 | Localism and some thoughts on Social Change | The Oil Drum | Cyclone Gonu Thread 3 (Last Updated 10pm EDT, 6/6) |  |
DrumBeat: June 5, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 5, 2007 - 9:15am
U.S. economy's fate in Saudi hands
Saudi Arabia is running the U.S. economy.I'm not sure the Saudis want the task, but they've got it. Because the United States still doesn't have a national energy policy, we've thrown decisions about how fast our economy grows and whether our standard of living rises or falls into the hands of Saudi Arabia's oil ministry.
That's risky, since the economic self-interest of Saudi Arabia and the United States aren't always aligned, and because keeping the fractious and often dysfunctional governments of the world's oil producers on the same economic course is a whole lot harder than building consensus among the governors of the Federal Reserve.
EIA: OPEC needs to boost 2nd-half output
OPEC will need to boost its output in the second half of 2007 to meet winter heating demand, but it's too late for the producers' group to have much impact on U.S. oil supplies this summer, the U.S. government's top energy forecaster told Reuters on Monday.
GM CEO: Alternatives to gas needed
General Motors Chairman Rick Wagoner told company shareholders Tuesday that moving away from gasoline-powered cars is crucial for the company's long-term business prospects, although he argued tougher government regulations on mileage requirements are not the way to get there.
Honda Decides to Stop Making Hybrid Accords
Honda will discontinue the hybrid version of its Accord sedans, the company said Tuesday, ceding Toyota's dominance of the market with its Prius hybrid.Honda Motor Co., Japan's No. 2 automaker, will continue to make gas-and-electric models of its Civic sedan, but stop offering the hybrid Accord with the new model expected to go on sale later this year, company spokesman Yoshiyuki Kuroda said in Tokyo.
Manufacturing our way out of overshoot
Humans have constructed a civilization that is based upon the profligate use of fuels and resources, and we have done so by harnessing the power of manufacturing. William Catton Jr. first used the term “overshoot” to describe the human condition in his 1980 book of the same name. He defined the term as “growth beyond an area’s carrying capacity”, in our case the area being the entire planet. In order to reconstruct global civilization so that we live well within the productive capacity of Earth, we are going to have to rely on the same human talent to use tools and machines that got us into this mess in the first place.
The Pentagon foresees a two-front threat to national security: global instability spurred by climate change and a crippling dependence on oil.
IEA urges Germany to reconsider plans for phase-out of nuclear energy
Germany should reconsider a plan to phase out nuclear energy or it will undermine the security of its power supply and make it harder to tackle global warming, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.
Ford engineer says plug-in hybrid fuel-cell cars may reach market first
With the Hydrogen Highway still largely a dream outside California, Ford Motor Co. sees plug-in hybrid fuel-cell cars as a transitional step, says one of the automaker's top engineers in the field.
20 countries interested in floating nuclear plants
A Russian nuclear official said Monday that over 20 countries are interested in the floating nuclear power plants (NPP) Russia is building.
Indonesia Won't Allow Oil Palm Growers to Cut Forests
Indonesia, the world's third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, won't allow oil palm growers to cut primary forests for establishing plantations, Minister for Environment Rachmat Witoelar said.
The DesMoines Register has a special report on how ethanol is working so far:
Biofuel plants generate new air, water, soil problems for Iowa
Iowa's ramped-up ethanol and biodiesel fuel production led to 394 instances over the past six years in which the plants fouled the air, water or land or violated regulations meant to protect the health of Iowans and their environment.
Water quality: Wastewater often pollutes rivers
Eleven biofuels plants have been cited by the state Department of Natural Resources for wastewater violations that include polluting streams based on permit limits under the federal Clean Water Act, according to the Register's analysis of state records for 34 plants in operation during six years.
Water use: Biofuel plants' thirst creates water worries
A single plant producing 100 million gallons of ethanol a year - a capacity quickly becoming the norm - uses as much water as a town of approximately 10,000 people, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources reports.
Air: Plants emit higher levels of toxics than expected: Facilities have run key tests at less-than-full capacity and exceeded limits for harmful emissions
The infractions are perhaps the most surprising in biofuels plants' environmental performance, said Wayne Gieselman, Iowa's environmental-protection chief. That's because as the industry grew in Iowa, no one expected the levels of cancer-causing chemicals emitted by both combustion and the production processes at the plants.
Erosion: Drive to increase corn acres could damage soil
Plowing trees and native grasses on land held in conservation to plant more corn will reverse decades of work to prevent crop-related pollution, scientists say.There's more, including possible solutions.
Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought - Climate models indicate region will be as dry as Dust Bowl for decades
Changing climate will mean increasing drought in the American Southwest — a region where water already is in tight supply — according to a new study.
WEC Survey: Energy Execs See Oil in $60-80 Range for 5 Years
Senior energy executives don't expect oil and gas prices to increase dramatically in the next five years, but the political risk attached to them means coal and nuclear power will become an ever more important part of the global energy mix, a survey from the World Energy Council published Monday showed.Out of a survey of 50 senior executives from major global energy companies and their strategic suppliers conducted over the last 18 months, more than 65% of those surveyed expected the oil price to remain in the $60-80-a-barrel range for the next five years.
Respondents saw some stability within this range. Just 5% believed oil prices would rise above $80 a barrel, and less than 30% said it would fall below $60 a barrel.
There's no shortage of questions surrounding the disrupted plot to blow up fuel pipelines at John F. Kennedy International Airport. Among the most pressing: what sort of jihadist organization would operate in the Carribean, where radicalized Muslims are comparatively few? According to a 2005 analysis by the Jamestown Foundation, not the most advanced.
Mexico's economy: Fiscal reform is coming soon
At present, some 10% of fiscal revenue comes from the state oil company, Petróleo Mexicano (Pemex). But that revenue is expected to decline as Pemex’s oil production dips in future years. Moreover, a reduction in fiscal dependency on Pemex would allow the oil company to direct more of its income to exploration and other much-needed investment.
South Africa: Motorists warned of fuel shortage
Motorists should not put "pressure on the pumps" ahead of Wednesday's fuel price hike as some filling stations may run dry, the SA Petroleum Retailers Association said.Spokesperson Peter Noke said Gauteng has been experiencing fuel shortages, and on Monday 23 Engen petrol stations were without fuel for the entire day.
Peru’s oil production has increased in the last two years as new projects have come online, but the country is still a net oil importer.
Turkey: Electricity producers call for a tax cut to save investments
A law approved by the Parliament in 1984 encouraged individuals and establishments to found their own electricity power plants, which operate on fuel oil. However, due to the high tax implemented on fuel oil, many of those companies currently are facing the danger of closing down.
Shell Restores Some Nigerian Oil Output
Royal Dutch Shell PLC said it has restored 150,00 barrels per day of lost oil production from its Bomu pipeline complex that has been shut-in since last Tuesday when the facility was attacked.
For months, people have complained that filling up the car is costing them an arm and a leg.American Red Cross officials believe they have a better deal: give blood for a chance to win $3,500 worth of gasoline.
Trying to counter the annual summer blood shortage, the Red Cross has decided that people might be more willing to give the "gift of life" if they got a chance to win an item some consider equally important to living.
Ethanol boom won't threaten food supply: analysts
Fears of world food shortages caused by booming use of sugar cane and corn to produce ethanol fuel for motor vehicles are overblown and politically motivated, analysts and politicians said on Monday.
