From financialsense

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/lalani/2007/0531.html

.............

But this reality has not sunk in with the public. It is quite possible that if Gas Pains increase we will see Big Oil CEO’s dragged into the senate to answer the same inane questions.

One can only hope it will play out as it did in “A Few Good Men”
We start with Lt. Kaffee interviewing Rex Tillerson on why he has not built new refineries.

Kaffee: Just one more question. If you plan to increase capacity to 5 million barrels per day and Exxon always executes on time then why aren’t you building any new refineries? Mr. Tillerson? You stopped building refineries because you knew there is not going to be enough oil to run through them didn’t you? You saw your own discoveries and that of other companies, you saw that accelerating treadmill you were climbing just to stay in place and you knew we were in deep trouble. Fearing windfall taxes from hell and nationalization everywhere you spun this yarn that peak oil will arrive after 100 years. Mr. Tillerson are we at Peak oil?

Mr. Tillerson: You want answers?

Kaffee: I think I'm entitled to them.

Mr. Tillerson: You want answers?

Kaffee: I want the truth!

Mr. Tillerson: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world of petroleum products and those products have to be produced in increasing amounts to keep our economy alive. What are you gonna do it with? Corn ethanol? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom as the acknowledgement of peak oil will itself have grave consequences for the world economy. You weep at the gas prices and you curse the Oil Companies. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that gas prices though higher than before are still cheap. And Exxon’s existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, produces 4 million barrels of oil a day for you NASCAR morons. You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me producing all I can. You need me producing all I can so that your American Idol obsessed culture can be spared the truth for as long as possible.

We use words like oil, rigs, refinery...we use these words as the backbone to the American life you have got used to living. You use 'em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who consumes petroleum products 24/7 and uses those very products to protest against oil companies! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a shovel, dig yourself an oil well and build a refinery in your bathtub. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

Kaffee: Are we past peak oil?

Mr. Tillerson: I am doing the job you want me to!

Kaffee: Are we past peak oil?

Mr. Tillerson: You're goddamn right we are!

An article on the importance of imports from the Houston Chronicle:

Reliance on foreign gasoline is growing

After drivers used more gasoline than expected this spring, U.S. refineries, crippled by a spate of outages, could only do so much to boost output. And when oil companies searched for imports to fill the gap, they came up short. The foreign gasoline was heading to other countries that had problems.

That pushed U.S. prices higher.

"Actually, there wasn't enough gasoline to supply the world demand," said Doug MacIntyre, an Energy Information Administration analyst.

They do go on to point out, though, that everything is going to be OK and we will all live happily ever after.

The Society of Petroleum Engineers have just published the online version of their June 2007 Journal of Petroleum Technology, which is distributed to their 73,000 members and throughout the world's oil and gas industry. They have included four responses to CERA's February anti-peak oil editorial. A very brief summary of a paper I wrote with support from Chris Skrebowski is one of those:

http://www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/jpt/2007/06/DissReply.htm

Our full length original article is available here:
http://www.philhart.com/files/aspo/PhilHart_PeakOil_Detailed_Transparent...

The SPE also gave Peter Jackson from CERA a right of reply. Well worth a read.. Enjoy!

cheers
Phil.

Cordier thinks prices could climb another 20 cents to 30 cents a gallon if gasoline inventories don't increase significantly, and soon.

I am going to cover this in next week's TWIP report (which PG has asked that I start posting here as well). Those who point to increasing inventories and suggest that we are out of the woods are ignoring what historically happens starting in July. Well, actually starting in June, demand picks up and the inventory build ceases. Then, starting in July inventories are pulled down by 15 million barrels. But we don't have 15 million barrels available to be pulled down. That's why many don't think the price has peaked. Throw a hurricane in there, and you know what's going to happen.

Many may be surprised at what happens with gasoline this summer, because they don't realize what a fine line we are walking at the moment. But readers of TOD won't be caught by surprise. Well, Benjamin Cole will. The rest of you won't.

Oh great. Bush wants to discuss the global warming problem for the rest of his presidency and then come up with aspirational goals but no mandates and no way to reach those goals other than a wing and a prayer.

