DrumBeat: June 17, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 17, 2007 - 9:20am
Sacred river endangered by global warming
In this 3,000-year-old city known as the Jerusalem of India for its intense religious devotion, climate change could throw into turmoil something many devout Hindus thought was immutable: their most intimate religious traditions. The Gangotri glacier, which provides up to 70 percent of the water of the Ganges during the dry summer months, is shrinking at a rate of 40 yards a year, nearly twice as fast as two decades ago, scientists say.
Iraqi oil: Violence, wrapped in mayhem, inside chaos
Iraq cannot increase its production or expand its capacity since its oil infrastructure has been hobbled by crime and sabotage. Northern Iraq is rich in oil, but exports via a pipeline through Turkey have been effectively halted for years.To make matters worse, Iraqi legislation to set ground rules for the country's oil policy has stalled. “It looks like everything is stalling regarding the constitution and other legislations, like the Iraqi oil,” Muhammad-Ali Zainy, senior energy economist and analyst with the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, told New Europe on June 13.
The Impact of Climate Change Measured as a Percent of GDP (Flash)
Bangladesh importers scramble for older cars
Bangladeshi car importers have urged the country's army-backed interim government to allow older vehicles in to keep them affordable to buyers, the head of the vehicle importers' association said on Sunday.
U.S. subsidy for ethanol could shift
The change is designed to encourage production of fuel from crop residue.
Call for Spain to switch fully to renewables
Some 4,000 environmental campaigners gathered in Barcelona on Saturday to press the government to commit Spain to switch fully to renewable energy sources by 2050, Greenpeace said.
Qatar plans to invest $20bn in oil and LNG projects abroad
QATAR PETROLEUM (QP) will invest or is negotiating investments abroad worth $20bn, including a $7bn oil refinery in Panama with Occidental Petroleum, Qatar’s deputy prime minister has said.
Power firms 'overcharge us by 25%'
A TOP academic has accused energy companies of profiteering, saying they have hiked prices by over 25% more than can be justified by increases in the wholesale market.
America's love affair with the pickup stumbles
In March, Bucky Hacker traded his 2002 Dodge Ram Quad Cab pickup for a subcompact car, the Mazda 3. Hacker, a student from Oak Ridge, Tenn., originally bought the Ram to tow a boat, and thought its macho appearance would help him attract girls.But there were drawbacks. "Gas was ridiculous," Hacker, 24, said. "The thing got 13 miles per gallon." His Mazda averages twice that, or 26 mpg in city and highway driving, and it will be easier to fit into tight parking spaces at the University of Tennessee, where he plans to study political science this fall.
Experts: Gas prices can't slow down pickup sales in Alabama
Industry watchers and auto sellers say rising gas prices aren't going to stop Alabama drivers from lining up to buy trucks despite national trends showing declining truck sales.
Hybrids draw interest, but few local sales
From January through June 3, hybrids accounted for 2.8 percent of all new vehicles sold, according to the Power Information Network, which tracks auto data. In all of 2006, hybrids made up 1.9 percent of new vehicles purchased.During May, hybrids represented 3.4 percent of all new U.S. vehicle sales, their highest monthly percentage ever, according to Power Information Network data.
Higher gas prices fueling the demand for scooters
Chris Carr is used to people coming into his showroom and kicking the tires of the highmileage scooters he has for sale.But this year's customers at Fresno Motorsports are different, he said.
They're not just looking at scooters, they're buying them.
"They say, 'Gas prices are killing me, and I have to do something right now,'" he said.
Consumers must lead way to curb energy appetite
Tom Bloch knew exactly what he wanted when he arrived at Lowe's home improvement store in Epping on Thursday afternoon.The Derry man made Lowe's salesman Derrick Cantrell's job easy as he looked over a stainless steel, Bosch dishwasher that bore the federal government's Energy Star label. The dishwasher was selling for $998, but Bloch said he knows it will pay for itself in the long run.
Tackling Ohio's electric rates - Experts work to keep prices under control
Homeowners and businesses better brace themselves: The cost of electricity in northwest Ohio after next year is likely to rise, but whether it will be shocking is unclear.
A good idea whose time has not yet come
What if the United States were to tap a major domestic source of energy to create transportation fuel that would help break our dependence on imported oil and might last centuries?
Some experts blame gas prices on oil companies, which invest in stock buybacks instead of expanding.
Give Ethanol a Chance: The Case for Corn-Based Fuel
In the last few years, the environmental community has begun attacking corn-derived ethanol. Although imperfect, there are reasons to give ethanol a fair trial.
Great con job by ethanol industry
For close to two years, this column has inveighed against ethanol as a solution to energy dependence on the Middle East, Russia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, all weak reeds on which to lean.At the same time, we have been strong advocates of the conversion of coal- to-oil, which has proven a reliable alternative to conventional crude for almost a century.
Consumers have responded to higher fuel prices by grouping trips or leaving the car home, and economists predict Americans similarly will tweak their food habits - reallocating some food dollars from eating out to buying groceries, choosing to eat less meat and cooking smaller portions to reduce waste.Janet and Sam Nelson just purchased a stand-alone freezer so they could buy in bulk on sale. On a recent trip to the grocery store, the St. Paul couple stocked up on $1 frozen dinners. Janet Nelson, a veterinary technician, said they eat fewer meals out now because of small increases on many items, even ramen noodles.
Oil dependence spells economic disaster for Ireland
Ireland is on course for an economic recession in the coming years if we do not reduce our dependence on oil, according to warnings from a new RTE television programme.The programme, Future Shock: End Of The Oil Age, explores the challenges that Ireland faces when global oil reserves have been depleted. The central message of the programme, which is presented by RTE’s chief economics correspondent George Lee, is that it is only a matter of when, not if, oil reserves run out.
Gasoline refinery expansions scaled back
With Congress and the White House pushing to increases the use of ethanol, the oil industry is scaling back its plans to expand refineries - which could keep gasoline prices high, possibly for years to come.
Gaza civilians fear isolation, supply shortages
Many of Gaza's residents have begun hording supplies of fuel and basic foodstuffs. Nonetheless, the city's merchants say that sales have plunged, possibly because many are turning to aid organizations to supply their needs."I haven't sold a thing all day," said a store owner in Gaza. "There's no one to sell it to. People are afraid the shooting will resume any minute and since no one has any money, things can only get worse."
Fuel scarcity bites as Nigerian strike looms
Kolawole Adeosun slept overnight in his minibus waiting to buy petrol in Nigeria's largest city Lagos, but he supports the strike which has caused the fuel scarcity across Africa's top oil producer.The strike by fuel tanker drivers, which was in its fourth day on Sunday, is a prelude to an indefinite general strike due to start on Wednesday in the world's eighth largest oil exporter to protest against rising prices and privatisations.
Battles brewing on Capitol Hill over U.S. energy policy
President George W. Bush’s immigration plan may have hogged the headlines, but the real wrangling in Congress last week was over the direction of U.S. energy policy.
Democrats Think You’re Too Stupid To Figure Out Which Cars To Drive
When given a choice, Americans are overwhelmingly choosing the luxury and convenience of less fuel efficient vehicles over the fuel savings of more efficient vehicles like hybrids. And as for America being in a fuel crisis? It’s not much of a crisis when Americans are actually driving more during these times of high gas prices rather than less.
Peak Oil Short - a peak oil video
The Government Attacks Biodiesel And Its Users!
There have been a few different stories in the news recently showing how the government is giving biodiesel and its users a very hard time, from actually banning it all together in one state to giving out $2000 in fines to biodiesel users.
U.N. head links climate change, Darfur
Climate change is partly to blame for the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, where droughts have provoked fighting over water sources, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in an editorial published Saturday.
Curly bulbs are bright spot in conservation effort
At more than $10 a piece, there was no way a CFL could ever pay for itself despite using less than one-quarter the electricity of an incandescent bulb. And the technology was still primitive. The bulbs were slow to respond when the switch was thrown, slower still to reach full illumination, and seldom lasted as long as promised. The light did not have the warmth of an incandescent bulb.Some — horror of horrors — interfered with TV remote control signals.
But the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance saw their potential, and paid manufacturers $3 per bulb to encourage additional production and lower the cost to consumers. When the 2000-2001 energy crisis hit, the region was ready.
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Any one else see this?
http://www.ksfy.com/news/local/8027942.html
Quote:
Gas Shortage Leads to Empty Pumps
For most of us, rising prices have been the major concern when it comes to gas. But on Friday, it was a different problem plaguing some Sioux Falls drivers.
As people pulled up to a gas station is southeast Sioux Falls, they were greeted with signs they didn't expect. Stations out of gas because of a shortage.
Gas terminals are empty across South Dakota. From Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City, they are all out. And tankers cannot find anywhere to fill up.
"More so this summer it seems and they're saying it's supposed to get worse before it gets better but there's just not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system," said BP owner Shane Oien.
Interesting. They don't really say why there's no gas.
Everyone seems kinda calm about not having gasoline. On a side not, I saw my first Valero gas station close in the KC metro area which surprised me since Valero specializes in refining sour crudes. I would think they would be doing the best in a sour crude world.
I see more and more gas stations closing around the metro. It's not a huge rush to close down, but one by one their numbers are diminishing.
Where you used to have two different stations across from each other, I'm starting to see only one. I have mentioned before that many BP stations had closed around the metro which does not surprise me since they are usually several cents more than the other stations.
A strange thought just occurred to me after reading your post and looking back at the lead comment with link to gas stations running out of gas...Do gas stations going out of business increase, decrease, or change the MOL? My first thought is that the MOL would be decreased by a tiny amount as you can't run a holding tank down to zero (or, it's uncouth to). So consolidating stations would seem to lower MOL. But more importantly, it will decrease storage capacity and increase the reliance on JIT fuel delivery, causing a decrease in resiliency in the system. i.e. since there is now only one station, with it's normal fuel supply, there is no other station to go to when the first station runs out.
I agree, I think that fewer gas stations will reduce the MOL by a small amount. This will be true up until we reach the point where it is actually hard to find a gas station. Then, if people have to go out of their way to get gas, our situation will be worse. We're nowhere close to that yet. At least here in Houston, it seems that there is a gas station on every block. Often, multiple gas stations are side by side or across the street, and most convenience stores sell gas as well.
You've made a reasonable argument but as we've often learned, reasonable arguments are often contradicted by fact. Want to do everyone some good deed? See if you can validate your argument from actual data. It's a good argument but basing conclusions from it is premature until we can validate it. Good luck!
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I think the oil shocks from the 70s provide some good data. Gas station closings and "out of gas" signs, coupled with rising gas prices, induce panic buying and hoarding, drawing down stocks faster, increasing the likelihood of dipping below the MOL.
Well, where is the data? Just because certain events occurred doesn't mean they were related unless we can show that. I'd love to see some correlation between these factors that looks reasonable so where is it?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
This is terrible: what is MOL? I'm hoping, hoping, hoping it's not too obvious.
You're better than me. I was afraid to ask.
Minimum Operating Level. The oil products (gasoline, etc.) required to keep the system operating. Pipelines full, barges of gasoline in transit from refinery to the filling station nearest you, quarter full tanks at the deport nearest you to fill up the gasoline tankers.
I THINK it also includes gasoline at the corner filling station as well (it should).
The minimum inventory required to prevent spot shortages.
Best Hopes for Spot Shortages and High Prices (except at harvest time),
Alan
Minimum Operating Level of the Distribution pipelines. It goes in one end, they take it out at the other. But the pipe has to be full to work. Last figure I saw was 185 million barrels. That's what's in the pipeline you can't take out. The minimum amount necessary to keep the fuel flowing through the pipeline. In other words, if you have 195 million barrels, you can only take out 10 million barrels.
How our distribution pipelines work.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ulsd/pdf/appendix_c.pdf
Clearly, the pumps were empty because of a "lack of demand." Nobody wants the stuff.
In any case back in the real world where most of us live, spot shortages are just a sign of being barely above MOL. Nationwide, we have less than two days of supply in excess of MOL. So, in some areas we are going periodically drop down very close to MOL, resulting in empty gas stations. We saw it here in Dallas when gasoline was being shipped in tanker trucks up to Chicago.
The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
Let's see:
Door #1: We will continue to see--essentially forever--an exponential rate of increase in the consumption of and import of a finite fossil fuel supply: http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/28/Data_4weeks.png
OR
Door #2: At some point, we will see a bidding war for the declining net export capacity of crude oil and petroleum products: http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png
Some industry "spin" on the refinery issue....
Oil industry sees drop in future gasoline demand, is scaling back refinery expansions
They learned that one from the Saudi's who are scaling back their infrastucture expansion as there just isn't enough demand for oil. They also announced black is white and 2+2=5.
Balck is white or rather white is black, here is how I can prove it. Stare at the sun with one eye, If you lock your eye on it, you will soon get the phase shift from the staring at the object in this case a Medium level Yellow star we call the sun, but it is bright white to most of your normal eyes and then the stare turns it to black.