Iraqi oil workers strike over proposed law
Iraqi oil workers, marginalized while a law to govern the oil is drafted and debated, are firing a warning shot by going on strike.The Iraqi Pipelines Union released a statement Monday that it shut down two 14-inch oil and gas products pipelines inside the country in protest against the law and working conditions they want changed.
More than one-third of Zimbabweans face food shortages
"While drought devastated crops in many areas, Zimbabwe's overall production was also hampered by insufficient fertilizer, fuel and tractors, and by the country's crumbling irrigation system," said Henri Josserand, Chief of FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System.
Uranium May Reach $200 in Two Years
Uranium spot prices may reach $200 a pound within the next two years, buoyed by a shortfall in supply and increasing investment in the nuclear fuel by speculators, said Macquarie Bank Ltd., Australia's biggest securities firm.
Strong Molybdenum Demand Panicking Traders
There is presently a growing panic among molybdenum traders. From our sources, it appears reduced inventories have been overpowered by rushing demand for the silvery-white ‘energy metal.' On the day before the Ryan's Notes metals conference at the New York Athletic Club on Tuesday, our sources told us moly traders are sweating, scrambling to find inventory. One told us, “$50 per pound molybdenum is a heartbeat away.” This would represent an increase of nearly 50 percent from present pricing.
TeraCloud SRM Whitepaper Examines Role of Storage in Energy Crisis
Power consumption is a critical issue in the data center, placing storage resource management (SRM) firmly in the cross-hairs of the energy crisis, according to the whitepaper "Storage in Energy Management," by TeraCloud Corporation."With forecasted growth in storage experienced by organizations approaching or in excess of 100 percent compounded annually, traditional storage solutions are not addressing the energy problem," the TeraCloud whitepaper reports. "Due to the reduced cost of storage hardware, increased storage demand has been solved predominantly through new hardware acquisition. This approach is no longer feasible with competition for floor space coupled with increased density of the devices creating more heat to be cooled."
Five Little-known Tips For Getting Better Gas Mileage
On a recent drive to work, Philip Reed was able to boost his car's gas mileage by almost 25 percent.Reed, tracking the Honda's gas efficiency with an onboard computer, credited his fuel savings to the fact that he left earlier for work, thus avoiding morning congestion and the stop-and-start traffic that wastes fuel. As consumer advice editor at Edmunds.com, the automotive information Web site, Reed knows a few fuel-efficiency tricks.
Uganda Outgrows Its Electricity Supply
Samuel Kizito gives his business a month before it goes belly-up.Uganda, once one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, is suffering through a power crisis that makes doing business here difficult, expensive, and , for Kizito, at least , not worth the trouble.
U.K.: Motoring costs rise for drivers
The AA said owners of superminis - like the Volkwagon Polo or the Fiat Punto - were the only ones to see annual costs fall in April this year, in comparison to April 2006.But the petrol price increase in May and the rise in interest rates voided the supermini saving.
Petrol's Price in Bulgaria to Increase
Increase of the petrol's price is expected at the beginning of the summer, reported Valentin Kunev, chairman of Balkan and Black sea petrol association.
Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel
The issues of climate and future temperature increases have become part of our everyday life, and central in this debate is carbon dioxide. The fossil fuels we use contain carbon and hydrocarbon compounds, and carbon dioxide is released together with energy when we burn these.However, it seems that the amounts of fossil fuels themselves are not perceived as a problem among those debating climate change. Instead, the problem is only ever that we are expected to use too much of them. The idea that the combined volumes of these fuels are insufficient to cause the changes in climate that are currently discussed is nowhere to be heard.
Peak Oil and global climate change are closely connected. After all, we wouldn't be facing global climate change if people around the world didn't use so much fossil-fuel energy. What's more, some substitutes for conventional oil, such as tar sands and coal-based diesel, generate even more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases than regular oil. Furthermore, so-called alternative energy, such as solar, wind, water or geothermal power, is not yet available in large quantities in most places. The result is a feedback loop of misfortune: More energy spent leads to more pollution, which leads to more warming, which forces us to use more energy...and so on.As financial planners, we need to help our clients address the challenges that these developments pose in both their personal and investing lives.
Worries about global warming are growing: survey
Worries about global warming have increased around the world this year and many people want more government action to slow climate change, a survey showed on Tuesday.
Bill would block states on auto rules
A dozen states would be blocked from imposing new requirements on automakers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under a draft energy bill being prepared for a vote later this month.
UK: World warmer than average in year to May
The world was slightly warmer than average in the first four months of this year, but 2007 may not turn out to be the hottest on record, Britain's official weather forecaster said on Tuesday.
Can you afford $20 per gallon?
The answer is Peak Oil. The question is what will make $3 a gallon gas seem like the good old days.
G8 summit defining moment for energy
Dust-up may be necessary to force U.S. to cut carbon emissions for global good.
Silver Set to Shine: The (Very) Long Term View
This period we are now in will have its own inflation causing events that will see silver grow and grow in price until another 1980 style crisis greets the world. Those events will be the welfare deficit crisis brought on by the mass retirals of the Baby Boomers. It will also be exacerbated by the unfolding energy supply brought on by the expanding economies of the Far East as well as Peak Oil. Finally, continuing depletion of resources and lower ore grades will be the final straw for a world already struggling to cope with one monetary woe after another.
Yes, they are at it again. Small-town socialist hucksters like James Kunstler - along with Kirkpatrick Sale and Rob Nayler - are getting loads of ink around the country with their plans to turn New Hampshire into an island of progressive socialism within a sea of dismal social engineering.Read below to see what Nayler and Sale have in mind for Vermont. Hint: It’s a kind of small-town hyper-Greenism in which everyone seemingly will ride bikes to work, light houses with corn oil, go to bed at dusk and wake at dawn to slave throughout the day on small-plot farms. Ah, the satisfaction of eking out a “bare bones” living!
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Leanan, the item about Vermont secessionists looks like
an old article. The linked page is dated Oct 3, 2006 and the
quoted item is reposted from Oct 25, 2005. Other than
that I'm guessing secession is moving forward.
Xokiawitl
Hi Leanan, thanks once again for your hard work and dedication posting Drumbeat. If you are ever near Galveston I'll buy you a seafood dinner! That includes significant other, children, ect.
The continuing interest in gold and silver baffles me. Its an asset that will be illiquid in the collapse scenario that its proponents favor, manipulated by the owners of the largest stocks-governments, cost the owner money to own-safe deposit boxes, opportunity costs, ect. I guess we hoard it from the same instinct that drives a crow to pick up something shiny. As far as I'm concerned, oil and gas is a much superior investment. Even residential real estate-you can at least live in it.
Gold and silver are investments outside of currency.
Currency based investments are fully dependent on their currency.
I don't trust any currency going forward (I'm thinking a US economic problem is a global problem, I don't think many currencies will prove stable in that environment, just my opinion).
There's also no taxes on gain from metals (it's like trading currencies basically). Traditional investments also have costs and fees, and taxes.
I employ metals as a current safety net (my liquid cash is tied up in them) and for my SHTF plan (at that point I can't say which currencies would be stable).
I'd like you to try the no taxes arguement on the IRS when they audit you and report back to us. Gold is not legal tender in the USA, and hasn't been since 1932. How are you going to buy groceries with it when TSHTF? How are you going to get change, a semi full of $20 bills? Whats to prevent the local war lord, or just any thug, from killing you for it after a very long torture session?
As I said, collecting gold is like a crow picking up a bright shiny piece of tin foil.