Why Europeans have any more patience with this feckless moron is beyond me. He should be placed at the kiddies' table at the next G8 meeting. It is time that Europe issue trade sanctions against the U.S. unless it signs up for both short and long term mandatory targets which have policies in place to reach those targets.

Technology is part of the solution but the technology won't magically arrive unless their are incentives in place to implement that technology.

The recent price runups in gas prices has shown that even fairly significant increases are not enough to change Americans' travel plans. And now prices are headed back down. This is no way to deal with peak oil or global warming.

Boy, think how fast these last ten years flew by, especially for those of us who are getting along in age. Good luck to those of you who are going to be around in, say, 2050.

Re: victory gardens

If you consume 2500Cal (food measurement equal to ~4100 Kilojoules) over a 24 hour period you are the equivalent of a 120W light bulb.

If you live in a place where your food transport cost 10 times the caloric value of the food you consume to get to your plate, all of a sudden we need 1320 available watts per person per day to survive.

If one increases their caloric consumption by 500Cal a day to work on a smaller farm which can supply anything greater than 50Cal a day you break even in terms of net energy. (500Cal would be medium work for an hour a day, and 50Cal a day breakeven is quite small, thats 12.5 grams of potatoes eaten a day.)

Im pretty sure even crappy farmers can grow enough root veggies for 12.5 grams of consumption a day!

edit: breakeven would be with 125 grams of carbs. 12.5 would represent a difference in food calories and transporation calories of >500. 125 grams means you need about a kilo a week of extra food, which is 52 kg of potatoes or other root veggies a year for consumption. My family has a plot about 4x7 meters and we manage to grow ~10-20 kg of root veggies typically working 10 mins a day with weeding.

Big, Gritty Chongqing, City of 12 Million, Is China’s Model for Future

Now, there's a great model.

I have friends (Americans) in Shanghai who have moved to the suburbs because they couldn't take the pollution anymore.

The latest blogger conference call transcript with the API has been posted:

Blogger Conference Call on Hurricane Preparedness

I was not able to make this one, but Alan Drake and Chris Miller (dryki) were there. They asked a lot of questions. The audio is also available from this one:

http://energytomorrow.org/media_center/events.html

So I finally added to my blog yesterday... first time in 4 months! Basically a ripoff of westexas' ELP model, but its what I usually throw around when people ask me WTF they should do about PO. It seems to alleviate some of the anxiety/depression that comes with learning about PO.

http://spudw.blogspot.com/

Questions: We have talked about MOL for gasoline, but is there a MOL for crude? Also, is there any data showing evidence that world crude inventories are being drawn down to satisfy the demand thats not being met by daily production?

Appreciate any feedback. Thanks

Regarding the John Edwards in San Jose story

Brandon Li, 18, said. "It's hard for teenagers to get enough money to put in their cars."

This is why it will take physical shortages to create real demand destruction... because teenagers (and everyone else) think they are entitled to the use of hydrocarbons just for farting around and cruising purposes.

The only time people will give up their cars is when the vehicles are dead in the driveway or dead by the side of the road.

Regarding ExxonMobil "No More gushers" story in Time:

Sheer numbers of wells drilled is a poor measure of how active you are in oil exploration. The use of 3D seismic has dramatically reduced the need for wildcat wells and statistical drilling. This technology came on-board in a big way in the late 1980s and 1990s, so to compare number of wells drilled between 1981 and now is really idiotic.

Also, directional & horizontal drilling have reduced the need to drill as many holes. You can hit multiple objectives on the way down, instead of drilling a seperate hole for each one as in the past.

From Leanan's lead article here,

African oil is cheaper, safer and more accessible, and there seems to be more of it every day ... No one really knows just how much oil might be there, since no one's ever really bothered to check."

Africa's Oil Dreams

Timing is everything:

Yesterday, 3 things happened:
* The White House presented its climate (non-) plan
* NASA director Griffin did this crazy interview
* NASA chief climate expert James Hansen published new climate warnings

Guess what's all over the media? Mission accomplished.

And Hansen has a nice, diplomatic, way of saying Griffin's remarks were no coincidence.

NASA climate scientist 'shocked' by Griffin
_{Global warming remarks also have the White House trying to distance itself from official}

NASA's chief climate scientist joined policymakers from outside the space agency on Thursday in criticizing agency Administrator Michael Griffin's doubt about whether mankind should address global warming.

