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DrumBeat: December 30, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 30, 2006 - 10:05am
Infrastructure is real issue affecting oil prices
Despite the warnings of peak-oil theorists that the world has reached its oil production zenith, we know that crude oil worldwide remains abundant. Reserves have continued to increase and are now 17 per cent higher than in 1994. Production has increased 20 per cent to meet demand.But can higher levels of production be sustained? Worldwide spare capacity is tight and at its lowest levels in 30 years. The real issue impacting crude oil price are the limitations of worldwide petroleum industry infrastructure.
Investments in oil production infrastructure are estimated by the International Energy Agency at $800 billion a year to keep pace with projected worldwide demand. This amounts to a massive $20-trillion investment injection over the next 25 years. And over that period, hundreds of billions more will have to be spent on refining infrastructure to produce the energy products that lubricate world economies.
Explosion In Nuclear Energy Demand Coming
There are a lot of people looking at the supply situation going forward while underestimating future demand. They are very optimistic that mining projects are going to go as planned. We had recent news that Cigar Lake had a problem. There was a flood. There’s a couple million pounds shortfall to most people’s models for at least two years. All because of one mine’s six month delay.
The Worst Could Be Over For High Oil Prices
The economy-wrecking nightmare of skyrocketing oil prices may be coming to an end, with cheaper $50-a-barrel oil becoming the norm through springtime.Energy analysts say that hair-trigger trading - which had threatened in the summer to send crude soaring to $100 a barrel - has become virtually obsolete almost overnight as investors have grown immune to bad news.
Energy czar rethinks rural Alaska's future from home to generator
As energy czar, he is concerned with rethinking energy. Period. Conservation is central to his solution, which includes searching for alternative energy sources such as wind and geothermal. Even nuclear energy isn't out of the question, he said. These are all intended to achieve one thing: weaning villages from diesel - the rustic elixir of rural Alaska.
Motiva shut Port Arthur coker on pipe leak-filing
Peak Oil Passnotes: 2006 - A Year of Confusion
When oil was hitting heights in August we here at Resource Investor mansions predicted that crude would be back at $61 at Christmas. Of course the markets do not open on Christmas Day but when they did on Boxing Day – December 26th - both the Nymex and Brent closed on exactly the same price, $61.10. You can stop applauding, thank you.
India: Razing Farms for Auto Factory Creates Battleground
Just beyond the city limits, a patch of land where an auto factory is planned amid a sprawl of potato fields and rice paddies has become the battleground for the world’s longest-running democratically elected Communist government.
India: Govt. to allow naphtha as fuel to beat crisis
The State government of Andhra Pradesh on Friday decided to allow the four gas-based power producers in the State to use naphtha as fuel to augment generation to meet the power crisis. Naphtha is costlier, but the State will immediately get 280 MW additional power. Naphtha is also easily available.
One of [Tim Flannery's] conclusions is that we are today in an anthropocene period, in which human activity is one of the patterns shaping our climate. What may surprise you is when this era began.
When is a conspiracy theory not a theory?
While GM was mobilizing the Third Reich, the company was also leading a criminal conspiracy to monopolistically undermine mass transit in dozens of American cities that would help addict the United States to oil.
At Michigan State University, students are developing "Energy Crisis," which looks at such issues as the consequences of switching to renewable energy sources, said Brian Winn, co-director of the school's Games for Entertainment and Learning Lab.
Expansion: Energy Industry in 2006
Strong crude oil and natural gas prices flowed through the Permian Basin's oil fields in 2006 as almost $20 billion from the production of crude oil and natural gas -- as of October -- funded significantly higher drilling activity and oil and gas well completions.
Analysis: U.S. nuke energy expands in 2007
The U.S. nuclear power industry ends 2006 optimistic as what has been dubbed a nuclear renaissance is on the horizon and applications for the first new nuclear plants in more than two decades are expected to be filed in 2007. But the head of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is warning stagnant funding from Congress could slow the regulatory process and push back nuclear energy expansion.
Oil prices end 2006 where they started
WASHINGTON - Oil prices settled above $61 a barrel Friday to finish 2006 roughly where they began, marking another tough year for energy consumers and another stellar one for the petroleum industry. It was the fifth straight year in which oil prices were higher than the year before, on average.
Byron King: Strategic Thinking and Strategic Planning
Looking forward, what is the strategy for a Peak Oil world, if not for a post-Peak Oil world? Strategic thinking can look forward and identify a profound problem, as worldwide production of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas hits a peak, bumps along a plateau and then commences an irreversible decline. But what comes next? Exactly. What comes next? The strategic question is, What is the desired end state?
We've added a new presentation titled "Taking Hubbert Home: Moving to Regional Energy Models" (ppt, pdf). In this slideshow we start to wrestle with some of the factors that separate one region's energy future from another's. We also introduce our Road Map to the Dynamic City as a framework in which we can nest discussions about depletion and regional energy planning.
Gazprom-Belarus gas talks resume
A Belarusian official said the ex-Soviet republic was hoping for a new agreement on supplies of Russian gas by a Sunday deadline, but there was no outward sign of progress in the bitter price dispute that reflected worsening relations between the two nations.
Energy priority as Germany assumes G8 presidency
Analyst: Russia has recognized and discovered that the energy weapon is a far more potent weapon than a nuclear device could ever be.