Your eyes flicker at 3 times per second It is the Human eye's refresh rate. When you stare at an object you get tunnel vision and you get the phase shift of white to black and other neat things going on. Staring without turning off your refresh rate is hard to do when you look at the sun, and don't do it for longer than a few seconds, it can leave spots before your eyes. I think that the limit is a bit over 3 to 9 minutes of staring and your eyes recieve permanant damage from looking at the sun. Call me crazy I can make a decent sextant with on hand and plot courses that way.
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness - one can argue all day about how much oil is left in the world, but if you can't buy gas when you "need" it these esoteric discussions quickly vaporize.
I expect any news about local shortages to be contained locally - in other words, the national MSM will avoid any mention of such things for as long as possible. If some dumb shlub in Sioux Falls gets caught with kiddie porn on his computer it will be the headline on CNN, but gasoline shortages won't be mentioned until that elephant-in-the-room starts sitting on people.
The MSM will report on this problem when the elephant is peeling squashed carcasses off its feet and throwing them at the wall. IOW, when there are riots and shootings in the gas station queues.
I suspect you dropped an 'h' and mistyped, if you are trying to point to what the MSM needs to have happen to stimulate appropriate coverage.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness ...
Hm, they'll produce heat, but I'm not sure they'll produce light. It all depends on what the citizenry believes has caused the shortages. This will be greatly influenced by the media. PO will be low down on the list of causes presented.
Hmmm...Saudi Arabia's oil consumption rises 6.2% in 2006 (via 321energy)
110k b/d more - not terribly significant right now. OTOH, over time...
Also, let's not forget Door #3, more complicated and expensive sources (biofuel, CTL, etc.) increasing over time. It's not mutually exclusive with Door #2. Not a simple picture, a messy one.
From 2005 to 2006, the top five net exporters (half of net exports in 2006) showed a 1.3% decline in production, a 5.5% increase in consumption and a 3.3% decrease in exports (Total Liquids, EIA).
We are working on a paper on the top five. The high case production rate will be no decline. Assuming a 5% rate of increase in consumption per year, this would mean about a 3% annual decline in net exports.
I don't have the hard numbers yet on HL projections, but if we assume a 5% annual decline rate in production (especially when Russia starts declining), and a 5% annual rate of increase in consumption, exports by the top five would be at more or less zero in about 14 years. This would be a decline rate of about 22% per year in net exports by the top five.
Mexico is currently showing a 16% annual decline rate in exports (down 18% from 1/06 to 4/07), and from 2000 to 2005, the UK showed an annual decline rate of 60% per year in net exports.
So the projected 22% decline rate would be between these two real life case histories.
IMO, the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy--net crude oil and petroleum product exports--is draining away in front of our very eyes. The only question is how soon the patient is going to die.
It does look dire at 22%/year, but consider the situation of the exporters: most of them are major importers of finished goods and food. They won't be able to maintain domestic consumption increases in the face of import prices rising in step with oil prices. This will restrain the domestic growth and put the export decline closer to the total rate of decline.
Not that we don't have plenty of problems which needed action years ago, but we may not be in such a bad situation as you think.
>The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
I haven't seen any shortages yet, and pump prices have declined by a few pennies. Traffic is crazy with morning rush hour starting at about 5:45 AM and ending about 10 AM, evening RUSH hour starts about 3:15 PM and ends about 8 PM. On the flip side, commuter train traffic is up, but its not having any noticable impact on commuting traffic. It seems that traffic congestion is getting worse despite the higher prices and slowing economy.
In Michigan there are some "Share-A-Ride" lots along the Interstates where people who carpool can leave their cars. They are as full as I've ever seen them.
A NY Times article about online shopping:
Online Sales Lose Steam as Buyers Grow Web-Weary
One of the reasons they are Web-weary:
Or maybe to make up for high delivery costs, because of fuel prices?
they wish consumers would become web-weary. Their main advertisers are real stores. Of course, Internet shopping prices have to be corrected for shipping costs-- but going to the mall isn't free, either.
If efficiency is the goal, then internet beats brick-and-mortar every time.
We have debated that frequently here, and at the very least, the jury is still out.
Unless you are buying something that does not require physical delivery (a song download, a pr0n subscription), the Internet does not beat brick and mortar "every time." Maybe hardly any of the time.
Someone is going to have to take the item to your door. Is it really more efficient to have a big delivery truck doing it, as opposed to you driving to the mall to get it?
There are other costs as well. Our infrastructure was designed to work on the "city center" model. There are railroads, waterways, and heavy-duty highways to get the goods to the malls and shopping districts.
But if people are selling door to door, a la eBay...suddenly you have big delivery trucks traveling residential streets that were never designed to carry the load or the traffic. It wears out the roads quicker, causes traffic slowdowns, etc.
My bet is Internet shopping is not more efficient, at least if you're talking energy use. And eventually shipping prices will reflect that, when they can't afford to keep eating the fuel price increases.
As one that manages a small business, I would believe that shopping on the net does save energy in a lot of cases.
1. First premise: a large truck brought the goods (TV, clothing item, book, tool, etc.) from the main distribution center to a store that you can drive to. Likewise in net shopping a truck will bring the same item to a Fed Ex Ground, UPS, or DHL distribution center in or near your city.
2. Second: In driving to the store a certain amount of fuel is used, say 10 mile round trip at 20mpg equals 1/2 gallon of gas.
3. Third: In net shopping a smaller delivery truck (for items up to 150 lbs by Fed Ex Ground, UPS, DHL, etc.) that is diesel powered travels from their distribution center to a neighborhood making many deliveries in one area. This truck is probably getting 12 mpg, but goes only a mile between deliveries. So the incremental fuel usage is only 1.0 gal / 12 mpg or 0.08 gallons. A delivery truck may make 50 deliveries and go 50 miles in a large city. Even small cities like Fargo, ND have a small distribution center whose truck trailers usually arrive by train from the east or west.
For this reason I believe net shopping can save fuel.
For my company I formerly made trips to various supply companies on my way home from work to pick up materials & parts. I would use about a gallon of gas going 12 to 15 miles to two or three places in the company pickup truck. We changed to doing much more net ordering and paying for delivery because the labor cost was less than the shipping charges. I am also convinced that energy is saved due to the above reasons. UPS and Fed Ex come past our shop building everyday on the way to other businesses.
But most people don't live in cities. They live in suburbia.
It's true that one truck may make several deliveries, but people generally buy several things when they go to the mall. I think that kind of balances out.
That equation is likely to change as fuel prices rise and labor gets cheaper. Right now, a lot of suppliers are eating the higher fuel costs. They think it's temporary, and are waiting for prices to go back down.
Other businesses being the the key words. Our transportation system was set up for business-to-business freight shipping. Doorstep to doorstep is something else, especially with so many people living in farflung subdivisions.
Well, just before I retired from UPS last year, my delivery route in the suburbs would routinely go out with 130 delivery stops, 20 pickup stops, and I would, on average travel app 75 miles. So, I think the productivity factor might be a little higher than what you would think. As far as increasing fuel costs giving an advantage to bricks and mortar, I'm not so sure. Consumers fuel costs might actually rise fractionally higher than delivery companies. UPS and FedEX are much more efficient than consumers at driving to stores, trying to combine trips, take direct routes, parking close to destination, etc. As far as suppliers absorbing fuel costs, I know that UPS's rates will almost immediately reflect an increase in fuel costs via a surcharge, and in my experience shippers would rapidly adjust their rates, a supplier trying to buck the trend would be taking an unnecessary gamble trying to game the market, but usually you will see all major carriers apply surcharges in unison. You're spot on about a bias towards business to business and away from residence to residence or business to residence, but...I know that UPS has been actively experimenting with a wide variety of alternative fuel vehicles for decades now, there is an institutional culture that is very nimble in that regard, and they have the scale and distribution infrastructure to implement the most cost-effective fuel available on pretty short notice. And from everything I can see, even with their diversification, they plan to be in that business for a long time.
Yeah, and I think the consumers are going to be forced to move closer in, back to to something closer to the original settlement patterns.
What about UPS's customers? I've posted several articles recently, about how high fuel costs are killing businesses, especially small businesses. Some of them have added a surcharge, but most are afraid to, for fear of losing customers.
Amazon.com still offers free shipping for orders over $25. Perhaps they are raising their prices to make up for it...but I haven't noticed it if they are. I buy some things regularly from them, and the price is going down, not up.
A lot of online businesses, like Amazon, are still in the stage where the emphasis is on market share rather than profits. Of course, this only makes sense if you think the pyramid scheme will go on forever.
Such delivery routes are ideal for battery-powered vans. It looks feasible to eliminate a huge amount of the fuel at the ends of the delivery chain that way.
Many online retailers consider my area (of UK) to be 'remote' and impose hefty delivery charges. We can often opt to use the postal service instead which has standard pricing everywhere. It also avoids an extra van as the postal van passes the house daily.
As someone whose wife runs a successful eBay business I'd like to chip in and say most eBayers don't use UPS or FEDEX - most use the USPS - rates are good, and the postal van that both picks up and delivers is running past the houses anyway.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
This truck is probably getting 12 mpg, but goes only a mile between deliveries
Not in my neighborhood !
The UPS (first back in after Katrina, and still most reliable, so the favorite) truck will often back two and even three deliveries from a single stop. Then go down 3 blocks, find another illegal parking spot and make another delivery or two.
The driver often has to walk a half block or even a block to make deliveries, but it works !
This is one of the hidden energy savings from TOD.
Best Hopes for energy efficient Urban forms,
Alan
by the time people are motivated to to something like this, we're all be too poor to be buying crap on the net and having it delievered to our homes.
it's like the "work from home telecommute" crap people throw out so much. by the time it makes sense, the sort of jobs that you can telecommute to won't exist because the consumer economy will have collapsed.
Revision to above: our "labor costs were more than shipping costs", not less. Sorry for error.
That's what the "Edit" link is for.
Have they changed that, EP? It used to be that as soon as there was a reply to your comment you could no longer edit it.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
There were no replies at the time I posted my note to his correction.
Hmm..... All my internet purchases are delivered to my PO Box, to which I can walk. Folks outside the town limits get mail delivered thanks to the Federal RFD subsidy, which pays for the vehicle, gas, and driver.
At the beginning of the internet buying age, many shippers wouldn't ship to PO boxes, the users of which would be more likely to use such a service because of rural remoteness. This situation has now changed, and whenever I do see a seller saying it won't ship to PO Boxes, I send them an email telling them of the sale they just lost.
At some point in the future, of course, I expect consolidation in the delivery business as costs and associated shipping fees rise. But I suspect some version of the Wells Fargo Wagon will exist post-peak as long as there are customers wanting/needing products delivered.
Don't get me wrong, I love Internet shopping. I would never go to a bricks and mortar store if I didn't have to. But I think that's probably a temporary convenience, like so many others here in the Age of Oil.
The system that existed before the rise of suburbia was more efficient than the current one. And I think we'll be returning to something like it.
I see home delivery as something only for those able to afford it, as its always been, a perk of the wealthy. With decreasing affluence, fewer will afford it.
As per internet shopping, its absurd for a truck or van to deliver a 3 oz cd to my door 4 miles from town. Imagine food delivery. A delivery for 2 lvs bread and a jelly donut.
What happened to milk delivery? Cheaper to take a whole load to the indie gas station/convenience store or grocery store (if they can get under the major distributors contracts). Or the old Schwann frozen food trucks-$6 dollars ice cream, similiar highest priced meat. You have to be wealthy, or foolish, to afford it.
What happened to milk delivery ?
Zara's (owned by Joe Zara, 2nd generation) neighborhood grocery store 2.5 blocks away from me undersells WalMart (7 blocks from me) milk by 70 cents to as much as $1/gallon.
How do they do it ?
Long term deal with Brown's Dairy (7 or 8 blocks from Zara's) for JIT free delivery. Rarely run out (major problem just after K when Brown's was closed) and never stale dated.
Zara's does take the older milk (say 3 days from expiration) and make in-house cottage cheese AFAIK. $2.69 for a container but better than Borden's et al.
Running milk through the Walmart distribution system is not easy or cheap.
Best Hopes for local businesses,
Alan
I see home delivery as something only for those able to afford it, as its always been, a perk of the wealthy. With decreasing affluence, fewer will afford it.
I see you are a young Douglas Fir. Things have not always been as they are. When I was a youth and we were so poor we lived in a hole in the road...Actually, if you googlearth Sea Island (Burksville) next to the Vancouver international air port, you can see still the 400sg ft. bungalow I lived in. Small, inexpensive but we had milk delivery, bread delivery, dry cleaner delivery, as well as a vegetable guy and a fish guy. To keep the fish cool we even had ice delivery and with horse and wagon.
We would do a lot of our shopping either by going by bus to the large department stores and having it delivered or by mail order cataloge.
The roads were not clogged by cars and trucks like they are today in similar sized areas . I live now in a place a lot like Burksville but the traffic is not comparable in orders of magnitude.
I only wish your first sentence were correct.
