back them up I tend to be a bit sceptical. Maybe I just don't trust the media anymore?
We've discussed this before. Hawaii has a law that declares the size of a gallon of gas is different from the one the rest of the nation uses, to make up for the higher temperature there.
To me, the most incriminating thing is that big oil supported temperature adjusted pumps in Canada, and helped push the law through there. But they're resisting it here. Gee, I wonder why? Could it be that they were losing money on the deal in the cold Great White North, but are making money on it here?
The Great White North is awfully hot today :-)
I recall the thermal expansion coefficient for naphtha to diesel fluid range is around 950 to 1000 parts per million per deg C.
So an 18 degree F increase in temperature is about 1 % or about 1.28 ounces per gallon. Or 3 cents per gallon for $3.00 gas, so for 9 cents per gallon it requires 54 deg F rise or $9 dollar gas and an 18 deg F rise. IMO 20 gallon tank may vary by 10 to 20 cents with today’s prices.
That article on the expansion of gasoline at higher temperatures wasn't very well thought out if you ask me. They kept on talking about the air temperature, but the air temperature isn't likely to be the same as the temperature of the gas from underground tanks.
Your basement is cooler than the outside temperature on a hot day, and the temperature of the gas from the underground tanks would be similarly cooler. In the winter, if it's 10 below zero, the gas coming from underground won't be that cold. Being underground moderates the temperature both ways.
My guess is, like your basement temperature, the actual temperature of the gasoline probably doesn't vary a whole heck of a lot seasonally for the reason. Maybe down to 45 degrees or so in winter, and up to 65 degrees of so in summer. If that is even remotely correct, than the average temperature of the gas you buy would be colder than the benchmark 60 degrees, so in fact on average you are benefiting by this policy, not getting ripped off.
Even putting the underground fact aside, the article said the average temperature in the U.S. last year was 55 degrees, so if the oil industry is basing their volumes on 60 degrees overall the consumer would be benefiting even if the gas was the air temperature. Of course, you might be benefiting more if you live in a cold place and be getting ripped off a little if you live in a warm place, but overall nationwide consumers would be benefiting.
gasoline is a volatile hydrocarbon. the calculation is not all that simple. it depends upon the specific composition and the pressure and temperature conditions at which it is dispensed. try this experiment: breath in the fumes coming from your tank as you fill it on a hot summer day - on second though you better not try that.
gas pumps are calibrated once per year (for most states) and the standard is 1 cubic inch plus an additional cubic inch for each gallon. the standard prover is 5 gal. so the standard works out to about 2% . all well and good, but what happens if the pumps are found to be out of calibration, as far as i can tell there is no penalty in some states. so the pump can be out of calibration 364 days of the year. i bring this up because i firmly believe that the gas mileage one calculates depends on where one fills up.
Bank exec forms electric-vehicle biz
Symphony Motors aims to sell battery-powered cars in ’08
A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
This weekend I went to Madison, WI. Flew into Chicago and rented a vehicle from Enterprise. They ended up giving us a Chrysler Aspen SUV insted of the Jeep Cherokee my sister had reserved in the typical hard-sell "upgrade".
It was a ridiculous vehicle-the monster truck of SUV's. Eight cylinder, four wheel drive, sucked gas quicker than my 18 year old son can suck down a soda pop. And, the damn thing had horrible blind spots-rear view mirrors that blocked much of the side view, big posts to the roof that were extra-wide, gas pedal too close to the brake so I had to take off my sandals in order not to hit them both at once.
The mileage was just awful-I bought two $60 tanks of gas just to drive to Madison and back-it was about 8 MPG.
So folks, fair warning. Don't use Enterprise as they force gas hogs on people. Never use an Aspen-they are a total obsenity. My best guess is that the car industry is giving rebates to the car rental companies so they purchase this trash.
The car rental companies have long been the outlet for the auto makers, to move what consumers are not buying but which for some reason has to role off the line. GM has for years been notorious for dumping certain models onto Alamo. Indeed, a close examination of some of the rental companies will find ties with various automakers.
WRT Enterprise, my experience over many years has been that they area very amenable to trading out a vehicle if you don't like the one you are given.
Why didn't you refuse the upgrade in the first place. I've run into the same thing with other rental agencies and I just insisted on the economy car.
My sister made the reservation, and I didn't feel comfortable raising too much cain. Also, i kind of like renting different types of vehicles so I can experience them without a multi-thousand dollar commitment. I just wanted to report my unpleasant experience with Enterprise, who won't get my business again and report on an unsafe gas hog, the Aspen so others won't make my stupid mistakes.
You should have taken it off-roading and brought it back caked in mud.
"What happened?"
"Eh, hit a puddle I guess.."
I'm getting my revenge by bad-mouthing Enterprise Rent-a-car and the Chrysler Aspen. With any luck a few people won't rent their crap, and their publicity/advertising departments will get all riled up. I doubt they will change their ways, but any small cut in business because I communicated my unhappiness is enough.
I rent cars fairly often because I travel out of town often to work. So does my sister. And so do many people who read this site. I hope they remember my story and use it to protect themselves.
I wanted to rent an Insight for a trip that I was going to take. Figured I could get a more reliable car and save some gas at the same time. Doesn't exist! Everything else they had was LESS fuel efficient than what I had.
"A Senate Democrat is aiming to halt expansion of the country's oil reserves for one year, saying it makes no sense when oil prices are high."
Does anyone here believe that crude prices will be lower next year? How about in 2009?
Perhaps Senator Dorgan has intelligence regarding an impending visit from The Fossil Fuel Fairy.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
Maybe few here believe that, but out in the rest of the world, everyone does believe that this is a temporary spike.
It's just like Deffeyes predicted. Volatility is disguising the steady upward climb, and preventing people from taking action.
The thing is, if the U.S./world economy hits the skids hard enough, it is quite conceivable to see crude priced lower than this year, or 5 years ago - mainly because fewer will be able to afford it.
This element of oil price has been lost at TOD over the last year or so. On the other hand, economic rules seem to be in abeyance - maybe this is a true blow out, one big enough to be able to ignore what is happening.
Though the price of crude continues to climb (and it is a fairly safe bet in my eyes that it will continue to do so), a sudden collapse in demand, and lower crude prices over a period of years is not easily ruled out.
I think everyone here understands that. Heck, we peak oilers even have our own name for it: "demand destruction."
But that's not what the rest of the world is thinking when they say the price will go down. The senator isn't thinking, "Gee, let's wait until the next Great Depression to fill the SPR." The schmucks buying new Hummers and Expeditions, or not trading in their SUVs for Priuses or Corollas, are not thinking, "Well, maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones who still has a job when the rest of these losers can't afford to buy gas any more."
But 'production destruction' has become a minor theme at best, except for the 'receding horizon' effect, often discussed in terms of alternatives.
If the price of crude falls to $20 a barrel in two years due to massive economic disruptions, the amount of production destruction may well outweigh the amount of 'demand' destroyed. This is one of the oil industry's true nightmares, since they have experienced this. Peak oil remains theoretical, in much the same sense that our own death remains 'theoretical' - that is, certain to happen one day, but never right now, and never when it would be inconvenient.
Most people I know agrees that gasoline prices will never go down again. (I don't live at the US, so they aren't affected by your virtual reality field.)
But none of them agree that oil supply is ending... Go figure.
Thanks to everyone for your thoughtful replies to my question. I guess I'm showing my bias: IMO the exportland situation will lead to tight supplies even with moderate demand destruction in the industrialized world.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
posted yesterday
wanted to put it up again
real article is behind a paywall.
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1503
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1503
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1503
6 billion dollars Texas Windfarm courtesy of a one Mr. Boone Pickens wants to increase world wind capacity by 2 to 4 gigawatts.
Not bad considering the current state of world wind capacity (something like 80 GW as of today).
NOICE!
G out
/FYI wind has been increasing at ~2x% a year, doubling every 2-3 years.
I posted that article when it was first published last week. And it's not behind a paywall. You have to register, but registration is free.
The article was syndicated and published over the country. Try this link if you don't want to register.
whoops, i was just perusing through reddit and saw it. coolio and thx for the linky.
I was just impressed that for only 6 billion somone can boost world wind capacity by >3%.
6 billion puts the W cost at ~1.5$/Watt, not bad if you ask me.
If the average america uses 25 KW constantly, thats a one time investment of 40,000 dollars to keep current lifestyles going. (well if we get 25% capacity, then its 160,000 dollars and that will cause a contraction in the economy. and it would be 160,000 refreshed every 40 years or so. to make it 1/4 a million dollars in todays money to be provided with 25KW every day for the rest of your life.)
I would also like to point out that 25 KW is like having (elite cyclists typically train 6-8 hours a day putting out 500 watts continuously) This means 2 elite cyclists per 1 KW, and for it to be continuous 6 in a day and then times 25, so 150 cyclists!
The average american has the equivalent of 1/2 the field of the Tour de France working for him all the time to get things done!!!
Which says a lot about how much existing wind capacity there is...
"If the average american uses 25 KW constantly"
- is that number you actually found somewhere? Sounds way high to me. They usually assume about 1 KW per household, and even if you multiply that by several fold to account for industrial and commercial use it's far from 25KW - and that's per household not person.
This site:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_ele_gen_abi_percap-electric-genera...
does not show the US but lists Canada at about 3.4 KW per-capita generation capacity (not average usage!).
I actually pulled those numbers right out my ass.
It's probably much larger than 25KW
You are talking about electricity generation capacity, i am talking about total energy usage (which should be thought of in watts). Just to eat most americans consume 3000Cal and require between 8 and 10 times the food calories to get those calories to their plates, so 33000Cal, which is already more than 1KW. Now include driving, most americans use something like 25 barrels of oil per day.
simply going by total USA energy expenditure (FF, nuclear, solar, hydro for transportation and all industry)
we have from 1999
2200 M TonnesOilEquivalent used in the USA economy
42 GJ of energy in those Tonnes of oil equivalent
31556111 seconds in a year
2.93464E+12 Watts is the power requirement of the USA.
8384 Watts per capita overall (350,000,000 residences).
so 8.5 KW of power are needed. and of those 8.5, 1 goes to food and probably something like 2.5-4 go to transportation. and the rest go to taxes.
looks like i was wrong, my apologies.
Only an 8th or so of the field of the Tour De France is needed to keep 1 american alive at current standards of living.
Note that norway, (In your link) has very low oil consumption per capita, so the electriciy generated is likely to be close to the proper number.
You're a bit low.
Annual US energy consumption from all sources (raw inputs) is about 100 quadrillion BTU (it's just a bit more now; details). Call it 1020 joules/yr. Divide by 365 days/yr and 86400 sec/day, that's 3.17*1012 J/sec (watts). Divide by 3*108 population, and you get 10.6 kW.
Wind's great here in Texas! Since the turbines pay about $4,000 per year in royalty per turbine, and add high paying rural jobs, and ad valorem tax value for local governments, everybody loves them. We've already got the nations highest wind electricity capacity and have room for many thousands more turbines.
