i hope you can update your crude price quote soon this is where i look for up to date quotes

Hello TODers,

Happy Holidays to all and best wishes for 2007. Congratulations to SuperG and the rest of the management on the transition to the new site.

Earlier this month, there was a thread about NG supplies. I believe that one of the observations was that NG supplies (available for use) in North America would be half of what they are today by 2010. Is the expectation that the price of NG for heating / cooking / electrical generation will be at least double what it is today by 2010?

Well, let's see, Burgan is outta here and Iran is drying up fast. But Leonardo Maugeri wants no piece of it in Newsweek's first 2007 issue:

What lies below

The verdict of the new catastrophists may appear more convincing because they use statistical and probability models that appear to penetrate the mysteries of our planet's subsoil. In fact, they do no such thing. In sum, what little is known about the world's underground resources justifies a positive view of the future.

Historically, high oil prices have always led to booming investment and a slowdown in consumption, and this is exactly what we are seeing today. Investors are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into energy, from conventional oil to unconventional oil (tar sands, shale oil) to all its alternatives, from natural gas to biofuels and liquefied coal. In other words, high prices are not necessarily bad news for the global economy, because they are boosting innovation and efficiency while encouraging conservation.

Or try this one on for size:

The reason we have seen so many bad guesstimates is that even the most advanced technology can't tell us how much crude the Earth holds.

So, Leonardo, what exactly is it that makes you so sure thare's all this oil left? You just said yourself that you can't make any such prediction. Or would you like to imply that "bad guesstimates" are only made by those who suspect there may NOT be a glut of supply left?

You don't really need my help, or anybody else's, to make yourself look ridiculous, do you?

I see you're "Group Senior Vice President for Corporate Strategies and Planning for the Italian energy company ENI". Good luck with that, Italy.

The Russians are learning, it seems, but I still wonder what is going on in the background.

Belarus has generally been considered a Russian satellite, and generally, Russian moves in terms of using its gas supplies has been seen as political pressure against regions that seemed to be leaving Russian influence.

Obviously, the prices paid by the old Soviet republics were far below market rates, and raising the rates to comparable Western European levels is certainly understandable in terms of profit alone.

On the other hand, what if the Russians are engaging in demand destruction? In the end, areas like Armenia, Georgia, the Ukraine, Belarus, all essentially border on Russia, which is enough of an advantage to ensure long term Russian influence, irrespective of Cheney's fantasies.

Western Europe is rich and advanced, and the Russians can go shopping - whether for influence (see Schröder), or property (see London), or cars (see Stuttgart) - in exchange for energy.

But the former Soviet republics don't really offer that much, and if Russian gas production is falling faster than anticipated (as if that is a surprise), this may be a calculated decision to go and apply the export land model from the export land perspective.

Further, the weather has been so warm till now, that quite honestly, the stored Western European gas may actually have been intended for other purposes, like a normal fall/early winter, instead of the warmest in recorded history, but now that it is just sitting around, so to speak, why not use it for some longer term purpose?

Simple prediction - Gazprom has an intended target reduction/profit margin, and Belarus will not face the same difficult situation that the Ukraine did. At least in theory - this time, Russia is dealing with a putative friend, not a breakaway threat like the Ukraine or Georgia.

Peak is measured by what comes out of the pipeline, and maybe all those big plans based on Russian energy are about to meet reality.

Ah, time to indulge in the sort of thing which shows how the Internet is replacing the previous generation's media certainties.

Yes - pundit stupidity quotes.

Novak-
'Panicky captains of industry have themselves largely to blame for failing to respond to the environmentalists' well-financed propaganda operation. One government official says "industry appears utterly helpless and utterly clueless as to how to respond."

'(E)nvironmentalists' well-financed propaganda operation?' My heart bleeds for the paltry 40 billion or so in ExxonMobil profits, and their completely underfunded anti-propaganda operation.