Dry Cleaners and horse and wagon ice delivery in the same time period sounds fishy to me, but who's to say. I would imagine, tho, with all these deliveriies and bus, you lived in a town enviroment. And that the local vendor incorporated the delivery cost in their price. Or couldn't sell their product otherwise, much like today's farmer's market.
A comment downthread speaks to saving cars. I doubt this, as we had only one vehicle when I was a child, but rarely shopped more than once or twice a month, on a Saturday morning. I hated it, wasting a Saturday morning. I suspect we can all relearn this, that we don't need to shop twice a day, then run to the grocery in the evening for milk and bread.
Sears as much as anyone pioneered catalogues and home delivery, selling at one point even the house constructed on your land. But look at the items sold, at least rurally. You couldn't get them otherwise, and it took alot of saving to make that puchase. If that item or a substitute was available locally, or at a cheaper price, you'd grab it.
Which brings me back to affluence. I still see internet shopping as a perk of an affluent society. When that item or its substitute is avaliable locally, for those counting pennies, it'll be cheaper at a store. Perhaps in an urban or town enviroment, the better off will still be able to hire the others for delivery, but the bulk of folks won't be internet shopping except for speciality items. And there won't be many calling out for pizza. Now there's a horrendously overpriced item, enabling delivery for those too lazy/tired to cook a meal.
Alan:
I applaud your enterprising New Orleans folks undercutting Walmart with near dated milk. But its a special circumstance, I would imagine it wouldn't work if the dairy wasn't so close.
We lived in a small rural town in the late seventies that had milk delivery. This guy had bought up thousands of old 1/2 gal glass milk bottles back east, then filled and delivered them very cost effectively (consumer wise) from his dairy. He kept it up a couple years, then went back to Darigold.
Alan:
I applaud your enterprising New Orleans folks undercutting Walmart with near dated milk. But its a special circumstance, I would imagine it wouldn't work if the dairy wasn't so close
There were once several dairies within the city limits (figure 5 to 10 miles wide, 10 miles up river) including milking cows in the outskirts. I suspect (need to check out)
Milk (and fruit & veggies) also came from across Lake Pontchartrain on boats and up a canal close to downtown. More came from downriver.
Low energy for transportation is the essence of the Port of New Orleans.
Enough remains (we still have a decent food manufacturing center) to give good cost savings as transportation rises in cost. 8 blocks from me is Leidenheimer Bakery. I was surprised to find that they air freight bread out for fine restaurants in Phoenix (I remarked that the bread tasted like that back home. He said "Oh No, we get than from Leidenhiemer in New Orleans").
http://www.leidenheimer.com/ Note "National Distribution".
Air freight bread should disappear, but I can walk there :-)
Best Hopes for Good Food,
Alan
There is a Store over on Asher Ave, In Little Rock that sells Milk that is 3 to 5 days out of date or going to be out of date soon for the cheap. I used to buy Cream there and freeze it and use it later. Because the store is so far away I don't go there anymore, but did when me and my first wife lived in town about 12 years ago.
This store sells lots and lots of out of date or near out of date items.
No big dairy they get them from the other local stores that have to rotate unsold stock. They buy them at fire sale prices and then tack a few pennies on top and sells them again.
Hi Doug, Sorry cant oblige you about living in the hole in the road, but we did have a hole in the side of the kitchen with a little door on it. It led to a screen covered box on the outside of the house in which one would place things like lettuce and if one was out of ice for the ice box, then milk and cream as well. The last fifty plus years have been an anomaly presented to us by the angel/daemon of oil.
Yes it was true about the horse and wagon delivery about ice, and as well at my grandmothers house on Victoria drive in Vancouver I saw what was possibly one of the very last real working steamrollers.
Really so sorry to hear about your trials of Saturday shopping though I imagine the experience was worse for your mother dragging a young and sullen douglas fir with her. Too bad she couldn't find a hole in the road to plant you in.
Sorry but couldn't resist this last, for as you know, compliments pass when gentry meet.
BTW I guess you didn't googlearth for Sea Island, Burkesville? it was sort of a suburb of Vancouver B.C.
Delivery services (which I just barely remember from when I was a kid) had less to do with saving fuel than it did with saving cars.
A family would have zero or one car. If there was one car, the dad would have driven it to work. It was much more practical to deliver routine supplies to a route of homes than for everyone to buy and maintain a separate vehicle.
Even if some sort of mass transit were available, it was far more convenient and time-saving to have deliveries. Mom, after all, worked hard all day in the home.
Most of the major supermarkets in the UK now do home delivery,
You order and pay online and it costs about 10 to 12 usd per delivery so it saves on the fuel I would use at 7 usd a gallon
As I live in the country miles from the shops its a great service for stuff I can't grow,
I would imagine that one van must save a load of individual car trips,
anyway I hate supermarket shopping
In the 30's, my mother always got her groceries by direct delivery. A model T truck would pull up, the driver would carry in sacks of food, we kids would jump on the back of the truck and ride to the next delivery. We were very far from rich. My mother never learned to drive, and didn't have a car.
Not that I'm THAT old but I once worked with a fellow who told me, in his youth he had a job cutting ice on Lake St. Clair in Winter, used a horse-drawn team to haul it into storage, then used the same horses to sell the cut up ice to JQP in the summer. Netted him about $17 dollars a week in summer.
"....in his youth he had a job cutting ice on Lake St. Clair in Winter"
I grew up in Algonac. As I understand, Anchor Bay doesn't even freeze over anymore. They used to have an Ice Fishing 'Shanty Town' Festival every winter on Anchor Bay when I was growing up. Ice so thick people drove their cars out onto the bay. Thinking of what has been lost just in my lifetime brings a tear to my eye.
Hey there neighbor.
I live near the lake now but was raised on the West side.
All through the 70's you could snowshoe on 40" plus of snow anywhere North of Clare till April.
The ice used to come off the Pictured Rocks at Munising with all the colors of the rainbow. Nowadays even Superior doesn't freeze over.
Someone is going to have to take the item to your door. Is it really more efficient to have a big delivery truck doing it, as opposed to you driving to the mall to get it?
I have little doubt that the net fuel used by a UPS truck route in a day is significantly less than that used by the hypothetical alternative of all those people driving to a local store and back again.
UPS uses sophisticated software with powerful algorithms to optimize the route. Routes are sent electronically to truck computers---even taking into account left versus right turns, left turns take more time and hence more fuel.
UPS and FedEx trucks will likely be the first to convert to plug-in diesel hybrids since they come back to depot after a predictable distance.
There are other costs as well. Our infrastructure was designed to work on the "city center" model. There are railroads, waterways, and heavy-duty highways to get the goods to the malls and shopping districts.
But if people are selling door to door, a la eBay...suddenly you have big delivery trucks traveling residential streets that were never designed to carry the load or the traffic. It wears out the roads quicker, causes traffic slowdowns, etc.
I know. Just about everyone is. They are also delaying shipments until they can go with a full load. (Which got them into trouble over the holidays, when gifts arrived late and customers were not happy.)
That is a sign that they are feeling the crunch. Eventually, they will have to raise prices. There's only so much you can do with software algorithms.
That is a sign that they are feeling the crunch. Eventually, they will have to raise prices. There's only so much you can do with software algorithms.
sarconol
Noo! Technology will solve all problems! If only we can get the algorithm algorithmic enough!! Then prices will plummet and stuff will show up before you've even sent it.
/sarconol
Hi Leanan
One of the advantages on internet shopping is that a company doesn't have to keep a large store lit and A/Cd and doesn't have to employ so many staff with their concomitant travel energy usages. Big warehouse stores use lots of energy, especially the ones with open freezers and bright lights. I expect they use much more energy than picker warehouses.
I have no numbers here, but doesn't this count in favour of internet shopping energy use?
Carbon - Coventry UK
Really Leanan, and you a big girl too!
I thought the big issue was getting rid of inefficient auto use? The more one uses truck delivery routes the cheaper delivery will become. I just wish we could get back to the old, delivery to the door, days faster. Get rid of car leave hands free for other mischief.
That is an entirely different issue.
Using truck delivery routes. When you buy online, you are not using the established truck delivery routes.
Most people don't even consider this, but as a transportation engineer, I can tell you that the likes of eBay and Amazon have had a huge effect on road use.
This might be off topic here, but I'd love to find out more about the road use effects of delivery.
Ditto here. It would be very useful to see quantified verification of that assertion.
Can you expand on that a little? When I'm driving, UPS, Fedex, DHL, etc. trucks seem like an almost immeasurably small fraction of the traffic, even, most of the time, near their distribution centers. Maybe barely measurable on the more crowded Interstates. But totally lost in the statistical noise, at least as far as I can see by looking at the traffic.
And certainly the residential streets are not exactly filled with delivery trucks. Maybe one or another once or twice a day (and those are not 18-wheelers, but smallish trucks, though larger than what USPS uses), again a very small part of the traffic. I see far more city busses than delivery trucks even though the bus service is not good.
I dunno. If so few trucks are truly having a "huge effect", maybe it's only because we have saddled ourselves with an overloaded cheapskate don't-build-anything-for-fear-of-NIMBYs road system, built out of rubbish materials needing constant repairs almost from the moment they are laid. With perpetual blockages due to road "work" that is never finished, and capacity stretched to the point of exquisite brittleness, perhaps the most insignificant change in VMT is actually noticeable...though I'm not so sure how much of the undercapacity is to be blamed on Amazon, and how much simply on population growth.
Hi PaulS,
I think a lot is as you say simply on population growth. Not much we can do about that quickly, but we can share and reduce our problems with rationing in the form of a world carbon rationing system.
Not my idea, so it might work. The idea is to decide what the world can afford in the way of carbon pollution and divide that among the worlds people (not the corporations). Everyone gets a share to spend how they will.
It would apply to energy. If you didn't use your carbon (energy) credits you could sell them. Rich guy wants to drive his 16 cylinder or heat his McMansion, he (why always he?) buys credits at the going rate and seller gets money to buy more fruit and nuts or whatever that aren't rationed.
And when the rich guys grumble, they'll get Congress to issue more credits than there's carbon for and collapse the market prices. That's exactly what happened in Europe.
This is why a straight carbon tax, with a rebate system to make it revenue-neutral, is the way to go. You can't game it.
Dear Oil Drum Readers,
This is my first post. I have been reading the The Oil Drum for a number of months and am impressed by the level of commitment and the quality of the writing here. It is a very interesting place.
For my small family Internet shopping is indeed a convenience and I would think that, in our special circumstance, there is a degree of energy savings, at first glance.
We live in the city, but we find malls tiresome (even city malls) and we seldom drive to suburbia. So we buy a lot of clothes from LandsEnd and occasionally (and mistakenly) from eBay. Amazon takes some cash too.
I also have a ham radio hobby and I buy radios and parts exclusively online. Luckily, all of this is shipped to a local 7-Eleven by the post office. I assume this shipment is combined with many other shipments, because when I go to pick up my stuff there are many other parcels waiting for happy consumers.
Herein lies the problem with Internet shopping.
When I first discovered the Internet it was in the early 1990's and the use was exclusively academic. Well almost exclusively. I used to play a lot of text based multi user games and read many of the old UUCP groups (what has now morphed into Google Groups). There wasn't a lot of commercial stuff at all. Indeed, it was very much like amateur radio. Commercial discussions, while not illegal, were certainly not part of the scene.
Today, the Internet is almost exclusively commercial and the array of things to buy makes me dizzy. I am weak Oil Drummers, and having so many interesting and "necessary" things a mouse click away often erodes my ability to just say no.
How much energy do you think would be saved if eBay and Amazon didn't exist?
73 PiggglyWiggly
That is how it used to be in the old days. Well, not the 7-11, obviously. The packages from Sears would be delivered to the general store or the train station, and people would pick them up when they went into town.
I come from a small town. When I was growing up, we had no UPS; not enough people to make it worth their while to come to our town. No mail service either, though we had a P.O. box in town. Sears had an office in town, too. You ordered from their catalog, and it would be delivered to their office. They'd call you when it came in, so you could go down and get it.
Probably a lot. Their server farms are so huge they've got their own power plants.
Leanan, I just love your dry humor. However you should put a smiley face after such a comment. I have no doubt that a lot of people think you are serious.
Ron Patterson
Don't underestimate the power computers use. In our institute we have a large plasma physics experiment whose goal is to figure out how to do fusion. Now, you may laugh at the fact that these experiments are large consumers, but that's 'cause we don't know how to do it yet.
Now, the experiment is running some 50-100 MW while a plasma discharge is on. That's for perhaps 10-15 seconds with 10-20 MW at the plasma. Maybe 20 times a day when things are going full tilt. Otherwise, the thing is turned off. The beams have to cool down, you know.
Our computer center is a different matter. It uses 5 MW of electricity, all the time. You can do the math. Fact is, it dominates our energy needs. I don't know the numbers for a "large server farm" but if that is in the 1000s of CPUs then the order of magnitude should be similar.
ciao,
Bruce
Bruce, I have no idea how much electricity a fusion reactor uses. I am sure it is a lot. But I spent my entire career as a computer field service engineer. I have a very good idea how much energy a computer uses.
