 | Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers | The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: June 15, 2007 |  |
And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!
Posted by Prof. Goose on June 15, 2007 - 1:53am
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_26/b4040074.htm?campaign...
By Eugene Linden
From Peak Oil To Dark Age?
Oil output has stalled, and it's not clear the capacity exists to raise production
With global oil production virtually stalled in recent years, controversial predictions that the world is fast approaching maximum petroleum output are looking a bit less controversial. At first blush, those concerned about global warming should be delighted. After all, what better way to prod the move toward carbon-free, climate-friendly alternative energy?
Eugene is a friend of TOD, he's placed a couple of ads here in the past. His site and other writings can be found at http://www.eugenelinden.com/
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
Kool aid from CERA
OIL PRODUCTION INCREASINGLY CONCENTRATED—AGAIN
The oil market pendulum is swinging back from diversification of supply to more concentrated sourcing. Just 15 countries are expected to account for up to 84 percent of the net growth in global oil production capacity over the next ten years. This is a group of countries that CERA, borrowing from the G8, calls the "O15"—the Oil 15. CERA’s O15 includes, in order of absolute growth in capacity, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iraq, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Iran, Kuwait, Algeria, Qatar, Libya, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates, Angola, and Azerbaijan.
Strong growth has already pushed the O15’s share of global production capacity from 51 percent in 2002 to nearly 62 percent in 2007. This shift will become more pronounced after 2010. By 2017 the O15 will represent nearly 66 percent of global production capacity. Implications of this trend are noted below.
*
O15 market perspectives. Recent years have witnessed a rise in explicit and implicit oil price expectations and objectives. Many countries have higher revenue goals because of growing population or development priorities, and all take note that the world economy has been experiencing strong growth with higher prices. Although an expectation for high oil prices—in the $50s and $60s per barrel, for example—does not automatically translate into such an outcome, these expectations do coincide with the shift toward the O15 in terms of growth.
*
Supply risks. Many of the O15 countries face domestic or regional political and security uncertainties. Periodic bouts of political change or insecurity in or around O15 countries create potential for global supply growth to fall short of expectations. Anxiety about the reliability and adequacy of supplies will remain a feature of the oil market.
*
Energy security initiatives. Energy security concerns in major oil importing markets are driven by a number of factors. The growing concentration of production capacity will be one of them. The drive to enhance energy security is a key motivator for increasing investment in oil substitutes, such as biofuels, and greater demand-side efficiency. The combined long-term impact of oil substitutes and improved efficiency could be offsets to this shift on the supply side.
All I can say is that Gomu supposedly had no effect yet I look at the price for oil and it has fairly consistently stayed above 65 a barrel where in the past this was the ceiling it now seems to be the floor price. So not only are the 015 in control but each major event from now on out will probably ratchet the floor price up a 2-5 dollars at a time with and long term drop highly unlikely. Its still a bit early but the concept is that from now on out anything bad happens and the floor price increases but we will not see long term decreases in price. Thus the peak oil treadmill seems to have started in earnest.
This picture may be clearer
Realist: Another quiet milestone- a new record high forecast for long term oil prices (from a "cornucopian" source)- "50s and 60s". It is possible that CERA is not so much agenda driven as simply mediocre at research and forecasting, as their focus is obviously on marketing and promotion (they are the GM or Ford of oil market research/forecasting).
I thought Mr. Yergin said oil was going to $38.
What happened?
The "10-Squared Strategic Investment Plan"
-By Tate Ulsaker
You already know about Peak Oil. You see evidence of the petrocollapse tsunami approaching. The visible storm clouds darken the sky of every system on earth, including the economic, political, social, ecological and even spiritual. You sense that this storm is not just another Great Depression and will include something bigger than the Black Plague and Dark Age combined. Even as the masses are lulled to sleep by their many info-tainment distractions in a paradigm of zombie-like consumerism, you are ready to be different, to risk ridicule and to prepare for the obviously imminent crash events, many of which are unfolding right now. You are assured that affecting change now, pre-crash is a far better strategy than reactionism in the post-crash era when your powers to affect change will be greatly diminished. If this paragraph makes total sense to you, then you are ready for the Ten Squared Strategic Plan.
Question - What does it mean: "10 Squared"?
Short Answer - A 2-phase way to enhance your wealth, social standing and spiritual purpose by 100 times in one generation during petrocollapse.
...
The longer answer is below...
http://arkbuilders.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18&Item...
Great thought-provoking article. Doesn't plumb the intricaticies thattwe get so involved in here on TOD of course, but this article should certainly make some people think.
One point that I thought it could have put more emphasis on is - depletion of existing oil wells, oil fields and oil producing countries is a well-established fact and can't sensibly be argued against. This is the reason why the world has to run fast on the treadmill to even stay still. I felt he didn't give much justification for complete laypeople as to why global oil production wasn't a 'steady-state' phenomenon. Which is kinda what people want to believe......
Very good article though!
Cuchulainn
Hello Eugene and fellow TODers,
Kudos to Eugene for getting this published in BizWeek! I left a posting in the BizWeek comments section asking him to next publish an article on Westexas's Exportland Model. The ramifications arising from this model should really get the BusinessWeek readership highly interested! Go WT!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
There are 2 types of "peakers":
Type #1: those who have a personal political advancement strategy
Type #2: those that are personally prepping
If you're happy about this and the the Indy article, you're primarily a Type #1.
If you're ambivalent or unhappy about these articles, you're primarily a Type #2.
To anybody truly prepping: YOU DON'T WANT THE POPULATION OR THE MARKETS TO RECOGNIZE THIS! We can all kiss our asses and any hopes of better positioning ourselves goodbye once either/both of those things happen.
There will be no "Cuba" style Powerdowns. Cheney or whoever comes next will blast us all back to the stone age before that happens:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2007/WhitneyPutin.html
Forget your neighborhood being the next Havana, it's going to be Baghdad or New Orleans in short order once the markets "get" this.
So you want to get to a place with lots of water, isolated from invading populations, and away from nuclear targets and fallout patterns as soon as reasonably possible.
These high profile articles are not a "good sign". They're symptoms that things are getting ever closer to completely unraveling. It's like when people on the beach finally spot a Tsunami on the horizon and say "wow, a Tsunami is on the way, maybe we should start running." At that point it's probably too late to start running unless you can haul ass like FloJo.
Hi Chimp:
More one for Matt Savinar I think, not directly related to PO, but you have to laugh (and it is a Friday):
Wheels coming off Globalisation?
Or: When poverty knocks ont’ door, love flies out the window…
Wal-Mart branded anti-US in China row
By Mark Kleinman in Hong Kong
Last Updated: 3:15am BST 15/06/2007
Wal-Mart was plunged into the heart of the row over the US's massive trade deficit with China yesterday as it faced accusations that an influx of cheap Chinese imports had rendered the retailer "un-American".
Wal-Mart said it still sourced from within the US as much as was commercially viable
The allegations from a US pressure group funded by one of the country's biggest trade unions strike at the heart of the debate over globalisation and come as US politicians step up pressure for a draconian series of trade sanctions against the Chinese government.
A television advertising campaign by WakeUpWalMart.com, an organisation funded by the United Food Commercial Workers' Union, cites a memo from Sam Walton, founder of the world's biggest retailer, in which he pledged to keep Wal-Mart American.
"No company has done more than Wal-Mart to strengthen China and weaken America," said Paul Blank, director of WakeUpWalMart.com. "The time has come for every American to demand that Wal-Mart stop making China stronger at the expense of American jobs and America's economy."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/15/cnwalm...
I believe these kinds of predictions are unnecessarily alarmist. During the Great Depression, we were able to turn away from individualism and toward cooperation. No doubt peak oil will be difficult (especially economically) but I believe we'll adapt better than some here expect. For example, there's an interesting article about the difference between men and women: in times of stress men fight and flight, where as women tend and befriend. Perhaps in a peak oil situation women will step up to the plate to lead the charge on tending and befriending. The world will increasingly need this.
Smokey,
As usual, it takes 5 seconds before somebody posts a deeply flawed reference to the GD.
The bad news is that during the Great Depression, which was global, Hitler took over Europe and killed tens of millions people.
The good news is Roosevelt took over here, went to war with Japan and Genermany, and then his successor initiated a regional nuclear holocaust in Asia.
Back then we had 2 nuclear bombs. Today we have 20,000. And unlike back then, the energy wealth pie is now decreasing.
There is now a name for people moving to the valley where I live. They're actually being called "peak-oil refugees."
At least that's what the real estate people call them.
So an exodus appears to be starting ...
Green/Refugees:
Down a bit south of Raleigh, NC..just past the city limits there are new plats that are going to be developed and the houses will be termed "GREEN".
They will be VERY expensive. This is the new mantra and scheme for the developers I suppose..ones who are very likely reading TOD and plotting a new way to make money off PO and CC.
Expensive is like maybe close to a million whereas current prices in the neighborhood are ranging from $250,000 to $500,00.
This is where my son just brought and where I have visited several times. The land in question was previously NOT going to be developed and it lent a huge amount of privacy in a very nice, not too overly developed area but now the money hounds are at it tooth and nail.
I bet it will be gated as well. There goes the neighborhood.
Airdale
PS. Might be interesting to google ,development and green.
Bet this will go over big time and I note that there is NO housing bubble bursting in this area of NC. There was in 85 when I moved away and had to let the relocation firm take over my North Raleigh(Wake County) residence. There are some areas of this location that are in a declining market but only slightly so based on demographics(meaning poor white trash or ethnically undesirable to put it nicely).
Chimp, your arguments are meaningless. Because conditions are different today than they were in 1930, total collapse is the only possible outcome? Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else can predict how this will all shake out.
The seeds of positive change may have already been planted... from Empire to Earth Community, as the book says. With the three big threats of peak oil, climate change, and economic meltdown we may be able to find a better way, we can do so much better. Not that there won't be hardship and strife along the way.
I find the obsession with insisting that there is "no option but total collapse" a bit ridiculous. There are many possible outcomes.