A small stash of pre-1965 (= pure coin silver) dimes and quarters might be prudent "just in case". Those will work to facilitate trades for food etc. in the case of hyperinflation or other economic catastrophes.
sometimes you can pick up silver dollars and half dollars at not too much of a premium over bullion. these are practically worn out, of very little value to any self respecting collector. i assume if the us experiences hyperinflation, they will still be legal tender of the liquid variety, after all they were minted by the us govt (for what that is worth).
What's to prevent him from torturing and killing you for your real estate? Your food cache? In other words, it's a purely rhetorical device that serves no purpose in this discussion.
The real value of gold and silver is after a collapse if/when some form of society begins to reassert itself. There will be a medium of exchange and if history is any guide, gold and silver may well be that medium or readily exchangeable for that medium. So no, gold and silver is not for the day after the crash. It is for the day after the day after the crash, if you follow my meaning. ;)
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Hehe...Greyzone!
My response would have been...I will be the local warlord!
;-P
Sorry, I don't have any gold for you. You'll have to accept these ephemeral computer blips in tribute:
........................ ←blips
There, that should be enough for now.
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Blips acceptable....now kneel.
;-P
I shall expect more blips tomorrow, same time, or else!
oilmanBob,
You make some valid points. Please consider that after tshtf that we may most likely trend toward a barter economy. "Buying" groceries may be a thing of the past and using a wad of US twenties may be a fair trade for a roll of toilet paper. Solid Gold or Silver, whether bullion or pre 64 dimes and quarters or Aunt Mae's table setting for 12 will still have an intrinsic appear to many.
It may be that the development of currency was an outgrowth of bartering, where the person had something to trade but I did not want what he had. If we found some mutually agreed upon token of value, such as a gold nugget, we could trade that because it was easier to carry and if I went somewhere else I could likely find someone interested in the nugget with something I wanted.
Later Governments got into the act and acted as intermediaries to "Guarantee" the purity of the nugget and to control the action.
Fair point on the warlords and thugs. Recommend considering some personal protection. Better yet, just make sure that you set yourself up as one of the warlords.
Just my '2 cents' worth
EJ
Hello EJ,
I can recommend "The History of Money" by Jack Weatherford, which traces the evolution of money as a concept from barter through commodity money, metals, the invention of coins, banknotes etc. A really interesting read.
Cheers,
xuewen
>You make some valid points. Please consider that after tshtf that we may most likely trend toward a barter economy. "Buying" groceries may be a thing of the past and using a wad of US twenties may be a fair trade for a roll of toilet paper. Solid Gold or Silver, whether bullion or pre 64 dimes and quarters or Aunt Mae's table setting for 12 will still have an intrinsic appear to many.
There is a fatal flaw with hoarding PMs for future currency use after THSHTF or even an the belief of a barter system right after the collapse.
What do you expect to buy with your PM's after the collapse? Most goods are trucked in hundreds or thousands of miles away. Manufacturing plants that crank out Toilet Paper, Toothpaste, etc, are all dependant on a oil-power transportation system to deliver vitual resources (Just in Time) and require that transportation system to deliver them to consumers. What is that you expect that you will find someone selling something that you want or need?
The difference is that in the past most goods that consumers purchased were manufactured locally or used a distribution system to get them to your area. The transportation systems of the past have mostly been dismantled and replaced with vehicles that are 100% dependant on Oil. When THSHTF, its very likely that civilian access to precious Oil and other transportation fuels will be virtually non-existant. This means the distribution system that services you today, would be non-existant in a collapse. Today few people are capable of manufacturing goods and services without advanced equipment that is dependant on reliable electricity or abundant sources of natural gas or oil. Today, Machines make the products we use, and people maintain the machines. The machines are depend on reliably power and ofter premanfactured or process materials that are produced in other factories that are hundreds or even thousands of miles away. For instance virtually all of the fertializers and pesticides used in domestic agraculture are shipped in from overseas near abundant natural gas and other fossil based feedstocks because its no longer economical to produce these products here in North America.
The first few years will be the toughest as virtually everything today is done with machinary. Its going to take a long time for people to learn how to do things the old ways since most of the people knowledgable have passed on. Its going to take even much longer before large distribution systems and manufacturing is restored back to a 19th Century level. Think about the chaos created with the fuel pumps go dry? How many farmers today own draft animals and non-oil powered harvesting equipment? How many farmers purchase seeds with the terminator gene and lack heirloom seeds? How many farmers use natual gas fired grain dryers for long term grain storage? All these factors will make it very unlikely that a barter system will appear overnight to fulfill your needs. Just look what happened to the small area near New Orleans after Katrina. Imagine there were no helicopters and no airlifts, trucks or diesel powered boats bring in supplies. Do you think you would find your PM's very useful?
In my opinion loading up on PM's instead of using time & money to become as much as self sufficient as possible is a poor choice. Remember that the richest man in a desert is a dead man without water. This would apply during a collapse. You'll hoarding a bunch of shiny pieces of metal that look pretty but contribute nothing to your future security and wealthfare in a crisis. Good luck trying to barter for food, energy or any essential resources, when all of your neighbors are struggling to just put enough food on the table to avoid starvation. They certainly are not going to barter for food if they don't have enough for themselves no matter how much PM's you offer them.
In a crash situation, it won't be gold that everyone wants, it will be hand pumps, solar stills, moonshine, and organic tobacco. Having a lot of silver won't mean anything if no-one has enough food.
Having PMs, and lacking the actual resources you need, puts the seller in control. "I want an ounce of gold for 50 lbs of flour." Your hunger will dictate the outcome of this transaction.
If you want to stash away some bullion, also stash away MREs, wood, hand-powered equipment, and weapons.
It is possible to make paper by hand. My wife does it as a craft hobby. If things really got bad, and manufactured paper were totally unavailable, you bet we could go into full-scale production to make paper for barter. I'll bet other people could make a lot of other stuff too if they really had to.
Bob,
Gold, silver, productive farmland, investment grade diamonds among many other things are all options for an individual that wants to protect themselves from inflation.
There have been many times in history when converting currency to the above listed assets has been a smart move. Weimar Germany, 1970's Argentina, 1990's USSR a few.
Gold is convertible into currency in almost every country in the world. What's to prevent a local warlord from taking anything from an indivual or his family?
Different strokes,,if it's not your thing that's cool but gold may protect an individuals savings in the future.
Who knows?
Regards,
Gunga
oilmanbob,
"Gold is not legal tender in the USA, and hasn't been since 1932."
I beg to differ with you.
There are $5 (1/10 oz), $10 (1/4oz), $25 (1/2 oz), and $50 (1 oz)
US mint legal tender (face value amounts) gold coins available (freshly minted).
With gold at $670 an oz it would not be wise to spend them. Any bank will execpt them as legal tender at the "face value" amount.
http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_coins.html
DD
I am in the anti-PM crowd unless you consider your investments in PM's to be nothing more than hedges. On the other hand, if you consider them to have value after TSHTF, I believe your plans are misplaced. Here's why:
1. PM's do not have intrinsic value in a survival situation, i.e. you can't eat them, cook with them, etc.
2. PM's can be made valuless (or of lesser value) or non-fungible by goverment decree.
3. They only have value in a SHTF situation if you can find a "seller" willing to accept them (I'll call this the greater fool theory.). Here is an example: You come to me and want to buy some food or firewood from me. You say, "Todd, I'll give you 2 ounces of gold for a cord of firewood. How does that sound?" My response is, "No, thanks. Got something I can use?" My point here is that if I accept your gold in exchange for my wood, it does not make my life easier or more porductive. Rather, I then have to find another "fool" who will accpt them in exchange for his/her goods. The PM's become absolutely valuless unless someone else will take them.