I worked on giant mainframe computers for the most of my life. Now they are dinosaurs. The last computers I worked on had many times the speed and computing power as those giant monsters. And they use a tiny fraction of the power they used.
Actually there is no mystery about it Bruce. You can tell just about how much power anything uses by the heat it gives off. About 99% of the power used by computers of any kind is dissipated as heat.
Five megawatts of power, dissipated as heat.....well hell....that is one awful lot of heat one hell of a big building. That would heat a lot of very big buildings. Of course only about half of that would be used by the computers. The other half would be used by the air conditioners. You would have an air conditioning system that used 2.5 million watts of power. That is one huge air conditioning system.
An actual blade server uses less power than your average PC. Larger computers use a bit more of course. But modern day computers are very efficient compared to those ancient monsters that used transistors, or even those later supercomputers that used ICs with emmiter coupled logic.
Computers just don't use much power these days Bruce.
Ron Patterson
There's been a fairly recent devlopment in many data centers towards the use RAID array SANs. 27 degree F increase over the course of about 2 feet front to back and a few hundred CFM air exchange. These DWARF the power used by the servers and are becoming quite popular.
I have a 2GB drive in my garage, in a rack, which is from 1984 and which weighs 150 lbs. It draws the better part of a 20 amp circuit starting and when it is run.
I bought a 500GB drive which is faster and which uses a faster interface. It's 250x larger than the other drive and requires about 1/130th the power, more like 1/150th the power including the interface electronics.
While Moore's law doesn't exactly apply to disks there are deep and substantial technologies lined up to continue the amazing progress made with PRML and related technologies. And that ignores the energy differential between manufacturing, racking, shipping and cooling one vs. the other.
Computers and the Internet are not The Problem. Certain kinds of transportation, home energy use, resource wars and GHG are Big Problems.
I think the point that you're trying to make is that overall energy consumption by computers is relatively small, and their usefulness outweighs the energy consumption. If that's the case then I can agree, but it's still part of the problem.
The new RAIDs may be more efficient per byte, but there are more of them. A lot more. All of the projections I've seen for expected capacity increase is exponential. What I was trying to say though is that data centers are getting rid of tape robots in favor of these RAIDs. They've got faster access in comparison to the tapes, but consume magnitudes more power. It's always a joke that if you get cold, just stand behind the SAN RAID and you'll be toasty in no time. With the increased heat production you also need increase cooling. Every BTU of heat created must be expelled and that at least doubles every watt they use. A 3594 tape library can hold 4 times the data at a minute fraction of the energy cost - especially when cooling is taken into consideration.
Ron, you really are overlooking the problem of exponential growth. One server? Peanuts. How many servers does Google have, Ron? Do you know? One estimate is 450,000. If they use an average 200 watts each (as per Baroso of Google's own statement), then how many watts is Google using worldwide? How about 90 million watts daily just for the servers, not counting infrastructure?
I suggest you start to read the peer reviewed studies on this:
http://enterprise.amd.com/Downloads/svrpwrusecompletefinal.pdf
That study estimates that servers (not all PCs, just servers) in the United States use 0.6% of total electricity generated. If you add cooling and other infrastructure support, the number climbs to 1.2%.
Those numbers might be off a bit but not by an order of magnitude. Server power consumption is not going to be 0.1% of US electricity. It's not going to be 12% of US electricity. But it is probably very close to the estimate used by this study. And 1.2% is not peanuts. It's not small.
I work with computers every day. My original degree is a computer science degree. Computer usage is so vast that just due to sheer total numbers the power issue is going to be felt. And if you read IBM's own literature on their Blade Server specification, one of the major areas of study and design is around power usage and power efficiency.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
1.2% is about 48 TWH/year.
The question ought to be, how would that change if we used e.g. laptop design practices for servers and tried to drive energy/operation down faster than operations increase? Laptops have been getting powerful a lot faster than their batteries, so there's got to be potential there.
The Apple Mac Mini is the guts of a laptop (sans battery, screen, keyboard & mouse). I reused LCD screen & laptop mouse and bought new wired keyboard (I assume higher efficiency than wireless). And I have a UPS already.
I routinely keep Airport turned off and look forward to my Kill a Watt readings.
I think the same approach would work well with servers.
Best Hopes for fuel efficient computing !
Alan
Maybe compared to old mainframes with tapes etc. But in the last decade, power consumption of PCs went up - 3 fold. An old 486 running Windows 1 would consume 150 W, now the latest machines have 450 W, emitting heat of half a simple bar heater. In summer you need an air conditioner of 2 KW to cool your room. Crazy. If you ask in a shop for the power rating of a computer they have no clue. Notebooks are the way to go I think. Good for brown outs, too.
I sold antique pocket and high quality hunting knives on Ebay from 1998 untill 9-11. Prior to 9-11 Ebay was much different than it is now and their site would sometimes crash when closing time on my knives was near. Ebay then was staffed by a lot of volunteers and was not the giant organization that it is today. After 9-11 I found that many of my regular customers had disappeared and that many of the new customers knew nothing about the antique knives that they were purchasing. Knives are graded in a manner similar to coins. It got to be such a nuicance that I just gave it up since I am retired anyway.
I continue to buy on Half.com and sometimes Ebay. If you want a book or dvd that is no longer in print it is easy to find on Half.com, not so in our local used book sellers. Why? because they are selling their used books on Half.com.
Great. Just what we need another guy who thinks he discovered the Internet! Better not let Greyzone get ahold of you! :-]
BTW welcome to TOD!
I am sure it depends on the exact circumstances.
While I am hardly a typical case, I do shop on line quite a bit.
Just as I will cluster errands when driving, I cluster items when shopping. There is no practical way to control when they get delivered, so clustering purchases from multiple vendors does not in general cluster deliveries. However, since shipping charges tend to favor multiple items, I make every effort to order multiple things from a single vendor. They may get split into a couple of deliveries, but most of the time they come together.
I have them deliver to the Post Office whenever possible (many vendors will not ship USPS), or to our local telephone company, which accepts packages for the community, and is across the street from the PO. That adds no extra miles for me to pick up, since I am going to the PO anyway. The UPS or FedEx delivery folks will frequently have multiple drop-offs at the phone company anyway. Of course, getting a delivery to the PO adds no extra delivery miles.
So, instead of going to a mall (a mere 200 mile round trip for me) and buying a half-dozen unrelated items, I will buy a half-dozen related items at a time.
But, suppose I need something specific, like a computer part. I can order on line, wait a couple of days, and pick it up on my way to town on another errand, or I can drive 150 miles round trip to a nearby city in the HOPE that they MIGHT have something appropriate.
Or I can order a pair of slacks that I like on line, or buy whatever happens to be in stock locally, whether I like it or not, or drive 200 miles round trip and HOPE they have something I like.
The first great mail-order wave was Sears back in the 19th century. It made a great many consumer goods available to folks in the countryside that would otherwise have had no access. The second great wave has been Internet shopping, which not only improves access for us, but saves immense amounts of driving.
Long live the InterTubes!
Leanan, I use Half.com to buy used books and dvds that are then shipped media mail. I think in my case the internet is the way to go because I find what I want and its shipped via the postal service which is already up and running to my house 6 days per week. In future I expect the post office delivery to be cut way back but I will still use it because I cannot find what I want locally unless I go to B&N and pay the new price plus tax. It is also 12 miles each way to B&N. I think that in other circumstances you are right. BTW, thanks beau coup for Drum Beat, its a pleasure to connect to like minded others.
Let’s look at the delivery of UK books in France.
Using a bookstore the steps are:
1. Delivery from UK publisher’s depot to France national depot; (fuel, labour and vehicle)
2. Delivery from national depot to retailer; (fuel, labour and vehicle)
3. Customer visits bookstore, has lunch, talks to knowledgeable staff, buys other stuff in other shops, enjoys time.
With internet
1. Publisher delivers to wholesaler who fulfils orders; (fuel, labour and vehicle)
2. Wholesaler stocks on kilometres of shelves using semi-automatic system, electric trolleys and unskilled labour; (Electricity, transport system, labour, computers). {The Amazon fulfilment operation in the UK users lots of East European emigrant labour with a major cost being language training so that staff can read book titles. These centres work 24 hours per day and staff need private transport because public transport doesn’t run nights}
3. Customers browse databases and order (electricity both ends, computers, labour)
4. Customer orders are picked (Electricity, transport system, labour, computers)
5. Each order is packed in a cardboard container with bubble wrap, addressed, loaded in shippers van;
6. Shippers van goes to local depot (fuel , vehicle, and labour)
7. Orders are sorted according to destination and are then transferred to the next stop en route; (electricity , computers, labour);
8 repeat 7 as often as necessary. ( For Amazon to me , the route is Eastbourne (England),, Calais (France) , Cologne(Germany), Paris (France), Nice(France))
9 Local delivery - from last depot to home (fuel, vehicle, labour) let’s say 50 kms round trip with say 100 packets/shift. Delivery staff are supposed to collect sales taxes (VAT) but don’t because the time delay would be enormous. Trucks usually park illegally, blocking other traffic and wasting even more fuel.
Some time I will build a computer simulation but offhand I reckon there is no way a 15 step process can beat a 3 step process, except for the tax collection dodge. That’s the loophole. In the USA too, internet sales don’t pay sales tax. The internet tax subsidy makes corn ethanol look reasonable. But to my mind the most horrible aspect is that a pleasant interaction between people in a bookstore has been replaced by very poorly paid, unskilled serfdom on a conveyor belt.
Where are all the con men now? The Desert Sun has exposed the lunacy of ethanol -- and shown us the true light.
http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070617/COLUMNS0...
And look what happened to Germany and South Africa -- both of them failed to hold out against the regimes that controlled the real oil. Likely that is too simple-minded explanation for their final collapse, but both of them are now strong economies once firmly back in the oil camp (and with minor adjustments in their political structures.)
Today's lineup of stories is just remarkable. People are rushing out to buy pickups and luxury cars, and the Democrats are "Marxists" because they are telling people they shouldn't have them. Bizarroworld
CAFE standards do not tell people which vehicle they may buy. It penalizes the auto companies for not meeting the standards for fuel economy. I am sure these penalties paid by the auto makers would eventually be reflected in the price of the new car.
Better solution is to scrap the CAFE standards an apply a federal tax to gas guzzling autos and small trucks. The use the tax to support research on alternative fuels and making transportation more efficient.
To boost alternative fuels an oil import tax of $10 per barrel going up to $40 per barrel in 8 years should be enacted by US Congress. OPEC is not for fair trade by setting production quotas and prices, so the arguement of protectionism doesn't apply to oil import tax.
Increasing the gas tax will proportionally affect gas guzzlers. Consumers can direct their response to this tax to companies in the form of demand for fuel efficient vehicles
A good idea whose time has not yet come
Even CTL is reasonable with carbon rationing.
There is an extensive TOD discussion of CTL here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/26/23365/4439
I was looking for photos of the Sasoil CTL plant from space. I guess the astronauts could see the cloud of pollution as one of the most noticeable features of South Africa when going over.
I've not found a photo online yet, but that would be interesting tyo see.
CTL seems to me to be self-defeating. why not focus on efficiency instead of consuming more, faster, dirtier energy?
Hi Beggar, sorry if I was unclear but when I said reasonable I didn't mean that that way of production was good, but that through carbon rationing it would be self limiting. I explain more fully if not any better above.
If I have a choice in the matter, which I doubt I will, I would leave the coal in the ground only to be used after we had solved our energy and population problems. I think it is too valuable a resource to burn.
The clarification is helpful, CR.
Pop. overshoot is the bugaboo behind the bugaboo, no doubt.
Yeast in a barrel. Petri in a dish.
Petri was a guy who came up with the dish, not a culture of bacteria, but it still sounds right somehow. Petri in a dish. Hmmmmm.
And it enhances the view!
SASOL was developed when there were sanctions against South Africa and they were cut off from oil, except for some smuggled oil. They did not switch to biofuels but decided to convert some of their coal to liquids (synthetic oil/diesel) as they had much coal, but not as much oil and natural gas (less than 1 tcf). The company has been profitable in the past five years, although the intitial construction costs were high.
Reading about scalebacks in refinery capacity two things occured to me;
We are growing more dependent on foreign oil
We are growing more dependent on exported gas.
It remindes me of something I read in an economics op-ed about America being a Blanch Dubois economy.
"You [we] can always depend on the kindness of strangers"
America needs to wiggle into a nice red hot spagetti strap coctail dress and put on some lipstick.
I can see it now, an obese Lady Liberty trying to attract Johns willing to pay for her services with hydrocarbons.
Kindness does not play a role in the willingness of foriegn countries to supply energy or funding to the US. The current trade regime is based on mutual best interest.
The situation could change completely and the willingness to supply these goods at acceptable rates could come to an end. However, viewing it as "kindness" or "charity" is flat out inaccurate and does not enable a useful analysis of the situation.
doesn't change the point I am making
HELLOOOOOOOOOOOO
P.S. Watch out for the nasty glock she has tucked into her garter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQwM2WKo4jk8&refer=home
Has news of the inpending doom of the housing loans.