Yes things are different, they potentially are much worse. Declining energy supplies on the horizon. Religious fundamentalists - Moslem and Christian. An empire that is overstretched with a declining manufacturing and energy base Other countries waiting in the wings to become empires. The whole history of humans is written in blood and conflict and I see no reason presently this will change. We at the Oildrum may be educated (reference to the poll) and civilized, but given a large portion of the world’s populace that believes in a man up in the sky that watches over us I don’t put much faith in them ever being reached by reasonable arguments. Yes there are a number of potential outcomes, but I’ll put my money what I feel is the most likely one given human history. A very short history at that, only a few thousand years of civilization. Not a long track record to go on. I can’t prove it, it’s a hunch, a word that is held with contempt on this site, but I literally bet the farm on it.
I agree... the only difference is that things are much worse.
We are more extended on paper meaningless dollars. In 1929 at least the dollars were tied to gold.
And population numbers? Ha.
And what about ability to work the land? Double - ha.
And how about social fabric? Can we say "tinder box"? Ready to explode, all of it.
It feels better to think "nobody knows" but we all know that this will end up far, far, far worse than any 1929 or any black plague or any dark age. We are way over the line here.
Oh God you drank the Korten Kool-Aid. This is a guy who - I kid you not - described the Baby Boomers as the generation of "wise elders."
Seeds of positive change? LMAO! Dude, we're spending $1.2 trillion (on the books) and lord knows how much off the books in military spending. Another 1.8 trillion or so on oil. Who knows how much on advertising. I could go on. . . In contrast there are at best a few billion being spent on anything positive. Trillions for catastrophe, billions for positive change and the gap is only worsening with each passing year. Where does this lead us?
Conditions are far worse than in 1930. The energy pie was getting bigger back then. It is now shrinking. And it is shrinking in the context of a world spending at least $1.2 trillion a year developing and deploying highly advanced killing technologies.
History and the bible can be twisted to support any belief system. Never mind that through the depression and up until Pearl Harbor was bombed the peace movement was one of the most powerful political movements in the country. Have you ever talked to those who survived due to the CCC or WPA? I've heard lots of their stories, they are proud of the country, what they did and how they survived, and never went for anarchy. My parents, inlaws and all their friends lived through the great depression and wouldn't recognize what you are talking about. The suffering, yes, but the attitudes and outlooks, no.
During the depression the 4th world wasn't living 3 feet off your door step.
Indeed, Matt. The last thing I want is the sheeple waking up before I own a petrocollapse ready farmlet. Or for that matter bidding up the price of silver before I have finished gathering my hoard.
Yep, I don't need to explain to you how it is.
Case in point: prices are dropping on some farmlet-potential spots I looked at last week. If people understood what is going on, that trend would reverse and whatever little hope I have of getting one of my own would be dashed.
Hi Chimp--
I have to respectfully disagree. I am definitely a 'Type 2" personal preparer, but I welcome anything that will motivate others to learn about peak and prepare. We won't get through this by by being survivalists; we will need community, however small and local. So to the extent the message delivery can be expanded and get more people in each community thinking correctly, the better off even we Type 2's will be. Articles like this help.
Vtfarmer,
I agree with you 100%.
Matt has committed the fallacy of the false dilemma, as well as the fallacy of questionable premises:
1. One can have a political agenda as well as making personal preparations.
2. Even more important, the future is not a zero-sum game; it is not like poker, where you want to guard information, because information is power. Savinar's premise is that the more people who are "in the know" the harder it will be for individuals to make preparations is flat out false if you see (as you do) the fundamental question of survival as how to create viable communities.
Heck, from the dense Cornucopians on this web site, you can see that the entire MSM could be shouting end of the world, and the sheep would look up and say "oh, my, but that, of course, is not possible.", then go back to grazing. You might get a made for TV movie. But then they will go back to being more interested in Paris Hilton.
Don, any community that has a chance to survive in a post peak situation will probably not have it’s chances increased with a knowledge of peak oil. In fact, a strong argument could be made that articles in the media will decrease their chances as people flock to these places in an effort to survive. I’ve seen lots of nice small towns in Northern Illinois destroyed by yuppie types flocking to them to experience the small town lifestyle and in the process destroy these places. These same people will be the ones swamping small rural communities looking for a place to survive, bringing nothing other than their bank accounts and wasteful lifestyles - which in a crash will be meaningless compared to survival skills. If you live in very large urban areas such as Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, etc., kiss your ass goodbye because no amount of preparation and knowledge is going to make these places survivable. The logistics are too insurmountable. There is just too much antiquated infrastructure and structure to replace.
Clearly, to build a community likely to survive Peak Oil we need at least some people (those in the community) to be aware of peak oil. I do not see how awareness by many affects the chances of survival of those who take extensive preparations to build community. For example. suppose in the late sixties there was even more awareness of the danger of urban riots than was actually the case. Would this increased awareness have hurt the chances of ANYBODY to survive urban riots. I doubt it. Rather, I think increased awareness allows and encourages increased preparation on many levels.
Three cheers for spreading the word!
No you don't. I just visisted a families off-grid farm. They're totally off the grid, have lots of animals, etc. They did it even though they had never heard of PO.
The Mormons are probably the only community even remotely prepped. And PO awareness in their community is as low if not lower than it is anywhere else.
The rest of your post is deeply flawed in its thinking. The last global oil war ended with most of the civilized world in ruins, one continent having experienced a nuclear holocaust. If you examine the arc of current events, the current global oil war is heading in a similar direction. We're not talking about something as relatively benign as urban riots here.
We'll see urban riots long before we see revolution or collapse. Check any history book.
The future will be like the past, but with variations.
BTW, how long did it take the Roman Empire to collapse?
And when did the big Roman riots take place?
It took Rome 400 years to collapse. But as we are way more leveraged then they ever were I suspect it will take us about 50-to-100.
That's the good news. The bad news is the American Empire collapse began in 1971 when our oil production peaked. So were 1/3-to-2/3 of the way into it, the part when things start to get real nasty.
Matt,
My own prophecy for when THSHTF is the year 2020.
What is yours?
If anybody is interested, I'll explain how I came up with 2020, which is only thirteen years from now.
Personally, I began preparing in 1956, with a Global C-2 pilot's survival kit, a Mossberg .22 rifle, and a Zundapp motorcycle. But for the last decades I've focused mainly on my extended family and other sources of community.
Don,
The shit is hitting the fan one city/region/economy sector at a time. I think it will continue to do this. The thing is we are a self-selected group here. If you have the free time and energy to post here you are, by default, not in an area where TSHTF. (Some rare exceptions, of course.)
Examples:
Compare Baghdad, Detroit, and New Orleans as they were in 1957 at the height of the industrial age to as they are in 2007 as the industrial age is just in the intial throws of collapse.
Los Angeles, Mexico City, Tehran seem to be good candidates for where TSHTF next.
I agree with you 100% about the importance of location.
The cities will burn when the looters shoot the fire fighters.
Martial law will help for a while.
My guestimate of 2020 is about nationwide realization that THSHTF. For example, Dow Jones Industrial average below 1,000, interest rates above 30%, reneging on Medicare and Social Security through prolonged double digit inflation, housing starts below 100,000, more people killed in riots than by auto accidents (a milestone to look for), rampant black markets, increasing gang or warlord rule in urban areas, enslavement of illegal alients to mine shale with pick and shovel, etc., etc. But none of this is Collapse.
I think TEOTWAWKI will come gradually and somewhat later than the year 2020, if it comes at all.
There is a small but finite possibility that new technology can pull our chestnuts out of the fire for a few more decades, especially if we forget about global warming and burn that coal as fast as we can mine and transport it.
The possibility that our political leaders at the national level will do anything constructive to deal with Peak Oil and greenhouse gases is slim to none--unless, say there is a military coup and one of my daughters takes over as emperor.
How is your polygamous cult coming along? Have you found the Holy Books yet?
I'm kinda partial to December 21, 2012 since that is when the Mayan calendar ends.
I concur - precession to Galatic Center 2012.
From the NewScientist:
"Mammalian species are known to last an average of 2.5 million years before being snuffed out, but nobody had been able to figure out why. The reason, it turns out, may be linked to regular wobbles in Earth's orbit.
Jan van Dam from Utrecht University in the Netherlands and colleagues reached this conclusion after studying the fossil record of rodents from central Spain over a 22-million-year span. This showed a link between rodent extinction events and the climate record."
BTW: despite what is prophesized to transpire 12/12/12, the Mayan calendar doesn't really end per se for time and life were considered to be forever cyclical.
Shall we start a betting pool?
I think 2012 is too early for TSTHTF, because by then we will still probably be able to import maybe 80% or 90% of the oil we do now. A drop of ten or twenty percent in oil imports (together with slow decline from domestic fields) is not, IMHO, enough to put the fecal matter into the turbines.
True, but an attack on Iran or Siberia to try to get control of energy supplies might get us to TSTHTF pretty damn fast.
I worry about our leaders ...
A drop of 10% in our oil imports almost certainly means there will be some empty shelves at your local supermarket. Almost certainly there would be lines at gas stations. Almost certainly the segments of our economy that are sensitive to transportation costs and fuel availability and don't receive public subsidies would be affected. That's trucking, for one. When log trucks don't roll, mills shut down. When steel trucks don't roll, factories shut down, and major construction schedules are thrown off. That would be known as unemployment, something this country hasn't had a serious dose of since the '30's. Combine the demoralizing effects of empty shelves and parking lots with boarded storefronts and unemployment, and I think you would have to concede that, indeed, TSHHTF. I don't think we could absorb a 10% fall in imports without it triggering those effects, I assume you think we're not that vulnerable. I would propose that an economic contraction of that magnitude on a population as 'unprepared' as we are will profoundly unsettling and the clinical term 'depression' will be applicable not only at the macro level, but at the individual level as well, and most people will manifest not sociopathic symptoms but symptoms of depression- lassitude, disattachment, denial, avoidance. History is full of examples of famines that were not attended by violent uprising and civil disorder. I guess my vision of the future is even darker than yours, in a way, I just think that most Americans are so weak and stupid that they won't even lift a finger to try to save themselves until the last twinkie is gone. So you guys are safe in your rural redoubts, all the potential hoodlums will be holed up trying to sell their looted bling on ebay.
My calendar appears to end on December 31. 2007?
