DrumBeat: April 13, 2007

Moneefa oilfield project on schedule, says Saudi

State owned oil giant Saudi Aramco said the development of its giant 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) offshore Moneefa oilfield was on schedule for completion in June 2011.

Moneefa is part of the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia's plans to expand oil production capacity beyound a 2009 target of 12.5 million bpd, from current capacity of 11.3 million bpd.

Moneefa's output will increase Opec's largest producer's supply of Arab Heavy Crude, which refiners find harder and more costly to process than lighter crude. The kingdom has signed deals to build two new 400,000 bpd domestic refineries and to upgrade others at home and abroad to process the heavier oil.

IEA warns on oil inventories after big Q1 drop

Oil stocks in consumer nations posted the biggest first-quarter drop in a decade and may fall further in coming months, the International Energy Agency said, keeping the heat under crude prices.

Germans demand China signs oil pact

An international initiative to promote transparency in the oil industry's often-murky finances will fail unless China participates, a German official said on Thursday.

Schwarzenegger to Michigan: Get off your butt

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger pulled no punches Wednesday in telling Detroit automakers to "get off your butt" and increase the fuel efficiency of their cars and trucks, saying they are "still lagging behind."

Cold, Soggy Weather Further Delays US Corn Seeding

Rain, snow and cold temperatures across the US Midwest on Wednesday threatened to further push back the already delayed start of corn seeding and could lead to less corn being planted, agronomists said.

World Bank Chief Says Clean Energy a Vital Issue

Clean energy, renewable energy and climate change may well become the World Bank's main focus in years to come despite the issue's absence from the lender's formal agenda at its meeting this weekend, President Paul Wolfowitz said on Thursday.

EPA publishes energy trends in manufacturing report

The report details energy consumption trends and related air emissions from the following sectors, which together represent 85% of the industrial energy use in the United States:

• Aluminum
• Forest Products
• Motor Vehicles
• Cement
• Iron & Steel
• Motor Vehicle Parts
• Chemical
• Metal Casting
• Petroleum Refining
• Food
• Metal Finishing
• Shipbuilding

Analysis: Violence threatens oil, Iraq

Last week a bomb successfully targeted a pipeline connecting the Rumaila oil field, which produces nearly half or Iraq's 2 million barrels per day, to the southern network. The attack was rare, since the oil infrastructure is seen as important for the country and a prize for the intra-sectarian battles, but could foreshadow new instability.

We cannot look from the sides as we are led towards crisis over Iran

Bush and Blair have spent four years preparing an onslaught that is about oil, rather than non-existent nuclear weapons.

Shell strikes deal to extract Iraqi gas

Shell is poised to become the first oil major to step back into Iraq after reports that it had signed a deal to extract natural gas in the Kurdish northern region.

China Reiterates: East China Sea Gas Projects are in EEZ

China on Thursday repeated that its gas exploration projects in the East China Sea, seen as problematic by Japan, are in China's exclusive economic zone.

The comments reiterating China's official position came after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speech in Tokyo that the two countries should shelve their disputes and try to find a solution to the issue through joint exploration of the area.

Scotland: Cautious approval for plan to end rail network private ownership

Passenger groups and business leaders yesterday said they would not oppose a not-for-profit organisation taking control of train operations after The Herald revealed top level informal talks have already taken place.

Sustainable energy has powerful future

OPPONENTS of renewable energy from the coal and nuclear industries, and their political supporters, are disseminating the fallacy that renewable energy cannot provide base-load power to substitute for coal-fired electricity.

Jeff Vail: The Self-Sufficient Gourmand (On 1/3 Acre!)

I laid out the kinds of food I would like to “survive” on—those things that I usually cook at home: a wide assortment of ultra-thin-crust pizzas, Spanish tapas, Mediterranean appetizers, hearty salads, fresh fruit, occasional Thai or Indian curries, etc. Fortunately (and perhaps not coincidentally), the climate constraints that I am dealing with (in this case, Southern Arizona) work fairly well for these food crops. How much land will it take to keep one person “in curry” with these lofty culinary goals? My answer may surprise you: about 1/3 of an acre.

Chevron, Weyerhaeuser to Develop Biofuel

Oil major Chevron Corp. and timber outfit Weyerhaeuser Co. on Thursday said they will look into jointly commercializing the production of biofuels from cellulose, the basic material of all green plants.

Climate Change and Peak Oil: An Integrated Policy Response for Australia

Climate change and peak oil are inextricably linked. Each one is a major issue in its own right, but their convergence has received minimal attention, which is unfortunate as it is likely to have far greater impact than the sum of the individual parts. Policy must ensure that solutions to the one reinforce, and do not conflict with, solutions to the other.

Author warns of oil catastrophe

David Strahan quit his job with the BBC to spend two years researching and writing his new book, The Last Oil Shock.

The book, which has just been published, is described as a wake-up call to a world sleepwalking towards catastrophe.

Gas supplies low heading into summer season

Refinery problems in the United States have driven up petroleum prices around the world, the International Energy Agency said yesterday, and analysts say refiners are going to have to run full-out to build inventories before the summer driving season.

In its monthly report, the Vienna-based IEA said global crude output was down sharply as a result of production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. However, it added: "The primary driver of higher prices has been the tight U.S. gasoline market."

We're Preparing For a Crisis

We eight have come to believe that a crisis is coming – on April 30, to be precise. (An oil shock, or something to do with oil.) We have no proof – it's just something a guy said in an unguarded moment. He may have been putting us on. But we don't think so. We have decided to prepare.

A greener planet begins under the kitchen sink

Next week [Diane MacEachern] is launching a national campaign and a website, BigGreenPurse.com, urging women to shift at least $1,000 of their annual household spending to green products. On average, people spend $18,000 a year on groceries and household goods.

Oilfield Technology and the Race Against Peak Oil

Opinions differ about future capabilities of oilfield technology. Some argue that technology will allow us to unlock trillions of barrels worth of oil out of unconventional and not-yet-discovered resources. Others argue that every technology in use today was developed twenty or thirty years ago; not only that, but growing service industry bottlenecks could halt several desperately needed development projects in their tracks. While both sides in this debate have valid points, I think it’s important to remain focused on progress underway at major projects and depletion of large existing fields, and not argue about potential resources thirty years into the future.

New fellow speaks on energy

Paul is a proponent of figuring out how to implement energy that is needed in cheap, efficient ways that have little or no negative impact on the environment. While he displayed knowledge of many of the popular proposed solutions to the “energy crisis” such as hydropower, solar power, nuclear power and various forms of ethanol, he said that if he were in charge of the United States’ energy policy, he would focus on comparing the solutions rather than trying to develop new ones.

Oil Is Root Of All Ills

The vast imported-petroleum needs of the West, India and China, and the resulting huge profits that pour into oil-exporting states, have super-sized the Middle East’s problems.

Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Caribbean Dreams

When one thinks of the Caribbean, visions of white sandy beaches and fruity cocktails with little pink umbrellas are not far behind. Perhaps furthest from that mental vacation is the large oil and gas deposits found offshore.

Uganda: Fuel Stations Ration Diesel Sales

THE persistent shortage of diesel has led to its rationing at some filling stations in Kampala. At GAPCO on Kampala Road, customers could not purchase more than sh20,000 worth of diesel.

"We limit people who come to fill big cars, even regular customers," said Sachin Pawar, the manager.

Bahamas: Push For Biodiesel Facility

According to the project plan, the most cost effective feedstock in The Bahamas is used cooking oil which is available in relatively high quantities. Waste cooking oil is further boosted through tourist related activities.

Ghana: Energy - Paradigm Shift Advocated

Reading from most of the experts on energy in Ghana and even from our own SNEP (Strategic National Energy Plan 2006), World Bank reports on how to generate energy for Ghana and the continent, there seems to be an underlying paradigm. Most of the studies and reports treat Ghana as just another country in the temperate North. Most of the solutions put forward seem to assume parameters that are not very relevant to us. It is not uncommon to read reports making a strong case against the lack of energy when the sun is not available in the winter; the problem with this line of argument is that we live on the equator and we will not be seeing winter and snow anytime soon.

Analysis: Increasing Auto Sales In Asia

Recent news reports indicate that auto sales have been rising in Asian countries like India and China, despite increasing concerns about pollution, global warming, and eventual oil depletion. An article in the Times of India was headlined "Auto sales grow 13.5% in '06-07", and reports from Forbes.com and MarketWatch indicated that DaimlerChrysler and Ford sales had increased substantially in northeast Asia. Other articles focused on the purchase of luxury vehicles by wealthy Chinese and Indians.