I would argue that goods for barter or personal survival offer a better "return" if TSHTF. Had you offered me a box of 12ga shotgun shells and a box of 30-30 cartridges for the wood, I'd have given your offer serious thought. Personally, you could have stocked up on storage food. Given the price increases in food generally, you'd probably get as good a return and have something you could eat if necessary.
4. Local areas might also develop their own "currencies" making PM's valuless, again. There are already many locals that have done this. They are typically based upon the hours worked or the skills required.
A fictional example of this is explored in the 1936 book, Gumption Island - a Fantasy of Coexistence by Felix Morley in which metal bottle tops, backed by the change people had, becomes the local currency.
Todd
You have a point in that. But when you have made all preps you need, and you have some savings left, what would be best; A bankaccount in fiat currencies, or gold??
I would choose gold.
I prefer shares in hydroelectric utilities and merchant power providers in several nations.
ATM, I am selling some GLHIF (US version of Great Lakes Hydro, a Canadian company) in order to buy more oil stocks (see Gonu). Hopefully buy back later.
I am keeping the rest of the hydro stocks.
Long term you own a small % of a very real energy producing asset. Political risk in every nation, so spread your bets.
Best Hopes for Renewable Power Investments,
Alan
If TSHTF all bets are off. If there are roving bands of armed gangs shooting people for loaves of bread, gold probably won't be worth much.
However, gold and silver can be used as part of a larger diversification strategy. I like Canadian dollars too.
Basically I see gold and silver (the actual metals - not some mutual fund) as a hedge against inflation, as well as a hedge against rising EROEI. The real value in the gold and silver though is that you can actually own it. How many barrels of oil are you going to store in your garage?
Guys, I'm dead in a die-off. I'm an insulin dependent diabetic and 55. And so are most of you, no matter what your preparations or health status.
I still think the most probable result of the peak is a long, serious depression with the "middle class" squeezed even more than today. So just buy a house close to your favorite fishing hole and pay off your debts. Buy some good hand tools and gardening supplies. Buy books, they are cheap used at thrift stores. Get a bicycle, or a 100mpg moped so you can commute to work. And if you have a little cash left, buy shares in an oil and gas royalty trust. They are inflation protected and provide a good rate of return.
I'm sorry to hear that oilmanbob. I have colonized MRSA so I will probably die from an infection. That doesn't change the truth. We are going to hit the fan soon. Soon there will be no work to get to. The thing people will be bartering for would probably be food. So why not get yourself the food in the first place. There is no reason not to invest in underground storage and as much food that will keep as you can get your hands on. An underground warehouse full of food would probably bring you the best return I can think of. Well concealed of course. I have also invested in antibiotics. They will lose their potency, but are better than nothing. If I were you I would be researching what can be done about insulin and making the investment instead of giving up and engaging in denial of what's coming. You do what you gotta do or you die, your choice.
Of course PMs have intrinsic value!
Not very corrosive, easily malleable, silver is an antibiotic, a good medium of exchange where there is any semblance of society, good conductors of electricity, etc...
Just because we live in a society where we've forgotten the value of almost everything doesn't mean things don't have value.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Now say you want a Duck (and who wouldn't) and somewhere west of forever there is a Man with a Duck and you would dearly love to trade your sheep for his duck but to pack a sheep about the hills west and forever on the odd chance this Man with a Duck would covet your Sheep could be a strain, so you go to the man who knows and ask, 'what oh what oh great knower'. to which he says 'so simple my son just give me your sheep for my own and special needs and I will give this yellow rock which we will call a Golden Duck-get' with which of course you will get your duck.
Simple, for the great crash...hoard gold ducats
But if you wish to buy yourself a job for after the Great Woof, a glass cutter in the back pocket would give you a cutting edge as well as great mobility when avoiding Big Bad Jack the Man with the Axe.
AMMUNITION will be a pretty good medium of exchange
.22 Long Rifle
.38 Special
.40 S&W, 9 mm pistol
12 gauge shotgun
.223 Remington
Hungarian 7.62x54R =D
Too much technology. My weapon of choice.
"All blowguns are equipped with a custom manufactured anti-inhale mouthpiece to ensure against dart inhalation while providing maximum airflow."
Thank God for that!
I wonder if you could bring down a white-tail with one of those bad boys...
My Weapon of choice.
http://world.guns.ru/shotgun/SH09-E.HTM
Bye bye woodchuck! Garden protection!
My peak oil investment with ammunition
cfm in Gray, ME
How about boxes of STAINLESS STEEL nuts, bolts, washers, and screws in standard sizes? I'm not a doomer (this oil thing will be a bad, but temporary issue, IMHO), but if I were, I could fill a closet with a thousands of boxes (or the crawl space of my house -- who would look there?).
Example: one SINGLE 2.5" Stainless Steel Hex Cap Screw sells for $0.69.
A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
I love those 5 "Little-known" tips for better MPG :). Among them are car pooling, walking and riding your bike more often.
Reminds me of the best way to lose weight and keep it off: diet and excercise.
There's a multi-billion dollar market out there for magic bullet diets and health clubs that encourage people to workout for 2-3 hours a day for the first two weeks of January. None of that works nearly as well as a *good* diet and the *right* amount of excercise for the rest of your life.
At the same time, until it's forced upon the public nobody's going to take simple, logical advice like "drive less." People hear that advice and react to it just like someone suggesting 3 trips to the buffet instead of 4 "You mean you want me to STARVE TO DEATH?!?!" :)
Tip #3 was a surprise. Who would have thought that checking a website to find the lowest-cost fuel in your area would result in better gas mileage.
On an only slightly related topic, I wonder if the new EPA mileage rating system will actually cause more fuel to be wasted:
(1) People will be less likely to upgrade to a higher MPG car since their current car (on old rating system) appears to get better mileage anyway.
(2) When people exceed the new (lower) mileage ratings they will have even less reason to drive efficiently since, clearly, they are a already doing a fine job.
Article from the Wis. State Journal about more people in Madison raising chickens in their back yard.
http://www.madison.com/wsj/mad/local/index.php?ntid=149990
Something interesting I noticed at the local supermarket, the locally grown and packaged organic corn chips are selling for less than the conventional tortilla chips at the store. Hopefully we will see more of this as oil prices increase, but I doubt it as that they were in the organic aisle far from the main aisle of potato chips.
Patrick
Shale oil a setback for "Peak Freaks"?
And if we do run out of oil, in about a hundred years, we can just ship it in from another planet!
What is really scarey about the above quote is that it comes from Phil Flynn, a person who is really supposed to know his stuff in the oil business. "Phil Flynn, Vice President, Energy and General Market Analyst with Alaron Futures and Options (www.AlaronEnergies.com), is one of the world's leading energy market analysts."
Get that? "One of the world's leading energy market analysts! And he says shale oil, deep sea drilling, the free market and oil from another planet will fix everything.
Ron Patterson
This is the most absurd thing I have read in months. It's like those 'experts' on real estate, who thought housing could only go up even if peoples salaries did not.
The guy doesn't actually believe in technology and markets, what he really believes in is magic. And he doesn't even know it.
Hurin and Ron,
I've got to disagree with your reading of that essay. The guy's language was fairly offensive, but he conceded the point that we are in a peak as far as inexpensive energy.