I don't think you and Don are as far apart as you think, Matt. LA could down the tubes next year but much of the country might still hold together while the feds try to restore order (or watch the city simply eventually burn).
My preparations are aimed at roughly similar levels to you and Don. In some ways I'm pretty far along and in others not nearly as far as I want but I think I am a bit more optimistic than either of you.
I still believe that the technical problems around peak oil can be solved by a combination of factors such as Alan Drake's light rail, an expansion of nuclear power, and rearranging our way of life so that we can retain a viable technological civilization. M. King Hubbert thought so too but he also warned that if we do not get off the "folklore" monetary system which directly conflicts with real science then there is no hope at all.
My pessimism comes from the realization that this is not a technological problem as much as it is a religious problem. Economics and the myth of infinite growth are the religion of modern civilization. To face that myth and replace it with something, anything, grounded in real science is something that we will almost certainly refuse to do.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I suspect that the coming collapse will have little in common with the collapse of the Roman Empire. No previous civilization has become become so utterly dependent on fossil energy. The nearest parallel might be some the the early Mesopotomian empires which destroyed themselves by destroying their supporting ecology.
BTW. The collapse of the Western Empire really started in 378 after the battle of Adrionoble in 378 AD and ended when the last Roman Emperor of the West (Romulus Augustus) was casually deposed in 476. The title of Emperor was so insignificant by then that we wasn't even killed.
The Eastern Empire survived for another 1000 years.
Bruce: Where is the evidence re a city like NYC? The place was a lot weaker when oil was cheaper (say 1971) than it is in 2007. It has really boomed while world oil supply growth has stagnated. A high % of the population does not own a car and could care less about gasoline prices.
"Couldn't care less", not "could care less".
And I'm sure they eat in NYC, in which case, they'll be wondering why food is shooting up at an alarming rate. Not as pricey as it was decades ago, but certainly able to get there if ethanol and greater population numbers are anything to go by.
Additionally, I recall oil affects more than just how much you pay for driving.
My local view on the post peak oil era is one of hasty but gradual change with an increase in urbanization, electrified transportation with both cars and mass transportation, more electrified industry and sustainable biological and nuclear technology.
I see Sweden as my local community but also our neighbours are well and often better run. Finland has better energy policy and schools, Norway oil and gas and doing well with investing that wealth and Denmark has recently repayed all foreign debt. Also EU has some good trends but we do for instance need better AC technology for southern europe if global warming accelerates.
I see peak oil awareness as a good thing and with that I mean an awareness that energy and especially wehicle fuel will be increasingly expensive. Its not the end of the world, its only change. And if people are aware of the change they can make apropriate investments. Here I have the selfish goal of making sure that Sweden becommes a realy good community to invest in.
We gotta get rid of red tape, calm down NIMBY and encourage facility builders to be realy nice neighbours, prepair for more non CO2 energy production, get the economy rolling to make it possible for people to invest, encourage long term thinking, get old conflicting interests to agree on new goals, make our towns nicer, and so on.
I actually think I will be living in a nicer country in 10-20 years. I can see some of the processes above picking up speed and actually personally encourage some of them, quite a wierd feeling, its probably addictive. ;-)
Yesterday I watched Fredrik Reinfeldt our prime minister and leader of our largest party in the government coalition have a press conference for our new party internal work for making a realy good enviromental policy. The ground work document is mostly based on Global Warming but it will be a complete policy and it will be very intresting to see what new ideas are found during the three year process of gathering ideas, wetting them againd all kinds of special interests and making a bid for voters approval in the 2010 election.
http://www.moderat.se/material/pdffiler/moderat_17127.pdf
I agree as well. This is the problem I have with some "hardcore peak oil doomers," In their view, there is no other option or possibility other than the total collapse of society. This is why I actually appreciate theoildrum, as it's more balanced than some other peak oil sites.
That's why I used the qualifier "primarily." I figured people would understand that meant you could be a mix of the two.
And the future is a zero-sum game. The pie is now shrinking.
You're the one making a logical fallacy. Whatever preps your COMMUNITY wants to make are going to be impossible or at the very least extremely difficult to make once the markets "get" this.
If the pie is shrinking, then the future is a negative sum game.
Everyone gravitates towards thinking in the terms one is comfortable with by profession/training/environment.
IMO those that do not consider Matt's scenario as a real possibility are engaging in wishful thinking to some degree.
Many people with very valuable skills lack the training to comprehend what it would take to defend even some small positions if things get out of control.
As far as the MSM, over the last few weeks the news blackout is taking on monumental proportions from what one reads even in the highest level non US media.
On the ideals of 'community' and possible outcomes:
After the shitstorm has started and in full bloom a few things will become extremely important.
First will be power. Individual power. The power to call the shot,rule, be the head man.etc.. This means lots of playoffs between wannabes and the strong. This is of course just natural selection of the alpha male.
Second will be food. Be prepared to have it taken by force if you can't protect it.
Third is breedable and cuddly females. You have one and someone else wants her,then force comes into play.
Remember NO law enforcement. Its all about brute power and the suprise factor.
So you are ok..you got a dwelling , food and a good mate. A member of your community wants some of what you have. You get an axe in the head in the middle of the night or when your back is turned.
Can you tell me this? Just who can you trust? Today I find zero , yes zero, trustworthy people. I live in the country amid friends and kin yet I wouldn't turn my back easily on most of them.
So how do you trust a total stranger,or someone who just walks in with a big smile and says "trust me,I want to help"?
I really don't see for most folks how it can work out otherwise. Today there is ripoffs everywhere and people feed on your blood. When TSHTF suddenly we will all become trusting souls happy for each other with shiny, happy faces and willing to share?
I don't think so.
Scene: Your sitting on your porch. You see a ragtag band approaching up your lane. One is carrying a long sticklike object. In a few minutes he will be in rifle range. Do you sit there? Start to boil some tea? Let them surround you whilst minding the tea? Welcome them up and let them case you out? Sic the dogs on them? Tell your daughters to go hide? What?
Just what the hell do you do? You have to think these things out. Else you end up possibly in the ditch out back with a cut throat.
You haven't read 'The Road' then have you?
You have no real plans do you? The 'message'? There is no 'message'. There is power. There is strength. There is survival. There is planning and thinking ahead. There is survival of the fittest.
The weak won't even get started.
Hope I am wrong but I won't bet my life on it.
I'm betting your answer will be thusly: "Well if its that bad then I will not want to live that kind of life."..defeatist then,ok your choice.
Airdale
Funny that the hard questions like this one that I sometimes ask,never do get an answering reply. Is this the communal spirit at work then?
Or is it that many rather not go there?
I suppose its not politically correct to pose such.
Its just that I have a huge disconnect with this 'new found' community spirit thing. Last time I saw it and fleetingly at that was in Woodstock, NY right after the hootenanny/festival up towards Bearsville. That was where I was living and before that I lived in Venice, Ca...right at the same time as Manson did his fork thing at Tate/LaBianca and Squeaky and the girls were still hanging out at the Spawn Ranch and doing tv chats about what 'their community' was all about ,what with dead bodies they buried in the sand and so forth. Also some girls wanted to make Venice beach optional clothing so I would go watch them strip nekid in front of the TV cameras. That was real community spirit. However up 101 was a nude beach.Fort Zuma beach. Spent some real real good community spirit times there. The smoke of good pot drifting on the wind, naked wannabe movie starlets, a big air sea rescue of some naked dudes who got too far beyond the break water and were stoned as well clinging to rocks in the surf with their dingys hanging out. A naked passed out amazon black female right in the incoming pathway stoned out of her head and sleeping there for 3 hours straight. She got a real bad sun burn and woke up all fuzzy headed and puked some.
So yes I did see some community spirit. I walked down the main street of Woodstock one day and saw a hippy mother breast feeding her baby right on the curb downtown. That was 'community' and so I haven't seen real community since.Letting it all 'hang out' as we used to say in the far back dark ages.
But you know what? I don't see that type of stuff anymore. Its all different now. Its murder on the highways and if you put your thumb out to hitch you end up as fodder in some serial killers refrigerator or he's shooting acid in a hole drilled in your skull.
Oh yes swapping lawnmower tales across the privacy fence in the burbs. Chatting up the nubile one next door. Real stuff. They don't know but whose next door and sometimes not. Two houses down might be cannibals and no one would know. An axe murderer over the other way.
So I await this big coming together then.
I just don't see it. Not after so many trips on the interstates. Not after listening to elected representatives who only know you before the votes are taken and then your basically offal to them afterwards. After the ripoffs at the stores and merchants. After all the scuz I used to watch on TV. I just don't see it.
Churches I have attended are supposed to be communal and practice fellowship. Yet everyone here hates the Christian community and religion. So with all this hate and distrust just where is this sudden 'community spirit' going to come from?
So..when TSHTF(translated shitstorm)comes and one picks up and trudges to the outback, where all the food is, and finds a group of communal folks,,then he walks up and says "Hi,I am here to help you and you can trust me for my heart is pure"..and they are going to? Give me a brake.Or a break.
I don't see this coming off. Either you bring your own cadre out with you or your toast and maybe they will be toast too if you get pushy. Its just that way ,,,,IN MY OPINION.
No one is just going to share what they have. Not when its in short supply. No one is going to take you in , unless your a Paris Hilton(whatever the hell that is). I mean a breedable , cute female who can cook and so forth. Maybe..you got a slight chance then. Maybe. But how many can cook? They don't even know how to turn a stove on.
But now,hey you could just hole up in the city or burbs.There is no woods there, no bambis, no cute talking chipmunks and no where to run and no where to hide. No water and lots of dead peeple. Yuk. JIT inventory took care of all of that long long ago.
You got just two days worth at most of rations. You got ice cream that won't melt. You got your Little Debbie cakes and cookies. Real he-man stuff. Most of this is still junk food. It will kill you.
Airdale-a rant on a rant..not verifiable and no proofs.
Its ugly , its real, its not going to get a lot better when the rotor touches to kaka.
PS. My bumper sticker still reads:"Plants and animals disappear to make room for your fat azz" I wear it proudly. I do my part.