Me and my wife were thinking about getting our own place, instead of living in my parent's house and having the cat locked up in the bedroom all the time. But we can't afford the rental costs.
I wonder how many of these folks that have their houses taken from them will become the new class of homeless people?
>I wonder how many of these folks that have their houses taken from them will become the new class of homeless people?
Probably not very many. Three words "Government Bail Out!". Should anything bad happen, Congress has already announced it will bail out all those poor home owners.
"Congress has already announced it will bail out all those poor home owners."
Sorry, not the homeowners, the lenders. They NEVER bail out the people. But I don't think they have the means to pull it off this time. Especially since those mortgages have all been repackaged and sold as bundled financial instruments. Difficult to see who actually holds the mortgage. Saw a recent article about a lawyer saving homeowners from forclosure because lenders couldn't prove they actually held the mortgage.
Hi Folks:
Among other things, I write for a living, and using that skill I've tried to keep my focus on Peak Oil on a daily basis by way of a poety blog on the subject. Anyway, I find it helps to notice things going on and express them as a way of reminding yourself that all of this is very real on a daily basis -- even if I don't have time to read the day's drumbeat. Greg
http://peakoilpoetry.blogspot.com/
Leanan-
What is prOn?.
Is it worth subscribing to this, and should I have a
subscription?.
Perhaps you let me have the benefit of your experience.
:¬)
e.g.,
http://ponyxpress.wordpress.com/if you have to ask, you don't
needwant a subscription.Paris Mayor - Pro Bicycle & Anti Car
Worth a read, although written from the German, and pro-car perspective.
"I drive in a car with a hundred seats: It's called the metro"
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,488359,00.html
Best Hopes for the French,
Alan
Had a good chuckle today reading an article in Commondreams by Caroline Arnold? making a comparison of the current debacle and the Trojan War. The punch line was calling it the Oiliad.
There was also something somewhere about the journalistic problem of what I guess are called homynyms; for example peddle and pedal, or faint and feint. Spellcheck seems to have exacerbated this because people think if the words aren't flashing all must be OK. English seems to be riddled with them.
And then there aree those to whom Homer's last name is Simpson and Trojans are something you wear.
My pet peeves are people who seem to not understand the difference between the words LOOSE and LOSE allied to a complete inability to discern the correct time to use THEIR/THERE/THEY'RE
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
My employer's VP was excited to hire some business process consultants and see "there" results. Being a child of the intertubes back when Netcom was THE ISP, however, I derive much more distress from seeing the two letters in the word "you" removed and shredded into a surplus of apostrophes.
Gee, I thought I was the only one obsessive enough to be driven nuts by the incorrect use of lose and loose... or to be more exact, using "loose" as an all-purpose word and never using 'lose'.
Of course, for those who don't speak english as a first language, it does have stupid and inconsistent rules.
lose, pronounced LOOZ, is the opposite of win.
loose is the opposite of tight.
[/ocd]
Not alone :-)
What really gets my goat is I see more and more professional journalists use LOOSE instead of LOSE. That plus all sorts of other similar errors. I mean, I know that journalistic standards have fallen over the years - but I would AT LEAST expect them to have a better handle on the language than someone like me that was sciences all the way through education. What the hell did these people get their degrees for (degrees for which they had to put in a damn site bloody less work than I did I clearly recall).
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Sloppy spelling and grammar make me [sic]! (hat tip)
Even more disturbing and closer to the main theme are the numerous times I've seen billions confused with millions, (often in relation to various energy numbers). To many people they seem to mean about the same thing.
Your right about that.
Step back,
I understand how one could be depressed from peak oil, but I think one has to have more hope or what is the point of going on in life? Many of you are too quick to trash alternatives. I mean honestly, if you could have taken the money from the absolutely stupid Iraq war and instead invested it into a Manhattan/Apollo/WWII effort to save our planet and find alternative energies, we could easily avoid the catastrophe peak oil will bring. If our nightmare of a president would have on September 12th a, 2001 asked us to unite together and sacrifice for the greater good instead of telling us to go shopping and perpetuating our worthless consumer culture, we would have had the greatest beginning to a new millenium filled with change and hope for a better future. Unfortunately he wasted that amazing opportunity because he's a miserable failure of a human being/president if you can even call him a legitimate president. I certainly don't. But I don't want to start a heated political debate here. I just want to say that me myself, I'm generally known among my friends and family as someone who is not all that optimistic in general, and if I can muster up some hope for the future after reading all this peak oil info, then there definitely is a glimmer of hope. Why don't you stop wasting your time being so damn negative and start taking action for the future and not in a selfish way thinking only about yourselves, moving to a distant farm and stockpiling food and weapons, but taking action in your communities and taking a stand or run for office. Do what Portland Oregon is doing, instigate a peak oil committee and do some publicity on the subject to help people understand peak oil and prepare them for a change of lifestyle. That's all it's going to take. Don't be so fast to disregard alternative energy. It's not going to be a variety of answers that get us through this troubled time. IF we have a combination of wind, solar, conservation, nuclear even, hydro, bio, etc. etc. If you add them all up, they will get us through the crunch. Sure it may be hard giving up many luxuries, but we will adapt and survive. If the funds for the Iraq war where enough to fund half of our electric needs via wind turbines, then why not? Don't come up with some lame excuse why it would be impossible to create these solutions. Show me ways to solve this problem. Stop wasting your breath being so damn negative, especially when you have no reason or proof to be so negative.
I remember when I was a kid and I was very afraid of nuclear war. I spent years worrying about it. What a waste of time. A friend of mine said to me something I'll never forget. He said if there is a nuclear war, you're not going to want to survive, let the bomb fall on our heads. Now this post oil world could be a slow nuclear war in the making or it could be the beginning of a better world and I for one am going to fight to make it a better world for me and my children. As a relatively new father, I'm going to fight like hell to make it a better world. I have the vision and I have the will. TODAY, ON THIS FATHER'S DAY 2007, I call on all you fathers and grandfathers on this forum to join with me and take a stand and fight for our future. Let's take that American spirit, our history of innovation, our outstanding work ethic, our collective wisdom, our great wealth and let's put it to some use. Get off that damn couch, turn off that TV, throw away the junk food, tear up the credit cards. Sure some of you will call me naive, some of you will just brush me off, but I know in my heart and my gut that WE CAN DO THIS. JOIN WITH ME!!!
Greg
I applaud your optimism, but unbridles optimism can result in misplaced investment - which we may not have time or energy for. I think everyone on this site is For alternative energy, but sceptical of the perpetual motion machine hoaxes that will and are being touted as solutions.
i happen to think that solar thermal is our first and best alternative but I could be wrong. I wouldn't want to be wrong on a vast scale. Scepticism beats the hell out of when you wish upon a star, which may make you feel better as you freeze to death. This is serious debate and a healthy scepticism and having to back up your pet theories and projects with factual reality is what it is all about.
It looks like we will have to do something rather shortly with not a lot of actual experience or historical precedent. It will be social, political and technical. Mistakes will probably be made. I've made lots in my time. We're going to have to get this one right the first time. You are right, we can do this - and it won't be by choice. May wisdom prevail. Optimism may be a necessary psychological component but not all rain dances make rain.
Petrosaurus said,
"I applaud your optimism, but unbridles optimism can result in misplaced investment - which we may not have time or energy for."
That is very true. it must be remembered however that unbridled pessimism can cause many missed opportunities and equally misplaced investment. So what to do?
This is why the old standby hedging tools, now seemingly forgotten, still work:
Diversity
Efficiency
Redundancy
The above three points almost explain themselves, and dovetail nicely with a moderate variety of the Westexas ELP (Economize, Localize, Produce)
Diversity of course means alternatives, but they have to WORK. I have complained before that we keep chasing "death by 1000 conversions". Tar sand is a great example, where you start out with what is essentially a strip mining type operation, which has to have a very viable natural gas operation, and then to avoid a flood of released carbon, you attempt to strap on a carbon sequestering operation, oh, and don't forget, you have to refine this stuff into a working motor fuel, so you have to have a specialized conditioning/refining operation We can't even get conventional oil refineries built, but attach it tar sand and we invest billions! I am beginning to think that what we need to do is get permitting in Canada for a "Tar Sand conditioning plant" and build it to handle heavy crude oil, and presto! A refinery!
So idiotic has this Rube Goldberg arrangement become that we are now discusing the possibility of introducing nuclear power plants to the tar sands (to be followed, to be sure, by introducing it to the oil shale developments in the future)
At what point does someone realize that we have let the tail wag the dog, wag the dog, wag the dog, as we refuse to give up on one bad idea and then strap another bad idea to it, then another bad idea to try to save that one....
Of course, this is the very definition of the ethanol industry, with a very heavy consumptive agriculture industry (already Diesel and natural gas hungry) strapped now to the motor fuel industry, and all we have to do is (a)grow more seed corn (b)get more fertilizer (c) have lots of water (d) spread insect and herbicide (e)build new ethanol production plants, (f)Grow the corn (don't forget the weather!), harvest the corn (don't forget to build more farm equipment! (g) Transport the corn to the ethanol plant (h) Distill the corn (i)transport the finished fuel to the market (oh drat, it's corrosive, we need separate tankers, tank cars, barges and pipelines...could that be a problem?
...I will stop at that....it just becomes to wierd to even deal with....and yet people will scream in your face here if you talk about locally produced solar to hydrogen, "the conversion efficiency is too low, you idiot!!!"
Compared to what??
This is what makes the second and third points listed at the opening of this post SO important: Efficiency, Redundancy.
As Petorsauras points out, there is great loss in "misplaced investment - which we may not have time or energy for."
EXACTLY. Why would we invest billions in areas where we know for a fact the source fuel will begin to run short relatively soon? Even if the program works, the capital expense must pay for itself FAST. Use of natural gas in the tar sand industry comes to mind. We must turn to the unlimited sources (principly wind and solar sourced) SOON.
We will have to go to them anyway, skip the death by 1000 conversions.
Redundancy: Back up everything. Forget JIT (Just In Time) if you can arrange strategic reserve and storage, DO IT.
Even if things go relatively well, the cost will be low compared to the alternative of being without.
Use more types of supply. If you have a gasoline car, and know you will get or need a second car, consider making it a Diesel, or LPG, or even electric. We need a transport system spread out on fuel type source, so that gasoline issues alone do not stop the nation. This refinery constrained summer should have taught us something (duh!)
Stay or get spread out so that no one news story or type of crisis stops us dead in the water.
Lastly, in reply to the post that Petro was replying to: CORRECT. Don't dismiss every single alternative. We are simply helping the oil and gas companies with thier "nothing will work except what we sell" propaganda when we do that. If it doesn't work, "PROVE IT" (Robert Rapier's type of work on ethanol is a great example). But if an alternative has not been explored in a real way, please try not to assume before the fact that it will not work. Do not fall in love with the oil god. Oil has many, many weaknesses that have been overcome by a century of sunk costs and externalizing it's weaknesses onto the population.
Be willing to copy, use what we have seen work. We know, let me repeat WE KNOW that humans can live relatively comfortable life on half the energy we use now with NO advances in technology! The Europeans do it!
We KNOW that an economy can withstand gasoline prices well above $5.00 per gallon without major discomfort IF they are organized to do it. How? THE OIL DRUM told us so!
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/GasPrices.png
Norway, for the fourth straight year, has been selected by the United Nations as the best nation in the world in which to live.
The nation with the world's highest gasoline prices, over $7.00 per gallon...would any American believe it?
That's why we read TOD....:-)
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Hi Petro and ThatsIt,
The Treaty of Noordwijk
What do you think about this.
Given that the preamble of that document is full of falsities, it is not surprising that what follows from that is equally poor.
If you do not like the fiat currency model, just become a gold bug and insist on metal backing of currencies.
Hokay, I'm open for your point of view would you mind expanding, full of falsities?
BTW engineer poet suggested I post something more manageable as a starting point. See below.
Nice comment on the growing complexity of problem solving. A solution that is simple is usually also more elegant/economical/sustainable.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
"Norway, for the fourth straight year, has been selected by the United Nations as the best nation in the world in which to live."
It might be all right if you want to freeze for eight months a year. Who in the UN decides these things?
I don´t know who decides it in UN, but you don´t risk malaria, dengue fever, deadly poisonous snakes etc. And they don´t freeze during the winter, they heat their homes, and have it cosy in their cabins.
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2007-04a.htm
http://www.trains.com/ctr/objects/images/railroad_electrification_1970s.gif
Best Hopes,
Alan
Tavor - I think if you take the time to search thru this site and read all the discussions of the myriad options available for our future, on the looming topics such as economic collapse, to climate change, to PO, you will discover that most on this site were not quick to their pessimism.
This site is all about being proactive but without emulating the establishment’s dysfunctional method of running off half cocked wasting time and money such as with Ethanol.
There is also some very bittersweet personal accounts that I find comforting. We are all in this together and you can get a feel for how it will be handled by reading this site regularly.
P.S. The first 5 stages of PO awareness are a bitch
Good luck with that.