But luckily, 'None of this necessarily means climate change will become law during the next two years, with President Bush wielding his veto pen if any bill escapes the Senate's gridlock.' See, Bush can merely veto climate change using his veto pen - and yes, that is a sentence that the Post actually allowed to appear on its web site.

And it gets even better -
'Ultimate salvation from U.S. self-destructive behavior may come from the real world. Most European Union countries, suffering higher energy costs and constraints on growth imposed by the Kyoto pact, cannot meet that treaty's requirements for emission levels. Furthermore, China is on pace to exceed U.S. emissions by 2010, meaning that unilateral U.S. carbon controls will have little impact on global emissions while driving American jobs to China.' See, the ultimate salvation of the U.S. being forced to actually decrease carbon emissions will come because others cannot reduce their emissions either. Yes, 'salvation' from 'self-destructive behavior' means more carbon in the Earth's atmosphere, not less.

-------------------------

And here is the guru of globalization writing - 'No more. We reached a tipping point this year - where living, acting, designing, investing and manufacturing green came to be understood by a critical mass of citizens, entrepreneurs and officials as the most patriotic, capitalistic, geopolitical, healthy and competitive thing they could do. Hence my own motto: "Green is the new red, white and blue."'

And what makes green so fashionable?

'Wal-Mart has opened two green stores where it is experimenting with alternative building materials, lighting, power systems and designs, the best of which it plans to spread to all its outlets.'

Amazing - Walmart might even go as far as to actually practice a number of mundane German concepts, but will they stop selling cheap, low quality plastic products made by semi-slaves in China and sent by ship, rail, and truck to be bought by car driving exurban/suburban customers (yes, I know the real word is 'consumer,' but really, what a disgusting terms)?

To continue in Friedman's green colored world -
'"When I started having people stop me in the aisles and say, 'How do I do that?' or 'Can I do that?' that's when we really started realizing that this isn't just a small thing, this can be really large and can be very rewarding to the planet," store manager Brent Allen said.

Hey, the more energy-saving bulbs Wal-Mart sells, the more innovation it triggers, the more prices go down. That's how you get scale. And scale is everything if you want to change the world, but to achieve scale you have to make sure that green energy sources - biofuels, clean coal, and solar, wind and nuclear power - can be delivered as cheaply as oil, gas and dirty coal.'

See, 'scale is everything if you want to change the world' - just do things the same way, that is burn carbon, split atoms, and sell preprocessed frozen food and disposable consumer goods that are shipped thousands of miles, to customers that drive to the store, and green becomes the new red, white, and blue.

And since this sort of writing seems to reflect the consensus of those actually making broad reaching decisions, America is going to have a hard time when reality comes knocking, it really is.

Seattle Area looks at $17 billion Urban Rail Investment

Note: Worth $11 billion in 2006 $
----------------
Sound Transit edged closer Thursday to asking voters to approve as much as $17 billion next fall to expand its rail and bus systems.

Agency board members agreed Thursday to decide Jan. 11 whether to hold public hearings on a sweeping package of improvements that could appear on next November's ballot. Extensions of the light-rail system from the University of Washington to Lynnwood, south from Sea-Tac Airport to Fife and east to Bellevue as well as upgrades in regional bus service are all included in the proposal so far.

The package, if approved by voters, would cost each household in the agency's three-county territory an average of $125 more per year in sales tax until well after the middle of the century. The sales tax would be increased 0.5 of a cent, or 5 cents on a $10 purchase.

The rail system, now under construction between Seattle and Sea-Tac Airport for $2.6 billion, could be extended as far as Tacoma and Redmond if financing allows. The expansion would be completed by 2027, with financing costs to continue for 30 years after that.

Getting the rail system as far as Redmond could depend on whether it's put in a tunnel in downtown Bellevue, as officials in that city want.

"It's important that we get light rail as far as we can," said Sound Transit board member Mark Olson.