PPS. This has been a good rant. I feel much better now. Just canned 6 qts of Old South Lime Cucumber Slices. In the pantry and you can't have any. Picked up a Presto #7 16 qt canner at a yard sale on my way to Little Sturgis the other day for $5..the woman in the yard said "we need rain". I rode on with the canner on the pillion behind me. It was dry and I had to drink 3 Big Gulp bottles of store brought Sweet Tea to make the run. It was that dry. 400 miles and it was dry. I could hear the corn crying out for water as I passed the fields. I rode on...on down the two laner to Sturgis. Then I had to make the return run..no brewskis for I think Union County is dry. No beer til Leeder Bottoms on down the line. I rode on. The bike was making that 'packed' torqy sound that Prisig described so well in ZMM. The Vance and Hines straight shots telling it all as I drifted another nice curve and down a hill. I rode on.
PPS. What ever happened to the saga writer around here who used to pen all this sorta stuff. Personal things like.Stories about rolling blackouts and such. About a girl he remembered and how he done her wrong. Where did he go then?
PPPS. Don't be shy..if your shy here then how will you work it then? The spirit thing that is. If its bad in the green then how will it be in the dry? (Solomon?) And even the grasshopper shall be a burden...good words there. I love to read the bible. I think in the end all thats left will surely be down on their knees pleading with the skygod to please please send us some rain(the future I speak of).
Its more and worse than just a blacked out sports game on TV,,its your lifes blood. But who knows, certainly not I but I feel it in my bones. Something bad,something real bad this way comes.
ZMM- Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance...Not much about zen and not real good for maintenance...but good on philosophy. He talked about the 'machine age' and Budda in the machine. He found his ghost finally up in Colorado in the mountains. His son went with him. His son died on the street corner of Haight and Ashbury from a knife to the body by gangbangers a few years later. A readable book I highly recommend.
Airdale,
I like your posts, so I will answer.
When I notice the band of brigands approaching I'll bring out my extended family, each of them armed appropriately. I favor the British Lee Enfield #4 because of its simplicity, reliability, low cost, and ability to outshoot the modern crap that the U.S. army uses now. I was trained on Garands, and they are good too, but they are expensive.
I believe in overwhelming firepower plus well-thought-out fortifications. Prowlers will pick on easy targets before they go after hardened ones, so you don't necessarily have to have a batallion to defend your community. I think the experience of the Israeli kibbutz is highly relevant here, as is the training and tactics found in the Swiss cantons.
In my stock of trading goods are quantities of several different calibers of ammunition. Keep it cool and dry and it will last for decades.
One thing not to forget to stockpile in condoms. Latex was so short in supply during the Second World War that civilians were reusing condoms. Ugh. But I guess you are too young to remember that.
Don,
Had a Lee Enfield that I inherited from my father, who with 5 of his brothers were all in service in WWII. I never fired it sad to say but it looked rugged. Instead I selected the Ruger Mine-30 in AK-47 rounds. I later auctioned it off.
I do my own reloading however so that tells you where I am at.
The kibbutz. Yes I can agree with that. But Israel is a lot of open ground isn't it? Good fields of fire. Condoms...won't be needing those.
I used to favor the Winchester .243 in Sako. Sold it off to a friend as well. My Browning BPS Hunter..gone as well.
What I have left is worthwhile and what I intend to get is being played out right now.
But you didn't answer about the 'spirit of community', so I take it your extended family is it and thats well.
Good luck to you,
Airdale
PS. You might want to check out the Springfield Armory M1A in National Match. Far better reach than AR-15 clones or Armalite. Armalite being pretty decent with a flat top and picatinny rails. 24 inch floating barrel and two stage trigger in .223. Here is a good URL:
http://www.snipercountry.com/Articles/AR15_part1.asp
I think the .223 caliber is all right for women and eleven year old children to shoot, but I want a serious caliber for serious work.
My number one favorite is the Swedish Mauser 6.5 x 57 m.m. in those lovely Swedish guns made from 1896 to sometime around the end of World War II, I think.
Bolt action weapons are, IMO, first choice because of simplicity, reliability, durability, and accuracy.
Assault rifles are overrated because you have to have a trememdous amount of training to become effective with one, and most people just burn ammo aimlessly with them.
The U.S. Springfield 1903 is excellent, but it is slightly less durable than the Lee Enfield #4. German Mausers are good too, except when the quality fell off late in the Second World War.
The key of course is training.
I have lots of children and grandchildren and in laws, but I'm looking to relocate with more extensive community in mind.
I hear you on the "community spirit" thing.
I saw how it might go here @ the y2k event that didn't happen.In this neighborhood its a bit different.All older, retired folks who have seen hard times,and did the prep thing.This was good,as I knew my neighbors wouldn't be my first problem.Here on the edge of one of the more"survivable" cities,most of the older ones remember putting food by,and were raised by those who knew how close death can be
ZMM was a part of a summer I spent liveing @ Portland State,along with playing bluegrass guitar @ the Blitz Bluegrass Festival,and comeing to the bittersweet decision that I wanted more in life than playing guitar for money,longhair,beer,pretty girls.I had known a lot of pro musicians,but the merry crew I ran with that summer showed me what my life would be....
a footnote. saw the same group...some different members,25 years later...older women,long hair{getting gray},more beer,bad teeth,still hustling money from club owners...no growth,a dead end.
Your analisis is spot on for many.A brick wall at high speed.I stopped thinking that I had any ideas what could change whats comeing when the result of a carefully documented,reseached presentation to the oregon legislature was...... zilch.Nada.Dont talk to us.Your nuts.{These were the polite ones}
Things are changeing,slowly,too slowly for the magnitude of the comeing "phase-change"in energy usage.My latino wife and I work our selfs hard to build a liferaft of sorts.It will hold family,and those who we know will appear,who make up our tribe.Fruit trees,grapes,Kiwi vine,blueberries,raspberrys,marion berries,get it in the ground,get it growing,get the fences up,cut mountains of firewood,build greenhouses,glass,not plastic,forget plastic anything...get extra shovels,hoes,rakes...
Todays chore was putting a new side shed on the barn,more storage for household goods that may be in short supply...
I am starting to think that this administration intends to hit Iran,and use the resulting chaos to install a police state.How succesful they will be is anyones guess.I think things will start to get weird about that time....
Not only do I not want to see articles in the main media about peak oil, but I’ve quit saying anything about peak oil to anyone. Although I have concluded that trying to convince anyone peak oil is going to happen in the near future is futile - everyone looks at me as if I’m nuts - it is more important to prevent these same idiots from showing up at my door to benefit from my preparations and foresight when the shit hit’s the fan and very large urban areas become bedlam.
Bruce,
No disrespect intended, just want to give a different perspective.
I completely get what you say about people thinking you're nuts. PO preparations (the garden, near-zero consumer crap purchasing, ruthless debt shedding, designing the solar water heater, etc.) puts you on another planet as far as most people are concerned. You know the 'you seem to have a third eye in your forehead' look. And the wife loses huge social capital. That hurts.
But Community is going to be a critical success factor, IMVHO. No man is an island and all that.
An amusing yet comforting thought that helps keep me sane is that I'm the part of the larger organism that is pre-adapting. And when the environment requires these skills, the local community will have a source of post-peak DNA. By talking up PO as much as possible, I increase the chances that people will seek me out when PO replaces GW in the public's mind. Another common term for this is early adopters. But I don't like that term because it reinforces the notion of individuality. Maybe I am completely nuts.
I guess my point is that when the long, slow grind down the back slope begins, I actually hope that people seek me out for ideas, knowledge, and assistance. I actually do expect that people will start to do the right things (when, and not until, there is no other choice).
I absolutely love the gardening business that was in one of the recent posts. They build the site in your backyard, tend it, do the composting, and give the produce to the family. I sent them an email to see where they get their cut, but haven't heard back yet. Is it for cash? Or a cut of the produce? This is a brilliant model for sustainability. In my subdivision alone there is acres of potential garden space. Solves so many issues in one stroke. And here in NW Florida, we can grow darn near 12 months out of the year. Involve the kids in picking weeds or debugging. Mrs. X next door knows how to can and preserve (and cook a 'mess' of okra).
Build community. Be prepared to be a leader. Look like a complete wacko until then!!
Yeah, I must be nuts.
Best,
Ed
I'm relatively new to Peak Oil (only started reading about it a couple of months ago) and have been a member of TOD for a few weeks. What I would like to know is what are some good resources (books, sites) that would give me some concrete ideas about preparing for it. I've seen lots of books about Peak Oil and a lot of websites but haven't really found something that would apply to me specifically. I live in suburban NJ outside NYC within easy (5 minutes) walking distance of both a train line and supermarket. I have a small backyard where I could grow a garden although most of of it fairly shaded with large trees. I have begun to dig myself out of my debt and expect to be clear in a few months (minus the mortgage). Unfortunately I do drive 30 miles to work so perhaps I could find something closer if it could pay the bills.
Many of the people here seem to have their own farmlet or are intensive farmers. I have to admit that I'm probably not the type to sell all and move to some remote area of the country or the world for that matter. I simply wouldn't know where to begin on such a project and how does on survive in the meantime.
If anyone out there is in the same situation as me and who has been preparing for awhile I would be interested in corresponding and getting ideas.
Thanks in advance to anyone who chimes in.
Swanmtn63,
There are lots of book lists you can find by doing a search. Here are just a few that you might find interesting.
Country Wisdom & Know-How, Storey Books, ISBN 1-57912-368-6
How To Get Out of the Rat Race and Live on $10 a Month, Herter and Herter, 1971, Pre-ISBN
Farm Journal's Freezing and Canning Cookbook (revised edition), Ed. by Nell B. Nichols and Kathryn Larson, ISBN 0-385-13444-4
Down-To-Earth Vegetable Gardening Know-How, Dick Raymond, ISBN 0-88266-079-9
Making the Best of Basics James Stevens, ISBN 1-882723-25-2
The Encyclopedia of Country Living, Carla Emery, ISBN 1-57061-377-X
I would also throw in the Whole Earth catalog series and Foxfire books.
There are a million more. Note that I did not include John Jevon's book. It isn't a realistic approach to survival gardening. In fact, last year they couldn't get more than one meal's worth of food a day out of his garden because they didn't have enough compost.
