With regard to the last entry, I'm wondering if we'll see any mashups posted to such sites as You Tube... and how mashed up climate change will render things.

How about a duet with oil production? (steel drum?) FF concerto?

"Scientists predict that our planet will warm by at least another 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This additional warming would produce a series of notes beyond the range of human hearing." ~ A Song of Our Warming Planet

"If a tree falls in a forest..."

From the climate change real estate boom article.

"In the United States alone, New York, New Orleans, Chicago, Miami, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle and many other cities face the risk of whole neighborhoods becoming uninhabitable because of climate change."

Chicago is next to Lake Michigan, 577 feet above sea level. It does not belong on that list.

And at the top of the drumbeat we have the Duh! quote of the month...

"“The train was not completely immobilized,” said Ed McCallum, a spokesman for the Ottawa-based agency." A week of diligent study and you already have figured out out that the train rolled down hill because the brakes were not on. Would this Ottawa place by any chance be the seat of Canadian Government?

(that is a rhetorical question, by the way)

Re: Why is killer diesel still poisoning our air

I'm pretty sure that diesel particulates are a serious problem but I'm not sure about the numbers they are citing here:

This is a serious matter. Tiny particulates, one of the two most serious pollutants emitted from car exhausts, are officially calculated to kill 29,000 people a year, over 10 times as many as die in car accidents, in a toll only exceeded by smoking. And the Government’s Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollution has also suggested that they may play a part in 200,000 more deaths.

Here is a table excerpted from Wikipedia listing US traffic fatalities and showing that fatalities seem to have peaked in 2005 at a bit over 43,500 deaths and it seems there has been a very significant drop since.
Perhaps some can can explain what I'm missing? Is 29,000 deaths due to diesel particulates a typo? Do they mean 290,000, which is approximately 10 times the 2012 statistic?

Motor vehicle deaths in U.S. by year[edit]

year	deaths	vehicle miles traveled (v.m.t.)(billions)	fatalities per 100 million v.m.t.	population	fatalities per 100,000 population	%change
2004	42,836	2,965	1.44	293,638,158	14.63	-0.52%
2005	43,510	2,989	1.46	296,507,061	14.72	0.44%
2006	42,708	3,014	1.42	299,398,484	14.31	-2.79%
2007	41,259	3,031	1.36	301,139,947	13.70	-3.85%
2008	37,423	2,977	1.26	303,824,640	12.31	-11.0%
2009	33,883	2,957	1.15	306,700,000	11.05	-9.7%
2010 [1]	32,885	2,967	1.11	308,745,538	10.6511	-3.8%
2011 [3][4]	32,367	2,930	1.10	311,591,917	10.3876	-2.5%
2012 (9 mo)[4]	25,580		1.16	314,395,013[5]	10.8483 (pro-rated over 12 mo.)	+4.4% (pro-rated over 12 mo.)

2010 Detailed Statistics[edit]
The following table summarizes the number of people killed and injured in fatal collisions by month in 2010. The table does not include injuries resulting from incidents in which no fatalities occurred.^[6]

Daily pictures at search engine Bing today - oil tankers - including a storm video

Sen. Boxer Sets Committee Hearing On Climate Change

At the helm of the Environment and Public Works Committee, Boxer invited Republicans to submit any evidence they liked into the official Senate record, as Republicans brandished charts showing that atmospheric warming has slowed recently.

Dianna Furchtgott-Roth, an economist at the conservative Manhattan Institute think tank, said even if the planet is warming, it would be cheaper to control the sun's radiation through "geo-engineering" and "solar radiation management" that "diminishes the warmth of the sun's rays" than to cut back on fossil fuels.

Boxer said the Manhattan Institute has received $2 million from the Koch Foundation, set up by Koch Industries, a privately held oil and gas conglomerate.

Art installation brings you face to face with fracking

Fracking hell or fracking bliss? Fracking Futures, an art installation at Liverpool's FACT gallery, gives visitors a chance to decide what they think of this controversial gas extraction technique. Its miniaturised fracking "rig" simulates the sounds, tremors and flames that a real one might produce, and appears to drill right through the gallery floor.

