DrumBeat: December 25, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 25, 2006 - 10:05am
Russia's Rosneft adds 862 mln bbl reserves in 2006
MOSCOW - Russian state oil company Rosneft said on Monday it had added 862 million barrels of new oil reserves in 2006, or 46 percent more than its forecast production....Its reserves include 14.9 billion barrels of liquids, making Rosneft the world's 11th-largest company on the list of oil reserves holders, on a par with Mexico's Pemex.
Iran puts 17 oil blocks out to tender
"Tomorrow (Tuesday), the exploration tenders for 17 oil blocks will be published in press," the National Iranian Oil Company's director of exploration, Mahmoud Mohades, was quoted as saying Monday."The minimum investment for these exploration blocks will be more than 460 million euros," he added.
"The tenders are for 12 onshore blocks and five other blocks in the Persian Gulf," he explained.
No Turkey-Georgia gas deal yet: Turkish official
ANKARA - Turkey has not yet reached a deal with Georgia to supply the ex-Soviet republic with much-needed gas next year but expects talks to be concluded in one week, a senior Turkish Energy Ministry official told Reuters on Monday.
Gazprom warns Belarus on price negotiations
MOSCOW (Reuters) -- Russian gas giant Gazprom said on Monday the clock was ticking for Moscow's ally Belarus to accept a sharp gas price hike from the New Year or have supplies cut, Russian news agencies reported."The current contract on gas supplies to Belarus will expire in six days," they quoted Gazprom's chief spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov as saying.
"Belarus's negotiating position is irresponsible and puts the issue of the whole country's energy supplies under threat."
Energize America: the technology of community
We all feel that we witnessing potentially world-changing stuff with the emergence of virtual communities on the internet, and we are trying to harness that power and understand what we can do with it - influencing public discourse, drafting policy, creating new solidarities and more. It's also interesting - and challenging, to say the least - to see that trend described as our best hope to solve the energy crisis.
Our fossil fuels are finite and global supplies, particularly oil and gas are dwindling at an ever faster rate as global populations increase and industrialization accelerates. While use of such fuels has allowed proportionate increase in standards of living, their use is also causing threat to our global, natural environment. The future welfare of man is at stake. Increased use of known forms of renewable energy and energy efficiency can slow the depletion rate, but do not provide assurance of adequacy of energy supplies for generations yet to come.
Nuclear energy nearing revival: 30 new reactors are being considered as power demands rise
After hibernating for decades, the nuclear industry is cautiously gearing up to build a new fleet of reactors to generate electricity, benefiting from political support while hoping to avoid the blunders of the past.
Can geothermal energy light up Yemen?
Turkey, Georgia in gas-sharing agreement
TBILISI, Georgia - Turkey has agreed to give up some of its share of a giant Caspian gas field to Georgia, allowing the small Caucasus nation to reduce its need for expensive Russian gas, the Georgian energy minister said Sunday.
Oil Minister: Turkey should not re-export Iran gas
Turkey has no right to re-export gas it is importing from Iran via a pipeline, said Iranian Oil Minister.
Reining in of foreign firms elsewhere increases African oil's allure
DAKAR, Senegal -- Angola is joining the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, African oil exploration is booming and China is investing. The appetite for African oil grows, even as militant attacks in some countries and precarious governments in others make returns uncertain.
Asian, Pacific countries must adopt 'green growth' patterns
These societies are already living beyond their ecological means and the current 'grow first, clean up later' growth pattern is likely to result in mounting ecological problems, the report by UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) said.
This year began with a European energy crisis caused by Russia's cutoff of gas supplies to Ukraine, where a democratic government not to the liking of Vladimir Putin had taken power. Because Russian gas passes through Ukraine on its way to Western Europe, the pressure also dropped in Paris and Vienna and Rome -- and Europeans suddenly realized they were dependent for electricity and warmth on an autocracy that was prepared to use energy as a tool of imperialism.
There's been a lot of controversy lately over whether Citizens Energy Corp. should distribute -- and the poor should accept -- discount heating oil from Venezuela while that country is under the leadership of President Hugo Chávez.But those who have no problem staying warm at night should not condemn others for accepting Venezuela's oil. Rhetoric means little to an elderly woman who has to drag an old cot from her basement to sleep by the warmth of the open kitchen stove or give up food or medicine to pay her heating bill.
Nigeria: We Have Met the Enemy, And It Is Us
Responding to the increased rebel violence in the Niger Delta, some oil companies are evacuating the families of foreign workers. Rebels attacks are, month by month, shutting down more production. MEND is getting more skillful and better organized in their attacks. The use of cell phone triggered car bombs, and the ability to get these vehicles into heavily guarded compounds, are examples of this. MEND is also refraining from killing innocent civilians, which means they remain popular, while still terrorizing the government. The bombs destroy the luxurious cars and facilities of the government and oil companies. Pictures of the bomb effects in the media make it clear where the oil money is going.
Nigerian separatists not swayed by hostages' pleas
An armed separatist group in southern Nigeria that is holding four foreign oil workers hostage said on Sunday that it will not be swayed by their pleas for release and indicted Italian oil firm Agip for allegedly attempting to pay a ransom.
Oil Output Cut Restores Balance to its Markets
OPEC estimated a surplus of 500,000-700,000 barrels in oil markets at present. A large part of this surplus is attributed to the fact that some member States do not commit to their output quota, as only 75-80% of the organization members that are committed to their respective quotas, hence the surplus in oil markets.
Some analysts predict rise in oil price
Crude-oil prices may rise this week on speculation that inventories will decline as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduces production.
Many problems continue to loom in Africa
Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and the fifth-largest U.S. supplier and has seen its typical oil production of 2.5 million barrels per day cut by a quarter this year by a series of attacks and hostage-takings by militants, some seeking ransoms and others political influence.At some point the world will have to exercise crucial intervention in this land of local wars and unrest. Otherwise, the Dark Continent is going to give us darkness on a scale we have never seen or hope to see.
A few holiday-induced thoughts about peak oil
Like a lot of people, when I think about peak oil, my mind drifts toward the things that are likely to go away: super-stocked grocery stores, cheap gas and easy mobility, push-button conveniences, exurban houses filling the prairie, and the techno-toys we stuff them with. Once the our present reality starts to sink in on you, it makes sense to think like that. After all, the key word that unlocks the post-peak oil cipher is "less." Not just less hydrocarbon energy; less of everything.
MERRY
CHRISTMAS to those of you who celebrate it. Hope the ultimate cornucopian was good to you. For everyone else...happy Monday. Or happy "celebrate our ape-like ancestors day." 
Contact
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Happy Holidays!
Herewith is an observation: I've tried to get my family members and friends interested in TOD (to read my comments, if nothing else:>) but have had no success. One of the major complaints is that the editors and posters are too smart, and my friends fear they cannot keep up, would be ridiculed if they made comments, etc.
Well, I have had the great good fortune to be around people who are way way smarter than I am for much of my life, and I like to hang out with and communicate with such people, because they are interesting and I'm likely to learn worthwhile things from them. But few people seem to share my tastes. One thing that I think could help is if we have a New Year's resolution for absolutely no flames. I like "Thumper's Rule," which is, "If you can't say something nice, then don't say nothin' at all." In the spirit of this thought I hereby nominate Hothgar as the most improved poster of Dec. 2006.