Todd
Edit to get rid of ongoing italics.
Thanks Todd. I;ll take a look at he titles you suggest. I'm looking for a group in my area that I can discuss such things with. I thought I had found such a group but it doesn't appear to be very active. Looks like there was a lot of interest in Peak Oil back in 2005 and now some of these groups (both physical and cyber u such as Yahoo groups) seem to not be as active. What is your experience with such groups or do you even concern yourself with trying to discuss Peak Oil with others.
Hi Swan,
The reality is that most groups don't hold together very long. I assume you have read of Jason Bradford's group WELL in Willits, CA. I live in the "town" north of Willits and a similar group formed here. The group here is essentially dead. There are a number of reasons why: First, it takes a lot of energy by someone to simply keep things going such as get togethers on a regular basis.
Second, people have different views of the future. In the case of the group here, I stopped going to their meetings because they were into warm-fuzzy stuff. I'm into survival, really hard nosed survival. ("Hey, let's talk about weapons and tactics not a community kitchen."
Third, people talk the talk but don't walk the walk. In other words, people talk about relocalization, for example. But, they don't have any skills to produce anything.
What I have is a old buddy here who sees the same future as I do. We talk on the phone a few mornings a week and we pass information back and forth. We also give each other seeds or plant starts that look promising.
Got to quit. A load of water is arriving. I'll post more later.
Todd
Ok, I'm back. Our well pump went out a few weeks ago and the drilling contractor won't have his truck fixed to pull the pump until early July so I'm trucking in water - 3,000 gallons at a whack.
Anyway, I think in many respects you are better off finding a buddy like me rather than looking for a local group. Look at the variety of opinions posted on TOD. Matt and I would get along but I wouldn't want to be involved with many others here. To me, groups are also too unfocused.
One site, with an associated forum, that you might enjoy is http://www.survivalblog.com It's run by a guy named James Rawles. It covers the gamit of stuff related to survival from food to guns. Look at their archives. If you like survival fiction, Rawles has a book Patriots - Surviving the Coming Collapse. Although it is fiction, it has a lot of good survival information.
Hope this helps.
Todd
Hi Swan,
I found a link I couldn't find earlier. I have a series of 3" binders where I put useful information. I didn't have time earlier but I'm done irrigating. Here's a list of books that prints out at nine pages. It includes many that I have but didn't mention above for lack of time:
http://www.larkfarm.com/homestead_books.htm
The books are all rated and I agree with the ratings.
Todd
ELP
Economize, Localize, Produce
This is courtesy of westexas. Lately, I've been thinking of it as HELP, with the H as Humanize.
There is no single best, highly detailed answer. Everyone's circumstances are different. But ELP is the best guidepost. Jeff is much more eloquent, but the gist goes like this:
Economize: get out of debt. Now. reduce your spending. imagine you are receiving 50% of your current income. assuming you have drunk and believe the PO kool-aid (which I did the instant I read the Hirsch report) ditch the stupid spending that you will look back on later and KICK yourself for.
Localize: reduce your non-human powered transportation needs to as close to zero as possible. work from home. get a new job closer to home. find local entertainment, food sources, friends, etc.
Produce: what physical item or service do you produce that other people would be willing to trade you items of intrinsic value for. Good: water, food, clothing, energy. Bad: tanning booth operator, travel agent, Disney character. I'm working on food and solar energy. I've done a fair bit of piping stuff and there's the water utility down the road, close enough to bike to. People won't stop using water, so I'll be kicking some tires there.
Humanize (my spin). Establish social capital. Create a community network (local, economic producers of valuable goods and services preferably) that will bind together during stress. It does not matter if they believe in depletion; they will get it eventually. And it keeps you from believing the worst-case scenarios.
One last (smirk) lesson from experience. You will no longer fit into the established social fabric. Accept it. Get over it. The malls, SUV's, American Idols, and Paris Hiltons appear more and more grotesque, and you my friend will be the weird one.
I may be wrong, but it seems we're headed to a world where fast and far is defined by bicycle scales, and energy consumption is at solar input levels: up at dawn, down at dusk, tend the veggies, tweak the water heater, and can over your solar oven. We certainly won't go from here to there in one great big leap. And yes there are other pesky details that I'm glossing over. Catabolic collapse is a slow, grinding thing (I hope!). Most SUV's will have to be pried from people's cold, dead fingers. But the point is if you can be comfortable at that level psychologically then you are WAY ahead of the game. Use excess cash to pay debt to zero. Hell, being in good shape with zero debt eating fresh veggies and playing Risk with the kids is hardly a bad thing!
Finally, lately I've been challenging myself to maximize the Improvement : Energy Use ratio. i.e., is my use of energy directed towards sustained practices or towards frivolous increases in entropy.
I live in Orange County, New York and am working on a 800-acre organic farm that is just getting underway. We are looking for free labor and in return can supply lots of vegetable for canning, drying and cold storage. Leave your email and I will get in touch if you're interested.
Lisa
Hey Sandiego - shoot me a note at bk "at" bkhere.com
Get to know who your neighbors are or who you want them to be. Are they someone you are willing to die for? Will they be sacrificed for you? Build a perimeter of warnings, whether economically, agriculturally, or tactically. Build your skill set and your tool and book collection. Learn when to retreat and when to hide.
That said, I haven't done a damn thing except drop out of the ratrace as much as I can because I think it's hopeless due to the coming climate flip/trucking company collapses/wars/government camps/secret teams/poisoned food/etc. and if it's not completely hopeless, I have enough skills to sell my technical services and enough psychopathic tendencies to use them. If it moves, shoot. If it shoots, move.
"I'll kill a man in a fair fight; or if I think he's gonna start a fair fight; or for money; or if there's a woman. But EATIN' people? When does THAT get fun?" Jayne: "Serenity"
Hi Swann - I'm in Jersey too. Wanna chat off TOD? I'm at: bk "at" bkhere.com
Anything I do to educate the world on this, I do pretty anonymously. It's an odd sort of activism, but the stuff you might wish to tell the world is not necessarily the stuff you want to tell those nearby. Because the fact is you will NOT convince your neighbors of peak oil, but once they get hungry they'll have time to think, and they'll think about who might have the stuff they don't.
Think globally, act sheeplike locally. When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
As I said before, I alternate between the Matt Savinar and Alan Drake camps.
A scary story in support of Matt's thesis: Wednesday night, a woman (eight months pregnant) and her husband were peacefully sleeping in their upscale urban downtown Dallas apartment, with windows facing a freeway. Someone driving past the area at 2:00 A.M. sprayed the apartment complex with random gunfire. One of the bullets went through the window and hit the woman in the abdomen, killing the baby. The apartment management had already canceled plans for more apartments because of high security costs and lower than expected rents (due to high crime rates). I expect random acts of violence to become more common, especially against those perceived as being better off.
Having said that, I have proposed an acronym, wEn: Alan Drake's Electrification of Transportation Plan (E) supported by wind (w) and nuclear (n), if for no other reason that we are going to desperately need the jobs for unemployed angry males.
Edit: after reader feedback, how about the "nEw Program."
Am I optimistic? No. Can we at least try? Yes.
Geez, Matt, they're gonna find out. I hope people aren't planning with the idea that this will be our little secret. It seems like the point of this website is to analyze the situation and spread the meme. It also seems like the news on your website is about informing people too. If not, why do you post things there?
I think *everyone* is going to figure out that the wheels are coming off. Probably about a quarter will figure out why, and about a quarter of those will really understand what's going on and how big the problem is. All we get is a headstart and some amount of roadmap. Count your blessings.
Sure my town may become Baghdad, but at least I know it may become Baghdad. I can do a lot of good with that amount of knowledge - I may even be able to help more than my family. If we're all going to be playing defense, and there's safety in numbers, the more you can help, the better.
I seriously doubt anything I do at my 6,500 visit a day site is going to have any discernable effect on the aggregate population or the markets in the aggregate.
So I can speak the truth as I see it there with no concerne it's going to affect the markets or the population in the aggregate.
The site averages 6,500 or so visits a day but my guess is there are only 3,000 or so regular readers. So my impact is pretty minimal in the big picture.
I honestly think you're wrong. If Rainwater looked at LATOC even once, it had an effect. I bet you're having a much larger impact than you imagine. Is it going to change the world? That depends on how many people in power find your site. I bet some people in charge in my town of 100,000 have. I've talked with some of them and they're starting to get it.
Heck, if nothing else, maybe MSM articles will end up sending some business your way.
CATASTROPHE NOW, "COMPLETE CAPITULATION" OR PANIC IN PANIC-VILLE?
STATUS REPORT ON THE "LAST SUMMER"
These are fascinating times. As of today, June 14th, 2007, President G.W. Bush's popularity in polling among the people of the United States fell to it's lowest point ever.
The Iraq war is still going on, and how can we say this with politeness, the U.S. is suffering some difficulty in accomplishing it's goals.
Venesuela's government is working from the Bolívar complex recipe book, the normal ingredients: Single party politics, shut down opposition press, nationalize all productive industries and make them non-productive. Of course everyone will act surprised when we begin to hear the stories of those who dissapear in the night.
The Shieks of Persian Gulf oil nations are again shopping big in the West with airplanes, houses, businesses, cars, horses, women and power all on the shopping list and chants of "praise Allah for oil" on the lips.
And there will be property for the Shieks to buy if they want a suburban house on the edge of a major U.S. city or town, as home foreclosures hit a new monthly record, threatening Bear Stearns Corp. and other hedge funds backed by mortgage bonds with billions in losses and even possible failure.
The worst drought since the early 1970's bakes the American South, causing the intellectuals to notice something they had somehow missed when they planned the biofuel revolution: Grain crops sometimes fail.
Magazines are once again full of "energy geek" articles, showing solar farms, wind farms, ethanol farms, coal to liquid plants, synfuels plants, nuclear plants, tar sand pits, nuclear powered tar sand pits, and nuclear heated shale oil mines. "Fuel Cell", "Hydrogen fuel", and "Electric Car" are buzzwords again for the first time in over 30 years. Dusty drawings of "hybrids" and "flywheel cars" and "high speed rail" are being reborn, this time not in the pages of techno/science/handyman magazines, but on the computer screen in high content websites.