Thank you Boone Pickens! I'm really looking forward to hearing you at the ASPO conference in October in Houston!
Hopefully Mr Pickens will use whatever revenue after costs to continue expanding the wind turbines. A couple million a year in profits would expand the turbines fairly rapidly one would think.
Even better would be if he addressed the patent issue with overseas corp (cannot remember the name) preventing them from selling technologically superior turbines to the US.
When one thinks oil, one thinks Boone Pickens. Man, if this doesn't send a powerful message, I don't know what will.
RE: GSA Journal article above
Note that they couldn't even come right out and say $20-100/gallon, knowing how THAT quote would be played if picked up by the MSM.
I don't consider $20-100/gallon to be particularly optimistic.
WNC observer-the real message of peak oil is that there will be plenty of oil for sale, only no one can afford it but the rich and the military. The world seems to be adopting de facto rationing by price, and thats a recipe for disaster.
"I don't consider $20-100/gallon to be particularly optimistic."
I'll bet I will be able buy as much of it as I want with no waiting in line.
The following is obviously a stock promotion, and this smug Andrew Mickey claims that there is already 1.3 trillion barrels of deepwater oil waiting to be exploited around China, India and the Gulf that the 2 companies he talks about are just the ones to do it cheaply and profitably. I am just wondering if anyone has heard about the technologies that this guy is talking about in the video. I seriously doubt his numbers on the deepwater oil, and wonder where he is getting that data from.
http://www.taipanfinancialnews.com/video.php?channelID=10&showID=235&o=1...
snip
Annual production from mines and wells in 2003 was 0.18 Gb; it will be 0.7 Gb by 2015. snip
GSA is conflating bitumen production in 2003 with light crude equivalent projection in 2015. Not the mostbaccurate or enlightened summary.
Hmmm. Wonder what happens when higher NG prices start to feedback into oil sands production? Next question is "Who is more insensitive to NG price increases? Firms that purchase NG to produce electricity for consumers (final demand) or firms that purchase NG to produce tar oil (intermediate demand)?" Guess we'll discover the answer to both questions in about a year.
A good example of the "market" fixing things!
And exactly the reason some of us are doomers, the market is blind until it is too late.
talisman sold their interest in the "tar pit" and used the money to buy back their shares. imo, talisman is a well run company, probably undervalued. sudan notwithstanding.
Vatican issues '10 Commandments' for drivers
The Pope wants people to be polite and pray before starting up the car. Doesn't say anything about driving gas-guzzlers, though.
Need a big vehicle for all those kids, you know...
http://english.people.com.cn/200706/19/eng20070619_385639.html ">Brazil to increase production then Peak in 2008!
Ron Patterson
With my odd sense of humor, I can't help but to hear the Queen song "Another one bites the dust" in my head.
"And another one down, ..."
After re-reading I doubt seriously that Brazil will achieve this kind of production increase by next summer.
Apparently they were unsatisfied with the bids for two of the four platforms and are asking for new bids. If this is the case then they are likely several years from full production.
And in the meantime their other offshore production will likely go into decline. In the final analysis they will likely increase production somewhat but nowhere near 480,000 barrels per day. And the peak will be delayed because of the delay in bringing the platforms online.
Ron Patterson
Then followed by the "scratching early end to a record (vinyl)..."screech..."
Seriously, not great news either way.
This is really significant isn't it Ron? You've said before that Brazil would be one of the last countries on the planet to reach peak. Did you think it would happen this soon?
The only significant factor on this story is the fact that it's been so grossly misinterpreted. When a new field is drilled and put online, production doesn't instantly increase to its maximum sustained rate, or peak if you will. It takes several years in most cases to reach the maximum production rate. Take a look at some of the expected Saudi fields, or the other new 1 million bpd fields that are going to come online in the next 13 years for a perfect example of this. These fields then have a sustained production plateau that last several years, or in some cases, decades. Ghawhar is a perfect example of this.
From my understanding, this article is only stating that Brazil's new project, that will produce a maximum of 480,000 bpd, will reach that maximum production and go on a long plateau sometime in 2008. That doesn't mean that Brazil will reach their peak in oil production in 2008.
Chinese Journalism was not always accurate.
I found a Petrobras press release that stated the P-52 platform was contracted in 2003 and it was launched this year. They expect it to produce 180,000 barrels a day.
http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/spic/bco_arq/LançamentoP52Ing.pdf
Petrobras has been expanding reserves and production every year. They are not expected to peak this decade.
http://www2.petrobras.com.br/portal/frame_ri.asp?pagina=/ri/ing/index.as...
Recently Petrobras discovered a major deep offshore tertiary subsalt trend that is expected to yield billions of barrels worth of new oilfield discoveries.
Growth in Brazilian oil production is not expected to be rapid.
To paraphrase the farmer down the road, don't count those barrels until they are pumped.
This sort of US shit really pisses me off:
Pakistan Shrugs Off US Opposition to Gas Pipeline Project
Right NOW - the US is grabbing whatever they can come by - thus vacuume the planet by force for energy -
...and then some poor and energy weak country is advised not to get hold of the same - BECAUSE the ridiculous White House with its mentally retarded occupants say f***** so - what’s wrong with the voters of America, U put him in for a second f****term- Jeeeezz
I just can't let this one go, sorry it's OT.
I did not vote those a$$4013z into the White House. In fact, CheneyCo lost to Gore in 2000, then lost again to Kerry in 2004. They were installed by the imperial corporatocracy, unfortunately. I don't know what could have been done about it then, or now.
The mechanics and mechanisms and trends that have led to this calamity are documented in other places. I'm just sorry to have to live with the soon-to-be-manifested consequences.
I am going to make a comment here that will not be well received. Its about the content of the Drumbeats and todays is a good example.
Understand that I am not flinging bolts at anyone in particular. I am speaking in more or less generalities.
Ok. Then for the last couple of days I have not posted any comments. I have been busy but not so busy that I don't hit my computer room several times a day while taking a break from work around the farm.
I read the lengthy TOPIC posts and enjoy them for the most part but I look to the Drumbeats for the personal side of Peal Oil and what people here are doing.
The comment then is that I am very disappointed in the
content of late. The Drumbeat starts off with a one-liner stating "And now some comments from our readers" or a close approximation.
Then its filled with Cut & Paste from the MSM. News items.
Then other members post more news items. Today I looked for the personal comments and found only a few.
Frankly I don't believe the MSM and find it distracting. I can see that its purpose might be to spur debate yet I see more and more of just media takes on whats happening instead of TODers takes on what is happening that THEY they see ior are doing.
We are seem to agree that the MSM lies thru their teeth. They abuse the freedom of the press to present their views and what they think is newsworthy.
I appreciate the efforts to garner the news that relates to energy but if it overshadows the personal commentary then I think we suffer.
The top TOPIC post this morning is written is academic language. Quite alright but in real terms we have an immense crisis on our hands, no time to do much about it, a political circus that appears to be dead in the water and yet we spend all this time perusing what the media is saying.
We need to develop some type of sustaining strategy that can be workable at the grassroots level. It will be a personal challenge but what can work for one can work for many.
Consider the idea someone posted about motorized bicycles. To me this was something 'concrete' that I can do. So yesterday I picked up a used Mountain Bike for $35. I intend to utilize one of my engines or order one special made. I am intrigued in being able to make a direct assault on the problems of PO by being able to have a vehicll that can attain 150 mpg. The uses are immense. I have a 300 gal empty fuel tank in my barn,on a stand. My plans are to be somewhat mobile. This is how I will do it. The rest of the time I walk but being able to be mobile about the small community where I live is very important.
That is one example that was a personal issue and it helped me greatly. This is what I mean about communications of a more personal nature.
All the rest is pretty much useless to me. I see no real potential in reading about some other country or some politico or pundit's take.
Times too short. We need far more that just a kind of gossip on the world views or here at home.
I personally would like to see TOD 'fork' the forum just as they did for Europe and NYC. One in this case for TODers to formulate plans,share experiences and get SOMETHING done on a communal level.
Fine and good to keep the mantra of PEAK OIL but when are we really here at TOD going to do something real about taking action?
I realize that a lot of posts on 'how I motorized my bike ' would not be in order but links to other sites where this data is would be in order. Or a file system where everyone could put up their plans ..say for a greenhouse. Or a method of insulating. Or how to use a deep well when the power is off.
I am addicted to TOD. I spend a lot or precious time on it. I like to hear how others are coping. I am not interested too much in what some media folks think. I am interested in good reliable information on GW/CC , the environment and other important issues but not so that it saturates the only vehicle that the members here have of expressing their own issues and plans or whatever.
For instance. We are in an approaching drought. Yet judging for the commentary no one else seems to care or share information. The drought has the potential to wreck havoc on our country and grain stocks. What do I care what the media is reporting? I have to go to farmers websites to find the truth.
We IMO are too concerned with media issues. This is going to eventually be a PERSONAL issue. The media will not tell us much about what to do personally. Its just monkeyfunk nonsense. Same as the circus in DC. No one here can have any influence in what happens up there. No one can control the stupid media. All we can do is communicate ,share and wait for the start of the beginning of the end.
Is that all TOD can see for its future? Nothing more?
The title says Discussion on Energy and out FUTURE.
What then about that FUTURE?
I welcome comments pro and con. You can keep the name calling to yourself.
Some here are really doing something to deal with the future. Some here share their ideas and plans. Some here just want to constantly yak and yak about it with out bringing anything to the table. Conspiracy theories are just a waste of bandwidth. The milky way and the universe have very little to do with anything.
Dirt, blood,sweat and tears. This is the stuff of the future. No one is going to save us but ourselves. Not the government, not a venture capitalist,not a Boone Pickens or Rainwater. Not a politician and certainly not Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Only we can save ourselves.
The time for community spirit(if there is such an animal) is here.
This is a community.
I am asking "Where is the Spirit?"
Airdale
I think what you want is not really suited for this site. This is a technology-oriented site. Though being human beings, we do engage is some personal chit-chat, the emphasis is on the academic, technical, scientific, and political.
IMO, most of the staff members are not "doomers." They think the right political action and the right technology can solve the peak oil problem. That is sort of the reason for the site.
There are other sites out there that cover what you are interested in. Survivalist sites as well as peak oil ones.
In particular, I recommend the Planning for the Future forum at PeakOil.com. People there share plans, and well as tips on everything from spinning wool into yarn to investing for a peak oil future to what guns to buy. The forum is moderated and posts sorted into various topics. And no, it's not all homesteading/doomerism. There's also discussion about what electric bikes to buy, whether it's worth it to get out of debt, what career to choose, etc. There's one thread where people are encouraged to post about what they did today to prepare for peak oil.
You want to change this site into something it's not, and never will be. Why bother, where there are other sites out there already fill the need, much better than we ever could?
Well you missed the whole point.