Most people don't give a flying f**k about the definition of crude oil. They care about total liquids going in the SUV, whether gasoline or diesel. They don't understand that shale kerogen is at least a couple of expensive steps from sweet crude going into a refinery.
My main point is this-when trying to educate someone, we should be focusing on the cost to the consumer. His cost figures were spurious, probably because he's in denial. The $30 a barrel processing estimate that he quotes is spurious. It doesn't include royalties to the host government, taxes or the original capital costs to set up the processing, which I think will be in excess of $100,000 per barrel per day of production, the figure on the Athabascan Tar Sands plants.
So let the cornucopians be right. There's going to be plenty of "oil" at $200/bbl, $10 a gallon. Only very few of us can afford it.
Yes, $10 a gallon would change uncounted millions of people's lives.
My life would be all about demand destruction if gasoline ever got anywhere near that high.
Gas is $7.42 per gallon in the Netherlands. It has been like this high for some 5 years now.
No sign of breakdown of society yet. But I'm sure it must come very quickly now.
...and that, my friends, is as close to a national energy policy as we are ever likely to get.
And I will have to disagree with you Bob, and agree with Hurin. To have been written by a man supposedly "in the know", this article is the most absurd thing I have read in months. It takes no great mind to know that the age of inexpensive energy is over but this guy is saying that Peak Oilers are "Freaks", that we are simply wrong and oil will really never get much more scarce than it is right now. In fact this guy’s religion can be summed up in one sentence of his:
Now I cannot imagine how the market will eventually solve the global warming problem. I mean you really gotta have faith to believe that. But obviously this guy is a “True Believer”. All we must do is give the free market a free hand and it will solve everything. What he fails to realize is the free market was what got us into this damn mess of peak oil and global warming and the free market will, very soon, lead us down to the end of civilization as we know it. And all the while true believers like Phil Flynn will be telling us that we are simply strolling down the primrose path to a better and more fruitful life.
Oil from other planets indeed! Geese Bob, anyone who would even suggest such a scheme has to have rocks in his head. And simply because he realizes that high oil prices are likely here to stay doesn’t make him any saner. Allow me to quote him again:
The point is Bob, it is because of stupid screwballs like this guy that people don't give a flying f**k about the definition of oil. As long as such nuts are posing as "experts in the field" and telling us this crap, no one will give a flying f**k about peak oil. After all, when the "experts" tell us that there is nothing to worry about, then why worry. Don't you realize that such people as this guy and Daniel Yergin and the rest of those screwballs at CERA are the main reason no one takes peak oil seriously?
Ron Patterson
Sadly, the oil companies are rewarded when the consumer suffers. Essentially, the system is setup to self destruct in a resource limited environment.
less oil = shortages = rationing by price = more profits for no investment
I am not saying they are deliberately shorting supply, just that they have a multi-billon dollar interest in seeing consumption stay high.
While on the other hand, what society needs to have happen is:
Efficiency investment = lower prices = more capital = more efficiency investment.
But that saved money is coming directly out of the oil company’s pocket. So they are going to fight it tooth and nail (or fight it blog and interview).
Ron;
no doubt the guy is dimwitted, abusive and has an ego larger than his brain. My point is we gain nothing argueing with him, or CERA, or any other Cornucopian. Arguing is a distraction from what should be our primary purpose, educating people so that they change their lifestyles and changing our own behavior. Investigating real solutions, getting out real news.
If you search for Hurricane Gonu, the TOD thread comes up #2 on Yahoo. Thousands of new readers are going to get exposed to what the site is really about! Thats our important business today, not arguing with a dinosaur.
I hate to agree with W. on anything, the moron, but when he called oil an addiction he was right. The coming to terms with fossil fuels has a lot of similarities with coming to terms with alcoholism and drug addiction. A drunk doesn't see alcohol as his problem, but rather the relief from his problem.
Treatment programs realised a long time ago-25 or 30 years-the relationship between giving up and addiction and the processes of grief about a person's mortality, and related it to Elizabeth Kubler-Ross's five stages of grief. And it appears to me that the people who have related giving up fossil fuel addiction to this process are right. I know, it sounded like trite b.s. to me too, but on reconsidering I think they are right. This guy is in the first stage, denial. There are others who have moved on to anger, our friend airdale being one, or the Trolls that RR can't resist arguing with. The next stage is bargaining-maybe the ethanol is the Saviour folks, or the Technological Messiah folks are there, then depression, then acceptance.
Ron, I think people like you who understand the situation have a duty to educate others. Its my duty too.
So maybe we need local discussion groups, like AA meetings, and a program to recover from this addiction.
I think it does as much good to argue with an idiot like this as to argue with a drunk or junky. Let him alone, he'll either figure it out or die stupid. We need to concentrate on people we can actually help.
>Now I cannot imagine how the market will eventually solve the global warming problem. I mean you really gotta have faith to believe that. But obviously this guy is a “True Believer”. All we must do is give the free market a free hand and it will solve everything. What he fails to realize is the free market was what got us into this damn mess of peak oil and global warming and the free market will, very soon, lead us down to the end of civilization as we know it.
I Actually agree with this assestment that the free market will solve everything. Energy will become scarce, and the price will soar (or become unaffordable or unobtainable for the majority of the public). This will lead to demand distruction. As far as global warming, and declining energy, food production will decline and the population will decline until it reaches a sustainable level.
>As long as such nuts are posing as "experts in the field" and telling us this crap, no one will give a flying f**k about peak oil.
Whats the point? I am sure your familar with the population growth hockey stick. Peak oil isnt the problem its population overshoot. No matter what actions people, gov'ts or societies pursue, there is still going to be a die off. Educating the masses does zitch in the end, so why bother or be concerned with an outcome that cannot be altered?
>Don't you realize that such people as this guy and Daniel Yergin and the rest of those screwballs at CERA are the main reason no one takes peak oil seriously?
Why are you become angry at them? I am sure we both agree that CERA and others are fully aware that Peak Oil does exist and is already happening. They have access to much more data then we do, and they have been deliberately dismissing peak oil to prevent further disruption of oversea production (aka Nationalization of foriegn energy sssests). I believe they've have come to similar conclusions that no difference can be made by informing the public, and informing them could hasten the time when the crisis begins. The metaphoric iceberg has already ripped into the side and there are no lifeboats available to save the public. Better to let the enjoy the time remaining on their trip than to tell them thier lives as they know it are suddenly coming to an end.
As long as the general public is not aware of Peak Oil and the pending crisis ahead, others and myself can go about our business making our lifeboats. As soon as the cat is out of the bag, times up! Exporter will restrict exports, economies will fail, and there is a good chance that war and chaos will spread through the globe. I hope everyday that the public is never informed about declining energy resources.
Well no, population overshoot is a symptom, not a cause. Population overshoot is what happens when any species finds itself with a temporary abundance of food.
I think there are things people can do, or groups of people can do, that will increase their chances of being among the survivors. I have other very deeply held opinions on this thread but I dare not say more right now.
WHAT? No, I do not agree with that at all. CERA, Daniel Yergin, Peter Jackson, Phil Flynn, Michael Lynch and a host of others actually believe that peak oil is decades in the future. Phil Flynn believes it is one hundred years in the future if ever. You mean you actually believe these guys are fully aware of peak oil and just lying? No, they are not lying, they are true believers. They believe the market will actually create more oil.
I think your scenario is hilarious. That is the funniest thing I have read in years. No TechGuy, they haven’t a clue about peak oil. They actually believe everything they are raving about.