Poll shows Australian PM out of step with public opinion on atomic power
A respected Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian newspaper Saturday found just 35 percent of respondents supported the construction of nuclear power plants in Australia — down from 38 percent when a similar poll was conducted in May.
Senegalese Head Urges Angola to Contribute to Poverty Reduction in Africa
The Angolan authorities and people have been invited, through an appeal made by the Senegalese Head of State, Abdoulaye Wade, to sponsor a plan aimed at securing electricity supply to the whole continent, at reasonable cost.
Seoul to double foreign energy investment in '07
Korea said on Friday it will invest 355 billion won ($381.9 million) in 2007 to secure foreign energy reserves, more than doubling the amount from this year as part of its push to cut dependency on overseas production.The amount is up 115 percent from this year's 165 billion won investment, a statement by the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said.
Korea is pushing to produce 18 percent of the country's oil needs from Korean-owned oil fields by 2013, against 4 percent now.
Bio-fuel project nominated for energy prize
Biogas for Viet Nam, a project designed to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels by harnessing fumes from rotting garbage, is in contention for a 2006 Global Energy Prize.
President Bush Signs Oil, Gas Pipeline Safety Bill into Law
October Ethanol Production Ties All-Time High: Yearly Production, Demand up more than 25 percent
PetroChina '06 Gas Output to Rise 21%, Seen Up 22.7% '07
Fossil Fuel Watch - Meet My Solar Dryer
A year ago my wife was firmly in charge the household laundry. Now, not only am I washing and drying all our clothes, including the sheets, towels, and pillow cases, I find myself looking forward to doing it. What is going on here?
Researchers: Warming may change Amazon
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Global warming could spell the end of the world's largest remaining tropical rain forest, transforming the Amazon into a grassy savanna before end of the century, researchers said Friday.
Southeast Asia rains to disrupt palm oil production
Heavy rains and localised flooding in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, may curb output even as demand for the commodity rises, the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association said on Friday.
Silicon, Solar Power and Corporate Responsibility
Silicon is the second most common mineral element on earth. It has been widely used since antiquity in construction, metals refining and glass manufacturing.More recently, it has become a fundamental element in the production of an extraordinary range of everyday consumer goods and intermediate industrial products, including healthcare Latest News about healthcare items; fabrics; automotive, marine, aerospace engine and electrical components; telecommunications equipment; semiconductors; and solar PV cells.
Despite its abundance, the production of refined metallurgical silicon -- various grades of which are used to manufacture semiconductors and solar PV cells -- is costly, complicated and energy-intensive.
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Stuart (Staniford),
In "The Auto Efficiency Wedge" (quite an excellent post) I posted a comment that got buried waaaay far down in the comments thread and it's something that's kept me wondering so I'm going to ask it here.
In several spots of the post, you note where VMT resumes vigorously after the the oil shocks even though price remains high. My question is how much of the drop in VMT during the '73? and '78? events was attributable to the actual shortage of gasoline? That is to say...did the prices that gasoline reached then have any effect on VMT or was it merely the actual shortage which caused the changes?
Aren't you asking a question about buyer psychology? The VMT drop, and rebound, were based on perceptions of price, future price, US economic position, US strategic position, etc.
We'd need surveys to know what people could say about their motivations at the time, and if you don't trust people to understand their motivations even that won't help ;-)
What I personally remember was a price and scarcity (closed stations, even/odd days) [driven] change in mass psychology. Something we've only seen briefly (post-hurricanes, etc.) since then.
Aren't you asking a question about buyer psychology?
Yes and No. Essentially what I'm trying to figure out is: If the price of gas had multiplied, but supply remained ample...would there have been any appreciable change in VMT during those times. To make that speculation I'd like to know what amount of change actual scarcity had on the times because without fuel, VMT necessarily drops whether anyone would have bought fuel regardless of price or not.
Like Joule I remember "experienced" scarcity, with longer waits at gas stations. My fuzzy memory that it was only bad on a few of the days, with the family sending me the kid to wait in line. I'm sure you've also heard that there was a temptation to "keep the car full." Some have suggested later that the even/odd days made this effect worse.
I really don't know how to answer your question beyond that. If you want to ask me anything else about my 30 year old memories, shoot ...
(BTW, I cleared my cache/cookies in FireFox 2.0 and noticed a strange effect. I see fewer posts at TOD until I log in again.)
I worked at a gas station at the time of the first crisis. I remember the odd/even and closed sunday controls. I remember the line extending around the block. The station eventually put a $10.00 limit to "play fair" and avoid hording.
I remember cancelling long trips where the chance of getting stuck without gas were avoided. Gas was expensive at R.56/P.64 a gallon. Minimum wage was 1.65
The prices of large 4x4 pu's dropped dramatically in the 2nd crisis. The combination of high fuel and high interest on car loans. Truck prices recovered when gas prices dropped.
Based solely on my own experiences during the 1973 and 1978 oil shocks, I would have to say that the inconvenience and uncertainty of obtaining gasoline for one's car had a far greater immediate impact than the increased price of that gas. Many people would have paid double the going price just to get gas at all.
