Rembrandt,

Three cheers! I love the idea, great addition, but can I hit you right out of the gate with a request?

Please consider adding any information you can find on LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) or propane.

I have been at a complete loss in a 10 month effort in my attempts to find useful and valid price, supply and production information on propane.

It is like a "closed" industry. There are few attepts to market futures in propane, almost no attempts to market data on production and storage, and little information on the international propane trade. I have found a handful of greatly outdated newsletters, usually promotional stuff put out by the propane gas industry, "it's the fuel of the future, there's plenty, it's clean and cheap, the future is big, yada, yada...."

Please consider assisting in providing info in an area that has been virtually ignored....

Thanks, Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Hello Rembrandt,

Cool idea! I will be sure to reference your name, ASPO, and TOD if I use any charts and/or quotes. Is this following example minimally sufficient?

source: TOD & ASPO/NL member Rembrandt Koppelaar

Or would you prefer some other way to clearly document the ownership source?

I have no idea how much work would be involved in offering this info in various different languages--a suggestion for a later timeframe?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Is it possible to also have a "world crude oil export" chart? This would be very interesting.

Marco.

This is really useful, Rembrandt. Many thanks for your work.

Just a few minor suggestions:

1) It looks like there's room on page 3 for US distillate stocks. I know gasoline is all in the news at present, but if we ever have a bad winter...

2) I'm sure this is something that you would want to be seen by policymakers and industry analysts, and therefore I feel it's important that it should be as professional as possible. I know this will seem like a picky, minor gripe, but I notice in the opening write-up that you are interchangeably using both upper- and lower-case letters at the start of month names (february and February). I believe they should all be upper-case. You also have "juli 2006" in para 1, and "July 2006" in para 3.

A more arguable point is the use of a period to delineate thousands rather than a comma (226.000 vs 226,000). To be consistent with data releases in English from other main sources I think a comma should be used.

3) I looked on the ASPO Netherlands site and I can't see a page dedicated to downloads. You've given an advance release date for the next issue (very useful, thanks) but there's no way to hyperlink to a place where it can be accessed from. I think you should have such a page, and in English too since this is the language of the publication. (If you click on my usename above you will see that I've added Oilwatch to my calendar of releases for June in my bio. The link is to your home page, but a direct link to a download page would be better).

Thanks again - I look forward to future issues.

Rembrandt - this is great work and extremely useful. I'll use this all the time. You maybe want to stick an author reference on every chart - light grey water mark. I for one will cut and use these charts on a regular basis.

A couple of observations. Despite Buzzard coming on at near capacity, the trend of falling peaks and troughs in the UK has not been broken. We have had a lot of focus recently on Saudi Arabia and I'm beginning to wonder what is the state of the fields in UAE - they just had a couple of super giants from what I can recall - Bab and Zacum? Azerbaijan - pumping 800,000 bpd up from 300,000. The BTC pipleine has capacity of 1 million bpd - so it looks like this is not yet at capacity - some more supply growth to come there.

Is it possible to identify top ten NGL producers?

Its a lot of work to produce this monthly - so I wonder if quarterly may suffice - but showing monthly data.

Excellent idea and work.

I will look forward to this monthly addition.

Thanks for your efforts, Rembrandt. Very useful.

Capital stuff Rembrandt. Thanks for your work; the energy world is richer with it.

Thank you, Rembrandt! This is immensely useful. May I second the suggestion from Euan of a watermark on the graphs?
Ghawar Is Dying

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

Great idea and great work.
Please consider adding at least one graph of global production that starts at a date earlier than 2002. Such a graph would give greater perspective of more recent trends over the last 5 years.

Excellent work. I look forward to the next installment. I'm curious, I can't tell from the graph. What is the IEA reporting Saudi and Neutral Zone production as for February, March, and April?

Rembrandt,

Thnak you for your excellent work. This is yet another piece which is concise and informative, as is so many of the great articles puclished and maintained on the Oil Drum.

This may be slightly of topic, but along with the many other requests I had an Idea for a chart which I think would be very useful. I wish that I had the time and talent to construct this chart, but I lack both.

There has been a number of variations of charts showing Crude, liquids, crude & condensate, oil and gas in Barrel equivalent, etc. It seems to me that each liquid including crudes of different weights have varying Energy content. There appears to be an increase in the percent of heavy vs light etc. Would it be possible to normalize all of these and track something such as a Net BTU or Net Energy Production? If that were possible, I believe the point of Peak would become more relevant.

Respectfully,

EJ

Rembrandt,
Fantastic work. I will be a regular reader of this - it pulls together alot of data which forms the basis of the stuff we're all trying to figure out. Thank you very much for taking on this undertaking and I hope you will persist with it - it will add an awful lot.

And, if you're not already an oil market analyst, this will probably end up getting you a job as one!!

Regards,

Cuchulainn

This is excellent and most appreciated.

I'm a member of a town alternative energy commission that is initiating a wind energy project proposal, and this sort of information is precisely what I've needed to impress upon the town leadership why it is crucial to support such a project.

The aggregate graphing makes explaining things a whole lot easier.

Another set of graphs I'd like to see are demand and/or import growth/decline ones of various key countries or regions. Production is but one half of the picture, whereas where it is and is not going lately is worth understanding too.

Thanks so much.

Anybody else having trouble. When I clink on the link to the graphs [PDF size 3.5 megabyte] nothing comes up.

As oil prices rise we will start to get more rationing by price, so it is useful to look at the demand side. Here are some (outdated) country figures taken from Nationmaster for some oil importers.

Notes:

• Imports are in barrels/day for 2004 [CIA World Factbook, 28 July 2005]. These are the only countries listed by NationMaster.
• GDP(PPP) is in million International Dollars, 2004 [World Bank. 2005. World Development Indicators 2005.]
• 'Industry' is industrial output 2005 [CIA World Fact Book, millions USD]
• As the UK is becoming an importer, I've added UK@50% to represent the point when imports reach 50% of current UK consumption.
• These figures don't include Natural Gas consumption

The GDP and industrial output figures give two simplistic ways of measuring how well importing countries will be able to pay for more expensive oil. Imports/GDP gives a measure of the relative burden of expensive oil on the economy, and imports/industry is related to efficiency of use. Ranking by imports/GDP gives:

and the most vulnerable by imports/industry are:

This crude approach doesn't take account of how dependent critical infrastructure is on imported oil, eg hospital generators in Bangladesh. With that caveat, countries nearer the top of the lists are likely to see larger effects on their economies earlier - eg China looks less vulnerable than the US.

From the UK perspective, we will still be a long way from being priced out of the market even when we are importing 50% of our oil, but a lot depends on how rapidly our oil production declines and how quickly we can convert to non-fossil-fuel energy sources. UK@100% would still leave us in a (slightly) better position than France and Germany, based on these figures.