Ron Patterson
That's not really a market. There is no symmetry and no willingness.
cfm in Gray, ME
i disagree with much of what you say, with the exception of the end bit:
> As long as the general public is not aware of Peak Oil
> and the pending crisis ahead, others and myself can go
> about our business making our lifeboats. As soon as the
> cat is out of the bag, times up! Exporter will restrict
> exports, economies will fail, and there is a good chance
> that war and chaos will spread through the globe. I hope
> everyday that the public is never informed about declining
> energy resources.
I heartily agree... I just don't buy mitigation... so instead I hope for a hard fast fall - but in a few years time to give me the time I need to continue to try to build the lifeboat for those I care about. (Hard fast fall more likely to preserve resources for any future second shot at civilization)
Sounds harsh but that is how I feel.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Zero is a very sustainable number.
LOL.
COL.
That's what our future world will kind of be like if we do not collectively solve the PO and GW problems. In zombie movies like Dawn of the Dead, etc. the angry zombies just keep coming and coming at you. Eventually you run out of bullets or other resources and they eat you alive. How are you going to sustain your lifeboat against gun toting gangs of hungry migrants? Sooner or later they will smell out your lifeboat encampment and come for what you got & what they want.
“Get that? "One of the world's leading energy market analysts!”
Sounds rather like Mr. Flynn is just a luckier --up to now— futures/options chartist who plays the energies.
"Chart Freaks"
There are hydrocarbons on Saturn's moon Titan. Great EROEI, that.
Well, there's always Space solar power.
Surely the free market will provide for the technological and economic impetus needed to provide us with limitless energy from the sun.
Remember 50 years ago when they predicted we'd all have personal robot servants. The nay sayers pooh poohed this idea, but the free market hath provided the Roomba.
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
"Surely the free market will provide for the technological and economic impetus needed to provide us with limitless energy from the sun."
This is a religious belief like any other.
That was sarcasm, but if I have to explain it to you...
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
Since you use the Vonnegut quote, I have to assume (since I can't remember your take on this) that you are being sarcastic with the Market>Roomba comment.
No doubt we'll see a few more mechanical doodads that perform obeisant tasks and remind us of what Robots 'were supposed to be'. Of course almost every industrial assembly process today uses 'Robotics' by the most basic definitions, and this was certainly brought about with 'the market'.. but of course this whole paradigm of hyper-manufacturing barely-necessary product lines is in itself more a product of surplus available energy than it is the magic of Market Economics. I wonder how twisted our understanding of what an economy is, driven as it has been by such prodigious volumes of energy. Energy has made economies look miraculous, technology look miraculous, leaders look miraculous. It will certainly be interesting to see what the world looks like again without the shiny plastic wrapping on everything.
The more interesting part of 'Domestic Robots' for me is the idea that this seems to be the expression that we still want Slaves. They understand our commands, but are obliged (by programming.. once again) to be compliant and obediant. Thinking doesn't necessarily extend to 'Free Thinking'..
'Everybody ought to have a Maid..'
Steven Sondheim
Bob Fiske
"All I need is a reindeer, and the Grinch looked around;
But since reindeer were scarce there were none to be found.
Did that stop the old Grinch? NO! The Grinch simply said,
If I can't FIND a reindeer, I'll MAKE one, instead!"
Phil Flynn has apparently figured out what many before him have figured out. In "The Age of Polarization and Disinformation" you don't have to be right to make a fast buck. You just have to offer an alternative.
Here's an example: Today you read that eating beef will make your arteries turn to stone. Being a big fan of hamburgers, this concerns you. You hardly sleep at all that night. BUT -- the next day, you go to your local bookstore and "Voila!" there is a book on the shelf entitled "Eating Red Meat is Good for your Arteries!" Instantly you feel vindicated. You just knew that eating hamburgers couldn't be bad for you, so you buy it and "BINGO!" the author is $5 richer.
Is the book correct? Who cares? All that matters is that (1) you feel like you stuck your finger in the eye of someone who was telling you that you were screwing up and 2) the author made some money.
See, nothing to worry about here.
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
phil flynn apparently hasnt heard about abiotic baked potatos !
GM CEO: "Alternatives to gas needed"
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/05/news/companies/gm_annual_meeting/index.h...
How about alternatives to cars needed?
There is always the bicycle. But I *really* don't want to see GM trying to horn into that market though.
Someone with some decent CAD tools ought to be able to come up with a drawing/picture of what a GM manufactured bicycle would look like - it wouldn't be pretty :-).
____________________
MySpace.com/ziontherapy
Makes me think of another well-known image.
i remember seeing that before. i think it was just a concept race bike.
personally i am looking at this bike here.
http://powersports.honda.com/assets/images/model/c028_029_030_031_photos...
That tagline for Dodge - "Grab life by the horns", reminded me of this:
Be careful what you ask for, I guess :-).
How about alternatives to dick head GM CEO needed? This dud is a total disaster and a disgrace. Gotta keep that world wide auto industry going at any cost. But I guess it is too much to expect a GM CEO to think outside the auto box. So someone else will have to do that for him.
If GM has a long-term strategy -- and you have to wonder if they do -- I think it's "Crash and Burn." They are simply saddled with too many legacy costs. I don't see how their North American operations could ever return to profitability without going through a lot of "skin shedding" (bankruptcy). Once that has occurred -- and the bulk of their worker-related costs are written off or dumped onto the taxpayers -- they might return to profitability but they'll still have to compete with the Japanese. Now that the Japanese have demonstrated their interest in the full-sized truck/SUV market, I'm not sure what that leaves for General Motors.
The fact that they are "DiTech" has already signed their death warrant. I guess it should have been called "Die-Tech"
Specifically, an alternative that doesn't involve any significant changes to the cars. If only someone would somehow invent some magical way to make vast quantities ethanol at very, very low cost with no polution, then Detroit would be set. They already know how to burn E85, that's easy enough. That seems to be the plan, hope someone figures out how to convert the nation's supply of junk mail into two billion liters of ethanol per day at no cost, or something like that.
Beige, I think the problem is that the American auto-industry isn't just dependent upon gasoline (or gasohol) -- that's likely to be around for some time -- it is dependent upon cheap gasoline. You don't move 3 tons of Detroit Iron with hamster cages and rubber bands and therein lies the rub.
The US auto industry got a clear signal 35 years ago that change was coming. They chose to ignore it. In the meantime, the Asian car makers learned to make and market products that competed at every level with the Big Three, and then some.
The next phenomenon in the auto industry is going to be the "ultra low cost car." Both Nissan/Renault and Toyota have announced plans to build a cheap, economical "car for the masses." The Big Three just can't operate on a thin profit margin and so, will be cut out of this entirely.
But I like your idea for dealing with 3rd class mail...
Just have the postal service make a typo that resets the postage to $0.0041 and we'll have an infinite supply of the stuff.
(Disclaimer: This is not a totally original thought, some 35 years ago I read a story that was based upon the premise of the US being suddenly burried in a substance called "FREE!", followed thousands of years later by an archaeological dig, but don't remember who wrote it or where it was.)
MEES released their OPEC crude production estimate today for the month of April. KSA is flat at 8.5 mbpd for the third straight month (have they stopped their slide?), Iraq is up slightly at 2.04 mbpd, an increase of .04. It appears that the surge is running out of steam.
I found the article about OPEC 'needing' to increase production in the coming quarters pretty hilarious. It should read EIA says we need OPEC to increase production, but that's too close to the bone. OPEC doesn't have the problem; we do. Incredible arrogance. Not to mention that it may not be possible to do so, but that's just over the top....