When you have to wait in line for two hours to gas up, you are not going to use that hard-earned gasoline frivolously. I recall that my wife and I even cancelled one holiday visit because the distance was such that we would not have been able to make the round trip on a single tank, and we were afraid of not being able to get gas for the return trip. I'm sure we were not the only ones to curtail travel plans.
Then, of course, there were certain localized economic disruptions caused by the short-term shortages, and these in themselves probably had a damping effect on VMT.
I also recall forming a car pool with several fellow workers who lived in my area. This, however, was disbanded shortly after the crisis was over.
These were all chronic short-term effects, and in themselves do not preclude there being some longer-term, less dramatic effects resulting from price increases alone.
Those gasoline disruptions of '73 and '78 are a good reminder of how easily and how quickly everyday life can turn to shite.
The long term trend of suburbanization (since metasized as exurbanization) remained unchanged during the 1970s (although it slowed down, see VMT growth slowing from 3+% annual increases 1950-1972).
What we saw was, in military/political terms. was a tactical shift in the face of oil shortages; but the US Gov't long term strategic goal of more suburbanization/sprawl remained unchanged.
To those that doubt my characterization of sprawl as a government objective, do a thought experiment. Imagine cities that you know with zero limited access highways in built up areas (the tolled interstate highway bypasses this city with exits every 20 or 30 miles, and a six lane street leading from the sole exit on the edge of town), a handful of six lane streets with red lights and the rest two & four lane streets.
Add in mixed use zoning and mortgages that encourage dense housing near mass transit.
No change to the "free market", just changes in gov't actions.
Sprawl, and rising VMTs, are the result of gov't policies, which went unchanged in the 1970s (and today by and large).
Alan
I'm not so sure I'd view the continuing trend of expanding suburbanization after the 70s oil shocks as the result of deliberate government policy.
I tend to think it was more the result of LACK of government policy coupled with a built-in presumption that suburbanization was the only logical way to absorb the expanding population. Prehaps it was just a matter of government neglect.
Also, don't forget that the in the 1970s most of the major US cities were still experiencing 'white flight' as the result of urban decay, rising crime, and and variety of intractable racial and social problems. For a lower- to middle-class family, living in a major urban area during the 1970s (with memories of the urban riots of the 1960s still fresh) was not the most pleasant experience.
Packing more people into already troubled and highly stressed urban areas simply made no sense, other than from a purely energy consumption standpoint. (I'm still not sure it makes much more sense even today.)
You are exactly right. It is all result of public policy neglect. To complete your point - the other fundamental reason you cite - rising crime and racial problems is also a logical result of government neglect and disinterest. US government has never had the goal of tackling these problems via social policies - its primary goal has always been creating a secure growth-oriented corporate environment. Corporate heads and multimilioneers don't really care about the beggars on the streets as long as their taxes are low.
The resulting fundamental problems in the society, suburban sprawl among them, are starting to show up now - when the growth phase is approaching to an end and the resources to keep poverty apart suddenly become scarce... it is of course an overused comparison but the same thing happened with the Roman Empire when it started running out of slaves. The barbarians came in.
Yes. A screaming sign of deathly conservatism, a defense of an old state of affairs, in function both of some, but only some, corporate and business interests (these in turn being shaped by Gvmt. policy in return for what are basically bribes) and a championing of ancestral ‘core’ values - the right to act as if land use, energy, success and opportunity can never be limited materially or socially changed, even if, today, such myths don’t have the expected effects (eg. social mobility in every old EU country is higher than in the US, poverty in highest in the US amongst developed countries, etc. ...)
It is really quite surprising that the US has turned out be a bastion of conservatism, inflexibility, rampant bureaucracy and ‘big state’ (not in aid paid to the poor), military domination, a kind of war economy - in view of its reputation of pragmatism, inventivity, hard work, egalitarianism, a can-do attitUde.
Not that the EU (Japan, Aus, etc.) is any better, but the US, as an emanation of it, and as the supposed ‘hegemon’ is on the front line both for action (Iraq invasion) and criticism.
IMO the main problem is not so much conservatism but rather what some call "demosclerosis." Few constructive plans can get through our the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, because the veto groups acting on behalf of vested interests are too strong, and what we've had for decades is worsening gridlock. Complicating demosclerosis are the short-sightedness of politicians (dominated by concerns of the upcoming election) and the rational ignorance of voters (rational because one vote is unlikely to affect the outcome of an election).
When republics fail there is usually a Caesar waiting in the wings.
Couls Sprawl also have been a defensive tactic against limited nuclear war? Spreading out the population and industry instead of having dense cities probably made it harder to bomb out USA.
But if that were a major reason every ten garage or so would be a fallout shelter with a meter of concrete in the walls and ceiling.
During the cold war we had such a planning for a threat equaling WW-2 style terror bombing or limited nuclear war. Most new apartment houses in large or strategic towns were built with bomb and fallout shelters. Old city cores were complemented with public shelters, the largest ones held 20 000 people see http://www.bunkertours.co.uk/Stockholm%20CD%20Shelter.htm
New shelters like infilling in light industrial areas and single house areas by tearing down garages and building standardised bomb/fallout shelters with garage doors were made at least untill the late 1980:s.