I second the nomination of Hothgar as most improved poster. The kid apparently stumbled onto the Oil Drum and proceeded to make response to comments a game, challenging RR and WT in a thoroughly obnoxious manner, but showing his real talent for research with his support for his comments with graphs and research. He did so well I thought for a while that he must be a paid troll. But after Professor Goose's story on edicate, he made a sincere effort to grow up and be a part of TOD community. Although he's slipped up a few times, he's remained even-tempered and is really trying.He's extremely bright and able, and his only real problem right now is he asks too few questions before jumping in with an opinion. He makes all of us question our assumptions which I consider a good thing.
I think we all ought to ease up on Hothgar and let him out of troll prison. I'm sure glad I'm not being held accountable for all my off-the wall statements made when I was in my 20's!
Thanks guys :)
Merry Christmas to you all! :)
I have just christened the latest stray cat to take up residence at my place Hothgor. He is a great furry black fellow who is going to the vet next week for a surgical attitude ajustment....
"... a surgical attitude ajustment ...."
Now, there's a way to deal with unruly posters. :-)
I concur - he deserves at least a measure of respect as a person for learning to participate here under harsh conditions, regardless of the reasons for that harshness.
Nuclear energy nearing revival:
> "Nuclear power is going to be an essential source, in my
> judgment, of future electricity for the United States,"
> President Bush said last week at a press conference.
> "Nuclear power is renewable, and nuclear power does not emit
> one greenhouse gas."
Is nuclear really renewable?
I believe this to be a questionable statement. The cement industry is a significant emitter of CO2. Add in all the energetic activity required to mine, crush, extract, transport, refine the fuel and all of the energetic construction activity and a single reactor would be associated with a significant stream of emissions.
Add in the fact that it is also asociated with an externality in that there is no accounting for decommissioning costs and spent fuel storage and the future does not look that rosy. Perhaps we need a Peak U-235 site?
How did GWB get elected once, let alone twice?
I blame the electorate.
He didn't.
You're in denial. I guess it's more palatable to believe in conspiracy than the fact millions of Americans voted for a dimwit.
Come on Bob... the Republicans were dishonest in Florida in 2000. They didn't count the vote and they certainly didn't want to remind us of that fact. Witness their lack support for Katherine Harris this year.
What the Supreme Court did was re-affirm the separate-but-equal philosophy. And, predictably, we are poorer for it.
Sure, a few 1000 votes were probably not counted, which tipped the balance to 51/49 instead of 49/51. But the point is that millions of people did intentionally vote for Bush, with full knowledge he was a dimwit. And not just in one election, but two.
You can't just dismiss the near 50% vote for Bush on a few miscounted votes. It is utterly amazing that the vote was close enough in the first place that a bit of cheating was enough to tip the balance. Face facts, the electorate are stupid!
I think you're the one in denial. Millions did vote for a dimwit, but both elections were "won" through a combination of fraud, voter negation and hackable Diebold machines.
Why is it that the "conspiracy" label is so often dropped on any topic that carries the slightest bit of controversy or is "out of the mainstream"? This country need more independent thinkers, not sheep.
That's my whole point in a nutshell, glad you agree!
It doesn't really matter whether he won,lost or stole the election, the fact is millions of voters must be stupid. That is what amazes me.
Nuff said!
Ron Patterson
Cousin Bob,
They are programmed to operate like video games.
Some inhabitants on the planet try to play "the game" fair and honest.
Others have the cheat sheet.
They know that if they use the "fear and terror" code they will be able to take control of the primal operating system in each robot's central processor.
When an election is held, lo and behold, those who used the cheat codes win. You then label the robots as "stupid".
They are not stupid. They are merely operating according to their primal software.
"Millions did vote for a dimwit"
That is because we have millions of dimwits in this country
Denial?
No. 1. Tom Pyle, who had worked for Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), went private sector a few months later, getting a job as director of federal affairs for Koch Industries.
No. 7. Roger Morse, another House aide, moved on to the law and lobbying firm Preston Gates Ellis & Rouvelas Meeds. "I was also privileged to lead a team of Republicans to Florida to help in the recount fight," he told a legal trade magazine in a 2003 interview.
No. 8. Duane Gibson, an aide on the House Resources Committee, was a solo lobbyist and formerly with the Greenberg Traurig lobby operation. He is now with the Livingston Group as a consultant.
No. 9. Chuck Royal was and still is a legislative assistant to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a former House member.
No. 10. Layna McConkey Peltier, who had been a Senate and House aide and was at Steelman Health Strategies during the effort, is now at Capital Health Group.
"Sources say the "rioters" proudly note their participation on résumés and in interviews. But while the original hardy band of demonstrators numbered barely a couple of dozen, the numbers apparently have grown with the legend."
Source:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31074-2005Jan23.html
Apparently, GWB is "renewable" as well.
I'm looking forward to many joyful years arguing who was the worst president in US history-Nixon,Bush the younger, or Franklin Pierce, the Democrat before the Civil War who let us drift into the war by encouraging the Southern secessionists. On American body count its obviously Pierce, but we have two more years of GWB left, and 30 more years of the fanatics he's appointed to the Supreme Court.
Remember that W's mother is Barbara PIERCE Bush, yes as in Franklin Pierce. Two of your candidates for worst president are related.
"I believe this to be a questionable statement. The cement industry is a significant emitter of CO2. Add in all the energetic activity required to mine, crush, extract, transport, refine the fuel and all of the energetic construction activity and a single reactor would be associated with a significant stream of emissions."
You are quite correct. This photo essay shows this quite starkly.
To be fair, with this level of reasoning, all of our alternative energy options would presently qualify as greenhouse gas emitters.
With caveats, any energy production method that does not rely on burning carbon as its primary energy source (nuclear, solar, wind) could be considered CO2 free, even considering the CO2 overhead. There is technology that could take carbon-free energy and use it to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This approach would eventually "take back" the CO2 released during the manufacture of the power plant.
Considering that the energy source is from a supernova ~4.6 billion years ago (making uranium and thorium about 20 times older than typical fossil fuels) and we better HOPE we don't get another, the answer is definitely no. On the other hand, they have no inherent* GHG emissions and it's going to take us a lot longer to exhaust them than oil, gas and coal.
* No quibbles about what it takes to make concrete; make the containment out of graphite composite and it could be carbon negative.
ROFLMAO - graphite composite is extremely energy intensive. (Not really helpful for "hypercars" either.)
The real issue is EROEI and nuclear likely has a positive EROEI but not as good in that sense as oil has been.
I just located the following which seems to be an accurate accounting of the net energy balance:
Source URL:
http://www.uic.com.au/nip57.htm
The same site has another table with different figures and figures for hydro, NG, LNG, and PV. Not sure if it will fit here:
Boy, that edit button is a lifesaver!
What are you talking about? You just stated (or quoted the statement):
This makes EROEI of 74, while ethanol's is ~1.35. For a unit of input energy you get 73 net out with nuclear and 0.35 net out from ethanol.