The article posted above Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel is by Kjell Anklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (the original European version, not the US version).
I don't like to see Dr. Anklett making statements like this for two reasons:
1. I seriously doubt the conclusion as stated in the title of the article is true. We seem to be seeing very rapid global warming now, faster than the models predict. Even if the IPCC models assume too much fossil fuel use, it does not necessarily mean that severe climate change is unlikely. It may just mean that their models are not very good.
2. Peak oil people should not be in a role of undermining climate change people's efforts. We clearly have enough of our own work to do. If we make statements questioning global warming, it will just add to Bush and company's go slow efforts.
I also think Anklett is wrong. ASPO says gas + oil will be down 37% by 2050 (less than 1%/year fixed). Coal will be at about the same level in 2050 (having peaked in the meantime). But Al Gore, Monbiot etc are calling for a much larger reduction in fossil fuel, consumption, ie 2+% per year. I don't get Anklett's thinking.
Suffice it to say that publishing this report makes Professor Aleklett himself utterly irrelevant, as well as anything he will write and say in the future. What may be more important is that in one grandiose move he does untold damage to everyone associated with ASPO, anywhere in the world.
Energy Bulletin carried a similar Aleklett piece 2 weeks ago.
And yes, one has to wonder about his motivations. Is plain stupidity a sufficient explanation?
We are going to witness a race between peak oil and global warming.
Let's look at some calculations climatologist James Hansen has done:
(1) JAMES HANSEN: .........if we look at the history of the Earth, we know that at the warmest interglacial periods, which were probably less than 1 degree Celsius warmer than today, it was still basically the same planet. Sea level was perhaps a few metres higher......we now have that calibrated quite well, both in terms of how fast the Earth is now warming, which is about two-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade, and the climate models reproduce that, and the climate models can also reproduce the magnitude of the climate change from glacial to interglacial periods. So we're pretty confident of climate sensitivity, and what that sensitivity tells us is that if we want to keep warming less than one degree Celsius additional above that of today, we had better keep CO2 less than 450 parts per million, and perhaps even less than that. So we're really getting close to the tipping point, because CO2 is now 380 parts per million. It started out, 100 years ago, at 280, it's now 380 and it's going up 2 PPM per year. So if we stay on as business as usual, within about 30 years we will be past this level that, I think, is a very dangerous level.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1870955.htm
(2) And in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0hHlxaYNb0
"We had in the last 30 years 1 degree F (= 0.5 degrees C) warming but there is another 1 degree F that's in the pipeline due to gases already in the atmosphere just because it takes the climate system time to respond to the changes in the atmosphere. And there is another 1 F in the pipeline because of energy infrastructure which is in place for example power plants and vehicles which we are not going to take off the road even if we decide that we have to address this problem...you have to gradually make changes....."
(3) " We conclude that the "dangerous" level of atmospheric CO2 is at most 450 ppm, likely less than that, perhaps substantially less."
Press release for http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf
When you take this together you get:
(A) We have to stay well below 1 degree further warming, say 0.8 degrees (threshold for ice sheet disintegration, but this could be lower)
(B) 0.5 degrees committed from past emissions; will take 25 years - may be even less if absorption capacity of ocean drops
(C) That is we may burn remaining oil, gas and (unsequestered) coal equivalent to just 0.3 degrees warming which will only take 10 years if warming accelerates
In one of the graphs from:
http://arxiv.org/abs/0704.2782
Hansen takes the EIA peak in 2016 ("geometric" scenario) which would be within Kjell's 2008 and 2018 peak range. But we still have to phase out coal by 2050 which is below the physically available coal production curve. In the Australian State of New South Wales, for example, this would require EVERY 2nd YEAR to decommission a 600 MW block (of a total of 12,500 MW over 40 years) and replace it with clean(er) energy.
There is absolutely no room for calling off the alarm, especially since our current set of politicians do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what they actually would have to do.
My main worry remains: that peak oil will damage our economy to such an extent that we can't get rid of those coal fired power plants.
Hi Gail, JN, Matt, He and Prisoner,
Thanks for your comments.
I'm wondering - did anyone write directly to Aleklett with his/her/their/our concerns?
Or, perhaps post or comment on the ASPO website?
Did US ASPO respond? (Dave?)
Re: Gail's point 2: This seems to be a matter of integrity and trust. If Aleklett has a concern, how can he address it in a way that respects "the process"?
I.e., it seems the issue is not questioning global warming per se, it's how one goes about it.
Where is the forum for reply and response to Aleklett, in other words?
Do you see him as not taking a valid approach with his point, then?
What should he have done, and what should he do now in order to correct this?
Also on the subject of climate change, NASA released this image showing that portions of Antarctica as much as 500 miles inland thawed and refroze in 2005.
The image and NASA's discussion can be found here.
Gail,
If it thawed and refroze does this mean that the temperature of the atmosphere caused it. If so what was the mechanism for air temp ABOVE FREEZING for a prolonged period of time to have been in such locations. What is the normal air temp of those regions.
I don't have the link at my finger temps but a recent discovery found that there is a huge mt. range under parts of Antarctica. Wonder if there could be some volcano's in that range.
You make many assumptions to make the leap that air temp is the sole reason. That the air temp rose above freezing in those areas and it was global warming, and it affected only limited area's.
As to people making bad decisions to not support your viewpoints that you assume are entirely correct is the height of self righteousness. You assume you are entirely correct and I seem to read that you feel EVEN if you are not that its okay to use a lie to support you agenda because you feel the agenda is more important than the truth.
Bring on the Global warming inquisitioners, kneel before your climate masters we shall tell you the truth, even if its false, because we know best.
baloney.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
On the idea of locking of atmospheric CO2 as Terra Perta
Via Tom Miles
When you do your personal calculations you'll find anything from 8-15 tpy CO2 emissions, at 0.3 tC/tCO2 (~3.33 tCO2/tC) that's 2.4-6 tpy. That was the purpose of my calculation of the area required for applying carbon. At 5-10 t/ha (2-4 t/a) that's about 1 acre (4 tC) per person per year.
http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/carbondioxide
It makes sense to invest in carbon sequestration through productive agriculture at the rate of 1 acre (4t) per person/year. At a US population of 302,011,659 (at 18:52 GMT (EST+5) Jun 05, 2007) that's 302 million acres per year or about 1.2 billion tons of charcoal per year. At 25% net yield of charcoal that's 4.8 million tons of biomass or more than 4 times what the USDOE says we have available for energy.
Eric,
Thanks a lot for the link! It a site I was unaware of. All the TOD terra preta nuts should check it out.
Todd
I don't think those tonnages are achievable without a surge (that word again) of burning everything in sight. When farmland is blanketed in charcoal then what...the semidesert?
I'll bookmark the link.
1) Burning everything in sight - I wonder what the air pollution level would be?
2) Semi desert. What will be the status of the old 'dust bowl' once the fossil water is no longer used for watering the plants?
Interestingly, work in the Sahara claims desert can be undone if one plants trees like Japhorta. Somehow I doubt the 'turn the corn fields to, say, nut trees, will happen. The land will dust bowl before the owners would "take the income hit" of going to trees.
That's only an issue if you're trying to keep up with the current rate of fossil emissions. If you use atmospheric CO2 removal in addition to slashing fossil emissions, you can get by with a lot less biomass. Even so, my 1.7 billion ton biomass estimate would only contain about 760 million tons of carbon.