"I was shocked by his comments," said James Hansen, who shapes NASA's climate research as the head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "It was a remarkable statement. I don't know if it was planned, or it just slipped out of his mouth."

Even the White House, which has been accused of ignoring a looming global crisis over a rise in temperatures linked to industrial activities, sought to distance itself from remarks made by Griffin in an interview that aired Thursday on National Public Radio's morning show.

The interview was broadcast on the same day the White House unveiled its proposal to limit the production of greenhouse gases by 15 industrialized nations, including the U.S.

"I have no doubt that global — that a trend of global warming exists," Griffin told NPR in the taped interview. "I'm not sure it's fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with."

Griffin, who is spearheading a White House initiative to return human explorers to the moon, initially characterized NASA's role in the global warming debate as limited to monitoring changes in the environment with satellites and turning the data over to Congress and other policymakers for action. Then, he elaborated.

"First of all, I don't think it's within the power of human beings to assure that the climate does not change, as millions of years of history have shown," he said.

"And second of all, I guess I would ask which human beings, where and when, are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now, is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that's a rather arrogant position for people to take."

Hansen, who has charged that the Bush administration tried to tone down his views on global warning, suggested that the trend is bringing the potential for disaster.

Hansen and a team of researchers, many from NASA, published their warnings Thursday in the science journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Dear doomers, petro-pessimists, Chicken Littles, men and maidens of melancholy: cheer up! Immense effort has been spent by the likes of SS, EM and others of their ilk in linearzing this and that, modeling that and this, poring over arid arcana, crunching squishy numbers and grinding out greasy graphs. But they have missed what is right under their noses. The problem, and therefore the solution, lies in pure mathematics, not in the dirty digitry of petroleoum soaked calculation.

In particular I refer to those two numbers well known to all who are intimate with the lofty peaks of abstraction attained by the queen of the sciences: pi and e. As is well known, all else can be deduced from these two numbers alone -- including one's birthday. (My freshman mathematics teacher, Ms. Thwackum, was ill-advised to attempt the calculation of the date her own demise -- bless her soul.)

Why do we consume too much oil? Because pi is too low! Think about it. All but the innumerate will immediately perceive that were pi twice as large, each rotation of the wheel would get us twice as far -- we would get twice the mileage on our SUVs. Needless to say, this would also apply to electric razors.

Why is population growth a problem? Because e is too high. Were e lower, exponential (and possibly other) explosions would be a thing of the past. Population growth would slow. If the present population is unsustainable, simply put e < 1, at least til the end of the century.

I therefore, with all the humility possible for one who has fathered such an insight, submit that the crunchers here at TOD redirect their efforts toward figuring out the values that these two numbers should be set at to get us safely through the 21st century.

This first. After recuperating they, should they choose, might do some of the tiresome but eventually needed theoretical work needed to get the old and outdated series for these two constants to converge to the newly assigned and necessary values and persuade the mathematical nitpickers to silence themselves and stop niggling over nuances of convergence and other trivia.

Archimedes said, Eureka. I simply say, Voila.

An interesting story, linked at Urban Survival:

http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=42356

No jobs for US citizens without Homeland Security approval
Submitted by Canada IFP on Sat, 2007-05-26 18:00.Americas | United States | News

US citizens who apply for a job will need prior approval from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under the terms immigration bill passed by the Senate this week.

American Civil Liberties Union pointed out that the DHS's Employment Eligibility Verification System (EEVS) is error plagued and if the department makes a mistake in determining work eligibility, there will be virtually no way to challenge the error or recover lost wages due to the bill’s prohibitions on judicial review.

Even current employees will need to obtain eligibility approval from the DHS Within 60 days of the Immigration Reform Act of 2006 becoming law.

"EEVS would be a financial and bureaucratic nightmare for both businesses and workers," said Timothy Sparapani, ACLU Legislative Counsel. "Under this already flawed program no one would be able to work in the U.S. without DHS approval - creating a ‘No Work List’ similar to the government’s ‘No Fly List.’ We need immigration reform, but not at this cost."