There were also plans duringthe early cold war to evacuate city population to the countryside. We also had a civil defence organization like the one Dresden would have needed in WW-2. All of it is gone now in the post cold war draw down, all exept some civil defence for the grid and the shelter stock that still is maintained although new houses are no longer required to be built with shelters.
Finland have kept the same type of shelter program running and still build new shelters, they probably also have an intact civil defence system. I am very impressed by the Finns, I wish Sweden were run in such a competent way as Finland. Switzerland probably have more and better shelters then Sweden.
Thinking about wasted cold war investments makes me quite sad, about 200 billion dollars over 40 years to prepair for a war that, thank a deity, never came. Wonder if we will start doing post peak oil and global warming investments with the same determination?
Back to topic, I dont think the threat of nuclear war lead to a change in city planning in Sweden.
During the 1950s sprawl was seen as increasing vulnerability to attack by possibly inaccurate intercontinental ballistic missles. There was a "Scientific American" article (I think from the mid-fifties) that advocated building cities in the form of elongated strips along highways to minimize damage from a massive atomic or thermonuclear attack. This idea went nowhere, along with building bomb shelters in back yards.
What worked to prevent war between the Soviet Union and the U.S. was the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction. Alas, I see no comparably powerful policy to minimize the threats from Peak Oil. The U.S. fiddled and sprawled for more than thirty years after 1973; I think it is now much to late to avoid major pain of transition. But for the twentieth time, I shall repeat: I am not a doomer.
I have to suspect that the growth of the suburbs seen in an accelerated animation would be essentially indistinguishable from the growth of mold (or yeast?) across a fruited plain, with all the planning you would expect from it. It followed the easiest paths, and filled in any spot within reach (of the somewhat-planned Interstate Highway System) where the housing spores could stick to the soil, and that with the glue of cheap petrol, this included of course dusty deserts, high mountain retreats and sodden, marshy coastlines that get swept through every few years with harsh wind and storms..
A bit of a confusing article, but that's quite alright, it's just because the experts contradict each other every second word.
One thing, however, remains: Shell is hurting.
Another "little" matter that I don't see mentioned in the press, is the announcement a few days ago that Shell and the 2 Japanese partners are on the hook for the additional costs. They estimated $10 billion, signed a deal with the Russians, and before the ink was dry, upped that to $20 billion.
If they're paying all of that, they lose, since Gazprom payed just $7.45 bilion for its 50% stake.
Let me guess, it's 0.8 years at today's consumption levels which implies no demand growth, right?
Re: Infrastructure is real issue affecting oil prices
Expect to see more stories like this and more stories along the lines of "If only private companies managed OPEC reserves. . . "
To which I reply: the post 50% of Qt annual decline rate for the Lower 48 and the North Sea (both areas managed by private companies) has been about 2% and 6% respectively.
Since I am in the Oil Bidness in Texas, I am not arguing against private ownership of resources. I am arguing that what drives the oil bidness and the Hubbert Linearization method is the rise and fall of large, old oil fields. Regardless of whether the reserves are managed by Republicans, Socialists, Communists, or Worshipers of Britney Spears, the relentless depletion of giant oil fields trumps economics and politics.
BTW, have I mentioned lately that it is a near certainty that all four of the current super giants are in decline or crashing?
Don't forget the Roger Stern's recent comments about Iran.
and
Report: Iran oil profits could dry up by 2015
... hostility to foreign investment wishing to develop new oil resources could destabilize Iran, Stern said.
... “The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them," Stern said. "Here is one problem that might solve itself.”
500,000 million?
Yep, just another example of the blame game: anybody but ourselves...
I love this: They must have attended the CERA school of misleading propaganda.
How much is up to 10% Is that equal to 3.5%? 333e3*42*365/145e9
What exactly do these numbers mean 12.89 and 8.36? is that the increase expected from each group?
I read that and thought the same, couldn't believe it. Where are these nonsensensical numbers coming from? Any ideas? It reads likes in ten years World oil production will be only 21 million bpd. And CERA says this? That makes them the doomer of the doomers. Will wonders never cease.
Speaking of infrastructure...
There was a commentary in my local paper today, Power Gridlock, concerning the need to address looming problems associated with the electric grid infrastructure especially as it relates to the information technology sector. It was written by two attorneys, one of whom is the former CO Public Utilities Commmission chairman. It seemed to be a very grounded commentary. Perhaps the Peak Oil community is beginning to make headway in steering the debate toward pragmatism and realistic expectations.
A factoid I found quite interesting concerned the amount of electricity internet search engines use:
Several server farms are being located in semi-rural areas along the Columbia River in Washington State. Here is just one example of several.
Hello Yosemite Sam,
Yep, the electricity and resources dedicated to on-line video game playing along with off-line videoplay on Wii, PS3, Xbox 360, etc is mind-boggling. EnergyBulletin had a recent article that compared the gameplay as equivalent to Brazilian electrical usage!
If one examines the current global death rate of early, non-natural deaths--> it is one person every two seconds [approximately 85% of them are children]!!!
http://www.starvation.net/
If every videogame character died at this global rate; if you had to restart gameplay every two seconds-- I think most kids/adults would be too horrified to play videogames.