This makes nuclear 209 times better energy source than ethanol on EROEI basis!
And also a great source of confusions. I will not edit my previous comment, as it was valid towards the previous version of your post.
Your comment is correct with regard to the prior unedited post. I had it backwards, realized the error and then edited away my stupidity :-(
Everyone else however will be left wondering about your comments so I have posted this reply.
I have been wading through data on another site which suggests that the key issue is the concentration of the source ore. If this drops below 2% then over the full life-cycle the plant uses as much energy as it produces.
There appears to be a significant amount of debate on this point. The data I provided above came from a site associated with a U235 mining association. The conflicting data appears to be peer reviewed science but I have not yet confirmed that.
Cheers?
and thus it begins..
congratulations your the first person to use the edit button to revise what you said to make the person who posted after you look bad.
I don't think it was on purpose... that makes it even more frustrating - even well meaning people can make a huge mess of themselves. And a lot of energy will be spent just to setlle down who said what :)
And guess what? The rest of the internet has been dealing with this for years. Forum software has that problem already licked. Every post that gets edited gets an annotation (that the author cannot remove) that says "Edited by Soandso on Dec. 24, 2006 at 11:53pm" or something similar. Thus, if you read responses that don't make sense you realize it has been edited. Further, this encourages responders to quote specific sections with which they quibble, which also demonstrates when a (prior) comment is edited.
Those of you that believe this is a gigantic issue apparently have not used discussion forums elsewhere on the internet. Perhaps SuperG can modify Drupal to annotate each post when it has been edited so that readers can see what has occurred. Or perhaps authors can even annotate their posts themselves. You might see something like the following:
Edited on 2006/12/25 at 14:37: Fixed spelling and grammar errors
Edited on 2006/12/25 at 14:52: Fixed math error in second list.
Then you'd even have a record of what was edited and why, which would be respectful of your fellow posters - both to those just reading the thread and to those who have replied or will reply.
The internet is used for something besides discussing peak oil ?
Wow :)
i have been around on normal forum software and it /doesn't/ specify what was edited, it only says it was and by whom at what time.
this makes it hard for other people who did not come /before/ a post was edited to know what was originally said.
you have started down a slippery slope here, mark my words.
editing posts without allowing one to see was the post was before the edit like a 'click here to see original post' will just allow things to get worse not better.
the troll problem will get worse as they can edit their posts to make their detractors look like idiots. worse so called respectable posters here some of whom do not like criticism or having holes poked through their pet projects that they think will save the world will be able to do the same. this is of course the /big/ downside to digital media. one can edit, remove, change what was said and only those who are lucky enough to see what it was before they pressed the edit button will be the wiser. i admit i posted stuff i later regret but knowing i could not take it back and then use that childish desire to always /be/ right to my advantage by making the ones who posted after me look like idiots.
a really steep and really slipery slope each poster becomes his/her own "ministry or truth" ?
GreyZone - Every time a web page is changed, it gets WORSE. That's rule #1.
Yes, I know pages run by and for teenage phone phreaks that are much more coherent than this. At least on PeakOil.com you get coherent threads instead of ADHD schizowordsalad. IF a thread is a good one, it bobs up to the top, stinkers tend to be sinkers, and fall "below the fold" into deserved obscurity. There are articles and videos, pathetic ones bu they're there, and threads can be started off with an article then it's .... Discuss!
In an ideal world this site would have PO.com's layout and functionality, and Leanan's touch, and the higher quality, of this site here.
I argued before the changeover that they should consider a good forum software package, like VBulletin, for instance. They chose to not do that. The signal to noise ratio here was already bad (except the main articles) so the slight changes to format are not bothersome terribly for me. Yes, the site could be better organized but these people are NOT being paid for this so if this is the best they can do then we either accept it or move on. Given that I like the primary article content and certain other commentators, I'll accept the problems. Nothing in life is ever perfect and people having strokes over this format change are a wee bit too melodramatic.
I suspect that people who are clamoring for PeakOil.com's format have no clue how hard people work on moderating that site. A lot of people put a lot of hours into it, and there's also a lot of discussion and coordination behind the scenes. The mods spend a lot of time policing the forums. Not just booting spammers and trolls, but warning, suspending, and banning people who are disruptive, moving threads that are posted in the wrong forum, consolidating threads when 15 people start threads on the same topic in four different forums, pruning the OT posts from otherwise useful threads, etc.
And the signal-to-noise ratio still isn't great over there. I seriously doubt we can do any better, with our smaller staff.
This is one of my concerns about the requests to hit the button for Digg and other reference counting sites. There is a lot of discussion on energy issues out there and the vast majority of them turn into mug slinging contests with very little in the way of actual content or well thought out opinions. I can understand the desire to "get the word out" and get both more eyeballs and writers here, but it is possible that we will attract the wrong crowd, who will sufficate the signal with worthless noise. I shudder to think what would happen if the masses at gas buddy or fark found their way over here.
I don't think it's a matter of just the number of visitors. It's a difference in function.
The purpose of a blog is to let one person, or a small group of people, share their views with an audience. Having good people writing content allows you to set the tone.
The purpose of a message board is to let people communicate with each other. It has some advantages, but in the end, being more democratic, you get a lot more chaff with the wheat.
What would be the point of duplicating PO.com? I'd much rather have two different sites performing two different functions.
I personally prefer the article centric approach of TOD. I browse PO.com from time to time but always come back here for the meat and potatoes/main articles.
You're going to have to blockquote everything you're replying to henceforth.
Yes.
Tainter's "diminishing returns on complexity."
Sigh. Exactly. I see it everywhere and with this page change, I see it here.
BTW I'm not sure if this is exactly the same thing, but in the Crash, we can expect to go not to the 1850s, or even the 1750s, but probably more like the 1050s. The reason I say this is, for instance, I never learned to sew except by hand, to sew up clothes so I could stay physically decent, that's how poor I was in my teens and early 20s. Sewing machine? Might as well not have been invented. I was working on a portable antenna design and was going to use rubber stoppers for something, woops, can't get those in Silicon Valley, have to go back to corks - no 1850s rubber stoppers, back to corks which date much further back. Maybe this is an interesting way Tainterian collapse happens, not stepping one step back, but going backward in knowledge and abilities by backward leaps and bounds.
And a lot of energy will be spent just to setlle down who said what
Please... ONLY when the edit happens concurrently with the first reply.
You were just unlucky!
Cheers :)
2% is a very high grade ore, and AFAIK only Australia has significant deposits of it. Using the initial numbers you quote, mining + processing takes 9.6 PJ or 0.3% of the output. So, you will need 300 times increase of mining energy intensity to reach to a energy break even. Assuming 1% initial grade and that energy input is reversely proportional to energy grade, this mean that the break even energy threshold would be 1% / 300 = 0.003% U2O3 concentration.
This is a very low concentration and makes the resource base large exponentially. For example only known phospate rocks are estimated to contain ~9 million tonnes of U (150 years of current consumption). Their typical concentration is 50-200ppm, which translates 0.015% to 0.06% ore concentration. This is low by current standards but still 5 to 20 timens below the energy break even threshold.