A rare example of an encouraging article on Global Warming:

A UCLA prof has proposed a way to eject CO2 ions into space. Briefly, since ions follow magnetic field lines, this means they go up and out at the Poles. CO2 is apparently much more likely than other molecules to combine with free electrons to form ions. His proposal is to 1) zap dust particles with giant lasers (creating more free electrons, which increase # of CO2 ions), and then give them a bit of a push with large RF transmitters tuned to the resonant frequency (around the field lines) of CO2 ions. (That should nudge them high enough so that incoming particles from the solar wind will give them more of a push.)

http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9253976

This article is vague on detail, but it claims his calculations show a few dozen megawatts of power could "make a dent" in the total amount of atmospheric CO2, (expelling far more CO2 than was produced to power the lasers and radio transmitters).

One part I must admit I didn't follow was the energy transfer to CO2 ions. I understand that tuned RF will impart energy to ions, but its not clear to me why this becomes translational motion upwards (as opposed to, say, heat). It can't be momentum transfer because the incoming solar wind apparently has the same affect?

Anyway, I know a sizeable portion of the readership is going to have techno-fix!!! No silver-bullet!!! klaxons going off, but I did find this quite interesting. If I had the authority, I'd happily fund quite a bit more research into this. A fascinating way to harvest the energy of the solar wind.

Another Inconvenient Truth!
by Puru Saxena

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7673.htm

THE BIG PICTURE - Let's face it, our planet is facing an energy crisis. If nothing is done to reduce our dependence on crude oil and if the human race is unable to find a viable alternative source of energy, the 1970's oil-shocks will look like a picnic! Most people remain oblivious to the fact that the supply of oil is struggling to keep up with rising global demand. And when you factor in the reality that over 60% of the world's top oil-producing nations are already past their peak output, the picture starts to cause some alarm. Now, I am not saying that our world is going to run out of oil tomorrow. Far from it! However, the rate at which we pump this stuff out from the ground is likely to enter an irreversible decline.

Here is a good bee roundup. Don't worry, Bee happy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/31/AR200705...

Mose in Midland

Anyone interested in a friendly game of chicken?

China's Olympian stock-market sprint

Current thinking is that Chinese markets will rally at a furious pace through the 2008 Summer Olympics -- and then investors should take the money and run.

....even though everyone knows this speculative bubble isn't sustainable, it's smart to keep pouring money into Chinese stocks -- no matter their price -- because the government won't intervene and risk crashing the market until after the showcase Beijing Olympics are over....

At best, the effect of all of this will be a gradual slowing of the gains on the Shanghai exchange early in 2008 as investors move to the sidelines in an orderly fashion in anticipation of the post-Olympics changes. At worst, we'll see a mad rush for an exit at a completely unpredictable point in time ahead of the games as some rumor panics investors into selling all at once. Remember, Chinese investors expect Beijing to act. They're already trying to time their exit.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/ChinasOlymp...

Escape From Suburbia

Escape is officially released June 8!

The long wait to order your Escape from Suburbia DVD ends June 8. Visit the Store or Buy the DVD sections of the refreshed Escape from Suburbia website for details.

We’d like to thank all of you for your patience and support. It’s been a long, hard road to bring this film to completion but this month will see many exciting events for you:

We’ve already had some early screenings in Alberta, where energy rules the provincial economy. In regional Ontario, the first of five premieres brought out committed community activists. Fundraisers for environmental groups in Hamilton, Oakville, Guelph and Erin take place in June – see the Theatres section of the Events page on our website.

Mid June dial up the full feature length version of Escape from Suburbia on The Documentary Channel. And if you’d like to party with the director, book your ticket now for the official world premiere in Toronto June 28 at the Bloor Cinema (7 p.m.) Full details and advance ticket information on the Events page on the website.

New website! We’ve revamped our website with a sharper design and updated content so you’ll have all the latest information on the film and how to get your hands on DVDs, purchase screening sponsorships, present our premieres in your community, and more. Check it out: http://escapefromsuburbia.com/

We’ll keep you updated with important developments in future, and once again thank you for hangin’ in while we finished our film.