The package, drafted by Sound Transit officials over several months, would increase dramatically the size of the rail system, adding at least 42 miles of line. A streetcar would be extended from downtown Seattle to Capitol Hill, substituting for a light-rail extension that was shelved owing to cost and risk.

Rapid bus service would be added on Interstate 405, and parking and other improvements would be made for current Sounder rail service.

The light-rail extension would include pushing that system to Northgate by 2018; that segment was viewed as a possibility 10 years ago when voters approved the initial part of the system.

The expansion would be financed by $7.4 billion in new taxes between 2008 and 2027, based on 2006 dollars. In current cash values, the system would cost more than $11 billion, but the total could come to about $17 billion based on "year-of-expenditure" outlays that account for inflation, according to Sound Transit finance director Brian McCartan...

Complete article at

http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/index.asp?layout=articleXml&xmlId=54...

Best Hopes,

Alan

Another Nigerian blast. Sometimes 50 die. Sometimes 1000. A good summary of what is behind them from CNN.

expat-

But energy is a political question, and to avoid investigating this aspect, with as many facts as possible, would be mistaken.

Perhaps the following scenario will help explain events and predict others.

These are core facts of the Petrogame that drive events:

Consider: A desert chieftan in the 1930's discovers that his territory has tons and tons of gold laying in countless veins just 100 meters under the sand. Almost unbelievably easy to access it merely with big shovels. As such desirable treasure is impossible to exploit secretly, what would be the single, over-riding consideration dominating his thoughts...from the moment he verified the fact of that gold?

Clearly his next-tentflap neighbors will be at once dazzled and obsessed with plans to make him the main course for their dinner .
As the lucky chieftan, he has certainty that he must obtain an overwhelming military force to squash the appetite of neighbors, before their plans mature and overwhelm him. All his attention goes to securing both the new wealth and his ownership of it.

Here lay apparent contradictions. Until late 1970's, Saudi Arabia had no real military forces at all ! No Army...No Navy...No Air Force...Only police and internal security forces. That defies sensibility because the chieftan in the late 1930s, and surely by 1941, had Standard Oil engineers verify the data demonstrating that huge pools of oil were in fact there. Knock a pipe into the sand, screw on a valve, make lots of new friends. Does not even need a pump.

It is impossible that there was no huge, military force immediately established to protect those deposits. But there was none...or was there?

There had to be, but it was hiddden. A powerful partner was there. There was a quid-pro-quo created where each partner held exquisitely equal leverage. If either party renegged, the other could cause disaster. The key to workability was the equal leverage which ensures durability of the arrangement.

The Oil Powers [dominated first by Standard and soon RoyalDutchShell and later BP ] were able to guarantee that the now RoyalChieftanFamily stayed on the Royal Throne, in exchange [1] for the Chieftan depositing his oil revenue monie$ into the Oil Power's banks; and equally strategically, [2] the Oil Powers led by Standard would retain overriding control of wholesale and retail distribution policy to extent of who would/would not receive the ultimate use of the petro products [oil and gas] and at what terms.

What was the OilPowers' guarantee? The US Military was [somehow under the control of The Standard] to be made available to guarantee continuity of the Royal Throne as long as the Throne deposits the bulk of their revenue$ in OilPowers, banks and does not withdraw said deposits; and obeys any production/distribution/marketing directions. Oil became denominated in US Dollars. As for the Throne's leverage, just their mere hint that $ deposits would be withheld or withdrawn would undermine credibility of banking systems. As the magnitude of flowing oil rose, the partners next agreed the USDollar would be the exclusive trade-currency. Each party had equal and credible leverage to enforce its position.
That is what happened in Saudi Arabia.

"Oil Powers" identities change over time, but are essentially Anglo-American. "Oil Powers" are not companies; they are individuals with similar goals who use oil/gas as a tool to enable strategy.