Chavez: Troops to escort oil takeovers

President Hugo Chavez said Thursday that soldiers will accompany government officials when they take over oil projects in the Orinoco River basin next month.

..."On May 1 we are going to take control of the oil fields," Chavez said. "I'm sure no transnational company is going to draw a shotgun, but we will go with the armed forces and the people."

Carolyn Baker - Conspiracy: If You're Not In One, You Need to Start One

This past weekend I received a call from two friends who with their three children are facing foreclosure on their home. For the past three years I have been warning them about an impending housing bubble, but like many families, they never believed it could actually happen to them. At the beginning of the conversation they stated, “We’re calling you because everything you’ve said that would happen to the economy in the past three years has happened. So we want to know if you think the housing market will bounce back?”

Once again, I had to tell my friends the ugly truth: The days of “bouncing back” are over. The world as we have known it is ending, and the tectonic plates of the economic landscape of the United States and the world are shifting beneath our feet.

Running On Empty? Not Yet

The theory that oil supplies have peaked and are on their way down has made more than a few Americans nervous. They should relax. A new study confirms that the market, if left alone, will provide for decades.

Saudi Arabia and Russia sign $100 million oil pipeline deal

Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a $100 million deal for laying an oil pipeline in the world's biggest sand desert, Rub Al Khali (Empty Quarter).

Asia's growth in domestic demand will outstrip US

Gulf investors should be quick in taking advantage of the Asian investment opportunities as the the continent's growth in domestic demand has the potential to overtake that of the US and emerge the key driver of global economy said an expert in Dubai yesterday.

Understanding OPEC: Cheaters Never Win

Baseball is a frustrating sport, and not just because there's all that standing around waiting for something exciting to happen. No, it's frustrating because unless your home team is the Yankee's, you're at a disadvantage. See, the Yankee's have more money than God, and therefore, they simply play the game by a different set of rules.

OPEC is the Yankees of the oil market. This not-so-secret society sits on 80 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and is responsible for 51 percent of the oil that's traded internationally on any given day. On paper, it wields enormous power over the world economy, and thus, any investor in the energy market should hang on every word coming out of the Cartel's whenever-we-feel-like-it meetings in Vienna.

Battling over the world's oil reserves

George Bush invaded Iraq for power, prestige and oil. Whilst the catastrophe of the occupation has dealt a huge blow to the prestige of US imperialism around the world and its power in the Middle East has been severely undermined, US and British oil companies are still set to get their hands on Iraq's oil.

Spring Break - Kunstler

The EIA is a perfect reflection of the public it serves. It appears to conduct daily business in a responsible way while it resolutely refuses to face the obvious realities of the future.

George Will: Fuzzy Climate Math

In a campaign without peacetime precedent, the media-entertainment-environmental complex is warning about global warming. Never, other than during the two world wars, has there been such a concerted effort by opinion-forming institutions to indoctrinate Americans, 83 percent of whom now call global warming a "serious problem."

Nuclear power is not the answer

BRITAIN'S SUPPLIES of oil and natural gas are running out. Oil and gas prices have been rising. On a world scale supplies are limited, and many experts are talking about shortly reaching the position of "Peak Oil", at which point production will start to fall. Even capitalist governments are waking up to the reality of global warming, and its link with emissions of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels, and the enormous cost it will bring to the system.

Paul Leventhal, Who Opposed Commercial Use of Nuclear Power, Dies at 69

Paul Leventhal, who as president of the small but influential Nuclear Control Institute was one of the most vocal opponents of expanding the commercial use of nuclear power, died Tuesday at his home in Chevy Chase, Md. He was 69.

UW-RF launches Institute for Sustainability

Meant to address energy, environmental, social and economic issues at the local, regional and global levels, UW-River Falls officials have created the St. Croix Institute for Sustainable Community Development.

Is Fort Wayne ready to become a city that draws young workers?

Could Fort Wayne actually implement a downtown proposal instead of merely talking about it? Is Fort Wayne on the path toward having a walkable, compact downtown that utilizes mixed-use developments to create a live-work-play environment? Is Fort Wayne taking steps to re-densify in the face of peak oil and the increasing cost of expanding suburbs?

Nissan, NEC to make hybrid batteries

Nissan and electronics maker NEC will produce batteries for ecologically friendly vehicles, the companies said Friday, signaling efforts by the Japanese automaker to catch up with rivals that have a head start in green technology.

Oil price nears 70 dollars in London

The price of Brent North Sea crude hit a seven-month high of 69.59 dollars a barrel Friday on concerns that current oil supplies may be insufficient to meet demand.

Brent North Sea crude for May delivery later stood at 69.21 dollars per barrel in London electronic trading, up 49 cents from Thursday. The contract expires at the close.

Rich, but Green

Hang in there, well-heeled but green-minded luxury-brand shoppers. If you can’t quite picture yourself, your family and all your stuff crammed into the small, quirky-looking and (shudder) increasingly common Toyota Prius, more choices are coming.

Search for survivors after Norwegian ship capsizes

Rescuers were hoping for "a miracle" Friday as they continued the search for five people missing after a Norwegian oil rig support vessel capsized in freezing waters off north Scotland, killing three.

The Bourbon Dolphin overturned about 75 nautical miles (140 kilometres) west of the remote north Shetland Islands near the Transocean Rather oil platform at about 5:00 pm (1600 GMT) Thursday.

Old marine terminals seen as a danger

Many of the marine terminals handling millions of gallons of petroleum products every day in California were built in the early 1900s, when oil was carried by ships one-tenth the size of today's tankers. And many of them are in disrepair and vulnerable to devastating spills and fires, particularly in the event of an earthquake or other calamity, state officials say.

Big money at stake in disputed oil deals

Oil and gas companies could get a windfall of billions of dollars if they win a lawsuit against the government over disputed royalty payments from deep-water leases in the Gulf of Mexico, a congressional report said Thursday.

Gulf states have right to nuclear energy: UN atomic chief

The head of the UN atomic watchdog said on Thursday that the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful ends.

"It is a natural right for the GCC countries to possess nuclear energy in order to use it for peaceful purposes," said the head of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei.

A rather mundane question: Any thoughts about how we should be adjusting the physical security of our homes - windows, doors, storm doors, locks, tempered glass, etc.?

I have thought about this alot. But have come to the conclusion that if it starts getting that bad that break-ins are frequent and non-discriminant, then it is time to get out of Dodge.

Securing a country home is a different story, IMHO.

Country or city, keeping a low profile will help from being targetted.

Either way, if people want in, they will get in...no matter how much gear you put in their way.

I should frame this with, I don't believe big cities will be safe or supplied once TSHTF.

The first question in all of this is, "What am I trying to protect myself from?" Is it a few passers-by who might try to break in? Is it an organized mob that is stripping the homes in the area bare? Or, what.

The second question is, "How far am I willing to go to protect what is mine?" Am I willing to kill potential intruders? What will I do if my warnings have no effect?

The third question is, "Could intruders exact retribution if they don't get what they want?" Could they, for example, burn my house down? Could they cut my power?

There are many more question that have to be asked along these lines and there are no easy answers.

Jim Rawles' book Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse has been mentioned before. One chapter has extensive information on what the fictional characters did to protect their house. Buy it and learn. You might also spend some time at his site: http://www.survivalblog.com


I think the more likely question to answer will be, "how do I keep my municipality from raising property taxes to the point where I lose my house?" Cause you know they will.

I forsee PO becoming an economic crisis, where debt and taxes wipe out 90% of the country. It won't be until after most people are destitute that government (local/state/federal) finally starts to whither and die.

It is a lot easier to fight off crackheads than it is the taxman.

I don't think you have to worry much about the taxman. We are the taxman. If it looks like taxes are going to drive a substantial portion of the populace to bankruptcy then the taxes will be lowered and city services will be lowered. California had its Proposition 13 (for good or ill). Michigan is now considering a tax moratorium of sorts. It makes no sense to bankrupt most of the citizenry. Especially since they will vote you out of office and the next guy will reverse that.

Hi Gail,

I'm not sure I can give you any advice on "securing the perimeter," but I will comment. Several years ago, I was working in South Alabama and driving through a number of rural communities and small towns.

What struck me was the number of modest homes that were outfitted with heavy iron bars on the windows and doors. When I asked a local resident what that was about, he told me that the "crack epidemic" was wreaking havoc on these communities.

I don't know what percentage of those security packages were sold by hucksters just preying on the fears of elderly folks -- no doubt that was the explanation for some of them -- but, I couldn't help but feel a real sadness as I drove past these fortified homes.

I would assume that these systems were fairly effective at keeping out casual intruders.