Dara Rowland, producer

Hello TODers,

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/norway_russia_nuclear;_ylt=Akc49D_2gWfXSAOE93...
----------------------------
Group warns nuke fuel dump may explode
---------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

The next "folksy solution": energy from hydrogen liberated from water using a reaction with an aluminum/gallium alloy. News article
here

I haven't tried to track this down in any detail yet, but there is no sign the energy cost of constructing the alloy let alone extracting the aluminum has been taken into account. Obviously the energy used to break the H2O bonds has to come from somewhere, so the reaction cannot just be a catalyst, i.e., the alloy must be in some way consumed in the process.

This was on the Glenn Beck show on CNN, and of course the talk about why the guy has no DOE funding was blamed on egos, i.e., one step from conspiracy theories. The professor from Purdue is said to have discovered the process in 1967; no word on what happened with it in the intervening time during most of which the future need for energy sources has been well known.

You can find more than you want to know by googling for
glenn beck hydrogen aluminum

You will also thereby find much more than you want to know about his penchant for comparing A Gore to A Hitler concerning the global warming discussion. Beck is apparently a "major sceptic" on that, and of course the conspiracy theories come out very quickly during any of his discussions on the topic.

Hello TODers,

http://allafrica.com/stories/200706010488.html
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AS Zimbabwe slowly slides back to the dark ages, I was reminded of the old adage that "necessity is the mother of invention". Except that as a country we haven't invented anything but are adapting fast to our dire political and economic circumstances.

In street lingua, people are talking about this abiding crisis separating the "men" from the "boys".
-----------------------------------------------
Of course, this next link suggests that Zimbabwe is not adapting fast enough:

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/news/article_1312023.php/Zim...
---------------------------------
Zimbabwe's new wheat farmers have planted less than 40 per cent of their target hectarage this season, spelling doom for the country's food prospects, it was reported Friday.
-------------------------------------

Recall the earlier photo of the twelve year old African boy with the pink teddybear backpack: to more easily carry extra bullet clips for his AK47. Is this what distinguishes a postPeak man from a mere boy?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

This should be fun, a preview of "Off the Grid". A little taste of post-peak living arrangements.

http://www.reason.com/news/show/120512.html

Mose in Midland

Looks like we have a Tropical Storm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204024.shtml?5day

Hello TODers,

From Jan Lundberg's recent essay:

http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&...
-------------------------------------------------
When people cannot get to their jobs or get the foods and services they require daily, any significant breakdown can escalate into violent chaos with no floor, toward complete socioeconomic collapse and failure of government.

Big government will not be able (or interested in?) helping you, especially in cities as large as and larger than New Orleans. I believe the national and state governments will retrench under stress and choose to favor saving and supplying the rural areas; they are productive, whereas consuming-centers of huge cities may be written off and become die-off zones.
-------------------------

This will be an interesting development, but I am not sure how this will be accomplished. For example: how do you prevent an escape of untold millions from New York City? Will the governor in Albany be able to pre-emptively order the US military to nuke or bio-attack NYC to help save upstate NY?

Kunstler hypothesizes the exact opposite: Fed and State employees won't even bother to show up at work to answer their phones.

I think my middle-ground hypothesis is more plausible than either: The dynamic of elite Mercs contesting against Earthmarines.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Yesterday the optimists prevailed. Looks like the realists are back.

Oil, Gasoline Jump on Signs Fuel-Supply Deficit Won't Narrow

Even you know who is concerned.

``There's been a steady recovery in gasoline supplies but it's not enough to ease concerns about the driving season,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.

And from Antoine Halff Fimat USA

``We have been unable to build supply along the East Coast despite a dramatic surge in imports,'' Halff said. ``Refineries, with the exception of those along the West Coast, are running at a subdued rate and all in all gasoline demand has been resilient.''

Concerning Crude

``We keep hearing that supplies are adequate but they are at the same level as a year ago and we saw oil surge above $78 last summer,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It would take only a minor disruption to see a repeat of what happened a year ago.''

What a difference a day makes!

The other news.
Colonial Pipeline NY repaired gasoline leak after landowner noticed odor

This note for Super G and Editors (from post up top),

re: "Sorry for the inconvenience."

Thanks for keeping up with things. Good luck, and much appreciation.

the fda has warned consumers against made in china toothpaste. no specific brands were named, but "the brands affected are sold at 'bargain' retail outlets" ..............( presumably, it doesnt matter to the fda what brands because 'bargin' retail outlets are favored by low income 'merikuns).