Just imagine if the money, energy, and time spent on gameplay could be diverted to bicycling, tending relocalized permaculture, and other necessary cultural changes to support the Biosolar Paradigm Shift. We need to start moving 60-75% of the labor force to my hoped-for 150 million wheelbarrows. Otherwise, it will be 150 million rifles and machetes. That won't be fun; it will be worse than any videogame I can imagine.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
One person with a rifle can control twenty or more with wheelbarrows. My guess is that the future hard times will bring far more inequality than we now have.
Those with guns will be citizens--those without peasants or serfs. NB, I don't want this to happen, but it seems to me a far likelier scenario than thousands of people constructively and cooperatively powering down.
Currently private security is one of the most rapidly growing "industries" in the U.S. I expect this trend to continue for many years. Those who rule the rent-a-cops may become our warlords.
Hello Don,
Thxs for responding. I agree--that is why I am primarily a fast-crash doomer [realist], but I will keep emailing, posting, and advocating for change until I cannot afford my computer-- a concerned person has to try and modify people's behavior.
After I abandon the WWWeb: I hope the TOD archives with all the great TODer suggestions, along with all my wild & crazy ideas, will finally be put to good use to optimize our decline. Even if TOD can save one million youngsters by 2100 along with a number of other species--it will have been worth the effort.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, I share your desire to give the young a chance. I've noticed that kids like to pass petitions around, like this one for government attention to peak oil:
http://www.petitiononline.com/PeakOil/petition/html
I would sign it and pass it to my email address book, but it's for the UK.
Leanan, could you maybe set up such a petition for the US and put it on the TOD homepage links list? I think it would be a tool for exposing a lot of the unaware public to PO (people will FWD to their friends).
Errol
Bob, I share your desire to give the young a chance.
But american kids ARE given a "chance", much better than rifles and machetes : Oklahoma Full Auto Shoot
America! The more I know it the more I LOVE it, from a distance...
If you think that way it will happen that way.
If you want to talk about guns it's because you basically like guns and want to see them used.
You get the future you deserve.
It's usually just wanking from people who would be as helpless as anyone in a real war of all against all.
"You get the future you deserve."
Does that apply to the future of people living in Darfur or Zimbabwe?
Boy do I disagree, I think you have to look at human struggles everywhere. Violence is not uncommon. Does anyone have the link to the blog by the guy who lived during the Argentine economic meltdown?
Old Hippie - you need to read the above. very very informative IMHO
Isn't a gigawatt a unit of the rate of power consumption, not total electrical energy consumed? Do these authors know their units?
Of course technology doesn't stand still.
and i'll tell you the first thing they do with the savings.
they use it to buy more of them considering it a hedge against future surges in load while at the same time use more electricity then before.
What optimism looks like...
See:
http://www.forbes.com/2002/08/01/0801soapbox.html
for Forbes scoop on this company, Altair Nanotech. They don't think much of it. It would be great if it worked, but I don't think anyone has seen their SUV move yet.
I guess since MIT had a similar breakthrough, Forbes should dismiss them too, right? What about Phoenix Motorcars? What about Honda, Toyota, and the many European EVs? Get real people. The future is in EVs, and unfortunately it will probably take being run over by one before you begin to realize it! (chortle)
And I'll point it out again. You people are outrageous in your selective backing of MSM. When it goes lock-step with your own opinions, you tout them as facts. When they go against your opinions, you decry them as false and misleading.
Insane.
Hothgor, Altair Nanotech was once a moribund Canadian gold mining company with a listing on the Vancouver exchange. Maybe, they've straightened up and are flying right, but the press releases of any company that moves to Las Vegas and changes its name twice should still be viewed with a lot of scepticism.
True, but Altair have shipped some actual batteries to Phoenix Motorcars, and Phoenix say they are very happy with them. They could still run out of money, but at least they have shipped a product unlike most of the other wonder-battery companies.
From their own production or badge enginered?
As far as I can tell from news reports, it's their own production. If it wasn't, I guess they would be keeping that pretty quiet. I think it was only 10 batteries, so they are clearly not in MP yet. It seems to be an improved lithium-ion device, nothing revolutionary, so they may have a chance.
What I find interesting from my European point of view, is the amount of activity in the hybrid/EV market when gas prices in the US are still relatively cheap by Euro standards. Paradoxically, because we have high taxes on gasoline we are insulated from underlying prices rises, and have less incentive to innovate.
OK let’s say we have a 1500-pound vehicle and can travel 250 miles at 50 MPH. Can it attain 50 MPH with a 20 HP motor? 20 HP is a continuos 15,000-watt power drain. For a battery draw of 15000 watts for 5 hours is 75 Kwh’s. To charge the battery to a 75 Kwh level in 1 hour requires a charging source of 75,000 watts. To do it in 10 minutes requires a 450,000 watt charging source. With a 220-volt source that would require a 2,000 amp current draw, and that is with no charge or discharge losses. My residential Xformer is only rated at about 200 amps. . Just for starters on a do it yourself charge, any 10 milly ohm connection resistance would generate 20 watts of heat. Now I don’t know what the internal resistance of the battery is but if it is approaching zero you have a potential bomb on your vehicle.
I don't think it is meant to be recharged at home at such rates. There is no residential electrical system which is able to supply 450KWt-s of power, maybe 10KWt at most is a better bet. I think it assumes dedicated high power recharging stations for interstate travel.