Heavy bars and grilles in windows and very strong doors were
a feature of architecture, especially urban architecture,
in europe and the near east for many many centuries.. While
in america there is not really an architectural vernacular for
such features, in the old world, such a thing wouldn't even
look out of place. Before street lighting was common, even
rather affluent parts of cities were pretty rife with
petty thefts, burglaries, robberies, and so on.

Yes, one of the things I noticed and really came to appreciate and love during my stay in France were the real working shutters on every window. These were designed to open and shut from the inside, thus providing both a degree of insulation & energy conservation and also a very effective degree of security. I suppose they could be designed (and some maybe were) so even the hinge pins were not accessible from the outside. That would not be enough to stop a rampaging mob (although even during Paris riots and revolutions, shuttered houses are usually left alone). It would be enough to deter all but the most determined intruder.

Standard on the majority of New Orleans homes. The owner can prepare for a hurricane in ten minutes (instead of plywood screwed in place, damaging the wood work).

Two types; batten (wood planks, cheap) and louvered (ley air and light filter in).

Best Hopes,


Criminals tend to gravitate to easier targets, especially if they appear juicy. It's the unlocked car vs the locked car, for instance. For the average criminal in our current state (Not post-peak) you want to dissuade criminals through a number of areas.

Your first priority is making your home appear as though you've taken steps to secure your home. Security (auto-on) lighting for at night, visible video cameras, and signage that shows that you have an alarm system in place help. No tresspassing signs will dissuade as well, and be sure to place "No soliciting" signs up on the property.

If a criminal is going to "scope" out your home beforehand, they may have someone else stop by to ask for money, try to sell you something, etc. Do not let them in the home, make it appear that you KNEW of their approach before they even rang the doorbell (even if you didn't), and let them know that they should leave IMMEDIATELY. If you appear threatening from their even stopping by to ask a question, their imagination can come up with ideas on how you would be if you caught them breaking in.

If you have multiple vehicles, swap out which vehicles you drive, so someone casing the place doesn't know if it's the same person leaving at XYZ time, making it uncertain if someone else is at the home. This is also another reason why you scare off solicitors, is that they may try to "sell" you something during the day to determine when you're actually home. If you park your vehicles in the garage, put cardboard, foil, or some other opaque material over the glass so a criminal cannot peek inside to see if someone is actually home or not.

Use deadbolts on your doors, and if there is glass that could be broken near the door, use double-deadbolts. (You have to use a key to get in or out.)

In regards to the alarm system, most alarm systems come with battery backups, and you can also get a cellphone connection as well, so that if the phone line is cut, the transmission still occurs. An alarm system will not prevent someone from making a quick dash inside and making off with a few items, but it does prevent them from trying to figure out where your safe is, etc. Police response times are slow for alarm systems. However, you can use the alarm system to alert you, as you likely can get yourself (or some friends/family that live nearby) to go take care of the problem until the police arrive.

All of these items are things that we use in our home. Certainly if someone wanted to break in, they COULD, but we tend to use items to deter criminals as opposed to physically stopping them. We infer to them a high level of danger both legally and physically if they were to break into our home. As a result, when we've had rashes of break-ins in the area, they've been at houses down the street, etc.

Of course, it's always good to be friends with your neighbors, and let your neighbors know who normally stops by at your house, so when they see a vehicle they do not recognize at your home when your car isn't there, they can investigate, or at least take note of the vehicle. If you're home one day that you normally work, and you notice someone going for their daily walk, go have a quick chat with them, make friends with them. They can be the neighborhood watch, as when you're on your daily walk, you've got nothing better to do than to take note of the houses you are passing. :)

I've ranted long enough. Haha.

I like the beware of dog sign.

And if don't have a dog, still it has deterrent value, and X10 make this cool remote dog bark alarm that you can trigger with a motion sensor.

Dogs are scary to most would-be criminals.

FWIW, post peak(TSHTF) get a real dog - and no poodle.

I like the beware of dog sign.

Everyone will have one of those. Get a Blackwater sticker instead.

...or one that I encounterd once:

"Never mind the dog. Beware of the owner."

Only problem...in Canada, it is an empty threat. We cannot defend our property with the vigor people in the US can, legally.

Doesn't mean I won't when the TSHTF (oops...I probably just got myself flagged by CSIS).


Think Blackwater Chrismas ornaments will scare them away?

Girls, don't feel safe on the dancefloor? How about a classy and elegant ladies' shirt?

For a few hundred dollars you should be able to buy yourself a whole lotta peace of mind. Keychains, license plates, coffee mugs, jackets, zippo's, get 'em all and make sure people can see them. Who's going to bother you?

Right. Imagine what the Third Reich might have accomplished with a website and some "merch."

Gail: I have been having similar thoughts.

For some basic information on how a professional thief works watch the tv series “it takes a thief” on the discovery channel. It is chocked full of information on how a particular house is targeted.


Although you can never prevent a determined looter from getting in (heck, if your house it to hard to break into, they will just burn it down.) you can discourage them.

Plant thorn, rose or cactus under your windows.
Put up a surveillance camera (fake or real).
There are special entry resistant window glass and one way glass (so they can't see if it is worth breaking in.

Get a safety deposit box or a real professionally installed safe. The ones at home depot were almost laughably easy to break into. A coworker actually had his picked up and carried off.

The problem with building an armored urban lifeboat is that if it looks like a fortress then it must be worth breaking into.

I'm probably going to get a safety deposit box today. Then plant some cactus. A plus with the cactus is the the prickle pear cactus is edible and so is it's fruit.

When I was growing up in Pennsylvania people would have vacation cabins in the pocono mountain region. Problem was that since they were only occasionally occupied they keep getting looted. So my dads boss had a trap door and a closet sized basement installed under the cabin. Even after repeated break ins the basement cache of supplies was never found.

Heh, for a second there I thought the trap door was for the looters. I expected the last sentence to read "Even after repeated break ins the basement cache of burglar skeletons was never found."

:) My thoughts exactly.

Your county police department should have printed guides for securing your home. And a healthy, trained neighborhood watch always helps.

My experience of living in a transitional neighborhood for eight years is that visibility, controlling the streets in front of our homes and attitude are most important.

Visibility: Only a few neighbors need to be visible at any time. Everyone on the street should know the first names of all their neighbors and all the children. Everyone should feel comfortable calling the police anytime they feel uncomfortable. And everyone should be able to contact everyone else at home and at work.

Street Control: It's a simple idea. Control the street in front of your home. Don't allow petty criminals to stand, park, or party there without questions and calls to the police. If you don't feel comfortable let the police ask and get answers to the hard questions. Once the bad guys notice they are being watched they leave for another neighborhood.

Attitude: Don't put up with crap and don't be afraid to get a few hard looks from those who want to control the street in front of your home. Stand up. Be Visible. But don't take any direct action. Let your local police do that work.

This seems to work OK for single family homes in a transitional neighborhood. With some adaptation it will probably work OK in other types of neighborhoods as well.

Last time (only time) I had a break-in the guy was hungry. I made him breakfast. Nice guy. Did some auto body work for me, did it beautifully.
Sorry, I'm forgetting about all the times the feds tossed my house. Yeah, I'm much more afraid of the "authorities" than of small-time freelancers. Most places the cops are the biggest best organized gang.

Boy, you hit that nail right on the head. In my experience, the cops can indeed be the best organized gang and they are able to hide behind their shield.

A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

Didn't post this up-top, because it's subscription-only:

Pemex Tightens Crude Prices

Mexico has narrowed the discount on most May crude shipments to the US. The discount for sour Maya crude for May deliveries to the US Gulf Coast narrowed to $2.

What does this mean, if anything?

I think the discount is priced off WTI, so the narrower discount is a reflection of the much-discussed logistical problems associated with Cushing.

OT FYI- I have a Google search in place for Nansen G. Saleri and he will be speaking at MIT on May 8, 2007 -

Info = 4 p.m. - 5 p.m.
NOTE SPECIAL DAY: in 54-915, EAPS Department Lecture, Dr. Nansen G. Saleri, Manager of Reservoir Management, Saudi Arabia, "TBA"

Web site = EAPS - Earth Atmosphere and Planetary Science

Should I email these in future or not?

This may be slightly OT, but it relates to Mexico.

This story came out yesterday: Mexican mogul is second-richest man

He is the owner/founder of TeleMex. And displaced Warren Buffet for the 2nd richest man in the world...

But that isn't what boggles me - it is a paper gain(sure, so are the others), but on the Mexican market...

You would think that the Mexican market would have corrected slightly given the PEMEX/CANTARELL news lately.