... So what would it be like to have a fracking rig in your back yard? Put on your hard hat and enter the darkened gallery, and you immediately experience a sense of unease. The noise hits you hard, a pounding rhythmic bass sending vibrations right through you. Suddenly the red rig lights up and the drill rotates down through the rubble-strewn floor. The noise crescendoes, like a jet taking off, and metallic hammering accompanies the sinister smoke rising out of the drill hole. And then, as quickly as it started, it all stops. Forlorn bird cries ring out across a pool of effluent, and random methane flares hit you with a dry wall of heat.

Air Force weighs 'slant drilling' to tap offshore oil from Vandenberg

The U.S. Air Force will consider leasing land on Vandenberg Air Force Base for private companies to extract offshore oil and gas from land-based drills on the central California coast.

Sunset Exploration and Exxon Mobil recently asked the Air Force to review their proposal to use the technology for an oil and gas drilling project on the base near Lompoc, Air Force officials said Wednesday.

The proposal, opposed by environmental groups, would require the first new offshore lease in state waters since the 1960s, said Mark Meier, chief counsel for the State Lands Commission. It would allow companies to use onshore equipment with extended-reach "slant drilling" technology to reach offshore deposits.

U.S. law allows the military to lease land for oil development, and Vandenberg has five active oil wells, Air Force officials said.

CIA spooks investigate geoengineering to fix climate

This week in Washington DC, a panel of experts convened by the NAS met for the first time to embark on a study that will consider the risks and benefits of engineering solutions to dangerous climate change by sequestering away carbon dioxide or reflecting solar radiation back out into space.

... the CIA's main interest in geoengineering does not lie in any offensive use. Rather, the US intelligence community sees climate change as a potential threat to global geopolitical stability, and so wants a thorough analysis of the mitigation options. ... the main focus of the final report, due in the second half of 2014, will be a scientific assessment of the feasibility of three or four proposed geogineering technologies

Defkalion http://defkalion-energy.com/ will be streaming a demo of their LENR reactor on Monday and Tuesday. http://new.livestream.com/triwu2 This is part of their presentation at ICCF 18, where they are discussing their theories. They will have a live in person demo at NiWeek in August.

They will be showing their R5 reactor which they claim produces 4.5KW of thermal energy. Once pre-heated, the reactor only needs a spark at about 1Hz to keep running; the claimed COP is over 25. The device can run for 6 months before needing a recharge. Specifications are posted on their website.

They say they are working with existing energy companies on a broad range of applications, some already have reactors to work with. The first applications should be on the market in about a year.

State department approves pipeline to Canada. No, it's not Keystone XL

A 430-mile-long pipeline from North Dakota to Alberta was approved by the US State Department Wednesday. The so-called Vantage Pipeline, not to be confused with Keystone XL, will mark the first time that liquids from North Dakota's reservoirs will flow into existing Albertan infrastructure.

Construction of the pipeline segment inside Canada has already been under way for some time, according to reports ... it is to carry ethane from the Bakken formation in North Dakota, through Saskatchewan, to Empress, Alberta.

North Dakota is rich in ethane and other natural gas liquids but it has limited export capacity for these commodities, and ethane in particular, said Justin Kringstad, who directs the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

Pipeline to be altered to ship Ohio shale gas to Midwest

One of the largest natural gas pipelines built in the United States will be made bidirectional to transport natural gas from Ohio to the Midwest and potentially to the West.

The Rockies Express Pipeline, called REX, previously was used to ship natural gas from Colorado and Wyoming to Ohio. But the shale boom in Ohio and Pennsylvania has reduced the demand for natural gas shipped east in the pipeline.

A forest will store carbon for free, it needs no fancy factories, and people running round digging holes, and spreading charcoal. If biochar is a simple solution, then surely just converting some unproductive land to forest would do the same job simpler, and for less costs, with the added advantage of producing oxygen as well.