Exactly! No one is going to whip home to recharge their vehicle while on break or going to a grocery store. They will recharge them on the road at dedicated filling stations. I can only imagine the horror the doomers will face when confronted with tens of thousands of convenience stores all equipped with electric chargers!
People are going to hang out getting their cars charged - sounds like a plan to improve America's uneconomic wastefulness, as parking lot time is not very efficiently used to generate extra revenue or consume resources.
Of course, by having charging stations at home and spread throughout the nation, you increase the technical challenges on the infrastructure, not make it simpler. Especially in terms of system peak - nights are when underused capacity to utilize can be easily found, not during business hours. Which is fine - as some people are actually starting to learn, wind is not a simple way to generate power - but if you started building such a system 10 or 15 years ago, most of the problems can be dealt with - as long as they include realistic finite limits, of course.
But unless you wish to argue that a neighborhood will have a central charging area, able to accomodate some number of cars, and the owners will then walk/bicycle to their home, in any weather, then your model requires a vast upgrade to the infrastructure, or a major reduction in the number of vehicles driven regularly.
Of course, there already exists an electrical vehicle and its infrastructure, still in place in many cities and countries - it is called something like rail, the subway, a tram. But that EV doesn't fit too well into keeping America's tomorrow looking like today. There was even an interesting TOD article on exactly that point not too long ago.
Substitution is not really change - substitution is a way to handle inevitable change with as little adaptation as possible. And often it fails, as the substitute's own flaws become clear.
The suburbs in North America face more challenges into the future of peak oil than merely whether the major form of mobility in a decade is a multiwheel vehicle powered by electricity, internal combustion, or other technology/combination.
and if 10 cars want to recharge at one time you could wait in line for 1 hr 40 min of course you could have 10 giant plug ins 10x2000 amps shit you have a potential chernoble at your local BP
Exactly no one is going to whip home because at a 10 Kw rate it will require 7.5 hours @220 volts and 45 Amps.
10 kW easy in the micro scale in Sweden since almost all services are three phase, add a 16A 400V outlet some cable, a ground fault circuit breaker, fuses and some work.
But every 100 000 cars recharging at the same time adds a GW to the grid load. Its lucky large parts of our grid is built to handle resistive home heating, but more redundancy and some uprating is prudent and every about 100 car garage and up would need its own transformer.
One of my favorite ideas is to prematurely mass install 10 kW outlets, its not especially expensive as oil replacements go and could shave a few years of the time for a true market introduction. Its also a lot cheaper to strenghten the grid while reinvesting worn out equipment then doing it later.
Most of the evening out of the grid load could be handed by houerly rates and installation of communication equipment and control electronics but not needing any of this for the first 10% or so of the car fleet lowers the consumer investment cost and gives confidence in the system.
Over here the problem hours would become cold and dark winter mornings when electric heating runs a lot, the streetlighting is on, all industry is running and lots of people would connect their plug in hybrid after arriving at work while others have block heaters and trickle charging running and late sleepers make breakfast. Those mornings would probably require large parking lots to disconnect from the grid.
How do electric vehicles do during your Swedish winters? Here in Minnesota I do not think pure electrics will catch on until they can function at minus forty degrees--and function well at say minus twenty degrees Celsius.
A plug-in hybrid can get around this problem of cold weather, and I imagine there are tricks for keeping batteries warm with maybe a little tiny short circuit or something like that.
Here is a funny but true story: Plug-in block heaters used to be very popular in Minnesota, and all winter we drove around with a few inches of cord hanging out in front of the grill of the car. Many in Minnesota drive down to Florida in the winter, and Floridians thought we had electric cars, because none of them had ever heard of block heaters. Nowadays with computer-controlled fuel injection engines fewer people use the block heaters, but they are nice to have during extreme cold.
I have nothing against EV's. I am simply pointing out that much infrastructure and technology remains to be solved. I actually go to buy groceries in an electric golf cart and go fishing in an electric powered pontoon boat (3HP) 48volts Briggs and Stratton. 3 hours at 3MPH 1hour at 7 MPH. 4 deep cycle 12 V batteries. BTW at 3 Knt's you can barely hear the motor, no gas or oil smell. Cold beer in the evening on a glassy lake, quite breeze, Nothing like it.
yes, thank you. i have been looking at electric powered scooters. really they are pretty inexpensive. and a year from now i may get serious about buying one, but currently on seasonal lay off (from my day job) , mostly i walk where i need to go (store =2.5 mi rt,p.o. 2.5mi, bank 3.5mi ). my doct likes that idea .
Not to throw icewater on hothgor but how are we going to supply current residential electrical usage, potential increases because of nat gas supply problems, and have the capacity to charge cars too?
I think you are overly optimistic. We will not be driving personal cars unless you are wealthy. Electric trains (mass transit) yes - cars very unlikely, at least to the extent that we do today, and anything substantially less than that will set our economy on it's rear.
We in the US just can't accept that we will not have (cheap)individual transport. Our complete society was built around this temporary reality. Prices for energy will sort out our future for us like it or not.
I think we need to get real about (cheap)personal transportation - it was nice while it lasted. Further investments in this "lifestyle" are doomed to long term failure. EV's are a dying grab of a dying industry - the promiss of cheap personal transport. People want it to continue - party on!