I guess no one is paying attention. No surprise there.

Could be they know about this:


OPEC production is at it's lowest point in two years.

Speaking of OPEC -

Who actually made cuts in this last round of quote reduction? (Other than KSA's 'voluntary' cuts)

Leanan, I'm upstream rather than downstream, but my thought is that due to the costs associated with changing the equipment at refineries, refiners want to purchase the same grades of crude. And, we all know about the crash in production at Cantarell, so the supply is insufficent to meet the demand.

I suppose Mexico increasing its heavy oil price is in response to Saudi Arabia cutting heavy oil shipments to Asia.

What do you think, does this accurately describe us?

The last paragraph from the article, "Running on Empty? Not Yet." says:

Peak oilers love a crisis and will try to alarm anyone who will listen and hector those who won't. Their message has attracted anti-progress, back-to-nature cranks and man-is-a-blight, overpopulation fringers, as well as conspiracists. They need to tone down the rhetoric and take another look at the facts.

Through enough rehtorique at a problem, and hope it'll go away, threat seems to be what the journalist is playing.

I'm not going to go into the details of the half truths being poured out, because that horse is well and truly dead (OPEC reserve increases after the start of the quota system, technology will all ways save us, invisible hand syndrome etc).

That said, some doomers are a bit over the top sometimes.


The article is filled with errors and half-truths. For instance, Deffeyes did NOT predict a 2000 or 2004 peak. He said that it might have but he was not personally predicting it for then.

By all means, you should ignore peak oil. Definitely go get that $500,000 mortgage and buy that hummer on 100% credit too. After all, by your view, none of this is a problem, right? So why don't you do as you preach and ignore peak oil, Keithster? Or do you have other motives for hanging out here?

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

Wow, I can't believe Keithster's quote came from IBD. Shocking.
It's amazing that PO is something that just doesn't seemly compute with people.
On top of peaking production, I'm concerned that oil exporting countries will learn from the chaos in ex-exporting countries in coming years- and decide to stop selling oil at any price.
That of course, would disrail any possibility of making an already painful transition.

I am not ignoring peak oil; I am profiting from it.

I am fully invested in oil companies, drillers, solar power companies, utilities, fuel cell companies and until last year, ethanol companies. Life is good.

...and this, too, shall pass.

Of course there is still plenty of oil in the ground. As someone pointed out the other day, there are also astronomical quantities of hydrocarbons on Saturn's moon Titan, just waiting for us! They maybe don't even need to be refined!

There is just that little problem about EROEI - something not mentioned in the Investor's Daily report. Too techie, I guess - just like those obsecure financial concepts like return on investment.

I've noticed that the cornucopians -- no longer having facts to support their theories -- are now relying on misinterpreted data, made up data, and ad hominem attacks on peak oilers to assert their points of view.

Do these cornucopians remind you of anyone? Global warming deniers for example? They only began to shrink when the evidence was overwhelming, in terms of theory, observations and effects. Even now there are still some GW deniers around and official action to deal with the problem is weak. So maybe it's naive to expect anything different with peak oil, there will always be plenty of denials around even when we are well past the peak of total liquids, let alone peak EROEI, and enforced demand destruction is causing disaster in Africa and recession in the West.

Those of us aware must essentially protect ourselves and at least such a tactic may be more applicable to peak oil and global warming. This is why Westexas's ELP post today and whatever follow-ups are planned, are so important.

That's right...

It's not the message...its the messenger. Lame,as usual.

And he is sadly wrong, IMO. Many, if not the majority, of the messengers fail to fall in his categories. And, some fit all.

They should relax. A new study confirms that the market, if left alone, will provide for decades.

I guess all cornucopians are the same too. :-P

Good Luck with that!

Of course the market will balance supply and demand. That is what markets do, and they do it elegantly.

What they don't do is assure that you, or I, or anyone else survives. Markets couldn't care less about that. Neither, I expect, do most of the readers of IBD.

Indeed. The marketplace provides for famine and destitution. It's the invisible fist of the marketplace.

Precisely. It is my opinion that most people alive today will regret letting the market solve this problem.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

Keithster, that probably does describe some peak oilers but it would be equally easy to paint the Peak Oil Denial crowd as a bunch of Escalade-driving, Gucci-loafer-wearing, money grubbing, Republican blowhards who spend more on a single lunch than the average American family spends on groceries for an entire month, all the while carping about "welfare cheats" and loudly proclaiming to anyone who will listen that America is great, the rest of the world is a bunch of idiots (esp the French) and that the only thing standing between all Americans and "the good life" is a bunch of limp-wristed, hand-wringing tree-huggers and their Islamo-fascist allies.

(there; I feel much better).

Sounds like a book title!


This is supposed to be a promotional comment, I believe:

"In the unique style that has endeared him to one of Canada’s largest and most loyal radio audiences, best-selling author Lowell Green launches an all-out exposé on those Canadians he says are wrecking our country."

Ugh. Someone cloned Rush Limbaugh.

Eh ?

That might be unfair. I've never heard of the man. It was just the title of his book that put me off:

How the granola-crunching, tree-hugging, thug huggers are wrecking our country! by Lowell Green

you must have met my brother.

I no longer care what "they" think of "us." This is the primate's response: attack that "group" that disagrees with "us."

Either prepare, or don't.

Keithster: Ho Ho Ho I have been tracking & saving oil production Facts (production data) since the early 80’s from the O&G J. Then in 93 I started loading it into XL. With all my production charts and consumption charts I made a Wise decision in 2002-2003, I started buying all the SLB, RIG, and BHI that I could afford. My, My, that account is up by more than 300%. I wonder Why? Probably because we have to much oil & gas in the world.

This is an ad for a newsletter called Strategic Investment (which I don't subscribe to), but it is still an interesting overview of current geopolitical risks:



There were more cars than ever in California in 2006, but for the first time in 14 years, the state's motorists bought less gasoline than the year before. The drop in sales was meager — less than 1% — but surprising given that nationwide, drivers are consuming more gas.

The Golden State, it seems, is different.

Prices that hovered above $3 a gallon prompted some Californians to cut back, others to park their cars altogether in favor of trains and buses, and still others to buy hybrids.

I can attest to the part about buying hybrids. Last year I got a Prius. In my neighborhood there are now about ten Priuses. It drives my kids nuts as they like those hot little Japanese cars. When we drive around here near San Francisco it is easy to see ten or twenty Priuses.

However, I travel a lot on business and when I am East of the Rockies I rarely see a Prius. In a lot of places I can go a week and maybe see just one or two. It is an amazing dichotomy.

Well...rest assured...even in conservative ole' Kansas City...there are a growing number of Prius'. We bought ours in 2003 and were the only ones around. Those were the first models that were smaller and rounder. The newer models are bigger and have a hatchback...more functional...and there are definetly more around than in 2003.

Change comes slow here, but it comes.

The article

What they don't want you to know about the coming oil crisis

By Jeremy Leggett
Published: 20 January 2006

Not quite up to your usual cutting edge reporting standards, Leanon!

Not that it isn't a good article

Um...I'm not a reporter. I don't even play one on TV. I do not write any of these articles myself, and posting a link does not mean endorsement by either me or TOD staff.

The DrumBeat links are meant as a survey of what the rest of the world is talking about, energy-wise.

C'mon - dont shoot the messenger!. Leanan does a great job finding these articles for us to read and judge. If you want to read filtered news - there are other places to go.


Sorry, no slight intended. Leanon does a great job.

When I posted it was top article on Drumbeat, and I thought it
was worth pointing out that it was not current.

I knew I should have included that smiley!

Oh...I think I see what you mean. I didn't notice the date.

That article was submitted by someone else, and I forgot to check the date on it. I didn't remember seeing it before, but that's probably because it's so old.

I'll remove it...

Vonnegut turn deserves another:

It has been my experience with literary critics and academics in this country, that clarity looks a lot like laziness and ignorance and childishness and cheapness to them. Any idea which can be grasped immediately is for them, by definition, something they knew all the time. (1983)


If you watch a credit card commercial, you can read all of Salon today.

Hybrid technology going commercial
A few interesting ways that hybrid technology can be used besides cars, the one on trains is interesting. Dunno if this was posted yet.

The greatest myth ever believed.

Well okay, that might be a slight exaggeration. There are greater myths concerning gods and demons. However the link above: Understanding OPEC: Cheaters Never Win contains the followi line line:

OPEC is the Yankees of the oil market. This not-so-secret society sits on 80 percent of the world’s oil reserves,

Well, no they don’t! OPEC sits on somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and I would guess that the number is much closer to 40 than to 50.