This reminds me of a great Winston Churchill quote, "You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing...after they've tried everything else!!".
DD
And when, pray tell, will they have tried everything else???
The whole world is waiting...
Twenty years ago when I first learned about fossil fuel depletion and America's excesses in consuming natural resources, I was optimistic that technology and innovation would lead us to a better future. In the intervening years, I watched as technology and the free market have given us less fuel efficient vehicles and an ever sprawling suburban infrastructure that makes us totally dependent on cheap fossil fuels.
I see little chance of us solving the challenges of PO with technological or market based solutions. Americans are far to consumed with convenience and wealth to be bothered with seeking lasting long-term solutions. Take the recent record high gas prices. The basic laws of supply and demand should be obvious to everyone. If supply is tight, conserve a little and the price will come down. What was the American consumers reaction? Blame the oil companies and complain while filling their 8 MPG SUV's.
After 9/11 it became obvious to me that our reliance on imported oil from the middle east was a fatal flaw in our economy. Our money that goes to Saudi Arabia supports the institutions that I vowed to drive a smaller car (walking and riding a bike when I can) and to conserve as much fuel as possible by not "driving like a jerk". The fact that no politician had the guts to even ask Americans to make this tiny sacrifice (not accelerating like mad just to brake at the next light) while we have our troops in the field, shows just how hollow our society has become.
The one thing that could immediately reduce our energy usage, a tax is politically unviable. It will not be until people are staring at even higher energy prices or shortages until they will figure out the need to act. By that time, it will be too late. Climate change has brought a new awareness of environmental problems, but no one in the MSM or our politicians ever discuss the paradox of unlimited economic growth with limited natural resources.
I hate to sound misanthropic, but our ever burgeoning population and relentless economic growth are destroying the natural world. Loss of species, loss of natural habitats, and loss of biodiversity are happening every day, and each one of us plays a role. We like to imagine that we are above and separate from nature but we will have to learn to live within nature's limits. Europeans looked at aboriginal people around the world and thought they were savages. I look at the destruction of the natural world and the way man treats his fellow man, I see the true savages.
Peace out.
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
What an erudite and insightful post...thank you.
At the moment there is a lack of moral leadership.
You must be quite young - not lived long enough to be cynical of everything.
No, humans will NOT change until they are forced to. You can spend every waking minute trying to educate others about peak oil, completely change your lifestyle to use as little oil as possible, etc., but it is all futile. Your neighbors will laugh at you as they drive away in their 4x4's. Those same unprepared neighbors will also raid your supplies when TSHTF because you've told them you are prepared.
My advice: (a) get your personal life in order (i.e. out of debt, some immediate survival gear, etc.), (b) S.T.F.U. and don't tell your neighbors, friends, external family, etc. that you are stocking up on food, water, etc., and (c) live it up - burn as much oil as your can for your pleasure while it's still cheap because everyone is doing it. Fly around the world and visit the places you won't be able to after P.O. Drive around in a sports car, feel the torque of a V8, etc. Enjoy the 5,000 mile Caesar salad, tropical fruit in the winter, etc. I do. And I'll be damned if I'll change my lifestyle while oil is still cheap - if I don't buy the cheap oil product, someone else will so I might as well enjoy it myself.
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. You seem like you've hit acceptance, whereas our "relatively new father" friend Greg has just hit the denial phase pretty hard. Contemplating the constraints to oil production can take a while. For me, it helped to use a calculator and a thick pad of paper as I waded through reams of research--quantifing how many solar cells, or windmills, or nuclear plants were going to be required, and in what time frame. When I did that, it became very obvious that getting off the couch, TV, junk food, etc would do little to help the average Joe. Some will succeed, most won't, and I'm going to enjoy the oil while its cheap too.
Travor,
Let me take you to the end game.
The human brain is a freakish result of random evolution. It is not designed for long term thinking.
When Congressman Roscoe Bartlett brought Peak Oil to President Bush's attention, GWB's response was this: I appreciate what you say. But there are "urgent" matters and there are "important" matters. PO is important. But it ain't "urgent". [Playing Cowboys 'n Muslims, now that there is "urgent".] --last part in brackets is made up, a joke, ha ha, on us; the owners of the monkey brains.
Hmmm...
...and as a great writer and intellectual once said, if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Kill A Watt for Public Use
I just bought five Kill A Watts (plug in electric meters that show how much power each appliance, electronic device, etc. is using. I will donate these to the local Green Project (recycled building materials) here in New Orleans and they will lend them out (I get one on "extended loan" :-)
If this works out, I may donate more to the local library or neighborhood groups.
$99.95 for five (free shipping) at
http://www.SuperMediaStore.com
Best Hopes for many small conservation steps,
Alan
I loaned mine to a friend and now he can't stop monitoring the usage of various appliances in his home.
He is extremely relieved that his heated tropical fishtank takes so little energy... (good for raising Red Claw crayfish maybe ??? Fascinating to watch and delicious to eat...).
Warnings of 'Internet Overload'
Peak 'Net???? Now that's a real kick in the pixels! But, but, this is the Information Age!! Information will solve all our problems, won't it? I had a plan, when there's no gasoline, to run my car purely on Information. And Information sandwiches for lunch. Of course I'll heat my house in the winter with Information.
Damn, another fine plan shot ta hell...
As the Google Guys said to Jim Kunstler in response to a presentation he gave them, "But dude, we've got technology!"
And that's why I would respond to the Google Guys, "Dude, that's why I buy Books! John
it will, but not because of overuse.
most likely it will collapse due to under use. internet access is a luxury, and will be on the chopping block for many people when their budgets get tight and have to cut back somewhere to keep food on the table and the lights on.
thats if the fact that the ipv4 address system is running low on free adresses, while at the same time everyone is not adopting ipv6 as fast as they want or at all(means replacing most of the current infrastructure)
Remember that movie "Dude, Where's my car"?
http://www.foxhome.com/dude/
The Sequel will be "Dude, Where's my Power?" with tattoos: "Outa Gas" and "Outa work"
Maybe we should have a beauty contest and elect a 'Miss Information Age'.. Do you think they'd get it?
I am constantly concerned about a big Net crash, whether it's viruses, power-loss, data-lines.. there's just so much activity that depends on it (blindly).. how many offices, stores or hospital desks have you seen that are pretty much paralyzed when the network or the internet is down?
I am encouraged that we haven't converted to more 'dumb workstations and a smart hub'.. since PC's are still capable of a lot of autonomy, but I think we need to have some parallel backups available for switching over to other communication systems. Phone Modems for starters.. slow but can get vital data across. Packet Radio, etc.
Regarding the above article:
Higher gas prices fueling the demand for scooters
The article states that 50cc scooters get about 85 mils per gallon. That concurs with my experience. Scooters get much worse gas mileage than small motorcycles, such as as the Honda Cargo 125cc (made in Mexico) that I mentioned in Drumbeat yesterday (it gets 130mpg). Even a Honda 250cc Nighthawk gets about 95mpg.
Not only do those 2-stroke engines have lousy fuel efficiency; they make a cloud of oil smoke as well : (
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
Don'tcha know that the current slang by the super rich to describe their private jets is 'scooter'? "I took the scooter to LA."
Hi Notintodenial,
Yes, you're correct. Most (if not all) 50cc scooters are two-stroke engines. They are polluting, noisy and get poor gas mileage. They're mainly popular in third world countries because they're cheap. Then again, the USA is becoming a third world country, in more ways than one.
You'll know we're in trouble when you start seeing donkey carts on the highway.
happy weekend,
Robert
Despite the fact that I owned not one but two Vespas in the distant past, it amazes me that suchlike things still sell. It must be the enveloping bodywork and floorboards that give a certain carlike ambiance to the naive. From a functional POV the bodywork is pretty useless at keeping your lower regions dry although your feet stay warmer. The small wheels put the dynamic centre so far below the center of gravity that stablity is only an illusion that is easily overcome.
For some reason that I haven't been able to fully comprehend, the center of motion of the motor seems to have to be in line or below the axle centerline. The center of gravity can be higher?? but not the crank. You see this on mountain bikes as soon as the cranks get over 13" on 26" wheels. It only matters if you get out of 'shape' and need to get it all lined up again. As an old motocross guy I know all too much about that.
So the dinky donut wheels aren't really safe and ultimately stable, assuming any two wheeler can be. They do take up less space and one can carry a spare and they come off with the familiar lug wrench. Usually the drive is direct to the back wheel as the motor pivots with it. Cheap and simple, yes. A good idea?
I put about 20,000 miles on Vespas on the back roads and tracks of New Zealand and let me assure you that staying upright on such a dynamically challenged device in the deep gravel backroads required all the skills of a motocrosser, constantly, whereas a normal motorbike was a yawn.
Encountering a spot where a herd of sheep had crossed the road - at night, with a 25 watt headlight, in a light rain... sheep seem to have incontinence problems over pavement. Too much Guinness - it says it's good for you in the ads - and a 50 lb sack of carrots on the floorboards which may or may not have helped. Yes, I had to clean my shoe, and almost my pants, but not the carrots.
Yes, scooters. There's a magic all right, but only for the follies of youth. They really give two wheeled transport a worse name than it already has. The transporter of the future is not an open two or three wheeled device except for the immortal youth.
I get tons of great information and such from TOD, but it's vignettes like this that make me come back daily. :-)
My two-stroke 50cc Puch Maxi Luxe used to get 120 mpg.
Do you have any links to these figures? I'd really be interested in mileage numbers for small motorcycles and scooters, but the US government doesn't seem very motivated to provide them...
It's the scooters with the centerifugal(centerifical?) clutch that get poor milage.
This doesn't seem like a very good refutation to his premise that "Democrats Think You’re Too Stupid To Figure Out Which Cars To Drive ".
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
This housing crash is getting very ugly...coupled with rising food and energy costs...the baby boomers are in a bad place.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20060601-blumentha...
Maybe a baby boomer bailout in the works...eh?
So let's get this straight...someone who could swing a loan for a 4 million fvckin dollar vacation home in Naples Fl, not a first home MIND YOU, but a second home in one of the single most expensive real estate markets in North America is now going to suddenly be sent into a panic by fook and energy costs!!!! :-O
O.K., and I am supposed to GIVE A SHIIT if these over rich over invested fvckers lose their mistress bait, exactly why???
There is a point at which the search for an emergency becomes absolutely psychotic.
And we have REAL PROBLEMS in housing. If you don't believe it, check out James Howard Kunstler:
http://www.kunstler.com/eyesore_200704.html
Yes, EASTER BUNNIES, the ruin of once beautiful urban living!!! :-O
I know being wierd is kind of chic right now, but like Michael Jackson or Paris, it is finally possible to be just TOO DAMM WIERD.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Roger - that was funny!!!
To top the easter bunny...the subprime contagion is set for the next, more deadly second wave.
http://www.housingwire.com/2007/06/16/abx-indices-heading-down-again
Unfortunately - this is gonna hurt even those with fixed 30 year mortgages with 6% interest.
Roccman,
We have an even wilder situation in my local area of Kentucky (Hardin County, next to the Fort Knox milatary reservation)
Just as the housing boom took off, the United States military announced thier base realignment. Lo and behold, Fort Knox was penned to get a couple extra battalions of troops, complete with dependents.
The house building boom WENT WILD. We are now buried in hastily thrown up, over expensive McMansions stacked against roadsides, packed almost one on top the other, and they are still building them, because, "hey, we have a different situation, we have troops coming to buy them." (?)
We will leave aside how many troops want to buy instead of rent, knowing they will be shipped right back out before long. We will leave aside that the number of houses already exceed the number of troops scheduled to come here.
Here's the good part: Now the government says the troops may not get here until 2012, depending on "logistical" need!
Many of these over expensive houses are already finished, sitting with the lights on, but nobody home, waiting for the new buyer, who won't get here for 5 years!
And now, the newspapers and TV are acting like this is supposed to be MY emergency!!
The banks and contrractors took a chance. We will see how it plays out. If they win, they win, and I am glad for them (us Kentuckians are always happy to see more rich Kentuckians!)
But if they lose, tough shiit. it was thier choice to take the chance.
This whole "mortgage crisis" crap is just one more way to, as George Will used to say "privatize gains and socialize losses."
I will be happy to wait for these houses to come on the auction block for young families at a 40 percent discount. The only problem is, even at a 40% discount, most of these thrown together cracker jack boxes will still be far overpriced.
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Roger, thats a hoot! Interestingly last year was the first on record where more people moved out of Florida than moved in. Since Floridas economy is based on continual growth and tourisim (not exactly booming) the politicians, realtors, renters, tourisist based biz, are pitching a hissy fit. At the recent state legislative session in Tallahassee all the work was on lowering taxes. Example: because of the real estate tax structure here I cannot move out of the 4 bedroom home that we raised children in and into a smaller home without doubling or even quadrupling my taxes. A 'save our homes' ammendment that was passed years ago has locked most long time home owners in Florida into their current homes. As usual, the 'fix' that the politicians came up with is a bizzaro compromise that is going to help no one very much.