The popular press is beginning to join in, with the song of the Carter era, "All the big oil is gone" sung to the survivalist tune of "A Country Boy Will Survive", liner notes by Ted Kaczynski,
"If the system breaks down the consequences will still be very painful. But the bigger the system grows the more disastrous the results of its breakdown will be, so if it is to break down it had best break down sooner rather than later.
http://www.ed.brocku.ca/~rahul/Misc/unibomber.html
Fan club, located somewhere in the dreamy stone age headquartered at the Green Anarchist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Anarchism
----
So, is this it? As Merle Haggard asked in the 1970's, "Are the good times really over for good?"
Or are we nearing what the investment community likes to call "Complete Capitulation", that point just before the turn when things seem the absolute worst, when investors put all thier money in safety, not risk, and when people begin to look for escape routes to use for flight, and some even go so far as to flee? It is said that the most benefit is gained and the most money made by having the nerve to bet against the crowd, when there is "blood in the streets", when everyone, EVERYONE agrees that it is only going to get worse, WORSE. Uttter and complete captiulation.
Or is it "panic in panic-ville? The peddlers of panic have been spending the last 3 to 5 summers blogging warnings, "This is probably the summer it happens, sh*t hits the fan, the end of the world as we know it, get your garden out, sell your investments, this is probably the last summer of the world you have known.
But each summer, despite hurricanes, "refinery" outages, war in the Persian Gulf, war in the occupied territories and the refugee camps of the dispossessed, at the end of summer, things have back pretty much like they were at the beginning of summer. Oh sure the price spikes on the summer holidays, LPG prices climb when the gas grilling season goes up, and somewhere in the country, there is always a run of drought and wildfires, but....the big catastrophe stubbornly refuses to get off it's azz and come out for the show.
The panic peddlers now seem to be showing signs of panic. Some of them, very well respected and very wealthy and well connected, have made these pronouncements in the mainstream media, on the "big stage".
The followers of the great panic sages are forgiving, one will be forgving of a fellow traveller, a partisan. But outsiders are not so easily pleased. "Come on, show us the money!" they will shout, and even more so if they have invested and planned thier affiars based on the sage's advice.
The sages are now doubling down, pinning even more on wilder rhetoric, "stone age by 2030", "the end of oil", "we're running out of oil" and "dieoff" are more commonly heard, and the time frame is given not for peak only, but for models depicting the almost complete disappearance of all human created energy in a rapidly descending decline into the "Olduvai" gorge, with depictions of cave dwellers carrying spears at the bottom of the hole.
In the meantime, out in the real world, the catastrophic failure refuses to even get underway. SUV sales flatten, but overall hold steady if the incentives are stuck on the windshield, air traffic continues to grow at chaotic pace, and resorts, casinos, and giant ocean front condos are built with abandon. If one promoter bellies up on them, another will sign on the line and get them on the cheap, and resyndicate the whole deal.
Oil production flattens, even falls a bit (hard to tell how much, it depends on who is doing the stats), but the trucks dragging the boats roll on.
And oil prices? High by historical standards, but compared to any other consumer commodity or luxury? Givaway cheap, even now, cheaper than the Europeans and many Asian peoples have been paying for a decade. Compared to income and money in savings or investments, oil barely measures on the bottom of the "this could be a problem" scale for anyone middle class or above, and that is including the massive waste these people willingly carry.
So, is there any real sign this is "the last summer" of ball games, trips to the lake, car races and national parks, college kids driving cross country, office girls going to Club Med or sophisticated daughters flying to Rome or Paris?
The last summer of nice expensive restuarants, of air conditioned rooms in upmarket hotels in which to nestle with your lover, of fresh seafood from the coast hauled deep inland?
Perhaps. The scary part is, we cannot know. Like death, which may strike at any moment, the end of an age may be within weeks. We simply cannot know. It may be caused by an astronomical event, or a natural occurance of great magnitude, or a nuclear war. We cannot know. Or, it may come due to the thirst of the world, and the lack of ability to satisfy that thirst, as we begin to wind down, from 85 million barrels a day, to 82, to 79....we know it HAS TO HAPPEN. Why not this coming month? Or same time next year? Or...at the half century mark? We just cannot know.
And the truth is, this could have happened in any summer in the last 35 years.
We really had no way to know. And until we develop alternatives and diversify, it will be true EVERY SUMMER from now on. Any summer, this one, or the next, or one 30 years from now could be the last great summer, the last one with the energy to live the way in which modern humans are accustomed to living. We simply cannot know. A small group of thinkers, of radical tendency would say, as Ted did in his cabin building bombs, "good, the end cannot come soon enough." Most of us would not agree.
But if we look around, at the way people are living, the way they are wasting, they way in which they are enjoying life, we must admit:
(a) The catastrophe, the final summer is not here yet.
(b) If we are working toward "complete capitulation" we are not there yet. We are nowhere near the pain this nation endured for example from 1973 to 1982. We will have to go much deeper into the hole before the next great boom will be able to manifest itself. Everyone will have to believe we are deep in the Olduvial hole. EVERYONE. I have seen it just so in years gone by.
It did not mean we were in the last great summer. It simply meant everyone BELIEVED we were in the last great summer. And they believed it for years.
(c) By the end of this summer, sometime around the World Series, if the catastrophe has not began to manifest itself, if at least some serious shiit has not yet hit the fan, many have heard the panic, who are not used to the endless summers of "last summers" will mock very loudly.
The big ones, the wheels, the peak experts who "knew" have predicted much. Show me the money! The seriousness of the real problem will begin to be doubted, people will walk away. The panic peddlers will have used thier last shot of outragous rhetoric in the "panic in Panic-ville". The panic has a shelf life. Staying in permanent panic is impossible, it is not sustainable. We are starting to near the "sell by" date on this one.
Even though it is bitterly denied here, technology is improving. Design is improving. Alternatives are beginning to gain a beachhead. Scale of application of alternatives is growing, they are not "mousemilk" runs anymore. Money. Customers. The alternatives have been with us for decades, but they are now beginning to attach customers to money to ideas. If the industrial revolution taught us anything it is that once past the stage of "confluence", advanced technology is as powerful as virus, it will multiply, mutate, and multiply again. It is all but impossible to stop once it begins to spread.
This panic has a shelf life.
We will see. We will talk again on this subject after the World Series. The shiit may all hit the fan by then, the end of the world as we know it may be here. We may have no web to even communicate on.
The Cincinnatti Reds may win the World Series. They are currently in last place in the NL Central, 10 games behind first place.
Who knows? There is no way to know.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
I've read a lot of stuff on here, I like numbers, data, and facts. But, sometimes an opinion filled post gives a better look into the reality of the situation. I think we are looking for a perfect storm that is not done developing.
Peak oil on its own will not cause TEOTWAWKI, neither will China having $1 trillion+, housing markets, the national debt, or dollar weakness, etc.
My guess is when the US isn't importing more energy each year AND it starts to degrade our GDP AND we either default on a debt or in some other way lose the borrowing worlds trust THEN look out.
Great comment TIIO,
however you said "I have seen it just so in years gone by.
It did not mean we were in the last great summer. It simply meant everyone BELIEVED we were in the last great summer. And they believed it for years."
************************************************************
Lots of smoke but no bbq.
From the Class of '57 perspective then.
Once we were not a big nationstate. We were just Amerkuh. We had cars that we hotrodded, very cheap gas, the summers were great, the girls were not putting out like today. You had to go to work as a teenager and beer was not that easy to get as a youth and drugs were non-existant.We camped out with the Boy Scouts and thought mostly of girls and how to score. Life was great.We looked forward to a grownup world and THE AMERKUHAN DREAM.
Today you have to hide your eyes to keep from seeing all the porn and naked flesh. 12 year olds are way way into full body sex. Boy Scouts are marginalilzed. Anyone can get beer but its that nasty LITE swill. No one 'camps out' anymore.
The problem is how to keep girls off your body. The body thats there just for metal inserts and tattooing.
AND GAS IS VERY EXPENSIVE with a caveat,,that being that those who believed in this lifestyle and worked hard,retired and are now on a FIXED pension and while prices skyrocket their incomes are solidly locked down and fixed , in fact some diminsh.They are already suffering very badly as a result. Very badly and no one cares for they are too busy sucking up all the oxygen.
So the change in the Amerkuhan lifestyle has been massive.
We have no industry to speak of.
We are invaded by another country obstensibly because we do not want to work and they do it for us(a lie).
We are awash in drugs.
Women are not worshipped, they are used for many outre purposes.
Our leaders are now full fledged liars.
No one is patriotic.
Our business leaders have lied massively and raped out country.
Our media is nothing but liars and shills. There is NOT freedom of the press. Its Freedom to Lie now.
Children are not healthy but have many many mental and health problems.
Our food is utter scum and filth.
Instead of feeding ourselves well ,we send the best we have to markets overseas and destroy our land in the process.
And lastly NO ONE GIVES A SHIT about all the above.
I could have gone on and on and on. From a 68 year perspective I have seen massive change. NOT BAU. Huge changes and mostly it was good up until about the latter 70's and then it all started to fall apart.Its been downhill ever since.
It in fact has gotten to the point that I am sure many are sick and tired and really could care less about what the future holds.
The answer then?
Withdraw from the madness. Work on your own lifestyle. Prepare for a disaster in the making. Remove yourself from the vehicle that is heading for the abyss beyond the guard rail. Find some peace somewhere. Try to live a simpler life.
Eat well by providing for yourself.
Remember what once made this country great and try to live with that in mind.
If you have children remove them from the failing schools. Teach them yourself. Make them independent instead of just being a pincushion for metal and their body a canvas for needlework.
The old song:
"Teach your children well."
"And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon, Little boy blue and the man in the moon. "When you coming home, dad?"
In fact there are a lot of old songs that speak to this,to our once greatness and concern. We just trashed it for the newer stuff that is just scratching,screaming,incomphrenhiable, meaningless drivel served up by idiots who teach kids how to do drugs and become sociopaths. And for God's sake shut off the nauseous sports nonsense. There are no longer any sports that make sense. Least of all the Olympics.