I have been keeping a close eye on N Amer NG production and consumption. IMO NG will have a greater impact on the US economy than oil, and sooner. I also believe that 2007 will be a bell ringer attention getter for NA NG.
US electrical NG use was up 400 billion Cft 05 over 04 and July & August combined was up 150 billion Cft 06 over 05. So far EIA only posted thru Sept. That has to have an impact on next summers storage build.
The DOE already did a study where they showed that 84% of all gasoline use in the US could be substituted with electricity and we wouldn't have to build ANY new power plants as long as they have 'smart' recharger's that work only during off and mid peak times.
Regardless, its still far less polluting to power these EVs with all coal fired power plants then it is to continue burning fossil fuels in the ICE.
Hothgor, 42% of OR's electricity comes from hydro. I could ask but I will bet that "off peak" means spilling water at night, and not shutting down nat. gas fired generators along the columbia river. - Running hydro at night will deplete hydro's "pondage" and then you will need to replace that with something else, gas to electricity is not the best use of gas - Burn more coal? We already have air quality issues in the columbia river gorge. They need to put mercury scrubbers into Boardman CFPP but were let off the hook. So lets just poison ourselves faster by charging our little coal fired electric cars too - good grief. Hell lets even take the water we waste on saving the salmon and use that too. Hell yea! Screw the salmon WE NEED TO DRIVE.
I think you are overly optimistic in your assumptions.
dipchip,
Combine increased use for electrical power and our "need" for fuel from tar sands (a big user of gas) we are indeed in "the zone". We get gas in OR from Canada in the summer, store it underground, and pump it back out during the winter...and the drilling rigs leaving the gulf...? I feel that you are correct and that we are soon going to have that "Bambi in the headlights look" on our faces, then the panic will start to hit the MSM as the masses start waking up. (Hey WTF! Nobody ever told me about this...)
Maybe Putin will send a line over the north pole to Alaska and we can try to buy some gas from him - the price only doubles every year or so. Maybe that would be a bad idea, Putin has big balls, he might want to fly in airforce one or sleep in the Lincoln bedroom with Mrs. Bush.
I've been checking the performance of lightweight cars for possible electric applications. The German Loremo diesel prototype is specced to reach 100 mph on a 20 HP engine. That's mostly frontal area drag, but the car has a cD of 0.20 so it can be improved as an intake-free electric. While cutting the speed to 50 mph would cut 75% of the frontal area drag, other sources of drag would not fall as much. The Volkswagen One-Liter, meant to pass crash tests, could reach 77 mph on its 8.5 HP diesel, having less frontal area but less impressive cD.
But will all people really demand 250 miles of range before even buying any electric car? Will they demand that "filling stations" give them 250 miles, or just enough to get them home to charge more cheaply overnight? I live 7 miles from my job. Even if I got stuck in traffic, an electric uses very little power when it's just crawling.
I have two questions for TODers. I have observed in the Kansas City area (both on the Missouri and Kansas side) many BP gas stations closing in the last month or so. Most were located directly across the street from other stations, so I can understand why they might not be getting all the business, but it's a bit unusual to see a major petroleum company closing stations.
So, here's the questions I have for everyone:
- Are other people seeing BP gas stations closing in their area?
- Does anyone know why BP is closing stations?
On a side note, last year Total closed all its stations in the US. Is this a trend with foreign petro companies in the US?
I was watching Spike Lee's "When The Levees Broke" and thinking about Coast 2050. In the late '90s environmentalists had finally convinced someone at the Army Corps of Engineers that it was going about Mississippi River flood control all wrong, that it had created a series of short-term fixes that might go disastrously bad. Coast 2050 was the Army's radical alternative to rebuild the wetlands and let them do the job at the cost of occasional smaller floods, and 20 billion bucks. No one in the government had the guts to accept this. A few years later the Army came up with some short-term fixes that, unlike Coast 2050, might have been fast enough to make a difference with Katrina. But that was after 9/11, and Bush had defined national security and its budget entirely in terms of Moslem countries with oil. So no short-term fix.
Maybe we have the resources to deal with Peak Oil and Global Warming, but when are we going to have the will to use them? It's been 1 1/2 years since Katrina, and I haven't heard of anything close to the scale of Coast 2050. We finally implemented the short-term fixes instead.
It seems that even after a big fossil-fuel based catastrophe in the near future, we will only be chastened enough to finally vote in the short-term fixes, not the fundamental changes. I'm not doubting the optimists at this site that we have the means for those changes. But New Orleans is now denuded of all its natural protections, and carpetbaggers are trying to steal the 9th Ward from its natives as if they think white yuppies will actually build new houses there, and they may be right. Why should I believe that the rest of the country will be any different?
Snake oil sells. Prudence, responsibility, forethought do not sell.
Cheap con men are running this country and most of the rubes seem to like it that way.
"Prudence, responsibility, forethought do not sell."
Amen, brother!
We have devolved into a society of perpetual crisis management. IMHO, this is the primary reason we are likely to descend into chaos. Not because ff depletion will dictate collapse but owing to astounding apathy and a culture of hedonism.