I said "FORK" meaning another division. Just like NYC and EUROPE.
If you want to debate news constantly then say the is the purpose of Drumbeat.
As I pointed out quite clearly its stated to be for comments from the members. So mine was a comment.
Change it? To a degree. Its fine if all you want to do is look in a telescope at future possibilities and thats all.
So yes,,I think a sea change might be worth pursuing. I put it out there for comments. We are wasting a lot of time in areas that will not sustain life. Lots of folks like that but IMO there are others here who are looking for answers. More than just what CERA is saying. Or what some venture captalist is doing.
Airdale
Why bother? Because I care.
Not any more. :-) It is still an open thread, but we no longer have that message, and haven't for quite some time. (Just in case any newbies are confused by your reference.)
I don't see a "fork" happening. There was some consideration of a message board type setup, but there are already peak oil message boards out there (PO.com, LATOC), and why duplicate what they are doing?
I think we've decided that we cannot be everything to everyone - an all-singing, all-dancing cabaret, as someone put it. We need to concentrate on our strengths.
To be blunt, I think many of TOD staff members are kind of embarrassed by the survivalist stuff, and see it as something that undermines what they are trying to do, by making us look like kooks.
Leanan,
We on TOD are "kooks" because:
1. We do not believe economic growth can continue indefinitely;
2. We foresee hard times ahead, while the mainstream economists promise prosperity, more jobs, more growth, more technological advances to substitute for fossil fuels, much more economic growth.
3. We do not believe that there are good substitutes for oil (at least in regard to liquid fuels).
4. We believe that corn-based ethanol is a boondogle.
5. We believe that the current population of the world is too high to be sustainable.
6. Many of us are dubious of the soundness of global finance.
7. Many of us oppose immigration to the U.S.
and I could go on . . . .
There always is going to be a degree of disconnect between scientists and people that are exposed to the beat of the street on a daily basis.
While the contributions of the scientists are very valuable, they do have a way of living in very protected environments.
Comments one may make from time to time, while mostly reading, are not intended as shots across the bow but a returning of the favor by trying to raise awareness of the one thing that is absolutely certain, whenever it may be and in the US specifically, "above ground events" will be the most significant consequence of problems that in places like Europe (perhaps with the exception of the UK) would be for the most part quite digestible.
If this is rejected, fine. No problem, it is your site, but then it would raise the question of whether many of the "scientists" other then the actual technical contributors are for the most part trying to make a buck by promoting a certain technology or obtain grants by sheer volume of exposure.
So? it works both ways, sometimes it turns out that the person least expected brings something important to the table.
There's a simple solution to that. Take your noses out of the air long enough to shut down comments on these forums. Save yourselves future embarrassment.
That has been considered, and is often suggested. We even did it once.
This is an excerpt from an essay I've been working on (working title "Peak Oil and the ABCs of Doom"):
I think that TOD is, and should remain, a Scenario B site. That suits its mission and what appears to be the attitudes of its staff.
I, for one, give Scenario B about a 5% chance. Yet I come here for the high signal-to-noise content.
I think Leanan is probably right that the site should keep a Scenario B focus, even if many of us are Scenario C people and would enjoy trading information in that frame.
the world will never reach 9 billion in population.
Well, I have to confess I am a "scenario zero" type. Live as one will and then adapt to circumstances. Sometimes the level of moralising (not only here, more elsewhere actually) in the peak oil discussions amazes me. Knowing about a problem whose force is far greater than I can deal with is not going to turn me into a moral crusader. "Use less oil or you're evil." Sheesh, that's nothing for me.
I've visited Russia twice in the last 4 years. The whole society is on an oil and gas party that might last 10 years. Enjoy it while you can. Then it's mostly back to normal (suffering, etc). Everybody knows it. C'est la vie.
I think people underestimate the resilience of humanity and of culture. The triple whammy of climate change, oil depletion, and fiscal implosion is clearly the greatest of Hard Times. I personally am expecting a die-off of something like 60-90 percent in this Century.
But we'll all deal with it as best we can. Make other arrangements when we have to.
ciao,
Bruce
Airdale, take a breath.
I admire your values and efforts. I am sure everyone here will do what they can, when they can. We are between acute news events - whistling while we wait to see how many boats really DID make it through Typhoon gonad, when the KSA will do something etc.
I cannot get on board with the idea that saving everyone is a high priority. My chosen few come first, other people third.
Try to get a velosolex - tried and tested:
http://www.velosolex.co.uk/photographs.htm
Oh, great. Now I have another forum to keep up with.
How can anyone believe the right political action can solve the peak oil problem when a major portion of the American populace doesn't believe in evolution, believe Jeebus is going to come back after the Rapture, or a great conspiracy by the corporations to jack up the price of oil ? And any political solution will be dependent on convincing these morons armed with the vote on candidates who will enact needed reforms. Talk about Pollyannaish.
Many of TOD staffers are not Americans.
That my be true, but the US is the 800 pound Gorilla in the room. All of the reforms by the rest of the world won’t mean squat until the excesses of the US are reigned in. Maybe the time has come for other countries to get some backbone and apply some external pressure to change the agenda.
Don't forget China, and to a lesser extent, India.
50 years from now the US will be of questionable relevance.
ciao,
Bruce
"That my be true, but the US is the 800 pound Gorilla in the room. All of the reforms by the rest of the world won’t mean squat until the excesses of the US are reigned in. Maybe the time has come for other countries to get some backbone and apply some external pressure to change the agenda."
Actually, that may happen inadvertently as other governments try to shed US dollars before being caught holding worthless securities. It's in the news more and more now. Nations unpegging their currencies. China's "U.S. Dollar Credits" to third worlds nations for hard assets. Russia's not wanting to take US dollars. Oil bourses being formed trading in Euros and other currencies. Seems more and more nations are getting on the bandwagon and out of US dollars.
Politics is not the solution to the problem, politics IS the problem.
Leanan, I find that hard to believe. Do most of the staff members really have their head buried that deep in the sand? Do they really believe that "technology will fix everything?" I really don't think they are all that dumb Leanan. For God's sake, give them a little credit. They know better than that crap! Well, most all of them anyway.
True, one or two are cargoists, who believe technology will save the day in the end. Most however, I think anyway, are realists and know that that the world is in serious trouble and major (involuntary) changes must follow.
We will live in a totally different world within two or three decades. Well, those that are lucky anyway. And I believe well over 50% of TOD members realize that fact, as well as a majority of the staff of TOD.
However I would like to hear from them. If they truly believe that technology will fix everything, and we can go on destroying the world for decades to come then let them say so.
Ron Patterson
I think what might be nice is a segment once in a while where only the editors of TOD would participate in the comments - a forum where they would debate among themselves with issues possibly picked in advance from submissions by the readers. It could be quite interesting.
I am probably the most doomerish of TOD staff (along with Stoneleigh, maybe), and I think we can (and will) go on destroying the world for decades to come. That's the definition of catabolic collapse.
Take Stuart, for example. He doesn't think technology will fix everything. But he believes in the "slow squeeze," as he terms it. And he think we're better off improving automobile efficiency than building Alan's light rail. Kind of suggests that he thinks we'll still be living more or less as we are for decades to come.
Leanan,
I like Bruce's suggestion above-maybe get Dave back for his perspective also.
Also, is there an easy fix to having all links posted in comments section to open in a new window?
Prob has been asked before and it is a Drupal issue, or maybe not. I end up not checking or scroll by due to losing the train of thought in the thread.
I think this kind of diversity is a Good Thing. It stops TOD from becoming too shrill.
I like hearing about everyone's differing perspectives. It does truly help one think about the problem, especially its human side.
I confess to serious doomerism (die-off, points of no return on oil and climate were reached in the 70s and 90s, respectively).
It's dangerous (in a self-destructive sense) to get too Cosmic about it, though.
ciao,
Bruce
As I have stated in other posts before, I truly do believe that if we got all of the TOD readers together at a conference center for a week, we could come up with a wonderful plan that would work very well from a technical and economic perspective. Unfortunately, it would be shot down in a heartbeat and go nowhere, because the real problem is not technical or economic, it is political and social. We really haven't figured out a way to crack that nut, and probably never will.
Nevertheless, the technical and economic analyses found here are extremely valuable, because whatever mini-solutions are found and implemented will be in spite of government and society, not because of them.
I'll go, if there's (good) beer. After one or two I lose my doomerie attitude and realize that in the end we're all going to die anyway, so what's the point?
In 700,000 years, archaeologist explorers from the planet ZweobointsinFlaoobin Zeta will crack the code to read the hard drives from the TOD server array, and laugh at our folly.
"It ain't no sin to be glad yer alive" -B. Springsteen
pssssssstt
don't tell any one but if you click on the setting sun up at the TOD header, right next to the oil pump, you can enter the secret DOOMER site where we worship HORUS and await the coming.
Just kidding.
I do think that the Tech element of TOD could be channeled for good ( as opposed to evil?) somehow.
I very like my earlier suggestion of an open source project focused on one of the members proposels. To be voted upon. ALAN, Westexas, etc. This addresses Airdales put and others.
Just the random thoughts of an X industrial designer cum TROLL.
I'm not staff (just a contributor), but I've got to answer this.
I have not seen any contributor whose views can be summarized that way. It even makes a lame and dishonest caricature.
Some of us have even suggested what kind of changes we would need, and how to go about them.
We certainly will.
What do you mean, "everything"? We can certainly live very comfortably without oil. We are almost certainly not going to find something to throw in the Hummers and Escalades and Excursions in lieu of gasoline and go roaring off as before. How about some definitions here?
False premise. Some of us are convinced that a large part of the investment we're going to have to make is in rebuilding. Regrow forests, pull carbon out of the atmosphere, build soils.
If you haven't seen it yet, it's because you're not paying attention.
FYI: I have time to read about one thread out of six on TOD. When I'm working on an analytical piece, that can drop to one a week. Just because I fail to comment on something doesn't mean anything, and that goes for everyone who produces content here.
I would suggest that much of the world's population already does not live particularly comfortably, due to the fact that they have not received the benefits of being part of a largely-fossil-fuel-powered economy.
On top of that, if a dramatic fall in the global availability of oil and gas significantly impedes our ability to generate the quantity of food we do today, then far more or us will be living less than comfortably.
OTOH, if by your statement you meant "given enough time and adaptation, there's no in principle reason we shouldn't be able to continue live comfortably without oil", then I agree. But I'm willing to bet it will take some rough going to get there.
It certainly will take adaptation, and that will take time (just for people to get their minds around the idea). But most of the technologies are here.
To go beyond that, it's not too much to suggest that many places in the world could fare much BETTER if they were not having their politics and raw materials ravaged by the Oil-Rich countries of the world. Cheap energy has given the 'imperial states' the increased ability to manipulate, weaken and rob less-organized and defendable nations.