Petro-oleum = Rock Oil. Until 1859, it was thought to exist only as slow seepage from inside rock, in non-commercial quantities. By 1859 petroleum was discovered to exist in underground pools. This was quickly recognized by some as the ultimate source of Heat/Light/Power [HLP], in terms of cost, quality and efficiency.

Silliman at Yale University had done the first major chemical analysis of crude oil within months of its being found to exist in commercial quantities. Note the first use for petroleum, in commercial quantities, was lamp-oil for light [nearly white, non-smoking, portable and cheap] and the demand was worldwide, overwhelming even from Asia. Demand for light was later followed by demand as lubricant. Still later as fuel for steam production [e.g. ships]; later still as source fuel for combustion [gasoline] engines, space heating and electrical generation.

Wherever oil was made available, it could easily dominate as the dominate source of HLP demand. Thus he who controlled its distribution could control whoever needed it...or whatever nation needed it. You want Heat? You want Light? You want Power? Either be compliant or be coldly in darkness and powerless.

A super tool to compel cooperation from any ruler. Or to find another who will. Control the ruler or create the new ruler, and let the ruler control the population. Best to select a Royal Family, as that means a predictable line of succession. The plan is old, but the plan has had many successes.

Early on, Standard's Rockefeller and Royal Dutch' Dietermann and the English Crown understood all of this. [England's Shell and RoyalDutch merged about 1900.] *

It is critical to include the fact that the OIL-game was merged with the BANKING-game. * *

As with Saudi Arabia, the similar deals made with Kuwait and other ruling-family-type governments. He who partners with the family controls the oil/gas as long as that family stays on the throne.
The deals all involve Standard [American] and Royal Dutch/BP [Anglo-] et al, who have similar, effective, covert control over their respective governments' forces [military and/or other contributions to the required force] to guarantee longevity of the ruler's status and similar production/distribution/marketing rights from the ruler.

So explains the saga of Iran's Shah. Democraticly booted out in early 1950's, quickly reinstalled by Anglo-American force, then booted again 25 years later. No more Royal Line = end of deal = OilPowers attempt in ANY WAY to stop/ruin any oil production/marketing they cannot control.

So explains the saga of Saddam. Non-cooperating and no Royal Line.
So explains the saga of Kuwait when Saddam briefly took over. Who reacted very forcefully to put the Sabah family back on the Royal Throne? You can bet the Saud family was watching nervously to see if, in fact, Standard et al would make good the guarantee; after all, the Saud clan held the same guarantee with the same partner.
The Saud clan breathed easy when Kuwait's Sabah family was returned to their throne [followed byabrupt end of military operation].

So explains some of the Czar's troubles. The Czar would not relinquish control of Russian oil {e.g. Baku} which really crimped Rockefeller's [Standard] and Dietermann's [Royal Dutch/EnglishShell] world-monopoly dream, and not-so-oddly, WW I did not end in Russia until 1922/1923; then government that followed the Czar was not ruling-family type, thus no predictable line of succession.

WW 1 ? Have a look at the territory of the Ottoman Empire at that time. Then, locate the known oil resources within that perimeter, factor in England's Lawrence of Arabia and promise of self-government to their Arabian allies for expelling the Ottoman rulers. Then watch what happened when the the Ottoman armies were expelled.

WW 2 ? Surely Krupp, I. G. Farben et al in oil-less Germany knew well the prize of Baku/Caspian. There's an old bio of Dietermann who, in 1920's, was quoted in English newsmedia, claiming that the resources of Russia would be the "greatest commercial prize in history", and that "Baku is the finger that points East" as he promoted another war. But the world depression from 1930 delayed the acquisitive Dietermann's-and-others' plan to jointly invade Russia.

So explains the saga of Vietnam. Offshore, oil/gas deposits were surmised because the geography fit the oil industry's working model of Continental Shelf theory [just GOOGLE "vietnam + oil" to see who/what is happening post-1975] but,after the French left, there was no possibility to control a petroleum industry. And certainly no ruling family after failed attempt to create a Diem clan. The thought of oil being independently developed and marketed was indee a threat.