BTW thanks for the link. I just found time to review it in depth. I'd like to particularly stress on the following passage:
There it goes. The crux of the flux. If we only internalised all the costs which are brought by fossil fuels in terms of pollution, GW etc. then we would be building only nuclear, hydro and wind power now. Potentially PV if its costs drop down some more.
There's a reason why even major "greens" like Lovelock call for nuclear development. They recognize that the only hope of both saving the environment and saving the bulk of the existing population entails a huge energy base and only nuclear can do that fast enough and on a large enough scale to avert catastrophe.
I'm not sure Lovelock is banking on saving the bulk of the present population no matter how things unfold. The "bulk" of the present population would mean keeping on at a population of say 4-5 billion instead of today's nearly 7.
What I think Lovelock has in mind is saving human knowledge, so that even in a population pare-down to something like 10% of what we have now, we don't have a total knowldge crash. He feels that all this techie knowledge we have is Good, and thus worth saving, even if it means canning it and drying it and preserving it by the light of nuclear fires.
I disagree with this - I don't think our technical knowldge is Good, all it's ever resulted in is new and interesting ways to rape the earth and each other.
Then I fundamentally disagree with you. Attributing good and evil to things is nonsense - a medieval state of mind. Good and evil emanate directly from the actions of human beings. We can do good or we can do evil. The fact that the majority of us choose to do evil things certainly lends some credence to the Jewish/Christian/Muslim notion of original sin and the inherent sinfulness of humanity, doesn't it?
As for Lovelock, he appears to be saying that the only chance we have is nuclear, regardless. If I've misread him as thinking that is intended towards saving the bulk of the population, then that is my mistake. Nonetheless, he clearly believes that the other technologies cannot ramp up fast enough in a world of declining energy resources without first increasing GHGs, which is exactly the wrong thing to do.
I happen to think that knowledge is worth preserving. You are free to find some outback somewhere and live like a naked ape. But if you expect to impose that notion on me, you will fail.
I don't think our technical knowldge is Good,
That's not the point, it doesn't really matter whether you, me or Lovelock agree or disagree on that, already 4-5 billion of "bulk" is UNSUSTAINABLE (short of "miracles"...)
Keep talking like that Kevenbuanga, and you'd better get good at living in the Outback, because you'll be speaking heresy against Amurrikan belief. (We are blessed, and pop. can go up forever).
Keep talking like that Kevenbuanga, and you'd better get good at living in the Outback, because you'll be speaking heresy against Amurrikan belief. (We are blessed, and pop. can go up forever).
It might not take nuclear; wind and biofuel fuel cells plus PHEV's plus other clever architecture might do it (5000 billion kWh potential from 1.7 billion tons of biomass, enough to replace everything the US uses), but it sure would be nice to have a goodly chunk of nuclear as a backstop.
E.P. - It's not enough to move the US. We have to move the entire planet. Or else China, India, etc., will burn that oil, gas, and coal and the global warming problem remains.
If the US doesn't take the initiative, it's not going to happen. The technology has to exist before China and India can adopt it.
Well, if it comes to that, what is commonly called "renewable" energy here on Earth, ultimately comes from the fusion of the hydrogen nuclei in the Sun's core. Our sun is a small star and eventually it will lose all of its hydrogen fuel which will turn to helium and our star will turn into red giant.
So it turns out that no energy source is "renewable". It always comes from burning some sort of fuel. What really matters is *how much* of this fuel we have at disposal and how much we can harness. It is us humans that are loading the otherwise meaningless word "reneawable" with this semi-magical aura. Which is aimed to impress the clueless public of course.
WTF is one greenhouse gas? Perhaps W was referring to nuclear fusion, as in the Sun. But, I guess, even the sun is not renewable in the sense that it will eventually burn out. But, I think sufficiently renewable for our purposes.
OK this is fucking great - if you Reply to a thread, your post ends up way down on the bottom of the page, making this site even more of an ADHD word-salad than it already was.
Fuck this, time to stop banging my head against the wall, this is my last post, I'll read but no more posting, have a nice life people and if there is a God, *God Bleass Leanan*.
Fleam, there is a way around this problem. In fact it is something everyone should be doing to avoid confusion. Simply repost the quote you are replying to, then give your reply. Either do a blockquote or italicize the passage you are replying to. For instance.
Or:
I am replying to this.
This way, everyone knows what you are replying to and there is no confusion. I always do this unless I am absolutely sure my reply will appear right below the post I am replying to. Most people just reply however and everyone has to guess at the post they were replying to.
Ron Patterson
Actually, in addition to Sailorman's "no-flame" request post at the top, it would be really nice if we could agree to lay off the gratuitous cursing. I curse plenty: hammers hit fingers, toast burns, George Bush wants to surge, etc... but I won't curse on this forum.
Stick around Fleam, they'll get the site squared away. This is only Day 1.
Software is complicated, with countless details. Detailed bug reports are helpful, bitching is much less so. Drupal has been under development for many years, and it is big. Super G and the other admins will doubtless be tweaking it for a while. So...chill out. And merry Christmas.
yes wtf is "one greenhouse gas" ? dont the cooling towers emit water vapor ?
I would say yes, though with some caveats. I restate arguments from Bernard Cohen, at:
The Nuclear Option, Chapter 13, Fuel of the Future
The oceans contain about 5,000,000,000 tons of uranium, and erosion adds a few million tons more every year. Given a reasonable technology for extracting uranium from seawater, and breeder reactors to burn the uranium, nuclear reactors could supply several times the world's current consumption of electricity indefinitely.
The form of nuclear power we currently use is not renewable. We have experimented with the technologies needed for "renewable nuclear", and have not found any insurmountable problems.
>The oceans contain about 5,000,000,000 tons of uranium, and erosion adds a few million tons more every year. Given a reasonable technology for extracting uranium from seawater, and breeder reactors to burn the uranium, nuclear reactors could supply several times the world's current consumption of electricity indefinitely.
This will never happen. To begin with there is the dreaded EROEI. Recovery of Uranium for sea water is the same as trying to extract gold or other precious metals. In addition only U-235 is fissible and only 0.7% of natural uranium is U-235. Its far more pratical to mine Uranium from the two dozen or so sites that are economical recoverable.
Breeder reactors are most likely a dead end. To begin with, for a breeder reactor to be economical, the cost of natural uranium must be in the range of about $4K/kg. Today, I believe the cost is below $80/kg. Breeder reactors are very difficult to operate and to maintain and are far more prone to accidents because they require a much more enriched fuel source that can lead to flash over since Plutonium has a very short delay fraction with fast neutrons.
So far the best Nuclear option I have found is with HWR, which cannot bread (CFR > 1.0) but come close at 0.90, and they don't have any of the risks with FBRs since they operate on thermal neutrons.
Concerning this link posted by Leanan this morning: [Nuclear energy nearing revival: http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-12-18-power-plant_x.htm]
[The Bellfonte Nuclear Power Plant http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-12-18-power-plant_x.htm] near Scottsboro, Alabama was near completion when it was shut down several years ago. [A picture of it can be seen here, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7921287/] and as you can see everything on the outside has been completed though I don’t have a clue as to the state of completion of the reactor.
My point is, it would take only a very few years to bring this plant on line should TVA decide to do so.