I don't doubt that that occurs, but I do believe (perhaps naively) that on balance, the high level of economic development in rich countries is what is necessary to allow developing countries to improve their lot. Unfortunately the current patterns of wealth transference are rather screwed up, for a variety of reasons.
Nice to have you back, Ron.
I hear you, airdale. What comments are posted is up to the posters. Sometimes we do have discussions on practical preparations.
Just yesterday or so, for example, we had a discussion about batteries for power while the grid is down. I've been thinking about setting up some such - note that you don't have to have PV panels to do that, you can charge the batteries from the grid when it's up. What's the best setup depends on your needs but also on your expectations for future grid up-time and down-time. Looking at third world countries right now, many are having rolling blackouts due to fuel shortage, growing demand, and deteriorating infrastructure. But the grid keeps functioning even if intermittently - it is too important to people to be abandoned.
If that's the future here, then you don't need a full off-grid setup, but some small batteries and LED lamps are a good idea, and if you're more worried, some medium-size batteries (2 T-105's?) and a cheap inverter, perhaps also a small (50 watts) PV setup to charge the batteries in case of a longish outage. The inverter can run a freezer, for example, or a boiler system, as needed. (For me, heat will come from the wood stove, and cooking is on propane.)
Water from the deep well is a problem without electricity. Some water storage containers are a good idea. A larger pressure-tank for the well system is a form of energy storage, in a sense - can get many gallons out of the faucets after the power goes out. The following may be a good emergency auxillary well pump for some people, about $250, needs a 12V battery, 2 inches wide, can in many cases be lowered into the well casing alongside existing pipe and wires:
http://www.envisupply.com/equipment/super_twister.htm
Also, the Grundfos SQ series pumps can replace the main well pump and be run on a cheap inverter as they are insensitive to the exact voltage and have a surge-free startup.
Re: motorizing bicycles, you may want to go electric rather than internal-combustion. The batteries are expensive but the "fuel" is, well, "alternative". I love my Giant Lite electrically-assisted bicycle. The limits on its use are the same as with any open 2-wheeled vehicle: rain, snow, ice, darkness, cold.
Hi Airdale
I agree with you about the MSM. When I link to a media source it is to one like Asia Times On Line or similar since they have proven in the past to be right when our media was pumping out baloney on the same topic.
I am not keen on your project to convert a mountain bike into a motorized mountain bike. If you want to go that route you should consider the brakes before you concern yourself with a motor. The stock brakes are not going to stand up to braking with a motor and the momentum you will have to contend with. Then there is the question of the frame strength and frame vibration from the motor. Will the welds in the frame stand the stress? You will also be faced with the problem of tires and how much tire area will be in contact with the pavement or ground, cornering is going to be a challenge. Getting the center of gravity low enough in a standard bicycle frame is also going to require modification or you will feel like you are riding a unicycle. I appreciate your determination to do something positive to save on fuel but if I were you I would look into purchasing a machine frame designed for a motor and then replacing or rebuliding the motor if it is bad. The most poorly designed motorcycle will be superior to what you can fabricate from a bicycle frame. Even if you achieve your goal of building a two wheeled machine that will get 150 mpg the question remains, at what cost in reliability? Safety? A broken leg could be a disaster in a post peak world. I dont want to sound like a school marm but I have been riding bikes for 50 years come August and have ridden hundreds of thousands of miles on them. I have learned a few things. imho you would be better off in the long run to look for a 4 cycle motorcycle in the 125 - 200cc range and rebuild it if need be. I sincerely respect your opinions about farming and I hope you take my comments about MCs in the same manner. No offense intended. I have included a link to Ebay Motors Honda Passports below. As you can see they sell for low dollars and some have 9,000 or more miles on the odometer which is an indication that they are pretty reliable. There are lots of choices of good used bikes and one can purchase a not running spare for parts. Another good choice is an older 4 cycle enduro on/off road bike. I used to have a 250 Yamaha and beat hell out of it in the gravel pits on many Sunday afternoons. I ripped the muffler off on a stump once but it never stopped running. Whatever you decide, best of luck.
River,,son
I have been working on and riding,bicycles, motorscooters, minibikes,trail bikes, rice burners and now harleys since 1946. I have always owned a motorcycle of one kind or another.
If you would go to www.motorbikes.com you would see that these fellas have broken the code on do it yourself motorbikes. Not only that you can buy a Whizzer or a 'bobber'. Rude Crude pointed that site out regarding the bobber.
Brakes..not a big deal. Speed? From 10 to 25 ..25 being tops.
Back when I was tooling around on a Cushman Eagle a buddy up the road would join us with his motorized bike. In fact he would out run us easily. If he had a problem then he could pedal home. Not fun pushing a Cushman scooter when you run out of gas.
I live in a very remote area. To me whether its city , burbs or country a vehicle with 150 mpg is valuable when gas becomes expensive and unavailable. Otherwise I would have to hike cross country. I prefer the bike and if 4 stroke it can be made to run on ethanol. Something everyone with a bit of skill can produce in small quantities. Enough to make do.
Actually I am thinging in the future of a small diesel. I store farm diesel in my 300 gal farm fuel tank. Cheaper and does not go stale so fast. I have some I put in the tractors that is over 3 yrs old.
So for a rather small up front cost(vs the $12,xxx for the HD) I can have three bikes to run with various fuel mixes.
I appreciate your comments however.I think we share a lot in common since I see you post about motorcycles. BTW I never ride on interstates anymore if I can help it. My last ride to Sturgis, Ky(Little Sturgis) was an example. Not one bit of interstate did I hit. The folks in Sturgis love bike riders. In fact in Ky ,except for the cities and soccer moms I usually don't see any hatred. Kentuckians have no-helmet laws and I never ride with a helmet, yes I know that might be what you consider dangerous and unsafe. In the past I never did and though I have perhaps 4 helmets and except in cold weather I do not use them. Its like riding in a bubble to me.
Airdale-HD LowRider
Airdale,
If you've got the bug to do some tinkering with motorcycles, I'd steer you toward a Diesel conversion: http://www.dieselbike.net/
Most of them are custom jobbies and use modified generator engines. Slow by most motorcycle standards, but can be highway capable and get rediculous fuel mileage. Also a much more stable fuel to store.
Airdale,
I would like to preface with that I always enjoy your responses, your talking about what you have going on, techniques for growing food, etc.
However, I think of TOD as a clearinghouse of info on the state of energy in the world. The production, decline, and potential new sources, and developments in that area. I don't view TOD as a place to plan what to do WTSHTF. Possibly a website can be started up, such as a website called: What To DO When The Sparrows Hit The Fan. A site such as that could be a forum purely dedicated towards planning for the event, and maybe some ironic elements such as a doomsday clock.
You have identified a need. You're telling me that you would like a site that has information like this, all accumulated into one place, run by the forum participants, a place to accumulate knowledge. In fact, one thing that would be really cool is the ability for members to download a database of all the forum posts, in case the site ever went down, so they can have it locally, don't you think?
So, on a whim, I decided to go ahead and register a domain for this purpose. I'm going to find a good forum software to use, and I elect Airdale to be my first moderator, assuming you will accept. I don't know how long it will take to get up and running, but I could have something simple and ugly up in a couple of weeks. I *DO* program for a living. haha.
So, what do you think? Leave TOD to handle energy specific items, and then another site tailored to all things related to adaptation? Horticulture, economy, mechanics, insulation, repelling the masses, etc? I'm sure it will get me on some FBI watch list by creating the site, but it's not as if they're going to be able to keep up their rampant monitoring 10 years from now.
~Durandal
Durandal,
I am a programmer as well. I have a website and have had many for several years. Problem is that I just don't have the time to babysit and monitor it.
I have also created boards/forums/discussion groups using YABB mostly. The problem is legal in that users will go into areas that can get the owner into trouble or at least the possiblity of being served papers.
Right now I am inbetween moving from the house to my pole barn and hardly have breathing space.
I see this about TOD. The day will come when its more than obvious that we are past peak. TOD under your venue will therefore become more or less MOOT.
It would be shame to let such an informed and valuable readership bleed away. There is work to be done once its obvious that we are there. Work beyond just forecasting and reading news stories.
Yes there are other sites. They do not have the IQ of the readership here. They are mostly doomers gone mad IMO. Harsh but I do remember the boards leading up to Y2K and that was mostly trash.
I worked in Y2K as a mainframe systems programmer on IBM systems for 2 years. I saw the inside of the beast and those boards/forums were wasted breath.
There is still the gorilla in the living room. Thusly ...we are past PO...now what are you going to do about it.
Seems a waste to let a site lots of intelligent folks not become more proactive yet still contain what it already does.
Website design is not that difficult. Forking(to use a linux term for the core) is just not that hard to implement. Granted with large numbers of members the bandwidth can be a problem. Server response likewise,,however I submit that if you add more functionality then a subscribed paid for membership to the other areas is a possiblity. A $100 /year is something I would be willing to pay for a membership. Perhaps more depending on the content. I pay that much for some online magazines.
If you set up a site then there might be enough interest and I would be glad to participate on it. Perhaps a chat room as well? It could perhaps have a private area for those interested in maintaining or moderating it and a public area as well. This was how I ran mine in the past.
If it goes nowhere then at least it wouldn't have not been for trying.
It could serve a function if for no more than a link to useful discussion within TOD. Say you need an idea to draw water out of your deep well when the grid goes down for good. I saw some quite good suggestions give to Todd when his pump shorted out.
Frankly for me on dialup TOD poses some huge bandwidth problems. First I find Drupal not that robust. It takes me enormous amounts of time due to the images and the size of the threads. Perhaps its due to constraints from the number of users. I find even at 3:00 AM in the early morning I am getting the same response time.
Go ahead and put the site up and lets talk on it about possibliites. And once I get the closing legal work done, get moved into my new quarters I should have far more leisure time.
Did you ever take a good look at Yabb. Perl mostly and fairly easy to maintain. You need a Sql server and ..well forgot..been awhile. But its open source as well.
Let me know via my yahoo email address. We will move ahead from that point if your willing and discuss possibilities.
Airdale
Airdale,
Good luck with your project and I hope it works out well for you.
I also noticed how slowly TOD is to load on my computer. I just purchased this machine from Gateway and its their top of the line desk top. This computer has blazing speed on all sites except TOD. Is there software that I should download to use this site?
On another topic...Those of us that live in East Central Florida normally experience 44 inches of rainfall. In 2005 we received 30 inches, in 2006 we received 27 inches and this year to date we are down about 7 inches compared to average. Our rain pattern has definitely changed from one of the daily 1/2 hour afternoon downpour to one of rainfall related only to tropical systems and occasional thunderstorms that can happen at any hour.
On yet another topic...I was under the impression that this site was for PO plus related issues. It appears that I was wrong to assume that, but it also seems to me to be splitting hairs to not include related issues such as climate change (probably caused in part by the use of FF) and economic problems that are certainly related to PO. I know it is always a bad practice to assume anything. Sorry, perhaps this is not the place for me because I certainly am not an oil geoligist.