I would like very much to see a survey of those that moved out of Fl. the last couple of years to find out WHY they moved out. Some have gotten the message on climate change but not many. New construction here is all but stopped. Wages are notoriously low. Rents have gone through the roof and now taxes have gone through the roof if you are not grandfathered in under the old tax scheme. I dont see connections to PO directly but there might be some. The state has capped new local taxes and cut back on taxes year over year but not enough to do any good. The local governments used the giant tax collections of the housing boom years to build rediculous projects that now have to be maintained. The local politicians are not the brightest bulbs on the tree since most came to politics from real estate. I dont see any good solutions unless they scrap the entire tax structure and start from scratch and I dont think they are qualified to take on such a project. Actually, the entire bunch of local and state politicians in Florida are about as qualified as those that Bush sent to Iraq to run the show...your doin a hellofa job Brownie...
"Interestingly last year was the first on record where more people moved out of Florida than moved in."
Maybe they saw "An Inconvenient Truth"?
Well, hate to state the obvious, but the baby boomers - or to steal and pervert a title for another demographic, the Selfish Generation, that followed the Greatest Generation - are the ones that have caused all of this shit that the Gen Xers and beyond are having to figure out how to deal with.
Sadly my lot (Gen Xers - zombied out on bad schooling and pointless mcjobs) seem to be a little shy of picking up the ball and running with it, at least here in the US, though slightly less so back home in Europe.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
The only thing baby boomers are guilty of is being born - the children of the "greatest generation" who couldn't keep figure out how to use a condom. The so-called "gen xers" should stop whining and deal with reality.
The country stood at a fork in the road in 1980. In retrospect, if we had continued on the path that Carter had started us down, we would be in a much better position to face the peak oil crisis today. We would have made huge investments in energy efficiency, and development of renewable energy resources would be much farther along. We made the wrong choice.
Who made the wrong choice? The last boomers were born in 1965. In 1980 they were only 15 years old and not even at voting age yet. For the majority of boomers who were at voting age, this was just their 1st or 2nd or at most 3rd presidential election where they could vote. They were by no means the majority of the electorate.
So why put all the blame on this one group?
1) because i am cranky and irritable at the moment
2) cos i really do think that the biggest portion of the blame for the mess we are in falls with boomers - though in a slightly more complex argument than i made here
...but as for the 1980 thing - that is a red herring - most boomers WERE voting, throughout the eighties and nineties which has been the biggest part of the time in question... and most boomers were born in the ten years 1945-1955 so were voting by then...
the boomer demographic has been pandered too for much longer
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
"Phoenix in recent years has been overrun by property flippers from California, says Mike Messenger, president of Russ Lyon Realty in Scottsdale. But unit sales now are down by 40%-42%, and the city's inventory of unsold homes has shot up more than five-fold, to 39,000."
Are there really people who choose to live in (even retire to) Phoenix? What a dump, even with cheap oil, or especially with cheap oil.
Well, they will not have to freeze 8 months a year (an exaggeration BTW) in Norway.
Winter weather is quite pleasant, and for snowbirds that is all that matters.
Air pollution is down in the winter as well. Traffic is supposedly worse though (add 100,000s of retirees plus those servicing them are busier).
Lots of former athletes go there. And they have an industry there to cater to the idle rich (see Scottsdale).
If one WANTS social isolation (note the high % of walls EVERYWHERE), there is no better place except deep in the countryside. And many Americans have no concept of beauty or beautiful urban cityscapes.
Summers can be tolerated (not too bad after dark and early morning) by living entirely in air conditioned space.
Best Hopes for the depopulation of massive suburbia/exurbia,
Alan
Hello TODers,
Las Vegas, Nevada is presently supplied with refined fuels by a single pair of 550 mile long, 14-inch & 8-inch PARALLEL PIPELINES from California; Vegas is therefore at the extreme eastern end of the CA spiderweb infrastructure [See Kinder-Morgan PDF link below].
Recall my long ago email to President Bush asking him to rectify this situation from a national security viewpoint. Alas, No reply.
My Asphalt Wonderland has TWO NON-PARALLEL PIPELINES: one from CA, the other from TX. By Phx having two different geographically far-flung sources--this is currently much safer for Westexas's Exportland Modeling as applied internal to the US, specifically AZ. But because Phx is at the ends of these two pipelines: it eventually will not bode well for our local postPeak future, but it is slightly marginally better than Las Vegas' present situation.
Generally, gasoline prices are 0.10-0.20/gal higher in Vegas than Phx because demand is supply limited by this current limited CA-NV pipeline capacity.
http://www.phoenixgasprices.com/
http://www.vegasgasprices.com/
Although plans are being laid for additional supply to Vegas, if world Peakoil hits hard soon: I strongly doubt this additional PARALLEL PIPELINE will ever be completed:
http://www.kindermorgan.com/news/102006OilDaily.pdf
Additionally, because this proposal is to run PARALLEL to the existing pipelines--it does not add to future Las Vegas security. I would argue that it would be safer to run a non-parallel pipeline from TX or some other eastern source. That way if the CA refineries or CA infrastructure goes down by fire, earthquake, terrorism, electrical blackouts, strikes/rioting, etc--Vegas won't suddenly find itself high & dry.
The worst case scenario would be a massive earthquake hitting southern CA in the summertime: Las Vegas [and many other parts of CA, AZ, NV] would rapidly decline into an INVERSE-NOLA--all kinds of vehicles running out of fuel in the middle of the blazing desert in their efforts to evacuate-- not much fun for the gambling Vegans suddenly caught short of water/fuel/food and lifesaving A/C. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Actually, it might be a good idea to invest in companies making tanker trucks--as dwindling gasoline supplies are frantically shipped from low bidders to high bidders around the country.
Bad idea; it depends on demand remaining high (and people not getting wise). Once demand falls a bit, the pipeline network will have plenty of excess capacity. A few percent and the refineries will be down to the high 80's and be de-bottlenecked too.
Hi EP, WT,
Question: If we drop below MOL on pipelines, do they become useless?
Or is it possible to encapsulate a bolus of fluid (gasoline, etc.,) between pigs and keep using the pipeline below MOL?
EP, WT: TOD: Thanks for all you do.
Nerv
www.ppsa-online.com/about-pigs.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipeline_inspection_gauge
You can't run an empty pipeline. The pipeline just pumps slower and takes longer to deliver what's put in.
Depending on the product, there can be a minimum flow rate. Seperation can occur at very low flow rates.
I THINK a problem for BP @ Prudhoe Bay. Production had fallen so far, that water was separating from crude in transit and collecting with bits of sulfur...
BP is replacing the old pipeline with a much smaller one.
Alan
Hello EP,
Good points. But eventually, these pipelines will be regularly attacked by the desperate locals just like presently ongoing in Iraq and Nigeria. I wonder how long it will take before the Colton-Vegas tanker run [230 miles or 370km], or Long Beach-Vegas [284 miles or 457 km] becomes more dangerous per mile than the present Umm Qasr seaport-Basra-Baghdad tanker run [362 miles or 582 km]?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello WT,
Thxs for responding. Yep, it would be very difficult, but it sure would be interesting to apply your ELM to the major cities in North America.
Consider postPeak Vegas: as FF prices spiral ever higher, eventually the town devolves towards a ghost town. At some price point: the shrinking volume sent thru the pipeline goes below the MOL and it is eventually shutdown, with the ever decreasing supply sent by long-distance tanker rigs escorted by heavy armor and snipers.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This is interesting:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
By my quick count, the Big Island of Hawaii had 67 earthquakes over mag 2.5 TODAY. Yes, today, in one day.
Hmmmm.....I'm suddenly glad I live on the EAST coast now...
Hello Sunspot,
Thxs for the info. It is important to remember that all the Hawaiian Islands are like volcanic icebergs-- the part above sealevel is a very small fraction of the base that extends thousands of feet down to the seafloor.
Therefore, it is entirely natural for landslides to periodically break off causing huge tsunamis as they tumble down. Geologists have found chunks of coral way up on steep slopes from events like this in the past. Perhaps these mini-quakes are precursor symptoms of the next event.
Of course, we cannot rule out a future volcanic explosion either, but generally these volcanoes ooze lava vs blowing their stack like Mt. Saint Helens did years ago. The big risk would be if seawater suddenly penetrates into the magma tunnel--then it blows up huge like Krakatoa.
From May 24,2007:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/24/america/NA-GEN-US-Hawaii-Earth...
----------------------
HILO, Hawaii: An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.7 struck beneath the Kilauea volcano's east rift zone Thursday and was followed by several smaller aftershocks on the Big Island of Hawaii.
The U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said the temblor was the largest in that particular area in at least the last 50 years. Since 1998, only a few earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 4.0 have occurred at shallow depths beneath the upper-east rift zone.
----------------------------------------
Unfortunately, this article doesn't specify if these earthquakes in the rift zones were below sea-level or not. But volcanic fissures in rifts only further help split an island apart increasing the landslide risk.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/events/1868_04_03.php
-------------------
Ka'u District, Island of Hawaii
1868 04 03 02:25 UTC (04/02/1868 local)
Magnitude 7.9
Largest Earthquake in Hawaii
A mass of earth as much as 3 kilometers wide and 9 meters thick swept down the hillside at Kapapala, carrying with it trees, animals, and people. Thirty-one people were killed.
A tsunami that struck the Kau-Puna coast added to the devastation. The waves were most destructive at Honuapo, Keauhou, and Punaluu. At Keauhou (now Keauhou Landing) the water rose 12-15 meters, destroying all the houses and warehouses and drowning 46 people.
-----------------------------------
AFAIK, it is impossible to predict the frequency and severity of large events like those mentioned above. In the meantime: Hurricanes, Peakoil, and GW will continue to chew away at the surface of Hawaii like termites hidden inside a house.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Geologists doing sea floor surveys as far back as the mid 1950s found chunks of lava as big as manhattan on the bottom that had calved off from the islands of Hawaii. Other geologists looking for evidence of tsunamis in California found individual rocks normally found only in the valleys of California over a thousand feet up in the mountains that could only have been moved by a tsunami. Sh*t happens.
http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/earthquakes/oraltraditions.htm
Although I did a google search I could not find reference to the research on the huge tsunamis that have hit California in the past. Google has been flooded with reports of recent incidents.
...huge tsunamis that have hit California in the past. Google has been flooded...
:0
Oh noes!
Anyone,
The Treaty of Noordwijk
What do you think about this.
I think you need to link to a one-paragraph introduction, because nobody's going to read all of that just to find out what the heck you're talking about.
Anyone,
The Treaty of Noordwijk
What do you think about this it seems to attempt to deal with carbon emissions globally and fairly. As the preamble states:
· Put a genuine world currency into circulation for the first time.
· Limit the level of global economic activity to the maximum compatible with the Earth's environmental health.
· Bring about a fairer distribution of the Earth's resources.
· End most Third World debt.
· Provide annual funding for improved health, educational and social services.
· Give national governments more power over international investors and speculative
currency movements.
· Remove the necessity for countries to achieve economic growth purely to avoid financial collapse in circumstances in which the growth is known to be environmentally and socially damaging.
· Make national economies much more stable.
· Allow countries to move towards sustainability as rapidly as they would wish rather than the pace of the slowest.
· Remove the unfair built-in advantages enjoyed by countries issuing 'hard' currencies in the present global financial system.
The idea that intrigues me is that a decision as to how much carbon can be emitted in the world yearly would be established and then this amount divided amongst all the people of the earth, each country gets a population dependent total emission credit. If you are a low user then you can sell your excess credits to someone who has higher emissions and need the credits. It seems to brings carbon trading down to a personal and equitable level.
I think this is roughly the idea or rather roughly part of it .
I don't know that much about economics but I'm willing to put in my two cents about this. I think citizens in debt ridden "third world" nations will think it's a great idea. The top 5%, not so much.
· Put a genuine world currency into circulation for the first time.
In America, there seems to be a great distrust of a global government. American politicians have long placed the blame of many of the world's ills on the shoulders of the UN. There is also quite a bit of nationalism rampant in the US today. I think it would be more difficult to get Americans to part with the dollar than getting the Brits to part with the pound.
· Limit the level of global economic activity to the maximum compatible with the Earth's environmental health.
I guess the obvious question is who gets to determine "environmental health"? It seems like it would be difficult to reach a consensus about something like this. In our country we can't even agree whether macro evolution takes place or whether anthopogenic climate change is a problem. One man's environmental "rape" is another man's "progress".
Can the Earth support 6 billion and maintain "environmental health"? I tend to doubt it, but others may disagree.
· Bring about a fairer distribution of the Earth's resources.
This is one of the crux issues. We typically look at countries around the world and wonder, "Why are they so screwed up?" It's easy to ignore the historical exploitation that has taken place by western businesses and governments.
Again, the bottom 50% would probably love to see a shift in resource distribution, but those on top won't be nearly as enthusiastic about it.
· End most Third World debt.
But how else would we keep the poor people in line? John Perkins' Confessions of an Economic Hitman is an excellent read about how the US has used debt to create a global empire.