It doesn't require fancy technology, and new unproven theories, and lots of money, which is probably why it gets far less attention then something gimmicky like biochar.

This comment is not directly relevant to any drumbeat news but has more to do with this site gearing down. I registered as a user a bit over 7 years ago although I was a lurker for some time before that. I became interested in Peak Oil in 2003 and IMO pretty much all things relevant were discussed many years ago. The site will be missed but it has served it's purpose and the time has come to move on. Farewell TOD and may you join LATOC in the greener pastures.

I personally ditched IT as a career path and became a fisherman. Hard work but a lot less stress (most of the time). I'm in pretty good shape and still looking at the world's economic slide with doomer's eyes. So far we are on track with the worst case scenarios (slow collapse, heavy infrastructure decay while people remain ignorant of the seriousness of the 'economic decline').

I might not check back but felt like saying some kind of goodbye to the site although I'm not aware of any friends I might have made here :) In any case my life should be reasonably well covered - crash or no crash.

Re. from above: "WTI Crude Exceeds Brent for First Time in Almost Three Years" by Moming Zhou

Improved pipeline networks and the use of rail links are helping to ease the North American oil glut created by rising production of crude from shale formations.

Because transporting oil by train is more expensive than pipeline, the price of WTI must be depressed to make it profitable to ship by train. The use of rail is not easing the glut. The glut has been relieved because the oil coming from Canada has been reduced by flooding last month. If EIA data was published promptly instead of with a 3 month delay, one could see Canadian imports into the U.S. have decreased.

The EIA's opinion from Short-Term Energy Outlook: Market Prices and Uncertainty Report, July 9, 2013:

WTI prices resumed their strengthening trend against Brent prices in June. The Brent-WTI spread settled at $4.52 per barrel on July 3, the narrowest level for the differential since January 2011 (Figure 2). However, this spread may not be reflecting the cost of transporting the marginal barrel of crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the U.S. Gulf Coast. An uptick in PADD 2 refinery runs, with the utilization rate in the Midwest reaching 90.7 percent for the week ending June 28, combined with issues affecting Canadian crude oil production and pipeline transportation may be diverting crude oil from Cushing to other parts of the United States Midcontinent. This can also be observed in the strength of Bakken prices compared to WTI prices in June. When refineries began increasing runs and the initial supply outages occurred, Bakken spot prices moved higher first and settled at an average premium to WTI of $3.05 per barrel for the five-day average ending June 14. Then, as some refineries in the Midwest came out of turn-around, WTI prices moved higher as well.

Looking at the Brent-WTI spread along the futures curve, the difference between the two benchmarks increases to reach about $7 per barrel by the end of the first quarter of 2014 and levels off at about $8 per barrel in 2015 (Figure 3). The increase in the spread along the futures curve shows that the further narrowing of this differential may only be temporary and has mainly been driven by the specific short-term supply and demand developments cited above rather than by the complete resolution of bottlenecks affecting inland crude transportation.

A Shuffle of Aluminum, but to Banks, Pure Gold

Hundreds of millions of times a day, thirsty Americans open a can of soda, beer or juice. And every time they do it, they pay a fraction of a penny more because of a shrewd maneuver by Goldman Sachs and other financial players that ultimately costs consumers billions of dollars.

… Only a tenth of a cent or so of an aluminum can’s purchase price can be traced back to the strategy. But multiply that amount by the 90 billion aluminum cans consumed in the United States each year —and add the tons of aluminum used in things like cars, electronics and house siding —and the efforts by Goldman and other financial players has cost American consumers more than $5 billion over the last three years, say former industry executives, analysts and consultants.

… Using special exemptions granted by the Federal Reserve Bank and relaxed regulations approved by Congress, the banks have bought huge swaths of infrastructure used to store commodities and deliver them to consumers —from pipelines and refineries in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas; to fleets of more than 100 double-hulled oil tankers at sea around the globe; to companies that control operations at major ports like Oakland, Calif., and Seattle.