Once they were referred to as 'sportsman'. Now they are not worthy of any appellation except fools.
Yes there has been a lot of change..and now we have taken it to the point of destruction. We have failed all along the way. We asked our leaders to lead us into perdition and we are soon to arrive. (not so much asked as abdicated).
We went after the flesh,the materialistic life and forgot about our souls and spiritside. We will now pay the price and its going to cost heavily. Our children will be harmed badly. Our culture will alter greatly if it survives in any meaningful form.
In the dim future many may ask. "How could they have been such utter fools?" "What the hell were they thinking?"
Oh they thought.."well it will all work out,it always does."
Sure.
Airdale-you asked...I answered,,or did you ask? Not sure but this member of C.O.'57 surely doesn't see it being the same as it always was and is. From the farm and a good healthy life, to the burbs and corporate Amurkah, and then disgust and so back to the farm and hunker down mode. I now ride the harley thru the country side,,averaging 45-50mpg, and check it out for myself. I see it..the change. Lots of change.not good either.Bad juju. A bad moon on the rise and no MoJo working either.
In the CITIES YMMV and of course you don't always see the darkside. You have many 'tainments and the info ones to keep you from visiting the darkside. In the burbs you live a sanitary life. One where no thought process is required. Just consume and consume..it will all work out. Consuming is what your advised by the endless infomercials to perform. Its the Amurkan way...no Dream..just STFU and consume.
And hey..there is always Dr. Phil!
Airdale-been there,have the scars,now its my way....the DirecTV dish was yanked two summers ago..the wife still loves me but we do it differently these days...Natch..she's a boomer and I am a 'silent'. (silent generation)..shhhhhh..
Air: Glory days-don't let them pass you by-Glory days-in the wink of a young girl's eye-Glory days, Glory day a a aze!
I've certainly not seen as much of it happening as you, but I'm well aware of how much has changed, and most not for the better. I understand what Roger is saying as well - the resilience of the status quo is often amazing - but we must not loose sight of just how fast things are moving now. It may not be the last great summer, and for my children's sake I hope it is not, but it will be a very different summer from the ones I knew.
I believe things are about to make a step change. I don't know when, but I think the idea that it won't happen because it never happened before is faulty. It may well be that we are in the midst of the step now, but simply cannot see it for what it is.
Anyway, I will make my lifestyle changes because that's how I want to live, and if they prepare me for what comes, so much the better.
""When coke was still cola and the joint was a bad place to be""
""We are rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell""
I can honestly say I have never had this problem.
:(
Adam: When posters start complaining about "problems" like that one you know the thread is getting a little doomer.
So Roger, what is your gut feel when the "Last Summer" will be?
Panic... what panic? Panic is for those without enough intelligence or foresight to spot an obvious trend and make adjustments while its still possible. Its possible to avoid (most) panic situations with appropriate risk mitigation.
I feel it is obvious that what is happening today, in this country, is simply not sustainable. Period.
Take your pick of the issues.
- How long can we punish and rape the environment and all that it has to offer?
- How long can we pump black flowing gold from the ground and burn it with careless abandon?
- How long can the USA pile on nearly a trillion dollars of debt per year?
The three points above have serious sustainability issues and change will happen so they reach some kind of equilibrium. Is that the last summer?
There will be no "Last Summer" until you are dead. There will be "Different Summers".
How different will they be? Depends on how you view and mitigate risk; prepare for obvious trends; and what your expectations are for an enjoyable life.
Sandor,
I think your pretty much on....your right about there being no "last summer" until you are dead. I was defining the last summer in the context of the discussion of the way the advanced nations live now. The whole little essay was built around this paragraph:
"And the truth is, this could have happened in any summer in the last 35 years.
We really had no way to know. And until we develop alternatives and diversify, it will be true EVERY SUMMER from now on. Any summer, this one, or the next, or one 30 years from now could be the last great summer, the last one with the energy to live the way in which modern humans are accustomed to living. We simply cannot know. A small group of thinkers, of radical tendency would say, as Ted did in his cabin building bombs, "good, the end cannot come soon enough." Most of us would not agree."
So, I agree, how we (I don't think it is going to be workable to divorce ourselves from the fortunes of our culture, so it will be "we" not "me")
prepare for as many possible scenarios as we can will matter a great deal in how we get to live, and agaiin I agree, "expectations" mean a great deal. I have not yet turned on my air conditioner this summer. I have friends who would be calling a service company if they could not have had it running in mid April, and have not had AC off since....they expect it.
But until we make major changes in our energy regime, there will never again be the summers or the years where we can simply take energy for granted, we that we simply know it is there. Those days ended in 1970 for the United States. We just put it our of our mind for awhile. And even if Ghawar can still shoot out a flood of oil at will, it doesn't change things. We still cannot KNOW that we will get it. We will always KNOW that it is not our oil, and it could start to tap out at any moment.
That is the reality we are adjusting to, whether it's peak now or peak in 30 years.
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
As a Cincinnati Reds fan, let me say that while it is theoretically possible they will win the World Series this year, I sure as heck wouldn't bet on it. In fact, I'd say you're on pretty safe ground betting against it.
Well, the Indians are in first place this year (again) -
more than just a penant title this year?
Don't you really think that the INDIANS finally have a real chance at the title??
The "Racist Mascots" are really deep in talent this year. They certainly have a better chance than the hapless Reds.
But a chance is not the same as a good chance. I don't think any team has a good chance at this point. Too many things can happen. And what got you to the postseason won't necessarily get you the jewelry. Luck is a big part of baseball. It will even out over the long regular season, but during a short series (and even seven games is a short series), luck can make or break you.
So what you're saying is that the polically uncorect have been out of luck since '48?
Where's Jonny Bench when you need him??
Nah, I'm saying I do believe in statistics, but only if the sample size is large enough. ;-)
I'm rooting for the heroin addict they have in center field.
Also rooting for the Cardinals Rick Ankiel's comeback as an outfielder. I said way back in 2001 when he had his meltdown that his career as a pitcher was over and that I'd bet he'd make it as fourth outfielder in 5-7 years time. Right now he's kicking ass at AAA. I read he's got 15 bombs already.
I think everyone is. (Though I think his addiction was to cocaine, crack, and alcohol, not heroin.)
I had really high hopes for him in spring training. But I gotta say, I got a bad feeling about him now. He's always sick, he got put on the DL and sent home to NC on a rehab assignment even though he seemed to be fine and was playing well. Several fans have reported seeing him boozing it up at bars and nightclubs. Drinking is not illegal, but it's probably not a good idea for someone with his history.
Boy, that's weird. Usually, it's the opposite. Players who can't make it as outfielders (because they can't hit) become pitchers.
True (Troy Percival was a originally catcher, Trevor Hoffman an infielder, etc.) but consider some notable exceptions:
Babe Ruth was a pitcher before switching to hitting.
Mark McGwire was primarily a pitcher at USC. I read some scouting report on him from back then, it was pretty funny. Something like "might get a cup of coffee as a 5th starter" or something to that effect.
"It is said that the most benefit is gained and the most money made by having the nerve to bet against the crowd, when there is 'blood in the streets'"
Go ahead. Do it. I dare you. It'll give me something to laugh about when TSHTF this fall.
Who the hell is "the crowd" on that comment? TOD people? I tought we where minoritary...
What the cubicle boys forget is that "blood in the streets" can be interpreted in a number of ways, one of them being literal and theirs.
They also forget that sheepdogs may not guard all the sheep.
One of the Rothschilds was the origin of the quote "I buy when there is blood in the streets."
He meant it quite literally, as 19th century Paris was occasionally convulsed with revolutionary uprisings and violent suppression thereof.
Will it be a good time to buy when there's plutonium in the streets? Not sure.
So, the word is out. Anyone has idea how this would affect people. If they start to hoard a minimal amount of oil or food or any other product the market would collapse in weeks. How much food is in supermarket? I read once that supplies are always low, its more profitable this way. And the gasoline is a day away above mol in eastern states of US.
The shop would rise a price (larger demand and reduced supply). This news alone can break the neck of modern civilization. I will now go and buy some flour and oil (cooking type of) my bike is two days old and i laugh when i heard a price, what would be price of bike in Serbia in a week, two weeks?
Are we a ready for the show? I'm not but so what, its time for some history.
April 2007 India oil production was up YOY. There was a double digit increase in refinery capacity with the addition of a new refinery.
There was in increase in crude oil imports of 2.84 mt.
There was an increase in the export of refined products of 1.28 mt.
Gasoline consumption increased more than 10 percent.
At this rate oil consumption might double in India by 2015.
http://eaindustry.nic.in/six_infra/overview.htm
Slowly expanding oil production in India cannot keep pace with demand.
"So, the word is out."
Don't worry. They will pick this one statement out of the entire article and discount the rest.
"If so, GLOBAL PRODUCTION will bump along near THESE LEVELS FOR YEARS before beginning an inexorable decline."
Probably won't affect most people. Only if it gets there several times, from several different sources, at several different media we'll see some reaction.
This is way of topic, but did anyone else experience a strange redirect yesterday on TOD? Every time I tried to access TOD, it would load the front page and then go to a window with only digg it icons displayed. That happened from about 1pm CST to last night.
Looks fixed this morning.
dragonfly
same problem. couldn't connect to tod all evening due to automatic redirect to diggit.
registered, commented . still couldn't access tod
btw went to fill up yesterday and gas station empty- central nc
Did you just report the end of the world awki and nobody was listening? Have a nice (driving) week end!
Cheers, Dom
Munich
On Thursday I was tweaking some of TOD's code. Unfortunately, I put something in that did not agree with Internet Explorer and was causing the redirects you saw. I didn't notice it because I was using Firefox at the time.
The problem persisted from about 4p EDT until about midnight, at which time I fixed the problem. Everything should be back to normal now.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Shew...I thought you got hacked or something (me being a doomer and all). Glad it's all cleared up. Thanks for staying on top of everything Suger G.
I was experiencing solid page loading problems. Partial page and then stop.
I finally deleted the TOD cookie and was ok after a new login and a new cookie. Cookies usually control session activity hence paging.
Of course I could have reloaded a cookie at the exact moment that someone fixed a problem. Doubtful though.