Climate change and the economic effects of peak oil are very definitely part of TOD. It was the hurricanes that put us on the map, so to speak.
Re TOD speed, try Firefox. It's at least twice as fast than Explorer, at least by my experience.
River asked:
"Is there software that I should download to use this site?"
Mhhh well first use a good browser. I use Firefox mostly. Sometimes Mozilla(an older version).
You might try fussing with your cache and try some changes however what used to cache is appearing to be so dynamic that pages are refreshed no matter what. Still an area to check out.
It could be that a lot of client side activity is transpiring and so if your processor is loaded then your response will be slow.
Do a three finger salute and check with Task Manager to see how many processes you are running. I run about 39. I have seen some folks run up to the 70s and beyond. The lower the better. When response is slow click on the Performance tab and see what your processor is running at.
I am running Windows 2000 Professional but its all in my dialup connection I am sure. I can get acceptable response on most other sites. I have not tried to access TOD on a cable modem or DSL to check on response there.
Software to run? Not that I think would solve a internet response problem.
What is your main 'ride'? Do you get 50 mpg on the Twin Cams like I got last trip? I was pleasantly surprised. Usually I do a lot of aroundtown riding. Short hops. This was back country roads, a lot of them in Sturgis. I intend to return to Sturgis and I missed HOG ROCK up at Cave In Rock across the river in Illinois last weekend(another state with no helmet laws but bad gun laws).
Airdale-Ride to live,Live to ride. I do. And I also keep my cores in(straight shots) else the neighbors would stone me.
Still on dial-up (broad band is now back but neighbors report problems).
On Firefox I turn on and off "load images automatically" under Preferences. Really speeds loading w/o images.
Best Hopes for Broadband soon :-)
Alan
Airdale, you hit it on the head as far as "doomers gone mad" on other sites. I participate on another site, but only on the gardening forums as the people there are friendly and knowledgeable. I have no time for half-cocked conspiracy theories. See what even happens here when the unmentionable conspiracy subject is brought up (I'm sure everyone knows what subject I mean).
I know what you mean. I like my conspiracy theories at least 2/3 cocked.
There are so many to choose from - the ones that are historically right, the ones that are wishful thinking, and the ones that might be only 1/4th cocked.
Its the history of them existing that make the 2/3 cocked ones possible.
Just a note in passing: the seductive thing about TOD in comparison with many other sites out there is the high average quality of the participants. The demographics from the recent survey rather bear this out.
Inasmuch as time is finite, one only has time to peruse one list, if that. I have found that TOD has drawn me away from most other lists simply by its quality.
In fact, I'd worry that I take the average down, but I'm ridiculously typical, per the survey results.
Yes, but would that still be true if we expanded our focus beyond the scientific type issues and current events? I think we're good because we have a specialty, and more or less stick to it.
It's a balance, and it's something that's been an issue almost since TOD started. We want to do outreach, but we're a bunch of engineering geeks who speak Fortan better than English. Maybe we should leave the outreach to EB or LATOC. Then again, our scientific bent might carry more weight with scientists and congressional types. Maybe we should concentrate our outreach on the scientific establishment, rather than the masses. Etc. It's still something we're debating, but I think we're leaning toward consolidating rather than forking. The "baby TODs" are becoming more of a part of the main TOD, and our focus seems to be narrowing.
(Just my impression, not an official announcement or anything.)
Leanan,
Some of your comments regarding the views of the staff I find to be utterly astounding. Why then the TOP TOPIC of today?
Why links to Kunstler? Why if this is their belief do they not state such? Do you really speak for them? All of them?
Why don't they speak for themselves instead?
And the one about them believing that technology will save us? They totally disregard the 20 year quoted time span to bring alternatives online?
Frankly I find that being a survivalist is poo-pooed on TOD of all places is hard to swallow? In fact I really don't believe your statements.
As to being engineers and techies?
At least I know how to spell Fortran , not Fortan , since I once supported that product as well as many others,including Cobol. I was a field engineer and staff programmer. I easily have the equivalent of a Masters in compsci due to the huge number of intracompany schools and attending IBM Core Currlicula as well as SEW(software engineering workshop) and much much more.
I suspect that many of the members here might have higher levels of professionalism than those of the staff. Not to split hairs but I think you are being mean spirited to diss your own membership so openly.
How about a STATEMENT from the Editors then? If your not concerned with the FUTURE then why not alter the title?
The future, since oil is finite, seems to be accepted as to what it holds. Even the poll taken some time back showed the majority were not cornucopians.
I find very very few of the membership to not be astute and extremely intelligent folks. To suggest that their views on survivalism is EMBARASSING? Sure not all of them but apparently a majority.
Even the topic posts suggest otherwise than you state.
BTW your statements seem to say that your outreach is to the
scientific and politicians!!!!
Not too concerned with the MASSES???????? Blows me away!!!
Again I find this all very astounding.
Airdale--and I am a survivalist,I intend to survive
some call it doomerism, I call it REALITY but I do not label myself a doomer except in a humorous vein.
Because posting in the DrumBeat does not constitute endorsement. Not by me personally, and certainly not by the entire TOD staff. We've had articles about abiotic oil and about CERA as the "top topic," as you call it. (Actually, it often means it's the story I found last, or forgot until now. Don't read too much into it.)
Of course not. I was just sharing my general impression.
Most of them don't seem to read the DrumBeat, at least not regularly. You don't, either. Why should they? They've busy, too, and they have their own research and writing to do for the other TOD articles. The DrumBeat is my baby.
I did not say that.
I'll just speak for myself here. I think our forte is not popular outreach. Joe Public's eyes glaze over at our charts, graphs, and equations. We've tried press releases, without much success. You are not going to convince your dear old Aunt Milly about peak oil by sending her here (unless Aunt Milly is a physicist).
Rather than trying to become something we are not, we concentrate on our forte, which is the scientific side of peak oil. Let other sites with the proper skills do popular outreach. (Bart of EB has suggested that very thing, and he obviously is better at popular communication than most of us.)
It's not that I'm not concerned about the masses; it's that I think the best way to reach the masses, given our particular talents and resources, to influence the scientific and political debate.
No worries, from the point of view of someone who is very simple and intuitive and on whom a good education was wasted, I find the technical topics and charts very interesting and I think that some of the guys are very good at what they do, it just takes a while to form and/or modify opinions.
"I did not say that."
This is what you said:
"Maybe we should concentrate our outreach on the scientific establishment, rather than the masses."
and then you mentioned the political debate.
I sorta left it at that point. If we have learned anything that avenue is useless. Hell they can't even stop SPAM for crying out loud.
I think we all agree the odds are long.
But it worked for global warming. At least in raising awareness. I think that's the model many peak oilers are looking to.
Airdale, you are shouting. You realise it, right?
ciao,
Bruce
Bruce,
I see nothing in upper case.
So I don't realize it.
Did you mean something else?
Tell me if you see it as upper case for I surely do not and that is the criteria for SHOUTING. I do use uppercase in order to highlight an important word. But try to refrain when I can. I will keep an eye out. Thanks.
Airdale-
No Airdale, he's right.
You've been hollering through this whole segment. CAPS is not the only way to yell in text.
Sorry if you're unhappy with Leanan over something, but your conduct over the last few posts has been somewhere between belligerent and whiny.
It sounds like you bristled at her reference to the 'Masses', and sure, it's a tricky thing to talk about. I don't usually think that statements made around here about 'Joe Sixpack' and 'Mainstream People' and 'Soccer Moms' are usually that helpful. There's a lot of unchallenged putdown in it, and it has the shortcomings of all the generalizations grouping 'us and them'. But I don't hear Leanan's comment mentioning masses as that kind of a class-based putdown, as much as a line between the people who specialise in sci/tech, and those who don't, but whose interests (and consumption) are clearly part of the greater energy picture. It's not inappropriate to say that people across the whole spread of our society would have to be 'onboard' somehow if we were to succeed in changing our energy use/demand. I think TOD staff must be scratching their heads to come up with the balance that lets this effort have an informative and beneficial effect for this 'problem' across as A)Wide or B)Appropriate a swath of audience as possible.
I think Leanan keeps her(?) tone very respectful even when being clearly taunted and sniveled at. I hope you feel better, and decide to give some more attention to the tone of your communications here. It's all just people, here.
Respectfully,
Bob Fiske
Yes I did upper case embarrassing, masses and statement.
I was trying to emphasize them for this struck me as very important. It still does. I believe that I have construed TOD to be something the owners never intended it to be.
There was a header in the Drumbeat that did say what I said it said but if the focus of Drumbeats has changed then I think the membership is entitled to a headsup on it and not find out by default.
Frankly as I said before,I am not big on the media and find my news on the internet but most of all I gauge what is happening out there by what people are posting on the net. Blogs as well. Other forums as well.
In Drumbeat I usually never read the news postings but instead go right to the comments.
I never never never listen to what politicians say. I listen to what they don't say.
Airdale
In Drumbeat I usually never read the news postings but instead go right to the comments.
You are missing out, airdale. We obviously each take different things away from this site, as there are diverse comments made here. As for the drumbeat on June 18th, I found it to be an above average day, due to some great links provided by reader comments. Right now, I feel we are watching an incredibly interesting period of history unfold before our very eyes, and it fascinates me to see how this is being handled by the MSM. If the drumbeats just expressed readers opinions/predictions about scenarios, then I'll probably use todban and/or just read the real news. Its fun to read that once in a while, but not day after day after day by the same people.
Just to be clear, I'm not advocating that you change a thing. I'd say the balance is wonderful just now.
Indeed, in addition to being blown away by the amount of work you do, I'm a fan of your posts in general. Today did not disappoint. From today's drumbeats:
and downthread
Noting that survivalist stuff is a distraction, but still weighing in on the zombie question, is masterful balance. (If I did
smileys I'd do one here, but they're just wrong.)
Heh. I'm kind of the crazy ex-wife in the attic here at TOD. That's why the DrumBeats are buried under the other stories. They're hoping visitors won't run into me. ;-)
Hey...don't be getting p*ssed off and stop doing the Drumbeats...that would be a disaster!
Everybody needs to back off Leanan...you want to post different news stories, start your own blog.
Me? I'm not pissed off.
Just trying to explain where I see TOD going, and why we do this.
I know...I just don't like anyone attacking you on the news you post. You do a great service here and at PO.com. I don't read all the news links you put up, but pick and choose the titles that look interesting to me.
The Drumbeats are really therapy for those in this community that need an outlet to vent, bounce ideas, and feel like we belong to something bigger...it is the "Cheers" bar of the PO community.
I know you wouldn't stop the Beats...that comment was kind of a warning to others...don't criticize too much here what the folks do voluntarily because it could easily just go away.