… Before Goldman bought Metro International three years ago, warehouse customers used to wait an average of six weeks for their purchases to be located, retrieved by forklift and delivered to factories. But now that Goldman owns the company, the wait has grown more than 20-fold —to more than 16 months, according to industry records.

… Because Metro International charges rent each day for the stored metal, the long queues caused by shifting aluminum among its facilities means larger profits for Goldman. And because storage cost is a major component of the “premium” added to the price of all aluminum sold on the spot market, the delays mean higher prices for nearly everyone, even though most of the metal never passes through one of Goldman’s warehouses.

… “It’s a totally artificial cost,” said one of them, Jorge Vazquez, managing director at Harbor Aluminum Intelligence,a commodities consulting firm. “It’s a drag on the economy. Everyone pays for it.”

… At the same time, JPMorgan, which also controls metal warehouses, began seeking approval of a plan that would ultimately allow it, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, a large money management firm, to buy 80 percent of the copper available on the market on behalf of investors and hold it in warehouses. The firms have told regulators that these stockpiles,which would be used to back new copper exchange-traded funds, would not affect copper prices. But manufacturers and copper wholesalers warned that the arrangement would squeeze the market and send prices soaring. They asked the S.E.C. to reject the proposal.

After an intensive lobbying campaign by the banks, Mary L. Schapiro, the S.E.C.’s chairwoman, approved the new copper funds last December, during her final days in office. S.E.C. officials said they believed the funds would track the price of copper, not propel it, and concurred with the firms’ contention —disputed by some economists —that reducing the amount of copper on the market would not drive up prices

Peak Oil is dead! Long live Peak Oil!

_{Noah Smith, Noahpinion, Wednesday, July 17, 2013}

One of my favorite websites, The Oil Drum, is shutting down, and I am mad! Everyone is attributing the shutdown to the death of the "Peak Oil" meme, which in turn is attributed to fracking. The first is probably true; Peak Oil mania is over. But the second is false. Fracking has not killed Peak Oil. It just hasn't fit the narratives that many of the Peak Oilers spun.

The thesis of Peak Oil is simple: Global oil production will soon peak and begin to decline. But there were two possible stories that the Peak Oilers told about how this would happen:

"Good Peak Oil": In this case, we find something that's better than oil, and switch to that, just like we once transitioned away from whale oil. In this case, oil prices and production would both fall.

"Bad Peak Oil": In this case, we don't find something better than oil, and as oil becomes more scarce, the price would go up, while oil production and overall economic activity both contracted.

What we got was neither of these. Or more accurately, we got a little bit of both, coupled with something else that doesn't fit with either story. What happened was this:

AFN condemns nutritional experiments on aboriginal children

Resolution says experiments reflect a pattern of genocide

_{CBC News, Posted: Jul 18, 2013 4:45 PM CT}

The Assembly of First Nations has unanimously passed an emergency resolution condemning nutritional experiments done on aboriginal people including children in residential schools in the 1940s and 1950s.

Delegates stood and wiped away tears as they passed the resolution Thursday afternoon at the AFN’s annual meeting in Whitehorse.

The resolution states the experiments "reveal Crown conduct reflecting a pattern of genocide against aboriginal peoples."

Indian Residential Schools Truth and Reconciliation Commission

Indian Residential Schools date back to the 1870’s. The policy behind the government funded, church-run schools attempted to “kill the Indian in the child”. Over 130 residential schools were located across the country, with the last one closing in 1996.

More than 150,000 First Nations, Métis and Inuit children were taken from their families and placed in these schools. Many were forbidden to speak their language and practice their own culture. Today, there are an estimated 80,000 former students still living.

I used to think we Canadians were generally good and decent!

The relevance of the above posts to discussions here at TOD... Pipelines!

Always worthwhile reading the comments at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog...

A chunk of ice 25 times size of Manhattan breaks off NE Greenland

Yes, that is one big chunk of ice -- and it broke off quite rapidly. Good idea to use it as a condition sentinel from here on out.