My point is, this great myth is believed by the mainstream media, it is believed by politicians and it is believed by a very large majority of the general public. But one day, perhaps soon, the world will learn the terrible truth about this myth. It might come in the form of an announcement from Saudi Arabia. Or it might come in the form of a news conference by Iranian leaders announcing that they want nuclear power because they truly running out of oil and gas, and they invite Western experts into their country to prove their case. And they would probably hint that the rest of the Middle East is in virtually the same position. And when this bombshell is dropped the world will never be the same again. "Peak Oil" will be on everyone's lips

This bombshell just might come on April 30 of this year. ;-)
We're Preparing For a Crisis

Ron Patterson

I'd like to know who's behind "We're preparing..." Anyone we know?

Seems like it might be a good way to reach those whose eyes glaze over at charts and graphs...

Ron, Leanan

You are aware that that link is for a work of fiction...I hope you knew, at least.

WORLD WITHOUT OIL is a work of fiction. The collaborative alternate reality begins April 30.
Play it – before you live it.

At the bottom, in green letters.

It still has informative value, and the promotional aspect is interesting.

That's why I said it might be a good way to reach people. Just setting up a web site isn't anything new. There's a lot of peak oil web sites.

But fiction can draw people in who wouldn't stick around here or at LATOC, ASPO, or PO.com. I've often thought something like the "Raptorman" blog (a fictional story about zombies taking over the U.S., written day by day as if it were happening live) would be a good way to spread the peak oil message.

I hoped you knew. I thought I would post anyways so others would.

I agree it can only help the message, even if only slightly.

Even if it is fiction...isn't it a good idea for a "real" web site?

PO Crisis Center???

Ron, Leanan

You are aware that that link is for a work of fiction...I hope you knew, at least.

PeakTO, that link in my post was accompanied by a smiley face. The rest of my post was not. I might have guessed that my attempt at humor would get far more attention than the very serious part of my post.

Seriously, (notice no smiley face), when the world becomes aware that those vast Middle East reserves are a myth, the world will never be the same again. It will trigger a stock market sell off, it will trigger hording by many exporting nations, it will trigger.....God only knows what.

Ron Patterson

No disrespect intended. I just imagined I wasn't the only one who followed the link to find out it was a fictional/promo site.

Ditto on the "God only knows what"

Seems to have something to do with PBS. I couldn't find any indication that it is in association with an upcoming program, but maybe that will follow later?

Leanan...did you just get a hit on a Google search for this site?

OPEC is the Yankees of the oil market. This not-so-secret society sits on 80 percent of the world’s oil reserves,

Well, no they don’t! OPEC sits on somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and I would guess that the number is much closer to 40 than to 50.

This is what converted me into a peak-oiler. I used to think that the Middle East had the great bulk of all the world's oil reserves, and that this was not a very good situation. Then I saw somewhere - I don't remember where it was the first time - a graph showing how the OPEC countries adjusted their "proven reserves" estimates in the 1980's, at the time when reserves were used to determine production quotas. I looked at that and said "uh oh." Also telling was a graph showing how discoveries peaked in the 1960s.

It might come in the form of an announcement from Saudi Arabia. Or it might come in the form of a news conference by Iranian leaders announcing that they want nuclear power because they truly running out of oil and gas, and they invite Western experts into their country to prove their case.

Iran (and the whole of the middle east) wants nuclear power not because they're running out of oil and gas (they might be but its irrelevant) but because in a sellers market its more economic to sell the fuel abroad and produce nuclear electricity at home.

And the whole strategic positioning thing of course.

About that "We're Preparing For a Crisis" link: could someone here make a little note on that entry, specifying that it's a promotional thing, or it's a work of fiction, or something? It took me a while to see the little tiny disclaimer at the bottom of the page, and in the meantime I thought a new doomer website was up and running for real.

Leanan...is it just me or do today's articles have a more radical/alarmist tone than usual?

Not saying I like it one way or the other, but there just seems to be more.

I especially like this one:

We're preparing for a crisis


Do you know the people that set this web site up? Do you know more about the site?

Don't know anything about that site. I'm not even sure if they are doing it just for fun, or as a way to raise awareness of peak oil.

There are suddenly a lot of energy articles out there, and the tone on both sides seems to be getting more strident. Both the "it's time to panic" side and the "peak oilers are nuts" side.

For what it is worth, the domain registration says this:

Domain ID:D130339022-LROR
Created On:09-Oct-2006 20:53:29 UTC
Last Updated On:10-Mar-2007 21:11:47 UTC
Expiration Date:09-Oct-2007 20:53:29 UTC
Sponsoring Registrar:Tucows Inc. (R11-LROR)
Registrant ID:tu005zv3UOySVHzj
Registrant Name:Ken Eklund
Registrant Organization:writerguy
Registrant Street1:526 Fuller Avenue
Registrant Street2:
Registrant Street3:
Registrant City:san Jose
Registrant State/Province:CA
Registrant Postal Code:95125
Registrant Country:US
Registrant Phone:+1.4082801441
Registrant Phone Ext.:
Registrant FAX:
Registrant FAX Ext.:
Registrant Email:wwo@writerguy.com

And buried in there, they say this:

WORLD WITHOUT OIL is a work of fiction. The collaborative alternate reality begins April 30.
Play it – before you live it.

It reminded me years ago someone I knew who was a peace activist posted signs all over town saying that there would be a "nuclear test" in the town square at noon on a certain day. This of course alarmed a lot of people, so a lot of folks turned up.

What they got was a test in the form of a questionnaire.

If you go to writerguy.com and follow the link to "world without oil" at the bottom, you get this:

creative director and producer
GAME TYPE: alternate reality game
TARGET PLAYERS: general public
create engaging cooperative and imaginative play on a major social issue
TAGS: worldwithoutoil, alternate reality game, game for the public good, oil shock simulation
FUNDED BY : Corporation for Public Broadcasting
YEAR: 2007

World Without Oil is the first major project to invite the Internet's staggering collective intelligence and imagination to address a real world problem: a realistic global oil shock.

The game for the public good begins April 30.

"Play it – before you live it."

Ya...all very interesting...I'm intrigued.

Why 4/30/07? Is this when they start "acting" like it's real or are they expecting something to happen then?

Any guesses?

No idea. I am curious as to what the connection to CPB/PBS might be - I don't see any program announcements that would coincide with the start of the game, but we are too far out to see schedules for 4/30.

I did find this site:


where there is discussion of the thing. I found more discussion here:


Then here:

I found something about an announcement:

Everyone knows that “someday” there will be less oil than the world needs. What if that day was sooner than you thought? How would your life change?

On Monday, April 30, ITVS and the Writerguy design team will launch WORLD WITHOUT OIL, a live interactive month-long alternate reality event that explores this very real possibility. Players are invited to creatively document their lives in the new reality, with blog posts, images, videos or phone calls.

“Alternate reality gaming is emerging as the way for the world to imagine and engineer a best-case-scenario future,” says WORLD WITHOUT OIL’s participation architect, noted futurist Jane McGonigal. “It’s been summed up this way: ‘If you want to change the future, play with it first.” “No one person or small group can hope to capture the complex rippling effects of an oil shock,” adds Creative Director Ken Ecklund, “but the collective imagination can.”

WORLD WITHOUT OIL is an Electric Shadows Project produced by the Writerguy design team, presented by ITVS Interactive and funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

I am not really into playing these sorts of games or anything, but it might be interesting to sit on the sidelines and see what happens.

I guess if 'something' was going to happen in the real world then...I don't think we would be 'playing' then.

FUNDED BY : Corporation for Public Broadcasting

Whoa. Government funding???

Don't we have a TOD entity named "writerguy"?

No...it is writerman..my bad.

Yes, you are bad - bad for the English language. Bad is an adjective not a noun!
James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.

Dude...you never heard of slang...man..you're dope!!

According to the IEA's warning...

We drewdown 80.5 million barrels in one month (Feb).

That equates to 2.683 million barrels per day on a 30 day month (Feb was NOT, being conservative).

2.68 MMBPD was used but NOT imported, or supplied either.

This makes even the Saudi cutbacks look like chump change.

Why, in general? Why wouldn't refiners keep importing, especially to build stock before the summer price spikes? It definitely looks like the 'Market' is not in control.

I know these inventory drops have been building, but the rationale(or lack of) seems to set alarm bells ringing in my head.

From:Crude Oil Jumps After IEA Says OPEC Output Fell to Two-Year Low

The 10 OPEC countries with quotas for production said last year they would cut output to 25.8 million barrels a day from September's 27.5 million barrels, to keep prices near $60 a barrel.