When peak oil becomes obvious to most people, and they start to panic, this will perhaps be the first new nuclear power plant in America.
Ron Patterson
Note The old version of the Oil Drum would have transformed the bracketed statements into links and hidden the actual links. It does not seem to be working this morning. Anyone have any idea why?
>>>
Note The old version of the Oil Drum would have transformed the bracketed statements into links and hidden the actual links. It does not seem to be working this morning. Anyone have any idea why?
super G said auto format has been removed for the time being. apparently it is being replaced with something that is far superior...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2109#comment-141732
The auto format has gone, you can use old fashioned HTML, or wait for the new wysiwyg editor. In the meantime try:
<a href="the link">the description</a>
viz
The Bellfonte Nuclear Power Plant
Check your options under "Input format" below the text-entry box.
I don't get no "Input format" :(
Go here
And Merry Christmas to you Leanan!!!
Nothing better than getting the daily TOD fix :-)
Thanks!!
I just wanted to say that I think Leanan is one of the best presents we all receive and she gives a new one every day of the year. Thank you so much for all you do!
Todd
Ditto!
Merry Christmas to everyone at TOD. I started reading TOD, Energy Bulletin, LATOC and others about six months ago and have been educated far beyond any of the private and public learning institutions I've attended in my 50 years. Thanks to all of you. I, too, have found it challenging to spread the word. And still I do every opportunity I get. Most responses range from "what are ya gonna do?" to those deer-caught-in-the-headlights look.
Here is an email from my oldest brother who lives in the Seattle area. He and his wife have several homes for the elderly. After reading it I thought, "Ooo! and this from someone I know, someone I'm related to." Makes you wonder what our fellow human beings' reactions will be when the cause is not directly related to Nature or slow responses from agencies.
He writes:
Here's hoping "being prepared" means something different in the new year... the year of the Great Awakening.
Peace to all.
Edgy (from foggy San Francisco)
We just opened some presents with my kids.
My family gave me a DVD of "Syriana" and the "All New Square Foot Gardening" book by Mel Bartholomew.
Also, a great music CD by one of my favorites, Canadian singer-songwriter Bruce Cockburn (pronounced Koe/bern).
The CD is filled with beautiful guitar work, some lush and haunting music, and what my ten-year-old son describes as " a great beat!" on many songs.
But as important for me are the soulful and insightful lyrics so characteristic of Bruce Cockburn. He has long traveled to the world's hotspots to meet people and observe -- Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan -- many places. He writes with depth of thought and heart.
Several songs strike me as very fine, but especially "Beautiful Creatures" and "Slow Down Fast," "Tell the Universe" is powerful too, and goes right along with "This Is Baghdad."
From "Tell the Universe"
"Tell the universe what you've done
Out in the desert with your smoking gun
Looks like you've been having too much fun
Tell the universe what you've done
Tell the universe what you took
While the heavens trembled and the mountains shook
All those lives not worth a second look
Tell the universe what you took
Tell the universe where you've been
With your bloodstained boots and your dunce's grin
Got to notify the next of kin
Tell the universe where you've been"
The whole album is not about war. Love songs, songs about the planet and our place in the mystery are rich with musical and lyrical gems.
Peak Oil?
Here's this from "Slow Down Fast"
"Oil wars water wars tv propaganda whores
Fire alarm met with snores no one gets what's gone before
Slow down fast"
So later I'll bike again in globally-warmed Minneapolis, and spend more time with family.
Good Christma-hana-Kwannzaa and so forth to all!
Happy Holidays to Leanan, the TOD crew, and all TODers out there!
I though I best post this now while I am still sufficiently lucid to do so.
Here's an excerpt from an AP story I saw in my local newspaper about how our troops in Iraq are coping with it being in a war environment on Christmas:
[.... At an Army outpost in Ramadi, the most dangerous city in insurgent-dominated Anbar province west of Baghdad, soliders decorated a full-size artificial Christmas tree with mines, smoke granades and machine gun rounds and stuck a massive knift on the top.
"You can go anywhere in Iraq," grinned Staff Sgt. Jeremy Gann, a 24-year-old from Dallas, GA, who is part of th 1st Battlion, 37th Regiment. "You won't find another Christmas tree like it." ..... ]
I'm sure Jesus would be proud.
PEACE ON EARTH
Christmas trees are a pagan thing, anyway.
But the news from Iraq isn't good:
British troops raid renegade Iraqi police unit
The British operate in southern Iraq, which is supposed to be the peaceful area of the country.
We blew up the Serious Crime Unit's building. I think a Serious Crime Unit is supposed to stop Serious Crime not be responsible for or co-ordinating it. I think we should have told the Iraqis the difference between what we thought it meant and what they meant it to be.
Apparently they were going to kill a hundred or so prisoners shortly before the raid took place on Christmas day. Perhaps that is a kind of Shia Christmas present. On the BBC news, there were reports of some Basra politicians being quite upset about the whole operation. If US/UK forces were determined to stop this sort of thing, those protesting politicians should be taken away and put into detention, as they obviously have some terror links.
Happy Christmas (or whatever) to all! Eat, drink and be merry for the sun is coming back and there will be a new year. I second Don Sailorman on Thumper's maxim.
Yesterday's Energy Bulletin contained a piece titled, "Happy relocalizers", Doomers, etc., by Rob Hopkins. To me, this is the best analysis of what to do and think that I've seen to date, given the variety of uncertainties we face.
My response has been to plant apple and nut trees and prepare ground for a kitchen garden near the house in place of ornamentals. We will start a small flock of chickens next spring, mostly for eggs. It's good to have objectives like this as a spur to drag the old bag of bones (I turn 84 next week) away from less productive things.
Cheers and best wishes for all,
-- Mort
Mort - Did you post a while back over the fact that you had lived through the 1929 depression era?
If yes, then I am curious if you see parallels between current "doomer" angst over a peak oil crises and what you observed during that prior crisis.
Best wishes for a happy and healthy New Year!
Hello new account!
Yes, My elementary school years in Oak Park, IL spanned the depths of the depression. My family was somewhat more fortunate than some, so my personal experience was mostly peripheral to the troubles. There was a great deal of privation, but in a large measure people helped each other, and government at all levels tried to help people in trouble.
Rural areas suffered the most and for the most part, people who could not manage migrated to small and large cities to find work or food through charitable agencies. Yes, there were breadlines in cities. Some families abandoned their farms and homes. The federal "alphabet" agencies, WPA, CCC, etc. were formed to provide paid work in problem areas where there was widespread privation. Camps were built to house and feed the workers, who were improving roads, building bridges, schools an other public needs. It was all voluntary -- no one was "rounded up".
I did not read or hear of anything like today's doom talk -- there may have been some -- but the people directly affected, by and large, held on to their shreds of hope. At that time the gap separating some base level of a person or family "making it" and absolute despair was a matter of a only few dollars a week. Most of the displaced people were equipped with nominal rural/small-town survival skills and were used to hard work.
I do not remember hearing a sense that naational collapse was a possibility; we would somehow get through the troubles and be a better country for it.