Nasa Worldview overlays a distance scale; according to that, 83.9 km x 31.9 km = 2205 km2 (or 851 sq miles, 25.2 Manhattan Islands)

Not really on topic, but, like TOD, she tried to provide a little clarity.

Pioneering US journalist Helen Thomas dies at 92

Ms Thomas covered the administrations of 10 presidents and was known for asking difficult questions.

She was a fixture at White House news conferences and considered a pioneer for women in journalism.

Here's to asking hard questions.

For Alan:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/business/global/hauling-new-treasure-a...

Rgds WP

Steve From Virginia has posted his latest Monday Mayhem at Economic Undertow: this is a Drumbeat replacement:
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2013/07/21/monday-mayhem-ii/

Egypt’s future crude oil import requirements for 3 population scenarios

Egypt sits on a key strategic location between North Africa and the Middle East, where almost 4 mb/d of oil transit through the Sumed pipeline and the Suez canal.

20 years after its oil peak this country is now embroiled in a serious energy crunch. Crude oil production will decline between 3 and 4 % pa while population may grow from 80 million to 100 million by 2030. It is in the world’s interest to make sure that Egypt does not descend into chaos which will impact not only on global oil markets but also on neighbouring countries. This will require to help Egypt with importing crude oil. Here are some simple calculations what kind of quantities would be involved:

Conclusion:

Whoever comes to power now faces the same situation. If the problem of fuel shortages in Egypt cannot be resolved by oil imports, violence may impact on other countries and there is the prospect of one the world’s chokepoints in serious danger. In the end there will be no other choice than OPEC supplying as much oil as is needed to keep Egypt going, on credit or at discounted rates. That oil of course will not be available to those who thought they can always buy oil for their pleasure.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-07-19/egypt-s-future-crude-oil-im...

My sister and her family have been in my neck of the woods, on vacation from the UK, for the past three weeks so, I've been sort of busy/distracted. The conversion of TOD to a static archive was announced days after they arrived so I haven't really commented on that yet. I find it somewhat ironic that the deactivation of TOD is being heralded as a sign that Peak Oil is dead just as it seems to me that PO is becoming undeniable. Just a couple of quick signs:

Detroit files for bankruptcy.
No plausible excuse AFAICT for oil rising from $95 to $108 over the past month

Here are a few stories from my local rag that add to the mix one way or another:

Jamaica and the Panama Canal

Now that the canal is being expanded to accommodate much larger 'Post-Panamax' vessels by doubling the capacity of the waterway by 2015, the same expectations that Jamaica stands to benefit have come up. The expansion project will create demand for ports that can handle these super-sized Post-Panamax ships. Miami and a number of other ports on the US Eastern seaboard are already ready, having done the necessary upgrades.

Using remarkably similar language to the Handbook of Jamaica 100 years ago, current Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Anthony Hylton says the Logistics Hub Project will allow Jamaica to take full economic advantage of the opportunities presented by the widening of the Panama Canal.

Now, this commenter calling himself "Peak Oiler", obviously a TOD reader, gets in the following stab for PO

If world oil production does not increase significantly over the next few years, as is suggested by a select few analysts, contradicting the current hyperbole surrounding recent increases in "tight oil" production in the US, the world economy will not grow. To the contrary, it will contract and there will be less shipping and less need for all these facilities.

Next up:

Transport costs taking toll

Highways must play a significant role in our development process, but the rising cost of the toll will defeat the purpose if the average motorist is unable to afford it.....[snip]

It was my understanding from news reports at the time that the Portmore area should have been developed with a railway operating from Hellshire to Kingston This would have been run similar to a subway, but in its wisdom, the Government scrapped the plan.

Most modern cities have such systems for mass transport and even millionaires use them, as long as they are reliable. Maybe we are asking too much of investors, and that is why they are not attracted to the proposal to reintroduce the system. Since what is left is rusting away and a temptation to scrap-metal thieves, why not give the contract to a serious investor at a peppercorn lease for 25 years before trying to skin them with taxes? A passenger service from May Pen and Linstead into Kingston could minimise the congestion on the road, creating employment and lowering the country's fuel bill.