Hi Airdale,
I have been reading this website for a few months. I would like to see more information on preparing for peak oil. I have put out a garden for the first time, its amazing to see how many of the kids that come by and not seen this before. We have our first watermellon and it is watched each day. Anyhow I live in Houston among the pine trees and would like to know if anyone has any idea if all the pine hay I collect on the ground can be used for. Can I use this in my garden in place of hay? I can't seem to find much information on pine hay.
Slsj,
Congratulations, your moving in the right direction.
Pine straw. Great for acid loving plants. Blueberries, blackberries and so forth. Bad for plants that need more akaline in the soil. Its all about the ph of the soil.
You need to take a soil test. Dig down to root level and pull a cup of soil from that area. Take it to the Extension Agent in your county. In fact pull several on a grid basis and mix some of them together. Get about 5 samples to get an overall view of you soil.
Amend it as per the ph required for the specfic plants. I highly value pine straw for that reason.
The ph has a great influence on your plants. I spred ag lime where needed and pine straw where needed.
In the south there is huge amounts of pine straw. Many use it to cover 'natural areas' in lieu of grass. Azaleas love acid so mulch them with pine straw. Very valuable. Don't throw it away.
Airdale
Thank you for the reply. The owners of the company that I work for are the people that told me about peakoil. They are true doomers. They are presently in Arkansas looking a land to set up camp. They have invested alot of money into their after peakoil plan. Since I do not have the money they have I have to do my best to work with what I have. I recently had 3 trees removed from my backyard so I could get enough sun to plant a garden. Even though we are proud of our watermelon it is not a good thing to grow due to spacing, takes too much room. I have purchased a couple of garden books, however still find it hard to find the answers to some of my questions. My son and I are already planning our fall garden and hope to make it bigger. My older kids think I am nuts, however I do see the wheels turning in their mind, and they know what I say is true, just not at that point to really except it. My mom worked for a small oil company in Southern IL back in the 1960 & 1970's and can remember the talk then about peakoil. She knows it is coming but just doesn't really do anything about it as of yet. We do have the plan that the minute gas rations happen we will try to buy a small farm together. I would love to see an active website that you can talk about preparing for Peakoil.
Thank you
Slsj,
I think Arkansas is an excellent choice. Particularly in the northern areas . Maybe up near the White River. In part of the Ozark uplift area. The northeastern part is really flat. Lots of rice grown there. I prefer some hills and hollers. Bottom ground to til. Woods to forage and hunt in. Hide as well. Timber for fuel and to make things with.
My wife is from S. Illinois. Her kin folks were all coal miners.
Good luck
Airdale
slsj,
Why don't you get in contact with the Urban Harvest folks in Houston, Dr Carrie Fisher if my memory is correct. They help supply the food banks with fresh produce and have community gardens and classes.
In a few weeks it will be time to plant fall tomatoes in Houston, right now you can put in okra and eggplants. Just remember in Texas always mulch and always set your plants on mounds-we get torrential rains. the pine straw is great mulch.
Some plants do well in partial shade-I have a friend in Third Ward who grows lots of sweet potatoes in his flower beds. They're pretty and tasty.
Also look at some fruit trees. Citrus does great in Houston, also mangos and avacados, start them in clay pots and move them inside if its going to freeze. Papayas go wild and bear in only a couple of years. They grow from seed out of grocery store papayas. Figs and pomegranites do well in Houston too.
I would like to see more information on preparing for peak oil.
Try this list. That's what it's about.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/messages
Airdale:
W.R.T a 150 m.p.g motorized bike: By all means hack and report results should you choose, it's all good... But if you just want to solve the problem have you considered a "Solex"? 0.8 hp motor mounted in front, drives the front tire via a friction wheel.
My Step-Daughter had one in Berlin for several years prior to moving up to a larger conventional motorcycle, reported about 200 mpg. Simple, reliable, fun 40 year old design i.e. a "solved problem" within it's limits of design.
Airdale,
While I agree with much of what you have to say, I still rely on TOD as one of my main "what's going on in the world" resource, and don't want that to change. That said, the comments that have been the most helpful to me are the ones coming from personal insight into situations, and experiences with things such as solar panels, electric vehicles, building projects, gardening/farming, and plans for coping with the struggles on the horizon. The collective experience and wisdom found here is truly valuable, and I would personlally love to see more individuals sharing their plans/knowledge/experiences with these relevant topics.
As a recently new member of the site I've found the mix of ideas and opinions here at TOD to be very interesting and refreshing. I admire the way the complete range of possible outcomes is presented for consideration. I've also looked at quite a few other related sites and find them far less active and stimulating.
Another thing I enjoy about this site is the quality of the discourse and the reasonableness of the participants.
I hope the site remains as it is. I would not want to see a forking of the site. That would be reminiscent of the Protestant religious forks that occured because one group of families didn't understand devine nature of Christ the way the other families did.
So, while no site is perfect and meets all the needs of everyone, this site has a lot to offer everyone just the way it is. So please don't spoil a great thing.
As for my views on PO, I'm very interested to read about the MSM and how PO seems to be starting to take hold. This is a critical point in human history and I want to understand the event as clearly as I can as it transpires. On the other hand, the what-ifs and contingency plans are also very important to provide a sense of self sufficiency and preparedness.
Even if nothing was to happen from PO, it is still a world view that contains a great deal of explanitory power. It's like a can of Peak Oil wisdom has similar intellectual power to the BTU power of a can of fossil oil.
By all means, carry on.
Thank you very much for your comment. It's those dang Protestant Cornucopians in Denial that are trying to shut up anyone who disturbs their feeling that everything will be all right.
We need to develop some type of sustaining strategy that can be workable at the grassroots level. It will be a personal challenge but what can work for one can work for many.
Would that be "lets all live off the land, foraging what is needed"? Still wondering how that is gonna work when one study claims 1 person needs 130 acres to make that idea work.
Or the idea of fission reactors - which some nations don't like it when other nations have 'em
Consider the idea someone posted about motorized bicycles.
The other options are electric powered cycles (the 'fuel' is gatherable via wind, PV, water so you don't have to use alot of human labor to process per say) or one could look at the rare diesel motorcycle.
http://www.dieselbike.net/
Upside to diesel is you can use veggie oil and veggie oil production gets you seedcake for your critters. Doesn't need the level of processing as ethyl alcohol and has a better watt/volume ratio than mak'n shine.
This is a community.
And in a real community - people don't agree with one position or another. 'Specially when someone pimps a bad idea.
From the GSA article linked above:
"The concept that resources are essentially finite may have originated with Thomas Malthus".
I really hate to break this news to The Geological Society of America, but they seem a little confused on one seemingly important point: (pardon my "yelling", but...)
THE FVCKIN' WORLD IS ROUND!!!!
Finite resources is not a "concept". A sphere is not an infinite plane. (Maybe they need to consult with the Geometrical Society of Botswana)
Yikes!
Want to know how much gas will cost in the future in the US?
I would not trust anything the extreme right wing Heritage Foundation publishes. Everything their "studies" is meant to bolster some preconcieved conclusion.
They are trying to shock us by suggesting that the proposed legislation will double [GASP!] gasoline prices by 2014. If only they knew.
USA Today has a couple of editorials on CTL:
Our view on energy woes: Put brakes on pricey plans to convert coal to car fuel
Opposing view: Industry needs jump-start
And AP has this story about China:
Expanding deserts hurts farmers in China
Hello Leanan,
I see your China desert link, but raise your bet with my AMERICAN SAHARA newslink posted very late at the very bottom of yesterday's Drumbeat. I would encourage TODers to check out how the NA Southwest's Overshoot is getting much worse. If one includes Mexico: maybe it is more like 100 million need to invade Cascadia, but first we have to build many more golf courses. =(
Tiger Woods just had his first child. Time for him to start plowing, or is he just going to hope his trophies can be hammered into usable garden tools for his offspring later?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hi All!
First post so excuse any errors.
Peak Oil hit the news big time here in Ireland last night
and was discussed by every single person that I met today both young and old. Most went to bed after about 40 minutes as they were too depressed....
The excellent hour long show can be watched at the below link.
http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/
I wonder where George did his research for the show!
Thanks for that link. There was some discussion of the show when it aired, but I didn't realize we Yanks could watch it.
Hello Goinghome,
Welcome to TOD! Thxs for the link--now I will watch the show. Glad to hear that Ireland is getting up to speed on Peakoil Outreach.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
After watching the show: I would recommend that Ireland needs a wheelbarrow and bicycle for every citizen, along with the other essential human-powered tools. IMO, this is Cheap Insurance to help prevent dropping back to the dire, rock bottom Thermo/Gene survival level. Otherwise, Ireland = Easter Ireland. Don't forget that a donkey in Iraq costs $8,000 in US dollars. My advice is buy a $200 dollar bicycle and wheelbarrow before they cost $4,000.
If you look real hard: you can find your children or grandchildren in this picture:
http://www.uni-kiel.de/sino/ar/sk/12a_1970s.jpg
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
That picture reminded me of a Ghandi comment I once read. Someone told him that one man with a bulldozer could be as productive as 100 men with shovels and wheelbarrows. He responded by asking how productive will the unemployed 99 men be.
I too saw the show and your comments here suggest that all this is going to happen like tomorrow or in the next couple of years even.
This seems very unlikely.
Boeing is forecasting that global air traffic will create a market for 28,600 new commercial passenger and freight aircraft worth $2,800bn in the 20 years.
In fact this morning on the BBC news .. Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner plane has received a major boost, with an order for 50 of the aircraft from one of the world's biggest jet leasing groups.
Also European rival Airbus revealed a raft of high-profile orders on Monday.
Do you really believe that the doomers here know better than the whole aircraft industry?
Each autumn IATA holds a traffic forecasting conference that used to be sponsored by Boeing. It's usually a three day affair but in 1980 or 1981 it only l&asted one hour. Boeing made an opening presenatation saying that despite low economic growth and rising fuel prices, traffic would be up the next year. Apart from some small Asian markets, everyone else said RUBBISH. Boeing had a huff refused to pay for lunch and the meeting then sent a message to the Presidents of all IATA airlines warning that a grave traffic decline threatened economic loses big time for the industry. Everyone than went home.
The Red Baron,
I am sorry but I fail to see the relevance of something that occurred in 1980/81.
There is no doubt that both Airbus and Boeing have healthy order books and expect further growth rather than a downturn due to oil shortages.
Which, of course, wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that most countries and by extension, corporations, believe CERA and BP's [i]Statistical Review Of Energy[/i], despite the obvious flaws in such predictive pieces seen even today.
You presume the people running major companies and even nations are somehow infinitely more intelligent and all-knowing compared to the peons who stop and think that, maybe, these people are being told what they want to hear.
Actions speak louder than words. If Big Oil is really going to power all of these new airliners, why are they refining oil stuck in sand or several klicks below the GoM's seabed?
"I too saw the show and your comments here suggest that all this is going to happen like tomorrow or in the next couple of years even."
God, in his infinite wisdom, has shown me that TS will HTF this winter. Of course, if that doesn't happen, I will extend the date out a bit.