For another slant on how things were, read Jophn Steinbeck's "The Grapes of Wrath". This involved mainly the people affected by the "dust bowl" period during the early part of the 1930s, and migration to California.
Why Skrebowski is way too optimistic:?
The reason Skrebowski is wrong is quite simple. The world has nowhere near the reserves he thinks it does. Skrebowski is simply using the official
EIA estimate of proven reserves. Well, actually it is the estimate of BP, The Oil & Gas Journal and World Oil. This latest table, posted by the EIA on October 5th, 2006 shows Middle East reserves of between 711.644 billion barrels, (World Oil), and 743.411 billion barrels, (Oil & Gas Journal). Middle East reserves are actually somewhere between 300 billion barrels and 350 billion barrels, less than half the official estimate. The EIA report shows Saudi Reserves at 264 Gb, Kuwait reserves at 101 Gb and Iranian reserves at 132 Gb. All these estimates are well over double of what actually exist.
Total discovered reserves are not 2,328 Gb, but between 1,900 Gb and 2,000 Gb. (Give or take a tad.) This puts the peak in 2005, not 2012.
Please note that I am not criticizing Skrebowski's argument. Actually he makes a fantastic argument. He is simply relying on oil reserves that do not exist. But that does not take away from the validity of his argument, it just changes the peak date by about seven years.
Ron Patterson.
Right. Also his math seems wrong. If 2328 is the URR and if peak is at 50% of that then it's 3 years after 2005: 2328/2 = 1164 (as he says), and we've already used 1077, so time to reach 50% is (1164-1077)/29. Not divided by (29-11) as he says. If the 11 GB new found per year are to be added to the 1251 that "remain", then the URR is not 2328 and there is no way to compute the URR or the 50% point from those data. Besides, I thought we no longer find 11 GB per year, hasn't it been lower than that in recent years?
I just read the blockquote, so I could be wrong, but I don't he think his 2328 is URR. It's "total discovered reserves". If we are still discovering 11 GB per year, then his figures are accurate.
If the Middle Eastern reserves are overstated (like Shell) then I think it's quite likely we are within a year or two (either way) of peak.
Even if he is right - 2012 is VERY soon.
Garth
Yep, nuclear's great!! Huge EREOI if you count it the way the US government counts inflation, just don't count the stuff you don't want to count. Don't count the oil-powered trucks, mining equipment, reactor manufacturing base, etc etc etc and you too can make nuclear "show" a huge EROEI.
At least nuclear makes a good techno-religion to pacify people. In the end it will all become obvious though - the oil party's over.
At brunch this AM, I had an interesting discussion with a retired "resource economist" from Vancouver. He assured me that:
And I'll I got was a lump of coal in my stocking.
There was a rock shop in Houston-Jeanes in Bellaire- selling pieces of anthracite for children this season.
Sounds lke your economist friend is the same guy who assumed the Magic Can Opener into existance!
and dont forget to count burgers flipped as "burgers manufactured"
Just wanted to drop a HAPPPY HOLIDAY and see if I am still able to post at all!
It took me the better part of 4 tries to get my password and user name back, so I am happy to be here, and since I have a Mac, most of the normal features you guys are so spoiled to never worked for me anyway...:-(
The good news as we finish out yet one more year is that we are not back at the stone age yet, the great economic catastrophe didn't hit, and if it's going to 2006, which was predicted by some folks here, it's going to have to get going soon, despite the worst hurricanes of the season right in oil/gas producing distributing areas, we still never saw shortages and the price never got to half of what many European nations have paid for years. Go figure.
On the downside, storm clouds are gathering: The U.K. is getting to the point of an almost unsolvable natural gas emergency, even with a mild winter, natural gas is at 3 1/2 to 4 times it's historic price in the U.S., and the political situation in the Middle East continues to slide toward chaos, with even our moderate allies losing faith that we can do anything to avert a meltdown. The Saudi's are becoming more open in their disdain and insolence, seeming to feel that the oil they deliver gives them an exemption from all normal rules. Iraq, what can one say? The policy there is proving to be one of the great foriegn policy failures in U.S. history, and we will live with the errors for most of the rest of our natural lives, now built in to the world political/military/security landscape. A horrendous policy poorly executed, bad in all ways.
But, in my local area all still seems well: We get electric from coal, so damm the global warming, when nat gas goes up, we fire up the electric space heaters, and throw a chicken in the electric range, and convert to coal!
Louisville, in a "yes, you can have it all!", policy, now has great artist conceptions showing on the news on TV of not 1 but 2 new Ohio river bridges, a new arena and a downtown museum/shopping/condo/apartment complex (I wonder what the EROEI is on all of that stuff?), but all the cost estimates made only 3 years ago are now 400% in error to the low side, due to the new pricing of concrete, steel and asphalt (everyone keeps saying, "why has that stuff gone up so much?', they are totallly unaware apparently...) Louisville could have gotten it's one bridge in the East end where it was planned YEARS ago, at a quarter of the cost....but why take one in the hand when you can stall, argue, replan and litigate your way into 2 at four times the cost!
America. What a town. I am still much, much more worried about "peak stupidity" than "peak oil". But with "Peak Stupidity" there is no danger of reaching the apex and heading backside and down the slope anytime soon.
Again, HAPPY HOLIDAYS! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Yes, we voted for a dimwit. We intentionally voted for the dimwit, and many of us would have voted two or three times for the dimwit if we knew how to pull that off.
It was a choice between a dimwit, or a slick, conniving, elitist, Jew turned supposed-Catholic and fake Irishman, Kohn-"Kerry" and his horrible wife who everyone just knows beat the servants on Wednesdays. "Kerry" just got weirder and weirder as election day got closer, ultimately just going on and on about killing, killing, killing. I'm convinced if Kerry had won, we'd be in Iran, Syrian, possibly Jordan, and quite possibly Saudi Arabia with its Royals hiding out somewhere, and losing 3000 soldiers a month, not total, a month.
So yes, I and about 50% of all voters voted for the idiot.
Now, looking back to the last Evil Empire, the guy who won was a man of the people, a bit effete but had done his time in the trenches, literally, and won his Iron Cross. A man who could talk art - as long as it was conventional art - and politics and liked his cream cakes, but who people had all witnessed standing out on the street on a box, in the cold wind, talking to the people in the people's language. He could go through a whole lecture to the upper class without once using the word "Jew", but among the people, he was one of them. He used the language of the people and WAS one of the people, and conveyed as such in "trench language" to get the message across. So, you'd been living on soup-line meals and your best boots and coat were what you took home with you after the Armistice? This new leader could relate! You'd gone hungry, so had he!
Bush at least is seen driving his own pickup truck, instead of being chauffured in that huge black limo, what is that, a Zil? that "Kerry" is known for. Bush can throw a baseball, "Kerry"'s athletic accomplishments seem to be limited to multi-thousand dollar bike riding and windsurfing using even more expensive equipment, in resort areas around the world. His wife does not make apple pie (I think I can be pretty safe in assuming Laura Bush has made at least one apple pie in her life) while "Kerry"'s wife has the servants make her compote.
It's not fair I want the leader the Germans got in 1933! I want our present-day Huey Lewis, I want Pat Buchanan in the White House! But until then, I'll settle for voting for the most right-wing mofo I can, and sadly Bush is the closest thing for now.