Excluding Angola and Iraq, which have no quota, output from OPEC fell to 26.55 million barrels of oil a day, the IEA estimated. That compares with 26.77 million barrels a day in February.

So, OPEC is only off - 950,000 kbpd from the Sept. 2006 high. This hardly seems to cover the KSA declines ('voluntary'), so it would seem no other OPEC country is substantially cutting output (I am sorry, I haven't found a recent source of OPEC outputs by country, yet)

Since IEA is warning here of continued inventory drawdown at a 1MMBPD rate, and KSA is announcing further cutbacks for Asian deliveries.

It would appear that KSA is the sole reason for inventory shortfall at the moment (or the amazingly selfless nation that cutback its shipments to support OPEC).

As summer driving season (oil demand season) approaches, they are still announcing Asian delivery cutbacks, and no sign of quota increases at OPEC(err..KSA).

If KSA doesn't ramp up(supposing they can), this summer will be a shock.

Sorry for the long post, just thinking aloud.

(I am sorry, I haven't found a recent source of OPEC outputs by country, yet)

They can be found here:

Ron Patterson

Thanks Ron,

Referencing that, it would seem that it is still KSA that is 'claiming' to have surplus capacity of any significance, and have cutback(voluntarily?).

Everyone else appears to be flat out(as we already knew) and unfortunately, still doesn't help verify who made cuts since Sept., as the table only goes back 2 months.

Poking around the EIA site some more, I find this 2005 exports and production table. It shows Saudi exports 2005 at 9.1 mmbpd and production as 11.1 mmbpd.

I think that means internal consumption in 2005 was 2 mmbpd.

But they have stated their productive capacity is only 11.3 mmbpd currently, and are trying to get to 12.5mmbpd.

Moneefa is part of the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia's plans to expand oil production capacity beyound a 2009 target of 12.5 million bpd, from current capacity of 11.3 million bpd.

from: top news post above

Could this be an example of net exports causing the near term crunch?

When I look at this information, it seems that the Saudi's are not lying, it's just that the public can't pick up on the details.

Or is the definition of productive capacity not obvious?

Such as - if we need to, we(KSA) will ration at home and send everyone else more???

Otherwise, they have been saying all for a couple years they have no spare exports. Spring forward to 2007, and internal consumption has increased, and declines are steepening...8.44mmbpd.

Really sorry if this is a rehash, or obvious.


Are Moneefa and Manifa different spellings of the same oilfield?


War Czar (watch the video !!!)

For a while it looked as if Rumsfeld had no rivals at all for the new post, but not so fast....

World Bank pledges action on Wolfowitz

Paul Wolfowitz’s future as president of the World Bank was in jeopardy on Friday after the bank’s board issued a damaging finding of facts on his role in the Shaha Riza affair and pledged to ”move expeditiously to reach a conclusion on possible actions to take.”

The board said that its ”consideration of the matter” would ”focus on all the relevant governance implications for the Bank”.

The promise of further action will intensify pressure on Mr Wolfowitz to step down of his own accord, ahead of possible censure by the board.

Something to add to the mix.

Steorn is an industrial design / product development firm in Ireland. Best known for their tech solutions in ATM, magnetic strip card reading devices, etc. Highly successful with serious revenue streams from their patents.

They have developed a device that generates move electricity than it consumes, (this is where most people invariably dismiss the notion mumbling something about second law, thermodynamics, yada yada).

There are several reasons I have for believing they are real;

They are well respected and stand to loose millions in development contracts if it is a hoax.

They are not switching or working the magnet, in other words stressing it or relying simply on repel / attract, (that kind. They are doing something involving circumnavigating the poles of the magnetic field, as best I can understand it.

They are currently under a review process by a large group of scientist around the globe as they understand that they are challenging the laws of physics, this also serves to rapidly expose the tech far and wide to avoid repression and monopolization. Providing free to third world Countries.

It is scalable from cell phone power to home generation.

This is real and needs to be factored into all of our considerations in going forward.

I have no clue what it will take to get one in the basement of each house, under the hood of each SUV but I do know that that is what is going to be attempted.

This is either the most exciting development ever or the worst thing that could happen right now. For the life of me I can’t decide which.

They have made a new announcement today. Very interesting!!!



They've released no details. There are no specifics. The "panel of cynics" all signed NDA's.

Classic Ponzi scheme if you want my opinion.

The $75,000 they spent on the economist ad is their biggest claim to legitmacy. $75k is a small price to pay if it means you can drum up millions in venture capital from fools.


I'm trying to listen to the update now.

It is possible .... still for this to turn int a scam. Let's see ?

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

Sounds very much like a perpetual motion machine. Of the "magnet" persuasion. Though I'm not sure if they are intentionally carrying out a scam, or if they really believe it.

The PPM concept is a result of Lorenz discarding the original Maxwell that was asymmetrical. The equations that have been passed down were only the symmetrical formulations.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

I have been active in industrial design for 15 years and have heard about Steorns accomplishments off and on, tradeshows and such). I also know that they have multimillion dollar licensing deals for other technologies and have much more to loose than could possibly be gained in a short run ponzi scheme.Throwing it all away for short term gains seems to be more of an American thing currently.

Funny, the Wikipedia article says they have very little revenue, and seem to be surviving on money from investors.

They sound like a dot-com company struggling to hang on, to me.


“very little revenue”

Have you listened to the video ?

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

Anyone can make a video saying anything.

Here's what Wikipedia says, based on Steorn's own financial reports:

In March 2007 Steorn finally filled the 2004 and 2005 returns, which are now visible on the CRO website (but have not yet been scanned and are not yet available for download). Steorn's accounts for the year ending December 31, 2003, show that the company's Profit and Loss Account had an accumulated loss of € 192,661, while its cash reserves were € 94.

An update to the company's web site on February 9, 2007 includes an informal summary of the company's accounts as of 2006. The summary shows pre-tax losses of €779,047, €1,815,666, and €3,247,938 in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively.

Steorn's present revenues appear to be very small. The company has stated that "Most revenue comes from forensic work for law enforcement ... There in no way that we continue with this work while this process goes on." That is, the company appears to be financed primarily by investment. The company's investment history shows share allotments for cash in August 2000, January 2001, March 2001, March 2004, then several rounds in December 2004, and one most recently in October 2005, ten months before the PR campaign was mounted. The investments amount to €3 million in total.

"Anyone can make a video saying anything."

Most certainly.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

"The second law of thermodynamics holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell's equations - then so much the worse for Maxwell's equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation, well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation".

Clearly, when writing this, Eddington, had yet to make the acquaintance of the wee men in green clothing.

You obviously need to bone up on the current info.
Here's a bone:

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

RBM, from a theoretical standpoint that is very interesting (at least as much of it as my ag-sciences trained mind could absorb) but don't forget that much of what may be "true" in the larger universe may have no relevance or application in our little frame of reference.

I love free lunches. I've just never eaten one.

Read up, it's all on the web. Follow the links.
Nobel Prizes have been awarded for work in this gap.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

Did you read this article? It clearly states two important claims.

1. [T]hat as the time or system size increases ... , the probability of observing an entropy production opposite to that dictated by the second law of thermodynamics decreases exponentially.

2. When applied to macroscopic systems, the FT is equivalent to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

In simpler English, Thermodynamics describes how things behave when considering things at a "large" scale. It has long been accepted that there are small fluctuations away from equilibrium. The work described in this article quantifies how large and rare the fluctuations might be.

The first claim says that if you happen to observe a small deviation in a system away from equilibrium then the likelihood that the deviation will increase decreases at an exponential rate according to the size of the deviation or the length of time that you observe it.

In other words, this is interesting science but you are not going to build a new energy source by it.

“In other words, this is interesting science but you are not going to build a new energy source by it.”

And you were hoping to derive an energy system from just that ? I called it a bone for a reason.

Here's a few more bones, 34 in this enumeration. but I personally wouldn't call it a skeleton.

Flaws in Classical EM Theory :

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

"They have developed a device that generates move electricity than it consumes, (this is where most people invariably dismiss the notion mumbling something about second law, thermodynamics, yada yada)."

Yes, and for good reason. You see, thermodynamics is not just a good idea, it's the law. :-)

And so most (even vaguely scientifically literate) people natural dismiss the notion.

Because it's bullshit. Yada yada yourself.

All that Steorn needs to do is call a press conference to be held out in the middle of the parking lot. Have the press choose one of their own to bring a platform to set their device on. Steorn puts the gadget on the platform and turns it on. Connect a fan to the electrical output of the gadget and see how long it keeps running. A very simple demonstration that any claimant of over-unity could do but have never done.