Of course, if we only we could write off our own 9 trillion...
· Provide annual funding for improved health, educational and social services.
We can't even make these things work well in our own country. Until we move from a society that values consumption and profit over individuals, education, health and social services will always be substandard.
· Give national governments more power over international investors and speculative
currency movements.
I like this idea. I suspect that the people with all the money again don't share my enthusiasm.
· Remove the necessity for countries to achieve economic growth purely to avoid financial collapse in circumstances in which the growth is known to be environmentally and socially damaging.
This goes back to replacing capitalism with something else.
What is that something else?
· Make national economies much more stable.
I'm not an economist and I don't play one on TV.
· Allow countries to move towards sustainability as rapidly as they would wish rather than the pace of the slowest.
Amen. Sustainable growth in terms of finite resources is an oxymoron.
· Remove the unfair built-in advantages enjoyed by countries issuing 'hard' currencies in the present global financial system.
Again, this would be a hard sell to the haves.
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
"Sustainable growth in terms of finite resources is an oxymoron"
Surely that depends how we define growth. I personally very much want to see that the human race continues to develop technologically (or we won't survive all that long anyway - so why bother doing anything?), and develop economically in the sense that all of us have a reasonable level of economic freedom. There's no reason in principle this can't be achieved with the restriction of finite material resources: our potential energy supply is essentially unlimited, and all materials can be recycled eventually. Now, I fully accept that our current method of economic growth is completely unsustainable, and we've almost certainly left it too late to change smoothly and completely voluntarily, but even in the worst case scenario of total collapse of civilisation and population decimation, there's absolutely no reason we can't recover and continue to develop as a species and a culture, the same way we have at various times in the past. Hopefully the lessons learned won't be forgotten. And hopefully the lessons won't be too painful (although arguably, the less painful they are, the more likely we are to forget them and revert to our old short-sighted ways).
<< DOUBLE POST DELETED >>
They left out a repeal of that unfair 2nd law of thermodynamics. That pesty entropy thing keeps getting in the way of all the good stuff we'd like to do!
;-)
Entropy = politician?
There are some other good ideas out there but they all come back to those two things that the the U S led Western governments would not accept, Equality and Equity.
:>$)
Since you broke out this topic from the above thread I will reply here...
Fundamentally the proposal to which you linked is flawed in that it does not address a problem, as in a single issue, but tries to cover a very large set of issues which homo sapiens face, with a proposal that is at the same time too simplistic (doesn't cover enough externalities) and too complicated (implementation issues.)
The fundamental premises are flawed:
Oh? Compared to when and where ? Dial back your time machine a few centuries, before indoor plumbing, sewer systems, potable water or at least treatable water, etc. Compare then to now (with your toilet and toilet paper.) The "economy" that has brought about your modern water system in many places of the world looks pretty damn good compared to, say, the 17th century, or 8th century, or the era of the great empires of old.
A curve ball if there ever was one... Since when has man not affected his environment? If you accept the man was at least a contributing factor (if not the primary cause) in the disappearance of the large mammals from North America a few thousand years ago, then you have to accept that even when only numbering in the tens of thousands man has caused effects upon the earth. The omnivore Homo sapiens has successfully out-competed the other large omnivores (the bears) and the large carnivores. We have and always will be affecting our surroundings.
The only way to minimize these effects is to limit the human population significantly... but there is no one above us on the food chain to do that. So we are left, once again, with talking about population reduction. Voluntary or involuntary.
This subject comes up all the time here... and always the same wall is hit.
Anyway... I could go on and on about that preamble. Too grandiose of statements, with too many implications, and some statements are just misleading. But the kicker is in the punch line:
Given this is TOD, the often given villain (in what led to man destroying the earth) is the discovery of oil in 1859 via a well, the beginning of the age of oil. Nevertheless, if one only wants to speak of economics, the issues of the latter half of the 20th century between nations began (or were seeded) before 1944. The usual fault (in those so inclined to white guilt) underlying the problem of the "third" world ( = the "brown" people) is the slave trade of the 16th, 17th, and 18th centuries concomitant with European colonization.
I find it difficult to lay the world's ills at the feet of a financial/banking agreement made in 1944.
Likewise, I find it even more difficult to imagine salvation of the world through a currency scheme.
For example, your claim (made below) about increasing the "fairness" between nations. What you may consider "fair"... I don't know, but it might be what I could call "strange", "unsustainable", or even "perverse". Likely I would call it "theft" as your goal would need to have some sort of forced redistribution of wealth (land, goods, precious items.)
Grandiose schemes of salvation... they all run down, if they ever get off the ground in the first place.
Rather than trying to lay the blame at the feet of the (according your link and proposed treaty) un-naturally strong dollar and influence of the US (and by extension the US Fed Reserve system), I suggest a better approach to solving the ills of the world's future would be to invest in alternative energy development (wherever) and innovations that allow one to do more meaningful work with less energy expenditure. Those are the real issues of our future, to which all currency systems will bow.
InJapan,
Amen!
By the way, did I remenber to say, AMEN! :-)
RC
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Consumers group trips, consumers won't group trips.
Consumers stop buying trucks; nothing will stop consumers from buying trucks.
The Jerusalem of India runs out of water. OK, exactly how is it and where is it that Varanasi is "known as the Jerusalem of India"?
And yes, it sucks to be Hindu; it's *their* desire for cars in the future that is drying up the river *now*. They need to stop wanting so much. Stop wanting to be like the richer rulers.
News by and for white the imperialist and racist.
cfm in Gray, ME
http://freddy08.imeem.com/video/M1SqhiqE/full_sicko_michael_moore_2007/
Moore does not seem to mind this is free.
Based on what?
__________________________________________________
edit: did my own research, apparently it's true: from Moore's own website: "Separately, Moore said he would not prosecute those already circulating bootleg copies of the still-unreleased documentary on the Internet. "I'm happy for people to see my movie. I'm not a big fan of the copyright laws in this country," he said"
...it's *their* desire for cars in the future that is drying up the river *now*
Factually wrong.
It is the carbon emissions of the 1920s, 1930, 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and more recent carbon emissions plus ALL of the freon ever released plus methane within the last decade or two that is warming the earth TODAY (last five years emissions of all types have relatively minimal impact due to time delays per theory).
Desire does no harm, until fulfilled. One can hardly ascribe even 1% of TODAY"S GW to the Indian population. They are relatively sinless so far. GW of the 2030s may well be another matter.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Hello TODers,
Another reason for Middle Eastern FF-exporters to quickly move to bicycles and wheelbarrows, but GE already knows there is much more money to be made by selling further comfort & ease:
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article...
-----------------------------------------
Bright ideas
Among the key topics addressed was the rise of diabetes. According to the International Diabetes Federation 2007, the UAE ranks second highest worldwide for diabetes prevalence, followed by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait. Using a study conducted in 2000 by the UAE Ministry of Health, which showed that approximately half the population affected by diabetes in the UAE were unaware that they were suffering from condition, GE used the summit as a vehicle to propose changing the focus of healthcare delivery from treating late stage chronic diseases, to earlier prediction and diagnosis.
"In addition to proposing an ‘Early Health' model, we are advocating how to bring in total healthcare solutions," says Habayeb. "For instance, we are working to make hospitals and clinics more efficient by digitising them and implementing a ‘paperless' hospital concept. And this is for both private and public healthcare."
------------------------------
My guess is bicycle sales and exercise clubs are a very small percentage of Middle Eastern GDPs. What they really need to do to increase their societies' physical health is make sports like marathon running through blazing sand dunes wildly popular. Oh well.
EDIT: Eventually, Nature will force them back to the historical Bedouin tradition of oasis to oasis survival.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
An old saying among Saudis...My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a Mercedes, I fly in a Gulfstream, My son will ride a camel...
reality is not optional
Not *that* old - according to Wikipedia, it was spoken by the previous (and late) emir of Dubai, and actually goes
"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel".
He was referring to the fact that Dubai's oil reserves were likely to last only another 2 decades.
Very picky! Why screw up a good quote with the truth? lol
"My father rode a camel, I drive car, my son flies a jet, my grandson will ride a camel".
Hello River and Musashi,
Thxs for responding. Yep, this quote makes me wonder when the ME countries will want to use the remaining portion of their fossil fuels to run their superhuge desalination plants full-blast to fully replenish their aquifers to maximize the future numbers of natural surface springs and oases [yes, that is the correct plural spelling of oasis].
Since they already deeply cultural acknowledge an eventual return to their ancient nomadic lifestyle: it only makes sense to create as many convenient survival outposts as possible among the desert dunes so that future offspring and their camel trains have the best possible postPeak chance.
What would be interesting is to know is: just how much desalinized water would that goal require to be safely met?
My earlier GE link outlined future desalination plant building growth--it could really start to effect WT's ELM.
Zounds! Life imitating Frank Herbert's DUNE. Water will always be more precious than 'Spice'.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
Now that it is Hotter'n Hell in the desert you can expect reports of people dying to get out of Mexico. Please contrast with this:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070617/NEWS07/70617068...
--------------------------------------
Dying to get out of Zimbabwe: Thousands sneak into South Africa
They hunker by the hundreds in the riverside brush, waiting for nightfall to crawl under a porous border fence. Grim-faced law-enforcement agents hunt them down in trucks equipped with flashing police lights.
So do posses of angry civilians, most of them white, many of them armed.
Squint, and the scene could pass for the banks of the Rio Grande between the United States and Mexico -- except, that is, for the jaded baboons ambling among the humans on the bridges and a sign identifying this muddy waterway as the Limpopo River, the troubled frontier between Zimbabwe and South Africa, and the finish line for one of the largest illicit migrations in the world.
"They get robbed and raped by criminals, extorted by our cops, and eaten by crocodiles," Jacob Matakanye, a South African human-rights advocate, said of the tens of thousands of undocumented Zimbabweans who have used this remote port of entry. "That doesn't stop them. Nothing does."
------------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
If the measure of an illegitimate government is one that people are literally dying to get away from, this argues for the replacement of the regimes of both Zimbabwe and Mexico.
Hello TODers,
This just hit the WWWeb at Associated Press
Article Last Updated: 06/17/2007 11:35:26 PM CDT:
http://www.twincities.com/allheadlines/ci_6165777
----------------------------------------------------
Oil refiners trim expansion plans, adding to gas price:
Companies wary of ethanol's political support
...Richard Blumenthal, the attorney general of Connecticut, wants Congress to require refiners to maintain a supply cushion in case of unexpected shortages...
--------------------------------------------
IMO, Congress and the API constantly butting heads will get us nowhere fast. Corporate JIT inventories will only get smaller as the price of fuels rise and the infrastructure spiderweb shrinks.
I really wish somebody influential would push my idea for Hell's Angels gas-stations. Recall my numerous earlier posts on this subject.
By allowing everyone to safely store and personally arbitrage their own fuel supplies--it neatly solves this unexpected shortage problem till TS really HTF. It allows the consumer to personally decide whether they want to store the FF of their choice and/or ethanol. These stations could be easily setup to hold personally arbitraged tanks of propane, kerosene, fertilizers, etc, too.
Congress would be happy [voters off their backs], the API would be happy [they shift inventory storage risk and $$ to the detritovore], and the consumer would have less worries too [pedaling biosolars could save $$ compared to the HUMMER addicted detritovore]. IMO, it would also greater leverage Peakoil Outreach to the huddled masses as these gas-stations became operative in your neighborhood.
EDIT: this idea is just a cheap 'everyman' version of Richard Rainwater's personal 500 gallon storage tanks. Rex Tillerson probably owns a gas-station near his house--no worries about a personal shortage for him.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I assumed that all posters on TOD already had at least three months fuel for their vehicles stored at home. I guess not? In Florida storing fuel for your generator is just an extension of hurricane preparedness. Now many supermarkets and gas stations have genreators as well. In 2004 when folks were trying to evacuate the path of three hurricanes power would often fail at service stations and people were stranded on the roads with their empty vehicles. Supermarkets were closed because all of their refrigerated products had gone bad due to power outages. Floridians were challenged with a steep learning curve in that memorable year.
I rotate the fuel into my vehicles ever couple of months in order to keep it fresh. Is this hoarding? I dont think so and other Fl residents dont consider it as such. The governor mandated the generators for the gas stations and FEMA reimbursed many low income families that had purchased generators and chainsaws. In 2004 time Jeb Bush was governor and it was an election year, I doubt we would see the same FEMA response now.
I assumed that all posters on TOD already had at least three months fuel for their vehicles stored at home
Since I refuel every 2.5 months (if I run my car to empty, which I do NOT do June to October) and I have four old 5 quart motor oil bottles full of diesel, I guess I do keep about 3 months worth stored.
The former motor oil bottles are if time is limited and and I cannot refill in town, I can get at least to Tuscaloosa even with 12 hours of stop & go traffic (I refueled just north of Birmingham during Katrina after 8 hours of stop & go traffic. 30 mpg :-)
FEMA is a VERY different if your gov is the President's brother. NEVER heard of such generosity from that collection of low lifes !
Best Hopes for a minimal hurricane season,
Alan