Again in the comments section this "Peak Oiler" character gets in another stab for PO including the following:

The peaking and decline of world oil production will continue to result in increases in transportation costs. 97% of US transportation is fuelled by petroleum products and they have some mass transit networks that are electrically driven so, it must be even higher in Jamaica.

Oil free transport is a topic that has not been discussed in Jamaica recently, as far as I am aware. Since we do no produce oil, maybe we should be discussing it.

Then:

EDITORIAL - Lessons from Detroit

How Detroit, once one of America's leading industrial towns, and Jamaica came to this pass should make interesting case studies. Moreover, the likely effect of Detroit's bankruptcy filing should be a matter to which those Jamaican stakeholders who would resist public sector and pension reforms pay close attention.

Like Jamaica, Detroit has, for too long, suffered from bad government and poor economic management, which exacerbated the loss of competitive advantage by the city's motor manufacturers.

There was a time, though, when the vibrancy of the city's motor industry masked the shortcomings and the city offered its employees generous pensions and insurance. When there was no longer the income to meet these obligations, the city, like Jamaica, borrowed to cover the expense.

Again this "Peak Oiler" dude rips into the comments with a PO related comment.

Finally an AP syndicated story on Detroit:

Why can't Detroit make a comeback?

So why can't the Motor City use bankruptcy to transform itself in the same way? Unfortunately for Detroit, it's not that simple. Automakers were able to shed most of their problems in bankruptcy court and come out leaner and more competitive.

The city can get rid of its gargantuan debt, but a bankruptcy judge can't bring back residents or raise its dwindling revenue.

"In General Motors, at least you could have this dream about there being increased revenues in the future," said Douglas Baird, a bankruptcy law professor at the University of Chicago.

"It's much harder to do that in the case of a city like Detroit because it doesn't sell a product."

"Peak Oiler's" comment:

In my opinion Detroit is the poster child for "Peak Oil". While their has been much ado over recent surges in US oil production in the US press of late, declaring the concept of Peak Oil dead, the fact is that at some point production of oil will no longer increase year after year but, will instead go into decline. One of the signs of the peaking of world oil production is a significant run up in prices coinciding with some amount of difficulty in increasing output in response to increasing prices, as is being experienced now.

Detroit is a "one trick pony" with it's economy very heavily dependent on automobile manufacturing and with increasing fuel costs precipitating a decline in car sales in most major markets outside China and India it is difficult to envisage a turn around for Detroit. Next in line is probably the area around the Boeing aircraft assembly facilities, when passenger airliner sales tank, as they invariably will. Remember when it happens that, I predicted it.

I find it surreal that at the same all this Peak Oil is dead news is coming out, this newspaper is publishing comments by someone calling themselves "Peak Oiler", that mention the words Peak Oil over and over and over again. Of course, maybe they're just making fun of him.

Alan from the islands

Don't think this has been covered here:

Economists forecast the end of growth

Last year Grantham issued his stunning but little-known verdict that previous US GDP growth rates of 3% a year are now "gone forever." Future US growth will eventually approximate:

"1.4% a year, and adjusted growth about 0.9%... The bottom line for US real growth, according to our forecast, is 0.9% a year through 2030, decreasing to 0.4% from 2030 to 2050."

He adds that Prof Gordon and others have failed to account for the role of "tightening resource constraints" and "environmental costs that increase at an accelerating rate"

In other words, economists (always the last to recognise reality) are seeing that average growth predictions have at least halved. That of course means lower interest rates, less capital, and less chance of funding the necessary changes.

It also means recessions should be considered the new normal.

The only thing I don't think they have truly recognised is that there is one major source of productivity growth left - the widescale automation of jobs. Companies get richer through first offshoring and then automation - whilst unemployment grows and the poor get more revolting.

What was that about slow gradual decline again?