Been done, read Tesla's story - all of it.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

Please give date and place where Tesla indisputably demonstrated over-unity. The writing of and about Tesla are quite large so a little more specific reference is needed here.

Invest NOW and recieve a complimentary Honorary Doctorate from the word famous Institute of Accelerated Entropy!

Tesla remark was directed toward public disclosure aspect.

Can't know if Tesla had a simple over unity device or not. He was beyond that. But my constrained remark at least generated a question from you.

I will accept your question in good faith, rather to play the ol' gatcha game.

The single, best, open to the public site, is Tom Bearden's. That ought to shrink the haystack effect you allude too.

Here's Tom's, et al. over unity device called the MEG:

Here's a paper on Japanese work by Tom:

Tom also has a pic on the Wankel engine mentioned in the above link:
http://www.cheniere.org/misc/wankel.htm' ?

Come on. These guys are Irish. What else do you need to know?

(call me racist. Go ahead.)

racist and your knowing you are one excuses nothing

I read the forums over at Steorn every once and a while for kicks. The most interesting theory I read was that now that we've arrived at Peak Oil, the petro-dollar/oil conspiracy is ready to give up suppressing free energy technology. It seems that there are a ton of "free energy" companies popping up out of the woodwork all over the place. If you want to get into peak oil denial mode and start believing in a techno fix you can go listen to this interview of Mike Brady from Perendev Power:


Or you can just go to plan B and buy guns, a composting toilet and learn permaculture gardening.

Browsing today elsewhere, I came across this gem:

ABSTRACT Both anthropologists and nutritionists have long recognized that the diets of modern-day hunter-gatherers may represent a reference standard for modern human nutrition and a model for defense against certain diseases of affluence. Because the hunter-gatherer way of life is now probably extinct in its purely un-Westernized form, nutritionists and anthropologists must rely on indirect procedures to reconstruct the traditional diet of preagricultural humans. In this analysis, we incorporate the most recent ethnographic compilation of plant-to-animal economic subsistence patterns of hunter-gatherers to estimate likely dietary macronutrient intakes (% of energy) for environmentally diverse hunter-gatherer populations. Furthermore, we show how differences in the percentage of body fat in prey animals would alter protein intakes in hunter-gatherers and how a maximal protein ceiling influences the selection of other macronutrients. Our analysis showed that whenever and wherever it was ecologically possible, hunter-gatherers consumed high amounts (45–65% of energy) of animal food. Most (73%) of the worldwide hunter-gatherer societies derived >50% (≥56–65% of energy) of their subsistence from
animal foods, whereas only 14% of these societies derived >50% (≥56–65% of energy) of their subsistence from gathered plant foods. This high reliance on animal-based foods coupled with the relatively low carbohydrate content of wild plant foods produces universally characteristic macronutrient consumption ratios in which protein is elevated (19–35% of energy) at the expense of carbohydrates
(22–40% of energy). Am J Clin Nutr 2000;71:682–92.

Ref: Plant-animal subsistence ratios and macronutrient energy estimations in worldwide hunter-gatherer diets

Further rebuttal of the romantic image of paleolithic man and an indication of why 7 billion people cannot live at paleolithic levels. (I leave the logical conclusion of that to the reader.)

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

My offering for the day...

A look back at how things have changed and haven't changed since 1999...

First, I point to this relic of a web page, which is a Q&A piece from 1999:


In Davenport, Iowa the price of gasoline is $1.17. During the last year it went as low as $0.86. I bought it in Southwest Missouri two weeks ago at $1.06. Considering the variations in price, there is a little gouging going on.

I chose this page because the price of gasoline in Davenport, IA is discussed and I just happen to be from that area. For that year, gasoline price ranged anywhere from 80 cents to about 1.20 per gallon.

I now point you to this web page, dated April 8th, 1999:


It's time we did something about the price of gasoline in America! We are all tired of high prices when there are literally millions of gallons in storage.

Know what I found out? If there were just one day when no one purchased any gasoline, prices would drop drastically. The so-called oil cartel has decided to slow production by some two million barrels per day to drive up the price.

Back in 1999, I was working at a truck wash making $8.25/hr. Good money for a kid my age, they always said. And indeed it seemed like good money at the time. I had no bills and still lived with my dad. Ahhh the good life...

Flash forward to 2005, I was working at the truck wash still making $8.25/hr. But now I had a girlfriend, a 1 year old daughter, an apartment, 2 vehicles, and on top of all that I was trying to be a full-time college student. That summer gasoline prices pinged 3 dollars/gallon. We were evicted twice. I lost my license. The misses moved back in with her parents and I moved in with my mom. Looking back, I can easily say Peak Oil got the best of us.

Now it's 2007. I finally have a decent job making 40k per year. I managed to get lucky and got a job as a webmaster out here in SoCal. My situation isn't permanent, since my family still lives back in Iowa. I have found it's nearly impossible to get by on 40k per year in SoCal, so I will be migrating back to the Midwest sometime in the near future.

Alot has changed in 8 years, but then again alot hasn't.

The Law of Receding Horizons... need I say more?

The Law of Receding Horizons

Hey, my law is catching on!!

I see Robert Rapier uses it as well in his TDP: The Next Big Thing (haven't read it through yet), where he de-mystifies thermal depolymerization, and mentions it more than once even.

Thanks, Robert *. I hope people will start to understand WHY this is indeed a law.

Whether it's economics eventually, or purely net energy down the line, all alternative energy forms will collapse upon themselves due to this law.

Give the tar sands maybe 5 more years, same for various biofuels, and they'll be gone, dead and over, leaving us with sour memories and sky-high debts to pay off.

We'll dig ourselves into a much deeper hole before we stop digging. Should define a law for that one too.

* By the by, the name is Fly, not "a poster", and I'll have my legal department look into the copyright situation. Seriously, it would be worth much more if the veracity and inevitability of the law is understood, and we can move beyond dream schemes towards a realistic picture of what we're headed for.

You're not asking for royalties are you??? =D

Hey, you've succinctly described something many of us have tried putting into words. May way to call it Fly's Law of Receding Horizons while there's still time.

After reading your first use of it, I IMMEDIATELY started using it. Good job.

Maxwells original equations accounted for SCALAR effect as well as volumetric but were thrown out because they took way too long to calculate and it was assumed that that part of EM field theory followed the simpler volumetric calcs any way so…
There have been many Over Unity devices throughout history that have been suppressed. (ooooooo the boogie men) The reaction of just the first few comments is a prime example of why Steorn is proceeding the way they are.

Look, soup, if you or someone else has a way to generate energy that is (a) environmentally benign (b) is "free" or at least affordable to 6.5 billion souls and (c) will stop everyone from fighting over what remains of the planet's fossil fuel resources, then -- as our supreme commander would say -- "Bring it on!"

...and don't dally. We ain't got forever.

Look, I am completely willing to believe that someone may have a clearer theory of physics than we currently do and that they might be able to produce technology based on that theory which appears to violate everything we "know". But you have to admit that any claim like that is pretty incredible, isn't it? And incredible claims demand peer review and clear evidence.

It would be wonderful if they can do what they say they can do. But what they need to do is prove it. And more to the point, they need to demonstrate their principles openly so that others can test and reproduce those results. If they have a patent, then they will be protected.

All that any of us ask is that they prove what they can do. So far, I am not seeing any proof. Isn't that a fair request to make for a claim so incredible? In fact, I'd argue that we'd not be doing due diligence about such claims unless they could be clearly and independently verified.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

thats whats happening
its very far along
what will that mean for PO?

I will be quite honest in that I don't expect any more success from Steorn than from dozens of other such failed ventures. I'd dearly love to be wrong, to be able to have limitless energy at our fingertips, but right now there is no public data to support the claims. So far there is only hype.

Call me when they can run a 100 watt light bulb from their machine non-stop with no other inputs and demonstrate it for anyone to see.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

There is MUCH more to this story than what Stoern does. Many, if not almost all have been discussed on this board in the short few months I've been around.

And will that demo have to be in the first person ? As Leanan has already pointed out anyone can make a video.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

Sir, souperman2, you're what is known as a troll. Whether this company has something or doesn't is immaterial to the PO debate until there is a production machine. Until then, go away and stop trying to defraud us of our time and money!

Sorry if you're a juvenile; in that case, wait until you've mastered your high school physics, and get back to us.

James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.


It is certainly an incredible claim, and they know it. They could not get a patent, as they state their claim violates fundamental laws of physics, and no patent office would grant a patent. They can't just publish the details, as naturally they want to make money from it. They can't just publish their own proof, they need to get respected scientists to investigate and go on the record. They are progressing pretty much the only way they can given the nature of their claim.