Whatever,its working now. To prove it I tried the Mozilla browser in lieu of my usual Firefox and it ran correctly. Proof it was cookie oriented. If your cookie gets zonked its always best to renew it before taking other measures.
Airdale
Dragon: Did it in Explorer so I went to Firefox and it was OK.
Explorer wouldn't work. Firefox gave this:
if ( isset($pdf) ) { $font = Font_Metrics::get_font("verdana"); $size = 10; $pdf->page_text(54, 34, "The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: June 13, 2007", $font, $size, array(0,0,0)); $pdf->page_text(576-$pdf->get_text_width("http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2660", $font,$size), 34, "http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2660", $font, $size, array(0,0,0)); $pdf->page_text(54, 748, "Page {PAGE_NUM} of {PAGE_COUNT}", $font, $size, array(0,0,0)); $pdf->page_text(576-$pdf->get_text_width("Generated on June 14, 2007 at 9:49 pm", $font, $size), 748, "Generated on June 14, 2007 at 9:49 pm", $font, $size, array(0,0,0)); }
Today I get this at the head of this post window:
* warning: include(/main/analytics.inc) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening '/main/analytics.inc' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/share/pear:/usr/share/php') in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include(/main/ads.inc) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening '/main/ads.inc' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/share/pear:/usr/share/php') in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include(/main/blogroll.inc) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
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* warning: include(/main/personnel.inc) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening '/main/personnel.inc' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/share/pear:/usr/share/php') in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include(/main/chicklets.inc) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
* warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening '/main/chicklets.inc' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/share/pear:/usr/share/php') in /home/vhosts/drupal.theoildrum.com/public_html/includes/common.inc(1342) : eval()'d code on line 4.
Is my browser messed up, or is this happening today to others? wonder if this will post.
Here is a link to a story that claims to be fact. I haven't verified this, but, it sure makes a hell of a lot of sense to me. It does, it explains quite a bit. Simply amazing. An oh yes, it does imply huge changes. Get ready for a new ride, because the old ride just disappeared.
doesn't make sense, oh yes it does, read this
This is not a scientific paper, its someone using the information and using it as a basis for this theory.
The part about not moving anymore at an angle but part of the milky way, hard to say. I dont see where he knows or shows that this would be the last pass through.
Interesting part was the relationship between the star system basis for the mayan calender will not work after this pass. Interesting to see if that happens.
http://curezone.com/blogs/m.asp?f=1207&i=2
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
Nice pictures! What product did you use to create them? You see, buddy, they're not real. We on Earth cannot take far off photos of the milky way and our own solar system because we cannot do space flight. Oh wait, that's right, the aliens gave them to use! Wow. Is that the ones doing the abductions? Or those on the Twilight Zone?
-
James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.
Clap,clap.
Awww righhhttttt.Good shew! (spell alert for Blair,spell alert HONK!!!)
I really really miss Twin Peaks. The log woman,she had it right. The dancing midget...I can still hear that haunting music. Whatever happened to real good TV shows..oh I pulled the plug on the satellite...righttt.
Bravo James! But hey....aren't you going to prove/disprove for Prisoner? Superstring theory yada yada...
Airdale
Apparently you did not check any of the references in the article. Let me help you out:
University of Virginia:
http://astsun.astro.virginia.edu/~mfs4n/sgr/
http://www.virginia.edu/topnews/releases2003/milky-sept-24-2003.html
Announcement by George Mason University and University of Arizona:
http://abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2007/1942665.htm
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/05/11/solarsystem_spa.html?category=s...
http://www.iirobotics.com/content/view/940/137/
Other announcements about the out of plane extra arm of the Milky Way:
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s1102537.htm
Also note that the pictures in the originally referenced article are actually the property of the University of Virginia so are you calling them liars too?
Now to the best of my knowledge no reputable astronomer has made the conclusion made in the article referenced by PrisonerX, namely that our solar system is not native to the Milky Way. However, given the above reputable science sources and the data therein, one can see how that conclusion might be derived.
We have:
1. A dwarf galaxy being consumed by the Milky Way.
2. The dwarf galaxy traveling the "wrong way" through the Milky Way and at 60-90 degree angles.
3. Our own solar system has been found to be traveling the wrong way and at 60-90 degree angles to the Milky Way.
These are confirmed observations by reputable astronomers. There's a possible conclusion there but no one is saying it out loud yet, at least not in the astronomy community.
This is reasonably common knowledge in the astronomical community. For you to belittle key pieces of observed data demonstrates ignorance.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
GZ,
I would not want to belittle university efforts at astronomy and good research.
However if you read the page where the URL pointed to you bullshit detector soon starts screaming in the background.
The wording turned me off real fast. This is the problem with the web.
One statement was like this,"never could figure why the milky way was always on edge"...doesn't sound to scientific.
Another was that this explained why we are having GW. Again a rather strange conclusion.
Someone grabs some research data and begins making wild claims from assumptions. The problem with the web.
If PrisionerX had pointed to the acutal research by U of V that would have been of more value.
Perhaps I read it wrong, however PrisionerX has been making some wild posts regarding science, so I tend to discount it.
Since you declare it reputable I will research it further and read more. I am and have been a sci-fi reader for a long time. Physics and related fields have also been on my reading lists. And you may note that E.B.does shine me on about my interest in hydrinos and Mills et at.
Airdale-the url/website is still sitting in one of my browser tabs since yesterday on my screen....
Here is a copy of one of the statements I found rather hard to swallow as regards GW:(the larger cause?"
"While the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels cyclically charted by such scientists and researchers as quoted by Al Gore are powerful indicators, and even possible contributors to the unmistakable levels of climate and other changes, and pollution from the choices man has made are an increasing burden to the ecosystem of the planet, the larger cause of global warming by far is the first time in history event of the permanent merging of Earth and the Solar System with the higher energy state equatorial-orbital-disc region of the spiral armed Milky Way Galaxy."
No, Airdale, I don't declare the original article reputable but the sources the original article cites are reputable. And as I noted, these are verifiable observations. What the original article did was run with those observations into territory that is not proven one way or another.
However, trying to dismiss the entire article is wrong too because it does cite some of those actual observations. Rather than condemning the entire thing, one might be better served by pointing out what is really known versus what the original article asserts.
Personally, it's a fascinating topic, that the Milky Way actually is devouring the Sagitarius dwarf cluster/small galaxy. And further, it is a rather odd situation that both the Sagitarius dwarf cluster is moving the wrong way through the Milky Way and at about 60-90 degree angles while we have just discovered that the earth is doing very similar things.
That doesn't mean we are originally part of the dwarf cluster though that is one possible conclusion. If you read the astronomical literature though there is another opinion that the magnetic field created by this cluster is affecting stars within the Milky Way as well and may be a factor in sweeping additional stars into its path. That is why no astronomers have said anything on this - because there appears to be more than one possible answer still so we need more data. In fact, one astronomer commented that it was extraordinary that we had never detected this from earth and could only verify it using Voyager I & II data.
And while it does not affect our fate here on earth, I simply found the University research papers to be very interesting in what they had actually discovered.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Does this mean I can go back to planting by the signs of the zodiac or not?
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett just read the entire article to the House of Representatives! Turn on C-SPAN if you have it... he's still going!
____________________
MySpace.com/ziontherapy
From the article:
dude they could at least cite you on that stuff! Well we all know what/who they've been reading.
Well, it's really hard to do truly original work. The consumption side of my Export Land model was inspired by Matt Simmons' earlier work. Also, I sent my stuff to Albert Bartlett. He is mailing me an article he did 21 years ago on future problems with oil exports.
Having said all of that, it is nice to have some company. The math on the net export problem has been clear to me since late 2005, and I have been amazed that anyone really contested the Export Land Model. Most people have taken comfort from the "worst case" projection for a gradual decline in world oil production.
The problem is that exports don't show a gradual decline. It's more akin to a crash than a decline, e.g., 60% per year decline in UK exports, 16% per year decline in Mexican exports. IMO, the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy is draining away in front of our very eyes.
Let me put it this way, a gradual decline in production is like a commercial airliner descending gradually from cruising altitude. An export crash is more like a terrifying near vertical dive into the ground.
Nice analogy regarding export crashes. Will be borrowing that one. Will I be giving you credit? Of course not!
That's okay. I "borrow" all the time.
Most people have taken comfort from the "worst case" projection for a gradual decline in world oil production.
WT, that would be me :) I have often quoted that ASPO's predicted decline rate is an average -1.4% (approx 1.25 Mbpd per year) . Your point is that producing nations will keep increasing amounts for themselves and leave less available for importing countries like the USA and now, the UK (where I live). I believe you, just not sure it constitutes a crisis. How bad is the problem and how fast can we adapt?
How bad is the problem and how fast can we adapt [in the UK]?
It will get bad fast, a ten year span (perhaps 2009 to 2018) will see dramatic changes in energy availability with repercussions throughout the economy and general society.
Think not in single years but in half decades and decades.
Since Blair canceled three tram lines after years of design and planning and just before they started construction, I am doubtful that Britain can adapt quickly. OTOH, those and other plans still exist.
The UK had a historic rail system that was the best in the world at one time, and still has working central cities. She has a superb wind resource. She also has sprawl everywhere in the South of England.
I think the UK will muddle through a terrible time and far too slowly pull things together.
Best Hopes for Britain,
Alan
alan
We are in the early stages of working up some models for net exports by at least the top five net exporters (half of world net exports).
Based on the HL models, Saudi Arabia is around 65% depleted, Russia around 85% depleted (at least mature basins), Norway 70% depleted, Iran and UAE about 50% depleted.
If their consumption grows by 5% per year (it was up by 5.5% from 2005 to 2006), and if their production declines by 5% per year (top five non-Russian crude oil production declined at 6% per year from 3/06 to 3/07), their net exports will be at zero in 14 years.
The big hit will be when Russia starts showing lower production--it has basically been flat since October, 2006 (EIA, C+C).
Business Week was also the first mainstream magazine that I remember taking global warming seriously, i.e. not just running GW as a he-said-she-said story.
Kudos to whoever manages it. Unlike most, they've got a head on their shoulders.
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