Crisis management is the modus operandi for the PTB, witness the new terminology coming from the State Dept., Pentagon, and Condi such as "constructive chaos" and "creative destruction" to describe the forces of violence and bloodshed in the Middle East expected to give birth to a reconstructed and more docile region. Obviously the "shock and awe" program for Iraq was just the beginning.
Apparently, this management style is not reserved for foreign lands. In a recent interview of Robert Pastor, head cheerleader for the North American Union, Pastor remarked that an ideal time to implement plans for the new union was following the onset of a major new crisis. Talk about a shotgun wedding!
follow the money the debt has increased $3 trillion in the last 6 yrs. no looting of the treasury going on here
All the following are just different ways of saying what Hubbert said 50 years ago:
* Infrastructure is the real issue affecting oil price.
* Enhanced recovery will unleash billions of barrels, if we will just make the investments necessary.
* There's plenty of oil yet to be discovered, but it's mostly in deep water and the arctic where production costs are high.
* Oil would be much cheaper if it weren't for geopolitical tensions.
* EROI for oil production is falling.
"Political power flows from the barrel of a gun." — Mao Zedong
"Political power flows from the barrel." — Bob G
You make a good point about infrastructure and geopolitics.
I understand the focus of some on the strictly "geologic peak" (or whatever it might be called): Peak Production inspite of perfect "above ground" conditions with the best available technology due to purely geologic limitations.
But Production is a system run by homo sap. The role of geopolitics, infrastructure, technological limitations, weather, cost over-runs and project delays, etc will all end up playing a role in the Peak Production we actually experience(d).
Woulda, coulda, shoulda will be CERA's line because they already qualified their prOJctioNz by saying "all bets are off if 'above ground' factors intervene in our perfect test-tube world."
I'd like to see a thread tomorrow or Monday on predictions for 2007. What will happen with oil production? Prices? How about the broader public and media perception of the Peak Oil issue: will it be the next big thing that everyone's worried about? or yesterday's news, a failed apocalypse? People here seem pretty sure of themselves most of the time, let's get our predictions down and we can check at the end of the year to see how we all did.
I've already given my Fearless Forecasts, and I stand 100% behind them.
What I'd like to see is a detailed list of people's New Year's Resolutions; I've already posted mine.
Before I could make a prediction about future energy consumption, I'd have to see the big test of the world's current economic structure: can countries insulate themselves from an American debt collapse? The US ruined the global economy with its 1929 asset collapse when it had far less power and presence abroad. I can see China desperately trying to diversify to protect itself from both American collapse and possible American military blackmail, but the global capitalist elite seems to prefer Wall Street's IOUs to China's cold, hard dollars.
If we really 1929 it this time and take everybody down with us, we will buy ourselves years to deal with Peak Oil and Global Warming. However, the consequences for ordinary people will be very similar to those other disasters, and many will die. The extra time will be the margin for the world to either choose to come together and work on a New Deal to rebuild the energy system properly, or for its individual nations to turn to Fascism, so that when recovery pushes fossil fuel reserves again they will be ready to wage resource wars.
If China has sufficiently diversified, then it will continue growth in the 5% or higher range even as it must write off much of our debt. China will be the new engine of growth, with Russia playing off the EU and China to bid up energy prices and Central Asia becoming the new Silk Road that a Chinese minister recently predicted. In this case, energy consumption will keep growing too rapidly, but as the crisis deepens there will be relatively sane governments that might work together on a solution. Not likely to be fast enough, though.
Ironically, I think the odds for survival are better with the 1929 scenario (50-50) than the muddling-thru one (less than 20%).
Economic transportation data seem to point to increased oil consumption in the US and even the developing world.
1. Boeing will build nearly 1000 planes this year and set a record for cargo planes produced. This was quoted from Business Week article which predicts air cargo to grow by 6.4% per year for the next decade while passenger air travel grows by 4.5% per year.
2. Automobile ownership is climbing fast in China and other developing countries. Ten years ago China had less than 10 million cars; now the total is 30 million. Auto ownership in Mexico is growing by 15% per year. Highways are being built in China at a rate of thousands of miles per year. They hope to have a network of 18,000 miles of high capacity limited access highways by 2010.
3. Airport expansion is common in cities across the US and the developing world. Denver, the nation's largest airport has an expansion plan to increase gate capacity by about 10% for a cost of $160 million. It currently handles 50,000+ passengers per day. Even Indianapolis, Indiana is expanding its meager airport in hopes of unending air travel growth. China is expanding several airports to handle the anticipated air travel growth, especially in hopes of continued increases in tourism beyond the 2008 Olympic games.
Where will the energy come from for growth in air travel of 55% over the next decade? Maybe CERA has the answer.
Do you have a link on a source for those stats? I'm not disputing, I just would like to see your information sources.
Yes, but you have to search the sites.
1. go to www.businessweek.com/index then search for "The Secret Weapon at Boeing". article may require registration to read.
2. from chinese english newpaper some time ago, but 2005 article predicted 30 mil cars by end of this year, was twenty something million in 2004. Auto ownership growing by over 3 million cars per year in China. Can't remember link for Mexican car ownership increase but was posted on energybulletin.net maybe six months ago.
3. from DenverPost.com/business/ci_4843667. May require registration (free) to get access to the article. I have been to Indy airport to see great expansion in person, including huge highway project (largely for better airport access) just completed at end of 2005.
thanks very much.