As for the claim, it is sad but predictable that some people say that the laws of physics are immutable. Science does not work like that, it is not religion. There are very likely things still to discover that will refine if not overturn our understanding of the Universe.

On a historical note, the persistent failure of anyone to create a proper perpetual motion machine provided strong support for the theory of the conservation of energy. This does not mean the first law is a "fact", but it is a very well supported theory. Like any theory, should new observations contradict the theory, then the theory may be modified.

The odds are very much against Steorn of course, but there is a possibility they have something novel. Personally I suspect they are mistaken, e.g. there is an overlooked energy source, or they have discovered a curious effect that does not have a practical application, like cold fusion. I am pretty wary of magnetic devices, magnetism has a sort of mystical property for PMM seekers.

I'll look forward to July to see what they come up with. Perhaps I will be able to attend their public demonstration in London.

You too sir, BobCousins, are a troll. Please read my reply to that other troll souperman2 above. Desist!

James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.

Hey, fuck you, asshole.

I do not believe you're a troll. However by writing this.

On a historical note, the persistent failure of anyone to create a proper perpetual motion machine provided strong support for the theory of the conservation of energy. This does not mean the first law is a "fact", but it is a very well supported theory. Like any theory, should new observations contradict the theory, then the theory may be modified.

You show yourself not only to be ignorant about even the most basic concepts of physics, you also demonstrate, that you have mindset, that prevents you from understanding physics in the first place.

Following your 'logic' one could also reason that just because gravity has kept us from getting thrown of the planet so far, it doesn't mean it won't happen tomorrow.

The second law of thermodynamics holds true today and will continue to do so litterally until the end of time itself. Perpetual motion is the realm of cranks, loons and morons. Which are you.

Steorn feels like a scam, looks like a scam, smells like a scam. If it was for real, it WOULD be handled differently. For one thing, the people doing it would disappear very quickly, one way or another.

And what's the deal about them recruiting a thousand 'testers' and only winding up with 22 who met their criteria? At least that's what it sounded like.

"Theories of Everything" are mostly necessary to deal with theoretical unification of things in ultra-extreme conditions. Invalidation of entropy using magnets is about as likely as unearthing a book of working magic spells. It'd be cool, but nothing to plan around.

"Theories of Everything" are mostly necessary to deal with theoretical unification of things in ultra-extreme conditions.

Excuse me ? Wiki:
"A theory of everything (TOE) is a hypothetical theory of theoretical physics that fully explains and links together all known physical phenomena."
It continues:
Initially, the term was used with an ironic connotation to refer to various overgeneralized theories

Irony, that's ONE aspect of how I use it.

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

"..a hypothetical theory of theoretical physics that fully explains.."

- they call that kid a WordSmith!

And what's the deal about them recruiting a thousand 'testers' and only winding up with 22 who met their criteria?

That is pretty typical of the way these scams operate. They cherry-pick the "experts" to find those who are accommodating.

And scientists are often not all that great at detecting scams. They look for error, not deception. Hence the scientists who get away with falsifying their data for years.

Tesla Dead Ahead! The Automobile’s Energy-Lean and Speed-Restricted Future
By Stein X Leikanger
April 13, 2007

Just as there’s a cadre of computer users who know how to pip a file in CP/M, there’s a small slice of SUV/CUV/pickup owners who use their vehicles to their fullest. Clearly, obviously, most don’t. Instead they defend their vehicular choices by citing seldom-seen scenarios: towing equipment they don’t own, forging through storms they know they’ll avoid, and surviving crashes that have yet to occur.

Thankfully, drivers are wising up. Whether their change of heart’s been stimulated by the rising price of gas or environmental consciousness, they’re figuring out that sitting on several tons of metal to move a couple of humans from points A to B is silly. That’s why they’re looking for alternatives. Which is also why I’m disappointed with the Tesla Roadster.

In a world crying out for energy efficient transportation solutions, Tesla’s battery-powered sports car is a dead end. The Tesla is a toy that tries to combine the benefits of megapowered supercars with a warm ecofriendly buzz. This does not compute. The future of automobiles (self-movers) is energy-lean and speed-restrictive.

A period is coming where self-moving will again be considered a privilege, not a right. Where the cost of self-moving will have to be paid for on the spot, as a function of energy efficiency and estimated long term environmental impact. Available energy will be channeled to where it will deliver the most work per unit. You’ll be charged accordingly for less efficient energy use.


And from the comments:

Why are people piling on the Tesla Roadster? Part of the love of cars is loving diversity. I like big cars, small cars, fast cars, underpowered cars, frugal cars, luxury cars. If my wife didn't put limits on this sort of thing, I would own all kinds of cars for different moods and purposes. ...

The one thing about the Tesla Roadster is that they are claiming to have a battery that can store 50 kWHr and last at least 100,000 miles. That is a big deal if it works out because the EV-1 battery held only about 10 kWHr and was good for about 30,000 miles or less.

I noted this story as well. I would caution that the comments you've quoted are generally not representative of the typical poster at the Truth About Cars. Personally I would categorize the prevailing view over there as a mixture of right-wing libertarianism, cornucopians, extreme PO deniers, and cargo cult technologists.

Wow - the poster hasn't done very much research about Tesla motors ...

The sports car is a proof-of-concept vehicle, for their "White Star" 4-door sedan. Tesla is pretty serious about producing viable electric cars...

(And I get to take a test ride in one in a week or two, too:-)

Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

"And I get to take a test ride in one in a week or two, too:"

Please do keep us posted ... or send me
an invite ;)

Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?

The sports car is a proof-of-concept vehicle, for their "White Star" 4-door sedan. Tesla is pretty serious about producing viable electric cars...

I keep seeing stuff like this but I don't know here its coming from.
AFAIK the White star has yet to be announced.

Have they even completed a single production car yet? What are you going to take a test drive in? How did you get this oppertunity?

Please keep us updated on this.

I won the test ride & 'plant' tour in a raffle at an IEEE dinner last week in the bay area that featured the Tesla roaster. The presentation was a complete dud, but the raffle made up for it :-) The test ride is in one of the Engineering Prototypes - I'll definitely post my impressions after the ride & plant tour.

I have been reading the Tesla blogs, primarily because they are insanely interesting (when compared to a typical corporate blog), but also to keep track of their progress. Since the car is not yet in production, a degree of skepticism is warranted, but reading the blogs provides a level of detail and acumen that is literally stunning. I think the smart money is on this team to be the first to produce a viable mainstream pure electric car that can compete head-to-head with an ICE (ca 2010).

I recommend their blogs & presentations on transportation efficiency - they 'get' peak oil even though they don't specifically talk about it. They start with 'well to wheel' energy efficiency (and 'acre to wheel' energy efficiency), and they are among the most lucid presentations I have seen on the topic.

The Tesla plan is to get the roadster into production in the second half of this year, and they appear to be on track. They have just started getting their Validation prototypes for crash-testing, and finalizing the assembly line, fit & finish issues, etc. They talk about handing the VP's over to auto magazine writers this summer for 'independent' road testing.

This is the best blog entry for the current status of their development process: Validation prototype blog entry

White Star:
They have sited the assembly plant, and are beginning the recruiting for the design. They are planning to re-use the battery, motor and electronics from the roadster in the White Star, so they seem to be right on schedule for ramping up the White Star design and assembly. Once the roadster is in production and 'road proven', they should be able to have a sedan designed relatively quickly.

It is a big step for them to plan to do the assembly themselves (the roadster is built by Lotus Engineering), so there is a higher uncertainty for the White Star date, but I am impressed that they are starting the build this early.

Blog entry on Site Selection for White Star plant

White Star factory site selection press release

Development center for White Star sedan opening

Original Tesla Business plan

Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

Oddly, this one seems to have passed the radar:

"Tehran has reached a decision to end all oil sales in dollars, according to statements by Iran's central bank governor, Ehrabhim Sheibany, in Kuala Lumpur at the end of last month."


No, it has not passed the radar. This announcement was made some time ago and was discussed on this forum over a week ago. Nothing to get excieted about. It will make no difference whatsoever. Well, at least that's my opinion. But as I said then, we shall see.

Ron Patterson

What I see is Euro at $1.35180. How much does that mean? We shall see.

Patience. The real fun won't start until the end of the Yen carry trade.

Well, it did pass mine then. It's a another drop in the bucket, of course.

Question: I have read that we get about 19 gallons of gasoline out of a 42 gallon barrel of oil. Is this true for all weights and flavors of crude, or just light sweet?