You've also got your CO2 equivalence figure wrong. It's 3.67 T(CO2)/T(carbon), not 3.33.
Tilting at windmills Cape elites’ fave sport
I see that Sen. Kennedy has his priorities straight:
http://thetrack.bostonherald.com/moreTrack/view.bg?articleid=1002846&for...
Then put nukes in their backyards instead. (Generators, that is, not bombs.) That only seems a fair trade.
Actually not a bad idea.
Construct several on island radiation shelters that people can evacuate to in case on a TMI like incident (likely never used, could be used as community centers, libraries, clinics in every day use) . Build, say, four 1.3 GW to 1.7 GW modern nukes and one or two CANDU nukes to burn up the waste fuel a bit more.
Close enough for HV AC lines to Boston and Rhode Island and perhaps HV DC down to Long Island.
Enough room and infrastructure to support a construction village for 15 or 20 years, and operators and maintenance after that.
Stop the use of oil for power generation on the island :-)
And give the island a solid economic base post-Peak Oil.
Best Hopes for finding a productive use for Martha's Vineyard,
Alan
The Dynalifter® “Roadless Trucking” system has transport costs and speeds comparable to trucking without the need of building a sophisticated highway network. It has the ability to fly on low amounts of power at low speeds, much like airships, but without the operational drawbacks of a traditional airship.
http://www.dynalifter.com/
Move people & freight without road or rail.
Hindenburg Haulers
Fourth man arrested in JFK terror plot
When I first read that headline, I thought "wow, 45 years sure is a long time..."
I have been cutting and pasting a little too much today.
Look at the bright side: we established a link between Latin America and terrorism, Al Qaeda even.
They've been talking that one up for a while.
Other links:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1263555/posts
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/000903.php
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/4209.asp
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/813031/posts
The MFs are everywhere, Fly.
And between this and the foiled Saudi plots earlier this spring, they have sucessfully seeded the American mind with the concept of 'Terrorists' disrupting our fuel/oil supplies.
We will not be surprised when our supply gets 'disrupted' now, just angry.
Bit of a breakthrough here last night in NZealand. David Strahan's book 'The Last Oil Shock' was reviewed live on Campbell Live on Channel 3 at 7pm on the evening with an extensive interview with the author. The host Campbell was very receptive to the authors take on PO, and he didnt hold back in his live interview from London. Its great when this sort of thing happens, you dont feel as though you are just banging a lonely drum........
Damn - missed it.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Just read the article on the supposed Venezuela oil collapse. The guy wonders why the topic isn't in everyone's discussion. I submit that is because there is in fact no collapse. There was a projection a few years ago according to which there should be an increase to be carried out by 2009. The plan was judged "realistic" by people perhaps wishing it would come about. The author notes that current production is far behind this scheme (3 plus, instead of 4.5 Mb/day). But he does not give actual figures for the years between the conception of the plan and now. Perhaps the 4.5 figure itself was very optimistic, and Venezuela production is neither in strong expansion nor in collapse. My next question, given the professional credentials of the author (>20 years in the business), would be what his relation to the previous regime was, and where was he and who was he talking to when elements of the previous regime attempted their Coup d'Etat a few years ago.
I don't claim Chavez to be the most prudent of leaders, and he probably has no more clue than GW Bush about oil, but he is not as bad as his (very jealous) detractors say he is.
I couldn't find the article you are talking about. ?? Is it above somewhere or in with something else??
Sorry about that... it's from yesterdays Drum Beat:
The collapse of Chavez’s Petroleos de Venezuela
This block is what Leanan also quoted.
Chavez is aware of peak oil (whether fully I know not)-- he's made speeches about it. In any case, it is not in the interest of ANY oil producing country to produce to the max, whether able to or not. Oil worth more tomorrow than today wants to stay in the ground -- unless there is an oil addict pointing a gun at your head saying "give it to me now, and hurry up".
This is the corollary to potential production gluts in which the temptation is to produce as much as possible before the price collapses. The twin demons of resource nationalism and populism are certainly what makes Chaveez a hero at home and a dangerous despotic communist or whatever to those who would like to call his tune.
It is rather pathetic to watch the tawdry display of one sided bunkum that is reverberated by those who would rather see the place pumped dry as quickly as possible. How that would serve the long term interests of the US is pretty hard to square. Actually, what Chavez is doing leaves it in the ground and promotes conservation in the marketplace; he's doing us a favor and we don't seem to realize it. It's perfectly safe underground after all.
I guess we have to 'sulfur' a little more before we collectively get it.
I really like ole "Chuckles" Chavez. Don't forget his anti US Government rant started after the CIA flubbed the coup attempt against him. The nationalisation rag that they use against him started when he wanted to raise royalty rates on the heavy oil from 1% to 16.666%. I pay 8% in sales taxes, just to get that in perspective.
Yeah, he grandstands and makes a lot of noise. But he's sure a lot more fun than Dick Cheney!
But he's sure a lot more fun than Dick Cheney!
Don't be hat'n the VP! He's SO good he can shoot a lawyer, and the lawyer apologies for getting in the way of the buckshot!
A power us mere mortals lack!
Oil won't be worth much if large parts of the world economy collapse due to energy prices, or if e.g. PHEV's and/or algal biofuels make non-petroleum energy a cheaper option for the current oil consumer. If the latter trend gets going, it's curtains for oil producers because oil is only going to get more expensive to extract, while battery and biofuel technology is steadily getting cheaper and better. The oil producers need to sell their inventory before it stops being worth pulling out of the ground, and they don't have decades before that happens.
Why no one's making more gas
We read energy stuff while not doing a genocide criminal complaint affidavit
Cheers
OIL, OIL, OIL - the last few days have had some critical news which reinforces some of the assumptions and conclusions made on this forum.
June 2nd - Iran sees higher oil price, warns on supply
This pretty much is a confirmation that KSA is dead in the water and sinking fast, since we already knew no other OPEC member had any tangible excess capacity.
June 5th -
OPEC needs to boost 2nd-half output: EIA
So, if they won't increase until at least September, then write off September and October. See Ace's projections below....ouch.
Upside...nice sense of humor. Just a warning to the short sellers out there. BMO, you paying attention.
All this seems to support our conclusions about KSA in decline, and Ace's bottom up model which forecasts:
Two OIL shocks (plateau demand shocks) in the next 12 months, and declining production going forward from there.
Here is Ace's latest world production update (May 30) -
Updated World Production Forecasts including UK Oil Production Decline
"The world will USE less oil" whether they like it or not, and just like KSA production decline - not voluntarily.
Ace promised an update after this week's EIA International Petroleum Monthly(not out as of this post)
GONU is just another aggravating factor but also a distraction from the train bearing down on us.
Tommorow we have the weekly EIA stock reports with hopefully updates from Robert's(RR) This Week In Petroleum and FTX's chart on Gasoline stocks.
I do not believe the U.S. should grant Saudi Arabia unlimited trust. They sell their oil to the highest bidder and although they were self-sufficient in grain; they are now dependent on grain imports.
The Ethanol Trap
The Washington Post: "If every one of the 70 million acres on which corn was grown in 2006 was used for ethanol, the amount produced would displace only 12 percent of the U.S. gasoline market."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/23/AR200703...
1/6 of the nation's grain supply was used to create 3% of the nations vehicle fuel.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update60.htm
The 2006 world grain harvest was 1984 million tons.
The US wheat and corn harvest was 319 million tons in 2003.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_the_United_States
Ethanol might prove to be a deadlier addiction than gasoline.