FDR did not fight in the trenches in any war. He was assistant secretary of the navy in the first world war. Truman was an artillary guy and did get shelled frequently, though. But he didn't get to be president till after the Russians were shelling Berlin. Hard to say he won the war.
Hey, lay off any mention of the word "Jew". It bugs people. Like me, for instance. You got a problem with Jewish people, keep it to yourself.
www.come-and-hear.com some people believe this stuff you know, I personally believe they're laying it on a little thick, it will be done in a more "PC" manner and with several layers of obfuscation between the Pharisees and the cattle, er, Americans.
FDR indeed did not fight in any trenches, polio tends to make a good excuse! Huey Newton, "The Kingfish" also didn't fight that I know of, maybe I'm wrong and he fought in WWII but he was a great Populist leader, this is the kind of guy we need. He was assassinated by a Je...... by a J..... oh dear don't want to offend the Chosen one here....
Truman was a good Prez as far as I know, of course being a Dem I'd never have voted for him, but I've heard he did a good job. Who runs in 08 will be interesting to see, I've like to see a righter-winger Ahnold run, but until we change the Constitution, no Austrian corporals for us, darn it. I think McCain is too Left, Jeb Bush is a non-starter in his own opinion, so I'm not sure who we'll run. We need a populist type who doesn't mind flattening a few AIPAC noses and kicking in a few PNAC balls. Our ideal guy would be something like..... worked through college and grad school working in the steel mills, ran a successful small or medium then large business, then into politics, at State level cut taxes and crime, then on to Governor or Senate level being a rabid and uncorruptable populist, then on to the White House. Not likely we're going to get that in 08, but frankly anyone we run is going to win, since the Dems can't decide whether to run Osama or Hitlery. Let's just hope this sorry excuse for a "Republican" party can get back to its roots and get back the old Lindburgh spirit, no more foreign involvement.
And if that offends you, tough.
If we had an ignore option on this website, you would now be on it.
Huey Long was "The Kingfish". Huey Newton was a black panther.
Ron Patterson
Yes, that's right, and I'd have been much smarter to call him "The Kingfish" right at first, just like someone who has trouble spelling the last name of California's governor can do no wrong just calling him The Terminator, and everyone will know who they mean.
Now, don't everyone scream at once, but here's a nice little interview with a horrible, horrible, Anti-Semitic, Nazi, Communist, Unwashed, Anti-American, Enemy-Trading-With and Baby-Eating man, with a horrible name that certainly didn't come over with the Mayflower.... Gore Vidal!
http://www.counterpunch.org/mariam12212006.html
It was a choice between a dimwit, or a slick, conniving, elitist, Jew turned supposed-Catholic and fake Irishman, Kohn-"Kerry" and his horrible wife who everyone just knows beat the servants on Wednesdays.
This is why I cannot recommend the Oil Drum to my neighbors.
This is why I cannot recommend the Oil Drum to my neighbors.
YES.
But this is also why we are all screwed because people are too dumb to sort out the grain from the chaff by themselves.
They need Political Correctness not to be offended, and WITH or WITHOUT Political Correctness they are blinded, by their prejudices if "without", by propagandists if "with".
Hear Hear.
When I have suggested others read TOD, they all too often come back at me quoting passages from idiots. I try to say, "Hey, anyone can post there, there are smart people but also some idiots..." but that doesn't seem to wash.
I could never decide if they were just looking for a reason not to have to evaluate the message or if they really believed that if one poster was an idiot, then you couldn't take anything from any of them.
I think the problem is that people really don't have the background to evaluate something like peak oil. They know nothing about it. So it's judged by the company it keeps. If they come here and see people posting conspiracy theories, they assume peak oil is a conspiracy theory. If they see people posting rightwing nuttiness, they assume peak oil is rightwing nuttiness. If they see people posting leftwing nuttiness, they assume peak oil is leftwing nuttiness.
You have to read an awful lot to really get a handle on peak oil, and be able to judge who's reasonable and who's a nut. Most people are not going to do that. The average web surfer spends less than 60 seconds at a web site. First impressions count, even moreso online than in person.
If you believe in "freedom of speech" then you have to accept the right of someone you term an "idiot" to speak. Some of the people you consider idiots believe themselves to be the righteous ones and you to be the I-word. Who is to say which, if either, is right?
One thing we need to applaud is the quality maintained by the TOD staff editors.
TOD is not a place for a newbie to learn about Peak Oil. It's too technical.
Everyone has their favorite site to hawk on where newbies might learn about Peak Oil.
Try listening to this 2004 radio interview with Paul Roberts (Book: End of Oil).
A list of audio files on Peak Oil basics can be found here. (Hat tip to the Peak Shrink's guide to PO page -see Agric's list in his comment at that page.)
My favorite is PO & Fate of Hummanity --but for that one, a person has to be free of ADHD.
Might want to ease up on the eggnog a bit.
Hey Westexas.. the world seems to be waking up to your export land model.
This official recognition by the National academy of sciences about Iran's exports would be your "official" first blood.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&D...
He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.
"With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity."
Thats a case of gross mismanagement, not necessarily a geological decline. The same thing is happening in Venezuela.
And you know this because...?
The article said
I didn't catch where they identified the cause of the decline.
I agree Rethin. There are no magmt issues cited.The imp thing for me was that although obvious to all at TOD, the rate at which exports can fall in the face of rising demand and slowly falling oil production has not got such attention by mainstream media.
Here we have the National academy of sciences speaking out. I will take that as a small win for the peak oilers trying to get their message out.
The diversion of funds from production maintenance (keeping up the supplies of foreign exchange) to fuel subsidies (driving up consumption) is almost the definition of mismanagement.
"At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production."
And this isn't a form of oil field mismanagement how?
"The diversion of funds from production maintenance (keeping up the supplies of foreign exchange) to fuel subsidies (driving up consumption) is almost the definition of mismanagement."
At least someone gets it :P
Hothgor,
THE US never fialed to reinvest in its fields and they still declined. Subsidized fuel prices are common in most oil exporters and they will never ( I repeat never) be able to completely bring it up to market levels as in % terms in increase is so huge. It will even become larger as oil prices rise.
If there are areas of gross neglect in the fields then yes that will affect future production and will make Iran the big loser in the end, however failing to drill additional wells in a field should not be considered a bad strategy as oil in the ground is oil in the ground. They can always dig wells later and some here at TOD may consider it a prudent mgmt tactic of not overusing tired fields.
Hothgor,
I didn't say Iran wasn't mismanaging their fields, the article made it very clear they were.
I asked you how do you know this is the cause of the decline.
You stated the cause was not geological. How do you know this?
Don't, then, recommend www.energybulletin.net which has many of the articles that discussions start with here, recommend indymedia.org and www.counterpunch.org and www.zmag.org where you can get your Anti-Semitism* with hazlenut-flavored cream in and a sprinkle of nutmeg on top.... excellent pages really....
*Anti-Semitism (n) Dislike of Jews (american - identification of an individual as Jewish, mention, questioning, or discussion of Zionist or Israeli policies or practices, or in many cases the mere mention that Jewish people exist or the utterance of the word 'Jew" - see "Anti-Zionism")
.