Hey, very good program, one of the best which has been done.
Recommended.
I played with google trends and its real fun...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil+drum&ctab=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil%2C+oil+drum&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=a...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil%2C+oil&ctab=0&geo=US&date=all&so...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=energy+%2C+oil&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&dat...
Hello Tux,
In your first link: I am glad to see Cascadia [Seattle, Eugene, etc] leading the country in Peakoil Outreach. It only helps confirm my long ago, highly speculative predictions for sequential change/biosolar Secession, Foundation habitat redesign by predictive collapse and directed decline, and the rise of Earthmarines to repel the Overshoot invasion from the SW. Time will tell, but my speculation is much more optimistic than the full-on Thermo/Gene Collision:
http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil%2Cparis+hilton&ctab=0&geo=all&da...
I have a question. Would it be possible to build a small city from scratch that is peak oil proof? Hear me out: A group of investors get together and buy land wth the intent of making a small city that supports itself completely with alternative energy sources, it's own land for food production, cows, pigs, for methane, etc. etc. biodiesel for tractors (or no tractors since they rely on parts). There'd be strict rules on the population to keep the population stable at zero growth. All the jobs would be local, businesses would be local, etc. The economy would be completely localized and self reliant. Is this possible? Is anyone doing this? Why don't all of you just get together and create this safe, clean, peak oil proof, self-reliant city? I'm not talking about some commune or hippy farm, I'm talking about a real city that can sustain itself into the future. A place far enough away from angry starving looters. A place with abundant natural beauty, fresh water, clean air... Why would this be impossible? Wouldn't it be better than going it on your own on your own farm far from anyone to rely on in really tough times? People pooling together to live in a post carbon society? Feedback please!
Frankly, I don't think it's possible. A commune or hippy farm, sure, but a city? What would we build it out of, while remaining self-reliant? Heck, why a city, and not a "hippy commune"?
Why not move into Gary Indiana? Its already built and empty.
Yeah, but it's hardly "isolated from the zombie hordes."
Actually, in this day and age, I don't think any place is.
Over at PO.com, there was some discussion of those small towns (mostly in the Great Plains) that are so desperate for population that they are giving away free land and even houses to get people to move to their towns. Maybe a bunch of peak oilers could target one town, and move in, turning it into a "peak oil town."
But not many people are actually willing to move. They have jobs where they are now. They have family ties. They are not straight, Protestant whites, and worry that they wouldn't fit in in Kansas. They worry that climate change would make the middle of the country unlivable. Etc.
Other than deserted mining towns out west I cannot think of a town that has only one way in and the same road out. I have visited many of the old mining sites and they were occupied only as long as the ore was there for extraction. Of course one way in and out is good for those wanting isolation and such sites are easily defended but almost without exception they lack one of the things more important than oil, water.
I cannot forsee many people used to the commuter life moving to a town anywhere and staying put for a long period of time, perhaps the rest of their lives. This lifestyle is fine if you are an Amish, Mennonite, or one of the other Christian sects that have been living this lifestyle for generations but not the average fast food eating, car oriented, person.
Personally, I would rather live on a big sailboat and become a trader than settle down with a bunch of Christian Fundamentalists and go nuts listening to them. The very thing that made cheap autos so appealing and Henry Ford so rich was the desire for people to be freed from their small communities. Now, for the most part we have forgotten what drudgery life on a farm with one or two mules, a spouse, and a bunch of kids was like. Once people go back to those small communities, assuming they do, I believe that most will quickly become fed up with their neighbors barking dog, crowing roosters before daylight, stepping in some sort of manure every time one steps outside the home, living without the rule of law which can lead quickly to witch hunts of every stripe, et al. Yeah, their will be lots of big sailboats sitting around empty marinas...why not become a trader?
There's someone who posts occasionally here and at PO.com, who has moved their family to Costa Rica as a peak oil hideaway. They love it there. Not many people would do something like that, though. Most of us are too frightened of change to make the leap.
"There's someone who posts occasionally here and at PO.com, who has moved their family to Costa Rica as a peak oil hideaway."
Jim Willie the Financial writer also has moved there.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/willie/main.html
Joe Bageant went to Belize.
http://www.joebageant.com/
Hello River,
Your Quote: "Of course one way in and out is good for those wanting isolation and such sites are easily defended but almost without exception they lack one of the things more important than oil, water."
Bagdad, AZ fits that description perfectly. Of course, We Arizonans get lots of desert comparisions of our Bagdad with Iraq's Baghdad.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The other problem, for me at least, is "how do they get all that land?"
If you live in Germany it is unimaginable to "go out and get a farm" unless you already have relatives who own one.
ciao,
Bruce
No Starbucks?
Gary, Indiana is the armpit of the country. Sorry if I've offended anyone from there but I am from Chicago and have driven through it many times and not just along the highway but I've been in the city. It is truly awful. I haven't been there in ten years, so maybe it's improved.
Heck, why a city, and not a "hippy commune"?
I vote for the hippy commune. The clincher: free sex :)
This would be a very large scale intentional community, which is hard enough to make work at a small scale.
Cities exist not because of intent, but because it is a good (or acceptable) place to find a mate, raise children, and make a living. A place with those properties will grow and thrive, without them it withers and fades away.
Nice (and correct) idea, but legally unenforceable.
Exactly how many places like that do you think there are? The world is pretty much full. Places like that got settled first.
Much higher odds in finding an existing city and looking for investors to create sustainable businesses, housing, and infrastructure. Then you can recruit people who would be attracted by such things.
There has been a mixed history of such.
The Rajneeshies took over an oregon town, I think, but were accused of doing stuff to poison their opponents. Not good neighbors.
Worked out pretty well for the Amish, moving en masse to Pennsylvania; and the Mormons moving to Utah. Sometimes the survival value of a shared paradigm can be more important than where it is.
However, those are all religions, which are more robust because the paradigm is fixed. Most idealists organized around some principle get sick of each other after awhile and split up. (Cynics might have a reasonable chance.)
Still, it would be refreshing to have a reasonable percentage of people with a scientific worldview and real-world grounding as neighbors. My current neighbors are largely apocalyptic cornucopians who think the earth and all life exists just to pass the time before they are raptured into the sky prior to its destruction, which is ostensibly a Good Thing.
So if anyone picks a town, drop me a memo.
Maybe they'll let us into Canada...
Why reinvent the wheel? Just imitate the Amish.
Interesting essay: http://casaubonsbook.blogspot.com/2007/04/production-consumption-and-ami...
Urban Gardening:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5673.html
Published on 22 Jul 2004 by San Francisco Chronicle. Archived on 25 Apr 2005.
Berkeley: Urban farmers produce nearly all their food with a sustainable garden in their backyard
by John Fall
On my more optimistic days, I think of vastly expanded local food production, a crash wind/nuclear program and a crash electrification of transportation (Alan Drake) program: http://www.familyoldphotos.com/tx/2c/chadbourne_street_trolley_san_an.htm
Who is John Galt?
Wasn't that the ending of Atlas Shrugged? Didn't they end up building their own town? Sorry, it's been a long time since I read it.
Atlas Shrugged is based on considerable amounts of magic thinking such as an overunity device that powers John Galts airplane and a cloaking device that keeps the unwashed masses from finding their capitalist utopia in a Colorado valley.
you mean they re-created the harsh conditions and inequity and inhuman treatment of living people that went on in the late 1700's through the early 1900's? :P
Here's a short review of some newly built, walkable neighborhoods in the U.S. that include an agricultural component: TNDs with Agriculture.
Several European cities have made good progress towards becoming "eco-cities," like Freiburg, Oslo and Stockholm.
J.H. Crawford's Carfree Cities concept has a fantastically well thought out transportation infrastructure. Although food and energy need to be added to the model...
Speaking as a European, I think the USA is an anomaly since it's inception was concurrent with the beginning of the use of FFs. Without having visited, I think a lot of its predicament is that its' land usage doesn't reveal a non-FF pattern that can be reverted to, unlike Europe or Asia.
So, how to make a city, munged from observations of the Old World. You need to control the farmland that feeds the city; identify the nearest three equivalent settlements, mark the halfway point between them and your site, adjust for major geographical features like watershed and ridge and then work out what the population of said city can be supported.
Now, you can have one city roughly in the middle of your area. You are also allowed to have towns, and in fact you need them because you can only have a city when you have towns producing a surplus of entrepreneurial youth to come to the city, which suffers from a negative internal population growth rate through overcrowding and disease. You want town youth because you need educated people, education is expensive, and is wasted on peasants.
A town springs up roughly every 10 miles apart, and works on a 1:9:90 relationship of wealthy:artisans:peasants. You can't have towns much closer together as sustainable peasants don't create enough cash surplus to support more artisans or shopkeepers.
The peasants don't live in the town, but they occupy the area around it and produce the food surplus for the other two classes. Free people produce more surplus than peasants, but free people also spend it on better farm buildings and local projects, and the wealth never gets to the city. Once you tax people, they produce less.
You'll need to stop the peasants moving into the town as life is easier there, not to mention more fun. Some sort of serfdom or indenture is necessary. The Japanese managed this quite successfully by only allowing peasants title on land and then taxing them, the Europeans tended to give the villeins their lord's protection in exchange for a sharecropping system, the Chinese don't allow movement to another village without a permit. The best way is raiding parties to enslave the neighbours, and if you do it sensibly you can fit the wars in between planting and harvest, like the ancient Greeks.
Then there's governance. You might manage with a class of citizens. A representative number of them can stand around all day and talk, because consensus takes time, but they need to be landowners as land is your principal capital without FF's to run factories. You will very quickly get a concentration of just a few landowners with large estates carving up the pie. You will need a lot of slaves, for which you need to either be more numerous and organised than the neighbours, or have a technology to which the slave nation does not have access, so you can get your manpower through tribute rather than warfare.
If you have a lot of slaves you can have quite a good city, but your non-slave population will take advantage of the cheap energy they provide and grow to demand more resources than you can provide. They will then organise to raid neighbouring areas, as it's easier than working, which is beneath their caste, so make sure the neighbours are rich enough and weak enough if you want your investors to have voting rights.
If you don't want to keep slaves, or the climate and geography make it impractical to cede agriculture to them, then you need a royal family, who act as the class that doesn't need usury or fiat currency to experience an continual accumulation of wealth, and so are able to work on a long-term basis of a couple of centuries ahead. They have to be the locus of power or you don't have sustainability, and they need the security of generational succession or they'll loot and bolt.
That was a longer wibble than I expected, but basically a city is the outcome of (a) complexity and (b) cheap energy. If you don't have the option of high EROEI from FF and without an alternative energy source, you can (1) simplify or (2) get real slaves.