So explains the saga of all non-ruling-family-type governments' attempts to develop and market their oil. In the case of Mexico, albeit without a ruling-famly, Marines were sent into Veracruz and the oligarchs coalesced to rule extended-family-style since then; and being right on US border facilitates control. Those oligarchs who did not agree were visited by unlucky events.

So explains the saga everywhere a ruling-family has oil that can be produced and potentially marketed.

So explains a lot of other observations from circa 1880 to present time.

So explains why the petrogame of "I hold you by your heat/light/power arteries" is getting interestinger and interestinger. And wilder.

So explains the addiction. Oil addiction was created by low-cost, high quality, efficient and readily available fuel supply. The addiction was/is maintained by intense suppression of alternative HLP sources [e.g. by legislation; denial of funding; misdirecting R&D], along with theOilPowers closely monitoring all aspects of their game.

The petrogame is the means to World Domination by a small group who coincidently share similar goals.

Only petroleum [as oil and gas] can be harnessed in a way that precludes unwanted-others from joining the group.

No other HLP resource can be globally monopolized; or exists in sufficient quantity. The others are merely technology based, and technology cannot be monopolized. [E.g.-- a nuclear club to monopolize enrichment/extraction is a work-in-progress, but has only short-term and spotty workability that can be bypassed. Also there are local monopolies, such as control of hydro-power, that are not scaleable to global scope. As for coal, technology has not resolved enormous pollution aspects, and coal has potential only to crimp the petrogame.]

The above is a minimal framework to make sense of many events, especially since late 1800's, that otherwise seem crazy-quilt.

* In late 1500's, the English Crown realized its very survival was as seafaring-traders/sea-controllers and began (1) building a global navy and (2)collecting data, in earnest, of all known, global resources, first compiled by England's Hakluyt team. [Just 1 example so the reader gets the urgency: On 2,500 mile voyages across open ocean, lack of potable water caused entire crews to die and their ships become derelict. Thus sources of potable water in mid-ocean and the route for longboats to get safely ashore on the "unknown" islands, became vital secrets to be learned.] That viewpoint and project primed many subsequent adventures from gold-buccaneering, fleet-building and wiping-out the Spanish Armada on up to The East India Company and into more modern, more covert tactics. Long-range planning always evolving by trial and error and very covert. The small island-nation of England learned well its limitations as its Empire collapsed. Surely by the 20th Century, survival depended on correctly analysing its failure to control that Empire. The island-nation needed a giant proxy-nation to front for its Empire rebuild. Whoever might it be?

** By 1890, it was apparent that Big Oil, primarily Standard's combine, had the cash volumes and cash flows to actually rival and threaten the banking game. In late 1890s, Rockefeller and JP Morgan teamed to buy Carnegie's steel behemoth and form the US Steel combine. The cash price was about $490 Million, in 1890-era dollars ! The peculiar nature of the petrogame's grip on HLP offerred real assets versus the paper of banking, breaking the banker's peculiar clout that depended on being allowed to monopolize paper money. Further, while paper money dealt with sovereign currencies on a nation-by-nation basis, oil was a global tool.

In the Barron's Online for December 25 (sorry, behind a subscription wall), Charles Lockwood has a piece, "As Green as the Grass Outside." A few excerpts:

"What's going on? A significant real-estate market shift is gathering momentum: Green buildings -- which have a less negative impact on the environment, boast lower energy consumption, and offer healthier indoor environments than "standard" buildings -- are going mainstream.

The numbers tell the story. The U.S. Green Building Council, an independent nonprofit association of more than 6,000 professionals and organizations dedicated to sustainable building design and construction, offers a rigorous Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification for buildings seeking to be designated as green. The group's listings go from the most basic, or certified, through silver and gold ratings to its highest ranking, platinum."