.
.
Anti-Zionism - being against Zionism and Zionist actions not necessarily Jews. The distinction between Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism is made outside the USA, inside the USA no distinction is made and the term Anti-Zionism is not known, therefore one can end up in the peculiar situation of being a Zionist at odds with say, Noam Chomsky and considered an Anti-Semite.
OK, THIS PAGE IS RANDOMLY.....choosing on its own whether to put a Reply below the post being Replied to, or at the very bottom of the page. At. Random.
Here's an idea - put the link to post a New Thread ONLY at the very top of the page, and the very bottom of the page, so that in the middle of the page, only Replies are possible, and this random scrambling will be evident and people will know for sure they didn't accidently hit New Thread.
Ever been on a military ship late at night playin' with the radar? The buttons are all shaped differently, round, square, triangle...... at the very basic Dr Seuss level, there's no way that sailor's gonna twist the wrong knob.
Read the reply options. There are two. The "Reply" option replies to the current thread. A thread is defined as starting with any "top level" comment in the comments section. The "Start a New Thread" option starts clear at the bottom.
LRN2RD
GreyZone this page is RANDOMLY putting Replies either below the post they're Replies to, or, AT RANDOM, at the very bottom of the page, making this place even more disjointed and postmodern (and I don't mean that in a good way) than it already was.
I just replied to one of your posts and yep, even though I was very careful, my reply is at the very bottom of the page, puzzling anyone up this late and reading the thing.
This whole format needs to be thrown out and the page needs to be run using the software used by PeakOil.com, this is a better page but they have by far better software.
Have you ever noticed how the quality of the posts on this blog deteriorates during a weekend? Or is it just my imagination?
Pretty consistently true, especially overnight.
Pretty consistently true, especially overnight.
Pretty consistently true, especially overnight.
Pretty consistently true, especially overnight.
Sorry about that! Couldn't get it to post.
Couldn't get it to post.
Hmmmm...
Really? Or is this a prank?
Really--the Post button wouldn't respond, so I kept punching it.
Around 7 am seems to be a period of extremely consistent posts. :-)
I just saw this on the CNN website, IMHO a pretty accurate assessment of the oil situation in Iran, which, as we know, isn't as great as most seem to think:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/25/iran.oil.ap/index.html
Pretty surprising stuff for the MSM, especially given the direction things seem to be headed...
Iran May Run Out of Oil Exports as Soon as 2014, Study Says
Scary Stuff and Pretty hard to tell what is going on.
According to this blog, the PNAS report is not officially out yet and an earlier report by Stern touts large reserves.
According to this other blog:
P.S.
None other than the New York Times is starting to wake up to the energy "crisis". Post your comments to the NYT here.
My comment was that they should establish a specific section on the Environment or Energy, rather than make one search through the Science section to find relevant articles. This subject surely is equivalent in importance to, say, the Style section.
This issue, especially as it relates to global warming should be kept above the fold, or at least on the front page.
Also, after the media tires a bit from anointing the likes of Hillary Clinton, maybe they could ask her a few intelligent and informed questions about what she will do to solve our energy problems while, at the same time, saving us from disastrous global warming. Thus far, she has refused to commit herself to serious action on CAFE standards and does not support a lower speed limit because it would be "inconvenient for some". Well, isn't that special?
Further, does anyone have a clue as to what Barack Obama's specific positions are on energy related issues? No doubt he, like everyone, is fully supportive of renewable energy. The problem, of course, is that much of what is called renewable isn't all that renewable and may be counterproductive.
I should say, however that the following is not a bad first effort on Obama's part; it just needs more publicity.
http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/sgw_marcher.asp?428420
He does, however, place too much hope in biofuels, especially E85. Too bad he doesn't realize what a scam it is, as it lets the auto makes pretend they are meeting CAFE starndards.
The Economic Disconnect:
At the same time that some news outlets are reporting about Iran's "staggering" declines, others are sending out the "don't worry, be happy" message:
There is a clear disconnect between what the "financial" experts are predicting and what the geologists are predicting. But then again, we all know that this is all just some silly "above ground" horse play. In the end, Mother Nature will be kind to us. We are made in her image.
Read more of this happy-times news at the Chicago Tribune here.
GreyZone - I don't think I'd have much success getting much of anyone to agree with me, and have had a hard time getting myself to see things from this perspective.
Think of the old joke, "To err is human, to really screw up requires a computer". There's only so much trouble you can get into as a basic human being. You have a very limited amount of power, hunter-gatherers were not developing atom bombs or holding Inquisitions, or doing some "oopsie" on the freeway that ends up killing/maiming many.
Very very hard to think otherwise than the Progress Is Good religion most of us were raised in. I don't think very many people are going to want to go out and live like bare-assed Aborigines, almost all people are going to do exactly what they are doing now - using all the oil they can, living as artificially as they can, and doing it until they can't possibly do it any more.
Hello TODers,
Not just the Commander-in-Chief, The Decider, but now the Redacter-in-Chief?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jayne-lyn-stahl/falling-between-the-crack_...
I wanted to say xxxxxxxxxx, but they made me remove xxxxxxx, and xxxxxx, and of course, this xxxxxxxxxxx.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
Let's assume for the moment that KSA has truly clamped down on the info about its oilfields; the CIA, KGB, MI-6, MOSSAD, etc, etc, have no idea on the true info transparency of Ghawar, production rates, and excess supply capability... and so on.
If 'Those with the Gold Rule'... what would it take to get them to agree to release this info, and would it be worth it?
If the Saudi rulers were willing to trade this info for Hawaii-- would we agree? If KSA, and or OPEC, agreed to let the world's best geologists, scientists, economists, etc fully and continuously assess the Middle East-- what is worth the trade? Should we give them a clear title to Switzerland, or Manhattan Island, or Idaho? The keys to Fort Knox?
If the world could truly know, to a high degree of accuracy, when the Hubbert Downslope ride begins: would this finally jumpstart worldwide mitigation efforts?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"If the world could truly know, to a high degree of accuracy, when the Hubbert Downslope ride begins: would this finally jumpstart worldwide mitigation efforts?"
Yes it would.
Hello TODers,
Advocating for Turkmenistan Revolution?[Does this guy eat sushi, too?]
http://en.rian.ru/world/20061226/57828007.html
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The spokesman told RIA Novosti that Khudaiberdy Orazov, the leader of the Vatan (Homeland) movement, currently living in Sweden, is "a real patriot," intolerant of the authoritarian regime and is capable of "reforming Turkmenistan into a modern democratic state with a developed economy."
Orazov, whom the Turkmen Prosecutor General's Office accuses of embezzlement, told a news conference in Kiev earlier that the opposition Union of Turkmenistan's Democratic Forces will seek democracy in Turkmenistan by all means, and that a revolution is not ruled out.
"If the incumbent authorities do not respond to the international community's appeal and do not give Turkmenistan an opportunity for democratic development, the opposition will naturally boost its activities and seek the overthrow of this regime," Orazov said.
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If this guy is not protected by secret agents, I expect the 'Tom Clancy effect' to be homing in on him. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?