Oh, and if this goes ahead, I'm king, okay ;-)
You can be the king and worry about assassination, I'll settle for being an educated artisan :-)
Your piece is a very good one for Americans on TOD to read. I spent the first 30 years of my life in the USA. After moving to Germany, I realised I hadn't had an idea of what a functioning village is. Now, I live in Freising. Before it was a "city" (recently grown to 45k inhabitants) it was a town and before that a village or set of villages. 1000 years' "market rights" were celebrated in 1996. Young by European standards, but significantly older than any of the nation states. That makes a big, big difference.
ciao,
Bruce
"Now, you can have one city roughly in the middle of your area. You are also allowed to have towns, and in fact you need them because you can only have a city when you have towns producing a surplus of entrepreneurial youth to come to the city, which suffers from a negative internal population growth rate through overcrowding and disease. You want town youth because you need educated people, education is expensive, and is wasted on peasants."
Sounds like Europeans are truly enlightened. I believe people went to the New World to escape the above. Unfortunately they brought everything but the monarchs with them. How 'bout we try something different. Something like the French Revolution but broader in scope. Then shoot anyone who even suggests forming a Government or Market infrastructure or ways to increase wealth.
Yeah, the "ration orgasms" bit always works out great . . .
Plato advocated compulsory infanticide for unplanned and unwanted babies. "Let them never see the light of day."
Arrgh Tavor,
Your youth and idealism are starting to show themselves.
Let's start with some basic science and math.
The Planet Earth is mostly an inhospitable place for human existence. 75% of it is covered with salty (toxic) sea water. There is no law in the Universe that says places MUST exist that have all the amenities for enjoyable human living: "natural beauty, fresh water, clean air... etc., etc."
In fact there is almost no place on Earth that "has it all" in the sense that you propose. This is why we have global trading. (This and the fact that it maximizes profits for an elite few.) One place has sand dunes, hot scorching weather, no fresh water, and oh yes, oil. Another has bugs, incessant humidity and, oh yes, a rain forest. This is why human beings trade and why the go-it-alone on-a-remote-island idea fails.
Read Jared Diamond's book, Collapse; especially the chapters about the Polynesian islands.
Your newbie's journey into the Peak Oil swamp is kind of like a hiker starting up a trail to the mountain top and meeting returning hikers along the way who have been there and done that. Many of the old coot commenters here have discussed the Collapse book and others ad nasueum.
(Speaking of old coots, welcome back Sailorman. Where have you been? Argghh.)
In fact there is almost no place on Earth that "has it all" in the sense that you propose
New Orleans for example. The best food in the world :-), music in it's soul (enough that a local claimed "ALL music starts in New Orleans, which has a modicum of truth to it), a very friendly civic atmosphere, eminently walkable (pre-K tied with NYC for fewest miles driven by residents) great Urban neighborhoods, delightful Urban environment (architecture + trees & plants), extraordinarily tolerant and a Caribbean atmosphere.
OTOH, a intractable crime & drug problem, poor economics, bad schools (which are improving), TERRIBLE heat & humidity in the summer, and a Caribbean atmosphere.
And levees designed and built by the US Army Corps of Engineers.
Best Hopes for finding what you want,
Alan
Tavor,
It's not from scratch
but they have the right idea
http://www.vaxjo.se/default.aspx?id=1630
From Financial Sense:
Saw it last night and had to laugh. You have to admit it would be funny if it wasn't our money going down the drain.
Do not underestimate the Chinese. Right this minute they are using US Dollars to finance expansion of social services in Africa. There was an article regarding this about a week ago in Asia Time On Line. The Chinese are building hospitals, roads, scools, improving port facilities, etc, and are using a lot of local labor to get it done. The Chinese are paying for all this good will with their American Dollars and are receiving preferential treatment when time comes to allocate oil leases. So, they are dumping dollars but in a very smart way, as usual, they are getting the most bang for their USDs. These dollars will return to the US but via Africa which will slow down the rate that the dollar sinks in relation to other currencies.
The Chinese are paying for all this good will with their American Dollars
Money flows? Here's a tidbit via http://www.urbansurvival.com/lastweek.htm
Also, you recall a story TX passed along to you last spring about huge amounts of drug money that formerly passed through Africa on its way to Europe. The money had started vanishing in Africa and not moving on to Europe. Now recall you ran a story last June or July about how on a single day the Jap. govern. had to inject trillions of Yen in to their economy to keep it from collapsing Two days after that the German Govern. had to do the same.
Well what our Dutch bankers just got around to telling us is this near collapse of the worlds major economies was a shot across the bow. One Individual or cartel some where in Africa injected an enormous amount of money in to each countries economy on each day causing this near collapse. What does this mean? It appears that not since the 1700's one individual or small cartel now has enough financial clout to hold an entire nation's economy hostage. The money guys say that it was just a warning, a small flex of muscle. They are worried.
Narco money? Big finance? Hrmmmm.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0202/S00069.htm
NYSE Chairman Richard Grasso Embracing A FARC Commander
Interesting hint of more "voluntary" production cutbacks--this time in Russia
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/russian-stock-market/2007/06/13/
Russian Stock Market on Fire, No Longer as Dependent on United States
Posted by Chris Mayer on Jun 13th, 2007
Excerpt:
Hello WT,
From your link: "We are at the point where people would rather hold tangible things - such as a barrel of oil, or acre-feet of water or a stretch of timberland - than accept the dollars they can get for them."
IMO, that says it all. Peak Everything; ExportLand Model for practically every essential resource.
Sadly, the huddled masses still seek big screen TVs to watch infomercials for plastic salad shooters and tanning booth memberships, then to get whipped into a status-seeking frenzy over who will get the first Apple Iphones.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Well, at least for the USD. I think there point is that the USD has past it's peak of tradeability and has begun it's tumble into purgatory of has been currencies.
Time to trade up if you can.
Sure, at some point the Russians are going to start squeezing if they are continuously provoked.
What is more telling is the number of people in the US moving assets offshore. The financial guys keep mentioning it but they either do not have hard data or are not publishing it.
Any opinion on whether the floating reactors the Russians are putting in service could practically be used to provide energy for offshore drilling in addition of electricity production and water desalination.
One of these floating reactors could solve Oman's Gonu problems, no?
At some point maybe the Russians may make a small arab country a offer they can not refuse?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_station
When I first heard about Russian's floating reactors, My first thought was they were putting their old nuclear subs to new use. Maybe one of those parked next to an oil platform would do the trick. Would be useful in case of need for evacuation as well.
Jeffrey! Yikes, you've highlighed the wrong text!
We are at the point where people would rather hold tangible things - such as a barrel of oil, or acre-feet of water or a stretch of timberland - than accept the dollars they can get for them.
They don't want American "funny money"...they want real stuff that actually means something! They're saying the value in American currency is the BTU value it gives off when burned! Why would you trade someone 20 pounds of food for 20 pounds of compost?
Hi WT,
Very good point - it wouldn't surprise me if Russia "voluntarily" cuts oil production by up to 10% this year.
As more awareness of peak oil occurs, some countries may decide to voluntarily cut production to conserve their valuable hydrocarbon resources for the benefit of future generations or for economic reasons. Brunei currently has an oil conservation policy and Equatorial Guinea also has a production limiting policy.
Brunei and Equatorial Guinea are small producers but world total liquids production would come off its production plateau tomorrow if a big producer such as Russia decides to adopt a production limiting policy. Douglas Low makes some important observations in his article titled Is Russia about to cap its oil production?
I also like Buffet's comments on the oil price from your Daily Reckoning article
Robert...where are you? We haven't done this in awhile, but care to make a prediction on tomorrow's weekly report?
I have no idea what it will be, but if refinery capacity doesn't gain soon, it will be an ongoing thorn that begs some clarification from the industry.
If you are referring to Robert Rapier, he has stated that he is taking time off from writing to spend with his family.
Ah...I missed that post. Anyone else care to take a whack at guessing the report? It's kind of a game we play around here sometimes.
Ah, a guessing game. OK, I'll play...
Refinery utilization up to 90%. Small draw of crude inventory, perhaps 1 million barrels. Small draw of gasoline inventory, perhaps a half million barrels. Small build of overall commercial inventories, perhaps a couple of million barrels, much of that from propane.
In other words, no much different. Continued high, but not record high, imports. I haven't noticed a lot of stories this week about new refinery problems, and I have to think with the high crack spreads they are working heroically to get them fully back on line. Gasoline demand should be slightly higher.
My dice say flat to basically insignificant rise <.3 million barrels gasoline, but your other numbers look "good."
Since the topic of the summer is gasoline supply - my guess is gasoline inventory down .5 Million barrels.
Hello TODers,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,,2106325,00.html
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China makes the high road to Everest
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This will certainly make it more convenient in the future when China starts mining the ever-shrinking Himalayan glaciers. Water is precious, but FROZEN WATER has an even greater value postPeak.
Have you ever considered how much energy it takes to cool 70F Water to well below freezing, then keep it from thawing until you are ready to use it? In ancient times: only kings served ice as a summertime delicacy to their guests.
How much will future desert/tropical dwellers pay for an ice cold beer or lemonade postpeak?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
In ancient times, only kings.
But since perhaps the late 17th century, anyone with some knowledge about how to make ammonia and the money to pay a smith to make a simple absorption chiller.
Knowledge is a force-multiplier. It can be lost, but cannot be used up. Nature's "knowledge" of chlorophyll has created the world as we see it; our growing knowledge will allow us to accomplish as much, or more.
Knowledge, Knowledge for all!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absorption_chiller
Knowledge is a force-multiplier.
It also seems to have the 'same cost' in eMergy calculations. Personally I think, from an accounting calculation, it should have some deprecation, but I didn't create the system,
Algae back in the press:
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/science/ee6d4d4329703110vgnvcm1000004eecbcc...
As articles go this one seems to be fairly neutral, and realistic:
Is there any way i can get my hands on a map of the united states at least, world at best if say Greenland goes and part of Antarctica?
this is just out of curiosity.
Maps of various sea level rises here:
http://resumbrae.com/archive/warming/index.html
Estimates of how much melting polar ice will raise sea levels here.
Thanks for the link to the map, i don;t trust the article because it draws it's self from the ippc report which is well almost non-science since they gave political appointees of certain country's last edit rights. Not to mention many reposts that came out after the deadline which show that the ippc report is utter nonsense when it comes to sea level rise and glacial dynamics were completely ignored.
The article is way out of date, and obviously, the estimates of how fast it could happen are incorrect by what we know today.
But the amount of sea level rise - how much higher if Greenland goes, if all ice melts, etc. - should be reasonably accurate. You can take those numbers, and use them to pick which map best corresponds to the scenario you have in mind.
Interesting. Have been trying to locate a copy of the FX TV Movie "Oil Storm". Seems they buried it in the deepest hole they could find.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Storm
Seems if this was on DVD, it would be selling like gangbusters. Is the movie being suppressed?
I doubt it. It just wasn't very good, from a peak oil or an entertainment perspective.
They've rerun it from time to time. They probably will again. A lot of peak oilers recorded it, so it's probably online somewhere.