And for the doomers among us, here's a bit of doom, just to damp down any Christmas cheer you might be feeling:

"As the market shift gathers even greater momentum in coming years, standard buildings will become the real-estate industry's version of the buggy whip.

Rapid and massive obsolescence has challenged the world's commercial real-estate markets before. When earlier innovations were introduced into commercial buildings -- like central air conditioning in the 1950s and 1960s -- all properties lacking this innovation quickly became outmoded, and their value fell as top tenants headed for the exits. Those owners and investors who renovated their holdings with the new technologies protected and even boosted their property values."

As always, my apologies if this has already appeared elsewhere in the thread or in another thread.

Hello TODers,

Fascinating links today, Leanan! Thxs for your efforts.

I have posted about Secession efforts before-glad to see this gathering steam--an abrupt crisis will force this issue whereby Cascadia and other Northern areas will preclude, as best they can, the Southern advance of millions into their habitats. I expect SuperNafta to butt heads with those who wish to go Biosolar--hopefully 150 million wheelbarrows will win out over 150 million rifles, but it will probably take both. The good news is that advanced detritovores prefer shopping, video games, and tourist jet travel to the superior biosolar skills of hefting compost into wheelbarrows, chopping wood, and hunting game.

As mentioned many times before by me: the FF exporters need to be driving internal biosolar transformation to maximize export exchange power advantages long-term. If I was Putin, Chavez, et al, I would be exchanging FFs for factories to build bicycles, wheelbarrows, insulation, PVs, solar water heating, spiderwebrider equipment like railbikes and railPhevs, etc.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

This looks to be an older video (dated July 2006):

Grand Rapids Michigan Intro to Peak Oil
(Click image to view the video)
Does anyone know if it is effective in converting newbies?

Hello TODers,

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061226/us_nm/usa_poverty_newyork_dc

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Food or rent? That is the daily choice faced by about 1.2 million of New York's 8.2 million people.

Faced with that choice, mostly they pay rent and rely on emergency or charity food to survive, poverty activists say.

"When I first came here it was a lot of minorities, drug users, now it's the families, the struggling person," said Executive Director Sister Mary Alice Hannan, who has worked at the organization for 10 years.

"There's just some kind of a lack of awareness of the size of your family versus your income, your ability to live," Hannan said.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Why schools haven't taught about Malthus's overpopulation concepts for the past 200 years is truly the 'crime of all time'.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

New film review : "Children of Men" set in 2027 [only twenty years?]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/25/movies/25chil.html

-----------------------------------------
It’s 2027, and the human race is approaching the terminus of its long goodbye. Cities across the globe are in flames, and the “siege of Seattle” has entered Day 1,000. In a permanent war zone called Britain, smoke pours into the air as illegal immigrants are swept into detainment camps. It’s apocalypse right here, right now — the end of the world as we knew and loved it, if not nearly enough.

It imagines a world drained of hope and defined by terror in which bombs regularly explode in cafes crowded with men and women on their way to work. It imagines the unthinkable: What if instead of containing Iraq, the world has become Iraq, a universal battleground of military control, security zones, refugee camps and warring tribal identities?

It may seem strange, even misplaced to talk of beauty given the horror of the film’s explosive opening. For Theo, the emotionally, physically enervated employee of the Ministry of Energy played without a shred of actorly egotism by Clive Owen, the day begins with a cup of coffee, an ear-shattering explosion and a screaming woman holding her severed arm.

Everywhere there are signs and warnings, surveillance cameras and security patrols. “The world has collapsed,” a public service announcement trumpets, “only Britain soldiers on.” The verb choice is horribly apt, since heavily armed soldiers are ubiquitous. They flank the streets and train platforms, guarding the pervasive metal cages crammed with a veritable Babel of humanity, illegal immigrants who have fled to Britain from hot spots, becoming refugees or “fugees” for short.
-----------------------------------

I was hoping the movie reviewer would mention Peakoil as a possible reason for a world gone bad, but alas, no such luck.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?